Gold Today!
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/26/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
EagleOne
(04/26/02; 23:55:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74426)
Black Blade
Matthew Simmons, in his Water and Energy presentation last February, listed the options he thought most likely to be the source for the future generation of electrical power.
*Snip* The world needs to continue to pursue the development of wind, solar, tidal and wave energy. All will have a role to play as our energy resources get further strained. None of these sources can realistically become genuine replacements for our core energy supplies. It is intellectually dishonest to pretend otherwise. None of these sources, from all we know, have the ability to scale to a size that could accommodate the total energy
needs of a region like New England, let alone become a substitute for our main sources of energy supply.
Electricity use can grow as rapidly as new power plants can be constructed but these plants need real energy input for kilowatts to be created. If few new dams can be built,
and coal gets restricted due to environmental concerns, and growth in natural gas supplies is suspect, the only real hope to grow electricity supply on any meaningful scale
is to return to nuclear power in a big way. Whether this can happen, given all the fears which nuclear engenders, will be a critical issue for the world to resolve. Absent a return to nuclear, coal is the only alternative. Without coal growth, there are real limits to the world's ability to grow electricity use. *unsnip*
I have heard somewhere that it was possible to convert coal into a slurry that could be then transported by current pipelines to refinerys and other users. Have you heard of this and where do you rate coal in out energy future?
Black Blade
(04/26/02; 23:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74425)
Blanchard Gold Bear Report and Other Investment Blunders
Remember that report from the Blanchard crowd? It was a report that detailed the demise of Gold as an investment and even stated that Gold prices would crash. I don't suppose that they will admend the report though.
Other blunders include the BoE Gold auctions where the losses are piling up fast in the face of rising Gold prices. Then there is the SJ Kaplan blunder. Bailing out of Gold shortly before the the strong rallies and putting the proceeds into NASDAQ shares just prior to the renewed NASDAQ crash does not appear to be a winning strategy in my opinion.
A lot of investment houses will be likely to work the phones over the weekend in order to pump and prime the market for Monday and attempt to push down the POG. The rally in Gold is likely to continue even with a few bumps along the way. The stock markets are crashing, the bond markets are pathetic, and there are very few viable investments left. Even the "real estate bubble"/"housing bubble" is bursting (down 8.3% in March).
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/26/02; 22:01:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74424)
U.S. Can't Produce The Oil It Will Need
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-vpfre262683940apr26.story?coll=ny%2Dviewpoints%2Dheadlines
Snippit:
IT'S TIME for a reality check on energy policy.
Politicians are fond of claiming that increased domestic oil production can restore energy "independence," but anyone who actually believes those claims is living in a world of self-delusion. U.S. energy independence hasn't been physically possible since the days when Elvis was still singing and, if we're talking about oil, it won't ever be possible again.
Black Blade: There is plenty of Oil in North America, the question should be is there enough "Cheap Oil". Yes we have the Athabasca Tar Sands, various untapped Oil fields, and Oil shales. The real question is how much is economically viable and at what price. The fuel of the future is Natural Gas and possibly Nuclear.
Black Blade
(04/26/02; 21:39:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74423)
Oil Prices Rise on U.S.-Saudi Relations Fears
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,51130,00.html
Snippit:
LONDON — Oil prices over the world rose on Thursday ahead of a meeting between Saudi Arabia and the United States amid fears that their strategic relationship could be threatened by the deepening crisis in the Middle East. In a pivotal meeting with President George W. Bush on Thursday, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah was expected to voice Arab anger at Israeli incursions into Palestinian areas of the West Bank.
Black Blade: And so it goes, Oil is up over $27.00/bbl today.
Oh yes, I saw Louis Rukeyser's pathetic pleas for the investor to dive back into the stock markets. Senility and incontinence have caught up to the "mummy" as some call him. Meanwhile he still marches out the shills to tout stocks and scream that everything is OK while the investing public is all wrong – so much for Malkiel's(?) efficient market theory.
Black Blade
(04/26/02; 21:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74422)
The Glitter of Gold - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:
As an asset class, gold has been forgotten, discarded, dishoarded, and disowned. For more than two decades, gold has been ignored by most investors. While stocks were experiencing the bull market of the century, gold was in a severe bear market. From its peak of $850 an ounce on January 21, 1980, gold would fall throughout the following two decades, reaching a low of $255.675 an ounce on August 31, 1999. In September of 1999, an historic agreement was made in Washington where central banks agreed to limit the future sale of gold. Central bank gold sales and gold leasing had depressed the price of the precious metal since the beginning of 1995. It became part of the US strong dollar policy of the Clinton Administration. Since that time gold has gone through a series of brief rallies, but mostly declines until the spring of last year.
