Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...
The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/26/2003 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) slingshot (09/26/03; 23:36:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 109480) Winners of the Essay Contest Congratulations to the winners of the contest. My apologiesfor not posting sooner, but had a matter of great concern to handle. A Thank You to our host for holding these contest and to the moderator,Gandalf the White. To the judges, A Job Well Done.May I add, we are all Winners here at this forum. Although I detected a small discourse, that was a point well taken,it only substanciates the Golden Proverb. He who has the Gold ,Makes the rules. I will continue to enter for the Gold or Silver. The price is right for just a few thoughts put to print.Slingshot---------------<> Yukon (09/26/03; 22:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109479) Thanks for the Honorable Mention in the Essay Contest! Just wanted to say thank you to Gandalph, Sir MK and the other hard working judges for deeming my entry worthy of "honorable mention". In light of all the entries, you surely had your work cut out for you. As a member of this table round for a little over five years, I believe I have finally engrained enough of the mechanics of how "our" market works and what effects it to move to be able to write out some thoughts and offer my views on where we are and where we are most probably going. Thanks again for the contests and for this great forum. The education I have gained along the way has been (in my mind) unbelievable. I have all the great people of this table to thank for that.R. Powell and all: Just wanted to let you know that our friend, James Grant (of Grant's Interest Rate Observer), was interviewed on CNBC today and was found to be bullish on not only gold but, yup you guessed it, silver! He liked PHYSICAL holdings as a play for the individual investor and defined his rationale for such as, "a hedge", which he made the point, is different than a speculation. He apparently also holds a position in Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS), but this only came to light after the interviewer pried it out of him and made him comment. His reply was that Pan American is a good play as a low cost silver producer. He concluded with the fact again that the world's fiat monies are all competing to devalue against each other (thereby improving exports)and as such, metals stand ready to appreciate.Viva Liberty!Yukon Black Blade (09/26/03; 22:11:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109478) Silvercollector Chinese Gold http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm Silvercollector Chinese GoldThanks for the link. I saw references to this or a similar article and was eager to read it. The rumors persist that the Peoples Bank of China is quietly buying gold to add to its reserves. One question would be how much are they really buying vs. what they are reporting. We know that they have bought gold directly from South African miners but perhaps they have bought more from others as well. It is also a persistent rumor that they have been buyers of western CB gold in the past and were a major buyer of BoE gold when Mr. Brown essentially "gave away" the Brit peoples gold at a pittance for now vastly devalued foreign currencies/debt. One now must ask if they are buyers of the long standing Swiss gold sales program too. China has a huge position in U.S. debt that they are using to build infrastructure and rapidly industrialize. It would not be much of a surprise at all if they have used a portion of their top-heavy position in U.S. debt to purchase precious metals to diversify reserves. On a side note it is quite amusing that some analysts here and abroad have been talking of slowing physical gold sales as the price has risen an yet we hear from various sources that Japanese among others continue to see robust physical buying. There does appear to be a shift of precious metals (especially gold and platinum) to the Far East. That these markets are not "transparent" may be by design as to accumulate without drawing too much attention. After all, when this region holds over $2.5 trillion in U.S. paper it would appear to be more than enough to have in reserves as a portion of a "basket" of foreign currency reserves. Some interesting snippits form the article:It is "safe and feasible" for China to spend part of its foreign exchange reserves on gold imports, as well as place such purchases on the domestic market and open the market to individual players at the earliest possible opportunity, said Xi Jianhua, Bank of China's gold business expert. About 20 per cent of respondents to a recent national survey said they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings in gold investment, indicating a huge potential demand for gold. Based on the survey results, Xi estimated that a possible injection of as much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market. The money would create demand for about 3,000 tons of gold, he said. It would then only be natural for the country to expand imports as China currently has just 600 tons of gold reserves at its disposal, far from enough to cope with the potential gold rush. In the initial stages, individual investors would create a market demand for 300 to 500 tons, according to analysts, and further growth would be gradual. Using the reserves to purchase foreign gold would not only help withdraw billions of yuan now in circulation, but also boost the overall national import volume, Xi said, and thus "ease pressures on the appreciation of the yuan". Xi's suggestions were echoed by Xu Shouxin, vice-director