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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/26/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Peter Asher
(11/26/00; 23:59:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 42237)
Where have all the Gore votes gone?
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=65000686
Long time passing!
When Miami-Dade suddenly halted their re-count, I said "I wonder what they are trying to hide"
Well it appears to be a ploy to count the democratic leaning precincts only, stop the music, and use that tally to claim the uncounted precincts would have gone the same way. Turns out that if it had continued, the rest of the count would have added to Bush.
Excerpt from above link
>>>>>The Myth of Miami
Gore never had a treasure trove of
uncounted votes in Dade County.
This is specious. Brian Kalt, an assistant professor of law
at Michigan State University, has closely followed
Miami-Dade's recount. He notes that by beginning in
numerical order, it proceeded first through heavily
Democratic precincts, many of which had gone for Gore
by as much as 9 to 1. The 135 recounted precincts as a
whole gave Mr. Gore 74% of the vote, compared with
only 53% countywide. That means that the remaining
precincts as a whole went for Mr. Bush, and would have
delivered far fewer additional votes for Mr. Gore.
"The count was just about to move into heavily
Republican and Cuban areas," says Mr. Kalt. "Given how
the rest of the precincts would have voted, I don't see
how Gore would have picked up votes. If the trend had
continued, an admitted if, Bush would actually have
gained 400 votes countywide."
Mr. Kalt's analysis squares with that of other political
observers I spoke with. But such realities don't fit easily
into the "spin rooms" of cable television, where even the
anchors are parroting the line that Miami-Dade would
have been a "gold mine" of Democratic votes. No one
mentions that the Miami-Dade board originally had voted
unanimously not to have a manual recount on Nov. 14,
after a sample recount of three overwhelmingly
Democratic precincts turned up only six extra Gore votes.
The board voted to hold a recount only after it came
under intense political pressure from Democrats and
became the target of several Democratic lawsuits.<<<<<<
Journeyman
(11/26/00; 23:56:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 42236)
Paper = physical @rc
Hi again rc!
Normal people would indeed regard paper gold and physical gold as different -- but we're not in Kansas anymore!
Regards,
Journeyman
rc
(11/26/00; 23:20:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42235)
Van Eeden and his derivatives
@Journeyman
Sorry Sir. I overlooked it. It did not occur to me to mix paper gold and physical because, in my mind, they are two different worlds.
Have a good night!
Journeyman
(11/26/00; 22:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42234)
No apologies accepted -- none necessary!! @USAGOLD
Hi Sir USAGOLD!
Thanx for taking the time to respond! I'm not at odds with FOA much at all. I think there is likely to be some sort of temporary price separation too -- but things are just wierd enough to fool us both!
I think there's very strong motivation for TPTB to keep the price down if they can -- and what else explains the upside down physical supply-demand figures?
Regards,
Journeyman
Farfel
(11/26/00; 22:27:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42233)
@PH in LA, give it up, your beloved Democrats are a disgrace
It amuses me to no end that you go on and on about the importance of a manual recount, even though the Florida "counting committees" are all composed of a majority of Democrats.
Is that your idea of a fair recount? Do you think that there can be absence of bias?
From my perspective, the failure of Gore (as a de facto presidential incumbent/proxy for the presidential incumbent) to secure the presidency in a clear cut fashion is sufficient grounds for the man to relinquish office.
He needs to do what is best for the country, NOT for him and his special group of insidious backers.
BUT Clinton himself never ever did what is best for the country AFTER having lied unabashedly to the entire country, so I do not expect his proxy to do any better.
Thanks
F*
Journeyman
(11/26/00; 22:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42232)
Have you checked the context in the link? @rc
Hi rc!
Thanx for the feedback.
Have you checked-out the link, though? Eeden puts his figures in context of total gold (paper plus physical) traded.
Regards,
Journeyman
rc
(11/26/00; 22:17:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 42231)
Paul van Eeden and derivatives
@journeyman
This fellow Paul Van Eeden is taking us for a ride. The difference between supply and demand is close to 40%, not 0.1% and the CBs are the suppliers. Everything else is literature or better disinformation.
USAGOLD
(11/26/00; 22:17:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 42230)
Journeyman. . .
My apologies. I should have said at the beginning of my last post that my comments were in reference to the Hamilton link you posted.
SHIFTY
(11/26/00; 22:05:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42229)
DRUDGE REPORT
http://www.drudgereport.com/
XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX SUN NOV 26, 2000 23:12 ET XXXXX
DIRECTIVE: CLINTON WHITE HOUSE ORDERS 'NO TRANSITION'
The General Services Accounting office declared on Sunday night that it will not release $5.3 million to George W. Bush in order for him to commence a presidential transition team.
GSA spokeswoman Beth Newburger addressed the press Sunday:
"As long as there is not an apparent winner, and the outcome is unclear, there's not much we can do."
But the order to not allocate the cash to the Bush team did not come from GSA Administrator David J. Barram, a Clinton appointee.
It came from White House chief of Staff John Podesta -- on the day before Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris was to certify Florida's recounted returns!
According to the WASHINGTON TIMES, Podesta issued the directive ordering the GSA and other federal agencies not to proceed with any transition activities "until the time when the election is decided."
"Because of the uncertainty over election results, no president-elect has been identified to receive federal funds and assistance under the Presidential Transition Act of 1963," Podesta wrote.
"Until a president-elect is clearly identified, therefore, no transition assistance as contemplated under the Transition Act is available."
Developing hot...
USAGOLD
(11/26/00; 21:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 42228)
Journeyman. . .Off the cuff. . .
You cannot have these discussions in all their permutations without full consideration of FOA's assertion that a two tier market will develop at some point -- just as we now have an official gold price of $42 here in the United States maintained even when gold sold at over $800 in the open market. Even if it operates only so briefly, I think a paper price for gold and a real price for real gold are in our futures. It will occur simply because that is the only way real settlement can occur.
DeGaulle understood this problem and kept demanding delivery in the late 1960s. Eventually the London Gold Pool -- in which the United States was the chief supplier -- capitulated. $35 gold was fiction then, just as $265 gold is fiction today. London/NewYork will capitulate again. The dropping volumes are a march toward that surrender to free market forces, as more and more paper players realize that the game is coming to an end. By the way the next step was a formal dollar devaluation. This time around we may get the same thing only this time we'll call it "the end of the strong dollar policy." The effects will be the same.
What is admirable is that the London/NewYork crowd have been able to provide gold at under $300 to an army of buyers in order to maintain this fiction. As you already know, I see the BOE sales and the bevy of third world country leases as part and parcel of maintaining that fiction. I think this paper gold system will break down under the pressure of the Washington Agreement and the new initiatives led by Venezuela in the third world as supply lines shut down. Those who hold paper will be faced with the prospect of getting the lower of the tier prices -- to keep the COMEX and LBMA from closing down. (Then you also have the problem of what Europe and Japan might do with all those U.S. Treasuries they have so faithfully held all these years.)
I go back to the recent statements out of N. M. Rothschild about the central banks curtailing leasing. Their public pronouncement is very important and serves as warning to the bullion banks and hedge funds with their tail-ends still hanging over the canoe. I'm sure it is not being taken lightly. The fact that Rothschild came forward with this at this time to me is extremely significant. Rothschild remains THE MAJOR PLAYER in the gold market. Their statements could be telling us that they have taken their losses in the carry trade and are now ready to stand aside. First "in" the carry trade; and now first "out."
