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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/28/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Peter Asher (11/28/99; 23:29:51MDT - Msg ID:19861)
canamami
The bitter truth may be that this auction is coming in @ a $42, 18% higher price, which may not be as attractive as the $252 level was.

OverHerd (11/28/99; 23:25:49MDT - Msg ID:19860)
Number Six
I work for a major airline,4 th largest in the country(US),
oops guess I blew my cover, oh well it dosen't matter.Maybe
you can give a post on the 31st and let me know if I should show up for work on the first. I'm keeping my fingers crossed but I have my doubts about this company.I thought American had the best and most informitive Year 2000 readiness section in thier 10 - Q third quarter earnings report.

Thats all for tonight, whoa its already 1:30,
joe

YGM (11/28/99; 23:22:19MDT - Msg ID:19859)
Wise Words...
Sent to me by a Friend.........

The purpose of life has become an elusive objective,
Everybody is a victim of their own thinking,
Education does not teach our youth how to live, survive, and succeed in
this environment that man has created.

Why be right when it can destroy you?

"Veonor Sotak"

Peter Asher (11/28/99; 23:17:38MDT - Msg ID:19858)
Marius
Glad you brought that up! Democracy could be defined as a system where 51% of the population can enslave 49%, limited only by the judicial interpretation of the prevailing constitution. Robert Heinlien has some good story content addressing this but I can't recall which novel. Then if you want really bitter cynicism, there's Kipling's poem, "The People" -----

The forces of good and evil could currently be defined as the explosion of free communication via the internet vs. The "Dumbing Down" of the new generations by psycho-tropic drugs, the school systems that surrender to them, and Network TV.

The more people have access to the truth, the more they must be rendered incapable of processing the data!

canamami (11/28/99; 23:13:04MDT - Msg ID:19857)
POG's weakness - BOJ intervention
It could be that some of the POG's weakness tonight is due to the BOJ's intervention to drive down the yen, which usually involves building up the US dollar. However, copper and platinum seem to be holding up okay.

Regardless, not a good omen for the first post-Washington Agreement gold sale. Do the big boyz know something we don't? I note that if the Metropolecafe was reporting that a governmental deal was afoot to save gold, the big players knew the Washington Agreement was in the works, and I suggest that's what drove the lease rates for a while - the big players' knowledge of what was to happen. Now, before the BOE sale results are announced, the POG is heading down (this theory subject to the caveat that the BOJ's action may be driving tonight's decline.)

Number Six (11/28/99; 22:55:31MDT - Msg ID:19856)
@OverHerd (like that handle!) - Y2K rollover...

Hi Joe - right - I'm in Denver, Gold Country :o), and unfortunately as a Contractor have drawn the short straw and will be working right through Christmas and the 31st-2nd - actually working on a major airline (guess:o) ) reservations system... there will be about 200+ people on site during the rollover (as opposed to a normal 15 or so) and I will be monitoring our realtime systems - it should be very interesting as in our data centre we have two massive TV screens which we will have up and running so that we can monitor CNN etc. as the rollover begins in New Zealand and works it's way around to Denver... yup, I'll be able to watch the lights going out from OZ to Japan to... let's hope NOT!

Our system (they all say this) is fine, we are already making bookings well into 2000, but my big concern is telecoms, the big telcos, AT&T, Sprint, BT etc. etc. (and SITA which in turn relies on the telco's, which rely on the satellites and hubs and electricity functioning worldwide which relies on local computer processing, ad infinitum) - if the telco's go down, if even ONE major company bites it the others may not be able to take up the slack, we will have outages due to data spikes/overloads (similar to when everyone tries to ring auntie ethel at midnight Xmas, the phone lines can't take the load) - and in turn OUR sytem may not be able to handle incoming surges of data... all in all it will be an eye opener whatever the outcome.

My prediction - all hell will break loose worldwide in January with a hopefully gigantic kick up the arse for the metals!

If this doesn't do it we may have to wait until after the elections in 2000 for a major move...

Marius (11/28/99; 22:53:53MDT - Msg ID:19855)
Canuck Gold message #19832
I must take exception to your statement: "...one should fight for democracy." One must fight for FREEDOM, not democracy. They are far from synonymous, and, as Mencken suggests, are antithetical. Check out Mencken's Second Chrestomathy for his thoughts on liberty & democracy. It will get you down off that pupit in no time!

OverHerd (11/28/99; 22:11:48MDT - Msg ID:19854)
World Bank Chief Economist to Quit
http://www.individual.com/story.shtml?story=c1124171.400
Hi All,
I tried to copy the article but Netscape kept crashing, I hope the link is still valid, if not I can try the copy and paste with IE or Word.
So far this week my windows system has crashed at least five times and twice while on line, boy I can't wait to get my linux( Redhat 6.0) system up and running. I hope I'm starting to learn some things about the new system, I've already "fixed" it once and now I'm locked out, I think I changed something and should have recompiled the kernel but I don't know how to do that yet. ET any advice for a new user?

Peter Asher (11/22/99; 21:39:03MDT - Msg ID:19539)
Thank you for the kind thoughts, although I do not reside in Denver, I'm just north of Atlanta, I appreciate that you thought of me. I think besides MK, Number Six resides in Denver (Number Six how's the rollover work going?). Peter the reason it took so long to respond is because I'm about a week behind on reading the forum posts. I hope you did not have any trouble with the recent rains, how about Richard in Oregon, I haven't heard from him in awhile?
I had read that article you had referenced on nano-technology. Art Bell is going to have on his radio show Charles Ostman this coming week to discuss nano-technology on Tuesday 11/30.

PH in LA , Strad Master, I'm reading a book by a man named Neil Slade who is a composer and musician among other things, have either of you heard of him also Strad is the recording of your concert offer only good for FOA?

I hope to be back sooner than later,
joe

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 21:53:27MDT - Msg ID:19853)
viper
You won't be alone!

ET (11/28/99; 21:50:23MDT - Msg ID:19852)
Canuck

Hey Canuck - how ya been? I see you're trying to stir up the crowd
this evening. I think everybody's bummed about the BOE sale, eh? I
say it looks like a great buying opportunity.

I do believe it is supply and demand, just like you suggest. FOA
has made the point that the market everyone seems concerned with is
the paper market. The only people that should be disheartened here
are the paper traders not the physical buyers. The physical buyers
are having a field day at these prices. If the paper traders want to
keep forcing the paper market lower it's OK by me. My dollars just go
further that way. I don't expect this happy state of affairs to last
forever but in the meantime, it's working out just fine.

I've always felt this paper gold market is relatively thin and easy to
control. I don't expect the demand for physical to have much effect
on the paper market. As long as they can coax enough of the stuff
into the marketplace by whatever means it would seem the paper price
will stay under control. It's similar to this y2k thing in many
respects but the main aspect is that like y2k, it will take an event
of some magnitude to get the attention of the masses. Without mass
participation I expect those in the paper business will have their
way. These guys are great at supplying confidence and it seems
confidence is in high demand.

Hey - the news tonight featured the protests going on up there in
Seattle against the corporate socialists. That Harpers' piece that
AEL linked us to seemed rather poignant in light of this WTO stuff. I
sure would like to see sound money make a comeback, at least this
socialism would have a much more difficult time being credible.

ET

Viper (11/28/99; 21:29:34MDT - Msg ID:19851)
Down some more!!!!
It appears that Gold is now down almost $5.00 depending on what month you're looking at. This is nerve racking! I won't be sleeping much tonight.

ET (11/28/99; 21:16:28MDT - Msg ID:19850)
Goldfly

Hey Goldfly - nice try! This is confounding, eh? I like the dual
link deal. Did you just list them one after the other in the link
box?

If I save a post and then pull it up on this text editor Emacs, I see
all the HTML tags listed. Emacs is a plain ASCII editor, not a
WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get) word processor. It appears our
posts are submitted as plain text and then the HTML tags are added by
the server. It is interesting to note however that this post will
appear in it's original form (line length) and will not be subjected
to the server's HTML line length format which ignores all editing
marks. Maybe Jeff can tell us how this works.

ET

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 20:43:55MDT - Msg ID:19849)
gold price
http://members.aol.com/js23wan/index.html
Next time everyone feels bad because the price of gold is down go to this site and see what depression is really like!

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 20:33:01MDT - Msg ID:19848)
golden truth
I made it to the site.

Golden Truth (11/28/99; 20:29:14MDT - Msg ID:19847)
TO SHIFTY
http://www.ft.com/
Hi SHIFTY sorry i took so long to get back to you i had trouble with the laptop, and then it was dinner time!
Anyways i don't know why the link doesn't work i checked it 3 times.

