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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

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(The Gold Trail)

("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/27/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

The Invisible Hand (01/27/01; 23:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 46694)
Timing - parallellism?
Timing

Mr Gresham (01/27/01; 18:37:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 46663)
�
Also -- the prospect of Euro on the horizon was not enough to shake the dollar world. Needed to see it in action for a couple years before believers would be made.

Dollar has had more legs than Another/FOA imagined then. Timing was off. So, is dollar stronger now for having survived longer? No; it just has fewer left of an unknown number of rabbits to pull out of its hat. Timing is the hardest part of contrarian prediction. Trend followers got it easy -- until.

Trail Guide (1/18/2001; 9:32:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 45846)
�
Who among us, ten or twenty years ago, would have ever thought the fed would still be exploding our dollar production today? Back then, such an "inflation of the currency", over this long a time span, was unthinkable. It would surely lead to an immediate destruction of the dollar. But, here we are, watching as dollar production is gunned for the ????? time.

Everyone with any knowledge at all, the Ruffs, the Browns, the Schultzs, etc.,,,, all knew any such currency inflation, as we see today, would send the world off the dollar standard! Where would we all go for money relief? Why, gold and silver, of course! But, what happened? Well, the world conomic structure changed and those extra years sold time to others for the creation of Another currency.

You see,,,,,,, this was the trick (or ploy) of "one world trade". This concept alone produced the extra demand that needed "trading dollars". This short term transition, aided with cheap oil deals, demanded "digital money" for trade, not savings. It was this new "one worldeconomic expansion demand" that put our dollar so much more "in play" for it's settlement function. It's value as a savings utility was not in demand, but it's need to denominate and close settlement was. This exceptional surge in trading demand overcame it's loss of demand as a "holder of value".

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 23:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46693)
ThaiGold
I believe you've confused me with another poster.

ThaiGold (01/27/01; 23:48:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 46692)
Silver Bullets...
Attn: (ET) (BH) (Cavan Man) (Lamprey_65) (FOA)
All: and especially (ET) (BH) (Cavan Man) (Lamprey_65) (FOA)

Today I have read all your posts in response and comment to me. Much appreciated
as always. Thank you. Many feel that I am picking on FOA/ANOTHER or yourselves,
in using terminology like "Lemmings", "Giants", or whatever, has maybe offended
you or made some of you feel uneasy. I plead guilty to trying to make people in
this forum open their minds and rethink alot that has previously been accepted
as gospel. I know that many of you here worship everything they write, and can't
wait for each upcoming installment, to praise and fall all over yourselves to
wal...er.. wonder of it. And I also know that it is herein considered vastly
inappropriate, impolite, and unfathomable to dispute, criticize, or condemn any
of their writings. Indeed, in the past some errant posters herein have instantly
lost their posting priviledges for having done so. And I may too just for having
written this. So you can see, what I'm up against when I write to post an essay
that contains contrarian theories or fresh thinking. Trying to spur others to do
a little of their own. It isn't easy. I try to explain things as I see them. And
I try to stay within bounds of respect and politeness. And within the Forum's
Guidelines. Those are important to me. Yet, so is (correct/new) knowledge.

Indeed, Randy and I have such respect for rules that we mutually agree that it's
a violation of Guideline #4 to even so much as post my new website's url here
anymore. It's a no-no. Even though I *created* the website's latest features to
be a resource especially for members of this Forum. I have not posted, nor have
I asked anyone else to post, my website's url into any of the other forums. It
was also to be a spot where I could put interesting and informative charts, data
and other significant items that could be included in my USAgold posts, directly
as links. For example, long-term gold; oil; and silver charts to illustrate some
points I wanted to make in some essays. Well, I cannot do that. Is that my loss,
or everyone's.?. Lamprey_65 suggested I archive all of "ANOTHER"s writings at my
website. I'd be happy to do so, but I cannot post my url for you to find them.
Besides, I believe that the "ANOTHER" archive already exists, right here in the
USAgold forum's extra-feature links shown at the top of the Forum page.

Some of you posted or "agreed" that I seemed to feel ignored or antagonistic for
that. Maybe that's human nature. But I feel strongly that many posters here
avoid any commentary whatsoever directly to/or/about me, simply because they
are afraid to appear supportive of someone perceived to be anti-FOA, etc. Or
they hope I'll just go away if given the silent treatment. Afterall, wouldn't
you, if virtually all of your hard work and writing was constantly suppressed
of any comments simply acknowledging it.?. For fear of being tarred with the
same brush by the mainstream peers. Or fearing conformity-or-else-exile.

We need to encourage more posters with different outlooks. Believe me, there
are many of them lurking out there. But are afraid to post their true thoughts.
The emails I receive are far more (secretly) favorable to my views as opposed
to "others", by a wide margin. Yet, here in the forum, you won't be aware of it.
Do you come here to learn.?. To share insights.?. Or to have a LoveFest.?.

Cordially

ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

ThaiGold (01/27/01; 23:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46691)
Gold Vision Quest ... Old/New Brain Spasm's
Attn: Attn: slingshot (1/27/2001; 11:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46631)
slingshot writes:
[snip]
{re:}E.T. msg 46627
After reading the post I get the feeling that the CB's are not in control of
this gold manipulation but the oil producers. They may have been one time, no
more.
Considering how the oil producing nations in the east would love to see the oil
gussling west in dire straits as they suck the life out of the CB's (gold). Run
the price of gold by increase in oil value. Which calls the gold shorts and
dumps the markets.
The only thing missing as per ThaiGold is the drugs and the CB's are force to
launder the money by Blackmail I presume.
I think I just had a brain spasm.
[unsnip]

[ThaiGold response:]
Indeed. A nice healthy brain spasm. The Oil Producers (currently) obscene profit
("GOOP") are calling the shots. Doing it themselves, flooding (their) gold hoard
into the markets to drive down the POG (temporarily) and with precise timing, it
is quickly bought back (at lowest POG prices) and is a very profitable bonus to
their manipulations. At the same time they buy whatever *additional* gold they
wish, to convert/exchange their (daily/weekly/etc) fiats (EUROs included) into
their prefered/cherished gold. It takes not a Rocket Scientist to enVision it.

Their newer scheme is a refinement/replacement of the oil-for-gold scenario that
existed at the time of "ANOTHER"s circa 97-98 writings. That one was too complex
fragile, cumbersome, and for many other reasons, fell apart at the seams.
Many in this forum fail to grasp that. It's old thinking. The new reality must
now be refered to as Oil-to-Dollars-to-Gold and Drugs-to-Dollars-to-Gold, all of
which is sorta "inclusive" in my new-thinking theory. It answers alot of evasive
questions and addresses issues that (to me) were left hanging or conveniently
left unresolved or unaddressed by the prodigous "Another/FOA/TrailGuide" essays.

ThaiGold

Black Blade (01/27/01; 22:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 46690)
Interesting ABC Expose on Government Tonight
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/2020/2020/2020Friday_010119_stosselgoestowash.html
Good show on government tonight. "John Stossel goes to Washington." As I have said in past posts - government is one of the best scams ever devised by man. There is no real difference between say the US government and the Mafia. Foe example, don't pay your "protection money" to the government, they steal it at the point of a gun, and don't pay your "protection money" to the Mafia, then get it stolen at the point of a gun. OK, so maybe the Mafia breaks your legs too. Anyway, excellent expose on everything from government incompetence, lazy bureaucrats, and imminent domain law (government theft). Rep. Ron Paul is featured in a segment as well. Interseting.

ET (01/27/01; 22:50:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46689)
SLaTT, Randy

Hey SLaTT - am I pronouncing that right? <g> ANOTHER posted at Kitco (another forum), back in 97-98 creating quite a stir at the time. It turned out that our friend, FOA (Friend of ANOTHER) of Trail Guide fame, was posting his "Thoughts!". It was sparkling commentary at the time as it is today and met with much ridicule as well as much amazement. He had a completely different perspective. His posts, as Randy has noted, are available in "Footsteps".

Randy - of course you are right. It is all a matter of perspective, as ANOTHER said! If you like I can transfer the archives to you already in HTML format as that is how I swiped them in the first place. Unfortunately, my archive only goes back as far as 2-15-1998.

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 22:49:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46688)
Point taken...
However, I think it has caused much confusion over the years on this and other forums. This is why semi-mysterious internet posters prophesizing the future doesn't give me a warm fuzzy.

If you're American, you should be purchasing some bullion to secure yourself against the fiat dollar. What happens in other lands should act as example of what could happen here, but that's it. Once again, it's wealth preservation - I know, preaching to the choir.

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/27/01; 22:37:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46687)
lamprey_65
Yes, lamprey, but please appreciate this:
If ANOTHER were himself Polish (as in your example), we would EXPECT HIM to say "the dollar and gold will rise together".

Such is the point I strive to make.

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 22:33:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46686)
Randy
Randy, I've never liked this "gold price rising in other currencies" argument. It just doesn't stand up to common sense as it merely shows the strength of the dollar vs. other currencies. Let's face it - gold just didn't start running higher on it's own accord in foreign currencies - no, the dollar ran strongly from Oct '99 until late last year...that's why other currencies fell and gold is priced higher in foreign lands. It's not a great mystery.

The dollar is, whether we like it or not (and if you're American, you should like it - while it lasts), THE reserve currency...it makes all the difference. And since I'm American, the price of gold in Polish Zloties matters not a whit to me.

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/27/01; 22:09:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46685)
ET and lamprey_65...regarding "the dollar and gold will rise together"
It is happening right under your noses...right now.

Of course, you would not see this if you are looking at things through dollar-colored glasses....meaning that you are measuring value in dollars.

For instance, how can you say that ANOTHER was half right, that only the dollar has risen? I ask you, "Is not a dollar STILL priced at one dollar?" Yes! So how can you say it has risen?

Ohhhhhhhhh..... now I see. <wink> You have been measuring the dollar rise in terms of OTHER CURRENCIES. Please apply this same courtesy of measurement to our dear gold.

I am sure that gold's flatness against the dollar, like the George Washington dollar bill's flatness against the dollar, will translate into this "rise" we speak of as seen from around the world.

Amazing how bright and sunny the darkest world may become from the right perspective.

On another note, ET, you suggested: "I sent a copy of this ANOTHER archive to both Ross and Peter. Hopefully they can host it somewhere where all can read! Maybe ThaiGold could host it at his site!"

Are you perhaps overlooking the obvious, or was that your kind recognition that many activities here in The Tower surely already have me overburdened like a rented mule? Providing html format for these various early posts -- as were the basis for "The Footsteps of Giants" -- has, in fact, been long on my agenda. Seeing this renewed interest in these posts at this time has prompted/inspired me to move it WAY up to number THREE on my priority list. It shall be done by the first part of the week. On this you have my word.

ET, thank you for bringing forward again these remarkable, discussion-worthy posts.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/27/01; 21:38:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46684)
!!!!! I forgot to add....
all this ANOTHER stuff is starting to freak me out! What gives? Are these the quotable remnants of someone long deceased? Broke? Or who has since directed his interest to some other pursuit? CONSIDER THIS A CALL TO "ANOTHER" TO MAKE YOURSELF KNOWN AGAIN! You have impressed the heck out of many posters of whose opinions I respect! COME FORTH! (Please.)

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/27/01; 21:29:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46683)
???????????Who? Is this ANOTHER?????
I am intrigued by the ANOTHER retrospective taking place on the forum. I jumped on this car only recently, can someone quickly bring me up to speed, on what appears to be widespread acknowledgement of the prescient capabilities of ANOTHER? Is ANOTHER still out there? Has he posted recently? Is what he said in the past relevant today, beyond coincidence?

silvercollector (01/27/01; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46682)
Mr. ET
May I please be added to your e-mail list for the 'Another'
archives.

