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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/28/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Mr Gresham
(10/28/00; 23:44:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 40197)
Mehrling on Minsky quoted by Noland -- Don't MIss!
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
(Noland:) Since Dr. Mehrling does such a wonderful job expounding Minsky thinking, better to let him do it in his own words. I've excerpted four paragraphs from his exceptional 23-page paper.
(Mehrling)"In these (capitalist) economies, so (Minsky) seems to have thought, financial processes take on a life of their own, so that their logic effectively becomes the logic of finance. In Minsky's own early words: "Capitalism is essentially a financial system, and the peculiar behavioral attributes of a capitalist economy center around the impact of finance upon system behavior" (Minsky, 1967). This is the core insight that underlies all of Minsky's work, and distinguishes his work from that of other economists. According to Minsky, we need to understand finance not because it is an important part of our modern economy, but because it is the very heart and motive force of that economy."
(Mehrling) "Generally speaking, the tendency is to move from robust finance to fragile finance – this is the Financial Instability Hypothesis – and this is so because in a world of uncertainly, especially endogenous uncertainty, expectations about the future have little objective foundation so that mistakes are inevitable. To be sure, economic units have their own understanding of how the economy works – they have a ‘model of a model’ as Minsky liked to say – that they use to form expectations about future cash flows. The important point is that any attempt to forecast which of the myriad possible futures will actually be realized come down to an attempt to forecast the forecast of one's fellow economic units. Concretely, the cash commitments of each unit depend on the cash commitments of every other unit. The whole web of interlocking commitments is like a bridge we spin collectively out into the unknown future toward shores not yet visible. Mere ideas about the future become realities as they become embedded in financial relations, but inevitably over time the reality embodied in the pattern of cash commitments diverges from the reality embodied in the pattern of cash flows. Inevitably our ideas about the future are wrong, even when we all agree, indeed especially when we all agree. Just so, widespread belief in the 1960's that economists had learned to tame economic fluctuation led units to the ‘euphoric’ view that future cash commitments were relatively unproblematic, and once this view became embedded in the structure of debt contracts, it became a constraint on future action. The bridge of commitments reaches far out into the future as units (understandably) mistake their common model of reality for reality itself. Robust finance gives way to fragile finance as ‘margins of safety’ are eroded and commitments leave less and less room for possible shortfalls of cash flow."
*Mehrling) "In Minsky's vision, business cycle fluctuations of employment and income are mere surface manifestations of the deeper fluctuation in financial conditions along the scale from robust to fragile and back again. Like Schumpeter, Minsky understood fluctuation as the way in which the capitalist system grows, but for Minsky the underlying process was not absorption of technological change but rather the expansion and validation of financial commitments. What worried Minsky was the prospect that, left to its own devices, the financial system would operate to amplify rather than to absorb the naturally cyclical process of growth, as each commitment provides the support for others on the way up, and as default on some commitments undermines other commitments on the way down."
("Mehrling) "One might think that asset prices are the most obvious symptom (of financial conditions turning from one of balance to imbalance), but Minsky focused first on what he viewed as the more direct symptoms that appear in the mechanism of refinance. By definition, speculative financing arrangements require periodic refinance, at which point both borrowers and lenders get to take a second look at the balance between the borrower's future cash flows and future cash commitments in light of the changed financial conditions in the economy as a whole. Any evolution toward fragile finance is therefore bound to show up as increasing difficulty rolling over debts as they mature, difficulty that may manifest itself in various ways depending on the institutional framework, but which ultimately shows up as increased demand for bank lending because banks are the lenders of last resort to non-financial economic units. Significantly, banks are themselves speculative financing units that face their own problems of refinance both because of their extreme leverage and because of the short-term character of their liabilities. Thus, the ability of banks to help other units refinance depends on their ability to refinance their own positions. Problems of refinance generally are thus bound to show up as problems of bank refinance particularly. It follows that one way to track the state of financial conditions is to keep a close eye on the operation of the mechanism through which banks refinance their activities."
Noland: Talk about "hitting the nail on the head!" "Any evolution toward fragile finance is therefore bound to show up as increasing difficulty rolling over debts as they mature…"
ThaiGold
(10/28/00; 22:31:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 40196)
Monetary Chairs
Attn: Humble Pie (10/28/00; 22:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 40193)
Humble Pie:
Wasn't the Chair for Monetary Theory replaced by the more
enjoyable game of Musical Monetary Chairs.?. By Clinton.
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
ThaiGold
(10/28/00; 22:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 40195)
Fickle POG
Attn: Humble Pie (10/28/00; 22:05:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 40192)
Humble Pie:
You summed it up well, by writing:
"As long as corruption seems to be the feature of the day,
there is little hope for paper of any sort."
==============================
But along the same (market/government/corruption) lines,
the most difficult thing of all, is to convince a GoldBug that
his Gold is worth only what the government allows it to be.
Regards,
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
Humble Pie
(10/28/00; 22:20:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 40194)
Monetary theory
----I think This forum at USA Gold is the next best thing to a chair on monetary theory, What say you fellow posters ,lurkers? How about it. Lets hear some comment.You to Trail Guide.
Humble Pie
(10/28/00; 22:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 40193)
Monterary theory
====Roosvelt prohibited the teachings of monetary theory in this country, and today there is no chair for monetary theory anywhere,not even in Switzerland.Why?Because no government wants its people to know the truth.
Humble Pie
(10/28/00; 22:05:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 40192)
Repost of # 40164 that got screwed up
---To yhe central bankers of the world, without whose cooperation the manipulation of POG ,curriences,etc would not been possible.Lets not forget the billions of victoms of inflation who ,by obeying the law are punished by the law.As long as corruption seems to be the feature of the day,there is little hope for paper of any sort.Fredrich Knapp a long dead Prussian economist beleived that money was an instrument of state order,that its value reflected the public's attitude toward the state,and that--given man's failings and thus the state's--the only road a currency can go is down.
Al Fulchino
(10/28/00; 22:01:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 40191)
ET (10/28/00; 21:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 40188
Bravo, good Man! Excellent article <Fear of Gore>. The writer understands well. As do you....at least "somewhat" as you say <grin>.
Hopefully that part that you don't agree with is not to significant of a difference.
