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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/27/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (7/27/02; 23:01:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 81661)
Saudi's Sudairi Seven Gearing Up for Power Play?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/722927/posts

Summary

An odd series of visits to Saudi Arabian King Fahd in Geneva could be an indication of the initial stages of a plan to shift power away from Crown Prince Abdullah. Though still embryonic, such a plan -- even if it fails -- would reverberate throughout the Middle East.

Analysis

Saudi Arabia's Prince Salman and Prince Abdul Rahman, both full brothers of King Fahd, left Riyadh today to travel to Geneva to meet with the aged king, the official Saudi Press Agency reported.

The visits of two of Fahd's full brothers came immediately following two private visits to the king by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah II. The diplomatic and royal traffic to Geneva is highly unusual, given that King Fahd no longer runs Saudi Arabia's day-to-day affairs. It may suggest the very earliest stages of a plan by America and its closest Arab allies to encourage the Sudairi Seven, a powerful faction of senior princes, to make a play for power against de facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah.

Though still king, Fahd has been marginalized since he suffered a stroke in 1995. In his place, Crown Prince Abdullah has become de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Abdullah, however, is perceived by the United States as a less reliable ally than members of the Sudairi Seven, a powerful bloc of full brother senior princes. King Fahd, Prince Salman, Prince Abdul Rahman, Prince Turki, Defense Minister Prince Sultan, Interior Minister Prince Nayef and Prince Ahmed all are members.

Given Fahd's limited power now, the visits by Egypt's Mubarak and Jordan's Abdullah seem slightly out of place. Jordan's monarch traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in early June to meet with Crown Prince Abdullah, but Mubarak has not met with Saudi's de facto leader since February 2000. Neither King Abdullah nor Mubarak attended the Arab League Summit in Beirut in March where Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah proposed his Arab peace plan.

According to reports about the meetings, the king discussed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with both Arab leaders. But the King is hardly in good enough health to mediate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Nor has he shown any interest in doing so.

Compounding the mystery are the immediate follow-on visits by a contingent of the Sudairi Seven from Riyadh. The king's brothers may want to simply reassure themselves of the king's good health following Fahd's reported cataract surgery this week. Though any medical procedure at his advanced age -- Fahd is in his late 70s -- can be dangerous, eye surgery is hardly life threatening. Moreover, the King has already had the surgery (which was reported a success) and is scheduled to travel to Spain, Reuters reported July 25.

The combination of all of the unusual traffic may point to another, more clandestine agenda. Fahd is still the leader of the Sudairi Seven and his approval would be needed before any coherent plan could emerge for his full brothers to challenge half-brother Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah.

If, for instance, the United States has grown leery of dealing with Crown Prince Abdullah and is looking for alternate allies among the royal family, Washington could hardly approach those princes directly. Instead, it would look for emissaries -- and who better than two key Arab leaders who are also close Washington allies?

At the same time, neither Mubarak nor Jordan's King Abdullah would approach Salman or Sultan before first getting King Fahd, the head of their faction, on board. Perhaps Salman's purpose in going to Geneva is to have relayed to him the messages delivered by Mubarak and King Abdullah and King Fahd's reaction to the ideas.

There is no direct evidence that such a plan exists or that the United States is actively seeking alternate allies in Riyadh. A series of strange coincidences in the context of rapidly deteriorating relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, makes such political maneuverings and intrigue possible. While nothing is certain yet, the consequences of such a scheme could shatter what remains of the U.S.-Saudi alliance and reconfigure the entire U.S. position in the Middle East.


Black Blade: If there were to be a power play and those with close ties to the Wahhabi clerics or aligned with anti-western royals took over, then petroleum and precious metals prices would go through the roof. Of course the US would likely launch a series of attack from Prince Sultan Air Base in support of the Sudairi Seven or any pro-western faction. There simply would be no choice. The US would use military force to secure oil as it is hydrocarbon energy that determines the fate of the global economy. Oil and gas are the blood that keeps this patient (the economy) alive. After all we went to war against Iraq over oil and we would be under much more pressure if the world's largest producer were to fall into unfriendly hands.



TownCrier (7/27/02; 22:45:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 81660)
Friday's gold price -- did you look a gift horse in the mouth?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20Stories%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=worldtop&s=APUKnlhR4RG9sbGFy
This one is a must read.

HEADLINE: Dollar May Decline on U.S. Growth Doubts: Currency Outlook

New York, July 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may decline against the euro as statistics next week will probably show the U.S. economic rebound is losing steam.

``The message that continues to come through will be slowing growth'' and a struggling stock market, said David Durrant, a currency strategist at Bank Julius Baer. Foreigners will be reluctant to invest in the U.S. and ``that's bad for the dollar,'' he said.

Next week, the dollar, which reached a 2 1/2-year low of $1.0212 per euro on July 19, will probably cheapen again past the $1 level, Durrant said.

``This is just a little bit of a reprieve for the dollar before you get another leg down,'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, a currency analyst at Putnam Investments in Boston, with $313 billion in assets.

Concern that that growing shortfall [in the U.S. current account] will erode the dollar's value will also make investors who do keep funds in the U.S. more likely to hedge those holdings, effectively by selling dollars, he said.

[eventually] speculation about a [Fed] rate boost will spark selling of Treasuries and dollars, he said.

While investors such as Upadhyaya expect the possibility of a rate increase to hurt the dollar, other investors say that skimpy U.S. rates aren't helping either, because they don't give enough incentive to park money in the U.S.

-------(click url for more than these excerpts)-------

One sure way to avoid the "could-a would-a should-a" syndrome is to DO.

Centennial stands at the ready to broker your personal gold deal. Go on... be a high roller and own the wealth of kings.

R.

Blackjack (7/27/02; 22:28:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 81659)
Saudi Arabia teetering on the brink of collapse?
http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,764578,00.html
Saudi Arabia is teetering on the brink of collapse, fuelling Foreign Office fears of an extremist takeover of one of the West's key allies in the war on terror.

Anti-government demonstrations have swept the desert kingdom in the past months in protest at the pro-American stance of the de facto ruler, Prince Abdullah.

At the same time, Whitehall officials are concerned that Abdullah could face a palace coup from elements within the royal family sympathetic to al-Qaeda.

Saudi sources said the Pentagon had recently sponsored a secret conference to look at options if the royal family fell.

Demonstrations across the kingdom broke out in March, triggered by a fire in a girls' school in which 14 pupils died after the religious police stopped them escaping.

Unrest in the east of the country rapidly escalated into nationwide protests against the royal family that were brutally suppressed by the police. The Observer has obtained secret video footage of the protests smuggled out of the country last week that shows hundreds of Saudis, including women, demonstrating in support of the Palestinians and opposition to the regime.

The Foreign Office believes that the failure of Abdullah's recent Middle East peace plan could have terminally undermined his position.

The Crown Prince's main rival, Prince Sultan, the Defence Minister, has been vocal in his opposition to Abdullah's pro-Western policy. His brother Prince Naif, head of the Interior Ministry, has led a crackdown on the Saudi media in the wake of the demonstrations to stop any word of them leaking out.

Abdullah has even sent his own representative to Washington to counter the influence of the ambassador, Prince Bandar, a son of Prince Sultan.

Anti-Abdullah elements within the Saudi government are also thought to have colluded in a wave of bomb attacks on Western targets by Islamic terrorists.

The authorities have blamed the attacks on an alleged 'turf war' between Westerners involved in the bootleg alcohol trade and have jailed five Britons, a Canadian and a Belgian for the bombings. But British intelligence sources have confirmed that the attacks were carried out by Islamists linked to al-Qaeda.

Earlier this year, the accused men were handed sentences ranging from execution to long prison terms. But lawyers acting for the Britons have told The Observer that they could soon be free.

The tensions between the royal factions will intensify with the death of King Fahd. The condition of the king, in hospital in Switzerland, is 'unstable', doctors said.