Along these lines,I also think that the old guard in the gold business is concerned about an inordinate amount of power having concentrated at the hedge funds not just in gold, but in currencies as well. It cannot be a comfortable feeling to finally realize that the further gold is driven south, the greater the liklihood that your gold loans will not be repaid as one producer after another goes over the cliff. Even more disconcerting when you begin thinking that you may have conjured a monster that you cannot control. I might add that these people are powerful but they are not omnipotent. It is a difficult reality to fathom that Homestake is closing down the oldest and most continuously production gold mine in the United States and this closing cannot be taken lightly. The same knot must form in the stomach when a high level banker thinks about the hedge funds driving national currencies over the cliff -- the Australian dollar comes quickly to mind. These are not the sort of developments that enhance loan repayment both at the gold mining companies and third world nations. That is the real reason why both the gold carry trade and the value of the dollar are about to do trend flip-flops -- because it is now necessary for stability, the new watchword in board rooms that count.
Do you see how a free market solution might be the only real solution with gold, and that might be precisely what is in motion? Understand that and you begin to see why FOA has been saying that if you really want leverage, it comes with owning the physical. But I won't speak for him beyond what I have already said. I'm sure he will have much to say about recent developments upon his return.
Though I appreciate studies which prove the thesis that gold is under management, the only thesis that matters is the one that tells us how it will all end, and what might be the best strategy for the typcial investor. And of course this is where our common advice to own the physical comes into play. I can give you direction, but I cannot tell you precisely when "the event" will occur. As simple as our solution has been, it is the only one that makes common sense. So we continue to recommend it. The world of gold is changing, and I will continue to emphasize that buying gold below $300 is like buying in the late 1960s at $35. When that day of devaluation does come, it will come as lightning in the night, as another notable poster once warned. Only those who have stored yellow metal nearby will fully benefit from its occurrence, because this time around it might actually reduce to the fall of the U.S. dollar as the world's only reserve currency -- something once again full discussed on the Trail. . . .
More some other time. It's getting late and the new Benjamin Franklin biography beckons.
Journeyman
(11/26/00; 21:23:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 42227)
Not OUR government, Nadler is right a wiff of fascism, Establishment through and through @ALL
Hi PH, ALL!
Look folks, stop, take a deep breath and hold your nose. There is more than a wiff of fascism as Nadler suggests: EITHER candidate, that is BOTH candidates are establishment through-and-through. It's NOT "OUR" government, it's THEIR government, it's the best government money can buy. Those who pay Nader's 22,000 lobbyists are the senior partners.
We have state capitalism. Which, if you're forced to make the choice, is better than state socialism -- but they're very hard to tell apart at street level.
O.K. Now, what's all the celebrating -- and sore losing about? WE lose no matter how it turns out -- unless it weakens the power elite - - - or we get gridlock.
Regards,
Journeyman
PH in LA
(11/26/00; 20:50:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42226)
Official Certification?
Official Officialdom at Work.
"My take on tonight's events? Bush has won." USAGOLD (11/26/00; 19:17:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 42218)
"Nobody likes a sore loser. Gore's career is kaputski if he presses on. Surely a good night's sleep will help him?" Cavan Man (11/26/00; 19:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42220)
So it's all over, is it? We just watched George Jr. solemnly declare himself the president elect based on the "certified" result in Florida. A certification based on incomplete tallies and uncounted votes, part of which was based on the totals originally turned in on November 14, since more up-to-date tallies were unavailable.
Well, that's good enough for George and his father's cronies. Just get someone to "certify" a result and that's it, is it? and since it has been "certified" he now calls on Gore to quit the process. We have traditionally had a system of laws, courts, repeals... all part of the checks and balances built into our constitutional system. But now, it's "let's throw all that out and just go with the official certification". Even though an idiot can see that the "certifier" is just part of the Bush campaign. No pretense of integrity. Just play the "official certification" card and hope no one will notice.
It all looks pretty corrupt. George W., from the first moment, wanted to squash the counting of votes. He ran straight to court (the first candidate to do so) whining for an injunction to stop all that extra counting. He lost with that concept twice and still has it on track for the US Supreme Court. And now he wants the whole country to get behind him, even though the recount remains unfinished, and accept him as the president elect?
Well, that cannot happen! Trying to make a president without a proper and lawful count of the vote is just plain stupid. It does more to undermine our system of government than Gore ever would, even if he never quits fighting on for a truthful count and an honest process. And it is just plain wrong. If George and the republican clowns advising him can't see it, many of the rest of us can. He'll make some president, with that mentality. And some of us are never going to forget it.
Journeyman
(11/26/00; 20:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42225)
The Big Picture & Mr. Hamilton's questions LINK!! @Pandagold, USAGOLD, ALL
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hamilton112700.html
This link (repeated from previous poster) is the link to the Adam Hamilton article referred to in the post below.
Regards, j.
Sierra Madre
(11/26/00; 20:20:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 42224)
Cavan Man...is Mexico a sovereign country?
Well, I'll parry that with another question:
Is the U.S. of A. a sovereign country?
I, for one, do not think so.
(Some of us gold bugs have really weird ideas; but the truth is weird in an insane world.)
As for Mexican money: it is not yet, the American Dollar, although Larry Summers has gone on record in Congressional Testimony, as favoring BRIBERY (sic) as a means of dollarizing Latin America.
Journeyman
(11/26/00; 20:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42223)
The Big Picture & Mr. Hamilton's questions @Pandagold, USAGOLD, ALL
As we all know, gold traditionally acts as a barometer to fiat
failure, otherwise known as "inflation." However gold doesn't
cause the inflation -- as we all know, it's a monetary
phenomenon, that is, inflation is caused by issuing too much
megabyte/fiat and credit, triggering the inexorable law of supply
and demand. Don't take my word for it? How about Nobelist
Milton Friedman:
"There is perhaps no empirical regularity among economic
phenomena that is based on so much evidence for so wide a
range of circumstances as the connection between substantial
changes in the quantity of money and in the level of
prices." ... "It follows ... that _inflation is always and
everwhere a monetary phenomenon_ in the sense that it is and
can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the
quantity of money than in output." -quoted in Judy Shelton,
_Money Meltdown_ (New York: The Free Press 1994), p. 176 &
177
Most of us here at USAGOLD believe TPTB are unmercifly attempting
to hold the price of gold down. They're attempting to shoot the
messenger, which needless to say won't stop the problem -- even
if they could be successful. But gold isn't susceptible to death
from this sort of thing -- from their point of view, gold is more
like The Terminator.
Now while low gold prices won't stop inflation, a sudden upswing
in gold's price, on the otherhand, would be a MAJOR signal that
inflation is indeed here. Sort of like the certification of "W,"
by the Fla. Sec. of State, while the verdict may not be final,
most people would recognize that the overly adipose member of the
fairer sex had begun to vocalize.
TPTB, as FOA/TG, etc. have pointed out, includes those who don't
want world trade to collapse, meaning the Europeans, Japan, --
nearly everyone. On the other hand, the foreign (non-American)
PTB can't continue to absorb all those extra dollars they're
continually being sent as measured by the ever-ballooning US
trade deficits and, especially, the current account deficits "we"
are endlessly sending to them. The reason is well presented by
the following:
No Central Bank can accumulate a growing stock of U.S.
Dollar reserves, if its country does not export more than it
imports. What we have is, in effect, a neo-mercantilism
based on conservation of U.S. Dollars. ... Thus, the world
over, national economies have been oriented to exports -
always in exchange for Dollars - as the mainstay for the
respective national currencies and banking systems. As soon
as exports of any one country seem to fade, the speculative
sharks begin to circle. The currency is deemed "overvalued".