Ciao
Al Fulchino
(10/28/00; 21:48:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 40190)
Journeyman (10/28/00; 17:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 40174
Dear Good Man,
Lots of good stuff there. Lots. And I suspect, in the end, you and I would not only be able to do business on nothing more than a handshake, but share many of the same ideas, and concerns for our families when all was said and done.
Also I didn't take your comments as venting, but thanks for caring. <smile>
Lastly. I am in full agreement about the poor man's nukes. And if you are concerned, I would recommend a book by Joel Skousen....LIFE AFTER DOOMSDAY...there may be others like his book, but this one details likely fallout patterns and safe places to reside in...or should I say, expected safer places.
Regards.
Humble Pie
(10/28/00; 21:44:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 40189)
Repost of # 40164 that got screwed up
---- To the central banks of the world,without whose cooperation the manipulation of the POG,curriences,etc,would not been possible.Lets not forget the billions of victoms of inflation who, by obeying the law are punished by the law. AS LONG AS
ET
(10/28/00; 21:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 40188)
Al
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/buchananfailed.html
Hey Al - here is an intellectual that somewhat agrees with you.
From the article;
"Fear of Gore." This factor is no small matter. The Gore regime would be worse than the
Clinton administration: even more fanatically socialistic and steely eyed, with even less
connection to the real America. Gore is capable of demolishing what remains of the rule of
law to impose his egalitarian, environmentalist, thought-control agenda, and he is an
aggressive imperialist to boot. Bush, in the old phrase, is the lesser of two evils. But a lesser
of two evils is dramatically lesser when the alternative is social, cultural, and political ruin.
The better years to run 3rd party were 1996 and 1992, when the stakes weren't seen as
enormous.
The Invisible Hand
(10/28/00; 21:34:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 40187)
ECB will cope with stock and bond market chaos next week
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk
From the business section of tomorrow's London Sunday Times
ECB strains to revive the euro
Kirstie Hamilton
...
The ECB is also preparing to cope with stock and bond market chaos next week if Iraq carries out its threat to suspend oil exports. Iraq has demanded that its oil exports should be priced in euros rather than dollars, but so far the United Nations has resisted. Iraq has set a deadline of November 1. If it does suspend oil exports, the oil price is likely to rise sharply, sending share prices down.
...
auspec
(10/28/00; 21:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 40186)
GATA Pledge/ Reg Howe vs BIS
As a follow up msg#: 40184 you may make a pledge to GATA to support their BIS law suit at www.GATAComm@aol.com.
Thank you again.
Al Fulchino
(10/28/00; 21:19:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 40185)
Journeyman/Netking
"libertarianism is really just hedonism in disguise &
carries within it the seeds of its own destruction. Libertarianism is fundamentally a "Trojan Horse" of human/moral entropy and has always shown
itself to be such." -Netking msg:# 40139
Gentlemen.
And you both are. I hear where Netking is coming from. There IS and element of the Libertarian party that is hedonistic. Case in point a prominent Boston talk show host, who espouses all manner of wonderful ideas, but also cloaks his own immoral behavior under this tent. Now do I believe all Libertarians are hedonsitic? Certainly not. But he is not the only member to rationalize his personal actions with Libertarian sing song. And Netking has captured in his writing a very important aspect of that party's being.
auspec
(10/28/00; 21:09:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 40184)
The Battle Draweth Nigh!!!!!!!
Hello to the Faithful!
Word is now in from GATA that a large battle looms dead ahead, excitement on the horizon. Our resourceful and ever present enemy has let their guard down, giving THE CAUSE opportunity for the long awaited victory. We must fund this campaign fully in order to send forth Knight Reginald Howe to his predestined triumph. Please join us in sending coin to this worthwhile endeavor at the following address;
Gold anti-Trust Action Committee, Inc.
c/o Chris Powell Sec/Treas
7 Villa Louisa Rd.
Manchester Conn. 06043-7541
Donations are tax deductible, please be generous. ACTION it will be!!! Thank you in advance.
Al Fulchino
(10/28/00; 21:06:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 40183)
RossL
RossL (10/27/00; 23:11:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 40135)
Al
Libertarianism is the psychology of freedom. It is LIBERTY.
First, I am a libertarian. I am not a republican. I will not vote for "w"
Second, I ask you what exactly would be wrong if the US were to split up into independently governed political zones that honored the constitutional interstate free trade provisions.
Ross, How are you? First of all, we already have 50 independently governed political zones. Are they messed up some? Yes. But there is already a good framework with which to work. Certainly better than anything else the rest of the world has to offer. If Libertarians would take their good ideas and their energy and help stave of the enemy from within, they would have many more years with which to advance their cause. Unfortunately, they, in my mind have gotten caught up with how right they are and forgot the price that could easily be paid if Al Jr gets in.
Further, there are enough Libertarians to make their presence known in a small state. Why not do what so many people in the past have done? Move there. And demonstrate what it is you wish, all the while at least keeping the Gore's of the world from ruining what is left our freedom.
Best wishes. And there will be only a semblance of Real Liberty if we do not buy time now.
justamereBear
(10/28/00; 20:45:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 40182)
Turkey Hunter
I do hope that I am not intruding on a private conversation re your question in 40168.
It occurs to me that there is another option that a foreign holder of US dollars might be interested in. (s)he might want to buy his own currency, after all, that is where he buys his groceries. OR gold.
Chris Powell
(10/28/00; 20:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 40181)
Help GATA sue the BIS
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/570
This may be the best vehicle for
catching all gold's enemies in one
place and bringing them to account.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Chris Powell
(10/28/00; 20:20:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 40180)
Reg Howe says BIS may defraud private shareholders
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/569
He's one of them and thinks that the
anti-gold cabal has gotten control of
the bank.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Chris Powell
(10/28/00; 20:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 40179)
A review of "When Genius Failed"
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/568
Review by John Brimelow.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Zenidea
(10/28/00; 20:06:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 40178)
Rogue Waves-Rogue Traders
http://www.financialsense.com/series2/rogue.htm
HR4541 , sheech !
ThaiGold
(10/28/00; 19:33:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 40177)
EURO: A Cute Little Fiat and ...
... The Local Currency of First Resort
=======================================================================
EURO: A Cute Little Fiat and ...
