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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/26/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

$5 Indian (4/26/2000; 23:20:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 29407)
SWC
SWC seems to have done the "Acapulco Cliff Dive" pattern from 40 meters. Have to wonder how deep the water is there. So on a speculation. Take the price of Paladium and Platinum of late Nov.'99 compared to now and figure what changes in production warrant the total retracement from this whole Dec to March mountain? I think it was margin call fodder. They threw over the brass cannon to lighten the ship, and they'll go back for it when they want to. From $40 to $27 for what. Well it was never worth more than that, BUT these "other sources" of PGM's ? Stillwater is the only oasis and the rest is the mirage. Still prone to down gaps I think. Anything in this market going sideways is really going down unless we know it's in accumulation (many doji spikes all shadows down with white candles arriving before breakout). No doji spikes then no accumulation.

Black Blade (4/26/2000; 22:28:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29406)
Addition to Previous Post
Oh, yeah - those poor folks who had to scramble to cover at $775+/ounce, well they were playing a game of musical chairs with a few others, however, when the music stopped - They were the ones left standing. There simply aren't enough PGMs available - at least not from any willing sellers. They had to pay the price. Apparrently they weren't big players or they would have declared "force majuere" and settled in cash (then again maybe they did!). The point is, in the paper market - options, etc., it is a fools game! The market is rigged. Watch as expiry approaches and those "in the money" watch their paper gains vaporize before their eyes! Either that, or if and when the markets fly high - Default ala TOCOM-Style.

Black Blade (4/26/2000; 22:10:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 29405)
RossL - Platinum.
These are good questions, and good ole Ted Butler would be just the one to stir up this hornets nest. For the last few months we have heard the same old tired song - "The Russians are coming, The Russians are coming", but alas, no Russians. Oh, they may stir up a few ounces, but I wouldn't count on any significant flood of PGMs coming our way. There are a few points to remember:

1) The Japanese already defaulted on Paladium. There isn't enough to fill the demand for delivery to those holding contracts and also to please their masters who would have to pay out to the others holding Pd contracts. In other words, they had to kill the market and save their collective a**es by stealing from those who took the risks of investing in those contracts.

2) The official sources of PGMs such as the national strategic reserve recalled their Platinum from the US Mint a couple of months ago. No explanation was given, but you can draw your own conclusions.

3) The major source of PGMs in Russia is by-product from Norilsk Nickel. For one thing, this is one of the most inefficient mining operations in the third world (yes Russia is now part opf the third world!). The miners are EXTREMELY lucky if they get paid - and usually they take production (in all Russian Industries) and use it for barter just to survive from day to day. Not to mention, Russia has one of the most corrupt governments on the face of this planet! Even the Russian Mafia is a more honest organization, at least with them you expect graft, criminality, and corruption.

4) The demand for PGMs is now higher than present production (and has been for at least over the last 4 years). Several producers are not going to be able to provide significant increases for some time. Amplats of S.Africa is in dispute over it's land position with the government. Zimplat of Zimbabwe is in serious trouble because of the situation there. Stillwater is behind schedule with the development of the East Boulder project, slated to increase production three-fold. and North American Platinum's mine is just about played out.

Other than that there isn't a problem, right :-) OK, so the PGM markets are rigged. We already knew that. Physical is safest, mining equities are next, and anything else is ....... Damn, I knew I forgot to buy TP at the store today!

ThaiGold (4/26/2000; 21:54:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29404)
Wednesday's PATSY Index
Flites to SafeHaven... Any port in a storm.
===========================================================
...
...
...
Wednesday's PATSY Report
4-26-2000
To: ALL

The nightly PATSY Index shows the relative
amount that GoldBugs have been conipulated.

XAU=55.47 + POG=274.80 + POS=4.98
-equals-
335.25
Down -1.80 from Tuesday. Another Slam-Dunk.

Comment: The trend continues. (In Newmont NEM/nyse shares.)
They had another nice gain today. Perhaps it's investors,
seeking a safe haven. From physical metals.

Prediction: More (or less) of the same.

ThaiGold...
Got Some.?. ... Get Some.!.
===========================================================


$5 Indian (4/26/2000; 21:47:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29403)
(off topic)
Does anyone know what happened to (symbol): SWC ? The question of Russia shipping white metals could be a question of where did they find more slaves to work the mines?

$5 Indian (4/26/2000; 21:19:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29402)
CB2
http://www.radiowallstreet.com
CoBra2 please don't leave us gold brother. We need your unique perspective on matters of gold, and you're our only agent in Euroland. I always enjoyed your criticism and insights. It was fun to try to figure out what the German words meant, adds a little something to reach for. Feel free to write some stuff in German as we need to be more culturally awake, throw in an English word once in awhile to throw us off a little. Best Regards, $5 Indian

============================================================

That link above is to Technical Analysis with Bob Brogan, says dollar is ready for a sharp break and bullion should rally. Once the indexes break below their 50 and 200 day moving averages then fund managers start cleaning house and start dumping massive quantities of sticks. As the market deteriorates we will see the downgrading of corporate bonds and the rout would intensify. I didn't feel so sorry for others as before what I saw didn't look so totally negative. Now as so many people are waiting for it all to go back up, I can see the repreive rally failing and buying momentum is drying up. Yes I feel sorry for people but then these are the same people laughing at the gold wisdom and mocking your golden advice. They refuse to sellout at any level. Who else has family members who snap back about "diversification" like it's meaningful when it all goes down together. I gave up trying to convince family about gold. All they ever do is complain about the loss on three ounces they bought on my advice in '95. "Wealth has wings and can fly away" we might just see that happen. But then that bird has to land somewhere too! Maybe we wonder how low can gold go? Well it always drifts down as the dollar rises. Dollar is way up and is sustained by foreign inflows into equities. The reprieve rally of the Naz and Dow is thin and withering with less "belief buying". Belief is not there. People don't know why they are buying back in. I think this afternoon's selling would carry over to tomarrow morning and only certain sticks are going to bounce off resistance bands, the rest is crashing through and we can watch the dollar "hold or break". That last good spike was a short covering panic and the corelation of the stock market to the POG is still not linked so close.