Thanks in advance.

silvercollector@hotmail.com

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 20:37:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46681)
Cavan Man and ET
I find the writings of both ANOTHER and FOA interesting, and I do agree with much of what they have to say about wealth.

Sometimes when I seem as if I'm taking others to task for their shortcomings, I'm often talking to myself, warning myself of MY OWN shortcomings....and yes, I very often feel the need to explain this.

As for the internet bubble -- I did OK...knowing what I know now, I really should have made a killing. It was a short, profitable learning experience...can't complain about that.

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 20:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46680)
ET, lamprey_65
How 'bout this thought:

With all of the digital wealth that has been created the past twenty years, perhaps it is time for a physical inventory? Seriously! I remember FOA said to one time and I paraphrase: "It's time to count what is mine and what is yours".

I send my cyber thanks also. Good evening....CM

ET (01/27/01; 20:22:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46679)
lamprey_65

Hey lamprey - excellent advice! I will watch my step.

Let me tell you what I find interesting since ANOTHER posted this stuff. First, the Washington Agreement turned out to be a pact not to sell anymore gold into the market other than what was previously agreed to. What happened? Gold temporarily took off. Oil has risen. We will see if anymore large quantities of gold are dumped into the market to keep the price of oil down in dollars. By his analysis, when the gold being dumped by CB's was curtailed, oil, the dollar and gold would rise. So far, he seems to be right with the exception of gold. I would like to know exactly what stopped gold at $330 when it started to spike up. Maybe someone will tell us. I suspect it was a massive enlargement of the paper gold market.

At any rate, and I hope you get the chance to read all this old stuff, ANOTHER's contribution to my thinking was in getting me to realize how the world looks at wealth. I now know why his stuff was so difficult to digest the first time around. It essentially stood my world on its head! I used to trade futures and actually did so successfully but after reading of the nature of the game and seeing some confirmation, I decided I was in way over my head. My view of wealth has changed and I'll have to admit, I sleep well. All I worry about anymore is how to shave the last strokes off my handicap.

You are right - beware of gurus, but also, understand wisdom when you hear it. In the few months ANOTHER posted, I learned more about wealth and what it is than all the time previous. I can only send my cyber thanks.

BTW - you have to be kidding about that internet stuff, right? Were you able to actually make all the money on the run up and sell at the top? Did you then change it all to gold? If so, you da man! Thanks for the response.

Henri (01/27/01; 20:13:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46678)
Truer words never spoken
http://www.hillsdale.edu
Today I received the latest edition of "Imprimis", a publication of Hillsdale College. An audio clip of Mark Helprin's address is available at the website above.

The closing remarks are applicable to this discussion on gold as well although he was speaking of the way out of our political quagmire of lies propogated recently.

"...Better defeat with the truth in sight than a thousand hollow victories without it."

ThaiGold (01/27/01; 20:09:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46677)
Great.!. You Still Have Your Head. ... And Brain.
Attn: Pandagold (1/27/2001; 2:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46612)
Hi Pandagold

My "off with your head" reply was simply an acknowledgement
of your short apology-post of having used "Thai" instead of
the full handle "ThaiGold". And hence, my (comical) reply to
you was addressed to "Panda", not "Pandagold" to show that
we all can make mistakes. But, punished we must be anyway
so the old monarchish phrase: Off with his head, paraphrased.

It was not a response nor comment upon *anything* else you
had posted. Especially, since so-far I have enjoyed and agree
with most all of your enlightening posts. Please continue.!.

ThaiGold

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 20:04:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46676)
TheStranger
I don't buy the hyperinflation jive either. But, then again, I don't speak jive. (remember Airplane?)

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 20:01:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46675)
lamprey_65
As a rule, I do not like dealing in absolutes. Also, I'm a real b#$# buster and inveterate skeptic; especially of your "gurus". However (comma) this Another/FOA stuff is really different. Their timing stinks and that is probably a good thing but they are genuine don't you think? Or, do you think we are chatting with MK and George? :>)

Henri (01/27/01; 20:00:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46674)
Java Man Post #46655
I don't know Java Man...I just don't know. That is why I read here. It seemed though that FOA was not talking about just all the dollars in existance, but the whole of everything that anyone anywhere holds valauable. Perhaps this real wealth...even if all dollars burn...would be enough to take us to 6.

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 19:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46673)
ET
Not to worry; I'm just tossing out softballs to the crowd on a slow night. I do believe almost every scenario has been carefully thought through. Thanks...CM

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 19:51:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46672)
Mr Gresham, ET
Gresham: You have a very good mind.
ET: Thanks for the homework you're doing! I don't believe I have read these passages before. Perhaps Trail Guide will comment upon them.

I'd much prefer Stranger's $500 POG and $60 for NEM. Hello "TheStranger"

We live today in a world turned upside down. I say and believe that anything is possible and, nothing would surprise me.

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 19:43:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46671)
A few observations
As human beings, most of us show habit of wanting to see people either as good or evil, right or wrong, while discounting the examples which go against our assessment... we paint with too broad a brush. For example, Hitler is now considered evil - George Washington as good. In general that is true, however, it does not mean that Hitler never did a good deed or that Washington didn't commit bad acts.

The same can be said of the ideas of individuals. We tend to either want to follow people blindly or say they're "full of it". We like to have "gurus", **and the less we personally know about someone, the more likely we are to follow them!** It is a human failing we must fight..we must use our gift of critical thought. The truth is that everyone is wrong at sometime - even if they are right the MAJORITY of the time.

The point I'm getting at, of course, is that ANOTHER (and OTHERS!), may be 95% right, or 5% right, but I strongly doubt if they are 100% right! (And I especially doubt it when the topic is as complicated as currencies and the gold market).

To be right all the time would mean one is not human, for it would mean perfect knowledge, which NEVER exists in mortals.

"The dollar and gold will rise together".

Was he right (it hasn't yet happened), or did the dollar perform its blowoff top without the paper price of gold moving higher?

"Risk not your wealth in paper, we enter a period of truth." (1-10-1998)

What, and miss the entire tech/internet bubble - where millions of paper dollars were made that could have been turned into gold holdings?!

"How do you get oil to rise? Today, we stop our CBs from selling gold!" (11-5-1997)

Well, I hate to tell you, but oil went up with continued gold selling from CB's.

Beware of gurus.

ET (01/27/01; 19:38:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46670)
Cavan Man

Hey CM - I didn't mean to bum you out! Have another Stout!

You wrote;

"If Trail Guide's forecasting is accurate why, what good will gold do us all?

1. Physical confiscation?
2. Confiscation vis a vis taxation?
3. Gold spent buying the basic food groups and shelter?

Are we going back to the stone age and, what's the point?"

I always felt when reading ANOTHER (FOA), that they anticipate change, not a disaster. The good gold will do you is to allow you to transfer your stored up hours of labor over time without depreciation due to currency fluctuation, the same thing it did for the Russian citizens recently, as well as others. It is the purpose of gold.

If they come for your gold, don't be home. If they want to tax it, avoid them. I'm sure a tiny amount of gold will sustain you and your loved ones for a long time. Make sure you have more than a tiny amount if you still want to drink that expensive wine! <g>

BTW - I sent a copy of this ANOTHER archive to both Ross and Peter. Hopefully they can host it somewhere where all can read! Maybe ThaiGold could host it at his site! <g>

TheStranger (01/27/01; 19:25:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46669)
tedw
Normally there is a lag of about a year between a monetary action and its reflection in the real economy. Financial markets, however, often anticipate the real economy by up to 6 months or so.

The latest acceleration in money growth is not what I would consider an isolated event, however. I would expect price increases, which are already well-entrenched in the energy markets, for example, to spread to other areas of the economy in the months immediately ahead. A sudden break in the dollar could also move the inflation time table forward.

I do not see the makings of a "hyper"inflation for the dollar, however. While I admit there may be room for disagreement over the meaning of that term, I feel, nonetheless, that it is way too easily bandied about.

Thanks.

Lafisrap (01/27/01; 19:18:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46668)
JavaMan msg#: 46664)

JavaMan: And finally "How do you get oil to rise? Today, we stop our CBs from selling gold!" (11-5-1997) [Quote of Another]. This, I don't understand. Does anyone?

Lafisrap: How about this. The CBs stop selling gold (both
paper gold and the real thing). Less gold is thus available
to gold buyers. Subsequently, POG rises. Since the oil-producing countries are ultimately interested in gold, not dollars, in exchange for oil, they raise the price of
oil so that they can continue the oil for gold exchange via the dollar. Gold and oil continue to flow in opposite directions.

ET (01/27/01; 19:17:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46667)
Cavan Man

This post stands out for its encompassing of the history of currencies and what they have wrought. Perhaps not coincidently FOA has returned to this theme recently. In light of today's energy markets, it is a fascinating read.

"For those of simple thought, such as I, gold is good to own.

"But, for those of need for reason, read from one who speaks to me:

"The Cornering of Gold!

"The final outcome of "Too Much Oil", "Too little Gold" and "Worldwide Digital Currencies".

"For years the governments could create currency out of nothing. But, during the last eight years, the modern
currency systems have taken the final step. As digital charges in a computer, they have become but "emotional
thoughts" of trading value. This is to say, "a currency unit exists only during the moment of trade". During this time,
when real things are in transit, paper currency has value as an expected "trade completion". It exists as a human
thought. Complete the transaction and the thought is gone, the currency unit dies.

"Think about it? If for a time the world commerce stopped. All would live from what they had for, say a week.
During this week, all currencies and the debts that back them would not exist! Without trade, modern currencies
have no use, no value, no purpose.

"During our modern age, a currency can be anything. Corn, lamps, cars, tables, anything could be used as a concept
for a digital currency. You see, it exists in concept only. Even gold could be used as modern money. The real item
is not used, only the concept of "how it would be used during the transaction of commerce". "Real value is not
needed for modern money, as it is only used as a trading unit"!

"What does all of this have to do with oil and gold? For most people, nothing. But for some people, everything!
You see, some persons do not want to hold an "operating business" and the present value that represents, as their
wealth. Nor do they want to hold encumbered assets or debts of others. Wealth, to these people, is not represented
by a "digital trading unit of commerce".

"History has shown how many persons, or groups of persons, have tried and failed while trying to corner a
commodity. Greed was always the factor, as acquiring real wealth to pass on to family or country was never the
aim. Using paper currencies ( or debts of the same ) to purchase these commodities, always brought on the undoing
of the scam. During some years, even gold was used as a purchasing unit, as gold was the currency of that time.

"But, today we come to a different period, with a different factor and circumstance. For during no period of history
has an entity used a commodity to corner another commodity! The intent is not to "corner", but the result will be
the same. This action is coming about because of a gross, huge mismatch of the value of gold and oil! We are not
talking about the price of these items ( in any currency ) . We speak of the total amount of physical gold,
worldwide and the total amount of oil worldwide. During the last twenty years, the world has made oil an
absolute necessity for life as we know it. During the same time, gold has been degraded to a "kind of commodity
that we may need sometime but, I'm not sure". With the public, government and the business community holding
these thoughts, it is easy to understand which item is needed first and which would be dumped. In this day, people
would sell gold for oil, no contest!