... The Local Currency of First Resort
=======================================
Today, were posted two very interesting posts. And all are encouraged to
read them... Both were exceptionally well written and well thought:
(a) CAMEL's: Camel (10/28/00; 15:57:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 40171)
(b) FOA's: FOA (10/28/00; 10:40:51MD - usagold.com msg#44)
Both postulate the EURO becoming the Reserve Currency of the World, to
displace the US Dollar, in quicktime, or sometime. Mostly for purchasing
people's "oil-needs" everywhere, everyday.
Myself, disagree, and for the following reasons:
(1) The world is awash in US Dollars, obtained by their massive exports
to the USA, ... the Consumer of Last Resort.
(2) Thus, foreigners have never ending supplies of US Dollars. What to
spend them on.?. Aha... Let's use them to purchase our OIL. From OPEC.
(3) So, why should they bother to convert their Dollars to EUROs, to
buy their oil, when they already have more than enough in Dollars.?.
(4) They won't. It's a self-defeating thought. It would drive up their
EURO (by driving down the Dollar). If that happens, their exports to
the USA plummet. It would be shooting themselves in the foot. And wallet.
(5) Hence, I feel the EURO (if they ever print/mint any) will simply be
what it was originally intended to be: A convenient and cute little
currency of first resort for local purchases within their own little
European Communities of floundering socialistic bent. Nowhere else.
(6) And Saddam of Iraq may just be stuck with alot of UnSpendable, but
very cute, EURO paper. When what he (will soon realize) really needs
is bonafide US Dollars, to purchase his country's basic food, medicine,
and indeed, even his military stuff. Oh... And he may even wish to buy
some Gold somewhere. Which is always marketed in US Dollars.
As for me, I remain unconvinced that the US Government would ever allow
the US Dollar to fall from favor as the world's reserve currency. The
one of First, Last, And Final resort.
Imagined currency-wars notwithstanding. It just ain't gunna happen.
Cordially,
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
=========================================================================
R Powell
(10/28/00; 19:01:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 40176)
POG and the CRB
Mr. Lamprey. I believe you've got the CRB index figured out very well. It includes many commodities other than precious metals and oil and most of these are priced by supply and demand. These include things we export such as grains, cotton, and frozen orange juice among others.
Most of these are priced on a reasonably simple formula.
To last year's leftovers, add this year's production, then subtract this year's useage to determine this year's coming leftovers. Carryover (leftovers) as a percentage of total useage gives a number that can be compared to previous years for price comparisons. There are more things to concidered, but that's the basic idea.
One can see right away that gold doesn't fit into this formula very well as gold isn't consummed like corn or soybean or beef cattle. But you're right (IMHO) about the CRB index turning up if the global economy doesn't disintegrate and the CRB will be a possitive force for POG as well.
Most commodity analysts are forecasting a bull market in all commodities and many seem confused that it isn't already much stronger. From what I've been able to determine, the world demand is indeed increasing but world demand is buying from every sourse except the U.S. Our grains are dirt cheap but not cheap in foreign currency. I think the next leg up in the CRB that you spoke of will be delayed until world demand has exhausted available supply outside the U.S. Then we'll become the only store in town. When the world is forced to buy our grains, cotton and meats. This may make the CRB rise sudden and violent but the currency exchange is holding it back for now.
When POG does break free, it may double in dollar terms just to catch up to where it should be now. Then it will rise with the rest. Gold's fundamentals are such that, like currency exchange, it doesn't really fit the category of a commodity, but I believe it will rise with the rest as so many think of it as a commodity. I like you're speculation of Dow at 6000 with Gold at $3000. I'll enjoy seeing this!
Rich
Gold Trail Update
(10/28/00; 18:12:20MDT - Msg ID:40175)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Journeyman
(10/28/00; 17:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 40174)
Secession and other neat stuff @Al Fulchino (10/27/00; 21:25:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 40131)
http://curleywolfe.net/cw/F_Washington_Kills_Americans.shtml
Goodness gracious, Sir Al!!
You raise too many issues for my poor tunnel-carpled fingers to handle.
I'm not exactly a secessionist -- I just think the smaller and closer the government, assuming you're going to be stuck with one, the better. There's always room for and the possibility of "personal diplomacy" if they screw-up as badly as the feds have. Which usually means they don't quite.
Unfortunately I'm not one of those ivory tower folks -- I've seen a relatively large part of the world from street level and I haven't been part of the establishment for over 25 years. But I HAVE read a lot.
Balkanization is a propaganda term. As RossL alluded to in his msg:# 40135, the only problem with so-called "Balkanization" is that the borders are used to interfere with trade. This is a BIG problem though. I think ORO quantified it somewhat in his first post yesterday. But why not Balkanize with free trade preserved, at least throughout the current States, as it is now?
And USA Corp. DOESN'T make us safer. There are Islamic fundamentalist "cells" thruout this country -- and undoubtedly many of them have "poor man's nukes" (biological weapons), and Allah only knows why they haven't used them yet.
The reason Iran celebrates "Death To America Day" and a common moniker for America in the Arab world is "The Great Satan" (and South Americans refer to us as "The Colossus of the North) is that the US Government meddles in everyone's business, usually in the interest of US Big Business -- these days, Big Banking.
This pisses folks off, especially the killing and "disappearing" taught by US advisors and at places like "The School of the Americas" (before it was recently closed). Eventually they do something about it.
Just think "poor-man's nuke" the next time you see those mad-dogs in DC shooting Tomahawk missiles -- in your name -- at a Sudanese pharmaceutical plant or a tent city in Afghanistan - - - or for that matter, Serbian civilians. Pray at night that "they" blow holes in enough military vessles to molify their more radical followers here in "the states."
Unfortunately, I can't hide from biologicals -- I can only hope they don't find their way out of the nearest large city to my little berg. The kind of "safety" provided by the US Government today will work just about as well as the Maginot Line worked in protecting France from the Nazis. Actually the kind of defense provided by USA Corp will CAUSE the "war."
On the bright side, a couple of these bio-attacks might kick the POG in the direction many are hoping for.
Sorry to be so serious on this issue, but as my friend Bill Brannon, author of "Let Us Prey" (and two sequels) and I echoed back and forth several times when we saw the facts on the biologicals, "Why haven't they done it yet?" My son and grandaughter live in one of the big cities and these elitist megalomaniac cretins - - - - You get the idea.
If you think I'm over reacting, and you have the stomach for it, check the unfortunately well documented article in the link in the header.
