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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/26/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

barnacle bill (01/26/01; 23:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46608)
Casket
http://www.kiac-usa.com/goldstockpicksPg4.html
I stumbled across this at the above link:

He held his wealth in paper
Then came the dollars doom.
His caskets lined with greenbacks
and T-Bills mark his tomb.

Black Blade (01/26/01; 23:14:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46607)
RE: Leigh
Good to see you back again. You might remember that some of us were joking a few months ago that when the Clinton's left DC, that the staff may want to make sure that the departing first family didn't abscond with the White House silverware. It appears that it was no joke. It appears that not only is White House silverware missing, but according to a couple of "minor" news reports on CNN and FOX that there is also missing linen, among other items not given as "gifts." Hillary has gone into seclusion for a few days, apparently until this all blows over. A lot of corrupt activities are about to be exposed and the "buying" of presidential pardons is only the "tip o� the �berg."

Cheers, - Black Blade

lamprey_65 (01/26/01; 23:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46606)
The Swiss
I thought they were selling 1300 tons over 5 years - 260 tons a year. I read somewhere that they had sold around 160 tons by sometime in December, so this leads me to believe that the 220 tons mentioned is a total since the beginning of the sales program(?)...not sure. And why is March an end date for the yearly sales quota?...I thought the end date for the sales quota per year was stated to be the end of September.

Kind of screwy!

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 23:00:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46605)
I'm Awaiting Any One of the Three...
Attn: Peter Asher (01/26/01; 21:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46602)
Peter Asher wrote:
[snip]
...John Stewart Mill's (loosely quoted) "New ideas are first met with ridicule, then argument., and finally, acceptance."
[unsnip]

I believe he may have been talikng about me, not Real Estate.

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 22:54:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46604)
Gold Vision Quest... Whoose Shorts Are These.?.
Attn: auspec (01/26/01; 21:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46600
Hi auspec/agspec..
Questions, questions. You ask many questions. Good ones too. Unfortunately, I do
not know all of (or even very many) of the answers. That's what you all are on
this Vision Quest to accomplish. I need the answers too. Lets' think about them:

[you ask (1)]
I have always thought of the "mountain of shorts" {paper/derivatives} as a
veritable proof that large quantities of gold are NOT AVAILABLE to the assorted
suppressors of US$ POG. How does your cycle mechanism of selling/buying back
account for the formation/necessity of so many tons of shorts? Shorts NOT
nekked?? They simply must be backed by something OTHER than physical gold; i.e.-
"full faith and credit" {presses}.

[my response (1)]
Early on I mentioned the BandWagon effect. FrontRunners. Cohorts among the big
facilitators. So, we have the GOOP (solid) gold coming into the market with
the specific intent to use it to trigger a downward snowball. (To buyback it
and more, later at rockbottom. ... fleecing the Long suckers.) Well enough.
Now here's your answer. The facilitators (let's call one Goldman Sicks). He
is in from the start as the GOOP broker. He knows what will happen. He is very
greedy. He jumps on the BandWagon,or even (horrors) FrontRuns it. Using paper.
(He is backstopped by Gov't gold if timing is wrong, and unexpeceted spike up,
or other malevents require a quiet bailout by uncle.) Uncle himself, is also
facilitating the GOOP sales. To make CPI look tame. And to appease the GOOP
merchants so they will sell us their Oil at half its real worth. This is their
payback. The other half. In gold. By permitting it; looking the other way and
other nefarious facilitations. Your mountain of shorts is heightened, by the
astute COMEX day-traders who also know the pattern. They jump on the wagon too.
Clever, isn't it. How the Giants are aided by the Midgets. Mole hills soon
become Mountains. And POG plummets. Just as planned.

[you ask (2)]
Ag & Au have very similar short predicaments as far as COMEX{s}. What OTHER
similarities exist as far as a working mechanism used with GOOP?

[my response (2)]
GOOP only gets exchanged for Au (gold). Ag (silver) has traditionally traded
as a subset of Au. POG is hammered. Ag gets hammered. But in less dramatic
amounts. Mostly it's the (same) FrontRunners dipping both markets parallel,
as they know the usual depressing result. And so they can greedily scoop up
more cash without GOOP being directly involved. Look at a long term chart of
Ag (POS) and compare it to long term Au (POG). You will see, as I posted way
back when, an odd dis-similarity. The POS is more stable. Fluctuating in less
synchronous ways. It's very strange. I attribute the difference to the COMEX
day-traders; insiders; skittish behavior in the volatile Ag market. And too,
silver has basic fundamentals that are more market/industrilaly driven that
tempers the action more so than found in Au markets.

[you ask (3)]
This mechanism, as you explained it, depends on a large supply available of
Au/Ag to set the process in motion. There is no AM/PM fix by the R's Bank/London
to allow this to take place that I am aware of. LBMA also perform silver
miracles? Ag & O,O,O?

[my response (3)]
No. I didn't say that there is a large physical GOOP suply of Au/Ag. Only Au.
The Ag manipulatin is paper driven shorts. But I suspect it is entirely very
possible that one or two large holders of physical Ag may be playing a similar
game as the GOOP guys. Soros, and the other Giant guy. His name escapes me as
I write. The guy who bought umpteen zillion comex silver awhile back and had
it shipped to London. Sure you know who I mean. Call him SilverGoop Wannabee.
The acronym LBMA has "B" as Bullion. That could be Au and Ag Bullion. Maybe
Pandagold can tell us more about the LBMA silver trading, or what market is
used for Ag in his little township. (sheesh... Only one square mile.) (with
fog so thick you cannot see Forests, for the Pomp). I digress. Sorry.

[you ask (4)]
Bottom line Q.....What do you see as existing/available above ground silver
supply???

[my response (4)
As I understand it, it is virtually zero. Even the US mint has run out and must
now go into the Ag spot market to obtain it. Hence the recent steady POS rise.
For exact numbers, GoTo: http://www.silver-investor.com and link to the Ted
Butler articles. You will learn from those, the true severity of Ag supply.

[lastly, you ask (5)]
ThaiHoldSilver.!.Awaaay..
That protagonist had ample supply of Ag-ammo in case of dire circumstances. Do
you believe as your namesake? Are the untouchables on sound footing with silver?

[my response (5)]
The Lone Ranger certainly used Silver Bullets. Tonto didn't. But I do. Common
GoldBugs would be wise to have a second footing of Ag. It's a no-brainer, that
POS will explode soon, just because of the fundamental shortages. Hopefully,
that will be the ignitor for POG to explode too. But do not bank on it. The GOOP
manipulation of Au is ongoing, and necessary to the Giants. They (I think) will
continue to do their Oil-to-Dollars-to-Gold manipulations as long as they have
excess PFO. Profits from Oil. Remember: There is a point, (about $12/bbl) that
oil production does not generate *excess* profits. At those times, they cease
their GOOP manipulation. Because they have no excess US$ to change to Gold.

Hope these remarks have been helpful to your Quest. And I'd welcome others to
join us, and share their thoughts, suggestions, theorys, facts, and questions.
Even brickbats are welcome along our quest. But beware the Silver Bullets.

Cordially
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

lamprey_65 (01/26/01; 22:49:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46603)
Anyone know the details on this?
http://www.crbindex.com/news/story2203.html
DAVOS: Swiss Central Bank's Roth won't say if rates have peaked
Davos--Jan. 26--Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Jean Pierre Roth said the Switzerland's gold sale is proceeding as planned and the targeted 220 tonnes sales quota will be achieved by the end of March. ( Story .15963 )

-----

Is this 220 tons since the beginning of Swiss selling last year, or have they already placed 220 tons this year? The word "quota" and 220 as a target has me a little confused. Anyone know the details here?

Peter Asher (01/26/01; 21:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46602)
CavenMan

tedw is in the Rouge River Valley area or Grant's Pass, I believe.

There is "Chuck it all and move to the country" factor there. Plenty of clean water and cheap power in Oregon also. Most folks don't find out till after there in that just beneath that cosmetically clean, , love your neighbor, tolerant face; is an ultra conservative , don't let anybody do anything, confiscatory monster.

The safest way to capitalize on a real estate demand boom is to discern the grounds for the trend while the potential buyers are still in denial. Run-away real estate values could be described by John Stewart Mill's (loosely quoted)" New ideas are first met with ridicule, then argument., and finally, acceptance.

Chris Powell (01/26/01; 21:22:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46601)
Off to South Africa in a few hours
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/627
A report from GATA Chairman Bill Murphy
as he departs for South Africa.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com

auspec (01/26/01; 21:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46600)
ThaiGold
Mountain of Shorts?
Thank you, Sir, for your thought provoking dialog. I have always thought of the "mountain of shorts" {paper/derivatives} as a veritable proof that large quantities of gold are NOT AVAILABLE to the assorted suppressors of US$ POG. How does your cycle mechanism of selling/buying back account for the formation/necessity of so many tons of shorts? Shorts NOT nekked?? They simply must be backed by something OTHER than physical gold; i.e.- "full faith and credit" {presses}.

ThaiHoldSilver! Agspec has a few Q about same. Ag & Au have very similar short predicaments as far as COMEX{s}. What OTHER similarities exist as far as a working mechanism used with GOOP? This mechanism, as you explained it, depends on a large supply available of Au/Ag to set the process in motion. There is no AM/PM fix by the R's Bank/London to allow this to take place that I am aware of. LBMA also perform silver miracles? Ag & O,O,O? Bottom line Q.....What do you see as existing/available above ground silver supply??? ThaiHoldSilver.!.Awaaay.. That protagonist had ample supply of Ag-ammo in case of dire circumstances. Do you believe as your namesake? Are the untouchables on sound footing with silver?
So many Q, so little time! Thanks again--- agspec also

Peter Asher (01/26/01; 21:05:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 46599)
HBM re-

>>> Once the velocity of money approaches zero it ceases to be money. Just thinking out-loud. I think I just said something important. Na!<<<

Maybe it is, let's look at it. All money is either under a mattress or in some form of bank ledger. @ zero velocity, it would stay under the mattress and, in the banks, not move from one ledger entry to another. This of course is akin to the concept of infinity; you can approach it but can never get there. Absolute, zero velocity would see some very rotten groceries and some very hungry people; absent any barter activity.

Therefore we could theoretically have a very large money supply chasing at that instant, nothing.

But, that instant would be followed by the banks returning the money up-stream from whence it came so as not to owe interest to the Fed and therefore the money supply would immediately diminish --- Hmm, This could serve as a proof that velocity is senior to quantity in the "Great �Flation Debate."

John Doe (01/26/01; 20:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46598)
NG inflation
Just received my 1/2001 gas bill today and it's a sight. Here in the North Central Plains, residential heating costs are up 120% y/y, and that's with the thermostat turned way down when away. Good thing this won't go into the "core" CPI rate, or "The Maestro" may have to reconsider his wayward policies. If we try hard, I'm sure we can come up with a hedonic substitution to power forced air gas furnaces...maybe hook up directly to the hot air coming out of BLS/CNBC/FED?

Cavan Man (01/26/01; 20:40:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46597)
tedw
Our little hamlet here in the midwest has averaged $8900/year the last five years. I'm surprised at your data. How about selling and lease back? Invest proceeds in treasuries and PM

Peter Asher (01/26/01; 20:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46596)
Journeyman (01/26/01; 19:34:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46592)
(That was some homework assignment!)

Sheese Journeyman, what's gotten into you tonight? Too much TGIF? Your riding around with your lance tip unsheathed!

I was using "Disinflation as a word to describe a diminishing in the rate of inflation itself.

Oxford American, Scott-Forman and Roget's Thesaurus don't even have the word, however Webster's New World has it as "a reduction of the general level of prices, designed to increase purchasing power but prevent deflation." Now that's sort of what your referring to before 1912, but note the word �designed' as if it's being done by whoever, rather than something that occurs.

The Careful Writer, A Modern Guide to English usage, by Theodore M. Bernstein, says the following:

DIS � In word formation the easy way is not always the simple way. The prefix "dis- denoting reversal, removal, or negation, provides an example. Embark means to go aboard a vessel. When it was necessary to convey the reverse of this action, our fore-fathers simply affixed a "dis-" in front of the word and gave us �disembark'. That was the easy way, but it was not a simple, direct approach because it produced a word that really means to go un-aboard a vessel --

So, " reversal, removal or negation" of inflation is described by the word �disinflation' but apparently really means un-inflate.

OK, cool we can all say �uninflation' instead of �disinflation', that's fine; Now, what are you REALLY upset about?

HOOSIER GOLDBUG (01/26/01; 20:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46595)
HOUSING INFLATION!
tedw, glad I wasn't doing the real estate appraisals in your neck of the woods.

tedw (01/26/01; 20:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46594)
Inflation
http://www.usagold.com

I did a study of a small community near where I live in Oregon as part of my work. The study involved homes in the $120,000-$150,000 range. There was consistent, irrefutable evidence that homes were increasing $1500 per month all throughout last year.

While that may not be true of all areas, it certainly a sign of inflation here in my local area.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG (01/26/01; 19:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46593)
LET'S KEEP SPITTING IT OUT!!!!!
Farfel, and all you others KEEP SPITTING IT (IDEAS, SLANTS, VIEWPOINTS, OPINIONS, ETC.)OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Enjoy everybody's views and posts!
Thank you SINCERELY!

Journeyman (01/26/01; 19:34:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46592)
DISinflation - - - YUK!! @Stranger, ALL

Ah, "DISinflation" is DISinformation! Please, folks, refrain from giving aid and comfort to the enemy!! The use of this word in this context is DIStressing.

DISinflation is just a SLIGHTLY lower rate of inflation than you previously got used to accepting as normal. It's a clumsy and DISingenuous attempt to excuse excess fiat monetary creation. It's DISgusting!

REAL DISinflation was previous to 1912 when prices gradually DECLINED - - - because the supply of gold over-all grew a bit more slowly than the over-all supply of goods and services, etc.

Incidentally, despite this monetary deflation (disinflation), this period over-all enjoyed one of the greatest rates of economic expansion ever seen in this country.

By comparison today's DISinflation is DISpicable!

Regards,
Journeyman

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 19:27:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46591)
British Empire +Plus+
Attn: USAGOLD (01/26/01; 17:43:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46587)
...
..
.
Hi MK/USAGOLD:

From my: ThaiGold (01/01/01; 00:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 44802)
My New Millenium Predictions

[snip]
New Common Markets]
Latin America (South, Central, and Mexico) will form a Latin America Common Market.
Call it the LACM. Their Silver based common-valued coin and currencies will provide
the stability for growth and integrity required of them to become vibrant and strong.

Canada, of course, being rich in Precious Metals, will welcome similar revisions
to their coin and currency. Once again they will become proud of their Maple Leaf
coins of Silver and Gold. And Loonies will no longer be looney.

Australia, also rich in PM's, will lead the way to a rebuilt "Common Union" with
Canada, and the United Kingdom. This will be very popular with their citizens,
and as an act of comradarie, assit England (UK) to become strong and prosperous
once again. A new "Empire", based upon Common Markets, and commonized PM money.
[unsnip]

If you roll them all together, it's quite similar to what your post suggests.
It was an excellent post, I thought, at the time. Did anyone read it.?.

Cordially
ThaiGold

Cavan Man (01/26/01; 19:07:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46590)
USAGOLD: GB in EC?
MK-The great prize in this shuffling of the global monetary deck is the UK (sans Ulster thank you very much.) You imply a logistical advantage perhaps not seen since Constantinople and her Byzantine tenants ruled much of the world from the Golden Horn for almost 1000 years. Manchester is a long way from Monterrey; a very long way. The UK trade flows to the East naturally. As usual, your thought is excellent. However, the British being primarily a conservative people will not make a (quantum) leap of faith across the pond I do believe. Rather, they will be a key member of the EC over the long haul. They will need to make the very best deal they can especially since dishoarding precious AU from HM's Treasury. They will be in need of a partner who can add value to them. Could a significantly weakened dollar prove a strong lifeline? The English like us no better than the French or Germans and, they (English) do already have a considerable investment in this country. I say she will
bend to the wishes of her best customers. With so much leverage in the financial communtiy globally, England can and will remain relatively aloof anyway. Just rambling as usual....CM

RossL (01/26/01; 18:02:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46589)
@ HBM, JavaMan
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm

Hill Billy Mitchell # 46583
Concerning the $760 we all missed out on.

After conversing with a lot of people in the ~30+- age group, I have come to the conclusion that they all have charged that $760 to their cards. Most of them have maxed credit cards with no plans to ever pay more than the minimum payment. When I pressed the issue, some admitted that their charge card debt is larger than their 401K.

JavaMan @ # 46581
You must have skimped on the 256mb ram that you now obviously need. <big grin>

Genoo (01/26/01; 17:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46588)
FARFEL #46566
An excellant writeup. I'm sure you speak how many of us think...only you express it so clearly. Personally I gain something from each of your posts that I've read.