"Consider the amount of oil that is used daily. Consider the future value that this consumption places on reserves in
the ground. Compare this to the amount of gold consumed daily. Notice I said "consumed daily", not "traded
daily". Clearly, the consumption of oil compared to the consumption of gold places a much higher value on oil
reserves than gold reserves. With no replacement for the use of oil ( at present to lower prices ) and no "needed"
use for gold in today's thought, we have the ingredients for a mismatch in value of epic proportions!

"The supply of oil was a problem in the 70s. Several nations actually cut off the supply to make a political point.
Many thought that the "embargo" was an attempt at "cornering" the oil market. We may never know the true
reasons for the large increase in the price of oil, but one thing is clear. The value of oil in today's economy is of
far greater importance to maintaining present "asset values" than at any time in the past. Today, the future value of
all commerce is "well bid" into every asset value! Without oil in good supply , at a currency price that allows a
reasonable lifestyle, all assets would lose much relative value.

"This "need" for supply is not lost to governments or their Central Banks. No single asset class or segment of the
economy, by itself is more valuable than the supply of oil. This brings us back full circle, to the problem of
"digital currencies" and the "mind set" of much of the simple ( and rich ) third world persons. To many of these
people, wealth is the surplus of life's work that you pass on after death. Currency is something you, spend, trade
or hold for a few years. It isn't wealth.

"Gold ( and silver ) is "on the list", so to speak.

"This same mindset creates a worry in the back of many a mind in the oil states. It is clear to most, that even a small
amount of gold in the asset mix, makes one appear "less western" and therefore "less foolish" when the concept of
value and currency are discussed. But, the problem has always been that oil is "so large" in relation to gold that
any attempt to convert, even a portion of ones assets creates a distortion in the markets. Of further concern is that;
everyone knows that western minds don't like or want gold, but if they think you like it they will trade it up in
price for the sake of "sticking it to you".

"Enter the world of "paper gold".

"Yes, gold just like currencies has been "digitized". If you brought gasoline, made from oil sold under $20/bl, you
are part of this system! For just as the "digital currencies" are created for trading only, paper gold was created for
the trade of oil. In a very broad sense, it was created as an "extra" or "kicker" to allow the purchase of small
amounts of cheap gold in return for a full supply of oil. In reality, this gold paper represents the future production
of gold ( from the ground ) to balance the reserves of oil ( also in the ground ) . The huge amount of "paper gold"
traded and outstanding today is now in excess of all the gold in existence above ground! In essence, it is of the
same value as the currencies, "the thoughts of nations, blowing in the wind". The Central Banks gave value to this
paper by selling and lending some of their gold stocks. But, as economies became hooked on cheap oil, and
demanded more of the same, these same CBs had no choice but to use fractional reserve gold lending" to pump the
gold market.

"Now we approach the final act.

"There is one oil state that no one will play for a fool. The CBs will sell all of their gold or the nations will
nationalize all mines and operate them at a loss. One way or another, most of the paper gold market will be
honored. Why? Because oil will bid for gold if they do not! We are not talking about an oil embargo or rising oil
prices. Indeed, oil will become very cheap for those that can supply physical gold. This deal will not require the
agreement of all oil states. Only one can start this, the others will gladly follow.

"A large oil producer, with plenty of reserves and unused capacity, can say: We now value gold at $10, $20 or
$30,000/oz.. That is the rate we will use to sell oil. We will go to "full" production and offer at $10.00us/bl.. Pay
us in physical gold and USD ( or EUROs ) as a 50% mix to the above rate to equal $10/bl..

"It would be a deal like none other! Oil, worldwide, would drop to $10.00/bl and every economy would do very
well, IF they had gold. All gold would immediately be arbitraged to the above prices thereby creating a "world
oil currency" large enough to handle oil. This creating of a new "specialized currency" will be the result of the
first "commodity corner" that ever succeeded!" (1-17-1998)

ET (01/27/01; 19:09:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46666)
Cavan Man

Here are several more passages Cavan Man. Good question for FOA! I want to post one post in particular in its entirety. Hang with me!

"Oil is only priced in US$ worldwide. Gold is only priced in US$ worldwide. It is important that this process of
dollar backing continue, as it is the only thing keeping this "digital currency" alive! It is also important that all
other currencies seek the US$ for backing, as they would not survive on their own. Why would not these countries
just hold oil or gold for backing? Because oil is not buried in their back yard and real gold would bankrupt them
in a minute. You see, a country can buy all the paper gold they want as that gold remains on deposit at the BIS
controlled CBs. But, if they try to buy real gold outside the LBMA system the price would explode and the BIS
would not come to rescue their currency. All real bullion outside the system must remain available at production
cost prices ( in US$ ) for the cross trading of oil thru the LBMA. There are only two threats to the world fiat
currency system at present. The oil states could stop buying US$ for oil and drop all paper gold for real bullion.
Or, the masses could buy up all the physical
supplies thereby breaking the OIL/GOLD/US$ bond. The paper gold market controlled by the BIS/LBMA system
is, alone equal to more than all the gold in existence. This market works like a hybrid currency using
approximately twenty to forty percent of all CB gold in leased form as backing. The paper behind the lease is a
form of CB/gold and is used as a "fractional reserve" that has built this huge market. This system has worked and
does work well. You have but to look at the good value that is received when dollar debt ( digital currency ) is
purchased with oil. The world works! But this system cannot continue. There is a limit to how far gold can be
inflated in quantity using "fractional reserve leasing" as backing. The fatal flaw was found in the "forward sales"
of unmined gold. The whole system counted on the expansion of cheap mining techniques to supply much more
gold at a cheaper price far into the future. This happened to a degree for a few years but then just leveled off. Now
the LBMA continues to flood the market with paper gold as if nothing has changed! But it has, we reached
production cost! That wasn't suppose to happen until the mining industry had raised supply many times
what it is today.

"To close:

"Notice that we say "they use oil to buy gold" and "they use oil to buy dollars". You should try to think in these
terms as oil is the real value here. Oil functions as the true gold for the modern world. Indeed, it was only when
the world started needing oil for everything that gold was dropped as backing for the US$ and replaced with oil!

"The falling price of physical gold only hurts the mining industry ( and it's stockholders ) and leveraged paper
buyers. All others benefit from a lower value of gold. Look now as even the western public are buying coins. They
help themselves even in the face record Dow Jones.

"Will the BIS try to settle this unbalanced market by destroying LBMA? Or will they drive the CBs to lease another
20% in an effort to inflate this "paper gold currency". Just like the fiat dollar, if inflated it loses value. This is not
lost to the oil states." (12-12-1997)

"Someone once said, "noone wants gold, that's why the US$ price keeps falling". Many thinking ones laugh at such
foolish chatter. They know that the price of gold is dropping precisely because "too many people are buying it"!
Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not better for you to acquire gold over years, at better prices?
If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to
follow! An experienced guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see. The real money is selling ALL
FORMS of paper gold and buying physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is loosing value much, much
faster than metal. Some paper will disappear all together in a fire of epic proportions! The massive trading
continues at LBMA, but something is now missing? The CBs are no longer lending! They will not anymore! We
have reached production costs. Oil will have nothing of "gold paper" if gold must stay in the ground! And a CB
values the wishes of oil far above it's return of leased gold! Hear me now, "if gold tries to go lower than US$
$280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see"! They must! They will! I know. For no currency
system could stand if "Oil" were to bid for gold!

"Oil has kept "the deal" as the CBs sold paper to lower golds price! All is fair. Asia will bid for gold not as in the
past. They now know that the free flow of oil has more value than the Pacific economy. But the price that was paid
may be more than the world currency system can endure.

"To close:

"The US$ has risen on a flight of fear. That will now end as the LBMA shorts are given to wolves. If this fire burns
too hot, gold will turn and it's trading halted. The price of oil will explode as gold becomes the "world oil
currency"! Even now oil has locked the IMFs gold, Asia will bid against them no more. We come to extreame
times.

"Risk not your wealth in paper, we enter a period of truth." (1-10-1998)

"CMAX: I can not oppose your long term view. But, I can change the contents. Oil went from appx. 1.50/bbl./+/- to
$20.00/+/- and the world changed. Many 3rd world countries ( mexico, exp. ) have been using the same currencies
for many years, even as they were destroyed. The people only adjusted by adding the US$ as a value/mix. The
same will happen when/if oil bids for gold. All nations will use the same digital currencies for all trade, but will
also add gold to the value. The world will not end, it will change! As some say "not enough gold to use as a
currency", I say "gold not valued high enough to use as currency". At a high enough value ( price ) it is an excellent
currency! Oil now backs the US$ as a "digital world reserve trading currency". When oil backs gold as an
"additional value to digital currencies" your view will be different." (1-11-1998)

RossL (01/27/01; 18:42:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46665)
ET, JavaMan, Tree in the Forest

@ET
I would like to have a copy of all your ANOTHER archives if it would be possible for you to email them to me. I would like to put together a webpage someday, although right now I am very busy. r_o_s_s_l@yahoo.com

@JavaMan
My experience with Win2000 is that 256mb ram is the minimum for acceptable performance. If you needed that much for your applications in NT, now you need to add more for the OS bloat of Windows 2000.

@Tree in the Forest
Thank you for the history. JavaMan's problem is not so much a hardware issue as it is a Microsoft issue with the ever expanding memory requirements.

As a side note, the microprocessor performance of the AMD Athlon has now surpassed Intel in a big way. My next prediction for 2001 is that Intel stock takes a big swan dive compared to AMD. (not investment advice)

JavaMan (01/27/01; 18:39:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46664)
Sir ET, you quoted...
"Nations will defend the system at all cost They will never sell US$ treasury debt as that
debt is their currency!"

JavaMan: Given the time this was said, it seems to me to be incredibly prophetic as today we read discussions on that very topic, yet it seems no one is breaking ranks (as prophesied).

And "The dollar will soar as a final defense! As part of this defense they will allow oil to rise as
oil is priced in dollars."

JavaMan: Ok, oil is up from $10 to $30 dollars...also prophetic given the date..

And finally "How do you get oil to rise? Today, we stop our CBs from selling gold!" (11-5-1997)

JavaMan: This, I don't understand. Does anyone?

Mr Gresham (01/27/01; 18:37:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 46663)
ET, Cavan Man
ET -- Thanks for bringing back and excerpting Another's posts; I'd been meaning to re-read and you've probably given me the appetizer I needed.

CM -- Were Another & FOA looking more at the fundamentals (as we tend to do) from 1997's viewpoint. Thinking that big investors and institutions would flock to physical as they saw what was on the horizon.

What did they underestimate? The flight to dollars during world crises? The willingness of US consumers to load up on debt and home re-fi's to boost the bubble? The luring in of Europeans into the dollar bubble? (Another mentioned the strengthening of dollar with oil going up -- didn't foresee these other consequences of dollar rise?)

All of these result in a longer survival of dollar -- and steeper plunge.

Also -- the prospect of Euro on the horizon was not enough to shake the dollar world. Needed to see it in action for a couple years before believers would be made.

Dollar has had more legs than Another/FOA imagined then. Timing was off. So, is dollar stronger now for having survived longer? No; it just has fewer left of an unknown number of rabbits to pull out of its hat. Timing is the hardest part of contrarian prediction. Trend followers got it easy -- until.

Hey, why didn't we all short dotcoms at NAZ 5000? Your best contrarian bets are made when your stomach is turning somersaults, right?

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 18:28:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46662)
ET
If Trail Guide's forecasting is accurate why, what good will gold do us all?

1. Physical confiscation?
2. Confiscation vis a vis taxation?
3. Gold spent buying the basic food groups and shelter?

Are we going back to the stone age and, what's the point?

