Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...
The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/26/2003 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) mikal (03/26/03; 23:36:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 100409) Clinton White House veteran, Brookings Institution fellow Robert Shapiro- preview? http://slate.msn.com/id/2080712/ Will the Iraq conflict cause the dollar to collapse?By Robert ShapiroPosted Wednesday, March 26, 2003, at 8:32 AM PT -Excerpts:"For months, the prospect, and now the reality, of war with Iraq have unnerved but not yet disrupted global currency markets. The odds are still small that the war will trigger a currency crisis. If it does, you'll see it in a fast-falling dollar; and given our current sour relations with much of the G-7, we might not be able to do much about it.In the international economy, more money is made or lost from currency movements or at least, more money is made or lost faster than any other way. Speculators such as hedge funds can sometimes make or lose a fortune overnight in currency bets, but the value of the dollar, the yen, and the euro are fundamentally driven by the normal transactions of the global economy.....The war gave the dollar a shove, but it's been sliding for more than a year down almost 15 percent since early 2002..... A falling dollar is bad news for a lot of people because greenbacks are also the global economy's principal medium of exchange. Foreign producers of oil and many other commodities, along with a goodly share of global manufacturing companies, prefer payment in dollars to Saudi riyals or South Korean wan. Foreign governments, or at least their finance ministries, also usually like a steady dollar, since dollars make up two-thirds of the reserves they hold to back up their own currencies. The 15 percent fall in the dollar has made a lot of people in a lot of places a little poorer.....The currency and interest-rate markets usually police such undersaving. If any other country ran up $1.55 trillion in trade deficits over the last five years, as the United States has, foreign lenders and investors would step back, expecting overconsumption to heat up inflation or underinvestment to drive down growth. As they back off, the value of the overspending country's currency would fall, interest rates would rise to attract lenders back, and growth would slow, until the country's imports fell enough and its exports rose enough to correct the trade deficit.....After three years of stock-market declines, stalled business investment, weakening consumer confidence, and low interest rates, the returns on investing in the United States look a lot less promising. The government's U-turn in fiscal policy is just as worrisome to global investors. The return of large budget deficits will keep the trade deficit growing by stimulating spending, and it will guarantee that public and private credit demand will far outstrip our own saving.....Given a bulging current-account deficit, slow growth, and a prospect of years of huge budget deficits, a bad war might just trigger a real currency crisis.....But a currency crisis could still hit us like a hurricane. Suppose two or three of the top 10 things that could go wrong for us in the war do go wrong and the liberation of Baghdad begins to look like the siege of Stalingrad. That kills hopes for a quick victory-bounce in the U.S. economy, and foreign investors accelerate their shift from U.S. to European securities. As the dollar sinks along with our stock market, more foreign investors rush to sell, and the declining dollar turns into a run and finally a rout.There are two ways to end a currency crisis like that: Hike interest rates far and fast to draw back capital, stalling economic growth as a consequence; or get the world's major central banks to intervene in the currency markets by buying dollars."Robert Shapiro, an undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration, is a fellow of the Brookings Institution and directs Sonecon, LLC, an economic consulting firm. Black Blade (03/26/03; 22:42:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 100408) Koehler sees war-linked recession http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/news/international/imf_recession.reut/index.htm IMF director says global recession possible if war pushes up oil prices, hits consumer sentiment.Snippit:BERLIN (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund has become more downbeat about global economic prospects because of the war in Iraq, according to an interview with its managing director, Horst Koehler, published Wednesday. In remarks to weekly German magazine Wirtschaftswoche, Koehler said even a short conflict would act as a barrier to recovery, while a global recession could not be ruled out if a long war pushed up oil prices and hit consumer sentiment. Previously, Koehler had indicated a short war could give a boost to growth by removing investor uncertainty, and that the Fund expected global growth to be above three percent this year. Koehler did not repeat that forecast. "We expect global growth this year of around three percent. This assumes a short conflict in Iraq and a gradual recovery in the second half," he was quoted as saying. Asked if he was concerned about the impact the decline in the dollar had on German exports, Koehler said, "No. A decline is the logical consequence of the United States large current account deficit. What we don't want is a dollar free fall. If that were to happen, then central banks and finance ministries would have to do something against it." Black Blade: I hate to burst Koehler's bubble but we are still in a recession according to the NBER. I find it odd that so many stick to the simpleton view that two or more successive quarters of negative GDP as the sole indicator of recessions. Of course he is quoted as previously giving the obligatory "recovery in the second half" comment. He is somewhat correct about the overvalued US dollar though, although his comment about "If that were to happen (dollar free fall), then central banks and finance ministries would have to do something against it" is disturbing. Black Blade (03/26/03; 22:26:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 100407) Big