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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/27/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

law (05/27/02; 23:56:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 76732)
Call to Contest
$$$$$ 315.70 $$$$$ Just oscillating naturally!

Pizz (05/27/02; 23:00:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 76731)
R Powell - Physical Only
Good post. Last time I checked fiat was still alive and hangin' in there.

If it get's really bad, and I think it will, we should get a deflationary hit first (next couple of years), then a roll into hyper inflation as the government monitizes everything it can (gold into the many thousands - but later). Unfortuately, most of the populace are going to lose all their assets in the deflation.

Most people, myself included, don't have the assets to buy enough gold/silver in the next 6 months or so to survive a prolonged period of unemployment. I have physical (1:7 gold/silver) for short term disaster capital (nuke in NY, brokerage down and out, etc. It's a last chance, get out of Dodge at any cost, start over capital, or just to survive as long as I can (probably won't want to at my age and under those kind of circumstances, no small kids to worry about THANK GOD).

A portion of my capital has been going into paper gold/silver (stocks are my choice, since I've never played futures) to keep from having to use my last line of defense in a short term deflationary crunch. If deflation hits hard, I lose my job, etc., history says (and should replay) gold stocks will rise on a leveraged basis. I will then have my fiat that will allow me to still be a "have" rather than a "have not" ward of the state. Without the fiat gains, I will lose my physical to expenses way too quickly.

If I put all my eggs into physical over the next year, I'd need a moon shot in physical to survive, and since I've got my small stash already, it will take more than anything I've read ANYWHERE to convince me that gold/silver stocks will be worthless as physical just doubles or triples (a much more likely outcome over the near term).

If we get into a senario where all paper burns literally overnite and investors can't get out of their paper gold stocks, IMHO, it will be a crash that even the physical holders will end up having to choose wether to beat their gold into spearheads or plowshares. I can't survive that environment - nor will I want to for very long.

Rich, you're being realistic, and prudent. Keep up the good work. I've had a hecla of a good time over the last three months with a small portion of my fiat.

Pizz

Black Blade (05/27/02; 22:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 76730)
Trust doesn't live on Wall St. anymore
http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/stories/20020525/340114.html

Snippit:

Market watcher James Grant says the bear market playing itself out across the street from his offices, at the New York Stock Exchange, will produce a cycle of recrimination. William Behrens a former research analyst, says the element of trust in the investment business no longer holds.

Snippit:

NEW YORK - The title of Fred Schwed Jr.'s 1940 book Where Are The Customers' Yachts? was taken from an anecdote about a man showing a visitor around Manhattan. Down at the waterfront, the New Yorker points out some impressive boats, saying they're the bankers' yachts." A little later he points out the stockbrokers' yachts. To which the visitor replies: "Where are the customers' yachts?"

This funny tale is most likely apocryphal. But the wide contempt in which Wall Street and its denizens were held after the Crash of 1929 and the collapse into the Great Depression was real: Bankers were reviled on Main Street America as "banksters" -- little more than gangsters who had robbed a generation of its prosperity -- and stockbrokers were held in similar low regard.

Black Blade: In today's world of Enronitis, accounting scandals ala Arthur Andersen, Wall Street deceptions ala Merrill Lynch, phoney corporate book keeping, etc. Many investors (those who are not tapped out) have decided not to get back into the "investing" game. Trading volume on wall Street is very low these days � and for good reason. Who can you trust when Wall Street has turned into a criminal enterprise? While the banksters are squandering the wealth and living high on the dollars of ordinary hard working Americans, those same hard working people see the value of their portfolios diminished. Yet, we see the Pimps of Wall Street and the Financial Media Trolls tell us all is well and that it will get better next quarter, �.. no, make that the second half, ��.. no, make that early next year, ��.. no, ��..

I think I will go down to the water front and count the yachts.

timbervision (05/27/02; 22:41:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 76729)
YGM, Belgian, Aristotle, Sierre Madre, and R Powell
YGM - your resounding "No" was mobilizing. We really do need to think in terms of a "dramatic" event when thinking about gold's eventual move.

Belgian and Aristotle - the two of you are a force. I am stunned by the opportunity that we all have here to even contemplate physical gold vs. paper gold. Nowhere else on the net is this distinction even approached as it is here.

Sierre Madre - your thought that for gold to reach 30,000 would require a stymying of the talking cabal heads. This may be, but consider Belgian's analogy, "when the ship capsizes you stop pumping water and jump into the sea." I don't think the POG to 30,000 is caused by the general public rushing to buy gold but from the massive fiat debt bubble that has burst. This is a force from behind. I've tried thinking of it as an upsidedown pyramid growing ever larger, kept in balance by a massive computer program, and when destabilized no amount of recalabrating will stop the collapse.

R Powell - I am no one to comment on your gold vs. paper thoughts but I'll wade in anyway. I am under the impression that the mining shares will not pay out handsomely in fiat and that even a lesser amount of physical gold now will leave you with a greater future real purchasing and bill paying power than if you stay in paper. I can add that in the past year my main gains have come from paper but I have shifted more and more to physical which has slowed my portfolio growth.

Canuck (05/27/02; 22:32:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 76728)
@ Jimbo
I'm going to tell you a little story (my slighted opinion) that's worth as much as the next guys; nothing.

There are some stellar minds on this forum, I dare to say that there is some 'inside information' going about.

If you have been a lurker for some time I hope you have followed the discussions regarding 'super-leverage' (futures/options), gold shares (leveraged) and physical (not so leveraged?). There are those who would debate even the above, tooth-and-nail.

The 'physical gold advocate', (PGA) a term coined a year or two ago, as I see it, is a person not willing to leverage in any aspect because paper is ready to burn. Far too risky. There is a theory going about, right or wrong, that when the leverage of paper turns sour, the leverage will reverse sending physical 'to the moon'. I believe this is possible, however not before huge run-ups in gold stocks. There has been monstrous gains already in gold shares, I believe I read where some SA shares have quadrupled. Is it time to bail out of SA shares? Is SA, as you mentioned, ready to pop?

Let me tell you how I am playing this, I could be right, I could be dead wrong. I have $25,000 in physical, equally spilt between silver and gold. Maybe slightly more gold. I have about $25k in a 'tax sheltered' account with a couple juniors, a couple intermediate non-hedgers, an energy trust and a major NG producer. I have $20k in an on-line 'cash account' jumping in and out of a low-cost, non-hedging producer. I buy the dips, skimming a couple bucks a go, which I then 'roll-over' into the 'tax-sheltered' account and/or physical.

Ari's theory of physical only will one day prove to be correct. I agree with him 100%. However, until that day, lots of trading needs to be done!

Now let's look at numbers. Let's say for arithmetic sake that I am 25k/25k/25k. Physical has appreciated 18% in the last 6 months. Account A is up 50% and account B is up 90%. Can one sift from A and B to build up physical reserve? Of course! Suppose one is fotunate enough to build the accounts to 75k (physical), 25k paper, 25k paper. Then one day the paper catches fire and is worthless! Well in retrospect if the original money was put into gold completely one had 75k to begin with. However, if one was to luck on his hand and the 25k paper/25 paper was the double or triple before conversion to physical one could have 100k or plenty more of gold metal, the real McCoy.

This is where I was going the other day in the previous post. Suppose your 10k (paper)appreciated a few grand every couple of quarters. This is not an outlandish statement because it has, yes? Sift off the 'cream', convert the profits to physical keeping the original $10,000. Over time you will build a physical nest-egg and when, not if, physical rides to the moon you are in. If the paper burns, becomes worthless, the leverage of physical will take over.

If, as Ari predicts, paper (currency, gold stock/options) becomes absolutely worthless, gold will trade at huge multiples. FOA has gold one day at $30,000/oz., a 100 multiple of today. The 100 multiple is easy to compute mathematically, a dollar would be worth one cent, the inverse of the gold multiple. Can this matter? I don't know.

Ari, FOA and other PGA's have never described the world of trade and worse, the world (period) in this enviroment. Would one trade (barter?) a gram of gold for an automobile with a locked-and-loaded revolver in one's vest?

Would one trade dollars via a wheelbarrow and gold with a microscope?

A final thought. If gold does run large I might be inclined not to be in SA. I believe the run in SA has been dollar/rand induced. If that reverses gold may decline or lay flat in terms of SA stock. Has the leverage from that vehicle already played into out to some degree? Check the price of gold versus other currencies. Perhaps the leverage lies in currencies at home?

I hope you have caught the numerous discussions regarding 'nationializations' of gold mines. If a country goes to hell in a handbasket, ie: war, falling currency would they take over the mines? I believe yes. Why does the FED/Treasury refer to reserves as 'deep storage'? Is it possible that underground gold has been claimed, colateralized? If a hedger falls victim to a rapidly rising gold price, who is the underwriter of last resort? Yes, the BB's might be on the hook and who is backing that, yes, big brother.

The government has been very nasty in this gold scam over the last decade. Aiding and abetting the decline of gold, while securing it in case it rises to the moon. Very clever indeed.

The stories in recent days regarding Andy Smith are very interesting. When he quoted $340 an ounce and a bull market less than a year ago he was a HERO. Everyone quoted Mr. Smith. He has made a 180 degree reversal and it's not the number quoted that has my interest, it's what he has found out that has peaked my curiousity.

This 'gold game' is a bizarre one Jimbo. One thing I have found out over the last 5 years is that if you go searching you will find numerous opinions, all equally diverse and equally wrong.

So there you go, gold may be $68 or $30,000 in the future, place your bets. If it hits 4 digits or more every Tom, Dick and Uncle Sam will want it.

Gold - Get you some and a vest.

Black Blade (05/27/02; 22:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 76727)
Nuclear fear: 'Death of the Indian subcontinent'
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/28/1022243318697.html

Snippit:

A full-scale nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could kill up to 12 million people instantly and injure 7 million, United States intelligence reports estimate as tension over Kashmir intensifies. The report came as Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf said today he would not start a war with India but promised to maintain support for the "freedom struggle" in disputed Kashmir.

Musharraf, a key ally in the US-led war on terrorism, has come under increasing international pressure during the most recent escalation of tensions with India that has sparked a massive military buildup, with a million troops arrayed on both sides of the "line of control" frontier in Kashmir.

Worried about the prospect of all-out war between the nuclear-powered neighbours, US President George W Bush, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other world leaders have urged the two countries to pull back from the brink and told Musharraf he should do more to prevent cross-border incursions into Indian territory for terrorism.

Musharraf said Pakistan will not initiate war, "but if war is thrust upon us, every Muslim is bound to respond in kind" and would "fight to the last drop of blood." One military analyst warned that radioactive fallout in the Himalayas would mean the "death of the subcontinent". The Pentagon's assessment of casualties found that even a "more limited" nuclear war would overwhelm hospitals across Asia and require vast foreign assistance to battle radioactive contamination, famine and disease.