general of the China Gold Association. Xu said the association has long proposed promoting individual ownership of gold, adding that the best way would be to allow commercial banks to start individual gold investment services at the earliest possible date. He also stressed the need to spend part of the country's foreign exchange reserves on gold imports once the domestic market is opened to individual investors. The time is now perfect for the government to make the move, say analysts, citing potential room for further hikes in gold prices, both in the domestic and international markets. Xi noted that Japanese investors have been buying in substantial amounts of gold since the beginning of this month, while the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar has produced more opportunities for European investors in the gold market. For thousands of years, the Chinese have traditionally saved gold and worn gold ornaments, analysts reason. If the government does decide to allow individual investors into the sector, the landscape of the entire gold industry worldwide could change completely.Black Blade: That Chinese officials speak to openly and directly like this is not very common. Chinese demand in a fully liberalized gold market would rock the precious metals markets into a whole new ball game. Earlier this week there was a rumor that a major Asian investor (or group of Asian investors) were on the prowl for a large amount of physical gold. That seems to be quite possible given the possibility of a fully liberalized Chinese gold market. Druid (09/26/03; 21:33:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109477) Goldendome http://www.stanford.edu/class/history34q/readings/Rotman/Rotman_Origins.html "Whether a form of insurance or speculation (the difference is unreal and for the present purposes irrelevant), options/futures trading has grown at a near vertical rate since the early 1970s, since, in fact, money became inconvertible and exchange rates floated against each other. Trade in them is now an essential and uneliminable component of the world money market (see Illustration 22)."Druid: Go to link for the cited Illustration, its an impressive graph."What, then, is this multi- billion dollar a day market doing? What purposes is it serving? The conventional view of money, as the medium of exchange for goods, would have to answer that the billions flow in the service of world trade, that they finance transactions in goods and services. But few commentators would maintain this, and some version of the following seems generally accepted: 'Less than five per cent' perhaps only one or two per cent, of the tens of billions traded on the currency markets each day mirror an equivalent transaction in goods or services' (Stephens, 1985a). The rest of these tens of billions - the bulk - must therefore make up the secondary money market; a market devoted to the buying and selling of money and of futures/options on money. The significance of this is that the conventional vector of cause and necessity which points from trade to finance, from things to money, has been reversed: it is the financial tail that wags the dog of economy and trade:""The divorce between foreign exchange transactions and the trade flows which used to be their raison d'etre has resulted in an underlying volatility which ensures a steady turnover in expansion. The markets are now driven by capital rather than trade flows, and currencies have become commodities whose value depends more on the buyer's expectation of its resale value than on underlying economic developments."Druid: Gdome, Ten Bears posted this link earlier and its a phenomenal read(my brain is still hurting). I hope this helps. Gandalf the White (09/26/03; 21:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 109476) Attention ALL Contest Prize Winners & First Essay Posters !! It has been drawn to my attention that there are a number of prizes that are unable to be mailed out because of INCOMPLETE INFORMATION provided to Lady Marie.AND, NO !!! rich and famous Sir Smeagol, you can not have all the unclaimed PRECIOUS prizes ! These are being held until the correct data is received !IF you did not provide Lady Marie via email at (marie@usagold.com) the following data:Your posting "Handle"; The msg # of your post (not needed if POG entry);Your REAL name; ANDYour snailmail address.please do so asap.It may be that a few of the WINNERS were "Newbies" that read the USAGOLD Forum infrequently, and they may not yet have seen that they WON !! SOOOO, I am listing the contest prize winners below. REMEMBER too, if your FIRST POST was as an ESSAY CONTEST entry -- you automatically won an one ounce SILVER U.S. Eagle !! <;-)5th Birthday Anniversary Contest Prizes !!PRICE GUESSING CONTESTLady Waverider (1/2 ounce Gold Eagle)Sir Runner (British Sovereign)Sir 401 (British Sovereign)ESSAY CONTESTSir Remarx (One ounce Gold Eagle)-Sir Usul (Gold Wilhelm II 20 Mark)Sir phil288 (Gold Wilhelm II 20 Mark)-Sir Aurion (Silver Eagle)Sir Rich Powell (Silver Eagle)Sir Smeagol (Silver Eagle)===<;-) Goldendome (09/26/03; 20:55:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 109475) What determines the Gold Price? You know, sometimes I get confused and want to know--WHAT DOES determine the price of Gold--physical or paper?You recall the kids game (Rock, Paper, Scissors)? Played with the hands? Where paper covers rock to win, but scissors cut paper to win, but then rock can break scissors to win. You never know what will be thrown out there against you. The Gold market, sometimes, seems like a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors.At first glance, I would say physical gold (let's call it, Rock) should control the