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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/27/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Gandalf the White (4/27/99; 22:25:07MDT - Msg ID:5257)
Steve's request
VERY sorry to interrupt this lively discussion, BUT Steve, the GC9M has traded 10 contracts on the afterhours and it is UNCH at 283.5 HUGE size on the ask side ! Spot the dog is also UNCH at 282.0 after being slightly lower in downunder and HK. --- NOW back to the lively discussions.
<;-)


Peter Asher (4/27/99; 21:40:39MDT - Msg ID:5256)
Test
Checking out empty Forum

Arizona Hiker (4/27/99; 16:57:29MDT - Msg ID:5255)
those with a sense of humor....
might appreciate the following post on Kitco this afternoon....



Date: Tue Apr 27 1999 17:40
Thin Long & Hard On This (THOUGHTS!) ID#359307:
-

Someone once said, "noone wants cheesecake, that's why the US$ price keeps falling". Many thinking ones laugh at such foolish chatter. They know that the price of cheesecake is dropping precisely because "too
many people are buying it"! Think now, if you are a person of "great hunger" is it not better for you to acquire cheesecake over years, at better prices? If you are one of "small hunger", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow! An
experienced guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see.
The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper cheesecake and buying physical! Why? Because any form of paper cheesecake is loosing value much, much faster than real cake. Some paper cheesecake will disappear
all together in a fire of epic proportions! The massive trading continues at the London Cheesecake Marketing Association, but something is now missing? The Cheesecake Brokers are no longer lending! They will not anymore! We have reached production costs.
Cooking oil will have nothing of "paper cheesecake" if cheesecake must stay in the oven! And a Cheesecake Broker values the wishes of cooking oil far above it's return of leased cheesecake! Hear me now,
"if cheesecake tries to go lower than US$ $28 the Baker In Switzerland ( BIS ) will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see"! They must! They will! I know. For no pastry system could stand if cooking oil were to
bid for cheesecake!

If this oven burns too hot, cheesecake will turn and it's trading be halted. The price of cooking oil will explode as cheesecake becomes the "world pastry"!

We watch this new pastry market together, yes?

turbohawg (4/27/99; 16:43:27MDT - Msg ID:5254)
from the Contrarian ...
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/
... Bill Fleckenstein:

>Margin for error... I know last week has been long forgotten, but it's been brought to my attention via a couple of good industry sources that we were precariously close to massive margin calls last week. Both of these sources indicated that it was potentially going to be a lot worse than October of 1987. <


Gold -- that stuff Aristotle's got (and me too)

SteveH (4/27/99; 15:41:46MDT - Msg ID:5253)
FOA
Sir or Ms.,

I hear a sense of urgency in your's and Another's voices. A sense of deliberateness in the message that gold at this level is to be no more. I applaud your sensibility to peoplekind and can't help but think that the message seems to fall upon so few ears. It would seem that the work of GATA would be for nought if gold were to finally reach new levels higher, for battles must only be fought that are worth fighting, sometimes without consequence to the outcome.

I can only observe that should your predictions of the future come to pass that this world is truly comprised of two camps: those on the inside and those on the outside. Thanks for reaching across that gap. Time will tell all.

On a lighter note, Gandalf, I saw the XAU leading the way today, thanks for making the obvious apparent. :-}

Can someone post June gold? Not working again.


TownCrier (4/27/99; 15:33:56MDT - Msg ID:5252)
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Apr 27--
Jun gold settled up 90c at $283.50 per ounce after initially extending
Monday's losses and slumping to an 18-day low of $281.60. Gold continued to be
undermined by statements on proposals for sales of International Monetary Fund
gold. US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said today that the US supports selling
up to 10 million ounces of IMF gold (story .19860).
Japan finance minister Kiichi Miyazawa said today that Japan is offering the
IMF a plan on a possible sale of gold (story .21616).
When there was no follow-through on the downside, however, gold, with help
from firmer silver prices, managed to bounce back to end in positive territory.
"The technical signals look good for a buy," said one trader, noting that
gold looked "poised" to climb above the 40-day moving average.
Monday's increase in short positions showed that there was potential for a
repeat of the short covering rally gold saw a couple of weeks ago.