Black Blade: Puplava tackles Gold and the Stock Market tonight.
YGM
(04/26/02; 20:05:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 74421)
Then And Now....The Parallels Between Bubble of /29 and Now......
http://econ161.berkeley.edu/TCEH/Slouch_Crash14.html
-Excerpt-
The Great Crash
The U.S. stock market boomed in the 1920s. Prices reached levels, measured as a multiple of corporate dividends or corporate earnings, that made no sense in terms of traditional patterns and rules of thumb for valuation. A range of evidence suggests that at the market peak in September 1929 something like forty percent of stock market values were pure air: prices above fundamental values for no reason other than that a wide cross-section of investors thought that the stock market would go up because it had gone up.
By 1928 and 1929 the Federal Reserve was worried about the high level of the stock market. It feared that the "bubble" component of stock prices might burst suddenly. When it did burst, pieces of the financial system might be suddenly revealed to be insolvent, the network of financial intermediation might well be damaged, investment might fall, and recession might result. It seemed better to the Federal Reserve in 1928 and 1929 to try to "cool off" the market by making borrowing money for stock speculation difficult and costly by raising interest rates. They accepted the risk that the increase in interest rates might bring on the recession that they hoped could be avoided if the market could be "cooled off": all policy options seemed to have possible unfavorable consequences.
In later years some, Friedrich Hayek for one, were to claim that the Federal Reserve had created the stock market boom, the subsequent crash, and the Great Depression through "easy money"policies.
pp. 161-2: "[U]p to 1927 I should have expected that the subsequent depression would be very mild. But in that year an entirely unprecedented action was taken by the American monetary authorities [who] succeeded, by means of an easy-money policy, inaugurated as soon as the symptoms of an impending reaction were noticed, in prolonging the boom for two years beyond what would otherwise have been its natural end. And when the crisis finally occurred, deliberate attempts were made to prevent, by all conceivable means, the normal process of liquidation."
YGM
(04/26/02; 19:55:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74420)
Wisdom To Be Gleaned Here @ Guilded Opinion
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html
Not to be overlooked....
YGM
(04/26/02; 19:38:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 74419)
COMING SOON TO A THEATRE NEAR US....
REAL ARGENTINE TEARS.......(Full Article)
World > Americas
from the April 26, 2002 edition
CLOSED TO ALL: Argentine depositors bang in protest on a Buenos Aires bank facade.
ENRIQUE MARCARIAN/REUTERS
Argentines cling to last pesos
ATMs are empty, banks are closed, and the economics minister has resigned.
By Colin Barraclough | Special to The Christian Science Monitor
BUENOS AIRES – Argentina is suddenly the world's largest laboratory for a cashless society.
Since the Argentine government took the extraordinary step of closing the nation's banking system last weekend, the country's 36 million people have been plunged abruptly into penury. Automatic teller machines are empty. Bank doors are bolted shut. Perhaps for the first time in Argentina's history, lawyers and laborers, models and maids are experiencing a similar hardship.
Barraclough tells the story behind the story.
"People who were planning to go to Europe can't even go to the supermarket now," says Ver--nica Palmieri, a leading fashion illustrator.
The streets of Buenos Aires are normally teeming with night life. But an eerie quiet has settled on the capital, as diners, theater-goers, and party animals opt to stay home to save their pesos. "This is a disaster," explodes Omar Vlacich, a taxi driver, after hours of vainly trolling the streets in search of a customer. "It's so quiet, it's like the city died."
With no access to cash, Argentina's sophisticated and cosmopolitan middle classes are turning to the country's fastexpanding barter clubs, once the preserve of the jobless and desperate, to survive. The national daily newspaper Clar'n ran a cover story recently when a barter club opened in Barrio Norte, one of the most upscale neighborhoods in the capital.
Many saw the event as yet another sign of the death of the middle class. "A new group is emerging from the middle class in Argentina," says Sylvia Baez, a charity worker. "They're hungry, they have inadequate clothing, and they have anguish in their faces. We call them the 'new poor.' "
Until this week, the country's four-year recession has hurt most deeply those on the bottom rungs of society. With the jobless total reaching 20 percent, a currency whose value has plummeted by some 70 percent since January, and a threadbare welfare benefits system, real hunger has appeared for the first time in Latin America's second largest economy.
