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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/27/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
TEX
(9/27/01; 23:56:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 62546)
Jokers at Kitco
The chart dudes at Kitco really kill me. I usually go the the main page that has the small chart in the upper right side. Well, tonight some joker put the spot prices at 20 cent increments so it looks like gold has shot up really high at first glance. Oh well, it could have been worse by going down when I logged on. Geeezzzzzz........
MarkeTalk
(9/27/01; 23:50:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62545)
Muslim appeals to President Bush to convert to Islam
http://www.foryourglory.org
Now if this just doesn't beat all! The following quotation from the Chairman of the Islamic Movement in Israel, Sheihk Ra'ed Salah, was published in the Israeli Maariv newspaper:
"You [America] have put a man on the moon, but you have not brought happiness and security to your nation or others. The road to happiness, to security and to peace is Islam, and I therefore call upon you [President Bush] to convert to Islam, so that justice, tolerance and brotherhood can be realized between the nations and the religions."
The above-cited passage is from yesterday's Special Jerusalem Report which can be accessed at the above-referenced link. The editor of the report goes on to explain what Sheihk Salah really meant by his appeal to President Bush (and America). "Islam is the means by which there will be world happiness, security and peace. This is fundamental Islamic doctrine. You must also understand that when Islamic clerics are declaring that they are against the killing of 'innocent people', they know very well what they are saying--most Americans do not. The ONLY innocent people according to Islam are Muslims. NO 'infidels' (non-Muslims) are innocent. I was reminded of this doctrine yesterday by three differenct sources from the academic (university level) and intelligence community in our nation."
Comment: More and more it appears that this showdown in the Middle East is fundamentally between the forces of the Christian West and the forces of Islam. Actually, this has been an ongoing struggle ever since Islamic forces tried to conquer Spain in the 700s when it took Charlemagne to stop them in the French Alps. I believe it was the battle of Tours in 732. Then in the 1400s the Turks under the Ottoman Empire swept up through the Balkans and got as far as the gates of Vienna where a fierce battle ensued. That episode sowed the seeds of the present-day war in the Balkans. Now the stakes are higher and the weapons more deadly. How long do you suppose it will be before the our allies, the Gulf Arab states, side with their Muslim brethren being attacked by the U.S.-led coalition forces and then "play the oil card"?
GC
Beer Man
(9/27/01; 23:48:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62544)
*******The world today is a different place today than it was 9/10/01 *****
False, the bedrock, the foundation on which all else is built has not changed for 1,000's of years, I don't see it changing for 1,000's more! #1 There are only two kinds of people in this world, people who own gold & people who wish they did! #2 Economic law like the laws of physics, are the foundation on which all else is built. No amount of blood,tears or wishes will ever change that. #3 Human history is full of atrocities & misery that make 9/11/01 look like a drop in the bucket. #4 Many societies, including our own ( Pearl Harbor ) have failed to be aware of danger at their door & paid a heavy price for it. It could have been from arrogance, ignorance, poor leadership, nature ( Mt. St. Helens ) or poor judgment. Human nature sometimes prevents some of us from appropriate action even when faced with clear warnings of danger ( manipulators ). #5 Someone in the 60's once said " all the world over it's so easy to see people everywhere just want to be free ", I don't think the american people are ready to give up freedom just yet. Gold = Freedom!!! #1 There are only two kinds of people in this world, people who own gold & people who wish they did!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! May all your wish's come true-Beer Man
Black Blade
(9/27/01; 23:28:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 62543)
Gold bulls coaxed out by whiff of fear
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,936541-6094-0,00.html
Snippit:
PROSPECTS of a protracted war and fear of possible inflation have meant that the long-lost gold bulls are slowly but surely creeping out of the woodwork as global market uncertainty prevails and the rand brushes new lows against the dollar. Among the analysts rethinking their view of gold is Mitsui Global Precious Metals' Andy Smith, who was one of the metal's most ardent detractors, expecting gold to languish under the $300/oz level for some time. That was before the terrorist attacks on the US and the subsequent market turmoil. Now Smith has a three-month target of $340 per ounce. Gold was trading at around $290 per ounce yesterday.
Black Blade: There are many constants in nature, among them - the sky is blue, water runs down hill, the sun rises in the east and Andy Smith is an immovable perennial Gold Bear. Now the whole fabric of nature is torn - Now I am scared.
BR549
(9/27/01; 22:40:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 62542)
Sorry about the double post
My mouse misfired
BR549
(9/27/01; 22:35:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62541)
The first WAR of the 21st Century.
Ht
Money Laundering
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO7ONKBSyVS5TLiBT
"The Justice Department's proposed money-laundering restrictions ``will contribute to our ability to choke off the money supply to terrorist organizations,'' Ashcroft said. Much of the legislation was twice passed by the House crime subcommittee in the last five years ``with overwhelming bipartisan support.''
One proposal would make it a crime to launder the proceeds of foreign crimes in U.S. banks and empower courts to freeze the assets of accused terrorists while they are awaiting trial, Ashcroft said.
Current law allows for forfeiture of assets after conviction. The proposal would prevent accused terrorists from transferring money to associates while on trial, the attorney general said. "
Bad news for the economy of Cornfield County. The local crop duster flight training school reports that six new students tuition checks have bounced and they were expelled. Their rental cars were taken away along with their dormitory privileges. Last time they were seen they were hitchhiking out of town on the four lane.
BR549
This new war of the world alliance against terrorists is being fought differently than any other war before. There is a two pronged attack against murderer's, cowards, and "the so called misguided warriors" whom are a threat to the world's freedom and way of life. The economic war along with alternative phase of military war will take years and much sacrifice.
The idiocy of the "60's pink eyed liberal mentality" of some is that whatever action the World Alliance does take to eradicate terrorism, will only bring about more death, destruction, and retribution to whomever counteracts the actions of world terrorism, i.e., so don't do it.
The first effective victories have already been fought and won on the economic front. Millions of dollars of criminal's funds are being severed but there are millions left to be identified from the "so called misguided" terrorists sponsors. In any war, there will be victories for both sides to the detriment of the other. Because one side wins a victory over the other and escalates the fight is a poor excuse to not fight for a victory over world terrorism? How can any civilized person excuse the previous or future actions of world terrorists?
According to that genius Donald Rumsfeld, do not expect an instant retaliation on the military prong of this war. As equities types have said for the stock market bulls in a bear market and for some gold investors, "you must stay in for the long term. The eradication of terrorism will not be a short term project.
The World Alliance must balance the need to destroy their advocates’ exuberance and support to take military action now before more innocent citizens from around the world are murdered and the need to formulate a workable game plan for total victory. The cruise missiles need to be recalibrated for accuracy, logistics must be formulated, genuine alliances must be cemented, and military targets need to be specified.
The preservation of the world alliance victory is the highest priority of all and so to those of us who are anxious for something to happen immediately, we must all be patient. The real war will not be fought against Islam or bin Laden (a small time rich cowardly thug), but against the terror sponsoring countries of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Syria, and terror cells throughout the world. For every dollar of funds that can extracted from the terrorist's cash flow by our new best friends the banks, the more lives can be saved in the long term.
So let's be patient, although some grow restless to begin the second phase of the eradication of world terrorism immediately.
Meanwhile, I suggest get out of paper and accumulate physical because it will probably get a lot worse before it gets better.
BR549
auspec
(9/27/01; 21:51:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62540)
C.M.
Looks like you have a spare $1,500? Hope you can at least get some metal for it.
a
Black Blade
(9/27/01; 21:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62539)
Japan Unemployment at Record 5 Pct.
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010927/japan_unemployment_2.html
Japan's Unemployment Rate Stays at Record-High 5 Percent in August
Snippit:
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's unemployment rate stayed a record 5 percent in August, the government said Friday, amid growing fears the struggling economy will take a turn for the worse after the terrorist attacks in the United States. Japan recorded its worst ever unemployment rate of 5 percent in July, the highest since the government began keeping track in 1953.
Black Blade: Going Global with nonessential Japanese "Bones" added to the "Bone Pile."
Black Blade
(9/27/01; 21:34:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62538)
Attacks Weakened Job Market, Future Grim
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010927/business_economy_jobless_dc_5.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans lining up for first-time jobless benefits reached its highest level in more than nine years last week as U.S. labor markets, already hurt by a sinking economy, suffered a fresh blow from the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.
Black Blade: More tales from the "Bone Pile." There's that word again - "GRIM"
Cavan Man
(9/27/01; 21:18:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 62537)
BB & Stranger
Investments
1. Physical AU
2. CX
3. AHC
4. P
5. UCL
6. MRO
7. XOM
8. TOT
9. TDW
The reasons for owning gold are purely monetary: always have been. Regards....CM
auspec
(9/27/01; 21:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62536)
MarkeTalk
Thanks for your keen insight into the timing of events directly ahead. Plan on there being a RESPONSE to US action in Afghanistan or elsewhere. This is no one sided affair as 9-11-01 clearly demonstrated. Likely response? Muslim country attacked {like Gulf War}, Israel targeted by Muslim country. I hate to even think about what other responses will be, but they will come. Forget the airplanes, they are yesterday's news and vulnerabilities. Terrorists find a weak link and one always seems to exist. This will be a particularly irrational war, imho, hatred is beyond rationality.
Here's an equation for all: The more draconian the war action taken the more severe the 'medicine' that US public will be forced to swallow. How{e} big of a scapegoat is needed???
P.S. Hey Cavan man
Black Blade
(09/27/01; 21:01:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62535)
RE: Stranger - of Bears and Depressions, etc.
Hi there! We don't get to see you here much anymore. Speaking of "Bear" stories we haven't seen Koan in many moons either. I certainly haven't given up on all investments in the stock market. We probably should look very hard at very selective investments at this time of uncertainty (Gold being one). I would like to see a repost of an old article about the performance of Homestake Mining (as a gold proxy when physical gold was illegal) during the Great Depression. I think MK did one in an old issue of "News and Views." Could be an "Interesting" article now with many possible correlations to what might be in the near future. Of course didn't those who invested in the market prior to the Great Depression have to wait several years to recover their losses? I guess if we knew when and where the "bottom" is we could make out quite well. Cheers!
BTW, don't make a stranger out of yourself - uh …. errr …. Sorry ;-) Maybe I'll see you at the "Dead Goat Saloon" one of these days.
