Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.
The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/26/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) beesting (8/26/2000; 23:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35591) Price-ing in the Real World of You and Me! Went to an open air "Farmers Market" today, just picked sweet corn was on many tables. One guy was selling 3 ears for $2.00, another guy was selling 4 ears for $ 1.00 a third guy was selling " buy one ear for a dollar get 4 ears free. The local supermarket had sweet corn 5 for a dollar. We happened to drive by a very small( est. 5 acres)farm on the way home and he was selling a dozen ears for $2.00 but threw in 2 extra ears with each purchase.Wholesale price of corn...unknown.Now, what's the point of this post.The supermarket was setting the ""SUGGESTED"" price of corn, but the owners of the corn determined the real price.The same as LBMA, COMEX, set a("suggested to the public") wholesale price for Gold, but can't an owner of anything set his/her own price? Some of the South African mines are selling directly to buyers, right now, and no-one knows the price they're getting for that Gold, but maybe shareholders will know soon,when quarterly reports are issued. Another example:A U.S.$20.00 Gold piece(one ounce) was passed down thru the family in great shape.A. Is it worth $20.00?B. Is it worth the present "spot" price of Gold?C. A coin book says it's worth $500.00.My young nephew showed great interest in the family coin, should I charge him any of the above prices or should I give him the coin?Bottom line, all price-ing is subjective to who is doing the buying and who is doing the selling.Post only intended as "food for thought".....beesting. scruffy (8/26/2000; 23:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 35590) Paper vs physical re. the excellent question."if gold and silver are in such supposed deficit, are coins and bars tracking the paper (futures) market?"I observe that industrial users use the futures market and they are perhaps the only candidates for "delivery" at thistime. There is a big difference between Big money Investors (BMI) and us gold bugs. In todays environment, people have been losing money ongold and silver. The BMI are not dumb. They do not invest to loose. They are plugged into the information we get in dribbles or that we speculate about. I have a number of friends inthe bulion business. Despitewhat we would all like to believe, invesstors sem to be selling. The market is thin and thus fragile, but as longas we buy 1, 10, or 100 oz at a time we amount to nothingcompared to those who can vector Mil$ or even Bil$ into this market. When that happens, then we will observe first hand what is refered to as a "gold rush". The guy who can buy 1 or 10 oz at today's prices will be pricedout of the market in a matter of a few trading sessions. If I remember COMEX reported 1 mil oz of gold and 200 mil oz of silver in stock late last week. One BMI could buy it allwithout significantly denting his available resources. When that happens.......We are blessed that we can take advantage of these lowPM prices. Buy Cheap. Buy Now. Get Physical. I haven'tgriped about gold being hammered by manipulators for quite a while now. I just smile and scratch up every free $I can and go visit one of my friends. Doesn't take long to accumulate a good nest egg. Hell, I would be happy to have a few more years of these depressed prices. Accumulate, accumulate....BC BNScruffy Trail Guide (8/26/2000; 22:25:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35589) Comment and Reply goldhunter (8/26/2000; 21:41:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35582)Mr. goldhunter and ALL:NOTE: It is rare that I am ever upset when talking with everyone here and truly I am smiling as I write this. The contrast of thoughts here is worth all the time spent reading. I'll answer that good question from you:--"Do you believe that futures set the price of gold?---Yes!!!!!!!!! If every trader that has taken the short side of a long gold contract,,,,,, has physical gold " " in his possession" " to deliver against his contract,,,,,,,,,,,, then that contract market has indeed set the true fundamental supply and demand price value of gold! Further,,,,,,(smile),,,,,, It also goes without saying,,,,,, that every trader on the long side of a contract must also have the cash to take delivery of said "in possession physical gold". If not then his bid is only a short term opinion that cannot be converted into a fundamental supply and demand function that sets the price value of gold.Further,,,,,,,,,(SMILE),,,,,, because we all know that neither of the above circumstances is true,,,,,,the line of logic pursued by goldhunter presents and confirms the point I keep making,,,,,,,,that the present contract price of gold that is used to trade all physical is,,,, indeed,,,,,, an understatement of and not the the true physical price. It represents a Western Style Opinion of where price should be IF they had the assets to complete the trade. This Style of investing is currently the reason Governments are able to keep the dollar price of gold low. However, do not complain and please encourage traders to continue to bet this way,,,,,, as it fills the vault to out advantage! Become a Physical Gold Advocate and hold a wealth no paper can ever value!Now I must depart,Thank you TownCrier and everyone FOA/ your trail guide TownCrier (8/26/2000; 22:11:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35588) Gold pricing...Goldhunter's msg#: 35582 Sir Goldhunter,After so much effort has been devoted to this topic at the forum by myself and others, I can't imagine that there is a single reader here who has not by now come to the full understanding that price discovery on the futures markets is what has been driving the boat. Other than premium adjustments as necessary during physical pinches, the supply and demand of paper (futures contracts) calls the tune. That, of course, is the problem many of the posters here have cited...there is no end to the supply of contracts that can be written by istitutions with determined shorting interests. FOA/Trail Guides concurrance with this certainly seems to be clear in the post from which you cited an excerpt.Regarding your latest comment, "My point in this discussion with Sir TrailGuide/FOA is that both futures and coins and bullion will move up in tandem when the trend changes..." what is your thought regarding the parallel Sir Aristotle draws between the undisputable similarity and default of all the gold contracts in 1971?On another note entirely...To Trail Guide:Your latest message to Henri was a masterwork. If people cannot now read the map of where we've been and where we're headed, I am at a loss to imagine how clearer directions could possibly be provided. Most excellent!Well, my rope is done. I'm outta here for a beer. Black Blade (8/26/2000; 22:07:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35587) Re: HBM post #35556 Thanks HBM, those numbers are quite interesting. From a cursory glance at the numbers, it would appear that there is a direct correlation of POG and POO. Though this is somewhat limited data, it is quite interesting that the highest prices are constrained in a band between 1979 and 1984 during the early 1980's recession. All postwar recessions were preceded by higher POO. The pundits are now claiming that oil is no longer important to the economy. That of course is absolutely absurd. The economy runs on energy, just as an army runs on its stomach. If the current rising POO translates into recession (which I think it will), then we could revisit higher POG. This will either result in higher inflation and higher POG, or as TG/FOA has stated that paper Gold and physical Gold will diverge. Maybe the recent defaults on the NYMEX and TOCOM Palladium markets are just a preview of what will happen as the physical Pd metal has a different market (at a presumably higher price) than the futures market (very restricted and probably undeliverable metal). These precious metals markets could get rather interesting in the next few months. The POO could be the key. goldhunter (8/26/2000; 21:57:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35586) Futures and "Cash" Together... My point in this discussion with Sir TrailGuide/FOA is that both futures and coins and bullion will move up in tandem when the trend changes..."paper will burn" is a quote that is often heard...but folks, futures do have access to physical (in most cases including Comex gold)and yes, some contracts DO settle in cash (dollars)but NOT gold/silver...Some may feel futures and physical will seperate when gold hits 10,000 or 20,000 or some price...It will be FUN seeing if it's true...Oil has doubled and then some in the last year and one-half (on the futures exchange) and yes we pay more at the pump too...and futures in oil and gold will open again Monday morning...The world financial markets need and demand the price discovery capability of futures.This is an issue difference only...I like FOA. I like his writing too. lamprey_65 (8/26/2000; 21:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35585) Read Carefully Taken from gold-eagle (yes, I hate to admit that I still read that forum after discovering what kind of person the proprietor is - but several good posters are found there) ...initially from this week's Barron's. Not an Einhorn fan by any means, but this article is interesting on many levels.Thanks to "AlterEgo" -- all emphasis are his, I believe.SIX DOLLAR SILVER IN THE NEXT 6-MONTHSBy Cheryl Strauss Einhorn Sometimes when the kids are quiet, it's time to check the playroom. Certainly the silver market has been quiet. In fact, despite strong underlying fundamentals, volatility is at its lowest level in a decade; prices are at their weakest point in a year. Last week, silver on the active September contract was trading near $4.86 per ounce. The poor price perfomance has certainly taken its toll on the major North American silver companies. Shares of Pan American Silver, Hecla Mining, Coeur d'Alene Mines and Sunshine Mining are all trading below $3 now; five years ago the lowest of the group was at $7, the highest at $20. Ross Beaty, chief executive of Pan American, agrees. "It certainly has been a bloodbath for primary-silver mining companies," he says. "It has been an ugly market and we're all unprofitable. Things are so bad that last week Sunshine was forced to file for bankruptcy protection. "We've had 12 years of prices averaging $4.90 an ounce, and we're retty sick of it," says Bill Davis, Sunshine's chief financial officer, who notes that most companies produce silver for a total cost, including overhead, of about $5.50 an ounce. "The money just hasn't been available to mining companies to do what they need to do, yet the fundamentals support higher prices." ndeed, this will be the market's tenth year where newly mined supplies will fall short of total demand amid strong growth from the industrial sector for items like photography. Eastman Kodak's film sales were up 