Zian Mian, a Pakistani physicist at Princeton University, said the two countries were racing to expand their nuclear arsenals. "The Pakistani uranium enrichment facilities, as far as we know, are working three shifts around the clock," he said. Brian Cloughley, a south Asia military analyst and retired Australian army officer, said: "The trouble is that both sides imagine that a nuclear bomb just makes a bigger bang. "They have got no concept of the sheer magnitude of the disaster of a nuclear exchange. Radioactive fallout in the Himalayas would mean the death of the subcontinent."

Black Blade: In recent days one Pakistani General has said that "the birds" should fly � referring to nuclear tipped missiles. Also, another statement has been made that the Muslim population are ready to die as martyrs in jihad against the "infidels". Then there is the wildcard � China. China is a traditional ally of Pakistan since the border clashes between China and India several years ago. Once war breaks out, who knows if China will move against India in a bid to conquer more territory? We do live in "Interesting Times".

Gandalf the White (05/27/02; 22:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 76726)
The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

12 th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.8 $$$$ Brett Woods (05/27/02; 21:19:19MT msg#: 76720

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365

$$$$ 298.5 $$$$ Mexican (05/27/02; 15:33:32MT msg#: 76690
===
The action should pickup soon as the COMEX opens again !!
Do not wait tooooo long for that WINNING Price Entry.
<;-)

Aristotle (05/27/02; 21:58:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 76725)
AUthentic #76715 -- shabby analysis
You post -- On Paper Bashing:

"It seems to me, without investors the mines would not be able to produce. Therefore, those of you who have no time for mining stocks had better be accumulating your metal with a pick and a pan or risk coming across quite hypocritical."

With all due respect, pull thy head out of thy arse.

Conceivably, every mining operation in the world could be structured as closely held private companies.

Profits come from the sale of the product of their deliberate efforts to extract bits of Gold from the tight grip of Mother Earth. If, as you indicate, we need "some paper investors to keep the mines open," then they sound like poorly run business ventures to my tired old mind. In that light, why would anyone sharing your unique perspective feel either safe or even compelled to risk hard-earned monies on them in the form of publically traded stock?

Sorry for the gruff tone, but in light of your post, tit for tat is what you'll get.

Run. Run away. (from *minority* ownership in mines, that is. If you own the whole damned show, then "good for you!" I'd say.) See my post last Wednesday and counter it if you can.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade (05/27/02; 21:55:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 76724)
What's in Store for the Dollar?
http://www.aei.org/eo/eo14071.htm

Snippit:

In a shrinking global economy, everyone wants a weak currency, though no one says so. Each country needs a bigger piece of a shrinking pie, and a weaker currency helps to boost lagging demand at home. Awkwardly for other countries, it makes foreign goods more expensive and, thus, domestic goods more attractive. With excess capacity and a weaker currency, inflation is not really an issue. Most of the countries involved in the Asian debt crisis found themselves in these circumstances by mid-1997 and subsequently devalued. Japan, in fact, is still an economy with considerable excess capacity and is counting on help from a weaker yen and a U.S. recovery to boost exports.

A Weaker Dollar?

A new factor has emerged in the global currency markets this spring. A confluence of market events is suggesting that the U.S. economy may need a weaker dollar to drive a sustainable recovery. Since early this year, and mostly during April and May, the U.S. dollar has fallen by about 5 percent in value, while the stock market has weakened and interest rates have gone down by 30 to 40 basis points. Meanwhile, a jump in the April unemployment rate to 6 percent, the highest level since 1994, underscored corporate and market expectations of a weakening economy and weakening profits.

It will be very interesting to observe the response in the global economy should the recent drop in the dollar accelerate. American manufacturers and labor unions are screaming for a weaker dollar while the U.S. Treasury speaks uneasily about a strong dollar being in the nation's best interests. It may be in America's best interests when the world economy is strong, but it may not be in the best interests of the United States when domestic demand growth is insufficient to propel a sustainable recovery that includes a rise in capital formation.

Black Blade: Quite a good article really. As stated here over the last several weeks, a weaker US Dollar would be in the best interests of the US if a sustained economic recovery is desired. Since Gold is priced in US Dollars, the POG would rise (in US Dollar terms) as the Dollar weakens. Many have argued and stated their case that the USD is overvalued. It would appear that the race is on as nations worldwide struggle to weaken their currencies in order to grab a bigger piece of the shrinking Global economic pie. As currencies weaken, the citizens of the world will desperately seek to preserve their disappearing wealth. Much of that wealth preservation will be found in Gold. Gold has preserved the savings of many in recent years � the Asians who held Gold in 1997-1998 (Asian Contagion), those few lucky Argentines who thought to hold Gold, and now the Japanese who vicariously learn from the Argentines as the insolvent Japanese banks teeter on a mountain of crushing debt and bad loans.

sector (05/27/02; 21:38:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 76723)
@BlackBlade The India/Pak "Problem"
Thinking Bigger and Badder
India has cancelled military leaves and there is a massive border military buildup by [100s of thousands of soldiers] and Pakistan is saber rattling with its "Missiles". Mushareff is posturing as a strong military leader at the podium accordingly.

This one seems different...starting to spiral towards a disaster [I sincerely hope I'm wrong here].

Are we involved? Secretly egging India along? Providing AWACS intel? Pak Missile intercepts ready in a secret India military support role?

Getting Others to Do the Dirty Work?

Since the US knows the ultimate source of radical, "Death to all Jews [And Americans]" Muslim terrorists is Pakistan and the Wahabists in Saudi Arabia, why not get a proxy [India] to implement a nuclear retaliatory "Demonstration War" in Pakistan. Bin Laden would have nowhere to hide with Indian guards swarming around.

The US does not have a visible deterrent retaliatory policy regarding terrorist use of nuclear weapons. Absent such a policy [Which must be public for logical reasons], the terrorists know that one cannot be cobbled together AFTER their first use against us of home-made or store-bought nukes. The President, in other words, cannot simply justify nuclear retaliation against radical Muslim centers after they have struck us. Visualize the uproar from factions that want the US crippled.

Imagine the questions "Why didn't you pre-announce a terrorist nuclear deterrent policy?" "Would that not have prevented this first use?" "Deterrence has worked for 50 years hasn't it?". These would be especially difficult to answer in the aftermath of 10,000 dead in the target US city. Not to mention the Chernoblization Effect. Who would want to work in the future near a real ground zero?

Have we Already Capitulated in the War on Terror?

A central government that suggests, as VP Cheny did last week, "Terrorist use of nuclear weapons is...inevitable", is really saying that it has already capitulated...that US citizens need to get used to a nuked city here and there. That there is nothing we can do to stop it.

This policy weakness is palpable. The Administration lacks the will to implement a strict plan to round up known ME immigration scofflaws for fear of rankling the politically correct multi-culturalists, but DO have the gall to tell us to live with nukes.

The India/Pak spiral may be the actual, behind-the-scenes retaliatory policy implementation.

shades (05/27/02; 21:35:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 76722)
BLACKBLADES EARLY BIRTHDAY ANNOUNCEMENT
Hey Blackblade "CAN YOU FEEL THE LOVE " regards

Nomad (05/27/02; 21:19:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76721)
Boom Boom Out Go The Lights ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/05/26/wkash26.xml&sSheet=/news/2002/05/26/ixworld.html

Snippit :

'India can afford to lose 25 million people. But could Pakistan?'

Recent remarks have made clear how difficult that will be. An exasperated Western official who handles South Asia told The Telegraph last week: "The impression on the sub-continent is that nuclear bombs are just bigger bombs than other ones. There is no realisation that use of nuclear weapons would take them across a new threshold. There is a bigger gulf between them than ever."

The gung-ho, pro-nuclear mood is just as strong in Pakistan as it is in India and yesterday's test-firing of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles was greeted enthusiastically, with Gen Musharraf the cheer-leader in chief. "God is Great" he repeated three times on the anniversary of the birth of the prophet Mohammed, before telling a gathering of Islamic scholars that the test had been a success.

Earlier, the Vice Chief of Army Staff, General Mohammad Yusuf Khan, told senior officers: "Indians will get the message loud and clear that we also mean business. They must remember that Pakistan is a nuclear state - its people and armed forces are proud of that fact."

According to Lt-Gen Talat Masood, a former secretary of defence production, most Pakistanis think that death in a nuclear war with India would be justified "martyrdom".

Nomad : These Guys Are Seriously Nuts ...

Brett Woods (05/27/02; 21:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 76720)
The Lull
Interesting that Venus is rising in Virgo this week. Means good lovin' and stability for us all and this seems to be the case at least for me lately. What a buzz Andy Smith's published comments made! I have tried to be open minded about his commentary but it certainly is in contradiction to his previous statements. I tend to agree with other posters that he might be in someones pocket, or that potentialy, someone might be in his pocket if POG rises suddenly. Although I sold Cambior (AMEX/TSE-CBJ) at the days high a while back, I lost out. As others have said, it's usually a fools game to trade in a bull market. The reason I sold was that CBJ is hedged and POG was approaching the level of some of their hedges. It's now well past there and I have an unconfirmed feeling that Mitsui and Jipangu which owns 32% of Cambior along with some other hedged gold interests are tied in their desire to see a moderation in the POG increase.

I'm blinking my eyes at the recent acceleration of U.S. interest in gold and so if I were an analyst seeking to "be right" I'd bet on a regression toward the mean (rise) and $316 rings a bell. $308 would mean a more peaceful world. Venus blocks the influence of Mars through the first week in June, so I lean in this direction. $68 when Lebennon loves Tulips.

Sir Gandalf, June settlement $$$$315.80$$$$

I feel it's the right move for the U.S. to allow the Dollar to fall toward a level equalling the Euro. U.S. will advance its export revenue beyond Germany's wildest nightmares faster than you can say Schumacher. A dip below the Euro should see export revenue to equal Germany and Japan's combined export revenue. It's a matter now of seeing what is the sensible footing, both for the Dollar and for Gold.

@ The Victorian. If I'm not wrong, the Ashanti area is also a Placer with Aluvial deposits which make for easy and cheap expansion of production. They might be joining you on the ceiling (ha ha). At least you got your friends on the happy trail.

Brett Woods

Gandalf the White (05/27/02; 21:15:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 76719)
JUNK !!!!
BB --- you may need to get some NEW FILTERS !
<;-)

Black Blade (05/27/02; 21:07:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 76718)
Re: Gandy

Thanks, I got all pertinent emails. For some reason my email filter shifted everything into the junk folder. I will follow up tomorrow. Thanks.

