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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/26/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

John Doe (10/26/01; 23:26:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 64253)
cwa
If that's the case, then the U.S. Mint is supplying the "terrorists". Also, the U.S. Constitution explicitly constructed and endorsed a monetary system perfect for "terrorists". Makes one wonder who the "terrorists" actually are.

Black Blade (10/26/01; 23:25:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 64252)
Gas prices headed up in spring?
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?Section=OnlineArticles&ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Elect&ARTICLE_ID=124085

Snippit:

HOUSTON, Oct. 22 -- Natural gas prices could bounce back from current lows and top $3/Mmbtu next spring, reflecting an industrial switch to gas from oil, a Houston energy analyst said. Natural gas for November delivery was trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday at $2.68/Mmbtu. Raymond James & Co. thinks gas could be priced at $3.50/Mmbtu and demand could rise 4-5 bcfd in the first quarter of 2002. "As we enter the coming holiday season, we should start to see evidence of a year-to-year increase in gas demand," said J. Marshall Adkins. Understanding last year's decline in demand resulted from high prices not economic conditions is key to understanding the present outlook for g as demand and prices, he said.

Black Blade: Higher energy prices will keep a lid on economic recovery while lower energy prices will result in lower hydrocarbon supply. A vicious cycle. Some in the energy are calling on the US government for a "Marshall Plan" for energy to reduce US reliance on foreign hydrocarbon supply. The US is heading into the winter season with lower temperatures and shorter-darker days. NG prices are heading higher (now over $3.00?Mmbtu.


Black Blade (10/26/01; 23:03:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 64251)
Homestore To Cut 700 Jobs, Restructure
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nf/20011026/bs/14422_1.html

Snippit:

Homestore.com (Nasdaq: HOMS), the No. 1 online real-estate company, said Thursday it will cut as many as 700 jobs, or about 20 percent of its workforce, as it trims costs and reorganizes its operations.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" to the "Bone Pile."



Black Blade (10/26/01; 22:50:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 64250)
Analysts Are Convinced: This Is Really a Recession
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,37317,00.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK - If there were any doubts that the United States is in the middle of a recession, Thursday's batch of grim data removed them - and virtually ensured another interest rate cut by the Fed in two weeks' time. According to a series of government reports released Thursday, home sales and orders to factories for big-ticket items plunged in September, and the number of Americans drawing unemployment benefits now stands at an 18-year-high - the strongest evidence to date that the country has entered a recession. "The bad news just keeps on coming," said Melani Jani, an economist at Salomon Smith Barney in New York. "The economy was already weak before Sept. 11, and these figures show the deterioration has become much more intense."

Black Blade: The sleepers have awakened! I have said that we were in a recession for the last few months and that it would get worse. We still have a long ways to go. It is even quite possible that we could enter into the most painful economic depression in 72 years. Investment banks and other institutions are doing their best to prop up the markets in spite of the stock markets having lost well over $5 Trillion in the last two years - an amount nearly equal to the national debt or stated another way - that's nearly half of the US total gross domestic product! That's money gone - vanished - gone to "Money Heaven."

How bad is it? The "Bone Pile" grows higher daily. The Airlines have been hit especially bad with 120,000 "Bones" cast aside. Losses will be much higher than the $2.5 Billion in estimated losses. The government bailout will add more debt to an already bleak picture. Add to this the fact that fewer people want to get on an airplane these days - go figure! I bet they will come back to the government with their hands held out like Oliver Twist saying, "May I please have more?" Banks and Investment Houses are being put through the meat grinder as nonessential banker "Bones" are no longer needed when there are fewer IPO's and many are expecting investor lawsuits and increasing arbitrations. Insurers and Reinsurers must cash in stocks and bonds to get liquid to payoff Sept. 11 claims. That's nearly $80 Billion or more in insurance-liability-damage claims and certainly lawsuits from victims, lawyers, grieving families, businesses (in and around the WTC location). Manufacturing is at a standstill as fewer Americans are making big-ticket purchases (including luxury goods and real estate). The list goes on and on.