markets, because there is a limited supply that can ultimately be used to quench demand. But more often it seems, it is the futures market (let's call it, Paper, shall we)that seems to cover the Rock, as it can be sold in unlimited quantities to over-power and drive down the Rock price, as has happened the past couple of days. What are the Scissors? I'll call them (Debt). Debt will eventually cut through the paper to win. But physical gold-- the Rock--will win out over Debt(Scissors) as it can not be defaulted on.This is just a little game I was playing in my head as I was writing this and pondering my own question. I think it shows me at least, that on any day any aspect of the Gold market, and it's price influences, may be in control and having the major effect on prices. I would certainly welcome any comments (not so much on my little game, unless you want to) but whether paper price determines physical price, or vise versa.-------Gdome Smeagol (09/26/03; 19:52:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 109474) to Cobra and Gandalf - 3 red 'O's Methinks it is a delay between sstages before another one lights. How far will the next one take It? Careful, Gandalf, thiss might even one-up YOUR fireworks (grin)!S. Smeagol (09/26/03; 19:25:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 109473) to Kilo (9/25/03; 23:10:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 109422) Iss simple Smeagol's face red! We figured if it closed on e-bay at that price, then that was what It ssold for, because there were other ones that showed final prices in the $80,000s, yes. We thanks you for the correction and apologizes for any ruckuss!S. CoBra(too) (09/26/03; 19:15:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109472) Swiss Gold - Russian & et al 's Oil Hi Belgian,Even if you guys host the EU Parliament, please don't discount the miniature members. That may be a bit premature for an equally miniature Republique Belgique... Da'ccor, it's beside the point as you've got no OIL and sold most of your GOLD, you've decided to play a major role in administrating the EU. Even if other people's guys are playing the major roll's, you'll host 'em. And all of them just love to be in Bruxelles, so much that they wanna sign on for-ever ... to be sure - for da pay not for da outdated Atomium, the only other attraction, except the thought of "ANOTHER" Eurostat (un-)solicited pay-check! - may be in other confetti - namely ...Sorry, Sir, didn't mean to be "that" mean, though that's the way you're great politicians felt to treat some of the minor members of the Union - forgetting your own (in-)equal status. Tell's a lot about the EU - what say you -cb2 Belgian (09/26/03; 18:37:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 109471) Swiss Gold - Russian Oil Nobody ever asks " WHY " the neutral Swiss (non EU-US) are selling 1/2 of their goldreserves ! WHY _ WHY _ WHY !!!-???Ask yourself a few very simple and basic questions and start elaborating on them : Is Switzerland a poor, isolated, banana enclave...? How many times can one sell its goldreserves...? *WHAT* (comparable value) DOES ONE GET IN RETURN FOR ONE'S GOLD...? Do some specific central banks have a dis-proportionate great amount of goldreserves...?etc...etc...I have some posting-fatique and leave the thoughts to other forumers...@ KnallGold : The co-incidence of the reiteration of the Swiss goldsales AND 2x6$ knock off from the POG is, indirect evidence, that the Swiss goldsales contain one specific (by-side) element : The Swiss goldsales want to *please* (again) some very specific (US) International banker(s) (cfr. M. Rich & Co)! Switzerland *is* and remains an *International* Banker. Note that this NOT the main reason !@ Operative : The US (> dollar) is "explicitely" asking (demanding) a "co-operative" POO !!! Not only from mother Russia !!! Today, at CNBC-Europ, this demand (begging) for a co-operative POO was mentioned in unfortunate combination with a hedgefund-manager making some crude-raw remarks on the dollar's status !!!What if,...IF,...the US$ devalues more against Gold than it loses in exchange rate against the euro !?Goodnight. seeker (09/26/03; 18:36:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 109470) Central Bank official of China talking openly about manipulating the yuan via gold. http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256DAD0073688C?OpenDocument Snippit:At a Denver Gold Forum luncheon devoted to gold investment issues, Pierre Lessoned, president of Newmont, said Chinese gold demand could only grow with deregulation. "Current consumption is 0.2 grams per person per year. In India it is over 0.7 grams and grew from a level similar to the Chinese 11 years ago. Indian gold market deregulation grew demand from 200 to 900 tonnes, although it has slipped to 600 tonnes now," he said. "Imagine if China grows from 0.2 to 0.7 grams of gold per person? It will be the largest gold market in the world. It will happen, I can see it."The implications are staggering --- seeker R Powell (09/26/03; 17:37:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 109469) CoBra(too) Let me whole heartedly second your sage advice. Transfering fiat into physical is (imho) sound policy. The paper games have a habit of continually amazing, sometimes happily- sometimes disappointingly, those who venture in. How did Jessie Livermore say it, the unknown and the unknowable! All those analysts who continually ask for money in return for investment advice wouldn't need any of our money if their advice were as valuable as they would have us believe.The final analysis rests upon each of us. However true I believe this to be, I'll always be a player and have also paid my dues to diligence (studying