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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/27/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(2/27/02; 23:48:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 70881)
@Christian - Financial slavery, like physical slavery should be abolished.........
Who said Physical Slavery as been abolished? This is a very profitable business and hence it continues. Okay, you may not see them in ball & chain, but it literally continues to thrive. In other places, it as been re-badged. I think they now refer to it as "Independence"
Waverider
(2/27/02; 23:16:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 70880)
U.S. says Venezuela military ponders coup
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/134411652_venezuela27.html
Snippit:
"Signs of military discontent against Venezuela's controversial leader grew yesterday when a Bush administration official said military officers have sounded out American diplomats about U.S. reaction to a possible coup attempt against President Hugo Chavez.
Chavez recently alienated many in his political base — the poor and working class — by slashing the budget by 22 percent and floating the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, in a bid to boost imports and lure back foreign investors who have fled his reforms.
The 23 percent drop this month in the bolivar's value has increased prices so sharply that economists predict 30 to 40 percent inflation this year.
Many in the armed forces in particular resent Chavez's distancing of Venezuela from traditional allies such as the United States, and his political ties with Cuba and leftist Colombian rebels."
Waverider: Today Moody's cut the country's ratings outlook from stable to negative and thousands demonstrated calling for Chavez to resign. It appears that a coup may be inevitable.
Galearis
(2/27/02; 22:26:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 70879)
@ Rich vs Anduril on Gold and Silver
There really is no point in discussing this....
The end of a commodity, especially one that is a precious metal, surely has only one destination: obscurity.
It's obvious, isn't it?
5000 years of history saw it as a monetary asset where whole continents were explored for it, whole civilizations built on it and whole civilizations destroyed for it, saw it hoarded as the toil-savings of most of the world's population, saw it in early real currencies, saw it worn as cherished jewellry, saw it honoured in religious artifacts, saw it used as vital components of the echnological/information age and in medicine; all this rich history of human effort and greed has seen this nobel precious metal reduced from billions of ounces in fifty years to a palltry five hundred million ounces remaining today. All surely to be written off as a quaint footnote in human history.
The world will sigh and say: "Well, it isn't with us anymore, and if we can't buy it anymore, it isn't worth anything. So let's just ignore it and go live in a cave."
(smile)
Things are never exactly as they were before and history repeating is partly a myth. What is coming has never happened before, and that is why this time will be different. Really different. There has always been gold and much more silver and for the first time ever, there is gold and almost no silver. Think on THAT!
Best regards,
G.
Waverider
(2/27/02; 21:54:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 70878)
Plunge Protection may Plunge the Economy into the Loo
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/willettalway030102.html
Snippit:
"When considering that earlier in February Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokaw confirmed Japan's newly formed 'stock buying body' would intervene (buy stocks) when needed, 'suspicion' hardly seems like the most appropriate word. Moreover, when considering that the Japanese 'SBB' officially started operations on Friday February 22 with 4 Trillion Yen at their disposal ($15.15 billion in 02, and 03) it would appear that further mention of 'suspect' trades will no longer be the course de jour. Rather, the fact is that Japanese officials are aiming to legitimize their newly formed organization of plunge protectors."
Waverider: A great article examining the merits of the Japanese PPT, including analogies with the American counterpart. To plunge or not to plunge...timing the plunge...and...[I love this]...the honesty of a plunge! Cheers,
Waverider
Chris Powell
(2/27/02; 20:56:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 70877)
Details on the Paul-Greenspan exchange
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1026
Details on the exchange today between U.S. Rep.
Ron Paul and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
before the House Financial Services Committee:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1026
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
slingshot
(2/27/02; 20:42:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 70876)
TownCrier Msg# 70874
Greenspan to Dr. Goebels.
Hey Joe, I think we have a leak in our security.
Slingshot
Black Blade
(2/27/02; 20:34:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 70875)
Asia - A Tale of Two Markets
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Hang Seng is diving hard and fast tonight losing over 200 points. Meanwhile the Nikkei charges higher over 200 points. The rules effectively banning short selling seems to have a continuing effect of pushing prices higher. The question is what happens when this liquidity is used up? The problem of insolvent Japanese banks remains. "Interesting Times"
- Black Blade
TownCrier
(2/27/02; 20:22:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 70874)
"Now I'm not going to say what is in the media. The media is a very significantly controlled operation." -- A.Greenspan, Feb. 27 2002
Rich, thanks for the "Thanks".
I'm sure you'll join others around here in getting a kick out of this comment to come from today's testimony (he was responding to Vermont's Rep. Bernard Sanders). In fact, I can picture a bunch of folks joining MK at the RoundTable who are able to give this comment a smile and a knowing nod. Not only have we discussed it before, but if my recollection is correct, we've even sponsored a contest about this subject -- the media.
R.
Black Blade
(2/27/02; 20:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 70873)
DEAF, DUMB, & BLIND
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
Snippit:
Wall Street analysts today told a Senate panel they maintained "buy" rating on Enron Corp. as it slid toward bankruptcy because the company misled them. Their strong buy rating had nothing to do with lucrative investment banking relationships their firms had with Enron. Senators remained skeptical that analysts could separate investment banking relationships from objective analysis. In other words, if we are to believe the analysts, they were operating deaf, dumb, and blind. That is a scary thought. Only one analyst issued a sell recommendation on Enron and it cost him his job. One Senator, a former stock broker, said that if the analysts expect the Senators to believe their story, they were in effect asking for the government to intercede. Another Senator, also in the business said, "I was in your business, some of the things you are telling us are very difficult to believe. I find it very difficult to accept, that you can have information in you mind and put up a wall." Eleven out of 16 analysts rated Enron as a buy or strong buy as late as November 8th. Congress is now looking into conflicts of interest and complaints that Wall Street firms misled investors in making rosy projections during the IPO boom of the late 90's
Black Blade: A good synopsis of the testimony on Capital Hill. I guess the question is - are these analysts deceptive crooks or are they just inept bumpkins? I see no other explaination. I see a lot of angry investor lawsuits in their future and in the future for many related investment companies.
goldquest
(2/27/02; 20:16:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 70872)
TownCrier
My thanks also for the Ron Paul, Greenspan Q&A session.
Greenspan: "...what it is that we are doing is that the currency is granted value by fiat of the sovereign..."
Sovereign: 1, one having supreme power; a monarch. 2a Brit. gold coin worth one pound.
Once again, Greenspan talks in riddles!
darkhorse
(2/27/02; 20:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 70871)
@slingshot
That got a :) at the end of the third Monday this week!
slingshot
(2/27/02; 20:11:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70870)
Oxen to Gold Ratio
Rumor has it.
That the Gold to Oxen Ratio is the same as the Silver Ratio to Gold.
If you buy a working team.
Slingshot
darkhorse
(2/27/02; 20:11:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 70869)
@Christian
I understand what you're trying to say, and I agree to a point. But let's put your point into perspective, shall we? First of all, TPTB that are doing what you're describing have the education, knowledge, etc to do such things; sorta like the requirements of proving guilt of a crime...means, motive and opportunity. We Joe Six-packs lack at least two of them; we all have the motive...nobody wants to be beholden to anybody. You're comparing apples to oranges. If we KNEW exactly what they were up to, do you really believe nothing would be done to prevent it? If we had the MEANS to stop it from happening, do you really believe we wouldn't? If we had the OPPORTUNITY to stop/slow them down (GATA?!) do you think we wouldn't at least try? I've been severely disappointed by "the masses" here in the US; they put somebody into the most powerful office in the world that has no morals, no honor and nothing but contempt for the people he was to be serving. But to insult EVERYbody, just because it's become popular among the lemmings...uh, sheeple...uh, masses to let other people do your thinking for you, is wrong. I believe there's a significant portion of that WE you talk about that would try (and is trying) to stop TPTB in their tracks. Evidence these days suggests that just may be happening, whether it's totally or even just in part because of WE Joe Six-packs. My cynical side argues we have gotten ourselves into this, that's how I understand what you're conveying in your post. But the eternal optimist side says God is still in control, still on our side and WE will still come out on top. Here's to praying for the best and preparing for the worst!
R Powell
(2/27/02; 19:56:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 70868)
TownCrier
Thanks for finding that!
I find it noteworthy that Mr. Greenspan holds his lofty and powerful position while freely admitting that the success of a fiat currency is (in his opinion) still in doubt. I admire his honesty in so stating. Perhaps he would reply that he is just stating the obvious. Surely he must know that obvious to him is obtuse to much of the population. He states that the survival of fiat is still in doubt when he knows the mainstay of fiat is confidence.
Does anyone know, offhand, the current gold to oxen ratio?
Thanks again. You beat Chris to it!
Rich
G$
(2/27/02; 19:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 70867)
Full Moon
The Dow forms a doji star on the daily chart and the Nasdaq forms a bearish engulfing pattern...both indicate indecision and are good signs of reversals. Coincidence that tonight is the brightest full moon of the year??? We'll find out tomorrow.
G$
Christian
(2/27/02; 19:38:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 70866)
We've all been had!!!!!