If my state seceeded, would the Islamic radicals make a distinction and leave us out? In an interview with Diane Sawyer, bin Laden originally declared Jihad against the US Government and the US Military only. Maybe he'll leave the rest of us out of it? Naw.
By the way, SIR Fulchino, I'm not venting specifically at you - - - as far as I'm concerned, you're one of the good guys!
Regards,
Journeyman
JavaMan
(10/28/00; 16:34:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 40173)
Hello Sir Henri, I see you've been elephant hunting again...
Your last post..."2 US gold Eagles and one Harmony 10 tola bar Clink, Clink, Clunk"
I'd like to say that you certainly have shown by example, what I believe to be, the proper approach to this business of acquiring gold (at ever better prices). Clearly, your methodology reminds me of the oft repeated phrase...the race doesn't go to the swiftest or the smartest...but the one who perseveres.
Your post that I reference, and many similar posts you have made in the past should not be quickly scrolled by without contemplation by even the casual observer, for these "clink" posts of yours demonstrate that gold acquisition can and must be kept in the proper perspective. All in the fullness of time through a disciplined program of purchasing gold on a regular basis with disposable income.
All to often, we see poor souls share or vent the frustration and anxiety they are experiencing because the price of gold (or their gold shares) isn't going the way they would like in the time frame they would like. What I find most interesting is that, for the time being, for me, and you, and anyone else who is truly interested in gold with a long-term perspective, the price of gold is, in fact, going the right way! Yes, the race doesn't go to the swiftest or the smartest...but the one who perseveres.
You know, I think Harmony offers those tolas in 100s and 500s, if I'm not mistaken...Clink, Clink, D-Ohh, floor repair!
White Hills
(10/28/00; 16:27:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 40172)
Oil Productions or Dollars
Production thats the problem causing the raise in oil prices, I don't think so! In my mind transportation and refining or at least as much to blame. And, don't overlook the fact that just maybe the oil producing countries are saying " We don't want dollars but if we have to take them we want a lot more of them".Like the current US government they are saying what we want to hear but not really doing anything about it. White Hills
Camel
(10/28/00; 15:57:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 40171)
Euro
It seems to me that almost all of the recent decline in the euro ,as well as in various other currencies around the world, might be explained by the increase in oil prices that has occured during this time . Since all these currencies must be sold for dollars to buy oil their value would decrease with any increase in the price of oil and the value of the dollar would increase. Since the value of gold is inversely correlated with the value of the dollar this would also explain the decrease in the value of gold over the same time period..
If this turns out to correct then as the price of oil declines over the next few months the euro shoud rise, the dollar fall and gold increase. Barring a general war in the Mideast, oil will not reach $50 per barrel by Christmas as has been so loudly proclaimed on this forum. Saudi Arabia still has nearly 2 million bpd excess capasity, and the huge drilling boom that is presently occuring will bring new non-opec oil on the market over the next year or so.
As the price of oil falls we should begin to see an increase in economoic activity around the world and a continuation of the general prosperity. If Bush is elected his policies of big tax cuts and investment of social security funds will provide rocket fuel for the stock market so I wouldn't expect a crash any time soon, allthough it would force interest rates up again to cool down the economy.
Hanging over it all of course is the fact that the end is near for the era of cheap oil, with many responsible scientists such as Cambell predicting a peak in oil production toward the end of this decade. Along with gradually decreasing supplies of oil, demand is increasing because of increasing population and the desire of many developing countries to emulate the highly mobile western lifestyle. The interaction of these two trends should result in fairly dramatic increases in the price of oil and a gradual unfolding of the high inflation scenario.
In addition the switch to the euro as a settlenment for oil transactions that was predicted on this forum by Another and Trail Guide several years ago is now transpiring before our eyes. This seems to be an idea whose time has come and as it becomes more widespread it should increase the value of the Euro and gold and decrease the value of the dollar,as in the above formulation, allthough the extint to which this actually cascades into total financial catastrophy remains to be seen.
Sometimes it seems that we think that" the powers that be" will simply stand paralyzed like deer in the headlights while the world collapses around them. To quote the great American philosopher, John Wayne, " not likely".
Journeyman
(10/28/00; 15:55:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 40170)
Libertarianism @Netking msg:# 40139
"libertarianism is really just hedonism in disguise &
carries within it the seeds of its own destruction. Libertarianism is fundamentally a "Trojan Horse" of human/moral entropy and has always shown
itself to be such." -Netking msg:# 40139
Sir Netking,
You might want to do some research into libertarianism. With all due respect, you're completely wrong.
I'm curious how, exactly, you arrived at your conclusions. If you care to indulge? I often find people with such conclusions about libertarianism have gotten them from somewhere other than the source -- as in hear-say, etc.
Have you ever read the Libertarian Party Platform? I'm no longer active in the LP, but the platform's still a fairly good formal representation of the practical application of the philosophy. If you have, what part of it qualifies libertarianism as "hedonism in disguise" or marks it as a "'Trojan Horse' of human/moral entropy" and could you indicate a few specific libertarian occurances which moved you to suggest that libertarianism has "always shown itself to be such"?
For that matter, which parts of "liberty" do you particularly dislike?
Regards,
Journeyman
Journeyman
(10/28/00; 15:11:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 40169)
No offense & I like your statement!
Sir Peter,
I NEVER take offense at an intellectual attack -- only in-person attacks with firearms, blunt instruments, or possibly thingeys with sharp points and edges!
I was just using a hypothetical situation to illustrate some ideas. But your objections got me thinking. THANX!! (My second favorite indoor sport!) I know the issue of "have and have-not nations" from the viewpoint of gold as a major transactional medium has been addressed here before, but never in such a personal manner for me -- after all, you used it again'me, as they used to say in my part of the country!
Some good will come of it.
By the way, loved your comment "If the authorities that got upset by this had the intelligence to understand the reality, they would have
ignored it. But then if they were intelligent, they wouldn't be going through life being aut!orities."
