All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Zhisheng (03/27/03; 23:55:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 100461)
Sector
Lady Waverider's comments are right on the money.
mikal (03/27/03; 23:40:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 100460)
Oil, Asian markets, currencies
http://www.reuters.com
Oil Prices Rise; Asian Shares Dip
March 28 -By Richard Baum
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Excerpts: "Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest levels since the start of the Iraq war on fears an extended conflict would exacerbate fuel shortages, while Asian shares dipped as a deadly virus hit airline stocks.
The dollar firmed against the yen on speculation Japan's central bank was intervening to weaken its currency. But its advance was capped by worries an extended war would undermine the global economy's consumer and business confidence. "The market is becoming convinced that the war will be a long one as it seems like things are reaching a deadlock," said Mitsuru Sahara, vice president of currency dealing at UFJ Bank. "There's a strong possibility that the war will go on until May or even longer.".....
"Market players are eyeing the supply-demand balance. Nigeria's snags appear to be pretty serious amid speculation for a longer war," said Hiromune Fujisawa, a trader at Nihon Unicom Corp in Tokyo. U.S. light crude for May delivery was up 39 cents at $30.76 a barrel after rising as high as $30.84.....
The dollar rose against the yen amid growing speculation Japan wants to make sure the dollar is above 120 yen when companies close their books at the end of Japan's fiscal year on March 31. The dollar was quoted around 120.26 yen against 120.00 in late New York trade. The euro weakened to $1.0687 versus New York's closing level of $1.0695."
21mabry (03/27/03; 23:13:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100459)
Ferdinand Lipps
Aristotle, James Puplavla has an audio interview with Mr. Lipps on his site.Its recent go to 2003 expert section of his site.
Waverider (03/27/03; 23:08:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 100458)
Sector
Rumors and disinformation
Interestingly enough, I listened to a discussion this morning on CBC about the use of media disinformation related to the Pentagon, the war, and the economy. I don't know how much was fact vs conjecture but it certainly was chilling. I find I'm increasingly aware of the blatant and more subtle media manipulations/disinformation and I'm gravitating even more to the ME websites to try to get a balanced perspective of current events. Of course this is the best place to get factual economic and Gold information. It never ceases to amaze me though how influenced the markets are by the media - disinformation, rumor, or otherwise.
One more comment, if I may. I observed during the open forum that a lot of guano was unjustly "batted" in your direction. Your responses however, were consistently becoming of a noble knight and a true gentleman. Thanks for all that you do here. Cheers,
Waverider
mikal (03/27/03; 23:00:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 100457)
New costs that hit the bottom line
http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/iraq/2003-03-27-homeland_x.htm
Posted 3/27/2003 11:31 PM
Companies must add rising security costs to bottom line
By Michelle Kessler, USA TODAY -Excerpts: "SAN FRANCISCO-
"It's the world we live in now," says director Mitch Ardantz. "We're all going to grow accustomed to it."
Companies, like government agencies, have new homeland security costs. They run the gamut, from one-time costs for new security systems to shipping delays to lost time for workers stuck in security lines. Either way, "they really do add up," says Steve Drake, owner of a small management firm that, like Bonipak, has new expenses. The costs, some of which will be borne by consumers, could hamper an economic recovery, says Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo. They're not likely to subside with the war but instead will become a bigger and permanent cost of American business.....
Before the Sept. 11 attacks, many U.S. companies didn't have security budgets, McCreary says. Software to protect computers and networks from hackers and lost data came out of general tech funds.....
Other U.S. companies are also being hit with:
Shipping delays. Sunnyvale, Calif.-based RAE Systems, which makes radiation and other detectors, used to stock a two-week inventory. Because of increased paperwork, shipments from Chinese factories have been delayed. To counter, RAE keeps a month's worth of inventory. "It's expensive," director Bob Durstenfeld says.
Likewise, Motherboard Express near Chicago says shipping costs for computer parts have risen 15% to 20% in the past year. "We're absorbing the costs ... in hopes that things will settle down," President Thomas Crowley says.....
Even tiny paperwork errors can create delays, critics say.....
Equipment is getting hung up in airports, too. High-tech video gear owned by Sound/Video Impressions, a video production company in Des Plaines, Ill., is often flagged for lengthy inspections when camera crews travel.....
Despite the cost and hassle, many business owners are resigned. "I'm happy to pay the price," Heidelberger says.
But economist Sohn warns the costs are likely to be a drag on the economy for years. In addition to the one-time expenses and lost opportunities, they are bound to hamper productivity.
And they are likely to rise. In a recent survey, 63% of security officers polled by CSO Magazine said they didn't think the government could protect the country's infrastructure and citizens if terrorists attacked. It estimated that 80% of the infrastructure is privately owned.
"We're really thinking of all the things that could happen," says Cardenas of Mini Upholstery and Design."
21mabry (03/27/03; 22:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100456)
Canada
I live near the Canadian border and when choosing between purchasing silver eagles or the canadian 1oz silver piece.I have always liked the canadian piece. My thoughts on this was its one ounce of silver but its also worth 5 dollar face value canadian an added insurance value.The value are goverment puts on are gold and silver coinage is not realistic,maybe this is not a big deal but in a deflationary enviroment a 100 face value on the gold eagle would be much better than 50 dollar face value.Now I am just thinking outloud I am thinking about serious deflation.
