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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/27/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Peter Asher (08/27/00; 23:31:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35630) Canucks Challenge was already met Today's Forum opened up with my post of an EXACTLY twenty word excerpt from FOA/TG's earlier msg.Again: Trail Guide (8/26/2000; 22:25:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35589)>>>>> It represents a Western Style Opinion of where price should be IF they had the assets to complete the trade. <<<<<Perhaps that is not a complete enough statement and therefore ET is correct. It actually takes twenty-nine words to fully answer Canuck's question:The price of Gold is determined by the futures market because people believe the "Market Makers" are "Good for it." When that belief is shattered, Gold will rise dramatically. Hill Billy Mitchell (08/27/00; 23:09:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35629) Canuck (8/27/2000; 19:07:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35621) You Ask:…If someone asked you to explain in TWENTY WORDS or less why gold is to rise what would you say?My answer - in 18 words:The dollar will become anathema to the world outside the U.S., and will come home to roost.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (08/27/00; 22:06:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35628) @ Journeyman (8/23/2000; 8:28:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 35392) You said:"…Hill Billy, sorry I haven't had time to respond to you. I don't have the time and perhaps lack the expertise to help you with the number inversion project. I would have to educate myself on one more topic, and I'm having trouble keeping up on home things as it is. I was hoping that you would do all the work on that inversion and I could be a passive little information consumer! <blush>"My response:You are not getting off the hook quite that easily!You misunderstand what I desire from you. Let me explain:I have gone to a great expenditure in time and effort to get interest rate history on an enormous spreadsheet. My purpose is to get some honest data, which can be studied and manipulated so that we can draw our own conclusions without the biased opinions fired at random in the controlled media. The reason I am so interested in your participation is simply this. I find you to be the most open-minded, clear thinking and honest person on this forum. Now that doesn't mean that I do not find quite a few others who are open-minded, clear thinking and honest on our forum. I single you out because I choose to.Now here is what I am interested in from you: - I would like to send all of the raw data to you by mail. Just reviewing it will be a delight, I promise you. I am a theorist and not a scientist like an ORO, whom I consider a genius. As a theorist I have a powerful thirst for information. I am a very slow reader yet I read every thing I can get may hands on in the areas of economic theory. I have a B.S. degree in accounting; however, due to my great interest in economics I have more college hours in economics than I have in accounting. I feel that I have a good grasp of general economic theory but am not the technician that others are on this forum. It takes all kinds working together to get a deeper understanding of how and why things happen. If we know how and why things happen we have a better hope of preparing for the consequences of certain actions if we know what these actions are and we understand who is executing and what their agenda is.There is no doubt in my mind that, when I arm you with the same information that I have and I begin to post my thoughts as to what appears to be transpiring under our noses, you will be able to spot the validity and or fallacy of such offerings. I am not interested in your expertise for ORO and a few others will provide the expertise. I am interested in your uncanny ability to see the truth when it passes in front of your eyes. I ask that you pay especial attention to this subject of Treasury Yields, when it appears on the forum and ask the probing questions which must be asked and offer your thoughts which I am certain will form in your mind as time goes by.My plan is very simple. I will try to provide information and theoretical comments in this area on an ongoing basis in order to stimulate an in depth investigation into the matter. I am convinced that this, though a small part of the whole puzzle, is the sort of thing that TPTB do not want us to understand. The more ignorant we are in these mystical areas of money matters, the better they like it.I would like to have your permission to send the information at this time. I understand that you are busy. Just when you get a little time to review it you can contact me and we can pursue the thing only as far as you might desire or be able to find the time.Sir RossL has posted his email address on the forum therefore I will use it to establish contact with you outside of this forum. His email address is rossl@iwon.comWould please email him and he will give you my email address. Then you can email your address to me and I can get your mailing address and or fax # so that I can get this information to you. I will be transmitting the spreadsheet files to Ross. He is going to see if he can do some graphs and charts which will help from time to time. I am not a "journeyman" with computer spreadsheets and can only do a limited amount of data manipulation. I have seen his SDR site and if he desires to do something meaningful with the data I am sure that he is capable to do so. He has offered to take a look-see and I have decided to trust him. My gut is that he is full of integrity. I have learned to trust my gut and seldom get burned by doing so.Anyway this has been ridiculously long so I will bring it to a close.Very respectfully,HBMPS: We have plenty of time to get around to the subsidy issue. No hurry!PSS: Just to make sure that you read this I will repost this after midnight Mountain Time ET (08/27/00; 21:34:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 35627) Canuck, goldhunter Hey fellows - how's it going? Canuck, you wrote;"There have been many posts in the last week concerning the dying, defaulting and defunct futuresmarkets."Question: If the futures are so obviously manipulated and distorted, then why is price of gold stilldetermined by this method?"Maybe you answered your own question, eh?"I think we have agreed this week