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 18:15:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46661)
Trail Guide Question
When Another first began posting it seems, he expected the events he forecast to come to pass in the near term--then. Now, almost four years later, you continue to spend much time and effort forecasting the same message. Why? Also, what changed the timing of those events; Asia, Russia and LTCM etc? The global economy and monetary regime was not stable enough to absorb a shock of the magnitude you suggest???

Orville Goldenbacher (01/27/01; 17:44:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46660)
Nazi Gold
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9806/19/swiss.banks.reax/index.html

I was doing a little research on Jean-Pierre Roth, president of the Swiss National Bank, and key speaker at the Davos Summit.

I ran into this article on Nazi Gold, stolen from the Jews during W.W.II and hidden in Swiss Banks, this article is from 1998.

The Jewish people recected a 600 million dollar offer from the swiss banks, but turned it down.

I was just wondering if anybody knew if they ever settled this, or, if it is still on going? What kind of progress has been made since 1998?

ET (01/27/01; 17:40:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46659)
Cavan Man

Here are a few more parses from ANOTHER's old stuff. He has made several predictions which, as of yet, have not come to pass. Nevertheless, his writings are fascinating. I may post a few more later if the forum stays slow.

"The actual buying of gold ( no other metals ) by huge players is not a prediction, it is ongoing. In 1997 it exploded!
The price of the metal in currency terms will be made for all to see as it moves quickly upward for a very short
period of time ( 30 days ) . After that only black market traders and third world noones will understand it's price!
When is this going to happen? I have no idea. Is there anything to look for that will tell us when the problems have
started? At first the US$ and gold will go up together against all other assets!" (11-3-1997)

"Turn slowly now and view all directions. The wealth that was had was not real. The Pacific Rim started, now
South America. Next will be Europe closely followed by the US. Remember, all currencies are the same now as
they are "digital paper"! Nations will defend the system at all cost They will never sell US$ treasury debt as that
debt is their currency! The dollar will soar as a final defense! As part of this defense they will allow oil to rise as
oil is priced in dollars. How do you get oil to rise? Today, we stop our CBs from selling gold!" (11-5-1997)

"The world currency system has, for years been little more than digital credits backed by "usage demand". In the
long run it was oil backing the US$ that kept it all together! It truly is strange, that in the end it was gold that
backed oil! In a even more strange twist, the loss of the LBMA gold market will bring the system down!" (11-13-1997)

"The BIS will not allow the distribution of all gold to settle claims. The mines of the world will be forced to sell to
the BIS at the "locked" existing commodity price of gold. This will happen over many, many years as no other
"official" market outside the BIS will exist." (11-16-1997)

"But what value gold? All say "it is only a commodity subject to supply and demand"! Understand me, Demand and
supply is written by BIS and $15 oil can cost $250 gold or $10,000 gold, whatever is required! $250 gold and
LBMA will live! $10,000 gold and LBMA is sacrificed!

"But, it will never come to this. The oil "understanding" was broken by the Asians. More gold has been sold than
can ever be covered! This market is not the same as the past. One day gold will start up and BIS will deal with it
the only way possible!" (11-22-1997)

"The future will look back at us with respect, as we knew not what was happening! A day will come, sir, when no
paper dollar will pry gold from your hands! In that day, you will be too smart for such foolishness." (11-23-1997)

"How will this all end? As the CBs never sold much of their gold, they are still locked to the deals thru the BIS. In
the real world it was stocks of gold outside the governments that got traded. And that trading multiplied many
times. Today, more gold is traded than exists! This paper today, has become the "gold pricing standard" without
backing. There is no way out! As we have now reached production cost, we have reached, "THE END"! Without
real physical to supply the oil states, they WILL bid for gold with oil! The BIS will do the only thing they can, halt
all trading and declare gold a "world oil currency"! To that end, all forms of paper gold will burn. How long till
this starts? I understand that the CBs are slowly winding down lending, then sales. This will, no doubt start a
paper panic at some time. It could take weeks or a year, I do not know." (11-28-1997)

"As a large tanker takes time to turn, so will the coming change in oil values take time to see. We have seen the last
of cheap oil in US$ as the oil states are no longer taking paper gold! This change in trading will have a great future
impact on oil/gold/US$." (11-30-1997)

tedw (01/27/01; 17:10:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46658)
M3
http://www.usagold.com

To the Sttanger or anyone else:

How long do you think before the current M3 increases translate to increased inflation at the consumer level.

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 16:40:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46657)
Randy
I figured there must be some type of schedule other than just the yearly quota amount...just never heard of it (until now).

Much Thanks

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/27/01; 16:33:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46656)
Sir lamprey_65, I would be good for nothing if I did not provide your desired help on this
RE: your (1/27/2001; 13:54:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46642) on Swiss gold sales

The numbers quoted in the news reports you have cited are quite correct, though their odd choice of phrasing has no doubt contributed to your misinterpretation.

Here are the two key news briefs:
--------
Davos--Jan. 26--Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Jean Pierre Roth said the Switzerland's gold sale is proceeding as planned and the targeted 220 tonnes sales quota will be achieved by the end of March.
AND
ZURICH, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank said on Wednesday it had so far sold 160 tonnes of excess gold
reserves under a programme coordinated with other central banks and aimed to sell the same amount by the end of September next year.
--------

To advoid unnecessary confusion, let us not start with an analysis of these two articles, but rather with what I know to be our present reality.

We are familiar with many "years", such as "calander years" (which cycle from January) and "fiscal years" (which cycle from any chosen starting point.) The "Washington Agreement years" are akin to "fiscal years" which cycle from the end of September.

In the First Year of the Washington Agreement, the Swiss allocated 120 tonnes through the BIS. In accommodating quotas and the other actions of their co-signers, the Swiss will be allocating only an additional 200 tonnes during this Washington Agreement Year Two. This would bring their two-year total allocation to 320 tonnes, which is the condition referred to in the second article when they were at the halfway point of 160 tonnes, expecting to "sell the same amount by the end of September".

Their stated goal regarding the 200 tonnes in Year Two was to allocate half (100 tonnes) during the first half of Year Two, which is the March deadline we see referred to in the first article above. bringing the cummulative total (along with Year One) to 220 tonnes.

An abacus helps. Got beads?

Rounding out the balance of the 400 tonne quota for Year Two, we expect to see the full delivery of 150 tonnes from the UK, and the remaining 50 tonnes this year will come from among portions of the Austrian's remaining WA allocation of 60 tonnes, and/or the Netherland's remaining 200 tonnes yet to be reallocated within the scope of the WA.

I hope this has been helpful.

JavaMan (01/27/01; 16:20:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46655)
Hello Tree in the Forest, and Henri...
Tree in the Forest, you are absolutely right, and it can all be explained in two words: ego and hype. I think there is a valuable lesson to be had here if only people would refuse to be swayed by the onslaught of hype that is ever present, then the majority of them would not fall victim to their own ego.

I know for a fact that in the seventies, when the transistor was taking over all things electronic, McIntosh was one of the finest pieces of electronics available. And all tubes! It delivered a softness to music whereas transistors produced a hard, glassy sound. It may still be one of the best but I've lost touch with the product line. I know one thing, when the day comes that I need to replace my home sound system, I'm going to give them a hard look...if there still in business.

Henry, even if gold was monetized to cover all the dollars in existence, I don't think it would be anywhere near six figures. Do you?

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 16:10:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46654)
Yikes
Sorry about the spelling guys.

lamprey_65 (01/27/01; 16:04:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46653)
Greenspan's "Flip-Flop" on Tax Cuts
Well, I don't think it's nearly the flip-flop the press are making it out to be. Why?

1. Greenspan testified last year to PREFERRING deficit reduction. However, he stipulated that if he had to choose between tax cuts and more government spending - he'd take the tax cuts.
2. Congress has been throwing money around like a bunch of drunken sailors out on liberty.
3. Ergo, Greenspan supports tax cuts.

In addition, it may also be that Greenie sees the economy falling off a cliff and would rather inflate (tax cuts, rate cuts, increasing money supply) than have the economy tank and go into a disinflationary recession/depression as happened after the '29 bubble popped. In our situation, inflation is the least of his problems...there's nothing like going from nearly full imployment to high unemployment -- drastic changes like that punish politicians (and bankers) severly.

Mr Gresham (01/27/01; 15:54:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46652)
Orville's post
Orville Goldenbacher (1/25/2001; 9:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46422)

in reply to ThaiGold's opium/gold theme is one of those "Secret Histories" that ties together a lot of recent world events, as well as going way back, if true. It's one of those "makes me feel crazy what's going on behind the scenes" histories, and "what world have I thought I've been living in". "Boxed in" with regard to any ideals of a better world, is another feeling. Hey, ain't the Internet great! (And why didn't I provide the link? After reading it, you bet, I'm feeling paranoid, too!)

Henri (01/27/01; 15:51:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46651)
These are the words I read and later realized were a jump shift of valuation prediction
From the end of the piece on Troy, Helen, and all. It's said she had hair of gold.

"...Consider these possibilities well. In that gold today is in a much lesser existence, compared to modern goods supply and lifestyle enhancements, when comparing it to it's value in life in the past. It's true worth as a wealth medium could be a 1,000 times higher! For it to return to it's ancient
position of true asset wealth, for trade outside the modern currency relm, we can see where it's European benefactors have once again placed it "On The Road" to much higher fiat currency prices. ..."

Henri (01/27/01; 15:43:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46650)
Trail Guide-Something New?
Did I miss something before or did your writings just predict another quantum leap in the future woes of the dollar/$ value of physical gold.

I thought I read...gold will be worth 1000 times its current price. That would be 265,000- 275,000 dollars per troy???? The highest I saw before was $30,000/troy.

Am I imagining things or was it a typo?

If not, converting $'s to gold now may be the best coup in the history of global finance.

Much better than the magical "Philosopher's Stone", which you had to have bunches of lead first to convert to gold. To think just a ton of green paper can convert more without magic than the magical Philosopher's stone with a ton of lead. But then again, it IS said that most magic is a trick of perception.

With your writings, we have been let in on the secret of the trick before it is performed!

Tree in the Forest (01/27/01; 15:19:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46649)
JavaMan: Number Games

When I first started working in the electronics industry, I had a boss from Taiwan. While over in Taiwan he was custom manufacturing FM radios and using as I recall, a 9 tube design. One day a customer came in and requested a 10 tube radio. My boss informed him that the 9 tube radio was a very good design and more tubes were not necessary. The man insisted that his neighbor had a 9 tube radio, so he had to have one with 10 tubes. It had to be better right? My boss didn't want to turn away a paying customer so he agreed to make the man a 10 tube radio. He took his standard 9 tube design, punched an extra hole in the chassis, mounted an extra tube, wired it so the filaments would light up and sold the man his 10 tube radio. The man was very happy because he could show up his neighbor!

These number games have been played probably since the dawn of man. When transistors came along, the games continued. The original AM radios were six transistors but it was not long before 9,10,12 and even 16 transistor portables were on the market. The best portable AM radio ever made was the Zenith Royal 500. It blew the competition away on sound quality, sensitivity and selectivity. It sported just 8 transistors.

In the 60's, the number games continued with stereo amplifier power numbers. Amps that could barely wheeze out 15 watts, were bogusly rated at 100 watts with trumped up rating systems. A little 25 watt McIntosh power amp destroyed the ersatz 100 watt amps in sound quality. Still, people bought the numbers. In cars also, horsepower numbers were and are considered selling points.

Now here we are in the next millenia and the games continue with CPU MHz ratings. But you can take 2 systems with identical processors, memory, operating systems etc. and one will trash the other. The difference? The motherboard engineering. A designer who knows what he is doing and has the design criteria to let him run (ie. the boss will let him design a more expensive board) can build a much faster system. But there's no numbers in doing this. People want those d*mn numbers of course! And the numbers just don't tell the whole story do they?

