 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/27/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
PH in LA
(11/27/00; 23:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 42334)
Farfel: Stretching for votes
"20,000-30,000 estimated voters who failed to cast a ballot?"
I thought we were talking about counting votes that were actually cast. If you want to start imagining as "votes" those that were never even cast, I can think of lots more.
By the way, are those 20,000 people even asking to have their votes counted?
Normally, if you don't vote, you don't expect to have your vote counted. If you do vote, you kind of expect your ballot to be counted. Trying to count votes that were never cast seems like quite a stretch. Even for you, Farfel.
Just the way I see it.
lamprey_65
(11/27/00; 23:34:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 42333)
Randy
Silver news you posted is VERY important! Silver buffs have been waiting for this day for a long, long time. I believe the approximate amount of U.S. Government silver stood at around 10 billion(!) ounces at the end of WWII...the last of that hoard is about to be sold to the public.
Although we don't know if or how much the Chinese are really selling, today's news means we very well could be about to scrape bottom of the barrel.
Buffet still own that 130 million ounces? No one seems to know.
Paul Soros is BIGTIME into silver (on the boards of Apex Silver Mines and TVX).
Fleckenstein and Gates also involved in the industry.
Rocket is going to lift off...only question is - when!?
Black Blade
(11/27/00; 23:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42332)
Dumb and Dumber
PH in LA: You mention that - "I do think that George Dubya is no more qualified to be president than he is to be dogcatcher. In short, he is totally unsuited to public office of any kind."
I did not know that there were any qualifications to hold the office of presidency. Even Jimmy Carter and Billy Clinton were mere governors before they took the oath of office. It is true that Jimmy was a complete failure and Billy will leave with a legacy of leachery. On the other hand, Al Gore is prone to "exaggerate" a lot. Is he qualified? He went to divinity school and flunked out. How do you flunk God? Don't get me wrong here, I think that both Al and George are a bad joke played on America, but then that's just me. From what I can determine, there are no standards or qualifications needed nor do I believe that there should be. Who ever takes the oath, there will plenty of material for the comedians over the next 4 years.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(11/27/00; 23:18:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 42331)
Interesting tidbit in the wider (non-gold) precious metals market
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/757554
HEADLINE: Last of nation's silver reserve to go to U.S. Mint for coinage
Reuters reports this evening that the U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center has committed its remaining 15 million ounces of silver hoard to the U.S. Mint, to be sent over the next weeks.
As this remaining quantity is used for the Mint's coinage program, the Mint will then have to fulfill its future silver needs with purchases on the open market.
Back to Gold
With the impending Thursday arrival of First Notice Day for delivery on the December COMEX gold contract, we are currently seeing a rotation out of these positions while the deal may yet be concluded as an all-paper operation. Today's trading day began with over 50,000 contracts in open interest, already firmly down from over 80,000 open positions seen in recent prior weeks. Meanwhile, we see the February contract taking up a fair bit of this position slack. The parade marches on, yet I smell rain in the air.
Farfel
(11/27/00; 23:17:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 42330)
@PH in LA, re: counting all votes...
PH said:
Yet all I have said, is that all the votes must be
counted.
I say:
Great, can we somehow count the estimated 20,000-30,000 Republican votes lost when the major media networks (known to hold pro-Democrat biases) declared Gore a victor an hour before the polls closed in the Florida panhandle? How do we gather the votes of those tens of thousands of Republicans who decided to go home rather than head to the polls, given their discouragement in learning their political favorite lost the State vote?
Unfortunately, your ad hominem prejudices against George W. Bush blind you from any pragmatic evaluation of the entire situation.
Thanks
F*
Black Blade
(11/27/00; 23:04:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 42329)
RE: Ben Franklin and nummus aureus
Interesting post. As I read about Ben Franklin describing the new government as a republic, I can only remember Dumb and Dumber mention the word "Democracy." The public schools have failed America when they teach that garbage to the youth of this country. We are not a democracy, and hope to never become a democracy. Democracy is nothing more than mob rule by the majority at the expense and to the detriment of the minority. The Libertarian description is quite good – "Democracy is 2 wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner." Some claim that the choice between Dumb and Dumber is a choice of the lessor of the two evils. Good God! Is that what we've come to – choosing between evil? Personally I think that the whole mess in Floriduh is hilarious. I find it somewhat amusing when the Reps and Dems beat up on each other. I have no love for any scumbag career politician. Let the games continue!
nummus aureus msg#: 42308):
Gold Bites...
Would anyone happen to know the content of dental gold? I just got offered "..about a pound.." of it, and was asked to make an offer.
Black Blade: I guess I could ask if the person willing to sell the gold has a German accent or is a mortician, but I will restrain myself. I hear advertisements on a Californian radio station that hypes business opportunities in dental and other scrap gold. I don't know anything about it, but it does raise some morbid questions.
Farfel
(11/27/00; 23:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42328)
@Cavan Man, I in complete agreement with your sentiments
What ideological partisans like PH in LA do not understand is that, in the end analysis, the result of the vote recount is, in itself, of no real importance. There can be no true winners, and the power-hungry Democrats have ensured that the America will be THE biggest loser.
Of course, I fully expect the Democrats to win the final vote count issue in higher courts (most of which they control), because they will do whatever is necessary to win. During the Clinton impeachment proceedings, Democrats proved that they have absolutely no moral scruples and no sense of duty toward serving the country ahead of their own self-serving party/power interests.
But the Democrat "win" will be a Pyhrric victory, and they will assume control of a nation that is at war with itself. The idea that Republicans will accept the Gore victory and joyfully rally around the new President is nothing but a most laughable pipe dream on the part of Pollyannas in the Democrat party. It can't happen, it won't happen.
Gore commands zero respect from Republicans today, and certainly earns their inveterate disdain. Unfortunately, once in power, he and his partner will likely become targets for recrimination in one form or another.
The major problem in allowing a courtroom to settle this issue (as opposed to having a great man step forward and relinquish power for a greater common good) is that laws can only be enforced by threat of force or punishment.
A court's decision to place Gore in the presidency will not change the minds of those who feel he does not deserve to be there. Those opponents will only accept the decision from fear of police action.
What this means is that America will need to transform itself into a police state in order to ensure that rebels and opponents of an "unacceptable" status quo do not arise to overthrow it.
Of course, maybe that is the intent of the Clintonites all along: create intolerable political conditions, then bring in the police and army to enforce a court resolution, thus facilitating a military state necessary to protect the felons and criminals who have seized control of the economy and markets of this nation for their own self-enrichment at the expense of various classes of harmed Americans, not to mention entire countries whose economies have been pillaged and raped by capitalist cronies of the current administration.
So, PH in LA, have your merry Democrat friends keep counting the votes ad infinitum, interpreting punctured holes as they see fit. They appear to be like little crying babies who are incapable of acting like honorable men and accept that, sometimes, life is not fair but nevertheless it is important to do the right thing.
Thanks
F*
gidsek
(11/27/00; 23:03:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 42327)
PH in LA
Mr. Gores' efforts to toss out overseas votes favoring Mr. Bush on the strength a missing or smudged postmark is well documented. His goal is clearly not "to have every vote counted" but win at any cost. Since he appears to regard the country and the lives of the people in it as some of giant train set that he yearns to play with it is fortunate for us all that he will soon have to call it a day.
gidsek
PH in LA
(11/27/00; 22:37:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 42326)
Disagreeing on Argeement...
C-Man:
Thank you for your post concerning my post. And thank you for your lip service to "open-minded discussion".
Just for the record: Why do you even refer to the "last eight years of Presidential office" in reaction to my post? I do not recall mentioning the last 8 years. I do not recall making any comment at all about the democratic party, either.
Yet you insist that somehow the democratic party was the subject of my remarks.
It was not!
I am simply appalled at the prospect of even one day (much less four years) with George Dubya as chief executive of this country. This does not mean that I endorse anything democratic. Only someone with a mind so completely closed that he admits only an "either/or" possibility could conclude that. This impression is reinforced when you say: "We are no longer collectively, "Americans"... we are an amalgam of special interest groups, nationalities, races, socio-economic classes and single issue voters etc."
Let me assure you of one thing: I am not just a member of a special interest group. Nor do I think of myself as a member of a nationality, race, or socio-economic class. Neither am I a single-issue voter.
I do think that George Dubya is no more qualified to be president than he is to be dogcatcher. In short, he is totally unsuited to public office of any kind. This should not make me a member of any socio-economic class, political party, etc except, perhaps, in your own mind. You, and those who think as you proclaim to do, are the ones viewing the world in black and white.. who see anyone who abhors Dubya's incompetence as "liberal" thinking... whatever that is in your mind.