USAGOLD (01/26/01; 17:43:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46587)
FOA. . . .Bet
From Mr. Adrian van Eck. . . .

"For example, few people know yet that Codoleeza Rice, G.W. Bush's foreign policy advisor, plans to propose that England -- America's Mother Country -- be invited to join two of its former Colonies -- Canada and the United States -- plus Mexico in NAFTA. The British people are shown by the polls to be against being pulled into the European Monetary Union -- just as they have resisted every effort by Europe to gobble them up, from the invasions by the Romans, Danes, and Normans to the threatened invasions by Napoleon and Hitler. With elections scheduled for this year in England, and the current socialist government trailing badly in the polls, it may be that a new Tory government will be coming to power within months. . .and could be willing, even anxious to form a closer relationship with North America." End

From "The Money Forecast Letter"/Adrian van Eck

As I said, FOA, the fifty-first state. (Smile)

A thought: UK is already part of the European Union where trade barriers have been torn down and goods flow freely as they do between states in the U.S. If UK also joined NAFTA, goods could flow freely from the U.S. to UK to the continent and vice versa What a coup!! (For CPM/USAGOLD included. . .) London would find itself the crossroads of the commercial world between the world's two richest markets.

Additional thought: If Britain becomes so situated (a brilliant stroke), why not keep the pound, do an end run on both the euro and the dollar and make IT the third leg in the reserve currency sweepstakes. Out of nowhere -- the pound -- in which case we are both wrong, FOA. (Cough. . .)

You want to get in on this, CB2, Belgian, et al?

CoBra(too) (01/26/01; 17:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46586)
"Supply Starved Metal" ...
... rose to all time high - Palladium - while GOLD fell to a 16 mth. low 'after a powerful earthquake rocked India's center of bullion trade, Ahmedabad... sad... and cant'u beat this spin? ... Schwachsinn! ... 'u win - hey, you too... cb2

slingshot (01/26/01; 16:46:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46585)
ThaiGold, Next Piece of the Puzzle
ThaiMania Relentless erge to buy Gold.

When you ask?

SWAMIE SAYS YOU MUST GO HIGHER MY SON.

Hill Billy Mitchell (01/26/01; 16:39:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46584)
JavaMan @ # 46581
Sir:
I nearly died laughing. A similar less technical experience occured with my wife. I got her a much faster Compaq laptop about two years ago with lots of speed, bells, whistles, etc. At the same time I upgraded her from Windows 95 to Windows 98. She has never forgiven me.

Respectfully,

HBM

PS: To qualify for on topic: So much for Greenspan's high rate of productivity via technological advances.

Hill Billy Mitchell (01/26/01; 16:30:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 46583)
R Powell (01/26/01; 15:43:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46577
Sir Rich

Concerning the $760 you missed out on. I think my neighbor got yours and mine. As to your question, "Does anyone have a government address or phone number so we can report that we've been overlooked?" If you are adept to lying you can get in on this deal by simply appearing at the nearest welfare office and telling them that you and your poor little children are hungry. They won't check you out. They will walk you right through the tape in short order.

While you are at the helpful office show them some gold. They will no doubt consider you the poorest of the poor.(grin)

BTW, I enjoy your short spurts. I always stop to read when you post.

Respectfully,

HBM

R Powell (01/26/01; 16:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46582)
Farfel

Good to hear from you again. I certainly would like to see your predicted gold appreciation happen but hopefully without economic disaster. If your scenario were to play out as you see it, would you care to venture any guesses as to a time frame? Also, what of silver?
Thanks
Rich

JavaMan (01/26/01; 16:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 46581)
(No Subject)
I had to upgrade my machine at work...gave up my 300 mhz machine for a new 450 mhz machine. Wow, you might think, 150% increase in horsepower. Maybe so, but not 150% in throughput, and that's what counts. You see, my old machine was running Windows NT. My new machine is running Windows 2000.

I was in the process of developing a software application that had performance benchmark messaging, i.e. for different tasks that it accomplished, it prints a message that indicates how many milliseconds the task took to complete.

Well, after moving my application to the new machine, guess what? Tasks that took 4 seconds to complete now take 12 seconds to complete. That's right folks. The wizards at Microsoft have given us a new operating system that requires a supercomputer to run. I increased my processing power by 150% and, thanks to Windows 2000, I have decreased my throughput by 300%. Now there's value!

All I can say to anyone considering the move is...govern yourselves accordingly...

To salvage this as On-Topic, congratulations to you lucky winners. I gave it my best but you "won the gold".

Cavan Man (01/26/01; 16:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46580)
Thought From a Republican Workout
Why are we beholden to the FED Chairman for a reduction in confiscatory tax policies?

BTW, a Republican workout:

Steam + Sauna + Whirlpool + Guinness (Not necessarily in that order; sometimes Guinness is first!)

Hill Billy Mitchell (01/26/01; 16:00:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46579)
Peter Asher @ # 46501
Peter, your offering:

"Hoople & 'flation heads...Hoople Re - inflation index

"Those numbers are real but a true index needs to be apportioned according to the percentage of the average consumers budget they represent. Also, car and home finance are a major part of most people's dollar payout and therefore must be included for a true picture. "Lack of volatility" is no more ground for leaving them out then there is ground for the Fed to leave out food and energy. The cost of making ends meet is what it is. A sudden spike on any particular month will always contribute to emptying that months wallet. Any good or service that creates a noticeable effect on most folks expenditures would be in a valid index...." end of excerpt

In mitigation I think you might have mistook Sir Hoople. I do not think he intended his index to imply that there was scientific validity to his "index". I took it more as a satire used to reveal the lack of scientific validity involved in the gummit numbers. I do believe that what he meant was that his "index" was certainly real as far as he was concerned. Mine is real as far as I am concerned. The gummit's index is real as far as the gummit is concerned. The whole matter is laughable at best. There was a time when the CPI numbers were a serious matter and handled with more integrity than they are today.

Your point in a later post, I believe, that inflation is by nature an increase in the money supply (in excess of real GDP growth)is right on. The excess money will certainly chase something. The velocity of money is never negative. Once the velocity of money approaches zero it ceases to be money. Just thinking outloud. I think I just said something important. Na!

Respectfully,

HBM

CoBra(too) (01/26/01; 15:45:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46578)
Mr. G., Sir ...
... as I was just checking in again, after writing most of the lead article on a Gold Mining Journal - I have to thank you for a trigger of a new thought - I'll tell you asap. regards cb2 ...

This forum is a real treasure trove - thank you all and special thanks to our hard (asset-) nosed host - MK - cb2

R Powell (01/26/01; 15:43:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46577)
Inflation

Stranger, Peter Asher and all
A news item from a Boston, MA. television evening news from last night. Real estate prices (didn't specify residential or commercial) in Boston increased 33% last year. 33% in One year. Is this a result of inflation? *****
Also, concerning the $760 for every man, woman and child, the misses and I haven't recieved our $760 each yet. Does anyone have a government address or phone number so we can report that we've been overlooked? Come to think of it, we didn't get our last payment either. *****
With all this money being created, commodities other than energy and palladium are still depressed. Many grains, critters, fibers and softs along with gold and silver are still near or at multi-year lows.
Increased money supply but only selective price increases?
Happy weekend
Rich

slingshot (01/26/01; 15:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46576)
GREENSPAN, OR IS IT ,MR. WIZARD!
Happen to drop by the WALL MART to pick up a few things and passed by the magazine rack. Low and behold LIKE a neon sign was the magazine sitting out in front call COINage.
Febuary issue. On the cover in bold letters was GOLD bound for a rebound. Further on down the page is,(and this made me laugh out loud) GREENSPAN AND THE GOLDBUGS. You see I had this picture of GOLDBUGS flying around his head and he is trying to swat them off with a copy of the WALL STREET JOURNAL. The article was everything that has been discussed in this forum.
Today I went to the dealer to see what he had in his display. He had plenty of 1/10th and 1/4th but only one half and two 1oz. He said the larger coins are moving much faster, still sales were good. So I picked up some silver since it is not time for me to get gold. Payday nexts week.

Thank you HOOSIER GOLDBUG for the invite. May have to take you up on that sometime.

If Greenspan is Mr.Wizard Then the economy is definitely TOUCHEE TURTLE. He is always screaming, Help me Mr.Wizard Help Me!

Slingshot

CoBra(too) (01/26/01; 15:36:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46575)
GWB and his Team ... Conservative to the Seam!
As it seems the only apointee in the new admin of G. Walker B. not getting congressional approval, yet, seems to be John Ashcroft. May it be that his historical - and heroic - statements towards judicial tyrrany overule constitutional rights before policy objectives, are true. ... If that is so, as I believe it is, I have no doubt the US of A, along with all of us will persevere. Standing ovations to J.A. from abroad!

If only A.G.would have stuck to his six-(interest) smoking guns - he wouldn't be reduced to a pea-shooter - caught in a cookie jar, as one Senator tried to tell him yesterday and as the topic (virtual budget surplus)caught the FED Man on the wrong foot, I've had the impression shame face was desperate to get out from under...and sans any real explantions - the guy actually stuttered - unheard of, I would say? ... Y'oyou kn.kn.kno' go gggggolddd he tried to say? ... as growth is zzzzero, by the way and pppro-dductttivity a dismay to the e-ee-conomineee I did ffforsseee! gee - it's turning out - no down - as faar I can see - gee, never thought of consequences for thee global faamileeee - eeehhh - d'y'a seee?
Get reality check - mate?!? Not so great - cb2

Mr Gresham (01/26/01; 15:34:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46574)
ThaiGold (smileysmilesmilesmiley)
ThaiGold (01/26/01; 09:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46538)
Who you calling lemmings? I represent that remar-a-a-i-e-e-y-y-y. (Kerplunk. Or is it "Splash?" Any Norwegians around here who've witnessed this?)

Actually, you gotta figure that SOME lemmings don't go along for that "picnic to Grandma's house." I thought we was them?

(Well, maybe it's the ones who get lost on the way, lose their directions, or just oversleep from the party the night before, who survive to reproduce the next generation of furry little conformists?)

Mr Gresham (01/26/01; 15:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46573)
Black Blade
A veritable Paul Revere! Thanks for keeping us alert.

Power grid blackout during the Super Bowl?

Preposterous!!! Why that's as unlikely as an earthquake during the World Series! (grin)

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/26/01; 15:11:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46572)
Hear ye! Hear ye! One phase of this past week's contest has reached the "metal" ceremony
Last Friday, MK made a declaration from the the Castle walls that there should be a contest of erudite prediction for the year ahead, and one other of marksmanship for the week ahead. We now have the final results, as the closing COMEX February gold target has been revealed. Silence please while I read from the official parchment:
-----
[FWN] New York--Jan. 25--COMEX Feb gold settled down $1.9 at $262.9 per ounce, after falling to a 16-month low of $262.0 on continuation charts, amid fund selling and as funds rolled over into the Apr contract.
-----
Placing their arrows nearest the mark, we have these three fine gentlemen, and the missives provided at the time they took aim:

>>>========= $261.90 ==========>
"The speculators in the hedge funds will hammer the price down and run some sell stops at the COMEX this week. On Friday afternoon, buyers of physical will happily purchase their gold coins at an exchange rate referenced to the paper gold price of $261.90 per troy ounce."
--RossL (01/23/01; 16:49:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46259)

>>>===========$263,50=============>
"There will be a downdraft to this price because the short traders cannot allow a perception that the gold trade will be different under George than it was under Bill. The long traders will fight to hold the recent low price. Perhaps after a week or two of this struggle things will be different."
--SEER (1/23/2001; 8:45:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46220)

>>>============= $263.80 =================>
"Reasons given for any guess are based on mere conjecture, not fact. The POG has not reflected gold's true value for years. Unless you are the most influential puppetmaster, the POG is usually as predictable as the direction of the wind at any given moment."
--Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/22/01; 22:51:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46189)

As you can see, they all had a good grasp for the means in which price discovery belies the physical fundamentals, providing this attractive acquisition period for all those with understanding of the wider field of play in this realm of gold.

But getting right to it, Congratulations are hereby extended to Sir SEER who struck closest with his arrow, and with these words shall also go ownership of the tenth-ounce gold prize! "Send word to the vault guardsmen...our postmaster is coming down for a withdrawal!"

Stay tuned for further announcements as the essay judging continues...

Also, all first-time posters during the contest period (Jan 19th -23rd) will be awarded a one ounce silver Eagle. To qualify for the prize, they must e-mail jill@usagold.com notification citing the message number of that first post. (She will check each first-time poster's claim, so don't believe you can get one by us...you rascals.)

Mr Gresham (01/26/01; 15:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46571)
On Being "Early"
Two thoughts:

(1) If you're two years too early into a wealth-preserving investment, what have you lost? The answer is based on "What were your alternative choices to hold assets in?"

Without getting too long-winded here, I think the benchmark for most "safety"-seeking investors would be T-bills. So I figures, 2 years x 5% = 10%. That's the opportunity cost.

(2) If you mark your gold to market, 2 years = about -10%. That's the capital loss.

City Hall, post-LTCM crisis, has clipped you for about 20% total. That, IMO, represents most of the risk side of your risk/reward calculation two years back.

Could be more downside? Sure, but another 2 years (10%)? Another 10% down? NBL (Not Bloody Likely), or at least not as likely as last time around. I don't think there is a capitulation wave out there of frustrated physical holders who will dump it down to $240. They're gone already. And TPTB are only winding the paper catapult tighter if they paper it down that far.

Ask coin dealers who's selling. Estate sales, yes. Sons selling off Dad's stash. That's your "capitulation".

Sorry to all those whose principles led them to take a stand in 1980, or in 1996. Early can hurt. .Gov's got some 'splaining to do. Makes you wonder what a "fair" world would look like...

Topaz (01/26/01; 14:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46570)
Thai
Hi Thai,
Having a little posting frenzy aren't we??
Your preferred monicker "ThaiRealEstate"(sp) deserves a closer look though.
The term Real Estate is a misnomer that, like many other expressions in common use has gained unthinking acceptance in society.
Given the "accepted meaning" ie: Property, a more accurate term might be "decreed tenure estate" in that your entitlement to same is only as effective as the system that supports it.
The ONLY world class "REAL" Estate is GOLD - held close!

lamprey_65 (01/26/01; 14:03:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46569)
Just another example of the problem
10/14/94 - CRB at 228.26
10/14/94 - Gold at $387.50

1/25/01 - CRB at 228.35
1/25/01 - Gold at $264.95

Nope, something ain't right.

lamprey_65 (01/26/01; 13:50:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46568)
Raspberry, et al
Anyone who thought post-January 1996 showed a great opportunity to buy gold really did not know what they were doing. We had a false breakout in gold after a multi-year basing at the $380 level. Now, yes, I do believe the rally should have continued, but the fact remains that it didn't -- it failed miserably and began a multi-year bear market in gold.

The Asian crises did nothing to help gold's prospects...the dollar was surging as wealth flowed into the U.S. for "safekeeping". I made a mistake by switching some of my funds to gold in the summer of '97. I screwed up and I now understand what I did wrong.

Commodities did not bottom until early '99, this is when oil and then the CRB began moving higher. This is also when I should have begun switching to gold. Historically, gold either leads or rises in tandem with the CRB...the fact that it didn't this time speaks volumes about the current paper markets. Ask Julian Robertson as he got burned also (Normandy Mining).

Fighting City Hall...yep, there really is a time and place and you sure don't want to be extremely early. Still I like the gold sector even more than I did last year at this time. If I have to say this same thing again next January, fine...I can live with that (if I have to ;-)

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/26/01; 13:49:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46567)
raspberry...a golden parable
Your words: "After the 1996 election, my contrarion nature led me to gold, and these forums. I have never been more frustrated in my life! These PM's are clearly not in "markets," but are clearly in "politics." ...... I have lost many clients who have lost patience with me, and I have lost patience with the lack of discernible free markets in PM's."

I can certainly see where one in your line of work could lose clients in this protracted environment when they are armed with little understanding of the big picture. One of my motivations for posting here is to share my personal view of that "big picture" with others in hopes of building the requisite "understanding" for stress-free participation in these events. You see, I have been fortunate enough through some quirk of fate and determination to sit atop a Tower here which offers a fine view of the horizon in all directions.

I would choose today to describe the big picture with the story of Apollo 13. Imagine being a passenger when the system failure occurred. You originally climbed on board this vessel with enthusiastic thoughts of a trip to the Moon for the sake of forever after enhancing your life on Earth. But now with this unexpected trouble, you find yourself promptly wishing for a direct return to the way things once were, to share the fate of all others "safe" on Earth.

Now imagine that you are not informed (or do not seek to get informed) by those with a good handle on this unfolding mission. Thus with little understanding of the big picture, imagine your increasing anxiety as you see that, instead of promptly reversing course when the planned event was struck by this unforeseen ill fortune, the ship CONTINUES on its trajectory AWAY from safe mother Earth even as conditions deteriorate! Good heavens -- for miles in all directions!