- Black Blade
Netking
(09/27/01; 20:58:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 62534)
M.E. Cont.
www.debka.com
To follow on from Marketalk post, this from Debka intelligence blends in to what George said;
-Arafat-Peres meeting Wednesday in Gaza fails amid thunder of gun battle around IDF termit position near Egyptian frontier crossing
-They cancel joint press appearance and aides issue bland Statement
-Israel tanks were brought into Rafah after five israeli troops were injured – 1 seriously - from explosion in
secret tunnel dug under termit position by men under command of PA security chief dahlan.
------------------------------------------------------------
Sir darkhorse - Have a look also at post #62508.
- Netking
Mythical
(9/27/01; 20:56:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62533)
Oops!
MK & Randy, while catching up on some posts and in a moment of excitement and haste, I posted a contest entry that is clearly past the entry deadline. I humbly sumbit a sincere apology for not reading the guidelines before posting. I hereby withdraw my entry. Apologies to all!
darkhorse
(9/27/01; 20:42:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 62532)
Anybody seen this Egyptian calendar
http://www.watch.org/linkstat.php3?idx=17458&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsmax.com%2Farchives%2Farticles%2F2001%2F9%2F27%2F124953.shtml
The September page shows a plan flying into lower Manhattan; it was printed three months before the attack.
The Stranger
(9/27/01; 20:38:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62531)
The Boston Globe Got It Wrong
Black Blade - As always, I greatly appreciate the work you do around here. You are an enormous asset to the forum.
The Globe article you presented tonight starts out with a statement which I dispute. To wit: "During the Great Depression, when stock prices fell 86 percent over three years, investors were so scarred by the experience that they avoided the stock market for a generation."
The truth is that at the end of the three years in question (late 1929 to late 1932) the Dow Jones Industrial Average set off on one of the century's greatest bull markets. In just over four years, it soared from 40 to 200, a gain of 400%. It might surprise some to learn that this Depression-era performance even eclipsed the gain made by the Dow during the entire decade of the 90s. Yet the 90s were a period many of us consider to have been a bubble.
Granted, many people probably did let their fears stand in the way of participating in the market back then. But to say that investors in general avoided stocks for a whole generation flies in the face of the record.
If there is a point to all of this, perhaps it is that no investment applies to every season, even though some come a lot closer to this than do others. The key to knowing what to buy and when to buy it, of course, is to read, read, read. And even then one must keep his fingers crossed.
Thanks.
Cavan Man
(9/27/01; 20:32:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 62530)
Invisible Hand & Marke Talk
Forgetting about Jews and Christians and Muslims and "new moons" and old moons etc.; not to mention eschatological preoccupation, I can indeed discuss "GRIM" having just returned from a memorial service for a family member lost on 9-11. Along the way, I happened to take a close look at a map of the world in the neighborhood of Afghanistan. I am compelled to say to you both and any others who read this to please turn to Jesus Christ and beg for His Mercy.
"Lord Jesus Christ, Son of God, have mercy upon me a sinner". (Buy gold from CPM and return to the Church.)..CM
Mythical
(9/27/01; 20:28:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 62529)
#### $289.20 ####
Nice to see so many new posters come out and show some "patriotism" toward the ultimate form of wealth. Unfortunately, TPTB still have a short leash on this puppy and certainly wouldn't want Gold to stray to far going into the weekend. I look for the PPT to finesse the paper price down (late in the session no doubt) to show that they're still in control. IMHO of course!
BR549
(9/27/01; 20:23:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62528)
Another victory in the economic war against terrorism
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO7ONKBSyVS5TLiBT
Money Laundering
"The Justice Department's proposed money-laundering restrictions ``will contribute to our ability to choke off the money supply to terrorist organizations,'' Ashcroft said. Much of the legislation was twice passed by the House crime subcommittee in the last five years ``with overwhelming bipartisan support.''
One proposal would make it a crime to launder the proceeds of foreign crimes in U.S. banks and empower courts to freeze the assets of accused terrorists while they are awaiting trial, Ashcroft said.
"Current law allows for forfeiture of assets after conviction. The proposal would prevent accused terrorists from transferring money to associates while on trial, the attorney general said. "
Bad news for the economy of Cornfield County. The local crop duster flight training school reports that six new student's tuition checks have bounced and they were expelled. Their rental cars were taken away along with their dormitory privileges. Last time they were seen, they were hitchhiking out of town on the four lane.
BR549
The Invisible Hand
(9/27/01; 20:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62527)
The gold miracle of straightforward biblical symbolism
******The World is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01*****
It has been historically demonstrated that some events give rise to new forces which we can't/couldn't comprehend in advance. The last worldwide economic crisis, in the nineteen thirties resulted in the economic policy of President Roosevelt, with his New Deal, and World War II gave rise to the German Economic Miracle (Wirtschaftswunder) thanks to the recognition of property right in post-war Germany. … This time, it will also come to a New Deal. …"This terrible turn of events displays indeed straightforward biblical symbolism" said Middle East specialist Peter Scholl-Latour. (LEUSCHEL, R., "Het Einde van de Pretmaatschappij,", De Financieel Economische Tijd, 15 September 2001, http://www.tijd.be/articles/dossiers/20010917/tijdnet16981781.ihtm )
WHERE DO WE COME FROM?
When journalists asked Ernest Bevin upon his appointment as minister for foreign affairs of the first British post-war Labour government to make a wish, he sighed: "I wish that I could again put a few gold coins in my pocket and buy a train ticket in Victoria station and could leave without any further formalities to wherever the devil wanted to send me." At the threshold of the rationing which he would help institute, this working-class lad remembered his childhood years, the period before World War I, when the gold standard created a period of freedom and progress in the civilised world. Present generations cannot imagine what kind of freedom there was then. (MONTEYNE, A., "Goud en Geld – Een Munt voor Europa’, Wommelgem, Den Gulden Engel, 1987, p.11)
Economic historians are not in agreement on whether the world economy had begun to unravel by 1914, but unravel during the war it certainly did. … The war disrupted the old competitive economy. … In a sense the interwar period can be divided into two parts. From 1918 to 1930 states sought to restore the economy in the image of that which had existed before the war. After the onset of the Great Depression they turned from essentially negative measures to drastically positive ones. The result was economic nationalism that must be accounted one of the major consequences of World War II (PALMER, N.D., & PERKINS, H.C., "International Relations", Cambridge, Massachusetts, The Riverside Press, 1957, 2nd ed., p.154) which delivered the coup de grace to a system already severely weakened. (PALMER, N.D., & PERKINS, H.C., op. cit., p.577)
WHERE WERE WE BEFORE 911?
Before 911, all our hope rested with the European Union and its new currency which should be materialised next January.
For the European Union, the establishment of the internal market and of the common market are fundamentally important for the achievement of the European Union whose Treaty describes the internal market as an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured in accordance with the provisions of the Treaty
In its R v Johnson case of 1978, the European court of Justice held that capital has been defined as means of payment and thus includes foreign gold coins but not silver coins which are no longer legal tender.
This seems to mean that before 911, the European Union provided a gold friendly environment. Although it is not optimal, it could allow Another and FOA to expose on www.usagold.com how the Giants view gold's role within the European Union.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
I am not sure, but I think that the US of A and Europe are in a state of war because of what happened on 911. This seems to be a situation analogous to World War I which was the death knell of the gold standard. Moreover, we would face a new New Deal. A quick internet search brings up http://www.bergen.org/AAST/Projects/depression/successes.html , a page designed to outline the Successes (if any) and Failures of Roosevelt's New Deal Programmes. It lists the programmes, called "alphabet soup", feverishly created by President Roosevelt when he took office in 1933 to give relief, create jobs, and stimulate economic recovery for the US of A. To list some: creation of the FDIC, the FERA, the NIRA, the SEC, the National Labor Relations Act (Wagner Act) and the Social Security Act.
All of this does not bode well for the economy. If history is any guide, it shouldn't bode well for gold either.
A click of the mouse on www.usagold.com, www.gata.org and www.goldensextant.com will however teach you that not only will the bullion banks be unable to respect their contracts without sending the POG skywards, but also that on 109 some of these banks will together with the Bank of International Settlements, the Fed and the Treasury appear in the Boston District Court to be condemned to let gold move higher than to the sky. This will be the gold miracle of straightforward biblical symbolism. Come on, guys and gals, ideas result in actions and actions result in changes. As Mises put it, "There is but one yardstick for the appraisal of human action: whether or not it is fit to attain the ends aimed at by acting man". (VON MISES, L., "Human Action", Chicago, Contemporary Books, 1963, 3rd rev. ed., p.193)
The Invisible Hand
migrator@www.cz
MarkeTalk
(9/27/01; 19:47:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62526)
Events in Israel and possible time line for America's attack
After reading key reports, watching various TV documentaries as well as Nightline, and then thinking long and hard about when we will respond, I have come up with a possible time line for America's initial response. Because this showdown with Afghanistan and/or Iraq really involves Israel as well as America, consideration should be given to the Jewish calendar since the Muslim terrorists have been known to strike on key days that are significant and/or holy to the Jews. To begin with, today is Yom Kippur which is the holiest day in the Jewish year. In 1973, this day marked the beginning of an Arab attack on Israel. Today, however, so far no terrorist attack here or abroad.
This coming weekend might be the time for the U.S. to respond but I am leaning more towards next week. The next key date is Monday, October 1 which is the Feast of Succot or Tabernacles, which commemorates the time the Israelites built tabernacles in the wilderness after Moses led them out of Egypt. In essence, it is another celebration of Israel occupying the land which the Palestinians say belongs to them. If there is an attack against Israel, the celebration of this day could trigger it. It is also the beginning of fiscal year 2002 for the U.S. government--an interesting coincidence.
Tuesday, October 2nd just happens to be a full moon. Lunar cycles have played important roles in markets and world events. We will have to wait and see on this one. Thursday, October 4th--the third day of the Feast of Tabernacles--is a real humdinger for the following reason. I received a fax today informing me that Gershon Solomon and the Temple Mount Faithful movement in Israel plan on symbolically laying the cornerstone for the Third Temple. This historic event will take place at 9:30 am Jerusalem time and has the approval of Israeli authorities and will be protected by security forces. What they plan on doing is meeting at the Western Wall plaza and then marching to the Temple Mount where they will pray. Following that they will march to the front of the southern gates of the Temple Mount where they will anoint the two cornerstones and present plans for building the Third Temple. They will pray the same prayers that King Solomon prayed when he dedicated the First Temple. It will end by marching to the Pool of Siloam where, in olden times, water was drawn out and poured out on the altar in the temple.