A devaluation is at hand. ... The Central Bank will raise
interest rates drastically, to stem the Dollar hemorrhage
and retain or bring in Dollars. The devaluation will wreck
savings, and the high interest rates will devastate the
productive structure. The Central Bank will continue to
invest its Dollar balances in U.S. Treasury Bills paying
less than 6%. Thus even the most severely afflicted
countries are financing the U.S. Government, at a cost to
themselves. All countries in the world are in competition
for U.S. Dollars, which they must obtain at all costs, for
failure to obtain Dollars means devaluation, ruination of
savings and financial havoc. ... The economic centre of
gravity of all countries has been thrust outside their
borders, placing them all in a condition of chronic
instability. Since Dollars are the objective, the U.S. has
to be the buyer, and the U.S. must run trade deficits to
supply the world with export surpluses. ... Some analysts
speculate that the U.S. trade deficit may reach $300 billion
a year, and fear that whole areas of U.S. economic activity
may be wiped out by the desperate export efforts of the rest
of the world. Such is the prevailing condition in the
world's economy. Clearly, it is unsound for the world to
depend on exports to the U.S. for national stability. And it
is profoundly unsound for the U.S., to place itself in the
position of buyer of last resort to the world. -Hugo
Salinas Price, The spectres of Bretton Woods, http:/
/www.plata.com.mx/plata/salinas9.htm
It's not like this all happened by mistake:
We have about 50% of the world's wealth but only 6.3% of its
population. In this situation, we cannot fail to be the
object of envy and resentment. Our real test in the coming
period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will
permit us to maintain this position of disparity. We need
not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of
altruism and world benefaction--unreal objectives such as
human rights, the raising of living standards, and
democratization. [*7 George Kennan quoted in Sheila D.
Collins, "From the Bottom Up and the Outside In," CALC
Report, 15, no. 3 (March 1990):9-10] -James W. Loewen, LIES
MY TEACHER TOLD ME, (New York, NY: Touchstone 1996), p. 216
But until enough of at least the foreign PTB decide to let gold
go -- or lose control, it's clear they'll keep the price down.
They simply cannot allow the price of gold to rise -- as long as
they can stop it. And as Mr. Eeden (in the link origianlly
provided by Randy@TheTower) explains, they DO have a powerful
tool to do just that. Derivatives, paper gold:
In an abnormal derivative market [where the size of the
derivatives market is large in comparison to the size of the
underlying asset's market -LRW], the amount of derivatives
being traded, based on a particular underlying asset, is so
large that changes in the supply and demand for the
derivatives causes changes in the underlying asset's price.
Exactly the opposite of a normal market.
+
The smaller of the two markets will require the least buying
or selling, i.e. the least money, to change its price and
therefore the price of the smaller of the two markets will
change to approach the larger market. *This convergence of
the derivatives market with the physical market of the
underlying asset on which it is based, as the derivatives
approach expiration, is a well known phenomenon.*
+
*The physical gold market is less than 2% of the size of the
derivatives market. The annual supply deficit is only about
0.1% of the total market and central bank sales, which
everyone is blaming for the demise of the gold price, are
only 0.12% of the gold market*. -Paul van Eeden, The Meaning
of Derivatives: Futures and Options, http://m1.mny.co.za/
MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225698F004F7B9D?OpenDocu
ment
So TPTB have a motive, they have a viable method -- AND, somebody
correct me if I'm wrong, they've concentrated a large amount of
the gold-short risk in Goldman-Sachs, which will postpone the
stampede for the doors as long as possible.
Now when you're rigging things, aside from losing control, the
next worse thing that can happen is that you're exposed -- then
others can play you and your scam falls apart much quicker. So
when GATA and Dr. Harry Clawar (AND ORO, Sharfin etc. here at
USAGOLD) exposed the price rises around the world, followed by
price "crashes" when New York came on line, they had to go to
plan B.
Which brings us to that wierd Area 5 on the "Gold INTRAday less
INTERday Volatility" graph in the Hamilton article above. Looks
to me on a quick look that TPTB got their act more together by
taking their action out of New York and spreading out more around
the world. And it looks like they've gotten very good at nipping
even small interday jumps in the bud.
The idea behind this is to effect the _predictions_ speculators,
etc. (but particularly speculators with bucoup bucks) are making.
As long as noone _believes_ gold will be allowed to rise and so
none dumps money into buying, the price will be smothered in
paper.
BUT REMEMBER -- holding gold down, attempting to shoot the
messenger, won't prevent the disease, inflation. It's like
sticking the thermometer in ice-water to hide a fever.
Eventually the disease will become apparent to all. It's the
knowledge that dollar inflation is next to inevitable -- not gold
as barometer but gold as money -- that makes Alan Greenspan sneak
comments like the following into his speeches:
"In summary, then, although information technology by its
very nature has lowered risk, it has also engendered a far
more complex international financial system that will
doubtless bedevil central bankers and other financial
regulators for decades to come. I am sure that nostalgia for
the relative automaticity of the gold standard will rise
among those of us engaged to replace it." -Alan Greenspan,
to American Enterprise Institute, April 14, 2000
<http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000414.
htm>
When will gold break out? Not even TPTB know with any certainty.
Regards,
Journeyman
P.S. Pandagold is also correct -- where the money is is the key.
BUT it has already been created, the only question is, where will
it show up next -- and when? USAGOLD's post may indicate the
turning point -- it may begin showing up HERE!
Hill Billy Mitchell
(11/26/00; 19:50:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 42222)
Black Blade # 42191 HOF nomination
By virtue of the great admiration of Black Blade's post # 42191 I hereby nominate it for inclusion into the USAGOLD Hall of Fame. Not often do we get so much in so few words, delivered with such class, precision and simplicity that the uninitiated can digest it without the need for the usual requirement of Tums. This is the sort of information that we need to be able to pull up without the necessity of sifting through a virtual mountain of archives.
HBM
Cavan Man
(11/26/00; 19:40:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 42221)
USAGOLD
The BIS ain't chopped liver. Probably just a coincidence-- the timing of Crockett's remarks.
Cavan Man
(11/26/00; 19:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42220)
USAGOLD
Nobody likes a sore loser. Gore's career is kaputski if he presses on. Surely a good night's sleep will help him?
auspec
(11/26/00; 19:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42219)
FLASH ALERT!!!
Washington D.C.
Bush certified as victor in Fla, White House power outage followed in rapid succession. Clinton Press Secretary denies the blackout has anything to do with shredders working at excess capacity. END
USAGOLD
(11/26/00; 19:17:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 42218)
It Don't Take A Weatherman to Know Which Way the Wind Blows. . . .
http://www.hk-imail.com/inews/public/article_v.cfm?articleid=12631&intcatid=12
My take on tonight's events? Bush has won. If Gore presses forward, he will do so while risking the government's ability to function and tearing the country apart. Perhaps he doesn't care given a milieu where political careers all-around are more important than the American system of government. He'll be pushed by his own party to concede, but it looks like he'll reject even that. Gore is staring defeat in the face. But none of this is as important as what is implied by the situation as described in this Reuters' article published today:
"
Warning on currency trends
Thomas Atkins, Reuters
BERLIN: Key finance officials warned against global economic imbalances over the
weekend, saying they could lead to an abrupt reversal in currency trends that have favoured
the dollar versus the fledgling euro.