So click on above link, then click on market news at the top of the page. Then just scroll down a little more than half ways, there you will see the article on the B.O.E 3rd GOLD sale.

Can you believe this, the WORLD is supposed to be short 500,000,000 oz's of GOLD and the price is down over $2/oz?

F.O.A what is going on,please check in here, and at least give us an update or something. We need some help!

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 20:12:26MDT - Msg ID:19846)
(No Subject)
Is there a good movie on TV or did the triptofan in all that turkey cause everybody to fall asleep?

SteveH (11/28/99; 20:07:58MDT - Msg ID:19845)
A fresh of breath air...
www.bbc.co.uk
Do gold crowns stop bad breath and help you get promoted? (the gold is my twist)

Bad breath 'damages career prospects'
Nearly half the population believes that people with bad breath are less likely to be promoted at work, a survey finds.

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 19:58:48MDT - Msg ID:19844)
(No Subject)
Kitco gold price up $0.05 to 295.75 at this rate I will fall asleep to.

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 19:37:47MDT - Msg ID:19843)
wake up
is everyone sleeping or what?

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 19:14:52MDT - Msg ID:19842)
viper
Thank you , I'm on my way!

Viper (11/28/99; 19:11:01MDT - Msg ID:19841)
Shifty
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q2ea6da.htm#top
Copy link above exactly....I went there also & it did the same thing. I worked my way through but can't remember exactly how I got there to be able to tell you. I put the article in my favorites so the above link should take you right to the article.

Goldy Locks Guy (11/28/99; 19:10:08MDT - Msg ID:19840)
Price of Gold
Hi guys.....I have two cents to put in......I think the price of gold is going to stay the same or lower, simply because every time we have thought something major was going to happen it didn't and when we weren't expecting it something major did happen.....So, by past experience I say we will be bored tomorrow.....although I did buy alot of gold before this past weekend.....:) Goldi Locks Guy

dragonfly (11/28/99; 18:57:34MDT - Msg ID:19839)
confiscation
Can anyone refer me to previous posts or other sites where I might learn about the potential for government confiscation of privately held gold. How it was actually done the last time and so forth. Thanks.

Also for any who are really interested in a non-ideological, strictly economic insight into the West's relations with the Soviet Union, try to find the 3 volume set "Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development" by Antony Sutton, written while he was a researcher at Stanford University's Hoover Institution for War, Revolution and Peace.

There was more going on between 1917 and 1965 than most folks have any idea of. Guaranteed to disturb the staunchest of conservatives and spin the head right off any liberal who still has a 900 page attention span.

The Scot (11/28/99; 18:55:25MDT - Msg ID:19838)
Hey Canuck, I'll roll the 20K
AS mentiond several days ago, my 61st bithday is Nov.29, I would be very pleased if the BOE sale caused a slight rise in Gold. I'm not greedy, $390.00 will be fine.
The Scot

SHIFTY (11/28/99; 18:50:43MDT - Msg ID:19837)
Golden Truth/link
The link came up error page unavailable. Any ideas?

Simply Me (11/28/99; 18:42:55MDT - Msg ID:19836)
Canuck Gold
That's exactly what "Better Dead than Red" means. Fighting it. Can't think of any American propoganda that has ever suggested suicide.

Kitco spot now $295.70. Ouch! Looks like I'll be glued to the computer tonight and tomorrow!
simply me

Golden Truth (11/28/99; 18:31:13MDT - Msg ID:19835)
B.O.E GOLD SALE INFO!
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q2ca6da.htm
Excellent article on B.O.E GOLD sale in 6 1/2 hrs
Click on above link and transport yourself to it!

Canuck (11/28/99; 18:19:22MDT - Msg ID:19834)
Rally the troops
@Scotty

Lets go Scotty, 20k on the line, lets roll.

@ss of Nep

Gotta get that RRSP contribution back, go POG.

@Goldspoon

Bring out the sword, man

@ Black Blade

Rattle some chains, lets wake up this party.

@ Stranger

Inflation, deflation, let's piss someone off.

@ GATA

You chumps have been sitting around.

@canamami

You were quiet for a while, you're getting into it now.

@ Leigh

Gave up the fight, sweetheart, I don't think so.

@ Gandalf

More Hobbit stories guy, we're dying; shoot SPOT.

@ ORO

Keep pumping the numbers man.

@ FOA

" . . . deliver us from evil . . ."

@ ET

This is a supply/demand game, no matter how artificial it looks.

@ MK

Get the goods out there. If 'they' can't acquire it, 'we' control it.

beesting (11/28/99; 18:08:28MDT - Msg ID:19833)
Fridays close $320.00! or over!
Don't pay attention to the Kitco chart right this minute!!!.....beesting

Canuck Gold (11/28/99; 18:04:25MDT - Msg ID:19832)
Mr Gresham (11/28/99; 12:53:39MDT - Msg ID:19807)
Better dead than red? IMHO, I would suggest that, rather than commiting suicide, it suggests that one should fight for democracy and die in the process rather than just rolling over and accepting a communist regime. A little off topic, but it's a slow new day!

CG

beesting (11/28/99; 17:58:46MDT - Msg ID:19831)
Who wants to speculate on the POG 5 days after BOE auction?
In the first BOE auction, "spot" price of Gold fell about $20.00 or more in the week after the auction.
In the second BOE auction,"spot" rose about $20.00 in the first week,than in the following week took off,if I remember right.
Now,the over hedged Goldmines have had 2 months to adjust their hedge books accordingly in case of a spike up in "spot"Gold.
The short and long players in the Gold commodities casinos also have had 2 months to prepare for this auction.
The Bullion Bankers I don't think want to mine Gold themselves(too dirty) by repossessing Gold mines that can't pay their commitments'so I'm going out on a limb and guess that Gold will close $20.00 higher by next Friday.
I don't really care if I'm wrong!!! So ridicule now if anyone wants to. Anyone else want to guess next Fridays closing price?
Ladies & Knights place your bets....oohhh sorry no gambling allowed......beesting

Canuck (11/28/99; 17:53:01MDT - Msg ID:19830)
Anxious
Don't know about you guys but I'm getting hot and bothered.

BOE #3 has been prompted to be a good possibility. The equity liquidation is definitely a strong possibility. The rollover is a strong possibility. Possibility of what? Round
2 of major POG rise.

Early tomorrow afternoon we shall bear witness to the demand of physical. Watch "oversubscribe" detail; it may well be more important than " sold price". The 'selling price' may be indicative of the nature of the auction, that is, its unique format. Watch for 'oversubscribe' and to the
potpourri of 'bidders'. The source of bidders, ie mines, other CB's, BB's, etc., etc., will paint a picture. Quantity and source, IMHO, is the key.

I have scanned scads of economic/market sites in the last month or two. A potential theme loams. A timed exit from equities may be playing out. A prominent brokerage has told,
not advised his clients, that all investments vehicles will be liquated to cash at the end of November, to lock in profits, avoid the exit in December, and to dismiss the possible mayhem of the rollover.

"... the century rollover..." (Alan Greenspan). I am assuming that every big time, big bucks investor that is long in equities on Dec. 31, 11:59 P.M. has himself equipped
with adult diapers because it is a toss up whether the clock continues or he deletes himself horribly.

Nov. 29- Dec. 3, 1999. This my friends is rock and roll week

IMHO.

Canuck

Canuck Gold (11/28/99; 17:45:45MDT - Msg ID:19829)
Steve H, Viper - Noon in London
Noon in London is 7:00am Eastern time.

Golden Truth (11/28/99; 17:38:20MDT - Msg ID:19828)
B.O.E GOLD SALE.
London opens in 7 1/2 hr's from now + or - a few minutes.

Golden Truth (11/28/99; 17:35:24MDT - Msg ID:19827)
B.O.E GOLD SALE.
London opens in 7 1/2 hr's from now + or - a few minutes.

SteveH (11/28/99; 17:25:38MDT - Msg ID:19826)
Viper
I believe it is noon in England or 7:00am EST.

Canuck (11/28/99; 17:25:02MDT - Msg ID:19825)
Viper
Pretty sure noon London time; 6:00am eastern. Please wait for others to confirm.

Golden Truth (11/28/99; 17:22:14MDT - Msg ID:19824)
Gold Down Again.
GOLD down >80cents ahead of the B.O.E sale???
What do they know that we don,t, looks like the P.O.G is going to be heading lower again. This really sucks!
G.T

Viper (11/28/99; 17:15:01MDT - Msg ID:19823)
BOE Gold Auction
Anyone know the time of the auction? (England time) OR where I can get that info.? Thanks!