We have to remember that it was Ariel Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount last year on September 28th which sparked the present Palestinian "intifada." The Temple Mount Faithful had planned last year on laying the cornerstone but the event was cancelled at the last minute. However, this year the event appears to be on track for fulfillment--unless cancelled at the last minute. What I see happening is another round of intifada despite the the present shaky ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians. This will lead to more hostilities and eventually disrupt any coalition that President Bush has built with the Arab states against Ossama bin Laden.
From a purely logistical viewpoint, Afghanistan lies in the Himalaya mountain range at around 10,000 to 12,000 feet. Winter comes early to these mountains and it could arrive as soon as October 15th. America does not want to repeat the same mistakes the Soviets did during their campaign by fighting during winter. Accordingly, my best guess is that U.S. troops will be ready to bomb and invade by October 5th unless they want to wait until October 16th when the next new moon will give them full protection of darkness.
So what is the bottom line here? In my estimation, as soon as either the shaky ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians breaks down or the U.S. attacks against Afghanistan (and possibly Iraq) begin, then we shall see the price of gold skyrocket. The initial $20 jump after the WTC and Pentagon attacks will pale by comparison. We here at Centennial were swamped with phone calls two weeks ago. I think it is about to get even busier. If you have been putting off buying your gold, you will be sorry for procrastinating. Gold will become only more expensive and scarcer. Let these words be sufficient to those who are wise.
Black Blade
(9/27/01; 19:28:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 62525)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
This time it looks as even the Canadians want to get in on the fun and toss 9,000 nonessential Canadian "Bags O' Bones" upon the ever-growing "Bone Pile." Yesterday's unemployment numbers were higher than expected. Guess what? Those numbers are data accumulated prior to the WTC and Pentagon terrorist attacks! We know how much the "Bone Pile" has grown since then. The next unemployment number release will play heavily on consumer confidence. The result will likely be more severe losses on Wall Street and a Full Blown Recession that will make the 1970's pale in comparison and could even rival the severity of the Great Depression. Protection with Gold, Silver, and very selective investing. This economy is a virtual minefield - In a word "GRIM"
- Black Blade
Netking
(9/27/01; 19:26:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 62524)
The line being drawn in the sand?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/0109/28/world/world3.html
"Western society superior to Islam", says Italy's Berlusconi
Snippet:
"Italy's Prime Minister, Mr Silvio Berlusconi, has gone out of his way to stress what every other leader backing America's "war on terrorism" is desperate to deny - that the looming conflict is, at bottom, a clash of civilisations.
Three times during a lightning visit to Berlin on Wednesday, Mr Berlusconi enthusiastically proclaimed views that will appal Western leaders and confirm the worst suspicions of many Muslims. He boasted of the "supremacy" and "superiority" of Western civilisation and called on Europe to recognise its "common Christian roots . . . "
Black Blade
(9/27/01; 19:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 62523)
Hard lessons of a bear market
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/270/business/Hard_lessons_of_a_bear_market+.shtml
Snippit:
During the Great Depression, when stock prices fell 86 percent over three years, investors were so scarred by the experience that they avoided the stock market for a generation.
During the bear market of 1973-74, when the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 48 percent over two years, investors lost their appetite for stocks for a decade.
So how about now?
The truth is this bear market has been pretty brutal. It has gone on for 18 months and moved through several stages: There was the dot-com collapse stage, the fears of recession stage, and the post-terrorist attack stage.
Black Blade: Just wait until the quarterly statements arrive in investors mailboxes. I suggest that most will sit out the next several months and others will run for the exits, some will even - Gulp! - accumulate Gold and Silver! This market crash and Deepening Recession will only get much much worse. Hard assets such as Gold and Silver are definitely in order as portfolio insurance. It is going to get very ugly before it gets any better. Sure there will be sucker rallies as before, but the markets are likely to continue the downward see-saw action we have seen in past Recessions and during the Great Depression. Hang on for the ride. We live in "Interesting Times."
Oh yeah, PMs performed very well during these past events - do we learn from history? Or do we shrug our shoulders and say "it's different this time." - HA!
USAGOLD
(9/27/01; 19:08:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 62522)
Poor Old Solomon. . . .
Michelle Ashby, who heads up the Denver Gold Group, is a close personal friend and one of the finest people we have in the gold industry. Her annual events are the toughest ticket in town when in progress. I have had several people call over the years asking if I could pull a favor to get them in but I would never impose on the gracious (and astute) lady of the gold business. This will be a major event (as it always is) with ramifications rippling through the gold community.
You are right:
Andy Smith's change of heart is an indicator (and will come up in more than one conversation). His carefully worded comments are also an indication that the big players are cleaning up their loan books, as I have been saying would be the case all along. Besides some manageable gold loan portfolios, in the end all that will be left are some very large derivative positions against which certain players will be required to take some very hefty losses. This is all still just post-Washington Agreement Traumatic Syndrome, and by the way we can thank those signatories for this long chain of events. Once the gold carry trade book is balanced to reality, there is no reason to remain bearish -- publicly or otherwise. As it relates to all of this, I should mention that I was astonished by the gap between gold mine production and demand as it was published here over the past few days -- if I saw it right it was close to 1500 tonnes. They'll not only be talking about Andy Smith in Denver next week; they'll be talking about "The Gap." And only price can bridge it. I have inveighed for years that the best way to beat the gold fixers is to buy the physical metal and sit back watch the show. That hasn't changed and we should not let up.
My dear wizardrous friend, Gandalf the White, please get the Hobbits to settle down. . . Quiet now. . .I believe the show's about to begin.
My best wishes, Poor Old Solomon, and many thanks for your steady and thoughtful presence here.
Solomon Weaver
(9/27/01; 18:34:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 62521)
MK - can you get free seats at this event???
If so, I would consider taking the day off and sitting there with you.
Next week, top executives from Gold Fields (GOLD: news, chart), Newmont,
Homestake, Barrick Gold (ABX: news, chart) and several dozen other large
producers will meet at the Investment Forum gathering of metals executives in
Denver. The event, sponsored by The Denver Gold Group, brings fund managers
together with executives and bankers. They are sure to be discussing Smith's
comments.
.. . . . . . . . .
You at least should be able to get a Press Pass since you write a widely read daily Gold Report.
POS
nickel62
(9/27/01; 18:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62520)
Midas new comment...very good summary I think!
GOTCHA GOLD CARTEL, GOTCHA
The United States has made it clear the past couple of weeks that the G-10 central banking community is going to maintain stability in the financial markets.
It could not be more obvious that they are doing just that. They are keeping gold below $292. The stock market recovers miraculously every day with the Dow trading above where it re-opened a week ago Monday. The dollar has gained ground since its early bashing after the terrorists attack in the U.S.
You can be sure Robert Rubin instructed Congress what had to be done during his visits to Washington. After all, it was he who created the gold and interest rate volatility bombs and he wants to save his butt. Rubin knows what the financial ramifications are of what he created. The only way to keep the derivative bombs from blowing now is to calm down the financial markets. That can be done by holding up the stock market, intervening to keep the dollar strong and keeping gold below $300.
Great free market system we have here in America.
If they did this during crisis times only, it would be fine. But, as we all know, one thing leads to another - then, before you know it, there is no free market. That is what happened to gold.
Without rehashing everything again, the big problem for Gold Czar Rubin and The Gold Cartel is that they are going to run out of physical gold to keep the gold scam going. That could happen at ANY TIME!!!
I would love to be on the fly on the wall and catch Robert Rubin's expression when this shows up:
CNSNews.com) - Make way for a new "Spirit of America" coin commemorating victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. House Republican Conference Chairman J.C. Watts (R-Okla.) and Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) said they plan to introduce a bill creating a coin depicting the American flag, the Pentagon and the World Trade Center towers. "This coin will serve not only as a reminder of the tragedies inflicted upon our nation, but more importantly, capture forever the spirit of American - one of a united people whose belief in freedom has never swayed," said Watts in a statement. The legislation would authorize the U.S. Treasury to mint a limited number of gold coins and an unlimited number of silver and clad coins, with all proceeds going to a fund for victims and their families.
-END-
One of the problems GATA has had over the years in explaining our position is that much of the evidence is very complicated for Joe and Jane public. Swirls my head part of the time.
Finally, an article has surfaced in the public domain that ties together much of what the GATA camp has presented about the size of the gold loans, etc. It is only a few paragraphs long, but says it all.
GATA has maintained all along that the US Treasury, Alan Greenspan, the bullion banks and the spokesmen for the gold industry have been disingenuous about the gold loans, with most just outright liars.
To set the scene: Café member Andrew H. sends us the following:
Bill,
If I'm not mistaken, the BIS official who was quoted by the FT said that ECB countries had lent approximately 2200 tonnes and that total lending amounted to 5200 tonnes. It might be a good idea to assume for a moment that he was telling the truth, at least from a technical perspective. From that, we know that total loans are 5200 tonnes. Added on to that would be all the swaps, repos and deposits that are still outstanding(i.e. the central bank that originally owned the gold hasn't recovered it).
One question that needs answering is the following: If a CB does a gold swap with a another CB, and the receiving CB sells the gold, has a loan taken place at all? >From my vantage point the answer is no, as only a swap and a subsequent on-sell have occurred. If this sort of activity was prevalent among central banks, many more thousands of tonnes could be added to the 5200 number offered by the BIS official. Effectively, 5200 tonnes is the floor level of total gold transactions that are not outright sales but where bullion leaves the vaults and enters the physical market.
I think deposits and repos would work in a somewhat similar manner(no loan taking place at all), though I'm not certain of that and will defer to the experts.
One more thing that I should mention. For every member country the IMF publishes their "Official Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity". The fourth asset listed for each country is "gold (including gold deposits and, if appropriate, gold swapped)" Only if gold swaps were somewhat pervasive would this even be listed. Moreover, both deposits and swaps were never included in the BIS officials estimates.
Best Regards,
Andrew
I think what Andrew says is straightforward. It is a way to account for GATA's claims that the gold loan loans are really two to three times that claimed by the gold industry spokesmen and the BIS. The gold swamps can account for the physical gold not counted in the official "gold loan" statistics.
That takes us to the IMF meeting in Santiago, Chile of October, 1999 for IMF members. Mike Bolser found the minutes of this meeting, part of which was dedicated to explaining how gold transactions should be accounted for. I call it the Gold Cartel's Manifesto.
Which brings us to Café member Steve Hickel, who somehow located the following story in The Manilla Bulletin. It basically a very dry Philippine business story - that is except for the last four paragraphs and if you are in the GATA camp.