credit rating agencies face scrutiny http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313141892&p=1012571727108 Snippit: The international credit rating agencies, among the most influential arbiters of investment opinion on Wall Street, are to be investigated by Congress amid a clamour for the industry to be transformed after a series of credit market crises. A subcommittee of the House Financial Services committee will hold a hearing next month into whether Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, the three dominant credit rating agencies, offer investors unbiased advice. Rating agencies provide opinions on the credit-worthiness of corporate and sovereign borrowers. The agencies were excoriated after Enron collapsed at the end of 2001. They had rated the Houston energy company at "investment grade" until four days before it came crashing down, costing investors billions of dollars in losses.Black Blade: That these credit rating agencies are under investigation is not surprising. What is surprising is why it took so long. Now that most all corporations are buried deep in debt that will never be repaid and swimming in red ink I would have expected a long list of downgrades. Max Rabbitz (03/26/03; 22:25:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100406) Mikal My inference that Russia (KGB/mafia) may have been involved in 9/11 is not new. Not the Russian people. Some of the powers that be in Russia. It is a theory I hope is not true but to me explains some anomalies, such as the loss of Presidential codes for AirForce One. There is motive. In any case, it is not entirely without substance. I could be wrong but so could those who think George Bush was behind it all. It is my hope that the Russian people and those everywhere (U.S. included) can overcome what appears to be a growing criminal class gaining power. If not the western world that respects the individual will be but a quaint memmory.Perhaps time will reveal truth. mikal (03/26/03; 22:01:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100405) @M Rabbitz I checked my Krause book and you are indeed correct regarding certain dates of Roosters. Any implications of this are not considered by coin dealers, myself or most collectors. Past premiums on these coins notwithstanding, the bullion value itself makes them worth owning. And it is called the "lucky rooster" by many, is VERY popular and widely owned. Many dates are not restrikes nor are French angels (scholars was the original name and intent), Napoleans and others. A diversified portfolio should contain fractional pre-1933 gold coins, widely known and liquid. Most of all, happy investing and "good luck"! Black Blade (03/26/03; 22:00:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 100404) Open Forum Experiment Whew! I am glad that's over! Even I dreaded logging in after the first couple of hours. It really was getting out of hand. I had hoped that most participants would have kept posts confined to logical and reasoned opinions without succumbing to ridiculous emotional outbursts. Perhaps I expected too much. Unfortunately it quickly eroded into a "Kitco " clone. I try to put events in a context as it relates to the World around us and how those events affect our financial condition. Lately it is the Iraq War as it is being used as an excuse for why markets rise or why markets fall. Many gold analysts use it as an excuse for a "war premium" or now why it is depressing gold. I have stated before that the war is merely a sideshow event as far as precious metals are concerned. Sure some unexpected event in the war could cause some concern and the gold price spikes. But the main drivers in the precious metals markets are the weakening of the grossly overvalued US dollar and deteriorating global economy (which includes such things as the rising costs of energy for example). Also the increased demand on the physical side in various regions around the world, gold producers unwinding hedgebooks, the death of the "gold carry trade", and declining gold production are long term fundamentals supportive of gold. In the final analysis precious metals are portfolio insurance - it's money - it's the "anti-dollar" that protects investment portfolios during times of economic distress (like now). I know that sometimes I post an opinion or a comment on occasion that gets misinterpreted as something completely different from what was intended. Ah, the written word as opposed to speaking to another face to face where voice inflections and facial expressions do more to convey a message. As far as the War is concerned I didn't care one way or another about it. Now that we are involved I will hope for the best and pull for the "home team" as it were. As far as politics are concerned I really don't care for politicians no matter what stripe. We tend to have these periodic "popularity contests" and put mediocre people from the lower rungs of the evolutionary ladder and of questionable intellect in positions of power who suddenly become experts on "everything" by virtue of their new found position in society. I guess as I am neither a conservative or a liberal I just find the whole mess ….well, amusing. As far as religion is concerned, I just stay away from the subject. Besides Odin is quite busy these days. Now back to our good ole forum!- Black Blade Cor Tauri (03/26/03; 21:59:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 100403) steady- gold cover clause if gold goes down will the currency have to be reduced steady, I think this is one of the things ORO was angry about. Understand that ORO was/is vastly more intelligent than I am, so there is a danger that I've got this wrong.First The euro block is holding a gold reserve equal to X% of their currency and the euro block has a strong socialistic tendency. They want to create euros to pay for social programs. If gold price in euro increases, then they can issue more euros, to pay for all the nice programs they want.If gold price in euro were to decrease, they would have very bad problems. Since by now it should be apparent that governments can and will control the market price of things, guess which way the EU will want the price of gold to go. Further even if the price does not cooperate, they can simply print euros