that the price of physicalis set from the futures. This is a fact, because we can buy an once tomorrow at 'spot'. Spot is an'immediate' future.Further, the BOE auctions have sold at or near 'spot' consistantly."I believe the operative word is "tomorrow". Until recently, I had traded futures for over fifteen years. I quit trading in 1998 for fear of liquidity drying up to the point where although I may get paid, the medium in which I would be paid would lose its purchasing power. This is essentially the argument that FOA and others are making. This is a particular problem for gold because gold is the underlying money in the world and if paper gold liquidity dries up it would signal that real money has become 'dear' and fiat has lost its purchasing power. Tomorrow I still may find liquidity in the gold paper market but Tuesday I may not. If Tuesday comes and I can't trade because of an unwillingness by counterparties to take the other side of my trade, would I be better off having not entered into the contract at all?My car was running fine until I hit that wall."So from this statement and the above question, what is wrong with this picture?"a) the market is not crooked.b) the supply/demand shortfall is not what we think, and a surge of 'delivery' could be covered.c) we anticipate a default as in the palladium market."We cannot prove a) or b) so we trend on c). Why?"All you have to go with is whether you believe the liquidity will be there when you need it. goldhunter is right, gold is 'priced' in the futures markets 'today'."If anyone would like to comment on this I'd love to hear. I think that if gold is to skyrocket thenfutures will explode as a result of. The failing gold futures market is a symptom of moonshootinggold. "This brings us back to: Why is the price of gold going to rise (hopefully alot)?"Gold's price in currency may rise tremendously, but all that really says is that the currency is worth less. Gold's price in say some other commodity like oil may not rise at all."If someone asked you to explain in TWENTY WORDS or less why gold is to rise what would yousay?"I would say it would be difficult to do in twenty words. <g> R Powell (08/27/00; 21:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35626) The Question Have goldhunter, JMB and Shermag all given us the same answer? An excellent question and three very excellent answers. Shermag (08/27/00; 21:02:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 35625) Canuck's twenty word challenge Gold is always a safe store of value in major economic dislocations, such as that which we face very soon. JMB (8/27/2000; 20:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35624) CANUCK'S Dare/Contest: Why is the price of gold going to rise (hopefully alot)? 20 words or less. Fear of economic dislocations will lead to sentiment changes demonstrating the effects of lower gold supply relative to money supply. (huh?) Aristotle:You're starting to get to me! Mr Gresham (8/27/2000; 20:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35623) Canuck -- your last post Just touching in for a minute and reading nothing of the discussion previous to your last post:It seems to me that the key to a "rigged" market is knowledgeable people playing with OPM -- Other Peoples' Money -- in the case of government, the taxpayers' revenues, and for players like GS, Merrill etc, their clients' investments -- while THEY line their own personal reserves (no loyalty to the brokerage OR the clients) with cheap gold. And hitching a ride on what they see as the government's priority of keeping fiat in force.They either believe that govt will cover their institutions against their default, or that they as individuals can walk away with personal fortunes while letting the institutions they control default. "Heads I win, tails you lose." Meanwhile, fees and trading profits. A risk/reward bet arbitraged by govt insurance and the bankruptcy option.I STILL can't see how they think there is anything to be made betting against gold on the short side (which every contract must represent some of). So they must be arbitraging their own money vs. OPM that they control.They either believe what we believe about currency and value, and are playing it smoothly and dishonestly from their privileged positions, or, they believe they have market-making power no one else has ever had and can continue to control and profit from the situation. It's hard to tell which, since they're not talking. (Or the only word out of them ever will be the official "we're in control" story.)Only alternative to all this is they believe that gold has been dethroned of receiving significant valuation by wealth-bearing humanity for enough into the future to make it a stagnant investment, and/or they think they can get on board quickly enough if it takes off, and they'll recognize the psychological trend in time. Meanwhile, the game is played in fiat.It is really hard to believe they cannot see the statistics of how much counterparty betting there is in fiat, and that most will not be able to cash in their paper winnings at the casino, but will receive only a curt "So, sue me." Just hard to believe. That's why I assume as individuals, many of them are doing an "Armstrong" (closet full o' bullion.)Has the utter cynicism of these guys failed to protect them at this most crucial moment, with volcanic pressures of economic reversal already built up? Hard to believe, but possible. We shall see? goldhunter (8/27/2000; 20:11:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35622) AH...THE Question... Hi Mr. Canuck...You win the prize for the question...64,000?Actually, much more than that...We come to this and other venues for THE ANSWER...I wish I knew for sure, yes, I would share with everyone...who wouldn't?I have one guess, and it takes about 20 words:Start counting after my "setup...Setup: I heard sometime ago...4 or 5 years or so that if 10% of all the money that was invested in the stockmarket was invested in gold, that the price would go to $3500 per oz. overnight...Start counting: Maybe 8-10% of stock market money will seek "insurance" value of gold (for diversity)of their portfolios. Mr. Canuck, this demand alone could cause gold to soar...maybe even higher than we can imagine...Great question... Canuck (8/27/2000; 19:07:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35621) Futures Markets There mave been many posts in the last week concerning the dying, defaulting and defunk futures markets.Question: If the futures are so obviously manipulated