You see, it is better to work within the laws of physics than against them. Having just a little grasp of the big picture allows one to ride this mission out with calm understanding, reaching both the Moon AND a life on Earth -- made better for having endured the whole trip. Anyone who might have panicked at that first sign of trouble would be lost in space. Simple understanding can both keep you calm through the tense parts, and help to guide your own necessary actions to pull you through. NASA does not qualify astronauts for space flight on the sole basis that the astronaut has blind faith. Likewise, you must work to build your client's level of understanding. So roll up your sleeves.

Farfel (01/26/01; 13:28:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46566)
What is about to happen to Gold?
As many of you know, I have been largely silent over the past month or
so concerning the gold market.

On the one hand, I have been distracted by my own personal/business
affairs; on the other, I have been wary of posting my ideas about gold
at this time as I feel we are entering a very precarious period in the
financial progress of this nation.

However, I received a yesterday today earnestly asking me for my thoughts,
and decided to make a public response.

So let me begin at the beginning...some three years ago, I first
forecast that this nation would move into a period of tremendous
stagflation, the mother of all stagflations, and I made this forecast to
the jeers and derision of many of gold's detractors. In their mind,
stagflation was a "Jimmy Carter" kind of thing, and could never manifest
again in our modern "enlightened" Clintonian age.

Well, I was right (albeit early AGAIN) in my prognostications. The signs are
now evident that a classic stagflation is developing, with surging
sectoral inflations occurring simultaneously with a general economic
slowdown. At the same time, essential commodities (e.g. potable water,
electricity, natural gas, gasoline, platinum palladium, etc.) are moving
into shortage, resulting in rapidly escalating prices.

In Jimmy Carter's day, the response to stagflationary conditions was a RISE in interest rates, in
order to cap demand for these vital commodities, and bring them back
into surplus. In fact, that is the hallmark of most stagflations: rising interest rates occurring in conjunction with slowing growth. THAT is the most notable anomaly of any stagflation, since normally, slowing growth is accompanied by FALLING interest rates.

Rather than respond to stagflation in a "normal" fashion, Al Greenspan is opting for a REDUCTION
in interest rates, resulting in increased aggregate demand...a very
perplexing response given that increased demand is truly the last thing the
government should encourage at a time of vital commodity shortages.
Moreover, a US reduction in interest rates, if not accompanied by
simultaneous interest rate reductions in other countries, ultimately
results in the weakening of the heretofore strong US dollar, the
linchpin of the US financial markets.

The difference in response seems to lie in the biases of the two
respective presidents. Carter was NEVER Wall Street's favorite whore,
and his actions were effected in order to do what is best for Main
Street. On the other hand, Greenspan's entire focus has been doing what
is best for his bullion bank buddies on Wall Street, and if any benefits
flow down to Main Street, well, that's sufficient (and nice) though not necessary.

What will gold/gold stocks do in this Mother of stagflations?

Historically, during the Carter era, gold experienced something in the
order of a 400% explosion in its price, and mostly unhedged gold stocks benefited
accordingly..

However, today, although there are similarities to the Carter period,
there are notable distinctions, and those distinctions will likely
result in something in the order of a 1000% increase in the price of
gold, and an even greater increase in select gold stocks that are primarily
unhedged.

Most of gold's detractors warn that a potential collapse in the bubble
stock markets will harm gold/gold stocks. They posit that
gold will collapse for the following primary reasons:

1) Drop in aggregate demand resulting from collapsed stock and/or bond markets will reduce global demand for gold in jewelry and other industrial uses.

2) Deleveraging of the average investor, corporation, or government will result in panic, emergency sales of stored gold to raise liquidity for debt repayment.

In fact, historically, gold and gold stocks have often dropped in conjunction with a falling stock market, although at the same time, they have been the first assets to rebound strongly after the initial downturn, even while other non-gold assets languish or continue to fall.

HOWEVER, we are facing several aberrations in the gold market today such that history CANNOT serve as a proper guide to gold's future performance during a general stock market/bond market implosion.

These aberrations are as follows:

1) An enormous short position in gold carried by the bullion banks. NO such short position (approx. 10,000 tons, equivalent to almost 4 years of annual global gold production) has ever existed on this enormous scale in the entire history of the gold market. So, if we see a condition of simultaneously collapsing bond and stock markets (plus a collapse in the US Dollar, a phenomenon that may either precipitate or be a consequence of any collapse in US financial markets) then precious metals will likely become the only logical remaining asset to attract any surplus capital in the economy. As wealthy holders of surplus capital move it into precious metals, and furthermore, if the economic turmoil results in a demand for possession of the physical metal, then this will cause a major short squeeze on the heavily short bullion banks who can only be saved by central banks/institutions/individuals releasing abundant quantities of physical gold into the marketplace.

Unfortunately for the gold short bullion banks, most central banks that have desired to sell real physical gold have already seemingly done so, while those that remain gold-holders seem strongly committed to maintaining a minimum hard asset reserve against their currencies. At the same time, after a very lengthy 20 year gold bear market, here in America, we are left today with a relatively small population of individual and instituional gold owners -- one MUCH smaller (on a percentage basis) than existed during the Crash of '29 (when the Gold Standard still existed) or the Carter Era (when the Cold War kept many people invested in US dollar alternatives).

Although no doubt some contemporary gold owners maintain investments in bubble equities and bonds, the mindset of goldbugs and goldbug institutions appears to be "anti-spec" and they appear to lean toward ownership of low pe, low debt hard asset stocks, and short term treasuries or bonds. As a result, any financial panic should result in a very nominal dishoarding of gold assets by both individuals and institutions here in America.

In foreign countries, personal and institutional dishoarding of gold should be fairly subdued, especially if unusual weakness in the US dollar is occurring at the time of any financial storm. With a dropping US dollar, there will be little to no incentive to race to US dollars as a safety haven.

As it stands, central banks, institutions, and individuals hold an aggregate gold stock of some 130,000 tons. They would have to sell almost 10% of that hoard immediately in order to satisfy the bullion banks' current gold short position PLUS feeding gold inventory into the marketplace to appease sudden demands for gold (instead of US dollars) during a US financial storm. Most unlikely!

2) Today gold is an asset in true scarcity, especially relative to the superabundant supply of US dollars in the world. The percentage of the population holding gold, in either individual or institutional form, is much smaller today than any other time in history. As such, gold should adhere to "the Law of Scarcity," that posits that any asset in scarcity (gold) will likely appreciate more and become more valuable over time than the asset in relative abundance (the US dollar).

Overhedged gold stocks (such as Barrick and Anglogold) will present new wrinkles to the current gold market as well. After all, historically, we have never seen gold companies that have hedged several years of future precious metal production at price levels that surely will prove to be too low during any gold price rocket-shot... and so when the gold price suddenly erupts, then one can only presume that various overhedged gold producers will be in big financial trouble, having to deliver massive amounts of gold that they will be forced to buy in the marketplace at whatever price gold commands at the time, instead of having the "convenience" of providing a slow steady delivery from their mines.

Although several collapsing gold mining companies might serve to scare away potential investors, I believe that there will be sufficient numbers of healthy gold companies doing so well during a gold price eruption that any potential stigma to gold mining investment will be overcome immediately.

In conclusion, utilizing the same logic that allowed me to predict correctlly the fast developing stagflation we are seeing in America today, I can safely predict that we are on the verge of a gold/gold stock buy panic that will amaze not only gold's detractors, but also its true believers.

Although such price escalation would most likely result in various governments effecting gold confiscation, price caps, or some other form of gold price suppression, nevertheless, I am willing to bet that there are enough super-wealthy, powerful individuals and institutions now quietly and safely invested in gold who are sure to profit from gold's stratospheric ascent, and they will be able to preclude any inevitable governmental actions to suppress gold long enough to make incredible killings.

Thanks

F*

TheStranger (01/26/01; 13:20:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46565)
Shermag, Peter and raspberry
Shermag - You said it, Brother.

Peter - That is how I would define inflation, yes, though my dictionary makes no such distinction. For what it is worth, U.S. M-3 growth in 2000 was 9.5%, well above the growth in "quantity of product". In 1999, M-3 growth, as I recall, was close to 11%, more than double the growth in GDP. This explains why last year's CPI and PPI scored their biggest gains in ten years, just as I predicted they would.

Lately, of course, GDP growth has decelerated to 0%, and, as Shermag points out, M-3 growth is exceeding 20%. This is why those who are betting that the slowing economy will temper the inflation threat are dead wrong! Just like last year, real relative growth in the money stock will result in rising prices. Look for a 5%+ PPI by the end of the year.

raspberry - you and me both, Pal!

Mr Gresham (01/26/01; 12:52:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46564)
Welcome, raspberry
"Patience" is the word, all right. But isn't it the ultimate job of the contrarian to figure out when to buck City Hall, as well as the markets?

City Hall has nothing special over the markets but the fiat franchise, and the taxing power over its subjects. Hmmmm, come to think of it, that's a lot!

But eventually, City Hall blows even those advantages. In fact, it is programmed to do so, with almost the regularity, if not the frequency, of markets.

Especially if City Hall is a wholly-owned and -operated subsidiary of players who also operate in the markets. They will use it, then discard it when appropriate. Talk about synergy! (for them)

Calling City Hall's occasional bust-ups requires one to be a "political investment advisor," not just an "investment advisor". I'm sorry, but if that's the game that's going on, then that's what it takes to protect clients' and your own wealth.

If one's survival or future well-being are in the crosshairs, you must put aside identification with your inherited "City Hall" entity, and act as if it means you no good. That's hard, I know. Indoctrination works.

For five years, we have thought like contrarian fundamentalists (of the market type.) We did not learn to think like thieves (too much conscience at work, probably), but we are working hard at it here, in good company.

MO VER MEG (01/26/01; 12:39:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46563)
RASPBERRY
I too remember back around 1996 when after looking at the gold market decided it was due to climb. Accordingly, I bought in and have bought in again and again (you know - all those wonderful buying opportunities). Just like you, my patience has been tested extensively.

I am currently split equally - between metals and equities and equally - between gold and silver.

Hang in there. I believe we can see this thing through and make some money.

Which Kaplan are you referring to?

Leigh (01/26/01; 12:26:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46562)
Andrea Mitchell Tells the Truth
http://www.newsmax.com
Newswoman Andrea Mitchell, wife of Alan Greenspan (Maestro of the Universe) has disputed claims that the White House was trashed eight years ago by outgoing Bush, Sr. staffers. She said that she covered the White House back then, and that no vandalism happened.

Thank you, Ms. Mitchell, for telling the truth in an easily-understood way!

Christopher (01/26/01; 12:12:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46561)
Turkeys can not fly Thaigold msg#46519
Wrong my friend,
Can and do, as high as they desire.
Thaidoberman would never get close enough to a wild turkey to do any damage. Their eyesight is phenomenal, they do not miss a trick, nor a dog. These turkeys you are talking about, they don't happen to be white do they?

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/26/01; 12:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46560)
In the vault of the ECB and member banks
Here in The Tower I have had the Consolidated Financial Statement of the Eurosystem (as of 19 January 2001) laying on my desk for the larger part of this week, so I apologize for only now finding time to assemble this summary.

As expected, the gold assets held steady at 118.6 billion euros from the previous reporting week.

Looking to their paper holdings in contrast, the net position in foreign currency assets were in line for another decline (by 0.7 billion euros) due to customer and portfolio transactions by the member Central Banks, but thanks to an increase in their account of receivables from the IMF of nearly 1.4 billion euros, the net change in value of foreign paper held increased by 0.7 billion to 260.9 billion euros.

Peter Asher (01/26/01; 12:09:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46559)
Stranger
Re >>> new money created, regardless of price(interest rate charged), is by definition Inflation. <<<

Increase in money supply exceeding increase in *quantity* of product would be required to have an empirical �inflation' per MS definition; True?

Also, as the cost of credit is the prime factor in money economic rent, I see lower interest rates as a strong and significant DISinflationary component."

Re >>> am not sure if your question sought an answer or was merely rhetorical, <<< Not at all, I see the "Flation" question as the lynchpin of the economic quandary underlying that of Gold. It is my personal "hobby horse" in the ongoing Forum discussion. (Along with political and ethical causes)

raspberry (01/26/01; 12:07:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46558)
patience
I am a professional investment advisor, and have been one for over 23 years. Over the years I have done consistently well by being a contrarion. I was in the business during the last hard asset bull market (late 70's, early 80's), and did very well by fighting consensus and buying dollar denominated assets. After the 1996 election, my contrarion nature led me to gold, and these forums. I have never been more frustrated in my life!
These PM's are clearly not in "markets," but are clearly in "politics." It has become clear to me that you and I are fighting "City Hall," and you know the old saying, "Don't fight City Hall. I have lost many clients who have lost patience with me, and I have lost patience with the lack of discernible free markets in PM's. Your/our information may be correct, but market savy leaves a lot to be desired! Kaplan seems to be the only one with common sense.

Mr Gresham (01/26/01; 11:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 46557)
Pandagold: Is THIS who you're thinking of? ;) smile ;)!
http://www.seattleweekly.com/features/0015/features-miller.shtml
{set SMILEALERT ON}

[call SMILEALERT]

Pandagold: "Now who would flood the market with gold (or try to?)
There is no one more powerful than those who run the show.
Are you getting there? I believe you are smart to enough to be getting the picture."

Article:

"SW: Does that mean you're a conservative investor yourself?

"POD: Tech stocks only comprise a small portion of my portfolio. I prefer to fund our expansion with more fungible, recession-proof assets; most of my holdings are in gold, plus some collectible baseball cards. "

(smile)

[end SMILEALERT]

{set SMILEALERT OFF}

Shermag (01/26/01; 11:52:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46556)
More enlightenment on M-3 growth
Using Randy's and The Stranger's data on M-3, this calculates to a growth rate over 8 weeks at an annualized rate of 21.8%, and over the recent week at an annualized rate of 30.6%. Simply astounding!

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/26/01; 11:49:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46555)
Can't print gold
[Bridge] Johannesburg--Jan. 26--About 750 miners were rescued after an earth tremor at the Buffelsfontein mine, belonging to South African gold producer Durban Roodepoort Deep, including an employee earlier thought to be missing, a spokesperson for DRD said Friday. The tremor, measuring up to 3.4 on the Richter scale, occurred at between 1115 local time and 1130 on Thursday, the spokesperson added.

[Bridge] Johannesburg--Jan. 26--Two gold miners died and another was injured in a rockfall after an earth tremor at the Savuka mine Friday morning, according to AngloGold, the owners of the mine. According to an AngloGold statement, the injured miner is in a satisfactory condition in hospital.

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 11:38:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46554)
Panda
... Off With Your Head ...
And now, I'm off to Bed.

Sokratez (01/26/01; 11:34:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46553)
Systemizing our newssources! Let's connect us..
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/news-center
Hi

Here and on many forums, Gold-eagle, kitcoI+II, etc. many interested people follow
the financial markets and quote the breaking
news and other topics of interest to make
it read by others...

I thought about connecting "US" through an
effective way.. inspired by the gata-egroup... I founded an egroup for "independent
information and news"...

Throw away the chains of CNN, CNBC etc....

..have a look and take part:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/news-center

Randy (@ The Tower) (01/26/01; 11:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46552)
Misc. monetary monitoring....Fed adds reserves, Treasury buys back own debt, money supply swells
Yesterday, the Fed reported its measurements of the money-supply aggregates...all up nicely. No surprise there to anyone following these pages. TheStranger gave you a glimpse of M-3 in an earlier post. Here is the rest of this limited picture ("limited" because these numbers do not capture all that is looming overseas).

($ expressed in billions)
M-1 = 1,087.9 ......up 6.2
M-2 = 4,984.7 ......up 10.2
M-3 = 7,156.6 ......up 36.7

And despite the abundance, the Fed was forced to engage in open market operations to provide additional reserves to the banking system. Yesterday the Fed used overnight repurchase agreements to add $6.75 billion, collateralized by a two-to-one mix of Treasuries and federal agency securities.

Mere patchwork. Today the Fed again jumped in, opting for 6-day repos to provide another $4.0 billion in temporary reserves with a three-to-one mix of Treasuries to agencies involved in the open market operation.

Also in there stirring the pot was the Treasury Department, acting yesterday to buy back $1.0 billion in debt.

Pandagold (01/26/01; 11:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46551)
ThaiGold oo-oops sorry
Sorry Thaigold I left out half your name in my previous posting

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 11:24:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46550)
ThaiHoldSilver.!. Awaaay...
... Tigers can't change their stripes ... Posting Handles Neither ...
auspec (01/26/01; 11:02:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46547)
auspec:
You ask which is out of place.?. "Thai-gold", the kind they use for jewelry and
money (yes, money) in Thailand, will be forever thus. I admire that stability
and wholesome truthfulness. They are not fooled. They are not suckered. Their
(and most Asian societies) are on a real everyday no nonsense Gold Standard.
To them, POG in Dollars or EUROs matters not a twit. It's how much rice can
you buy for a gram. Or from a single link of a neck chain.