Hey, I've got 100 golden dollars. Care to trade them for a lonely gold eagle? More is better right? ;-)

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 15:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 46648)
What would I do if I were AG?
I would follow the path he treads. However, in addition, I would buy physical AU and, clear my debts.

Cavan Man (01/27/01; 15:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46647)
USAGOLD
MK-For the same reasons, Ireland is really European (also) despite her very close ties to the US (and I mean CLOSE). Despite all the US investment there, her best customers are East not West. It always boils down to sales Mike :>):>)!

JavaMan (01/27/01; 14:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46646)
Lady Leigh...
I was thinking of a post you made some time ago where you pointed out that Trail Guide had made the statement: "in the days to come..." and you queried him on it. Looks like those "days" could stretch out in to weeks or months or...

But, be that as it may, we sure are witnessing some interesting times with the all that Dr. Greenspan is confronted with. I think 2001 is going to be a very interesting year.

JavaMan (01/27/01; 14:10:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46645)
correction
"who's" = "whose".

Leigh (01/27/01; 14:09:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46644)
JavaMan
You're very right! My thinking is a little foggy today. Thanks for your additions to my comments.

JavaMan (1/27/2001; 13:58:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46643)
Hello Lady Leigh...
Its so very nice to see you contributing your razor sharp observations again. You said: ""He mentioned several times about how ancient people (except the super-wealthy) spent their money on tangible necessities and barter items, not gold."

JavaMan: Yes, but I got the impression their money WAS gold and that no hoards were found because it was their custom to spend it (on essentials?) while out and about.

And..."In fact, he mentioned it so often that I wondered if he was giving us a subtle hint about stocking up for hard times! It was like: "buy what you're going to need and use your excess money for gold." "

JavaMan: And it seems our Trail Guide is not alone in his advocation of an orderly plan to buy what you need [with fiat] and convert the rest to [physical] gold.

I believe it was Aristotle (who measures his gold in pounds) who's reasoning first caused me to see that rather than kicking and screaming about our currency situation, it was much better to simply pay off debt and settle transactions with dollars of the day and then, on a regular basis, convert any excess to physical gold...real savings.

lamprey_65 (1/27/2001; 13:54:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46642)
Swiss Gold Sales
http://www.crbindex.com/news/story2203.html
I posted this late last night and asked if anyone could clarify - some may have missed it. I've done some checking since...here's the blurb from Bridge:

DAVOS: Swiss Central Bank's Roth won't say if rates have peaked
Davos--Jan. 26--Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Jean Pierre Roth said the Switzerland's gold sale is proceeding as planned and the targeted 220 tonnes sales quota will be achieved by the end of March. ( Story .15963 )

---

Now, as I said last night, something does not seem quite right to me. Here is a message by turkey hunter from 12/9/00 which I thought I recalled last night from memory:

turkey hunter (12/08/00; 20:01:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 43274)
Swiss National Bank wants to get rid of gold
SNB says has sold 160 tonnes of gold so far

ZURICH, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank said on Wednesday it had so far sold 160 tonnes of excess gold
reserves under a programme coordinated with other central banks and aimed to sell the same amount by the end of September next year.

"To date, 160 tonnes have been put on the market and we intend to sell the same quantity between now and the end of
September 2001," SNB Vice-Chairman Jean-Pierre Rothsaid in the text of a speech to be delivered at the SNB's quarterly
news conference.

The SNB started its gold sales programme in May, under which it plans to sell 1,300 tonnes of excess reserves.

---

My memory was right on this. September is the end date for quota fulfillment - not March. They said that 160 tons would be sold by September, 2001. Now, the Swiss are saying they WILL have sold 220 tons by the end of March is quite possibly 220-160= 60 tons from early-December thru the end of March. Or is it?

Is this a misquote, or is there some significance to 220 tons by the end of March of which I'm not aware? First they say 160 tons by September 2001, then they say a "targetted 220 ton sales quota by the end of March". Are there limits per quarter also? And the other, less likely possibility - have the Swiss decided to sell 220 tons from January-March 2001?

Something doesn't add up.

Journeyman (1/27/2001; 13:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46641)
Clarification from Pete The Prophet @escapethematrix msg#: 46637

"Hmmm.......What on Earth could he mean?? (smile)" -escapethematrix msg#: 46637

He means - - -

What would happen if the Saudia Arabians said they didn't want to be paid [for oil] in
dollars anymore, but wanted instead, to be paid, say in yen. There would be inflation
that would make the 15 to 20 percent inflation in the early 80's look good. -Sen.
Pete Domenici, R-NEW MEXICO, C-SPAN II, 18 May 1995 ~12:33:55 PM

AND to add perspective for any new folks who may be lurking here about - - - -

Mr Jacques Santer, former president of the European Commission, has called on Gulf
Arab oil exporters to price their crude in the euro rather than the US dollar as a
means to stabilise the oil market. "It could be the instrument to consolidate oil markets"
and would be less affected by US foreign policy, he told a Gulf-Euro conference in
Dubai. -Sante r calls for oil to be priced in euros,The Irish Times 10/08/2000

In this connection, it must be noted that Iraq is attempting to switch to the euro as its
currency for settling oil exports, and that Venezuela [U.S.'s largest (non-OPEC) oil
supplier -LRW] is reportedly planning to follow suit. Euroland has a lot to gain
from this development because it will eliminate currency exchange risks. -TERUHIKO
MANO, Euro attracts global audience as option to dollar-based trade,
JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES, The Japan Times: November 20, 2000 [repeat link]

High regards,
Journeyman

Shermag (1/27/2001; 13:40:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46640)
HBM, Peter Asher: Money Zero Velocity
I think you are sort of on to something pertaining to money at zero velocity being no longer money, but with a caveat.

Money is a future claim against real wealth, be it real physical goods or some sort of service. If that claim lays dormant, such as being stuffed under a mattress, it will have zero velocity. If it remains there forever, it is no longer money in any real practical sense, no different than if it is incinerated.

The caveat is that this money may, at some time, be pulled out from under the mattress, and once again exert its claim on things real. The Russians learned this all too well, post USSR. When the availability of real goods returned, which were long suppressed in soviet times, this resulted in the vast hoard of rubles held outside of their banking system returning to circulation. This, in turn, resulted in money competition with the government printing presses, something no self respecting Kleptocrat could tolerate. As a consequence, almost all of the cash rubles held outside of the banks were voided, in effect robbing many at the lower end of the economic spectrum of their meager savings.

I add as a final thought that those with the foresight and means to hold gold or US dollars fared much better.

Shermag

escapethematrix (1/27/2001; 13:16:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46639)
From Bloomberg news.....
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOnLnmhMHSU1GIFNh
I hope this link works, if not, this article is at Bloomberg. The comment by Mr. Summers near the bottom made me laugh. Have a great weekend Everyone!!

To Trailguide/Foa....

Thanks for everything you do, good sir. One of the ninteen Life Instructions from the Dalai Lama seems to be written just for you:

"Share your knowledge. It's a way to achieve immortality"

Again, many thanks.

slingshot (1/27/2001; 13:10:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46638)
Beowulf msg46619
Reading the DRUDGE REPORT, as posted in msg 46619,have come to the reality that if they had done the things reported in the DRUDGE REPORT. We are in deep trouble. I can not print the words I want to say. If they would do these acts upon the very symbol of the free world, what do you think they did to us with executive orders. I'm an old salt, cut from a different jib. Thank you Beowulf for bringing it to light.
Need to blow off some steam now.
Slingshot

escapethematrix (1/27/2001; 12:52:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46637)
They'll call him Pete the Prophet........
This excerpt, or Freudian slip??, perhaps, is from a front page article on GWB's tax cut proposal in the Friday USA today....

But momentum is clearly building for larger tax cuts. Even Senate Budget Chairman Pete Domenici, R-N.M., a longtime fiscal conservative, sounded like a tax-cutter on Thursday:" I don't think that we have to be concerned about spending too much money because there will be a lot......around."

Hmmm.......What on Earth could he mean?? (smile)

Pandagold (1/27/2001; 12:36:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46636)
The UK and the Union

The UK is part of EU, so forget any other 'unions'. There is only one more step for full integration- the monetary union. That will come well within the next three years - most likely two.

Don't worry too much about the 'one world' bit, it is the 'agenda' but quite some way down the road. We'll all be under the sod long, long ago by then.

Keep your eye on GOLD ( and your MIND)

It won't have to rise all that much for those mines to be profitable. And gold coinage will have a strong revival, certainly for collectors.

USAGOLD (1/27/2001; 12:20:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46635)
All. . .
I should have added that Mr. Dallara, according to the article, has Treas Sec O'Neill's backing but is opposed by White House advisor Lindsay.

USAGOLD (1/27/2001; 12:15:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46634)
FOA. . . .
As usual you are way ahead of me.

Make that dinner "Fish & Chips." Paid in pounds. (Laugh)

We shall see, my friend. If I accomplish nothing more than to draw you out, I've accomplished much.

Thanks, FOA.

Working on News & Views this weekend. Received this via our good friend, Buena Fe. Something that appeared yesterday in the Financial Times and points up the growing rift between Bush and some on Wall Street. It will be in the Feb issue with my comments.

"Conservative Republicans see the criticism from Wall Street [of GWB's economics team] over a supposed lack of market awareness in the administration as code, indicating that no nominee as yet is an obvious supporter of big financial bail-outs. For them, Mr. [Charles] Dallara's [who will head a new economics group within the National Security Council reporting to national security advisor, Condoleeza Rice, and ecnomics advisor, Lawrence Lindsay] would be a source of concern as he is viewed as a strong proponent of rescue packages. They are critical of the role of Robert Rubin, the Wall Street banker who was the chief economic policy-maker of the Clinton administration, as being overly attuned to his Wall Street friends in choreographing financial rescues in Latin America and Asia. " --- Financial Times, 1/25/01

All: I very much appreciate the articles you send by mail and fax. Keep it coming. . . .

Journeyman (1/27/2001; 12:07:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46633)
Dissing inflation @Sir Peter Asher, 01/26/01 msg#: 46596

"Sheese Journeyman, what's gotten into you tonight? ... Your riding around with your lance tip unsheathed!" -Peter Asher (01/26/01; 20:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46596)

Oops!! You're right!! Thanks!! Only your friends will tell you some things. Ah, hold on a minute. z-z-z-z-z-i-i-p There, now. Lance tip all covered up! ;>

By the way, anytime you want to DISS inflation, I'm with ya!

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I learned something from your homework, Sir Peter. Thanx!!

auspec (1/27/2001; 11:17:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46632)
ThaiGold/ David G
Yes, ThaiGold, I am well aware of Ted Butler's work, but an "UNDERGROUND" supply of silver would throw his figures out if kilter. Thus the questions re this issue. Nothing definitive that I can remember out of David G's work as to pinpointing a large and hidden silver supply. If it is in existence, it is keeping a lower profile than its bigger brother.
So, until proven otherwise let's state the following:
There is quicksilver, paper silver, spec silver, colloidal silver, Lone Ranger Silver, & ThaiSilver, BUT NO KNOWN SIGNIFICANT BLACK SILVER! Fair enough?

slingshot (1/27/2001; 11:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46631)
E.T. Leigh ThaiGold
E.T. msg 46627
After reading the post I get the feeling that the CB's are not in control of this gold manipulation but the oil producers. They may have been one time, no more.
Considering how the oil producing nations in the east would love to see the oil gussling west in dire straits as they suck the life out of the CB's (gold). Run the price of gold by increase in oil value. Which calls the gold shorts and dumps the markets.
The only thing missing as per ThaiGold is the drugs and the CB's are force to launder the money by Blackmail I presume.
I think I just had a brain spasm.
Leigh, I read the message and took the hint. Hurricane Andrew was a real good teacher also.