researching and often learning the hard way). I can proudly say that I'm still in the game but, alas, rich in name only. Although physical possession has been a wealth security vehicle in the past as opposed to an interest bearing investment, I no longer believe it is not such. The gold carry trade is no longer. That is, imho, precious metals (along with many other more mundane commodities) will not only protect purchasing power but also may return the type of "growth" returns that high risk mutual funds managers dream of. This isn't your father's gold market, anymore! Happy weekend! Rich Cometose (09/26/03; 16:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109468) real estate bubble News right off MAIN STREET for your digestion.......I have been informed by someone who knows the area and who is in the business.....that last july (2002) 40 houses went to closing in RIFLE .......THIS year the number was 6.COntractors (one from the area in particular) inventory is rising.....he has had to rent three of his houses and the fourth one he isn't going to build...Mean while over in Grand JUNCTION the foreclosure rate is going astronomical..... CoBra(too) (09/26/03; 16:33:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 109467) Here's Another Exaggeration... As Bill Murphy says ..."The Gold Cartel and Working Group On Financial Markets are truly pathetic and in my opinion ruining the financial system in the United States". The truth is these fiends are ruining the entire global system, which after all is based on the "only" reserve currency the world has known for too long, and is permitted by the IMF and WB to use only fiat, based on the US dollar reserve standard ... Isn't it great? A fraud, unfortunately, as it's turning out - like every fiat paper currency before ... and as I just pulled a reserve 100 $ note from my wallet, the avers says "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private" ... that's probably why it states: "In God we trust". ... and so do I. In money matters I only trust gold - and yes Rich P., some very well researched producers a/o future producers of the same, though I'm very reluctant to advise anyone without the kind of experience I've been through over years. ... and that may be that I've advised newbies to go safe than be sorry - as I've had my share of the latter - so all you guys get physical before playing the markets ...cb2 PS- Also like AG ... a 20% VAT problem in the EU ... until you know how to play along ... R Powell (09/26/03; 15:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109466) CoBra(too) I've often had to sit at a table further away than others (and Anothers) from the warmth of the fire since it's known that, along with physical silver, I trade paper. Now that you've confessed.... "Still holding on to some primary and even future promises to produce reality - which may not be to everybody's pleasure, as a lot of DD goes into such endeavours - and then the outcome is questionable." .....let me offer you a chair if need be. Actually, I believe there may be more closet paper players among us than are suspected. I have never seen any convincing argument that physical possession excludes well researched (DD) investment ventures. Indeed, it is probably the investments that become transfered into the permanent safety of bullion and coins. Would I, if I had it? You bet, I'd not store it in fiat! As for POG, I believe the momentum yet builds. How many have been waiting with money in hand to buy the next dip? If so and quickly, then the Wizard's prediction and then some may be upon us in a heartbeat. Rich erayboy (09/26/03; 15:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 109465) Thank You for the Invitation, But ... To the Judges of the Essay Contest:Thank you for mentioning me and inviting me to assist in the judging process. However, I must decline. I'm really not very perceptive as you may have noted by my essay. My interpretation of the essay description IMPLIED that you wanted an evidence-filled PROOF that the GOLD BULL had begun based on pricing, percent advanced, and prior history. That was not quite the case. In reality, the apparent goal was to see who could enumerate the most complete list of fundamental reasons why GOLD is likely to go up. Sorry, I totally missed that point ... I'll try harder next time.I'd also like to thank you for making this forum freely available, thereby promoting the free interchange of ideas pertaining to the GOLD/SILVER markets, and for having these contest events which we all find surprisingly exciting. Black Blade (09/26/03; 15:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109464) R. Powell Swiss National Bank Gold Sales I probably didn't go into enough detail. I am not sure that these investors were "late comers" or not, or some combination. When the press release first came out it did not specify that the sales were part of the WA package. That caused some immediate attention but anyone who could do some quick mental calculation would've realized that these were not new gold sales at all. However, the gold price immediately dropped over $2 on the news before rebounding as more rational thinkers caught on. The selling through the rest of the day into today's NY session was simply "window dressing" as it's "end of quarter". Much of the same occurred in the equities market this week as well. Some Hedge Funds also sold precious metals positions in a spurt of "profit taking" to meet other obligations that came due or will come due by Tuesday (end of quarter). Some weak hands got a bit shaken (mostly novice specs in my opinion or some who just wanted to take profits hoping to get back in on a lower price despite tax consequences maybe). Anyway, we