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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/27/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

auspec (10/27/01; 20:11:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 64273)
GATA/The Invisible Hand
It seems like, uh, uh, er....... another story has predominated lately?

Whatever the reason it is certainly not for lack of effort!
Regards

auspec (10/27/01; 20:06:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 64272)
Chapman/Silver
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/chapman102901pv.html
This ought to stir up a little thought:
The short position in silver is 1.5 billion ounces. A position that can never be covered. As in any market dominated by the shorts, as they cover, buying will increase. Upward pressure will also be increased when the investment public has a better understanding that silver is the purifier for homes, the best ointment for skin infection and burns and even for implants for prostate cancer. At current prices little physical silver is available, although as prices move higher the market will become more liquid.

In order to save the shorts, because we are now involved in military action, and that increases silver usage, it would be politically expedient for the government via Comex to declare a 90-day moratorium on silver futures and option contracts. An executive order would suffice. During that period a long or a short could opt out of a contract with say a 10% penalty. This percentage would be justified, inasmuch as recent swings have been in a 20% maximum range. This would allow the shorts to cover without having to deliver physical silver. Buying and selling would then be on a 30-60 day physical basis, which would allow silver prices to rise. As prices moved higher physical sellers would appear liquefying the market. Bankrupt mines could be reorganized and shut-in production would come back on stream leading to a higher but orderly market. The government, seeing they'll be out of sliver by March, could avoid confiscation and allow silver to remain in the hands of the public. They could be assured of supply by recording new purchases, so that if the government wanted or needed silver it could be force purchased, probably at rates close to or above the spot physical market. The government doesn't care what it pays; they'll just print money to pay for it. Silver companies publicly held shares and collateralized bonds would be exempt. We expect the government could very well do something like this to avoid a meltdown. It would again give us an un-manipulated silver market. We mentioned recently that those with gold or silver certificates for gold on deposit at the WTC should take delivery. We recommend all owners of gold and silver certificates take delivery. If you all do that it will put more pressure on the gold and silver manipulators. Kodak's earnings may be off 45% but sales were only off 8%, which includes cameras, film and photographic paper.


The Invisible Hand (10/27/01; 19:59:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64271)
Did GATA die?
This dates from when the GATA hearing was still scheduled on Oct. 9 before being postponed to November 5, that's in a week. I posted this already 2 or 3 times but didn't receive any answer. Isn't it about time that the chain of stories starts?

[GATA] Back from another trip to Washington: The gold story is going to break

By Bill Murphy
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
September 6, 2001
…
The GATA story will be all over the world press in the
weeks to come. One story will lead to another. As the
Reg Howe complaint hearing on October 9 approaches,
"Read All About It" type of stories will surface more
in the financial press. The more the facts are checked
out, the greater the aspersions will be cast on The
Gold Cartel and on their apologists. They will no
longer be able to hide what they have done and to keep
the gold truth in the dark -- where vampires like them
thrive on the blood of innocents.
…

Cavan Man (10/27/01; 19:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 64270)
(What they've been waiting for)
(Two bowls of rice are not enough ante)
Saturday October 27 10:53 AM ET

Pakistanis Leave for Holy War

By RIAZ KHAN, Associated Press Writer

TEMERGARAH, Pakistan (AP) - In buses and trucks, pickups and vans, more than 5,000 people rolled out of a
northeastern Pakistan village Saturday morning, bound for the Afghan frontier and vowing to fight a holy war against the
United States.

Hundreds were reported crossing into Afghanistan over rugged mountains by Saturday evening, Pakistani border police said.

Thousands of Pakistani men, young and old, had massed in Temergarah on Friday night with assault rifles, machine guns, even
rocket launchers. A few even carried axes and swords.

Their mission, they said: to enter Afghanistan's Kunar province and help the country's ruling Taliban defend against any ground
incursions by American troops.

``I am an old man. I consider myself lucky to go - and to face the death of a martyr,'' said Shah Wazir, 70, a retired Pakistani
army officer. In his hands Saturday morning, he carried a French rifle from about 1920.