Gold Bull Summary: Factors

1. Fed tightening of money supply can crash the equities which would probably drag down the dollar too

2. Silver may lead gold, people who know say it's ready to go

3. Bank of Japan cannot support the dollar indefinitely

4. Monthly trade deficit figures have no offset with a tanking market, lessening of foreign inflows

5. Inflation is real and hidden behind false numbers

6. Money coming out of equities and bonds is looking for safety

7. Panic has yet to arrive, imagine how markets will act when it does arrive, these markets tanked while the dollar was very strong and with no bad news at all. What be their fall when dollar turns weak?

8. I'm sure others can add many more.........overall short position in gold.........overextension of margin and leverage.

pdeep (4/26/2000; 21:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 29401)
Singin' the .com Blues
http://www.nymag.com/page.cfm?page_id=2978
"At Esther Dyson's PC Forum last month, coincident with the top of the NASDAQ, one of my former venture-capital investors passed out T-shirts with the legend NOT ALL INTERNET PEOPLE ARE ASSHOLES. What did it mean, if he, a demonstrable asshole, thought everyone else was an asshole? It was a
perfect moment of self-loathing."

I apologize for the crude quote, but the article is quite revealing in its entirety.

Leigh (4/26/2000; 20:17:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29400)
CoBra, Journeyman
Dear CoBra: You HAVE to keep in touch while we are undergoing hyperinflation and you're sitting easy over there in Euroland. We'll be scrounging for food, and you can remind us about the delights of chocolate torte and other delicacies. Actually, I'm not kidding -- it will be interesting to hear your perspective as FOA's scenario unfolds.

Journeyman: Thank you so much for your explanations about hyperinflation. This is TERRIFYING! I want to go out and warn everyone I know, but of course nobody would EVER believe it.

Golden Calf (4/26/2000; 20:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29399)
Replying to Rhody's question
Rhody...

"Why did the US government try to hide the withdrawal by
classifying it as an "export"? (Adding a bogus $1 billion
gold export to the trade figures only subtracts 3% from the trade deficit totals.)
Comments would be most appreciated."

IMO, the feds are trying to control, as best they can, the markets for
political purposes, as well as other reasons. Watching the behvior of
the markets, and their timing, important, and should become clearer
as time passes.

What better way than to let the markets slide now, gold go up a few
insignificant notches, and them lower the boom and let the markets
fly one last time towards election period, before removing their hands
from the controls.

Please look at the chart in this article.....
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/droke042700.html
Breaking now, and then letting 'em rip up again when required......interesting?
Gold can go up into the low $300 ranges, and stay within a long term accumulating
pattern, satisfying those, that are doing the accumulating.....and they sure are!!


Cavan Man (4/26/2000; 20:03:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29398)
2CB2
Let me add my voice to the others; my friend, where have you been? It's just beginning to get interesting!

Your posts are some of the best on this, the BEST gold forum.

Reconsider would'ya?

Farfel (4/26/2000; 19:36:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 29397)
The Oracle of KITCO Speaks and All Goldbugs Tremble in Fear
Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 20:56
APH (Trading - Gold) ID#7223:
"Its always Darkest before the Dawn" or so they say, it may be true this time. Gold looks sick and going to get a
little sicker. I doubt if 272 is going to hold. Based on monthly charts it looks like we are going to test and exceed
the monthly lows at 250. But from there should come a new dawn. The best possilbe out come is a spike low
ending between 250 - 245. Once the market is in that range I'm looking for a violent reversal back up. This could
happen as soon as tomorrow. Keep your power dry, have no fear, pull the trigger on any quick moves under 250.

------------------

Interesting fellow, Mr. APH. Hardly ever a personal word from the guy, just daily dry projections, some true, some not.

He often comes off sounding like a computer program, maybe coming from the Goldman Sachs backroom??? :>)

I have no animosity to the man because I have no concept of who or what he is.

He could be right although most technicians have had a rough time calling significant breaks in this market.

In any case, no doubt the goldbugs of KITCO are trembling in fear of their guru's latest. If he is right, then most of the gold producers in North America will be bankrupted shortly, not to mention many of the gold producers all around the world.

Get ready to paper your walls with worthless gold shares.

Thanks

F*

SteveH (4/26/2000; 19:27:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29396)
Disinformation?
www.kitco.com
repost:

WRAPUP-Analyst sees gold languishing below $300 in 2000

By Sara Marani


LONDON, April 26 ( Reuters ) - Gold prices will remain stuck below $300 an ounce for the foreseeable future, helping boost demand, industry analyst Gold Fields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) said on Wednesday.

``As long as prices remain below $300, there will be firm demand for gold,'' GFMS Director Paul Walker told a news conference to present its annual report.

In its Gold Survey 2000, GFMS said physical buyers would continue to be attracted at prices under $300 an ounce.

Coupled with continued Asian economic recovery and world GDP growth of around 4.2 percent, the lower price should encourage an environment of robust physical gold demand this year.

Last year, world gold demand dipped to 4,092 tonnes, down from 4,106 tonnes in 1998.

PRICE SEEN STUCK BELOW $300

In the report, GFMS warned that bullion's upside would continue to be constrained if inflation stayed at relatively low levels and there was no major decline in the value of the U.S. dollar.

``The price will continue to be constrained on the upside unless there is a significant shift in investor attitudes to gold, and inflation appears unlikely to lend a helping hand,'' the report said.

It pointed to a lack of genuine investor demand, as opposed to short-covering, as one key reason why gold prices above $300 had been unsustainable -- and why that could continue to be the case.

``This lack of investor interest was manifest again recently when gold barely reacted to record declines in equity prices,'' GFMS said.

Earlier this month, a 13 percent fall on the NASDAQ index sparked an exodus away from shares, with some investors parking their money in gold -- but only for a matter of hours.

While spot bullion prices did gain $11, or nearly four percent, they still struggled to get close to $300 an ounce, peaking at $291.50 in New York.

OFFICIAL SECTOR MOVES PRICE

The report pointed to the official sector as a key influence on last year's bullion price. Central banks sold a net 420 tonnes of gold last year and official lending rose by 375 tonnes.

Gold shot to two-year highs in the $320s in October last year after 15 European central banks pledged in Washington in September to limit gold sales, lending and derivatives activity.

It again broke through $300 in February, driven by producers indicating they were reducing their hedging programmes, a practice adopted by most producers to sell future output forward to lock in higher prices.

GFMS said that as a result of the change in attitude, outstanding positions had declined sharply in the fourth quarter of 1999 and probably continued to fall in the first quarter of this year.