So in that respect, I prefer to keep the handle as is "ThaiGold". Nothing says
it better. But if you force me to change it, I'll take: "ThaiRealEsate". Yes.!.

TheStranger (01/26/01; 11:22:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46549)
Peter
I am not sure if your question sought an answer or was merely rhetorical, but I would argue that any new money created, regardless of price(interest rate charged), is by definition INflation.

As to the smallish 4 and 5-year increases in vehicle MSRPs, remember, it is only in the past two years that we have seen a reversal in the 18-year disinflationary trend in the United States. 1998, in fact, was marked by a slight annual DEFLATION at the producer price level. (The CPI got very low that year but did not go negative arguably because consumer prices include more services, which do not respond as readily to gains in productivity). Furthermore, strength in the U.S. dollar during 1999 and 2000 subdued the price of the foreign components in those vehicles. This does not mean that higher U.S. productivity has not played a role. It has. But, as good as the productivity gains have been, they are nowhere near enough to sop up the explosion in money supply we are now experiencing.

Pandagold (01/26/01; 11:21:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46548)
Thai Messge 46534

You have set me a puzzler there - not how to find the answer, but how to explain it. Give me a little time, but the first thing to remember is this- GOLD is NOT just a commodity. It is important to understnad that.

The next thing to understand is - who owns and controls the most gold. Remember 'He (they) who has the gold makes the rules. And I mean - MAKES THE RULES!

Now who would flood the market with gold (or try to?)
There is no one more powerful than those who run the show.
Are you getting there? I believe you are smart to enough to be getting the picture.

The problem with most people is they just can't see BIG enough. We have been programmed to think small.

More later - stay tuned

auspec (01/26/01; 11:02:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46547)
ThaiGold
Thai"Gold"?
Hoping to get Another question in while class is still in session? loping ahead a few paces: 1. You don't see the GOOP {GOOOP?} being busted anytime soon. 2. "Their" hoards are large and growing. 3. You go by ThaiGold nevertheless.
Which of these 3 items seems out of place WITHIN THE PARAMETERS SO FAR GIVEN?
It's not ThaiSilver or ThaiEuro or ThaiOil or ThaiNWO. So what is the next piece of the puzzle if I may so inquire?

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 10:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46546)
Vision Quest... Sucker Rallies: NASDAQ; DOW; and Gold
... Different Strokes, by Different Folks ...
As you ride your Pony(s) looking for more Truths in your Gold Vision Quest,
let your thoughts wander to the familiar "Sucker Rally". Those legendary
traps of the NASDAQ and DOW manipulators. For in order for something to be
slammed DOWN, by the vicious Shorters, they must first Rally it UP. That
draws in the Suckers. The little guys. The greedy. The Lemmings. For it is
their hard earned Bucks which nourish the Giants. And how are such Rallies
accomplished.?. Simply by a concert of media hype; PR mis-information; and
wishful WordFests. Relentlessly. Works every time. Doesn't it, DotComFools.

Next, consider the frequent miniscule Gold Rallies. Difference is sleight.
(pun intended). To manipulate POG DOWN, they must first manipulate it UP.
But not enough to cause a blowup to their schemes. Just a little rally. A
few bucks. Maybe a week. Maybe a month. Then, when the Suckers have once
again gotten their hopes up and their money in. Whamo.!. Pull the rug out
from under them one more relentless time. After time. After time. How can
so many, be so fooled, so often.?. And so well. Different strokes.?.

It's easy. Just get yourself some clever writers, and preach to the choir.
Anywhere that GoldBugs congregate. For they are all ears. And await eagerly
(and believe wholeheartedly) that which they want to hear. "Gold is going
to the Moon.!. Get you some now. Get more. Look... see it's up a tick. That
20-cent move yesterday is a new Trend. Fasten your seatbelts. Who knows,
it may even skyrocket. To $29,999/oz. Someday".. "Or zero first." Whatever.
There's never a better time to buy Gold. Especially the Paper gold. But you
beware. That's only for the greedy. The unclean. The gambler. The Friend
of the Trend". But you are not so naive. Nor greedy. That's only the other
guys. The Suckers. Who will soon be fleeced. In the next Gold Rally.

So, beware of False Prophets. For they bring upon you, Falser Profits. And
question mildly, their motives; methods; and agendas. For they may not be
what you think them to be. Think for yourself. Would you have another to
choose your Bride.?. Or your Homesite.?. Or your Retirement Savings.?.

These are Truths, that you come here to learn. Open your eyes. In this
Gold Vision Quest. See the light. Study the dropping along the Trail. You
will soon learn, as your experience grows, the nature of the beast. Learn
the difference: Between a Giant; or a Sasquatch. Lemming or Squirrel. It's
up to you.

ThaiGold

Peter Asher (01/26/01; 10:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46545)
Subject for below
TheStranger msg#: 46536)

auspec (01/26/01; 10:48:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46544)
ThaiGold
Who Are The Suckers?
Per your post #46503: "Not exactly. They don't "make their profit in gold". They make it in US$ (and
to a very minor degree, EUROs too). It is when they *convert/exchange* those
fiat profits for the real thing (gold), that their method depresses the POG.
It sounds backwards, doesn't it.?. You'd think them purchasing that much
gold on the market would RAISE the POG. It doesn't.!. Because of their clever
tactic of using their previous gold hoards to flood the market(s) temporarily,
then, with exquisite timing, buy it all back, plus the next-wanted quantity,
at (viola.!.) rock bottom ("manipulated") POG prices. Who are the suckers.?" END

The "suckers" are basically anyone foolish enough to sell their gold at these artificial prices. This is clearly the spec longs frightened out of the markets, but also includes the miners who are digging up artificially cheap gold for these wise ones. Any small country connived out of their national treasure. Basically all SELLERS! This answers the question also of WHO is buying all this gold.

Peter Asher (01/26/01; 10:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46543)
(No Subject)

Re- >>>This week's money supply numbers are in. M-3 was up $36.7 billion. That brings the 8-week total to $214 billion, or $760.00 for every man, woman and child in America, a rate of growth perhaps never witnessed before in American history.<<<

The new car and truck purchase in msg#: 46501 resulted in $11,000 new money supply being issued and $14,000 of existing debt being replaced @ approximately 2.5% lower interest. That and the money brought in by the sale of the trade-ins pays for $ 45,000 (invoice) of production in Japan and Detroit. So, if this is put in play by 1) the loaners of capital receiving a lower rate of return and 2) we have a lower monthly payment; which �Flation is it?

BTW, MSRP for equivalent vehicle and model was +10% over four years for the Ford truck and Five years for the Subaru Legacy

Cavan Man (01/26/01; 10:37:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46542)
USAGOLD
MK: In a recent conversation we discusssed how much of what Another revealed in his early dialogues has come to pass. May I suggest, as your time permits, you recap and elaborate on same? Thanks....CM

auspec (01/26/01; 10:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46541)
ThaiGold
Hunting Turkeys at Night?
Modified post of #45479:

GATA/Internet/Truth/Light/Right/Freedom/Free Market Forces

vs.

IMF/BIS/LBMA/COMEX/ESF/CFR/CIA/CBs/BBs/FED/Treas/FK/Under-ground Markets incl drugs/"Justice System"/Rothschilds Rockies & Fiends/Spiritual Darkness Organizations/NEW WORLD ORDER ORGANIZATION & FUNDING

Black Blade (01/26/01; 09:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46540)
RE: Stock, Lies, and Ticker Tape
Interesting analogy. Crop Turkeys (lemming-like masses) following the herd mentality, vs. Wild Turkeys (sovereign individuals) that think and act for themselves. Cool!

Time to get some work done, later.

The Hoople (01/26/01; 09:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46539)
Peter Asher
I meant "excluding non-volatile mortgage and car payment" as parody of CPI and PPI. I realize any valid index should include all budget items. It is, however, more shocking for some people to see a specific portion of their budget to get a better understanding of why they are going broke. Most people on this forum site are intelligent and don't require budget 101, I mainly intend to use this as exercise for my employees and friends. Thanks for comments .

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 09:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46538)
FootPrints of .... Lemmings
auspec (01/26/01; 08:59:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46533)
auspec:
[quote]
THANK YOU! I have been patiently awaiting your tutelage. My pony is still resting as instructed, but cannot help but comment how much larger the LBMA is compared to Comex. It again seems that all roads lead to ...............London.
[unquote]

Now. Quickly.!. Mount your Pony. Scout towards London.
Keep a sharp eye cast along the ground. Soon you will see a
path that I have stumbled across. FootSteps. Many of them.
Deep in the soft soil. They are heavily laden with their gold.
Yes. Of giants. Perhaps you will then see for yourself, these
FootSteps, or those of Another Giant. Laden with his Gold
and an even weightier Agenda. They are clear to me. And
look closer: More FootSteps. Of the Lemmings that follow.

ThaiGold

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/26/01; 09:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46537)
ThaiGold, not all Turkeys are created equal
There are many more "crop" turkeys than wild. Crop turkeys have had all the instinct and common sense bred out of them. They are fat, cannot fly, completely dependent upon a handout to eat, and uncontrollably herd into a corner at the slightest provocation (such as a low flying plane), killing many of them in the process. The wild turkey goes it alone, surviving upon instinct and experience, all the while living life on its own terms, creating a legacy to be proud of. The crop turkey is the common stock investor, fed by the media and tax laws, forever dependent, always being herded this way and that..... their final low flying plane is on route and on schedule. I proudly stand as one WILD TURKEY, unabashedly bullish on GOLD!

TheStranger (01/26/01; 09:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46536)
Inflation Update
This week's money supply numbers are in. M-3 was up $36.7 billion. That brings the 8-week total to $214 billion, or $760.00 for every man, woman and child in America, a rate of growth perhaps never witnessed before in American history.

Last year, even official numbers put U.S. inflation at their highest levels in a decade. This year they will be higher still.

Black Blade (01/26/01; 09:11:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46535)
California goes on high alert again Just hours after warning was lifted, energy crisis continues
http://www.msnbc.com/msn/512303.asp
MSNBC News Services SACRAMENTO, Calif., Jan. 26 � California's power supply fell to dangerously low level again early Friday, just hours after the warning had been lifted for the first time in 11 days.

THE STAGE 3 ALERT, the most serious energy alert that means power reserves are so low that there is a good chance of blackouts, was lifted one minute before midnight Thursday. But the California Independent System Operator, which runs the state power grid, reinstated the Stage 3 alert at 4:32 a.m. PT, and said it would run through midnight Friday. The stage 2 alert that had been in effect from midnight to 4:32 a.m. meant power officials can still order service shut down to customers that have agreed to curtail energy in a crisis. There was no immediate word on why the Stage 3 alert was called. Energy managers had earlier suggested they might even be able to go to a Stage 1 alert later Friday, in which people are simply advised to conserve energy. As Friday began, the biggest threat of the day to most power users appeared to be a heavy winter storm that brought driving rain to San Francisco and several inches of snow to the Sierra Nevada. It knocked out power to more than 40,000 users in Sonoma and Marin counties and parts of the Sierra foothills as it lumbered toward Southern California.

The reinstatement of the alert came as legislators and regulators grappled with solutions to the state's energy crisis, blamed on a deregulation program that went awry. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that if the crisis isn't resolved soon, it could cause a ripple effect throughout the U.S. economy that could undermine the nation's decade-long expansion. "It's scarcely credible that you can have a major economic problem in California which does not feed to the rest of the 49 states," Greenspan said in congressional testimony, adding that the crisis could reduce investment in the West, which in turn could shake consumer confidence. He called the situation "a significant problem that this country is going to have to address, and ... rather quickly." System operators, meanwhile, said as many as 1,000 megawatts of electricity � enough to power one million homes � were saved each day this week through conservation.

Last week, in the midst of a record 10 straight days of Stage 3 alerts, power had to be shut off to hundreds of thousands of users across central and northern California on two consecutive days. Many more large users, those who had signed agreements to shut off their power during a shortage in exchange for lower rates, also lost electricity for hours at a time. Representatives of many of them were in San Francisco on Friday to lobby the state Public Utilities Commission to let them out of those agreements. "What we are stuck with is a program that was put together prior to deregulation that makes no sense now," said Phillip L. Doolittle, vice president for finance and administration at the University of Redlands. The school has amassed hundreds of thousands of dollars in penalties by ignoring the agreement and keeping its electricity on to avoid canceling classes. Lawmakers prepared to work through the weekend to find a long-term solution to the crisis. Their attention was on a plan under which California would issue bonds to cover the multibillion-dollar debts of its two biggest electric utilities, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas and Electric Co. The utilities� customers would pay the money back through recently approved rate increases of between 7 percent and 15 percent, which would be kept in force for more than 10 years.

One of the state's most prominent consumer activists denounced the plan as a bailout. "If that's what they plan to do, they'll have to contend with a rate-payer revolt at the ballot box in 2002," said Harvey Rosenfield of the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights. "It's not a bailout," Gov. Gray Davis said. "It accomplishes two purposes: It provides the funding to revitalize the utilities, but it lets ratepayers know they will gain as the utilities gain." In exchange for issuing the revenue bonds, California would be granted long-term options allowing the state to buy low-priced stock in the utilities. If the price were to go up, the state could sell the stock and use the profits to help pay off the bonds. The utilities declined to comment on the proposal. California's two biggest utilities are approximately $12 billion in debt, a situation they blame on the state's 1996 deregulation of the energy industry. Under deregulation they were required to shed their power-generating operations and buy electricity from wholesalers but not allowed to raise rates when prices spiraled upward in a tight market. With electricity in short supply, Edison and PG&E have been forced to buy it at the last minute, sometimes paying as much as $600 a megawatt.

BUSH ALLOWS EASING OF POLLUTION RULES

Meanwhile, President George W. Bush is prepared to let California roll back its air pollution requirements on power plants, administration officials said Thursday. California pollution control officials said environmental restrictions have not interfered in power plants operating at maximum capacity. They said the state already has made some adjustment in air rules � when needed � to keep power flowing and doesn't need a waiver. White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said the administration was "reviewing a number of options" that might be helpful to California which has been reeling under high electricity prices, intermittent blackouts and the threat of utility bankruptcies. He declined to elaborate, saying they were still under review. But other senior officials said one idea was that the Environmental Protection Agency give California a waiver on air pollution standards if requested to ease emission controls from power plants. The administration "would be favorably disposed" to such a request "if that's what they think they need," said Larry Lindsey, the president chief economic adviser. Separately, two senior administration officials said that Bush is expected to raise California's power problems with Mexican President Vicente Fox when the two leaders meet Feb. 16 in an attempt to spur construction of power plants in Baja California. Possible expansion of electricity shipments from Mexico to California also might be discussed, but energy experts said Mexico faces its own growing power demands and likely will not want to expand shipments north. Senior Bush advisers have emphasized all week that there is no "federal panacea" to the California energy crunch and that a solution has to be crafted by state officials. Bush has rejected requests, including from some of California's Republican congressmen, for price controls on wholesale electricity.

POWER SURGE ON SUPER SUNDAY?

State power managers have called on Californians to do everything they can to conserve � even suggesting people planning to watch the Super Bowl do so in groups. TV use is likely to surge during the Baltimore Ravens-New York Giants football game Sunday. Group viewing could ease the burden. Last year's game between the St. Louis Rams and Tennessee Titans was watched by an estimated 8 million viewers in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Sacramento. "A lot of people around one set is a lot better than having a lot of sets on," said Patrick Dorinson, an ISO spokesman.

Black Blade: Can you just imagine it? If the power grid goes down during the Super Bowl, then there will definitely be some changes. Remember the "Heidi Game?" ;-)

They just aren't getting any breaks are they? This will eventually show up in consumer inflation and then the CPI and PPI manipulation will be exposed.

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 09:06:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46534)
London AM Fix -vs- PM Fix ... What Happens In Between.?.
Attn: Pandagold (01/26/01; 08:15:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46527)
Pandagold:
Getting serious for a minute: The reason I posted that url to
the London Gold Price Fix explanation, was to pre-educate
some who may be unfamiliar with it. Then I want to ask some
questions, of someone like you, over there, that can give us
the right answers. Because I may not understand it myself.

Question: If they "Fix" the POG (for the LBMA ?) in the AM;
that locks-in the POG for any subsequent trades during the
morning, thru midday, until once again, they "Fix" it for PM,
isn't it then possible for a large gold seller to flood his gold
into the LBMA prior to the AM fix, thus depressing the price
for the next several hours, whilst they buy that gold back, and
buy a few more bars at the same depressed price.?. Then,
by the PM Fix, the POG is reset to a higher value for later
afternoon locked-in POG trading. Which reflects by then, the
distortion (manipulation) by the scurillous MidDay sellers.?.

ie: London seems to me, to be a tailor made opportunity, and
place for the villians to work the GOOP exchange. And the
COMEX is small (Irish) potatos compared to the LBMA. Yet
it too is manipulated, by different accomplices, in a much
more dynamic second by second pricing scheme. Perhaps
the PFD manipulators use the COMEX. And the PFO rats
use the LBMA. Bigger bars for bigger Giants.

auspec (01/26/01; 08:59:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46533)
ThaiGold
THANK YOU! I have been patiently awaiting your tutelage. My pony is still resting as instructed, but cannot help but comment how much larger the LBMA is compared to Comex. It again seems that all roads lead to ...............London.