Credit creation through financial engineering. Credit creation gold trades seperate from commodity gold. Prominent wall street firms, news columnists, central bankers and others talk about gold as a dead relic of the past and a stupid investment in these modern times. There is a reason for it. Gold currency limits money creation by banks which in turn limits bank profits. Gold currency would limit the FED in credit creation. Money creation is extraordinarly profitable. That is why they use credit creation gold priced at $9,000. They want it for themselves. Why share a good thing. Same goes with silver. Greenspan and company is paying China $18.00 worth of fiat for every ounce of silver China is willing to sell in order to keep our price of silver down. Same goes with gold. We the people are so stupid that we hope to profit on the price move up when we should be creating our own credit instead of sucking up to the bank for a bank loan. All the central bankers are doing is selling the gold to each other for credit creation. We the people should be doing that ourselves. Just how stupid can a hope to be homeowner be to borrow a $100,000 from a bank and pay 7% interest, only to have that loan bundled into a bond and sold to the FED at a cost to them of $250.00. We the people are so stupid, we deserve to be taken. Financial slavery, like physical slavery should be abolished.........
TownCrier
(02/27/02; 19:28:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70865)
Especially for our Ron Paul watchers:
Here is the Federal Document Clearing Service transcription from the question-and-answer session following Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony today (a remnant of Humphry-Hawkins) to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee.
-----------------
REP. RON PAUL (R-TEXAS): Welcome, Chairman Greenspan. I want to start by referring to a speech you gave on January at the American Numismatic Society, where you spoke profoundly about monetary policy, where you expressed that central bankers have had this relative success over the past decades, and it raises hopes that the fiat monetary system can be managed in a responsible way. So I think you're still at that point of hoping that this system will work. I maintain that the jury is still out on whether fiat money will work on the long term.
And then you foiled it up by saying, in case it didn't work -- and I don't know whether you had tongue in cheek or not about this, but you said that we might have to go back to seashells and oxen as our medium of exchange. And then you reassured everybody that the open discount window would have an adequate supply of oxen.
Chairman Oxley, if we get this point, which I suspect we will some day, I ask you that we have hearings to debate the issue of what medium of exchange that we have before the Fed starts using oxen as a medium of exchange.
HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTE CHAIRMAN OXLEY: Are you referring to the chairman here?
PAUL: Yes. I hope that you will at least consider that. But I think it is an important point, and I relate that to the Enron issue, because in many ways I think the system that you have been asked to manage it's similar to being asked to manage an Enron system. Because Congress is notoriously in favor of deficit spending; we are currently expanding the national debt at $250 billion a year and we have nearly a $6 trillion debt.
Now, we create that debt by buying votes. We spend a lot of money.
Now, the Federal Reserve comes in and they buy that debt in order to maintain the interest rate that they think is the right interest rate, and they take that and use it as an asset. You put it in the bank, you call this debt that we created as an asset, and you use it as collateral for our Federal Reserve notes.
So that's a pretty good scheme. And I think in the moral terms, as well as the economic terms, it's very similar to what the Enron - how Enron operates.
I'm not convinced this system works very well, because a lot of people here praise you for the adequate amount of liquidity -- and that's what inflation is: create more money, lower interest rate. Every time you ask for liquidity, every time you ask for lower interest rates, you're asking for inflation of the money supply.
And I think what we fail to do is every ask about the cost. Do we ever concern ourselves about the people who have had two-thirds of their income removed because they happened to be savers and living off interest, we gouge them with inflation, the loss of purchasing power, as well as taxing that, and yet a lot of people in this country have suffered from that particularly system?
Now, the analogy I would like to draw is something you said in your testimony on page 13, and you have mentioned several times now that Enron may be a good lesson. And I think it is. And I'm not for more of this regulation by SEC. I think you're correct that derivatives provide a market tool that is worthwhile.
But you said, "The Enron decline is an effective illustration of the vulnerability of a firm whose market value largely rests on capitalized reputation, with very little, if no, physical assets." That's exactly what our monetary system is all about, and that's what I believe the dollar is vulnerable.
We in Congress do not have a responsibly to run Enron. Some other government has a responsibility to deal with fraud. We have a responsibility to the dollar. And I think that's what we fail so often to address around here.
And you said that, "Enron provides encouragement that the force of market discipline can be counted on over time to foster a much greater transparency." That's exactly what the market does with money. If you look at the rapid and the sudden devaluations of the fiat currencies around the world, if you look at what happened to us in '79 and '80, that was the market coming in and forcing vulnerability and transparency on us.
Now, gold gives you a hint as to what's happening. Gold has sent a mild message in this past year, in spite of the fact that central banks and others continually sell and loan out gold and pushing the price of gold down. But there is a message there. So I would ask you, can you see any corollary whatsoever on what you're asked to do in running our monetary system to that which Enron was involved in?
FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN ALAN GREENSPAN: I hope there are fundamental differences. I mean, there are -- first, dealing with essentially a fiat currency, what it is that we are doing is that the currency is granted value by fiat of the sovereign, as it is said in the textbooks. The issue there is that, in years past, there's been considerable evidence that fiat currencies have been mismanaged in general and that inflation has been too often the result.
What I was mentioning in the speech that you were referring to is the fact that there is some evidence that we're learning that lesson, learning how to manage a fiat currency. I've always had some considerable skepticism about whether that in the long run can succeed, but I must say to you, the evidence of recent decades is that it has been succeeding. Whether that continues is a forecast which I can't really project on.
The Enron situation is essentially one in which there was an endeavor to imply that earnings were much greater than they really, that increasing debt was hidden.
I think of no reason to have done what they did with their off-balance-sheet transactions other than to obscure the extent of the debt they had. And what essentially was squandered in that process was the reputational capital which they had succeeded in achieving over a period of time.
And I don't perceive that anything that we are doing as a central bank involves anything related to that. I hope that where we need to be transparent and indicate what we are doing, we do so, and we so except in those areas where it, as I mentioned to you previously, inhibits the ability to actually function as a central bank. But as I say in summary, I hope your analogy is inappropriate.
R Powell
(02/27/02; 19:26:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 70864)
Invisible Hand
There are many here who are better qualified than I to answer the question but, I believe, earnings are associated with the total number of outstanding shares. I think this as earnings are presented as dollars and cents per share.
Profit brings to mind that number left after all monies spent doing business are subtracted from all monies earned doing business during a specific time period. I guess profit divided by outstanding shares might equal earnings per share. Profit is that number you inflate when reporting to shareholders and that number you deflate when reporting to the Internal Revenue Service.
In regards to the POG quessing contest, we was robbed!
Rich
mikal
(02/27/02; 19:20:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 70863)
Re: Job performance
If we have a world where a high degree of personal responsibility is reflected in the quality of public performance in delivery of quality goods and services, then there should be far less need for regulations, lawyers, and lawsuits. Financial services that include advice are provided under conditions of risk, known to us, but intentionally hidden and/or unknown by "professionals".
R Powell
(02/27/02; 18:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 70862)
Black Blade
Complicit in fraud or simply inept?
Your opinion favors the complicit in fraud. Concerning these Wall St. analysts, some of them, yes! But, for many of them, perhaps you have overestimated their competence.
Stated another way, when Abbey Cohen speaks, does she believe her own words or does she believe otherwise. As far as "duped" goes, does Gabby Abbey have any real personal opinion as to where the market index numbers will be at any time in the future? Whatever, her stage presence and presentation are the reasons she appears in front of the camera, no?
Some complicit, some inept, some knowingly duped, some unknowingly duped and some didn't care and never will!
I'm glad we do.
Rich
R Powell
(02/27/02; 18:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 70861)
Anduril
Gold and Silver
From Anduril's 70809,
"Know now and know surely that harsh words previously offered were for hard heads alone; the softness of a silvery metal does not warrant such keen emotion that you would here have it recieve."
Rich: Study and research should not be tainted with preconceived conclusions and I must remember to remain objective in evaluating all information. Having in my possession some silver coins has created a fondness for the softness of the silvery.
"Would you have any rational man pause in his day to love (or hate) a rock for being as nature devised?"
Rich: No, but I would ask the rational man to be aware of the rock and aware of its nature devised characteristics.
"And yet also, a fool is he that looks at silver, seeing silver only."
Rich: Myself, I see the economic opportunity of a vastly underpriced asset.
Concerning again, the silver to gold ratio which you mention has fallen from 12:1 to 60:1, I'll reply again that I don't find this extremely important among the long list of fundamental facts that have led me to conclude that silver is now grossly underpriced. The issue of the value ratio of gold to silver is in no way relevant to the future fiat evaluation of silver. What is IMHO important are the laws of supply and demand, the health of the local and world economies, and the psychology of investors (flow of money).
"Against gold, silver will not reclaim the high ground it once knew."
Rich: I'm not looking for or advocating any advance against gold. I don't see the two in any kind of competition. I consider both money and both precious metals but not as adversaries other than perhaps as to which might firstdouble or triple in price. Against gold, no! But against fiat both gold and silver will reclaim the high ground. Federal fiat subject to failure is the common adversary. I'm hoping to see the fiat devalue against both silver and gold. I do not wish for a paper monetary crisis, I just hope to see honest money which requires control and restraint with value set against a real standard, one beyond the government's control to alter at will.
Anduril, that I love silver as a hand held metal and an important economic opportunity is obvious. This does not mean that I don't like gold!
Rich
The Invisible Hand
(02/27/02; 17:42:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 70860)
Earnings & Profit
Do these two words mean the same thing?
Black Blade
(02/27/02; 17:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 70859)
Analyst Testimony Before Congress
I have been looking over some of the testimony in congress where some Wall Street analysts made the claim "we weren't provided adequate information". That of course is an outright lie. Simply put, it was easy to see what was happening at Enron. These analysts are either complicit in the Enron fraud or are simply inept and therefore have no place being employed on Wall Street as corporate analysts.