Slingshot

ET (1/27/2001; 10:55:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 46630)
Cavan Man

Hey CM - as you can tell, I haven't had my coffee! Apologies to ThaiGold and yourself for the error.

Funny thing - I've resurrected all these ANOTHER posts from Kitco and am having a ball going through them. I remember at the time I read them I had to go over them several times as I was having great difficulty understanding what he had to say. I read them now and they make perfect sense!

I tried the link,

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER7.html

that was good when I copied them but it no longer works. It would be great if someone knows a current link. Once again sorry about the confusion.

Trail Guide (1/27/2001; 10:54:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46629)
Comment

Michael,

In response to your CavanMan question about Greenspan; I made my reply a deep and philosophical ramble, hoping to draw out some other's concepts and opinions about him. For some reason (smile), I feel I know the man and his reasoning, in depth, and wanted to see just what others would do in his shoes. A few replied and I will later, in kind. Perhaps, to our good poster PHinLA's writings, yesterday. Hope his power is still on (grin)!

As to your / our little bet (smile),,,,, I can dump a few K trying to make a point about physical gold vs futures, but dropping a US$ to Mr. Kosares over England would mentally and politically break me,,, Ho! Ho! Ha! Ha!,,,,,, Actually, I don't feel that you are a gambler, but business men of your stature must take public risks on occasions, no?,,,, So, on that account, I will not feel good about taking your money (grin). Besides, being so positive of my new gained one US dollar of wealth from USAGOLD, I already converted it into Euros and invested it (huge grin!) Ha! Ha! Time will tell, my friend!

To comment on your post earlier:

Adrian van Eck doesn't miss a thing and is usually right in the middle of every political motivation that's flowing at the moment. My observations are that this is but another example of the fluid political events we follow and do concur that the methods indicate open economic trade warfare
behind the screens. Indeed, yourself, myself and anyone following the flow of comments here at USAGOLD are attempting to measure the impact of these moves upon our respective currency / economic zones. Even as these nation states combat each other, behind the doors for an upper
hand.

Boy, I have a hard time replying any better than our Mr.CavanMan did in his (01/26/01; 19:07:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46590) and everyone should read it again. You have been holding back on us sir (smile).

His point to you, Michael, is that of history and the ebb and flow of greatness in nation states: ---

--"The UK trade flows to the East naturally. As usual, your thought is excellent. However, the British being primarily a conservative people will not make a (quantum) leap of faith across the pond I do believe. Rather, they will be a key member of the EC over the long haul."---

So, I can only support his complete post with my comments followed with several copies from Dravos.

My Coment to a few others:
Codoleeza Rice, G.W. Bush's foreign policy advisor, is only doing her job. But, her proposition alone does not negate the obvious; the US in coming off an economic peak inspired by a huge Fed engineered currency inflation. And, because this dynamic is happening at a point and time unique in
history, world reserve currency trends will now control how the US handles this particular liquification of it's system. This simple point is painfully in plain view throughout the Euro Zone block. It's on record within so many ECB, French, BIS and multi EuroLand publications we cannot begin to repeat it all. They (EuroLand) saw our expansion for what it was, knew it's reason for building, noted that our dollar was driven to "overvaluation" by political means, and knew the Euro "under valuation" was but a passing thing. The British were not yesterday, and are not today blinded to this fact. They, as have other dollar trading blocks, completely based their financial structure upon an endless extension of the world's present reserve currency structure. Yet, today, for the first time in modern US history, there is a real risk that that reserve structure may fracture,
taking those financial houses into a hyperinflation with us.

Bringing Britain into NAFTA would be a great accomplishment and is as good as any a political and economic point for the new Bush people to aspire for,,,,, but points are for arguing while reality is the game that wins votes. Do we really think England will dive for this even as Mexico reveals the danger. From Dravos:

------ http://www.iht.com/articles/8763.htm------------

Mexico Will Seek New EU Trade Links
Alan Friedman International Herald Tribune
Friday, January 26, 2001

Fox Wants to Offset Potential Harm to Growth From U.S.Slowdown

DAVOS, Switzerland President Vicente Fox of Mexico said Thursday that the U.S. economic slowdown could damage his country's growth target this year, but he said he would work to replace lost U.S. trade and investment by forging new commercial ties with the European Union.

"The slowdown in the United States could affect our projection of 4.5 percent growth in 2001, but we want to substitute it with more European trade and investment and make use of the recently signed trade agreement between Mexico and the European Union," Mr. Fox said Thursday night in an interview in Davos with the International Herald Tribune.

Mr. Fox said he would soon visit France, Britain, Germany, Spain and Switzerland to promote Mexican exports and to seek fresh European investment in Mexico.----------------
-------------

HA! HA! Well, Michael, CMan, what do you think of my rambeling on? Can't you just see Britain wondering why they are coming in the front door while Mexico is running out the back? Oh Boy!,,,,Here comes Fox, a smart cookie I might add, signing trade expanding pacts with EuroLand because he can't make his numbers with the US. So what is England going to trade to us that could undercut Mexico? Makes you think, right? (smile)

Also,,,,, Why in the world would Britain want to joint up with this bunch, at a period where they are all driving each others profit margin down the drain, just to recessitate a plunging economic and financial structure built on dollars? And,,,, If anyone doesn't think that Japan does not stand head and shoulders within our little NAFTA organization, they better get new a new financial planner because their own thinking is way off. Their Yen economy is back boned into the USA and it's dollar. More from Dravos:

---------- http://www.iht.com/articles/8916.htm ------------

Japan Fights to Counter Gloom Over Its Economy
Alan Friedman and David Ignatius International Herald Tribune
Saturday, January 27, 2001

DAVOS, Switzerland Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori of Japan will use an appearance here on Saturday to try to counteract the extreme gloom about prospects for the world's second largest economy that has emerged at the annual economic conclave here.

Mr. Mori's appearance at the World Economic Forum, the first ever by a Japanese prime minister, comes as bankers, business executives and economists are wondering aloud if Japan is in recession. Fears are mounting that, after a decade of anemic growth, the country's political paralysis, high debt and snail's pace approach to deregulation and reform could combine with the U.S. economic slowdown to damage global growth prospects this year.

According to a senior Japanese official familiar with Mr. Mori's speech, the prime minister will offer both hope for the future and a frank, even humble assessment of what the official termed "the lost decade."--------------------

Also from Dravos:

------------ http://www.iht.com/articles/8762.htm --------

Fed Chairman Warns Growth 'Is Close to Zero'
Mitchell Martin International Herald Tribune
Friday, January 26, 2001

Greenspan Backs Big Tax Cuts, A Political Boost for Bush Plan

NEW YORK The U.S. economy has virtually stopped growing, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, told Congress on Thursday, a surprisingly gloomy view that increases the prospects for a deep interest-rate cut next week.----------------------------------

So, Michael,,,,, the fifty-first state? I don't think so. If they do it will be like buying all kinds of leveraged gold substitutes several years ago when some thinkers where saying stick with the real thing instead (smile). By god, that would have been the type of political advisor the Queen needs today!

Britain, like Physical Gold Advocates today, may show some ware from linking to the huge economy of the new Europe, but those minor scares will be nothing compared to the loss (like gold paper players) of going deeper in dollar leverage or staying at all within the US financial and economic trading block. Just at the time in history when we must super inflate away our debts.

------------
Further to your post, Michael: They cannot keep the pound as it stands. It's almost a dollar derivative now. In fact, I know they are monitoring the Gulf Cooperation Council, looking for pointers on how they will structure a parallel currency that uses Euros for settlement, all prior to
joining. Besides, they (HM Treasury) have already shown their hand to us by clearing out as much of their favored Bullion Bank gold debts as possible before EMU.

As to their becoming a halfway house, bridging trade between a future inflating NAFTA arena and EuroLand? Great idea, but Mexico is already showing that won't work. They and everyone else will undercut Britain long before they can "rule the waves again" (smile).

You are a good historian, my friend, and any assessment of world power flows requires just such an input if one is to understand these modern moves. But this time the real history is before us and we will be a big part of it! Oh yes,,,,,,,,, we will!

Now, I'm going to take my little boat and go fishing. Mans got to eat, you know. Be back later, after a fish dinner! (smile)

TrailGuide

Leigh (1/27/2001; 10:33:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46628)
JavaMan, slingshot
Did you guys read Trail Guide's Gold Trail message the other night? He mentioned several times about how ancient people (except the super-wealthy) spent their money on tangible necessities and barter items, not gold. In fact, he mentioned it so often that I wondered if he was giving us a subtle hint about stocking up for hard times! It was like: "buy what you're going to need and use your excess money for gold."

Did anyone else notice that?

ET (1/27/2001; 10:02:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46627)
ThaiGold

Hey ThaiGold - thanks for the response. As I said, I don't care to debate the merits of either view. I simply read all I can and try to come to some kind of conclusion as to what I need to do.

I will tell you what I perceive as some of what has been "predicted" and you may judge for yourself as to whether these have come to pass.

ANOTHER claimed the CB's were buying us time by supplying gold to the market (10-5-1997). He claimed further that as long as gold stays cheap in currency terms, oil will be in good supply (10-7-1997).

"Gold is cornered. Plain and simple. No complicated theories, no options problems. The commodity value of gold was forced so low in paper terms that all of the new mined gold, going out some 10 years is spoken for. Between the third world buying physical gold and the jewelry industry (same people buying) there is none left for the oil states! They do value oil in terms of gold, but not IN the paper currency price of gold! How much is gold worth in terms of oil value? Just stop supplying gold to them in ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching the currency price of oil! In any event, LBMA has traded so much paper/oil/gold that any rise in the currency price of gold will implode them. The CBs must become the full primary suppliers of gold or the system as we know it is done.

"One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!" (10-9-1997)

"There is no end to the amount of paper contracts that can be written and sold to drop the price of gold. The large players that I know have no problem with this. They are not traders." (11-1-1997)

Just one more ...

"At this moment in time and space, the price of oil in US$ terms is about to roar! It will crush the Pacific Rim and South America. It will drive the US$ sky high in terms of other major currencies but the dollar will collapse in terms of gold! Short term interest rates in the USA will be driven thru the floor much the way they have been in Japan from the early 90s. This will be done to combat a imploding equity market. Long government bonds will almost stop trading as their yield soars from the oil price fears of "inflation"! Because of todays "new digital paper markets" this entire act will be played out in 30 days or less. Yes, you are right! During that time we will have inflation and deflation." (11-2-1997)

As you can see, ANOTHER had this inflation thing down way before The Stranger and others came along. All I'm saying is some of us have been following this "trail" for much longer than you realize and we haven't been disappointed with our guide. I could go on and on with this stuff but I think you get the idea. Please don't consider those that agree with ANOTHER as "lemmings". I for one consider that something of an insult as "one that can't think for himself". Indeed, he has made me think, and for that I will always be grateful.

slingshot (1/27/2001; 9:30:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 46626)
JavaMan Msg46623
Thanks JavaMan, for your reassurance. Should we all become "Rebels", What better company.
Whew!, Banish the thought of being paid by the case in "SPAM".
Slingshot

Cavan Man (1/27/2001; 8:53:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46625)
Thai Gold
Hello Thai. I concur wholeheartedly with ET; especially about your contributions to the forum here.