High regards,
Journeyman
turkey hunter
(10/28/00; 15:09:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 40168)
Question for Trail Guide
Hello Trail Guide. I'm just a newcomer to the trail so I'm a bit winded. If I understand what you are saying you believe that the US$ is going to lose it's reserve status. When this happens you believe that the nations holding these $ will send them back here to the United States. So my question is; will they come back to be invested in the stock market,or will they want to buy something that they could use right now such as food, blankets, bycylces etc..? I would think that they would want to get something tangable right now. This in turn would cause inflation, because to much money chasing to few goods. Thanks in advance. Turkey Hunter
lamprey_65
(10/28/00; 14:59:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 40167)
(No Subject)
First, let me state that I am in the camp that believes that both the gold and silver markets have been negatively
manipulated for several years. Let me just list a few reasons why I hold this opinion:
1. In the past, gold has led or moved in tandem with the CRB Index. The fact we have not seen the pattern continue demands answers.
2. Reginald Howe and GATA have built pursuasive arguments for manipulation, in my opinion.
3. Watching the trading in COMEX gold shows heavy selling not consistant with other gold paper markets. Very
suspicious.
4. Esteemed technical analyst John Murphy has claimed that "gold is not a free market". I respect his opinion.
5. Ted Butler's work on silver speaks for itself.
So, those are my main reasons for suspecting manipulation... now on to the possible future.
Gold should have moved to between $335-$360 during this first phase of the commodity bull --- it did not. This means it has quite a bit of catching up to do and I suspect we will see this happen once the CRB begins its next move up...which may very will coincide with a falling dollar. Of course, if gold is being manipulated, no one really knows what it will take to break this manipulation, or when it will happen. All I know is the longer it takes to break, the more explosive the move, as gold must catch up with the underlying fundamentals.
So, gold ( and probably silver ) should see a substantial move some time into the next phase of the CRB Index move
higher, and it should be explosive. Picking the low is luck - nothing else.
Remember, very few have believed that this commodity bull is real...the next leg changes all that. Since they did not
believe in the move, they had no reason to hedge their portfolios with PM's. All this is about to change.
I expect a final, blow-off top in gold at no less than $1000 an ounce. I base this on the DOW/Gold ratio which has
worked very well for over 100 years of market history. At the trough of this charted ratio, we see ratios of 2:1 or even 1:1. So, 2000 on the DOW would mean at least $1000 per ounce gold....4000 DOW at least $2000 an ounce gold and
possibly $4000 gold etc. You get the idea. ( Personally, I'd like to see the DOW only fall to 6000! ) The DOW has
never broken the uptrendline established since the early 1930's. This trendline would have the DOW test the 2000 level. I hope it doesn't, of course, but it has tested this trendline several times in the last 50+ years.
I expect silver to move much, much higher from its current level. I have no ability to even estimate how high it could go.
I say the time to move into physical gold and silver, and lightly hedged to non-hedged PM stocks has never been better.
Lamprey
lamprey_65
(10/28/00; 14:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 40166)
Posts on CRB Index/Gold
The first leg of the bull-move in commodities, as measured by the CRB Index, has ended. This move began in July/August 1999 with a low of 182.67 on the CRB. The high so far for the move was 234.38 intraday on October 12, 2000. This leg lasted for nearly 14 months.
Now, for the first time since last July, the CRB has broken significantly below the uptrendline and closed this Friday at 219.26. I'm looking for support at the 50 and 200 day moving average - right around 215. There is the possibility that it may go lower, however.
This is all very normal. Although first leg in a bull market can be explosive - as this CRB move has been with a high to
low percentage move of 27.5+% in a little over a year - they are nearly always looked upon as destined to fail by the
majority of market watchers. Just listen to those looking for mid-twenty dollar a barrel oil.
The second phase of the commodity bull should commence once the CRB closes above the October 12th high and
holds for several days...this should occur before the end of the year.
The second phase of bull markets are when more mainstream money begins moving heavily into that market. Up until
now, it's been mainly the "sharp" money...the Jimmy Rogers, et al. who have made money on this move.
The second phase should see the CRB test, if not take out, its highs from 1996 (near the 257 mark...at least another
10% and probably more from this month's high).
We should then see another break of that trend line and then the beginning of the third bull phase. This phase is when all the dumb money pours in and we see a "blow-off top" lasting no longer than about 6 months.
Remember how the internet bull market started? The very smart money identified companies like CMGI and bought in
for peanuts. The mainstream money thought internet companies were a joke...until they could no longer ignore the gains,
then they too bought in. Then we had a correction last year until September, after which we had a spectacular blow-off
top from October '99 until March '00. This is when the dumb money got fleeced.
Next post --- how gold/silver falls into this scenario.
R Powell
(10/28/00; 14:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 40165)
History channel tonight
My TV guide for 9:00 EST lists this on the history channel,
CRASH How the stock market crash of 1929 happened, and the likelihood of it happening again.
Humble Pie
(10/28/00; 13:48:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 40164)
---Currencies, Dollar ,Euro,etc-----
To the central banks of the world ,without whose cooperation the manipulation of POG,currencies etc,would not been possible. Let us not forget the billions of victims of inflation who,for obeying the law have been punished by the law. As long as corruption seems to be the main feature of the day ,there is little hope for paper of any sort.
Fredrich Knapp, a long dead Prussian economist beleived that money was an instrument of
PH in LA
(10/28/00; 12:52:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 40163)
Recalling the view from another moment on the same Gold Trail
"...Remember the mid-80s when the dollar was off the charts, making today's strength look weak in comparison?" Trail Guide-Today's Gold Trail post #44
Trail Guide:
I guess we should interpret that in terms of an "inflation-adjusted" dollar (whatever that is), (wan smile). Because, in 1984-85 I clearly recall that the Spanish peseta made its all-time low of 185/$, an unheard of number. Last week the same peseta/$ made a new all-time high of 201/$!!!!
I offer this observation not to disagree with you but rather to underscore how truly out-of-balance today's dollar/euro(peseta) relationship actually is. In 1985, 185ptas/$ meant that my first meal in Spain, (on that memorable trip on which I met my future wife) after an exhausting journey by planes, trains and taxi, cost me something less that $2.00. That, even though the taberna's owner brought out several courses, served me a bottle of wine and finished with an excellent coffee served with flan, etc. (as the Spanish are accustomed to doing.) As you can imagine, the tourist in me was overjoyed. Actually, when the cuenta (bill) came, I almost couldn't believe it!
How difficult it always is to look ahead in this amazing existence we call life. Are we at another high point, now? Or is it up, up and away from here? Sure wish I knew. (Actually, you probably wish you knew, too.)