You claim to be unable "to see even a smidge of (my) point of view". Yet all I have said, is that all the votes must be counted. If you disagree with that to the point that you "cannot even agree to disagree", I ask you: "Do you believe that all votes should NOT be counted?"
Is that what you think "Americans" believe?
"Don't count all the votes unless my candidate wins."
Talk about a "special interest" point of view. Anyone who thinks that all the votes should not be counted should not even try to count himself as an "American".
Because, as far as I know, Americans have never thought like that.
I don't see any reason that they should start thinking like that now just to get Dubya installed as president, an office he is completely unqualified to occupy.
lamprey_65
(11/27/00; 22:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42325)
POG
http://www.bookmarkusa.com/pog1.jpg
Nice move today. From a technical point of view, a sustained close above $280 is needed to really show this to be more than just a meager rally...need to break above that down trendline.
Check the link above and also note how the '96-'99 bear market in gold was broken last September. What we've seen since could be described as "backing and filling."
Lamprey
tedw
(11/27/00; 22:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42324)
gold Rally?
http://www.usagold.com
Gold re-tracing overseas. It doesntlook like much of a rally to me.
Cavan Man
(11/27/00; 21:28:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42323)
Mr. PH in LA
PH:
This is a forum for the ostensible purpose of "open" and open-minded discussion. I respect that; I really do. I came here to learn what others think and during the time of my sojourn, I have benefitted immensely.
I am not sorry to say that I do not appreciate your perspective on political matters and, BTW, I intend no malice in that remark. For the life of me, I cannot see even a smidge of your point of view. Please, this post is not directed at you personally but rather, those who stridently support the current version of the Democratic Party and all it currently stands for. I cannot understand how any clear thinking, rational, ethical and moral individual could cast a vote for Mr. Gore and most of the Democratic candidates for office. Further, I am completely baffled by so many people I know well and come in contact with who are of the opinion that the last eight years of Presidential office have been nothing less than spectacular and that, Mr. Clinton's personal problems aside, the opposition party has been, "out to get him". I cannot even agree to disagree.
I am sure the feeling is mutual.
Your string of posts on the matter of the election and this post of mine serve to illustrate my opinion regarding the deep divisions in this country roiling just below the surface of supposed civil discourse. We are a house divided. We are in profound disagreement. We are no longer collectively, "Americans"; we are an amalgam of special interest groups, nationalities, races, socio-economic classes and single issue voters etc. We are in deep doo doo.
I am very much looking forward to discussing the subject of gold with you again as we have here for many months. My best to you and to your family.....CM (Thank you for reading.)
Sierra Madre
(11/27/00; 21:27:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42322)
USAGOLD: Sorry, a correction to previous post!
To be precise, Franklin adopted the terms "positive" and "negative" for electricity.
Sierra Madre
(11/27/00; 21:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 42321)
@USAGOLD, re: B. Franklin
Franklin is a fascinating figure of world history.
He also invented the lightning rod. Of interest: he invented the idea of plus and minus for electric polarity, and the word "battery" for what we call a battery.
RAP
(11/27/00; 21:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 42320)
nummus aureus:dental gold price
http://www.kitco.com/market/buyprice.html
I know this is the competition, but they list a price for "dental gold" which might help.
PH in LA
(11/27/00; 21:02:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42319)
Counting & Recounting: Until we get it right... And not a moment before!
DaveC & White Hills:
What Goldilocks wrote ( Msg# 42289) indeed resonated like fresh air through chambers that have become fetid with partisan rhetoric and empty-headed repetition of deceptive platitudes. It certainly had little resemblance to a "Democrate (sic) tirade full of facts that aren't true", whatever those are, anyway. But I am especially intrigued by DaveC's concept (one that has actually been parroted at the highest levels of the Bush campaign) that "Bush has now won at least three vote counts in Florida". As Goldilocks so inteligently pointed out, a vote count, whether the first, the second, the third, fourth, etc that fails to count all the votes is not a vote count at all. Trying to assume the Presidency of the United States of America while at the same time filing complaints in court to suppress further counting of votes flies in the face of everything our constitutional system stands for. It also flies in the face of common sense. Anyone, including James Baker and/or our own DaveC and/or White Hills who thinks that one count is as good as any other, should try that line of thinking at their bank. "I added up (counted) the checks that make up my deposit three times and this is what I want credited to my account. Let's not let this dispute end up in court... How many times do I have to count it, anyway? Etc." The bank manager would merely reply: "Count it as many times as it takes to get it right!" And of course, ultimately a disagreement could only be resolved in court, where the judge would ask for the numbers and a calculator. The amount to be credited would depend on the numbers on the checks, not on the number of times it had been counted.
That's all we are saying here: How many people voted for each candidate? Not who is trying to steal the election. Suggesting that the numbers are unknowable in the information age, is absurd. This is not "new math". It is not "fuzzy math". It is just arithmetic. Most of us mastered that in grade school. Just what was George doing until he was 40, anyway?
DaveC also asks: "How was it that the Gore campaign flew 75 high-priced Washington DC lawyers down to Florida the day after the election?"
My understanding is that the Gore campaign, anticipating a close election, had people researching election laws in several states that were expected to be close, well before the election. This falls under the topic of preparation, not fraud or election theft. It is a skill that thoughtful citizens count on their leaders for. A lifetime of relying on Dad just doesn't prepare you for the real world, does it?
DaveC also seems bewildered and puzzled by the fact that "the White House knew there would be no president-elect identified BEFORE the certification was to happen?" But there is no mystery here at all. Anyone who understands our legal system of laws knows that everyone has the right to appeal to the courts. The judiciary is part of our system. Their role is to interpret the laws passed by the legislative branch, and carried out by the executive branch. This concept seemed incomprehensible even to the man who claims he has become the president-elect when, just a few days ago, he was complaining that the supreme court had usurped the role of the legislature. Just how dumb is too dumb, anyway? It is one thing for posters here at USAGold to need help understanding our constitutional system of law; but quite another and more frightening one for the man who thinks he has been certified as chief executive not to understand it.
The current White House, by knowing "there would be no president-elect identified BEFORE the certification was to happen" was just demonstrating what everyone with a grade-school understanding of American government knows: You don't have a president-elect until all the votes have been counted. Period.
It doesn't matter who certifies what.
It doesn't matter how long it takes.
The outcome of the election is not determined until ALL the votes have been counted! There are still questions about whether they have all been counted properly. These questions will be resolved by our system of law.
Until then, there is no president-elect.
rc
(11/27/00; 20:45:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 42318)
Gold specs
@Journeyman
I agree with you that, as of now, the specs are not involved. However there is a chronic shortage of gold from the mining industry and the CBs reserves will not last forever. At some point the gold price will have to move up just to meet the demand. This is where the specs will probably step in to push the price higher, until the herd instinct takes hold in the general public. At which time they will get out, take their profit and enjoy the ride. The herd will again lift the gold price to unreasonable levels until the inevitable crash. So I expect a slow increase at first, becoming exponential as more and more people want to profit from such a good oportunity. As usual. Just my 2 cents.
Have a good night!
Bonedaddy
(11/27/00; 20:22:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42317)
Just saw the Gore speech
Flags behind him.
Talking about saving the constitution.
Reminded me of a quote by Samuel Johnson:
"Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel"
rc
(11/27/00; 20:20:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 42316)
Good delivery gold
@RossL & Randy(@The Tower)
Thank you for that information. I will have to redefine what I think what the CBs mean by scrap. As a poster of another forum put it : a big chunk of CBs gold reserves consists of worn old gold coins. Especially in America. Probably a good part of what they call scrap must come from the melting of such coins. You know, scrap was not even mentioned as a gold supply 10 or 20 years ago.
Have a good night!
Journeyman
(11/27/00; 19:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42315)
Franklin's aberration: ADDENDUM @USAGOLD, ALL
I just read my previous post. It needs a wee bit of explanation to make sense: The gold EXCHANGE standard Mises refers to is the situation from 1913 thru 1933 when paper dollars were supposedly exchangeable for gold, but the Federal Reserve in cahoots with the US Treasury were busy printing-up (counterfeiting) many more "REDEEMABLE IN GOLD ON DEMAND" paper dollars than they actually had gold for. So they couldn't redeem these counterfeit dollars for gold, which is why Roosevelt stole as much of the rest of our ancestors' gold as they were foolish enough to turn in.
Regards,
Journeyman
Tree of Life
(11/27/00; 19:41:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 42314)
To Flatlander from a Foreign Investor
Here is one foreign investor's view. I used to hold 100% of my assets in USD or USD equivalent. It is now down to 36% and will be reduced further to around 10%.
The US was indeed the custodian of the high temple but like the Babylonians, they bridged their fiduciary duty of trusts. Sadly, everyone has to discreetly exchange their USD trust receipts into something more valuable without alert other holders to cause a bank run, which I believe will happen in the next two years.