21mabry (03/27/03; 22:21:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 100455)
operative
Operative thnx, excellent game.
Aristotle (03/27/03; 22:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 100454)
Socrates964 -- your message 100414
You said:
= = = =
"A key point that Ferdinand Lips makes in his book is that the BW agreement hogtied all currencies to the dollar and prevented them from adjusting against each other to eliminate Balance of Payments deficits."
= = = =
I'll confess that I own Lips's book but haven't read it yet. It's somewhere several down from the top of the prioritized pile.
I'm a bit concerned about Ferdi's presentation on this. Am I to understand that he is faulting the design (i.e., specifically the fixed exchage rates) of Bretton Woods for allowing chronic balance-of-payments (trade) misalignments among countries?
Bear in mind, Bretton Woods was by design a type of Gold standard, and it wasn't supposed to allow for the free floating of currencies to bring about trade adjustments. Is Ferdi therefore suggesting international fixed Gold rates are good, or bad? (As designed, the adjustments to trade balances were in theory to come about through international monetary flows, not exchange rate changes. That is, as money and dollar/Gold reserves left a country with an import bias, the *supposed* contraction is money supply as a result was to deflate the domestic price levels, thus giving a corrective boost to exports. Yeah... just try to sell that to a politician! Oh well, that was the theory!)
So, does Ferdi come out against this sort of "Gold standard," is he faulting Bretton Woods, or what? Frankly, I'm roundly encouraged if he's effectively pushing for a float with no Gold-currency tie.
If an aircraft carrier can float, then Gold should (must) be able to float, too. ((Hey, that's pretty darned good! Somebody should be writing this stuff down!))
Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
21mabry (03/27/03; 22:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100453)
cnbc europe
If anyone is awake around 2am eastern time,cnbc europe has a pretty decent show.They talk currency they talk gold,they have traders on to look at charts.To me it does not seem anything at all like cnbc that is on in the day. The last couple times I watched it I heard some of the same things discussed on this board.Someone asked earlier how to learn more about gold. My advice read books,follow this forum,the site sells the abc's of gold investing buy it.I would also say ask questions everybody has to learn things no human is born with this knowlege. dont care what people think and dont be embarresed that you don't know something. An inquring mind is an intelligent mind.People used to always laugh at me and call me a question box,well this question box has learned things those people can't even concieve of.
mikal (03/27/03; 22:03:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 100452)
DMR- Daily Market Report
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
@Tacitus- Daily Market Report by Black Blade
Includes relevant financial and geopolitical news, scoops, quotes, analysis, and even a summary.
This page also provides an updated live news feed.
Operative (03/27/03; 21:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 100451)
Play The Iraq War Game
http://idleworm.wolffelaar.nl/nws/2002/11/swf/iraq2.swf
Heres a little something for the armchair generals out there. Promised to bring a few smiles, and probably change your conception of the war if all you see is the TV News version. Vietnam II, you are cleared for takeoff indeed.
mikal (03/27/03; 21:34:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 100450)
@Tacitus
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
This link above, directs you to the only book you'll ever need on gold. If you were to read just one book, but it's a start. Also go to the link at the top of this page: "First Time Buyers". And "Free Information Packet." Michael Kosares is a legend and his materials cover all the bases, including documentation, current anecdotes, expert quotes and references you can use to follow up with further study if you so desire. Or just follow Black Blade's advice: get out of debt, get gold insurance, etc. and enjoy it all. That's enough to give us a lifetime of successful ventures.
Black Blade (03/27/03; 21:08:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100449)
The housing economy
http://www2.ocregister.com/ocrweb/ocr/article.do?id=31935§ion=BUSINESS&subsection=MONEY_SMARTS&year=2003&month=3&day=27
Home equity debt nearly doubles, prompting fear that borrowers could end up losing homes.
Snippit:
Americans are borrowing against their homes at unprecedented levels, leading some bankruptcy lawyers and consumer advocates to warn that many people could wind up losing their homes. Homeowners raised $130 billion last year through home equity loans and lines of credit, nearly double the total a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve. This boom in borrowing comes at a time when housing prices nationwide are still strong, as they are in Southern California. As long as their home values rise, borrowers who are having trouble making their payments can take out more loans or can sell their homes for more than they owe. Indeed, people have not fallen behind on their home equity loans nationwide in troubling numbers. But in parts of the Midwest and the Southeast where home prices have softened, delinquencies on home equity debt have started to rise, and bankruptcy lawyers are reporting that a growing number of their clients are losing their homes to the banks. "I'm representing a large number of newly homeless people," said Barbara May, a bankruptcy lawyer in St. Paul, Minn. Many of these people have taken on home equity loans in addition to their existing mortgages. "We are just buried in foreclosures," she said. Bankruptcy lawyers warn that the problem could spread to other parts of the country if home prices soften or if the economy does not improve.
Black Blade: Consumers are tapped out and some are willing to put their homes at risk. I just don't get it. People need to learn to live within their means and prepare for bad times. "Grasshopperism" is rampant and in this economy it is downright stupid. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months’ expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.
mikal (03/27/03; 21:06:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 100448)
Oil slithers and sloshes uphill
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energies/2003-03-27-oil_x.htm
Posted 3/27/2003 10:38 PM
Oil prices creeping up again
By Barbara Hagenbaugh and James R. Healey, USA TODAY -Excerpts:
"Oil prices are rising again as concerns grow that the Iraq war will be longer than expected and that unrest in OPEC member Nigeria will lead to supply problems. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery rose $1.74 to $30.37 a barrel Thursday, a 6.1% increase. It was the second consecutive day of gains and the first time prices were above $30 since the war started.....