President Eduardo Duhalde halted all banking operations and foreign-exchange transactions, effectively closing the banks. Yesterday, Argentina's Senate voted to strengthen the banking freeze. Argentines have been going to court to gain access to their money. The legislation will allow the government to appeal any court ruling before the depositor can receive their money.
Mr. Duhalde had hoped the freeze would help prop up the country's banking system, reeling from the outflow of about $100 million a day as depositors sought to withdraw their savings before the value of the Argentine peso plummeted further.
But the move has inflicted hardship on all levels of Argentine society. "Even the privileged are feeling the pain now," says Ms. Baez, the charity worker.
"We'll survive, but it's not going to be easy," says Juan Maciel, a prominent lawyer. "I have seven employees depending on me, as well as the laborers at my dairy farm, and my family, of course. I'll try to give them each enough to survive for four or five days, but the truth is that I don't have much cash left."
Argentines have already endured a five-month partial banking freeze that has limited cash withdrawals to about $500 a month. The president's economy minister, Jorge Remes Lenicov, devised a plan to convert bank deposits into low-interest five- to 10-year bonds in lieu of cash, effectively forcing Argentines to lend to the government.
The plan collapsed in disarray on Tuesday when Remes resigned after failing to win political backing for his project. Argentina is seeking $9 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund to help stabilize the economic crisis. Testifying before the US Congress Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill expressed concern that Argentina wasn't on the right track.
"I'm not eating much at the moment," says Sidney Page, a sculptor and film student. "I've eaten almost everything in the fridge. The only place I can afford is the discounted food section at the local supermarket, and I have no idea how long I can afford to go even there."
The country's cash shortage has become so acute that many of the immigrants who once flocked to Argentina for work from Paraguay, Bolivia, and Peru have opted to return home.
Others are just scraping by. "I have 50 pesos ($16) in cash, which might last me for two weeks if I'm careful," says Dionisia Acu--a, a Paraguayan who works as a maid for a prosperous Buenos Aires family. "I can't ask my boss for more because she has no cash either."
Even those too poor to hold a bank account are feeling the pressure. Susanna Ortega, a homeless mother of two, spends her days rummaging through trash cans for food, or anything else of value. "I usually ask around for money, or ask at shops if they can spare some meat or bread," she says. "No one can spare anything at the moment. I've run out of diapers for the kids, so we're using old rags at the moment."
With a touch of desperation, some Argentines are searching for meaning in their new poverty. Many take heart from a renewed sense of community, as neighbors and even strangers learn to depend on each other. Others draw parallels with their pioneering ancestors, mainly dirt-poor immigrants from southern Europe, who survived and sometimes prospered through frugal living and constant struggle.
For some, however, impotence in the face of governmental mismanagement is just too much to bear. "For sanity's sake, I prefer to to be disconnected from the news," says Sidney Page. "I don't want to read a newspaper or watch TV. It's better not to know what's coming next."
MarkeTalk
(04/26/02; 19:16:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74418)
Gauntlet-Runner2
I applaud your insight concerning the question about Brazil. In counseling my clientele here at Centennial, I have always pointed to Brazil as the lynchpin of the whole South American economy. Brazil is a real economic powerhouse in comparison to everyone else. Argentina is really an agricultural economy with very close ties to Brazil through the trading block known as the Mercosur. If my information is correct, Argentina is the second largest economy in South America.
While the bankers say that the two countries are unrelated in their economic performance and hence their country-risk ratings, that is only partly true. I don't pretend to have international expertise in this area but I do have one client out of New York who works for a large German bank and he tells me that not all is well. He specializes in restructuring South American sovereign-nation loans which are in the process of defaulting. Now if he is buying gold from me, doesn' t that tell you something!! His outlook for the region is not rosy and is downright pessimistic.
As far as tell-tale signs go regarding Brazil's potential default on its government debt, I would watch the government bond yields and the currency exchange rates. (Brazil seems to have been in a constant state of currency devaluation for the last 30 years.) You can find this information in the Financial Times--a truly great newspaper. You will have read the newspaper quite often in order to accustom yourself to the region so you can really understand what you are reading. By the way, when you read about Brazil's problems in the newspaper, the big money has already made its move. Don't think you will be able to outsmart billion dollar players. In my opinion, the price of gold is still the best barometer of where scared investment capital is heading, whether it be from Brazil or from Wall Street or (increasingly) from Main Street America.