tend to see this activity at the end of quarter for most any sector that has had a good run and if the fundamentals justify it, they return and keep the Bull Market intact. But this is mostly just to make the "funds" look good to sell their product to new potential investors it's sort of like "hey, look how good a manager I am I made lotsa money for my clients so won't you give me yours to manage too". I suspect next week we will be back to business as usual and with "earnings season" upon us there could be a lot of disappointed equities investors looking outside the traditional investments. The Swiss Gold Sales announcement was really much a do about nothing though and perhaps some investors had a "senior moment" and simply forgot that this was already a known and planned event consistent within the WA. - Black Blade R Powell (09/26/03; 15:35:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 109463) ANOO Self-inflicted humble pie? Okay, also the dragon's toenails need to be clipped. You know no one else wants to do it so volunteering would definitely endear yourself to everyone. I've found it's best to ask the wizard to put the beast to sleep before starting on the nails. As for needing the prize coins, are you still long Comex contracts with a no-trading but rather a buy and hold strategy? If so, we might be asking you to pony up some coins for the next contest. The state of Massachusetts (RED SOX!) has a lottery. Your mention of humility reminded me of a bumper sticker that reads...."Lord, please let me win the lottery, so that I can prove to you that I could remain humble." Happy weekend... CoBra(too) (09/26/03; 15:29:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 109462) "O" ! @ the Wizard ...Three red "O's", wow!Seems like the power build up of a rocket - to da moon - mon?!Ya suah...so'm I - Hey, hi ... cb2 Gandalf the White (09/26/03; 15:12:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 109461) Thanks, Sir CB2 http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,P OK, OK, Sir CB2, There are now THREE RED "O's", (a slight hesitation) just for you !!!This pullback is to allow you to "BUY THE DIP", but you better hurry, as the ride "TO THE MOON" will start soon.<;-) R Powell (09/26/03; 15:09:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 109460) Happy Friday to All Mr. Gresham: Thanks for reminding us what fun it is to read Mogambo's words. It prints out at 11 pages. As for that retirement pension, I still have my copy of "The Whole Earth Catalogue". Maybe too many people judge how well they're doing by how much money they're making as opposed to how little they need. There are ways to substantially cut the latter when there is a shortfall in the former. BB: If as you implied in your daily report, weak hands sold on new reports of Swiss gold sales- all of which fall within the WA guidelines- then can we surmise that these were Johnny-come-lately investors who have little knowledge of the situation? There are always retractions in any bull market, usually called profit taking, and usually the result of selling by the weaker players. The bull does not like the trend followers and tries to shake them off. Now we need to look to the technicians like Socrates, Gandalf and Hamilton (among many others) to "divine" where the next bottom might be. Over the course of the last few years the 200 day moving average has been good support but, in the bigger arena of ever changing financial sentiment in which gold trades, will POG retract that far? Some are calling the 380 level support. Who knows? I certainly don't. Happy weekend !! Rich CoBra(too) (09/26/03; 14:59:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109459) I Don't Care - I buy the Dips ... of GOLD Sometimes I really do get moody - not that I don't know a bull market is climbing a wall of worry - the gold market is climbing despite the bulls! ... and who needs bulls throwing in the towel at all and every stalling of the advance? I guess the bull needs the unsure, getting shaken out at every and all stalls. Good luck to them and good luck to the happy go lucky TA experts, calling every short term turn. Can I care less? I sleep very well in the knowledge to have a major part of my personal wealth in real ancient acknowledged values and won't ever be swayed by today's tide to buy or sell - as I still accumulate on dips vis a vis fiat paper (hedonic) pricing.Still holding on to some primary and even future promises to produce reality - which may not be to everybody's pleasure, as a lot of DD goes into such endeavours - and then the outcome is questionable.There is one thing, which will prove to be undebated - the US dollar is in for a big fall - not withstanding against what, why and when ... against GOLD for sure and soon - cb2 a nation of one (09/26/03; 14:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 109458) . . . I forgot to thank you for the honorable mention. When a dark knight, such as myself, sees his name mentioned, his first thought is that it's probably not honorable, and rightly so. Selfish as always, my primary reason for writing the essay had been to help gold go up. I posted Saturday morning, and sure enough, when the market opened in Sydney the following night, pog jumped six points at the open. Then yesterday you announced your winner, and I wasn't in the money, and pog plummeted almost immediately. I had done what I could however. And now having insulted all the real winners, my status as a dark knight is not in danger. (This doesn't mean that I withdraw my previous comments.) But last night after the dragon had been fed and the candles were out, and I was lying quietly in bed, I felt an uncomfortable feeling. At first I wasn't sure what it was, since