A lot of resources has been sucked into Southern California to give starry eyes kids a status that could only happened in the movies. When finally somebody screams "house on fire", guess how many in the cinema will stay behind to watch the ending. No, not even the film director expect this ending cause he is too focus to play out the act.
Journeyman
(11/27/00; 19:33:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42313)
Franklin's aberration @USAGOLD, ALL
Hi USAGOLD!
Re: Franklin favoring fiat -- lot's of otherwise intelligent folks have been taken in by fiat's siren song -- Mises was one, for example:
"*In dealing with problems of the gold exchange standard
all economists--including the author of this book--failed to
realize the fact that it [the gold _exchange_ standard -j.]
places in the hands of governments the power to manipulate
their nations' currency easily*. Economists blithely assumed
that no government of a civilized nation would use the gold
exchange standard intentionally as an instrument of
inflationary policy." -Ludwig von Mises, Human Action A
Treatise on Economics, Third Revised Edition (Chicago,
Illinois: Contemporary Books, Inc. 1966), pg. 786 [XXXI.
CURRENCY AND CREDIT MANIPULATION 3. The Evolution of Modern
Methods of Currency Manipulation available also from
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp]
Also David Ricardo and THE Adam Smith:
"It was this idea that led Adam Smith and Ricardo to the
opinion that it was very beneficial to reduce the cost of
producing money by resorting to the use of paper printed
currency. However, things appear in a different light to the
students of monetary history. If one looks at the
catastrophic consequences of the great paper money
inflations, one must admit that the expensiveness of gold
production is the minor evil." -Mises, Ibid., pg. 422 [XVII.
INDIRECT EXCHANGE 6. Cash-Induced and Goods-Induced Changes
in Purchasing Power]
Looks like we may be about to re-learn the reasons why fiat is a REALLY bad idea??
Regards,
Journeyman
schippi
(11/27/00; 18:52:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42312)
Gold Charts
http://www.SelectSectors.com/pog.gif
Above chart is 5 day POG forecast.
Select Gold Hourly:
http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif
Cavan Man
(11/27/00; 18:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 42311)
USAGOLD
I believe Dr. franklin was also a real ladies man or, was that Curly Joe? I always get the two confused.
RossL
(11/27/00; 17:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 42310)
nummus aureus
http://www.gold.org/Ginfos/Gi8ind.htm
I just browsed the site for The World Gold Council. Their website has a dental page. It looks like there are no standards for dental gold.
Flatlander
(11/27/00; 17:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 42309)
First Post
Hello everyone! After lurking for most of the life of this site, I have decided to join you in a more active role.
I am a retired business man who sold his manufacturing business several years ago and went home to the flatlands of Kansas. (Yes someone does live in Kansas!)
I have followed closely the writings of Another and FOA and think that they have a good handle on what will happen or is happening today. When I first ran across their statements I wondered if they realized the impediments that would be placed on their path by the Powers That Be. It has been a rocky road.
At this time, it is my feeling that we are on the cusp of great change in the world economic arena. Much of what we have all read and written about is now upon us. The stock market is in retreat, the credit markets are begining to reel, and now the dollar is starting its' decline.
The current phrase is "Perfect Storm" for this around the internet. It may well be just that.
The final straw that drug me out of hiding is the debacle in Florida. As we watch our politicos roll in the gutter for just one more recount, I think of how that is viewed by the foreign investor. He has invested in what he thought was a country that held itself above others in such things and now he finds we are no better than what he has in his own politicos. Will he now retain enough faith in the American way to keep his money invested here? I doubt it!
We watch together!
nummus aureus
(11/27/00; 17:41:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 42308)
Gold Bites...
Would anyone happen to know the content of dental gold? I just got offered "..about a pound.." of it, and was asked to make an offer.
USAGOLD
(11/27/00; 17:39:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 42307)
Cavan Man. . .on Dr. Ben Franklin
The new Franklin biography which sells under the appropriate title, "The First American," is one of those warts and all offerings that one plows through to see just what the man might have been thinking as his very interesting life progressed. I am at the part where he invents the Franklin stove (at 40 years old) as a practical means to combat the infamous Pennsylvania/New York/New England fearsome winters. One cord of wood and a Franklin stove would get you through the winter, Franklin boasted. Efficiency. A driving force for Franklin. Practicality -- efficiency's close cousin also drove the man's thinking. Not just the First American, I have often thought that Franklin, not Washington, was the real Father of this country -- though Washington too was a man to be greatly respected.
Franklin never made the kind of money he should of on the stove (which became a mainstay in the Colonies) because he believed great inventions were the commonweal of mankind. Therefore, he never pursued the proper patents to fully benefit. Besides being a printer, Franklin was an inventor. I did not know this but he basically invented the fire department. He also invented the militia because he believed that the rich merchants were not all that interested in protecting Philadelphia against the French -- not like the store owners and tradesmen were. Franklin considered himself a tradesman. The Europeans, particularly the French, believed that Franklin invented the concept of the Republic.
The other day I heard a man talking on one of the talk shows about why it is that the United States is still on its First Republic, while France is on its Fifth, Germany on its Fifth as well, etc. (The turmoil of historical Europe rolls through the mind like an old movie.) It is because of the remnants of the Republic still alive in our system of government. This is the importance of the Electoral College, he said. The framers in their infinite wisdom knew that a popular vote and popular vote alone would end up repeatedly in the type of turmoil we have seen in year 2000 and endless Republics as one after another government collapsed under the pressure of the "majority." No, the electoral college is there for a reason. How would Franklin have reacted to the turmoil surrounding Florida? I have thought as I suppose many Americans have in the past few days of his famous dictum delivered outside Independence Hall, the day the U.S. Constitution was signed. He was asked, "Well, Dr. Franklin, what kind of a government have you given us?" "A Republic," he answered, "if you can keep it." Who knows for sure how Franklin would have reacted to what we have seen in the past few days and there's little doubt (I am learning) that a young Franklin would have reacted differently than the older (Constitutional framer) Franklin. I think he would said let the Constitution be your guide -- that's why we gave it to you. And by that, I don't mean the expedient, self-serving interpretation of it, but the spirit of it.
By the way, the young Franklin believed in fiat money. Why? In my view because he had one of the printing contracts for it. Franklin, one could argue, also invented modern salesmanship. But that's another story.
Take care, my good friend. I will report back on how Franklin thought of money as a constitutional framer.
RossL
(11/27/00; 17:12:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42306)
rc, London Good Delivery specs
http://www.gold.org/Inve/Bars/Categ.htm
The World Gold Council has some specifications on gold bars at the link.
Pandagold
(11/27/00; 16:41:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42305)
How will it end?
How will it all end? From what I have been reading within these pages making due allowance for the side tracking that takes place as certain events unfold, this is perhaps the one question that we would all like to know. Or, to put it another way, when, and how will we be able to see our devotion and long suffering to the cause pay off?
The people, who could really tell you, will not, ever. But, by burying our emotions, stepping back from the canvas and taking a deep breath, and relaxing our mental muscles, we could see a picture forming that would present some clues.
One has first to try to understand, and respect, the awesome power out there that has been stage-managing the agenda so far. Among their many attributes, these people are master illusionists that put Uri Geller, David Copperfield and the like into the shade of being less than amateurs. They could not only make the Statue of Liberty disappear -'before your very eyes'; they could make New York City disappear (literally) if it were necessary.
I said 'try to understand' because to fully comprehend and put it into countable terms would be an impossibility - like (truthfully) comprehending there are more stars in the universe than grains of sand upon earth. It is easier said, than done.
Our problem is, we have never been educated to 'think big'. Oh, agreed, some people think bigger than others, but that is not big enough. I have read the 'Magic of Thinking Big' till the print wore off, but my thinking is still relatively small.
The point I am making is that when gold moves, it will be because it is in the interests of those controlling it for it to do so, and not a day before. I am talking about a significant move here.
When is that likely to be? When the Euro has strengthened sufficiently to relieve the pressure on the dollar. Notice I said strengthened not necessarily increased much in value.
Gold has suffered, and survived just about every conceivable negative for decades. Mines have closed and/or cut back production. The survivors are becoming leaner and meaner. They have reduced, and are continually reducing, their operating costs; and they are slowly consolidating to make themselves fewer, but larger operations that can attract serious investment. The rock solid base is being formed.
When the gold price starts to rise, they (the mines) will be highly profitable. But there are many 'investors' locked into their shares waiting to get out. So there will be quite a bit of volatility going on in the early stages. However, we who have kept ourselves involved know that the overall trend, once started, will be up - slow, but UP!.