- Black Blade

Waverider (05/27/02; 20:23:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 76717)
Black Blade
I may add Mongolia to my list of exotic travel/fishing destinations - sounds like a worthwhile adventure. Did you see the 230 lb. halibut hanging from the rafters in the lodge photo...not to be underestimated...it was hoisted out of the boat by helicopter. I have a beautiful 54lb. king salmon on my wall from Langara - it's a treat! Hey - have a Negro Modelo to wash the cake down! Cheers!

Gandalf the White (05/27/02; 20:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 76716)
< ; - )>>
HAPPU UNBIRTHDAY, Black Blade !!!!
Did you recieve my email and follow up on it ?
<;-)

AUthentic (05/27/02; 20:16:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76715)
On Paper Bashing
It seems to me, without investors the mines would not be able to produce. Therefore, those of you who have no time for mining stocks had better be accumulating your metal with a pick and a pan or risk coming across quite hypocritical. Even then, that pick is probably produced from a publicly traded company. Indeed, while I agree metal in hand is the safer investment, we still need some paper investors to keep the mines open.

Black Blade (05/27/02; 20:06:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 76714)
Re: Waverider - Fishing
http://www.angling-travel.com/taimen.html

Actually I hope to get out of country to fish Taimen (Mongolia) and even Peacock Bass (Venezuela - Amazon/Orinoco watershed). Perhaps in the next couple of years.

One of the largest living freshwater fish on earth, the Taimen (Hucho Taimen) lives within the waters of various rivers and lakes. The Taimen is a particularly ferocious fish which can often attain weights of 50 kilos or more. If you are a fisherman, Mongolia is destination to be experienced and definitely not to be missed. Typically lemmings, rabbits, and prairie dogs are used as bait for Taimen. The Taimen resembles an elongated rainbow trout on steroids!

Now that's my kind of fishing!

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade (05/27/02; 20:05:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 76713)
Re: Leigh

Sounds good to me! This way I can have my cake and eat it too? Cheers!

- Black Blade

Leigh (05/27/02; 19:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 76712)
Black Blade
Now, Black Blade, don't kill this party. How about we say your "Forum birthday" is Memorial Day, and your real birthday can be in July? (My birthday's in July too, but I wouldn't argue with someone who wants to celebrate it now!)

Have some cake, Black Blade!!

Waverider (05/27/02; 19:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 76711)
Rumor????
Black Blade - don't open your present yet! :)

Black Blade (05/27/02; 19:37:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76710)
Musharraf dares India to go to war
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=11196809

Snippit:

NEW DELHI: With one eye fixed firmly on his domestic constituency and the other on the international community, General Musharraf delivered a hard-hitting speech that granted no fresh concessions on the terrorism issue and essentially dared the Vajpayee government to go to war.

What he did, therefore, in his televised address was to try and rally support for himself in the name of defending Pakistan. It was the desperate verbal equivalent of the missile tests he conducted last week. As Prime Minister Vajpayee has found out nothing unites a nation behind its leader so much as the threat of war. And Musharraf appears to have taken a conscious decision to up the ante.

Black Blade: Pakistan and India edge closer to the abyss.

Waverider (05/27/02; 19:37:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 76709)
Black Blade : Happy Birthday
http://www.langara.com/pages/promotion.htm
Here's a birthday present for you - the best salmon and halibut fishing in the world! Happy Birthday & Cheers!

Black Blade (05/27/02; 19:35:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 76708)
Thanks All, But...

Thanks all, but my birthday is still a few weeks off yet (July). The sentiment is appreciated. However, the two Gold kilo bars in the picture would be a nice birthday gift ;-)

- Black Blade

YGM (05/27/02; 19:10:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 76707)
BLACK BLADE.....A Yukon Ballad for You! (A personal favourite)
Happy Birthday old Son......There were Vikings in the Goldrush Too!
The Law of the Yukon

This is the law of the Yukon, and ever she makes it plain:
"Send not your foolish and feeble; send me your strong and your sane --
Strong for the red rage of battle; sane for I harry them sore;
Send me men girt for the combat, men who are grit to the core;
Swift as the panther in triumph, fierce as the bear in defeat,
Sired of a bulldog parent, steeled in the furnace heat.
Send me the best of your breeding, lend me your chosen ones;
Them will I take to my bosom, them will I call my sons;
Them will I gild with my treasure, them will I glut with my meat;
But the others -- the misfits, the failures -- I trample under my feet.
Dissolute, damned and despairful, crippled and palsied and slain,
Ye would send me the spawn of your gutters -- Go! take back your spawn again.

"Wild and wide are my borders, stern as death is my sway;
From my ruthless throne I have ruled alone for a million years and a day;
Hugging my mighty treasure, waiting for man to come,
Till he swept like a turbid torrent, and after him swept -- the scum.
The pallid pimp of the dead-line, the enervate of the pen,
One by one I weeded them out, for all that I sought was -- Men.
One by one I dismayed them, frighting them sore with my glooms;
One by one I betrayed them unto my manifold dooms.
Drowned them like rats in my rivers, starved them like curs on my plains,
Rotted the flesh that was left them, poisoned the blood in their veins;
Burst with my winter upon them, searing forever their sight,
Lashed them with fungus-white faces, whimpering wild in the night;

"Staggering blind through the storm-whirl, stumbling mad through the snow,
Frozen stiff in the ice-pack, brittle and bent like a bow;
Featureless, formless, forsaken, scented by wolves in their flight,
Left for the wind to make music through ribs that are glittering white;
Gnawing the black crust of failure, searching the pit of despair,
Crooking the toe in the trigger, trying to patter a prayer;
Going outside with an escort, raving with lips all afoam,
Writing a cheque for a million, driveling feebly of home;
Lost like a louse in the burning . . . or else in the tented town
Seeking a drunkard's solace, sinking and sinking down;
Steeped in the slime at the bottom, dead to a decent world,
Lost 'mid the human flotsam, far on the frontier hurled;
In the camp at the bend of the river, with its dozen saloons aglare,
Its gambling dens ariot, its gramophones all ablare;
Crimped with the crimes of a city, sin-ridden and bridled with lies,
In the hush of my mountained vastness, in the flush of my midnight skies.
Plague-spots, yet tools of my purpose, so natheless I suffer them thrive,
Crushing my Weak in their clutches, that only my Strong may survive.

"But the others, the men of my mettle, the men who would 'stablish my fame
Unto its ultimate issue, winning me honor, not shame;
Searching my uttermost valleys, fighting each step as they go,
Shooting the wrath of my rapids, scaling my ramparts of snow;
Ripping the guts of my mountains, looting the beds of my creeks,
Them will I take to my bosom, and speak as a mother speaks.
I am the land that listens, I am the land that broods;
Steeped in eternal beauty, crystalline waters and woods.
Long have I waited lonely, shunned as a thing accurst,
Monstrous, moody, pathetic, the last of the lands and the first;
Visioning camp-fires at twilight, sad with a longing forlorn,
Feeling my womb o'er-pregnant with the seed of cities unborn.
Wild and wide are my borders, stern as death is my sway,
And I wait for the men who will win me -- and I will not be won in a day;
And I will not be won by weaklings, subtle, suave and mild,
But by men with the hearts of vikings, and the simple faith of a child;
Desperate, strong and resistless, unthrottled by fear or defeat,
Them will I gild with my treasure, them will I glut with my meat.

"Lofty I stand from each sister land, patient and wearily wise,
With the weight of a world of sadness in my quiet, passionless eyes;
Dreaming alone of a people, dreaming alone of a day,
When men shall not rape my riches, and curse me and go away;
Making a bawd of my bounty, fouling the hand that gave --
Till I rise in my wrath and I sweep on their path and I stamp them into a grave.
Dreaming of men who will bless me, of women esteeming me good,
Of children born in my borders of radiant motherhood,
Of cities leaping to stature, of fame like a flag unfurled,
As I pour the tide of my riches in the eager lap of the world."

This is the Law of the Yukon, that only the Strong shall thrive;
That surely the Weak shall perish, and only the Fit survive.
Dissolute, damned and despairful, crippled and palsied and slain,
This is the Will of the Yukon, -- Lo, how she makes it plain!

Robert Service:

sector (05/27/02; 19:09:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76706)
@CavenMan...In a Thunderstorm a 1 iron is Essential [As you already know]
...because even GOD can't hit a 1 iron.

Therefore one is safe from the "Bolts".

YGM (05/27/02; 18:52:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 76705)
Aristotle (05/27/02; 15:54:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 76693)
Thank You....
I am indeed gratified that you read my rambles....You have given much of yourself to this forum and it was not lost on most...Much appreciated....Ken

R Powell (05/27/02; 18:43:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76704)
YGM // Cavan Man

Thanks!

slingshot (05/27/02; 18:37:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 76703)
ITS OFFICIAL!
Black Blades Birthday
Happy Birthday Black Blade.

The Ballad has you pegged!
Slingshot--------------<>

Cavan Man (05/27/02; 18:28:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 76702)
R Powell
Hey Rich. I second that thought FWIW. I've not chosen your path but do believe the "american dream" is all about choices and the freedom to choose. His "rants" do definitely come across to me as being high and mighty as well as less than gracious. This "Aristotle" has a raw edge. I remember a different tone. I am not impressed.

YGM (05/27/02; 18:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 76701)
Rich Powell.....
The Paper Debate.....
As a paper basher myself, (hope I'm not butting in here)
I must be truthful and admit that all that money I've many times complained about losing Gold Mining was made on Gold and Diamond Stocks :>))

I just hope those who have 100% gains take some profits and get some Physical Insurance....I respect everyone's quest for cash to buy a better life, no matter how they achieve that and I should myself be less opinionated in these matters myownself.....Ken

Leigh (05/27/02; 18:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76700)
PARTY TIME!
Black Blade's Birthday Ballad

Tonight we gather around our screens
To honor Black Blade on the day of his birth
A birth that brought forth a man so keen
That thousands now honor his writings of worth.

California "bugs" - let all take note
Grasshoppers he rescued from darkness and chill
Yes, Black Blade cares for the least of these
His noble heart forgiving them still.

He culls nearby forests, lakes, and skies
Of God's animal creatures sent by His hand
Black Blade gives thanks as his freezer he fills
For a harvest so great in the wilderness grand.

A man of many interests, he grasps
Energy, gold, foreign lands, and finances
Yet his favorite words, oft-repeated, are simple:
"Get out of debt now, store food, don't take chances!"