It does not require that one be a rocket scientist to see that at its peak Enron traded at 267 times earnings! That cash flow was negative! That top management was selling out shares en masse! That the earnings picture was somewhat opaque (to put it mildly).
The first rule of investing is if a company won't come clean with good hard numbers - then run! Run like the blazes! I have noticed similar curious activities and outrageous earnings statement as far as the shares of Qwest, Amazon.com, and Global Crossing shares are concerned.
I have been attacking analysts here on this forum for well over a couple of years. My conclusions are based on simple observations. These analysts seem to have lost touch with reality in many cases. They apparently are part of a coordinated "pump and prime" scheme where their employers and the management of the companies that they follow refuse to be honest with the shareholder on the true health of the company. We can apparently also add corporate accountants in the case of Arthur Andersen (so far).
I supposed that the "I was duped" defense is all that they have at this point. Somehow I don't think that they could find that many inept people to occupy space on Wall Street. I believe that the real reasons are a bit more nefarious than that.
- Black Blade
mikal
(02/27/02; 17:09:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70858)
Re: Greedspam
Every cloud has a silver lining, but CNBC just handed us another gold one. Considering that viewers were treated to an enticing and pointed accusation against their overlords, tickling their curiosity, that alone was GOOD. But, mind you, they were spared from the distracting and hypnotic Greenspeak, which to me causes intellectual vertigo and nausea.
mikal
(02/27/02; 16:54:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 70857)
@Anduril
Your post was very reassuring and reminiscent of Trail Guide I am very impressed by such Euro and gold discussion here and elsewhere. It is rare that we see such thorough and unemotional treatment of that topic, especially now with so much pressure to be patriotic and loyal to the "almighty dollar". I continue to weight my purchases towards AU, expecting it to hold its value with greater price appreciation and stability than silver.
mikal
(02/27/02; 16:41:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70856)
@Anduril
Your post was very reassuring and reminiscent of Trail Guide I am very impressed by such Euro and gold discussion here and elsewhere. It is rare that we see such thorough and unemotional treatment of that topic, especially now with so much pressure to be patriotic and loyal to the almighty dollar.
R Powell
(02/27/02; 16:28:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70855)
Was GATA watching (waiting) for Paul's questions?
Thanks, uponroof, for the link to the Greenman's testimony. My first reaction to hearing that the peoples' stock market television channel choose not to give us Mr. Greenspan's answer to Mr. Paul's question was that GATA would not let this exchange go unreported. I'll be very surprised if Chris Powell doesn't give us the details.
Yo, Chris, are you out there?
******
Cavan Man,
Perhaps you might add that fiat paper requires acceptance or confidence. As in, for 2nd grade, if you wash my car I'll buy you that toy you been wishing for but you'll have to take this paper to the store to exchange for the toy. After the car is washed!
Rich
mikal
(02/27/02; 16:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 70854)
Gold and silver
Solomon Weaver and Anduril: Thank you for your posts today! Very articulate, original, and enjoyable. Solomon, do you see the parallel world of precious for poor nations and people. I mean, even as of gold revalues and reemerges in modern use and thought, I see developing interest in silver, its consumption in North America and worldwide such as the new Arab silver denarii and the beautiful and Mexican Libertad. Despite its bulkiness in large amounts, small amounts will always go very far in medicine, industrial, and monetary use. And as you state so well, its price and supply have been manipulated to our advantage. Actually an unprecedented situation of severe shortage and unsustainably low prices-low enough to close mines and hinder supply well into the future. Like the sun and the moon, gold and silver will always shine together.
Boilermaker
(02/27/02; 16:14:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 70853)
Gas Guzzling Gringos
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020227/business_energy_gasoline_demand_dc_1.html
Snippit;
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. drivers are burning up gasoline at breakneck pace, cutting down supplies during a time of year they normally grow as travelers choose the highway over the runway, energy analysts said on Wednesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
``To the extent that people aren't flying since the Sept. 11 attacks, they're driving instead,'' said Aaron Brady, analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Boston.
Gasoline consumption over the past four weeks has averaged 8.374 million barrels per day (bpd), 2.5 percent above the same period last year, while jet fuel demand has averaged 9 percent below last year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
The robust gasoline demand, bolstered by the increasing popularity of gas-guzzling Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs), mostly mild winter weather and lower pump prices, has helped boost petroleum prices, hit by the economic recession and low home heating oil use.
``Gasoline demand has been a very strong element,'' said John Cogan, downstream analyst at DOE's Energy Information Administration, which expects U.S. gasoline demand in 2002 to average 2.4 percent higher than last year, even as demand for other products declines.
``The fact that Americans are still buying SUVs suggests that gasoline demand will continue to be strong in the coming years,'' said ESAI's Brady. Light truck buying soared in the months after the Sept. 11 attacks when automobile dealers offered financing deals.
Supply reports released by the EIA and American Petroleum Institute (API) for last week each showed large declines in U.S. gasoline stockpiles, with the EIA report showing a decline of 1.1 million barrels during the week ended Friday, Feb. 22, and the API showing a decline of 2.1 million barrels.
Boilermaker;
I did my part for the OPEC cause yesterday, bought a 96 Blazer to eventually replace my 92 Taurus. Actually my wife won't let me use her SUV anymore because of my alleged auto abuse tendencies. The Taurus still runs fine but it won't pull my trailer. Fill your tank now prices are headed up very soon.
Solomon Weaver
(02/27/02; 15:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 70852)
All that glitters is not gold.....all those who wander are not lost.
Mr Anduril has no harsh words for silver.....he simply loves the sport of taking a stance on an easy theme...gold, by and large and in the long run is the king.....but today, the ratio is meaningless because the "prices" of both metals are sold short by leasing.
Silver, for the japanese housewife who has a pick-up truck might still be a worthy investment....but she will have a hard time finding a bank that will get her the material.
What makes silver unique today is that it was removed as coin (creating massive inventories) just about the time the world moved to needing a lot of silver for industry.
The official silver count today comes out to about 1 year of global production.....the official gold count is about 50 years of today's production.....simply noted....as gold begins to move in price, there is plenty of gold to move to new owners.....but with silver there is really not enough left around to make an honest market with.
Silver has experienced a much lower level of "positive" investment demand than gold. One very important point is that the gold and silver carry trades (leasing) although they have driven the price of both metals down, are actually massive expressions of "investment demand"....why do I say this? The metal moves in reaction to an investment intention...(lease and sell short)...that appears as a supply excess...but creates a future buy demand.
I noticed in today's paper that a Hong Kong Tycoon will invest $750 million in Global Crossing Asia. This is about the same amount of money that Mr. Buffet spent on silver in 1997. Back then, with vault silver in the region of 1 billion ounces, Mr. Buffet was only able to take delivery on a little more than half of what he bought (the rest had to be rolled into leases). Now, 5 years later, with 500-800 million ounces of silver left around, what would happen if someone tried to buy $500 million worth of silver and take delivery?
Anduril....please continue to debate us about silver...but make no wagers on that ratio....because we are in a very unique situation....and if ANY demand from the small guy for silver comes back....well.
POS
uponroof
(02/27/02; 15:40:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70851)
Greenspan's Testimony in full.....
http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/cspan.csp?command=dschedule
CSPAN 8:55 est tonight.
Don't get your hopes up. Doublespeak is his native tongue. I'm more interested in hearing Paul's question....the tone, the emphasis etc.
Solomon Weaver
(02/27/02; 15:27:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70850)
A defining characteristic
Cavan Man (02/27/02; 10:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 70830)
Need Help from Forum
What are the defining characteristics or functions of MONEY? I can only remember a couple:
1. Medium of exchange
2. Divisibility
3. Store of value (ha!)
Working on a 2nd grade presentation and need input today please. TIA....CM
. . . . . .
Don't forget this one.
My four year old daughter
Money is something that your dad keeps in his pocket and uses to buy candy.
Ten Bears
(02/27/02; 14:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 70849)
Levels of gov't. / media propaganda
In order of frequency of use:
(1) Omissions
(2) Irrelevancies
(3) Slants and Distortions
(4) Outright Lies
An example of #1 - Media omission of Greenspan's response to Congressman Paul's question.
ausome
(02/27/02; 14:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 70848)
AG on derivatives
Another, more conventional determinant of stability will be the economy's degree of leverage--the extent to which debt rather than equity is financing the level of capital. The proper degree of leverage in a firm, or in an economy as a whole, is an inherently elusive figure that almost certainly changes from time to time. Clearly, firms find some leverage advantageous in enhancing returns on equity, and thus moderate leverage undoubtedly boosts the capital stock and the level of output. A sophisticated financial system, with its substantial array of instruments to unbundle risks, will tend toward a higher degree of leverage at any given level of underlying economic risk. But, the greater the degree of leverage in any economy, the greater its vulnerability to unexpected shortfalls in demand and mistakes.
Indeed, on a historical cost basis, the ratio of debt to net worth for the nonfinancial corporate business sector did rise, from 71 percent at the end of 1997 to about 81 percent at the end of the third quarter of last year, though it is still well below its level at the beginning of the recession in 1990. The ratio of interest payments to cash flow, one indicator of the consequence of leverage, has crept up in recent years, reflecting growth in debt. However, owing to lower interest rates, it remains far below its levels of the early 1990s.