8% domestically in the second quarter and 16% worldwide. Computer and electronic demand have been robust as well. But as noted, demand doesn't always dictate price, and therein lies opportunity. "I think it's a good time to buy," says Dennis Wheeler, chief executive of Coeur d'Alene. "We've noticed institutional investors are beginning to take a look at the metals. We've had a few meetings lately and we've noticed some movement into our stock in the second quarter with a couple of large trading days." Beaty says, "The fact that nothing is happening is unprecedented, and we think it will be short-lived. WE'RE LOOKING FOR PRICES OVER $6 IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS." So, why have prices been dormant? A new seller has come into the market in the past year: the Chinese. That, says Beaty, is "a reasonably significant change to the fundamentals." Until last year, China had been a net importer of the metal, buying between one and eight million ounces annually. Then, last year, in the wake of liberalized gold and silver markets, China sold 60 million ounces. This, even as the country's demand is growing. Kodak recognizes this and is building a $1.4 billion plant there. Hence, although supplies are up now, Beaty believes it is temporary. Too, there has been "little interest on the investor side," says Beaty. "We're not part of the New Economy." As investors have shied away from silver and silver-mining has exacerbated price moves. Nor does Barrick Gold's increase in its silver hedge position in the second quarter, from 14 million ounces to 20 million over the next five years, help matters. Jamie Sokalsky, Barrick's chief financial officer, says Barrick hedged because it liked the price in April, when silver was over $5. But he noticed that the market was thinner when he did the trade. "When you do a transaction now, it has more impact because there are fewer players," he says. "The moves down are happening with significantly less volume than in the past." He notes, however, that this means prices could rise more easily, too: "I AM FUNDAMENTALLY BULLISH ON SILVER. WE'RE HITTING THE BOTTOM AT THESE LEVELS. IT IS ONE OF THE MOST ATTRACTIVE METALS, and I think it will move above $5." He adds that Barrick doesn't plan to hedge any more silver anytime soon. Are these companies putting their money where their mouths are? Yes. According to the Commitment of Traders Report, compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to track the net-long and short positions of speculators and commercial hedgers, the speculators are selling into commercial buying. Speculators have increased their short sales lately, while commercials have substantially decreased theirs. Such a phenomenon normally correlates with a low in price. Result: SENTIMENT MAY BE AT AN EXTREME. PREPARE FOR A TURNAROUND. Trail Guide (8/26/2000; 21:44:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 35584) Reply Hello Henri,Your post (Henri (08/26/00; 07:59:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35549)---------------1) If $12 oil is incompatible with $320 gold, then $10 oil must have been extremely incompatible with $250 gold. To what extent was the recent explosion upward in oil prices a retaliation for continued downward manipulation of gold prices?----------------Henri, most of this maneuvering took place prior to the Euro being secure. There was a lot at stake if the Euro fell apart at that time. Politically it went something like this:a.(late 80s early to early 90s) US and Europe worked together to bring gold prices down: to make the dollar good in gold for oil and othersto allow some cheap physical purchasesto allow some long term contracts to be establishedto allow the continued flow of oil at reasonable, economy supporting rates paper gold had not inflated to anywhere near these current levelsso contracts were seen as supportableso contracts and physical were seen on almost equal footingb. (early 90s to mid 90s)the supply of freegold on the official level was beginning to run shortso CBs sold openly mostly to each other to create gold selling impressionso mine forward selling was encouraged originally engaging mostly CB goldmajor gold buyers were ready buyers with cash or lend able natural resourcesso naked paper selling began to imitate CB supplied gold so same naked paper selling supplied some mines forward sales contractsso falling paper gold prices drew out old line/ non oil physical bullion in exchange for paperso falling paper prices brought in cheap financiers to sell into this paper demandmarket is flooded with new paper and begins to override it's original purposeby now US knows the Euro will succeed and benefit from a rising physical gold pricec. (mid 90s to date)US and Europe split,,,, BIS takes Euro sideUS encourages London to join it in dollar support,,,, print more paperEurope and BIS stand to enter the world physical markets if gold falls below $280 before Euro is bornEuro comes onlineOil gold buyers don't like paper gold inflationOil stands to raise dollar oil prices if gold markets stay below $280Europe stands aside and watches knowing what rising oil will eventually do to US dollar / economyEurope adopts policy of "Freegold" by quarterly marking to the market bullion pricesEurope and BIS stand aside and endorse a flood of paper gold Eventual demise of dollar contract gold markets draws oil to Euro supportOil and Europe force Washington AgreementOil begins to raise dollar oil prices in effort to crush paper gold markets with inflation induced physical gold demand----Your questions------------2) How high is OPEC prepared to take oil, to force the gold price freeing agreement to a level they are comfortable with ($30,000/oz)? I am assuming that OPEC is voice of this group. Am I wrong?----------$75 to $100Europe / BIS are and always have been at least the political architects------3) when gold is freed, will $10 oil reappear?------10 dollars? Never.10 Euros? Absolutely----4) Can we look to the breakup of operations at the London Bullion exchange as the next signpost along the trail? -------Several outcomes:Look for paper trading to slow further, physical becomes rare or paper prices surge in a super run then quickly shut down as physical prices run awayor paper open interest surges as shorts try to cover before more players come to know about the condition of the markets.or paper prices plunge to less than $100 as all physical trading stops. Then markets shut as physical prices leap---5) Goldman Sachs is I believe as much involved in forward sales of oil and futures as they are in gold futures sales. I think this only because the oil index is also known as the Goldmans Sachs index. I may be wrong.----These guys are smart! Who knows, this could all pass and nothing happens at all! (big smile)-----How much of the "glut" of oil that drove prices down to $10/barrel existed only on paper? I am thinking that the same group that is driving gold down with paper supply learned this by doing the same with oil earlier. Will the breakup of the London operations signal it is past time to go long gold and short oil?-----Henri, it's my bet that the oil markets learned from the gold market. For myself, in these uncertain days, I would never short oil or anything that a hyperinflation could drive thru the roof. If I must trade gold trading physical with a dealer is the ticket. Sorry for the short format, I have to go.ThanksTrail Guide Trail Guide (8/26/2000; 21:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35583) Reply TownCrier (8/26/2000; 20:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 35578)A question for Trail Guidehttp://www.insidedenver.com/business/0826gree7.shtmlTownCrier,Ha! Ha! I think we are going to see a lot of requests in the future for things to go slowly. You know how it is, once someone else gets behind the wheel of your car,,,,,,, you can only direct! (smile) Now with oil in a win - win position and Europe playing the good guys,,,,,,, there is no room left to maneuver. Alan no longer can adjust policy except to add more gas. His recent rate hikes seem to be just a return to where we were before the LTCM disaster. All assets seem to know only one way to run and that is up. Just the direction a failing currency takes it's owners before it fails completely. When you think about it, Europe would like nothing better than for the dollar to get stronger as it inflates! If the US can keep the game going just a little longer while everyone gets what they want,,,, good for everybody,,,, right?TownC, I tried to load Gold Trails again. Didn't work. I think my post was too long, like you said. I'll watch and wait, see what Jeff does.One more post to Henri and I have to go.thanksTrail Guide goldhunter (8/26/2000; 21:41:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35582) Hi Mr. Crier... You may be the "delegate" to find out some important answers for us all...Would you be so kind to ask Mr. Kosares the following:If gold moves up in price $10 (basis Dec. Comex) what is his best guess for the change in price of a 1999 1oz US Gold Eagle bullion coin?To clear up your previous comment to me, please ask FOA the following yes/no question:Do you believe that futures set the price of gold?These are simple, easily answered questions...thanks for your help.Inquiring minds want to know... lamprey_65 (8/26/2000; 21:29:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 35581) goldhunter You raise a good point -- why, if gold and silver are in such supposed deficit, are coins and bars tracking the paper (futures) market? My partial answer would be that there is currently no other recognized pricing alternative. This really is the crux of the matter...if an alternate, recognized price discovery method were to appear, things might get very interesting. Until then, it is very difficult for people to feel that paying huge premiums over the only known benchmark makes sense.Of course, the other alternative is that all is just peachy with commodity futures. Anyone followed the recent shenanigans with palladium on the NYMEX? Is the price of palladium $724 or $724+ the expanding margin requirement? You be the judge. TownCrier (8/26/2000; 21:14:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 35580) Sir Goldhunter, It appears to me you've pulled that remark out of context As I read it, Sir Trail Guide does not dispute the price discovery role currently played by the futures market. What he does it to put the purpose of said role into their true context along with many other financial assets. You seem to have let the vital remainder of this sentence trail off in your excerpt, along with the equally important part of this message being conveyed in the paragraph that followed the sentence in question. This is what was said in that immediate regard, and of course, he goes on to build a larger point. What fault do you find with the larger context?"These future contracts serve no more purpose in setting pricing function ***than do all modern paper assets we today hold as wealth.