Gold Trail Update
(10/28/00; 11:05:38MDT - Msg ID:40162)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
tedw
(10/28/00; 10:54:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 40161)
Saddam and the Euro
http://www.usagold.com
Just my observations which may not mean much.
I would expect Saddams "demand" for settlement in Euros to be approved. After all, the UN is not exactly a pro-American place.
One would expect that the European nations would be all for this considering the troubles with the Euro.
And if Saddam does this, how far behind will Iran (currently calling for allout warfare with "Zionists")be?
Is this like the hole in the dike beggining to spill water?
America has a lot of enemies in this world, enemies who would like to see the dollar fail.
Gold Trail Update
(10/28/00; 10:40:53MDT - Msg ID:40160)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Galearis
(10/28/00; 10:09:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 40159)
@ Black Blade
To add to my comments on the viability of the EuroUnion:
Ironically, in our own country of Canada it is easier in many areas to trade with the USA than it is to trade between our provinces. We have inter-provincial tariffs in place that have been delt away with much more effectively in the new Europe between member countries.
We also have pseudo socialism and equalization payments to address some of the regional disparities partially caused by this stupidity. However, the right is on the march in the Alliance Party, and this particular equalizer is now in jeaprody. A weaker Federal Government (as is their platform intent) will not address this tariff problem (a provincial problem) whereas equalizations will be done away with.... Another irony: the farming sector will also tend to support the Alliance in the west (and in Ontario); this will do away with their subsidies (FarmAid), a subsidy, that while is inadequate under the present Federal system, will be shut down entirely should the Alliance come to power. Canada cannot afford to subsidize farmers as well as is done in the US. Its monetary policy is not out of control.
Best regards,
G.
Peter Asher
(10/28/00; 10:06:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 40158)
Back Blade and the Italian "Currency"
It isn't really currency! It is more like a form of two-for one discount coupons for a group of stores, subsidized by the professor. The consumers and merchants aren't earning and spending them as a monetary unit in their working lives .
Imagine George Soros, as a promotion for the products of the EU, offering to give two Euros to the dollar. Until his money ran out there would be an economic boom, but it would just be a function of his gift, not of currency.
If the authorities that got upset by this had the intelligence to understand the reality, they would have ignored it. But then if they were intelligent, they wouldn't be going through life being aut!orities.
DaveC
(10/28/00; 09:37:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 40157)
Black Blade (10/28/00; 05:20:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 40145)
"Dim Wim"
BB, Remember "irrational exuberance?"
Easy Al survived. So will Wim and the Euro.
I think ORO said it best when he stated that gold is also a "money without a country" in that it is/was used across borders regardless of culture, language or customs.
That argument won't hold up. The US is headed for, or is already in, a debt trap. That is why the players are converting foreign digit they can into dollar digits.
Unfortunately all good things must come to an end. It's going to be ugly.
Have fun in SE Asia. Ask about their monetary union. Stratfor says the US is really trying to stop it.
DaveC
(10/28/00; 09:24:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 40156)
Rockgrabber (10/28/00; 08:02:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 40149)
Euros instead of gold?
I think the answer to your question is best stated in the phrase "baby steps."
And the Iraqi idea here, as reported anyway, is to hurt the US. Since the current "new era" investor knows little or nothing about the significance of gold in a monetary system, going for Euros is something even the ignorant masses, after all the anti-Euro propaganda, will understand.
Go Harry Browne! GO GOLD!
DaveC
(10/28/00; 09:21:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 40155)
Netking (10/28/00; 01:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 40142)
Netking, if this guy was half the technician he claimed to be he would state that a break of support requires confirmation.
I, as a speculator in the futures market, like to see three closes above/below resistance/support levels before I believe the move to be real. If you stare at enough charts, you will find that this is very good confirmation and that the failure of this shows a good chance for a reversal.
He would also know that markets do not go down because of too many sellers, but that they go down from LACK OF BUYERS. The inverse is true also.
If you look at the OI and volume of COMEX gold you will see that the numbers are very low. There is no one playing the game, thus a lack of buyers.
I prefer Austrian Philharmonics, as I live in Italy.
wolavka
(10/28/00; 09:19:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 40154)
What's left is right
What's left to support any european fiat, be it euro- swiss- mark???????????????????????????????
What's right: Gold
What's interesting is the waiting and who will survive.
end of story.
DaveC
(10/28/00; 09:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 40153)
Bill Parish Takes On Citigroup
http://www.billparish.com/citigrouppyramid.html
A must read on financial "pooling" at the nation's largest bank.
auspec
(10/28/00; 08:46:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 40152)
Exit Interview
Did anyone else notice that glorious word EXIT used in the same sentence as our pres? I'm starting to feel better already, regardless of who comes next and whatever havoc they bring!
Got HOPE & HARD$?
Henri
(10/28/00; 08:19:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 40151)
2 US gold Eagles and one Harmony 10 tola bar
Clink, Clink, Clunk
Henri
(10/28/00; 08:17:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 40150)
Cavan Man
I'm with you. Waiting patiently for Trail Guides insights and comment on Reg Howe's legal manueverings RE the BIS private shareholder freeze-out. Could this really force the liquidation and reconstitiution of the BIS? I think it should be heard in the Swiss court system. The US is so corrupt, the cabal will have their way if it is heard in US court.
Rockgrabber
(10/28/00; 08:02:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 40149)
Euros instead of Gold
Would it not be easier and more effective for saddam to take Gold instead of euros? Is he allowed to use the money in the fund at all, or is it all just savings? If it is being used to buy food I suppose he will need to use a currency of some sort to purchase food. Its illigal to use anything but fiat I guess (nobody would use it otherwise I guess)((Actually people dont seem real bright, they would probably still use and save fiat. ))
Its to bad most items in this world have somehow been priced in dollars and not GOLD. Gold should be the real international currency, how we got on this ship is just crazy.
Why does Saddam not make any requests towards Iraqs money being saved in Gold?
I guess Euros are better then dollars. Something has to get shaken up here.
oooohhh ya its only 2 hours 57 minutes untill my local Gold dealer is open! Its to late the market cant change the price yet, I have at least this weekend. And from the way things go next week may even be a better price, if it is I will be stocked eitherway.
RossL
(10/28/00; 08:00:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 40148)
gold trading stopping at $250?