Managing Director Philip Klapwijk said official central bank bullion sales still to come would also continue to limit the scope for higher gold prices.

``Having formalised the demonetisation process in Europe, the ( Washington ) Agreement will act as a signal to some other central banks to follow suit,'' he said.

However, Klapwijk added that lower producer hedging, to a large extent in response to shareholder pressure, ought to be positive for the price in the short term.

19:09 04-26-00


***

Comments:

Microsoft definetly seems to be in a "keep employee" mode or try to use stock options to bolster profits. Tough to do in a downward spiral, eh?

Lehman Bros anaylyst says he sees S&P at 1700 in 12 months. He doesn't see any fundamental change in the bull for the next five years. Phew!

Volatility is the only sure thing today. Friend of mine put $40K into the market last Friday at the end of the day figuring it was all going up from there. Funny because he held a penny gold stock from 1.99 to .04, sold it, then the penny stock went to .47 and was halted.

Futures are shaping up negative for the morrow.

You know how when reading a fortune cookie you say at the end of the phrase "...in bed?" Well, when we see an anaylst talk about the bull or the rising markets or oversold or about to rise, just say "...in Euros or in dollars or in gold?" When you then realize that the commentator has no concept of the Euro v Dollar v Gold war going on, how can they rightly anaylyze any of what is going on? They don't have a clue. So their advise is limited in scope and based on a house of cards they believe is entrenched in cement but is only on teflon. Phewwwwwww!!!!! Timber!!!

I heard an analyst say that inflation is low, after all look at the gold price...its not going anywhere..."in Euros or in dollars or in gold" Might as well say "...in bed" too.



HI - HAT (04/26/00; 18:59:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29395)
Trail Guide : Faces
RE: msg ID:19 Trail Guide, you write:
"The Euro system is completely braced to accept a US self induced transition of world reserve status from the dollar into Euro's".

I am reading the "self induced transition" part of this as an event like when a Roman Emporor had a dagger delivered to your house. If thats the case, after the fall happens, can you give us a little hint of what possible explanation you think the US government is going to have for this turn of events to the public?

I believe you stated previously that even most bankers don't have a clue that the house is on fire. We are going to have our faces ripped off. How are they going to be able to save face and what policies do you think they will have to institute. Much thanks for any reply.

TheStranger (04/26/00; 18:36:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29394)
The Other Shoe
The employment cost index comes out tomorrow.

At this time last year the worldwide threat of deflation had already been reversed, and price rises had begun in oil and most industrial commodities. Nonetheless (and unfortunately for those holding gold), Wall Street has managed all these months to convince a majority that productivity improvements are sufficient to contain any price increases and prevent a general inflation in America. Perhaps people chose to believe this because such rationalizations, if true, would be supportive of higher equity prices, and nobody wanted to see the party end.

Then, on April 14th, there was near panic in the markets. The "core" CPI had finally exposed the reality that rising prices had gone far beyond just oil and tobacco and were infecting products all across the economy. And so-called "headline" inflation, which everybody ignores because it includes food and energy, had now exceeded 5% annual rate for the first quarter as a whole! This was the highest inflation the United States has seen since the 1980s!

After April 14th, a brief positive reaction in gold was quickly reversed, and the stock market tried to stabilize. An attempt to reinstate the bull market has, no doubt, been constructed on the false hope that this month's CPI shock was a statistical anomaly. Don't you believe it!

Will tomorrow's employment cost index be the other shoe that finally convinces everybody? It very well may be. But, whether it is or it isn't, disinflation's days are long over now. As this year goes by, that truth will sink in, and a continued repricing of assets will be inevitable.

**********************************************************

CoBra(too) - forgive my not knowing what has prompted your departure. I very much enjoy your posts and regret I don't say so more often. I hope to see your wit and wisdom again before long, mein Freund.

aunuggets (04/26/00; 17:42:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29393)
Hill Billy Mitchel
RE: $1000 Silver "junk" bags..... Why not simply buy physical bags and save the futures commissions to buy more silver (or gold) ? Just another step in avoiding the "paper game". In this market, you can likely buy junk silver bags at slightly UNDER the spot silver content price. Just a thought......

Hill Billy Mitchell (04/26/00; 16:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29392)
Lots of nervous marketeers out there
Dow down 179
Nasdaq down 81
S & P down 16
NYSE down 4
Gold down $2.70
Oil down $ .68
T-Bond down
Dollar down
AMEX no change

A lot of money got parked somewhere today. When everything goes down, ie. no buyers of anyting the dad blame paper is converted into paper paper (cash).

All or that undecided cash is going to go long in something eventually. Maybe gold soon, no?

What think ye?

hbm

Hill Billy Mitchell (04/26/00; 16:34:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 29391)
The long and the short of it
http://www.bloomberg.com/welcome.html

unofficial:

30-year Treasury rate = 5.95%

Fed Funds rate = 6.03%

upside down spread = (.08%)


Hill Billy Mitchell (04/26/00; 16:18:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29390)
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 26, 2000

Rates for Tuesday, April 25, 2000

Federal funds 5.99

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.79
10-year 6.14
20-year 6.27
30-year 5.95

upside down spread FF vs long bond = (.04%)


Galearis (04/26/00; 16:05:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 29389)
deflated gold
Since the conversations touch on inflation new, how 'bout this. POG at $275/oz. at 7% inflation in 1999 dollars is $255.25.

Would one believe the BIS is annoyed?

Hill Billy Mitchell (04/26/00; 16:04:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29388)
Anyone, please help! (Bag silver question?)

I have for several years bought straggling amounts of "Junk Silver" a.k.a. "Bag Silver" at small coin shops.
In my efforts to purchase precious metals at the lowest possible cost I am always on the lookout for not only the right stuff to buy but also the right way to buy it.

Several years ago I ran across a book with a very offensive title, "Get Really Rich in the Coming Super Metals Boom", written by Gordon McLendon. The book was in fact very informative despite the offensive title.

The following is a direct quote from the book, PP 117-118:

"Every American investment portfolio should include that number of pre-1965 U.S. silver coins which you can afford, up to 10 percent of your investment holdings….Indeed many investors buy silver coins from coin stores by the bag; generally such bags of coins have a face denomination of $1,000. Non-U.S. readers would also do well to consider holding U.S. bullion silver coins or, at the very least, the nearest thing to a bullion-type silver coin (one with the very lowest possible premium) available in their countries. Members of other nationalities can easily acquire U.S. bullion-type coins (1964 and earlier by buying the nearest month U.S. futures in $1,000 denominated bags of these coins and then taking delivery."