At the same time, the international 'investing' community is growing. The Chinese - more than four times the population of the USA will be able to trade gold and shares world wide on the internet. The whole of Asia is becoming (slowly but surely) more affluent daily. It will not be suckered again so easily by America's do as I do philosophy, with its economies and currencies.
Even the Eastern European countries have come in from the cold and are learning fast. The Czech Skoda, once the butt of many jokes, now has a top rating. Internet access is growing. Wealth is seeping through into their long impoverished communities. They have learned to survive, and live within tight budgets. Many will be joining the band of international traders and investors.
There is going to be great opportunity for building a portfolio that will pay excellent dividends, with capital growth, or, if you prefer, some great trading in the volatility (remembering the trend is UP).
So there are good things on the horizon for those with patience and who have used this time of stagnation and doubt to understand the gold market, the potential ‘movers’ and how the game is played. Just don't look for a scenario that causes gold to shoot up overnight and hit the stratosphere, dragging the mining shares with it.
It could well reach $1000 an ounce, or more, one day. But there will much struggle on the way up. Not because it couldn't shoot up overnight, but because it is extremely unlikely it would ever be in 'their' interests for it to do so.
I'm with you guys all the way. I'm in for the long haul, and looking to some happy trading on the way up. I feel early stirrings - very early.
Cavan Man
(11/27/00; 16:40:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42304)
Randy (@the tower)
It's about time! :>)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(11/27/00; 16:15:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42303)
Sold out Swissies
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
I have just now concluded a pleasant phone call with Michael who informed me (among many other things) that despite a last-minute location of an additional cache of these popular Swiss Confederation 20 franc gold coins to supplement the original offer, this special offer is now sold out. Congratulations to all of you who acted fast enough to add some of these pleasant coins to your growing portfolios of hard assets.
I look forward to working with MK to bring you the next interesting gold coin under the auspices of Centennial Precious Metals. In the meantime, visit the link above to see a sampling of bullion and gold coins that are generally available for immediate delivery to your door.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(11/27/00; 15:33:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42302)
rc, you may rest assured with the highest confidence
I have it on best authority that the standards for London Good Delivery gold allow for a minimum fineness of 995 parts per thousand from a strict list of acceptable refiners.
I hope this information is helpful to you. With a major project now behind, I look forward to reviewing the past week(plus) of forum dialogue to see what gold-related issues are unfolding in the minds of you fine gentlemen (and ladies).
wolavka
(11/27/00; 15:21:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42301)
jbear
One day does not set trend but the force of selling in todays trade shows in the range. Tomorrows confirmation with major sell off would set stage for golds move back to 300 + area.
justamereBear
(11/27/00; 15:12:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42300)
(No Subject)
wolavka
I did not see much, if any, evidence of intervention in the USD today, did you? Could it be that recent Florida announcements have something to do with this? Of course the unprincipled must get rid of all smoking guns, but to pull down the whole house around oneself, just for political points takes the world to a NEW?? level.
j'bear
miner49er
(11/27/00; 14:45:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42299)
rc, Journeyman, j'Bear... good points all!
thanks,
miner49er
Goldentrill
(11/27/00; 14:39:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 42298)
Gush and Bore
RESPONSE TO: Goldilocks (11/27/2000; 11:56:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42289)
Goldilocks I have to disagree with you all the way down the line on this one. First of all, Gore's "belief" that he has more votes, is simply that: "a belief". If his claim to more votes as a consequence of loading the popular votees with illegal aliens, discounting military votes, harvesting votes in midstream by changing the rules of law, creating stalling tactics in the courts of the land to paralyze and hold hostage the electoral process, monopolizing the media of the land with disengenious propaganda that he had won the election before actually getting the votes to do so, before polls were closed in the northern part of Florida and in other parts of the country, whereby changing votes that had not been cast yet, politicizing the voting process from an accuarte recount to a discombolbulated mess wherein there were NO CONSISTANT standards by which to determine which votes could be rightfully considered from the undercount and by fragrantly insisting to get inside peoples minds by "discerning voter intentions"..in other words, where folks choose NOT to vote for either Gush or Bore, decided to "ordain" votes for Mr. Gore by "assuming" that people really wanted to chose Mr. Bore....and on and on and on and on. Mr. Gush is definitely the lesser of the two evils! (and decidedly much better for GOLD).....to boot.
Goldentrill!
rc
(11/27/00; 14:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42297)
Korean reprise
@Miner49er
Mr. Journeyman already answered to this much better than I could do myself.
The trick you mention has been tried in India and it brought back less than 100 tons. It didn't work.
Brazil use to buy all the gold from her small gold producers and although I am not sure, I think they were paying above the spot price.
As to the possibility to starve these people as a way to get at their jewellery, it won't work either. For them jewellery is not an investment. It is much deeper than that. It is something they want to hand down to their daughters. Moreover they don't need the money to feed themselves. They are mostly small farmers, living from their land, and able to withstand a lot of adverse situations. They will always be able to scrape a living. IMHO they will starve to death rather than sell their ware.
I don't see why India or China should try to gather their citizens gold with brute force. This is the kind of behaviour that feed revolutions. And remember Malaysia showed them how to get rid of the IMF and the World Bank. That lesson is not going to be lost.
After all, as far as I can remember, the USA is the only nation that coerced her citizen to surrender their gold. It worked at that time, but believe me, it is not going to work anymore.
Have a good afternoon!
White Hills
(11/27/00; 13:45:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 42296)
Goldilocks Msg# 42289
This forum is primarily used to discuss Gold and other financial matters that interest the forum members. MK is very tolerent of off subject posts but I resent your Democrate tirade full of facts that aren't true. As for truth it is clear you having trouble recognizing it are telling it. White Hills
wolavka
(11/27/00; 13:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 42295)
long over due
run of 300 tics to downside on gap open under 11650 would make my day tomorrow> march index.
rc
(11/27/00; 13:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 42294)
Good delivery gold
@Randy(@The Tower)
Well! Are you sure of what you assert? The informations I have said good delivery gold to be .9999 and pointed out that that was the reason why many 400oz bars were to be melted down. I also know that 400oz bars are quite often taken as is. Unfortunately I don't remember where I got that information. I read so many things that I can't keep track of where I get something. Just remember what I read. With what you say, I am not so sure anymore. For now I will put a question mark on it and wait for more information.
Have a good afternoon!
justamereBear
(11/27/2000; 12:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42293)
All particularly Gerald 42007
I have just been looking at some old posts, and I think it is time to change my handle to The Origional Cynic.
And all this time I thought I was being mild, because I see myself as being much more pessimistic than what I have posted.
j'Bear
Randy (@ The Tower)
(11/27/2000; 12:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42292)
Nasdaq Composite woes: intraday numbers can tell a better story
While the change from the previous close is the oft-cited benchmark for measuring performance, viewing that alone would reveal the Nasdaq to be down 15 points from Friday, and seemingly indicative of a boring session.
However, after an initial opening spurt to 3,000, the Nasdaq has steadily shed 110 points in the course of the day's trade, giving a better indication that instability still rules the day.
How much of your personal wealth has been committed into a representation of others' abilities to manage a corporation? How much is in tangible hard assets? Whether or not you can sleep well at night makes for a good litmus test on the prudence of the proportions you have committed to various financial assets.
Remember, it is not in Wall Street's personal interest to steer you toward non-stock alternatives. You have to chart that path on your own intiative, and overcome the media blitz to the contrary. Trust your instincts and judgement, not blind obedience to Madison Avenue.
wolavka
(11/27/2000; 12:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42291)
dec gold
see if we can run the close up to 272
wolavka
(11/27/2000; 12:08:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42290)
rats are jumping
short covering funds coming in
Goldilocks
(11/27/2000; 11:56:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42289)
Approval of PH in LA's last night post
@ PH in LA - I tried to post this last night but my password didn't work. Hopefully it will now....Well said. There are votes in Florida that have not even been looked at yet, and enough to swing the election have been counted but not accepted by Harris just becasue they were a few hours late. All Bush's whining to try to stop the recounting certainly shows that he knows perfectly well that the Gore votes are there if they can take the time to actually count all votes - more yet if the hundreds of people were counted who were fooled by the butterfly ballot and the hundreds who were sent away from the polls despite bringing voter registration cards and waiting for hours on line etc. It's clear to anyone who takes a good look at the situation that Gore is right when he says he believes that more people there in FL (and of course in the rest of the USA as well) went to the polls intending to vote for him and trying to vote for him and thinking they had voted for him or distraught to have figured out they didn't vote for him as intended. What a mess. I'e been most impresseed at how well and how maturely and thoughtfully Gore has dealt with the situation, in contrast to the spoiled brat attitude and fake sincerity of Bush who mostly looks disappointed that Daddy didn't manage to procure him the presidency as promised. Lets have Bush get out of the way and find out the truth.
miner49er
(11/27/2000; 11:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42288)
Journeyman - Korea, etc...