Wednesday, 16 February 2000
BOP incurs $309-M deficit in January
By FIL C. SIONIL
For the first time since the currency crisis, the country's balance of payments (BOP) position yielded a deficit of $309 million for the month of January this year from a surplus of $298.28 in December 1999.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Officer-in-charge and Deputy Governor for bank supervision and examination Alberto Reyes said the BOP figure was mainly the change in net international reserves (NIR).
Reyes disclosed that NIR as of end January stood at $11.5 billion.
NIR refers to the gross international reserves (GIR) less BSP's short-term liabilities.
Despite this development, it still signals that the economy could be slowly perking-up.
A declining BOP as well as current account position is an indication that there are more business activities, particularly import demands.
Last year, the BOP netted a surplus $3.839 billion, more than double the $1.359 billion surplus posted the previous year.
On the other hand, Reyes reported the country's GIR dropped to $14.78 billion for January compared to $15.1 billion registered in December last year.
At this level, the GIR can answer for about 4.3 months worth of country's import bills of goods and services.
Reyes traced the 2.2 percent decline in the GIR to the higher debt service payments of the national government for its maturing obligations.
In fact, the Estrada economic managers have already jacked up by almost 20 percent the national government's debt service payments for this year.
Based on the approved General Appropriations Act (GAA), the national government's debt service payments for its obligations falling due for this year stood at P127 billion, up by about P21 billion against the preliminary interest payments for 1999, placed at P106.3 billion.
Reyes explained that the lower GIR for the period in review was also due to the revised accounting of international reserves as recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) starting January of this year.
The IMF wants member countries like the Philippines to adhere to the new procedure, particularly relating to the new treatment of gold swap, gold under a swap arrangement with a non-central bank, remains to be part of reserves.
However, a liability is deemed incurred corresponding to the proceeds of the swap.
Before this, the arrangement was considered as sale of gold with commitment to repurchase.
-END-
GOTCHA GOLD CARTEL, GOTCHA
Simply put, gold that is swapped out and sold is still counted on the books of the Philippines which no longer has it. The Phlippines then has to record the liability of the transaction on its books. Yet, the gold remains as part of its reserves. So much for greater transparency in the financial markets.
As this became the new IMF Manifesto in October 1999, it indicates that is what all the central bankers are doing whose country is an IMF member.
That can explain how the GATA camp and Frank Veneroso come out with gold loan numbers of 10,500 to 16,500 tonnes; loans two to three times the estimates of the gold industry. All we have to do know is revise our terminology a bit and say tonnes of "loans/swaps."
This is the tidy little secret that the gold world is trying to keep everyone from finding out. But, alas, The Gold Cartel has been found out.
How do they wiggle out of this one? The world is changing fast. The Clinton "is" word meaning thing is no longer kosher.
Canuck
(9/27/01; 18:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 62519)
@ De Ronin
Welcome Sir (if you are new).
I saw your post the other day and meant to comment but got caught up with 'issues'. Yes, there is something fundamentally wrong with oil crashing and stocks rising.
Saw your post today. I was trying to explain to a work collegue today that if the 'terrorist' war degenerates into a all-out EAST/WEST, Muslim/Christian, we want oil/we have oil confrontation the sparks will fly. He was not following (as he doesn't follow gold) so I gave up. I tried him on the 'triangular' war in the mid-east (oil, religion, terror), any incorrect move could be disastrous.
Your posts are very interesting; please reflect your thinking as this plays out. The next few days/weeks will be ultra-interesting.
Canuck.
Netking
(9/27/01; 17:37:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62518)
Bomb blitz will 'shock and awe' the Taliban - US Defence
http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2001/09/27/wdef27.xml
Snippet:
"Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, gave the strongest indication yet that the war would have two aspects: a long, covert special forces campaign, possibly lasting years, and a huge air attack using the whole range of air power currently lining up against the Taliban.
He warned America not to expect a "quick fix" or "an antiseptic war". Mr Rumsfeld said: "Some stages will be visible, as in traditional conflict, and in other cases they will not be visible . . . "
-----------------------------------------------------------
"$500 POG will become a mere milestone" - Netking
sourdough
(9/27/01; 17:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62517)
Gee Whiz. which "paper" is the best?
September 28, 2001
Yen slips on another round of BOJ selling
S$ jumps and Aussie dives; Swiss franc sheds some refuge-currency gains
By
Larry Wee
THE Japanese yen slipped further after the Bank of Japan again sold it in Asian trading yesterday. And the Australian dollar fell sharply against the greenback and the Singapore dollar.
After trading steadily between S$1.7660 and S$1.7690 for most of the session, the greenback dived to a low of about S$1.76 just after 3 pm yesterday. The Australian dollar, meanwhile, had fallen about 2 per cent to 48.75 US cents and 85.87 Singapore cents by the Asian close.
Local players reported that a large US investment bank - rumoured to have executed a big order to buy the Australian dollar against the Singapore unit earlier this week - may have cashed out of remaining positions yesterday afternoon.
Elsewhere in Asian trading, most regional units finished little changed from Wednesday.
However, notable losers were the yen and the Indonesian rupiah.
The US dollar ended 0.2 per cent weaker at S$1.7615 and 92.27 US cents per euro, and 0.3 per cent off at US$1.4762 per pound sterling.
The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, again unleashed its firepower for the sixth time in less than a fortnight - pressing the US unit 0.7 per cent higher to a close of 118.67 yen, and clearing our target barrier of between 118.20 to 118.40 yen.
There was even some speculation that Japan's central bank could be gunning for a 120 yen fix per US dollar today - the cut-off point for Japan's fiscal half-year.
The idea would be to boost yen-denominated balance sheets badly hurt by the Nikkei collapse to lows not seen in up to 18 years. And such US dollar purchases face less opposition now that Japan's corporate and bank treasurers have all but stopped trading activity for the accounting close.
But we found no shortage of players who view this rally with extreme caution.
We would be inclined to reconsider our own scepticism only if the Bank of Japan continues to buy euros and US dollars as aggressively next week.
The Swiss franc, meanwhile, has retraced part of its refuge-currency gains since the horrific events of Sept 11. After rising as much as 7.2 per cent to a high of a 1.5665 per US dollar on Sept 21, it finished with a 0.4 per cent loss at 1.6061 yesterday - but this still leaves it 5.5 per cent stronger than on Sept 10.
Besides profit-taking after such handsome gains, there is some suggestion that the recent freezing of terrorists' accounts by the US could spill over into pressure on Swiss banks to release more details on secret accounts.
That pressure may lead to outflows which could, in turn, hurt the Swiss currency
lamprey_65
(9/27/01; 17:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 62516)
TheStranger
I about fell out of my chair yesterday upon hearing of Andy Smith's conversion to a gold bull...
As far as I'm concerned, it's a done deal now - Barrick and AngloGold have bought major producers and Andy is bullish.
Buckle up, folks...the ride is about to begin.
The Stranger
(9/27/01; 15:59:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 62515)
If This Has Already Been Posted, I Apologize
THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH
$340 gold seen by influential analyst
Mitsui's long-time bear Smith sees positive signs
By Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:43 PM ET Sept. 27, 2001
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Andy Smith, a veteran London-based metals analyst, sees
the price of gold hitting $340 an ounce in the next several months.
If Smith at Mitsui Global Precious Metals is correct, it would mark the first
time since June 1997 that gold has been as high as the mid-$300 range.
"I'm not a loose cannon," said Smith from London, where he has covered metals
and been mostly negative on gold for 14 years. "Gold is clearly on death's
door with the lack of interest, but these are not normal times."
FRONT PAGE NEWS
Dow reverses course, staging nice rally
Cheesecake Factory gains; Flextronics in deal with H-P
Bush tells nation: 'Get on board'
Attacks raise CNN profile, but force profit cut back
Smith's call for a higher gold price comes amid Wall Street and European
signs that professionals are ready to change their tune about the battered
metal, which is attempting to break the $300-an-ounce level. The price of an
ounce of gold in the spot market Thursday was little changed at about $290 in
New York.
Smith points to increased buying of gold coins in London in the wake of the
Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. There are reports of increased buying of gold
bars in Switzerland as well, he said Thursday. But it is aggressive hedge
funds, long absent from the gold market, that will take gold's price as much
as 15 percent higher in coming months, he says.
On the equity front, bullion analyst John Reade at UBS Warburg in London has
been talking up the metal in recent days, according to Bill Murphy, founder
of rabidly pro-gold Web site LeMetropoleCafe.com. Reade's comments may have
convinced UBS Warburg equity analyst Brian MacArthur to revise his rating on
Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart) this week to a "buy" from a "hold."
The UBS Warburg investment bank also raised its gold-price target to a
year-end $293 an ounce from $270. The metal commands more of a risk premium
after this month's terrorist attacks on American soil, the bank said.
Large U.S. mutual funds, some 90 percent of them with negative returns this
year, are also showing more of a willingness to increase their weighting of
gold mining stocks, such as Newmont Mining and Homestake Mining (HM: news,
chart), in their portfolios. The Vanguard Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX: news,
chart), for instance, now includes seven gold miners in its top 10, as of
Aug. 31. (See the Aug. 31 holdings.) Earlier this year, the fund had just
three gold mining stocks in its top 10 and relied instead on platinum,
palladium and diamond producers. (See the Jan. 1 holdings.)
Smith's comments, sent to Mitsui's institutional clients in the past several
days, are already turning heads in the gold trade.
"Andy is a very visible and well known professional in the gold financial
markets," said Cheryl Martin, vice president of North American investor
relations for Gold Fields Ltd. of South Africa, the third-largest gold
producer in the world. "Smith has been a consistent bear as the central banks
continued selling into the existing gold price weakness. To have him change
his outlook, so drastically, is a definite indicator to all of us in this
business," Martin said Thursday.
Ross Norman at TheBullionDesk.com in London said it was "rather shocking to
see Andy in the bulls' camp."
Next week, top executives from Gold Fields (GOLD: news, chart), Newmont,
Homestake, Barrick Gold (ABX: news, chart) and several dozen other large
producers will meet at the Investment Forum gathering of metals executives in
Denver. The event, sponsored by The Denver Gold Group, brings fund managers
together with executives and bankers. They are sure to be discussing Smith's
comments.
At Mitsui, Smith in an interview said there's been very little reason for him
to talk up gold's case in the past decade. Before Mitsui, Smith worked for 11
years at UBS in London. During much of that time, gold prices have been
declining as investment demand for the metal shriveled.