Yet, just for tonight, we'll party hard
Forgetting the world and its well-deserved woes
Let's eat, drink, and be merry together
In honor of Black Blade, in defiance of foes.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BLACK BLADE!!!!

slingshot (05/27/02; 18:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 76699)
Gold $30,000.00
Sierra Madre
I'd like to think that the Goldbug is a step ahead of the average Joe with varied degrees in his education of Gold and its repondsibilities,advantages and capabilities. One although being estatic over gold reaching $30,000.00 would have to ponder what kind of world he is living in. Would it make the difference if one had one ounce or one hundred? We all have been bashing this so called cabal and truly like to see the Goldbug have his day but I do not like the idea or the possiblity of becoming one of them in the process. They have already caused much pain and sorrow in the world and will continue to do so till the end of the FIAT game. What would this goldbug like to see? A correction of the POG to the stockmarket of one to one. Within the range 3500 to 5000. Would that inflict enough injury to knock them off their pedestal while maintaining stability in the market?
At the same time vindicating the goldbug and his long wait for justice. Yes, I want my cake and eat it too. I fear it is all or nothing in this game. If given the chance could there be a compromise. Only who would be doing the compromising. A poster stated that buying one ounce at a time had no effect on the market. That it was the PTB that would end the game when they wanted. To me it is not true.
If the Japanese and their buying influenced the market to raise the POG, then buying one ounce has its own power.
Maybe a national gold buying day would do it.

The posts are getting intense!

For all in the ARMED FORCES Past and Present. Thanks.

Slingshot----<><><><><><><>
<><><><><><><>
<><><><><><><>

R Powell (05/27/02; 17:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 76698)
Aristotle //paperbashing
Of paper investors,you said:

"They think that the primary benefit of Gold is something that is represented in its price, and therfore, if they can gain leveraged exposure to its price, they will somehow gain leveraged exposure to Gold's benefits. They will not."

Would it be okay to leverage the POG if I do so while stating that I'm not leveraging the "primary benefit" but a secondary or third or fourth benefit?
Is it wrong for a poor man to gain from years of hard study by investing in that which he thinks might gain himself and his family a little FIAT security. I know, you think the market will default and I'll not receive my gold. I don't now and never have had enough money for gold, this is all about FIAT PAPER MONEY. Enough to pay all my bills and gain some security. Hell, enough to buy some gold!
Physical possession is unquestionably the safest way.
I'll not agrue that but continually bashing all paper traders without anything new to add accomplishes little. I'm sure everyone loves physical but your rants of physical in hand to the absolute exclusion of all other investments is IMHO opinionated and misleading. You sound like Gollum.
I have no illusion that my words will change your opinions and I'll not speak out again but I believe it needed saying.
Respectfully,
Rich

Cavan Man (05/27/02; 17:43:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 76697)
@sector
Why not load it all. I understand you can hit a #1 iron eh?

Old Yeller (05/27/02; 16:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 76696)
Belgian,CPI adjusted gold chart
http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/CPI-Gold.gif

Mr.Smith's $68 dollar claim would appear somewhat far-fetched.

Sierra Madre (05/27/02; 16:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76695)
Gold at $30,000 US

There is a very old theory, probably going back 2,000 years or more, that the State determines what is money, and what its value is.

I don't think this theory is correct, but a lot of people in power (Establishment) still act as if they believed it, whether they actually do believe in it or not.

The suppression of the price of gold, is a practical expression of the theory. The price has been suppressed, because it has been deemed in the interest of the State, to suppress it. (Along with the lure of private gain via the gold carry-trade)

Today, the power of the State, through the Establishment, is vastly, incomparably greater than it has ever been in all of History.

In order for the gold to hit $30,000 Dls., you would have to have a situation where all the enormous power of TV, the press, the banks, the brokerages, the universities and their pointy-headed profs, the great corporations, etc., would have to be stymied. It is possible, but, I think, still a great ways off.

You would have to have a situation where PUBLIC OPINION has run away from the Establishment, where the herd has stampeded out of control. Knowing the very great power of the Estabishment to manipulate public opinion in the US, and that the Establishment has close ties with other Establishments in foreign countries, it is difficult for me to visualize a situation where a true, out-of-control stampede can take place.

The herd may be allowed to move to a certain point, to take pressure off: say a rise to $400. Then, the power of the opinion manipulators (there are think-tanks devoted to this manipulation, as a quasi-science) will focus on "taking profits", etc. and that sort of defusing of fear will prevent the stampede, for a long time, I would venture to say.

Saving in gold can be "demonized" as an activity of narcs, tax evaders, anti-Americans, even terrorists.

Somewhere down the line, the S will HTF, and the stampede will take place. An Argentina-like situation may take place. But, much as $30,000 gold is an attractive prospect for a gold holder, I am not sure we shall see it any time soon.
Note: I may have said the contrary on some other posts. What do other posters and lurkers have to say about the development of a gold stampede?

Note: the population of the US is by and large ignorant of the utility of gold as an asset. So how could the population stampede into gold, if it ignores gold? Why didn't the Argentinians stampede into gold last year, or the Mexicans in 1994/5? Because they don't think about gold.

Sierra

Aristotle (05/27/02; 16:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76694)
Belgian 76691
A tip o' the hat to ya!

Gold. Gettin' us some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle (05/27/02; 15:54:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 76693)
YGM, I liked your reply to timbervision about timing
As far as an understanding of Gold and the Gold market is concerned, I think it's safe to conclude, on the whole, the people gathered here at USAGOLD have developed a keen understanding of the fundamental workings and fatal flaws of our Gold market.

Those who have progressed the furthest in their understanding, especially with regard to this timing issue, are among the tall standing few who have forsaken the fanciful notions shared by other Goldbugs of leverage. We (the few) have come to know that paper may be folded many times in an effort to make a solid connection to real Gold, yet because it remains naught but paper itself, it cannot conduct/transfer Gold's specific benefits which matter most when paper (in ANY form of contract) is respected least.

Paper investment insturments that are commonly believed to provide opportunities to leverage the benefits of Gold are generally misunderstood by the novice Gold investor. They think that the primary benefit of Gold is something that is represented in its price, and therefore, if they can gain leveraged exposure to its price, they will somehow gain leveraged exposure to Gold's benefits. They will not.

What these novices fail to understand is very subtle, but very VERY important -- that the primary benefit of Physical Gold is not it's price, but rather its immunity to default. No matter how hot the winds may blow in a financial crisis, Gold remains an unalterable property that my be bought, sold, traded, or reacquired as desired or required by community or personal circumstances.

Regarding a "sudden and explosive revaluation" for Gold (based on items here previously discussed,) the hotshot novice Gold-leverage investors might privately or publically claim they don't have any worries about missing out on the timing issue. The lame reason they use to justify their confidence is that they are "Already in!!," meaning, they've established their positions in leveraged paper, and have every intention of riding it from here on out, or even adding to it (margin calls, etc) on any pull-back.

What a laugh!!!

Having missed the boat already by failing to grasp the primary concept (in which event their "paper" instruments may perform exactly like paper and nothing like Metal), their bold determination not to miss out on the timing of Gold's inevitable market-based moon-shot revluation will only guarantee that they'll be out of position to enjoy the singular benefits of Gold-in-hand.

Only after they watch their leveraged "paper gold" suffer widespread discredit and then withness a rejuvenated market in Physical trade will they understand how the old widespread pursuit of leveraged "price ownership" delivered an illusion, while at the same time to a few of us wise ol' men delivering lifetime opportunities for acquiring real Gold at extraordinary -- one might say "leveraged" -- discounts!

Gold. Get you some. Only the real thing will do. --- Aristotle

Mexican (05/27/02; 15:49:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76692)
Re. Graefin Msg. 76574:
Hola guapa,

Hedge Funds or managed futures funds have become a driving force in the gold market of the 1990's. In the bull market in gold of the 1970's they were still in their infancy, with perhaps $500 million among them.

By the 1990's they not only had at least $25 billion under management, but a huge range of derivatives to chose from, especially in the over-the-counter (OTC) market. The leverage value thus offered added to their importance. The funds trade many things in many markets world-wide, but the impact they can have on a single commodity or currency they may target is immense.

George Soros' Quantum Fund is often credited with stimulating the gold price rise from $330 to over $400 in 1993. Equally, the funds can build large short positions, thus dragging down the price, as happened in the gold price collapse of mid-1997. The rapid expansion of the OTC options market has been of particular help to the funds, because their operations are concealed, whereas on an exchange like COMEX, the size of their position would soon be transparent
(although that is not to stop them using the exchange precisely to create an effect).

And COMEX reflected the funds importance by removing its position limit of 6,000 contracts (600,000 ounces), enabling larger positions to be run at the discretion of the exchange. The funds are heavy users of options (hence the term managed future funds being rather dated) and their
decisions are technically driven by mathematical models, which are often programmed for multiple speed entry and exit from a particular commodity, currency or financial future.

Hope that helps!

And yes, I know, we know, that it's past your bedtime again.

Un abrazo muy fuerte!

MX

Belgian (05/27/02; 15:48:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 76691)
@ Timbervision
*Technical* price-targets for Gold can be suggested and some might even be correct intermediate tops or bottoms.
Gold has no final (fixed) price target on fundamental grounds. Its Constant Value has/is and will always be re-priced, according to the circumstances. Valuable water has also many different prices in time and space. That's inherent to everything that has eternal *value*.

When Gold's Value shall be reflected in its approximate price...all past perceptions on Gold derivatives (mine-shares included) will differ dramatically !
Free Gold means that the Value will be allowed to reach its correct pricing into the many thousands of dollars/euro.
Andy Smith, E. Welteke, Hashimoto, A.Greenspan, The WA, W.Duisenberg, C.Thompson, and many other officials plus institutions have commented on the price of Gold, strongly but discretely (cryptic) suggesting about its Value in so many different ways. The Gold statements are changing in tone and explicity !

Goldbugs AND advocates are not giving up and the endless stream of better insights is building on a broader and broader educational basis. That in itself is a very positive and evidence for Gold having everlasting Value, whatever the pricelevel or offer/demand equation.

Impossible to say if and how far the POG decline from 850$ > 253$ will be retraced orderly and mechanically (technical). That is a gamble, sorry, *THE* gamble that mine-speculators/holders (without the Physical) are taking deliberately. The Andy's out there are very aware about the growing state of mind of an increasing number of goldbugs, slowly evolving into Goldadvocates, thanks to the education provided here and elsewhere.

Once any kind of goldpaper has burned one's fingers...they have a tendency to appreciate the peacxe of mind that Physical in Possession provides under different scenarios of POG rise and decline. Papergold speculations have already showed some very nice performances during the cycles of the past 20 years. But there are not enough "old" yellers left to witness about the x25 bonanza of the Physical that happened during 1971>1980.
Even during the goldstandard, there were brutal price-adjustments for the precious Physical. It happened already multiple times in the past ! Why should POG stop at that lousy 600$ arbitrary figure ? Based on what ?
Gold with its x25 pricerise was a dotcom "avant la lettre" 20 years ago !!!