GC
darkhorse
(04/26/02; 19:05:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 74417)
@MK et. al.
Okay, I'm ready for the next contest...and I'll throw in the first bid at $8500/oz. I was off by only a week (and .20) this time; I'll be happy to, uh, "lose" by a week (and maybe a dollar or two) this time also!
nickel62
(04/26/02; 19:01:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74416)
Brazil is a huge economy that has already broken off its unreal fix with the US Dollar!
I am far from the smart one but have been to Brazil and think that the primary difference is that the currency is already worth fifty percent less than it was five years ago when it was semi frozen in a relationship with the US dollar. I do think that the inflationary situation will continue to worsen significantly in Brazil but I think they will have a different trajectory then Argentina which was frozen into the dollarization sceme way past the time it made any sense. Brazil's citizens are not blase enough to think that their currency might not continue to lose value and I think they are moving to protect themselves on a daily basis. This should make the approaching inflationary situation difficult but different then the Argentine.
MarkeTalk
(04/26/02; 18:59:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 74415)
Boilermaker--Louis Ruykeyser
I just happened to turn on the TV when "Rooky" was giving his sermon on why Chicken Little was wrong about the stock market after all. Ruykeyser summarily dismissed the recent rise in gold as a mere nothing and then began his age-old mantra of touting stocks as the only road to wealth. I could only stomach a couple of minutes of his condescending attitude accompanied by that smartalecky trademark grin of his. Sorry I cannot report if he kissed Abby J, and we will have to read the papers to see if he retained his human form or was turned into a toad.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(04/26/02; 17:53:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74414)
Should get one more spike up.
The first stair step was sharp and vertical. The next one was at a slight angle. The next one may be at a lower angle yet. As to what I've seen studying breakouts for the past two years, they rarely occur in groups of two waves. We should get a third wave spike into the 320 zone + or - a few bucks. The stock market indexes are deteriorating, and another liquidity crisis is beginning to unravel. When all the hopeful longs are all filled up with stock, there is no one left to buy from the wave of coming sellers. It's the morasse of the bottom fishers.
As the senior manager taps the junior fund newby on the shoulder, "Hey, no more of that stuff!". "But it's so cheap!" "Yeah it's cheap and it isn't going up either". They don't know to hold or to sell but they won't be buying anymore troubled company stock. Back to establish short positions is what they are doing, bigtime. Why? Because the DOW is under 10,000. So it's headed to 9,000? No, try 7,000. Our new bottom fisher level. Complete with the new "pennystocks are the rage" kit. All the old names are there, some even have business models now. Oops, can't find it listed anymore, that's OK you can find in on the BB list.
What happens in a credit implosion is capital destruction. Keynesian Theory but in reverse. As people pull their money out of the system, it compounds the implosive effect along an exponential scale. "I don't have your money, get it from them, because they owe me". "We'll take your stuff and sell it!" Well no we won't because the markets are saturated and no one is buying anything they don't absolutely need. Everyone is selling but no one is buying because you can always buy it cheaper next week............except gold, whose demand is not rising on a linear curve BUT ON AN EXPONENTIAL CURVE!!!. Why? Because the manipulation has reduced mine production and supply of physical will dry up.
Brazil............we need to watch Brazil because it may go the way of Argentina. What will be the first signs of trouble? It's beyond me. I'm asking the brilliant ones and that includes you. Today it does. What is the difference between Brazil's financial picture vs Argentina's.
Canuck
(04/26/02; 17:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74413)
The Durbanites (hedgers) are getting nervous
See G-E post 16:04
mikal
(04/26/02; 16:51:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74412)
Trail Guide's spring rains awaken the seed.
Trail Guide: May your travels be safe and satisfying, may you share this Table again soon, may you always be remembered. Shakespeare, MERCHANT OF VENICE IV,i: "The quality of mercy is not strained, It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven."
Canuck
(04/26/02; 16:48:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74411)
Wicked
Wild couple of days, special note that spot closed on its high today.
As the Blade man would say.... Hmmm.
goldenpeace
(04/26/02; 16:15:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74410)
@Gandalf 74397
Am VERY happy to be correct (along with darkhorse) a week late!