Andrew Crockett, head of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), said the growing US
current account deficit was unsustainable and that a shift in market sentiment could lead to a
sudden, damaging weakening in the US dollar.
Officials in the Financial Stability Forum, an umbrella group of financial and banking
officials from leading industrial economies launched in 1999 and charged with examining
weaknesses in global financial structures, now worried about a sudden dollar shift, he said.
``In the global stability forum, do we worry about global economic and financial imbalances?
The answer is yes,'' Mr Crockett said at an economic forum.
``In the US current account, at some time that position will be unwound. It could be
unwound in a benign way in which there will be a reversal in exchange rates,'' he said.
``Or it could be reversed in an abrupt way and we do know that when adjustments in the
market begin to take place, they often do so not in the benign way,'' he said.
Bank of France chief Jean-Claude Trichet warned that the overall current account deficits
among the world's biggest industrialised nations was unsustainable.
``I am struck by the fact that the industrialised world is posing a permanent current account
deficit. It used to be the contrary,'' he said.
``It is not possible to live in a world where the richest nations are unable to save and are
asking the rest of the world to finance them,'' he said.
--------------------
I repeat: It is not possible to live in a world where the richest nations are unable to save and are asking the rest of the world to finance them.
So in the face of this, does the potentiality of a Gore or Bush administration amount to anything beyond interesting television fodder?
Nero, and Larry King, fiddled as Rome burned.
Trichet should be the head of ECB, and perhaps someday soon he will be.
Pandagold
(11/26/00; 18:56:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42217)
Beyond the sun...........
The following quote is taken from an article by Paul van Eerden in his 'Understanding Gold (in the new era) part V1 (www.theMININGWEB.com
"........It is no coincidence that the gold price decline started the same year as the US stock market shook off all its shackles and headed for the moon. We have already seen that events in the rest of the world caused an unprecedented influx of foreign capital into the United States, starting in 1992 and gaining serious momentum since 1995. More than just increasing the value of the dollar, this influx of capital, that amounted to well over one trillion dollars since 1990, also had some other consequences............."
One trillion can roll off the tongue, but can you comprehend it? One trillion dollar bills stretched end to end would stretch a few hundred thousand miles BEYOND the SUN. Repeat, a few hundred thousand miles BEYOND THE SUN.
Trillions of dollars have been pumped into the system courtesy of the US government, either directly, or indirectly ('indirectly'? Will leave you to puzzle that one out). Its main function has been to prop up the US economy, hit most others, and allow the 'elite' to go on a buying spree in the far corners of the world at knocked down prices. The world has been, and is being, bought up with monopoly money.
Our serious problem today is that we are unable to comprehend the vast amount of wealth power that has been created, and is operating out there. It is greater than that held by any individual nation and renders governments impotent againsts its dictates. This is not something that is going to happen, it already exhists.
On inflation, it is not the amount of money in circulation that is its cause, it is in whose hands it is circulating. Give a few millions to a multimillionaire and he doesn't go increasing his purchases on items within the 'basket of goods' on which our inflation figures are determined. The money is put to work to create more money in one way or another.
Eventually, when new money is created, even though it is only circulating in the upper strata, it will find its way
down to the lower levels. That is unless some means is devised of sucking it out of the system, or tying it up, before it reaches those levels.
Can you think of ways of sucking it out of the system. or tying it up? Here are just a few 'off the cuff' suggestions. Siphon some off in a mini crash of the stockmarket, Tie some up by convincing people to leave it in the market because it will go back up eventually, get people to exchange their countries currencies for yours. Get the world's banks and financial institutions to hold your currency as reserve in place of gold - whilst it's lying in the vaults it's a free loan to you. Are you beginning to get the picture? Those are just a few. If those fail, there are other more serious ways.
Fortunately, or unfortunately, there is always something that comes along, call it divine intervention if you like, to correct imbalances, when they are allowed to get out of hand, whether they are of nature, or human interchange. I say unfortunate because so often these corrections have a habit of being unpleasant and always hitting the 'poor' (today, anyone with less than a million or two. If you are really at the bottom of the pile, then you are not just poor, you are the 'socially deprived')
The day of judgement, I fear, is drawing near.
As I always like to leave on a cheerful note, I would like to say that I hope everyone had a pleasant holiday, and now looking forward to the next one which is just a few weeks away. As the holiday approaches remember it is really a birthday celebration that dates back two thousand years. It is known as Christmas - a time for present giving. Now what was the first ever Christmas present? Ah, GOLD of course. The 'Wise' believed it a present 'fit for a king'.
Canuck
(11/26/00; 18:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 42216)
Major laughter
Galearis,
I'm glad I got my 'grizzly' retraction in (18:23MT) before you caught me. (18:27MT). Lol, lol.
I hope I am rich by the end of the week and I hope you have a dollar more than I!!
Sincerely,
Canuck.
Canuck
(11/26/00; 18:31:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42215)
Declaration
All posts in the last couple days re: Goldcorp, Placer, Anglogold, Red Lake etc. are for 'info-tainment' purposes only.
I am not qualified to give investment advice, please do your own (D.D.) research and I hope luck is with you.
Go gold, go Gata, go Euro!!
Galearis
(11/26/00; 18:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42214)
@ Canuck,
Got me good!
My leg is longer, yes it is. (smile)
L.
Galearis
(11/26/00; 18:27:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42213)
@ Canuck and Nickel62
The Red Lake saga...
Hello agin (as they used to say up north) and hello and welcome to sir Nickel62.
Just a lurching in post and then to run out agin (smile) once more. Ontario has only black and polar bears, no grizzleys - and no polar bears at that latitude. So, Canuck, shame on you, you were abusing a poor little black. (smile)I can also assure you that had it BEEN a grizzley, it would have kicked back!
When I worked at Campbell in my youth, Dickenson was the poor and neglected brother of the pair (of which Campbell was the other.) One could almost throw rocks at the headframe from Campbell's (an exaggeration, of course.)At that earlier time there were always rumours of the imminent demise of Dickenson - it even looked shabby with its moldy looking headframe and untended lawns (smile).
About all I have time for right now....
G.
Canuck
(11/26/00; 18:23:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 42212)
@ Galearis, Nickle62
Pulling your leg on the 'grizzly bear' story, thought I'd REALLY jazz up the Red Lake stories. Rest are true, as I recall (smile).
Will return to common sense, week day decorum tomorrow...
...maybe!!
To gold.....clink.
Canuck.
Canuck
(11/26/00; 18:17:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 42211)
Yes, Goldcorp is Placer's neighbour
http://www.goldcorp.com
"However, most observers failed to recognize the opportunity that this mine presented. It was a property that had been severely undercapitalized and as a result largely unexplored, yet it was extremely well located. Immediately next door was one of the world's highest grade and lowest cost gold mines, the Campbell Mine. Its owner, Placer Dome, had made large capital investments there and is continuing to reap big returns.
In February 1995, we reduced our production rate at Red Lake by 20% and began a Cdn$10 million underground exploration program. Forty-five days later we had a major discovery. The program's first nine drill holes returned an average, uncut assay grade of 9 ounces of gold per ton. This grade was a phenomenal 30 times higher than the grade of gold we were then mining. The discovery had identified a new and very important gold structure in an area commonly thought to have little potential."
-End Quote-
Canuck
(11/26/00; 18:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42210)
Campbell Mine
http://www.placerdome.com
The Campbell underground gold mine celebrated 50 years of production in 1999. Located at Balmertown in the Red Lake District of northwestern Ontario, Canada, the mine has operated continuously since its opening in 1949.