British-based Saudi dissident Dr Saad al-Fagih said: 'There is now an undeclared war between the factions in the Saudi royal family.'
________
This is a British newspaper story......nothing about this matter
in the US media.



Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 21:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 81658)
OK, one more and then I'll go home...
Truly demented indeed, apologies in advance, but how seriously can you take all this foolishness that goes on?

From my previous post: "Maybe FOA is over in Deutschland, digging through Welteke's office dumpster for unshredded memos?"

Leads to --> (I'm really gonna hate myself after I click this one in) da da! --> Bad joke o' th' day (for gold advocates only):::

What do you get when you go through Welteke's dumpster?

Euro trash.


Shermag (7/27/02; 20:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 81657)
Sector, you got my curiosity two weeks ago
Hey Sector. On July 14 you posted:

"This Week Could see More Bad News for the Cabal and their US Officials
from several unexpected sources.
Can't be specific yet, but those who value the truth and wish the inappropriate market manipulation to stop have reason for hope this week.

The heat on the cabal is definitly going UP. The corruptors of free marrkets who live and work by stealth, in addition, are facing light like they never expected."

Can you be specific now? Has something slipped by us in all the turmoil of the past few weeks? Were you refering to some well known recent event? I am curious to know what specifically was on your mind when you posted this.

Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 20:26:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81656)
Henry Liu
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/DG23Ad04.html
Do NOT miss this link. Took me awhile to get through it, but I think you will be seeing the shape of things to come. (What is it, 40+% of world's population in and around China?)

It seems that whenever politics goes off in a new economic direction, it latches on to an organizing ideology to refer its everyday decisionmaking to (or justify what it already wants to do.) Looks to me like Henry Liu is trying to be that man for Asia, with a grasp of history East and West, and with some ethical regard for what happens to the common man. (We can only hope that is taken into regard as well.)

Sir sector: Thanks again, then, for bringing this one in.

Sir Cavan Man: Thanks for making it that way.

Max Rabbitz (7/27/02; 20:24:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 81655)
Bush and the Economy
I think George W. Bush has one chance for avoiding what I thought since day one was the inevitable tag of Herbert Hoover Jr. Use the power of the FBI and Justice Department to investigate, charge, and attempt to convict those responsible for the mess, or at least those most recently responsible. The FBI and IRS no longer work for the Clintons and their friends. The media will be forced to cover the investigations/trials. Senators Corzine and Daschle need to be asked questions about Wall Street. Also, Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, and Terry McAuliffe. Exactly what did this "strong dollar policy" entail and who benefited? What political money was donated by JPM and Citibank? Senator Daschle, did your wife's employment have anything to do with your dislike for accounting for stock options? Mr. Greenspan, do you know who it was that approved the leasing of America's gold reserves? Bush has got to use the resources he has, just like the slick one. It's either that or it's history.

In the meantime, I am thankfull PM prices continue to provide a good buying opportunity. I stopped putting money in my tax deferred annuity earlier this year and am instead putting everything available directly into physical PMs. The tax deferral for annuities (403b's for me) seems more like just another paper con job. The words of our Trail Guide are growing clearer.

BILLYG (7/27/02; 20:23:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 81654)
Charting Gold Stocks
After spending many days a year ago I was very bullish on gold stocks. Looking at them now I see more selling. The MACD line on the charts look like they have a long way to go on the down side. Check them out on a 4 or 5 year chart. Even the 20 day charts very few look like a bounce here. Never in my wildest dreams would I beleive gold stocks would crash 25 to 50 percent in just 5 days. I have to wonder what its telling us. Is the Bull Market in Gold over for the next 4 to 6 years again? We are just 6 1/2 points above the November 19 2001 low. Looks like we will take that out and maybe much more.

Cavan Man (7/27/02; 20:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 81653)
sector
Hope you weren't offended by my line of questioning the other day. You are one of my favorites.

Cavan Man (7/27/02; 20:16:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 81652)
Mr. Gresham
Regarding FOA; well said and, you're doubly right!

Cavan Man (7/27/02; 20:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 81651)
@USAGOLD
Mike, Your forum is better than it ever has been.

Cavan Man (7/27/02; 20:15:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 81650)
US Corporate Profits
07/27 10:16
Worsening Profit Outlook Threatens Gains: U.S. Stocks Outlook
By Robert Dieterich


New York, July 27 (Bloomberg) -- Don't count on corporate profit growth to spark further gains in U.S. stocks.

While analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expect earnings for Standard & Poor's 500 Index members to rise 14 percent in the third quarter, the estimate ``keeps getting ratcheted down,'' said Don Ross, chief investment officer at National City Investment Management Co., which oversees $28 billion in Cleveland.

``And we think it's still too high,'' he said.

Investors are watching for reports from companies including Verizon Communications Inc., the largest local phone service provider, which reports next week. Rivals BellSouth Corp. and SBC Communications Inc. this week lowered their 2002 earnings forecasts.

In a week that began with investors concerned about a possible crash the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose. Each had its biggest rally in almost 15 years on Wednesday and extended those gains. That followed the steepest two-week drop since the crash in October 1987.

``At the beginning of the week, we thought the world was coming to an end,'' said Kathy Cole Dodd, who manages value style funds at Bank One Investment Advisors, which oversees $148 billion in Columbus, Ohio. ``It's not a new bull market, it's not euphoria, but it's nice to see the market stop going down.''

Third Losing Year

Without improving profits, this week may only be a bounce in a bear market, some investors said. Benchmark indexes are down for a third year, and the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level in more than five years on Tuesday.

``The earnings really have to start coming through in the second half of the year,'' Ross said.

And the outlook is deteriorating. At the beginning of July, analyst forecasts called for an average 17 percent rise in third- quarter profits, according to First Call. On April 1, the estimate was 22 percent. Fourth-quarter profit forecasts are also slipping, to 25 percent growth today from 32 percent on April 1.

Second-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies grew an average 1 percent from a year earlier, after falling for five quarters, according to First Call. The tally uses results from the 75 percent of members that have reported and analyst forecasts for the rest.

``Clearly, companies are having trouble making money these days,'' said Jon Burnham, manager of the $140 million Burnham Fund. He recently sold the last of his shares of Siebel Systems Inc., which has also cut its second-half profit forecast.

Companies from software maker Microsoft Corp. to Caterpillar Inc., the biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, have lowered profit forecasts.

Concerns Peak

Investor unease, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, jumped Tuesday and Wednesday to levels not seen since previous market bottoms. The index topped 50 for only the sixth time in the 16 years since it was created. Prior peaks came during the market plunge following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the 1987 stock-market crash.

The index, known as the VIX, measures what traders pay for stock-index options that protect against further market declines.

``There's no question that when you have the VIX spiking up like that, you're due for a change in trend,'' said Tim Heekin, head of trading at Thomas Weisel Partners in San Francisco.

Fears were stoked by the appearance of Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. executives before Congress to answer questions about the banks' involvement in the financing that led to Enron Corp.'s collapse.

Though indexes recovered in Wednesday's big advance, shares of the two biggest U.S. banks didn't come all the way back. Citigroup slid 15 percent this week and was the biggest drag on the S&P 500. J.P. Morgan shares fell 15 percent.

For the week, the Dow rose 3.1 percent, the S&P 500 added 0.6 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 4.3 percent.

Semiconductors

The extent of the decline and the pessimistic investor sentiment leading up to Wednesday's rally were taken as a positive by some investors because they suggested that those who were inclined to sell had already done so. Still, others harbor doubts about earnings and the economy.

``Ultimately, the economy drives stock prices,'' said Joe Stocke, who helps manage $800 million at StoneRidge Investment Partners in Malvern, Pennsylvania.

Computer-related stocks sank the Nasdaq. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said it will cut its expenditures because the recovery in the chip industry is stalling.