Well, if you can't get them to give it with a salute, maybe just the mundane pressure of things like hunger and paying the bills will do it...
btw, anyone notice short term au lease rates are actually green today as well?
thx, Journeyman...
wolavka
(11/27/2000; 11:43:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 42287)
Justamere bear
look back @ the march index this is out 4 months, , they tried to run it back to 11850 failed, now we head down no reason for dollar to remain strong, blow thru 115 then 114 and history
Journeyman
(11/27/2000; 11:35:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 42286)
Miner49er
Korean reprise? @Miner49er, ALL
Hi Mr. Miner!
I taped some of that Korean "give gold to save the country" thing, and, FWIW, I'm convinced it was a spur-of-the-moment thing which was started by one bank and then just caught on.
Can TPTB "leave it in" as they say in the theatre and repeat in other countries? Maybe, but the Koreans are a very patriotic, monolithic culture. They've been under unique pressures to mould them into this monolithic mode.
My guess is this was one of a kind and simply wouldn't work in most other countries.
Regards,
Journeyman
justamereBear
(11/27/2000; 11:27:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42285)
Wolavka
You are right, the USD is the key. I find the market action strange. It seems the PPT are not intervening as yet, but we will see what happens in the last hour and if (& why) the USD index comes back from its -1.43 currently.
Regards
j'Bear
miner49er
(11/27/2000; 11:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42284)
justamereBear - or...
What if TPTB, while doing everything else they do, are keeping an eye out for the possibility of a further ramping of U.S. strong-dollar-policy, the fruits of which may do the Asian (and other) economies' destruction for them?
justamereBear
(11/27/2000; 11:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42283)
Miner49er 42279
I suspect that such an attempt might be made, but I see them (TPTB) as coming at it in a slightly different direction. I think that they are to busy fighting fires to make such a long term plan, but once sufficient time has passed, someone is sure to think, well it worked before, maybe we can do it again. I think you give them to much credit for intelligence and foresight.
Regards
j'Bear
Randy (@ The Tower)
(11/27/2000; 11:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42282)
rc, a comment for the record
I saw your recent post in which you state in a concluding remark:
"...many 400 oz bar are not good delivery. They are .9995 and at time .995 ... most have to be melted down to meet the requirements of good delivery, which is .9999"
Please know, specifically with regard to fineness, the standard for good delivery bars requires a minimum fineness of only 995 parts per thousand for acceptability.
beesting
(11/27/2000; 11:11:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 42281)
$270.00 Per Ounce Gold Breached at 11:02MT...on the Road to $1000.00 per ounce!
http://www.quoteline.com/irtmecoe.asp
Anybody else notice a little different action in the POG today?
I think this message by USAGOLD 11/26/00 21:41MT # 42228, says it all!
[Snip]
<<I go back to the recent statements out of N. M. Rothschild about the central banks curtailing leasing.Their public pronouncement is very important and serves as warning to the bullion banks and hedge funds with their tail-ends still hanging over the canoe. I'm sure it is not being taken lightly. The fact that Rothschild came forward with this at this time to me is extremely significant. Rothschild remains
THE MAJOR PLAYER in the gold market. Their statements could be telling us that they have taken their losses in the carry trade and are now ready to stand aside. First "in" the carry trade; and now first "out.">>[Unsnip]
The very secretive Rothschilds have spoken publicly,for the first time in my memory....We Watch Together...beesting.
justamereBear
(11/27/2000; 11:10:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42280)
Journeyman 42274
Hear! Hear!
Best Regards
j'Bear
miner49er
(11/27/2000; 10:56:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42279)
rc, Journeyman -- making up the shortfall...
What if TPTB engineered a destruction of the Asian economies, and forced all the mom and pop gold holders to either redeem their gold to their governments in some semi-voluntary "patriotic" gesture, or use their gold for one of the very reasons they purchased it in the first place: to stay alive in a crisis?
The big guys, who are currently scraping around for a ton here and there, could probably come up with at least multiple double-digits tonnage with such activity. Not a bad return for the risk -- indeed, even if they flush the whole world down the toilet, they still sit on the seat.
When you mention that S. Korea was a one time event, I wonder if they think this is something they (TPTB) can pull off a couple more times, i.e., let Asia seem to recover, at least long enough that people buy up physical again, as they are very prone to do, and then crush them to get it back.
If I'm not mistaken, India buys nearly 400 tons of the stuff each year, much by little guys, and much very liquid, properly assayed jewellery.
If indeed they are at all desperate to keep coming up with physical, it would not surprise me to see this kind of behavior.
Anyone have any thoughts about this? Or am I missing something?
Goldilocks
(11/27/2000; 10:42:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42278)
1-2-3...
admin test
RossL
(11/27/2000; 10:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 42277)
Interesting editorials for today
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/sennholz112700.html
An editorial on the deficits, the gold standard, and fiat money by Dr. Hans Sennholz.
RossL
(11/27/2000; 10:31:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42276)
Interesting editorials for today
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hein112700.html
An editorial on governments and fiat money by Dr. Paul Hein.
Flatlander
(11/27/2000; 10:27:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 42275)
test
admin test
Journeyman
(11/27/2000; 9:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 42274)
No disagreement here! @rc
Hi again again rc!
You've done a lot of good thinking about this, and many posters here generally agree with most of what you say. Including me.
The paper trick can only work for so long, although it's more sophisticated than in the past, and as you say, paper isn't enough; it takes physical too.
It's my contention that at base, it's a psychological game they're playing. As long as TPTB (The Powers That Be) can convince speculators -- the big guns, that TPTB won't allow the price to rise come market-meltdown, unrest in the Middle East, Iraq switching to euro pricing, not to mention financial melt-down in Asia, Russia, Brazil, Ecuador, etc., then the specs won't drop big money into physical.
This type of bluff is a basic standard "games theory" move. But we know it's all a bluff, and at some point things must break. And the specs watch too -- that's their bread and butter. So TPTB are forced to be better, more refined, in their moves to stretch things out as long as possible by convincing everyone they're going to play the hand to the end. This requires throwing more and more gold in the pot.
Some posters are watching the open interest situation on Comex, LBMA etc. for signs the paper game is waining.
To see various takes on this scenario (the one you nailed) FOA's writings in the (Gold Trail) link above is probably the most coherent. You can also check the archives for some of ORO's posts, but the archives are incredibly voluminous, so you might think twice about that.
But observations here may well bring out the thinking of other posters.
Welcome, by the way!!
High regards,
Journeyman
P.S. ISI Group's Ed Hyman predicts a world-wide recession, an economic perfect storm. Markets are the key. If they go up it'll stop the storm, if they go down, that will percipitate the "perfect economic storm." The last three times FED eased, the market went down. What are the odds of a recession in this country? Economy is growing at about 2% now, 3% is recession. Odds of recession in US are about 40%. Stocks are off around the world. We'll have to wait till we see if the FED eases in the spring, then we'll take another look at things. -Ed Hyman, ISI Group, CNBC, Nov. 27, 2000, ~11:40AM
Cavan Man
(11/27/2000; 9:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42273)
Jean-Claude Trichet
Is a "strong Euro" policy in the making? Is a page being taken from; no, couldn't be. See Bloomberg site.
rc
(11/27/2000; 9:31:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 42272)
Facts and fictions
@Pandagold
Your last " What do they want me to believe today and why that they want me to believe it " hits the nail on the head. Unfortunately, most people are not aware of that and I suspect they just don't care. Too tiring. And scary. Problem is that, when enough of them start to realize what is going on, they turn nasty and maybe downright dangerous.
Have a good day!
rc
(11/27/00; 09:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 42271)
Gold and derivatives
@Journeyman
Morning Sir,
I don't know what you mean by " we are not in Kansas anynore". I am not American and never been in Kansas. Possibly drove accross once or twice.
Anyway my point is, that if one believes that derivatives are able to lower the gold price, than there is no reason for gold to go up. TPTB can keep the saga going on forever. Which they will because they are dead set again any increase of the gold value. Once that happens the party is over. No more financing with paper out of nothing. They will have to come up with the real thing. Go figure.
For my part, right or wrong, I maintain that it is not possible to control the gold price only with paper. It takes physical. Due to the thinness of the market ( 4,000 tons ), it doesn't take much. Just a few tons per day. Still the CBs have to get it out of their vaults. At some point they will have to decide whether to keep up dishoarding to save part of their reserves or stop to it altogether because they have run out of the metal. At wich time, IMHO fasten your seat belt.