Organizers said similar-sized groups were massing in other towns across North West Frontier Province, an enclave of ethnic
Pashtuns with ties to - and deep feelings for - neighboring Afghanistan.

Volunteers gathered in scores of groups of 20, sitting on the ground to be briefed on the ways of jihad - Islamic holy war - by
military commanders wearing black turbans and full beards similar to the Taliban militia. One key rule: obedience to leaders.

``It is a difficult time for Islam and Muslims. We are in a test. Everybody should be ready to pass the test - and to sacrifice
our lives,'' said Mohammad Khaled, one brigade leader. Would-be warriors embraced and chanted anti-American slogans.

Hussain Khan, 19, a carpenter from the area, carried a Kalashnikov and stood with his friend. He said he was leaving behind
a fiancee and joining a just cause.

``Whether I come back alive or I am dead, I'll be fortunate because I am fighting in the service of Islam,'' Khan said.

The call for holy war came this week from Sufi Mohammad, an outspoken Muslim cleric who runs a madrassa, or religious
school, in nearby Madyan. He exhorted ``true Muslims'' to mass and prepare to go to Afghanistan - to repel any U.S. ground
incursions.

What they will do upon arrival is uncertain. But hundreds of vehicles - more than 1,000 volunteers - rolled into the mountains
that separate the two countries Saturday night, said Himdallah Khan, a police official at Bajur Agency, a borderland area.
Many returned empty. Hundreds of other Pakistanis from different areas were converging near Bajur.

In this region of Pakistan, Mohammad's organization, Tehrik Nifaz Shariat Mohammadi Malakand, or Movement for the
Enforcement of Islamic Laws, has been embraced.

And the cleric's message - that, despite its insistence to the contrary, the United States is waging war on Islam - hits home.

``This is a strange occasion of world history,'' Mohammad said Friday. ``For the first time, all the anti-Islamic forces are
united against Islam.''

It was impossible to verify how many supporters were actually en route to join him. In recent weeks, many militants have
claimed far more backing than rallies eventually produce.

However, the numbers in Temergarah on Saturday morning - and the people jammed into trucks and on bus rooftops -
suggested support was heavy. Mohammad's backers say the number to enter Afghanistan will reach 100,000.

``We are not worried about death,'' said Khaled, the brigade leader. ``If we die in jihad, it is something much more greater
than to be alive. And we will be taken into paradise.''

The night before, men had massed by the thousands in Temergarah and other wind-whipped mountain villages in northeastern
Pakistan's mountains.

Out-of-towners, their conversation crackling with anticipation, roamed Temergarah's streets. Pickup trucks patrolled town
with loudspeakers attached, calling people to assemble with a chant: ``Afghanistan will be a graveyard for Americans.'' Men
huddled around radios, listening for news about the conflict; most tuned in to the BBC.

People camped on porches, beneficiaries of local hospitality. Others slept on floors of public buildings. Mosques lodged as
many as they could, and supplied food and blankets.

``I cannot tolerate the bombing and the cruelty of Americans. I must go,'' said Mamoor Shah, a medicine salesman who, at
18, already has a wife and child. ``Muslims cannot keep silent.''

For many young men, this is no mere rite of passage. It is religion - and it is blood, heritage and family.

``I'm going. My mother sent me to fight for our faith,'' said Farooq Shah, 21, a student from Buner, 50 miles away. When she
told him to go, he had no Kalashnikov. So she went out, sold her jewelry and bought him one.


Black Blade (10/27/01; 14:00:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 64269)
Brazil oil workers under fire on 4th day of strike
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011027/n27244502_1.html

Snippit:

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Brazilian oil workers came under fire on Saturday, the fourth day of a nationwide strike to demand higher wages, for slashing oil output by more than half and threatening domestic supplies. Union leaders representing the nation's 34,000 oilmen prepared for the next round of talks with state oil giant Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) amid repeated pleas to ensure the supply of natural gas and other petroleum derivatives that have been choked off. Oil production was 65 percent below normal levels on Friday at 491,000 barrels per day (bpd) and natural gas output was off 39 percent at 23 million cubic meters a day in the first mass strike since 1995.