Other factors to consider are growing corporate and consumer debt. Everyone borrowed like there was no tomorrow - but tomorrow is here. Credit card debt is at an all-time high and more delinquencies and bankruptcy filings are seen each month. Banks are in crisis as earnings are falling short and bad loans have skyrocketed. Asia and Latin America are suffering from heavy debt crises. Consumer confidence is low. Corporate earnings are declining. The ME oil producers hold the fate of the west in their hands. War could very easily spread from Afghanistan to the ME region as more volunteers to the Al Qaeda Cult's cause arrive from the ME and as far away as the Philippines. Terrorism continues unabated. The list is almost endless. The outlook for the Global economy does not look good. Recession? Most definitely! "Interesting Times"


Old Yeller (10/26/01; 22:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64249)
FOA boggles minds on the Bearforum
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=194924

Interesting assortment of comments in this chain.



cwa (10/26/01; 22:01:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 64248)
Old Yeller
From reading this new legislation I believe that confiscation of personal gold (and silver) is a very real possibility. Particularly if you have more than $10K value in USD. This would be under the "underground banking" provisions of this new law.

Virtualy every crime in the US is now considered an "act of terrorism".

Black Blade (10/26/01; 21:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 64247)
U.S. Corporate Earnings Decline for a Third Consecutive Quarter
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO9jgehatVS5TLiBD


Snippit:

New York, Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. corporate earnings tumbled for a third straight quarter as a slump in computer- related sales deepened and consumers spent less. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks aggravated the slowdown and may lead to two more quarterly declines, which would produce the longest drop in profits in more than three decades. ``The whole recovery process has probably been pushed out by six months, and the decline has been made deeper,'' said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management, which manages $280 billion.

Black Blade: Valuations of many companies are absurdly high in the face of declining or no earnings. This is the time to be very selective in investing - be very picky. Prepare for an extended deep recession just as you would for any natural disaster or extended layoff. Keep enough cash available for several month expenses, get out of debt, and defend your wealth with portfolio insurance such as Gold and Silver.


Black Blade (10/26/01; 21:37:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 64246)
Stupid Accounting Tricks: Extreme and Foundry By the Real Numbers
http://www.luskinreport.com/luber/archive/20011025luber.htm

Snippit:

Remember back in high school algebra when you were first introduced to the concept of imaginary numbers? That's a good way to describe quarterly earnings reports these days -- as imaginary numbers. In the old days, when a company reported quarterly earnings, you had a pretty good idea of how they really did. These days, because of something called "pro forma" reporting, you have to play detective to find the real numbers. And if you don't know how to play detective, you can be easily misled.

The term "pro forma" means "preview" or "provisional." It was originally used to indicate that some of the detail is missing and will be provided at a later date. For example, a pro forma invoice is a preliminary invoice which is close to the true invoice that will come later. It's a convenient way of generating a preview of a document before all of the supporting detail is available.

But this whole business of pro forma earnings has gotten way out of hand. Today, the term pro forma, when applied to quarterly earnings, more accurately means "We're going to make up our own accounting rules with regards to how we report earnings, and we're going to provide some explanatory notes in the fine print that nobody reads in the hopes that the general public and most analysts will be duped into thinking our performance was much better than it really was this quarter." And sadly, it works most of the time -- or at least until a company pro formas itself out of business.


Black Blade: Good article worth reading. This corporate lying is out of hand and the SEC allows this abuse to continue. I see similar accounting and trickery in the mining business as well. Cash Costs and Cash Profits vs. Total Costs and Total Profit. Barrick is a prime example. As far as Pro Forma accounting abuses are concerned, Amazon.com is probably the King of Lies. Their cash burn rate suggests that they could be out of business early next year. Yet their Pro Forma results suggest that they should be buried in cash. I am willing to bet that they are either out of business or acquired by the middle of next year. This abuse of Pro Forma accounting has reached unprecedented levels this last quarter and looks to get much worse. Ultimately what counts is the "Real" bottom line.


Cavan Man (10/26/01; 21:34:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 64245)
PS: FOA....
You sound more and more like 5-10 all the time :>(. NAT (not a trader)PGA (not the golfing type) and, "Live free or die!"