Black Blade (01/26/01; 08:45:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46532)
Power shortfall threatens New York City economy--study
Thursday January 25, 12:58 PM

EST NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - New York City faces a critical deficiency of 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity over the next five years that threatens to hurt the city's economy, according to a recent study. One megawatt of electricity provides enough power to light about 1,000 average homes.

Unless immediate action is taken to provide additional supply, New Yorkers could suffer electricity price spikes, brownouts and blackouts that are now plaguing California, according to a report from the New York Building Congress, written with the assistance of business advocacy groups. Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED), which helped write the report, has forecast there would be enough energy supplies to keep the lights on for its three million New York City electric customers this summer if the weather is normal. Con Ed officials, however, were not able to say for sure what would happen if the unexpected -- above-normal temperatures or a breakdown of transmission or generating facilities -- occurs this summer. "I can't say definitively what would happen. It would certainly be a stress on the system. Right now, we think we'll be okay. But, we'll have to gauge each day as it comes," Con Ed spokesman Mike Clendenin told Reuters.

CALIFORNIA CRISIS RAISES CONCERNS IN NEW YORK

The high prices and power outages in California have focused public attention on the need for new power plants and power lines and conservation programs in New York City. In California, price spikes and blackouts are becoming routine as officials deal with electricity supply shortages caused by that state's booming economy and rapid population growth in recent years which was not matched by an increase in generating capacity. New York City also experienced an economic boom and population growth over the past 10 years. That growth increased the demand for electricity by about 1,400 MW over the last decade, again without any significant increase in generating capacity.

The increased demand and flat supplies, when combined with the newly deregulated, competitive wholesale market, has, according to the study, resulted in higher electricity prices, especially during times of high demand like the summer air conditioning season when New York City electric bills rose more than 40 percent. The Congress said it prepared the report to alert the political leaders and New York residents of the urgency of the state's electric supplies.

2001 AND 2002 ARE CRITICAL YEARS

The Congress said the years 2001 and 2002 were the most critical for New York City. The new supply of electricity needed to ensure market stability and reliability, and to meet the projected increase in demand, was estimated in the study to be 1,000 MW in 2001, growing to almost 1,500 MW by 2002. The only immediate potential for additional supply before the summer of 2001 as from the New York Power Authority's (NYPA) plan to install 11 small gas turbines in and around the city. If built, these units would produce about 440 MW of new generation in the city. "The NYPA units will provide a cushion for the city this summer, but they are only a short-term solution," Con Ed's Clendenin said. "We need to build additional generating facilities and we need to get started building them now." The Congress urged the state and city leaders to accelerate the process of permanent, new electric generating capacity in the City, and to encourage conservation and increased use of alternative energy technologies. At this time, however, there are no new generating facilities under construction. To date, 5,500 MW of capacity were proposed by a number of energy generators for the New York City area, but only one of those projects has reached the approved application stage. The formal siting process in New York State, called Article 10, takes about 12 months once a project reaches the application stage, before construction can begin.

The Congress also stressed the need for new technologies and energy conservation solutions, which could save an estimated 500 MW of projected generation need. In criticizing a trend that must be reversed, the Congress said the federal and state governments must increase expenditures for conservation and new technology programs that have been reduced in recent years. Public officials and business leaders must act strongly to convey the message now to all new Yorkers that, without new electricity generation, the city could face higher electricity prices and threatened brownouts and blackouts in the very near future, Congress concluded.

Black Blade: Who needs energy when you have a "New Economy?" HA! Abbey Jo's words ring more hollow with every passing day. And NY is the financial center for the major US stock exchanges � and NASDAQ is entirely a computer trading system. Hmmm� Energy is the key to all this!

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 08:44:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46531)
Gold, the Turkey. ... Silver, the Wild Turkey.
Attn: Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/26/01; 08:23:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46528)
Hi S,L,a,T.T.
I was speaking of Gold. The Turkey that Cannot fly. Of course
I can see that any turkey can fly above 15-foot midwest corn
stalks. But out here, in the forest, the Evergreens are so thick and their lower branches very close to the ground. Hence our
Wild Turkeys keep their flight path low to clear them. I'm not
sure what Silver is trying to fly under.

Pandagold:
City of London only a mile square.?. EagleRanch is bigger.!.

turkey hunter (01/26/01; 08:27:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46530)
Turkeys can fly @ ThaiGold
Hi ThaiGold. You know them wild turkeys are an interesting bird. They can fly. This last spring I had a turkey coming right in to me but I got over excited and shot to soon. You should have seen him. He took off like a helicopter and did a roll over just like the space shuttle and flew about a half mile before he landed. And he was about 30 yards high. He glided almost half the way. And them wild turkeys can really run. Thee ole domerman isn't going to catch him either. A couple of years ago I had a turkey coming in to me but I twiched and he saw me. His eyes got as big as dish plates and you should have seen him turn and run. He was a couple hundreds yards before he slowed down and I could still see his eyes. He knew danger when he saw it.
Now thats a little different than your average stock invester. Yes the ole stock invester can't see danger he just keeps coming in for the slaughter. I just betch ya if a wild turkey could by gold he'd buy all he could get at these prices and think everyone else was dumb for not getting on the band wagon.

CoBra(too) (01/26/01; 08:23:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46529)
As a PS: @ BB & CM
BMW has built several cars on fuel cell tech. for a 2 yr.
test span with pre-determined test groups. cb2

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/26/01; 08:23:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46528)
ThaiGold, you have some real sad turkeys!
Wild turkeys in the midwest are excellent flyers! Having startled more than a few solitary toms in my time, 3 feet altitude is one sad turkey! In the woods they will fly nearly straight up, 20 - 30 feet, before heading off in their chosen direction, losing about 10 feet altitude in order to pick up speed, then flying off amazingly fast and agile for a bird of such great size and TASTE! No question about it. Wild turkey for lunch! (The bird not the libation!)

Pandagold (01/26/01; 08:15:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46527)
Thai Yes, I know of the ritual well

Have been to those offices. Also I visited a big gold diplay at the BofE put on by Rothschild a couple of years back. Even came back with a piece of ore. (they stopeed me taking a couple of bars)

Have also panned for gold in Georgia.

I also metal detect. Have found Roman coins but not gold ones yet.

The acutual 'City' of London is only a mile square. One gets a wonderful feeling of being at the heart of financial history - especially Gold when walking those streets. I have to go their as my bank is in Threadneedle Street - no not the BofE but the Bank of Scotland.

Thanks for the thought. Keep smiling. Our day will come - sooner than we think.

CoBra(too) (01/26/01; 08:15:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46526)
Re: BB & CM
BB - Thank you again for excellent grasp and timely and early warnings on the energy situation and as you've said to CM - yes there are alternatives, I would like to add it may take more than a generation (no, not power generation...) to change todays infrastructure in all walks of (energy) life. Judging from the 70's oil shocks, nothing of consequence will be done, only this time we're closer to
the zenith of the Hubbert curve ...
oh well, we can always surf - instead - or plant some veggies and trees to fill our tummy and not to freeze, when even the turkeys won't fly then it's time get some more gold to please - our souls - and take care of our needs, when all else runs a'foul. cb2

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/26/01; 08:13:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46525)
Black Blade, Cavan Man: Fuel Cell Technology
I have always had my doubts about FCT. I will not ride in any vehicle utilizing hydrogen under pressure. Hindenberg and Challenger come to mind. I put FCT in the same ballpark with the ceramic aircraft engine for which I've been waiting over 20 years.

The most promising, bizarre, and hilarious concept that I have heard of recently is out of France. I laughed at the concept until I saw the thing in operation! It in no way degrades the environment through its operation. It runs off of the temperature differential created by the onboard compressed air mixing with the outside air for "combustion". It is inherently light weight and if it ever experiences a fuel shortage, we'll all be dead anyway! The range is limited as it is in its infancy, as well as its lack of acceleration. It is relatively loud, sounds like a large lawn mower! They have much work to do to improve it, but safety, utility, tree hugger and $$$$ COST concerns are potentially all within its ability. The prototypes are now being evaluated as taxis in Paris.

The name of this technology escapes me at the moment, as well as the name of the inventor. I hope one of the many erudite posters on this forum will post both. Thanks!

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 08:11:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46524)
Bumble Bees can't fly either
Attn: Black Blade (01/26/01; 08:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 46523)
Aeronautical engineers, have "proved" that it's physically not
possible for a clunky Bumble Bee to fly. Yet those same
turkeys designed (and flew) the Boeing 747 Jumbo jet.

Wild Turkeys (not your Thanksgiving kind) can "sorta" fly. ie:
they flap their wings and skitter away about 3 feet above the
ground, for maybe a distance of 10 yards before having a
Greenspan Landing. Then they do it again. Over and over. Just
like Greenspan. But that's where my Doberman has advantage
because he's over three feet tall. He just runs alongside them,
and looks down upon them in flight. Then the jaws. No contest.!.

Black Blade (01/26/01; 08:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 46523)
RE: ThaiGold
ThaiGold

Your post reminds me of an old television episode from a 1970's sitcom called WKRP Cincinnati where as part of a publicity campaign during Thanksgiving, the DJ Johnny Fever, was tossing turkeys out of a helicopter into a shopping mall parking lot. Les Nessman (the newsman), who was horrified, reported the event and was describing how turkeys were cratering into windshields of parked cars and splattering on pavement. Later, Johnny Fever said, "I swear, I thought turkeys could fly!"

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 07:47:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 46522)
Gold at US$419
http://www.kitco.com/london.fix.article.html
Pandagold:
You'll love the flag at this link.

An interesting article, (explanation) of the London AM & PM
Price Fixings. For Newbies. Oldies too. The POG was $419
when this article was written.

Black Blade (01/26/01; 07:43:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 46521)
RE: Cavan Man
First, I thank you.

I think that Fuel Cell technology has possibilities. As of yet, there are many competing companies and no set standards. Ballard Power, Fuel Cell, and Plug Power seem to be the leaders so far among the independents, yet Exxon-Mobil, Texaco, and GM are also working on Fuel Cell technology. It does look like a promising field though, however, the energy crisis will arrive full force long before a mass-produced and standardized product is available for the masses at a reasonable price. I also wonder with the high cost of PGMs, whether Fuel Cells will be available for a reasonable cost as platinum is a very important element and would surely rise exponentially if Fuel Cell technology becomes desiable. Another question is what type of fuel will be used. Most proposed fuels are "hydrocarbons" and that brings us back to square one. If some method of electrolysis using water can be made viable, then maybe it will be more promising. I also didn't go into micro-turbines as they also look good and they can run on multiple fuel types, but the cost is a bit prohibitive for most people.

Desalination is an interesting subject as well. I know that in Saudi and Marin County, Kalifornia there are operating plants. The US Navy had a small personnel version made as a part of a survival package.

Cheers, - Black Blade

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 07:33:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 46520)
Email Bounce
Attn: Cavan Man
Hi Guy
I tried to send you an Email, but the (old) address I have for
you is bouncing. RSVP: ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com ..Thanx..

ThaiGold (01/26/01; 07:29:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46519)
Turkeys Cannot Fly.?.
Attn: Christopher (01/26/01; 07:01:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46515)
I had always heard /been told/ that Turkeys cannot fly.
Whereas, I'm sure my Doberman can fly. Else how does he
get over a six-foot fence.?.
I think, the main point to consider is, simply: Which of the two
can run fastest, and which has the biggest jaws.

Cavan Man (01/26/01; 07:23:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46518)
Black Blade
Thank you for a most excellent summation. You do not mention fuel cell technology. Are you entirely skeptical of FCT? Also, your comments about the 80's are right on. I worked in an industry closely allied to the oilpatch at that time. I can still remember all the bankruptcies and rusting equipment strewn all over East Texas, West Texas and Lousiana.

If I might offer a couple of minor contributing factors based upon my own observations:

1.) New Home Construction especially in the 3000 sqft range and above

2.) The density of continued development in certain parts of the country--e.g., Florida is a good example that comes to mind. Did you know that a desalinization plant is underway or at least planned for the Tampa-St. Pete area?

Thanks again...CM

Pandagold (01/26/01; 07:20:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46517)
Euro ,Gold, leprachauns, and dogs

May I remind you all, once again, that the euro only becomes a 'tangible' currency in January next year. I have a very strong feeling it will be celebrated by some gold coinage from France and Germany - maybe Ireland (land of the little Leprachauns) will also get in on the act.

All when other things are coming together for gold. I really don't think we need a world disaster ( though we might get one) for gold to move.

Every dog has its day - so they say. And what a dog it's been. Wuf..wuf.......wuf

Pandagold (01/26/01; 07:02:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46516)
Thai Gold T. Calandra;s article

I have reprinted a key section which I think says a lot.

It is the UK elections almost certainly now in March, otr thereabouts. The existing government is taking some stick for one reason and another. It could well be that their fear for re-election will surpass their obedience to the Cabal/ In other words they could announce no more auctions.

The announcement would be sudden. Think of the impact. Come to think of it, if the manipulators are looking for a way off the hook - what better. The UK will then carry the a lot of the blame for depressing the gold price.

After all, it is getting very embarrassing with palladium and platinum soaring. Watch for them coming down a bit if gold and silver moves. The two lots should move to meet. Silver is the clue, I believe it will move , a little, at first.

"............... What's the trigger for a higher gold price? One fund manager in London, who asked to remain unnamed, noted that the Bank of England is halfway through its programmed sale of gold reserves and could decide to end the auctions if regulators anticipate a higher gold price.
"A sharp, sustained rise in the gold price combined with a withdrawal of gold liquidity from the market by the central banks could create problems for the hedged producers," said Foster at Van Eck........"

Christopher (01/26/01; 07:01:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46515)
Ah Thaigold msg #46496
Sir Thaigold not know Sir Turkey very well. He think Turkey dumb like other woodland creature. He not know old saying about turkey and a deer...A deer think every man is a stump, and a turkey think every stump is a man.
Sir Thaidoberman can fly?

Regards

Christopher

ThaiGold (1/26/2001; 6:14:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 46514)
Gold: 'A question of when, not if'
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?nu=1&source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B133B2387%2D30AC%2D4B77%2D84CE%2DFF5A642D2D76%7D
Interesting report at CBS MarketWatch:
|
Thom Calandra's StockWatch
Gold: 'A question of when, not if'

By Thom Calandra, FT MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 5:15 AM ET Jan 26, 2001

LONDON (FTMW) -- Gold fund managers are lining up behind gold, with some suggesting the besieged metal might make a comeback.

The Bank of England's 25-ton gold auction this week, one of a series of gold sales by central banks worldwide, was 4.8 times oversubscribed, pointing to a widening gap between physical supplies and consumer demand.
"That tells you people are buying. There is a big demand for gold in the spot market," said John Hathaway, who manages the $20 million Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX: news, msgs) from New York City. Hathaway said rising demand for gold could lead to a rare backwardation of gold prices. That's when the price of an ounce of gold for sale today is worth more than a contract for future delivery of the metal.
"To me it is a question of when gold moves higher, not if," says Joe Foster, manager of the $100 million Van Eck International Investor's Gold Fund.
A recent Salomon Smith Barney report, citing a gold industry trade group, said the deficit between physical supplies and growing consumer demand for the cheap bullion could be as high as 25 percent. Gold sells for about $265 an ounce, close to its lowest point in 16 months and not far from a 20-year low.
Critics point to forward-hedging gold companies as the culprits behind a low gold price. The world's No. 1 producer, Anglogold of South Africa (AU: news, msgs) , and Canada's Placer Dome Gold (PDG: news, msgs) and Barrick Gold (ABX: news, msgs) each sell their future production to dealers, getting more for their gold than they could in the spot market.
The so-called hedging tends to depress gold prices, in part from the use of derivatives. The hedging also encourages central banks to lend their gold at increasingly lower interest rates, once again putting a lid on speculators' willingness to bid the price of gold higher.
"Excessive hedging is damaging to the gold price because it supports central bank lending, contributing to the negative attitude that most investors have toward gold," says Foster at Van Eck.
Foster says gold companies that continue to hedge their production are gaining higher prices but playing a risky game. If gold prices rise significantly and rapidly, a mining company with an aggressive hedging book could be forced to sell its gold at a price that is far below the current market price.
"I would be more lenient in my views toward hedging at significantly higher prices, but with gold hovering near its 20-year lows, this isn't rocket science," he says from New York City. "It makes absolutely no sense."
'Not a clue'
Placer Dome Gold of Vancouver, which hedges gold production, told investors this week that the low gold price has led it to reduce the price it sets for gold reserves on the balance sheet to $300 an ounce from $325. The gold mining company, which produces 3 million ounces a year, cited central bank sales and, curiously, weak demand. Placer Dome made no mention of the oversubscribed Bank of England gold sale.
"With all due respect to Placer management, they don't have a clue," said Hathaway at Tocqueville. "They don't have any special insights that are not available to the rest of us. This has been a five-year death march for gold, and Placer Dome is trying to preserve capital."
Hathaway says he likens the "death march" to natural gas prices, which languished for years as producers cut their activity and decreased their investments in pipelines, exploration equipment and other capital expenditures. In the past year, natural gas prices in the United States have just about quadrupled.