When consumers and businesses have to spend more on energy, they have less to spend in other parts of the economy or to hire new workers.
Oil output in Iraq, which normally pumps about 2 million barrels per day, has been halted. Key oil fields secured by British forces earlier this week will take three months to repair, United Kingdom Air Marshal Brian Burridge said Thursday. British forces found the 500 oil wells in disrepair and booby trapped with detonation devices.....
Markets have been shaky for months as unrest in Venezuela took much of that country's oil off the market. While production there seems to have come almost completely back, oil watchers are wondering if the South American nation can maintain output levels with the fewer workers it now has.
American Petroleum Institute chief economist John Felmy called the situation a "perfect storm" for prices.
Contributing: Donna Leinwand in Doha, Qatar, and wire reports"
Tacitus (03/27/03; 21:00:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100447)
Other Forums
Dear Blackbart or anybody else for that matter,
This is the first forum I have come across. I am rather new at the internet. You mentioned other forums you frequent. I would be interested in knowing how to find a few of those sites. Thanks.
Also, I would be interested in buying gold again, if I could figure out some way to foresee when the price is going to go up or down. Any books out there on things to watch to help one determine when gold will go up or down, or is that just a pipedream.
salve,
Tacitus
Black Blade (03/27/03; 20:57:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 100446)
Slogging toward recession?
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/markets/wareconomy/index.htm
Worries that the war could last months, not weeks, lead to double-dip fears.
Snippit:
Investors remain unprepared for anything but a short war, said Morgan Stanley economist Bill Sullivan, and it is doubtful that they have even begun to factor in the possibility that a longer war could mean not just another deferral of sustained economic growth, but outright contraction.
"If conflict extends for several months, that is a completely different dynamic than investors are assuming," said Morgan Stanley economist Bill Sullivan. "One could not rule out global equity markets hitting new lows."
Black Blade: I hate to break the news to these people, but we are still mired in a deepening recession. We never fully emerged from it. I don't understand why Wall Street pinheads and financial media carnival barkers rely solely on GDP as an indicator. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of recessions, we are still in a recession that began in March 2000. A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity (March 2000) and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, the NBER emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The traditional role of the NBER is to maintain a monthly chronology, so the NBER refers almost exclusively to monthly indicators. The committee gives relatively little weight to real GDP because it is only measured quarterly and it is subject to continuing, large revisions.
mikal (03/27/03; 20:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 100445)
Is colored currency output restrained?
I can't see why it HAS to be.
That is, if the U.S. needs to release all the new notes together, and sooner. With a little "yellow" hue.
In a crisis, the defense industry can ramp up production. Why can't the Bureau of Engraving and Printing even print currency on the sly, if it's all bought and paid for?
mikal (03/27/03; 20:09:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 100444)
Re: Currency revaluation and gold
For those of you dissappointed by Jim Sinclair's repeated $529+ or -$50 plateau forecasts beginning in mid-2004 after an expected U.S. gold cover clause- he is much more bullish now. If you have visited his website, recent comments are in line with FOA and this forum, among others. Seems he expects "big float" to come home and gold to be more valued.
Recent articles posted here on the economy, Iraq war, the dollar and it's proxies corroborate a bullish picture for the yellow. Instead of seeing gold isolated, it will be freed or at least revalued similar to the last bull, IMO.
That gold bull market began in 1970 with POG=$34.75, after being repriced by Roosevelt's 1934 edict to $35.00.
But in Feb. 1980, POG=$875.00, a 25X change in 10 years.
Now that the yellow has been rangebound once again for many years, it's next bull market may outperform the last for various reasons. At the least, the new bull can be expected to reflect the faster, impatient pace of life and trading of today. More impulsive, perhaps more frenzied action. Faster information flows and feedback.
And U.S. investor sentiment towards gold has a huge amount of catching up to do. To reach previous levels of participation. And to approximate foreign behavior where citizens act preemptively and/or peremptorily.
mikal (03/27/03; 19:36:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 100443)
Re: New currency
The new colorized currency will be in public circulation no earlier than this fall. The $20 bills only. Afterwards, released in stages will be 10's, 20's 50's & 100's but no 1's or 2's(Yes we have two's, last issued in 1995 and 1976). The Treasury department was to have had a photo-op unveiling at a ceremony today, but was postpoed indefinately two weeks ago, due to "geopolitical considerations".
sector (03/27/03; 19:16:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100442)
@Aristotle [Richard Perle News Flash] and A Very Few More Words on the "New" Bills
Currency in Circulation is important in...
...the inflation equation and the Fed strives to keep it as low as possible in the US proper and has exported over half of our dollars $600 Billion.
By changing to a new currency design the Fed gains by an imperfect redemption process. Their debt burden is reduced by the amount of non-redeemed currency which may be as high as 50% or $300 Billion dollars.