and distorted, then why is price of gold still determined by this method?I think we have agreed this week that the price of physicalis set from the futures. This is a fact, because we can buy an once tomorrow at 'spot'. Spot is an 'immediate' future.Further, the BOE auctions have sold at or near 'spot' consistantly.So from this statement and the above question, what is wrong with this picture?a) the market is not crooked.b) the supply/demand shortfall is not what we think, and a surge of 'delivery' could be covered.c) we anticipate a default as in the palladium market.We cannot prove a) or b) so we trend on c). Why?If anyone would like to comment on this I'd love to hear. I think that if gold is to skyrocket then futures will explode as a result of. The failing gold futures market is a symptom of moonshooting gold. This brings us back to: Why is the price of gold going to rise (hopefully alot)?If someone asked you to explain in TWENTY WORDS or less why gold is to rise what would you say?Perhaps a little dare/contest brews? SteveH (8/27/2000; 18:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35620) Tommy http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000827/l2715379.htmlSunday August 27, 3:04 pm Eastern TimeBIS-Global real estate boom bears watchingBASEL, Switzerland, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said potential risks tied to soaring real estate prices coupled with heavy lending to that sector bear close watching. SteveH (8/27/2000; 18:56:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35619) Tommy Thanks for the links. I noted (and correct me if I misinterpreted them) that inflation in home values in the Texas area you referred to shows a 20% average annual inflation rate in the price of homes. Am I missing anything?Steve Gandalf the White (8/27/2000; 17:54:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35618) HBM's Question The Hobbits fully believe that HE LIVES !!!BUT is just so busy that we must hear from him through FOA.<;-) Hill Billy Mitchell (8/27/2000; 17:25:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35617) CoBra(too) (8/27/2000; 16:44:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35615 cb2No advise from me. Just a plea. Don't quit posting. There are lots of us relaxing lurkers out here who enjoy your posts. I'm still reading. You did ramble a little but so do most of us. Sometimes we clear the air that way. I have been reviewing all of the writings of Another lately. He said much in a short time. He admitted that "time would prove all things.I am amazed that he had so much to offer and that after a couple of years so many profound statements and scenarios offered by him, though questionable, still they have not been disproven altogether.You are correct. There many roads that lead to Rome. The road to finally be taken may still be under construction.Did you notice that "Another" hinted at the ""Washington Agreement" long before the "Thunder in the night"?I get a feeling from the evolution of his writings from the very beginning to when he quit communicating with us that he no longer is able to do so. He is either deceased, in a coma, had a stroke, or in some other way been incapacited.Otherwise he simply could not contain himself by this long silence. I have even considered that he is a hoax, but have temporarily ruled that out. I have a good way to travel before I complete my review of his writings.What think you?hbm SHIFTY (8/27/2000; 17:14:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35616) CPI Calculator Just was at Black Blades link (CPI numbers) and used their inflation calculator to figure the change in a twenty dollar gold oz. In 1913 $20.00 had the buying power of $345.00 today !$hifty:) CoBra(too) (8/27/2000; 16:44:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35615) Discussion - usually implies there's something ... at least to discuss. The silence of the forum (...lambs - just finished Hannibal # 2 of a series) tells me to 'cuss myself. I'll heed the nice advice - take care cb2 CoBra(too) (8/27/2000; 16:19:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35614) I guess all on this forum have understood the message - Physical gold is the place to be - anything else is playing the paper (pyramid) game and helping the colluders keeping up the fake $-fiat system, which has outlived itself by a fair amount of time. Agreed, in its fundamental truth. Though, I still believe - and I'm not talking about timing - No, only about color - not all you see is strictly black or white, which may imply all different shades of gray, and don't forget there are a host of other colors not even spoken for - aside of golden yellow. What I'm trying to substantiate (in my clumsy attempt to express myself in your lingo), even if the eventual outcome of a given seems totally clear, there are many roads left to get to Rome. To some, they may seem as back alleys, while others profit from taking de-routes to the common and thankfully guided trail to the Messiah via the euro to gold. As I've said before, I'm becoming more of a sceptic of the euro as a venable alternative to the the fiat-$ - essentially its only benefit is its novelty (disregarding 15% gold reserve and ECB resolution on interest on Sept. 1 - anything below 0.5% rise will be met by my determination to abandon this other fiat currency for gold),though it is lesss a question of asset backing than of political indecision. In this case, as the recent strenght of the US $indicates, the war hasn't even been declared. Agreed, behind the scenes, as maybe the WA was (ill timed- as it turned out to be) conceived to be a shot in front of the $ - bow wave, had its only effect in opening the euro eyes to the stark reality of its own big players - entangled in the same kind of collusion with their BB U.S. brethren - A new currency - losing a quarter of its value - again agreed relative to (though commonly accepted) pricing ratios and politically not really accepted in its own marketplace - may become a must not fail - also - but hard to accept for hard - DM (or its 30 yr satellite ATS)defenders. Actually, I have to admit I didn't want to post this at all- so please handle with care - since I never reread my wandering thoughts. And I appreciate some color vs. black aand white - there are better "Scotches" for you - cb2 SHIFTY (8/27/2000; 16:15:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35613) Periodic Ponzi Update Nasdaq 4042.68 + Dow 11192.63 = 15,235.31 divide by 2 = 7617.65 PonziUp 129.24 from last