Smith points out that large holders of gold futures contracts on the Comex
commodities exchange in New York held a net long position of just 91 tons of
the metal - which he called "modest" against a backdrop of global financial
flows that surpass trillions of dollars a day in currency, equity and bond
markets.
"Gold has long stopped competing with the Swiss franc and other investments,"
Smith said. "But it doesn't have to compete in that league. All it needs now
is one or two (hedge) funds that are willing to earn some good returns."
He points to Julian Robertson's massive Tiger Investment hedge funds, which
spent years building up the case for - and their position in - palladium, a
metal that has benefited in recent years from Russian supply problems. "Over
a three-year period they built positions in palladium futures, options, even
(reputedly) equity, and established physical deals with suppliers and end
users," Smith points out. "Illiquid, boring, work-a-day palladium was
metamorphosed from under $100 in 1996 to $1,100 (an ounce), after Tiger had
closed its positions, in February this year."
Gold, says Smith, "has been relegated to a low echelon in the investing
universe." A wave of central bank sales - and even the unwillingness of the
usually pro-gold Swiss to recommend gold in international portfolios - sent
the price of the safe-haven metal earlier this year to a 12-year low.
"It is surreal that I have to argue this since I have been a dogged bear all
my career," says Smith. The analyst sees a temporary decline in physical
demand for the metal in the United States, where jewelry sales might slump
this holiday season because of gloomy consumers reacting to the terrorist
attacks.
Smith, who looks at prospects for the actual metal and not the gold-mining
stocks, also sees barriers in the form of ignorance by banks and individuals
who have "forgotten how to invest in gold." Yet he is confident gold will
soon break the $300 barrier, which has held in the immediate aftermath of the
terrorist attacks two weeks ago. The last time gold prices rose above $300 an
ounce was February 2000.
"I just don't underestimate the ingenuity of funds to make money in something
like gold," Smith says about international hedge funds. After gold surpasses
$340 an ounce, as soon as three months, individuals and institutions are
likely to jump on the "momentum" bandwagon, he says.
History of a move
Some eight years ago, hedge fund manager George Soros and Sir James Goldsmith
of London, using a combination of aggressive options contract buying, futures
trading and equity investments, helped to push gold prices above $340. It
took four years for the price of the metal to come back down to that level,
when a Federal Reserve economics paper suggested central banks might
rationally sell all their gold.
"You won't need a Soros or a Goldsmith now, just a smart fund or two, because
expectations for the metal are so low," Smith said.
Some 15 of the world's largest central banks regularly sell about 400 tons a
year of gold, which is then used by both producers and bullion banks in a
market dominated by forward sales, gold lending and other practices. The
lending and short-sales tied to central bank sales are said by industry
analysts to depress the metal's price.
Smith's comments, in a weekly report titled "A Probable Bull," prompted other
calls for higher prices. "You'd have to be nuts not to be positive on gold in
the current environment," said Robert Bishop at Gold Mining Stock Report in
Lafayette, Calif.
"It would be easy to laugh at Andy," said John Brimelow, a strategist at
Donald & Co., a New York City investment bank. "But the fact is that he has
been at least as good as anyone else in the past decade at forecasting gold
prices, and he is clearly a great deal brighter than most in the field."
SteveH
(09/27/01; 15:24:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 62514)
Protecting Gold ( a repost)
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=792
Airplanes and Property Protection
by Jeffrey Tucker
[Posted September 27, 2001]
The Bush administration has announced its support for "sky marshals" on
commercial aircraft, with the hope that an armed federal agent will deter
future hijackings. On the downside, however, the administration opposes the
easiest route of simply permitting the airlines to arm themselves and
thereby take responsibility for their own security. Once again, we are back
to trusting the government to protect us, even at a time when property
owners are begging for the right to provide their own protection.
The post-attack politicking, and the attempt to use the crisis to impose the
national security state at home and expand the military empire abroad, has
obscured a simple point: it all started with a multiple hijacking. This was
made possible not with grenades or heavy explosives but with box cutters-the
most dangerous weapon on board the hijacked planes. If the hijackers had
been stopped or even deterred, the twin towers would still be standing, and
there would be no war.
Before the attack, it was not generally known to the public that the crew
members of commercial jets were completely unarmed and thus vulnerable to
malicious persons on board. These planes are loaded with people who are
complete strangers to the owners and managers of the airline. It should have
been obvious that if the wrong person should gain control of the plane, the
airplane could be used as a weapon of war. If guns aren't necessary on
commercial airlines, they aren't necessary anywhere.
Technological advances have made available frangible bullets that injure and
even kill but do not harm the plane itself. Even a stun gun, which has also
been forbidden, would have done these terrorists in before they had the
chance to take total control of the aircraft and turn it into an instrument
of mass death. Security is clearly a good that passengers want to purchase,
and surely air carriers want to protect their property and customers.
Why were pilots unarmed, and still as of this writing? Because federal
regulations 14 Code of Federal Regulations section 108.11 only allow armed
planes with the approval of the FAA. The FAA doesn't approve, and, in fact,
hasn't approved any guns on plans since Nixon's "sky marshal" program was
ended in 1973. As Jane Garvey, the FAA administrator, told The New York
Times (September 25, 2001), guns on plans is an idea that "two weeks ago I
would not even have considered."
What an admission! So much for entrusting the federal government with our
security. We can't change the past, but surely, the regulation will be
repealed now. As David Kopel of the Independence Institute notes, this "is
the only reform-unlike the panoply of freedom-restricting measures currently
being promoted by the Department of Transportation-that actually would have
foiled the September 11 acts of war."
As Brad Rohdenburg, American Airlines captain from Meredith, N.H., wrote in
The Wall Street Journal (September 21, 2001):
How utterly absurd that thousands can be murdered with boxcutters. The
airport security procedures mandated since Sept. 11 wouldn't have prevented
it, and won't deter it from happening again. They don't do much but
inconvenience passengers and increase costs. And now every copy-cat crazy in
the world knows how much damage can be done with an airplane. Pilots aren't
allowed to carry so much as a Swiss Army knife any longer, but an Internet
search for ceramic and composite knives will show what terrorists can still
easily smuggle aboard an aircraft. What are we supposed to do then, hit them
with our purses?
I'm told by my airline's flight office that the FAA feels pilots shouldn't
have weapons because "they might be taken away and used." Well, what if our
airplanes are taken away and used? If we make ourselves helpless, we've
already done half of a terrorist's work for him. At the funeral of John
Oganowski (the captain of American Airlines flight 11), I spoke with other
pilots who have sharpened their belt buckles, screwdrivers, pens, etc., so
that they might have a prayer of defending their $30 million jets from guys
with boxcutters.
An emphasis on prevention is of course necessary, but we can never be sure
that every airport ramp worker, baggage handler, caterer, mechanic and
refueler is trustworthy. We need a last line of defense to keep hijackers
out of the cockpit. Federal agents from even the Bureau of Engraving and
Printing, Department of Agriculture, Department of Education and the
Smithsonian Institution are allowed to carry guns on commercial airlines.
Why not the pilots who are responsible for the aircraft? Many of us already
have better firearms training than that provided to those agencies-and we're
willing to get more at our own expense. . . .
Make some of us sky marshals. How much more cost-effective could a security
program be? At the very least, let us carry pocket knives again. As Benjamin
Franklin said, "If you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you."
Who could disagree? It turns out that the FAA does. In the wake of the
attack, the FAA is not liberalizing permissions but rather is eliminating
the formal (if unused) permission altogether. Effective November 14,
according to Kopel, there will be no circumstances under which the air
carrier itself can arm its own property against attack. Pilots may not even
carry three-inch pocket knives. Instead, only employees of the federal
government are allowed to function as sky marshals on select flights. (It
cannot put them on all.)
In taking this position, the FAA and the Bush administration are even
rejecting the pleas of the Air Line Pilots Association (67,000 members),
which overwhelmingly favors allowing pilots to be armed. Imagine if there
were a federal bureau in charge of the securing convenience stores, and part
of its "security plan" involved disarming all cashiers, and doing so against
the pleas of the potential victims behind the registers and their customers.
After an inevitable disaster, would it be any great comfort that the same
bureau later promised that the government itself would now start using
deadly force, in selected stores?
At issue here is the right to protect private property from invasion. After
all, hijacking is just the name we give to a crime that involves seizing
control of private property (the airplane) when it is flying in the air and
likely to be carrying hundreds of paying customers. The key to having
prevented this crime of theft-which in this case led to mass murder-is
better protection of property against invasion. In short, this case makes
the libertarian point that peace is best preserved through strict
application of the rules concerning private property.
Protecting planes from being seized from their owners is akin to the desire
of the gas stations, jewelry stores, and industrial plants not to be robbed.
In a free market, they do this through providing their own protection or
hiring protection services. These services include alarms, fences, and, as a
last resort, deadly force, which usually means a sidearm. The mere prospect
of deadly force works as a deterrent to crime and a means to limit the
damage of crimes.
Anyone who has visited Tiffany's in Manhattan knows that security is top
priority. The armed men standing around, all hired by the company itself,
don't make you feel intimidated unless you are up to no good. Otherwise,
they make you feel safe, because everyone knows that thieves are attracted
to jewelry stores. If a jewelry store were robbed during business hours, and
you found that the owners and managers had taken no precautions against such
a thing, you would be amazed. If the owner said he "would not have even
considered" arming the store, you might regard him as wildly irresponsible.
But a quick look at the existing literature on the subject turns up a taboo
against armed commercial flights. Rodney Wallis, former director of security
at the National Air Transport Association, wrote a book in 1993 called
Combating Air Terrorism (Washington: Brassey's), in which he dismissed the
idea in a few sentences: "Airline security must be seen to be preserving the
safety of passengers. Introducing guns into the cabin of an aircraft,
regardless of whose possession they are in, is unlikely to achieve this
goal" (p. 83).
Regardless of whose possession they are in? This sentence preposterously
assumes the moral equivalence of pilots and terrorists, as if human volition
has nothing to do with whether people are protected or injured by guns.
Under Wallis's logic, we would have to ban guns from the White House,
without regard to whether the guns were possessed by the Secret Service or
by would-be assassins.