and buy gold to add to their reserves. This would tend to cause the price of euros to decrese vs gold. Which is what they wanted. Consider that with the establishment of the Euro, a european "law" went into effect, "Gold shall rise".Now if this talk of a gold cover for a new or existing US dollar is true, then it would mean that the dollar block was essentially doing the exact same thing. Considering that the US has a strong socialistic tendency and desires to pay for ambitious social and military programs....With the establishment of a US dollar gold cover regime (which has not officially happened yet), consider that an american "law" would go into effect, "Gold shall rise".It seems in hindsight that Another and FOA KNEW that the structure of the Maastricht treaty would inevitably lead to this effect on gold. Hence their confidence and assurance. ORO, in hindsight figured it all out with their help. It unwise for a simple man to attempt to weigh the intellect of his betters, but I tell you this, I think that ORO had the sharper mind. ORO may have understood that the US would follow in this path, or the dollar would become irrealavent. Either way ORO pointed out the long term consequence of this "dynamic". There will be a bubble in gold. The day shall come when the price of gold is so high, exceeding any reasonable value, that a collapse in the price of gold would eventually have to occure. I'm not talking from these levels, but a long time from now. ORO understood the flaws in the existing monetary system, understood what the replacement would be, how the existing system would likely collapse, and the flaws that would eventually collapse the system that would replace the existing system. It is said that an ounce of gold buys a good mens suit, or a well made revolver, in any period of time regardless of the prices of gold, suits and revolvers.Imagine a time when an ounce of gold will buy 10 or 100 suits. And all the world believes it will soon buy even more. This is the world that ORO may have foreseen. So he of courss concurred with FOA and Another, buy gold, do it now. But ORO seemed to love the "free markets" and forsaw that eventually perhaps 10 to 80 years from now there would be a horrific crash in the value of gold. Just as paper money is about to be discredited for a very long time, ORO seemed to lose all sense of measure of his words when he tried to explain to us that because of the euro system, one day the dream of central bankers would come true, gold would be discredited finally for a very long time.Understand, I am not ORO or any of the others, I may not have true understanding, further ORO may simply have been wrong. But consider that between 255-400 per ounce of gold, this is a price that will likly be multiplied by factors that truly are unreasonable. ORO did not seem to suggest what would replace the system hence. To trace an outline of the general trend of the workings of the monetary systems for the next several generations, is enough to earn my gratitude. I hope my sons marry good wives and have children that are able to discren when that time comes what to do. I hope they find and heed someone like FOA, Another and ORO. I hope my sons survive the next few years.Best Regards mikal (03/26/03; 21:49:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 100402) @M.Rabbitz "Islamists were responsible for 911." Have you been following the thread of discussion here tonight? It is always a good idea.Maybe too, check the preceding posts to gauge what might need to be said, and there's usually plenty. But say hello and bring a joke at any time. Most of us check out our political and religious dogmas at the door, as MK again requested tonight, retrieving these as we exit the forum. Max Rabbitz (03/26/03; 21:11:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 100401) Midnight is coming soon to Mountain time So....... here is my cheap shot at the French.Boycott French Rooster gold coins! Not because the poor besotted French have provided cover and delay for the evil Saddam but because these coins are not what people think they are. According to a footnote in Krause World gold coins 4th edition (pg 319) all dates from 1907-1914 have been officially restruck. I know of no method to distinguish originals. These coins may not be as safe as Angels or other clearly pre-1933 coins during a possible gold confiscation. After reading Ferdinand Lipps "Gold Wars" and following current events I have come to the conclusion that a confiscation of gold is very possible, perhaps first only as a patriotic act like in South Korea a few years ago, but then mandatory. Trail Guide was right, favor pre-1933, be one step ahead of the rest and avoid black markets. Don't buy roosters if you can find something else.One other thing. Islamics were responsible for 9/11. This is not in question. I've read it all and the other "theories" come up way short. True, Islamics may not have been alone. There is credible evidence of State support. No not us. Not the disfunctional new world order looking for cheap oil and world dominance. Not just the Saudi Wahabi. Think. There are other powers out there. Who would benefit from a Jihad against the west? Someone wanting to get even? Somebody good at chess? Just my opinion,Cowboy Max, favoring pre-1933 gold physical mikal (03/26/03; 21:00:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 100400) @Silvercollector Good thoughts. Do you think the reason's for gold's coming rise to prominence will be known only to a small, small percentage of the world population? Because of ignorance and distractions, media entertainment, censorship and disinformation? This would facilitate a transitional economy that would preserve the power structure, assets and criminal amnesty for TPTB when TSHTF collapsing the western economic system. Impaling or invalidating both capitalism and our dollar, the abandonment of U.S. patronage by foreigners will likely be within your 6 month timeframe, IMHO. Events and opinions will be both be "guided" using emergency powers, rationing, media and raw control.Many intellectuals will no longer speak up about the avalanche of errors that led to the crisis, as criminals will continue to hold positions of power for many, many more years. But gold is not