Applied Materials Inc., the biggest maker of chip equipment, lost 15 percent, extending this year's slide to 29 percent. Teradyne Inc. fell 17 percent and Novellus Systems Inc. slid 17 percent.

The University of Michigan's sentiment survey was better than expected this week, though it still fell from last month. Investors are concerned that U.S. consumers may rein in spending as the stock market's declines cut into their wealth and the slowing of the economic recovery makes jobs less secure.

The government provides its first assessment of the pace of second quarter economic growth on Wednesday. Economists estimate that the economy grew at a 2.3 percent annual pace, down from 6.1 percent in the first quarter as the economic recovery slowed.

Also next week, investors get the latest read on consumer sentiment from the Conference Board. The research group's index is expected to fall to 101.5 in July from 106.4 in June, according to analyst forecasts.



sector (7/27/02; 20:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 81649)
@Sir. Gresham It was I that posted the Liu, Asia Times Piece
after a heads up from Maddog form G-E...
...who often delivers gems from across the pond.




Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 19:58:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 81648)
White Rose, Liu vs Roach
White Rose: Wow! Are you sure someone wasn't hustled away by the SA, as were Hans, Sophie, and Christoph, after they threw the (truth-telling) anti-Nazi leaflets from the student union balcony in Munich? Maybe FOA is over in Deutschland, digging through Welteke's office dumpster for unshredded memos?

Liu seems to have an answer for Roach's concerns about US consumer plunge throwing Asia into recession again. "SO WHAT!" Why worry about the small cyclical consequences within Dollar Hegemony, when it costs them so much overall. Now would be the time to break free, it's happening anyway, so make the best use to restructure their internal economy.

Of course, the kleptocracies within each country will fear to lose the easy tap they have into cash flows from exporting (Why pile up more devaluing Dollars?), if the benefits of change flow generally to the population at large. Well -- they'll just have to put on their thinking caps and come up with something new, won't they?

White Rose (7/27/02; 19:31:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81647)
Machine translation of message from #81633

Written of DOT gates on 27 July 2002 21:50:10:

Rear one,

it circulates a PAPER, which andenkt the possibilities of a new gs. The source is from the G8-Zirkel. The Konfident is the language, in that the PAPER it is present (which I could not rauskriegen) only causes powerfully, the paper however definitely on american quarto written, how was expressly confirmed on demand.

Starting point the usual. Confidence crisis etc.. Then a confrontation of the notes in the euro-area and the USA with approx. takes place. 1.3 bio for new covering are added the reciprocal "national" gold reserves, approx.. 13,000 tons. The USA want to hold last reserve and become the gold reserves given at IMF, so far recognizably, not included.

Roughly counted with a gold/euro-parity one proceeded and thus in the long run from a parity to gold from 10: 1 g, only to pending notes referred. Enormous and errechnungen...

In order to start the thing, are approx. in each case. 10 and 5 g (fine) heavy "starting coins" to be coined/shaped. The "goldmark" the Buba godfather obviously stood, only that at that time 1 Mark stood drauf. Now 100 became and/or. 50 drauf stands. Thus quasi an anchorage in the market via market price.

Coins only to small extent pronouncedly, as it were as signal. Remainder of the gold as covering and against notes over parity callably.

Covering is amusing-proves however only 10 % to be, which would create an enormous potential for further gold delivery. Those is to happen in the usual procedure (open market business). As is to be out-swung that, I could not solve.

Old coins are explained again as kursant, thus 20-$-Eagle again as 20 $. which thereby to imagine, white I not. Franc or markstuecke from old time to euro-parity converted.

Lower line is gold in accordance with condition of the attitude of the 10%-Deckung to be also purchased, into specie. So that there is no "cut" of the private gold owners, sufficient gold is present in the pool, in order to press the price in such a way that no sales takes place. Thus a split market develops in the first phase.

There is a passage, where the pool gold is confronted to the actually available private gold, the latter without decoration gold, from which one assumes that its market infiltration costs are too high, in order to let it melt.

The price for private gold in $ or € is obviously to be pressed by continuing physical deliveries from the pool in each case, so that it finally settles down in such a way that with the 1/10-Deckung can be durably worked. Covering is played to the end in various variants.

Mines will have, cannot Andienungszwang at pool thus no more than offerers on free gold market into action go. Individual mines long and broadly specified.

London obviously opposes vehement. Should however before the alternative be posed to step either euro/dollar or to lose the Londoner gold market.

On the other hand regular driving of gold production down, with deactivation premium and a sealing premium, stands so that these can open again, as soon as the action is final and the productivity increases turn into with the point mines in the spill more over also on the other mines, which received in addition then again capital investment grants. For South Africa compensations are intended in hard currency $ and €.

As time frameworks are 20/25 year in the discussion.

If ich's sum up correctly, in the long term De facto Facto-Paritaet of 85 would come: 1 out, if 15 % of the pool gold first one coined/shaped. Which should then finally fix the gold price in a "control LED down move" on 45 $/€/oz.. This probably, in order to suffocate inflation expectations.

The issuing banks are split opinion, there some it gold to the current rate balance (France), others (FRG) a balance post formed, which they could take immediately again from the balance. A reconciliation over the EZB is to be examined, quasi a vertical financial adjustment.

There is also conversions with the public loans in the eye calm, from which one expects that they receive as "gold covered" a clear interest anticipated payment, which would bring in response the national households in the long term to relieve and/or to a reconciliation. Circulating loans should, as soon as itself no more Zinsspread between $ - and €-area (on disappearing the Zinsspreads with public ones there expressly taken off) shows by emitter notice to be converted.

At a round parity to the Yen still one files. Japan appears probably expressly as low interest ideal, anyhow, which concerns the public loans.

Not to get to know more at present, also not whether it is only a Working PAPER of any Sub Comittees or Think tank or more.

Anyhow it seems to be a matter only of a banknoten-Deckung into gold, which quasi automatically the state reorganization is to follow. Probably the whole is so confused and complicated that Insider, which have of it wind can make themselves also no clear Reim drauf. Whether the current nearly drophatchet-like development could be brought with gold and mines with it in connection, which would not be illogical, I do not know.

Greeting!

Black Blade (7/27/02; 19:15:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 81646)
Gold plunges as U.S. dollar regains favour
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id={F1DDAA2C-481F-4755-891F-77065E026621}


Snippit:

The latest market meltdown also took down the shares of gold companies, which have been a leading indicator for the price of the metal, said Doug Pollitt, an analyst with Pollitt & Co. Inc., a boutique Toronto brokerage. "People started getting their quarterly statements and said, 'Everything's down, gold is up -- sell the gold,'" said Mr. Pollitt. "This Chinese water torture [in equities] gets to people, and if they see something that's up, they want to monetize it. They started to look at gold stocks as being less gold and more stock." The elimination of Barrick Gold Corp. and Placer Dome Inc. from the Standard & Poor's 500 index has also fuelled the decline in gold stocks, Mr. Pollitt said.

But some people who have been bullish on gold see nothing in the latest decline to make them change their minds. "The factors that propelled gold to US$330 an ounce are still in place," said Mr. Ing. Some gold producers are starting to reduce their hedging programs, reducing the amount of gold for sale in the market, he said. (Randall Oliphant, Barrick's chief executive, admitted this week the mining company's extensive hedging policy is hurting its share price.) In addition, major gold miners are producing less of it, even though demand remains strong. And even if it goes back to where it was in June, that won't be enough to encourage them to pull more gold out of the ground, said Mr. Pollitt. Finally, despite its recent strength, all signs still point to a drop in the U.S. dollar, said Mr. Ing, who predicts gold will hit US$375 by the end of the year.