No better is Peter St. John's Air Piracy, Airport Security, and
International Terrorism: Winning the War Against Hijackers (New York: Quarum
Books, 1976, 1989), which dismisses the idea of any guns on board in one
loaded sentence: "an ill-trained, armed sky marshal attempting to disrupt a
terrorist operation could lead to a worst [sic.] disaster" (p. 73). Thomas
Ashwood's Terror in the Skies (New York: Stein and Day, 1987) calls the idea
of armed marshals on planes "dangerous," "hazardous," "ill-conceived," "much
ballyhooed," "overpublicized," and, finally, "ineffective." Why? Because in
the past, armed men on planes have been "sparsely trained, overused,
underqualified, and improperly armed" (p. 69).
But all these arguments would seem to point to the need for more training,
not for disarming planes and putting the terrorists in charge. The failure
to distinguish between armed hijackers and armed pilots appears to be the
central problem that afflicted all "experts" before September 11. In other
words, the situation is not unlike the case of gun control in general:
hoping to eliminate violence, the gun banners have only sent a signal to the
most violent people that they are free to take charge.
Think of all three places where the federal regulations have imposed a
universal ban on guns: post offices, public schools, and airlines. It is
because of this ban that we know what "going postal" means, that we know
happened at Columbine, and that we will never forget the horror of September
11. The answer here is no different from the usual libertarian prescription
for ensuring peace: Let property owners protect themselves and those they
serve.
----------
Jeffrey Tucker is vice president of the Mises Institute and editor of The
Free Market. Tucker@mises.org. See his Daily Article Archive. He would like
to thank David Kopel for providing helpful comments on this piece.
Netking
(09/27/01; 15:22:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 62513)
Leigh / 24Wortel
Leigh - No, not in a Millennium could they confiscate those particular coins(I hope!)
24Wortel - Those words were sung by a "Young" man!
Canuck Gold
(09/27/01; 15:18:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62512)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
TRUE
The world may not have changed physically but it surely has in the hearts and souls of the population, particularly in the United States. The evidence is everywhere. It's in the faces of the airplane passengers that I've seen on the four flights I've taken since September 15th. Everyone is critically assessing their fellow passengers as a potential terrorist. It's tacitly spoken by the 60 or so passengers who didn't show up for each of the first two flights I took. The people who used to drive alone daily into lower Manhattan from the other boroughs can no longer do so because car pooling has been made mandatory. The George Washington bridge upper level was closed in both directions this morning because a suspicious package was found during the morning rush hour. There are now spot checks of vehicles coming into Manhattan. If you live in a small town away from the major urban centers and do not travel any significant distances, it may appears as if nothing has changed but that is not the case for the rest of us.
There was never much credibility given to the possibility of germ warfare or chemical attacks before September 11th. Now anything is possible. Anyone who wishes to buy a gas mask from an Army Surplus store would probably be out of luck. Let's face it. The people who perpetrated the attacks on the WTC and the Pentagon are likely going to strike again soon to prove how vulnerable we are and how ineffective our security measures are. Unfortunately, other terrorists are willing to die for the cause and there are lots of means of inflicting severe damage to our society. And under those circumstances, there's not a lot we can do about it.
How is all this going to effect gold, you may be wondering. Well, for a start, 100billion extra dollars will soon be flooding the world. If the US dollars was in trouble 3 weeks ago, it's in significantly more trouble today. The ripple effect of the bombings is causing havoc right across the economy. I anticipate millions of people will be put out of work. Not only will those people be not contributing to the economy, they will be sucking even more money out of the economy. There will be less travel, hotels will be only partly full, there will be fewer vehicles, houses, and appliances bought, less steel produced, etc, etc. It will become apparent to Joe Public, who has his life savings invested in mutual fund and stocks, that the profitability of the companies that are supporting his investments is going to be languishing at best for some time to come. The stock market will be going down, down, down.
Already there are reports of significant increases in the amount of gold being purchased by the general public. Even thought TPTB are desperately trying to suppress it's price, as soon as gold climbs over the psychological $300 mark, there's going to be a tremendous rush of people trying to buy it. The snowball effect will be quite dramatic because it will become apparent very quickly that there isn't enough gold to go around and people will not be willing to accept paper substitutes. That will signal the start of the fireworks and who knows how it will end.
CG.
24Wortel
(9/27/01; 14:09:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 62511)
You keep me searching
for a heart of gold.
And I'm getting old.
24Wortel
(9/27/01; 14:07:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 62510)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
It is false, yes false, I say to you,
Things have not yet changed.
The world's at risk as it was before
From men with minds deranged.
Civilian planes have been brought down,
From bombs and missile attacks
(Don't listen to the government
or their appointed hacks)
If things have changed
Does that not mean
That we were wrong before
Saying that gold would rise
For reasons well explored?
All along the 'bugs have known,
That strange times would unfold.
Which would bring the masses out
And put the shine on gold.
All that has changed since 9-1-1
Is that minds across our land
Are forced to pay attention
And pull their heads from sand.
But gold will rise anyway
And that is why I say-
Hold gold right now
Eschew the Dow,
We will have our day.
Leigh
(9/27/01; 13:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 62509)
Netking - Memorial Coins
Can you imagine the government coming back the following year and trying to CONFISCATE these gold and silver coins?
Netking
(9/27/01; 13:26:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 62508)
"Islamic Calendar Showed Plane Crashing Near Manhattan" - Newsmax
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/9/27/124953.shtml
From Newsmax; "A calendar which was printed in Egypt and shows a crashing passenger plane (per link) with Manhattan and the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop -- and which was printed in May, a full three months before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on America has caused an uproar . . . "
Netking
(9/27/01; 13:04:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 62507)
Memorial Silver Coins
(thanks Leigh) Memorial Gold and Silver Coins; "An unlimited number of silver coins to be minted" . . . Mmmm, as the mint are needing to be net buyers of Ag this year as they've all but used up their silver AND given the likely M A S S I V E demand for this issue from 'Joe Public' . . . a case of a 'Demand & Supply 101' "meltdown".
turkey hunter
(9/27/01; 12:57:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62506)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
False
Do not the rivers flow to the sea and return to its beginning? Does the sun still rise in the east and rests in the west? Does the moon not follow the golden path of the sun and basks in its light. Do not yet men hate and love? Does a flooded river not yet return to its normal course? Does not one generation come and another generation go?
These questions have been asked from long ago. It brings to mind a book in the bible called Ecclesiastes. Chapter one vs. 10 says; Sometimes there is a phenomenon of which they
say, "Look, this one is new!" -- it occurred long since, in the ages that went by before us. The earlier ones are not remembered; so too those that will occur later will no more be remembered than those that will occur at the very end.
Men have been at war from the beginning of time. The only thing that is different is that it came home once again right here in the USA. In chapter 3 of the book of Ecclesiastes it states that there is a season for everything.
The PTB have filled the valleys and plains of this country with paper dollars and it is reaching the mountain tops. The season for the dollar as a un-backed paper note is now falling away, its season is almost over. Gold will once again play its role in the coming financial arena. The PTB will have the gold and the people will still be the slaves. No! The world has not changed.
Turkey Hunter
Old Yeller
(9/27/01; 12:25:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 62505)
Gold advocates;dancing on people's graves?
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20010926211007107P52382&set_id=60
Or dancing on dishonest politicians' and central bankers' fiat currency graves?I prefer the latter,as it represents the truth.Prepare to be demonized,however,the spin cycle can only intensify as the stakes get higher.
Leigh
(9/27/01; 12:20:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62504)
September 11 Memorial Gold and Silver Coins
Just saw this on www.silver-investor.com:
(CNSNews.com) - Make way for a new "Spirit of America" coin commemorating victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. House Republican Conference Chairman J. C. Watts (R-Okla.) and Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) said they plan to introduce a bill creating a coin depicting the American flag, the Pentagon, and the World Trade Center towers. "This coin will serve not only as a reminder of the tragedies inflicted upon our nation, but more importantly, capture forever the spirit of America - one of a united people whose belief in freedom has never swayed," said Watts in a statement. The legislation would authorize the U.S. Treasury to mint a limited number of gold coins and an unlimited number of silver and clad coins, with all proceeds going to a fund for victims and their families.
Old Yeller
(9/27/01; 11:44:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62503)
How many legs does the world currency stool have, 3 or 4?
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,936362-6078-0,00.html
When the elephant of unpayable debt climbs aboard?
White Hills
(9/27/01; 10:40:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62502)
Unknown Author
I Received this by mail; On Monday, we emailed jokes.On Tuesday, we did not.On Monday, we thought we were secure.On Tuesday,we learned better.On Monday, we thought our athletes were heroes.On Tuesday, we remembered who our heroes were.On Monday, we were irritated that our rebate checks had not arrived.On Tuesday, we gave money to people we had never met.On Monday, people were fighting against prayer in schools.On Tuesday, you couldn't find a school where someone was not praying.On Monday,people argued with their kids about picking up their room.On Tuesday,people rushed home to hug their kids.On Monday,people complained about waiting 6 minutes for fast food.On Tuesday, people waited 6 hours to give blood.On Monday, we embraced our cultural diversity.On Tuesday,we were all Americans.On Monday, politicians argued about budget surpluses, On Tuesday,they sang 'God Bless America'. It is sadly ironic how it takes horrific events to plsce things into perspective. The lessons learned last week, the things we have taken for granted, the things that have been forgotten or overlooked, we should try not to forget again . UNKNOWN AUTHOR.******** I MIGHT ADD ON MONDAY , THE ECONOMIC FUTURE SEEMED FILLED WITH UNCERTAINTY, ON TUESDAY IT WAS CLEAR, GOLD IS KING!!!! White Hills
Old Yeller
(9/27/01; 09:42:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 62501)
#######$293.90########
Although the tragedy of Sept.11 has intensified the stresses on what I percieve to be a gentle touchdown of US asset prices as envisioned as a final master stroke of Alan Greenspan,control of monetary parameters has been maintained.This is truly a prisoners' dilemma,as all parties are aware of the envitable fate of the US dollar and Japanese Yen.Yes,the world will choose the euro of it's own volition and gold will finally be set free.This choice ,however,entails clearing many hurdles of established monetary hegemony,but the inevitable crush of black and white accounting will prevail.
Goldfinger 2
(9/27/01; 09:40:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 62500)
###########$292.50#######
Although I visit this board frequently this is my first post. Given current market conditions over the last year I have become interested in gold once again. I have notice coworkers and friends speaking more of gold over the last few months. This is very encouraging since these same people over the past five years have spoke only of stocks and mutual funds. This is where momentum must start to lift gold.
Shermag
(9/27/01; 09:39:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 62499)
##### $294.80 #####
The surging demand for physical by the small investor will soon force a breakout in the futures. This will be the force to take control.