Black Blade: The strike has the same effect as an OPEC oil production cut. Less oil to market and a lowering of onshore petroleum inventories.


Leigh (10/27/01; 13:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 64268)
Trail Guide
Trail Guide, I haven't camped outside for about 10 years. It's been kind of fun doing virtual camping with my USAGOLD buds.

So you were in a tent during your last vacation? Did a camel poke his nose under the tent? (Just kidding! ANOTHER's phrases are just too memorable!)

Best wishes to you.


jb (10/27/01; 13:51:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64267)
(No Subject)
did not take long did it ? buy gold and silve and bury it.ink is not dry and they want to expand police powers.





Ashcroft Eager to Expand Police Powers

NewsMax.com Wires
Friday, Oct. 26, 2001

WASHINGTON - Attorney General John Ashcroft says he will order
U.S. law enforcement to immediately use broad new police powers
contained in an anti-terrorism bill once it becomes law.

"History's judgment will be harsh ... if we fail to use every available
resource to prevent future terrorist attacks," the attorney general said
Thursday at the U.S. Conference of Mayors. "... Our enemies now have
new reason to fear."

Congress is expected to deliver the bill to President Bush today. The
president is expected to sign the legislation into law immediately.

Civil libertarians have pledged to challenge some of the new law's
provisions in court on constitutional grounds.

Ashcroft said once the bill has Bush's signature, he will order the 94
U.S. attorney's office and the 56 FBI field offices in the United States to
begin implementing its provisions.

Citing the war against organized crime under then-Attorney General
Robert Kennedy, Ashcroft said the current Justice Department has
adopted the same tactics against terrorism.

'We Will Use All Our Weapons'

"Let the terrorists among us be warned," Ashcroft said. "If you overstay
your visa, even by one day, we will arrest you. If you violate a local law,
you will be put in jail and kept in custody as long as possible.

"We will use every available statute. We will seek every prosecutorial
advantage. We will use all our weapons within the law and under the
Constitution to protect life and enhance security for America."

Ashcroft suggested that the Justice Department, which has charged no
one directly in the Sept. 11 terror attacks, believes some of those
arrested on minor charges since then might be terrorists.

"To date, our anti-terrorism offensive has arrested or detained nearly
1,000 individuals as part of the Sept. 11 terrorism investigation,"
Ashcroft said. "Those who violated the law remain in custody. Taking
suspected terrorists in violation of the law off the streets and keeping
them locked up is our clear strategy to prevent terrorism within our
borders."

As for the new police powers contained in the legislation headed for
Bush's desk, "a new era in America's fight against terrorism, made
tragically necessary by the attacks of Sept. 11, is about to begin,"
Ashcroft said.

The attorney general said he would seek court-ordered wiretaps on
communications "related to an expanded list of crimes under the
legislation. Communications regarding terrorist offenses such as the
use of biological or chemical agents, financing acts of terrorism or
materially supporting terrorism will be subject to interception by law
enforcement."

Ashcroft said the department would immediately begin seeking "roving"
wiretaps of suspected terrorists. Previously, federal judges could
authorize wiretaps on a particular telephone number in a particular
jurisdiction. Under the new legislation, judges can order wiretaps
against an individual, and the FBI can conduct surveillance on that
individual on any phone in any jurisdiction.

Focus on Internet

"Investigators will be directed to pursue aggressively terrorists on the
Internet," Ashcroft said. "New authority in the legislation permits the use
of devices that capture senders' and receivers' addresses associated
with communications on the Internet.

"Law enforcement will begin immediately to seek search warrants to
obtain unopened voice mail stored on a computer, just as they
traditionally have used search warrants to obtain unopened e-mail.
They will also begin to use new subpoena power to obtain payment
information such as credit card or bank account numbers of suspected
terrorists on the Internet."

Ashcroft appeared to be anticipating challenges from civil libertarians
against some provisions of the new legislation, but said the provisions
were necessary.