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

FOA (4/27/99; 15:09:04MDT - Msg ID:5251)
THE END OF A GOLDEN AGE?
http://www.aei.org/eo/eo10301.htm
The End of the Golden Age

By John H. Makin

-------"The major obstacle to a continuation of the U.S. golden age with rising stock prices and a growing U.S. economy is a global shortage of savings at current interest rates, especially if Japan recovers." -----------







Usul (4/27/99; 14:58:44MDT - Msg ID:5250)
House of the Cherry Garden- Answer
http://www.bis.org/
"This is ''the House of the Cherry Garden,'' [photo looks like a stately home, nothing like the monstrosity at http://www.bis.org/] at Basel, Switzerland, the home of the Bank for International Settlements. This international bank was established in 1930, when the Young Plan for arranging the payment of Germany's war debts was in operation. The bank had as its purpose the handling of the payments under this plan, and made it easier for the central banks of the various nations to work together."
- 1930's encyclopaedia


Gandalf the White (4/27/99; 14:48:13MDT - Msg ID:5249)
"Teaching Spot to Jump"
Treebeard the Ent has pointed out to me that perhaps the Hobbits are not the ones best qualified to teach Spot the dog jumping lessons. The young Ents have now been given the job.
<;-)

TownCrier (4/27/99; 14:21:21MDT - Msg ID:5248)
IMF official finds convergence on gold sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/bnb.html
Items you already know, some (such as September) that is news to you.

TownCrier (4/27/99; 13:43:28MDT - Msg ID:5247)
ECB says would be concerned if euro fell further
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/bge.html
European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said he saw factors that pointed toward strengthening, but declined to comment further. Perhaps we can read between the lines.

TownCrier (4/27/99; 13:40:06MDT - Msg ID:5246)
European central bankers for strong euro-Trichet
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/bf7.html
A classic quote from Trichet at the end.

TownCrier (4/27/99; 13:35:50MDT - Msg ID:5245)
Japan warns U.S. economy may be overheating
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/bdo.html
Oh so hot; no time to take a rest. Yeah...

TownCrier (4/27/99; 13:30:37MDT - Msg ID:5244)
Eichel-Germany will join talks on IMF gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/bcc.html
In the past, the Bundesbank has argued that the sale of IMF gold could harm the IMF's credibility and drive down global gold prices. Perhaps they no longer view this as a threat to prices...

TownCrier (4/27/99; 13:20:35MDT - Msg ID:5243)
FWN Closing N.Y. Metals: Firmer; Gold Recovers on Short Covering
New York-April 27-FWN--Gold futures recovered to finish
with a modest gain here today after the lack of follow-
through selling on a morning dip due to U.S. and Japanese
comments about International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold sales,
sources here said.

June gold earlier today traded down to $281.60 after
U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Japanese Finance
Minister Kiichi Miyazawa both favored IMF gold sales--to
provide debt relief to poor countries--of around 10 million
ounces. This echoed the view from the U.K. Treasury Monday,
which was around the higher end of market expectations.
However, the June gold contract later rebounded and
settled with a 90-cent gain for the day at $283.50.

"We didn't get much under yesterday's low ($281.70)
following comments by the Japanese finance minister and
Rubin," said Dave Rinehimer, head of futures research with
Salomon Smith Barney. "The lack of follow-through to that
news may have triggered some short covering and kept the
market relatively steady."

Patrick Magilligan, vice president with Prudential
Securities, commented that gold's recovery also may have
been helped by the lack of further news or decisions on IMF
sales at IMF meetings occurring in Washington today.
"The meeting occurred, but there weren't any details
given as far as what exactly they will be doing, and that
enabled it to bounce a bit," said Magilligan. "But it (IMF
sales) will probably be an overhang on gold, because we know
it will be done eventually."
Rinehimer put support for June gold at $280, while
resistance was listed at $286.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

Gandalf the White (4/27/99; 13:10:54MDT - Msg ID:5242)
Everything is " Lookin Good "
Evidence of the PPT pushing on a string is shown today as all BUT the DOW is in a red status and the DOW is falling off the new record level reached by the blastoff at the start of the day when the S&P Prem went double the normal. the XAU looks as if ready to BLASTOFF and Spot the dog is taking jumping lessons from the Hobbits.
<;-)

The Stranger (4/27/99; 12:57:26MDT - Msg ID:5241)
Julia
I might add to what my friend Aristotle (whom I admire greatly) has said in his excellent explanation of M3, etc. You also asked why it is important. Rapid growth in money supply usually causes inflation down the road, which can be good for gold. Because of the various currency "crises" of the past two years, the Fed has allowed/produced rapid growth of all the money aggregates that Ari defines in his post. But, as you know by now, M3 growth has lately stalled. Because of the long lag time which exists between money growth and its impact on the markets, I would not consider this a cause for immediate alarm among goldbugs. Still, I am sure it would pay to understand what is going on here. As is so often the case, I clearly do not.

turbohawg (4/27/99; 12:02:00MDT - Msg ID:5240)
Geez
good to hear you're out front on the matter. Never having been a gun enthusiast, I'm having to quickly get up to speed ... have learned a lot just over the last few months that is helping me make informed decisions.