Quixotic1
(9/27/01; 09:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62498)
Price of Gold
######## $303.50 ########
There seems to be a ground swell of bullion-coin buyers that is creating enough publicity to affect the price of paper at the margin...kinda like the first domino. My coin dealer indicates several people per day buying 100oz or more at time; previously, this was a VERY rare event. On average, this coin dealer sees premiums going higher because of a tight and sluggish supply and a change in demand not linked to the day-to-day tribulations of the spot market. It appears marginal demand has shifted for a more fundamental and emotional reason, namely what happened 9-11. This demand component should prove much more difficult for the cabal to manipulate. Higher we go...
Just a guess....on a wing and a prayer; TA doesn't work anymore.
Gold for the good guys....Gary
Budfox
(9/27/01; 09:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62497)
Confidence Booster !!
I must say my confidence was boosted greatly when the Nasduck relaxed listing requirements today. Next reverse splits ???
annie
(9/27/01; 09:03:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 62496)
#### $292.70 #####
Comments: Gold is in bullish territory. Price is above the moving average so the trend is up and the market trend is UP. Volatility appears to be declining but the market seems to be overbought. Short term indicates movement up $.50-1.00.
USAGOLD
(9/27/01; 09:02:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 62495)
Queen Victoria sovereigns. . . .
Every once in awhile we get a hoard of coins that amount to something special. The Queen Victoria sovereigns we are now offering (go to the link above) are usually difficult to obtain -- especially in the uncirculated grade. This is something we strongly recommend to our regular buyers. To me buying these coins is similar to the days when you could buy $20 gold pieces in bulk near gold value with the hope of obtaining something that would have extraordinary value down the road.
For Moms and Dad, Grandmas and Grandpas this is the one to put away for kids and grandkids. I doubt we'll have very many offers of Victoria sovereigns in uncirculated condition in the future, particularly with enough availability in terms of quantity to accomplish what I just suggested.
As always it will be first come, first served.
There's a discounting mechanism built into the on-line store you are invited to take advantage of. For orders over 50 coins we ask that you call the office and talk to either Marie, George or myself.
We don't expect these to last. With the holidays not too far down the road, perhaps a little discretionary investment gift-giving would be in order??
In seeing all the first-time posters here over the past few days to which we will be obligated to send a silver eagle, I am reminded of one Queen Victoria's most famous utterances (upon seeing an artist's caricature of herself). Never was the royal "we" used so well:
"We are not amused."
(To the vaults, Marie. . . .Recount the Silver. . . . Get the Treasury's bullion bankers on the phone. . . .We may need a loan. . . . .How do I get talked into these things???. . . .)
- - - - - -
Here's one more interesting quote from H.G. Wells:
"Queen Victoria was like a paperweight that for half a century sat upon men's minds, and when whe was removed their ideas began to blow all over the place haphazardly."
So pick up a little interesting history while its available -- remembrances of Empire.
Jaguar
(9/27/01; 08:31:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 62494)
####320.50###
Consurmer spending down, derivitives exposure, construction down, mass layoffs, rumours of wars, 24/7 on the printing presses, exodus of foreign money, and the dollar slide.
24Wortel
(9/27/01; 08:27:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62493)
#### 292.20 ####
Its like "The Price is Right". You see what your competitors bid and find a nice spot in a gap. This is 25 words exactly.
Neubie
(9/27/01; 08:26:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 62492)
##### $314.40 #####
Just a guess -- you never know, a bomb here, a bomb there, another terrorist catastrophy, a bungled US grab for Bin Laden, and the markets explode (implode?) again. Very uncertain times ahead indeed.
Jaguar
(9/27/01; 08:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62491)
####320.50####
Consumer spending down, derivitives exposure, construction down, mass layoffs,rumours of wars, 24/7 on the printing presses,exodus of foreign money, dollar slide.
Canuck Gold
(9/27/01; 08:20:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62490)
##### $292.10 #####
There's going to be a tug of war over the next few weeks between the shorts and the longs. The shorts will not want the price to go over or even approach $300 and the longs will not let it go below $290 or so. At this point it's a crap shoot.
miner49er
(9/27/01; 08:18:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62489)
###### 291.80 ######
"It's the dollar, stupid..."
Considering Randy's good catch about prior ECB mark2mkt at Euro 318.28, and their desire to not close on Friday lower than this, and that the USD is going through a bit of a ramp job today courtesy of Japan...
Therefore, if I can guess the USD/Euro exchange rate, then calculate the USD rate off of E318.28, anticipate forward using the 3 mos. forward rate, and presto!
So... .913 [my guess] * 318.28 = 290.60 approx. + (290.6 * ( .0172 [3 mos forward rate] / 4 ) = 291.85
Since BlackBlade already got this, I'll go lower to 291.80... (and this is how the miner thinks...)
CoBra(too)
(9/27/01; 08:17:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62488)
POG Contest: ####291.75####
Feeling that the PTB will try ho hold it below the 292
resistance come the weekend.
Humble Pie
(9/27/01; 08:16:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 62487)
####$289.90#####
I feel that this price will reflect that the Beat goes on.Easy Al' trip to Switzerland was in part to strong arm the Swiss into speeding up their sale of their Gold,and thus the PPT is still in some form of control.
De Ronin
(9/27/01; 08:15:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 62485)
The Piviotal Mideast Strategic Issue
http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109262300.htm
Other than the introduction of some horrendous non-conventional mass killing weapons, my main concern about (and what I view to be our main vulnerablitiy) is economic. Based on Gulf War lessons the US can't be defeated on a straight battelfield with the luxury of months to prepare (Afgan might be different). Based on the lessons over the last 2 weeks we could be very vulnerable economically.
The most important component of defusing the economic threat is an assured source of oil. If this thing deteriorates into a Muslim world vs the West, Mideast oil policy will change. Recognise 70% of the world's proven reserves are in Muslim areas.
The piviotal issue is having Saudi Arabia continuing to maintain favorable production policies. If the House of Saud starts to tremble, we might have some big problems. For this reason we shouldn't even be asking them to mount offensive strikes from Saudi soil. We need to be sensitive to Muslim concerns about the home of the most revered Muslim Holy sites.
The repeated talk about Saudi Arabia being broke is pure Bunk. You do the math. Iraq won't be exporting before this thing is over. Contrary to Monday's $4 barrel drop, oil prices will escalate after a true Mideast war begins and the Saudis will be producing over 9 million barrels a day into, what?, $30 economics. Even if its $20 /bl...this is big income! Far more than they made per annum in the 90s and they might have 250 billion barrels of reserves. What will those be worth in 10 years? Contrary to the contentions of being broke, the Saudis will increasingly be the richest country in the world, especially if oil producers go with the strategy they can produce half as much at 4-6 times the price.
http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=3530.topic
Christian
(09/27/01; 06:59:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62484)
##### $293.50 #####
Just a guess. All I know is that the FED's overseas dollars in circulation = FED's gold short position its member banks hold. Greenspan has temporary lost the pegging the price of gold to the $275.00 overseas dollar gold standard.
Grubstaker
(09/27/01; 06:47:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62483)
#### $290.50 #####
Reposting my contest amount entry as I used **** instead of ####. Please allow my text which proceeded this correction.
GO GOLD....
Grubstaker
(09/27/01; 06:39:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 62482)
****** $290.50****
Contest entry:
Although will break $300 soon , I believe for now it will resist the upward climb. When it becomes very clear that the economic implications of this recent tragedy are multiplied upon the already deteriorating economic fundamentals all will be lost. Gold will break-out sooner than later. Never-the-less the out come is inevitble as the "new-paradigm economy" was really the biggest financial bubble in our modern history.
Belgian
(09/27/01; 06:34:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 62481)
@ Netking : Puplava post on derivatives
Indeed Sir, the WTC-tragedy was the perfect example of "imponderabile". And even these totally unexpeted aspects, not calculated in the webs of the financial intriques, aren't causing dramas, for the time being. This observation must speak for itself : TOTAL FALSIFICATION !
The recent Japanese monetary maneuvering to devalue on purpose one's own national currency (yen) in order to stay in business...is unbelievably true ! TOTAL ARTIFICIALITY !!
All these financial(monetary) tails that are wagging the decomposing economic dog. ABSOLUTE DESPERATION !!
The US with its 10 Trillion GDP (= 25% of world GDP-40 Tr.) has to rely for already 30 years on the very dependant goodwill of OPEC cheap (cheaper) crude oil basics. OPEC controls 34% of global crude production. Do you agree on the dis-proportionate balance of power/force ? Would you accept this situation as an ordinarry citizen and not as a member of the Royals ? (= rhetoric question).
I'm very afraid that this aspect of muslim terror will be neglected in the future battle against that evil. We want to eradicate criminal terror (30 years of age) without having the courage to face the unjustified reasons for it.
Jihad is the cover up for ordinary human economical humuliation, that has found refuge in blind atrocity towards mostly innocent people, everywhere. And indeed, at the surface, the WTC-drama hasn't changed the old patterns of thinking. The financial super-management, succeeds in avoiding, radical change, through *fabricating* economic survival. Politics and economics are interacting only on the surface and the struggle for absolute power is making fruitfull development, impossible. If this sounds like socialistic music...I'm afraid, it is a point.
In Europ, the welfare distribution, goes on, at an almost obscene/UNASHAMED scale. Too such an extend that I'm on the brink of seeking some shrink assistance (smile).
It is a now or never attitude. Give it *all* to them and give it *now* ! But who's going to complain about this abundance out of nothing ? There is no such thing as the search for a breaking point. The serious observers are all ready to admit that we are stucked and trapped and finalise all discussion with the trivial whispering question : do you have any alternative ? Yes I do : TOTAL COLLAPSE !
Black Blade
(09/27/01; 06:30:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62480)
Anglo may cut up to 600 jobs
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=iol1001537738954A524&set_id=60
Snippit:
Johannesburg - Mining giant Anglo American Plc may cut between 500 and 600 positions as part of a review of the company's corporate offices in London and Johannesburg, Anglo said in a memo to staff.
Black Blade: Even AngloGold wants to join the fun - adding to the "Bone Pile." The Gold hedges must be going sour.
dragonfly
(09/27/01; 05:59:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62479)
##### 290.00 #####
Contest Post - It seems that TPTB have alot on their plate right now and would like to keep us Gold Advocates from stirring things up even more than they already are. So they are going to keep POG low for awhile yet, full well realizing that we are patiently accumulating at these rock-bottom prices. They are not yet ready to let the bird fly, but soon. Yes, I think I can hear the cage door opening now, creaking from lack of use.