YGM (11/28/99; 17:11:15MDT - Msg ID:19822)
Jeez Teacher...
Just when I think I'm Finally....
...getting somewhere w/ my economics and financial studies, thanks to ORO, Aristotle, Aragorn, FOA, T.C. and so many others here, you throw in NanoTechnology 101. All you educated wizards are going to overload my simple brain......but then that wouldn't be hard to do I suppose.....I shall struggle to keep up all the same.....(:-))

Goldfly (11/28/99; 16:59:15MDT - Msg ID:19821)
Oops! Guess that really didn't work

Hmmmmmm. How's this look?
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/27199911/ANOTHERPAGE.html

Goldfly (11/28/99; 16:59:02MDT - Msg ID:19820)
Oops! Guess that really didn't work

Hmmmmmm. How's this look?
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/27199911/ANOTHERPAGE.html

Goldfly (11/28/99; 16:43:34MDT - Msg ID:19819)
Ooo ooo ooo!

haa haa haaaaaaa.....

Goldfly (11/28/99; 16:42:20MDT - Msg ID:19818)
Has anyone ever tried this
http://www.usagold.com/ http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/27199911/default.html

Two links at a time?

ET (11/28/99; 16:22:43MDT - Msg ID:19817)
AEL

Hey AEL - how ya doin? I saw your HTML test. I tried something similar a day or two ago. Any ideas on what is happening to the text from the time it is posted until it reappears on the browser? I thought perhaps a completely formatted HTML message might survive but it didn't. It would sure be handy to be able to use some of the features of HTML in the posted messages, particularly multiple links and columnar data. Let me know if you get this figured out.

ET

ORO (11/28/99; 16:08:19MDT - Msg ID:19816)
Rarity and origin - beesting AEL Peter Asher - on Nanotech
I did a short review of nanotech separations technology some 3 years ago. I have learned a bit about it. I can say that there is enormous potential in some fields of chemistry, and that eventually there will be a a nanotech revolution such as touted here. The breakthroughs required are still miles away and we are but snails heading there at a snail's pace.

Back to the significance for us. Gold silver and other PMs are elements, their rarity comes from a combination of actual rarity of occurence of the elements and their level of dispersion. The point being that the cost of obtaining them in concentrated form is rather high. Nanotechnology is not capable of affecting either of the issues at the base of the values of these metals - ever. It is probably thermodynamically impossible, though I did not check that out.

Gems
What they can do in the field of gems, is build crystals, instead of the two current alternative technologies - mining and lab-grown crystals. The gems themselves are not valued by their intrinsic content, and have not been since the advent of synthetically grown non-mineral crystals first came about as commercially viable some 20 years ago. The stones get their value today from the doccumentation of source and rarity from that source. They are graded by specialists to determine origin and quality just as rare coins are. The rather garrish looking lab grown ruby and the way too clear emerald grown in the same lab are not priced as natural equivalents, though they are chemically identical.

One of the problems of using nanotech is the high level of friction or viscosity - what appears to us as easy to move through, air, is thicker than pea soup on the nano level. The energy (and cooling) required for each nano-unit of work is very high - these are not the efficient systems some think them to be. Where the nanotech can shine is in targeted assembly of complex molecules and structures. In particular drugs, vitamins and chips, perhaps some day they will make possible quicker genetic engineering so that the variety of getetic traits available is far greater than can now be obtained economically.

beesting (11/28/99; 15:13:24MDT - Msg ID:19815)
AEL and Peter Asher--Overview of Nanotechnology--From Rutgers Unv.
http://nanotech.rutgers.edu/nanotech/intro.html
Came across this very informative link above,here are some excerpts quote:
"Chemists have been successful at synthesizing a wide range of compounds with atomic precision."
"While chemists have the ability to precisely sculpt small collections of atoms, there is currently no ability to extend this capability in a general way to structures of larger size."
Article discusses ribosome(living cell type things???) and assemblers and work with compounds only.(no elements)And uses of Nanotechnology in computers.

Comments: Pure Gold is an element!!!Compounds are made up of many elements of different amounts.Living things can create new and different compounds with the right intake.For humans it's, air first(a compound)water second(a compound)and food third(another compound)humans create many other compounds,in their body in the daily business of living.

In my lifetime(and I'm pretty old)only about 12 new elements have been discovered,most in the lab with new scientific equipment unavailable many years ago, and some from meteorites.
Alchemists have been trying for thousands of years to create Gold cheaply or any other valuable element.
Certain things have been created,but the cost is prohibitive on a large scale currently. On Kitco almost two years ago it was explained how Gold could be extracted from seawater,but again the cost was way more than the current price of Gold.(maybe if Gold ever goes over $10,000 per ounce.)
A diamond is crystalized carbon.
I have heard the rarest of crystals is a Gold crystal.Does anyone have any information about crystalized Gold?

Anyway to sum up,Nanotechnology in creating furniture and automobiles,is still in the distant future according to the above URL....Thank you for the posts.....beesting

ORO (11/28/99; 14:24:22MDT - Msg ID:19814)
SteveH - Tice
Bubble mechanics, key component- an asset against which one can borrow. The availability of underpriced debt brings the assets up, particularly when major stakes are taken up by captive money (index funds in the case of stocks).

This Run up in the techs, just like the July 98 and Dec-Jan 98 99 (respectively) run ups, are run ins of the shorts. After these are gone, there is a large unburdening of shares bought up on Delta Hedging of calls sold to market. These shares fall into a market devoid of buying power upon the successive option expiration dates.

The running in of the shorts is my key sign of a major top coming on, as is a low volatility premium on the OEX otions. The latter, as seen on the VIX, is an indicator of falling hedged stock purchases by institutions.

Phos - Kuwait and Saudi have royal famillies that have retained their own traditional treasuries and are a state within a state. Indeed, they are the actual core of their countries, the official structure being necessary to administer a complex system. The official structure is controlled by the core, which is the royals.
The international officialdom does not have to see the gold on the official country books to see that it is there, because they can follow it separately - to some extent. But we "small fry" do need to see it.

SteveH (11/28/99; 13:43:07MDT - Msg ID:19813)
Don't see gold mentioned here?
http://www.isi.org/publications/ir/50best.html
from above link:

The Fifty BEST Books of the Century
( SEE THE WORST )

1. Henry Adams, The Education of Henry Adams (1907)
Pessimism and nostalgia at the bright dawn of the twentieth century must have seemed bizarre to contemporaries. After a century of war, mass murder, and fanaticism, we know that Adams's insight was keen indeed.

2. C. S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man (1947)
Preferable to Lewis's other remarkable books simply because of the title, which reveals the true intent of liberalism.

3. Whittaker Chambers, Witness (1952)
The haunting, lyrical testament to truth and humanity in a century of lies (and worse). Chambers achieves immortality recounting his spiritual journey from the dark side (Soviet Communism) to the�in his eyes�doomed West. One of the great autobiographies of the millennium.

4. T.S. Eliot, Selected Essays, 1917-1932 (1932, 1950)
Here, one of the century's foremost literary innovators insists that innovation is only possible through an intense engagement of tradition. Every line of Eliot's prose bristles with intelligence and extreme deliberation.

5. Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History (1934-1961)
Made the possibility of a divine role in history respectable among serious historians. Though ignored by academic careerists, Toynbee is still read by those whose intellectual horizons extend beyond present fashions.

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism (1951)
A very big brain and not without flaws. Still, her account of the peculiarly modern phenomenon of "totalitarianism" forced many liberals to consider the sins of communism in the same category as those of fascism, and that is no small achievement.

Jacques Barzun, Teacher in America (1945)
Barzun fought a heroic struggle against the Germanization of the American university.

Walter Jackson Bate, Samuel Johnson (1975)
The most psychologically astute biography of one of the most psychologically astute writers who ever lived. In an age of debunking and trivializing biographies, Bate's beautifully written book stands out as a happy exception.

Cleanth Brooks & Robert Penn Warren, Understanding Poetry (1938)
Interpreting literature in the style of the New Criticism was the vehicle by which a half-century of Americans gained access to the intellectual life. This textbook by two of the brightest lights of the most important literary group in America this century�the Vanderbilt agrarians�has never been out of print.

Herbert Butterfield, The Whig Interpretation of History (1931)
Every day, in every way, things are getting better and better? No, and Butterfield provides the intellectually mature antidote to that premise of liberal historiography.

G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy (1908)
The master of paradox demonstrates that nothing is more "original" and "new" than Christian tradition.

Winston Churchill, The Second World War (1948-1953)
A work comprehensive in scope and intimate in detail by a master of English prose whose talents as an historian have been vastly underrated. Indispensable for understanding the twentieth century.