That number comes off the top of the Treasury's circulation currency number and help in a gold cover clause era. They want a low gold price and a low circulating currency number.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
BTW Richard Perle Resigned referring to conflicts of interest, something I rode a hobby horse hereabouts about on March 25th.
Sundeck (03/27/03; 18:54:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 100441)
Oil Exploration And National Development
http://allafrica.com/stories/200303270473.html
...and this on oil exploration from Ghana, where they really know about freedom of the press.
Snips:
"Ghanaian Chronicle (Accra)
OPINION
March 27, 2003
Posted to the web March 27, 2003
E. K. Agbona, Tema
....WITH THE current raging global petroleum crisis, may I suggest to the NPP government with the able leadership of President J.A. Kufuor, to now come out boldly and hold the bull by the horn and tackle the oil exploration and drilling without further delay, to at least procure our domestic use.
Please, also make a legislation punishable by law, that henceforth any filling station caught in the act of refusing to sell (in anticipation of increases) should be closed down indefinitely and charged with treasonable felony, sabotage and an enemy of the state.
.....
Please remember that oil is the backbone of politics, an economy, and the power of any nation of the world. It also is the backbone of international politics and the "Black gold".
..."
Sundeck: Has Black Blade changed his name and moved to Ghana? Sounds a bit like USAGold open forum. ;-)
Sundeck (03/27/03; 18:37:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100440)
Bleak recovery prospect seen supporting gold
http://thehindubusinessline.com/stories/2003032800581200.htm
Snip:
"...
"For 2003, we believe that strong economic growth is difficult to see regardless of war, while the trend in inflation is less clear; but we suspect it will remain very low for much of 2003 and into 2004,'' Mr Naqvi remarked, adding "the combination supports our view of gold holding above $330/oz for much of 2003, despite some short-term weakness''.
Economists across the world are not optimistic about a significant recovery any time soon from the current global economic slowdown. Indeed, after Gulf War 1991, the US had a dream run of economic growth for many years in succession, the effect of which was felt around the world. It is of course another question whether war triggered growth.
But this time, post-Gulf War II, the prospect of a quick economic recovery is not regarded as really bright. The global economy is more fragile now than a decade ago. Dotcom bust and accounting scandals have shaken investor confidence in the equity market. Japan is just a shadow of its former self, while Europe continues to fight its own problems including high labour cost.
Continuing economic slowdown and limited recovery prospect will lend support to the gold market.
"
Sundeck:
"Prospect of a quick economic recovery is not regarded as really bright" is certainly measured overstatement...akin to "fedspeak". Imagine what would happen if all the large financial players came right out with what they really think: "Things are really sh*&*#*ouse. Get the hell out while you can!" But that is like the real estate agent saying housing prices are going to crash, or the dentist telling you this is REALLY going to hurt your head as well as your hip pocket.
I guess there are several reasons why people try to put a positive spin on gloomy circumstances:
1. A genuine desire to encourage people - keep up morale, as it were - for the good of the people and the social system.
2. Most people are optimistic and optimism breeds optimism.
3. "Reasonable" self interest, in so far as "I will benefit more if I can keep people on side".
4. Outright, selfish lying to hide the true circumstances and deliberately decieve the populace.
:-)
Golden Bear (03/27/03; 18:28:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 100439)
Future of the Dollar remains foggy...
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313197260&p=1012571727143
"...According to Ashraf Laidi, chief currency strategist at MG Financial in New York, the greenback's fortunes are hostage to the four Cs.
He defines these as:
casualties - the more allied deaths, the more psychological support for the war will wobble;
course - "any signs that the war will last into early spring and beyond, logistical and economic concerns will act against the dynamics of war," explains Mr Laidi;
conflict - the risks of protracted conflict in the region, jeopardising oil supplies; and
counteraction - the threat of retaliation against the US..."
GB: Can the US administration juggle all these succesfully?
Sundeck (03/27/03; 18:01:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 100438)
Bundesbank profit shrinks
http://www.faz.com/IN/INtemplates/eFAZ/docmain.asp?rub=%7BB1311FCE-FBFB-11D2-B228-00105A9CAF88%7D&doc=%7B26F5AC12-2878-4FE0-922C-A3F1E90730F5%7D
Snip:
"...Gold and currency reserves and securities netted EUR2.1 billion in profit in 2002, after totaling EUR5.9 billion a year earlier...."
Sundeck:
Profit from gold reserves - Sales? Leasing?
Sundeck (03/27/03; 17:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 100437)
Watch the Dollar - Bush Needs a Lesson in Currency and History
http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=6299cd784aef2cef7927a3c9edd6fd1e
Snip:
"
Commentary, Franz Schurmann,
Pacific News Service, Mar 27, 2003
A long war in Iraq could have disastrous effects on the global economy, writes PNS Editor Franz Schurmann. President Bush could learn from former President Richard Nixon's actions when faced with war and economic trouble.
American media are fixated on Iraq war news, but other parts of the world are worried about our common global economy. The Italian magazine L'Espresso quoted economist Chris Varvares as predicting, "if the war lasts too long, we economists will have worries bigger than just national GDPs."
Global economists agree that if the Iraq war goes on for weeks, the price of oil and gold will spike and employment and the dollar's value will slide. Hardest hit will be the most advanced industrial countries, specifically the United States, Europe and Japan. Now, after a brief downward detour, oil prices are again rising.
.......