Although the fears of business leverage have been mostly confined to specific sectors in recent years, concerns over potential systemic problems resulting from the vast expansion of derivatives have reemerged with the difficulties of Enron. To be sure, firms like Enron, and Long-Term Capital Management before it, were major players in the derivatives markets. But their problems were readily traceable to an old fashioned excess of debt, however acquired, as well as to opaque accounting of that leverage and lax counterparty scrutiny. Swaps and other derivatives throughout their short history, including over the past eighteen months, have been remarkably free of default. Of course, there can be latent problems in any market that expands as rapidly as these markets have. Regulators and supervisors are particularly sensitive to this possibility. Derivatives have provided greater flexibility to our financial system. But their very complexity could leave counterparties vulnerable to significant risk that they do not currently recognize, and hence these instruments potentially expose the overall system if mistakes are large. In that regard, the market's reaction to the revelations about Enron provides encouragement that the force of market discipline can be counted on over time to foster much greater transparency and increased clarity and completeness in the accounting treatment of derivatives.
How these countervailing forces for stability evolve will surely be a major determinant of the volatility that our economy will experience in the years ahead. Monetary policy will have to be particularly sensitive to the possibility that the resiliency our economy has exhibited during the past two years signals subtle changes in the way our system functions.
Ten Bears
(02/27/02; 14:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70847)
test
test nm
RobotGuy
(02/27/02; 14:34:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 70846)
@Biolermaker
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Shades+of+Green&siteid=mktw
Using psychological tactics to try to stimulate worrisome investors, cause all the news is good according to this nut, investors are just feeling a little "schizoid" --- even goes so far as to try and prove it by getting a University professor of group behavior involved.
Boilermaker
(02/27/02; 14:21:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 70845)
Todat's SM Commentary
Just read the (AP) SM closing commentary that included this brief quote;
A.G. Edward's Goldman said that there was a tug of war in the market.
``The guys in the black hats are talking about a confidence crisis, led by Enron,'' Goldman said. ``The good guys are talking about the recovery. They'll win eventually, because the future always wins over history.''
Boilermaker;
Could you find a better reason to sell stocks? This guy is pathetic.
RobotGuy
(02/27/02; 14:12:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 70844)
@Boilermaker
Great link!!
Seems to me Greenspan might be touchy on the subject given that good read, it must be in the back of his mind whenever anyone asks him about gold. Not allowed to express true feelings for the benefit of the people.
Trapper
(02/27/02; 13:59:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 70843)
Anduril
Sir: It comes down to this. First you said silver is a poor investment we should only buy gold because all the big boys were buying gold. OK. Many of us say Mr. Buffet(Mr. Gates too) is a big player and he owns about 25% of all the above ground silver. Your response appears is to deride Buffet et al as some how not to be considered good examples. Please provide us all with the big guy whom you follow for gold investing advice. I would like to compare him to our guys and check out the track record. Mr Buffet had made some pretty fair money as in BRKa & BRKb over the years. As for the 60-1 ratio I would be glad the wager some gold vs. some silver that the ratio will go 50-1 before it goes to 70-1.
Live small.
RJ
sector
(02/27/02; 13:53:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70842)
Bloomberg Commentary...But Tell Us What You Really Think!
02/26 01:01
Forget Reform -- CEOs Just Can't Handle the Truth: David Pauly
By David Pauly
New York, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Pushing for fuller corporate disclosure following the Enron Corp. fraud is futile.
CEOs couldn't tell the whole truth if they had to.
Reared on a language notable for dissemblings, omissions and euphemisms, corporate executives are no longer capable of seeing reality.
Bill Gates, chairman of predatory Microsoft Corp., actually believes he's a benevolent dictator. Cisco Systems Inc.'s John Chambers truly thinks the wild prices he paid to acquire smaller companies were immaterial.
Dozens of asset-rich but poorly earning companies do believe ``pro forma'' earnings are real profits and that interest payments aren't real costs.
Bosses at discount retailer Kmart Corp. and copier maker Xerox Corp. have talked confidently about their companies' ``turnarounds.'' Do they know what a turnaround is?
Did Kmart's Chuck Conaway think the company's chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in January signaled a comeback? If Kmart was on the mend, why had it just hired two executives experienced in dealing with sick companies? Did Xerox's Anne Mulcahy consider her company's seven straight quarters of declining sales a good omen?
CEOs routinely put a gloss on bankruptcy, just as they bury losses deep in financial reports. It's not illegal, is it?
Who Me?
It's improbable that Tyco International Ltd. violated any law when it paid $20 million to a director and a charity he controlled for helping Tyco buy CIT Group Inc. last year -- or by withholding that information from investors until this past January. After all, what are lawyers for?
But the director, Frank E. Walsh Jr., was just doing his job. And he certainly had a conflict: He owned 50,000 CIT shares at the time he was helping Tyco buy the company.
A week after Kmart sought protection from its creditors, Global Crossing Ltd. -- which operates about 100,000 miles of fiber-optic cable under the seas -- did the same, with the same sense of unreality.
The five-year-old company founded by former Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. executive Gary Winnick was saddled with $12.4 billion in debt and plagued by overcapacity and weak demand from telephone companies. It never earned a dime, losing $3.35 billion in the third quarter of 2001 alone.
Distraction
Still, Global Crossing led off the announcement of its failure by saying that two Asian telecommunications companies -- Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., controlled by Hong Kong businessman Li Ka- shing, and Singapore Technologies Telemedia Ltd. -- had agreed to buy control of the company for $750 million.
Oh, by the way, the company said in the next sentence, we're filing for chapter 11 protection.
What's more, rather than saying straight out that its shares, which once traded at $64.25, were now worthless, the company said, ``Existing common equity and preferred shareholders would not participate in the new capital structure.''
This isn't harmless butt covering. By refusing to call the destruction of net worth ``the destruction of net worth,'' executives lose their ability to deal with such a disaster. How can they deal with a problem if they don't see it for what it is?
CEOs exhibit what is becoming a universal disability. In 1995, Columbia University humanities professor Andrew Delbanco came out with a book called ``The Death of Satan: How Americans Have Lost the Sense of Evil'' (Farrar Straus & Giroux). By refusing to acknowledge evil by saying the word, we become impotent to deal with it, Delbanco said. Remember the impact President George W. Bush made after the Sept. 11 attacks when he called evildoers ``evildoers''?
CEOs may not be physically endangering lives, but their failure to confront their own failures puts their companies at risk. Bosses blame declining profits on the recession rather than on their own failure to plan -- or on their inability to motivate workers or to create new products and persuade consumers to buy them. CEOs simply can't handle the truth.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Corporate credibility is a huge anchor...dragging the DOW and everything else. There will be NO "recovery" until there is a massive rewrite of the SEC accounting rules and corporate officer penalty clauses...a THAT will happen when Greenspan does a Triple Lutz.
America is turning into Argentina...slowly to be sure.
Ulysses
(02/27/02; 13:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 70841)
AG-Enron-gold-Ron Paul
I don't think it's a coincidence that they switched out from Greenspan's answer to Ron Paul's question to another program. They're telling us something. They're telling us to take our money out of the banks and to put it somewhere safer because the dollar's going to hit the wall and we'll get Argentina type bank controls.Gold and/or euros sound like the safest things to hold.
Boilermaker
(02/27/02; 13:50:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70840)
Cavan Man
http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html
Here's a good definition and background from Greenspan (in his former real life).
"Money is the common denominator of all economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all participants in an exchange economy as payment for their goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of saving.
The existence of such a commodity is a precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not have some commodity of objective value which was generally acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.
What medium of exchange will be acceptable to all participants in an economy is not determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible: every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are neither homogeneous nor divisible. More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.
In the early stages of a developing money economy, several media of exchange might be used, since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will gradually displace all others, by being more widely acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value, will shift to the most widely acceptable commodity, which, in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an incalculably wider scale.
Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of World War I, it has been virtually the sole international standard of exchange. If all goods and services were to be paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to execute and this would tend to limit the extent of a society's divisions of labor and specialization. Thus a logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange is the development of a banking system and credit instruments (bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but are convertible into, gold."
Boilermaker;
You should probably take along some gold, silver, copper, etc. coins and a wad of the paper stuff. Don't let the little buggers steal any of it. Just for fun ask them if anyone knows who Alan Greenspan is.
RobotGuy
(02/27/02; 13:41:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 70839)
Greenspan and gold
Is there any way to find out if the question was answered? Is it possible he refused an answer? If there is a full dialogue available, I would really like to catch the remainder of this discussion as well. PLEASE POST!! I can't stop thinking that Greenspan had a secret indication to the news crew, that would cause them to cut away ("ok guys if I scratch my left eyebrow cut to a commercial"). Obviously gold is a very big topic right now with the number of countries buying larger than normal quantities. Why won't our public servants address these questions? What is the big secret they're concealing? Could it possibly be that they're adraid the public is going to realize that PMs arent just "commodities"?
Operative
(02/27/02; 12:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70838)
Greenspan Edit/CNBC
@ escapethematrix
Glad you mentioned the swift cut from Greenspan to the Enron hearing. I had been watching CNBC with audio turned off. Suddenly the affiable smiling of Greenspan changed. The camera switched to a shot of Greenspan leaning far back in his chair, smile gone, indeed a high brow scowl had taken its place. This cued me that something unpleasant for the Master of Disaster was accuring so I punched up the audio as the camera switched to the Senator's question. I caught most of the question that involved words like "fiat" (never hear that one mentioned!!) and referance to the part GOLD plays in the fiancial world. I thought finally, someone had the guts to ask a solid, sincere question (vs. the softball ala Larry King style questions). As I awaited the perturbed Greenspan answer, CNBC cut him off and switched to Enron.