Black Blade: The reasons for gold investment remain intact. The excessive expansion in credit and the extreme accumulation in government, corporate, and consumer debt will destroy and pretense of the US dollar as a perceived safe haven. Also, starting in 2004 there will be a precipitous decline in world gold production as exploration activity is severely limited and older mines are played out. Even as demand for gold remains strong, there will be little chance of brining on any significant new gold production for several years, perhaps decades.



Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 19:15:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 81645)
FOA and Mentoring
Thought while walking back from coffee through an alleyway:

How many of us men have a generation-older man to give us his wise insight on the world we both inhabit, and a perspective similar to the one that we may hold 20-25 years hence?

Not the data or opinions given, or the correctness of them in some profit motive, but the opportunity to spend time in the presence of someone with worldwide experience, seasoned and broadened by time, as I now realize I have somewhat been, and hope more to be. I felt my viewpoint expanding as I read FOA, and I know others did, too.

Not even necessarily to come to the same conclusions, but to go through a SIMILAR process. A process of coming to know onesself, and accept one's place in the world. (Yeah, I know -- just in time to be leaving it ;(...Hey -- I'm looking for the POSITIVES in aging, lately ;) )

Most older men with that wisdom will not spend the time with us. Or we do not have ways established to make contact. (OK, maybe I need to spend less time on the Internet, and take up golf? ;)

And, most older people with less experience and power are marginalized by society, and ignored, having little faith perhaps in their own wisdom to be offered. So we are deprived, largely, of those experiences.

FOA was confident and humble in the right balance, exploratory as he has probably been throughout his several careers, active still and perhaps even more in world affairs, and now, willing to reach back to others who could not possibly pay him for his efforts.

Yet the joy of Mentoring surely had to be at the core of his prodigious work here and in the early postings with Another. It is a role that goes largely unutilized, unappreciated, and unrewarded in our "modern world" today, and so we probably do not learn how to respond to it, either.

Hopefully, FOA found the "ancient" satisfaction it must give as generation learns from generation, and misses us as much as we miss him.

Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 18:53:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 81644)
Dollar Hegemony, Henry Liu, & ORO
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/DG23Ad04.html
Was the Henry Liu link from here? If so, I'm repeating it. Encouraging China to make its monetary move. US has taught them well; too well, perhaps. Machiavelli would be proud.

Wish we could have Oro here with us to add his extra dimension of insight to these moves, as he has done with Europe. I still don't know enough to refute or agree with his conclusions, but they always moved me off the comfortable middleground. By now, we all know enough of our own and others' personality traits to allow for them, and still effectively share this learning experience together.

And I still think we need an ORO archive. Time, events, and our own further educations might allow us to use such a resource as we use the Gold Trail. We recognize quality here, and so the recognition should follow.

Black Blade (7/27/02; 18:43:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 81643)
Aug. 14 certification deadline looms for CEOs
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=mktwmore&guid=%7BF81AD3F3%2D71AB%2D4C40%2DB10D%2D716F728DF384%7D
3 problem areas for disclosures

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- August 14 could be the day of reckoning for some companies, as the deadline for CEO-certified financial statements draws near. In a move aimed at bolstering investor confidence in the market, the SEC issued an order last month requiring the top executives of companies that have more than $1.2 billion in annual revenue, to personally swear by their numbers. But some people are worried that the effort will spark a wave of restatements, flooding the market with more bad news and dampening the confidence of scandal-weary investors even further.


Black Blade: "Restatement Season" on Aug. 14th. The "entertainment" is about to begin.



Black Blade (7/27/02; 18:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 81642)
Testing The Rebound
http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/26/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm

Snippit:

The other big economic reports of the week are of less interest to economists than they may be to traders. Economists won't pay much attention to the second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday. (They call it a rear-view number, telling us what things used to be like rather than what they are like now.) But it may still jolt the market. While economists think GDP grew 2.3 percent, their estimates could be wildly off this time around. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is revising past GDP reports, and without knowing what those revisions will look like it's hard for economists to calculate second-quarter GDP. Furthermore, points out James Padinha, economist at Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder, this first take of GDP relies on assumptions about how the economy acted in the final month of the quarter. We all know what can happen when you assume.


Black Blade: The Wall Street crowd is hedging its bet now with such dismissals as this being a rear-view number. They have a good deal of fear about revisions to past data. On Wednesday we will see how well this data is assimilated.



Gandalf the White (7/27/02; 18:23:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81641)
Thanks Sir Pan ---- IT looks INTERESTING !
http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/134229.htm
Pan (7/27/02; 16:13:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 81633)
Babblefish.com translates the Title as:
New gold standard in view? Over a confused (?) G8-Paper
===
WHERE are you Contessa, when one need you ?
<;-)

Black Blade (7/27/02; 18:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 81640)
Got Bear Market Depressive Syndrome?
http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/26/pf/investing/q_bmds/index.htm

One shrink is seeing lots of it these days.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Can't think clearly? Feeling out of control? Weighed down by guilt? And all because you checked your anemic 401(k) balance? If an overwhelming sense of inadequacy, shame and regret wells up every time you see the Dow trend down, you may be suffering from Bear Market Depressive Syndrome (BMDS). So says Dr. John W. Schott, a portfolio manager for Steinberg Global Asset Management and chairman of the Department of Psychiatry at MetroWest Hospital in Natick, Mass. The author of the book "Mind Over Money," Schott says he's seeing a lot of cases of BMDS these days. Some of the telltale signs include feeling more worthless than a share of Worldcom and hopeless about your financial future.


Black Blade: So it's a syndrome now is it?



Black Blade (7/27/02; 18:02:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 81639)
'Stockalypse' Gives Sinking Feeling
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020727/column_stocks_week_2.html


Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - It's a betting game that the entire world is watching, as Wall Street investors could determine the course of the economy in the United States and abroad. Do they have the nerve to drive stocks up? The stock market's plunge has flushed out more than $7 trillion in wealth since the bubble burst in 2000 and people who got filthy rich during the Great Bull Market of the 1990s are suddenly feeling poor. Fair to wonder what impact this reverse wealth effect will have on consumer spending.

If the rope around people's necks winds tighter and they see more of their wealth go up in smoke, the risk is that consumers may tighten their purse strings, thereby shutting down the main engine driving the world's biggest economy and adding to Wall Street's woes. Indeed, people are getting tired of losing their shirts. Their 401(k) retirement plans have been turned into 911 emergency basket cases. The market is on course to post a third straight yearly decline. The last time that occurred was 1938 when investors were still reeling from the nasty memories of the Great Depression. The numbers speak for themselves. The Dow is down about 32 percent from its peak, the technology-laced Nasdaq composite has fallen an eye-popping 75 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 is down 45 percent.


Black Blade: Wall Street and Washington had based their hopes on hordes of retiring baby-boomers spending big in their retirement years to keep the economy humming along. Unfortunately they have instead watched their retirements vanish into thin air as over $7 Trillion went away to "money heaven", never to be seen again. Now we have daily "Perp Walks" as CEO's are led away in handcuffs before the cameras all in order to deflect attention away from the bigger problems and most culpable scoundrels. Herbert Hoover Jr. continues to talk tough, yet he has done very little (not that he can do much anyway).