In January 1971, the United States launched an invasion into Laos from South Vietnam to cut the "Ho Chi Minh Trail" that was the lifeline of the Communist fighters in the South. Helicopters were a key to the plan. To Washington's dismay, the Russians supplied the stubborn North Vietnamese with thousands of shoulder-fired Strella rockets that halted the invasion in its tracks.
President Nixon thought that a successful outcome would have empowered him to tackle the Eurodollar crisis. Instead, he faced a lost war and a financial crisis. On July 15, 1971, Nixon announced he was going to visit America's archenemy at the time, Mao Zedong. That paved the way for ending the Vietnam War.
A month later, Nixon announced a "New Economic Policy" that broke the ironclad link between the dollar and gold, an act that created the modern global economy and freed up capital for the stunted American business sector. In 1972, Nixon won the presidential elections overwhelmingly.
Even if Gen. Tommy Franks wins the Battle of Baghdad, other war clouds are gathering from Kurdistan, Iran, sundry angered Arab states and maybe even from Russia, the second largest arms purveyor in the world. President Bush should take a look at the history of 1971, in which another president extricated the United States from a military and economic crisis, and won re-election as well.
Schurmann (fschurmann@pacificnews.org) is emeritus professor of history and sociology at U.C. Berkeley and author of numerous books, including "The Foreign Politics of Richard Nixon" (Institute of International Studies, 1987).
"
Sundeck:
Some interesting parallels between the end of the Vietnam period and the present.
Guns and butter problems then as now, "Eurodollar crisis" problems then as now, gold exodus problems then as now, Russia frustrating US military tactics/strategies then as now... gold "suppressed" then as now - although by different means??
The markets in the US more or less went level for ten years afterwards - even though the economy grew steadily. Gold rose steadily to its 1980 peak.
goldquest (03/27/03; 16:57:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 100436)
The Color of the New Money
makes no difference, as long as it flushes like the present fiat.
21mabry (03/27/03; 16:18:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 100435)
(No Subject)
When the goldsmiths notes begin to circulate as a medium of exchange,is that the beginning of the end of the gold standard.
21mabry (03/27/03; 15:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 100434)
Bretton Wood
From what I have read the big money in trading has been in the currency market.Men like Soros have made fortunes on currency speculation and in the process have ruined countless lives. Most of these people were on the lower rungs of society, when there currency is devalued the neccesities of life become even more dear to them.Asia in the late 1990s was hit by this financial sunami. George Soros plays the philanthropus now, but his actions in the past show his true agenda. I dont think a currency with a precious metal backing could be manipulated and held hostage by these wizards of fiat. I read vandals at the gate,its a very good book on the money markets.It states in the book there is actually no bretton woods i guess its just a hotel with its own zip code.
sector (03/27/03; 15:18:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 100433)
Maybe a misfire
Other sites not printing through
eom
sector (03/27/03; 15:14:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100432)
@mikal It didn't take long...
...the smoke of a $10 bid ask says a new gold policy
I figured.
The Fed could not keep selling the metal at the rate it was since the Feb 5th margin trick. Actually the really heavy selling started around March 5th.
Next stop $425?
sector (03/27/03; 15:11:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 100431)
@Waverider Rumor mills
In 1988 on a Taiwan business trip...
..I read the Asian Wall Street Journal over a pretty good scrambled egg and sugared soymilk kind of waffle. It said "American President Assasinated". The markets roiled for about ten minutes and I'm sure some crafty traders pounced.
It's a sign of a weak and fragile market.
BTW I don't like coincidenceswith the $20 and the WGCs Friday release. We will find soon enough that there are related.
mikal (03/27/03; 15:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 100430)
INO gold spread over $10
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO
Why is there a $10.92 spread between INO's bid and ask quotes here? Click on the chart. Anyone?
BlackBart (03/27/03; 15:03:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 100429)
conduct of the forum
As a lurker and a 45 year student and practicioner of GeoPolitics, I must say that, as you all know so well, there can be no discussion of nor understanding of gold and other precious metals without in-depth study of, understanding of, and, to some degree, immersion in world geopolitcs. I have come to value this forum along with the very best of my other favorites for the apparent huge base of experience and research represented by the regulars and some of the passers-by. And I value the links provided by contributors, though some of the links are much more fiesty or confrontational than this intends to be. As can be seen with so many other sites, though, the real usefullness decays rapidly as finger pointing and name calling become more frequent. Who can be passive at this most critcal juncture in US and human history? Not I. But there's a time and place for that, and truth and constructive thought and action suffer when the yelling starts. I have a heavy bag in my basement from which more of the stuffing has been knocked loose recently, but I very much appreciate the admin of this site in the effort to keep discussion to metals and the factors influencing price, supply, trade, etc. Having said that, I hope admin will allow passage of info on obscure but usefull sites, as long as it is done without proseletizing.
Black Bart
Lemming (03/27/03; 15:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 100428)
(No Subject)
Arabs Drop MOAB on Dollar !!!
CNBS stated today that the reason for gold going down is that large quantities of bullion are being transported from western storage institutions to the mideast. Sounds bearish to me?
Although this statement was made in at least two segments on gold today, I have been unable to locate any reference in print.
However, this does play into a widely suspected scenario in which OPEC drops their biggest weapon & cuts off oil shipments to the west. The resulting 2 kiloton explosion would wipe out the dollar & rocket the price of gold out of sight.