*** In this larger sense, after rereading my post to him,,,,, one can see where the entire dollar world itself has become a "futures pricing arena" that "undervalues" almost every real usable item we function with in daily life. The dollar asset system, as we know it today is used as a value setting tool even though it,,,, like gold futures,,,, does not entail the removal of real goods from circulation." goldhunter (8/26/2000; 20:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35579) Who are we fooling?... A quote from the trail..."These futures contracts serve no more purpose setting pricing function..."Folks, it just is NOT true...A futures market is a price discovery environment that sets prices for many underlying "cash commodities" including gold...FOA can do his "best" to steer you clear...but evidence is on my side...Watch the WSJournal...they show both cash prices and futures for many commodities...look at a chart of both...not any harder than that...they trade TOGETHER because futures set prices for cash each day, every day...Ever wonder why your coin dealer does not change his price on Sat or Sun? Futures are closed (NY) oh, The dealer is closed too? HMMMM?They trade Together folks, from oil to wheat to gold...there may be slight differences in the day to day correlations, or by geogrphy (called basis) but they trade together.We see futures move up a couple dollars for example...guess what CPM Inc. does to their cash price on 1 oz. 1999 or 2000 gold eagles...Ask Trail Guide why Mr. Kosares changes almost EXACTLY with futures before you stare into a blinding light... TownCrier (8/26/2000; 20:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 35578) A question for Trail Guide http://www.insidedenver.com/business/0826gree7.shtml Because top officials will often use speeches to send messages to their peers, is is possible that this was the Fed Chairman's attempt to acknowledge that the dollar and U.S. markets were in a precarious position, and to urge his those with their finger on the trigger of "freegold" to please ease up and take things slowly?HEADLINE: Greenspan: Economic downturn could reverse free-market trendFed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a speech Friday at the central bank's annual retreat in Jackson, WY "Any notable shortfall in economic performance ... runs the risk of reviving sentiment against market-oriented systems," saying also that, "For now, the process of globalization is being aided by strengthening economic growth."And naturally, he tries to hang his hat on productivity being his best argument that the dollar may actually manage to hold its value somehow, if only his peers would be so kind as to see it this way, too. RossL (8/26/2000; 20:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35577) On 2000 Gold Eagles There have been more 1 oz. proofs struck than the regular 1 oz. business strikes. TownCrier (8/26/2000; 20:30:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 35576) Trail Guide Given the length that your Gold Trail has grown to, some of us here in The Tower think we should probably make an archive page for you that would include the first 6 months of your commentary...in proper top to bottom chronological order. It would be easily accessible from both the Home Page and from the Gold Trail page. I'm not sure if this latest thing is length related, but I've sent a note across the plains to Jeff so that he can mull it over and pull a lever or something.Meanwhile, I'll sit here braiding a rope so that I might one day be able to climb down. RossL (8/26/2000; 20:15:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35575) Its all Y2K related http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm I'm with Lamprey_65 on this one. The gold sales partied like it was 1999 with all the Y2K talk. In 25 years a 2000 gold American Eagle might be worth a little more in terms of fiat dollars to a collector who is trying to assemble a set. lamprey_65 (8/26/2000; 19:55:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35574) On 2000 Gold Eagles I'd have to say that dishoarding of gold coins of all types purchased specifically for Y2K preparedness is the main cause for the slow sales of current low U.S. Mint sales figures for 2000 Eagles. I expect the majority of this dishoarding activity is now over in both silver and gold. Trail Guide (8/26/2000; 19:44:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35573) Gold Trail TownCrier, The ISP presented a message saying it was out of menory. I won't mention the ISP name as you know who it is. I'll try again,,,,,,thanks (smile) TownCrier (8/26/2000; 19:32:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35572) The Gold Trail page Hello Sir Trail Guide!I noticed your difficulty, so I checked to see if the posting page for the Gold Trail was functioning, and I was able to pull it up without trouble. Were you? And if so, did it tell you that your password was incorrect when you tried to submit the post, or did it just "crank away" without actually updating the page? If so, perhaps the server was just going through a temporary tantrum. I would certainly encourage you to try again in order to keep your Trail commentary nicely organized and collected in that convenient location. Just let me know what the nature of the problem is in the event that your second effort also ecounters troubles. tedw (8/26/2000; 19:29:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35571) Inflation and real estate http://www.usagold.com What is the true rate of inflation?Not only have I noticed significant cost of gas increases at my local pump, but local housing prices are up---in some case way up.I appraise real estate for a living. Ive done a number of appraisals recently in Ashland, Oregon. Some of them have been double sales. One house sold 2/17/1999 for $275000. It just re-sold for$325000 even after having a portion of the site partitioned off. Thats a 15% increase. Local realtors in Ashland are saying prices are up 25% this year, and they are probably close. That looks like inflaton to me. beesting (8/26/2000; 19:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35570) Boxman, Java Man, HBM, American Eagle Coins. Went to the URL Sir Java Man provided, and found, as the price of Gold slowly dropped from a high of $417.00 in early 1996 to a low of around $252 in 1999 Gold coin sales increased in direct proportion to the drop in Gold price, with 1999 setting the all time high in sales volume. Coin buyers were bargain hunting!The only explanation I can think of for such LOW sales(37,000 ounces) of Gold coins in 2000 so far is;Marketing for Sacagawa "Golden" dollars has out done itself by diverting potential American Eagle Gold coin buyers into buying "cheaper" Sacagawa dollars, and some might not know the difference or even care that they are not getting real Gold.IMHO marketing is everything and with the right amount of "$" spent on marketing U.S. Gold coins, sales could soar.(Maybe some-body doesn't want that to happen...Who Knows??) Look at the money spent on marketing people(canidates)for the up-coming election...obscene!One bright note on coin sales,2000 "Silver" American Eagles look to be close to record volume, but than again look at the "LOW" price of Silver. My 2 Grams Worth.....beesting. Trail Guide (8/26/2000; 19:16:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35569) Couldn't post this on the Gold Trail? Something Wrong? Hello Cavan Man!In your post of ---- Cavan Man (08/21/00; 19:49:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35278)---- you asked for more detail. Something like a grocery list to check off as events move along (smile). The exact question came as: ----"What are some of the impediments to moving ahead with your "freegold" scenario?"---- Well, Cavan Man, one of the toughest problems investors have with following the Gold Trail stems from their perception of how our modern dollar money values things in the market place. I, we, all of us have discussed this extensively. Often from a somewhat different view than mine. From my interaction with people of various far reaching world backgrounds, one thing is clear: Investors and regular workers with a Western slant do not grasp what wealth is. Overwhelmingly they see their currency and paper investment portfolios on an equal footing in value with the same "real things" that raise our living standards. Yet, in real life, they cannot be equal because these paper assets are only an exercise able future claim on our "real things in life". Take my debate "Against" Goldhunter as an explanation example. His perception is typical in that the ---"prices bid for futures contracts are the market value of gold"---- (see msg#: 35427). These future contracts serve no more purpose in setting pricing function than do all modern paper assets we today hold as wealth. In this larger sense, after rereading my post to him,,,,, one can see where the entire dollar world itself has become a "futures pricing arena" that "undervalues" almost every real usable item we function with in daily life. The dollar asset system, as we know it today is used as a value setting tool even though it,,,, like gold futures,,,, does not entail the removal of real goods from circulation. But wait, you say,,, of course it does,,,, we buy and sell for our life's needs every day using dollars! Yes, this is true, Cavan Man but in that process we as an economic society only use a tiny fraction of this paper asset wealth to do that physical trading. As an example:Look at the daily trading of gold futures and gold future "look alikes" in London as they trade in a huge volume multiple of the actual physical market. As this lopsided trading is a comparison valuation that understates the value of gold,,,,, so too does the collective acceptance that dollar assets are held as equal to life's physical needs,,,,,, also understates the real value of all things in our lives. You see, a futures system that functions as our currency or currency contracts, values physical assets without taking these assets into our lives and by extension taking the assets out of the market. This is the current money world we live in. The dollar in your pocket is part of a much larger paper wealth system that has evolved into today's money system. A reserve system that is not tested against real "supply and demand" values. With these money futures we may leverage our perceived wealth by thinking we actually control "real assets" just by holding contracts or dollar denominated paper assets. In reality we only own claims on each other's ability to produce,,,,, just as a futures contract holder only holds a claim on another to produce physical. Expand this function to a level where today's dollar world is and we can grasp what others see in the real value of gold.This is the reality of perception that Another speaks of when he said -----"your wealth, it not what your currency say it is"-----. Truly, this statement was larger than life to anyone that could understand it's implications then and correctly act on it today! Unfortunately, most readers just went out and brought more paper denominated dollar gold assets. Many have lost a bundle thinking they were hedging when they were just playing the same dollar game. This takes us back to your initial question:Western society and Western influenced investors cannot grasp gold's value because they mentally must denominate it into currency first. To do this they turn to the "market place" as the undisputed tester of values. But, as shown above, our market place uses a currency system that is entering the end of it's timeline and therefore can no longer measure "things" on a simple supply and demand value basis.Some of the things on our "grocery list" are being checked off as we walk this Golden Trail. ==========This currency systems and the evolving nature of our current society that created this system is in the process of radically changing it's paper wealth structure. The government, as an extension of that society begins to support and maintain the asset value of almost everything. This is the engine that drives an eventual hyperinflation. Not a typical business expansion inflation we are used to, rather an all consuming, ending inflation that does not stop. At this point the concept of sound money takes a back seat to maintaining majority asset holdings on a permanent plateau. By extension, the official stance is moved to promote all paper assets as "national money". Stocks, bonds, business function and even general welfare is elevated to an equal footing with the need for a good sound money in your pocket. The mood becomes one of "what good is a sound dollar if we are deflating"? Check that one off your list because we are well on that road.