This book has a copyright of 1980,1981. I first read the book in the early 1990's. Since that time I have had a hankering to purchase "bag silver" in this manner--Acquiring by purchase of a near futures contract and then taking delivery. Problem is I have not been able to discover where to go to buy a futures contract in "bag silver". Help! Can it be done? Was it done at one time but is no longer sold in the form of a futures contract? Give me a number to call. I would be glad to set up an account with a broker who handles these specific contracts. Surely this would be an option for some of us.

Thanks in advance.

bmb


HI - HAT (04/26/00; 15:58:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 29387)
CoBra (too)
Snap out of it. Do continue to post. Your posts are valuable and appreciated. Being on-site in Euroland strengthens our tapestry.

SHIFTY (04/26/00; 15:56:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29386)
PONZI
Nasdaq 3,630.09 + Dow 10,945.5 = 14,575.59 Devide by 2 = PONZI 7287.79 down 130.23 ponzi points

CoBra(too) (04/26/00; 14:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29385)
Gold - The US $ and the Euro...
Forgive me to post again - a treat I did not want to undergo again - though rest assured it will be my absolute last post on any forum! ...
... while I'm not underwriting the Cabal - id est PPT - it is becoming more clear with the day, that an outside, sorry, i n s i d e force is now working overtime to curb any problems in any markets with the force of the - printing press.
... The Qu. is what force is keeping this farce alive? ... Is it the Press or the Pres' working team on financial mkts. ... in the aftermath of scary Oct. 87, when SEC, FTC and free and fair markets have been abandoned in order to save the seignorage of the US$, or save the (un-savvy) pre-eminence of Wall Street's (and some others) Investment Banks or is it Gangs? ...
Or is it valuations re paper $'s, Euro's or derivatives ... paper valuations not standing up to any accounting standards ... when tomorrow comes ... and tomorrow may have arrived ... (ac)count your gold ... Take Care -CB2



R Powell (04/26/00; 14:51:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29384)
Mr. Elwood
Thanks for the gold exports chart. Good work! Now we can speculate on what names you'll be using when you know what's to replace the question marks on the recent peaks.

RossL (4/26/2000; 13:53:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29383)
Spot Platinum, Palladium

The spot price on platinum continues to be reported as being below $450. The WSJ repeated a rumor that Russian platinum would hit the market soon.

Why would NYMEX platinum traders bid the April contract up to $775 if there was spot platinum available for $450?

Why are the Japanese still trading a palladium contract when palladium is not required for delivery?


Elwood (4/26/2000; 13:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29382)
GoldTango updated
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/

Got a few emails after the first notice from folks who didn't have Excel. I webbed the chart now. No more messy Excel files. See for yourself how net gold exports increase before and during times of financial uncertainty. One of those times is just around the corner.

Fed data next if I can find a source.

Journeyman (4/26/2000; 13:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29381)
Hyperinflation & wages @Leigh msg#: 29365

"What happens to wages during a hyperinflation? Will they go up in proportion to prices?" -Leigh

Eventually workers' wages more or less catch up, if their job isn't discreated by the economic collapse that normally accompanies hyperinflation. But this is a big "EVENTUALLY." Wage increases lag price increases by a long period. The problem is that the wages are usually locked-in by contracts because the agreed-to compensation is denominated in domestic currency units whose numbers, if not their value, remains the same throughout the life of the contract. The fact that lagging wages thus buy less causes businesses to be able to sell less, which causes business contraction, often called "deflation." Thus, paradoxically, hyperinflation causes "deflation." Thus businesses are squeezed by loss of volume and thus profit, making it difficult for workers to negotiate increases even if their contracts do come up for renewal. When it comes to hyperinflation, the wage earner comes in next to last. The only ones worse off are retirees. -J.

Prices of things imported or things including imported components rise the quickest and the most. This is because they are manufactured in countries which don't have the trade "advantage" of devaluation of their currency enabling lower prices. That is, the prices of imports in the devaluing country, because of the devalued (hyperinflated) currency, is now higher. This cuts imports into the devaluing (hyperinflating) country. Thus businesses and jobs that depend directly on imports shrink the fastest and lose the most money and jobs. -J.

At the same time, devaluation increases exports FROM the devaluing country, since it's products, produced relatively more cheaply from the viewpoint of buyers in other countries which now have "strong" currencies because of the devaluation, are cheaper. Thus businesses and jobs which depend on exports are hurt the least during a hyperinflation, although wages probably still won't rise any faster. -J.

"Will workers be willing to work for their old salaries just to have a job?" -Leigh

That's up to them, but usually they don't have any other option. -J.

"If wages do go up, where will all the money come from? Will our government continue to print in ever-increasing amounts? Where will it end?" -Leigh

In a hyperinflation, the money was already created, it's just that it gets to the wage-earner last. There's never a shortage of money in a hyperinflation. By definition it is caused by the opposite problem, too much money. -J.

I have the utmost confidence, based on centuries of historical precedent, that "our" government, in cahoots with the Federal Reserve, will print up PLENTY of money, yes, in ever-increasing amounts. Why not? They already have! -J.

Where where it all end? How about a quote from CNBC:

"As we pointed out earlier the rupiah is down 84%
since July losing that much of its value against
the dollar. There aren't that many percentages
left. Can a currency go to effectively zero
against another currency?" -Ron Insanna
+
"Well, you've had of course, in Latin America and
many other parts of the world -- go back to the
1920s in Germany -- periods of hyper-inflation. So
failure to manage a currency can lead to a new
currency eventually." [i.e. the old currency
becomes worthless -J.] -Kim Schoenholtz, Solomon
Smith Barney, CNBC Inside Opinion, 22 Jan, 1998.

Regards,
Journeyman


beesting (4/26/2000; 12:14:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29380)
Thinking Out Loud........Close your eyes if not interested.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=3m
At this hour all the U.S. equities markets are on a downward trend. WHY??
Well could it be the Japanese, holders of huge amounts of U.S. debt, are no longer followers in the ebb and flow of world equity markets, but because of the huge amount of U.S. paper dollars they hold are now playing the game of follow the leader, as the LEADER.