I had not experienced it very often. On waking I decided it was probably humility. Nevertheless thanks again for the honorable mention. I needed it, believe me. CoBra(too) (09/26/03; 14:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109457) @BB Re SNB Gold Sales As usual you've set it in clear text - a lot better than I can ever do - Thank you - cb2 USAGOLD Daily Market Report (09/26/03; 14:08:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 109456) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.Funny how people get so excited on profit taking at "end of quarter" as Funds and Banks "Sex Up" portfolios with some "window dressing". Nothing new but not entirely unexpected either. The upward trend is firmly intact as the fundamentals have not changed. CoBra(too) (09/26/03; 14:01:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109455) @ Operative - re SNB Seems to me the PTB are chewing the same old bone - all the 284 tons and 130 tons are all part and parcel, as well as accounted for in the 1.300 tons "agreed", or as I'd rather put it blackmailed, to sell. Meantime, there still is a hassle as to whatever to do with the proceeds. When the Swiss finally will wake up to the fact that half of their national patrimony has been whisked away under a false and phony pretext all hell will be loose - though maybe too late to keep up the last (fiat)currency to a semblance of "as good as gold"!We can't have that, can we? Even as small as the SFR may be be ... pathetic, I say and you - cb2 silvercollector (09/26/03; 13:36:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109454) Hope EVERYONE has read this....explains the golden Chinese link http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm alkahulik (09/26/03; 13:11:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 109453) $380 Looking like $380 is the magic number!! Mr Gresham (09/26/03; 13:08:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109452) Primo Mogambo http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=3446&tp=c My kinda rant -- hilarious LOL in several spots -- but I'll give the most sombre passage here:"But these days my thoughts turn to less lustrous avenues, and I consider the social and societal ramifications, and I cringe to ponder them. Remember Pandora's Box and how all manner of afflictions escaped? Well, the collapse of a monetary system is sorta like that, only worse. Just as "everything is always about the money," in the future the lack of money will be all about everything, which is a nice juxtaposition of a phrase, and seems like it could mean almost anything, but you get my drift. There won't be any money. And lots of people will need lots of money just to stay alive, and they won't have it, and have no way of getting any, and they are going to get testy."G: It echoed my thoughts as I drove along the water, and saw several very old people out for a walk, one with a cane. "Good for them!, staying active," went my thought. "Pensions, bless 'em," went my next thought. You can guess well my question following that thought.Who will provide the overloaded hospice care that will allow the future elderly, poor and shorn of medical care, to depart with some shred of dignity? Federal_Reserves (09/26/03; 12:51:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 109451) Trickle Down > The bottom & middle of the economic income pyramid is melting in fire of outsourcing and cheap imports along with job cuts. > The rich bankers and fat cats have designed a system that is only good for the investment class, they have forgotten about> the health of the lower and middle class. > Its killing the economy. The top of the berg is still frozen for now, and doing well. But the fire is coming up fast. The recent > > tax cuts for the rich appear to be on the table for discussion given the sorry state of revenue collection. Who else has> the money to pay for the largesse of the Washington crowd who are spending money like drunken sailors... Folks> are starting to take note of the outrageous salaries of the big boy CEO's and stock exchange manipulators, while > being asked to take pay cuts because WMT workers are willing to take $10/hour and food stamps and now to compete> the big boy CEO's demand concessions of them while increasing their pay take and selling out inside in droves!> The whole SM looks to implode. Operative (09/26/03; 12:20:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 109450) Reforms on target: Japan's PM says ahead of expected national poll http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030926/1/3ehwr.html Friday September 26, 8:00 PM Reforms on target: Japan's PM says ahead of expected national poll Snips:Japan's economy has yet to bottom out and needs extra stimulus, the minister of economy, trade and industry, Shoichi Nakagawa, has stressed in apparent defiance of Koizumi's hope to curb public works spending and rein in national debt.In his speech, Koizumi pointed to a decline in the country's jobless rate from an all-time high, an improvement in private capital spending and the growth of the domestic economy in recent quarters as proof his policies were working."Structural reform is beginning to produce results," he said, adding: "The problem of huge bad loans at Japanese banks will be ended in the fiscal year 2004."Comment: I believe it! Really, I do! RECOVERY is around the corner and all bad loans will be squared from the books Operative (09/26/03; 12:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109449) Analysis: Russia holds cards at Camp David http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/09260000aaa057ba.