Frederick Copleston, S.J., A History of Philosophy (1946-53)
The most comprehensive, accurate, and readable history of philosophy, written by a philosopher who believed that the purpose of philosophy is the search for Truth.

Christopher Dawson, Religion and the Rise of Western Culture (1950)
An essential work of European history that shows how the rise of Christianity altered civilization in the West. Credits the Roman Catholic Church with keeping civilization alive after the fall of Rome and during the barbarian invasions.

Eamon Duffy, The Stripping of the Altars (1992)
Revisionist history as it was meant to be written: as a correction to centuries of Whig historiography. Demonstrates that the brute force of the state can destroy even the most beloved institutions. What do you know...Belloc was right.

Shelby Foote, The Civil War: A Narrative (1958-74)
The American Iliad

Douglas Southall Freeman, R. E. Lee (1934-35)
The tragic life of a great Southern traditionalist beautifully chronicled by a great Southern traditionalist.

Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom (1962)
They are connected, after all�a great anti-communist book.

Eugene Genovese, Roll, Jordan, Roll (1972)
The finest analysis of slave life and culture, the complexities of the master-slave relation, and the impact of slavery on American history that we are likely ever to have.

Frederick von Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty (1960)
Thoughtful reflections on the conditions and limitations of liberty in the modern world, written by a deeply cultured Austrian who found his home in the Anglo-Saxon world. The Summa of classical political economy in our century.

Will Herberg, Protestant, Catholic, Jew (1955)
The first sociologist to take religion in America seriously.

Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961)
Jacobs was the first to see that modernist architects and urban planners were creating not simply ugly buildings but entire urban environments unsuited to human communities.

Paul Johnson, Modern Times (1983)
Somehow the most personal, yet the most objective, history of our time

James Keegan, The Face of Battle (1976)
A tour de force of military history that often explains strategy and tactics in terms of culture.

Russell Kirk, The Conservative Mind (1953)
Did the impossible: showed a self-satisfied liberalism that conservatism in America could be intellectually respectable. A book that named a major political movement.

Arthur Lovejoy, The Great Chain of Being (1936)
The classic historical narrative of the coherent and complex worldview that lies at the foundation of the West.

Alasdair MacIntyre, After Virtue (1981)
Won a new hearing for virtue ethics after nearly two centuries of intellectual domination by Kantian morals. We live today in the time "After MacIntyre."

Dumas Malone, Jefferson and His Time (1948-81)
A masterpiece of monumental historical biography. Malone's prose, narrative, and analysis are wonderfully eighteenth-century in their balance and restraint.

H. L. Mencken, Prejudices (1919-27)
This century's greatest exhibition of satire in non-fiction, demonstrating extraordinary aesthetic and literary taste. The author had street smarts too. Ah, the glory that was Mencken.

Thomas Merton, The Seven-Storey Mountain (1948)
A Catholic convert and Trappist monk, Merton's natural gifts as a writer enabled him to introduce tens of thousands of readers to the spiritual fulfillment of contemplative life�a stunning achievement for an American.

Reinhold Niebuhr, The Nature and Destiny of Man (1941)
A biting critique of secular thought and a persuasive and inspiring exposition of man's Christian destiny.

Robert Nisbet, The Quest for Community (1953)
Anticipated all the concerns of contemporary communitarians and did so with the sophistication of the century's premier sociological imagination.

Flannery O�Connor, The Habit of Being (1978)
The beautiful letters of America's most profound writer this century. The best imaginable bedtime reading.

George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia (1952)
The savagely incisive song of a great writer's disillusionment with the bloody inhumanity of the Left.

Walker Percy, Lost in the Cosmos (1983)
True therapy for the therapeutic age. Percy shows that the best human life is being at home with our homelessness, not to mention that modern science, properly understood, need not have atheistic and materialist implications.

Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (1986)
This magisterial, balanced account of the world's most ambitious scientific project serves as a vigorous retort to those who make much of American naivet�or who would deny the American century.

Philip Rieff, The Triumph of the Therapeutic (1966)
A neglected classic. Rieff shows that the real danger to humanity in our time is not socialism but therapy.

George Santayana, Persons and Places: Fragments of Autobiography (1944)
Like everything else from the pen of George Santayana, Persons and Places is elegant, witty, perspicacious, and profound�a distinguished autobiography relating the tangled transatlantic life of one of the century's most original minds.

Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (1942)
A great economist presents a dark vision of politics in a book which is accurately reasoned and brilliantly written.

Leo Strauss, Natural Right and History (1953)
Strauss revealed the philosophical nerve of the Modern Project and retrieved the political dimension of classical philosophy.

William Strunk & E.B. White, The Elements of Style (1959)
An extraordinary little book that explains with clarity the use and misuse of the written word. In it the reader will not only learn the difference between such words as "while" and "although," and "which" and "that," but also find demonstrated beyond a doubt that language and civilization are inextricably intertwined.

Lionel Trilling, The Liberal Imagination (1950)
Trilling shows that literature is relevant to politics not because it affirms any political doctrine but because it provides a corrective to any political ideology whatsoever.

Frederick Jackson Turner, The Frontier in American History (1920)
Using as his primary sources beliefs that earlier had been felt rather than thought, Turner made those most American characteristics�optimism, grit, unflinching determination�central to the study of American history. One of the few truly original works of history this century.

Eric Voegelin, The New Science of Politics (1952)
Here, one of this century's most learned political philosophers powerfully critiques the modern quest for secular salvation.

Booker T. Washington, Up From Slavery (1901)
A classic of Southern autobiography describing one man's heroic and successful efforts to overcome the legacy of slavery.

James D. Watson, The Double Helix (1968)
An eminently readable book about the unraveling of DNA, one of the most important scientific discoveries of the century. The book also offers an interesting look at English society after the Second World War.

Edmund Wilson, Patriotic Gore (1962)
A careful reader of American literature works to restore our past.

Ludwig Wittgenstein, Philosophical Investigations (1953)
In a century littered with ill-considered arguments about the linguistic "construction of reality," this landmark of the later Wittgenstein stands in a wholly different category. At once ingenious, humane, and humble, it puts philosophy on the right track after the sins of Nietzsche, Heidegger, and others.

Tom Wolfe, The Right Stuff (1979)
The dazzling story of the test pilots and Mercury astronauts is narrated by Wolfe as a compelling affirmation of the American spirit and traditional values.

Malcolm X (with the assistance of Alex Haley), The Autobiography of Malcolm X (1965)
The spiritual journey of a sensitive and intelligent man who had to wrestle with his own demons and contradictions while battling the condescension of paternalist liberals and the enervating effects of the welfare state on his people.

Peter Asher (11/28/99; 13:39:15MDT - Msg ID:19812)
Blue Sky, AEL
Blue Sky; Thanks for the response, sounds like you found a good way to double up on the time your driving that rig. Speaking of Bova, He has a novel called "Privateer" that give a superb prognosis for space mining. I hope to create the time to elaborate on a thesis that if a massively inflated money supply were used to finance the birth of such an industry, (And/or Nanotech) It would be a paradigm vastly different then the ones we are discussing here. This is part of my ongoing 'platform' that it's not the Money Supply, it's what people do with it.

Follow the Goods and services, not just the money!

AEL � That sounds more like transmutation than Nanotech. Are we going to successful Nanotech Alchemy? "Lead to gold with NTA" And who will own that 'means of production"

From-- Peter Asher (1/17/99; 16:02:21MDT - Msg ID:1863)
The 6th Paradigm
"Whoever develops a method for extracting vastly larger amounts of energy from matter, without
creating radiation, will make Bill Gates look like he's sleeping under a bridge. Our solar system
has enough resources from the planets and the asteroids to support centuries of growth limited
only by reaction mass and by the ethics of exchange."

SteveH (11/28/99; 13:24:12MDT - Msg ID:19811)
Prudent Bear
Tice -- "Importantly, as the stocks with large option activity moved higher, particularly in the big NASDAQ and technology names, the writers of these call options were forced to aggressively purchase the underlying stocks to hedge market exposure. This has undoubtedly led to huge borrowings that have helped power the meltup. In fact, we would not be at all surprised if this type of borrowing has been a major factor responsible for the financial sector's massive commercial paper issuance since September. This may also explain the surge in money market fund assets that have increased $74 billion, or at an annualized rate of about 40%, during the past six weeks. Keep in mind also that M3 money supply over the past six weeks has increased $113.4 billion, or at an annualized rate of almost 16%. It is simply not a coincidence that over the past few months we have had unprecedented derivative trading, an historic meltup in exactly those stocks with the largest derivative positions and, at the same time, a wild expansion in bank security credit, money market assets and money supply."