week$hifty:) JMB (8/27/2000; 16:09:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 35612) No more Mr. Nice Guy WOOOA!...What was that scraping sound? Probably Peter Asher jumping out of his chair while reaching for the "bounce button". Relax Pete, I think you're going to like this...well, some of it. I intend to follow Bill Murphy's lead and mention the words "Gold", "Manipulation", and "Exchange Stabilization Fund" every chance I get. I just might become a graffiti-terrorist-type and write, "Gold manipulation at the Exchange Stabilization Fund" on bathroom walls, phone booth stalls, and replace the very trite "Have a nice day" with, "Remember, there's gold manipulation at the Exchange Stabilization Fund". For fast getaways, I may have to shorten it to GMATESF...looks as good as 'NAMASTE.I sincerely believe that the Exchange Stabilization Fund is the major culprit behind our problems. If you have not already done so, take a look at the structure of this very unconstitutional agency. The President and the Secretary of the Treasury run it and they are not accountable to anyone...IT SEEMS IMPOSSIBLE. Remember when the problems really started for goldbugs? 1933...the ESF confiscated our gold...these are the sons-of-bitches that were authorized to pull off the dirty deed. It's pay back time, Kats 'n Jammers. Let's go, let's go.In closing...if I had any juice around here I would nominate Sir Black Blade for a "Post of the Month Award" for his outstanding "Death of a Rigged Metals Market". I'm going to re-read it right now. megatron (8/27/2000; 16:09:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35611) black blade And does any of this surprise anyone? This is an exact copy of what they are going to do to Gold and before that Silver. I will bet my life on it. The people who are in this game have NO morality left. They couldn't care less. Why do you think they are there? They will also shut down kitco instantly along with any other info services if they feel the 'rabble' are getting excited. The president STOLE your gold once,PHYSICALLY!!!!!, they didn't care then, did they? What's some bulls#@#@# paper to them. I've said it before and i'll say it again, NOTHING is going to happen in PGM's until macro-economic events overwhelm them. Repeat. Nothing. When that day happens you and I are going to laugh our non-traceable capital gains ass's all the way a friendly Antiguan bank. CoBra(too) (8/27/2000; 14:50:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35610) ... BTW ...the (thought about) pyramids ... 'r I. Not plagiatarized for once. So I hope you'll end your weekend with a thought towards who "owns" our public, private and, while wer'e at it corporate, debt! ... neither deflation, nor inflation will make it go away - since it may only be adjustment to price ratios - what's left - default? Who's fault - St. Andrea's? too cheap an escape ... for a faulty administration, part of the same standing for re-election - which they would deserve ... to deal with the aftermath of the mess they've caused! Plain pidgin: "See You through? - cb2 CoBra(too) (8/27/2000; 14:24:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 35609) The "Stabilizers" .... Just finished reading Bill Bucklers latest "Privateer", another masterpiece from from a vastly independent mind from the land of Oz. A few snippets from a long, though great story. " In terms of its eventual effects, there is nothing worse than an inadvertently or mistakenly using the wrong measuring standards. Right now what the world is seeing for the second time, and on a global scale, is a huge repeat of the events that took place between 1922 and 1929." While Irving Fisher and even Keynes went so far as to say the Fed's policy was "perfect". The only dissenter was Ludwig von Mises - postulating that the end result will be a huge crash. And ... Inflation is NOT a rise in prices. as ... Deflation is NOT a fall in prices. PRICES are a RATIO of the monetary system used - good or bad! This guy reminds of A/FOA and I have to compliment him on his easy read and comprehensible message, though clear and well written. And my last plagitarian steal:... There i one fundamental reason why the U.S. has enjoyed its financial and economic boom times over thep last 6 y's, it is the record of foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury "privaately held public debt". In the first half of the 1990's, the figure held steady at just above 20%level. Since 1995 it has more than DOUBLED to 41.6% (May 31 00): Aug. 24 2000 - Debt of US TSY:$ 3,445,014,469,852,71 - Debt owed to the public$ 2,232,667,270,949.33 - Debt held by the (US) government$ 5,677,681,740,802.04 - The public debt "to the penny" (http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/bpd/bpthome.htm)So the government owns 2,3 Trillion of its own debt - how about you - do you own your own debt - well, if yes good luck! and still the gov. is buying back more of its own debt by virtue of "virtual" budget surplusses.The old egyptians built their pyramids rock solid and invented papyros. The new economists invented virtual pyramids of paper - get solid fundaments - go gold - cb2 714 (8/27/2000; 13:32:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35608) lamprey_65 Thanks for the heads up...I'm just trying to get a sense of how my bullion investment would move in a capped market. Guess I'll stay away from linking to eBay, but I will post what I find out in following these kind of "off-market" deals.Mr. Kosares, do you sell palladium coins? Thank you. Peter Asher (8/27/2000; 11:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35607) Oil War http://www.newsmax.com/articles/?a=2000/8/26/204458 China Puts 700,000 Troops on Alert in Sudan China Puts 700,000 Troops on Alert in Sudan NewsMax.com Sunday, Aug. 27, 2000 In a stunning revelation, London's Sunday Telegraph is reporting in today's editions that China has as many as 700,000 troops in the Sudan and is preparing to enter that country's civil war. According to the British paper, for the past three years China has been bringing Chinese nationals into the Sudan by cargo jets and boats. Ostensibly, the Chinese were to serve as guards at oil fields and facilities controlled by the China National Petroleum Corporation. The introduction of Chinese troops comes in the wake of the military success of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) headed by Col. Johnny Garang. Garang's forces, largely Christian, have been battling Sudan's Islamic regime which controls the country's