"Some will ask whether a civilized nation, a nation of law and not of
men, can use the law to defend itself from barbarians and remain
civilized," Ashcroft said. "Our answer, unequivocally, is 'Yes.' Yes, we
will defend civilization, and yes, we will preserve the rule of law
because it makes us civilized."

Copyright 2001 by United Press International.

All rights reserved.





Black Blade (10/27/01; 13:49:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 64266)
OPEC, Oman Ready to Slash Oil Output-Ministers
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011027/business_energy_opec_nonopec_dc_2.html

Snippit:

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - OPEC's Gulf heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said on Saturday the group stood ready to slash output to rescue battered prices. ``In principle there is agreement (in OPEC) to change the production ceiling, but I am not going to give out figures,'' said UAE Oil Minister Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri. He was speaking to reporters after talks with Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and Oman's Mohammed bin Hamed al-Rumhy. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also made progress in an OPEC bid to enlist non-OPEC countries' participation in supply curbs by recruiting neighboring Oman, a medium-sized independent producer.

Black Blade: Even Mexico will likely hold off some production though PEMEX is producing at capacity. Other non-OPEC members have cooperated in the past. Even Norway had indicated that they would probably participate. Indonesia will likely participate as they are offended at the US "war against Islam" in Afghanistan. The only holdout that could keep up production is Russia and they too are at near capacity when the equipment works.


Old Yeller (10/27/01; 13:36:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 64265)
Credit bubble bulletin highlight
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=194998

Enron's complex derivative exposure and the implications therein.

Many,many patches on the old inner tube,pressure building?

R Powell (10/27/01; 13:29:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 64264)
Momentarily not fairly priced
Cavan Man and Black Blade and myself are all in agreement that the economic future does not look too promising with bad news and new lows. Interesting but not promising.
The CoinGuy (64256) has also answered my wondering question as to where the stock markets are going, near term, and specifically why they've been advancing in this environment. He said, "I'll tell you my opinion, and that is we are seeing manipulative action to the upside that will not sustain itself." Thanks CoinGuy and have a restful vacation.
Thanks also to Belgian for explaining that basically the small bondholders will have to settle for partial payment if Argentina defaults. It still involves a large amount of money, no? Is it enough to creat an international financial event?
Cavan Man's list of new lows includes some commodities selling at multi-year lows. Many, such as cotton at 30 cents per pound are amazing, and are well below the cost of production. Efficient cotton farmers costs are in the 50 cents per pound range. There seem to be many valuations in different markets that can not be sustained. I believe they are all connected and may all return to more realistic price levels at the same time. This sure has undermined my faith in the "efficient market theory". When equilibrium is restored the POG and POS many be a bit higher!
Happy weekend to all
Rich


Black Blade (10/27/01; 12:59:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 64263)
Don't Count on a V-Shaped Recovery
http://www.aei.org/eo/eo13401.htm

Snippit:

The American stock market has developed a well-rehearsed reaction to stress: a rapid move from panic to denial. More specifically, the reaction is to envision a V-shaped cycle whenever negative news appears. This amounts to saying, "Sure, things are bad and will be for a few months, but then they will get better again." A rapid descent will be followed by a rapid rebound. This contrasts with a U-shaped scenario, in which decline is followed by a stretch in the doldrums before recovery occurs. This temporarily constructive form of denial allows the stock market to embrace negative news on earnings and the economy as a harbinger of better times ahead. The V-shaped recovery forecast has already been invoked twice as an excuse to ignore bad news in what, so far, has turned out to be a continuing bear market in stocks: once after the sharp earnings disappointments and investment collapse of last fall, and again after the terrorist attacks of September 11.

Dismissing bad news out of faith in the ever-receding V-shaped recovery is dangerous because it delays a market capitulation to a deteriorating global economic environment, and that capitulation is a necessary precondition for ultimate recovery. It will come once the realization that we are entering a protracted recession leads to another nasty sell-off in stocks.

Black Blade: Interesting article. Unemployment, oil, falling profits, etc. suggest that the economic "V" shape recovery expected (or touted) by the Pied Pipers of Wall Street may not happen.