something that desires the spotlight, though like Gandi it will become famous while remaining inscrutible. Just as the economic causes and effects involving gold are as far away from the masses as the meaning of basic money terms like inflation, productivity and savings. steady (03/26/03; 20:33:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100399) question re the gold cover clause say the gold cover clause at some point gets reestablished? and from what ive seen here a rising pog will alow for a expansion in a partially backed gold currency. gold up currency expansion, what happens if gold falls currency reduction? who gets to decide teh date they decide to measure golds increase, will it be quarterly and if so cant they manipulate gold price the wek before or what? the last question im not to concerned about but if gold goes down will the currency have to be reduced or what mechanism takes care of that when gold falls? silvercollector (03/26/03; 20:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 100398) ...before tonight's cut off..... I wrote a note the other day which I did not post....it was way, way beyond the scope of this forum.I wrote a note tonight which I deleted because it was also beyond the scope of this forum.I will condense the several pages into a simple paragraph which follows.I have read half a dozen newspapers each and every day for a year now and they do not touch on the fundamental issues at hand in the world today. I have watched CNN and MSNBC for several months and it too does not explore the fundamental issues facing the world today. I have read this esteemed forum for several years and it misses a critical point day in, day out.The critical point , my friends, lies beneath the source of common view. It is buried beneath layers and layers of propaganda, beneath layers and layers of lies, deception, mistruths, fabrications and so-called perceptions.Our views of everything and anything, and I will stop at gold, the matter at hand, will reveal itself in the coming month(s) as 'dollars' wage war with the world.The TRUTH will prevail. Thankfully after years of waiting and wondering we shall be privy to ITS decision before the next equinox. Gonlyold (03/26/03; 19:30:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 100397) Before Today Times Out I guess after the cutoff today I won't be able to say this...I like Cowboys too. But I think we should impeach the cowboy. 21mabry (03/26/03; 19:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 100396) (No Subject) Aristotle or Socratese one of you athenians answered my post I am sorry if I got it wrong I know it was not plato.I visited the NEW YORK FED once,I took the tour and saw the gold vault and saw some gold through the bars.Someone I know whose been In the metals buisness for years insists most of it was removed years ago and is no longer there.It was all other countries gold stored there during WWII for ''safe keeping'' the U.S. must of not wanted to give it back. Daniel Druff (03/26/03; 19:06:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 100395) Is there a chartist in The Castle? The intra-day price movement of the HUI was very impressive, imho. Have we actually seen the bottom of the most recent correction of the shares? Perhaps the Fed has decided to delay the buying of a few gold mines which would certainly give the Dollar some Deep Storage cover. In a fiat credit system, if you have control of the printing presses you can do pretty much as you please, as long as your associates sanction your actions. Just as a reminder, Sir Alan has mentioned "buying gold mines". Do we remember this comment or am I just theorizing?Buena Fe:I'm so sorry that I can't respond to your most recent posting spree;) Maybe next year.The very best to you,DD 21mabry (03/26/03; 18:59:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 100394) (No Subject) Aristotle I do appreciate your answering my post earlier.If I understand you correctly, you feel the euro is not capable of replacing the dollar on a worldwide economic scale, therefore gold or silver would be the only thing that could compete with the dollar.would a gold backed euro or other currency be a direct threat to the dollar.If so what countries or block of countries do you feel has the resources to compete.Is a petroleum backed currency a possibility obviously it could not be redeemed but in some form would this be possible, maybe an opec dollar. thnx MK for relaxing the rules it provided myself a much needed outlet and interesting posts to ponder. a nation of one (03/26/03; 18:51:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 100393) to the administration of this forum I don't think there is anything wrong with you deleting posts, or trying to direct content. You have deleted some of mine. That's alright. They needed to be deleted. There is not a book , magazine, or newspaper published in the world that does not conform to its publisher's requirements. And anyway, everyone needs to have their shoots pruned once in a while. That's the only way people learn what is allowed and what is not allowed. I don't think your efforts are heavy handed either. You aren't trying to supress information or opinion. You allow people pretty much to say what they are thinking. Your subject is gold. it seems reasonable to me that you would want to keep it that way. There is also not a marching band or symphony orchestra in existence where you can just play whatever note you want to. Every musician has to play the part he is given. It only makes sense that you would be free to have your website the way you want it. After all, who is paying for it? You are. I think that means you get to call the tune. MK (03/26/03; 18:20:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100392) Remember this? I feel justified in reposting this from March 16th:"It is a very difficult job to monitor this forum and no one here really wants to do it -- myself included. However, if this is allowed to spin out of control as other forums have, then we put ourselves on a path which leads inevitably to this forum being shut down. So, in the end, the management here assumes the responsibility and not without trepidation. USAGOLD does not have a position on the possible war in Iraq (although as private citizens we all have opinions). USAGOLD supports neither side -- for or against -- and as far as our face to the world outside, we do not want to become known as a place where adherents TO EITHER SIDE can post their positions, rhetoric and the rest without restriction, a place known for its hard-edge and angry positions. In other words, we do not want to become just another political web site pushing someone's, anyone's, agenda -- or even opposing agendas in some sort of balanced format. *****I see nothing but a process of escalation once it starts -- a process that could ultimately destroy this forum.