Phos (11/28/99; 13:14:28MDT - Msg ID:19810)
THC/ORO - Kuwait Gold Reserves
http://www.gold.org/Pages/Home1f.htm
If you go to the World Gold Council's site and download/view the 'Central Bank Gold Reserves' PDF document, you will see that Kuwait's official gold reserves have been 79 tonnes since 1978 (Table 2 pg. 19). In 1976, reserves were 173 tonnes but dropped the following year to 78 tonnes and were steady thereafter. I suspect there is a considerable private holding among the wealthy Kuwaiti families though just as there is in Saudi Arabia and that is where much of Middle Eastern gold is, in private hands.

I read recently that the Vatican gold holdings are large and are mostly leased out (perhaps semi-permanently). Does anyone know how much gold the Vatican has or where one might find numbers?

Peter Asher (11/28/99; 13:14:09MDT - Msg ID:19809)
Mr. G
Your at your best when your in Vent Mode.

>>>>>

My 2 cents. Life is life. Whether in a difficult marriage or a corrupt country, you make your
adjustments, and learn where you have any chance to have an effect, choosing your risk level.
(On rare occasions, it is in an heroic act of self-sacrifice.) We are just among the luckier ones in
history who've had the individual luxury to live in comfort, and get to spout brave-sounding
opinions that have no real consequence or risk to our own lives. <<<<<

Well said truth in that one.

As to magic in the woods, you must know, being nearby, that it's only Magic for Steelhead and Salmon right now. Our area was isolated for two days and alot of Phones are still out.

If we're still there in April, when the sun comes out again, maybe we'll host another.

Peter Asher (11/28/99; 13:02:19MDT - Msg ID:19808)
Journyman
Allegedly, Homogenizing creates particles so tiny that they go through the walls of the intestines into the blood stream. The solution is to mix pure heavy cream (not ultra) with nonfat milk to what ever % you want.

It is so typical of our time, that science invents a health hazard to alleviate a hassle as mundane as shaking the container before use

Mr Gresham (11/28/99; 12:53:39MDT - Msg ID:19807)
Red? Dead? Use your Head!
http://www.usagold.com/WhitherGold.html
Sorry for mixing topics (the link is Thanks to ORO's recommendation to read Antal Fekete -- I've had it open in a separate window for three days, getting through it -- it's great education!)

[VENT MODE ON]

"Better Dead than Red" being seconded in this forum? I'd expect better in this place that is able to dissect propaganda and false conundrums of many types. (I know Ari pulled it out of the air as an example of a type of statement, not as him advocating it.)

We have criticized the post-1971 U.S. system (post-1968? post-1944? post-1933?) because of its unfree economics and deceptive immoralities. Not living up to founding ideals. Should we all have taken hemlock?

No. So we are on the better end of a spectrum with other unfree peoples in other times and places.

Should everyone in Hungary have committed mass suicide? In what year? 1957? 1968? 1988? If you realize your neighbors are not going to rise up with you and install "freedom" any time soon, what should you do?

In other words, I'm asking any defender of that piece of propaganda slime (used to extort a trillion bucks of "defense" welfare out of U.S. workers) to say EXACTLY at what time an Eastern European resident ought to have awakened and realized that -- recognizing change in his lifetime to be improbable -- he ought to do himself in.

Post-WW2 disarmers had no effective power. They were easily neutralized, and had no hand on the appropriations spigot. "Better Red than dead" was a popgun line against the policy of MAD "Mutually Assured Destruction." Soviet Union was hardly ever a serious contender for world domination -- just an expensive adversary. U.S. military got what it needed, and many times more. We WERE able to maintain our type of freedom, and could have done so fairly cheaply. Cold War could have been stalemated just as effectively at one-fifth the cost. Most of the rest was pork barrel. "All politics (and pork) is local," Tip O'Neill taught us. Cold War was mostly about internal power allocations, and organization and regimentation of U.S. society. Same types try to climb the ladder of power in any society, just a very weird ladder in state "socialist" nations.

My 2 cents. Life is life. Whether in a difficult marriage or a corrupt country, you make your adjustments, and learn where you have any chance to have an effect, choosing your risk level. (On rare occasions, it is in an heroic act of self-sacrifice.) We are just among the luckier ones in history who've had the individual luxury to live in comfort, and get to spout brave-sounding opinions that have no real consequence or risk to our own lives.

[VENT MODE OFF]

Sorry, I should probably just delete the whole post -- but I believe it would be impossible to sustain a sane and free economic system (our larger Topic) if you can't keep the political animals in check, and that means dealing with the propaganda they throw at us. I would like to see economic conservatives/libertarians steer away from blank check endorsement of things military and apply the same astute critique you have used against liberal/Keynesian economics. Otherwise, many hard-earned gains may be wasted/lost. Unexamined prejudices and leanings are expensive!

Anyway, too much coffee and mental agitation on a lazy Sunday A.M. -- back to you, Goldhearts!

Final thought -- if you've read this far: Weren't we also hashing over the Flation debate, and pondering the relative merits of Silver, as now, just before the September Gold leap? You guys are gunning for a repeat, right? Now if Peter would just host another gathering at his place, we could see if there really is magic in these woods we wander...

Peter Asher (11/28/99; 12:53:30MDT - Msg ID:19806)
Get'em while they still have the money
http://news.excite.com/news/r/991128/12/business-stocks-ipo
In five weeks, even an IPO may be a case of "Sell to whom"

"This time of year we should see real dregs and that is not the case,"
said Irv DeGraw, research director at WorldFinanceNet.com, a Web
site specializing in financial research. "We still have all types of
underwriters putting out deals with quality companies ... Who would
have believed that this late in the year?"

"Usually when the deal market gets long in the tooth, you see
secondary and tertiary issues ... ," said Christopher Ely, co-manager
of Loomis Sayles Small-Cap Growth Fund. "But it is unusual -- part
of it is the IPO market is hot."

YGM (11/28/99; 12:45:27MDT - Msg ID:19805)
Y2K Cash Runs By The Elderly
Older and Wiser???
Published Friday, November 26, 1999,
in the Akron Beacon Journal.

��
Y2K fears may start cash run on banks

� Elderly are warned not to take large sums out of their accounts

Press

CINCINNATI: Bankers say they are expecting some people to withdraw large sums of money as 2000 approaches because of fears that the switch to a new year could bring widespread computer problems and cause chaos.

Some elderly customers of the Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bank have notified officials there that they expect to withdraw most, if not all, of their savings between Thanksgiving and New Year's, said Linda Gibbons, a new account representative.

The bank has been counseling customers to keep their money in their accounts, which are federally insured. If people are insistent about having cash, the bank will ask them for 24 hours' notice before producing the money.

``Most of them have been through the Depression and are quite concerned about the money being lost,'' said Gibbons, of Fifth Third's branch in Latonia, Ky. ``We've had numbers of people saying they're concerned and intend to take out money.''

Nationally, four in 10 bank customers expect to withdraw extra money during the year-end transition period, according to a survey by the Gallup polling organization that was commissioned by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The Fed has an extra $50 billion on hand to keep up with expected demand.

Federal officials say withdrawing large amounts is unnecessary and could encourage thieves. But bank officials anticipate that some people will take out $10,000 or more. They hope to persuade most of the public to withdraw less than $500 for the New Year's weekend.

``We really don't believe people will need it. But it's our responsibility to provide currency,'' said Federal Reserve Board spokeswoman Rose Pianalto.

The worries are prompted by fear of the Y2K computer bug, which might cause computer programs to read the double zero in 2000 and assume it's 1900.

Police have been talking with bank officials and in some cases have been offering to counsel bank customers about the danger of holding large sums of money.

The Ohio attorney general's office has received complaints from people saying scam artists have attempted to convince them that their banks may not be prepared for operation after 2000 begins. The criminals then try to encourage such people to reveal their bank account numbers as a way of ``protecting'' the money.

In one ruse, criminals ask bank customers to withdraw large sums of money as part of a police investigation of a bank's security measures. Posing as police or bank officials, the criminals then seize the money from the unwitting customer.

``If a person is taking out more money than they normally would, we would basically read a statement to them cautioning them that banks and police never conduct investigations by asking people to take out cash,'' said PNC Bank spokeswoman Jeanne Stricker. ``If something appears unusual, we try to caution people.''

gidsek (11/28/99; 12:14:47MDT - Msg ID:19804)
Off Topic HDTV
Last OT post, I promise

"Still, I feel you are referring to "home theaters" rather than Movie houses."