Incidentally, an acquaintance in the gun business told me recently that he's seeing ammo go out the door in cases.

beesting (4/27/99; 11:28:02MDT - Msg ID:5239)
Reread Article
Article says DEALERS buying EURO/YEN not Japanese.
SShhhheeeeeeeesss! .........beesting

beesting (4/27/99; 11:22:05MDT - Msg ID:5238)
Possible Turning Point.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/bcz.html
Japanese buying EURO's.
At this moment Gold up!
Stocks seem to be sliding down.
The rumer is: The Japanese are after the IMF Gold at the cheapest possible price..........beesting

TownCrier (4/27/99; 10:32:00MDT - Msg ID:5237)
Canadian banks are guaranteeing that customers’ money will be safe in their accounts
http://www.cbcnews.cbc.ca/news/cp/business/990424/b042402.html
Safe IN is not the problem. What about ability to get it out?

Gandalf the White (4/27/99; 10:28:22MDT - Msg ID:5236)
XAU and the GC9M shorts
SteveH --- have you noticed that the XAU has taken a good bounce this morning and is up 4.5 % while the June gold contract is up one point. I noticed that the gold shorters are only able to knock down the price less than two points with the normal dump of up to two hundred contracts at a time !! Things are changing. Spot the dog is getting frisky.
<;-)

AEL (4/27/99; 9:32:50MDT - Msg ID:5235)
Julia...
I much enjoyed your comments ... "I compare gold to wholistic medicines. The closer it is to the way God made it the better for us it is." ha! resonates with the Mr Natural (fundamentalist) in me. And I, too, am going much more on gut and instinct than anything like an erudite understanding of economy and finance... though I try. I wonder if, past a point, this whole crazy mess cannot possibly be "figured out" intellectually -- no matter how brilliant and well-informed you might be. Indeed, though far from brilliant, I become very well-informed about Y2K, but eventually concluded that there is no way to anticipate the outcome except in the most (frightening!) rough sort of way; like 10% chance of TOTAL crash and burn (collapsed division of labor, back to 1920, etc.), 20% chance of big crash but no burn (back to 1950, 30's-style depression, etc.), and so forth. In other words, there are too many wildcards in this thing (IMHO) for anyone to completely rule out even the most dreadful outcomes. Hence, what is the point of being "extremely well-informed" if one cannot make predictions that are at least somewhat more specific than "something between total collapse and a bump in the road"?! So, back to those gut feelings, those instincts... with gold/money as with Y2K. I sense that tangibles in general and metals in particular will come back with a major vengeance, that every buck spent on real stuff now will be in retrospect the best investment imaginable. (BTW: don't forget ammo! I suspect that it, too, will appreciate fantastically.) But I am not going to try to rationalize it intellectually anymore. And if I'm wrong... hey, I can always liquidate and move into internet stocks... ;)

Regarding de Jager (and response to his "doomsday avoided"), see: http://y2k.inode.org/dejager.htm



USAGOLD (4/27/99; 9:08:19MDT - Msg ID:5234)
Today's Report: Standoff!
MARKET UPDATE (4/27/99): Gold tracked sideways today still dominated by the
expanding short position pulling it downward and physical demand pulling it upward. As
such, the price seems to be in a state of suspension like two gunfighters on main street each
waiting for the other to make its move.

Both Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa
called for IMF gold sales of up to 10 million ounces, about $3 billion -- an insignificant
amount compared to the ocean of emerging nation debt the funds are supposed to cover.
The Brazilian bailout last year alone amounted to $42 billion. Bundesbank President
Tietmeyer reiterated today that gold sales are not on the agenda for this week's IMF
meetings. In what appeared to be a co-ordinated attack on the yellow metals Britain's
Chancellor the Exchequer Gordon Brown also called for the sale of 10 million ounces.
Now Brown says that the IMF will "agree on a sale of its gold reserves at its Fall meeting,"
according to a Bridge News report this morning. Gold held up well under the circumstances
-- down just 40¢ as we go to fetch this report over to the server.