oil region in the Upper Nile. SPLA troops are reported to be just 10 miles from these oil fields. The Islamic regime has made an emergency request that China crush the SPLA forces and end the country 17-year-old civil war. Oil production began in Sudan just last year, and since then arms have been flowing in from Libya, Qatar and China. The Telegraph cites an internal document from the Sudanese military indicating that "as many as 700,000 Chinese security personnel were available for action." Baroness Caroline Cox, the leading human rights activist for Christians in Sudan, criticized Western governments for their complacency and complicity. She said: "If with foreign help the NIF regime crushes all opposition we will have entrenched in the heart of Africa a militant Islamist regime aimed at spreading terrorism throughout the continent. It's unbelievably serious for the future of democracy in Africa and could happen in the next few weeks." British companies, and Canada's Talisman Energy, have joined the Chinese to help develop its oil production facilities and pipelines. Human rights activists have criticized Western governments for backing the militant Islamic regime in Khartoum, one that has killed civilians to clear areas for oil production. Christian groups have also publicized the regime's use of slavery. China's involvement in the ongoing civil war may prove to be the most unusual twist, and may represent the largest movement of one army into another country that went completely undetected by other nations. A Western aid worker in southern Sudan told the Telegraph, "Everyone knows what is going on. We've all seen the Chinese being brought in and can only pray about what's going to happen next." The use of Chinese "workers" as a military force may raise serious concerns about the growing number of Chinese illegals detected in Central America and the Caribbean. Chinese influence in Panama which controls the Panama Canal has already raised serious warning froms military experts, including Adm. Thomas Moorer, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Read Christopher Ruddy's special report on China's new air and sea base just 60 miles from Florida in the Bahamas. Click Here (Go to link) lamprey_65 (8/27/2000; 11:29:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35606) 714 A "glut" in gold? Tell that to the shorts scrounging for the metal in size.Oh, careful on posting Ebay links here...MK doesn't take too kindly to it -- just a heads up. 714 (8/27/2000; 11:21:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35605) Off-market palladium deals... http://search.ebay.com/search/search.dll?MfcISAPICommand=GetResult&query=palladium&ht=1&ebaytag1=ebayreg&ebaytag1code=&CATEGORY0=866&SortProperty=MetaEndSort ...something to keep an eye on. 714 (8/27/2000; 11:05:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35604) re: palladium There's differences between the palladium market and the gold market.First, there's a genuine shortage of palladium. Some 70% is mined by Russia and they just aren't shipping, for whatever reason. The physical just isn't there. Whereas with gold, so much of it has been mined in the last twenty years, that there is, for now, a glut of it. With gold, the physical IS there. The paper trade in palladium has not caused the shortage of palladiumSecond, central banks are capable of selling their gold into the market, whereas they have no holdings in palladium. And given gold's history as money, it might well be subject to currency regulations, as evidenced by US regulation of it from the 30's up to the 70's.Having said that, the two markets DO share similarities. The paper trade has obviously exagerrated price movements in both markets. The gold shortage, when and if it comes, will be caused by a run on it and not because it isn't being shipped.Anybody have ANY info on palladium inventories or of-market deals? Black Blade (8/27/2000; 8:03:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35603) How Some Bogus CPI Numbers are Derived! http://stats.bls.gov/cpihome.htm If you got a strong stomach, the link takes you to several papers at the BLS showing how the CPI is contrived and manipulted into the bogus numbers that represent the official rates of inflation. The various measures of hedonic statistics are covered. Massage the numbers with a bit of wishful thinking and POOF! Like magic, no inflation! Ah well, gotta go fish and slam a few cold ones! Black Blade (8/27/2000; 7:40:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35602) Re tedw http://www.cvff.org/golden_trout1.htm True, but in Russia taxes can and usually add up to over 100% of profits. A particular tractor company once built tractors, drove them to the state tax offices, parked the tractors in front, and declared taxes paid! The beaurocrats were stumped! Oh well, I'm of for the now, got to go catch some high country Cut-throats. Unfortunately not the Golden Trout found at the link above. They didn't survive the transplant here, bummer! Be back tonight. Cheers - Black Blade tedw (8/27/2000; 7:20:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 35601) Death of a rigged metals market http://www.usagold.com Good post Black Blade but just one comment."Russia still operated their economy under corrupt Soviet Style management practises, they over taxed businesses.."Isnt that what the Congress and the IRS does in America too? tedw (8/27/2000; 7:05:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35600) Gold as a competing investment http://www.usagold.com When one looks objectively at Gold as a competing investment in the market place, you have to conclude that it is not the most attractive investment at the present time. I believe that any prudent man should have a percentage of his investments in Gold, for his own protection and the protection of his family. However, if you bought Gold and put it in your vault last year at this time, you didnt earn any interest. Its true that the price is currently up about 9% over the year, but there are many investments which pay much more. For example, in my area if you had bought real estate you would have made 15%-25% on the real estate, and had income from it to boot. Or 2nd trust deeds on real estate could have netted you $12%-15% with little risk. And of course,many investors are content to keep their investments in the DOW, content with the belief that in the long term their investments will do much better than parked in Gold.Or even money in CD's which provide a certain rate of return which is