"This year we have crossed a threshold; the psychology has changed dramatically," Hathaway reasons. "The capital investment flows into the material sectors have been really choked off the past five or six years. The previous generation of (natural-resource) managers over-invested and got lousy returns, and the next generation said, 'I am not going to overproduce,' and it is exacerbated by the strong dollar."
Most gold believers point to the financial landscape when making the case for the metal, which tends to rise in times of accelerated inflation or fiscal crisis. Yet gold prices have benefited little from the technology sell-off, a horrendous American trade deficit and signs the U.S. Federal Reserve will be unable to prevent a recession.

"Looking at the macro-economic environment, many indicators are trending to levels of past recessions," said Foster at Van Eck. "Manufacturing activity, debt levels, current account balances, the technology bust, energy prices -- the stage is set. The only thing that has not yet changed is investors' attitude. The Fed will have difficulty combating the excesses that have built over the past 10 years, and when this becomes obvious, gold will move into the spotlight."
Pull the trigger
Adds Hathaway, "We have been exporting capital and importing goods and services. If those flows reverse because foreign goods become too expensive, and the dollar goes way down, then this whole idea of outsourcing to Mexico and Asia for assembly and re-export becomes a bad idea, just like the California utilities getting rid of their power generators."
What's the trigger for a higher gold price? One fund manager in London, who asked to remain unnamed, noted that the Bank of England is halfway through its programmed sale of gold reserves and could decide to end the auctions if regulators anticipate a higher gold price.
"A sharp, sustained rise in the gold price combined with a withdrawal of gold liquidity from the market by the central banks could create problems for the hedged producers," said Foster at Van Eck.
As for investment choices, Foster said he owns shares of Goldfields (GOLD: news, msgs) , the second-largest South African producer after Anglogold. "I believe Goldfields is the most underrated gold company on the planet. Their operations are undergoing vast improvements and they have an impeccable balance sheet," he said.
Hathaway at Tocqueville also owns shares of Goldfields and recommends Homestake Mining (HM: news, msgs) , a California company and fourth-largest North American gold miner, and Harmony Gold Mining (HGMCY: news, msgs) , another South African company. All are considered unhedged producers of gold.
Editor's note: Thom Calandra owns shares of Goldfields. Here are his recent articles on gold and gold-mining stocks:
Gold's fading allure
Former gold trader sees rally ahead
Gold talk brings out the pundits

Thom Calandra is editor-in-chief of FTMarketWatch.com and CBS MarketWatch.com.

Black Blade (1/26/2001; 5:59:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46513)
HYDROCARBON MAN REVISITED - ENERGY CRISIS - "THE PERFECT STORM"

CALIFORNIA ENERGY CRISIS

The energy crisis continues to spread across the US with ever increasing severity. It was not long ago that the Wall Street pundits such as Abbey Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs said that energy was not a concern as it was not an important part of the economy anymore. Furthermore, there is the "New Economy" and that any concerns about a failing energy grid are "overblown." To paraphrase the Church Lady - "Well isn't that special." Try to pass that explanation onto the citizenry of California who have recently suffered the indignity of third world energy woes as rolling blackouts surged throughout the northern portion of the state. This energy crisis is far from over.

Recently PG&E found itself unable to provide power to its customers in Silicon Valley, the epicenter of the High Tech world. Power prices have increased 10 fold with utilities scrambling to find power at any cost while they deplete their cash reserves. Both PG&E and Edison are in technical default as they found themselves unable to service their debt. Now many Silicon Valley firms have installed their own power stations in order to ensure that they may stay in business. One High Tech manufacturer recently lost $1 million per hour in June when the power went out for 3 hours. Most of these companies had lower rates because they were on a voluntary list of power users who agreed to accept loss of power in times of a stage 3 power alert. The yearly limit on voluntary power depravation had been used up in the first 3 weeks of January!

How did California, the world's sixth largest economy, come to be on par with most third world countries? Quite simply, it was the typical California Grasshopper mentality that no one has to be responsible for anything. California legislators went haphazardly into partial deregulation where prices would be capped for consumers, wholesale energy prices were fully exposed to the free market, and worse yet - no long term contracts were allowed to lock in low energy prices. That's not all. There is a long standing tradition of beggar thy neighbor and a "not in my backyard" syndrome that pervades California. Environmental restrictions in California prevented the construction of new power plants that would be required to replace deteriorating older plants. In fact, no new power plants were constructed in over 20 years!

Unfortunately several events coincided that created a "Perfect Storm" in the energy crisis. Not only was this crisis inevitable because of lack of planning, but other states were also growing and demand for power was also increasing elsewhere. In California, most communities did not want "unsightly" polluting power plants built anywhere near them. Only clean burning natural gas power plants were acceptable, and better that they be built out of state. The result was that there are few "dual-fuel" power generating facilities, and that natural gas production could not keep up with ever increasing demand. In the Pacific northwest, hydroelectric power generating facilities were strained as drought conditions lowered water levels and therefore power output was lower. Washington and Oregon had to take care of their own first and what was left over could be sold to Californian utilities. The politically correct Grasshopper crowd of California assumed that they could forever be consumers while other states could be the providers. Sometimes shock-treatment is the only cure.

AN AMERICAN NIGHTMARE

California isn't the only crisis center, though so far it is the most visible. The cool summer this past year in the northeast prevented power shortages similar to that in California. In fact, the White House set aside 2 million barrels for heating oil for the northeast. Albeit, that oil was a political bone thrown by Bill Clinton in an effort to help Al Gore in his bid for the presidency. That oil went to Europe and never surfaced in the northeast. The midwest is perilously close to an energy crisis as well. The reason? Under utility regulation there was little or no incentive to build up energy capacity since profits were constant and rates were capped. Not to mention that regulators had forced utilities to write off construction costs that resulted in dividend cuts.

The situation isn't much better on the east coast either. Rate hikes are up about 43% in New York City with warnings that rates could increase by another 30%. The local utility Con Edison said that future energy demands might not be met unless additional power generating facilities are built within the next 2 years. So perhaps you now understand why I say that this is still a "developing" energy crisis. Recently there have been protests in Chicago, San Antonio, and several other US cities over the high cost of energy. Just imagine the societal breakdown when the grid goes down for extended periods, especially at night in major urban areas. Just look at what happens when a professional sports team wins a nation championship and the loons run amuck rioting, burning, raping, killing, etc. The nightmare of Y2K could be upon us but not because of embedded computer chips, but rather the complacency of man, misplaced environmental concerns and a simple lack of planning.

POWER GENERATION

POLITICALLY INCORRECT POWER

Over the years, many older power plants have shutdown as they had deteriorated from use. Many had shutdown as the clamor over nuclear power increased due to events such as 3 mile Island, Chernobyl, and hysteria aggravated by movies such as "China Syndrome." As the energy crisis intensifies, oppose to nuclear power will diminish. Some power plants such as hydroelectric power dams cut back as water was released to accommodate fish runs on several US rivers. New coal burning plants have not been built while technology for cleaner burning coal technology is being researched. The EPA Clean Air Act had an effect as well. Carbon Credits (also known as pollution credits) were awarded that limited the amount of power generated. Once a power plant reached it's allotted pollution limit, it closed until the next year, or purchased credits from other facilities. Oil burning power plants suffer from the same problem. Even though world oil consumption is roughly 77 million barrels per day, producers and refiners are at near capacity. While production increased about 10%, the demand has increased over 35%. As a result, about 95% of all new power generating facilities will be natural gas fired.

LOW SULFUR COAL

The largest source of low sulfur coal outside of the Lippo Bank owned coal deposits in Indonesia are in the newly designated Escalante-Staircase National Monument in the state of Utah. Some speculate that there was a Quid Pro Quo arrangement with campaign contributions for Bill Clinton and Al Gore and the NP designation. The fact that Clinton-Gore came in third place behind Ross Perot in both the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections in Utah did not help. Low sulfur coal is predominantly found in the western states, whereas the coal in the eastern states is higher in sulfur content. The concern over acid rain has created a politically charged negative sentiment against high sulfur coal. The race is on to develop cost effective clean burning coal technology.

NATURAL GAS

Today less than 20% of all power is generated by natural gas. That will increase to over 50% by 2010. Power demand had increased at an annual 2% clip for most the last decade, yet that rate has roughly increased to the current 4%. The reason? Simple - the "New Economy." In other words - the "Perfect Storm" caused by runaway demand, limited and even declining power generating capacity, and you have the perfect recipe for blackouts, rate hikes, and a declining comfort level in everyone's life-style. In other words, a potential disaster of epic proportions and societal deterioration. At the current rate of consumption, the US will consume its natural gas supply in about 66 years. As demand increases, that rate of consumption will increase significantly. Also, once the producing zone is depressurized to a certain point, other methods are required to force out the remaining natural gas. The use of other gases to displace the natural gas could cause contamination and eventually the energy cost to remove the gas is greater than the cost benefit. Due to increasing demand for clean energy, and the construction of many more natural gas fired power plants, the US natural gas reserves could be effectively depleted in as few as perhaps 20 years.

Natural gas will have to be only a part of the solution. General Electric (GE) is the major manufacturer of natural gas fired turbines. There is a problem here of course. The problem is that they are currently backlogged for 3 years. Even if there were enough turbines, there is the problem of natural gas production. Most target areas that are likely to have natural gas are in areas that are either populated (not good), or in isolated uninhabited areas that are usually off-limits due to government ownership. That is not only limited to natural gas of course.

There are not enough drill rigs, experienced rig crews, or professional staff to explore and produce enough natural gas anyway. Some drilling companies are scouring junkyards to find enough scraps to piece together drill rigs. Felons are hired upon release from prison to train on drill crews. How did this happen? Simple, when petroleum prices crashed in the 1980's, drill rig manufacturers went out of business or into other businesses. Old drill rigs were expensive to maintain and several if not most were sold as scrap to junk yards. Experienced drill crews and professional staff were thrown out of work and eventually most moved on to other careers, never to return. As it is, today most operating drill rigs are in use, and no new rigs are to be found. In fact, day-rates for drill rigs have been increasing again as they have during the petroleum boom times during the Arab oil embargo of 1973, and energy crisis of 1979.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

What about wind and solar power? Both are climate dependent and costs are generally higher, though with increasing energy costs there is potential. Unfortunately while some environmentalist cheer on the development of these energy sources, others are opposed. The loss of "open-space", and loss of "aesthetic value" are listed as concerns. Animal rights activists tend to oppose them as "animal killers" , especially windmills as they have been known to slice and dice birds such as eagles, condors, etc. Hydrothermal power has potential though there are few source areas outside of places such as Yellowstone National Park, and building a power plant over "Old Faithful" would not likely go over well with the Forest Service.

THE NEW ECONOMY

There are enough demands on energy as it is. Power demand nearly took out the grid in the midwest last summer as air conditioning strained the available capacity. The "New Economy" has hit the power grid hard as well. As more people "plug-in" to the internet, more power is drawn upon by computers, server farms, and phone use. Demand is projected to increase at about 4% annually. If the energy crisis hits the grid, then online businesses such as Amazon.com and others will suffer. Energy use is actually rising exponentially due to the use of the internet and computers in just about anything imaginable. In fact electricity consumption has increased by 35% in the last decade. Of course higher energy use leads to higher energy costs that MUST and WILL be passed along the consumer. The result is inflation.

CONCLUSION

The energy crisis is already upon us. The situation is beyond repair and recession is the only result. The lack of preparation and artificially low energy costs fueled by cheap oil and natural gas have lead the US to an unprecedented Bull Market, but has also lulled the US into complacency. The US was "asleep at the wheel" and the economy is about to careen out of control. There is no way to prevent it at this point and recession is inevitable. Inflation and more likely stagflation will be the result. Why do I say this? Simple, every postwar recession has been preceded by rising energy costs. The only difference this time is that it is electricity and that hits the manufacturing sector as well as the consumer. Energy is one of the necessities of modern life. Those who prepared for Y2K are going to fare better than most, though life will likely become uncomfortable regardless. Job losses will accelerate, starting in the manufacturing and retail sectors. Wealth preservation will be the order of the day, while many bemoan losses on the stock market exchanges while they endlessly chase the current hot fad or run for the exit with the other panicked masses, those who have hard assets such as precious metals and real estate and who have a prepared a store of the necessities of life such as water and food should do much better and weather the "Perfect Storm."

- Black Blade

Boxman (1/26/2001; 5:43:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46512)
US metals industry jolted by electricity crisis
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?section=news&news_id=reu-n25100974&feed=reu&date=20010125&cat=INDUSTRY
They may not have a problem with mines in Nevada and the rest of the west, however, what does the future bode?

<<Some gold mines in California have had to synchronize their operations to the terms of power contracts.

For Homestake Mining Co. (HM), temporary power outages have forced temporary closures, some as long as 10 hours, of its 120,000-ounce-per-year McLaughlin mine in Napa County, raising the cost of production there by $10 an ounce.

Homestake CEO Jack Thompson said that under the mine's power agreement, it enjoyed a lower kilowatt hour charge but gave its provider the right interrupt its electricity.

"It's just been frustrating to try and keep running and you get a phone call that says 'You've got to shut down in five minutes'," he said. "But we struggled and kept everybody on the payroll -- we've got 135 people there. We try to do maintenance and things like this until we get the power back.">>

Pandagold (1/26/2001; 5:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46511)
Thai gold - Gold and Drugs
You are terrible Thai, but you have a persistant quality I like (and you're sharp). I said let them remain nameless for very good reasons.

But once you know who is protecting them, you have the answers to many things. (Don't you?)

ThaiGold (1/26/2001; 4:53:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46510)
Attn: Pandagold
Does it start with "i" .?.
BTW are you getting 404 errors.?.
Try an "a" before the "si".

Pandagold (1/26/2001; 4:39:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46509)
Not a propmotion - just interesting comment from a CEO
Once again THIS IS NOT A PROMOTION

I print post this part of an interview with the ceo of
Vista just to illustrate (see towards the end) how the share price of a comany can be so unrelated to its performance. I would find it diffficult myself to invest my hard earned cash in such a low price stock. But if he is telling the truth, and there is no reason to doubt him as the figures could so eaily be checked, it show the state the industry has got into with all the sh*t that it has had to take for more at least a decade.

McGregor is the CEO of VISTA
Mr. McGregor: "........When gold prices start to move up, the price of the major gold producers such as Newmont and Barrick move first. Then the intermediates start to move up, and then the junior gold stocks. The percentage change in stock price is usually significantly greater with the juniors because they are so undervalued, and they're also highly leveraged to the price of gold. So I think that investors who would be interested in speculating with a few percent of their portfolios should be interested in our company. When the price of gold goes up our share price is likely to increase quite dramatically because Vista Gold and the junior gold sector as a whole is currently so undervalued The gold industry, worldwide, is really very small so even a switch of a few percent of people's investment portfolios into gold or gold stocks would have a huge impact on the price. This could happen quite quickly as people look around for undervalued sectors of the market. To illustrate this point, in mid-1996 when gold was around $375 an ounce Vista's stock adjusted for subsequent issues was trading at around $1.08. Today, with gold around $270 an ounce Vista shares are trading at around $0.06 and our gold reserves are better than they were in 1996. Great leverage to gold price!"

Tickers included

Pandagold (1/26/2001; 4:22:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46508)
Harmony

I know we are not to promote in this facility, at least, I suppose without declaring a personal vested interest.

Well I am not telling anyone to rush out and buy their shares, but if you have them , HANG ON. This company is one of the most 'above board', play it clean and go ahead companies in the market - and not just in the mining sector.

They put their money where their mouth is, and believe in their product - OUR product.

Pandagold (1/26/2001; 4:15:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46507)
Thai gold - Gold and Drugs

Well, they are in on it, ( merely because the CIA have their finger in every sordid little pie) but not the BIG culprits - no, and it's not the Ruskies, or the Brits. (or the Chinese) don't leave much does it? But let them remain nameless within these pages, at least. They are now the only 'untouchable'.

Pandagold (1/26/2001; 4:08:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46506)
One man's opinion
But there are others

Posted: 2001/01/26 03:37 AM EST
Why gold failed to rally amid US dollar weakness

The gold price ended up $2.20 on January 22 as a report by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealed that a short position in the futures market had been created, possibly with the intent to buy physical gold during Tuesday's gold auction by the Bank of England.