R Powell (7/27/02; 17:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81638)
misetich
In regards to your 81632 post,
Is it really true that we have the Borg after Wall Street. Will they surrender? Resistance is futile!
Happy Saturday nite
Rich


Horatio (7/27/02; 16:54:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 81637)
Anglo
Looks like Anglo knew what it was doing when it hedged its gold and took the cash out of the country.That verifys what I have been saying for years.This whole hedging business was just a ploy to get wealth out of the ground before Mandela and his cronies could confiscate it.Its very simple ,borrow the gold 'sell it,take the cash out of the country and leave Mandela the communist with a mine that has a mortgage on it and a lien on the next 15 years worth of production.It was a brilliant move.
Now the confiscation comes to light and the biggest losers are the non-hedgers,because they took nothing out in advance.
I would not applaud hedgers in general ,but this move was necessary to salvage sommething.I expect S.A. mines to become unprofitable because of falling Dollar coupled with rising Rand and worker demands for more.....Gold should rise if S.A. mines become unprofitable or close.The only thing that can help S.A. now is higher prices,maybe the Cabal of Socialists had it planned this way in order to get control of the mines and then let the price rise. Then again maybe i'm too cynical....

misetich (7/27/02; 16:27:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81636)
What earnings recovery?
http://www.forbes.com/global/2002/0708/065.html
Snip:

And if investors buy stocks now on the strength of rapturous earnings estimates for the S&P 500 for 2002, they have an unpleasant surprise ahead. The index is trading at a projected price/earnings ratio of 21, based on analysts' estimates of operating earnings for component companies. The P/E for 2002 is 40% higher than the average multiple for the index over time and is sharply higher than the S&P's multiple in other bottoming periods. In the recession of 1990-91, the S&P 500 traded at a P/E of 14; and in the bear market of 1973-74, it was 7.

Earnings performance for 2002's first half was a sorry one. Company after company was forced to lower expectations or restate past results downward. How can the consensus justify such a healthy-looking multiple for the year as a whole? By forecasting a second-half profit boom that gushes up from nowhere: a 48% gain (from a year earlier) in the third quarter and a 45.7% one in the fourth, according to S&P analysts' forecasts. Included in the forthcoming profit explosion, as reported in First Call, are a 127% income increase in technology stocks in the third quarter and a 73% jump in the fourth and a hardly modest 19-fold rise in transportation earnings in the third quarter (mainly airlines), with an even larger gain forecast for the fourth.

It doesn't matter who is doing the forecasting--analysts who cover individual companies or market strategists who look at the economy as a whole. They're all Pollyannas. The company-by-company forecasts, assembled into a composite for the index, yield $51.15 in earnings for the S&P 500 this year. The big-picture fortune-tellers predict $45.01. These guys simply look at the operating earnings delivered last year and add a large growth factor plucked from the optimism in the air.

Optimism is almost always in the air. A study I did of estimates between 1982 and 1997 found that analysts' forecasts of earnings growth were on average triple the actual earnings growth of the S&P.

Misetich

Investors have been and more importantly are still being deceived by Wall Street analysts etc.

What is their game plan? Total wipeout of middle class savings and retirement?

It is time to get defensive and add physical gold as insurance to any portfolio

Got gold?

YGM (7/27/02; 16:27:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 81635)
Pan
http://ets.freetranslation.com:5081/
Here's a site for free translation just copy & paste...I'm still trying to make heads or tails of my translation...Free site but still not entirely understandable.....YGM

YGM (7/27/02; 16:19:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 81634)
misetich, Town Crier, Black Blade.......
Man you guys are on a roll today........
You've been dredging up some very serious and profound info today....Many thanks.....YGM

Pan (7/27/02; 16:13:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 81633)
!!! Explosiv !!! Just a rumor, or even more ??? New goldstandard is planed!!!
http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/134229.htm
Sorry, the posting is in german, on a german page, displayed today, but perhabs there is someone, who could translate it to english please.

My englisch writing knowledge is not sufficiently.

It is incredible, if this message is truth!

misetich (7/27/02; 16:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 81632)
Wall Street's Worst Nightmare
http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2002/0812/044.html?_requestid=946
Snip:

oseph Borg, a combative Alabama state securities regulator, is going after The Street. How many SECs will brokers have to answer to?

You don't mess with Joseph P. Borg. A former corporate and personal injury lawyer from Queens, N.Y. and the current Alabama state securities regulator, he hasn't lost a criminal case in five years. Since 1998 he has averaged 28 criminal convictions a year, one of the highest rates in the nation for a securities enforcer.

This might be of mild interest to non-Alabamans, except that Borg, 49, is now extending his pugnacious reach across the country--and aiming at Wall Street. If you thought New York's ambitious Attorney General Eliot Spitzer had overstepped his purview by going after Merrill Lynch, watch Borg.

Borg is the guy leading a coordinated states' investigation of wrongdoing on Wall Street--things like conflicts of interest between investment banks and analysts paid to cover their clients. His authority? He's president of the North American Securities Administrators Association, a $5 million (annual budget) nonprofit representing regulators from all the states, plus Canada, Mexico and the U.S. territories.

Already investigators from the 44 states that signed on are scouring thousands of pages of documents and e-mails from a dozen brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, hoping to turn up evidence that somebody violated a state securities law. Administrative or civil charges may not be enough, pronounces Borg: "If I find lying, cheating, stealing, that calls for jail time."

Wall Street, busy responding to federal investigations, is not happy with this posse of state-level enforcers. State regulators are probably best known for chasing away boiler rooms and bucket shops. But in the last few years the states have teamed up to go after microcap stock floggers, day-trading outfits and even companies like Lloyd's of London and Prudential, the latter of which paid $1.5 billion in the 1990s to resolve its limited partnership cases.
..............

Borg dismisses that scary prospect as a red herring, and so far he has faced down heavy lobbying by Wall Street to handcuff the states. In June Morgan Stanley head Philip J. Purcell went to Capitol Hill to push such legislation. In response, Borg made the rounds among legislators and held a press conference where he called Purcell's move "shameful, cynical and brazen." In the current environment, it was enough to kill the measure.

********************

Misetich

SEC, Congress, Senate, State Attorneys, investors, insurers and others going after investment banks

Got gold?

misetich (7/27/02; 16:00:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 81631)
Big Banks Prepaying The Piper
http://www.forbes.com/business/2002/07/24/0724topnews.html
Snip:

At issue at the hearing were a series of


More on Enron





Tear Sheet







transactions known as prepays, in
which a commodity trader promises to deliver a commodity in the future, but gets cash in advance from a financier. Normally when the trader gets paid for the commodity--whether it's oil, or electricity or anything else--he repays the financier. If there is a legitimate commodity deal, it's a standard arrangement, the bankers say. But in this case the commodity trader was Enron, so things got hairy.

Senate investigators say the banks helped Enron fake commodity trades so they could make what would ordinarily be billions of dollars in loans to Enron in ways that would let Enron avoid disclosing the debt to investors. Had Enron accounted for the loans properly, they would have shown roughly $14 billion in debt on its balance sheet rather than $10 billion. Had investors understood the true story of Enron's finances, they would have known to pull out of Enron stock much earlier, the investigators suggest.
.................

As it happened, the two banks are now among Enron's biggest creditors and are collectively on the hook for roughly $4 billion--big money even for them. Their losses will dwarf the roughly $200 million in fees the bankers collected at a time when Enron was hailed as the seventh- largest company in America.

Meanwhile, the two big banks, along with others, are defendants in civil suits by Enron shareholders, are likely subjects of criminal probes and have seen their analysts embarrassed for their rank ignorance about what Enron was doing.
.............
For J.P. Morgan, the same issue was vetted three months ago. At that time, a U.S. district court judge, Jed Rakoff, (the same judge involved in the WorldCom (nasdaq: WCOME - news - people ) case) ruled preliminarily in a dispute between J.P. Morgan and its insurers that J.P. Morgan's transactions with Enron appeared to be fraudulent: "These arrangements now appear to be nothing but a disguised loan--or at least have sufficient indicia thereof that the court could not possibly grant judgment to the plaintiff,'' Rakoff wrote in denying a motion by the bank. (See: J.P. Morgan Loses Round One.)
...............
J.P. Morgan still says the deals were legitimate and that "We had appropriately limited our Enron exposure by mitigating our risk through surety bonds, letters of credit and collateral." The insurers, of course, have refused to pay for the bank's loss. The bank has said its total exposure to Enron is $2.6 billion and that it has already written off $500 million of that total. This exposure could, of course, grow substantially if the shareholder lawsuits are successful.