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Could it be a scenario such as we are seeing with gold stocks? volume is very low because the owners of the stock aren't selling, the price is too low. Nobody is buying because the price keeps drifting down. There is a deflationary lack of liquidity. Gold miners are not profitable and are hedging as Zenidea #40141 has posted.
Shifty- thanks, I didn't think to check if GSR was still tradng on the TSE.
Netking -#: 40139 Possibly you have confused liberty with anarchy.
SALMON
(10/28/00; 06:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 40147)
More Euro
People conveniently have short memory.
I remember not that long ago $US were trading 80 on the US Dollar index.
SALMON
(10/28/00; 06:29:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 40146)
Euro is here to stay.
I notice on this Great Forum a lot of wide ranging opinions about Euro. As one who lived in Europe for an extended period of time I have to state that the Euro is here to stay and will prosper. Simply from a practical point of view, just imagine traveling through Europe and having to exchange currency in every small country. Keep in mind that also involves exchange charges, which in some cases, were between 10 % and 25%. The Euro eliminates this. Also, the inconvenience of having to go through customs and border checks is something that has been eliminated. No more long line-ups.
With a EU passport (which notes the individuals nationality as well) people are able to travel and work in any of the EU countries. Another bonus.
Just to finish off, I noted someone yesterday stated that the EU government is immune from any kind of recourse for actions while in office. I think you will find this situation exists with most elected governments.
Black Blade
(10/28/00; 05:20:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 40145)
"Dim Wim"
It looks as if ECB President Wim Duisenberg has been given a new nickname by the European financial press. They call him "Dim Wim." The question is how long this old boy can continue to be effective. He has lost the confidence of the people, the financial media, and the very institutions that he has to deal with in his official capacity. Now he is being mercilessly ridiculed by the financial markets, analysts, and the press. Probably for good reason as the Euro tanks again the US Dollar and the Yen (OUCH!). The weak Euro is an embarrassment for the ECB, and increases the risk of accelerated inflation. The ECB has previously stated that they are concerned about a rate of inflation in excess of 2% (note: the US doesn't seem concerned about a 3.5% rate……Hmmmm). But the concern is that rising oil prices (in dollars) and exchange rates that are collapsing against the US Dollar will show up as a strongly accelerated rate of inflation. This is the ECB's greatest fear, rising inflation on face of rising oil priced in US Dollars, where the Euro oil price is rising even faster. The only positive factor that I can determine is that exports are more attractive to foreigners.
Black Blade
(10/28/00; 05:18:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 40144)
A story about currency that I condensed from the WSJ
An Italian Tale – Banking, it's not just for bankers anymore! It's all about confidence in the currency!
From an article in the WSJ, Oct. 6, 2000 (sorry about the inserted comments and interpretations)
In a small town called Guardiagrele, there is an interesting experiment in Central Banking and currency printing taking place. Obviously, the bankers are not happy, the people are happy, and the government is not in a position to argue. A new currency called the Simec has appeared on the scene. What is a Simec you may ask? The Simec is the Italian acronym for "econometric symbol of inducted value." It is the brainchild of a wealthy local retired law professor named Giancinto Auriti. In most places the Simec would not be worth the paper it is printed on, yet many local merchants accept the new currency and are reimbursed in Lire at the rate of 2 for 1. This gets strange but at the same time it has exposed the Italian Central Bank as much as counterfeiters as the good professor, perhaps even more so. The strange part of this experiment is that the citizenry pay for Simecs with Lire at the rate of 1 to 1 and effectively double their money.
The good professor can well afford it as he spent much of his fortune to finance the Simec in an effort to prove his theory about money and the vast banking conspiracy. So far his experiment ha produced a frenzy of consumption (wealth effect?) in Guardiagrele, a rupture in the local business community, a rebuke from the Bank of Italy, and even a legal victory! The premise of the professor's experiment is to convince people that central bankers are the biggest con artists in modern history. His main thesis is that the central banks rob the common man by the method that they place new currency into circulation. Hmmm….. where have we heard that before? Rather than inject the cash directly into circulation, they lend it through the banking system while charging interest. The professor claims that this practice makes the Central Bankers the owners of the currency, and everyone else their debtors. I must admit, his experiment is quite the novel approach to proving this theory. He concludes that this debt-based money has roughly half the purchasing power as it would if it were directly injected into circulation. Thus, the 2 for 1 exchange rate.
Originally, he tried to challenge the bankers in the courts but was rebuffed in his efforts to sue the Bank of Italy Governor Antonio Fazo, and former Governor Carlo Azeglio Ciampi for fraud. Yeah, that could be a problem. So the good professor conceived of another means to prove his point. He first hired a local printer to produce several boxed of Simecs. Each is emblazoned with a hologram and an image of an eagle. They come in violet, green and mocha depending on the denomination. Each carries the statement that identifies it as property of the bearer. Next he convinced about 40 local merchants to accept the Simec that he would redeem for a 2 Lire each.
Soon people lined up to exchange their Lire for Simecs, even raiding their savings, in order buy purchase goods. Daily volume reached about $40,000 per day. Even neighbors for communities throughout the Abruzzo Region came to partake of the experiment. They stormed stores to purchase smoked prosciutto, designer shoes, and other goods at half the Lire price. For the participating merchants, every day was Christmas. The professor was good to his word as every week he exchanged the Simecs for Lire and everyone was happy except the bankers and government. Oh yeah, and the non-participating merchants weren't happy, as many customers went to the stores that accepted Simecs. The local business association was split in two and its pro-Semic chairman was forced to resign. It came to a head last August as non-participating merchants and the mayor, Franco Caramanico, asked local magistrates to intervene with a ruling on the legality of the new currency. Eventually, the non-participating merchants were demanding damages from the professor. By mid-August, there were about 2.5 billion Simecs in circulation.
That's when the local magistrates called in Italy's Finance Guard, a militarized police force that deals with crimes such as smuggling and tax fraud. They carted off box loads of Simecs prompting protests from angered citizens. However, the opponents were shocked as a local court found that the professor did nothing wrong. A real dilemma eh? What to do – since the Central Banks could conceivably face the same charges. Meanwhile prosecutors are considering a ruling from a higher court. The experiment is now on hold, however, there appears to be enough Lire to make redemption's, also the Semic has become a collectors item with numismatists from all over Italy seeking to purchase the new currency.