Peace
Bowing
Blessings
ax
(04/26/02; 16:13:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74409)
USD AXINDEX BREAKS BELOW 100 MG !
AT THE CLOSE OF GOLD TRADING TODAY IN NEW YORK THE
US DOLLAR AS MEASURED BY THE AXINDEX DROPPED TO
99.88 MG (MILLIGRAMS) OF GOLD
YGM
(04/26/02; 15:40:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74408)
Golden Thoughts To Ponder........
By Great Thinkers.....
"The gold standard sooner or later will return with the force and inevitability of natural law, for it is the money of freedom and honesty."
-Hans F. Sennholz
"Every individual is a potential gold buyer, although he may not need the gold. It may be added to the store of personal wealth, and passed from generation to generation as an object of family wealth. There is no other economic good as marketable as gold."
-Hans F. Sennholz
"To prefer paper to gold is to prefer high risk to lower risk, instability to stability, inflation to steady long term values, a system of very low grade performance to a system of higher, though not perfect performance."
-William Rees-Mogg
"Start now buying gold coins, any kind, and hoarding them."
-Dr. John L. King
"The gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independent of the changing, ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence."
-Ludwig von Mises
"Place 5 percent to 10 percent of your total assets in gold bullion and selected gold and silver coins. No one knows with certainty whether the coming depression will be inflationary or deflationary."
-James Dale Davidson
"The standard of living of the common man is higher in those countries which have the greatest number of wealthy entrepreneurs."
-Ludwig von Mises
"...there seems to be a correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises."
-Hans F. Sennholz
"I see a great future for gold and silver coins as the currency people may increasingly turn to when paper currencies begin to disintegrate."
-Murray M. Rothbard
"Nothing beats a little cash in a bear market, of course, and the oldest form of cash is gold."
-James Grant
"Gold is as steady as a rock, a standardbearer by which all currencies can be accurately measured."
-Mark Skousen
"Buy gold and sit on it. That is the key to success."
-Dr. Franz Pick
"Whenever an overall breakdown of a monetary or financial system occurs, return to gold always restores order, revives confidence and brings back prosperity."
-Donald Hoppe
"The possibility of a discriminatory capital-gains tax on gold 'profits,' or even of outright confiscation, cannot be wholly dismissed. We must remember that in 1933, when private citizens began to exercise their clear legal right to convert their Federal Reserve notes and gold certificates into gold, President Franklin D. Roosevelt suspended the conversion, ordered the citizens to exchange their gold for paper money, and made it illegal for private citizens to hold or own gold. In other words, the government not only broke its solemn and explicit pledge to convert its notes into gold on demand, but treated the holder (and dupe) who had taken the pledge seriously as the real culprit."
-Henry Hazlitt
"The authorities in the United States confiscated private gold holdings in the Depression of the 1930's. They may seek to do so again in the Depression of the 1990's."
-James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg
Black Blade
(04/26/02; 14:43:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 74407)
hipplebeck - Abdullah-Dubya Meeting
You are right about the Bush-Abdullah meeting. The crown prince informed Dubya that he risks alienating the Arab world by giving unqualified support to Israel at the expense of the Arab world. Of course the Saudi royals are scared to death. They know that there is a lot of discontent among their people. They hate the west and all that it stands for. We infidels are not exactly the most moral people as far as they are concerned and add in a mix of radical Islamic fundamentalism (like Wahabbism) and the problem is obvious.
Osama Bin Laden has been hoping to create a situation where the Royals would be overthrown and a more radical Islamic government take over. He also wants the POO to rise to $144.00/bbl and for the Saudi people to be repatriated for past barrels sold. He has a lot of support in Saudi. The crown prince has no choice but to plead for a more conciliatory position from the US and Europe. The day of the Royals is coming to an end and they know it. There is a method to their investing overseas and stocking up of foreign bank accounts. They are making preparations for that eventual exit from center stage.
That is the reason that daily reports of possibly using the "Oil Weapon" come to the surface. They know that if they do not get some concessions, they can take down the US economy if they feel in danger. They would rather have support from their people to stay in power even if it means economic hardship at home. The truly hardcore Islamists don't care about the wealth as much. Remember – 15 of the 9-11 terrorists were Saudi.
Dubya is caught in a vise. He either continues to support Sharon and the occupation, or he concedes to some degree to the Arab demands (if only publicly). On the other hand it could strengthen his position for his energy plan- especially so if the Arab OPEC producers turn off the "spigot". However, that could destabilize the ME region further.