============The international value of major currencies become more a function of "who can manipulate them the best" rather than their soundness. Forget the trade deficits, asset price bubbles, debt overflows or interest rates,,,,, it's who is best at controlling currency derivative function. Traders buy using "official control" as their determining value fundamentals. Truly, at this stage the prospects of a price deflation and it's opposing currency hardness are a distant joke. The US has now moved to using measures once reserved for third world systems when it comes to playing the money game. Example: "our national debt is being paid off"! Or the CPI rising .01%! Check this one off your list, it's happening now. ===============Those with power outside this game are seen making long term preparations for the day when the US dollar inflates away. They see where the dollar value is only a function of trade flow manipulations. Not real economic progress. They see where throwing ones entire economic system wide open to "bubble expansion" policy in a "come and get it while you can" experience,,,,, can only end one way. So they play the game while there is time and they play to win with gold! As USAGOLD poster Henri put it today in msg#: 35547: ---- " If one considers wealth to be the accumulation of unencumbered assets of enduring value, then the pursuit of fiat profit to be converted to real wealth makes sense.-----(nice post Henri)The unanswered question that "noone" could ever understand was "outside the other CBs, who has been buying all this gold over these years?" Check this one off your list my friend.================The Washington Agreement has placed us "on the road" to one of the most exciting changes for our current physical gold market in it's short 25 year history. This part of the world reserve currency system was about to radically evolve with respect to the world dollar gold values. To date, the ongoing dramatic fall off of LBMA trading from it's (also) short public life is leading to an eventual official evaporation of dollar based paper gold banking. Someone in Another's group pointed to that spike in paper trading long before most had ever heard of LBMA,,,, and did so by saying that a drop below $360 would cause it. That ensuing round of massive paper playing was but a backstop to maintain the dollar reputation with low paper prices prior to Euro presentation. I point this out because many new watchers of our gold wars have no knowledge of this important play on the political currency chess board. This paper game got out of hand before the Euro was born and the BIS was ready to hold the gold line at $280 if needed. But, the Euro was born and is now a functioning currency. Today our paper gold game has come full circle and most of the players that know anything are shaking at the prospect of a pure physical market that will stand next to the Euro. Forget the gross volumes of derivatives on the books of majors, they don't mean a thing. They can keep writing contracts all they want but with trading volume falling away, eventually there will be no market to value these assets. If this process is allowed to mature fully, major pain is coming to paper hard money investors worldwide. They have hitched their wagon to assets that require an operating paper system to sell into. Outside the private markets for existing and circulating bullion and coins, the entire industry will shutter to a halt as the mess is worked out. Investors will be kicking themselves as bullion soars while an extended workout phase brings their asset values to almost zero. Sure, something will give,,,, maybe? Maybe we are at the paper price lows now? But most "regular" hard money people that read these Thoughts are in the game for asset preservation during a world currency crisis and or inflation. Ten ounces of French gold coins and $60,000 in mining stocks and derivatives will make them sick during such a paper work out. Other proud hard paper asset holders proclaim they have millions in the industry and are not the least worried. They also said the Euro would never happen, oil will never see $30 without $600 gold and $280 gold would mean a major US depression! Well,,,, Don't check this one off yet. It's still playing out.=======================Then there is oil. I will repost my recent and now "edited" post to oldgold:Trail Guide (8/25/2000; 8:55:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35512) Commentoldgold (8/25/2000; 8:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35510)Energy and GoldHello Oldgold,I know you have held a forceful opinion for sometime that the US can and is still controlling oil producers. Your thinking was no doubt rightfully influenced by our last ten to twenty years of experience with the political world of oil. What has been changing for the last number of years was our realization that a new currency would be available to the world. True, this Euro is nothing to write home about now but we as a Western thinking group tend to underweight it's strategic importance as an "available alternative" to the dollar if needed. This subtle fact has shifted the playing field considerably when viewing the US ability to control oil flow. Edited note: this next item is where we should watch for the dollar to be impacted by an increase in oil prices. For oil prices to be this high after all the political favors we are owed,,,, something must be countering that leverage. The US must be endorsing the move?---------- Today, oil flow has moved from playing a fundamental game of pricing "use value" with supply and demand to pricing it's "monetary value" in supporting any major currency block. Concessions are now there for the taking by oil producers. Dollar prices for oil can rise considerably higher with the US giving behind the scene support for this action. In addition, the world paper gold markets can and are being dismantled as a further concession to retain dollar settlement of oil. -------------Strangely, the coming surge in physical prices are now a 180 degree shift from keeping them low in support of oil flow. Edited note: This next was the purpose for the short history of the LBMA high volume. It's use is now behind us.In the future, rising physical bullion stores (and dollar prices) will play an important roll in playing a failing inflationary dollar against an ever likely increasing shift towards Euro oil settlement. No matter how this eventually plays, our dollar paper gold markets will dissolve as free priced bullion supports the EBS / Euro system. Oldgold, Your posted article goes a long way to seeing the mental shift some Western thinkers are only just now grasping. It's seems even Goldman has printed a paper calling for 50 oil! It will be very interesting to see how their stock price is valued as they try to ride the middle ground between a short gold position vs long oil. In the end their much vaulted paper gold game should make them a ton of money, but without a market available to realize those gains? The more GATA talks, the more the paper world sweats. Not from a short squeeze, but from their market being officially evaporated. I know you, oldgold must also (smile) as I do at that thought!=========================Cavan Man, check off rising oil prices.We are on the road to "Freegold"!thanksTrail Guide Boxman (8/26/2000; 18:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35568) Opec statement http://www.itn.co.uk/news/20000824/business/10opec.shtml I thought that this statement seems to be typical in todays business environment, whether in oil, PM's, or any other segment. Books are cooked,and lies are blatenly told. No honor, or truthfulness.Now don't get me wrong, I think that that an additional 500,000 barrels a day is like pissing in the ocean, it won't alleviate the many problems in oil. I wish that they would pump the additional barrels, and then it may become obvious to everyone that we have shipping and refinery constraints,and maybe it will even dawn on a few, that we do not have a viable energy policy.It will be either oil, or a falling dollar, that will start gold on it's upward path. My guess it will be oil first, the falling dollar will be like the afterburner. <<Asked if an OPEC ministers' policy-making meeting on September 10 would add another 500,000 barrels per day to output under the terms of a price stability mechanism, he said:"When the ministers meet they are not bound by whatever they have agreed - it could be more or it could be less.">> RossL (8/26/2000; 18:16:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35567) More charts http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/hbm.htm Here are some charts of HBM's data that he posted earlier. A picture is worth a thousand words. RossL (8/26/2000; 18:15:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 35566) The SDR chart -- HBM http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_sdr.html This is a link to a discussion on the SDR chart, courtesy of USAGOLD and Sir Town Crier. There was also an excellent discussion back in February or March between Sir ORO and Sir Town Crier that I didn't save a link to. Boxman (8/26/2000; 17:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35565) Fleckenstein on silver Fleckenstein, on Thursday, and Friday, alluded to some upcoming news regarding silver. Any ideas as to what this may be about? I have several bags of pre-65 coins, so my interest in silver almost rivals my interest in Gold.I would also like to offer my standing O to the participants from Thursday. It was one of the most stimulating and interesting days on the forum, in my opinion.My thanks to JavaMan for the link to the sales numbers for the last 8 years.I am in agreement with HBM's comment concerning the minting #'s, "nothing about this makes any sense to me". Need more help please. JavaMan (8/26/2000; 15:02:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35564) Boxman, HBM, re American Eagles... http://www.usmint.gov/bullion/annualsales/sales2000.cfm This site has the sales numbers for the last eight years. Curious that February and July had zero sales. As you point out, Hill Billy, I think the real question is how many have been minted. It is also possible that the US mint is selling all that it mints so these numbers would reflect sales and mint volume. If that's the case, I would think these rascals could have a substantial premium down the road. Hill Billy Mitchell (8/26/2000; 14:46:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35563) Correction on AE 1-ounce coins post below I posted:"For example the retail price of pre-2000 American Eagles is higher than year 2000 one-ounce American Eagles". My comment should read "lower than the year 2000 coins but just by a small amount of about 1-2%. This price difference should be much greater if there is a true shortage of supply of Gold American Eagles.