I use to read, ad nauseam, that the CBs still have up to 35,000 tons in their vaults. Just lately, I got what was supposed to be a complete list of the world CBs reserves. For the fun of it, I added up all the ±150 figures and I ended up with just about 29,000 tons, a part of which I knew was already sold.
Since 1988 the CBs are dishoarding because this was the beginning of the gold deficit between supply and demand. At that time it was only a few hundred tons. Twelve years later the situation have worsened. So much so that it takes know 1,500 tons on top of the world mining supply to keep up with the demand. At an average of 1,000 ton per year there must have been 12,000 tons of gold dumped onto the market on top of the mining supplies.
There are people to believe that all that gold comes from old jewellery, old coins or whatever. For what regard the jewellery, forget it. At best it represent maybe 50 tons and I suspect that most of these transactions are not even reported. Yes. I know. South Korea gathered about 240 tons from her population. But this is a one time phenomenon and to my knowledge, it has been melted but not sold. Some gold may have come out of Indonesia or Thailand but the informations about that are at best sketchy and unreliable.
Now old coins. Yes. But they come from the CBs who have to get them melted as to turn them into good delivery. For what I know, even many 400 oz bar are not good delivery. They are .9995 and at time .995. And while some are sold as such, no question asked, most have to be melted down to meet the requirements of good delivery, which is .9999.
This said, I will be glad to hear your arguments against all of the above.
Have a good day!
Pandagold
(11/27/00; 08:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42270)
When the dust settles
Incorporated in the rules governing the art of success is that of turning negatives into positives. Didn't Britain do it at Dunkirk?.
You will find when the dust settles, the dollar will have survived and gold will continue to be discredited.
Reason?. All these 'shenanigans' in the electoral process occasioning all this rhetoric about America in crisis plus doomsday scenarios (though, in the real world, they have strong substance) will appear just hot air, because there WILL be a fall-guy, er sorry, a president (who will do as he's told by the non-elected government who really run the country), and life will go on.
The media will swing into action telling the world that what they have witnessed is true democracy in action and merely illustrates 'the strength of our nation' -politically, economically, and, just in case anyone doubts it, beware, - militarily.
The US will look around for some small, new or old, adversary, to swipe across the snout with the remark -'that's for nothing. but just in case you ARE up to something', and to let that unfortunate (and everyone else) know 'who's in charge, and that it's business as usual.
Yes, life will go on
You see, we no longer live in a real world - this is the age of 'virtual reality'. Well, it is for the foreseeable future, at least.
Galearis
(11/27/00; 08:31:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42269)
@ all
Paper gold AND silver are
doing something interesting this am!
wolavka
(11/27/00; 08:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42268)
gold
FAST MARKET LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Pete
(11/27/00; 08:24:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42267)
PH in LA
http://www.etherzone.com/blum112800.html
HOW DIVIDED ARE WE? ANSWERS THAT MAY SURPRISE YOU By: Samuel L. Blumenfeld
PH, I know I'm probably blowing smoke out of my butt trying to convince you that the above article tells more than many realize, but try I must as our nation, economy and moral values, IMHO, are at risk if Gore prevails.
That being said, I'm not that enamored with Bush either. I just believe he's the lessor of two evils. If you have the time to read, I would appreciate your comments.
I miss ANOTHER and FOA's thoughts and wish they would come back to this illustrious forum.
Best regards,
Pete
Silverback
(11/27/00; 08:20:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 42266)
Looking for 271
Take out 271 today, and I do believe we're on our way to at least a nice short term spike. FND coming up quick for December, who blinks first? Speaking of spikes, no luck up here in the northwoods hunting the wily whitetail. Got some meat, but the 'turty point buck is still out there. Just another politically incorrect hobby of mine.
wolavka
(11/27/00; 08:00:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42265)
HAMMER THE DOLLAR
drive the sucker to zero where it belongs!!!!!!!!!!1
Silverback
(11/27/00; 07:44:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 42264)
GO,GO
GOPHER!
wolavka
(11/27/00; 07:26:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 42263)
major trend line
here in dec if she breaks she's gonna move
wolavka
(11/27/00; 07:22:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42262)
need some fund buying here
Wake up Hanseatic
wolavka
(11/27/00; 06:10:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 42261)
beans
up 17 cents in overnite, Ha ha ha ha
Black Blade
(11/27/00; 06:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 42260)
Wild Ride on the Street Today?
The markets must like the news that a winner has been declared between Dumb and Dumber. The S&P Futures are up solidly at +13.00 indicating a good boost at the NY open. However, Dumber is scheduled to speak at noon. This could put the skids on the market. We shall see. The Precious Metals are bouncing about in a narrow range prior to the open. Currently, Au is up only 25 cents.
Off to watch a Golden Sunrise and massacre some Ducks and Geese, see ya all later.
Black Blade
(11/27/00; 05:59:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42259)
Petroleum Briefs!
Sources: BridgeNews, Gulf News (Reuters), and The Times
"Oman says GCC rules out oil output hike now"
Omani oil minister says GCC rules out immediate oil output hike Muscat--Nov. 25--Omani Oil Minister Mohammad al-Romhi said the sultanate and other oil-rich Gulf states had ruled out an immediate hike in oil output despite crude prices hovering around 10-year highs. The GCC--which groups Oman with Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates--sits on around 45% of the world's oil reserves."
"Opec will defend crude price against slide, says Kuwait" 'Kuwait | Reuters | 25-11-00 |
Kuwait Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser Al Sabah said yesterday Opec would not allow oil prices to slip again to 1998 levels, adding that world prices dropping to even $22 a barrel was an unrealistic dream. "Anyone who believes that we will return to the low price in the $20s (a barrel) or $22 a barrel I think is dreaming, it is not realistic," the minister said in a live two-hour debate on Kuwait state television. "We will not allow in any form or shape world oil markets to collapse again like in 1998 (when prices fell below $10 a barrel). It was a disaster," added the minister who is often seen as a price hawk. IPE Brent crude oil for January closed in London at $33.12 yesterday, compared with $33.52 a barrel on Thursday. Kuwaiti crudes are currently selling for around $28 a barrel compared with a forecast $13 a barrel used to calculate the small country's budget in the fiscal period to end-March. Sheikh Saud said Kuwaiti crudes selling at $23-$24 a barrel would allow the small country to balance its budget after large deficits when the price fell to $7 a barrel in the 1998-99 fiscal year. It averaged almost $23 a barrel in the fiscal year to end-June 2000, compared with a projected $10 a barrel. Opec member Kuwait was granted an additional quota of 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) as part of an overall end-October increase. Its quota now stands at 2.141 million bpd but is considered to be producing almost at capacity with an output of around 2.2 million bpd. When asked about "the fair price" for a barrel and the recent surge in world prices, Sheikh Saud said: "To be honest, crude (prices) has exceeded our expectations...The answer is simple: supply and demand are now balanced and the the current price level, in my view, is the real price...Let us leave this issue to the modality of the market and supply and demand," he said. "There is an Opec accord to cut production, abide by it and monitor it" if world prices fell, added the minister. Sheikh Saud stressed that Opec has "regained its power. It is now dictating to the world the oil price," adding that Gulf states, with 64 per cent of the world's proven oil reserves, are the key exporters of the future. He said current world demand of 76 million bpd would jump to 90 million bpd and 103 million bpd by the years 2010 and 2020 respectively, while some Opec members are expected to stop exporting oil within 10 to 15 years. "The five sisters in the Gulf - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran - will become the main crude exporters to the industrialised world," he added."
Black Blade: This OPEC insider should know. Forget about cheap oil. Hear that freight train in the distance? That's inflation bearing down on us.
"Fuel of promise" by TONY DAWE.
Computer-based projects won prizes for consultants in this year's awards as well as striking structures. An analysis which could benefit all of us led to Bechtel Consulting, now part of Nexant, being named Small Consultancy Firm of the Year for organisational or invisible projects. The company had been signed up by the European Commission's energy directorate to study the potential costs of introducing a variety of cleaner fuels for cars, buses and lorries. The study is part of a programme to improve air quality in Europe by 2005. Among the many fuels investigated were compressed natural gas (CNG), liquified petroleum gas (LPG), dimethyl ether (DME) and various blends with gasoline or diesel. One of the main difficulties in evaluating their potential to improve air quality was the different level of technology and experience in the use of these fuels. For some, such as CNG and LPG, there are significant numbers of cars and buses already on the market, either as bi-fuel conversions or using single-fuel dedicated engines. For others like DME, however, only prototype engines or vehicles have been built. The challenges facing the Bechtel/Nexant team included reducing particulates emitted by the fuels to 50 parts per million from several hundred and balancing the conflicting interests of governments, motor manufacturers and lobby groups. The company says that the results will help the EC and Europe's oil refining industry identify the package that will deliver improved air quality most cost-effectively and may provide a basis for future legislation...'