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20News Analysis: Russia holds cards at Camp DavidWASHINGTON, Sept. 26 (UPI) -- A curious shift in tone pervades this weekend's meeting of two presidents, George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin, at Camp David. For the first time, arguably, in the 12 years since the collapse of communism -- or even back to the start of Mikhail Gorbachev's reform program in January 1986 -- America is coming cap in hand to Russia and not the other way around.Bush may even seek Putin's cooperation on keeping Russian oil exports flowing to offset the latest unexpected and unwelcome OPEC move to limit production. Over the past five years, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has repeatedly confounded the enthusiastic predictions of its demise by free market mavens to successfully keep oil prices at muscular levels.Ironically, the U.S. toppling of Saddam Hussein strengthened OPEC's hand by causing Iraqi oil production to collapse. It is still running at only around 55 percent of pre-war levels back in February and March. And this helps Russia, too, as one of the greatest oil exporters on earth.On joint policy against terrorism, Putin is in the stronger bargaining position too. He certainly wants Bush to support Russia's ongoing grim struggle against the Muslim separatists in Chechnya. But for all the talk of al-Qaida sympathizers training in the gorges of the Caucasus, it is the United States, "the Great Satan," that remains the prime target for al-Qaida and its myriad fellow jihad movements rapidly organizing around the world. Accordingly, right now the U.S. government needs Russian intelligence on the terror groups a lot more urgently than Russia need's America's.Today, and almost unremarked by the American media, Putin even has far closer relations with Saudi Arabia than the United States does. The two countries are, after all, dominant oil producers with mutual economic interests.Comment: Japan is not the only place experiencing tremors these days. One can almost feel the shaking as world power shifts and oil/dollar is one of those tetonic plates that is on the move. Cant wait to hear Belgian's take on this article, wherever he is at the moment. Ten Bears (09/26/03; 11:52:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109448) Druid You are welcome. J-Bullion (09/26/03; 11:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109447) China gold demand I just had a nice conversation at lunch about the coming Chinese gold market being open for the Chinese citizens. And get this, the people at lunch believe that demand will actually DROP! because as countries get more developed they move away from metal currencies to paper ones. I had 3 people laughing at me and not that idiotic statement. The ignorance in this country truly amazes me. Socrates964 (09/26/03; 11:46:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 109446) Swiss gold sales This is the phrase in the press release that intrigues me:"It will continue to follow its proven strategy of conducting the sales in regular transactions with prime institutions with which it already maintains business relations."I.e. the sale of the 284t is a done deal.Many people are scratching their heads as to why the Swiss authorities seem in such a hurry to abandon their reputation for financial good sense and probity. Is their hand being forced by a large financial institution that is in such poor health that it needs to be drip-fed gold?UBS was in the spotlight 12 months ago for securities fraud/sacking a salesman who told his clients to bail out of Enron/hiring a former head of Arthur Andersen to chair its audit committee/hiring the trading team of Enron with extreme haste. Since then, there appears to have been a news blackout. Anyone heard anything since? Operative (09/26/03; 11:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109445) 10 year bond yield at 4.02 Simply Amazing. I think October will bring some really big surprises in the markets. The gold bull will return with vengence. Operative (09/26/03; 11:29:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 109444) EU chief plays down missing millions http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/09260000aaa014c5.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20News EU chief plays down missing millionsLUXEMBOURG, Sept. 26 (UPI) -- The European Commission president is in damage control mode in the midst of a scandal involving millions of missing euros, a report said Friday.The London Telegraph said Romano Prodi brushed off the findings of a damning scandal report Thursday, declaring none of his top team would resign over the disappearance of millions of euros in slush funds and fictitious contracts.Prodi told Euro-MPs that "things went off the rails" at the European Union's data office, Eurostat in Luxembourg, but said he stood behind the three commissioners in the firing line, Spain's Pedro Solbes, Britain's Neil Kinnock and Germany's Michaele Schreyer."I began my term with the slogan 'Zero tolerance for fraud.' I stand by that pledge. But zero tolerance does not mean summary justice. It does not mean condemning people without a proper inquiry," Prodi said.Investigators have tracked the disappearance of 5 million euros (USD5.7 million) of taxpayers' money into black accounts, but fear worse as they continue to comb through suspect contracts.Question: How much gold would this buy?? Black accounts\slush funds\unreportable budgets...sounds like the USA. Operative (09/26/03; 11:21:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 109443) Swiss Gold Sales. http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3512668&newsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets ZURICH, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank will put another 