The newly completed 1,819-metre deep Reid shaft provides access to 550 vertical metres of exploration potential which was never before accessible. The shaft allows for more efficient mining of current reserves, development of reserves at depth and exploration for new gold zones.
Ownership Interest
100%
Location
Campbell Mine is located in Balmertown, Ontario. Neighbouring communities include Red Lake, Balmertown, Cochenour, McKenzie Island and Madsen, Ontario.
Number of Employees and Contractors
410
Production
1999: 262,015 ounces of gold
1998: 304,161 ounces of gold
1949-1999: 9,917,172 ounces of gold
Production Costs
1999 total cost: $201 per ounce
1999 cash cost: $145 per ounce
Processing Plant
Canuck
(11/26/00; 17:52:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42209)
@ Galearis, Nickle62
Good evening gentlemen,
Awesome story Galearis, yes the wild Canadian north. I didn't see any polar bears either but did get into a 'fight' with a small grizzly. Putting out garbage one night and apparently the grizzly figured I was infringing on his dinner. Fortunately, there was a rake beside one of the cans that kept us a few feet apart. He knawed and batted at the rake for 10 minutes before I got a good shot at his nose. He ran and I promptly changed my underwear.
Dickenson was the name of the mine I was at. Non-unionized at the time (1979/80). Who is Davidson Nickle62? Campbell which I am near certain is Placer is a few hundred yards from the old Dickenson, now Goldcorp. Who owned the mine prior to Goldcorp? The documentary mentioned Claude resources as a property owner but the show (last night) always refered to the greater Red Lake region. As we know 'Campbell Mine'(PDG) and 'Red Lake Mine' (G) (former Dickenson) are in Balmertown, the bulging metropolis 7 miles from Red Lake (population, maybe 1,200 in 1979/80)
I now recall my uncle (whom I had shacked up with) taking me somewhere in the other direction of Balmertown and explained the old Madsen mine. He had worked there for a number of years before it closed down and he moved over to Dickenson.
It absolutely blows my mind that I as a kid toiled like a red-neck in the Dickenson mine and now 40 years old have shares in Goldcorp the same mine. Retracing that thought, my research at Goldcorp.com lead me to believe that Goldcorp's mine was actually in or near the town of Red Lake. I do not recall seeing any mention of Balmertown on their website.
Goldcorp's red hot find (high grade mineable at $89/oz.) located next door to Placer does indeed raise my eyebrows.
Yes indeed Nickle62 the drifts are very close, very close indeed. The very interesting speculation of Goldcorp's merger with CSA is Robert McEwen's (CEO, Goldcorp) priming of the sale of Goldcorp. Also interesting is the fact that 'punching' drifts of 400 or 500 yards connects the two mines.
Any thoughts boys. Check goldcorp.com for further details.
Canuck.
Canuck
(11/26/00; 17:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42208)
@ Lamprey_65
Good day Sir,
I'm not Canuckee over at Kitco however I will check the Kitco site to see the imposter.
Thanks.
Cavan Man
(11/26/00; 17:19:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42207)
"Cavan Man" or, "Renaissance Man"
All: Just finished cooking a portion of the evening meal and cleaning up the kitchen for Mrs. Cavan Man.
We've enjoyed a wonderful holiday! No attention has been given to the embroglio in US politics; owing to the self imposed "news blackout". Yes indeed, it was a wonderful four day weekend.
We have neighbors and (although we don't agree on vital issues) FRIENDS who are Jews, Mormons, Greeks, Protestants, agnostics, Arabs, Hispanics, Orientals and African Americans. We even countenance a few "lace curtain" Irish :>)!
There is absolutely nothing that Algore or Dubya can do that will affect our happiness. In our tiny neighborhood, we are all Americans. Have a safe and profitable week...CM
Cavan Man
(11/26/00; 17:08:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 42206)
Sierra Madre
Is Mexico really a sovereign country? Can it be said that any nation that has adopted the currency (fiat) of a foreign country is in fact sovereign nation IYHO? Many thanks...CM
Galearis
(11/26/00; 16:24:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 42205)
@ Canuck: The Red Lake Saga
The name of the mine next to Campbell Red Lake:
was Dickenson Mines Ltd. My memory is not getting worse, it is just getting slower. (smile) The mine manager's name (of Campbell R.L.Mines Ltd.) was I believe a Mr. Chisholm. He had a pair of lovely daughters (smile)
H.G. Young Mines was at the time defunct - but was also quite close (walking distance)to Campbell (GoldCorp). The OPP idiots who tried to arrest us wanted me to take them over there to show them where we found all the gold mentioned in the taped up letters. Unfortunately it was near dark at the time and they then also discovered that they had forgotten the gate key! (grin)Keystone Cops comes to mind. The gold we mentioned was left - in case there was a search at some later time. Too bad, yes?
Madsen Red Lake Mines Ltd, was, as I recall, in the process of shutting down at the time of my stay. (And was much closer to the town of Red Lake than was Balmertown.) Rising gold prices may have given it a stay of this execution.
The area had great beauty, and I remember the lovely beaches and lakeside vistas.. I also remember the regular evening thunderstorms with their pink masses of clouds flickering throughout with magnificent lightning displays. Clear nights revealed northern light displays. I remember too the week or more of unbelievable heat - which reached on a couple of days temperatures of 100 degrees F. This would surely surprise many on the forum who believe Canada a place of perpetual snows. I never saw a polar bear either (smile)
G.
SHIFTY
(11/26/00; 15:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42204)
Periodic Ponzi Update
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Nasdaq 2,904.38 + Dow 10,311.61 = 13,311.61 divide by 2 = 6655.80 ponzi
Down 172.73 Ponzi points from last week.
We are at an all time Ponzi low and I feel "we aint seen nothin yet!"
Hold Gold and hang on!
link by RossL
thank you Sir
From the Banana Republic of Florida
your pal
$hifty
Chris Powell
(11/26/00; 15:02:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42203)
New 'Midas" commentary and letter from Placer Dome
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/578
Latest commentary from GATA Chairman
Bill "Midas" Murphy.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Cavan Man
(11/26/00; 14:09:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 42202)
Energy
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature975093003.html
"Americans Brace For Expensive Winter"
RossL
(11/26/00; 14:02:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42201)
good charts and analysis
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hamilton112700.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/klombies112700.html
I hope everyone had a good time with family and friends over the long holiday weekend in the USA. I'm still trying to catch up on the threads. Thanks to SteveH for providing the link to one of the two recent GE articles listed above, and I haven't seen much discussion on the Hamilton one yet.
Hamilton gives a powerful argument that TPTB have been holding down the POG and has some nice charts to back it up. Volatility is rising and the "cabal" can't hold gold down forever. This is a good read and he has some questions at the end that need some answers.
Klombies has some good charts, but still bases his analysis on technical indicators. I would definately take some of this analysis with a grain of salt. The market is manipulated! How can someone base their predictions on charts where there is a reasonable chance that the prices have manipulated? Both the XAU and platinum discussion seem to ignore the problem. However, I believe that it is safe to conclude that the price of gold is far from it's fair value and is a great buying opportunity. Sometimes I feel that GATA is like a little yip dog going up against a pit bull. The pit bull will get old and slow some day.
Galearis
(11/26/00; 12:37:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42200)
@Canuck re Red Lake area
Red Lake stories...