*****My remedy is simple and direct:Avoid the whole thing entirely. Keep it simple. Keep the subject where people who visit here want it to be. There are a hundred places to go on the internet to read about the war. Let this be a place where that war is kept within a context of practical action, a place where people can visit knowing that the objective is as Boungiorno so aptly stated it: ". . .to nudge us into focus on the main issue before the Round Table, one which we may individually and collectively do something to remedy. That issue, of itself, should more than adequately satisfy the great intellects here gathered."In this way, serious investors can view this as a refuge from the storm (as gold is a refuge from the storm) -- a safe place where good men and women can gather in confidence and comraderie no matter where they stand on the war and not feel threatened -- a place where you are not forced to declare a side, a place where your gut doesn't tighten up everytime you click on USAGOLD at your favorite's page. Leave your pure politics at the door, come-in, read, learn, allow yourself to be taken to the next level (particularly if you have assets to protect) and then, if you so choose, retrieve your pure politics on the way out. "--Let me add a short postscript:From my perspective there is only one real issue: An uncertain world. The net effect of that uncertainty necessitates gold ownership for portfolio insurance purposes -- no matter what the price does. Economic and political uncertainty will be present in our lives long after the Iraq question is settled and we've move on. Whether or not you believe the war is justified remains a side issue from this perspective. Inescapably the real issues for all of us is how this war will affect the world economy in general and our investment portfolios in particular. By the way within that context, I just came across a report from David Fuller, the highly respected long-time London-based investment analyst. In it he says that gold will rise to $1500 over the next ten to fifteen years. That won't happen in a vacuum. We ask only that in your discussions you bring the subject back to its pertinence to gold, economics, markets and the world of finance. A simple discipline but one that will take us a long way. Buena Fe (03/26/03; 18:18:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 100391) (No Subject) someone once told me that religion was a curse, guess we just proved it.OK OK I'LL SHUT UP Buena Fe (03/26/03; 18:15:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 100390) (No Subject) mussah been a sand storm round hereBB you still dig up those energy bars for us?black gold Buena Fe (03/26/03; 18:13:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 100389) posted last one before i saw de end thanks for the interlude MKyou da boss round heregot gold and gettin more Buena Fe (03/26/03; 18:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 100388) Daniel Druff (03/26/03; 13:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 100360) that was not a wisecrack, it was the truth, besides he doesn't need any of us to defend HimHe is my Lord (by choice)are you anointed?PS Christ is not His last name Goldilox (03/26/03; 18:10:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100387) Nigerian Oil slowdown http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2887557.stm MK- Thank you-Both for the break and the "breakfast", so to speak. I truly appreciate this forum and your generosity in hosting it.-GLNow, back to the business of markets and their effects on [our] wealth.********************snippit:Nigeria Rattles Oil Markets Oil prices have jumped sharply, partly reversing the 30% falls seen since the beginning of March. US crude oil prices rose 66 cents to $28.63 while London's benchmark had gained 47 cents to $25.2835 a barrel. Most traders are focusing on Iraq, potentially the world's second-biggest petroleum producer, where initial hopes of a quick war and return to oil markets have been called into question. And oil prices have been given further impetus by social unrest in oil-producing regions of Nigeria, which has already removed more than 800,000 barrels per day - more than 1% of global demand - from the market. The deteriorating situation in Warri, the main city in Nigeria's Delta region, has forced international oil firms such as Shell, ChevronTexaco and TotalFinaElf to reduce output to a trickle. "Two factors are influencing the markets: the potential for Iraqi oil to remain unavailable for longer than expected and the loss of Nigerian oil exports," said analyst Adam Sieminski in a report for Deutsche Bank. -end snippit a nation of one (03/26/03; 18:03:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 100386) Reply to Waverider (03/26/03; 11:24:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 100347) You ask: "A nation of One - what happens when 280 million Arabs invite themselves into the kitchen?"--I am not sure in this case. But the result would probably not be kosher. MK (03/26/03; 18:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100385) Open Forum Closed Somewhere in the Castle:Gandalf. Gandalf. Wake up you sleepy old wizard. I have a question. Have you've been casting spells of late. Have you found a way to make the hour longer? This has been the longest three days in this forum's history. A long, deep, dark, shivering night. . . . .What's that you say, my wizardrous friend? You point out that it's soon to be midnight somewhere on this planet? That it is. You're a genius -- a truly magical and gifted advisor. So we shall do it. Summon the scribes. Let's get it down on paper. The Open Forum is now Closed. What's that? Please don't mutter like that. "It's about time. . . ." you say. Hah!! Why didn't you bring up this business about it being midnight somewhere sooner. . . . . .You say you tried to bring this up yesterday. I don't recall . . . . . . Voices fade. . . . . .The castle quiets. . . .