In the lawsuit between J.P. Morgan and its surety insurers, Judge Rakoff found that Enron was buying nearly the same amounts of natural gas from a company called Stoneville as it was putatively selling to another company called Mahonia. Stoneville and Mahonia appeared to be owned and operated by the same people. Therefore it appeared that the bank was giving money to Enron based on a sham natural-gas trade.

What remains unclear is who was behind Mahonia, Stoneville and the other offshore entities involved in the Citigroup deals. The banks denied yesterday that they controlled the companies.

If there is anyone out there who knows the full story, he's not talking.
***********************************************
Misetich

JP Morgan TRAIL is definetely HOT HOT HOT and getting HOTTER - Will it end up freeing gold?

Lets see JP Morgan admit Enron owes them 2.6 billion of which they have taken provision of 500 million

They thought they were 'insured' but lost round one in that case

http://view.atdmt.com/OGI/iview/frbscbro00100051ogi/direct/01?
In the ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Jed Rakoff said insurance companies could withhold, pending resolution of the dispute, $965 million in payments on surety bonds to J.P. Morgan Chase (nyse: JPM - news - people ), a top Enron (otc: ENRNQ - news - people ) creditor, because there was sufficient evidence that Enron transactions presented as oil and gas sales were actually disguised loans.
"These arrangements now appear to be


More on J.P. Morgan Chase





Tear Sheet

Forbes 500s







nothing but a disguised loan--or at
least have sufficient indicia thereof that the court could not possibly grant judgment to the plaintiff,'' Rakoff wrote in denying J.P. Morgan's summary judgment against the insurers. The case will move into its discovery phase with a trial date--if it gets that far--set for December, the one-year anniversary of Enron's bankruptcy filing.

The bonds are designed to insure against the failure of a party to pay its obligation in a commercial transaction. In this case the transaction was designed to cover six natural gas and crude oil contracts with Mahonia-- an entity organized under the laws of the Channel Islands and affiliated with J.P. Morgan Chase--between June 1998 and December 2000. The insurers, including Chubb (nyse: CB - news - people ) and CNA Financial (nyse: CNA - news - people ), claimed that the Enron-Mahonia transactions were not legitimate sales, but disguised loans by J.P. Morgan to Enron.

As a result, the judge refused to force the insurers to honor the bonds, which the bank claimed required them to pay Mahonia when Enron filed for bankruptcy and failed to comply with its obligation to deliver the oil and gas, which Mahonia had paid for already.

In denying J.P. Morgan's motion, Rakoff pointed to insurers' evidence that Enron was buying nearly the same amounts of gas at nearly the same price from another entity called Stoneville Aegean at around the same time that it was selling gas to Mahonia. Stoneville and Mahonia, it appears, were set up by the same company, have the same director and the same shareholders, the judge wrote. It seemed, therefore, that J.P. Morgan was passing cash to Enron through Mahonia. Enron was supposed to be supplying oil and gas in return, but never was. J.P. Morgan was, rather, buying that energy from itself--and using the ruse as an excuse to make apparent loans to Enron.

.............

JP Morgan exposure in Brazil is over $2.6 billion

and plenty more exposure to telecom etc

How will it end? As Jim Sinclair points out the Feds will not want to be associated with crooks that got caught

Got gold?


TownCrier (7/27/02; 15:03:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 81630)
Julian Baring -- again
http://www.usagold.com/Denver/19970610.html
In light of the very recent market activity w/r/t gold, this speech warrants a reread for all those who haven't already committed it to memory.

R.

TownCrier (7/27/02; 14:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 81629)
Some more History for Mr. Gresham, everyone
http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2002/07/27/ccmkts127.xml&sSheet=/money/2002/07/27/ixcoms.html
HEADLINE: 1974? Now that was a bear market

UK Telegraph -- 27/07/2002

The very fabric of society was under threat in last slump, writes Philip Aldrick

For those with long memories and greying temples, the latest 31 months of bear market contraction scarcely warrant a damp brow. But 1974 - now that was a bear market. Stocks slumped, companies faced collapse and the very fabric of society came under threat.

"It was Armageddon," recalls Brian Winterflood, chairman of Winterflood Securities. "It was about whether communism would win, and the end of capitalism."

...Speaking at the time, Jim Slater, the founder of the boom-to-busted Slater Walker empire, summed up the nation's mood when he said people needed just three things - baked beans, Krugerrands and a gun to protect your family. ..."We were really in the doldrums. I personally had tinned food in the attic and Krugerrands buried in the garden. I'm serious."

------(click url for more)------

Good perspective on what is, was, and may yet come to pass.

R.


TownCrier (7/27/02; 14:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 81628)
Pakistan has money to burn
http://www.dawn.com/2002/07/27/ebr1.htm
HEADLINE: Govt to hire fund managers: Productive use of forex

KARACHI, July 26: The government is consulting triple 'A' rated international fund managers for the productive utilization of its foreign exchange reserves now close to 7 billion dollars.

Well placed authoritative sources say that the government has decided in principle not to place these reserves in any equity and speculative business but would invest it in fixed income fund.

[Finance Minister] Shaukat Aziz said that government's focus was on the growth and not on the revenue. "Revenue is generated by growth," he pointed out. He said that well directed policies have resulted in foreign exchange reserves going up to 7 billion dollars and a market driven foreign exchange rate.

He defended State Bank of Pakistan's intervention in the currency trading which has kept the dollar rate stable around Rs60 without which it would have come down to Rs55 and could have exposed exporters to huge losses.

------(full text at url)------

If it's growth that's wanted, Pakistan should consider growing the size of its 65 tonne gold asset base.

R.

Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 14:39:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 81627)
Bread and Derivatives
http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/site_packages/2002/june_brazil_events/adesg_speech.html
"So, the United States has been living on Japan, on China, on other parts of the world, from which, under the existing monetary-financial system, an IMF system, was able to extract product, from the world, in much the same way that the Romans once, after the conclusion of the Second Punic War, relied increasingly on looting the world around them, as a way of surviving. And it was that looting of the world around the Roman Empire, which ultimately, in a long process, brought about the collapse of the Roman Empire. Because Rome destroyed its ability to survive, by depending upon the nations it was looting. And when that looting no longer was possible, then Rome itself collapsed. That is the condition of the United Kingdom, and that is the condition of the United States today.

"So, that's what the current account deficit really reflects."

(BTW, I have no knowledge as to whether LLR deserves the controversial reputation he has, but I DO love to read history, and anyone providing such an overview will get my attention. Advice: He goes in and out of long wind-ups to his intended points. Skim until you find parts that grab, or you may not survive such a long read.)



Black Blade (7/27/02; 14:22:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 81626)
The Glory of Gold by By Jonathan Hoenig
http://smartmoney.com/tradecraft/index.cfm?story=20020724&adv=articles&advtype=tradecraft

July 24, 2002
PERHAPS IT'S TAKEN the evaporation of trillions of dollars of stock-market wealth and several of the biggest corporate bankruptcies in history to get us thinking, finally, about the risks associated with paper assets.

While some of you might think hard assets like gold bullion are owned only by Montana Militia types, I've found owning gold to be a satisfying, prudent and (lately) profitable endeavor. And with U.S. equities and the dollar in virtual free-fall these days, my interest in the precious metals has become something of a fetish. (rest of article is for paying subscribers – no thanks).

Black Blade: Jonathan Hoenig is known as "the Capitalist Pig" and is a frequent guest on FOX's "Cashin In".



Black Blade (7/27/02; 14:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 81625)
WALL ST. EXEC IN SUICIDE
http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/19723.htm


Snippit:

July 27, 2002 -- Wall Street veteran Edwin Crooks Jr. yesterday jumped to his death from the sixth-floor window of his deluxe Rector Place apartment after struggling with someone who was trying to stop him. "This [the market slump] is nothing compared to 1987," said one close friend. "[He's] a veteran broker who can handle the ups and downs of the market." "This is an awful tragedy, and we are terribly saddened by his death," said a spokeswoman for Goldman Sachs, the parent company to Spear, Leeds & Kellogg.