guaranteed while Gold itself comes with no guarantee.In order for Gold to attract the investment dollar there has to be change. A stock market crash?Runaway inflation? Or perhaps both.A stock market crash by itself would probably not be enough.After all, if other investments (bondsb etc) are providing security plus interest they seem to be more attractive. Inflation coupled with a stock market crash would do it. When people lose faith in the dollar, when they lose faith in the stock market, then Gold becomes attractive.And then when supply and demand work together the price of Gold will rise. Now this may be too simple, but it is my limited way of viewing things. No Government in the world today would like to see Goldrise. Rising Gold means their fiat dollars are shown to be what they areI see trouble signs on the horizon. A stock market which has been threatening to crash for some time. Rising oil prices harbinging inflation. And a world (lost in sin I might add) which is increasingly dangerous with war clouds on the horizon in the Mideast and Fareast. Black Blade (8/27/2000; 6:51:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 35599) Death of a Rigged Metals Market The Palladium markets have been under some very strange manipulations over the last several weeks. There is a very good chance that Palladium will be delisted or very severely restricted from futures trading in the near future. Much of this is a result of greedy unscrupulous and probable criminal actions of those that manage and oversee the commodities exchanges in Tokyo at the Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) and the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). The troubles began when more contracts for Palladium metal were sold than actual deliverable physical metal in the possession of certain counter-parties. This story has its beginnings in the Fall of the Soviet Union. First Russia is the source for about 70% of the worlds Palladium The Palladium is a by-product from nickel mining operations at Norilsk Nickel. Another simple fact is that the Russians have been in a very serious hard currency crunch since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. The Russians took out loans and issued worthless bonds for a few years as they struggled to dig their way out of over 70 years of government mismanagement under communist rule. The Russian Bond default almost brought world markets under severe pressure and many firms went under. However, these people in Russia had no experience with a free-market and still operated their economy under corrupt Soviet-style management practices, they over-taxed businesses, they stole foreign investment moneys, and they even got into bed with Russian Organized Crime. Anything of value was looted by criminals and corrupted individuals, many of whom themselves are Russian Politicians or former Politburo members. In the resulting hard currency crunch as the worthless Russian bonds came due and were eventually defaulted on, there was a rush to shake down legitimate businesses through extortion and excessive taxation, to sell off former state-owned enterprises to corrupt cronies of Russian politicians for a pittance, and to loot hard assets including government stockpiles precious metals. The simple fact is that the PGM stockpiles of many years worth of mining are depleted. Any PGMs that are to be delivered will have to come from current mining production at Norilsk Nickel. A major problem at Norilsk Nickel as with most any enterprise in Russia is 1) that the operations are grossly inefficient and are in dire need of funds to upgrade operations to at least 20th century standards, and 2) the Russian workers don't get paid on a regular basis which is not only bad for morale, but does not provide a lot of incentive for productivity. Unfortunately many businesses still try to run on the old Soviet model which simply does not work. In the old Soviet Union, workers were paid a set rate whether or not they were productive. In the real world, this does not provide an incentive to produce goods and services. No matter how you slice it, there is no sufficient supply of Russian Palladium coming to market. The Russians tried to disguise this inefficiency by employing delaying tactics while in negotiations with the Japanese in talks earlier this year. Eventually the talks resulted in much higher prices for the Palladium contracts, yet supply has not reached the market in any meaningful quantity and is sporadic at best. Realizing the severity of the problem, many commodities investors in Japan bought heavily into the Palladium futures contracts. Like most any greedy and corrupt organization, the TOCOM generously wrote contracts for what was undeliverable metal without checking whether or not this commodity was even in existence. But greed is a powerful emotion and the TOCOM became a place of wild dealing and speculation. They thought that they could control the situation with numerous press releases and by setting "analysts" loose with erroneous information in an effort to deceive the market. Eventually this became a delaying tactic of choice as they searched for a way out of the developing short squeeze. Many who had actually believed the erroneous reports went short the Palladium market. The market was totally out of control. More and more press releases were set loose on the investment community that there were deliveries of Palladium on the way, and that they would arrive "any day" now. The situation was getting more critical almost on an hourly basis as it was beginning to become apparent that the metal was not coming to market. Soon many traders began to go long Palladium futures. The short squeeze was on! The TOCOM manipulators got caught with their pants around their ankles and even with the risk of "losing face", they did the most dishonorable thing that they could. They defaulted on the Palladium contracts! In effect, they shut down the Palladium market. They forced the longs to settle at market in order to help bail out the shorts. The free-market in Palladium on the TOCOM was killed. Now we move to New York were the last bastion of the "so-called" free-market in commodities is located in the from of the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). Many commodities investors thought that at least in the USA there wouldn't be such gross manipulation of the Palladium market. They were to be proven wrong. A short review of the Hunt Brothers and the Silver squeeze and the more recent settlement at market on