- - -Oh, well, live and learn, as they. I think it is more than evident now why we run this forum the way we do, and I don't think we have to make any arguments here about the whole issue for the forseeable future. As our sitemaster pointed out so succinctly, the behavior here over the past three days speaks volumes, and more forcibly than any rhetoric I can muster. And it all happened in just three short days. Think about it. Just think if we would have let it go on for a week. And the funny thing about it is that I can't remember anything written here about the war in Iraq. Not a thing. I was going to write a long post about this whole affair, but decided I don't really need to. As I pointed out in the Guidelines for the Respectful Poster, this mighty oaken table is sturdy but it is simultaneously fragile, and if you don't understand that after what we just went through, then you're never going to get it. We all play a role in the success of this table. And we all gain from it as long as it serves a useful purpose. Onward, my friends. I don't see any need to let this thing go til midnight. It's over now. The rules are once again in force and now I think even our most vocal critics know why. In an odd sort of way, it was time well spent. 21mabry (03/26/03; 17:55:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 100384) (No Subject) If your a dictator and have to flee your country,and you have time to only grab one suitcase.It would be a suitcase full of gold.I would bet all dictators have those suitcases packed. Goldilox (03/26/03; 17:26:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100383) V-anon Au-some, that post was exactly as your handle portrays. I am amazed that MK's generaous gift of tolerance has elicted such a great amount of INTOLERANCE, and I cannot WAIT to get back to business-as-usual.Now, if the self-proclaimed prophets will do their homework, they'll find that their holy writ predicts that the faithful will be "called" out of the Earth seven years prior to the final battle.So, if this IS the final battle, those holier-than-thou meatheads must be left behind with the rest of us! Oh well, if I were God, I wouldn't let all those snot-nose whiners in my garden, either. mikal (03/26/03; 17:14:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 100382) @R.Powell From your link: "The great laws of society are the laws of nature." I LIKE it. Can you tell I'm not a lawyer or a bureaucrat? I don't need to worry when the budget cuts REALLY start. After a few years the major powers will see just how much government and red tape they can do without.As for the "laws of nature", I'm sure Paine didn't have this cliche in mind: "Eat or be eaten." mikal (03/26/03; 17:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100381) @Au-some Re: msg# 100377LOL, straight on the mark! R Powell (03/26/03; 16:47:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 100380) Copied from Kitco http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/paine_war_govt.htm Some thoughts on government, war and taxes from Thomas Paine. Thoughts as relevant as the day Paine wrote them, maybe more so. Daniel Druff (03/26/03; 16:46:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 100379) sector "BTW if we aren't there for oil why are contracts being let left and right? Contracts that won't hold under International law...The Hague and all that lawyering stuff." sectorCome on, Mike...quit teasing me. You're starting to see normal everyday business decisions as a giant evil conspiracy. It is true that we live in a sin cursed world but why accuse everyone outside of the GATA mindset of being cheats? Friends of the establishment get the deals...so what? Of course we're making plans to manage the oil assets of Iraq...Sadam is otherwise indisposed at the moment. Someone has to do the paper work.Thank you,DD sector (03/26/03; 16:43:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 100378) US admits '8,000 Iraqis captured' claim was false http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_764618.html US admits '8,000 Iraqis captured' claim was falseThe US military has been forced to admit the 8,000 Iraqi soldiers they claimed to have captured last week are now battling British forces.Iraq's 51st Infantry Division, which has about 200 tanks, is now engaged in the southern city of Basra.The Pentagon is claiming the confusion is the work of the Fedayeen Saddam - Saddam Hussein's most trusted paramilitary unit.The US is accusing it of organising the tactic of posing as civilians and faking surrenders.Defence Department officials reported on Friday that they had won the surrender of the entire 51st Division, a regular Iraqi army unit deployed in southern Iraq to defend Basra, the nation's second largest city.On Saturday, officials backtracked, saying they had only taken a couple of commanders and the rest of the men had "melted away" - a term used for those who laid down their arms and returned home.On Monday there were reports that one of the "commanders" turned out to be a junior official who misrepresented his rank in hopes of getting better treatment.Then on Tuesday, British forces reported a tank battle with elements of the 51st outside of Basra. Asked about the confusion, the Pentagon said the division's equipment was taken over by the Fedayeen and possibly members of Saddam's Republican Guard, his best-trained troops."Some of their equipment may have been used by the Fedayeen perhaps, or other folks that Fedayeen brought with them," a Pentagon spokesman said.Story filed: 07:09 Wednesday 26th March 2003++++++++++++++++++++++Speechless. Will this be an extended war? Will an ectended war affect the economy? Is the price of gold related to the economy? Au-some (03/26/03; 16:40:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 100377) Open Forum 1. Have you ever decided to stop being vitriolic for a week or so, but only lasted for a couple of days?2. Do you wish people would mind their own business