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (8/26/2000; 14:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35562) @ Boxman re: American Eagle Sales The following excerpts from August 21, 2000 Coin World:..."Sales of Uncirculated gold American Eagles in July reached only 3,000 ounces for the entire month. During the same month in 1999, the U.S. Mint recorded sales of 165,000 ounces...The July Uncirculated gold American Eagle sales totals comprise 500 ounces of the half-ounce coin, or 1,000 coins, 500 ounces of quarter-ounce Amercan Eagles, or 2,000 coins, and 2,000 ounces of tenth-ounce American Eagles, or 20,000 coins. There were no sales of 1-ounce gold American Eagles in July. In July 1999, the Mint recorded sales of 132,000 1-ounce gold American Eagles. During Calendar year 2000 the Mint has recorded sales of...9,000 of the one-ounce coins...It appears that the sales information which you may be correct. I would note that amount of sales reported by the U. S. Treasury Department may not be the same as the amount of coins minted.I do not have an answer; however nothing about this makes any since to me. For example the retail price of pre-2000 American Eagles is higher than year 2000 one-ounce American Eagles. With this almost miunte supply of one-ounce coins the expectation would be that year 2000 dated coins would be retail at a price far higher than the retail price of the earlier dated coins.I wonder if the mintage numbers vs the sales numbers released by the Treasury Department are quite different. You have brought a valid question Sir Boxman.Someone help us here. It seems that if the sales were so low because of supply shortage at the Mint, the market demand would exceed the supply so greatly that the price of the coins at retail would be phenominally higher. What would make more sense would that the "mind manipulators" have been so successful that the demand for the gold bullion coins of any type has fallen to insignificance. If this is true I am, along with just a few of you out there, nearly all alone, for my personal demand for the one-ounce Eagles now has not changed from that of my personal 1999 demand. My demand is limited only by the amount of excess cash I can come up with each month with to purchase them.hbm Hill Billy Mitchell (8/26/2000; 14:29:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 35561) @ Boxman re: American Eagle Sales The following excerpts from August 21, 2000 Coin World:..."Sales of Uncirculated gold American Eagles in July reached only 3,000 ounces for the entire month. During the same month in 1999, the U.S. Mint recorded sales of 165,000 ounces...The July Uncirculated gold American Eagle sales totals comprise 500 ounces of the half-ounce coin, or 1,000 coins, 500 ounces of quarter-ounce Amercan Eagles, or 2,000 coins, and 2,000 ounces of tenth-ounce American Eagles, or 20,000 coins. There were no sales of 1-ounce gold American Eagles in July. In July 1999, the Mint recorded sales of 132,000 1-ounce gold American Eagles. During Calendar year 2000 the Mint has recorded sales of...9,000 of the one-ounce coins...It appears that the sales information which you may be correct. I would note that amount of sales reported by the U. S. Treasury Department may not be the same as the amount of coins minted.I do not have an answer; however nothing about this makes any since to me. For example the retail price of pre-2000 American Eagles is higher than year 2000 one-ounce American Eagles. With this almost miunte supply of one-ounce coins the expectation would be that year 2000 dated coins would be retail at a price far higher than the retail price of the earlier dated coins.I wonder if the mintage numbers vs the sales numbers released by the Treasury Department are quite different. You have brought a valid question Sir Boxman.Someone help us here. It seems that if the sales were so low because of supply shortage at the Mint, the market demand would exceed the supply so greatly that the price of the coins at retail would be phenominally higher. What would make more sense would that the "mind manipulators" have been so successful that the demand for the gold bullion coins of any type has fallen to insignificance. If this is true I am, along with just a few of you out there, nearly all alone, for my personal demand for the one-ounce Eagles now has not changed from that of my personal 1999 demand. My demand is limited only by the amount of excess cash I can come up with each month with to purchase them.hbm Hipplebeck (8/26/2000; 14:01:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 35560) (No Subject) The new economy jobs are kind of like calling it a job when you get into a pokemon card trading frenzy. Aristotle (8/26/2000; 13:51:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 35559) Three posts--JMB, Henri, and TownCrier JMB:How can you say you "give up" when your following comments are exactly on target as the answer I knew you would discover. You said,------"All systems will break down because humans always go to excess...it's part of our nature. The breakdown should not be feared...it should be anticipated. For those who successfully anticipate and prepare for an economic breakdown, gold should be made available for their benefit. Gold ... it's part of a plan."-----It must be recognized that physical Gold itself doesn't fail, but rather it is the SYSTEM of banking set up to facilitate the use of Gold as currency that invevitably fails "because humans always go to excess," as you admit. It must further be recognized that 1971 didn't mark the failure of Gold or of the dollar, but rather, it marked the failure of the Gold banking and Gold settlement SYSTEM. The system had been streched to excess and it failed.The problem is always that the system, to facilitate such things as lending to worthy borrowers, always employs a "paper component" to represent ownership of Gold, and it is always this "paper component" that gets inflated and streched until it first undermines the proper valuation of the physical Gold component in the system, and then discredits the system altogether.Prior to 1971, the apparent value of the dollar began to fall, and prices of things began to rise, this despite the fact that each dollar still carried the government guarantee of fixed Gold convertibility. The failure was simply because the paper component of the Gold financial system was expanding under forces of human behavior. For the same reason that the reletive dollar value dropped prior to 1971, even though the dollar *conceivably* was still convertible to Gold, we have now been seeing the relative Gold value dropping as represented by such things as futures contracts. The paper component of the bullion banking arena has been inflated to the point of undermining the proper valuation of the physical Gold component in this latest system, and is on the way to fully discrediting the system into failure.So why not simply acknowledge this monetary reality? We must properly develop a system that naturally employs a Gold component and a paper component, but puts a "firewall" between the two such that Gold's valuation as a wealth-preserving asset cannot be pulled lower by the inevitable inflation of the paper component of circulating currencies. The euro-system seems well on the way, with their Gold assets regularly marked to market--the price and valuation to rise nicely over time as the rest of the economy and the euro supply grows.Henri:You offered a magnificent post today that provides a fine backdrop to this message of what influences the shifting valuation of Gold and paper. Some elements worth repeating in that regard are------"From a fiat based viewpoint where the overwhelming drive appears to be to put the fiat to work to create more fiat (net profit after subtraction of inflationary losses), the "cost" of retaining fiat savings vs acquiring fiat based paper investments has been "dear" of late. "Saving" has been politically disfavored by the continued taxation of both vehicles. If you are going to be taxed and inflated out of your ability to accumulate fiat, then you may as well go for the highest rate of return possible mindset."----And from this we can all see that, as a population, having our paper accounts grow for their own sake (in an effort to enrich us) really only succeeds in inflating the overall paper supply and thus decreasing the valuation of the individual currency unit accordingly. There is no net increase of real wealth in the world, or in your possession. Only paper. If you don't actually convert it to something real, it only has the appearance of wealth until the next system failure arrives.---"People who are fixated in the pursuit of the almighty dollar measure progress as the rate of dollar accumulation. They observe the holding of both fiat savings (with their reduced rate of return) and gold as liabilities upon their progress. Well, what do they expect from an item that has true lasting value? The "cost" of holding savings in general and gold in particular is "dear" and not only unjustifiable but unfathomable to those who see through fiat eyes. Much like fiat cash, gold does not create more of itself just sitting there."