I hope someone gets a transcrpit and posts it for all to read. Kudo's to the senator for introducing, attempting, to bring up the subject of fiat and gold. I would like to see a transcript of what was going on in the CNBC control room. Some producer screaming to "CUT AWAY!! CUT TO ENRON!!
Patience......Gold's Day will come in spite of all the cover-up, the game playing, the well timed media reports of sales and ships. Those with the Gold will indeed make the new rules.
Cavan Man
(02/27/02; 12:48:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 70837)
Siochain and Shermag
Thanks! BTW, been to GMU....beautiful campus.
Rock
(02/27/02; 12:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 70836)
When you attack Black Blade you attack the table
i didnt read the post but i gathered by reading todays messages that some unknown came into our castle and disrespected one of the head knights of the round table. that kind of behavior is unacceptable. this is a very high caliber group of inteligent individuals whom i consider equilivant to quite a few professors of economics and finance whom offer their pearls of wisdom at no charge. like many who lurk here at what i call the "genius boards" i have come to learn much and add little.
let me say this to anyone who doesnt have the respect to enter into the castle of the wise and educated with at least the decency to listen and learn beware of your own ignorance, need i say more.
Rock
RobotGuy
(02/27/02; 12:18:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70835)
Money idea
We all know that gold and silver were commonplace as a form of trade for all goods in the not too distant past. The reason we can't use the same method of trade today, is simply because of volume of currency world wide it such that we wouldn't be able to have enough of the precious metal to replace it...., unless.
Another major problem with paper money etc, is that it has a tendancy to wear out and is still easy for bandits to counterfeit even with our 'newest' anti counterfeiting properties...., unless.
Unless we were to create guaranteed alloys that could be verified by any laboratory, or even the latest metal detecting gizmos to have the required percentage of the various precious metals. In that manner, we would be able to make very durable alloys, and your money would be guaranteed to hold at least it's value in precious metals. Since we can calculate roughly the amount of currency used in the world, we should easily be able to calculate the varying percentages of precious metals in the currency.
On the upside you would have what you earned in your pocket. On the downside, we'd all have to start carrying change purses again.
Just a thought.
Siochain
(02/27/02; 11:54:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70834)
@ Cavan Man
http://mason.gmu.edu/~alockard/310ans1.htm
Though not specific to your question...here are some school Q&A re money that may be useful (though you may take issue with a few answers)& gear to the grade level
http://mason.gmu.edu/~alockard/310ans1.htm
Shermag
(02/27/02; 11:47:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 70833)
Cavan Man: Defining characteristics or functions of MONEY
How about:
4. Transportability.
5. Some restraint on its reproducability.
escapethematrix
(02/27/02; 11:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70832)
After the Collapse Of Enron:Next Comes The Cluster-Bust!
http://www.larouchepub.com/eirtoc/confpres/2002/pres_day/2908cluster_keynote.html
This presentation appears in the new issue of Executive Intelligence Review. I have always wondered why the mainstream media tries to ridicule, denigrate and marginalize Mr. Larouche.....But it becomes clear as one reads his work , it's because he tells the truth!! And of course, we can't have that, can we??
Snippets:
What is involved in Enron, and Enron's counterparties, according to the best estimates of leading experts in various parts of the world, is this: More than $100 trillion of notional value of financial derivatives are in the process of imploding! We're not talking about a $35 billion collapse; we're talking about a potential notional collapse in financial derivatives, of over $100 trillion, just because of the connections of the Enron collapse.
So, what happened, in the year 2000, coinciding with the collapse of the so-called "New Economy" bubble—. Remember, the New Economy was set into motion in 1995, and it collapsed in the year 2000, and it is disintegrating now. It collapsed in the Spring of the year 2000. It was then pumped up, by Plunge Protection money, but it collapsed again, in 2001, and it was the collapse of the New Economy bubble, before Sept. 11th, which caused the present financial collapse, leading to the Enron collapse, and what's coming out of that.
So, now we have come to a point that the entire system, from the top down, is in a process of self-disintegration. This is a situation, very much like, as I shall indicate, what happened in Weimar Germany in 1923, when a system of bubble-building, which had existed in Weimar Germany for more than a year—almost two years before then—which had not caused hyperinflation, suddenly, in the June-July period of 1923, began to become hyperinflationary. And, within less than five months from that point, the German reichsmark ceased, virtually, to exist; and was re-created by U.S. gold at a later point, under the Dawes Plan.
We're in a period like that, in which the system is in the process of coming down.
Now, this is the condition, which the United States economy reached during the Spring of the year 2000. At this point, the amount of financial aggregate, which had to be poured into the economy, under the Clinton program of Plunge Protection—the amount of aggregate that had to be poured in, to keep the stock market, and related financial markets from collapsing—exceeded the amount of endangered financial assets, which needed to be rolled over. This is exactly what happened to Germany, in June-July of 1923, in which the German bank had to print money, more rapidly, than was accounted for by the amount of assets it was rolling over. And that led to hyperinflation.
So, at this point, the U.S. financial system, in the Spring and Summer of 2000, went into a hyperinflationary mode. The real economy was collapsing at an accelerating rate. Look at the layoffs; look at the shutdowns, now ongoing. The physical economy is collapsing at an accelerating rate. The financial aggregate system—the market—is not. It is now collapsing. That is, the rate of expansion of financial market values, on stock markets and similar exchanges, is not rising, at the rate it was. And, since the value of these so-called "assets," was based on the rate of growth, a slowing of the rate of growth, means an inevitable slowing, dropping, of the yield on these investments. At the same time, to maintain these levels of these investments, by cutting Federal Reserve interest rates, for example, the amount of money that has to be poured in, is greater than the among of financial assets being supported, subsidized, by money-printing.
Now, if you have a system of this type, in which all of these characters are in these derivatives partnership deals—counterparty relationships—and they're entangled, like the biggest, dirtiest spider web you ever imagined—what happens is, when it starts to collapse, the whole thing comes down in a chain-reaction collapse. What we're dealing with now, is over $100 trillion of notional values in derivatives, sitting on top of a bubble, in which there's Global Crossing, and so forth. Many of these things like that, are in Bermuda or the Jersey Islands, or so forth. They're purely shell operations.
Old Yeller
(02/27/02; 10:53:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 70831)
Tim Wood on gold market perceptions
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B6D0001A4B9?OpenDocument
Good read,interesting points raised on funding the current account deficit.
Cavan Man
(02/27/02; 10:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 70830)
Need Help from Forum
What are the defining characteristics or functions of MONEY? I can only remember a couple:
1. Medium of exchange
2. Divisibility
3. Store of value (ha!)
Working on a 2nd grade presentation and need input today please. TIA....CM
darkhorse
(02/27/02; 10:50:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70829)
Talk about a crowd that sticks together...
I challenge anybody to find a better site to hash out all the potentially explosive subjects (a persons finances, let alone their philosophies, is a touchy subject to most people) discussed here without getting into personalities and tit-for-tat Jr. High comeback remarks. On top of that, we like to take care of our own (not that anybody NEEDS it) when somebody does feel the need to turn up the heat. Some people should lurk here just to learn some manners...they might learn something about gold, the economy and their financial future while they're here! :) I'll be here as long as this stays the status quo. My hats off to everbody in the castle, and the whole staff running it!
Pizz
(02/27/02; 10:47:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 70828)
Mr. Gresham
Good thought. Now all we have to do is get a little "fair air time" so a few more people can hear the alarm. If CNBC keeps up their "selective broadcasting" . . . . Why didn't Congress ask a GE executive to go to the hill and sit with the overly bullish analysts? Aren't these analysts invited to come on?
Think GE Capital might be just a little hung out on the short side of Au and just a bit more with all their asset backed paper that's ready for a downgrade. GE puts lookin' better all the time. . . .
Pizz
Waverider
(02/27/02; 10:22:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 70827)
Sir Black Blade
Thank you for your awesome contributions here. It is an honour to learn from you. Keep up the good work and I hope and trust that you'll have a good day. Cheers!
Waverider
Siochain
(02/27/02; 10:10:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 70826)
New Homes sales largest drop since 1994
New home sales fell 14.8% well below estimates of a gain of 0.4% ....this is the biggest slide since 1994 ...and as we all know...it is the Consumer that has kept the SM up ...Yesterday confidence report was down...today drop in new homes sales
Just maybe people are waking up...though market now is pinning hopes that AG will come thru in today's speech...talk can only go so far.....without consumers and company profits...the SM cannot be sustained...no matter the smoke and mirrors
Mr Gresham
(02/27/02; 10:06:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70825)
Thought (not really very "deep") for the morning
When gold pops limit up, the commentators will refer to us as "those perennial goldbugs", the "stopped clock, which is right twice a day."
Stopped clock? Or alarm clock?
escapethematrix
(02/27/02; 10:03:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 70824)
Greenspan's Q&A session
CNBC
Is it just me, or does it seem like just an incredible coincidence that CNBC felt the need break away from Greenspan's answer to Ron Paul's questions about the FED running the country in an Enron-like manner and then asking him about Gold's function in our wonderful monetary system??