One day we will all admit and accept graciously that fiat is just confetti with only a practical purpose and no intrinsic Value or whatsoever ! When the DEBTBERG meets the exponential rising *demands* of the masses of more exhuberant lifestyles for less and less efforts !!!
You can't turn this infernal spiral around. 1971 > 1980 was the hyper-inflanionarry way of running ahead. The monetarist soon discoverd this was not going to work. Then we had the hyper-deflationarry way (zero interest rates) 1980 > 2000. And we start to realize "now" that this isn't either a solution to the mis-management of our financial system. So what option(s) are left ? Extend the ongoing as long as possible with the guarantee of severe implosion of the monetary system and the best ground for starting it all over again...THIS TIME WITH GOLD IMPOSING ITSELF AS THE ULTIMATE INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM AGAINST THE COLLECTIVITY !!!!

At a certain level well into the debacle...the Gold control/capping will be left alone, automatically. When ship capsizes, you stop pumping the water (Gold) and jump into the open sea (Free Gold). Many already jumped prematurely during the 1971>1980 watermaking. The (Gold) pumps did a miracle job and pumped us back floating. How many times can a rusty ship bump into a (debt)iceberg ?

Can you guess how fast it will sink (POG-rise) this time ?
Now you can't !

Those who made a killing with mine-speculation, should be wise and shift profits into Physical before the final outburst. A very, very small amount of good/reliable minepaper can be holded to speculate on a good outcome for that particular mine that will profit enormously from the coming extravagant Gold revaluation. It is a wise + logic + balanced pole position. Gold at the present ridiculous pricing, does make this decision the much easier. With POG at 600$, we have no clue on how the situation might look like. Imagine some kind of WA for the mining industry in the not too distant future !? Only to be anticipated by Physical in Possession. This message should be delivered to all paper holders, everywhere. All those nice people trusting that their Bonds (paper/derivative) will hold the Value they thought it was worth. The present very low interest rates on all those trillions of debt-paper are not compensating at all for their inherent risks !!! Unfortunately, very few have the capacity to come to terms with this destructive danger and blindly rely on the collectivity. What a terrible mistake ! Worse...who's going to tell them ? Andy just strongly re-assured these folks that everything is OK and that a POG of 68$ will guarantee their purchasing power ! Cynical isn't it ? A POG of 68$ is indicating that the US$ will regain its purchasing power of the 1971-ties ? The ever increasing debt has to be refunded with a much stronger dollar...and this into a contracting economy with profits shrinking like hell. Very nice picture, Andy ! Thanks again. Please come overhere and join posting.

Mexican (05/27/02; 15:33:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 76690)
$$$$298.5$$$$
Don't run in the opposite direction of the herd.

The frequency of insider sales and registrations for intended sales by gold mining executives has risen sharply over the past few weeks. Corporate announcements about new secondary share offerings have also suddenly risen.

Saludos!

MX

YGM (05/27/02; 15:22:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 76689)
Gold Derivatives Collapse......
http://www.google.ca/search?q=Gold+Derivatives+Collapse&ie=UTF8&oe=UTF8&hl=en&meta=
Today on Google search >>Gold Derivatives Collapse<<
you get 6300+ hits.....3-4 years ago you got nothing!

30 States join SEC Investigations...US Dollar Default talk...Gold Bull Market...Paper Gold Collapse Queries...
100 Million Dollar Fines...Hedgers Buybacks...GATA in Mainstream Press...Talk of Folding WGC...BOE Gold Sales Criticized in Parliament...Bullion Banks & Other Financial Institutions Solvency Questioned Due to Derivative Exposeure...US Treas. put NASDAQ at 900 in future...Nukes in C Asia...Times change rather quickly no?

YGM (05/27/02; 14:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 76688)
timbervision...
Can a "when sparks begin to fly" price of gold be accurately guessed?
In my estimation...NO!...We have all watched with grim disbelief the ability of the Cartels' War on Gold unfold and how they are always able to pull another rabbit from the hat...There are so many purposes served by this same 'War' that remain as of yet undisclosed, that who knows from where the next curve ball may come...Will CB's demand payment from Bullion Banks and Hedge Funds over Gold Loans/Leases at $354.00 p/oz or will they have more phoney Gold Sales such as the BOE did...Will the Cartel allow Gold to rise so far as to cause collapse of the Derivatives Markets? Not as long as they need them to funtion as they do in suppressing the real VOG!...BELIEVE THIS OF "FOA" IF YOU BELIEVE ANYTHING HE TOLD US...THE MOVE UPWARD IN GOLD WILL COME SO DRAMATICALLY AND UNEXPECTED THAT NOONE WILL BE PREPARED...(not exactly his words, but you get the meaning)

I feel that of all he (FOA) & Another tried to drum into our heads was to be Physical and not to wait/wade in PAPER, hoping to exit and catch physical before it got away in value...As he said it's a very dangerous game to play thinking you can catch a fast moving train. I doubt when Gold goes for that train ride no common man will get any purchase order filled, but oh how easy it will be to sell!

Consider this..Intuition has led many here to own physical Gold and then we came and rec'd varying degrees of education from here,(USA Gold) G-E Editorials, GATA, Howe, Murphy,(extensive)...Turk, Veneroso, Hamilton, my God the list is endless...Why worry about judging the fuse length or flash-point of Golds' launching, just own the real thing and relax while trying to make spare cash for more...

PS: I'm a perfect example of one who finds it extremely hard to take ones own advice in that last statement!

timbervision (05/27/02; 13:31:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 76687)
Belgian and YGM
In YGM's link to Jason Hommel #76677 he states "The coming default on gold futures contracts by the short sellers and large bullion banks will surprise many..." and "The point I am making in this article is that investors should avoid buying a gold futures contract, and avoid buying gold call options, because these investment vehicles are paper promises that are prone to default."

Towards the end of this same Gold-Eagle article Hommel lays out his recommendations, a 1:5 ratio of precious metal to precious metal stocks believing that stocks should be kept until gold reaches $600 to $1000 per ounce.

It seems to me that what he explains so well about the dangers of investing in gold futures (paper gold), applies to investing in mining companies, hedged or unhedged, at prices well below $600 per ounce. i.e. the gold in the ground of mining companies is as well prone to default.

Am I understanding this correctly? We hear figures of a short squeeze at the likes of JPM at $354 per ounce. Can a "when sparks begin to fly" price of gold be accurately guessed?

Belgian (05/27/02; 12:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76686)
The 30 years POG chart !?
A FWIW profound interpretation of that intriging Big Picture on the price of the Valuable Gold :
This is NOT the pattern of a dinosaur on its way to extinction ! The recent 20 yrs ATL of 253$ is still within the range of "vitality" for the precious. A very healthy down-limit after the parabolic spike of 10 years from 1971.
Compare this pattern with the dotcoms, wich passed away.
Their parabolic rise couldn't hold a proportionate phase of consolidation for eventual recovery . Gold (POG) has been "consolidating" during the past 20 years after the 10 years of initial parabolic spike. Even a low of 200$ would have validating this observation/interpretation.

Clown Andy with his 68$ out of the blue nonsense is saying as much as Gold being a *dinosaur* . Bad joke !

Once we agree on what this 30 year pattern is intrinsically saying...the future evolution of POG becomes much more plausible : A GIGANTIC rise as to complete (extend) the *natural* configuration of such a pattern (parabole+consolidation). The continuation will be a multiple of the 25x fold rise of 1971 > 1980 !

POG's ATH of 850$ hasn't decimated (85$). POG can't go bankrupt in contrast with any enterprise. To decimate POG is as much as saying that Gold is worthless for ever.
Again, take a look at everything that decimated . The chances for recovery are very slim indeed in these cases and are rather exceptional.

Get yourself a nicely magnified long term chart of Gold and ask an interpretation and projection of other specialized technical analysts. They don't have to know Gold's fundamentals.

It is against this background that TG's 30.000$ for POG are very, very realistic in my very humble opinion.
Dotcoms and even microsoft with no profits at all or dividents were able to go parabolic in no time when the confetti chase for those papers started and ended at maniacal hights. Than why should the very valuable and precious yellow be and remain an exception to this "natural" phenomenon ?

As lilliputans, all we can do is buy as much physical in possession as is possible and reasonable. This way we are doing our part in laying the fundamentals for that natural revaluation that is embedded in that Gold pattern for all to see. My only drugs are coffee and sigarets.

Old Yeller (05/27/02; 12:15:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 76685)
September 1,1981 article by one Alan Greenspan
http://www.capitalstool.com/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=8&topic=222

The subject;restoration of the gold standard for the currency of the world.The dilemma?

"Yet,even those of us who are attracted to the propect of gold convertability are confronted with a seemingly impossible obstacle:the latest claim to gold represented by the huge world overhang of fiat currency,many dollars."

Fast forward twenty-one years later,compare money supply and US dollar debt obligations(30 something trillion) to increased gold supply through the intervening years.Note the POG in September,1981-around $450 in 1981 dollars.

Something is seriously amiss in this equation,the equation which was formulated for the most parts by the author.Now,how did he manage to avoid this"impossible obstacle" and how many "associates" were involved?

Sierra Madre (05/27/02; 12:13:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 76684)
Cheap hydrogen generation...
I generally stick to the central subject of gold, but since others have expressed thoughts about fuel cells and hydrogen, I just want to throw out some info I happen to have:

A company by the name of Genoil has a proven process to refine heavy oil into light grades, that is much cheaper than any other process. It uses hydrogen to do this job. This process can become vitally important.

The company is also working on perfecting a very cheap way to produce hydrogen, which would make its refining process cheaper.

The cheap hydrogen could also further the possibility of widespread fuel cell use.

I have no interest in the company. Do your own due diligence.

Sierra

Jimbo (05/27/02; 11:45:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 76682)
Canuck: What me worried?!
Canuck, yes I'm worried, but not to the point of selling even one of my gold shares. I learned in the aftermath of the dot.com fiasco to be aware of any/all issues that might affect my investments. Of course, I failed at the dot.com game (thanks to a lousy adviser and my own ignorance). Now that I'm invested so heavily in gold stocks, I don't want to fail again. My investment buddies tell me all the time not be "fooling around" with gold. They know I'm a believer in Durban, and warn me that the S. African political environment could unravel at any time. I think they're wrong...at least, on a short-term basis (five years?). But I do know one thing that boosts my confidence: my portfolio is growing a lot faster than their's.

By the way, Black Blade, congratulations on your birthday! Many thanks to you, Canuck and all the others who provide so much useful information on a daily basis!