The introduction of the new gold dinar & gold exchange in Quatar may prove to have been timely.
Since the arabs are widely suspected to hold more bullion gold than anyone on the planet, a collapse in the dollar & concomitant rise in gold value could prove quite beneficial to them.
Perhaps the recent disappearance of Spanish gold made them a bit nervous?
Good Luck on your Quest!
___________________________________________________________
sector (03/27/03; 14:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 100427)
The WGC announnces their long-awaited gold "product"
It is not an accident...
...that a new pink $20 bill is planned for simultaneous release.
The $220,000 catch 22 should come as no surprise and I'd wager that anyone desiring to redeem their gold "shares" will get the COMEX-style, "You must be some kind of money-laundering terrorist" runaround.
So this is nothing more than a trick to up the gold trading liquidity, aide the criminals at JP Morgan so they can hammer the price of gold even more. The good news is that the Fed and it's low-life hit men at the WGC find themselves in a position where they actually NEED more liquidity. Ahhhh! the wonders of a price-controlled market...there's always a precipitous fall in liquidity. What fool would buy into this pitiful set-up?
So let's chalk up the WGCs new leadership as a zero.
The proof is the absence of the traditional vault manger's language "Allocated" and "Unallocated". As was said here a day or so ago the devil is in the details.
TownCrier (03/27/03; 14:44:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100426)
WGC's O'Connell offers the following in daily commentary this a.m.
http://www.gold.org/
"Gold continues to trade in its by now familiar pattern. Physical investment from the "grass roots" is continuing to support the market, while the professionals are reluctant to commit themselves in either direction. ... After reaching a high bid in Asian hours of $331.50/ounce, the market dipped marginally on the Asian / European handover period, but is edging gradually higher in Europe this morning, with physical support again in evidence." [And again the paper trade in NY Comex was shabby -- Randy's note.]
"While discussing the Bundesbank 2002 financial results yesterday, Bundesbank president Ernst Welteke commented on the prospects for the renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which expires on September 2004. He took the view that it is currently "open" as to whether the agreement will be renewed. The general expectation within the market is that it will be, if in some modified form. Expanding further on his previous comments about the Bundesbank possibly selling some gold in future in order to invest the proceeds in interest-bearing assets, he said that if the Bundesbank had to transfer any profits from such sales to the government, as is currently the case, then the bank would be unlikely to back the idea of sales. To be allowed to invest in other assets would require a change in the law."
Waverider (03/27/03; 14:33:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 100425)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Snip:
"Today there was a barrage of rumors as would be expected on options expiry. The rumors helped to push gold lower and the dollar higher. The rumors ranged from unknown gold producers’ selling forward, which is of course ridiculous due to low interest rates, to Saddam Hussein accepting exile in another Arab country. Notice how these rumors occur prior to the end of trading before the gold pits close before they are debunked. Another rumor that does make sense is that of Arab and Asian buyers moving out of U.S. and European investments and into physical gold and then either storing the gold in Switzerland or transferring the metal to their homelands."
MK (03/27/03; 14:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 100424)
Gandalf
This pink currency . . . Is it akin to the proverbial pink slip? Are the Hobbits and the rest of us being fired from the U.S. economy? And another question: Will real men use pink money? Personally, I think we should have blue for the knights and pink for the ladies. I don't see any reasons to break tradition at this late date.
TownCrier (03/27/03; 14:25:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 100423)
Is this new scheme "as good as gold"? You decide...
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B248256CF600341186?OpenDocument
HEADLINE: Buying and selling bullion made easier on ASX
PERTH -- An Australian company and the World Gold Council have launched what is believed to be the world's first facility that allows investors to buy physical gold through a listed security.
Gold Bullion Securities, which is set to list on the Australian Stock Exchange today (Friday), is designed to provide investors with the opportunity to own a direct interest in bullion, which will be insured and held in bank vaults in London on their behalf by custodian bank, HSBC Bank USA.
Both retail and institutional investors can now elect to trade in gold bullion as if they were trading in equities by buying and selling "GOLD" shares on the ASX. Under the structure of the new product – a joint initiative of Melbourne-based and Investor Resources-owned Gold Bullion Ltd and the WGC – those shares will also enjoy the liquidity backing of the London bullion market, which boasts a reported A$9 billion in daily transactions.
...according to the WGC's chief executive, Jim Burton. "Investors have encountered barriers to entry in the form of difficulties with purchase, storage and insurance," he explained. "The securitisation of gold … is a means of addressing these issues."
...One GOLD share will be worth the equivalent of one-tenth of an ounce of gold...
[Wait for it...]
There is no minimum trading volume requirement and, aside from brokerage fees, a management fee of 0.02 percent a month covers all corporate, storage and insurance charges associated with holding the gold bullion, which will be held in trust for each GOLD holder as identifiable bars segregated in the vaults.
[...here it comes...]
GOLD shareholders will actually own gold rather than just a right, subject to third-party risk, to receive gold in the future.
[...brace yourself...]
But before getting the urge to redeem your GBS securities by taking delivery of your allocated gold, only London bars weighing about 400oz, as prescribed by the London Bullion Market Association, will be issued. [Ooofph! There it is!!]