The idea is that a speculator can sell futures contracts in gold and cover them by buying physical gold at the auction and delivering it against the futures contract obligation. The problem arose when it appeared that more gold was short than the Bank of England was going to auction, and so a short squeeze rally ensued.

If this is really the case, we should see the gold price remain strong for a few days and then drift back down again, all else being equal. You may ask yourself why on earth I am writing about this, since a short rally is really a non-event, unless of course you're short.

The reason is that the gold price failed to rally since the last week of November, while the dollar has declined by about 11% against the euro. This has surprised some, because in principal at least, the gold price should respond to weakness in the US dollar. The theory is that because gold is priced in US dollars, any weakness in the US dollar should cause an increase in the US dollar gold price as long as the international gold price remains relatively constant.

So why didn't the gold price increase in relation to the dollar's decline? Well, there are two possible reasons. First of all, it is possible that while the declining dollar put upward pressure on the gold price, there may have been physical selling of gold, which of course would tend to lower the gold price.

According the World Gold Council, "statistics released by the London Bullion Market Association show that a sharp upturn in gold market activity occurred during the last month of 2000. Net clearing figures for December jumped to the highest level for six months, increasing from a daily average 18.6 million ounces (578.5 tonnes) in November to 23.6 million ounces (734.0 tonnes)".

This indicates that there may well have been strong selling of physical gold. Also, the short increase in gold futures contracts as reported by the CFTC might also imply physical selling of gold, which could explain why the gold price did not increase while the dollar weakened.

But there is another explanation. It is true that the dollar weakened against the euro, but that may not necessarily mean that the dollar weakened against other currencies. It could also be that the euro strengthened against most currencies and that would imply that the US gold price should not have been expected to increase.

While the euro gained 12% against the dollar, it also gained 20% against the yen. During this time, the dollar gained 7% against the yen. The point is that although the gold price is inversely correlated to the dollar exchange rate, one also has to look at the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. Just picking the currency of the week is going to result in confusion and misleading conclusions.

The dollar has not yet declined in any meaningful way against the majority of foreign currencies, which is why the gold price has not had a significant rally. Since its inception, the euro has been a disaster and the recent strength in the euro against the dollar of late is a reflection of the euro, not the dollar. We have to keep our eyes on the dollar in order to make sense of the dollar denominated gold price.

My money is still on an eventual decline in the dollar of historical proportions that should result in a substantial increase in the dollar denominated gold price. I see no reason to change that or any evidence that a decline in the dollar can be avoided.

By: Paul van Eeden
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Gold

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Randy (@ The Tower) (1/26/2001; 2:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46505)
FOA at the Gold Trail
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.html
This tack you have taken is exceptional, my friend! When it has proven futile to get someone to poperly conceptualize the unseen nature of the foundation (soil, strata, bedrock) upon which he stands admiring his landscape with thoughts of building a house here or there, your latest effort shall prove to exceed previous (herculean) attempts at showing core samples and diagrams of geologic cross sections.

As for myself, I have often had a laugh at my own experience, saying to friends that judging from my inability to lead others along a simple line of my own thought, I would likely prove unable to lead a three-year-old by hand to the toilet. But now, in splendid contrast to *ALL* my past efforts from The Tower, you have embarked on offering a hand-held tour through all of "geologic time" (to extend the above-mentioned metaphor) to offer a direct view of the foundational bedrock and strata as it developed.

In this way you are replacing a person's grey concept of "history" with a more vivid and vital understanding of the same old events in meaningful terms of current life experience, as in "been there, done that!" You have placed real items of antiquity in their hands as they stood upon the old earth, and asked importantly of them, "What would YOU do in these shoes?"

Yes, from humble beginings, all roads do lead to gold...though my inartful instructions shall surely doom me (as a traveler) to a solitary walk getting there, bewildering all and three-year-olds despite my best efforts! ha ha! Though through your good "trail guidance", legions may have hope to more clearly steer the course. And I, a mere curiosity to the woodland creatures, I shall be the tall one leisurely bringing up the distant rear, having already packed heavy in anticipation for the inevitable destination.

Black Blade (1/26/2001; 2:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46504)
Harmony sticks to anti-hedging pledge in face of R1bn need
http://www.busrep.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20010124202506170P650751&set_id=60
Stewart Bailey
January 25 2001

Johannesburg - Harmony, the country's third largest gold producer, would not sacrifice its anti-hedging principles to secure funding for its R1 billion purchase of AngloGold's Elandsrand and Deelkraal mines, Bernard Swanepoel, the chief executive of Harmony, said yesterday. Swanepoel said the company's search for finance to bankroll the acquisition was proceeding well. Intensive negotiations between Absa and JP Morgan-Chase, the two lead banks on the deal, were not unusual in a bid of this size, and he denied the company was battling to raise the cash to fund the purchase. "We still have no finalised details with regards to the financing in terms of terms and interest rates. "Harmony has stated that it is opposed to forward selling and capping shareholder exposure to the gold price. Banks have to ensure that loans are secured, and what better way to ensure that than through sustainable profitability?" Swanepoel said Harmony would not renege on its anti-hedging philosophy, which set it apart from other gold stocks until 1999, when Gold Fields followed by winding up its own hedges. "We would rather not do deals which would force us not to give our shareholders the same exposure to the gold price E we won't sell our souls to get the financing for one deal." One analyst said Harmony was expected to buy put options on its gold production from the new mines to satisfy the risk requirements of its financiers. That would give Harmony full exposure to any upside in the gold price, but protect it from a price drop. Swanepoel said the final details on the finance package would be released next week.

Black Blade: Looks as if I'll keep my Harmony shares afterall. Honesty in a Gold Miner - Go Figure! I was skeptical of some reports that they would hedge, they would've lost their US base of shareholder support. Rather an unhedged profitable miner with a few mines, than a hedged short-seller behemoth with a lot of mines.

ThaiGold (1/26/2001; 2:14:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46503)
Vision Quest... Coments To:
Attn: Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape...auspec...Orville Goldenbacher...Pandagold
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (1/25/2001; 5:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46409)
[quote]
Because drug dealers and Arabs really, really like shiny things?
[unquote]

You have stated a key Truth. An even more important aspect is that said people
indeed *have*/*hoard* great quantities of shiny Gold things. And they obtain
even more, via the methods you will soon learn here, at a whopping discount.

*auspec (1/25/2001; 6:53:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46413)
[quote]
With increased profits from oil, opium, and other drugs we then get a decreased price of gold. Somehow there is a greater supply of gold on market because of this and we are obviously dealing in the undermarkets. Maybe gold has come to market in exchange for these items giving increased gold supply to suppress POG. So these gents can make so much money in the 3 O's that they will divest themselves of their Au. Is that a Bingo?
[unquote]

You too, have stated a key Truth. Especially the inverse relationship of POG vs
PFOil + PFOpium + PFOtherDrugs. Let me combine those three terms into a simpler
one we can remember easier: GOOP... Stands for "Gross (as in obscene) Oil and
Opium/OtherDrug Profits". So, in simpler terms, the POG moves reverse of GOOP.

You mention "undermarkets". Somewhat true. But their methods are actually done
in the normal (legal) LBMA and COMEX markets. Some of their cronies are shady
folks, very adept in performing/facilitating for either group, Oil or Drugs.

You are incorrect saying: "they will divest themselves of their Au." (gold).
Indeed, "money" (more of it--fiat) is not their objective. Just the opposite
is true: They already have too much fiat. Their objective is to exchange it all
for more cherished gold. And at the lowest obtainable price. Wouldn't you.?.

Orville Goldenbacher (1/25/2001; 8:46:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46420)
-and-
Orville Goldenbacher (1/25/2001; 9:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46422)
[snip]
"Take a look at what happened in 1977, a critical year for gold." The Bank of China shocked the gold pundits, and those clever forecasters who are to be found in great numbers in America, by suddenly and without warning, dumping 80 tons of gold on the market."
"That depressed the price of gold in a big hurry. All the experts could say was, "We never knew China had that much gold where could it have come from?" It came from the gold which is paid to China in the Hong Kong Gold Market for large purchases of opium.
[unsnip]
-and-
[snip]
"It is easy to understand why gold was demonetized and substituted with the paper "dollar" as the world's reserve currency. It is not as easy to blackmail a country holding gold reserves as it is one having its reserves in paper dollars."
[unsnip]

The article you posted was lengthy and shows how interwoven and convolouted the
whole nightmare is. Suffice to say, the (opium) trade generates alot of cash
profits, and yields alot of power in high/influential places. Just as does the
obscene profits of the oil exporters. Add them together both wanting to exchange
their illicit (drugs) and legitimate (oil) US$ Profits into their cherished gold
and it becomes easy to see the amounts are staggering, and could move markets
(downward.!) if applied in the right way, with the right timing, and with the
full cooperation of high placed facilitators and unregulating regulators.

Pandagold (1/25/2001; 16:43:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46464)
[quote]
There has been mention of a link between gold and drugs in one context or another. It would be interesting if you found out who provides the military training and back-up for the top drug barons' protection and general security - also providing intelligence.
I did but it was buried in small print.
(Clue:One of the world's most elite forces)
[unquote]

You of course, are refering to the CIA and US Forces under their surreptuous
control. This is such a shame, and flys in the face of those Veterans who have
or were ready-to give their lives for their country. But orders are orders, and
secrets are secrets, best kept from our unknowing soldiers. How ironic.

auspec (01/25/01; 22:12:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46490)
[snip]
Putting together my simple premises with the info from Orville G--- Gold is a common currency used in exchange for your 3 O's, and a nice "dark" currency it is. If I sell a lot of O {lets say oil} and make a lot of profit, in gold per cheap dollar terms, then some of that "currency" will find it's way to market. This depresses POG, again in dollar terms, and sets up a cycle where even greater amounts of gold can be had for same Oil. Drives POG down as long as the SUPPLY of Au is available for these transactions. Right?
[unsnip]

Not exactly. They don't "make their profit in gold". They make it in US$ (and
to a very minor degree, EUROs too). It is when they *convert/exchange* those
fiat profits for the real thing (gold), that their method depresses the POG.
It sounds backwards, doesn't it.?. You'd think them purchasing that much
gold on the market would RAISE the POG. It doesn't.!. Because of their clever
tactic of using their previous gold hoards to flood the market(s) temporarily,
then, with exquisite timing, buy it all back, plus the next-wanted quantity,
at (viola.!.) rock bottom ("manipulated") POG prices. Who are the suckers.?.

Next, you (ausepc) go on to reason:
[snip]
Continuing forward, regardless of the absolute correctness of the premises above: What factors will cause a change in profitability of your 3 O's? Oil is quite profitable right now and likely will be for a few more years until pendulum swings back. your other two O's are probably quite profitable right now for at least 2 obvious reasons: Boom times with lots of money sloshing around. The supply is controlled to a degree because of the illegalities of these substances. Cartels, turf wars and so on act on these substances like existing control of diamonds.
So, what busts up this formula for success? 1. Unprofitable oil {look back a couple years} 2. Unprofitable illegal drug trades {have no clue on how that changes except what mentioned above} 3. Back to gold supply problems {if the gold is not there it can't be used in this cycle of trade}. All of this depends on a large flow of "tarnished" gold. That and Oil look like the leading candidates for change in this cycle.
[unsnip]

You are exactly right. Look back, using long-term OIL and Gold charts. The good
times for POG have often coincided with bad (unprofitable) times for OPEC etc.
I differ in your reasoning about drug profit fluctuations. That factor remains
relatively constant (demand/junkyism) or if anything, increases during economic
downturns (it's been proven) because the depressed populace will squander it's
cash on supporting their addictions above nearly anything else. And loss of job
or economic recessions only increase their stress. Or allow them to obtain very
generous alternate (welfare/unemployment) income handouts. Indeed, many states
now lavish welfare upon them, calling their addiction an illness worthy of SSI
payments from the Social Security Trust funds. But that's not the issue here.

I like your reasoning in asking "what busts the cycle?". My answer to that is:
it isn't likely to be busted. (1) because oil is getting scarcer. (2) drug use
cannot be ineptly contained by dubious "DEA War on Drugs". (3) They supply the
initial gold needed to flood/stampede the POG markets downward. Their supply is
endless. And they get it back every time, plus alot more. At a very low price.

To change the cycle, we need to watch for: (1) disintegration of OPEC; or more
supply from non-opec sources to come online in the future; etc. (2) A real cut-
back in drug useage. (ain't gunna happen)(it's just getting worse). (3) CFTC
type regulations to prohibit short-selling of Gold my non-mining producers.
Or other governemnetal actions to thwart their (quasi-legal) manipulations.

=== You Knights have come a long way. Rest your Pony(s) and let them drink in
the creek here for awhile. Then continue your Vision Quest. Soon you will ask
yourselves why you didn't get off the beaten Trail much sooner. For the Truth
of the downtrodden POG has never been discovered correctly nor discussed until
this time. Nor has the answer ever been given of "Who's buying all that gold.?.
Until now.!.

So, you have already learned TWO Answers. In only two days. That's progress.!.

ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com

Black Blade (1/26/2001; 2:12:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46502)
Palladium Soars Again
Interesting, Gold is up +$0.20, Silver up 3 cents, Platinum is up $6.00, and Palladium is up $40.00 � passing through $1100.00/oz. Market futures are down, USD down, and other currencies are mixed. Maybe an interesting Friday is in store.

Peter Asher (1/26/2001; 2:06:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46501)
@Turbohawg, Hoople & 'flation heads.
Turbo: great to see you back on the board with your rational observations of what is before us.

Hoople Re - inflation index

Those numbers are real but a true index needs to be apportioned according to the percentage of the average consumers budget they represent. Also, car and home finance are a major part of most people's dollar payout and therefore must be included for a true picture. "Lack of volatility" is no more ground for leaving them out then there is ground for the Fed to leave out food and energy. The cost of making ends meet is what it is. A sudden spike on any particular month will always contribute to emptying that months wallet. Any good or service that creates a noticeable effect on most folks expenditures would be in a valid index.

Another thing about home energy costs is that they are selective. Our electric bill is 2/3 of what it was the winter we moved in. Kw/hrs are up and our space is 400, vaulted with glass, square foot larger, but we also extensively upgraded with wider walls and roof sections containing thicker insulation. (Another type of hard asset investment that pays off all the better with inflation) When my daughter converted to NG last October in Portland they were given a one year contract with a 25% cap.

Vehicle finance is definitely down and sagging sales are trimming the profit margins, as dealers bargain to move inventory. We just now traded in both vehicles on comparative but upgraded models. One had a unknown quantity of blown head gasket, the other needed $2500.00 of bodywork, both were 2/3 down on rubber and well past warranty. Now we have the comfort and aesthetic pleasure of the new and are again not subject to mechanical repair costs or time lost in dealing with same. And, we once again are free from threat of being stranded and get a couple of miles better per gallon. (Plus we drove away with full tanks) --- Net change on monthly premiums; minus $60.00

One loan @ 12% became a lease at 6.9% the other @ 9% became a lease $7.2%. There was also the fact that any husband and wife tag-team of self respecting Forum members can rake a car salesmen over the coals.

Black Blade (1/26/2001; 1:55:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46500)
Fuel Costs Hit Railroad Earnings
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010125/cv.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Rail giant CSX Corp. (NYSE:CSX - news) rounded out a difficult week of earnings reports for U.S. railroads on Thursday, saying that, like its rivals, higher fuel costs and falling demand pressured its fourth quarter. Industry leaders were cautiously optimistic about forecasting future earnings for the railroads as continued weakness in the economy coupled with high fuel costs and winter weather conditions plagued profit margins.
``We knew this was going to be a week of bad news and now it's over,'' said Michael Lloyd, railroad analyst at Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown. ``Those railroads that are cutting their costs and reducing their cost structure in line with lower economic growth will be well-positioned for much better earnings once we get past this first-quarter of uncertainty.'' He said most railroads will probably report earnings that are flat to down in the first quarter as fuel costs are still higher than a year ago and the economy remains weak. ``The only hope will be that coal bails some of them out,'' Lloyd said. Nick Kovich, a former portfolio manager with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and a major railroad investor, said he has much of his investment riding on a resurgence in coal. Coal is a main commodity that railroads transport and demand for it has dropped as the economy stalled last year. ``The prospects for coal have clearly brightened...given what's going on in the energy market with California and natural gas,'' said Kovich, who says he owns ``thousands'' of shares of Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE:UNP - news) stock. Kovich also thinks the worst is over in terms of soaring fuel prices.