RobotGuy (05/27/02; 11:34:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 76681)
Mikal - - -The obvious secret of the fuel cell
I've done a little research on the functionality of the fuel cell, and there's one thing that a lot of people seem to overlook. Fuel cells operate on most types of combustible gasses including hydrocarbons. In order to achieve zero emissions however, we need to operate the fuel cell on hydrogen and oxygen, byproduct = water. The major problem with this scenario, is that it takes the same amount of energy to convert water into it's composing atoms (Hydrogen and Oxygen) as it returns when re-introduced. This energy must come from somewhere, and the inventing powers seem to think hydrocarbons are the only massive energy source that could match the world's energy demands as far as transportation is concerned. We could use nuclear reactors to separate the water, but then you have the problem of radioactive waste, one we are already overdue on a solution for.
The fuel cells are a wonderful idea, and quite an impressive concept, but I don't believe we will solve the world's energy problems as cleanly as we're anticipating.... Now cold fusion,.... there's a real charmer! If we could figure that one out, we'd all be living it up!!

mikal (5/27/02; 10:31:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 76680)
From USAGOLD Live News- A new energy paradigm slowly gains momentum
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

� Tuesday, May 28, 2002�
Project team proposes early implementation of fuel cells
A project team working to promote the development of fuel cell technology on Monday proposed that the deadline for easing and abolishing regulations related to the cells be moved forward to 2005 from 2020...
.....The cells are expected to enter a commercial stage in 2005, and a market for fuel cell products is expected to start expanding in 2010.....
....Fuel cells, which emit no carbon-dioxide, are expected to become a key energy source in the future.
The Japan Times: May 28, 2002......(click link for more)
Come now, we KNOW you can do better than that. Someday VERY soon, you'll have no choice. Visible energy progress is slated to be a political, social, and financial priority, after the "critical mass" of public opinion is reached.

R Powell (5/27/02; 10:31:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 76679)
The Victorian
I've a question regarding your conversation with the broker. Was the broker aware that some companies had heavily hedged their future production before you explained this fact?
I'd guess that most brokers understand the concept of hedging but not many would understand the unique situation of hedging through forward sales. Their idea of hedging is closer to the concept of buying the strongest companies in a sector while perhaps shorting the weaker ones. Even without implimenting this strategy, their nature impulse when confronted with a client that wants to buy in any particular sector (in this case gold producers), would be to buy the largest companies in the sector. The XAU is a weighted index with Barrick being the most influential.
Go(l)d bless the HUI or the so-called BUGS index, Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. I'm guessing that most stock brokers know as much about the gold/silver situation as I know of brain surgery. These people are little more than saleman with a little knowledge of current news slickly blended into the company's latest salespitch. One current pitch for your bedazzlement is "diversifying for uncertain times". Another is "asset allocation" inplying that they are trying harder to find the winners.
I'm curious as to whether I'm anywhere near right. Did the broker understand your objections to his/her picks?
Happy Holiday
Rich

YGM (5/27/02; 10:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76678)
More Than We Ever Wanted to Know....
http://www.americanfreedomnews.com/
About the potential Nuke exchange between Pakistan & India......An exercise in Madness!

YGM (5/27/02; 10:00:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76677)
Reasons to Own Gold & Silver Site by Jason Hommel
http://www.goldismoney.com/
Take note Goldhearts...He recommends/links our own host
"USA Gold" as a place to buy your "Physical Gold"......

Gandalf the White (5/27/02; 09:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 76676)
OOPS --- Laughing so hard, I can not type !
(Tounge in cheek.)
should be TONGUE !!
ROFL
<;-)

YGM (5/27/02; 09:39:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 76675)
COMING DEFAULTS........(FOA & ANOTHER ALSO PREDICT SAME)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/hommel052902.html
EXCERPT:

Impending Gold Futures Default

The coming default on gold futures contracts by the short sellers and large bullion banks will surprise many (because they don't know what it is and therefore cannot anticipate it), and will most likely act to catapult gold prices into 4, 5, or even 6 figures per ounce.

I have written this article for several audiences. First, for those people new to the gold market, who might be thinking about getting into gold somehow, but are not sure what to buy. Second, I'm writing to those already in the gold market, so that they know what's coming, and so that they don't sell out too soon.

Third, I'm writing for seasoned gold investors and/or a few very wealthy individuals who believe that gold futures contracts represent a sound investment vehicle. There are about 90 of these wealthy people according to Andy Smith, who was quoted in Thom Calandra's CBS Marketwatch report of May 24th, as saying, "Large-account speculators who are "long" gold futures on the COMEX in New York have surpassed 90 in number." (Up from 77.) These 90 people, or funds, or entities, desperately need to get this article into their hands. I don't know who they are, nor do I know how to contact them, but I hope that the publication of this article at gold-eagle.com will help to reach them. Readers, if you know anybody who might be one of these 90 large-account speculators, or if you know anybody who might know somebody who might be one of these 90, please forward this article to them.

If these wealthy people are convinced, and stop playing paper games, and start buying gold bullion instead, the price will really take off, and will cause the default on the futures contracts to happen that much sooner.

Cont'd...@ Link.

Gandalf the White (5/27/02; 09:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 76674)
The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

11 th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
===
<;-)

Gandalf the White (5/27/02; 09:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76673)
THANK YOU Sir Gold Standard !!!!
Would EVERYONE please take notice of an EXCELLENT posting of the "WHY?" segment of the POG "Guess". (The Hobbits LOVE it !)
This shows extensive planning and deep thought. (Tounge in cheek.) The Hobbits are still working on this one to try and duplicate the star plots.
<;-)
====
Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 76663)
@ Sir Gandalf
$$$$335.10$$$$
The June settlement will rest there because it is the exact line of the oft-maligned 3 day MA minor H&S candlestick reversal, coupled with Venus rising into Virgo just prior to sunrise this week. So there!

sector (5/27/02; 09:22:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 76672)
@BlackBlade Andy Smith's Blubbering
Mitsui went long...Andy looking at his shoes
In stark contrst to Sumitomo and Mitsubichi Mitsui went long on all TOCOM contract through October 2002,

Usually, S&M are 100% short all the time in all maturities...a fact alone that proves collusion [Probable underwriting by BOJ]. Mitsui is normally right there with them but with a little hedging.

In the last month however, Mitsui has gone long. The fair inference is that they aren't on the BOJ gravey train.

Another fair inference is that Mitsui is under water on their gold derivatives and that Andy Smith is doing a bad Ernst Weltke [Bundesbank] imitation...pretending that they haven't been hit by a runaway gold train.

Perhaps someone close will tell him that it REALLY IS ALL OVER.

Again the real problem for goldbugs is deciding how much to load onto the gold train.

YGM (5/27/02; 09:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76671)
Sierra.....
Sage words last nite...
""But, let us all enjoy life, enjoy living, and hope for the best. We have all done what we can, and more is not asked of any man.""......Sierra.

I myself am probably the only one with bitter tenor from time to time...and if so I humbly ask understanding......
.....I'm sure I must be irritating from time to time.....
Martin Armstrong, Goldman Sachs, Andy Smith, Gordon Browne, BOE, etc. All the Gold Bashers/Minipulators get under my now thin skin and have for years. I will probably never see again the amount of monies that the War on Gold has cost me.
Believe me it cost a marriage and early retirement and much more, so although I do try to remain/get mellow, I am an ex-YGM in Bankruptcy over Gold Mining...."Thanks for your calming words & influence"..This forum has been a salvation of sorts as has GATA..Hasta luego....YGM

RobotGuy (5/27/02; 08:46:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 76670)
Graefin - - - Re: Robotics
I am a programmer of those beasts you speak of. At my previous job I travelled extensively in the U.S. to various major motor corporations across the country. Kansas City Mo, Dallas, Indianappolis, Janesville Wisconsin, Atlanta Georgia, and the list goes on. I now work for a Windshield manufacturing facility. I have done my share of robotic maintenance as well. Your husband would probably recognise the names of several robots I've had the 'pleasure' of working with, Nachi, Kawasaki, Motoman, Fanuc, ABB, OTC, and there might be a few I've forgotten. It's a high paced environment with a lot of demand when you're good, unfortunately unless you work for a production environment it often involves extensive travel, and not much of a personal life. You can burn up a bunch of years really quickly, but if you're smart (not me) you can stash away some kick-ass coin.
Traditional work hours averaged 70-90 per week, lately I've been stuck on 40 with no travel, and it isn't such a bad thing. The imaginary recession disolved a big chunk of employment in this plant, but somehow strangely I'm still here.

Yes, I am what they call me - - - RobotGuy.

YGM (5/27/02; 08:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 76669)
Hmmmmm!...Now Where Else Do These Guys Ply Their Scams?
THE GOLD DERIVATIVE MARKETS!
A source familiar with the investigation identified the firms as Salomon, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS: Research, Estimates), the Credit Suisse First Boston division ofCredit Suisse AG (CSR: Research, Estimates), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH: Research, Estimates), Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. (MWD: Research, Estimates), Bear Stearns Cos. and the UBS PaineWebber division of UBS AG (UBS: Research, Estimates).

***Maybe from all this investigating the trail will lead to the Derivatives Markets.....Gold Scam!......We can only hope!!!!....YGM.

YGM (5/27/02; 08:36:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 76668)
30 STATES JOIN SECURITIES PROBE!
http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/24/news/companies/wallstreet_probe.ap/index.htm
EXCERPT:

30 states in probe

Probe of possible conflicts of interest at brokerage houses gets wider.
May 24, 2002: 6:57 AM EDT

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) - Securities regulators from 30 states have joined a task force investigating alleged conflicts of interest among stock analysts at Wall Street brokerages, an organization representing the regulators said.

The formation of the task force was announced a month ago after New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer revealed results of an investigation he said showed that Merrill Lynch & Co. analysts misled investors by promoting stocks they privately disparaged in e-mail messages.

Twelve states were initially involved in the task force's investigation into Merrill Lynch's major competitors, but more states followed suit in recent weeks, said Ashley Baker, a spokesman for the North American Securities Administrators Association.

"We're looking at this, I think, in a pretty simple way," Baker said Thursday. "Was there a fraud? Were people privately holding one opinion and publicly issuing another?"

For more info on financial stocks, click here

Spitzer and Merrill Lynch this week announced a settlement requiring the firm to pay a $100 million fine to be shared among New York, the other 49 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.

The deal also calls for Merrill Lynch to stop rewarding research analysts for helping to bring in lucrative investment banking fees for arranging mergers and new stock offerings.

Instead, analysts are to be paid solely for the quality of their stock research. Spitzer says the move should help prevent analysts from giving shares of some companies positive ratings to help win investment banking business from the same companies.

Merrill Lynch and Spitzer announced their settlement Tuesday, and the Salomon Smith Barney investment banking division of Citigroup (C: Research, Estimates) Inc. said Wednesday that it would adopt the terms of the settlement affecting analysts.