Hello Canuck, I read your post with great interest.
It must be nostalgia time on USAGOLD forum and your posts on the Red Lake area, as
stated yesterday, brought back a wealth of memories for me. You see I went up there
fresh out of high school in the late ‘60s at the youthful age of 18. At the time I was (with
my brother you know as Rhody) already well and truly bitten with the allure of the north. I
continue my visits to the present day to various areas of the north (including similar
latitudes in other provinces) doing field work of various descriptions. Some of this is
geological and some botanical - all is a "trip" to me. The Red Lake area was one of the
beginnings for me.
At that early time my parents ran into the mine manager of Campbell Red Lake, and like
many dutiful parents approached the man (whose name escapes me now) for possible
summer employment at the mine. We needed the money for university to begin the
following fall. It was fortunate in our case that like many parents there was an element of
niavity in this, for had they known the conditions to which they wanted to place their
precious off-spring into, surely their attitudes and actions would have been different.
These were pioneer days in the north, and mining development (of which to Red Lake had
also relatively a recent beginning) had, as you also describe, resulted in a number of
communities springing up around the mines that were quite "wide open". Working
conditions both in the mills and underground were un-unionized and a nightmare of
potential fatal accidents both on-going and potential. (I have the same memory problems
of what mine sat next to Campbell - sorry.). My first lowly role underground, like many,
was track- cleaning. My first partner was, in retrospect, clearly a psychopath with a past ,
and who for three days presented to me a constant stream of anecdotes of his criminal
adventure. He was most pleased about (and described in "exsquisite" detail for me) his
part in a gang rape of a 70 year old woman. Three days with this creep 1-1/2 km. at the
end of #2 drift! Such was the beginnings of a most rapid education of a different sort for
me.
My next role was partnering with a just-off-the-boat Italian whose only vocabulary
consisted of profanity and single word directions of what next to do. He was perhaps the
most ambitious of partners in a constant search for maximizing his bonus, and he did not
care how daring the risks were to attain this. I graduated to shute pulling with the fellow.
He would regularly climb up inside when the muck hung up and bang away with the bar.
When the rumble started, out he would fly a scant fraction of a second before the ore
crashed against the stop board. He would do this all day long. He scared me skinny! Of
course we blasted the most ornery hang-ups and the fellow never wanted to wait long
enough if the blast was not quickly forthcoming. He had never heard of slow spots in fuses
(which I was aware of even at my tender age). It was all I could do to hold him back from
going to see what was the matter!
Other things we used to do to maximize bonus was to high-grade the sample car with v.g.
If the shute was stubborn or had a low rating we would do this to get moved to a "better
producer" for us. (Yes, I saw a lot of high-grade, but sadly not like you describe in your
post. I had no problem with his doing this.) We both needed every penny. At $1.65 per
hour, our pay rate, the bonus was sometimes a significant improvement. I wonder how
long this fellow lived doing what he did every day. He was still doing it when I left. In
retrospect I never met a better argument FOR unions than what I saw at that mine.
The town of Balmertown was a wild place too. As students we were purposefully placed
in the "old guard" barracks so that we would not be exposed to the dangers represented
by the other houses which were full of the transient crowd. There were regular knife fights
and other mayhem every Friday and Saturday night. In spite of this, I got drunk for the
first time in my life up there. (smile) I did meet a few of these fellows, however, and some
were amusing and memorable. Others scary. One fellow's life ambition was to invent the
first atomic powered cigarette lighter. Another searched for a number of excuses to beat
me to a pulp. Strange hobbies some people have, yes? (He never managed to catch me!)
Perhaps the most amusing of all was the fellow who was forced to leave his Quebec town
when caught copulating with a cow! He had to bring a ladder to accomplish this feat - but
he was on some level quite proud of his accomplishment - another reported his bragging
that the cow had its ears back through the whole process. This he took as her measure of
enjoyment. I did not feel it worthwhile to make his acquaintance more directly. Later, he
got into some trouble with a local girl. Working underground with this crowd was only
part of the excitement.
Of course there was also our brush with lawlessness up there. I quickly became known
that we had an interest in minerals and, as you might imagine, this came to the notice of
the local high-grade detachment of the OPP. We never brought a thing up from
underground, but really we did not have to because the nearby H.G Young Mine made v.g
available to us on the dumps. We had a great time with this sport and had a good haul of
specimen gold - which unfortunately was of sufficient grade to get you into a jail cell
under the Act. Our error was to mention it in letters to home. Unbelievably, the postal
clerk apparently opened mail and notified the OPP about some of our comments in these
letters. Upon moving out of the barracks at the end of our employment we moved in with
a friend (whose parents were vacationing) and wasted some time partying etc. Little did
we realize the extent to which the OPP was hard up for collars; they entered our old abode
and searched the place. As it turned out an emptied the waste paper basket revealed all of
the torn up letters received from our parents. It must have taken them days to tape these
all together, but that is what they did - and found some references to our activities.
We found ourselves in hot water, indeed! This even included around the clock surveillance
and a stake-out to watch our house. They even tried a search of the house - which I
refused to them (they did not have a warrant!). I got out of the fix (Rhody was not in at
the time) by claiming that we were just bragging in the letters that they found, and they
could not make a case as a result. The really scary thing to me in all this was the extent in
man-hours they invested in trying to collar a couple of kids, and the gross incompetence of
them all. The incompetence was what saved it for us.
TheStranger
(11/26/00; 12:22:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 42199)
Black Blade (11/26/00; 03:33:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42191)
Black Blade - marvelous. Perhaps you have said all of this before. I don't always read everything that makes it into the Forum. But thanks for providing such a clear explanation.
lamprey_65
(11/26/00; 12:21:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42198)
Canuck - You've been busy!
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2000q4/2000_11/1001126.135428.canuckeee.htm
Saw your post over at Kitco and thought some here might be interested --- concerns the Bush family, including Barrick Gold.
Don't know how reliable the info is, but interesting regardless.
nickel62
(11/26/00; 10:46:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 42197)
Cannuck, Great story!!!!
I have been to the two mines you spoke of in Red Lake on an analyst tour about four or five years ago. The Placer Mine is their Campbell mine and has some of the highest grade ore in the world. The Davidson Mine is now owned by GoldCorp and has been shut down since I was there by a union strike and low gold prices. The two mines are now recognized to both be working the same ore body with incredibly rich veins running through it. The Davidson mine changed it's name to something that played off the reknown of the area when Goldcorp acquired it about six years ago. the Goldcorp mine and the Campbell mine of Placer are within several hundred yards of each other and frankly I am surprised that Placer has not tendered for the Goldcorp mine during this gold depression since their new shaft would easily allow them to access the Goldcorp property. In an effort to make the Davidson (current name unknown by writer but I think they renamed it the "Red Lake Mine" or something similar)more profitable they built an entirely new shaft and restructured the union contract, or at least were trying to the last time I heard anything. The grade of gold ore in this mine is spectacular and if gold ever returns to a free market should be a real beauty as the Campbell Mine of Placer that is directly next door always has been. The bars were still there and going strong when I was there but the locals were already on strike at the Gold Corp mine and I have to admit that while financial analysts have their qualities, exciting in bar room situations is not one of them. We probably bored the locals more than they were used to.
silvercollector
(11/26/00; 10:35:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 42196)
Thanks Black Blade for answers
Hopefully to continue a dialog;
From your post,
"The year 1999 was an unusual year in that there may have been some hoarding of oil and distillates by the end user, and also some stockpiling by refiners. But shortly after the Y2K event passed without causing much of a disturbance an extraordinary thing happened. OPEC ministers met and decided to cut back oil production. That in itself isn't usual, but the fact that they actually made an agreement and nobody cheated is unusual. The effect was that inventories were quickly drawn down."