Nope, our "home theatre" seats 954, Gwenyth Paltrow looked great 20feet high, truly. If you'd like a peak at the technology we are touring North AM this winter with the "little brother" bottom of the line Digital Light Processing projector (it's fairly portable as two people can lift it). Drop me a line at gidsek@hotmail.com and I can tell you when our show is coming to your city or town.

gidsek

YGM (11/28/99; 11:54:39MDT - Msg ID:19803)
Excerpt from Economist Post
Add Y2k and Embedded Chips in Rigs/Refineries/Pipelines etc.
...and then where would inflation be driven...3% or much higher??..........YGM.

(snippet)
The impact of higher oil prices varies by country too. Perhaps the biggest risk is in America, where rising oil prices may push the inflation rate higher than is currently predicted. The slide in oil prices in recent years was one of the main factors that helped to hold down American inflation, so prolonging the country's long economic expansion. That positive factor is now going into reverse. Higher oil prices have already helped to lift America's inflation rate to 2.6% in October, up from 1.5% a year ago; the latest rise in oil prices could well push it above 3%. The core inflation rate remains relatively subdued, but headline inflation could still spill into wages and hence other prices. If it does, the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates by more than is now forecast. So OPEC could yet do more damage than most people expect.

Journeyman (11/28/99; 11:52:32MDT - Msg ID:19802)
Milk, slogans as truth @ Aristotle
See how well those slogans replace truth or anything else! More than 60% of the population can't digest lactose and a large portion are allergic to cow's milk. Also, the way USA milk is processed (pasturization first, followed by homogenization) releases a so-called X-enzyme, 1st recognized just after WWII, which begins causing atherosclerotic damage and plaques in even very young Americans. Milk: it does a body BAD! Regards, Journeyman

YGM (11/28/99; 11:46:40MDT - Msg ID:19801)
From the Economist/Oil Market
@ J.Orlin Grabbe Homepage

Oil Market

Oil Is Getting Pricey--Who Cares?

We don't need no stinkin' oil.

COULD the bad old days of stagflation be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December and its highest since the Gulf war in 1991. This near-tripling of oil prices evokes scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-80, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global recession. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

Their absence is even more striking given that, at the start of the year, many commentators (including, rather prominently, this newspaper) expected prices to fall, not rise. OPEC's agreement to cut output has so far proved more durable than many predicted. The oil price was given another nudge up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports in a showdown with the UN over sanctions. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. The sharp rise in oil prices follows an equally sharp collapse over the previous two years, when prices fell by more than half to their lowest level in real terms since before the 1973 shock. Even now, prices are not much higher than in early 1997.

Moreover, in most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies�to which heavy industry has shifted�have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.

The impact on the output of oil-importing countries also depends on whether oil producers save or spend their windfalls. In 1973 and 1979 many OPEC countries already had current-account surpluses, and most of their extra oil revenues were saved. Today, many have large current-account deficits (Saudi Arabia's hit 10% of GDP last year). Cash-strapped producers are more likely to spend their windfalls on imports from rich countries.

One more reason not to lose sleep over the surge in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backdrop of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizeable chunk of the world is only just emerging from recession. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanged from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

Refining the argument

Even if the impact will be more modest than in the past, dearer oil will still leave some mark. Inflation will be higher and output lower than they would be otherwise. The OECD's rule of thumb is that a $10 increase, if sustained for a year, would increase the inflation rate in rich economies by about half a percentage point and knock about a quarter-point off growth.

The impact of higher oil prices varies by country too. Perhaps the biggest risk is in America, where rising oil prices may push the inflation rate higher than is currently predicted. The slide in oil prices in recent years was one of the main factors that helped to hold down American inflation, so prolonging the country's long economic expansion. That positive factor is now going into reverse. Higher oil prices have already helped to lift America's inflation rate to 2.6% in October, up from 1.5% a year ago; the latest rise in oil prices could well push it above 3%. The core inflation rate remains relatively subdued, but headline inflation could still spill into wages and hence other prices. If it does, the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates by more than is now forecast. So OPEC could yet do more damage than most people expect.

The Economist, Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 1999

AEL (11/28/99; 10:50:04MDT - Msg ID:19800)
nanotechnology
FYI: an exchange I had with a woman who had mentioned nanotechnology...

She wrote:
> The minute The Breakthrough with
> molecular nano technology happens all currency, coins, metal and
> stones will be worthless. There will be no warning. -- Paula
> (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 10, 1999.

He wrote:
> hmmmmm! you mean the little nano-machines can be made to make
> ANYthing, absolutely ANYthing, including (currency, gold, etc.)?
> interesting idea.

She wrote:
> Yap. The information I have read said we can all have a Hope Diamond
> and as many of them as we could want. The scientists working on mnt
> bought houses, drive jalopies, refuse to buy furniture, and do not buy
> precious metals and stones. ["mnt" = molecular nanotechnology (?)]

He wrote:
> You say that these scientists "drive jalopies" and "refuse to buy
> furniture" ... because: 1) they expect soon to have nano-devices to
> MAKE that stuff for them, cheaply (seems to me that production of
> very complex stuff like that would be at least some years down the
> line), or 2) they expect to be able to make gold and money very soon
> (more plausible in the short term; metals are simple, currency is
> only moderately-complex), and then they can go out and buy all the
> hot cars and furniture they want, in the brief interval before the
> (nanotech-induced) total inflationary collapse of all metals and
> currencies?

She wrote (disecting what he wrote):
> > furniture" ... because: 1) they expect soon to have nano-devices to
> > MAKE that stuff for them,
>
> Make the stuff for us all.
>
> > cheaply (seems to me that production of
> > very complex stuff like that would be at least some years down the
> > line),
>
> Car engines are not complex.
>
> > or 2) they expect to be able to make gold and money very soon
> > (more plausible in the short term; metals are simple, currency is only
> > moderately-complex), and then they can go out and buy all the hot
> > cars and furniture they want, in the brief interval before the
> > (nanotech-induced) total inflationary collapse of all metals and
> > currencies?
>
> All materialism will be worthless but for land and some form of electronic
> currency.
>
> The best book I came across on the subject is Nano, by Ed Regis, ISBN
> 0-316-73858-1
>
> He said it will happen as if it were a revolution and without warning. Few
> will have a job and everyone will have food. Beware of the book, by the
> time one has closed it, one feels like taking to the streets demanding
> "Nano Boxes Now!"

AEL (11/28/99; 10:47:44MDT - Msg ID:19799)
html test
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rsjacksr (11/28/99; 10:01:24MDT - Msg ID:19798)
Re: gidsek (11/27/99; 19:36:27MDT - Msg ID:19777)
HDTV and sliver
gidsek. Thanks for the update. I've been out of that arena (hdtv) for a while. Still, I feel you are referring to "home theaters" rather than Movie houses. The industry has made great strides. And like you, I sit at the feet of giants grasping words of wisdom as I might on this great forum, learning as much as I can and only attempting to contribute (call that being chicken) where I may.

Simply Me (11/27/99; 22:49:22MDT - Msg ID:19783)
"Better Dead Than Red". I concur. Being a child of that era it was as stated.

To everyone who contribute on this Forum. Thank You

Tanglewild (11/28/99; 8:22:58MDT - Msg ID:19797)
Aristotle
http://www.agnostic.org/BIBLEG-15.htm
Perhaps the quote about civilization and being relearned comes from the 1968 book by Will and Ariel Durant, The Lessons of History. A quote:

"If education is the transmission of civilization, we are unquestionably progressing. Civilization is not
inherited; it has to be learned and earned by each generation anew; if the transmission should be
interrupted for one century, civilization would die, and we should be savages again. So our finest
contemporary achievement is our unprecedented expenditure of wealth and toil in the provision of
higher education for all. .�.�. We may not have excelled the selected geniuses of antiquity, but we have
raised the level and average of knowledge beyond any age in history.
None but a child will complain that our teachers have not yet eradicated the errors and superstitions of
ten thousand years. The great experiment has just begun, and it may yet be defeated by the high birth rate
of unwilling or indoctrinated ignorance. .�.�. Consider education not as the painful accumulation of facts
and dates and reigns, nor merely the necessary preparation of the individual to earn his keep in the world,
but as the transmission of our mental, moral, technical, and aesthetic heritage as fully as possible to as
many as possible, for the enlargement of man's understanding, control, embellishment, and enjoyment of
life."

Regards,
Tw

The Stranger (11/28/99; 8:17:39MDT - Msg ID:19796)
Ari On Supercurrencies
I think your assessment makes perfect sense. Still, I suspect that this improbable alignment may be a foreshadowing of where we are headed. Given the havoc created by fiat currency volatility, the gold backed supercurrency concept seems like a logical objective to my feeble mind.