Consider this:
Last night their NIKKEI-225 market had a down day of 138.02 after an up day in U.S. equity markets.
In the recent past, most action in Japanese equities(up or down) followed the exact same pattern as Wall Street.
Today Wall Street is down, following the early morning(In the U.S.) action of the NIKKEI-225, and that's not all.

Yesterday on the NIKKEI-225 a new yearly low was attained...17948.36. In April alone the NIKKEI-225 has lost 2884.85 points!! Despite publicized Government intervention...Click URL above.
Now some of this loss may be attributed to a change of leadership in Japan, new Prime Minister...Who Knows!!

Anyway, if the ballast of the Japanese economy anchored by U.S. dollars, is slowly being,"lost at sea",might that not drag the whole ship beneath the waves, including the USS U.S.?
We all watch together....beesting.


TownCrier (4/26/2000; 12:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 29379)
Walking the circle...A review of weekend posts and a vital reiteration of paper contract "gold" vs. real gold.
Sir lamprey_65's comment was surely brought on by the Friday evening post from The Tower (which we will revisit shortly). Sir lampry_65 offered the following, [which I have modified to reflect Sir Asher's timely correction (4/23/2000; 13:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 29223) regarding 'put' vs. 'call' options]:
---
lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 9:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29217)
The Paper Gold Market
After thinking on this issue yesterday, I have to say that there seems to be some confusion about what is happening in the gold paper markets and what is likely to happen in the future.
+
As manipulated as the paper markets are, they CANNOT go to zero...in reality, they can't even go too far below where alternative distribution sources are priced or where demand in general becomes too great. Why not? It's called a call option. Call options give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy the lot at a set price. So, for instance, if COMEX prices fell to $249.50, a June 250 call would be "in the money" and Goldman Sachs would STILL have to ante up the gold.
+
[Sir lamprey continued in (4/23/2000; 13:55:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29224)] Peter Asher, Very true...a written put gives the OBLIGATION to purchase physical at the price of the contract and a put purchased (long put) allows the RIGHT to sell physical. My fault for switching to two in my example, but the end result is the same....
+
Paper prices too far below true supply and demand will bring about a storm of written puts sold...and therefore physical gold still changes hands.
---

Next, we turn to offer thanks to Sir Elwood, for his timely and vital input to the discussion offered above regarding the true nature of Put and Call Options as offered by COMEX. He said...
---
Elwood (4/23/2000; 14:30:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29225)
Puts and Calls on commodity futures are rights and obligations to enter futures contracts. That is, if I buy a put I have the right, but not the obligation, to enter into a futures contract to sell.
+
If the futures have been "force majeured" into cash settlement then I will be relieved of my obligation to deliver physical and can settle with cash paper.
+
Calls deal with the buy side. If I purchase a call then I have the right, but not the obligation, to enter into a futures contract to buy at the strike price. Again, if the market has gone to cash settlement then I will be unable to call for physical delivery.
---

Now that everyone should be on the same page regarding Options being nothing more than a derivative of a derivative...one whose function is akin to putting a no-obligation downpayment on some futures contracts that may or may not be acquired in-full at some time prior to their expiration...which is always at least half a month prior to the First Notice Day in which these underlying futures contracts could be held up for delivery. Fundamentally, there is little difference to the end pricing mechanism (that I have explained Friday (and as excerpted below)) between contract longs getting into their contract positions via outright purchases of those positions, or via exercising a call option to enter those same positions. Though arguably, the option route puts LESS immediate upward (demand) pressure on the contract price, and acutally may result in a price depression as the new contract owner would seek to sell while it was still "in the money." (Obviously, if it were not in the money, the entity would not have exercised his Option to acquire the Contract at the price guaranteed by the Option.)

Having set the stage, I return now to some excerpts of the Friday evening post that provides the flavor of the pricing dynamic brought about by these paper contracts (gold derivatives) as available through COMEX. (The original post was a more in-depth reply to Sir Econoclast on the earlier news we offered that 9,900 April gold contracts have thus far received notice for delivery.)
---
TownCrier (4/21/2000; 20:10:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29151)
Sir Econoclast's questions on COMEX...and revisiting an important quote from ANOTHER's THOUGHTS!
In total there are 110,525 ounces of eligible gold and 1,856,270 ounces of registered inventory on the books of the two official COMEX gold vaults...housed at ScotiaMocatta and at Republic National Bank of New York. As you can see, the 990,000 ounces represented by delivery notices on the April contract is a figure larger than half of the COMEX inventory.

If those on the sell/short side of these 9,900 contracts that have delivery obligations are among those who have gold already registered within the COMEX system, then there would simply be a transfer of title/registration on the books. Under such a scenario, the would be no demand pressure hitting the spot market. Similarly, if these same entities have gold in a private stock, they could yield it up without pressuring spot demand. And in fact, if those on the receiving end of these deliveries are content to let COMEX remain as the guardian, then we could actually see the level of COMEX gold holdings rise as a consequence.

However, if the current COMEX gold inventory reflected only the positions of contented longs, and those who theoretically sold gold and are now faced with delivery obligations do not have gold in their private stash, then they have two options. First option, they would turn to the spot market, bringing this demand pressure to apply upon the metal to be found there. Second option, they could "pass the buck" by entering the buy side of other April contracts and calling for delivery with which they will satisfy their own obligations. This "passing of the buck" could occur many times until a seller was found that had the required gold either in the COMEX system, in their private vault, or else by turning in the end to the spot market at some point prior to the delivery deadline of April 28. Of the 9,900 contracts held up for delivery, what are the chances that the buck was passed 9,900 times to satisfy one original delivery notice for a single 100 ounce contract??? My guess is that the buck is passed to a dergee, but that in this case it would not constitute the bulk of the delivery intentions. One reason for this conclusion is that around 7,000 contracts were immediately given notice for delivery on the first possible day...March 31st.