Just as he was about to answer CNBC cuts away to visit another hearing with industry "analysts" (i.e. " corporate shills")Now, we are back to Greenspans Q&A but Mr. Paul's time has past, and AG's answer was not broadcast. Coincidence....Stupidity.....or something else??
A Canadian
(02/27/02; 09:50:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70823)
BLACK BLADE & U.S.A GOLD ...........
.....have taught me more in 6 months than 4 yrs of business school !!!!
admin
(02/27/02; 09:47:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 70822)
Black Blade. . . .
Sorry we didn't catch that sooner. No one should have to put with that nonsense. It never ceases to amaze us that someone who makes absolutely no contribution to this forum whatsoever sees fit to come on only to attack another poster -- and an important one at that. Carry on, good Sir.
USAGOLD Market Commentary
(02/27/02; 08:40:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 70820)
Some Speculation on Yesterday's Rally: Is It Likely to Continue?
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Pizz
(02/27/02; 08:31:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 70819)
(No Subject)
Belgian: Got a better place to put fiat?? (smile) You told me a few months back that one option the US had regarding the $ was "stubborn denial". I'll add "goin' down swinging" to your correct IMHO assumption. Pride commith before the fall. (When I typed this last sentence it came out first as "Price commith before the fall" - maybe both are right?)
Mr. Gresham: Thanks. What do you think we will do when (IMO) our European allies tell us where to go (tactfully of course). The EU has set up a pretty good base to "call a creditors committee" (behind closed doors of course) if we get too far out of line.
Black Blade: You said more with two words than most of us here could with two pages. Your intellect and wisdom show. Keep up the good work.
Pizz
uponroof
(02/27/02; 08:09:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70818)
Japan.....phoney reforms not fooling the markets
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20020227/bs_dowjones/dollar_higher_against_yen_after_japan_plan_delivers_little
"..Japan 's government promised a cleanup Wednesday of the bad debts crippling the nation's banks but failed to go beyond earlier promises in a keenly anticipated anti-deflation package. The measures were leaked to the press earlier, but the final announcements contained no new policy initiatives, therefore disappointing the market.
The plan "suggests the government either cannot or will not force through more significant reforms and it means it will continue to try muddling through its bad loan problem," said Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at HSBC in New York .
The move towards the key 135 yen threshold in the dollar/yen pair, has sparked debate "as to whether we're entering a new trading range," he said.
Mr. Greenspan could help accelerate a move up in the dollar/yen pair if - as expected - he delivers an upbeat assessment of the economy, in his twice-yearly report to Congress on monetary policy..."
uponroof-speaking of Greenspan, things are so bad these days might we get a reference or two of 'privatisation of Social Security' today? That's always good for a stock market bounce.
************
Black Blade can certainly handle himself and he needs no help from me but let me relate an incident he told me of awhile ago....
Johnny Cochran was duck hunting near his Wyoming wilderness preserve a few years ago, when he attempted to cross a fence into a field to retrieve a duck he had shot (bad move).
Black Blade, watching this from afar, suddenly pulled up in his pickup truck, jumped out, and asked Mr.Cochran what he was doing on his property. "Retrieving this duck that I just shot," he replied.
"That duck is on my side of the fence, so now it's mine," says Black Blade. " No one slays ducks on my property unless they ask me first"
So Cochran stated that the duck was in air off of his property but fell in. Then he asked him if he recognized who he was talking to. "No", says Black Blade, "I don't know and don't care."
"I'm Johnny Cochran, famous lawyer from Los Angeles," comes the reply. "I am the lawyer that got O.J. Simpson off. I'm the reason he is a free man today. And if you don't let me get that duck, I can sue you for your farm, your truck, and everything else you own. I'll leave you penniless on the street."
"Well," says Black Blade, "In these parts the only law we go by is the '3 kicks' law."
"Never heard of it," says Johnny.
Black Blade: "It works like this: I get to kick you 3 times, and if you make it back to your feet and are able to kick me back 3 times, that duck is yours."
Cochran thought this over. He grew up in a tough neighborhood and figured he could take the old outdoorsman "Fair enough", he said.
So Black Blade points to the sky, diverting Johnnys attention, then kicks him violently in the groin. As he's doubling over, he kicks him in the face, and when he hits the ground, he kicks him hard in the ribs. After several moments, Johnny slowly makes it back to his feet.
"All right....your kicks were hard licks. But now you hick, it's my turn to kick" says Johnny.
"Awww, forget it," says Black Blade. "You can have the duck..."
...and that's the only duck BB ever gave up. Politically Correct? You must be joking.
************
Jin-Yin and ALL...
I am also cultivating new interest in gold at 'other investment sites'...with some success. 'Success' simply because gold carries a truth with it that is undeniable. Discussion of gold has a way of finding it's way to the very core of economic matters, without contrived or biased guidance.
'Revelation' is the word that conveys the impact gold brings to those seeking deeper monetary understanding. The concepts are so deep seeded and radically different from today's mantra that it is difficult at first for life long 'paperbugs' to grasp.
We understand basic truths that others see as wild perhaps irresponsible thoughts. Fr'instance...if you are not an American in this current world economic scheme, you are nothing less than 'behind the eight ball'. Or that only gold protects from a falling dollar under current globalization. Bold statements that draw attention..and hold water.
There are several other 'truths', which we take for granted, which are eye openers to those unfamiliar.
Seek out intellectual forums with members who seek truth and ask questions.....gold will eventually shine at those sites. Forums of more fast paced posters involved in frantic day trading are too busy to build deeper knowledge. Not that there are a lot of day traders left out there. (which is why this is a good time to offer your thoughts)
These folks are the future gold herd. We do ourselves and others no great service when we explain the nuances of gold ad infinitum to each other at our own home site. We're already on board, no sense in beating a dead horse.
Share some of your time at other boards where your voice really matters. Use some of your time to help others who are perhaps searching. This insane financial climate has an alternative which has been carefully hidden from their view.
Plus, there's always something to learn from others.
C'mon, be the cartel's worst nightmare...get out and spread the word.
Black Blade
(02/27/02; 08:09:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 70817)
S.Africa gold output near 1953 low, seen steadier
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020227/l27309139_2.html
Snippit:
JOHANNESBURG, Feb 27 (Reuters) - South African gold output tumbled in 2001 to its lowest since 1953 due to a drop in average grades, but is seen stabilising, the Chamber of
Mines said on Wednesday. Gold production slipped to 393,254 kg from 427,981 kg in 2000, the lowest since 1953's 371,395 kg, the Chamber's Chief Economist, Roger Baxter, said in a statement.
Black Blade: Less production coupled with no exploration to replenish reserves means a sharply lower supply going forward. And this is not only in SA - this is worldwide. Gold companies have been merging and this will probably continue as the majors have not been doing much as far as exploration is concerned.
da2g
(02/27/02; 08:05:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 70816)
Gerald re: Black Blade
Jerry:
Please don't try to hold back your feelings too much, you're going to give yourself an ulcer ;)
Black Blade: Keep your posts coming!
Black Blade
(02/27/02; 07:32:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70815)
Analysts Face Scrutiny Over Enron Ratings
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A7658-2002Feb26?language=printer
Snippit:
Wall Street stock analysts who have been widely criticized for remaining bullish on Enron Corp. until the bitter end will face unfriendly questions this morning at a hearing before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee.
Senators are expected to grill four analysts about why they declined to downgrade Enron before the energy trading company's stock lost much of its value, crushing the retirement accounts of company employees and putting a dent in many investors' portfolios.
"What were the analysts' motives?" Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), the committee chairman, is expected to ask, according to a committee spokeswoman. "Why were they blind to the company's decline, and how can we prevent similar failures in the future?"
The opening panel will include four analysts who covered Enron for major Wall Street firms: Anatol Feygin, from J.P. Morgan Chase; Richard Gross, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.; Curt Launer, Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB); and Raymond Niles, from the Salomon Smith Barney unit of Citigroup Inc. The panel will also include Howard Schilit, an independent analyst and president of the Center for Financial Research and Analysis in Rockville.
Black Blade: Today the grill is set on high for a severe roasting. There was one analyst at BNP Pariba (named Socotta?) who gave a sell rating to Enron shortly before the collapse. He was fired and now is working as an independent. Should be an "interesting" grilling before the Senate.
BTW, Alan Greenspin gives testimony before Congress today as well.
Black Blade
(02/27/02; 07:18:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 70814)
Japan Unveils Anti-Deflation Package
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020227/japan_package_details_1.html
Japan's Anti-Deflation Package Tackles Bad Debt and Sinking Stocks
Snippit:
Here are some highlights:
-- Speed up disposal of bad bank loans. The government estimates Japan's commercial banks are saddled with some 43 trillion yen ($323 billion) in bad debt, while private estimates run as high as double that amount. Writing off those losses may give banks a fresh start to finance the economy's expansion.
-- Pressure debtor companies to restructure. The worst offenders will be asked to adopt solid turnaround programs or face the possibility of folding.
-- Urge central bank to loosen monetary policy. Bank of Japan Gov. Masaru Hayami has already indicated he will comply, possibly by cutting interest rates further or buying more government bonds to inject even more cash into the system. Typically, the more money in circulation, the faster prices tend to rise.