WEEK OF EARNINGS REPORTS

A week ago, Union Pacific, the nation's largest railroad, reported its earnings fell 5.3 percent, in line with lowered forecasts, as it succumbed to surging fuel prices and dropping demand because of the softening economy.
Omaha, Neb.-based Union Pacific reported earnings of $229 million, or 90 cents per share, before a one-time charge resulting from its Dec. 27 decision to cut 4 percent of its workforce. That compared with net income of $242 million, or 95 cents per share, a year earlier, it said. Union Pacific ``confirmed what everybody knows, which is that it's a tough economy and fuel prices are going to remain high,'' said Jill Evans, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase.
Fort Worth, Texas-based Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE:BNI - news) on Tuesday said its fourth-quarter earnings fell 19 percent because of poor winter weather conditions slowing down rail service. It also experienced high fuel costs and dramatic drops in shipping due to a weakening economy. Burlington Northern still managed to edged out Wall Street expectations by a penny, reporting net income of $255 million, or 65 cents per share. That compared with net income of $315 million, or 69 cents per share, a year earlier, it said. On Wednesday, National Steel Corp. (NYSE:NS - news) called its fourth-quarter results ``disappointing'' and it said it was pessimistic about its near-term outlook as a weaker auto and construction market would curb demand for rail shipments. Also on Wednesday, Norfolk, Va.-based railroad Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC - news) said its fourth-quarter earnings rose, but its stock plunged as investors reacted to its announcement on Tuesday that it would cut 6 percent of its workforce, slash its dividend and get rid of 12,000 freight cars as part of a restructuring made necessary by the slowdown in the economy. Norfolk's earning results, while still in the black, ``reflect both the successes of improved operations and the challenges of significantly higher diesel fuel prices and a slowing economy,'' said David Goode, chief executive, in a statement.

IMPACT OF SURGING FUEL COSTS

Norfolk Southern paid 45 percent, or $43 million, more for fuel in the fourth quarter compared with a year-earlier. The railroad said it even consumed 3 million gallons less than in the fourth quarter than it did a year earlier.
``We are experiencing the highest diesel fuel costs in the past 10 years, even higher than during the Persian Gulf War,'' said Henry Wolf, chief executive, during an analyst meeting Wednesday. Norfolk Southern said remained ``hopeful'' diesel fuel prices would moderate. It wasn't the only rail company to shell out more cash for the same amount of fuel consumption quarter-to-quarter. Union Pacific's fuel costs rose 73 percent from a year-ago to $335 million on almost the same amount of fuel usage a year ago. The average price per gallon of fuel rose to $1.03 from 60 cents in the fourth quarter of 1999, it said. On Thursday, CSX reported a 29 percent rise in fourth-quarter operating profits as it cleared up traffic congestion on its lines and improved service. The railroad, however, missed Wall Street expectations as soaring fuel costs and falling demand pressured earnings. CSX Corp. (NYSE:CSX - news), based in Richmond, Va. and which runs the largest rail operation on the U.S. East Coast, paid $55 million more in the fourth quarter, compared with a year earlier, to cover the high fuel costs. The railroad said it paid $1.10 per gallon for diesel fuel in the fourth quarter compared with 74-cents a gallon a year-earlier for virtually the same amount of fuel consumed.

RESTRUCTURING THE ANSWER

While Norfolk Southern has already announced a restructuring move, Kovich calls it defensive because the railroad was already in a weakened position when it made the decision to restructure to maintain its financial viability. ``All these companies are aggressively attempting to raise prices to offset energy, labor and other costs increases,'' Kovich said. ``Several of these companies have announced restructurings or will announce restructurings.'' He said Canadian Pacific (Toronto:CP.TO - news), which saw its fourth-quarter profit nearly double from its huge earnings in its oil and gas unit, would possibly restructure its portfolio and do a share repurchase to boost up the stock price. Some of the smaller railroads, such as, Wisconsin Central and Kansas City Southern could become targets for larger railroads to acquire later this year, Kovich said.

Black Blade: Let's see here. The cost of transporting goods is higher. Pass along those costs to the consumer? The railroad hopes for higher coal prices. See where this is going? If coal prices rise, then another avenue of energy price hikes. I suppose that there won't be any inflation as under the "Hedonic" pricing method, the coal is higher quality because it will be transported in higher cost rail hoppers, therefore it is somehow better coal, and therefore no inflation. Yeah, I know � I don't get it either. The boys and girls at the BLS seem to have it all figured out though.

Black Blade (1/26/2001; 1:25:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46499)
Record Gas Prices Breathe Life Into Nuclear Power
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010125/ts/utilities_nuclear_dc_1.html

By Joseph Silha

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Record high U.S. natural gas prices and power blackouts in California this winter have some thinking the unthinkable: Tapping nuclear power to meet the country's rapidly growing electricity needs.
While no one is expecting a raft of new nuclear power plants any time soon -- none have been built here since 1978 -- the recent spike in gas prices has put nuclear power back in play. Nearly every power plant being built here is gas-fired, boosting competition for already tight fuel supplies. ``One of the main things holding back nuclear power has been cheap natural gas, but with gas prices this high, the nuclear option is back on the table. People are running the numbers to see if it makes sense,'' said John Redding at General Electric's GE Nuclear Energy division in San Jose, Calif. Twenty years ago the nuclear industry was plagued by cost overruns and safety concerns.

Today, under better and safer management practices, nuclear power plants produce electricity about 90 percent of the time at a cost of 1.83 cents per kilowatt hour (KWh), outperforming fossil fuels like coal, oil or natural gas.
``It does not make much sense to have all your energy eggs in one basket. We support a balanced approach to energy policy with a mix of fuels,'' said Vaughn Gilbert, public relations manager of British Nuclear Fuel's (BNFL) Westinghouse Electric Co. in Pittsburg, Pa. Industry experts expect most, if not all, of the nation's 103 nuclear plants to extend their operating licenses for 20 years. But some utilities are taking a further look at nuclear power, particularly if they are able to build at existing sites and use a standardized design that could streamline the lengthy licensing process and cut construction expenditures. ``The best place to go (to build) is where you already have sites. Those communities are generally supportive and the local work force is skilled,'' Westinghouse's Gilbert said.
Westinghouse, one of the nation's largest suppliers of nuclear power products and services, had a standardized design for a 600 megawatt nuclear plant approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 1999.

No Greenhouse Gas

Nuclear plants currently supply about 20 percent of the nation's power, with coal still the biggest provider at more than 50 percent. Gas comes in third at about 17 percent. With stricter environmental laws likely to keep upward pressure on fossil fuel operating costs, analysts said nuclear power is likely to become increasingly competitive.
While the advantages of nuclear have always been obvious to some -- cheap, stable fuel costs and no greenhouse gas emissions -- regulatory hurdles that drag out the permitting process and environmental concerns over disposing radioactive waste fuel still make nuclear a risky option. But that may be changing. ``The biggest hurdle is the uncertainty in the licensing process and we're working with the NRC to ensure that the licensing process is more efficient. We also hope to get a decision soon on a nuclear waste depository,'' said Marvin Fertel, senior vice president at the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), a Washington, D.C.-based policy organization for the nuclear power industry.

Making A Big Bet On Gas

There are some 300,000 megawatts of proposed new power generation planned for this decade, almost all fueled by gas because it is considered environmentally-friendly and plant construction costs are cheaper than other alternatives. A new combined cycle gas-fired plant can be built for $500-600 per kilowatt and produce electricity at a total cost of 3.5-4.5 cents per KWh, assuming gas prices of $3-4 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
But Henry Hub gas prices last year averaged more than $4 per mmBtu and projections for 2001 are in the $5-6 range. In contrast, a new standard design nuclear plant can produce power at about 4.5 cents per KWh assuming capital costs of about $1,500 per kilowatt. Some industry experts said power suppliers may be making a big bet on the clean-burning fuel that may not pay off, noting current growth rates in production and pipeline capacity may not keep up with rapidly rising gas demand.

Mix Of Fuels May Be The Answer

GE Nuclear's Redding said a mix of options, including nuclear may be the more practical strategy to meet growing electric demand. ``I think what recent experience demonstrates is that there is an argument for a portfolio of different fuels. I still leave my (nuclear) order book at home, but we've had meetings with several U.S. utilities that are exploring their options,'' Redding said. New Orleans-based Entergy Corp. , the nation's third largest power producer with more than 30,000 megawatts of generating capacity including eight nuclear units, agreed volatile gas prices have put nuclear power back in the mix. ``Certainly high gas prices improve the relative economic picture for a nuclear power plant. The volatility of gas prices gives validity to the need to have a mix of fuels with nuclear as part of it,'' said Diane Park, manager of communications for Entergy Nuclear Southwest, adding new nuclear construction was being looked at, but there were no definitive plans yet. But some analysts said deep-seated public concerns about safety may be a roadblock to new construction. ``I'm skeptical about the nuclear option. If gas prices stay high, utilities are going to look for something else, but it probably will be coal first. There's a lot of uncertainty about the public reaction to nuclear,'' said Joe Sannicandro, a director at Massachusetts-based consultants Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).

Black Blade: Wonders never cease. However, there is still an established presence of environmental activism lodged in various Washington DC government offices. After 8 years of radical environ-nut Bruce Babbit and world renowned Earth Scientist Al Gore (also known as the inventor of the internet), the prospects of building up nuclear power generating facilities in time to stave off a collapse of the energy grid is dubious at best. Not a bad idea though. The Dog and Pony show yesterday starring the "Amazing Cheeta (AG)" and the self-promoting drunk with power senators did bring up the issue of the energy crisis. Cheeta said to drill more for NG. Hmmm� I suppose he has a suggestion on where to find some idle drill rigs? Typical "Bean Counter" response when professional advice and action is required.

Yeah - Yeah, I know, like Donald Sutherland said in "Kelly's Heroes", I gotta stop with the "negative waves." ;-)

Black Blade (1/26/2001; 1:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46498)
MIDWEST NATURAL GAS PRICES MAY REFLECT CALIFORNIA WOES
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/printedition/article/0,2669,SAV-0101250378,FF.html

By Melita Marie Garza Tribune Staff Writer January 25, 2001

The California energy crisis may be playing a role in sky-high Midwest natural gas prices, experts told the Illinois Commerce Commission Wednesday. Although California's well-publicized power woes are focused on high electricity prices, the Golden State's problems are linked inextricably to natural gas. The reason: Almost half of California's electrical generating capacity comes from natural gas-fired plants. This winter's higher natural gas prices, in fact, are a prime component of the higher prices for electricity in California. Low rainfall has put a dent in California's supply of hydroelectric power, making the state more reliant on natural gas.

And, say experts, some gas intended for other markets, including Chicago, has been siphoned off to meet California's need. "If gas can flow to the highest-price market, it will, and it will affect markets in the rest of the country," said Cynthia Albert, vice president, regulatory affairs for CNS Energy Panhandle Pipe Line Cos. "The natural gas pipelines serving California are obviously full," Albert said. "They are moving as much gas as they possibly can." Albert was among experts who testified Wednesday as part of the ICC's investigation of the state's high natural gas prices. And she wasn't alone in her opinion that the California crisis may be siphoning off needed gas.

Donato Eassey, an energy stock analyst for Merrill Lynch in Houston, was unequivocal about the fallout from California's power crisis. "I think it has had an impact on gas prices nationally," Eassey said. "There's no doubt about it. You are going to pay one way or another." The Chicago market, say Albert and others, still is receiving adequate supplies of gas to meet the demands of consumers. They say this is primarily because of the opening last month of the Alliance pipeline, a new producer-built pipeline that is bringing gas into the Chicago market from Canada. Some 1.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas is being piped through Alliance each day, she said. Nonetheless, Albert said her firm was commissioning a study to determine how diversions of natural gas to California may be affecting the market. "Gas is in fact going west," Albert said. "We are not filling up our mainline pipeline, which is the first time we've seen that happen in a cold winter like this."

Albert added that she was talking about a relatively small amount of natural gas going towards California on her company's pipeline. The Panhandle Eastern pipeline on a peak day transports roughly 2.5 billion cubic feet. In contrast, the amount going to California is about 200 million cubic feet a day. "I think there is competition for the supply we haven't seen before," Albert said. But she noted that she had no idea how much natural gas other pipeline companies were shifting toward California. "I don't have data on what this means for the Chicago price," Albert said. "Chicago is still getting a good price" compared with other places, where prices are just as high or higher.

Black Blade: The energy crisis is spreading east like an oil slick on water. Cheeta (AG) today said that Kalifornia's energy woes would not likely affect the rest of the US. Hmmm� There's just no way that this crisis can be contained in Kalifornia alone. The state is the world's sixth largest economy and the effects are sweeping across the US. Already, price increases for energy have increased several fold across America. Anyone who thinks that the higher energy costs won't show up in higher costs for goods and services (inflation) is walking through life wearing "Rose Colored Glasses." That is why I find Cheeta's statement somewhat bizarre. He knows better (I think). He obviously knows that the jig is up. He had stressed that a tax cut was a bad idea, now he says that it's a good idea. He as the "Head Fed" and his buddies cut rates 50 bp, and are poised to follow-up with another cut of 50 bp. He is running scared and Wall Street should be too.

Black Blade (1/26/2001; 0:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46497)
SHIFTY RE: Stock Certificates - registration, etc.

I have held certificates in the past. I have at times deposited certificates into a DRIP where the shares are registered in my name and I also have accounts with firms such as BuyandHold.com where all shares are held in my name. If your broker holds the shares, then the brokerage holds them in "Street name" and they get to vote on the proxies as they are considered the "owner" of the shares. As you already know, you can request delivery of certificates though some brokers balk at that idea. The advantage of course is that I can vote on proxies, get free reinvestment of dividends, and the fees are extremely cheap. I just don't like to hold a lot of certificates if I can help it. I hold my certificates for Goldfields (GOLD) for example because they don't participate in some of these plans, whereas Harmony (HGMCY) and Durban (DROOY) do. At least if any of the Hedge-Fund producers make a move on Goldfields, I can vote against it as a registered owner of the shares. As far as the physical is concerned, I have a good place for that where I and a couple of very close trusted family members are the only ones with access in the event of an emergency.

ThaiGold (1/26/2001; 0:36:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46496)
Turkley Hunting: Better Way
Attn: turkey hunter (1/25/2001; 17:20:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46468)
Hello Turkey Hunter.!.
You wrote:
[snip]
To kill a wild turkey one has to have patience to sit and wait. I might sit in camouflage for two or three hours making a yelping sound like a female turkey knowing that there is a big gobbler strutting right over the hill. He gobbles and sounds like he is coming in range for a shotgun blast to the head, but five minutes later he gobbles and is afar off.. The adrenaline comes and goes and I wonder what I did wrong. But in reality I never did anything wrong for the gobbler turkey thinks in an unnatural way when it comes to hooking up with a female turkey. In most animals the male will seek the female but not the wild turkey gobbler. He expects the female hen to come to him. So I can sit there, and yelp all I want, but chances are he will not come in right away because he thinks I'm coming in to him.
[unsnip]

Sell shotgun. Buy Doberman. Make TurkeyFeather outfit. For Doberman. Look like
TurkeyHen. You in camo. Make noise. Like gobbler. Him come, then turn away.
Loose Doberman. (hen). Gobbler not know what hit him. You. Fetch Gobbler. From
jaws. Doberman not eat Turkey. Only people. Be careful.

turbohawg (1/26/2001; 0:23:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46495)
Hi Peter
Interesting article on Intel.

Yesterday, I went down to OfficeMax to pick up a new paper shredder. Burned mine up trying to get rid of a lot of documents (wonder if Clinton ever had that problem ?). Anyway, the little crosscut shredder I bought went for $20. Four years or so ago, when I bought the first nearly-identical shredder, I paid $50.

On the other hand, my electric bill was a third higher last month than it's ever been before.

But as you know, in my view, prices are only marginally relevant at best as an inflation/deflation indicator. Liquid/illiquid markets, capital flows, and Fed actions flash us the warning signs. Events of the last year only re-confirmed that deflation pressures are firmly in control. It's only a matter of time before deflation pressures turn to outright deflation.

As Jim Stack points out in his latest: "Twice in his 13-year tenure, Greenspan has pulled the plug on interest rates in a panic fashion. The first was immediately after the 1987 Crash, and the second was during the Asian Crisis of 1998."

Three weeks ago, only a little more than 2 years after the last panic cut, he did it again. You know what they say about trying to outrun a tornado. Greenspan is losing the race.

It's remained my view that Alan Greenspan is the quintessential Ayn Rand anti-hero. Staunch sound money advocate turned ultimate statist. Practicing monetary policy that serves to pacify the people and keep the ruling class comfortably in power (Gore-bachev notwithstanding). The thought that the market might finally break his back excites me to no end. The first block would then be in place in making the US a truly free country.

Still, from a historical and philosophical standpoint, there is at least one real positive to his fiscally outrageous behavior. Socialist Keynesians and de facto socialist, Fed-apologist Friedmanite monetarists have blamed the Fed of the �30s for simply not providing enough liquidity to overcome that deflation, contrary to the evidence and analysis provided by Austrians such as Murray Rothbard, who proved that that Fed desperately tried to inflate but couldn't. Greenspan can never be accused of being stingy with liquidity. Once the current economic imbalances are resolved, that argument will be over, one way or the other. Perhaps that's the idea. A method to his madness ?

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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