Baker could not immediately provide a list of the 30 states that that have joined the task force, though officials have previously said New York, New Jersey and California were leading the investigation.

The state regulators have split up the work of investigating individual brokerages, but Baker declined to provide details, including the names of the firms.

A source familiar with the investigation identified the firms as Salomon, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS: Research, Estimates), the Credit Suisse First Boston division ofCredit Suisse AG (CSR: Research, Estimates), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH: Research, Estimates), Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. (MWD: Research, Estimates), Bear Stearns Cos. and the UBS PaineWebber division of UBS AG (UBS: Research, Estimates).

Those firms were also issued subpoenas by Spitzer, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Merrill Lynch is no longer under investigation because the firm settled its case, the source said.

If the task force's investigation uncovers analyst conflict of interests at other brokerages, the association will encourage state regulators to adopt settlements similar to the one Spitzer reached with Merrill Lynch, Baker said.

slingshot (5/27/02; 07:48:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 76667)
Money foldings
Black Blade
Now this is scary. Looks like a building in the ST. Louis Archway. Not a bridge on a boat.
Slingshot

Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 76666)
(No Subject)
$$$$330.20$$$$$

Christian (5/27/02; 07:37:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 76665)
Commodity gold vs Credit creation gold
*****330.20***** I hope this to be the price the manipulators let the price rise to...--Central Banks sell physicall gold to other central banks via swaps. These swaps are used to reprice commodity gold into credit creation gold on the books. Credit creation gold is priced in the $9000 +or- area. Interest rates worldwide could turn negative to make the total global debt more bearable. Holding fiat dollars will be punished with decreasing value of fiat. -- Debt cannot repay debt in the aggregate. Only earnings can retire debt. The arrival of raw materials times price man debited, nature credited delivers earnings. A sound money system must be based on a commodity money, or at least use a commodity as backing for currency. It takes production times price to generate aggregate income for an economy. It is only a matter of time the U.S.Government is forced to reprice gold, and use the resulting increase in monetary reserves to establish a trade dollar backed by gold. The domestic dollar will be backed by real estate. Under the Doctrine of Parents Patriae, "Government As Parents" all assets of the American People, their persons (people themselves) are held by the Depository Trust Corporation, 55 Water Street, NY, NY., secured by UCC commercial liens, which are monetized as "debt money" by the Federal Reserve.

Spartacus (5/27/02; 06:39:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 76664)
Topaz

Topaz (5/27/02; 04:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 76652)
"Papergold is re-establishing itself as a Fiat Currency par excellance"

Yes Sir, Currently the gold market remains fundamentally the same, it is still dominated by paper trading. Hopefully the Eurosystem and its support for honest gold markets and valuation (free gold concept) will change the situation.

Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 76663)
@ Sir Gandalf
$$$$335.10$$$$

The June settlement will rest there because it is the exact line of the oft-maligned 3 day MA minor H&S candlestick reversal, coupled with Venus rising into Virgo just prior to sunrise this week. So there!

Belgian (5/27/02; 05:16:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 76662)
The Central Banks's dilemma !
*How* do the central banks have to admit the total failure of their money system ? Same problem for any husband or wife to tell that their love affair is over and have been unfaithfull for so long ! Painfull and inevitable reality.
Everyone knows that the imposture went on for decades and noone dared to expose it. That's the dilemma of today for CBs and Institutions in their diversity of interests (dollarblock/euro/others).
Only 2 questions remain : When and How do we tell them ?
The Andy Smiths are the ones who's job is to postpone the announcement on the "when" question. Gold Giants and ECB/BIS will give the answer on the "how" question.

Will you be waiting patiently for the answers on both question...without the Physical already in Possession ? Or do you really want to accumulate at this brandnew magic number of 68$ an ounce ? Good luck dear fellow poster.

Black Blade (5/27/02; 05:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 76661)
Re: Victorian

I wonder how much this broker thought about investor risk when the dot.coms, telecoms, and techs were bubbling? I don't give investment advice so I won't start now. Given the choice, a profitable non-hedger will even outperform a mega-hedger in a falling POG market. Consider that the non-hedger has already "been there" and had to work with very low cost reserves over the last few years to stay profitable. If they were profitable then (and even a few were spinning off high dividends), then they are likely to be even more profitable in a rising POG environment. Of course Gold shares are counter-cyclical and I for one would rather be exposed to a rising POG. If I was concerned about a falling POG - why would I even consider investing in a Gold miner then? Definitely study the markets and make an informed decision.

Anyway, it is good that you got your in-laws to start with a physical position first. It is always good to have a secure solid hard asset position for portfolio insurance before venturing into the more speculative stock investing waters. What ever happens I know that I have a good solid base of physical PMs to fall back on. I consider this my diversification into alternative "currencies". Consider that the US Dollar is weakening and the world is a less secure place these days. Cheers!

- Black Blade

For disclosure - I have Gold, Silver, and Platinum (bullion and numismatic coin), and shares of non-hedger Gold miners HGMCY, GG, and GFI.

Graefin (5/27/02; 04:45:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76660)
Black Blade
Are you sure that is ALL you want?

Graefin (5/27/02; 04:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76659)
Black Blade...
That's a tall order for a wish list!!!

Golden Bear (5/27/02; 04:44:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76658)
The Victorian (msg#: 76655) A PLAGUE ON ALL EXPERTS!
FYI, I just saw a report on CNBC Australia regarding Placer's offer for AurionGold. It stated that it would have little effect on the POG as Aurion had already stated that it was reducing its hedge book from 86%!! to "only" 60%.

Cheers.

Black Blade (5/27/02; 04:42:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76657)
Re: Graefin - Not Yet

It's not my birthday yet. I probably should have said "wish list", but then my caption would probably have been "OK, her too". Hmmm...

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade (5/27/02; 04:38:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 76656)
Conspiracy?
http://www.evenmo.com/money.html

I stumbled across this (at the link). Curious isn't it? I don't happen to have a twenty on me right now, but "interesting". Some people have way too much time on their hands ;-)

- Black Blade

The Victorian (5/27/02; 04:19:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 76655)
A PLAGUE ON ALL EXPERTS!
I recently convinced my in-laws to take a chance and buy some shares in a couple good mines. They already own some physical, purchased pre-Y2K. It has been an ongoing task to keep them from sellling it and putting the money into their constantly losing stock market "investments." (You could make a good living by shorting whatever they buy.)

My husband and I recommended HGMCY and BGO. I sent them off with instructions to buy one or both of these based on the fact that I have made wonderful gains on my self-directed IRAs recently which are in gold stocks. Later in the day they announced with pleasure that they had seen their stock broker and had indeed purchased some gold shares. What did they buy? Ashanti, Placer Dome, and a bit of MY recommendation - Bema. ARGH! I hit the ceiling. I have limited knowledge compared to most of you here, but I do know that I would NEVER tell anyone to buy shares of a hedged miner, certainly not of Ashanti, who I remember dimly had blown up their hedgebook once before. I would appreciate if anyone could briefly outline for me what had happened to Ashanti and how many years ago this took place.

After peeling me off the ceiling, listening to me patiently while I ranted about hedged mining companies, in which I predicted meager gains from those two companies, they called their stock broker and asked him if he knew what a hedged mine was. I ended up on the phone with him. Here is his logic, and I'd love to hear any of your comments on his theory: By selling them ASL and PDG he was moderating their risk from being in BGO. He believes that the hedged miners are safer and less volitile, so that if POG drops, the hedged COs will drop less than Bema. I rather doubt this would be the case, but I welcome your insights on this.

A half hour later the way we resolved this was that they decided to sell one of the two hedged miners and put that portion into BGO. I told them to dump ASL. Now, it looks like PDG is possibly making an aquistion which may help them. The timing certainly seems to support the case that they know it's not wise being heavily hedged in this rising POG environment. Perhaps they will do fairly well after all??? Should I continue to try to extricate them from PDG in coming weeks, or should I leave well enough alone?

As a point of interest, the broker said he has had an increasing number of people come to him, interested in gold. He has been recommending small positions for many of his more aggressive investors. It amuses me to hear brokers expound on how risky gold shares are when they are the only sector of the market making consistent gains.

A pleasant and safe holiday to one and all here :-)

Graefin (5/27/02; 04:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 76654)
Black Blade...
Could it be your birthday today???

Black Blade (5/27/02; 04:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 76653)
Gold nudges three-year high on war fears
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/asia-106898.html

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold surged close to its highest level in almost three years on Friday as investors piled into the safe-haven asset on Middle East violence, fears of an India-Pakistan war and a terror attack in the United States.

It tracks the spot market price which rallied to $323.60 an ounce in overnight trading in New York, crowning a 16 percent price gain since the start of this year. An investor favourite this year, gold is enjoying its first bull market in a generation and rose each of the last seven days on nervousness about war clouds over India and Pakistan and threats of further terrorist attacks on American targets.

With the dollar hitting year-lows against major currencies and jitters over the outlook for U.S. corporate profits, gold together with other traditional safe bets such as the Swiss franc has come back to the frontline of investment activity.

Indian and Pakistani forces again traded fire across a ceasefire line in disputed Kashmir, at the heart of their hostility, though fears of war eased just as an international peace push entered full swing.

Gold's rally has also been supported by a move by leading producers to cut back on the amount of gold they sell in forward markets to guarantee their income and instead be more exposed to rising spot prices.

Black Blade: The situation in central Asia is getting more tense during Pakistani missile tests, a build up of over 1 million troops along the border, Indian warships deployed off of coast, both nations air forces on alert and moved closer to the border region, artillery barrages across the border, etc. One minor misstep and then "mushrooms" will start sprouting.

Topaz (5/27/02; 04:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 76652)
Spartagus
G'day S,
I've been watching that for several Wk's too....my conclusion is a little different though.
If we consider the dollar as a derivative of the gross domestic product of the USA, (forgetting the "overhang" of it's reserve status)....and POG as a derivative of Bullion....we can comfortably state "Papergold is re-establishing itself as a Fiat Currency par excellance"

Black Blade (5/27/02; 04:02:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 76651)
My Birthday Present
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/i-asia-106898.html

Click on the link and see my birthday present - No not her! What she's holding.