So can I ask again that if 1999 was an overstocking does the fact that inventory figures for 2000 compared to 1999
(ie down 15%, 20%, 25% etc.) appear misleading? Were 1999 inventories high compared to 1998, therefore are 2000 figures comparative to 1998?
Again from your post,
"No refiners wanted to be caught holding expensive oil if the bottom fell out of the market. The result was that inventories remained low and the price kept rising. Many refiners who were not affiliated with large oil producers had opted for "just-in-time" inventories in order to prevent being caught holding expensive oil in a declining oil price environment and to also avoid inventory taxes on unprocessed oil."
Does this explain the severe backwardization in crude or is something else causing this?
From your post,
"They eventually submitted to blackmail, coercion, and extortion from the US and it's allies, and they began to increase production of oil. Of course by this time, some in the industry began to notice an increased demand for oil, and those supplies were critically short for heating oil and distillate products. Another weak link (actually several weak links) was discovered that affected the supply of oil to the end user. Not only were there not enough tankers and pipeline capacity to handle the increase in OPEC oil production, but worse was the fact that refineries were at full capacity and still barely able to meet demand – forget about heating oil and other specialty products."
So now OPEC has ceased to increase supply because they risk an inventory glut. Is this correct?
From yours,
"So in effect the OPEC producers could pump oil like there was no tomorrow and it would not matter one bit. There isn't anywhere to store it, and no way to refine it."
Again, a potential oversupply, yes?
And from yours,
"Of course I have stated for quite some time that the real story isn't so much oil, but rather it is Natural Gas. Heating oil is only used by relatively few people for heating. Several times that number in the US use NG as a heating fuel. Here there are shortages as well. This is a bigger longterm problem."
Are we deflecting the oil/refining problem to NG? Trying to wean ourselves from foreign controlled oil to domestic controlled NG seems, as least on the surface, to be what is happening. Does this postulation have merit? I am considering NG call options for next winter. Without any form of commitment, implied or otherwise do you think this might be a good idea?
Take care yourself,
Silvercollector
Canuck
(11/26/00; 07:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 42195)
@ Galearis
Good to hear from you again.
I was up in Red Lake in the fall of '79 and spring of '80. I had gold in my hands during that $850/oz. peak. I remember driving a raise with a native fellow named Solomon.
He was a little guy about 5 ft. 6 but strong as a bull. We drove the raise from 9th level to 8th at about 50 degrees if I recall. The vein we were following was brilliant yellow. I'd take out my little pick-axe each morning and whittle out a chunk of gold the size of a baseball. (big sigh). Nineteen years old and not a single clue; too concerned about the next drunk, watching the fights at the local tavern and waiting for the monthly trip in for the strippers.
For the life of me I don't recall the names of the 2 mines 'side by each' in Balmertown. You mention Campbell which I'm sure is Placer that was unionized in '79. I worked at the non-unionized mine which is Madison? Claude Resources? I may have this completely backwards.
Yes, second day on the job I walked into a blast, about a month into it ran over a bag of blasting caps with the train, the following month scaled off a boulder the size of a van shutting down the 9th level for a couple days. About 6 months into it just about backed a full 8 car train down the ore pass, staring down the main shaft I took a baseball sized rock in the head knocking my hard hat down the main shaft. Told the surface 'super' that I lost my hard hat, he was very impressed. Helped my partner drill out a 'frozen blast' in the 9th level raise (he didn't tell me that that was instant firing and incredibly dangerous). Fell off a ladder into a stope and sprained both wrists on the landing.
About 9 months into it went to a funeral, an old guy buried himself under a boulder with a 'muck-machine'. Got myself pinned to the wall with a jack-leg, partner had to bail me out, drove a muck-machine over the air hose, derailed countless trains, smacked one into the doors (I forget what the compression doors every few hundred meters are called).
Was it dangerous? Damn right and a nineteen year old punk really improves the odds. Was it fun? It was the time of my life. I will never forget Red Lake, minus 40 on a 'nice' winter day and mosquitos the size of golf balls in the summer. I had to turn my back to bait the lure when fishing and forget about playing snooker in the local taverns. The natives would drink 'Baby Duck', then fight and throw pool balls at each other and fence with pool cues. The OPP would arrive at the 'scheduled' time and haul a bunch of rowdy rebels away every night. The toughest part of the next morning was going down the shaft elevator smelling the breath of quality red wine. Oh well, Red Lake and red wine, I suppose it has to be.
I went home(Ottawa) at XMAS 1979 with more money than I could count. My buddies, half in college and the other half pumping gas could not believe the cash. I bought the party elements for a week, it was brutal. Half a dozen old high school buddies liquored up for a week, playing poker for girlfriends and no one gave a 'rats-ass'. My best buudy racked up his car one night and I handed him a couple hundred dollars and told him to get it fixed. I think back 20 years ago and just shudder.
Now we live in the 'new economy'. Yeah right. Bust your butt in a mine and then tell me all about it. I look at the young pups at the banks and the brokers and shake my head. These guys wouldn't last a day. I love the young male tellers; hey buddy, take off your dress and let's go to Red Lake, make a man out of you. When you see a boulder that you can't budge that's laced with gold you'll see the difference between it and the cash drawer at the bank. That paper garbage is a man's life that you just murdered. You go down to the 30th level where it's 90 degrees and so humid it should be raining, drill out 8 feet of drift, muck it up and get an ounce of sweat and blood, put it into your hand, watch it shine, hold it tight and then we will talk. Witness a jack-leg throwing you around in a drift for a day and then count your precious paper.
Yes Galearis, big, big sigh. Can't ramble any more, too tired, too old. Man, were those the days.
Cavan Man
(11/26/00; 06:33:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 42194)
Russia could join EU military force
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20001125/wl/europe_russia_dc_2.html
Interesting development? Where does Russia fit in Trail Guide?
Topaz
(11/26/00; 06:06:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 42193)
SteveH, Rhody.
Steve,
The GE link is a beauty, shows where we "should" be iffin all was well - oil and platinum/Au are there already and by my fuzzymath XAU 1/4 of true worth. Yen inflation the key to chaos as it stands at present IMHO.
US$ 400 Au ..........imagine the mess that'd cause!
Rhody,
Good to see you back on deck - recovered from the flu I trust?. A great first-hand account of the length these "gentlemen" will go to to maintain the status-quo, keep your head down!
Rhody
(11/26/00; 05:36:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42192)
re. comments on Silver Institute by Galearis
Last year I e-mailed the Silver Institute with the
question: What is your relationship with the Silver User's
Association (SUA).
A day or so later, I got a long distance phone call
from Washington D.C. from the S. I.
Their answer to my question was that they have overlapping
memberships and consult on projects in which they have
a mutual interest. The rep. of the S.I. further volunteered that the SUA was mostly a defunct organization
with one part-time secretary. The rep seemed to be much
more interested in who I was, and why I wanted the info
than in answering my question. They went to the trouble
and expense to track down my home address and telephone
number and phone when a simple e-mail was the most I
expected.
My conclusions? The SUA is not a defunct organization
with a single part time secretary, otherwise how could they
possible have overlapping memberships with the S.I.?