The Another message is quite radical and too hard to believe isn't it? Yep, these two fine gentlemen have been at it now, never varying and spending lots of time for over three years now. The more time that goes by, the more right I know they are. I'm in no hurry to participate in their new paradigm for even with physical gold, I will probably wish for a return of the "good old days". History is in the making. Let's hope this chapter can be written without bloodshed.

Cavan Man (1/27/2001; 8:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46624)
Hello ET
I asked MK in a post yesterday if he could recap for the Forum any of the "predictions" of Another (he'd probably hate that word) that have come to pass. Can you?

JavaMan (1/27/2001; 8:44:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46623)
slingshot, you said...
"When we finally get to this ONE WORLD ORDER, what will be the thing of value?"

When trying to envision the future, it is impossible to recognize all of the variables, perhaps not even existing today, that may come into being at that time. For instance, as I contemplate a one world government, complete with one world central bank, it may be the case that technology is used to enforce the exclusion of people who resist or decline to participate in the new order. It may be the case at that time, that all transactions are electronic.

If so, the "rebels" would be unable to conduct normal trade and an alternative, underground, currency would need to be found. What better choice than gold? The more things change, the more they stay the same.

BH (1/27/2001; 8:41:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46622)
ET msg#: 46618
Well said, very well. Thank you!

slingshot (1/27/2001; 8:25:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46621)
Power of Gold
PANDAGOLD MSG46612
Good Morning,
Very informative article on the power of gold. I agree the world will divide first into three main blocks with the ultimate goal of one world order. I also agree that great undertakings whether good or evil have been finance by gold.
The one with the most gold won.
What I am about to state never comes about in any lifetime. Gold has value for we give it value. Flint was valuable to the caveman. Bronze/iron, to medieval man. Gold /silver to modern man. Salt was more valuable than gold at one time.
When we finally get to this ONE WORLD ORDER, what will be the thing of value? Has to be a real control factor.
As investors we should be looking ahead into the future.
My guess. FOOD
Plain and simple. Armys march on it. People are content with it.

I know it is a little off track for this forum.

Anyway, "GOLDCHIPS" BETCHA YOU EAT JUST ONE!

Slingshot

Orville Goldenbacher (1/27/2001; 8:18:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46620)
Beowulf
Just wait 'til G.W. tries to light the cigar that Bill left behind......."Wonder why this darn thing won't stay lit" hehe.

Go GATA
Go Gold

OG

Beowulf (1/27/2001; 7:44:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46619)
White House Offices Left 'Trashed'
http://www.drudgereport.com/wh93a.htm
I'm not sure if this was already posted, but Drudge has posted a growing list of the damage done to the White House and Air Force One.

ET (1/27/2001; 7:22:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46618)
ThaiGold

Hey ThaiGold - thanks for your contributions here. You wrote;

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 23:00:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46605)
I'm Awaiting Any One of the Three...
Attn: Peter Asher (01/26/01; 21:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46602)
Peter Asher wrote:
[snip]
...John Stewart Mill's (loosely quoted) "New ideas are first met with ridicule, then argument., and finally,
acceptance."
[unsnip]

"I believe he may have been talking about me, not Real Estate."

I've probably read nearly every post you've made here since you started posting. I probably speak for many when I say keep it up, you have many interesting things to say. Above all, you make me think and I thank you for that. However, I've noticed you are discontented with your perceived level of acceptance here and further, seem to think you need to denigrate other views. As someone said awhile back, "Time will prove all things."

I want you to know why many here find ANOTHER and FOA quite interesting. First of all, let me post for you ANOTHER's first post over at Kitco;

Date: Sun Sep 14 1997 21:12

ANOTHER (an answer?):

This could be an answer directed to the "Red Baron"?

The CB's are becoming "primary suppliers" to the gold market. Understand that they are not doing this because they want to, they have to.

The words are spoken to show a need to raise capital but we knew that was a screen from long ago. You will find the answer to the LBMA problem if you follow a route that connects South Africa, The middle east, India and then Asia!

Remember this; the western world uses paper as a real value, but oil and gold will never flow in the same direction.

Big Trader

end quote;

You see, at the time (1997), ANOTHER brought a few ideas to the table that few had considered. I see his thoughts included some of what you reference today with your Asian drug connection. He claimed in his second post what you reference today with your profits from oil. He was the first to relate what was happening behind the scenes in the gold and oil business. He further pointed out how different the two cultures are regarding wealth.

Perhaps you can understand why he and his friend are held in such esteem. They have been at this for several years and as you can see, the message hasn't varied. As a matter of fact, several predictions have come to pass. I don't doubt there is some agenda behind the fact that they post at all, but the content is outstanding nevertheless. I don't wish to debate the merits of either their views or yours, I simply want to point out that the so-called "lemmings" might consider your denigration of them to be somewhat out-of-line.

If you have something to say which proves them wrong, please point it out, we are all listening. Once again, thanks for all the time you spend in enlightening all of us, it is greatly appreciated.

Black Blade (1/27/2001; 6:36:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46617)
Palladium Nears Record as Russian Sales Fail to Meet Demand
From Russia With ....

By Vladimir Todres

London, Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Palladium jumped almost 6 percent near a record after shipments from Russia, the first in weeks from the world's largest supplier, proved insufficient to meet demand. ``The metal did come, but the scarcity persists,'' said Ralf Drieselmann, head of precious metals trading at Frankfurt-based Degussa-Huels AG, which uses palladium in automotive catalytic converters. ``Buying interest is overrunning'' supplies.

Palladium for immediate delivery rose as much $60.50, or 5.8 percent, to $1,110.50 an ounce in London, near the Jan. 12 record of $1,125 an ounce. Prices have soared from around $225 three years ago because of sporadic Russian sales and rising demand, driving up costs for carmakers, dentists and electronics makers.

Russia, which supplies two-thirds of the world's palladium, delivered metal to Japan and commenced shipments to Europe, traders said. RAO Norilsk Nickel, the country's only producer of the metal, has pledged to begin sales before the end of this month. Still, the other two exporters, the central bank and the State Precious Metals Reserve, have yet to disclose their plans. Norilsk officials responsible for exports weren't immediately available to comment.

Russia sold some 5.2 million ounces of palladium last year, according to London-based Johnson Matthey Plc. Norilsk, which exports almost all palladium it makes, mines an estimated 2.7 million ounces of the metal a year. The bank and the reserve, which deliver metals from their vaults, account for the rest of shipments. ``All material that we see coming out of Russia now is fresh metal from Norilsk,'' Drieselmann said.

The State Reserve said earlier this month it may make some deliveries this year, revising a statement from last year that it planned no deliveries in 2001. The central bank has repeatedly declined to comment on the issue. Demand from the automotive industry remains strong as countries from the U.S. to Japan introduce more stringent emission standards. Even though carmakers are cutting back their use of the metal, switching to cheaper platinum, demand for palladium surpassed supply for the fourth straight year in 2000. Palladium has more than doubled in price over the past year.

Black Blade: Got email from the cold wasteland this morning. My Russkie friend thinks that any significant shipments are unlikely and that they may even end after March. I asked him about the so-called "deliveries." He thinks that Norilsk Nickel is shipping from current production. He said that even the Nickel production is down. I still say that the PGM stockpiles are depleted as my Russian Friends have said in the past. Life is still very harsh in their part of the world and it's not getting any better. My friend Sergei says that the corruption is pervasive at the local level and the mine management is no better. Looks as if PGM prices could still rise from here (unbelievable as that may seem).

JavaMan (1/27/2001; 6:22:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46616)
Hello Sirs RossL and HBM, All...
RossL, you made a good point as the amount of RAM could definitely be a factor but actually both machines have 256 MB of RAM. Any serious software development requires that much memory, but I was mistaken in my numbers...a difference between 300 mhz and 450 mhz is 50% not 150%. I should have calmed down before posting. At any rate, as HBM alluded to, so much for hedonics.

I believe that, to some degree, this is part of the strategy (read "conspiracy") on the part of Microsoft of planned obsolescence by continually requiring more powerful platforms in order to run software on their operating system. However, Windows 2000 offers nothing when compared to Windows NT that justifies such a hit in performance. As a matter of fact it has "features" that I would prefer to do without or at least be able to turn off. But if everyone kept their NT (or Win95) machines, there would be less market for new PCs and, thus, less market for Microsoft.

This brings up an interesting point regarding Microsoft's anti-trust law suit argument that the "industry" needs a standard so it can move forward. And also the argument that Microsoft is market driven and sensitive to the customer's needs. But what happens when that "standard" involves costs you'd rather not pay? As my lovely Hispanic wife would say, "this is caca doodle!"

On another note, last Sunday's local newspaper had an article about our recent unemployment figures. Here, in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina (the Silicon Valley of the east coast) unemployment has gone from almost zero to the national average (approximately 4%). I expect it to exceed the national average eventually because there is so much technology here and we will probably take a proportionally bigger hit.

Witness only the latest piece of news about Ericsson's decision regarding cell phones. Ericsson has (had?) a huge facility here. Maybe we can turn it into a shelter for the homeless (all the people who used to work there) because they aren't going to be using it to manufacture cell phones anymore.

My point is that as we watch the race between the purchasing power of our dollars and the value and quality of the things we buy to ever lower levels, we recognize the need to be wise stewards of our personal resources. But the impact of inflation which will simply drive us to hunker down accordingly, will be a tremendous shock that is greatly amplified to those who find themselves among the newly unemployed. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Black Blade (1/27/2001; 6:07:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46615)
El Presidente Fox will sell (some) Juice to Kalifornia
Thanks Usul.

Just heard on the radio that El Presidente Fox of Mexico will allow the sale of 50 MW to California with a total of a 200 MW package. That is almost an insult because it is so miniscule (quite funny I think). I await to hear the response from the Commissar.

- Balck Blade

Cavan Man (1/27/2001; 6:06:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46614)
USAGOLD 46587
MK-Senator Phil Gramm proposed the UK merger into NAFTA about one year ago as reported here at USAGOLD.com. At that time, we were into the thick of it with FOA. What's happened since that juncture? Have those fires cooled? I believe they continue to blaze behind those veritable "closed doors" we all like to make reference to. As FOA contends, political events impacting global monetary (mis)management are indeed fluid.

My take FWIW on NAFTA: More than Pat and Ross being right, NAFTA has furthered the dollarization of Mexico and cemented a cheap source of production of manufactured goods to sustain the unsustainable north of the border. I've been through those border (maquila) areas. It is shameful. If more Americans stopped to consider....there would be an outrage.

Usul (1/27/2001; 5:58:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46613)
Keep those reports coming, Black Blade!
http://uhavax.hartford.edu/~kolluri/abstract/journ18.html
And they say "there is no inflation"... I think the number of people taken in is falling.

Professor Bharat R. Kolluri (link) found that during March 1968-February 1980, a one-percent increase in anticipated inflation resulted in a 5 percent increase in the capital gain on gold, and the relationship is much stronger for January 1974-February 1980. Perhaps because of the oil crisis?

Pandagold (1/27/2001; 2:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46612)
Thai - the (real) Power of Gold

I can only assume from your remark about removing my head, that you assumed my response posting to your question was my definitive answer. Maybe it was my fault that I didn't make clearer that I needed time to find a way of putting it which you would understand, without my painting it in large simple English words.

There are somethings which, when you understands what goes on, you learn not to be too out-spoken on - that is if you wish to keep your head.

Someone else has tried to explain, in the best way he could find, but I have noticed his postings have disappeared from the forum ( I wonder why, and where he is?)