Cavan Man (10/26/01; 21:24:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 64244)
Well, FOA....
as you always take the opportunity to bust my chops...

My #1 iron is ready when you are.

Kind regards......CM

Gold Trail Update (10/26/01; 21:21:34MDT - Msg ID:64243)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Old Yeller (10/26/01; 21:15:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 64242)
Surrendering freedom
http://www.thenation.com/thebeat/

Collateral damage descends on the land of the free.

R Powell (10/26/01; 19:31:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 64241)
The CoinGuy/ COT/ Question on Argentina's debt
http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htm
In the end of week report Lance Lewis touches on the COT numbers for gold. He says, "The COT revealed that commercials had cut their net short position in gold in half as of Tuesday, which is bullish."
A good deal of the talk on their "bearchat" forum is discussing/ wondering/ crying/ and cussing over the stock market's strength while the news media reports day after day what sounds like bad economic news. It certainly has me baffled and amazed so, as I've learned from the experts, I'll call it a "technical" move. This means I haven't a clue. Is this a bear market bounce or have the bulls really begun re-inflating the bubble?
I have a feeling that, in the present global, political situation, POG will be more strongly influenced by the direction of the stock index numbers than it was before the president declared war. Wasn't there a time when Congress had to agree to such declarations??
Thoughts please on what happens if Argentina can not make payments on her debt and there is no relief from the IMF or any other source? What happens in such a case. Is the unpaid debt simply written off as bad debt by those owed?
Happy weekend!!
Rich

lamprey_65 (10/26/01; 19:13:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 64240)
The CoinGuy
I was contemplating a post on the subject of super liquidity from the FED and its consequences for the stock market...your post spurred me to action!

Yes, to me what I see is similar to the late '99 period when Greenspan was pumping money into the system for "Y2K"...I took a rather LARGE opportunity cost by getting out before the markets ramped higher (this money came at a most convenient time, by the way...the big trading firms, Goldman Sachs, etc., sold that rally to escape the inevitable crash). In the long run I still ended up ahead...more than can be said for those who bought into the rally and did not get out in time.

When will "in time" be this go-around? No idea...but not planning on finding out the hard way either.

Canuck (10/26/01; 18:49:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 64239)
@ BB ....going long
Have adjusted my portfolio over the last couple weeks; an investment advisor would puke but hey, I saw my companies 'tech' fund -39% YTD and -73% one year.

Long Term (Retirement) REIT.......20%
Energy Trust......................15%
NG stock..........................30%
Integrated Oil....................10%
Unhedged Gold.....................25%

Off to the lake tomorrow to set fresh water fish record and smiling with energy and gold. With each cast the smile on my face will grow wider, I wonder how do the 'techies' and 'shorts' fish?

Have a golden week-end.

Canuck.

Canuck (10/26/01; 18:36:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 64238)
Hedged us. Unhedged; Paper vs. Physical
Just is case anyone is unclear of the future ABX announced quarterly profits in the order of -23%, Franco-Nevada announced record quarterly growth in the order of +35%.

Hmmmmm.........

site steward (10/26/01; 18:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 64237)
Hi CoinGuy
I believe it is accurate to say that in all my time here, I have never uttered the words "short covering" -- at least not insofar as it would significantly apply to gold derivatives and to COMEX.

That, my friend, I believe speaks volumes.

Or I am to be taken as a hack. (The decision I leave to each man.)

Best regards!
R.

The CoinGuy (10/26/01; 17:48:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 64236)
Ooops...COT
Wanted to comment on the Commitment of Traders report and forgot to in the last post. It looks like the commercials were running from their shorts. The report only goes up to the 23rd, but from where I stand it looks as though they've been halved. Any comments? Site Steward?

The (physical)CoinGuy

P.S. Site Steward, looks like a lot of that free money from the fed is coming due around the 1st and 2nd. Think it'll be rolled over? any historical precedents here. I'm trying to disperse my trading account to the appropiate investments(short-term).

The CoinGuy (10/26/01; 17:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 64235)
COT...Hmmm & The Trail Guide
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
FOA,

If you're commenting on any of the posts on the forum, I thought I would throw one in for myself.