Indeed, the SUA is a part of the CABAL that manipulates a
cheap commodity market price for silver so that big
consumers can continue their low cost consumption at the
expense of silver investors and mine producers. The SUA
is big, and it's vindictive (Ask Ted Butler about them).
The overlapping membership with the S.I. means that that
organization is also tainted, and that all data from
the S.I. on the nature of supply and demand fundamentals
is suspect. The last thing you will get from these people
is the truth. The true irony here is that silver mine
companies actually contribute to the Silver Institute.
This is like a farmer paying the local fox population to
tend his chickens.
Regards, Rhody
Black Blade
(11/26/00; 03:33:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42191)
RE: Silvercollector #42162
Silvercollector: I'll try to answer your questions as best I can, but you must realize that the current developing petroleum crisis is a much more complicated situation than Y2K hoarding, supply-demand deficits, or an over-valued US Dollar. The year 1999 was an unusual year in that there may have been some hoarding of oil and distillates by the end user, and also some stockpiling by refiners. But shortly after the Y2K event passed without causing much of a disturbance an extraordinary thing happened. OPEC ministers met and decided to cut back oil production. That in itself isn't usual, but the fact that they actually made an agreement and nobody cheated is unusual. The effect was that inventories were quickly drawn down. As prices began to rise, refiners did not want to store any oil in inventory, as they were concerned that the price could as quickly plunge again, especially if any OPEC members began to cheat on their quotas (not an unheard of event for OPEC producers). No refiners wanted to be caught holding expensive oil if the bottom fell out of the market. The result was that inventories remained low and the price kept rising. Many refiners who were not affiliated with large oil producers had opted for "just-in-time" inventories in order to prevent being caught holding expensive oil in a declining oil price environment and to also avoid inventory taxes on unprocessed oil. It should also be noted that over the last decade, 36 refineries in the US have closed down and no new ones have been built. The EPA regulations and the liabilities of building new refineries are simply too much of a risk. Another thing that you might want to consider is that prior to 1999, the Asian countries were under a severe economic meltdown that we referred to as the Asian Contagion. The demand for oil and oil products had declined in the Asian countries. However, after the year 2000 rollover, many Asian countries were on their way to economic recovery and expansion. The demand for oil and oil products began to increase again thereby putting additional pressure on the oil market.
That brings us back to square one. The OPEC producers were soon reaping the rewards of a higher POO. They eventually submitted to blackmail, coercion, and extortion from the US and it's allies, and they began to increase production of oil. Of course by this time, some in the industry began to notice an increased demand for oil, and those supplies were critically short for heating oil and distillate products. Another weak link (actually several weak links) was discovered that affected the supply of oil to the end user. Not only were there not enough tankers and pipeline capacity to handle the increase in OPEC oil production, but worse was the fact that refineries were at full capacity and still barely able to meet demand – forget about heating oil and other specialty products. Al Gore had convinced Bill Clinton to release SPR oil from the reserves for political purposes, and even though prices temporarily dipped, it soon became apparent that the SPR oil was not going to solve the heating oil problem – in fact it was almost immediately sold to European contractors. Why? Simply put – the SPR oil is light crude and more desirable for processing into heating oil which is also critically in short supply in Europe. The difference being that Europe had refining capacity and was willing to pay-up for the oil, whereas the US did not have refining capacity and did not want the burden of storing the oil. So in effect the OPEC producers could pump oil like there was no tomorrow and it would not matter one bit. There isn't anywhere to store it, and no way to refine it.
Of course I just touched on another point here and that is the grade of oil. I warned you that this is a complicated situation – but you asked ;-) Gulf Coast oil is generally Light Sweet (low sulfur) Crude (for the most part – but bear with me as I use generalities here), and Middle Eastern oils, and to lessor extent Venezuelan oil is heavy crude and heavy sour (high sulfur) crude oil. Light sweet crude is more desirable of the two as it is easier to refine at lower cost and with a higher turnaround rate, whereas heavy and heavy sour crude oil is more difficult to refine with a slower turnaround rate. That being the reason why Light Sweet Crude is more expensive.
Of course I have stated for quite some time that the real story isn't so much oil, but rather it is Natural Gas. Heating oil is only used by relatively few people for heating. Several times that number in the US use NG as a heating fuel. Here there are shortages as well. This is a bigger longterm problem. The old model used to be that producers would extract NG and inject it into reserviors for winter use. The EPA thought that it would be cute if the next generation of power generation plants would use NG as their fuel of choice. Virtually all of the new power plants are NG-fired. This cuts into the supply of NG – just look at the difficulties in southern California as they face the threat of power outages and rolling brownouts/blackouts. Now thw new model is to use NG year round for power and also in the winter for heat. This adds greater stress to a nearly impossible situation. Why not use other fuels such as coal? Because there are only a few carbon air pollution credits available from the EPA. These credits trade like commodities between various power producers, but there are only a few available. Add to all of this the fact that nobody wants a power plant in their back yard. That will be a lovely thought as they shiver in the dark. Anyway, I have only responded in easy to under stand responses (I hope without getting too technical here)and I probably strayed a long way from your original questions. Take care.
- Black Blade
Knallgold
(11/26/00; 03:11:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42190)
forgot the link...
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=83611
Judge your own!
Knallgold
(11/26/00; 03:06:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 42189)
Sun activity;POG
Magnetic field of the sun has doubled in the last hundred years and could be responsible for climatic changes,a conclusion of german and swiss scientists according to my local newspaper.
They measured Beryllium-10 in the Greenland ice ,an element which is produced by energy rich cosmic radiation.The amount of Beryllium-10 went down the last 100 years as the solar magnetic field is a shield for this radiation.
But the scientists claim the CO2 emissions still the main contributor for gw.
Just another stone of unknown proportions in the climatic puzzle.
We had here the chart of sunspots versus the price of Gold which showed good correlation since (only!) 5 years (the low in the spots coincidet with the high in the POG).We run now to the max. in the sun cycle and hopefully the low in POG....
There is a post on GE about XAU versus moon.Frankly,I don't see a correlation,the same goes with the sun and the markets,it is not that easy and would be recognized quickly.
But the markets live from this gurus and all kind of superstition,first people pray to the false prophets and then send them to hell.Instead of judging their own.It happens'surprisingly for me,in the highest circles.Hey,that is our chance!
DaveC
(11/26/2000; 1:01:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 42188)
Investing and Politics
There have been many studies done of investors/speculators/traders psychology.
One of the most interesting pieces to come out of these studies is that investors who lose do so because the natural inclination is exactly the opposite of what it takes to be successful.
For example, a new investor will buy two stocks, A and B. Stock A goes up and stock B goes down. The new investor will be thrilled with the winnings in stock A and decide to sell to take the profit. Meanwhile stock B continues to decline. The new investor will hold with the hope that the stock will return at least to the break even point.
The psychological studies show that the new investor cannot take the loss in stock B because this is an admission of a mistake and we do not like to admit to ourselves that we made a mistake.
I believe this same pschology applies to voting. After reading hundreds or more opinions in the last two weeks I see that no matter how many facts are put in front of some voters, they will still defend their candidate to the death. I believe it is very difficult for voters to admit they made a mistake.
Another piece of psychology that goes along with this is the need to be on the winning side. I believe this is what stops most people from voting for a third party cadidate. "They can't win" is the mantra and in America, everyone loves a winner. We all want to be on the winning team.
And if our guy wins, no matter what he does in the end, like lie to the citizens for 8 years, his voters will defend him to the death.
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