---That's right. And ever since events in 1971 took Gold out of the Dollar-banking realm, the bullion banking realm has been actively engaged, in part, to pick up where Gold/dollar banking left off in the pre-1971 days...trying to grow the size of the Gold accounts. But as you all know, the size of Gold accounts can only be meaningfully grown through MINING. The process emplyed through banking only manages to grow the size of Gold accounts by inflating the paper components of those accounts--Gold loans, Gold contracts, Gold deriviatives. This inflation undermines the Gold value, and inevitably discredits the system into failure.Obviously, given this statement above, this is one point where I would disagree with the claim you made, Henri, where you said, "Unlike fiat cash, it does not dissipate in value by credit expansion (printing of more paper just like it)."However, the key difference between holding the physical Gold component within the dying days of a Gold System and holding a paper component during the final days, is that after the workout of the collapse, the physical Gold will maintain its proper valuation. The paper component will become as nothing, because it was the existence (and abundance) of this paper component that ushered in the collapse of the system as a means to purge this same paper.Now let's take a fresh look at something else you said that merits a good investigation. you said: "But is it [holding Gold savings] more dear than fiat based savings once inflation and taxation have taken their toll? In fiat based "value" terms, savings retained in the form of gold have turned in a rather dismal performance."Here is where we must look to Thursday's TownCrier post regarding the price of Gold for the past 30 years as provided by Hill Billy Mitchell in terms of nominal price, and also in constant 1999 dollars and in constant 1970 Gold-standard dollars. Townie said,---"the fourth column (representing the equivalent prices in terms of the the 1970 dollar which was itself officially defined as one-thirtyfifth ounce of gold) clearly shows that despite the massive mining effort and flood of derivatives since that time, the "dearness" of gold has still managed to almost double; otherwise, we must all admit, the price of an ounce today as represented in "1970 dollars" would still be $35. It isn't. One ounce as of 1999 is as dear as 63.14 of those "gold-backed" dollars, or put another way, despite production and derivatives, one ounce today is as dear as 1.8 ounces then. All things considered, that's not bad performance for an item that many are content to view as a neutral "insurance" asset.Now just imagine how much dearer an ounce might become in the event of a derivatives bust..."----Clearly, if we can assume the constant-dollar adjustments to be reasonably accurate, Townie points out that we are seeing a strange phenomenon indeed as revealed by the prices in 1970 Gold-standard dollars. Last year, people valued one ounce of Gold at a rate of 63-thirtyfifths of an ounce (1.8oz) whereas in 1970 people valued one ounce at a rate of 35-thirtyfiftsh fo and ounce (1.0oz). So what does this truly show us? In the past thirty years, we all know that the dollar has lost a significant percentage of its valuation at the hands of its inflated supply which has been expanded through banking. Yet remarkably for Gold, even despite thirty years of Gold supply inflation through both expansion of physical and paper supplies (via mining and bullion banking/derivatives, respectively), the valuation of an ounce of Gold has nonethess CLIMBED by 1.8 times. And as Townie points out, just consider how much of the apparent supply has been artificially inflated through derivatives, and how much higher should the valuation become when much of this artificial supply vanishes in a puff of derivative smoke. Wow.Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle Boxman (8/26/2000; 13:26:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 35558) Minting #'s for eagles- 1999 vs 2000 I got this off of another board. There was no link, and I didn't feel like purusing IP for verification. I am hoping some of the Knights will be able to verify. If these numbers are correct, Y2K demand wouldn't account for this. One possible explanation would be a shortage of gold.Comments?LOOK AT THESE PRODUCTION FIGURES COMPARED TO 1999.Year 2000 1 Oz. Gold Eagles; so far 10,000 coins. 1999 was 1,491,000produced.Year 2000 1/2 Oz. Gold Eagles; so far 26,000 coins. 1999 was 244,000produced.Year 2000 1/4 Oz. Gold Eagles; so far 12,000 coins. 1999 was 560,000produced.Year 2000 1/10 Oz. Gold Eagles; so far 90,000 coins. 1999 was 2,700,000produced. Bonedaddy (8/26/2000; 13:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35557) Get Back, Loretta!!! With the fall elections looming I am forced to ponder the various possible outcomes. I have lived my entire life as a conservative, since my earliest recollection. But, what do I mean by conservative? I mean in a general sense that I have sought to conserve my way of life, my honor, my values, and the liberties that I hold dear. Rather than reaching out to get more, I have tended to focus on being happy with what I have. Yet, more has been given to me. And this, not as a result of my striving to attain it, but rather it seems to have fallen to me by default, when no others emerged who were prepared to take the responsibility. The values I hold are not to my credit at all, but a result of my upbringing. I was raised in a family, in a time, in a town, where these values were emphasised. At times, I have taken excursions from my chosen path of life. As a result, I have met with failure, dissapointment, disillusionment,and dishonor. These excursions from the truth have only served to prove to me that the original choices, which I adopted from my upbringing, were correct. When I witness the contempt that so many Americans have for their liberty, I am horrified. Yet, I have compassion for their foolishness, for I too have played the prodigal son. This election will decide many things. The Supreme Court will be loaded by either a Republican administration or a Democratic one. Increasingly, laws have been determined by court precedent, rather than by legislation, as the Constitutional separation of powers intended. Our courts have gradually begun to make up the rules as they go along, rather than interpreting what the representatives of the people intended when legislation was passed. Yes, I intend to vote for the conservative candidates again, but I wonder, how much good will it do for conservative to again take control of the White House? We the people have already demonstrated that we will tolerate damn near anything, so long as we are allowed our own excesses and indulgences. What does it hurt to lie a little, steal a little, or have an extramarital affair or two? The entire nation has already given its tacit approval on the evening news! It's funny. We have national jokes. Let's all have a good belly laugh about the missing nuclear secrets too, while were at it. How do we turn this nation around? Most people don't seem to believe that a problem exists. What will it take to get most people to believe there IS a problem? It may take a crisis. Very few have ever experienced being cold or hungry or have been stalked like an animal in their own neighborhood streets. Go ahead, try defending your soft, ample, behind with a nine iron. This is it folks. The time is now. Somewhere between Elvis shaking his pelvis on Ed Sullivan's show and Clinton shaking his in the Oval Office, we took a detour. We all got stoned and woke up naked, in someplace strange. Time to turn it around now and go back home. Whenever you hit the wall, eventually you get around to asking God how you got there. Please, ask now, or I guarantee you'll do it later. Hill Billy Mitchell (8/26/2000; 13:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35556) Real price comparisons Much thanks to you Black Blade for the Nominal prices provided in your post # 35546. That is exactly the information I needed to do the following work. If we study this picture very closely we will be, IMO, more able to discern the words of Another. I have been reviewing "Another's Thoughts" provided by USAGOLD and the link provided by Steve from KITCO's files on "Another's" posts over there. I believe that by referring the the following tables we can watch with better vision. As another often said,"We watch together, yes?", and "time will prove all things."Cavan Man's comment per # 35552 and many questions and comments such as Henri's on this forum, when placed under the microscope of the tables which appear below, help me to determine for myself the validity of the valuable information and opinions offered on this valuable forum.We need more "real" tables like this. RossL, you may have already done so but if not, could you please explain your SDR graph in lamen's terms for us. How we read it and what it means, or refer us to previous posts which do so.I admit that these real price comparisons are not perfect because we cannot depend on the "Core of engineers" to give us honest figures concerning price indexes. However, the following still gives us the picture and we know, do we not, that a picture is worth a thousand words.A look at the real price of Gold:Column 1 = YearColumn 2 = Avg. annual nominal price of goldColumn 3 = Avg. annual price of gold in 1999 US dollarsColumn 4 = Avg. annual price of gold in 1970 US dollars 1970 35.94 158.75 35.941971 40.80 170.18 38.531972 58.16 232.59 52.661973 97.32 376.76 85.291974 159.26 580.57 131.441975 161.02 528.81 119.721976 124.84 375.79 85.081977 147.71 420.26 95.141978 193.22 516.19 116.861979 306.68 761.43 172.381980 612.56 1,364.05 308.791981 460.03 902.53 204.301982 375.67 668.20 151.281983 424.35 710.70 160.911984 360.48 585.02 132.441985 317.26 493.66 111.771986 367.66 552.19 125.001987 446.46 658.04 148.981988 436.94 621.63 140.741989 381.44 521.31 118.021990 383.51 500.14 113.211991 362.11 448.04 101.431992 343.82 408.25 92.421993 359.77 414.74 93.901994 384.00 429.77 97.311995 384.17 419.09 94.891996 387.77 412.70 93.411997 330.98 342.00 77.421998 294.24 298.95 67.681999 278.88 278.88 63.14A look at the real price of Crude Oil:Column 1 = YearColumn 2 = Avg. annual nominal price of crudeColumn 3 = Avg. annual price of crude in 1999 US dollarsColumn 4 = Avg. annual price of crude in 1970 US dollars1970 3.28 14.49 3.281971 3.48 14.52 3.291972 3.48 13.92 3.151973 3.98 15.41 3.491974 6.95 25.34 5.741975 7.64 25.09 5.681976 8.59 25.86 5.851977 8.78 24.98 5.661978 9.29 24.82 5.621979 12.65 31.41 7.111980 21.84 48.63 11.011981 35.06 68.78 15.571982 31.77 56.51 12.791983 29.35 49.16 11.131984 28.87 46.85 10.611985 26.80 41.70 9.441986 14.73 22.12 5.011987 17.55 25.87 5.861988 14.71 20.93 4.741989 17.81 24.34 5.511990 22.37 29.17 6.601991 19.04 23.56 5.331992 18.32 21.75 4.921993 16.19 18.66 4.231994 14.98 16.77 3.801995 16.38 17.87 4.051996 20.31 21.62 4.891997 18.86 19.49 4.411998 12.31 12.51 2.831999 16.56 16.56 3.75A look at the real price of Gasoline:Column 1 = YearColumn 2 = Avg. annual nominal price of gasolineColumn 3 = Avg. annual price of gasoline in 1999 US dollarsColumn 4 = Avg. annual price of gasoline in 1970 US dollars1970 0.36 1.59 0.361971 0.36 1.50 0.341972 0.36 1.44 0.331973 0.39 1.51 0.341974 0.53 1.93 0.441975 0.57 1.87 0.421976 0.61 1.84 0.421977 0.66 1.88 0.431978 0.67 1.79 0.411979 0.90 2.23 0.511980 1.25 2.78 0.631981 1.38 2.71 0.611982 1.30 2.31 0.521983 1.24 2.08 0.471984 1.21 1.96 0.441985 1.20 1.87 0.421986 0.93 1.40 0.321987 0.95 1.40 0.321988 0.95 1.35 0.311989 1.02 1.39 0.321990 1.16 1.51 0.341991 1.14 1.41 0.321992 1.13 1.34 0.301993 1.11 1.28 0.291994 1.11 1.24 