So an outlay of roughly A$220,000 or thereabouts should do the trick. Otherwise, keep the GOLD (shares) or settle for the cash.
Gold Bullion Ltd chairman, Graham Tuckwell, described this new vehicle for holding gold as effectively a securitisation of the London gold bullion market. "This means that the price should closely track that of spot gold, with the securities being highly liquid because of the unique creation and redemption feature," he said.
--------(see url for full article)-----
I can see it now... after a few years go by and everyone is comfortable with their securitized gold, the fund will look at it's swollen vault and make the following proposal to it's unwitting investors, "Hey, how would you like it if we paid you interest on your gold holdings?" And so the wheel turns 'round.
Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for your well-earned "share" of the real thing. Delivery to your door.
R.
TownCrier (03/27/03; 13:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 100422)
In case you missed this important article yesterday...
http://www.msnbc.com/news/891133.asp?0si=-
HEADLINE: Will the war crush the U.S. dollar?
(excerpts) -- The odds are still small that the war will trigger a currency crisis. If it does, you'll see it in a fast-falling dollar; and given our current sour relations with much of the G-7, we might not be able to do much about it....
The 15 percent fall in the dollar has made a lot of people in a lot of places a little poorer. ...The worst is probably yet to come, because the dollar's decline reflects not only all the uncertainties about the war's impact on U.S. growth, but also increasing concerns about a structural imbalance in the American and global economies.
-------(see url for full text of this excellent article)-----
R.
Gandalf the White (03/27/03; 12:59:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 100421)
FINNALY ! -- We are now back to the GOLDEN mode !!! <;-)
MK (03/26/03; 18:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100385)
Open Forum Closed
Somewhere in the Castle:
Gandalf. Gandalf. Wake up you sleepy old wizard. I have a question. Have you've been casting spells of late. Have you found a way to make the hour longer? This has been the longest three days in this forum's history. A long, deep, dark, shivering night. . . . .What's that you say, my wizardrous friend? You point out that it's soon to be midnight somewhere on this planet? That it is. You're a genius -- a truly magical and gifted advisor. So we shall do it. Summon the scribes. Let's get it down on paper. The Open Forum is now Closed. What's that? Please don't mutter like that. "It's about time. . . ." you say. Hah!! Why didn't you bring up this business about it being midnight somewhere sooner. . . . . .You say you tried to bring this up yesterday. I don't recall . . . . . . Voices fade. . . . . .The castle quiets. . . .
===
YES, INDEED SIR MK! I admit that I have been sleeping a lot lately because of LONG HOURS of assisting the Town Crier in the extra level of effort required to get the Forum back to the GOLDEN MODE ! I have authorized Townie to use the MAGIC ZAPPER as much a necessary to maintain the decorum as I have placed an extra energy SPELL upon the ZAPPER so that it will stay at FULL POWER for the rest of this week !
BTW, SIR MK, the Hobbits have gathered together their recent earnings and will be calling you shortly to trade you some of the GREEN PAPER for the PHYSICAL YELLOW coinage, before the rumored PINK PAPER arrives.
Nice of the Cabal to give everyone the PRE-April Fools Day present ! (They are the FOOLS of course.)
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (03/27/03; 12:20:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 100420)
Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?
Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?
Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.
Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:
The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.
Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"
If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.
Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --
Contact:
George Cooper Ext 102
Jonathan Kosares Ext 110
Marie Ballard Ext 106
We look forward to your inquiry.
Socrates964 (03/27/03; 11:57:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 100419)
21mabry
As a coda to my post -just to clarify things, I don't see any currency waiting in the wings to dethrone the dollar. I also think that it would be hard to back any currency with a perishable asset like oil (which would be inherently deflationary).
If anything, I think that on a long-term view, exchange rates will just slosh back and forth until we get a major change in the world order (i.e. world government) - or hopefully never.
The $ has a long way to go before it is discarded, basically because it doesn't have much to devalue against (except gold and other commodities).
Clink! (3/27/03; 11:09:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 100418)
POG - Rising Pennant, Anyone ?
The last week's price action has been an interesting sawtooth shape. Last Friday $334 bashed to $325.70. Rising over a couple of days back to $334 again to be bashed back to $327.70 on Tuesday. Climbing back to $333.2 to fall back today to $329.00 as I type. Could this mean we are heading towards a breakout about the middle of next week ?
Lothar of the Hill People (3/27/03; 08:53:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100417)
Good riddance...
...to the evil Sir Rantsalot and his foul Lady Grimerview.
Let us once again gather in unity about this great table and speak of many golden things.
For I am Lothar, of the Hill People.
sector (3/27/03; 08:44:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 100416)
War, Peace, and our Economic Future
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1191
by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.
[Posted March 27, 2003]
The Austrian economists tell us that a price is more than a price. It is an objective expression of subjective judgments concerning human wants, now and in the future. It conveys information to us about how we ought to conduct ourselves: where capital should be directed, how much of what should be consumed now or later, which jobs to take and which to pass over. In short, prices provide the roadmap to the successful navigation of the material world.
How striking it is to see stock prices respond so actively to the war on Iraq, the dominant event of the day. Since the war began, prices have risen in response to the prospect that war would end soon and sunk on the prospect that the war will go on and on. What does this price information convey? Most likely, it reflects an inchoate sense that this war is doing nothing to bring us out of economic contraction and into recovery.