My few comments were only intended as a 'warmer' , a few basic ingredients which many know, but do not really absorb into their mental processes.

It is my intention now to leave any further comments on the real problem which the world is facing, and from which all these others, discussed here, are mere tributaries of one mighty undammable river that would make the Yangtse seem like a mountain stream.

I will say this though, you are way off beam in how you see the new millennium. There will always (one shouldn't say always, really) I mean in our lifetime, and someway beyond, a link with the old ' Brit. Empire Club'. This will be for many reasons, some explainable, some not.

Before there is 'One World' (some distance down the road). The world will divide into three main blocks. Europe, Asia, and The Americas. They are moving strongly that way now. But the ultimate aim is One World - Ein Wolk, Ein Reich, Ein Feuhrer!

Yes, the dream of many. But all those who tried it, tried it militarily. That is not the way to conquer, as the 'elite' discovered centuries ago. It is easier to control people with 'money', than with a whip. Takes longer, but is more effective.

Doubt me? The mighty Roman Empire with its fine military machine collapsed when it ran out of - MONEY. The British Empire collapsed when it ran out of - MONEY!
The greatest military machines of recent history Napoleon, and Herr Hitler, were defeated by those who had the most GOLD. He who has the most gold RULES!
emblazon that on your mind. THEN and ONLY THEN, will you even begin to understand gold.

All the world's greatest ventures, military, or otherwise had to be financed by GOLD; even Columbus' search for the New World.

Are you beginning to get the message? Do you need me to explain now why that question you asked, need not have been asked - because it would NEVER happen.
They couldn't even do it with silver, and gold is a far different kettle of fish.

Learn who owns and controls the world's gold. You hear the 'brainwashed, financuially uneducated, say 'Ah, but gold can't buy you health'. No it can't, but it can buy you the finest surgeons, and best available drugs and surgery.

Get wise! Join the Gold Club own some gold ( OK so you are on the bottom rung of the ladder but it's a start, and at least you know you are doing what the 'big boys', the VERY big ones, do).

(Sorry I have to rush this, but so much to do. It's an exciting world, so much to do, so little time)

And they try to tell you that gold is just a commodity. Get wise. Those who run this world, are the only one's who understand the 'Power of Gold' and they learned it at a very early age.

Black Blade (1/27/2001; 1:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46611)
Many Events Caused High Gas Prices
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kmbc/20010126/lo/299908_1.html

There is no simple answer to why natural gas prices have shot up so high this winter, KMBC 9 News' Micheal Mahoney reported. Last year at this time, the basic unit of natural gas sold for $2.34, which is cheaper than a box of Cheerios.

As of Friday this week, natural gas costs four times that much. The problem is not that there is a shortage of natural gas. The problem is a collision of the worst possible events at the worst time, Mahoney reported. "The price of natural gas from New York to Georgia to Missouri is equally high," former utility regulator Carl Zobrist said. Zobrist said that he has been watching the storm building.

First, because the price of natural gas at the well used to be so low for so long, it wasn't profitable for the drilling companies to go after much of it, Mahoney reported. "We're about 1,000 rigs short of what we need to pump the gas out," Zobrist said.

Second, inventories of natural gas dropped off last summer after companies exported it to other countries who were willing to pay more for it. Electric plants powered by natural gas have also increased the demand for gas, Mahoney reported. Fed by dwindling supplies, increased use and one of the harshest Decembers the country has seen in a while, the price of natural gas skyrocketed this winter. "We're not just talking about people near the poverty line here. We've got people making pretty good money being confronted with $500 gas bills," Zobrist said.
In July, the Public Service Commission issued a warning that predicted higher natural gas prices this winter, Mahoney reported. Kansas City is less than 300 miles away from one of the biggest sources of natural gas in the country, the Huegoton fields of southwest Kansas.

Black Blade: A hit and miss here! 1) Yes! we are short drill rigs � massively short and this is a real killer! 2) No! We do not export NG to other countries � it would require either expensive liquefaction or extensive pipelines, in fact the US is a net importer (mostly from Canada). I also should note that Kalifornia officials have suggested that they purchase power from Mexico and also build power plants in Baja California. El Presidente Vincente Fox said "No Way!" they don't have enough power for Mexico, let alone for California. He also suggested that California build in their own backyard. He more or less gave Commissar Davis the "finger."

Black Blade (1/27/2001; 1:10:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46610)
Understanding the California Energy Nightmare
http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/010126/l.html

Optionetics.com

California public utilities are in trouble. The power blackouts interrupt business activity. Pipelines are disrupted and a fuel shortage looms. One sixth of the US economy is in danger of more power shortages, a temporary idling of business activity, and an interruption of the fuel supply necessary to keep the region's vital transportation system flowing. The impact on an already weakening US economy might prove grave. What happens next? Is the situation cause for alarm?

The troubles facing California can be traced to the deregulation of the utility industry in 1996 and its effect on the state's two largest utilities-PG&E (PCG) and Edison International (EIX). At that point, the two California utilities were encouraged to sell their own electricity generating facilities and turn to the open market to buy the necessary power to supply to their customers. In addition, the rates the utilities could charge their customers were capped.

When costs of power soared in the open market, but the utilities could not pass those increases on to customers, the utility companies started to lose money. Now, confronted with $11.5 billion in power-buying debt because regulators won't let them pass on all of their power costs to consumers, PCG and EIX are in danger of bankruptcy. The financial problems are making generators and gas producers reluctant to sell into the California market. The result has been a dwindling of power supplies and rolling blackouts throughout the Golden State.

California represents one-sixth of the nation's economy and should it become faced with ongoing blackouts, the consequences might prove grave. According to a research note recently put out by CS First Boston (U.S. Economics Comment: A Brief Note on California, January 18, 2001), the state of California accounts for roughly 13% of US Gross Domestic Product [GDP]. If power is a vital input to all of the state's economic activity, and electricity availability went to zero and stayed at that level for the entire first quarter, the level of US GDP would go down by 13%. That, in turn, would imply an annualized growth rate of negative 42%. For each day power is down, GDP would fall by -.5%. In short, the possibility of blackouts in California should be treated as a significant threat to the overall US economy, and by correlation, to the overall US financial markets.

Yet, while prolonged interruption of power to the Golden State poses a risk, it is also in the realm of the "unthinkable." The Federal Government has already issued a directive that requires power generators and natural gas companies to sell to the two California utilities even though they are on the brink of bankruptcy. The initiative, first issued by the Clinton administration, was recently extended until the second week of February by the Bush administration. California Governor Gray Davis said that he was confident that those two-weeks is all that is needed to restore the financial health of the California utilities and avoid any more power interruptions.

At the same time, measures are being taken at the state level to improve the situation. Since the two utility companies are no longer able to find loans to finance the purchase of power, the state has stepped in to buy it on their behalf. In an effort to do so, the state of California conducted an auction on the Internet. The auction provided companies the opportunity to supply bids to supply power to the utilities. Governor Davis hoped to lock in long-term contracts for power at about $55.00 a megawatt hour, or about 1/5 the price quoted on the California Power Exchange. The auction was completed on Wednesday and brought 39 bids at an average price of $69.00 a megawatt hour. While somewhat higher than expected, on Thursday (January 24, 2001), shares of both PG&E and Edison International soared. Investors returned to the battered stocks after the results of a state power auction gave hope that the long-term contracts will help the two utilities avoid bankruptcy.

Other proposals have been put forth that would allow PG&E and Edison International to reimburse the state. In one proposal, the two utility companies would donate their hydroelectric plants. In exchange, the state would buy more power through long-term contracts and on the spot (cash) market. In another proposal, the state would accept warrants, which provide the right to buy shares of the company's stock at a predetermined price, in exchange for buying power. Banks have also extended time on the re-payment of loans to the two utility companies.

During a question and answer period before congress, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was asked about the situation in California. He noted that California represents a sizeable percentage of the US economy and the problems there have the potential of affecting the other 49 states. Obviously, the most significant impact would come from allowing the "unthinkable" to happen, or for the state to experience a prolonged absence of power. Given the recent response by both the California and Federal governments, however, that appears to be the least likely scenario. Indeed, the Golden State may be "too big to fail."

That said, until the situation is fully resolved, the danger to the US economy and financial markets still looms. According to the aforementioned research note from CS First Boston, the longer the situation drags on, the greater the chances of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve-including a one-half percentage rate cut at the January 30-31 meeting. If so, that can be taken to suggest that the Fed Chairman and his cohorts do see the situation as a threat to the US economy. That, in turn, provides further incentives for the investor, trader, and option strategist to avoid ill timing of short-term moves in US financial markets, but instead focus on long-term profitability.

Frederic Ruffy
Senior Writer & Trading Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Trading Site
fruffy@optionetics.com

Black Blade: More and more of the investment community are beginning to come to terms with this mess. Basic material for those who regularly visit this forum, but a good primer to pass along to the "Uninformed."

Black Blade (1/27/2001; 1:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46609)
Calif. Energy Crisis Effects Arizona, Davis Deals Cloaked in Secrecy, Greenspan � Crisis Threat to Economic Expansion

By John Howard AP

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - Gov. Gray Davis and legislative leaders agreed Friday on a plan to resolve California's electricity crisis that includes public ownership of two huge utilities and years of power-buying by the state. ``The state will be in the power business for a long time to come,'' Davis said. He said details are still being worked out, but will include state ownership of utilities and long-term electricity purchases for the cash-starved companies. Southern California Edison Co. and Pacific Gas & Electric Co., the state's two largest utilities, say they have lost $12 billion since June because rate caps prevent them from passing on to their 10 million customers the full cost of wholesale electricity. The caps are part of California's decision to deregulate the electricity industry, a plan Davis has called a failure. Under the plan described by lawmakers, the state would issue bonds to cover utility debts and make customers pay the money back over 10 years through recently approved rate increases of 9 percent for residential customers and 7 to 15 percent for businesses. In exchange, California would be granted long-term options to buy low-priced stock in the utilities. The state could sell the stock and use any profits to help pay off the bonds. The utilities have declined to comment on the proposal. Lawmakers said they planned to work on the proposal through the weekend. Some demanded an investigation to learn how much taxpayer money - if any - would be at risk under the plan.

Several Republicans said Davis, a Democrat, has released too little information about the secret bidding process the state is using to find long-term contracts to buy power for SoCal Edison and PG&E customers. Assemblyman Tony Strickland, the GOP minority whip, said withholding information could cloak how much the state pays for electricity. ``This is equivalent to Governor Davis saying that he had a seven-course gourmet meal for only $20, but the price didn't include food or drink,'' Strickland said. The governor's office declined to release details on the bidding. Meanwhile, the keeper of the state power grid, the Independent System Operator, prepared for a weekend of power scrounging, though rolling blackouts like those that hit Northern California twice last week were not expected. Power was cut Friday to 1,200 businesses in Southern California that had agreed to emergency outages in return for lower rates.

California has been under a near-continuous Stage 3 alert for the past two weeks, its power grid stressed by high demand, uncertain imports, transmission problems and power plants idled for maintenance.

Arizona Gov. Jane Hull also met with Bush administration officials in Washington on Friday, saying California's energy problems are starting to affect Arizona. One utility, the San Carlos Irrigation District, said its 13,300 customers will see a 300 percent increase in next month's bills. And Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a congressional committee this week that the California crisis threatens to undermine the country's economic expansion.

Black Blade: Energy crisis in Kalifornia is spreading like wildfire. I see that the major "mainstream" media have been hitting this crisis hard over the last week or so. This situation will get much worse before it gets any better.

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