As you can imagine, this "passing of the buck" would first put demand pressure on the April contract itself, then maybe the spot market as necessary...depending on where the gold finally came from to fill the order (COMEX inventory, private inventory, or spot). Such demand pressure on April contracts or spot markets would be acceptible, because at this point April is off the radar screen. All focus is now upon the widely reported most active futures month which is June in this case. (And as you should know by now, the spot price is mathematically derived from the most active futures month's prices.) Another reason the "passing of the buck" probably does not artificially inflate the delivery intentions and hence the apparent quantity of gold scheduled to change owners (prior to the April 28 deadline) is that the institutional players without gold but with a desire toward suppressing the price would have settled their April contracts with cash (probably with a profit?) prior to being subjected to delivery obligations on First Notice Day (March 31). Upon the arrival of this important deadline, they would have moved into the future month of June, making it the active one, and would continue to short with delivery immunity while the April delivery drama would play out behind them.

[[Here it would be most appropriate to to insert a real-world example of such 'drama' as offered in today's news by Sir RossL:
RossL (04/26/00; 05:56:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29361)
Short Squeeze in Platinum Futures
Yesterday was the last day for trading the April platinum contract. The WSJ reports that "60 to 70 contracts" were open at the start of trading, and 47 were left open for delivery at the end of the day. The shorts had to bid the April contract up $209.70 just to close out 23 or 33 contracts. WooHoo!]]

It should be clear by know that all that is necessary to cap the U.S. price of gold for those desiring to do so is to continue to sell the active month futures contracts more aggressively than anyone else can be found to buy them. Not only are they thereby immune from the possibility of being stuck with delivery obligations for gold that they couldn't provide, but their depression of this highly publicized futures price will generally diffuse any desire for the remaining April longs to seek delivery of a postion that is already apparently underwater as a cash loss. And for the same reason, the typical western investor mindset will not be putting much demand pressure on the spot market either. (Now you get a small feeling for why this latest delivery demand upon COMEX contracts seems outside the norm.)

I wonder how many of these institutions are selling the futures (and as a bonus possibly making some money as the price falls by their own effort) while at the same timie buying what little physical metal remains available or is capitulated upon the spot market by those who see no end to the fall. In this context, consider this very astute observation of ANOTHER:

"Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not better to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow!" --ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) 1/10/98

You see, ultimately it is the ability to acquire the metal itself that is important, and falling prices are a means to this end. But lest you think there is no end in sight, I assure you this process has its limits. At the ABSOLUTE worst, the system breaks down when the active futures month reaches a price of zero. But it take little awareness of REALITY to convince yourself the breakdown shall happen LONG before. For even as the typical western investor turns gold aside to seek the ownership of dot.coms on Wall Street, the rest of the world is buying whatever gold can be purchased with their own feable currencies. Sell currencies to buy dollars, use dollars to buy gold. You know see a reason why the dollar continues to look strong on the foreign exchange markets, and yet the price of real gold metal is disguised behind the mask of futures selling...the selling of just one form of paper gold derivative. At some point the last available golden chip is taken from the market table, and only the payment of higher premiums above the artificially determined spot price will get you the gold you seek. This would be the separation of the paper and physical market prices that has been discussed here in the past.
---

Because we started with Sir lamprey_65, we will wrap up with him in his reply to Sir Elwood, thus completing our circle...
---
lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 20:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29250)
Elwood, Yes, I understand what you are saying, but neither this site nor Kitco is supposed to be a site dedicated to gold stocks or gold options. Both sites revolve around physical gold since both site owners are dealers. This is what perplexes me even more...why people are venting their frustration with paper investments here in the first place...it's almost like they are not even reading what is being written!
---
Indeed! And it is not that anyone should be expected to read and absorb this written information at face value. The turn in their satisfaction and investment strategy will arrive when they begin to THINK upon these matters in order to reach their own personal conclusions and understanding.

My apologies for the length of this, but there was much important ground to cover...again.

agbull (4/26/2000; 12:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29378)
Leigh -Hyperinflation
http://www.eldoradogold.net/content/eirlarouche.htm
This link should give you some reference for hyperinflation. Remember the 1913 US "dollar" has lost 93% of it's value according to the Federal Reserve Board itself.

Interesting if we use that number to find today's currency price ( read Federal Reserve Note) it is
1. Gold $20/.07= $285.71 about today's quote

2. Silver $1/.07 = $$14.29 about triple today's quote

Remember in 1913 twenty silver dollars bought a twenty dollar gold piece.

Where will it end, easy to forcast- when enough people learn the truth.. It does not have to be a majority!

When? That is the question..

Richard640 (4/26/2000; 12:01:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29377)
A bearish genius among us--take heart
Mutual fund inflows for the week ended last Wednesday were $6 billion. Any redemptions have been papered over by new contributions. The public never sold. Fear was never truly present in a magnitude that would cause action (selling). Investor sentiment readings remain uncharacteristically high for the damage that has been inflicted in the markets. Reflex or snapback rallies are to be expected in this type of market. The reflex moves can be vicious. The NDX 100 was up close to 10% in the first half hour of trading yesterday. Is this long term investing? Of course not. This is action of the manic crowd. The next true bear market in this country will only be completed when accompanied by public fear. Fear of principal loss. Fear of capital risk. The absence of greed. On these counts, we haven't even begun. Notice how the Microsoft news was so quickly forgotten in the tech stocks today? Enough said.-----------------------he whole Magilla can be found at--http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm----------4/25-Too Much Monkey Business?...The Fed conducted a number of "operations" that shot about $15 billion of total juice into the main artery of the financial markets today. That follows a little $28 billion term repo late last week. These are staggering numbers. Staggering. Does all of this dough find its way into stocks? Not exactly, but it does provide a certain boost to the liquidity of the overall financial system (and that's what counts). Why is this happening in large numbers and in such short proximity? We wish we had the answers. On second thought, maybe we really don't want to know. Raising interest rates and injecting liquidity. Raising interest rates and buying back Treasury bonds. It truly is different this time.



beesting (4/26/2000; 11:36:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29376)
Henri # 29375
Good Point!!!...beesting.

Henri (4/26/2000; 11:22:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29375)
Beesting
The US has a bad habit of freezing and sometimes confiscating the assets of countries we don't agree with at the behest of congress. If you had a pile of gold in NYC for safekeeping and were about to pull the rug out from under the US$ you could be certain that some US voters are going to have a bit of a problem with that move and want some retribution.