Black Blade: The beginning of a deluge of swan-diving Wall Street brokers? I think that someone had better look over the books. Hmmm…



aussie (7/27/02; 14:03:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 81624)
Good One Rich!
Thanks for explaining to this novice here that Ted Butler is an analyst.

There is one thing for sure, - nobody could accuse you goldbugs of not having a sense of humour!

Cheers

TownCrier (7/27/02; 13:59:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 81623)
Some face decisions tougher than "What's for lunch?"
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm?id=1027696951nL25322769&Section=Main&page=Home&channel=Features%20and%20Analysis%20&objectid=C5C3675B-FF61-11D4-867D00D0B74A0D7C
HEADLINE: ANALYSIS-Iraq, euro cast cloud over Blair's holiday sun

Excerpts:

At a news conference in his Downing Street home on Thursday, Blair hoped an aide would dazzle reporters with a blizzard of graphs, showing how key public services were improving.

But nobody was interested.

Instead, Blair was barraged with questions about backing a U.S. invasion of Iraq and facing up to his key domestic poser -- whether to urge Britons to join Europe's single currency.

Blair insists he has not ruled out a referendum on euro entry. But the public likes the pound and should he stake all on the vote and lose, his political standing would be shattered.

At least that is his decision though. Possible military action against Iraq is in the lap of President George W. Bush, who has declared it part of an "axis of evil".

Blair has made a virtue of standing unwaveringly beside Bush since September 11 attacks on the United States, making it almost impossible to decouple if America did target Saddam.

-----(click url for more)------

What was your week's hardest choice? Like most, it was probably a financial one. There *may* be a point to this...

R.

TownCrier (7/27/02; 13:45:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 81622)
Bill for "fast track" trade authority gets set upon fast track
http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/020727/b072704.html
WASHINGTON (AP) - The House on Saturday narrowly endorsed a major trade bill that U.S. President George W. Bush says could be a key to American supremacy in the world economy...

The pre-dawn 215-212 vote to give the president broad trade negotiating authority came some 11 hours after Bush travelled to Capitol Hill to personally appeal to Republicans to support him.

Key elements of Trade Promotion Authority:

-Gives the president the authority to negotiate international trade agreements subject to a single yes or no vote by Congress without amendments.

-Sets overall negotiating objectives, including to reduce trade barriers...

-Makes it a goal to reduce tariffs and barriers that decrease market opportunities for U.S. companies for the service industry, intellectual property, electronic commerce and textiles.

-------(see URL for more details)-----

Gold shines better in the sun than in the rain, but come what may, it shines.

R.

misetich (7/27/02; 13:44:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 81621)
The J.P. Morgan Chase Watch
http://www.innercitypress.org/jpmchase.html
Snip:

Update of July 22, 2002: on July 16 Morgan Chase denied rumors in European markets that it was having liquidity problems. "The rumors are untrue and irresponsible," a company spokesman said in New York. The bank's stock fell in European trade. Dealers there cited rumors of liquidity problems... Morgan Chase's operating earnings, announced on July 17, were below expectations, missing analyst estimates by 7 cents a share. Profits were hurt by its large emerging-market debt business, Dina Dublon, the chief financial officer, said in a conference call. Ol' Ms. Dublon stressed that she did not think that the bank's corporate businesses were ready to rebound. "We have not seen a turnaround yet, and we are very cautious about the outlook for market-sensitive businesses for the second half of the year," she said. The N.Y. Times opined: that response disappointed some analysts and investors who have been waiting since J. P. Morgan and Chase Manhattan merged at the end of 2000 for profits to revive in the company's investment banking and lending businesses. The Financial Times: " JP Morgan [Chase] reported operating earnings of $1.17 billion, or 58 cents a share, during the quarter - up 50 per cent from the same period a year earlier. The comparison is somewhat misleading because the bank wrote down $1 billion in losses during the second quarter last year for its massive private equity portfolio, JP Morgan Partners. JP Morgan wrote down another Dollars 125m this quarter - mostly on its private holdings." In other news for Morgan Chase, the company was named as a defendant in the lawsuit filed last week by three California pension funds against banks that underwrote corporate bonds forWorldCom. The pension funds, led by CalPERS, are seeking $318 million in damages... Until next time, for or with more information, contact us.

...................

Update of July 8, 2002: As the Enron case turns: two weeks ago Chubb filed a direct claim against Morgan Chase, stating that the bank "surreptitiously lent money to Enron, by way of Mahonia, and expected to be repaid . . . by Enron, with interest" directly or via other offshore vehicles. A bit delayed, Morgan Chase general counsel William McDavid played the populist card: "What's interesting here is that the insurance companies in this case have done what some insurance companies do all too often. They take in premiums for years, but when a claim is made, they litigate and try to fight paying the claim." Morgan Chase claims that everyone, including the insurers, "knew that the (Mahonia) deals were part of a structured financing transaction for Enron's general corporate benefit." What interests or should interest regulators, especially the Federal Reserve, at least as much as NY D.A. Morgenthau, is whether these were in reality loans that the bank did not declare. You thought banks were regulated but it may be that you were wrong, as least in this case...

....................

Update of June 24, 2002: "We've heard the deck chairs on the Titanic were comfortable -- and the management buzzwords hypnotizing" -- the executive dining suites at the top of Morgan Chase's midtown Manhattan headquarters now contain two pool tables as well as ping-pong, pinball, and foosball tables. Rather than referring to Nero, press accounts state that "it's all to entertain executives going through the company's management training course, Leadership Morgan Chase. Groups of about 100 mid- to senior-level executives attend the two-day course each month. They sit through intensive sessions, including motivational speeches by former and current business leaders" -- whether Jack Welch is now worth what Morgan Chase paid him is a question we have -- "and at the end of the day the doors are unlocked, and the session attendees are let loose in the makeshift arcade. Bill Harrison, Morgan Chase's chairman and CEO, says that he stays late and shoots pool with the gang, and that he is 'pretty good.'" We envision that Mr. Harrison will have a lot more time on his hand for pool in the near future.... More numeric: Morgan Chase has about $2.7 billion in exposure in Brazil. Argentina had hit the bank's profits by $411 million. "We're very comfortable with our levels of exposure in Brazil and we're comfortable with our business model in Brazil," said J.P. Morgan Chase spokeswoman Brooke Harlow. And the foosball players spin...

Update of June 17, 2002: Remember the Chase - Sumitomo copper trading scandal in the 90s? Earlier this year Morgan Chase settled up with Sumitomo for more than $120 million. The Financial Times of June 14 explains why: in essence, Sumitomo's Yasuo Hamanaka had only been "able to stay in business because of a secret payment made to a J.P. Morgan [Chase] banker, which has been linked to a loan that the U.S. bank advanced to the trader." We will not reiterate the FT's fine investigative article here, only the conclusion: "JP Morgan's decision to settle with Sumitomo means there is little likelihood of Winchester Commodities' unusual cash payments ever being fully investigated. Whether the Dollars 100,000 cash payment was ever connected to the arrangement of the JP Morgan loan will probably never be fully resolved. But it seems unlikely JP Morgan would have paid Sumitomo more than Dollars 120m if it had a completely clear conscience."

On more recent Morgan Chase scandals, Investment Dealers Digest of June 10 quotes a New York-based banking analyst that "a senior J.P. Morgan Chase official told him recently that the New York giant took a hit on credit derivatives related to Enron Corp. and Argentina late last year. This occurred shortly after J.P. Morgan issued its fourth-quarter call report talking about overall derivative losses for 2001, saying it had $376 million in such losses, much of it related to Enron and Argentina in the fourth quarter. The bank did not specify whether or not any of these losses were on credit derivatives... Analysts put the value of the underlying credits in J.P. Morgan's credit derivatives portfolio around $24 trillion." Ah, Morgan Chase...