The Stranger (11/28/99; 7:58:32MDT - Msg ID:19795)
Coincidence?
When world markets closed last week, the Dollar, the Yen and the Euro were all trading within a whisker of par vs. one another. Gold was just a scootch away from $300. There has been so much talk of new "architecture" and a three supercurrency world with fixed rates of exchange backed by gold. One wonders. Is this extraordinary alignment just an unlikely coincidence, or are things being made ready for some big changes in the new millennium?

Aristotle (11/28/99; 7:48:19MDT - Msg ID:19794)
Goldsun, Peter, and Simply Me--"Quotes." Oh, and ORO, too.
In my last post, I'll be the first to admit that my two examples of advertising and propaganda slogans were not the best to deliver my exact point that these types of phrases generally rely on repitition to instill the recipient with a sense of truth where truth might not otherwise be present. While in the process of posting, I drew a blank for examples and those were the best I could produce in the spur of the moment. "Milk: It does a body good," is probably quite true and a solid component of the conventional wisdom. A better example would have been the slogan for the ladies' anti-perspirant "Secret." According to Madison Avenue, it's "strong enough for a man, but made for a woman." Certainly lacking the elements of Universal Truth that I mentioned in the previous post, and therefore relies on repetion to get the job done. As for the propaganda example, the "Better dead than red" slogan might, like the milk example, also seem at once as being along the right track. "Communism," after all, is no way to run a Republic. <grin> As to the comments about its source, like I said, I was drawing a blank for good examples at the time, so I settled for what came to mind. I had recently watched an episode of M*A*S*H in which Frank Burns was supposed to be training a small group of Koreans some rudimentary english so that they could be medical assistants. "I will get the doctor," and "Do you have a fever?" As some of you might recall, Frank hated that job, and took it in his own direction--"Get us out of the U.N.," and "Better dead than red." (Hawkeye had some of his own fun, and during his turn taught them "Frank Burns eats worms.") That's my side of that propaganda tale...nothing more, nothing less.

Peter, on "Civilization is not inherited; it must be relearned by each new generation." it may or may not be something I've mentioned here before. I've certainly conveyed the idea to others often enough--though I don't recall where I first encountered it or what notable person gets the credit. I recall having read it, and later writing it down as best I could remember for future recollection. For a long time it was on a scrap of paper on the wall near my computer, but the scrap is now long gone. I wish I could give you more details, but have none.

ORO, bravo on this: "...my contention that US foreign debt and current accounts deficit are the dollar supply which is balanced by demand from emerging market debt at loan shark interest rates, are the key to US prosperity. The debt of rapidly industrializing and growing emerging markets provides both much of the fuel for US economic growth, and provides the vacu-u-u-ous [I can almost hear the echo!] dollar with a facade of value. Most dollars circulating in the world are not used to buy US products but to buy products of other countries (those that actually produce something) so that these can repay $ denominated debt to Europeans and Japanese who were stuck with these dollars in the 70s and 80s."

Also on this: "Breaking of the downward trend in the Euro/dollar would be the sign for the end of the dollar." I think, too, if the dollar is allowed to slide much futher against the yen. Would you tend to agree that the yen has essentially become a U.S. franchise? In a world of fiat currencies, I see two types: those that are in the upper echelon (and widely held in international exchange reserves), and those that aren't. Under a global scheme of fiat currencies, there's a fair degree of institutional incentive to bail water together--lest they all go down with the ship. The non-reserve currencies are already floating overboard in the sea, treading water at exchange rates that probably come close to their relative values. The goal of the upper echelon currencies is to stay in the ranks of reserve currencies in order to enjoy the attendant privileges. Because the euro was born out of a union of eleven currencies of both echelons, and by all accounts is a currency of a different stripe with its own private "lifeboat."

But with the yen fundamentally a subsidiary of the U.S. dollar, it can scarcely allow the dollar to plunge against the yen, or else the whole ship goes down. After all, the exported U.S. dollars absorbed by the rest of the world are good for four things primarily: Indebted nations use them to repay past debt, they are used to purchase oil, they are used to invest in U.S. assets, and they are useful to buy reasonably-priced toys at the Japanese store given the prevailing exchange rate. As these uses diminish, the international willingness to accumulate or hold dollars also diminishes, propelling the situation into a downward spiral. Japan would suffer not only the destruction of their primary reserve value, but also an initial reduction in J-store shoppers. This would be a blow because many nations simply aren't accustomed to thinking in terms of favoring their real goods over the money they get in exchange--many would favor a local currency devaluation to facilitate the exports of goods for the import of currency. Seemingly rare is the Middle-eastern wisdom "We would rather keep the oil than have the paper money." Perhaps Americans are of this school of thought also, but from a slightly different perspective--"We would rather have your goods instead of our own paper money."

I realize that you weren't implying this with your parity comments, but it gives me a good excuse to share my comments on the matter. Regarding the unusual approach of parity at 1 dollar, 1 euro, and 100 yen, my thought is that it is of no significance other than a psychological curiosity--a benchmark that can be cheered for the same reason we enjoy watching our car odometers turn over various multiples of 10,000 miles. Some people talk about the parity as though it were a possible (or necesary) precursor to some greater monetary event--perhaps a global currency union or whatnot. Not only does the dollar have too much baggage for the euro to tolerate a fixed attachment at one-to-one, but were such a thing in the works, the attainment of parity would seem to be the least of the conserns or prerequisites. For example, when the single currency was formed from the eleven member currencies, they were fixed at nothing that resembled parity, as the table below confirms.

1.000000 Euroland Euro =
1.955830 German Mark,
0.787564 Irish Punt,
40.33990 Belgian Franc,
1936.270 Italian Lira,
40.33990 Luxembourg Franc,
2.203710 Dutch Guilder,
166.3860 Spanish Peseta,
13.76030 Austrian Schilling,
6.559570 French Franc,
5.945730 Finnish Markka,
200.4820 Portuguese Escudo.

I don't know if anyone was seriously fretting about the possibility of these currencies being fixed, but in any event, I don't think they should worry any moreso as parity draws nearer. For what it's worth, on friday the euro fell as low as $1.0082, while the dollar fell as low as 101.31 yen. Compared to each other, some currencies thrive and some currencies dive, but relative to Gold they'll all be taking a bath before the chapter is over.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Number Six (11/28/99; 6:58:50MDT - Msg ID:19793)
BOE Farce....... UK visit...
Canuck, I must be a useless gambler because you've lost me completely!!!

I like your Doh! scenriao too :o)

BTW I just got back to the USA from a trip to the UK and my personal experience was that the ordinaty people simply didn't *care* about the BOE auction, or the fact that *THEIR* (my) gold was being given away at these ridiculous prices over the last few months... that's the most shocking thing to me... the gutter press (Daily Mirror, Star, Sun etc.) don't seem to give a monkey's...

Yup the establishment controlled media are truly doing a fine job of perpetuating the barbarous relic myth.

One last thing... the press were also touting the absurdity that the Euro was "finished" as a currency (it has declined markedly recently), and despite PM Blair wanting the Brits to join the Euro currency it seems that the average person is keen to stay independent and keep the pound...

This puts Blair between a rock and a hard place as he has promised that the UK will not join the Euro-peons without a referendum... one which Labour (Blair) will lose...

so he is waiting and hoping and looking for an opportunity to change public opinion... whatever that may be :o)

Later,

Canuck (11/28/99; 6:40:25MDT - Msg ID:19792)
BOE auction #3
Interesting posts over at G-E of late regarding auction.

"Dutch" format of the BOE auction is as follows:

The 25 tonnes are allocated to the highest bidders at a price of the lowest successful(winning) bid.

Examples:

5 tonnes $1,000
5 tonnes $350
5 tonnes $340
5 tonnes $330
5 tonnes $305
5 tonnes $298
5 tonnes $290
5 tonnes $275
5 tonnes $270
5 tonnes $265

25 tonnes sold at 305, 50 tonnes bid = oversubscribed x 2.

10 tonnes $1,000
10 tonnes $900
10 tonnes $350
10 tonnes $325
10 tonnes $315
10 tonnes $298
10 tonnes $288
10 tonnes $270
10 tonnes $250
10 tonnes $220

25 tonnes sold at 350, bidder #3 gets 5 of 10, 100 tonnes bid, oversubscribed x 4.

The possible playouts are endless, I like this one.

25 tonnes $400
25 tonnes $370
25 tonnes $350
25 tonnes $330
25 tonnes $300
25 tonnes $298
25 tonnes $260
25 tonnes $250
25 tonnes $220
25 tonnes $210

25 tonnes sold at 400, oversubscribed x 10

There is a rumour Ashanti is placing an 'open' highest bid.