Black Blade: And ever more pressure on Natural Gas supplies.
Cavan Man
(11/27/00; 05:42:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42258)
USAGOLD 42228
MK, spot on analysis; what is truly important is how it all will end. This time and, unlike the theatre, it is quite satisfying to know the ending.
How is that new Franklin bio we saw at the "Tattered"?
wolavka
(11/27/00; 05:00:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 42257)
good read
Privateers' comments this week.
Like saying the last 20 years politics and Mr. Internet have
DIS INVENTED GOLD.
YA RIGHT, let's see how the clowns in congress can dis invent gold, and do it global!!!!!!!!!!
Zenidea
(11/27/00; 04:56:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42256)
Now the synapsis in my head have been itched.
Journeyman 42223 Soooooooo inate :).
Canuck 42195 Sooooooo you :).
Rhody 42192... The fox being the jury at the gooses trial is it ? :).
Black Blade . Your the most pal !:). Speak crude thats important. BP in Western Australia is threatening to close its doors ....
Then again like all things we have always been pissed off with sulfer in our fuel , dispite exporting sometimes sweet .
There was a big F up in a refinery last week, enough to shut some major boilers down in the power house 36.5 KVA , steam lines etc, and we were reprimanded re potentially ceasing the plant because we moved a sensitive instrument .And Mary hell went into play , its not the sensive instrument that is of note it is sensitive information. I learn't that the real big boys want the job done but they are , bless their hearts between a rock and a hard place' dont touch but I cant teach you what not to touch . What lead up to this out burst ? . Dont send millions of dollars of jets to bomb , just kick an instrument or two will do to cease up the joint. . Why meeeeeeeeee!. hassles hassles ! :).
Perhaps I spend so long to pretending stupid , I actually am. But its good to come home to USAGOLD :)
Topaz
(11/27/00; 04:50:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42255)
Wolavka
...and so it goes. Good having you here Wol, bedtime for this Bonzo...G-nite!
wolavka
(11/27/00; 04:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 42254)
topaz
dropping fast, interesting to see what funds will do, dollar is key here.
Topaz
(11/27/00; 04:33:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42253)
Wolavka
Yup, I saw your "heads up" last week on OI, 67K at the time, hows it holding now?
wolavka
(11/27/00; 04:23:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 42252)
Topaz
gold must be watch close, first notice due wed. dollar should drop like rock, swiss franc looks good.
Pandagold
(11/27/00; 04:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42251)
Harmony on a buying spree
Posted: 2000/11/27 03:39 AM EST
Harmony bid for AngloGold mines to exceed R1 billion - Swanepoel
".....Harmony Gold is bidding to buy two gold mines from AngloGold in a deal estimated by Harmony chief executive Bernard Swanepoel to cost "upwards of $128 million (R1 billion)". The two companies issued cautionary announcements on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange News Service (Sens) Monday morning (27 November) that negotiations to sell the mines were underway......"
Now you know the probable main reason for Harmony's stock price slip over the past few weeks. Remember to, that failure in these matters can sometimes cause the hunter to become the hunted. Whatever - it is, at least, a long term postitive.
Topaz
(11/27/00; 04:08:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42250)
wolavka
Kind of a portable Guy eh? Good luck to ya Mate! POG lookin "choppy" as we speak - those 1 hour plateaux in the middle of London look mighty suspect No?
wolavka
(11/27/00; 03:55:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 42249)
No comex for me
Spend time outside chicago, Hill country in TEXASSSSSSSSSSSS,
and Maui, sometimes cayman and turks &caicos.
Pandagold
(11/27/00; 03:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42248)
'Facts, and fiction', for the record
My dear fellow 'sufferers', I do read many financial writers' articles of which van Eerden's are included. However, I read them to glean an overall message and do not place too much credence on included statistics, ones that can only be based on government issued data.
Let me explain. National economic data such as forms a basis for arriving at percentages of this or that are issued by government and by that very fact are highly suspect. Governments lie by virtue of THEIR principles. Telling the truth is an anathema to ANY government. (My American cousins, you are not 'alone' out there)
It was, I believe, the only Jewish prime minister, ever, of the UK, Disraeli, way back in the 19th century, who declared that if the common man (oops, sorry, and woman) knew how government really functioned, and what went on in the 'inner sanctum', there would be an uprising to equate the French revolution ( or words to that effect. It is the general message that is important.)
If I want to know whether there is inflation, or it is about to rear its ugly head, I note the prices in the shops. Government will be the last to tell you, if ever. They may tell you it threatens for scare tacticts in order to get away with some devious interference in the money supply.(interest rate adjustments). If I want to know by what percentage it is rising, I work it out for myself. ( I keep a selection of my till receipts over a period of time).
If I want to know how much money is tied up in the stock market, I work that one out from factual (well, reasonably acceptable) trading data.
Often, one thing, of which a fact is known by empiricism, can lead you to assume certain others by their relevancy. In this vast turbulent ocean known as 'the financial system', we must do a certain amount of holding up a wet finger to determine wind direction or dropping a 'pooh stick' in the water to check the current.
Before any action is made, just let it be YOUR finger, and YOUR pooh stick.
My inclusion of van Eerden's article was mainly to get across the concept of understanding a trillion, and make a point that there is a 'helluvalot' of dollars sloshing around out there, whether the precise amount is known or not, or that any other of his (or anyone else's) quoted figures are factual.
While I am on this subject of the practice of mankind's propensity for assimilating information, I would like to offer for your consideration another yardstick I use.
When I was teaching English at an Asian university, I found my students had a penchant for Western media publications, and liked to read and discuss them. However, I used to tell them a rule, which I always applied before reading such material: before I started to read, I would say to myself - ' What do THEY want ME to believe today, and why do they want me to believe it'. And that is what I looked for - the general input intended for retention. The fun part is using one's powers of deduction to find the WHY.
Topaz
(11/27/00; 03:45:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42247)
Thai re: Ag coins, et Wol re: I'net lockup
G'day Thai,
The ONLY problem and it seems insurmountable with Ag coins the world over is dem pesky issueing authorities penchant for exorbitant spreads.
Give me a (new) Ag coin'(s) selling 1% above Spot and I'll give you a REAL threat to the Fiat status quo.
Theres no reason someone can't produce one (they're minting 10 and 20 cent coins (or facsimilie) the world over. Its a pity the Islamic Dirham comes with so much religious "baggage" as it fit's the bill nicely - make you own!
Wolavka,
Must be getting mighty lonely there at Comex - just you and the Cabal <wink> - I'm thinkin a Millenium Super Bug for entree's - 34 DTG, shoulda bought out a countdown Pin!
wolavka
(11/27/00; 02:54:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42246)
Dollar
Should continue to break hard to down side.
wolavka
(11/27/00; 02:44:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42245)
Expect to lose your connection soon
Back up all files, use protection , don't think the results of this election are gonna roll over without causing you and your loved problems. Free information over net will be limited or taxed . No more free lunch.
wolavka
(11/27/00; 02:33:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42244)
The big news now
Where's Balwin????????????????
ThaiGold
(11/27/00; 01:20:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42243)
Weighing In
Well, I can see everyone's still in a froth over this thing.
The only way to solve it, in a way that would please Al, is
for Bush to go-ahead and assume the office. Then he can
appoint Al Gore to the Supreme Court.
See how easy. Now let's all get back on topic. It's over.
DaveC
(11/27/00; 01:02:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42242)
PH in LA (11/26/00; 20:50:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42226)
PH in LA, it's easy to miss a few details with all the noise in the airthese days.
Bush has now won at least three vote counts. How many does it take in FLA? Is this some kind of "new math?"
We must try to put the pieces together.
Why did a bankupt telemarketing form in Texas, whose owner, from India, gave the Gore campaign over $1 million in donations, begin calling Palm Beach votores BEFORE teh polls closed on Tuesday, Nov 7, to ask if tehy had a problem with the now infamous butterfly ballots?
How was it that the Gore campaign flew 75 high-priced Washington DC lawyers down to Florida the day after the election? Are these guys and gals just sitting around waiting for the phone to ring?
How is it that the White House knew there would be no president-elect identified BEFORE the certification was to happen?
This does not pass the smell test.
DaveC
(11/27/00; 00:52:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 42241)
Journeyman (11/26/00; 21:23:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 42227)
Journetman, Nader's correct, it is fascism. I call it Fascist Democracy.
But if you read the Green Party's platform, it's complete socialism.
A bit ironic that the century's #1 fascist, Hitler, really hated the century's #1 communist, Stalin.
Peter Asher
(11/27/00; 00:28:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 42240)
Fund raisers are off subject,
But this will really free-up peoples time for productive endevour.