I will hopefully cover this in more detail when I get time. Cheers!
- Black Blade
R Powell
(04/26/02; 14:26:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 74406)
darkhorse
What a great day!!
Yes indeed you get credit. Being right in choosing between higher and lower is all that is required to profit. There isn't an analyst, economist, commodity broker or stockpicker alive that wouldn't be very happy to be able to just know whether up or down is currently correct.
Maybe I'll be right next Friday- $319.+
I think (IMHO) that it may take a little more time to hit Invisible Hand's guess.
CNBC just mentioned gold stocks. The secret is leaking out!
BC BN BG and silver too.
Happy weekend
Rich
Black Blade
(04/26/02; 14:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 74405)
"Interesting" Day on Wall Street
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
In all, not a bad day for Gold and petroleum. The rest of the market took a dive as no one in their right mind wants to buy more equities this weekend ahead of next weeks economic data. There also appears to be a major shift in sentiment about Gold as far as the investing public is concerned - just wait until the momentum crowd jump on board.
Just heard an "interesting" comment on CNBC. Marci Rossell, the "perky" resident economist stated that the headline GDP number is really not as rosy as the number appears. Most of the increase in GDP was due to declining inventories. Also, she admitted that we really are in a Recession - that the 2 quarters of declining GDP is really a myth - and that the real important data is jobs. Using unemployment as a criteria, we are in a deepening Recession. An unemployment number for new claims above 400,000 is recessionary. Yesterday the number was 421,000 and last weeks number was revised upward to 452,000.
As always, get out of debt (as soon as possible), get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance (just might not be cheap from here on out), get enough cash on hand for several months expenses (just look at Argentina), and get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started (the 3 year drought will extend into this year and higher cost for fertilers, etc. are sure to increase).
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
- Black Blade
darkhorse
(04/26/02; 13:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 74404)
@Gandalf #74397
See, I knew I was right on the price...everybody else is/was wrong about when the contract expired! (Do I at least get credit for trying?) :)
Hipplebeck
(04/26/02; 13:51:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74403)
Markets today
By the looks of things I would guess that the meeting between Bush and Abdullah didn't go too well.
R Powell
(04/26/02; 13:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74402)
Happy Weekend !!!
http://money.cnn.com/funds
June gold 312.1 +3.50
May Silver 465.2 +3.2
June Crude 27.15 +.42
June USD Index 115.30 -.45
XAU index (still trading) about 77 up approx 3.0
Stock market indexes are presently all negative with about 20 minutes to go.
The link comes from Jesse Livermore (forum next door) and list some fund gains YTD. All these funds have something in common and are (IMHO) indicators that POG and POS have some serious catching-up to do. Hopefully soon!
Happy weekend
Rich
The Hoople
(04/26/02; 13:17:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74401)
Boilermaker
Maybe Rukeyser will go on Smackdown against Gail Dudak. Speaking of Abby J. I haven't noticed her making any gutsy calls lately. Must be the Elliot Spitzer factor. Don't look for Ruky to flip any overlay charts up of gold vs. GE stock YTD. Wonder how many blue-haired investment clubs are still following him? Many are so destitute they can only shampoo the poodle every other week now.
TownCrier
(04/26/02; 12:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 74400)
Check out this midday HEADLINE: "Gold Firm But Capped At $310"
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4247863667595083840
New York, April 26 (OsterDowJones) - Comex Jun gold futures remained robust Friday morning and even entered fresh contract-high territory by probing resistance at the $310 per ounce mark mid-morning.
...The U.S. dollar made fresh 16-week lows against the euro of 1.1115 euros to render dollar-denominated gold cheaper and entice further physical demand out of the euro region.
..."things are not looking great in the equity market, the dollar is looking progressively weaker, and the tensions in the Middle East threaten to cause absolute chaos across the world so people are obviously hedging their bets," the dealer said. "Also, there seems to be a trend forming here that gold and gold stocks are going higher, and people just love being involved in an upwards trend," he added.
This source expected resistance at $310 to hold firm over the near term but come under close inspection next week...
Beyond $310, the next key level of resistance is seen at $320.
--------------
Well, judging from today's close versus those closing comments, gold seems to be ahead of schedule. Onward and upward?? What will Monday bring? For gold buyers considering the grand scheme of things, today is still an attractive price to accumulate...exchanging wayward paper "assets" for real assets.