- Black Blade

OZ (5/27/02; 03:42:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 76650)
Blacl Blade
BIG ERROR
either HE not you. ha ha
I know you know better and I had made a boo boo trying to post to quick

OZ (5/27/02; 03:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 76649)
Black Blade re.Andy Smith
Black Blade
You made me laugh with your title Andy on drugs?
Either that or you don't know nyet. One day gold going to 355 and now this 68$.
Buy gold and silver and the unhedged shares

Black Blade (5/27/02; 03:22:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 76648)
Re: Topaz - Dandy Andy

Don't get me wrong here, I look at Dandy Andy as more of a caricature of the typical "Gold Analyst" than anything else. For me this is all just "cheap" entertainment. Stupid people like dandy Andy make good targets for such ridicule. It is a sad commentary on the twentieth century education system though. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Spartacus (5/27/02; 03:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 76647)
It's a gold rush, but not yet for the Swiss
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1093587-6094-0,00.html

AMAZING. Gold is a currency again. The narrow debate about whether gold had lost one of its main qualities that of being a reserve currency has now disappeared in gold's strong rise in the past months. This goes to show how fickle intellectual arguments can be in the face of the power of the markets. An oblique view of the re-establishment of gold as a reserve currency can be observed by comparing the dollar gold price with the gold price in Swiss francs.
----
As the graph suggests, gold did rise in Swiss franc terms at the start of the year, but from then it has been trading in a very narrow range.

And since April, while gold was seemingly rising against all comers, gold in fact declined against the Swiss franc.

The same trend is noticeable, just to a lesser degree, when comparing the dollar gold price with the euro.

What has been happening is that in Swiss franc terms, gold has been stable because the decline in the dollar price has been counterbalanced by the rise in the gold price. Hence, the rather flat profile of gold, even though it has seemingly been rising in the currency in which it is normally priced.

But for a real bull market to develop in gold, it ought to be rising against all currencies. And interestingly, this is what seems to have developed, but only very recently.

Up till then, gold was acting as a form of currency hedge. Hence it was not performing very well against the Swiss franc which, among the range of currencies, is traditionally the most defensive domain because of the Swiss franc's historical stability and the overall strength of the Swiss economy.

Currency speculators have, therefore, sought to defend themselves against dollar weakness by moving into the Swiss franc, which has strengthened recently against the dollar faster than gold has risen.

Now it seems that returns on gold are being measured against returns on all other currencies available. Gold has, in this sense, again become a form of currency.

Black Blade (5/27/02; 03:15:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 76646)
It's a gold rush, but not yet for the Swiss
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1093587-6094-0,00.html

Snippit:

AMAZING. Gold is a currency again. The narrow debate about whether gold had lost one of its main qualities that of being a reserve currency has now disappeared in gold's strong rise in the past months. This goes to show how fickle intellectual arguments can be in the face of the power of the markets.

Black Blade: Not news here that Gold is a currency, however, what is interesting is that people who should know better are only now making this "discovery".

Topaz (5/27/02; 03:14:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76645)
The Chocolate Standard.
Of course the most beneficial aspect of the above would be the effortless detection of those engaged in coin clipping....they'd be the Fatso's with Pimples ;-)

Topaz (5/27/02; 03:01:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 76644)
BB, Belgian
That Andy gets on your goat eh? Is he just the reincarnation of that other doyen in shorts, one Marty Armstrong who, despite continually poo-pooing the precious, was (reportedly) found to have stashed away several thousand Oz's of Bullion?....and on the WGC site I noticed China holding 500T Au @ 2.5% reserves. Now thats a lot of Bullion.....BUT also "a helluva LOT of FIAT!!"

Belgian (5/27/02; 02:53:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76643)
More fun....when combining all sorts of Gold Analyses
South African mines will be confiscated/nationalized, because POG's real value is 68$ per ounce. For this reason, more and more mines do stop and reverse all hedging and refuse to collect any further profits from the predicted POG decline (320$ >>> 68$). Isn't worth it.
Russia and China announce more official Gold accumulation for later exchange against chocolate-monetary reserve.
ECB marks its Goldreserves to market, quarterly as to service (inform) chocolate producers on future price levels.
Andy Smith has been hired to preside the next Chocalate Agreement to be signed in Washington. Choco(mit)sui will transform into a cacoa trading company before confiscation of all cacoa plantations.

Interest rates, worldwide will turn negative (minus 10) as to make the Total Global Debt of 300% world GDP, a bit more bearable. Holding confetti will be punished with a decrease of 10% per year as to encourage chocalate holdings.

Once the old WA expires in 2004, Gold will be set free for central banks to lease and sell obsolete Goldreserves and be able to finally take their massive profits at the price between 150$ and 68$. They are massively shorting the barbaric, after all, aren't they ? Cacao producers will be forced to accept Physical Gold for their product as only possible settlement.

Don't tell us, you haven't been warned in advance ! Miningweb, soon to be renamed, Plantationweb. Go Andy, go !

Central Banks are hiring a few more Gold Authorities to promote the transition from Gold to chocolate and to manipulate/manage POG at more reasonable prices (68$-target) to facilitate the transition. Call IMF/ECB/BIS. Thanks.

Spartacus (5/27/02; 02:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 76642)
Japan April Retail Sales Fall 0.8%, Stunting Recovery
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies&middle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APPG2PRU0SmFwYW4g

Tokyo, May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese retail sales declined in April, led by cars and clothing, signaling the increase in consumer spending that probably helped the economy return to growth last quarter is already petering out.

Sales dropped 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, last month from March, as auto sales dropped 5.6 percent, government figures showed. Retail sales have fallen the past three months after rising 2.7 percent in January. From a year ago, retail sales fell 4.1 percent.
------
The drop in spending is the latest evidence Japan's reliance on exports for growth may not be enough to pull the economy from its third recession in a decade.

Black Blade (5/27/02; 02:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76641)
Alleged Gold Expert Andy (on Drugs?)

I find it amusing that this charlatan who claims to be on the inside of the Gold business, completely missed this rally only to jump on the bandwagon after the fact. Then he made a prediction of somewhere about $350/oz. Previously he made a prediction that Gold would fall to about $50/oz. Now he is predicting $68/oz?

This is quite funny actually. I suppose from day to day he just wets his finger � points it in the air, and determines which way the wind is blowing at the moment. It wouldn't be so pathetic, except that his reasoning is usually quite faulty. Much of the time it is the usual pathetic excuse such as "the Central Banks might sell". Yeah, so what? They only sell to each other. The World Gold Council has determined that there are 32,000 tons of official Gold in the world's central banks vaults. That is nearly identical to the amount 20 years ago. Yet we hear cries that the central banks have been very big sellers of Gold.

One can sense the anger in Andy as he demands that the central banks "tear up" the Washington Agreement. Perhaps Mitsui is in deep trouble (again). This time with Gold. Now that the POG has surpassed $320/oz., he has suddenly become quite agitated. He is squirming like a worm on a hook.

We have seen how the Mega-Hedgers have become anxious as the fundamentals for Gold have turned positive. They are merging and acquiring smaller operators in a desperate bid to feed their onerous hedge books. Where have we seen this before? Can you say Cambior and Ashanti? I knew you could. Is it any wonder that the Non-Hedgers shares have dramatically outperformed the Mega-Hedgers? Is it any wonder that the central bankers and charlatans like Andy and his masters are worried? Just check out the rising number and intensity of the articles that quote and reference poor little Andy. I am really enjoying this.

- Black Blade

Belgian (5/27/02; 01:32:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 76640)
Andy Smith....At your service.....
This particular clown, made my day ! The archi prototype of a very "usefull" Broehaha fool, at the service of a very specific master. What an outstanding contra-indicator, and yes indeed Sir Rich...a very laughable (amusement only) one. Genuine 100% nonsense.
But Andy is in the know of a top secret inside information : A lone alchemist has finally found the magic formula to produce synthetic Gold from dust ! Formula, soon available on the net for amateur producers (no patents pending). Swiss and Belgian governments decided on storing "pure-chocolate" as to replace Gold as monetary asset and reserve. The *Goldfinger* movie has been banned and all copies taken out of circulation. Filed in Top Secret.

Allow me to put it this way : 253$ POG was a 25 years ATL.
The present, incredibable small, pricerise of 20%, provokes idiotic ultra-negative statements by Gold-Authorities with *koelie* status !? Now, I'm looking forward to Andy's next statement. It just feels so good when the deafening silence, surrounding Gold, can't be maintained anymore !
325$ MUST be already a VERY painfull pricelevel ...oh, sorry...an excellent salesprice for central bankers, who still stand ready to lease Gold, should the price rise...WHOEAAAHAAAAAA ! What a comedy ! Thanks Andy and please never leave us.

Charly Chaplinman was informed by Nelson Mandela, personally, that GFI was qouted on NYSE with only one purpose : TO CONFISCATE AMERICAN INVESTORS SAVINGS !
South African goldminers decided unilateral that their productivity will strongly increase when all mines are nationalized and POG goes down to a more acceptable level of 68$ per ounce ! Yes, the African Gods went crazy.

Dear forumers, isn't it great fun to have all these Gold Authorities around us to keep the debate going when we've run out of jokes ?

PS : During Bush Euroland / Russia tour...the word "war" was used 144 times during public speeches. What a wonderfull world...ohhhh yeahhhhh (L. Armstrong).

Black Blade (5/27/02; 00:58:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 76639)
Mining analyst water cooler chatter
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BC200687A2F?OpenDocument

Snippit:

LONDON -- As is now customary, Miningweb presents the good, bad and ugly during the Association of Mining Analysts conference held in London on Thursday, 23 May.
"The ownership of gold has suddenly become respectable." Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives and former chief economist at Robert Fleming.

"This is a miner-led rally rather than by investors". Andy Smith, Mitsui Metals precious metals analyst, commenting on gold producers reducing their hedge books.

"The best thing they (the central banks) can do is tear up the Washington Agreement and get on with life." Andy Smith.

Amid laughter: "No!" Andy Smith's one-word response to James Turk of GoldMoney on whether there's even the slightest possibility the gold price could have been rigged because government has altered its price in the past.

Black Blade: It appears that Mitsui could be in serious trouble on the "short" side of Gold. Andy must have received his marching orders and is now on the front lines to defend the Mitsui position from a frontal assault of a rising POG.

The rally is due to increased demand illustrated by the buying frenzy in Japan, a boom of Gold buying in Germany, etc. Also, there is a reduction in new mine supply and a definite shortage in Gold supply going forward. And yes, there is a serious reduction in forward selling too � and that must chap some Mitsui hide.

Tear up the WA? I do agree it would be good to liberate Gold to the people, however, Central Banks sales are only from one CB to another or occasionally to another member of "the club". Proof is in the WGC data showing that official reserves haven't declined in over 20 years! With all that alleged selling I find that very strange.

Why do you think there was laughter when Andy was asked that question? Everyone knew his ridiculous answer. Government intervention was employed in the past with Gold sales in attempts to cap the price and defend the US dollar. One notorious episode was when during the Johnson administration Gold was sold to head off the French raid on Fort Knox with repatriated US Dollars. It was a disaster. Even today no one knows how much official US Gold really exists. Has it happened again and again? Who knows, as George Santayana said: "Those who do not remember the past and condemned to repeat it".

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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