284 tonnes of gold from excess reserves on the market by the end of September 2004 and sell 130 tonnes in the year after that, the central bank said on Friday. It said it had sold 886 tonnes since May 2000 under a 1999 accord that limits sales by major European central banks to a combined 2,000 tonnes by September 2004 when the accord expires. The SNB has routinely sold excess gold. It aims to dispose of 1,300 tonnes -- around half its original stockpile -- that it no longer needs to hold as reserves. The 284 tonnes to be sold over the next year will take the total to 1,170 tonnes, leaving 130 tonnes to be sold before the programme wraps up. "The SNB will sell the residual amount of 130 tonnes in the year following the expiry of the present agreement" among central banks, the SNB statement said. The bank said it would "follow its proven strategy of conducting the sales in regular transactions with prime institutions with which it already maintains business relations". Gold prices eased on the SNB's detailed sales plans.Comment: The boys with brown pants are putting on the full court press to get gold back under 'control'. How much of a panic mode are they in? Noticed yesterday, but did not post a link, to a story about plants producing gold from the soil. Desperate is as Desperate does eh? Fully expect a story over the weekend that the reason for the moons highly relflective surface is because it is really made of silver. Operative (09/26/03; 10:59:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109442) Census Reports Poverty Rate Up, Median Income Down for Second Straight Year http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAVALMD2LD.html Census Reports Poverty Rate Up, Median Income Down for Second Straight YearWASHINGTON (AP) - Poverty rose and income levels declined in 2002 for the second straight year as the nation's economy continued struggling after the first recession in a decade, the Census Bureau reported Friday. The poverty rate was 12.1 percent last year, up from 11.7 percent in 2001. Nearly 34.6 million people lived in poverty, about 1.7 million more than the previous year. Median household income declined 1.1 percent between 2001 and 2002 to $42,409, after accounting for inflation. That means half of all households earned more than that amount, and half earned less. The poverty rate rose again after having fallen for nearly a decade to 11.3 percent in 2000, its lowest level in more than 25 years. Income levels increased through most of the 1990s, then were flat in 2000 and fell the last two years. Experts had predicted rising unemployment last year and the still shaky economy would increase poverty and lower income for most people, even though the recession officially ended in November 2001. Even before the data was made public, House Democrats charged the Bush administration was trying to hide bad economic news by releasing the numbers on a Friday when people are paying more attention to the upcoming weekend. In previous years, the estimates were released on a Tuesday or Thursday. "Sounds like they're trying to bury the numbers where people won't find them," said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y. "This is another clear example of political manipulation of data by the Bush administration to avoid the glare of public scrutiny about the country's worsening economy." Census Bureau spokesman Larry Neal said the time change wasn't politically motivated. It was originally scheduled to be released this past Tuesday, he said, but was moved to Friday because statisticians asked for more time to process the numbers. "These are the official estimates of income and poverty in America and every debate on income and poverty for the next year will rehash them," Neal said. "The notion that we should, could or would suppress these numbers doesn't pass the laugh test." End of snipComment: Census Bureau attempts to pooh-pooh thier data and date of release. Anyone in the public relations dept of any company will tell you that you always release bad news on fridays. Always, if anyway possible. Studies have shown that most people have forgotten the bad news by monday. @ Tyro, thanks, just trying to do my part here. Rimh (09/26/03; 10:55:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109441) Ah, Norton..... This is not an advertising service. Please see the forum guidelines. Those of us who come here regularly would like to see this forum continue, but if it is abused, we could hardly blame our host for discontinuing it...Rimh Knallgold (09/26/03; 10:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 109439) Swiss Gold This probably means nothing,but those 130t of Gold the SNB wants to sell after sept04 WA expiration are exactly 10% of the original weight put on sale.It would have the same mileage (SwissFränkli) if Gold would run to 3000 in the meantime (would you rule it out?).Belgian (where is he btw?) keeps on insisting that the valuation matters more than the tonnage.And the 130t sounds again a bit like homeopathy.The SNB was the first CB to announce its plans for the time after WA1.In fact,the amount was already covered in WA1!So,basically,NO GOLD from Switzerland after sept2004.This is as nothing as nothing in a homeopathic medicine.I think we have to get used to the fact that CB's will be done with any relevant sales after fall 2004.They might get some needed cash with miniscule amounts of Gold,but those amounts won't influence the Goldmarket at all.Close to Freegold. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (09/26/03; 10:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 109438) Ask about BULLION at 1% over our cost, FREE shipping on 25oz. http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.