Old Yeller (10/27/01; 12:35:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 64262)
Vintage Holtzman quote

Seems somewhat prescient today;

"Whether we live with too much government or too little,whether the armed man at the door wears a bandana or badge,it is nonetheless up to each of us as individuals to figure how to make the best of our lot in life."

Where'd he go anyway?

Holtzman,check in please,your input is appreciated.

Black Blade (10/27/01; 12:19:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 64261)
@Cavan Man - New Lows

There has been a collapse in the fundamentals nearly across the board in spite of what I think might be a temporary rebound in the stock market indices. There is no foundation holding up this house of cards. There is no positive news to be found anywhere. We are now facing an economy that must deal with problems of such magnitude not seen since the 1930's. "Interesting Times"

Cavan Man (10/27/01; 08:26:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 64260)
Perspective
(More currency coming to a market near you soon!)
The Daily Reckoning
Weekend Edition
October 27-28, 2001
Paris, France
By Addison Wiggin

MARKET REVIEW: The Week That Just Was

The Dow ended a strong week, adding 82 Friday to a 117-
point advance on Thursday. It's now about 60 points
below its close of Sept. 10, the day before the attacks.
The Nasdaq fell 6 to 1768.

For the week the Dow is climbed nearly 4% and the Nasdaq
popped up 6%. Both the Nasdaq and S&P have already
surpassed their Sept. 10 closing levels. Some strong
numbers, indeed.

But, before we begin speculating about the bullishness
of war, we might want to "consider the following,"
suggests Greg Weldon (brought to my attention by John
Mauldin), "in 'the week that just was' we saw a:

- New LOW price for industrial metals, like copper,
nickel, and aluminum
- New LOW price for other industrial commodities, like
cotton and rubber
- STEEP sell off in Gold
- NEW LOW in US industrial economy
- NEW LOW in Singapore Industrial economy
- NEW LOW in Singapore Dollar
- NEW LOW in Hong Kong trade
- NEW LOW in global trade
- SHARP slide in US bank shares
- NEW LOW in US Railcar Loadings
- BREAKDOWN in US house prices
- COLLAPSE to NEW LOW in German Business Confidence
- NEW LOW in European credit creation
- MASSIVE Monthly DEFLATION in German State CPI
- NEW LOW in Italian Consumer Confidence
- NEW LOW in UK Export order books
- NEW LOW in Japanese Bank Index
- NEW LOW in Japanese income
- NEW LOW in Japanese consumption
- NEW LOW in Japanese confidence
- and of COURSE ... NEW LOWS FOR BOND YIELDS."





uponroof (10/27/01; 08:18:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 64259)
Postal Union Leader Threatens Suit
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011027/ts/anthrax_postal_workers_4.html
Good Morning,
Good posts these last few days. Thanks to all.
**********************************************

Postal Union Leader Threatens Suit

Is this just the beginning of an Insurance Industry nightmare? Will suits for safety will quickly evolve into compensation for greed?

Now we are getting down to the nitty gritty....Patriotism or personal monetary protection and gain. This is what the gummint 'asked for' through their overt 'free' market manipulations. The citizens are being told the gummint will settle all monetary scores.

Especially deservedly so since this war has been declared on the citizens. Are they not entitled to military 'pay' of some sort for their involvement?

As gummint seeks to blurr the line between 'free' market and market intervention are they nurturing a citizen army of dependents that will eventually bring them to their financial knees?

Or will this dependence continue to simply enhance faith in the gummint and their FRN (which has no limit of manufacture) eventually bringing the citizens to their knees?

The changes in traditional societal protocol are ocurring faster than anyone can monitor. Is chaos just around the corner?

The CoinGuy (10/27/01; 02:47:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 64258)
FOA...I've seen these guys somewhere before
Last post for awhile, I've had a lot on my mind, but not a lot of time. I'll be leaving for vacation on Tuesday, thank God.

I read the first sentence of your post, and not having finished the rest, I'm going to throw my little diatribe out there.

I saw those euro boys in Saudi territory last year...I also saw them when I was in Tokyo, but they were talking the same language?