I wouldn't trust my pile of gold to the whims of the US citizen...would you?

beesting (4/26/2000; 10:59:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29374)
Rhody #29359 04/26/00 04:51 A.M. (Good Post.)<U.S. Gold Exports>
Part of your post:
<<Why are these foreign CB's demonstrating such a dramatic lack of confidance in the Federal Reserve Bank? Comments would be much appreciated.>>

My comment:
In my humble opinion it's only good business, no matter what your business is, to buy or accumulate your inventory as cheaply as possible In this case Gold. This action by Gold buyers(CB's???)clearly shows the big players are cashing in paper wealth for real wealth(Gold).In the case of CB's their business is the storage and distribution of wealth on a national ,and sometimes international level.They are the financial experts of the world, and share with each other inside information unavailable to the public.
This action behind the scenes(Large amounts of Gold changing hands) in the world Gold market seems to reinforce the on going writings of ANOTHER/FOA/and Trail Guide.
The phrase,"In the Footsteps of Giants", to me means, follow the big players who are building long term wealth, for yourself and your family, buy real Gold at cheap prices while they last.
Also, isn't it the leasing action by the CB's that is causing the "spot" price of Gold to stay low? What better way to accumulate inventory at a cheap price.

In jcolejr114 post on Kitco Apr 24 19:19 he stated Switzerland is the largest importer of U.S. Gold over the last 6 months. Aren't the Swiss bankers known as "The gnomes of Zurich?"
From Websters:
Gnome...A subterranean often deformed dwarf of folklaw who guards precious ore or treasure.
Thanks for reading....Those in the Know....buy Gold....beesting.



Gandalf the White (4/26/2000; 10:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29373)
UP FLAG on the XAU !
The Hobbits are seeing the formation of an UP FLAG on the XAU being formed RIGHT NOW ! THIS is the confirming one that all Goldhearts have been awaiting. Get your last bargin physical Gold now, or just watch as things go bonkers.
<;-)

Farfel (4/26/2000; 10:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29372)
TWO trading days left until Nasdaq Lockup Expiration!
According to the Wall Street Journal, beginning in May, approximately $150 billion of locked-up Nasdaq stock will be allowed to be sold. Incredible!

That compares to only $45 billion in April (and look what market disasters occurred this past month).

MAY is shaping up to be a huge crisis in the stock markets as funds inflows do not begin to compare to expected stock sales by insiders this coming month.

Thanks

F*

Farfel (4/26/2000; 10:19:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29371)
TWO trading days left until Nasdaq Lockup Expiration!
According to the Wall Street Journal, beginning in May, approximately $150 billion of locked-up Nasdaq stock will be allowed to be sold. Incredible!

That compares to only $45 billion in April (and look what market disasters occurred this past month).

MAY is shaping up to be a huge crisis in the stock markets as funds inflows do not begin to compare to expected stock sales by insiders this coming month.

Knallgold (4/26/2000; 10:19:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 29370)
Free Gold, @Trail Guide
"Now you know what "Another" has know for some time. Now you know why gold is and must rise far, far higher than
anyone expects or predicts. Now you know why our paper gold contract market is about to fail as a "freegold" physical
market takes over. Gold in the many, many thousands is in our future as the transition to Euro reserve status is set to begin."

Sir, may I ask you a question: you write a lot about the "free Gold" topic,but what tells me this isn't just a dream of goldbugs,an early concept at most? Or(o) is the project in "mature" stadium? If the latter is closer to the truth - then I will sing the song "I have all,the time, of the world..."
Thank you for all your efforts, you opened my mind in an incredible way!

Hill Billy Mitchell (4/26/2000; 9:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29369)
Correct link
http://www.bloomberg.com/welcome.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/welcome.html

Hill Billy Mitchell (4/26/2000; 9:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 29368)
The long and the short of it
http://www.bloomberg.com/welcome.hmtl
unofficial:

30-year Treasury rate = 5.91%

Fed Funds rate = 5.97%

upside down spread = (.06%)



USAGOLD (4/26/2000; 8:40:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29367)
Action in Platinum and Palladium Could Be Warm Up for Main Event in the Gold Market
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
Sorry for the errors in previous post. Here is the corrected text:

4/26/00 Indications
 Current
 Change
Gold June Comex
278.30
-1.50
Silver May Comex
5.00
-.01
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
97~13
+0~11
Dollar Index June NYBOT
108.50
-0.04

Market Report (4/26/00): Gold weakened in the early going with nothing discernible in the way
news to explain the move. Both the Asian and European markets drifted down in thin, quiet
trading and the trend carried over into the New York open. Once again gold owners were given a
glimpse as to what the future might hold for gold when platinum soared to $800 after a short
squeeze on the April contract developed on the COMEX. This situation is not end in itself but
symptomatic of much deeper problems in the precious metals as a group. The situation with
platinum will not end here. I believe there is more in store as the year unfolds. As we have said
repeatedly, the extraordinarily large derivative numbers associated with the gold carry trade, mine
hedging operations and outright options' speculation could lead to the same sort of explosive price
move if those on the long end required delivery of their metal. When contract holders demanded
delivery of their palladium on the Tokyo Exchange a couple months back, exchange officials
closed down the market. We continue to speculate that we may be approaching a similar watershed
in the gold market where volumes make the platinum and palladium markets look like a day at the
beach. The London Bullion Marketing Association continues to report nearly unbelievable trading
numbers in both physical and paper trade on the order of a thousand tons a day. Even when you
take into consideration that these volumes could be puffed by two or more dealers reporting the
same trade, these are still astronomical numbers that cannot be supported with physical delivery.
Gold demand continues at a record pace worldwide and so do the number of short positions in
both New York and London. The best way to take advantage of any meltdown in the derivative
gold market would be to own the physical metal and keep it nearby. There is no way to time the
big even in gold; just as there was no way to time it in palladium or platinum. The platinum and
palladium markets, as it turns out, may be serving as warm-ups for the main event in gold.

That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.

The May News & Views is at the printer and will be out shortly. We think you are going to like
this issue written during the weekend after the April 14 Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click link above and make the appropriate entries.