-- Buoy Japan's sinking stock market. The plan calls for tightening restrictions on short-selling, an investment strategy that bets on stocks declining. Government officials have said they want to keep the Tokyo exchange's Nikkei index from falling much below its current level around 10,000. A government-backed stock-buying entity called the Banks' Shareholding Acquisition Corp. will be charged with buying up to 2 trillion yen ($15 billion) shares from banks, which are selling to meet new stockholding restrictions.
-- Free up credit for small- and medium-sized businesses. Small-time entrepreneurs are finding it increasingly difficult to get cash to start up new businesses. The new plan calls for creating a special fund to make that easier.
Black Blade: I had briefly mentioned that short-selling was to be severely restricted a couple of nights ago. We even knew about Japan's version of the PPT. Until now the insolvent Japanese banks would not write-off the bad debt and nonperforming loans. That does surprise me. There must be a bit of "culture shock" in Japan today. Something tells me that this might work short-term, but it is too little - too late. "Interesting Times"
RobotGuy
(02/27/02; 07:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 70813)
@Gerald
Man, I don't know what Black Blade said to hurt your feelings so much, but I have to admit, from what I've seen this forum doesn't regularly sport blunt negativity. Black Blade may be a little extreme at times, but as all people he also has a personality. B.B. has been very helpful in providing me with viewpoints and ideas that otherwise I mightn't consider. Please don't soil this forum with flames, I enjoy reading these posts and flames seem to tarnish the lustre.
Each individual is very capable of simply stating anything they wish I'm sure, but if you have a 'beef', why not discuss the specifics with that individual instead of bluntly stating 'you're dumb.'
With all respect,
Robotguy.
Cavan Man
(02/27/02; 07:13:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 70812)
Black Blade
Oil up today! Keep up the good work.
Black Blade
(02/27/02; 07:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 70811)
RE: MOJO-JOJO - Unemployment
http://economics.about.com/library/chartroom/blunemplmeasure.htm?iam=dpile&terms=unemployment
I am not sure which article you are referring to, however, Forbes had about three or four articles that addressed this issue as well as Jim Puplava on his market wrap-ups. Those articles may have expired by now. I did find a copy of BLS Report 864 by former BLS commissioner Katharine Abraham (1994) that glosses over the details of how the government determines the unemployment rate (see link). There is a good bibliography that may help. There is a follow up report that also details additional changes. I believe that was Report 871.
This is nothing new as some major changes were made to how the BLS gathers and manipulates data under the Daddy Bush administration (especially the CPI, PPI, and unemployment data). More changes are in the offing as the newest change will be in how the BLS calculates the CPI - this is the recently announced "chained CPI". It is a measure that will cheat Social Security recipients out of their COLA adjustments.
I recently read that New York state has about 80,000 people who are running out of benefits and still no employment. These people are now considered employed as far as the BLS is concerned. There are no provisions for determining how many people are now under-employed. At the link you can read about some of the statistical massage and filters that are used by the BLS to understate the unemployment data. I hope this helps. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/27/02; 06:45:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 70810)
RE: Gerald
Oh...OK.
Andúril
(02/27/02; 06:42:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 70809)
Silver flows as water to the sea
R Powell (02/14/02; 15:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 70023), you misinterpret the way of it in your reply, saying, "you posted some harsh words about silver based on the current 60 to 1 (ratio)"
Know now and know surely that hard words previously offered were for hard heads alone; the softness of a silvery metal does not warrant such keen attention of emotion that you would here have it receive. Would you have any rational man pause in his day to love (or hate) a rock for being as nature devised? And yet also, a fool is he that looks at silver, seeing silver only. Polish that which is before you so that you may better see the ways of mankind, ways seen clearly as reflected in the silver falling from 12:1 to 60:1 ...and beyond. It comes to this: The broad course of human events flows as a river. Comprehension accepts meanders as but small part of the whole, and folly it is to bet against this flow, so easy to see from suitable vantage points anywhere along the way. Against gold, silver will not reclaim the high ground it once knew.
As with silver, it would likewise be irrational to sing the praise of gold for gold's own sake, a "rock" made different by nature's quirk of design. Worthy of praise, however, is the living PERSON gaining the vantage point for recognition of the trend in ECONOMIC USE of this "different rock" within the course AND CLIMATE of human development. For emphasis: at this singular moment in time.
After speaking previously of the smart movements of big money (into gold), some of silver's hardest heads shouted "Look at Buffett, look at Gates!" They know little of the private lives of these two men, and in naming two men, they provide little more than demonstration of their little grasp of the workings of the wide world.
Look at a ripple, listen to a whisper, and learn to go with the flow.
This was in the news:
[TOKYO, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Japanese investors dumped massive amounts of foreign bonds, mostly U.S. Treasuries, in January on worries over rising U.S. interest rates and strong fund demand at Japan's money-losing banks for the fiscal year-end, data showed. Finance Ministry figures released on Wednesday showed Japanese investors sold 3.0712 trillion yen ($23.16 billion) in medium- and long-term foreign bonds in January. "The large amount of sales reflected attempts by banks to reduce their positions in U.S. bonds," a senior ministry official told Reuters.]
Have an eye at big money! Ahead of bank reform, watch Japan as millions of sensible housewives are buying gold kilos. The full yen value of her average savings could be carried home in a handbag of gold at 30 pounds, or a silver truckload at one tonne. A look at big money, in many tiny hands. It does not lift silver. As small money emulates big money, "poor man's 'gold'" will be a metal of yellow hue, matching rich man's gold in substance if not in quantity.
It may be that time alone will raise the vantage point of silver's hardest heads. From 12:1 then 60:1, how far must silver and gold continue to part ways before they see that gold value grows in serving an economic use, a use the market will not inefficiently, redundantly manifest in any other metal or thing? This want for efficiency shall be the continuing cause of silver's long slide from the old high ground.
nickel62
(02/27/02; 05:30:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70807)
Sow this article from Bloomburg to all your friends who still own stocks and see whether or not they still think the market isn't manipulated....!!!!
CSFB, Salomon Smith Barney Topped Ranks of Enron Underwriters
By Tom Cahill
New York, Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street analysts asked to testify before Congress this week about Enron Corp. have one thing in common: Their firms were some of the biggest sellers of the $25 billion in stock and bonds issued by the energy trader.
Analysts from Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse First Boston, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Lehman Brothers Inc. will answer questions from a U.S. Senate committee today on why they maintained ``buy'' recommendations on Enron Corp. stock while the company's finances fell apart.
One reason may have been the underwriting fees their firms received. CSFB, combined with the firm it bought in November 2000, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc., was the biggest underwriter of Enron securities with about $7.4 billion sold. Citigroup Inc.'s Salomon Smith Barney followed with $3.7 billion, including $1.8 billion in convertible bonds sold last February, according to Bloomberg data on managers for bond and note sales.
``They turned a blind eye to the situation for various business reasons,'' said David Hendler, a bank and securities firm analyst at CreditSights Inc., a research firm that does no investment banking.
The banking fees generated by Enron's securities sales prevented analysts from lowering their ratings on the stock, he said. As recently as September, Enron was the second most highly rated stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, behind Tyco International Ltd.
Probes
A dozen congressional committees are probing Enron, which filed the largest U.S. bankruptcy ever on Dec. 2. The company used partnerships to hide debt and losses.
Pen Pendleton, a spokesman for CSFB; Duncan King, a spokesman for Salomon; and Joseph Evangelisti, a spokesman for J.P. Morgan Chase, declined to comment. Bill Ahearn, a spokesman for Lehman, didn't return calls.
Enron, meanwhile, completed or attempted 69 acquisitions with a value of about $40 billion and held 62 bond and note sales during the past 17 years, according to Bloomberg data.
Salomon ranked as the biggest adviser to Enron mergers, with about $5 billion in transactions, followed by CSFB with $4.45 billion, according to Bloomberg data.
Credit Suisse and DLJ served as the exclusive lead managers for $1.75 billion in secondary stock sales by Enron in three sales since 1992, according to Bloomberg data. Those sales generated fees of about $52.5 million in fees, according to Bloomberg data.
Barriers
Enron's relationship with J.P. Morgan Chase grew in the 1990s as Chase Manhattan, which William Harrison ran since 1999, arranged more than $7 billion in loans and other financing for the trading company, according to Bloomberg data.
``Good luck getting business if your analyst had a negative rating on them,'' said Michael Madden, a partner at Questor Management Co. and who ran investment banking at Lehman Brothers and Kidder Peabody Co. in the 1980s and 1990s.
Regulators have proposed rules to strengthen barriers within securities firms between investment bankers and analysts. The National Association of Securities Dealers wants to forbid analysts from reporting to investment bankers and from being paid out of revenue from specific banking transactions.
Analysts would have to disclose any personal holdings of a company's stock they recommend and whether their firm has investment banking ties to that company.
Conflicts
``There are always going to be conflicts as long as investment banking and research are under the same roof,'' said Robert Glauber, chairman of the NASD, who will testify before Congress today. ``By disclosing them we can lessen them.''
Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Joe Lieberman, a Democrat from Connecticut, and Fred Thompson, a Republican from Tennessee, will run the Senate hearing Wednesday, likely to be the first of several on the topic of analyst conflicts.
Speaking will be Lehman's Richard Gross, J.P. Morgan's Anatol Feygin, Salomon Smith Barney's Raymond Niles, and Curtis Launer for CSFB. None of the analysts returned calls.
Launer's boss, CSFB Chief Executive Officer John Mack, acknowledged that analysts at his firm and others have an image problem.