0.281995 1.15 1.25 0.281996 1.23 1.31 0.301997 1.23 1.27 0.291998 1.06 1.08 0.241999 1.16 1.16 0.26HBM Black Blade (8/26/2000; 10:31:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35555) re: Al Fulchino msg. 35548 I don't currently live in Montana, though I am from Missoula, MT originally. I am now in Nevada gold country. But there is certainly a lot of great whitewater rafting in Montana. I also found some great places in Idaho as well. In Montana, there is the Flathead River near Glacier National Park, which is an excellent trip. There is the Stillwater River from around Asarokee, Mt., and the Yellowstone River near Gardiner just north of Yellowstone National Park and Gallintin River near Bozeman are in beautiful country as well. I also like some areas of Idaho that are very nice. One of my favorites is the Lochsa River west of the Idaho/Montana border past Lolo Hot Springs that goes west into the Idaho Batholith region. Other areas are the Salmon River near Salmon, ID, and the Palisades River and Snake River in Southeastern Idaho. As far as the festival is concerned, the Rocky Mountain Oysters aren't bad really, just a bit gritty. But one can always chase them with some good beer like "Moose Drool" or "Scapegoat". Well, got a limit of rainbows this morning, and time to get another. Winter is coming on and time to stock the freezer. Galearis (8/26/2000; 10:08:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35554) hands on silver It has been an exciting summer in Ontario's northland where one can still admire the frothing edge of frontier life where the logging trucks bleed out this countries future wealth 24 hours a day (except weekends and holidays - they start again at midnight the following day). However, the Longlac area, of which I speak, was discovered to be still a utopia for the visiting botanist and spectacular populations of Calypso orchids and Amerorchis were enjoyed (although most of the accessible upland forests are graveyards of stumps). If anyone ever holds the illusion that the human organism has much of a future, I invite you to visit and enjoy the ambiance of this area. But I digress in topic from things metal precious.I also had the pleasure of spending some quality time in Cobalt, Ontario this summer, and I am pleased to comment to you all that it is still possible to collect native silver high grade on some of the old muck piles in some of the old mine properties of the area. The metal detector crowd did not get it all, and eyes still CAN work better than technology. But it won't pay for the gas to get there anymore. tommy (8/26/2000; 10:01:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35553) SteveH A few days back, you wanted to know something about how robust the real estate market is in other parts of the country, I remember.I can't remember where you said you were from, but here is an appraisal index map for residential real estate in Travis County, Tx. (Austin, Tx.) showing % change in appraised values from '99 to '00 YTD.http://www.austin360.com/realestate/features/graphic_mapvalues.htmlThis page shows it in tabular form, with more detail.http://www.austin360.com/realestate/features/austin_table.htmlThere is an article attempting to describe the state of the real estate market in and around Austin in today's Austin paper, but it's not in the web edition of the Austin-American Statesman. It did say closings are off and inventory is up slightly, but it's still no buyer's market.I'll scan the article and post relevant details later. Cavan Man (8/26/2000; 9:18:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35552) Henri WhatI read between the lines;simply: "You cannot have it both ways. You cannot have low gold and low oil; only one or the other. Soon you must choose." Cavan Man (8/26/2000; 9:13:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35551) Henri Oilfutures About twoyears agothere was an allegation by aguy named Matt Simmons (Houston) that oil futures were being manipulated on the NY mercantile exchange. Simmons was originally interviewed by Barrons but the allegation was revealed in some personal correspondence. Henri (08/26/00; 08:10:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 35550) Trail Guide More questions 5) Goldman Sachs is I believe as much involved in forward sales of oil and futures as they are in gold futures sales. I think this only because the oil index is also known as the Goldmans Sachs index. I may be wrong.How much of the "glut" of oil that drove prices down to $10/barrel existed only on paper? I am thinking that the same group that is driving gold down with paper supply learned this by doing the same with oil earlier. Will the breakup of the London operations signal it is past time to go long gold and short oil? Henri (08/26/00; 07:59:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35549) Trail Guide While perusing the archives of Another (part 1) at the link supplied by Steve H. (THANKS STEVE!), I ran across the statements below: ExcerptsDate: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:22 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253: REPLY: Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:06 Schultz ( ANOTHER ) ID#288349: Schultz, Your view is a good one. The perception of the US is one of your view from where you stand. Many do not hold America as a "taker without cause". At a low ratio of gold per barrel, with gold priced high enough, the USA would no doubt receive oil, relative to today at perhaps $8.00. The Us gold reserve and in ground reserve would last a great while. Also, the US gold reserve value would increase a great deal! That, your Washington would understand, VERY WELL! Date: Fri Mar 20 1998 22:12ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedI hope all persons could see the "new" true nature of the Central Banks this week. I call it "The change that did happen"! If you read the post of Sat. Mar 07 1998 13:08 Another, that was written for me, it speaks of it all. The banks do want gold to rise now, and they will pull in physical gold to replace leases, even if they must "pay high on the market". They do not rollover these loans now. It was never the intent, for gold to fall from $320 / $360 range. The fall happened as the paper gold market is "out of control"! As physical is brought back into this range, much will be done to hold LBMA together. We watch togeather, yes? Also, see the post of Fri. Jan 23 1998 18:03 Another. There was offered the intent of crude oil going to $12.00 US range. That price was found "this week". Hear me, twelve dollar oil does not want or need gold under $320, I know! Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 22:35ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedREPLY, Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 20:58 ...SNIPThe large gold backing for the Euro and the "much greater" gold reserves for the individual countries of the Euro, is a direct result from observations of gold buying by oil! If it is well known by the BIS that a move by oil to bring crude to $10.00 US, is a precursor to an "new world oil currency", then it is well known to the Euro makers! Gold will be managed back to a range of $320/$360 with much hope for participation of Euro as "the" "currency/gold" payment for oil. My knowledge is that the new range will bring a breakup to the London operation, with the ensuing run by gold to infinity. We will watch this, together, yes? I offer my past thought: UNSNIPDate: Sat Apr 04 1998 20:42ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved...SNIP...When the battle to keep gold from devaluing oil ( in direct gold for oil terms ) is lost, the dollar will find "no problem" with $30,000 gold, as it will be seen as a "benefit for all" and "why did noone see this sooner"? UNSNIPOK...all that said, and let us for a moment consider it as gospel, I have a few questions.1) If $12 oil is incompatible with $320 gold, then $10 oil must have been extremely incompatible with $250 gold. To what extent was the recent explosion upward in oil prices a retaliation for continued downward manipulation of gold prices?2) How high is OPEC prepared to take oil, to force the gold price freeing agreement to a level they are comfortable with ($30,000/oz)? I am assuming that OPEC is voice of this group. Am I wrong?3) when gold is freed, will $10 oil reappear?4) Can we look to the breakup of operations at the London Bullion exchange as the next signpost along the trail? Al Fulchino (08/26/00; 07:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 35548) Black Blade (08/25/00; 21:51:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 35536) BB, I love Montana, but I might pass on that festival (smile), I took the family whitewatering yesterday. Do you have any good whitewater up there? Henri (08/26/00; 07:07:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35547) Town Crier Post # 35476 "Dearness" At the end of your postSNIP(I have used the term "dear" in deference to the recent disputes on the meaning of "price" and of "value". To say "dearness" is my attempt at splitting the middle so that the message reaches both sides of this debate.)UNSNIPI really like this term. It seems related somehow to Aristotles "bottom of the pendulum" position...which I perceived to mean the holding of actual physical gold through the ups and downs of its price gyrations knowing that its "value" is beyond reckoning in terms of fiat currencies. In this sense, dearness can be anchored to that position. From a fiat based viewpoint where the overwhelming drive appears to be to put the fiat to work to create more fiat (net profit after subtraction of inflationary losses), the "cost" of retaining fiat savings vs acquiring fiat based paper investments has been "dear" of late. "Saving" has been politically disfavored by the continued taxation of both vehicles. If you are going to be taxed and inflated out of your ability to accumulate fiat, then you may as well go for the highest rate of return possible mindset. Likewise, the "cost" of holding gold (the fiat priced commodity) and its associated product lines (long) of late has been even more "dear" in terms of the fiat accumulation imperative. But is it more dear than fiat based savings once inflation and taxation have taken their toll? In fiat based "value" terms, savings retained in the form of gold have turned in a rather dismal performance. People who are fixated in the pursuit of the almighty dollar measure progress as the rate of dollar accumulation. They observe the holding of both fiat savings (with their reduced rate of return) and gold as liabilities upon their progress. Well what do expect from an item that has true lasting value. The "cost" of holding savings in general and gold in particular is "dear" and not only unjustifiable but unfathomable to those who see through fiat eyes. Much like fiat cash, gold does not create more of itself just sitting there. Unlike fiat cash, it does not dissipate in value by credit expansion (printing of more paper just like it). However, like fiat currencies awash in the ebb and flow of global distribution, the fiat