R.
Old Yeller
(04/26/02; 12:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 74399)
Argentina
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1101482
As the implications sink in for debt ridden economies and onerous government future obligations,the spotlight may soon be moved to the main stage.
In America,they will always have fresh money on hand,unlike Argentina.No matter,the end result will be the same.
Note the assertion that even God wants dollars;wrong.Fiat currency is not something that is high on God's list of mankind's honorable endeavors.
TownCrier
(04/26/02; 12:25:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74398)
HEADLINE: Stronger rand zaps gold stocks
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=qw1019838240730B256&set_id=60
(April 26 2002 -- Johannesburg) - The rand recovered to R10,70 to the dollar by late Friday, which saw the JSE gold sector drop by 3,7 percent despite the price of bullion holding steady.
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A rising tide does not necessarily float all boats. Bear in mind, it really depends upon which beach you're standing.
R.
Gandalf the White
(04/26/02; 12:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74397)
WHAT a DIFFERENCE a week makes in the POG !!
GC2M Settlement Price on 4/26/02 was 312.1!!!!!
AND THE last weeks Guesses had
$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357
$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375
===
<;-)
TownCrier
(04/26/02; 12:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 74396)
HEADLINE: Has tide turned for the dollar?
http://www.iht.com/articles/55982.htm
Excerpts: (click URL above for more)
International Herald Tribune -- April 26, 2002
If currency forecasting is the graveyard of the economics profession, the seemingly indefatigable U.S. dollar must have killed many a career over the last few years. Each time strategists predicted that the dollar was headed for a fall, it bounced back strongly against the euro and the yen. Now, as the dollar slowly weakens anew, some analysts are cautiously saying that this time it could be different.
...Few analysts, having been burned in the past, are willing to predict a sharp decline in the dollar. ...Still, analysts see signs of a shift in sentiment. The U.S. stock market, which rebounded strongly after Sept. 11, has stagnated more recently, hurt by questions about accounting practices at American corporations...
...economists are renewing their warning that the ever-growing U.S. current account deficit, which widened to $417 billion last year, could further undermine the dollar.
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Danger to the left, danger to the right. Dial gold right down the center.
R.
Boilermaker
(04/26/02; 12:16:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74395)
Louis Rukeyser's Friday Nite Live
I won't be near a TV tonight but am hoping someone will report on that white-haired old stock pimp loved by so many of us. Perhaps he will be kissed by Abby J and turn into a toad sitting on his overstuffed leather chair.
Not a bad day for us "bugs".
TownCrier
(04/26/02; 12:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 74394)
"We shall have the hyperinflation."
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1100657
Excerpts: (click URL above for more)
(The Economist - Apr 26) -- ...Government figures released on April 26th showed that GDP grew by 5.8% at an annual rate in the first three months of this year.
A closer look at the elements which make up the GDP figure ...a large rise in government spending. Defence for instance, rose at a 20% annual rate, the fastest since the Vietnam War. The combination of higher government spending and tax cuts is likely to continue to contribute to the recovery over the coming months, though there are limits to how long that can be the main engine of growth.
...Even before the latest figures were published, Mr Greenspan had begun to consider the appropriate monetary policy for recovery. The Fed's job is to nurture the economy at this still-delicate stage in the cycle while at the same time keeping a careful eye on the threat of nascent inflation. It is a tricky balance to strike...getting the policy response right can be especially important when economies are at a turning point: moving too soon or too late could undermine the recovery, or allow inflationary pressures to build up.
As recent forecasts from both the IMF and the OECD made clear, a sustained American economic recovery this year and next is important for the rest of the world, not just for America. The United States remains the engine of global economic growth. There is a lot riding on what Mr Greenspan and his colleagues decide. That is a pretty hefty weight for anyone's shoulders.
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And what if Atlas shrugged?
R.
nickel62
(04/26/02; 11:56:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74393)
$312.20 Last trade
Closing strong so far..must be significant for those trying to cover..
nickel62
(04/26/02; 11:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74392)
$311.90 Last trade price.....
Can we see $320 at the close...????
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(04/26/02; 11:36:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 74391)
Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one ELSE will do it FOR you. USAGOLD/Centennial is here to help!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
In this global marketplace, an event on the far side of the world (even while you sleep or play) can adversely affect the performance-credibility of your commercial positions and financial portfolio.
Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its reliable "form and function" -- a steadfast financial commodity with value immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.
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