``We're in a business of conflicts; oftentimes that perception that you can't be trusted exists,'' Mack said Monday in an interview on business cable network CNBC. ``We have to do a number of things to win that trust back.''
Ratings
CSFB's Launer rated Enron ``strong buy'' on Oct. 23, a week after the company announced $1 billion in third-quarter losses from secret partnerships and other investments. A day later, J.P. Morgan's Feygin dropped Enron to ``long-term buy'' from ``buy.''
Launer was the top natural gas analyst for 11 of the past 12 years, according to Institutional Investor magazine, which polls money managers annually for their views on the best analysts.
Lehman's Gross repeated his ``strong buy'' rating on Oct. 23, six days after Enron announced the loss. ``Investors should rustle up a little courage and aggressively buy the stock in the face of this torrent of unsettling news,'' Gross wrote in a report to clients.
`Too Late'
To be sure, stock analysts weren't the only ones snookered.
Bond analysts at Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's Corp. maintained investment-grade ratings on the firm until Nov. 28, when the stock had already tumbled 95 percent.
Further, the ratings companies had also given investment grade ratings to Marlin Water Trust II and Osprey Trust, two partnerships backed by Enron stock that required about $4 billion in payments once Enron itself lost its investment grade ratings.
Investors said Enron was far from the first collapse missed by analysts, and won't be last.
``One of the problems with Wall Street is they're always waiting for that last bit information, but by that point it's often too late,'' said Daniel Bandi, who manages about $1.3 billion for Armada Funds at National City Investment Management Co. in Cleveland.
While Enron was once the biggest holding in Bandi's Armada Large Cap Value Fund, he sold when he no longer understood how it was making its money. Now it turns out few analysts did either.
``We said we don't know what's going at this company,'' said Bandi, who said he sold a portion of his position when the stock was near $80 a share. ``That's when you sell.''
Below is a list of the five biggest underwriters of Enron stock and debt, according to Bloomberg data:
CSFB* $7.4 billion
Deutsche Bank AG $4.4 billion
Salomon Smith Barney $3.7 billion
Merrill Lynch & Co. $2.3 billion
Lehman Brothers $2.2 billion
*CSFB and DLJ transactions combined
Knallgold
(02/27/02; 05:00:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 70806)
Goldnonsense
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7BF1DFF822%2DED94%2D4081%2D9599%2D7680E235CE50%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold&property=word&
Please read first...
nickel62
(02/27/02; 03:47:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70805)
Introductions.
Jim Yin I welcome you back. I am an infrequent poster here as well although I share your opinion of the site. Time just limits us all nowadays. What was your handle in a prior life my son?
nickel62
(02/27/02; 03:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 70804)
I forgot to say!
I think the mantra at the time by the financial types was that selling all of Argentina's gold reserves to put the money into an interest bearing investment was a good idea. They couldn't understand why anyone would want to hold gold, which pays no interest. Wonder if they have changed their minds?
nickel62
(02/27/02; 03:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 70803)
Do you all remember about five years ago when Argentina's Central Bank was so happy about selling off all it's gold reserves?
WEll HERE IS THE OUTCOME!
Argentine crisis shakes faith in democracy
By Thomas Catan
Published: February 26 2002 21:07 | Last Updated: February 27 2002 05:28
Politicians are unpopular the world over, but Argentina's rulers have sunk to a level of disrepute probably unparalleled in the country's history.
Eduardo Menem, a national senator and brother of the former president, Carlos, recently got a taste of the popular disdain for his profession on a flight to Buenos Aires from his native province of La Rioja. Recognising him, a young man stood up and began shouting: "What an awful smell of shit in here."
In the ensuing scuffle, Mr Menem punched the man in the face and the cabin crew had to place the men at opposite ends of the aircraft.
Mr Menem is not the only Argentine politician to feel the ire of a nation enduring its worst economic crisis in recent history. Passengers travelling to Europe recently complained about having to share a flight with Carlos Ruckauf, the foreign minister.
Raul Alfonsin, a former president who brought Argentina back to democracy in 1983, endured shouts of "thief" and "give back the money" from an angry crowd outside his house, prompting the septuagenarian to confront his accusers in a messy brawl.
Fernando de la Rua and Domingo Cavallo - respectively former president and economy minister - are so fearful for their safety that they have not appeared in public since they were swept from power in December.
Their pictures appear with those of other politicians from all parties on "wanted" posters pasted around the capital.
All over Argentina, politicians - regardless of their party affiliation or record - are hounded out of restaurants, shopping malls, bars and cafes by angry patrons. Such treatment was once reserved for army officers after the end of the last military government, under which up to 30,000 died.
The "political class", as it is called in Argentina, is now blamed for the nation's century-long decline from the world's seventh-richest nation to an economic basket-case.
Other branches of the state are no safer. Supreme court justices face so many protests outside their homes and courts that one has filed a complaint claiming deprivation of liberty.
Alarmed by this apparent loss of faith in Argentina's institutions, the Pope recently issued a warning that the country's democracy could be in peril. "Your country is experiencing a profound social and economic crisis that affects the whole of society, and places democratic stability and the public institutions in danger," he wrote to the Argentine church this month.
Public rage over a bankrupt state, soaring unemployment and the disappearance of people's savings in a banking crisis toppled two governments in December. Many wonder how long Eduardo Duhalde, the current president, can survive in office.
Should his government fall, few can predict what would come next. "Duhalde represents the last chance for traditional politics in Argentina," says Rosendo Fraga, a political analyst. The looming political vacuum has stirred fears of a return to Argentina's authoritarian past, unthinkable just three months ago.
Already one maverick former colonel, Mohamed Ali Seineldin, in jail for leading a failed coup in 1990, has launched a campaign to become president. Graffiti calling for his release have appeared in Buenos Aires.
Talk of a return of the military has been so widespread that the head of the army was forced to dismiss the idea. "There is no military option," said Lieutenant General Ricardo Brinzoni in a recent interview with La Nacion newspaper. "The country's problems must be resolved by the politicians."
People who know the military well say Lt Gen Brinzoni's declarations are in earnest - the military has no desire to be consumed by the economic and political crisis.
A more pressing fear is that a collapse of public institutions could lead to the sort of anarchy witnessed in December, when shops were looted and the Congress set alight.
Anarchy could force the government to renew December's state of emergency. Then, the government suspended constitutional rights and called on the non-military security forces to quash dissent.
"There is the risk that [the protests] could evolve into a spiral of violence, making it necessary to impose order, because people do not tolerate anarchy," Mr Duhalde said.
MOJO-JOJO
(02/27/02; 02:45:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 70802)
black blades statements regarding unemployment rate
black blade, you had posted an interesting article several days ago about the unemployment rate being mis-stated due to several factors. I found this post very interesting, and was wondering if you could provide me with some links for more info.
Belgian
(02/27/02; 01:51:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 70801)
The Stock Market
The present strength, falsely displayed, in stock valuations is not only irrational but "obscene" ! It is the strongiest evidence of the dollar having lost **ALL CREDIBILITY** ! Virtual worthless fiat that desparately scrambles for a (any) tangible. This happens against the background of the Enron **SHOW**. Cargos of dollars are zigzagging for substance, preferably the wrong one (stocks-bonds). When one is holding so much paper (dollar-fiat) that has been abandoned STEALTHLY, irrationality is on the order of the day. It is 1971 all over again ! Too much dollars and nothing against it. NOTHING but artificial wind. The DRAMA in its essence. Take care and anticipate the coming 1971 lesson, NOW.
Waverider
(2/27/02; 00:28:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 70800)
Vietnam becomes one of SE Asia's biggest gold consumers
http://home.kyodo.co.jp/all/display.jsp?an=20020226191
Snippit:
"Vietnam's demand for gold set a new record in 2001 for the third successive year, with the country consuming 73 tons of gold, 13 tons more than in 2000, the official Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported on Tuesday.
VNA quoted the World Gold Council (WGC) as saying earlier this month in its annual report on gold demand trends that Vietnam, with a year-on-year increase of 22%, registered the highest growth in demand in Southeast Asia and became one of the region's biggest gold consumers.
The London-based council, which called Vietnam the ''star performer'' in Southeast Asia last year, attributed the growth in demand for gold there last year partly to a strong fourth quarter economic performance.
The report said interest rates on currency assets remained uninvitingly low while domestic wage growth was strong. Increasing disposable income propelled jewelry demand, it said, adding that investment buying was also strong due to growing demand for gold bars for use in property transactions."
Waverider: Vietnam is a country of 80 million people. Who would have thought...and Gold bars used for property transactions.
Jin-Yin
(2/27/02; 00:11:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70799)
RobotGuy, et. al
Thanks for the welcome. I have sat at this table round before. My current handle is a new hat. Fits well and hopefully will not get me the hook again.
Yes, indeed, this is the best forum to hit the Internet. The friendly posters and the trail make it what it is along with USAGOLD and its host, which funds it.
Spent a lot of time at other investment sites and discussion boards trying to get the trail worn with a wider path. Posted links to this site, but sadly I think it went largely unnoticed. Some interest but way too much ignorance on the subject of gold, fiat money and oil. When the majorities’ reasoning power is short-circuited by the media, any alternative explanation for current affairs is seen with derision and contempt if not, at times, highlighting their lack of emotional intelligence. It is an uphill battle with family. Any advice other than keeping one's lips zipped?
Again thanks and hope to add useful information from time to time.
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