based "price" of gold is subject to political influence. Why? Because it is money...pure and simple.From the "gold has hidden strength yet to be revealed" perspective, gold is more properly viewed as an asset rather than a liability. It's "price" in fiat terms is less "dear" now than it has been in the past. I am reminded of the immortal words of some brilliant investor sage..."Buy low, sell high".If one considers wealth to be the accumulation of unencumbered assets of enduring value, then the pursuit of fiat profit to be converted to real wealth makes sense. One does this by reducing all debt to zero and then accumulating wealth from a position of strength. At that point, it makes no difference whether one accumulates the wealth slowly or quickly as long as the accumulation grows or stands firm. The accumulation of credit (increasing the rate of fiat inflow) for the purpose of supporting a much larger and ever increasing debt does not. Affluence is the ability to recycle fiat efficiently. Wealth is having the means not to have to be affluent. Wealth is freedom, Affluence is slavery.The risk of being affluent, when the financial world is in turmoil is unjustifiable...nay...unfathomable to those in the "gold has hidden value yet to be revealed in fiat terms" camp. The "cost" of a historically inevitable collapse will be "dear" in fiat terms. The introduction of the next fiat regime capable of sustaining a credible "reserve" status is crucial to the avoidance of total collapse. It must necessarily advance slowly an methodically to this new status. Unfortunately, the new "reserve" capable fiat unit has arrived on the scene a bit late to avoid major upheavals. There is hope however that it is not to late to avoid a total collapse. Black Blade (08/26/00; 04:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35546) An Insider's Perspective http://www.thebullandbear.com/resource/index1.html Do the World Oil Producers Really Have the Capacity for Long-Term Increased Production?by Dick Wiese, PresidentTexas Western ReservesIn the early 1970's oil prices were pushed up because OPEC could control 36% of the World's needs. A fresh flow of oil from Alaska and North Sea production caused prices to drop. The next crunch was of long duration caused by International political agreements to keep production in line with growing consumption.Experts at different times have predicted that crude oil could be plentiful for 40 - 60 years. This assumes the world's proved reserves estimate is correct and that world consumption would not increase. Some now believe we are only a few years away from peak world production. When this is reached, the world's production capacity will, for the first time, begin a slow decline. World consumption is growing at record levels, along with the beginning decline of global production capacity, which can only mean future higher world prices.Most often companies or countries exaggerate the estimates of the reserves they control or own. Export quotas are often set by a percentage of total reserves claimed. Few major discoveries or other breakthroughs justify the unprecedented growth of estimated oil reserves. It could be reasonable to assume that world consumption is three times the amount of new discoveries which peaked in the 1960's. There was only so much oil placed in this earth, and many believe world exploration has discovered about 90% of this total. Some countries cannot think of increased production in the face of their own supply depletion.Norway, the world's second largest producer, has not closed a single well by government order. They support production curbs and higher prices as their old giant fields' production fall, despite every effort to stabilize.Mexico's internal audit in 1999 fell from 49 billion barrels to 28 billion barrels. It now appears this country's production will soon begin to decline.Venezuela's officials now speak quietly of reduced production capacity.China's hope of being an oil exporter has faded. China's deficit between production and consumption by 2005 is expected to be 2 million barrels per day.Prudhoe Bay, along with other area sin Alaska, has excellent oil reserves. Reserves mean nothing when emotional drilling restrictions keep the Alaska Pipeline only 1/2 full.Americans have strong desires and habits that make it a good market for world crude oil. About 58% of oil consumed in the U.S. is imported. This number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas this week rose by 22 to 893. The total a year ago was 563, far below the record of 4,530 on December 28, 1981. Average U.S. Oil PricePer Barrell: 1970-1999 1970 3.28 1985 26.80 1971 3.48 1986 14.73 1972 3.48 1987 17.55 1973 3.98 1988 14.71 1974 6.95 1989 17.81 1975 7.64 1990 22.37 1976 8.59 1991 19.04 1977 8.78 1992 18.32 1978 9.29 1993 16.19 1979 12.65 1994 14.98 1980 21.84 1995 16.38 1981 35.06 1996 20.31 1982 31.77 1997 18.86 1983 29.35 1998 12.31 1984 28.87 1999 16.56 Average U.S. Gasoline PricePer Gallon: 1970-1999 1970 0.36 1985 1.20 1971 0.36 1986 0.93 1972 0.36 1987 0.95 1973 0.39 1988 0.95 1974 0.53 1989 1.02 1975 0.57 1990 1.16 1976 0.61 1991 1.14 1977 0.66 1992 1.13 1978 0.67 1993 1.11 1979 0.90 1994 1.11 1980 1.25 1995 1.15 1981 1.38 1996 1.23 1982 1.30 1997 1.23 1983 1.24 1998 1.06 1984 1.21 1999 1.16 Could it be that OPEC and other oil producing countries can seek their peak production coming and see no need to speed up the timetable by opening the valves for that very important commodity, crude oil. U.S. Energy policies, or the lack of them, fill the Editorial pages on a timely basis. Even the New York Times took the Federal Government to task over energy policies in an Editorial. "Unless Washington stops focusing on the prices at the gas pump and starts looking at the prices and dependency just over the horizon, the United States will be in deep trouble again." This appeared on December 29, 1986. It is clear the U.S. has no Energy Policy. Everyone is in the Energy Business, either as a consumer or a producer. It depends on which side of the pump or end of the pipeline your ownership is located. Does all of this information present an Energy crises or an Energy opportunity for American investors? It is out there wells need to be reentered, deepened, or drilled. Capital from the private sector is needed. America is one of only a few countries that allows individuals to own part or all of Oil and Natural Gas wells. I suggest partnerships between strong, good domestic independent oil and gas companies, and the American Investor will be profitable and will be part of the Energy Solution.Editor's Note: Dick Wiese is President of Texas Western Reserves, 7716 Ironstone Trail, Fort Worth, TX 76179, 800-460-3489, E-mail: twr1@flash.net, or visit the Web site at: www.texaswesternreserves.com.Black Blade: To the point! Black Blade (08/26/00; 04:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35545) Energy Crisis, Inflation, Recession, POG and POO = All Part of The "Big-Picture" http://www.worldoil.com/WO_RESEARCH/Research/whitepaper.pdf The link to the "Energy White Paper" provided by Henri shows a rather close parallel to the developing petroleum crisis. Well worth a read, though a bit long. So far the M. King Hubbert model has been quite accurate in its timing in regard to US peak production in 1970, and world peak production in 1999. the "Super-Giant Fields" appear to have been discovered and exploited. Now smaller and more costly fields are been exploited. These costs will show up in finished goods and and services. Companies can only absorb these costs and narrow their profit margins for so long until they must be passed along to the consumer resulting in inflation. Natural gas storage is also going to be under severe pressure as current NG storage is far below last years levels. The costs for NG-generated energy have more than tripled and therefore must eventually show up at the retail level. Again, resulting in increased costs - inflation. All this contributing to a likely recession and a sharply rising POG. "Big-Picture?", yes. But inevitable. Another good read on the coming oil crisis:http://dieoff.org/page90.htm The general consensus of my colleagues in the petroleum and mining industry all concur that there is a serious problem developing in regard to energy and the effect on rising costs, and the resultant increases in the price of PMs. There really isn't anyway around it short of a miracle or some fantastic breakthrough in renewable energy. - Black Blade JMB (08/26/00; 01:02:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35544) ARISTOTLE I give up. My question wasn't realistic anyway...it was just an effort to discuss an economic theory I've been mulling over for some time. All systems will break down because humans always go to excess...it's part of our nature. The breakdown should not be feared...it should be anticipated. For those who successfully anticipate and prepare for an economic breakdown, gold should be made available for their benefit. Gold and freedom go hand in hand. A system that does not employ gold, is a system that is well on its way to tyranny. Gold is no guarantee, it's part of a plan. It would be foolish to put our faith and trust in an inanimate object. Take the "L" out of gold and you'll find who we should put our faith and trust in. Good night Sir. Aristotle (08/26/00; 00:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35543) Mr. JMB, I'm willing to try if you are Please answer this question to your own satisfaction:"Why has the dollar generally lost purchasing power from 1972 onward?" (I specify 1972 to make this extra simple, but actually could have gone back much farther in time.)Now that you've framed a reason that satisfies you, please evaluate how it is that these SAME forces might be and have been at work on Gold these many years.That's it, in a nutshell.Gold. The clock is ticking to a new reality. ---Aristotle RossL (08/26/00; 00:05:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35542) SDR equivalent in € / ¥ / $ / £ http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm The chart: the £ takes a dive this week while the ¥ strengthens. Another old coin is on the feature centerpiece. JMB (08/26/00; 00:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35541) ARISTOTLE Your #35531 started, "Here you will find my answer to your latest, JMB". Which was, "Why should goods be priced in dollars or pounds or whatever? Why not price goods in terms of gold?" I've tried, I've really-really tried. The full impact of "trying to find a needle in a hay stack" has pooped me out. Was this exercise, which I enjoyed because I appreciate the importance of economic history, a form of punishment for my transgressions? If so, I've paid, I've really-really paid. IT'S FRIDAY NIGHT ARISTOTLE.The closest I came to any of you gentlemen touching on my question was ORO's "The Perfect Monetary System"...points 1 & 2 of 10 total...#1. No central bank. #2. No national currency at all. It's certainly possible that I overlooked the "needle", or did you stick it in me? ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.