Standard Charter reports that "Gold was very quiet in London, ignored the UK's call for
the IMF to double proposed gold sales to 10 million ounces. The U.S. funds however did
react by resuming their attack on the downside." Standard goes on to say that strong
physical buying from the Middle East developed as gold moved in just above the $280
range. In other gold news, the European Central Bank gold holdings remained unchanged
for the most recent reporting period. The Tokyo and Hong Kong markets were quiet as
well.

That's it for today. We'll update if anything interesting surfaces.

ORDER FORM for a Free Copy of News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter
-- and introductory packet on gold ownership.

TownCrier (4/27/99; 9:06:00MDT - Msg ID:5233)
Japan calls for larger IMF gold sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/y4.html
I can see clearly now the rain is gone...

TownCrier (4/27/99; 9:02:36MDT - Msg ID:5232)
No differences of opinion on euro level-Austrian
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/zw.html
The euro's exchange rate is less significant for the economy than exchange rate movements had been for the 11 members before the January union.

TownCrier (4/27/99; 8:53:12MDT - Msg ID:5231)
Rubin: Global Economic Risks Remain
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/990427/world_econ_2.html
Blunt words from USTreaSec Rubin following G7 meetings.

Jon (4/27/99; 8:36:48MDT - Msg ID:5230)
y2k Julia's msg #5226
I have not seen any comments with respect to start of fiscal year 2,000 by Canada and State of New York with, apparently, no difficulty. Further, I believe both ATT and Bell have announced they are now compliant, as did a major airport {Detroit?}. Would sincerely appreciate hearing comments from learned pros. Thanks.

Aristotle (4/27/99; 8:17:22MDT - Msg ID:5229)
Julia and M3
Here is a quick explanation to get you started. M1, M2, and M3 are simply the shorthand name for monetary aggregates measuring different "kinds" of money.
M1 is the money in readily spendible form...cash and checking accounts (transacton deposits). M2 adds on the savings deposits and short time deposits, while M3 further adjusts for institutions' assets and liabilities.

In a nutshell, it is a measure of the nation's money supply.

Aristotle (4/27/99; 8:06:33MDT - Msg ID:5228)
Wise words from a wise guy--turbohawg!
"Perhaps we should care less about a rise in the price of gold and more about what gold represents: freedom, integrity, individuality, reality."
My friend, they say a picture is worth a thousand words, yet with only 23 words you've described a whole Life--mine!
And from the indications by FOA and ANOTHER today, that same "life" will take on a new value as perceived by our fellow countrymen. Even were that perception not to change, as has been the story these past many years with falling prices, my regular convertion of excess earnings to Gold has been and remains a truly rewarding experience... "freedom, integrity, individuality, reality," just as you have said.

Get you some. ---Aristotle


Julia (4/27/99; 7:56:10MDT - Msg ID:5227)
OOOps
http://www.year2000.com/archive/NFy2khowbad.html
Sorry, forgot the link for Peter de Jager.

Julia (4/27/99; 7:53:02MDT - Msg ID:5226)
FOA, ANOTHER, Y2K & M3 Growth
FOA & ANOTHER -- It is great to read your words again. Your thoughts are always welcomed. It was a heart warming feeling I had when I held my gold coins for the first time. The first thing I did was wash them. It was like adopting an abandoned child. I imagined the years of neglect falling away with the grime. Silly? Maybe. But the feeling I have, knowing that my investment is in my hand and not in someone else's is comforting. I feel protective. I can't explain or understand completely all the financial terms like you can. I just instinctively know what is right for me. Your insights have given me confidence to trust in my instincts. It really doesn't matter if its oil, financial warfare, market manipulation or other manmade stumblingblock. I compare gold to wholistic medicines. The closer it is to the way God made it the better for us it is. Knowing that I hold something so precious that comes from God's earth and not man's imitation is important to me. I live my life making decisions with that yardstick. You and Michael and all on this forum are my friends on this same journey watching this new gold together. I appreciate the tremendous intelligence here. Thank you for educating me. I wish I could give back a small portion of what i have gained. My family is much more secure now.