Hipplebeck
(09/27/01; 05:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 62478)
currencies
Things are fast becoming a big joke. I don't see how anyone could have confidence in paper money anymore. It is open and there for all to see. The US cranking out money to try to get citizens to spend, and the Japanese cranking out money to buy American money. Can it get any more ridiculous?
Belgian
(09/27/01; 05:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62477)
@ AEL # 62428
Many thanks, Sir, for bringing Boudewijn Wegerif / John Kutyn / David Guyatt, to our attention (again).
There are two possibilities connected to the very far reaching thoughts, publicly, expressed by these gentlemens :
1/ All elements in it are pure fictional imagination and sensationalism ? And not answer-worthy, by any established Gold authority (???) ?
2/ It is pretty close to reality, known by the established gold oligopoly, and therefore to remain ridiculed and ignored ?
We, liliputans have no evidence or any valuable argument(factual) *pro* or *contra*, any of the mentionned elements of the thoughts.
It is only the absurd and unexplicable situation of Gold for the past 20 years that inclines us to accept that *Secret Gold Treaties* must exist, in order to produce some acceptable explanation (logical) for what is happening now.
Off ledger * stolen* Gold must one day be claimed by the ones from who it has been stolen ? cfr. Recent Jewish official, stolen- Gold-claims during nazi period (Switzerland) !
I would welcome this gentlemen John Kutyn on this forum as an ex banker and having his thoughts about debt/GDP -growths and Gold's place (future function) into the final settlement of this *on purpose* mal-management. Let's invite (seduce) him on jkutyn@voyager.co.nz.
Achilles
(09/27/01; 05:01:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62476)
Paper POG ####293.20####
Now just isn't the time for any significant movement to the upside. However, I feel this may be the last options expiry date that this will be the case. POG is determined BY its paper price-right now. When physical demand takes over, that will begin the change we've been waiting for. Soon.
Simply Me
(9/27/01; 04:29:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 62475)
#### $288.80 ####
I chose this number because I believe there will be some buying pressure from folks trying to park their money in a safe spot outside the stock market for the weekend, but it will be pushed back down by the anti-gold (Goldman, JPM, etc) forces. Can't allow those longs to get too happy! Wish I could find some charts to back this up. It's really just a guess.
Thanks for the contest, MK. It gave me a reason not to put off thinking about these issues. When there's so much going on, I tend to get a Scarlet O'Hara "I'll worry about it tomorrow." attitude.
simply
The CoinGuy
(9/27/01; 04:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 62474)
On Japan...
Hello Randy,
Any read on the mark to marketing of securities in Japan next week? This is going to get interesting.
It seems to me that the Japanese citizens are repatriating their investments from the US, only to have the government flood the world with yen to buy dollars. I don't see how you could call this government policy? I read where the Japanese bought 3 tons worth of bars after the WTC disaster, I think this is going to be a drop in the bucket.
Precious metals were the best performing sector again yesterday. Hmmm...
The Coinguy
site steward
(9/27/01; 03:29:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 62473)
Teetering on the brink of the stuff that hyperinflations are made of...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010927/t116869_2.html
...but "cultural austerity" holds firm for yet another day.
Sooner or later, someone will blink.
Whooooooosh! We'll all be hip deep in paper.
R.
Netking
(9/27/01; 02:56:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 62472)
Derivatives - The Next Rogue Wave?
http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq201.pdf
Carrying on the recent derivatives theme, Jim Puplava in his 'storm watch update' ponders the smoldering fire of our derivatives markets.- Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
". . . One wonders where the next rogue wave will emerge. I believe it will come from either another terrorist attack or from a derivative portfolio being held by a commercial bank, brokerage firm or leveraged hedge fund. The derivative portfolio of commercial banks increased by $7.3 trillion or 39% during the first half of the year. The top 7 banks now own close to $47.8 trillion in their derivative portfolios. One bank, J.P. Morgan Chase accounts for over half of that. The derivative holdings of these banks are almost five times our nation's GDP. Backing those leveraged bets is only $43 billion in shareholder equity. That is probably keeping our nation's commercial bankers and central bankers up at night.
Most of those derivative holdings are based on models of certainty. The models incorporate 1:2 standard deviations of risk. What happened at the World Trade Center is a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. It lies at the tail end of the curve. September 11th would have driven models off the charts. Someone, somewhere is unprepared for this. Surely the attacks were a statistical anomaly that would be incalculable, a risk the models didn't foresee. Somewhere out there in the shadows of this opaque world, there is an anxious trader.
In derivative transactions, there are two or more parties to a trade. One of them is right, while the other is wrong. This is what is known as counterparty risk, the ability of those who are wrong to honor their obligations. What we don't know now is whose cards will fold?
In the complex world of derivatives, individuals considered to be savvy and well informed set the price of contracts. Nobody seemed to be informed of the Trade Center attack. Our government didn't know. Law enforcement and intelligence officials were unaware. The financial traders inside those buildings were tragically the last to know. The experts never saw this attack coming. It was an unexpected event. It was a crisis that emerged out of nowhere, at a time they did not expect. It was the one event that was not anticipated. It became the rogue wave that took the financial experts and politicians by surprise.
. . . Within the smoke and ruins of the World Trade Center, another fire is smoldering somewhere in those derivative contracts. Every time financial fires have erupted in the financial markets, the trail has led to derivative trades. Remember Barings Bank, Orange County, Metallgesellschaft, Sumitomo Bank and LTCM. The question now is, "Who will be this crisis' next victim?" Stay tuned. The fireworks have only just begun . . .
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
site steward
(9/27/01; 02:14:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62471)
Qualified entries thus far...
PRICE GUESSING CONTEST:
"In addition to the posting contest, there will be an additional contest calling on participants price-guessing skills -- and what better time than now than to call on those skills?
Whoever is closest to the settlement price of the December contract on the Comex for the Friday close, September 28, 2001 wins a pre-1933 British sovereign. There will be no runners-up.
He or she who first claims a price owns it and no other can take it. Choose carefully. Each price pick must be accompanied by 25 words why this price is the one you choose. All entries must be on the board no later than Thursday September 27, 2001 10AM mountain time. No 25 word commentary, no prize. No late entries will be accepted.
All price entries must be surrounded by #### signs, as follows:
#### $875.00 #####
Only one entry per category per contestant.
I wish you all well, my friends, and good luck." ---MK
_____________________________________________
Henri (9/25/01; 12:32:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62339)
#### $249 ####
uponroof (9/25/01; 12:15)
##### $269.69 #####
BR549 (9/24/01; 23:20)
#### $275 ##### "Alan Greenspan said the Fed was pegging the price of gold simulating an unofficial gold standard." [Thanks, BR. Seems like not many people have been liking the *price performance* of a "gold standard." Just think about it, folks.]
cwa (9/24/01; 21:50)
####$285####
FluorideCommie (9/25/01; 16:49)
#### $287.50 ##### "Since it is my understanding that we are guessing the "paper" price, I don't see any reason why it should vary outside the range it has been in the last 3 years or so..."
Solomon Weaver (9/25/01; 19:36)
#### 287.55 ####
Nomad (9/24/01; 21:11)
#### $288 #####
mikal (09/25/01; 19:45)
###### $289 #######
Wky_Woodsman (9/25/01; 19:29)
#### $289.35 ####
Rudely Awakened (9/26/01; 19:08)
##### $289.50 ####
Beowulf (9/26/01; 21:35)
#### $289.50 ####
VanRip (9/26/01; 11:17)
##### $290.10 #####
knew-bee (9/26/01; 15:06)
POG contest
#### $290.90 ##### "Wow, a chance to guess at gold's closing price without putting up margin money!"
Hipplebeck (9/26/01; 22:26)
##### $291.15 ######
Black Blade (9/25/01; 20:39)
#### $291.85 ####
Canuck (9/25/01; 10:50)
###### $291.90 ######
The Invisible Hand (9/26/01; 17:51)
#### EUR 318.28 #####
The CoinGuy (09/25/01; 05:38)
#### $293.25 #### "You can't corner a printing press".
Beer Man (9/26/01; 16:20)
###### 294.00 ####
G$ (9/26/01; 07:55)
###### $295.50 ######
canamami (9/27/01; 00:16)
###### $296.45 #########
Gandalf the White (9/25/01; 10:25)
###### $296.70 ########
R Powell (9/26/01; 09:37)
######## $297.60 ########
Broken Tee (9/26/01; 15:34)
###### 297.70 ######## "The same people not manipulating the POG before 9/11 will continue not to manipulate it." [Amen, brother.]
goldroadlx7 (9/26/01; 16:45)
##### 298.05 #####
The Hoople (09/26/01; 10:19)
#### $299.40 ####
Econoclast (9/26/01; 13:16)
##### $299.70 #####
Buena Fe (9/26/01; 08:35)
#### $302.10 #####
Netking (09/25/01; 04:36)
#### $302.22 #####
Quixotic1 (9/26/01; 11:58)
######## $303.50 ########
White Hills (9/26/01; 18:54)
####### 303.90 #######
goldquest (9/25/01; 15:45)
#### $307.90 ####
cyclist (9/26/01; 19:43)
#### 308.04 ####
darkhorse (9/26/01; 22:18)
##### $310.30 #####
R.
Netking
(9/27/01; 00:53:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62470)
Russian Mafia, bin-Laden Talking Weapons of Mass Destruction
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20010926-945878.htm
According to reports in the Washington Times, US intelligence has developed new information that suggests al Qaeda is actively working toward acquiring components for weapons of mass destruction from the Russian mafia. There is currently no hard evidence that bin-Laden has already produced bio or chemical weapons, but intelligence agencies do believe bin-Laden has a secret nuclear weapons laboratory operating somewhere inside Afghanistan.
The laboratory is believed to be where bin Laden associates are working on developing nuclear or radiological weapons. Radiological weapons are bombs that kill by spreading radioactive material. A foreign intelligence service report stated that al Qaeda has obtained some type of nuclear device. That report is as yet unconfirmed. . . .
canamami
(9/27/01; 00:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 62469)
######$296.45#########
CONTEST POST: I believe there will be some deterioration in the stock market during the rest of the week, plus continued uncertainty flowing from the tragedy and its fallout. This will cause some increase in the POG. However, the antics of the PPT manipulators, plus the fact that many would-be goldbugs are so fed-up and demoralized that they no longer bother to go long gold, means that the upside will be limited to $296.45.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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