"Putin's move with the Chervonetzy looks awfully familiar to the Lenin decree of '21 to correct the inflationary printing press of the Bolsheviks. Could this be the model of what we could expect from the ECB to correct for the current flood of US paper? Although adopting the past policies of a "no inflation" Germany transferring the whole of the EU under it's umbrella. When they move the leadership of the ECB to the French, you look at this as a positive development? I'm wondering why? I'll admit I'm lost here...

History does repeat?

The CoinGuy



Hard assets...Easy access (10/26/01; 17:31:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 64234)
Portfolio adjustments
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
Take inventory over the weekend, then call Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. on Monday to discuss your additional needs.

Gandalf the White (10/26/01; 17:17:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 64233)
WIN some -- Lose some !
HoustonChronicle.com -- http://www.HoustonChronicle.com | Section: National
Oct. 25, 2001, 8:06PM

Interior relaxes key mining rule, drawing protests
Reuters News Service

WASHINGTON -- The Interior Department angered environmentalists Thursday by removing a key provision from a Clinton-era rule that would have allowed regulators to block gold, silver and copper mines even after they passed all environmental tests.

The Bush administration left the so-called "hard-rock mining rule" largely intact, but dropped a section that gave the interior secretary the power to block mining projects likely to cause "sustainable and irreparable" harm to federal land.

The government said it deleted the provision because it raised "serious policy and legal questions."

Environmental groups said they would challenge the revised mining rule in court.

The rollback of the hard-rock mining measure is a blow to environmentalists who say Interior Secretary Gale Norton is failing to protect federal land from undue harm.

"This is a grave disappointment. These regulations don't address a vast majority of the problems caused by mining," Lexi Shultz, director of the Mineral Policy Center in Washington, told Reuters. "We will be challenging (Norton's) legal authority to issue these rules."

Environmentalists had celebrated the Clinton policy as the first significant change to U.S. mining rules since a weaker set of revisions were passed in 1980.

Larry Finfer, spokesman for Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management, defended the agency's move to delete the controversial provision giving a Cabinet official the ultimate authority to veto a mining project.

Lawyers for the Interior Department said the provision would not stand up in court, partly because it was added by the Clinton administration too late in the rule-making process without giving the public time to comment on it.

The provision was bitterly opposed by the mining industry, which said a company might spend millions of dollars to meet environmental standards, only to see a project vetoed.

"It's sort of saying you've cleared all 10 hurdles but you lose anyway," said Finfer. "That's hard to defend on fairness grounds."

The Bureau of Land Management already has the authority to reject a mining project if it fails to meet federal standards for clean air and water, or to protect endangered species. The BLM oversees about 264 million acres of U.S. land.

"It's important to deal with those problems at the front and not the back end," said Finfer.

The revisions also dropped a provision that had given the agency the authority to administer civil penalties if a company violated environmental requirements.

On Thursday, the department sent a letter to Congress explaining the revisions and urging lawmakers to address mining reform issues including the issuance of monetary penalties.

The Bush administration chose to keep several standards from the earlier draft, including one requiring all mining companies to post bond to cover cleanup costs.

Tougher standards controlling cyanide leaching that occurs in the process of extracting gold ore and in controlling acid drained from rocks also were kept.

The new rule is scheduled to take effect Dec. 31. Regulators began working on the hard-rock mining rule during the first President George Bush's administration.
---------------------------------------------------
<;-)


Pandagold (10/26/01; 17:11:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 64232)
The British in Afghanistan
Not going into a long military history diatribe, but when the British were last in this area, the technology and military hardware did not extend beyond horse drawn
gatling and field guns. The officers road ahead of the troops on horseback.

The British were there merely to keep peace among the tribes, and check Russian infiltration.

So, it was fairly 'even stevens' for the Afghans. In other words it was incomparable to even what the Russians threw at them, never mind the present imbalance held by the US. in its favour

BR549 (10/26/01; 16:29:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64231)
Come on over jb, I'll post your bail, just bring your Gold for collateral
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,37368,00.html
jb msg#: 64230)---

Where does it say that these new anti-terrorism laws apply just to foreigners? I missed that part. Silly me, I thought that they applied to individuals suspected of a crime. And the new laws will be gone in four years.(unless they are clintonized via Executive Order).