about your vitriol – stop telling you what to say?3. Have you ever switched to sarcasm to make yourself seem less bitter?4. Do you envy people who can speak and make their point without alienating everyone within earshot?5. Do you tell yourself you can be "nice" anytime you want to even though you call people names when you don't mean to?6. Have you ever felt that your life would be better if you didn't always call people stupid? If you answered yes to any of these questions you are without doubt a hopeless vitriolic. Do us a favor and help yourself - call Vitriolics Anonymous. Now. Black Blade (3/26/03; 15:58:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 100376) Longer war increases market risks http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B560CDE07%2D4D9F%2D448A%2D9067%2D9A8F2BB9C299%7D&siteid=mktw Snippit: SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - The financial world's obsession with war headlines increases the risks of an auditorium-clearing market decline, market strategists say. "For investors who are long, our analysis of option prices suggests that the downside risks are greater than the upside potential, and the war rally, which has not been fully reversed, only reinforces that," says Stanford University economics professor Eric Zitzewitz. "So in that sense, the stakes are higher." The almost 4 percent decline in equity indexes earlier this week was an example of "when the very best-case scenario -- a complete walkover victory, with mass surrender and no guerilla warfare after the fact - begins to appear much less likely," Zitzewitz says. "Speed is of the essence," says longtime currency analyst Barbara Rockefeller at Rockefeller Treasury Services in Connecticut. "The news of an uprising in Basra boosted the dollar on the fast-war idea, while setbacks in clearing the harbor and elsewhere (delaying humanitarian deliveries) was dollar-negative." Rockefeller, who is fast becoming one of the most accurate sentiment indicators for the fluctuations of financial markets in time of war, says, "Nobody is happy about war stories being the prime mover and shaker, but we have no choice. What's emerging is that the dollar rally could fizzle entirely if we don't get the scent of victory, and PDQ."Those who see the dollar, and with it most U.S. stocks, resuming their decline are looking past the war. Such skeptics (and I am one of them) base their outlook on financial developments such as disastrous first-quarter profits, accelerating deficit spending in Washington and a current account shortfall that is running 5 percent of economic output. "Stocks are still trading at historically high multiples, with the S&P 500 (SPX) trading at 30 times current GAAP earnings, 22 times 2003 estimates and nearly 20 times 2004's estimates," says Mike Darda, economist at Polyconomics Inc. in New Jersey. "Viewed another way, total equity market capitalization as a multiple of after-tax profits remains more than 30 percent over its historical mean." Now, with the Senate reducing the size of the Bush tax cut to $325 billion from $700 billion, Darda, a supply-side economist, says the risks of a steep stock-market decline are increasing. Black Blade: If one were to focus on the stock market fundamentals then the picture is very grim indeed. That would require that the market face reality – something Wall Street pinheads and CNBC carnival barkers have been loathe to do. R Powell (3/26/03; 15:55:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 100375) BIS e-mail information // target word GOLD Personal notification for Richard Powell from the BIS e-mail alert (http://www.bis.org/alert.htm) on 26.03.2003 19:44 (GMT)************************************************************************Your current news on phrase "gold(any word)" at a glance:************************************************************************2 new document(s) found since 19.03.2003: 1. Eva Srejber: Future scenarios for housing finance (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (26.03.2003 14:27)Speech by Ms Eva Srejber, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Gävle, 19 March 2003.http://www.bis.org/review/r030325e.pdf (PDF, 46167 bytes)..well. The low interest rates together with the search for safe investments spread to other asset markets. The price of gold increased, and there was a rise in housing prices in several countries as households took advantage of the...2. Financial Stability Forum reviews vulnerabilities and efforts to strengthen the international financial system (BIS Press Releases 26 Mar 2003) (26.03.2003 18:33)FSF Press Release issued after their meeting in Berlin on 24-25 March 2003.http://www.bis.org/press/p030326.htm (HTML, 40279 bytes)..SDR to replace gold franc at the BIS (10 Mar) List of 2003 press releases TownCrier (3/26/03; 15:48:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 100374) In case nobody believed my msg# 100356, here is an excerpt of yet another email I received only moments ago... ------BEGIN------"Congratulations on your recently turning your formerly fine gold forum into a beer-slinging redneck free-for-all. I will no longer be doing any business with nor reading of Centennial web sites or materials. I can find this sort of garbage anywhere on the internet, and feel it is very unfortunate that you have chosen to let your forum degrade to these levels."