.............

Update for May 13, 2002: Enron-related? Two weeks ago, Morgan Chase's "managing director of global commodities," Dinsa Mehta, abruptly left the company. Mehta was centrally involved in the Enron - Mahonia trading into which the House Committee on Energy and Commerce has been inquiring since March. In New York, Morgan Chase "global bullion risk manager" Donald Eckert said that Mehta "volunteered for retirement" after the global foreign exchange and gold trading desks were consolidated into a single department. "He was not fired at all, he chose to resign," Eckert said. The timing may be of interesting, including to the House Energy and Commerce Committee.... [See update in Report of May 20, 2002].

.............

Misetich

The J.P. Morgan Chase Watch

Got gold?


Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 13:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 81620)
"Can't you smell that smell?"
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=13923
Excerpt below from Doug Noland -- I read until I couldn't take it anymore. He quotes from JPM's description of its "BISTRO product". The smarmy smugness of someone sailing a homemade hydrogen balloon over New York City with 2,000 passengers onboard on a hot July afternoon oozes from it. Lawyers are gonna make a lot untangling these rats' nests. Or are they? Hydrogen blowing up produces H2O -- water vapor -- and it's hard to catch hold of that. (Yikes! I'm starting to sound like GR2 -- ;) loved your latest, man! ;)

Begging the question: "Why the complexity, if not to conceal the lack of true economic worth?"

For me, SPV also stands for "Special Purpose Vocabulary", and cons always develop an "insider" language to work their marks, and stay a step ahead of the "authorities". This one will be right there in the History of Con Games with Ponzi, chain letters, and MLMs, only bigger.

Enjoy!

Noland: JP Morgan was instrumental in developing sophisticated Credit default "structured transactions," with the development of its BISTRO product back in 1997 (convenient for the imminent telecom debt Bubble!). From JP Morgan's website: "JP Morgan's BISTRO product is a synthetic CLO [collateralized loan obligation] where risk transfer is achieved via a credit default swap on a large portfolio of reference entities rather than through a sale of the specific assets. This allows banks to buy credit protection to mimic the regulatory capital treatment of a traditional securitization while preserving its competitive funding advantage. Specifically, an originating bank buys protection from JP Morgan on a portfolio of exposures via a portfolio credit default swap and JP Morgan, in turn, purchases protection on the same portfolio from the BISTRO SPV [special purpose vehicle]. The originating bank provides credit enhancement through retention of the first loss risk. The BISTRO SPV is collateralized with government securities that it funds through the issuance of notes, whose notional is substantially smaller than the notional of the reference portfolio. The BISTRO Notes are credit-tranched and sold into the capital markets."


TownCrier (7/27/02; 12:45:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 81619)
An update is in! -- Rocket School of Economics: "Gold Bugs Beware -- part 2."
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/rocketschool/vonbraun.html
The Professor, back on June 10th sounding one of very few cautionary notes to be found about the vulnerability of gold stock investments in the midst of their investors' ebullience at the runup, now follows up with another caution that the worst may not yet be over for the mining sector. Again he emphasizes that in this market, gold, free of any counterparty liabilty, remains the most attractive investment vehicle going forward.

Click the URL above to review this latest commentary, with access to the previous.

nickel62 (7/27/02; 12:23:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 81618)
Remember who really got us into this mess, and even if the sheepel can't figure it out we ought to remember who he is>>>>>>
/26 Andrew Sullivan - The Dog That Didn't Bark — Just Where Is Bob Rubin These Days?



The New York Sun
EDITORIALS & OPINION

The Dog That Didn't Bark — Just Where Is Bob Rubin These Days?

Andrew Sullivan Wonders Why Questions Aren't Being Asked of Clinton's Treasury Guru - Where's Rubin?

You might think that the Treasury secretary who presided over the now-bursting bubble might be a logical subject for some of the discussion out there right now. But: Nuh-huh. Like Waldo in a cartoon, Robert Rubin is somewhat invisible these days, lost in the lazy media impulse to blame whoever's in power now. But think about it for a minute. Here's a guy who poured cold water on Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comments. Along with Phil Gramm, he helped kill legislation to make derivatives more transparent — and then he went to Citigroup the same year the bank engaged in a dubious scheme to keep Enron's paper profits afloat. He's widely synonymous with the boom that just went bust in a big and very bad way. Worth a reporter's phone-call or two, wouldn't you think? Nada in the New York Times (surprise!), the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal — or anywhere, as the story broke. Even liberals like Slate's Tim Noah picked up on this weird lacuna.

Of course, Mr. Rubin hasn't really been absent from the media these last couple of weeks. He has one of the best media rolodexes in the country and spends almost as much time as Colin Powell and Richard Holbrooke manipulating it. There was a piece in the Washington Post last Sunday on the financial crisis and its roots, but it wasn't likely to ask questions about Mr. Rubin's responsibility. Why? Because Mr. Rubin wrote it himself. I guess it saves time for financial reporters. Rather than get a reporter to translate Mr. Rubin's views into a "news" article, the Post cut out the middle-man and got Mr. Rubin to do his own spin himself.

Or take Gloria Borger's piece in U.S. News. She asked herself the good and important question: Was this Bubba's Bubble? Just because the Nasdaq went up 80% in one year on his watch, just because interest rates stayed artificially low, just because his Treasury secretary kept talking up the markets, just because staffing at the SEC in New York collapsed in those years — none of that means President Clinton had anything to do with it. How does Ms. Borger know this? Because Mr. Rubin told her! "Blaming Clinton is absolutely ridiculous," Mr. Rubin is quoted as saying in her piece. "We all have our faults, and Bill Clinton has his faults. But money and greed are not among them." This follows the Clintonian device of asserting that the only impropriety or misjudgment in Mr. Clinton's eight years was a sordid extra-marital affair. But that isn't the point, Gloria. We've just gone through a wrenching boom-and-bust. Who gets the blame for letting the boom get out of hand in 1998 and 1999? "Corporate debt was up and so was the stock market. There had to be a period of adjustment," Mr. Rubin tells Ms. Borger. "Who gets the blame? No one in particular, says Rubin." No one in particular? Hmmm. Whom could Mr. Rubin have been thinking of?

Even if you buy the notion that the bubble was something the Clinton administration could not have done much about (although Mr. Greenspan is another story), isn't the Mr. Rubin angle noteworthy? He has already conceded he placed a call to the Bush Treasury Department, floating the idea of an Enron bail-out before the company's collapse. His own bank, Citigroup, is now being investigated for constructing a phony pre-pay scheme to hide Enron's losses in 1999. He was the most senior administration official in charge of the economy when the boom reached its crazy peak. Wouldn't this disqualify him just a little bit from being regarded as neutral on these matters? Wouldn't it even require some reporters to put in a couple of qualifiers to his comments? Nope. Who do they think he is? Mr. Powell?






Mr Gresham (7/27/02; 11:41:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 81616)
"Who ARE these guys?"
You are an _amazing_ bunch!

One of my "life mysteries" has been trying to figure out if humans overall are smart, or stupid (self-destructive). I mean, the behaviors go both ways, don't they?

Like I've said before, if you are "average" human citizens posting here, then my hope for renewal after the shakeout may just survive long enough to see it.

I should be working -- to rescue my remaining ass-ets out of the Fiat Fire -- but I can't resist reading every single word you write.

My thought on this week? When this thing goes where it is going, no one will be able to say we haven't paid our dues getting there...

Gandalf the White (7/27/02; 11:30:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 81615)
WOWSERS SIR Slingshot ! You have my FULL attention NOW !
slingshot (7/27/02; 08:27:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 81609)
Seige Engine
===
The PROMO check is "in the mail" !
WOW, WHAT an Agent !!
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (7/27/02; 10:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81614)
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