>George
> > W. Bush as our next President, will have catastrophic results
in
>our
> > vital, indispensable entertainment industry. Barbara Streisand, Ed
Asner,
> > Susan Sarandon, Whoopie Goldberg, Alec Baldwin, Martin Sheen, among
>others,
> > have sworn to leave the country if George W. Bush is elected. This is
>where
> > you can help. We need volunteers to help pack and load moving vans.
We
>also
> > need volunteers to provide airfare for these irreplaceable national
>treasures
> > so they can relocate before they can change their minds. For the cost
of
>a
> > small SUV you can sponsor one of these celebrities and their
unfortunate
> > relocation. You will receive postcards, letters and pictures from your
> > chosen "refugee" as they learn to become a useful citizen in the third
>world
> > country of their choosing. You will help, won't you? It costs so
little,
> > but it means so much. Call 1-800-deport-a-lib. Operators are standing
by
Black Blade
(11/27/00; 00:21:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 42239)
RE: Silvercollector, and thanks to Stranger and HBM.
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research/default.asp?viewnews=true&newstype=2
Stranger: Good to see you about and stirring around the Roundtable.
Hill Billy Mitchell: Thankyou for the kind thoughts. I only condensed some of my thoughts into as concise a post as possible based on the most recent events surrounding the coming Petroleum Crisis. Of course I was a bit more detailed in the "The Rise and Fall of Hydro-Carbon Man" post a few weeks ago. Again, I thank you.
Silvercollector: You asked a few questions that I will attempt to answer for you:
(1) So can I ask again that if 1999 was an overstocking does the fact that inventory figures for 2000 compared to 1999 (i.e. down 15%, 20%, 25% etc.) appear misleading? Were 1999 inventories high compared to 1998, therefore are 2000 figures comparative to 1998?
I wouldn't say that the inventory figures were overly misleading. However, there have been a few disputes between the EIA (Energy Information Administration) and the API (American Petroleum Institute) over inventory numbers in the past. If you get a chance you may wish to peruse the link above – it requires a simple registration but has a lot of research compiled by Matthew Simmons, a well known and respected investment advisor in the petroleum field. He has discussed the "missing barrels" problem. In short, the IEA (International Energy Agency) has stated that the oil glut a couple of years ago was not really a glut, but that there were over 700 million "missing barrels" that were added to inventory data. So when OPEC cut back on production in April 1999 it was a bit too much. The result was a maddening game of "catch-up" that strains capacity and continues to this day. We now find ourselves standing at the brink of a developing energy crisis where we are running out of spare capacity in oil, natural gas, and electricity.
(2) "No refiners wanted to be caught holding expensive oil if the bottom fell out of the market. The result was that inventories remained low and the price kept rising. Many refiners who were not affiliated with large oil producers had opted for "just-in-time" inventories in order to prevent being caught holding expensive oil in a declining oil price environment and to also avoid inventory taxes on unprocessed oil."
Does this explain the severe backwardization in crude or is something else causing this?
It explains some of it. However, it is a bit more complicated than that. The IEA and several analysts assumed that there would be an increase in supply due to increased demand. That in itself is a perfectly reasonable assumption. They haven't quite come to grips with the fact that production capacity has effectively been reached. You can also thank the lack of exploration and production expenditures by large producers during the period of low oil prices (about $10.00/bbl) for much of that. Many believed that only the Saudis have any excess capacity left, to the tune of 2 million bbl/day. That is debatable. Nevertheless, the Saudis have stated that they are more inclined to cut production in January, so excess capacity is probably a moot point. Currently supply is tight, but it is also a function of the refiners who do not wish to get caught in the same situation that they were in 2 years ago. They were holding oil bought at higher prices and the price of oil was declining. With razor thin margins, the refiners suffered. Distillates are truly in a tight supply-demand balance, so prices are high and going higher. However, the market is confused as analysts and wishful dreamers in government contend that prices will drop lower. Against this background the market has been in backwardation for some time.
(3) "They (OPEC) eventually submitted to blackmail, coercion, and extortion from the US and it's allies, and they began to increase production of oil. Of course by this time, some in the industry began to notice an increased demand for oil, and those supplies were critically short for heating oil and distillate products. Another weak link (actually several weak links) was discovered that affected the supply of oil to the end user. Not only were there not enough tankers and pipeline capacity to handle the increase in OPEC oil production, but worse was the fact that refineries were at full capacity and still barely able to meet demand – forget about heating oil and other specialty products."
So now OPEC has ceased to increase supply because they risk an inventory glut. Is this correct?
From yours,
"So in effect the OPEC producers could pump oil like there was no tomorrow and it would not matter one bit. There isn't anywhere to store it, and no way to refine it."
Again, a potential oversupply, yes?
Both of these questions are inter-related. OPEC has ceased to increase supply because they really don't have any excess capacity left. They have already increased supply 4 times at the behest of the US and other western governments. There is a very tight equilibrium between supply and demand for refined products. In fact it has come down to a choice between diesel and heating oil for some refiners. They tend to choose diesel because of the higher profit margin. When all is said and done, even if more oil was to arrive at the refiners’ tank farms, it wouldn't make much difference. Sure it could depress the price temporarily, however, the bottom line answer is that the refiners simply can not speed up the refining process and maintain a certain level of safety. Since refiners are running flat out with near 95% utilization rates, any problems or shutdowns would be felt almost immediately. Most of the US refineries have not shut down for scheduled maintenance and this could be a potential disaster. So you see, over supply really isn't even a consideration.
"Of course I have stated for quite some time that the real story isn't so much oil, but rather it is Natural Gas. Heating oil is only used by relatively few people for heating. Several times that number in the US use NG as a heating fuel. Here there are shortages as well. This is a bigger long-term problem."
Are we deflecting the oil/refining problem to NG? Trying to wean ourselves from foreign controlled oil to domestic controlled NG seems, as least on the surface, to be what is happening. Does this postulation have merit? I am considering NG call options for next winter. Without any form of commitment, implied or otherwise do you think this might be a good idea?
(4) I don't give much investment advice, especially on futures/options contracts because I never touch em’. There is just way too much manipulation in those markets for my blood. I tend toward undervalued equities. However, long term – natural gas is going to be under severe pressure as it is a clean burning fuel and therefore more desirable than coal and oil. The EPA mandates for clean energy and the difficulty and expense in obtaining "carbon credits" means that NG will be the fuel of choice going forward. Note that General Electric gas turbines for NG-fired power plants are backlogged for 3 years. By trying to wean ourselves off oil by turning to NG only trades one problem (tight oil) for another (tight natural gas).
I might add that higher energy costs will probably help reduce demand, however, these same higher costs will be passed along to the consumer in higher prices for goods and services. Note the surge in energy costs to customers in Southern California. Expect to see a surge in inflation (perhaps stagflation) in the coming months.
Hope that this helps,
- Black Blade
Peter Asher
(11/27/00; 00:04:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 42238)
Where have all the Gore votes gone?
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=65000686
Long time passing!
When Miami-Dade suddenly halted their re-count, I said "I wonder what they are trying to hide"
Well it appears to be a ploy to count the democratic leaning precincts only, stop the music, and use that tally to claim the uncounted precincts would have gone the same way. Turns out that if it had continued, the rest of the count would have added to Bush.
Excerpt from above link
>>>>>The Myth of Miami
Gore never had a treasure trove of
uncounted votes in Dade County.
This is specious. Brian Kalt, an assistant professor of law
at Michigan State University, has closely followed
Miami-Dade's recount. He notes that by beginning in
numerical order, it proceeded first through heavily
Democratic precincts, many of which had gone for Gore
by as much as 9 to 1. The 135 recounted precincts as a
whole gave Mr. Gore 74% of the vote, compared with
only 53% countywide. That means that the remaining
precincts as a whole went for Mr. Bush, and would have
delivered far fewer additional votes for Mr. Gore.
"The count was just about to move into heavily
Republican and Cuban areas," says Mr. Kalt. "Given how
the rest of the precincts would have voted, I don't see
how Gore would have picked up votes. If the trend had
continued, an admitted if, Bush would actually have
gained 400 votes countywide."
Mr. Kalt's analysis squares with that of other political
observers I spoke with. But such realities don't fit easily
into the "spin rooms" of cable television, where even the
anchors are parroting the line that Miami-Dade would
have been a "gold mine" of Democratic votes. No one
mentions that the Miami-Dade board originally had voted
unanimously not to have a manual recount on Nov. 14,
after a sample recount of three overwhelmingly
Democratic precincts turned up only six extra Gore votes.
The board voted to hold a recount only after it came
under intense political pressure from Democrats and
became the target of several Democratic lawsuits.<<<<<<
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