the contracts during the developing short squeeze when the Washington Agreement was announced should have been a lesson learned. The corrupt managers of manipulative commodities exchanges such as the NYMEX change rules at will in order to manipulate the markets and to ultimately steal from investors. The latest manipulation in Palladium brings us to New York. In early August after the TOCOM had defaulted on Palladium futures contracts, the NYMEX realized that they too had a developing short squeeze in the works. What to do? Why not engineer a profit making scheme and manipulate the Palladium market at the same time? Hell, the CFTC is a toothless tiger, so why not? They didn't investigate curious happenings in other metals markets, so the signal was given that the CFTC would not interfere.In early August, the NYMEX imposed substantial margins on Palladium futures contracts. The result was to drive prices lower in a grossly obvious manipulation of the Palladium market. This caused many investors to quickly exit the market in order to lock their profits. On August 14, the September Palladium contract fell as much as $60 per ounce. Now all exchanges require margin in order to cover the risk of losses, but in the Palladium market, this went beyond reality. Margins were raised six times in short order. On August 15th it was raised to $60,000 per contract, on August 16th it was raised to $80,000 per contract, and on August 17Th it was raised yet again to $100,000 per contract! Of course the 100 ounce contract was only worth $74,000 per contract at that time. The manipulation scheme by the NYMEX criminals was on! The washout of certain investors was set with bogus excuses such as to "ensure an orderly market" - read "manipulated market". By the close of business on August 18th, the margin on contract had risen over the course of 10 days to $100,000 from $5,000 for clearing house members, to $110,000 from $5,000 for members, and to $135,000 from $6.750 for customers. Many had wondered how can a margin requirement be set for as much as 150% of the total contract value? This was unprecedented! They weren't finished! They even had the gall to announce that margins would be raised further to $200,000 as if to tempt fate with the emasculated CFTC, however, this was eventually rescinded prior to implementation. I guess like all cockroaches, when the lights are turned on they scatter to the dark recesses to get out of under public scrutiny. What was the NYMEX trying to do? The answer is obvious - manipulation, pure and simple! Open interest on outstanding contracts (September) had fallen from 852 to 783 contracts when the market opened after the announcement. Open interest in December futures increased to 1,234 contracts from 900 contracts, indicating that 300 rollovers had taken place. Many angry market participants claim that this was the intention of the NYMEX manipulators. The NYMEX simply wanted to force as many players out of the market as possible before a truly powerful (and profitable) short squeeze began, or better yet, manipulate the price lower to bail out the shorts just like in Tokyo. Dishonor knows no nationality or culture it seems - crooks hang out in the same circles. The greed factor was at work in New York just as it was in Tokyo. There was not enough metal on hand and yet these NYMEX crooks sold more contracts for metal than existed. In fact, the entire warehouse stocks are only 150 contracts! The NYMEX-approved warehouses are located in New York and Wilmington, Del. From my point of view, I think that this could be a contract killing situation for most Palladium market participants. However, those who hang on and take delivery may be in an excellent situation. The Russians cannot and will not deliver the metal in sufficient quantity as I have stated for months now. The actual priced for the physical metal could far surpass the paper contract price. If only a few participants take delivery, the warehouse are bare. The Platinum metal supply situation is better, yet there are some supply problems here as well. As the industrial users of Palladium shift to Platinum and Rhodium, these prices are likely to come under increased pressure as well. Fortunately Platinum and Rhodium are a bit more available from sources outside of Russia such as South Africa, US, and Canada. The Palladium futures market was killed! There is now speculation that the Palladium market may simply be delisted. Can the same thing happen in other commodities? Obviously! I appears that manipulation in the Gold and Silver markets is an open secret. The CFTC has no compelling interest in performing their stated function of ensuring a free and fair commodities market. The moral of the story? Take possession of physical metal, invest in unhedged and profitable miners who have little or no debt, stay out of the rigged options and futures markets, and wait as the inevitable price increases occur. The death of the paper metals market is certain. The game is rigged. - Black Blade LeSin (8/27/2000; 6:00:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35598) Palladium Price $2000 @ NYMEX - View of One Reader http://www.gold-eagle.com:3128/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html?date=2000%3A08%3A25%3A13%3A00%3A00Palladium is Going For Over $2,000 an Ounce (Voltaire) Aug 25, 13:29 I've been thinking about the palladium contract situation at the NYMEX. The "authorities" at the NYMEX would have us believe that they have raised the margin requirements to over 200% of the value of the contract, but I would insist that it is impossible for any consumer to pay more than 100% for anything.What the NYMEX has admitted to ( in a very underhanded manner ) is that the actual price of palladium is actual over 100% higher than the price they would have the public believe it to be, I say that simply because thatis the price they are charging their customers when they buy 100 ounces of palladium for future delivery from their exchange. Lets cutout the BS, today if you wanted to buy 100 ounces of palladium in New York at the NYMEX for future delivery, the going price was over US$2,000 an ounce. That is what the exchange is charging, and getting, so that is the price of palladium in New York. This is the awful truth of it all, don't be fooled, palladium was going for over US$2,000 at the NYMEX inNew York this week.I'm saying that with an over "100% margin requirement" the price to be paid for the metal is not what is to be seen in the official price published by the exchange. The