Y2K - Thought someone might be interested in this link. Peter de Jager is one of the pioneers of awareness about the magnitude of the Y2k problem years ago. Any thoughts or links from anyone refuting his stance on this now?

M3 Growth - Would FOA, ANOTHER or some chivalrous Knight or fair Lady enlighten this neophite as to what this is and why it's significance is?

Thank you, Julia

Christine (4/27/99; 7:33:22MDT - Msg ID:5225)
@Turbohawg--Thank you for 23:52
Your words were better than I could say it. Gold has been hugely manipulated downward. There is little doubt in my mind we will see it restore to fair value soon. I am not relieved by anything else that will accompany that event, however.

FOA (4/27/99; 6:46:19MDT - Msg ID:5224)
Same body with a new look?
Christine'
I also understand your response to Another. But, I understand his stance in a different light. In
your #5212, I read "solutions rest in greater individual responsibility and freedom". Most certainly
people have reached for these ideals sense time began. A search through history will find that they
were never fully achieved, as reality always dictated the final agreements. Yes, the US was
founded "upon principles of freedom, not principles of prosperity", but these components are truly
convoluted in that country today! I believe that people evolve and resolve there highest goals as
reality dictates. Where paper money today is, at best, only a receipt for your life efforts savings,
surely society will reach for the something different. Sometimes, even something a little different is
a major change.
The dollar will fall from it's own weight of unpayable debt. That fall will occur because people
will exercise their "individual responsibility and freedom" and grasp for the next best "existing"
system. Hopefully, that system will continue to allow for a world wide "open trading" gold market.
Will it's price still be manipulated in Euros? Personally, I don't care, as long as I may buy physical
gold, the history of wealth retention is on my side. Thanks for your thoughts FOA

FOA (4/27/99; 6:11:35MDT - Msg ID:5223)
20 year chart of gold!
http://members.home.net/rjgold/metals/ghist.htm
This period will be seen as a base for an explosion in dollar gold prices. A time that many investors learned what they thought money was all about! The next generation will learn something "very different". FOA

FOA (4/27/99; 6:03:27MDT - Msg ID:5222)
(No Subject)
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif
The end of a long politically inspired downtrend. This is the last opportunity to exchange dollars for gold at this level. Forget the IMF sales and all others because they will be selling into a rising market! None of that gold will be sold anywhere near current prices. Yes, the failure of the dollar, masquerading as "a simple return of inflation" will mark the end of gold values as we currently understand them.
FOA

SteveH (4/27/99; 2:48:20MDT - Msg ID:5221)
June gold may hit $283-284 today, as it is now...
$282.80. Turbohawg and Oregon Geezer, good to see you burning the late night oil OR meeting the dawn.



Oregon Geezer (4/27/99; 2:20:04MDT - Msg ID:5220)
To turbohawg
I went to a big local gun show on Sunday. Business was very slow and I did not see any actual gun purchases. A lot of antique stuff was available. I think the deadline of reporting sales last November has slowed down transactions. Those in the know, myself included, topped off the inventory prior to November.
Ammo purchases will be the next crack down. Expect a private inventory limit of 1,000 rounds without a license.
For the self-loaders it appears that primers may have a way of being implanted with an expiration compound. Then comes limits on powder purchases. Incrementalism, the slow but sure pathway of control. Just look at the tale of tobacco over the last 30 years from warning messages to outright banning smoking.
I've done what I can in preparation and the lovely yellow metal that arrived last week thanks to MK just about finishes the task.

turbohawg (4/27/99; 0:54:29MDT - Msg ID:5219)
M3 commentary
http://www.ntrs.com/rd/rd35/rd35fr.html
hmmm ... looks like the Forum is empty tonight ... just me
<come on in girls>

turbohawg (4/27/99; 0:26:59MDT - Msg ID:5218)
Klinton going after guns again, predictably
http://companies.newspage.com/item.cfm/c0427012.600?heads=yes
Get your insurance while you can. When was the last time you heard Klinton & Co(ns) or the de facto state run press talk of how many lives guns have SAVED ??

turbohawg (4/27/99; 0:17:49MDT - Msg ID:5217)
quick edit of previous post
before Aristotle resumes his stance ...

>I'll be a believer that a new era of freedom and prosperity are on the horizon not when I see a new central bank using gold as a front for credibility, but when I see no central bank and [CURRENCY] itself using gold for credibility.<

whew !!!!




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