According to the above link---
"The terror bill has many provisions to help law enforcement track down and detain suspected terrorists. Among the provisions, the bill will:

— enhance intelligence sharing between federal agencies and local and state law enforcement, and make available grand jury evidence from foreign intelligence services

— increase to seven days the amount of time a foreign suspect can detained before deportation procedures or release

— expand roving wiretap authority to allow investigators to target all phones used by a suspect rather than just one phone line, and

— create broader penalties for bioterrorism crimes.

Legislators also added a sunset provision to phase out the laws in four years."

BR-And when you visit, bring your stash of Gold and Silver with you. You can't carry it on board an airplane, just check it in baggage claim.

BR549

jb (10/26/01; 15:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 64230)
already the freedom is gone
being a foreigner(canadian),i could get thrown into the can for basicly no reason.o thank you.i have no reason to visit a police state,never had never will.make no mistake the usa is now a police state.you have more reason to own gold and silver than ever.something is going to give (explode ) soon.not sure what is going to happen.something very unexpected is going to move markets like never before.i guess i better becareful what i say because the e-mails are also tapped.seems to be alot of thinks going on .gold and silver and then bury it.





Cheney: Precautions to Become Normal

" By DAVID HO, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Vice President Dick
Cheney (news - web sites) said Thursday that
homeland security is not a temporary measure
for the current crisis, but ``will become
permanent in American life.''

``I think of it as the new normalcy,'' Cheney said.

The vice president spoke to a Republican Governors Association
fund-raiser, which said it raised about $1 million. More than a dozen
Republican governors participated, including Gov. Frank Keating of
Oklahoma and the association's chairman, Gov. John Rowland of
Connecticut.

Cheney has raised his profile this past week, speaking at several events
after having spent much of the time since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks
out of the public eye at a secret location.

``It's just good to see somebody,'' Cheney joked. ``You know these
days, we don't get many visitors at the cave.''

Cheney said the federal government has been working closely with
governors to improve homeland security on the local level.

``We are taking every measure to improve both our prevention
capability and our response capability,'' Cheney said. ``Many of the
steps we have now been forced to take will become permanent in
American life. They represent an understanding of the world as it is,
and dangers we must guard against perhaps for decades to come.''

Cheney said government health care labs and law enforcement teams
are working overtime to track down those responsible for sending
letters containing anthrax.

``We do not yet know who has been sending the anthrax, nor at this
point do we have evidence linking these incidents to the terror network
responsible for the attacks of Sept. 11,'' he said. ``Wherever they are,
they will be found, they will be stopped and they will be punished.''

President Bush (news - web sites) was originally scheduled to address
the gathering, which the governors' association billed as ``An Evening
With President George W. Bush.'' He sent Cheney in his place,
however. "

-

On the Net:

Mr Gresham (10/26/01; 13:50:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 64229)
Tides (from Bill Bonner today)
Our legions are brim-full, our cause is ripe:
The enemy increaseth every day;
We, at the height, are ready to decline.
There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

Brutus
Julius Caesar
Act 4, Scene 3


Henri: "Lightning -- static cling" -- Brilliant!



jb (10/26/01; 13:39:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 64228)
liberty
a little quote fromone of the gearts of the usa,which i believe is correct and in lite what happen today maybe the american citizen should think what has happened.(ie:anti-terrisom bill):

"Those who would give up essential Liberty,
to purchase a little temporary
Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
-Ben Franklin

Netking (10/26/01; 13:04:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 64227)
"Silver to $3.60-$3.80 long term" - JPMC
Now that rally in spot silver off pre-Sept. 11 $4.11/oz low to $4.69 completed, JP Morgan Chase sees negative turn in longer-term outlook, with $4.15 as initial target and risk of dropping to $3.60-$3.80 later. But still expects advance back to $4.35-$4.45 range in coming weeks (silver-investor).

I'm surprised that they didn't pick $2.50 as a target . . . it just again proves we're dealing with two different markets in the same commodity.
- Netking

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD (10/26/01; 12:33:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 64226)
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