But the Bank of Italy isn't amused (more fun when your bank is a monopoly). Organizations are generally opposed to competition, whether it is the Mafia or the Central Bank. In a statement released by the bank, the CB reminded Italians that the "collection of funds among the public, emission and management of means of payment are, in the best interests of the public, reserved to subjects authorized by law" – and those don't include Prof. Auriti. Seems they got just a wee bit testy over this little experiment. Regardless, the Prof. ruffled a few powerful feathers. He has attracted a lot of support from various quarters. A Franciscan Catholic college in Abruzzo's capital L’Aquila. Plans to open a school on monetary values dedicated to the professor. The Northern League, a political party wants the professor to address its mayors on how to spread "local money" nationwide. The professor looks forward to 2002 when the Euro is scheduled to replace European currencies. He says that "a storm is coming", and he thinks that Central Bankers will use the occasion to provoke an artificial cash crunch turning Europeans into monetary slaves.
I don't totally agree with the professor, but I think he may be on to something. It really is about confidence in the currency. The Euro could be facing some very shaky times ahead. Ah, OK, shakier times ahead.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(10/28/00; 05:16:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 40143)
RE: Galearis, ORO, Stranger, Leigh, justamerebear, and White Hills
Thank you all. Your responses give me some ideas to reflect upon. As I said, this is not my area of expertise, but I certainly had some thoughts (maybe concerns) about the viability of the new currency with all the attendant problems of European diversity and confidence of the people.
Stranger: Good to see your still around. I have to agree with you on your assessment of the Arab world. BTW, I was in the SLC area not long ago, I ate at an excellent little place called "The Red Iguana". Excellent selection of Mole. Thanks.
Leigh: Thankyou my good Lady. I still down my Lariam and other medications. Gold Flakes for malaria, Hmmmm..... Who woulda thought ;-)
Netking
(10/28/00; 01:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 40142)
Technical shackles broken?
Kaplan (Leonard not Steven), suggested that gold is simply seeing too much technical selling pressure. "I still believe that gold is a captive of the dollar, but when it breaks support like it did yesterday, technicals reign supreme," he said. Kaplan went on to say that gold is in a bear market and under these conditions, "any positive news is interpreted negatively or is ignored." Now that gold has broken key support there is nothing holding it back from hitting $262-263, he said. If after it manages to stabilize, then external factors will start to impact the market once more. "It loosened the shackles of the dollar, but it was not good because of the technical aspects," Kaplan added.
* Care to comment on the above?
Zenidea
(10/28/00; 01:27:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 40141)
swings and roundabouts
No bright future for gold says
AngloGold as it posts results
THE world's largest gold producer, SA's AngloGold Limited has posted a 1,7%
increase in gold production to 1,83-million ounces for the quarter to
end-September, from 1,799-million ounces in the previous three months.
However, the company said increased costs and increased spending on
exploration and corporate activities, together with lower income from associates,
saw headline earnings decline 11,3% to $0,55 from $0,62. Headline earnings a
share amounted to R3,99, from R4,29.
The group's operating profit also slipped 3,4% to $115,1m from $119,2m as a 9%
wage increase took effect at the SA operations, and which affects about 54% of
working costs.
However, cash costs were steady at $209/oz from $207/oz previously, while total
production costs were also maintained at $240/oz from $239/oz. Net capital
expenditure was 21% higher at $62,6m from $51,8m.
The group said the current narrow price range for gold is likely to prevail into the
future until some major dislocating event in other financial markets occurs to
move investor interest back to gold.
In its review of the gold market for the third quarter, the company said the paper
market for gold remains thin, with limited interest and this has contributed to a
narrow price range for the metal.
A setback in equity markets, or in the value of the US dollar could lead to more
favourable interest in gold.
The physical markets for gold remain largely in balance, AngloGold said.
Countries which support the Washington Agreement have shown every sign of
adhering to that agreement, but countries and institutions that are not signatories
have felt free to sell gold from their reserves, it said.
The market has had to absorb opportunistic sales of gold from a number of
official sellers outside of the Washington Agreement during the past nine months
and total official sales of the metal for this year look likely to be higher than last
year.
To balance this, physical demand has been good, although uneven in some
important markets.
AngloGold said it was encouraging that gold producers appear to be more aware
of the need for the marketing of gold, and it must be hoped that this awareness
will translate to more widespread support for gold promotion by gold producers
than has been the case in the past.
The gold market was quiet for much of the third quarter, and the price drifted
lower. The average spot price of $276/oz compares with the average for the
second quarter of $280/oz.
Support for the price from physical demand around levels of $270/oz was evident
again in the quarter; the price closed the quarter at $274/oz at the low end of its
recent trading range.
In SA, the average price for the quarter of R62,176/kg was up slightly on the
second quarter, but since the end of the third quarter, we have seen historic
record rand prices for gold of over R67 000/kg.
The lower spot price of gold and the limited price range have made it necessary
for AngloGold to increase further the levels of hedge cover for new projects in Mali
and Tanzania, and for existing capital projects in SA.
This cover is consistent with the company's policy of actively managing revenue
risk in the short to medium term, and with the company's commitment to paying
appropriate returns to shareholders on capital invested in the company.
Hedge cover remains concentrated primarily in the two years immediately ahead,
with relatively low levels of cover in place for the company in the period thereafter.
SHIFTY
(10/28/00; 00:40:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 40140)
Goldfly / Aunuggets
Pink money and $250 gold
We have heard the same things about the pink money.
As for gold trading stopping at $250. The guy that has told me that is my local coin guy. He has said it in passing more than once. I never did ask him what he bases that on.
I will ask him when I see him again.
$hifty
Netking
(10/28/00; 00:35:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 40139)
@ Ross L
Libertarianism
Re:40135
Ross you capitulate that; "Libertarianism is the psychology of freedom. It is LIBERTY..."
I agree to disagree with your statement Ross, libertarianism is really just hedonism in disguise & carries within it the seeds of its own destruction.
Libertarianism is fundamentally a "Trojan Horse" of human/moral entropy and has always shown itself to be such.
justamereBear
(10/28/00; 00:00:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 40138)
tg
Thanks, it has been bookmarked.
Also re your 40136, personally I go along with that kind of thinking. Seems to work as well as anything, but you sure have to watch and listen a lot to insure you are indeed getting the right picture.
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