-----END------I hope some of you "free speech at all costs" holdouts are beginning to understand what we have been up against in striking a balance to offer this forum.When the gardener lets the weeds have their way, the desired fruits and vegetables are choked off and available to no one -- directly or at the market. By no account can it even be called a garden anymore. The gardener himself also potentially wastes away from malnutrition, and may thus be made unable to give it another try next season.For anyone who would like to see this Forum remain intact, I think this free-for-all period is publically making a more convincing case for our past management efforts ("weeding") than any of our past attempts to explain it ever could. I could also be wrong about this, but I think not. Benign neglect almost always backfires.R. sector (3/26/03; 15:44:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 100373) @Daniel Still looking for beef It's not with manipulation, [Maybe]oil or gold and politics BTW if we aren't there for oil why are contracts being let left and right? Contracts that won't hold under International law...The Hague and all that lawyering stuff.Talk about misdirection...even school children know this is all about pumping Saddam's oil to try and pump the US economy up.The propaganda machine has Saddam as a brutal dictator eating innocent babies for breakfast, responsible for the abduction of Elizabeth Smart to be sold into Baath Party white girl slavery AND the downing of TWA 800 too. Wait long enough and we'll see that his fingerprints were mysteriously found on Elvis' overdose medicine bottle.To imagine that the US has no interest in Iraq's oil is to deny Colin Powell's statement that "The US would hold the Iraqi oil "In trust" for the Iraqi people".Just like the US held the native American people's resources "In trust", the British held the Iraqi people's oil "in trust" during the 1920s martial law occupation, and just like Franklin Roosevelt held the 1934 [Gold Reserve Act] confiscated Gold "In trust" for the American people where we now carry paper.Dan...propaganda is effective. Witness CNBC's $5Trillion record [Riding the SM down] of disinformational success.Sentient beings don't buy the WMD thing and Iraq didn't drop the WTC towers either. We have a far better beef with the Saudis on that one and records show that the US actually went to them and issued threats in the weeks after 9/11.Is he a bum needing a bunker-buster? Sure. That we haven't resorted to that inexpensive solution is further proof that it's about oil. If he's dead from a BB we don't get the oil. We need an occupying army for that hence the invasion.Anyway...if Saddam has these dirty little things he surely won't use them going forward as he is winning the propaganda war handily. All the talk about found suits and red lines is great fun for him as it causes our guys allot of needless angst and discomfort donning NBCs. Why blow a big psywar lead just for a few chems? He's too smart for that.In the end we won't find any unless we put them there ourselves...and that finding will be quickly challenged by UNSCOM specialists.We need our guys and girls home and Saddam bottled up with an army of 20,000 lilliputian inspectors attaching strings everywhere.Gold and politics...taste great...less filling. Black Blade (3/26/03; 15:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 100372) War Obscures Grim Earnings Season http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10076479.html Snippit:Corporate earnings warnings are more negative than they've been in a year, but with all eyes on the war, the trend might go unnoticed -- until the war obsession fades, that is. Although the so-called earnings confessional season hasn't yet run its course, first-quarter warnings are significantly worse than they have been in any of the last five quarters, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. Analysts worry that if earnings don't show any meaningful improvement soon, recent gains in the market -- fueled by the onset of war -- won't be sustained. The Dow has climbed almost 12% from its March 11 intraday low, and the Nasdaq has jumped 11% from that time. "Clearly, the market has rabbit ears on for news events out of the war, but when that is behind us, we'll go back to focusing on the same things," said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James. "Most people still haven't caught on that this is not the typical business cycle. We don't have sufficient final demand to pull the economy forward, and the earnings aren't enough to energize the capital spending cycle." Black Blade: Want to bet the CNBC spin will be "beat analysts earnings estimates"? After three years of recession I don't see any improvement. Today I listened to Bob Pisani on CNBC as he said "the markets don't appear to be focused on the fundamentals" in reference to the sliding stock markets. Now come on Bob, since when have the stock market players been interested in market fundamentals? Wild Hare (03/26/03; 15:33:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 100371) euro, oil, dollar http://www.gulufuture.com/news/eurozone_war030323.htm My apologies if this has already been posted.Summary: Why is George Bush so hell bent on war with Iraq? Why does his administration reject every positive Iraqi move? It all makes sense when you consider the economic implications for the USA of not going to war with Iraq. The war in Iraq is actually the US and Europe going head to head on economic leadership of the world. Daniel Druff (03/26/03; 14:53:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 100370) sector "sector (03/26/03; 14:22:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 100367)@DanielD Speaking of Rants...Where's Your Beef?You don't like political commentary? Please explain to this board by giving at least three salient points in each of your responses:(1) How gold is NOT a political metal(2) How oil and the US war for it is NOT related to US macroeconomics and hence related to gold and,(3) How GATA has been wrong about the manipulated gold market"sector, please...do the misdirection-thing somewhere else. It's Bill Murphy's political commentary which I can not abide.(1) Come on my good man, this is a waste of time. The dimmest of economic wits knows that The Federal Reserve System is political. Your #1 is not a good question and makes an assumption...a dishonest assumption. Not edifying, imho. (2) Again, you are incorrect. This war is not about oil. It's about freedom and our relative safety. You are free to tink as you will but you're wrong. BTW, oil is on the way out, or haven't you heard.(3) Who says GATA is wrong about the manipulated gold price? Of course the establishment is controlling the price of gold. WOW, what a news worthy piece of information. What in the world do you expect them to do? Please get real, you're better than this.Thank you,DD USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (03/26/03; 14:29:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 100369) Speaking of Swiss francs... Put a REAL Foundation Under Your Portfolio http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.