A Soft Patch?
That is precisely true. This war could result in a severe setback, not only prolonging the contraction but deepening it as well. To hear official voices talk, however, we have not been going through the longest recession in the postwar period. Instead, we have been through a 24-month "slow recovery." It is also called a "sagging economy with sound fundamentals." Greenspan has made references to a "soft patch" in a foundation otherwise as hard as stone.
Indeed, in the effort to avoid using the term recession, the Federal Reserve has become a business-cycle phrase mill. Thus, according to the Fed, this is a "soft economy," a "subpar" economy," a "skittish" economy, an economy "weighed down by weak expenditures," an economy of "persistent weakness," or, my favorite, an economy facing "formidable barriers to vigorous expansion." Call it what you want, but don't call it a recession. As for the D-word, depression, don't even think it!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
In order to understand the markets one must understand the Fed's use of pure propaganda, disinformation and outright misrepresentation of economic facts. Only then will the true picture of a sunken US economy emerge.
Waverider (3/27/03; 07:30:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 100415)
Dollar Declines on Concern Long Iraq War Will Weigh on Economy
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APoL.0BX0RG9sbGFy
Snip:
"The dollar fell to a nine- day low against the euro on investor concern a long U.S.-led war in Iraq will weigh on demand for the country's assets and the currency to buy them. The campaign to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein war is likely to last months and require more combat power than now available, the Washington Post reported citing unidentified defense officials. A protracted conflict may dent the dollar by crimping U.S. consumer and business confidence, investors said. ``The longer the war goes on we are more likely to be tipped into a global recession,'' said Greg Anderson, senior foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro Inc. in Chicago. International relations need ``to be cured quickly to finance our current account deficit.''
Waverider: I see the US$ Index is at 100.40 this morning, and Gold yet again takes a hit on the NY open but is up slightly.
Socrates964 (3/27/03; 07:17:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 100414)
21mabry
NP, as for brave new currencies - there have been several attempts to launch a global currency that were derailed by the US:
1944 - BW, Keynes' Bancor that was supposed to be a gold-backed currency - overruled by Harry Dexter White's plan.
(As an aside, is it not a sign of the depths to which we have sunk that a gold bug like Jim Sinclair is reviled for proposing a return to a plan dreamed up by an archenemy of free markets like Keynes)
1968 - SDR at the Rio Agreement.
I surmise that we move to some kind of global currency - although in what form remains to be seen. It could be a virtual currency like the ECU (which is just a basket of currencies) or could be a real currency with gold backing or without. The last is easily the worst of the three since it invites world government and permanent debasement of money.
A key point that Ferdinand Lips makes in his book is that the BW agreement hogtied all currencies to the dollar and prevented them from adjusting against each other to eliminate Balance of Payments deficits.
I wonder, therefore, if we could have a kind of shifting basket where the weights of each currency vary with BoP positions. E.g. the US would start by devaluing and running down its weight in the basket until it eliminates its trade deficit - then its weight would start to rise as its economy recovered. The problem here is that this could turn into a monetary equivalent of a UN Security Council where the US simply bullies the others into shifting the dollar weight in its favor. Having said this, if the $ collapses, such a system could actually grow out of an ad hoc series of manoeuvres by Central Banks that look at their trade patterns and decide that they need more yuan, less euros, etc.
The prelude to this is nevertheless knocking the greenback off its perch.
Indeed, it seems to me that running an undervalued currency for several years is about the only way out for the US, which has condemned itself to follow the course of an economy like Brazil or Mexico.
Aristotle (3/27/03; 01:04:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 100413)
21mabry -- your message 100394
I think you've mistakenly attributed someone else's thoughts to me -- it isn't possible that anything I've ever said could be interpreted as you've done in this post.
Shootin' straight from the hip.
Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Operative (3/27/03; 00:32:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 100412)
Peter Fisher, Under Secretary of Treasury Makes a Good Case For Gold
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313193971&p=1012571727088
I dont think that was his intention of his recent article, but that is how I read his words as he pleaded his case.
Operative (3/27/03; 00:24:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 100411)
Month /First Qrt End Fast Approaching
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/ECONOMY?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=BUSINESS&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
According to the Summary of the State of the economy provided in this AP News story, Wall St is going to have to really work hard for the end of the month and first qtr ramp job. Gold and Oil showing strength tonight, that will not make thier job any easier.
Wky_Woodsman (03/27/03; 00:01:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 100410)
He's Gone!
While walking in the woods awhile ago far from the castle, I came across a most foul smell! When I placed my torch in that direction, I illuminated a horseman on a sorry looking steed. The horseman was mounted backwards and screaming nonsense. His garb was moth eaten and filthy and he had an unkempt and wild look about him. He had one arm raised up and in it was a broken sword. His other arm was busily banging loudly on the drum of jingoism! I had only seen this gruesome creature once before in these parts. It was the disgraced SIR RANTSALOT! Legend has it that he suffers from a blow to the head and cannot put forth a thought out sentence or idea but spews forth what his emotions and feelings dictate to him. He rode off out of the boundaries of the kingdom just now and it is close to midnight.
He is such a nasty and awful creature who always upsets everyone. Perhaps soon the kingdom will return to the golden thoughts we all pursue here and will hear no more of SIR RANTSALOT!
Humbly searching for the truth.
Wky
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