actual price in the case of palladium is the cost of the margin demanded by the exchange divided by the 100ounces of palladium that the contract represents, any other price is the wrong price.But there is so more to it than just lying about the actual price of palladium. By the exchange's refusal to admit that palladium was going for over $2,000 an ounce this week on all future deliveries by contriving this fiction of a plus 100% margin requirement on the palladium contract, they are not just demonstrating what a rigged, manipulated scam they are running in the palladium pits in New York they have also found a way where they can steal the profits the longs have coming to them in a up trending market. In the palladium pits in New York there are no longer bulls and bears or longs and shorts, no, with this new margin requirement that isgreater than the official published price of the underlying metal there are only confidence men and the suckers they prey upon. Like one of Soapy Smith's crooked schemes in Skagway during the Yukon gold rush, they let you take all of the risk but they take all of the profit and the law looks the other way. What's will it take for them to jump on all the rest of the profitable palladium trades, "margin requirements" of 300%, 500%, 1000% on the NYMEX's phony never changing $740 dollar palladium? The guy who thought of this one deserves every ill gotten dollar the banksters are paying him. It must be legal too! I'm sure the lawyers signed off on it, that is really scary.If their was one smoking gun for market manipulation in the precious metals markets this is it! This is something any jury in America could understand.This is criminal genius worthy of the metal shorts! goldhunter (8/27/2000; 5:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35597) Some Agreement for us... I also believe that supply and demand are true fundamentals that help set prices for metals...and oil, grain, even PT CRUISERS...Try one other variable along with fundamentals...price behavior, or technicals. Specifically, what does the chart say?Since "we all look at the same charts" some folks profess to see value in where we have been in the past to determine or predict where we might be in the future...This may be useful to us all because certain breakout points may be areas where some may add to their positions (physical or paper)and some bottoming formations may (also) be (price) areas where some may add.If you give any weight at all to the premise that your gold coins trade with Comex contracts, one can easily track the price/value of your gold investment by looking at a chart.One may also choose to see if the recent past and longer term past has a positve or negative slope to the graph...and grasp what "chartists" believe: Any and all fundamentals are factored in to the price.I do not subscribe entirely to the chartist view, but it also is an interesting debate. I too, as FOA/Trail Guide insists, believe fundamentals set prices. 714 (8/27/2000; 5:11:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35596) Thoughts! 714: In a capped market, such as we've seen in Tokyo with palladium, where would a bullion holder go to get higher prices? All the way to Jidda?-------Trail Guide: Why hell, if one had a camera he could take a picture of it being traded on the sidewalk, just outside the COMEX! (smile) Wouldn't happen, you say?*********************************************************Anybody know where "physical" palladium is trading now? I wonder if it's being traded out on the sidewalk tomorrow? HI - HAT (08/27/00; 04:59:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 35595) scruffy________Silence of the Dog That the paper gold tail, has wagged the physical gold dog, goes without saying.With all the bad mouthing of gold, by short intereststhe classic Sherlock Holmes question about the dog not barking comes to mind, as why it's never surmised by press of who stupidly has been buying all this physical gold.You make a good point on what will happen when more and more big money interests make a run for physical.A drop, a trickle, a stream, a raging river,..the Ocean...Nice to hear you here........Bark..Bark. wolavka (08/27/00; 04:36:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 35594) Anxious Al forewarned of competition in derivatives mkts moving offshore. Make no mistake futures set the price.Good start of week coming for Gold. WAC (Wide Awake Club) (8/27/2000; 4:18:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 35593) On the Verge Of World III and you weren't even told. http://www.sightings.com/general3/even.htm Lyndon LaRouche spelled it out in an Aug. 20 statement reading in part: "At this point, no miracle could save the present IMF-centered global financial and monetary system from collapse in the immediate future. The system is doomed, hopelessly so. That is the good news. The bad news is, that the presently ruling international financier-oligarchy will not willingly accept its inevitable doom peacefully. "That oligarchy, as self-caricatured by the present editorial staff of the Wall Street Journal, is as mad as Lady Macbeth. Under these circumstances, every crisis-spot in the world, inside the USA itself, in the Americas generally, in Africa, and in Eurasia generally, is the site of a local political firestorm either in flames, or about to erupt. It is not the tinder of the local hot-spot which causes this phenomenon; it is, rather, the heat of the global crisis of the financial system which seeks out, and tends to ignite all available tinder, such as the case of the sinking of the Kursk. In this state of affairs, those firestorms tend to come together, threatening an early global conflagration of awesome, but otherwise unpredictable, intensity, duration, and consequence." LaRouche's statement was issued several days {before} the Russian government, in "leaks" and official statements, confirmed that nuclear war had hung in the balance Aug. 12-13. Read the rest for yourselves at the above link. Peter Asher (8/27/2000; 0:56:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 35592) Trail Guide (8/26/2000; 22:25:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35589) >>>>> It represents a Western Style Opinion of where price should be IF they had the assets to complete the trade. <<<<<It really is that simple isn't it!As Keats said about truth and beauty "This is all there is to know and all you need know." ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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