The only problem is my friends in Durban see all the travelers speaking Chinese and have opinions, but don't know what to make of all the attention? Do you?

Have a good weekend,

The CoinGuy

The CoinGuy (10/27/01; 02:31:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64257)
Site Steward, USAGOLD, and FOA.......
When are you intelligent men going to help your loyal friends to invest in euros as they see fit? You cannot diversify all of your funds in the metals? It's not as easy to diversify out of the dollar as one believes. Do you want to deal with GS, like I have too? Help everyone out and put them in the right direction. I'll throw the first 25k in that direction. Michael, you have my number.

good luck,

The CoinGuy

The CoinGuy (10/27/01; 02:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 64256)
Lamprey and RPowell...A discussion
I'm going to make this fast because I haven't had the chance to read FOA's latest...

I live in Market making circles, so most of my questions posed to the board are for thought and nothing else. I know the answers before I ask, but I want others to know as well...I'm sorry, but I wan't others to think as I do, because I find it has been profitable...call me selfish, but this board means a lot to me.

RPowell...I went over and read this "Lance Lewis'" statements, he seems to be a rather intelligent fella. He is a friend of Doug Noland right? I don't think you could go wrong following his advice for the interim. I myself trade the Profunds, I particularly like the URPIX, if you're looking for less volatility, you might look at GRZZX(he trades long as well as short, which means less volatility). I have distibuted the better part of 30m in our trading accounts that I manage since Wednesday..take it for whats it worth...In this market, It is a traders market and nothing else. Buy and hold is for, I won't say it sorry, and be careful. At this point, I would look to preserve capital, I think Michael can help here(hint hint).

You can look at the day to day as I trade, but a pauper could tell, you haven't taken FOA seriously when you ask me about the future of the gold market..as well as the stock markets...these will be traded as the MM(market makers) please. Which looks toward distribution from the middle class to, well out of the middle class. Of course this is my opinion. All other opinions of mine would follow FOA to the Nth degree. I have read history, I look to history as a path, to follow others to the future. being a young man, though following the trail, I'm a snared master angular award for the whole story. Only if I could get this #7 hook outta my mouth...


As far as Argentina, this will be the excitement for a week or so...The account they drew upon from New York(CMB/JPM) for about 6 billion is a drop in the bucket...I expect this situation to get interesting, we shall see how the US markets react, I don't think McDonough came in with the saviour package, if thats what you're wondering.

Rich, Lamprey, if you want specific direction, I'll tell you my opinion, and that is we are seeing manipulative action to the upside that will not sustain itself...if you DCA short here you shouldn't be hurt to bad. the only problem is I'm not in charge of the crystal ball this week, so all opinions are mine...I just wouldn't be in such a hurry to profit...look at your neighbor...whats his delimma? Trade the range, profit, and keep your opinions to your vestpocket, in this market, this is the only advice I could give. The overall picture should be given away to the writings of FOA. Again, this is just my humble opinion, but history has a tendency to look forward to the future...I personally don't care for what I see, but what do I know.

good luck,

The (physical)CoinGuy



Belgian (10/27/01; 02:04:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 64255)
@ R.P. # 64241 Argentina tears....
FWIW and only the european part of it.
High yielding Argentina bonds have been sold by the banksters to the general public, during the period of strong declining interest rates in europ and the US.
These bonds sold like hot cakes, whatever the rating or risk. If Argentina defaults (theoretically), the repayment of these bonds will be negociated. All the small bondholders, will scramble to sell what is left on value (?) of these bonds, to the "negociator" (with Argentina) for 2 times nothing. The negociator will buy up these almost zero papers (bonds), with the exact knowledge of the guaranteed left worth, that has been negociated. The classic procedure in similar cases. That's how small shrimps must contribute to the making of fortunes !
Most on this little globe can be very cruel and ugly, you know.

Netking (10/27/01; 00:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 64254)
Funny Osama bin Laden site
http://yonkis.ya.com/imagenes5/guerra/talibamm.htm
Iy you want to laugh turn up the speakers, sit back & relax.



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