USAGOLD (4/26/2000; 8:30:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29366)
Today's Report: Action in Platinum and Palladium Could Be Warm Up for Main Event in the Gold Market
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
4/26/00 Indications
 Current
 Change
Gold June Comex
278.30
-1.50
Silver May Comex
5.00
-.01
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
97~13
+0~11
Dollar Index June NYBOT
108.50
-0.04

Market Report (4/26/00): Gold weakened in the early going with nothing discernible in the way
news to explain the move. Both the and European markets drifted down in thin, quiet trading and
the trend carried over into the New York open. Once again gold owners were given a glimpse as to
what the future might hold for gold when platinum soared to $800 after a short squeeze on the
April contract developed on the COMEX. The situation is not end in itself but symptomatic of
much deeper problems in the precious metals as a group. The situation with platinum will not end
here. I believe there is more in store as the year unfolds. As we have said repeatedly, the
extraordinarily large derivative numbers associated with the gold carry trade, mine hedging
operations and outright options' speculation could lead to the same sort of explosive price move if
those on the long end required delivery of their metal. When contract holders demanded delivery
of their palladium on the Tokyo Exchange a couple months back, exchange officials closed down
the market. We continue to speculate that we may be approaching a similar watershed in the gold
market where volumes make the platinum and palladium markets look like a day at the beach. The
London Bullion Marketing Association continues to report nearly unbelievable trading numbers in
both physical and paper trade on the order of a thousand tons a day. Even when you take into
consideration that these volumes could be puffed by two or more dealers reporting the same trade,
these are still astronomical numbers that cannot be supported with physical delivery. Gold demand
continues at a record pace worldwide and so do the number of short positions in both New York
and London. The best way to take advantage of any meltdown in the derivative gold market would
be to own the physical metal and keep it nearby. There is no way to time the big even in gold; just
as there was no way to time it in palladium or platinum. The markets, as it turns out, may be
serving as warm-ups for the main event.

That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.

The May News & Views is at the printer and will be out shortly. We think you are going to like
this issue written during the weekend after the April 14 Wall Street Meltdown.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click here on link above and make the appropriate entries.

Leigh (4/26/2000; 7:57:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29365)
Hyperinflation
It seems as though someone else asked (some of) these questions recently, but I don't recall the answer. What happens to wages during a hyperinflation? Will they go up in proportion to prices? Will workers be willing to work for their old salaries just to have a job?

If wages do go up, where will all the money come from? Will our government continue to print in ever-increasing amounts? Where will it end?

Gold Trail Update (4/26/2000; 7:45:42MDT - Msg ID:29364)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

THC (4/26/2000; 7:45:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 29363)
Rhody re Gold Exports
Rhody,

I don't think "ownership" of an product has anything to do with the terms "export" and "import."

If a product is transported from the US to a foreign nation, it has been "exported." I don't think it matters if the product was owned by US or foreign entities prior to the export.

I don't see how the gov't could accurately distinguish whether a product is owned by a US entity or not for each unit that is exported. So I would assume that this issue is ignored in their trade figures.

FWIW

THC

Black Blade (4/26/2000; 6:29:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 29362)
Morning Wakeup Call: PMs down!
Source: Bridge News
Au down -$1.40 to $275.30, Ag down -$0.09 to $4.93


UK Treasury confirms next Bank of England gold auction May 23

London--Apr 25--The first two gold auctions in the second program of six--each of around 25 tonnes--of the UK's official reserves will take place on May 23 and July 12, 2000, the UK Treasury confirmed Tuesday. It is intended that the remaining four auctions in the program will take place in September and November and in January and March 2001, it added. (Story .14151)


Black Blade: Yawn…………Ho Hum.


RossL (04/26/00; 05:56:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29361)
Short Squeeze in Platinum Futures

Yesterday was the last day for trading the April platinum contract. The WSJ reports that "60 to 70 contracts" were open at the start of trading, and 47 were left open for delivery at the end of the day. The shorts had to bid the April contract up $209.70 just to close out 23 or 33 contracts. WooHoo! The April contract closed at $775 while the spot price barely moved. How could this possibly be a liquid market?


HI - HAT (04/26/00; 05:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29360)
WAR
Get into your own personnel war-time footing now while everything is comparatively normal and sundry supplies are available and cheap. International trade flows and settlement systems breakdown could cause severe supply and allocation distruptions. Hiding from view what you have and protecting it will become more important than trying to get a bigger fistfull of paper dollars and being "exposed". more than you have to be.

In my opinion the U.S. is going to engage the Marxists in Colombia in a mid-range grinding side-show, under guise of protecting the Panama Canal, as well as putting down this percieved hemispheric threat.

Other War theaters will probably also manifest. Only with external foes will the U.S. Regime be able to focus the hate and deflect the publics outrage that will come their way over their failed policies and stewardship.

The Wars and assaults,threats, to the national interests, will be used to contain and emergency manage the eventual structural breakdown of the U.S. economic model.

Rhody (04/26/00; 04:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 29359)
U.S. gold "exports"
Midas published some interesting information this past
weekend re US gold exports. These have been running at
levels close to 900 tonnes per year annualized while total
US gold production remains at 350 tonnes. There has been
much speculation concerning the origin of these gold
exports. Some said it was dishoarding of Y2K gold. Others
speculated that it was panic selling by private investors
as gold has dropped back toward its lows of last summer.
Midas now identifies the source as the NY Federal Reserve Bank, where most of foreign central bank gold
reserves reside. In short foreign central banks have
been repatriating monetary gold at five times the rates of
former years. The US government seems to be trying to
hide this repatriation by calling it an "export". You
can't export someone else's propertry, so what gives?
Since 1970, about 25% of the foreign gold held at the
NY Fed has been repatriated, yet in the past 6 months this
slow withdrawal of gold has turned into a stampede. Might
we not be witnessing the beginning of a gold bank run on
the Fed??? Why are these foreign CBs demonstrating such
a dramatic lack of confidance in the Federal Reserve Bank?
Why did the US government try to hide the withdrawal by
classifying it as an "export"? (Adding a bogus $1 billion
gold export to the trade figures only subtracts 3% from the trade deficit totals.) Comments would be most appreciated.

SteveH (04/26/00; 03:22:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29358)
MS
Forgive me if someone pointed this out. Yesterday, I believe something significant happened at Microsoft. Steve Balmer(SP?) offered to each MS employee stock options at the new strike price of MS stock. Why is this important information? As has been pointed out by Farfel and Bishop and others, the ESOP (EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTION PLANS) contribute to the SEC reportable profits that MS makes. If the employees are not exercising options, this will cause further erosion to MS profits, thus creating a viscious downward spiral necessitating the kind of move Mr. Balmer (sp?) just made. In other words, he didn't do it to keep his employees, rather, he did it to keep the spiral of less or no profit from starting or increasing.



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