24 tonnes X
5 tonnes $305
5 tonnes $298
x x
x x

What a play, Ashanti gets 24 tonnes at $305.

24 tonnes at 1,000
24 tonnes at 900
5 tonnes at 298
x x
x x

Oh no, 24 tonnes bought at $900, Doooohh!!

Thoughts?

Blue Sky (11/28/99; 6:35:04MDT - Msg ID:19791)
Peter Asher re: nano technology
I believe Ben Bova wrote a book based on nano-t and the moon. I listen to several books-on-tape a week so many titles escape me. If memory serves me it was not up to the level of his Mars book.
The weight of this past weeks discussion truly has required some heavy lifting in the gray matter.
Grasping what handholds I can find, I continue the climb.
Thanks to all and a late Thanksgiving wish to all.
Blue Sky

THC (11/28/99; 4:08:04MDT - Msg ID:19790)
To Oro
Good morning!

(Actually good evening for me, as I live in Japan)

"I encourage the re-posters of my "stuff" to other sites to continue to do so, but to avoid "giving it all away". Let them come in and browse, rummage in the archives, perhaps post questions or remarks, and get the benefit of exposure to this unique milieu."

OK, I understand and agree. I have so far "mined" about 100 pages of your work from this site, and that is just from November and October! It will certainly take a while for me to digest so much "high density" commentary, but I am truly delighted with your contributions and sharing. Thank you so much.

I will ask for your permission when "sharing" anything more than "tidbits" of your work at other forums.

However, I do feel that your past work is an excellent resource, and that it should be more readily available for those interested. I would strongly support creating a dedicated "Oro" archive here at Usagold or elsewhere.

Cheers!

THC

ORO (11/28/99; 2:48:06MDT - Msg ID:19789)
More from the BIS - the united front
http://www.bis.org/press/p991108.htm
Also see
http://www.bis.org/press/p991105.htm
http://www.bis.org/publ/plcy07.htm

BIS membership expansion

Banco Central de la Rep�blica Argentina
European Central Bank
Bank Indonesia
Bank Negara Malaysia
Bank of Thailand

Previously, Peoples Bank of China, with which the BIS now has cordial "friendly" advisory relationships. The presence of Crocket at the meetings is significant. It shows the level of importance of this.

ORO (11/28/99; 2:34:33MDT - Msg ID:19788)
THC - reposting my posts
I suggest that routing people here and to earlier and more current posts on Kitco would be the better choice to having me spread thinly over the many sites available.

I encourage the re-posters of my "stuff" to other sites to continue to do so, but to avoid "giving it all away". Let them come in and browse, rummage in the archives, perhaps post questions or remarks, and get the benefit of exposure to this unique milieu.

ORO (11/28/99; 2:26:44MDT - Msg ID:19787)
Bugs in my writing.... here's a patch
Lending bubble:
-*Rising* long-term interest rates in Europe and the United States [because of ?] issuing activity in the international securities markets in the third quarter of 1999.
-Through Q3 99 over whole of 98. I think it comes to 33% increase in *lending volume* to 2.4 $t/yr

Note that 2.4 $t/yr is 10% of world GDP.

ORO (11/28/99; 2:22:54MDT - Msg ID:19786)
BIS Q3 report + US losing the edge in software
http://www.bis.org/press/index.htm
International Banking and Financial Market Developments
Third Quarter 1999

Lending bubble:
-long-term interest rates in Europe and the United States [because of ?] issuing activity in the international securities markets in the third quarter of 1999.
-Through Q3 99 over whole of 98. I think it comes to 33% increase in rates to 2.4 $t/yr
-The international bond market recovered rapidly with large benchmark issues leading the surge in the primary market.
-Much of the year's expansion in international business arose from the funding operations of financial institutions. See concurrent explosion in US debt of financial institutions.
-The "need to boost capital ratios, to finance expansion into new areas and to fund corporate mergers and acquisitions has led banks to return in force to the securities markets".

Signs of stress:
-Spreads on US dollar swaps in particular exceeded the levels reached during autumn 1998. "extraordinary widening"
-Financial markets troubled by a succession of disturbing announcements -July, Daewoo, Korea's second largest conglomerate, defaulted on its domestic and foreign loans, triggering a run on investment trusts .

Euro dollar war front:
The laying of the Euro debt trap:
Euro money supply expansion and Euro debt boom displacing Yen (first of all) and Dollar. The Euro rises in lending volume; "Business in the US dollar continued to exceed that in the euro in the third quarter, but that margin narrowed. ...making the international bond market virtually a two-currency market."
- Since this creates much fresh Euro supply, it falls in value against dollar and especially Yen. Until it reverses...
- "statistics available for the second quarter of 1999 confirm the recovery of ... lending to the non-bank sector ... there was an unusually large decline in interbank claims, which can be attributed partly to the transition to the euro and to a cutback in Japanese inter-office transactions. International banking activity was also influenced by banks� further retrenchment from emerging market economies." Where debt repudiation continues, and indebtedness in foreign currencies is falling.
In my view, the $ denominated debt repudiation through straight repayment, default (e.g. Daewoo), and debt refinancing in Euro, will have negative consequences for the dollar. For any who may remember the inflation adjusted trade weighted dollar chart, and my contention that US foreign debt and current accounts deficit are the dollar supply which is balanced by demand from emerging market debt at loan shark interest rates, are the key to US prosperity. The debt of rapidly industrializing and growing emerging markets provides both much of the fuel for US economic growth, and provides the vacu-u-u-ous dollar with a facade of value. Most dollars circulating in the world are not used to buy US products but to buy products of other countries (those that actually produce something) so that these can repay $ denominated debt to Europeans and Japanese who were stuck with these dollars in the 70s and 80s.
The US attempts to win back South America from the Europeans through the offer of seigniorage sharing will be rebuffed by the South Americans as another US trick in a long line stretching over one hundred years. With advice from Euroland, they are not likely to take up the offer.
In the meantime, the Japanese and Europeans who have just gotten some of these dollars back from emerging market debtors are using it to buy real business assets in the US, expecting it to be a good platform for export.

So long as the Euro is declining in this slow motion manner, we can take it to mean that the expansion of ex-European Euro denominated debt is continuing. Breaking of the downward trend in the Euro/dollar would be the sign for the end of the dollar. If there was an intentional setting of nominal currency values, then at parity with $1=1Euro=100Yen, we should see either a convergence through gold, or through a fixed exchange system (equally basket of currencies serving as reserve unit for the international markets). I don't expect the latter, but who knows.

US computer bug industry:
Last issue of Business Week had a marvelous article about the realities of the US Software bug industry. Since rework, debugging, and patching constitute 3/4 of the cost of US software (1/2 at the producer: 1/4 for the software, 1/4 for debugging. + 1/2 at customer; 1/4 for patches, 1/4 for repeated installation and work-arounds).
Any who may recall the rework rates on US mad cars of the early 70s and the final finishing and assembly work done by dealers and even customers, will not find the phenomenon as anything new. The traditional US approach in high growth areas was, and has remained, the capture of market in cowboy fashion - as a cowboy catches the stray cow, so does the US software marketer snag the contract with the undeliverable promise of a needed feature, and holding the "we are the standard" lasso of the implied threat of incompatibility with client systems. Upon delivery of the everything for everyone bloatware package, bugs shut down the customer's systems on a routine (sometimes daily) basis and patchworking becomes the name of the game. "Some assembly required" should appear on the software package.

In the mean time, an American quality expert (Deming in the previous iteration) is completely ignored in his native industry (Deming formerly from GM), and finds solace in advising Indian and Brazillian software makers that have a labor cost advantage and now have lowered their rewrite rate (cost of quality) from the American standard of 50-85% to 5-15% (Toyota price, low ownership costs, and quality rather than size and features won them the market). The quality advantage and cost advantage will win the market for these new software companies.

THC
Thank you for the kind words.
I do not know the size of the Kuwaiti gold position with any degree of accuracy, however, my estimates are that they are owners of about 2000 tons. Could easily be as high as 3000 tons. Likelyhood of significantly larger position is very low.

Chris Powell (11/28/99; 0:30:34MDT - Msg ID:19785)
Timeless predictions are useless
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/293.html?
Comments on Steve Kaplan, Cambior,
and gold's uses.

Goldsun (11/28/99; 0:03:56MDT - Msg ID:19784)
Living Color
Having been a contrarian since at least the time of my birth, my reaction to the better red than dead types was to wonder why the socialist states, if they were so noble and humanitarian and all, didn't disarm and save the world from nuclear war. Better decadent capitalist running dog than dead may not have the poetic punch of better red than dead, but it was at least as logical.
Goldsun

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