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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/25/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Belgian (1/25/06; 23:39:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 140889)
@Flatliner
Nice description of the goldprice's behavior. But don't forget that there is still the cartel of index-fabricators out there, which force the fiat-pool-funds to follow. They cannot change a iota on the one and only gold-revaluation movement, but they can surely put their teeth in it (the gold movement), once again.

Read (reread) Randy's post about Angela and his (astute) interpretation of it. Gives an idea about the "changes" that are (need to) taking place.

Leave the goldprice behavior for what it is and concentrate/act on gold's -changing- fundamentals. That's pretty much safe.

Mthirsty1 (1/25/06; 23:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140888)
ira
Goldilox,would love to do what you sugjested,but when you are in a pension and profit sharing plan,as my wife and i are you are limited as to what you can do.My wife has worked in the same lawfirm for over 25 years and everything is tied up in Vanguard funds.One of the things you can't do is invest in the metals market.And even if i could,we are just talking about paper,which we all know,burns very well.

Goldilox (1/25/06; 23:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 140887)
Gold and DOW coupled
@Mthirsty1,

"I would much rather see the stock market, and gold going in the same direction, UP."

Can you give us any reason why this coupling should occur? And if it did, how would you expect this scenario to affect the US $ and other currencies in the global trade markets?

If you believe that the fundamentals driving gold are real, consider moving at least a portion of your 401K to a gold IRA and get quit wishing for long shot wins from a deteriorating asset.

I'd like to win a Lotto, but I'm not banking on it.

Mthirsty1 (1/25/06; 22:56:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140886)
goldilox
As always i get a gracious answer from you.I am accumliating my gold supply as you in the forum are adviseing me to do.I allways have a tendancy to look at the flip side of the gold coin.I just hope we can have our gold and spend it to,when we want to,not because we have to.

Goldilox (1/25/06; 22:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140885)
Wishes
@ Mthirsty1,

I think you are assuming a lot more than is posted about what other people "wish". It's one thing to see economic troubles and report them, and quite another to "wish for them". Sometimes, knowing something is a logical result and hoping the transition occurs sooner rather than later is just chosing the better of two bad outcomes.

On the other hand, seeing it happen before your eyes and only wishing it away is akin to the tale of the "Emperor's Clothes."

I'm concerned about your statement that you hope the dollar doesn't implode until your ashes are spread around, as that suggests some serious ostrich-like behavior - not unlike those who fervently hope that the effects of known poisons they utilize are not delayed until some "later" generation.

As is fairly obvious from what is discussed here and on other financially responsible sites, our global economic systems have some glaring problems that won't go away by just wishing they weren't so.

If they see the light of day, there is a "chance" that enough people will feel the responsibility to drive reasonable solutions, but that does not negate the pain of transition to even workable solutions, something many of us are trying to minimize.

Mthirsty1 (1/25/06; 21:52:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140884)
Gold
I have posted a similar comment in the past, but i just want to say it again(Goldilox,bear with me)I have been watching the gold discussion for quite awhile now,and it depresses me.I have purchased gold from our gracious host,and just bought more today.The way i am reading the posts,everyone is wishing doomsday will come,and that is why the people at the roundtable have purchased gold.I do not understand this exciment that everyone expreses.Why do you want the world to fold up and implode.I myself,as do alot of retired people,do not wish to see the demise of the U.S.dollar,at least not until i'm creamated and spread on the ranch.Are you in the state of mind,that you want to go to the supermarket and buy your groceries with a tenth ounce Mapleleaf.Think about it.We all know that the Gov. is screwed up, the national debt is screwed up,everything is screwed up.But for people to sit back and cheer everytime the dollar drops or the bonds drop or anything that goes wrong,i can't buy it.There has to be some of you out there that has money in an ira or a pension plan.Maybe i am out of line here and if i am this post will be deleted.I would much rather see the stock market,and gold going in the same direction,UP. 0

PRITCHO (1/25/06; 21:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 140883)
From Richard Russell - - - - Latest Comments
http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsf
SNIP: -- Short & Sweet

In turn, gold and silver see what the Fed is doing. And the precious metals are "adjusting" accordingly. Of course, that isn't the only reason gold is rising. Gold is under accumulation around the world. It's now the fourth major currency, and even the central banks know it.

Goldilox (1/25/06; 20:54:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140882)
THE GROWTH ECONOMY
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snip:

You've heard it said that "money makes the world go around." Just looking at components of our economy and government will support this: growth in the money supply, growth in housing prices, growth in the trade deficit, growth in the budget deficit, and growth in Social Security and Medicare liabilities. Low interest rates and the readily available credit and an incredible expansion in money supply (M3) have driven the growth (financial, not true growth) over the past few years.

The rapid growth in the money supply has been on a tear since 1997. The M3 money supply is up 50% since 2000 and has doubled since 1997. Prior to 1997 it took fourteen years for the money supply to double, but only requiring nine years since 1997.

-Goldilox

Chris Puplava puts up some very good comparo charts -

"you say hyperbole, and I say hyperbola.
Let's call the whole thing off . . ."

Paper Avalanche (1/25/06; 20:06:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 140881)
Gold Price and FOMC Meeting Next Week
In an effort to make myself look smarter than I really am, and in light of how predictable POG behaves immediately before, during and after the meeting of the grand pubas (FOMC), let me predict the following POG price behavior between now and the close of spot trading on Tuesday:

Tomorrow: up $3.50 to $564 and change
Monday (day one of FOMC): down $14 to $550
Tuesday (day two of FOMC) down $18 to $532

The upward trend resumes its ascent Wednesday after the FOMC has made its edicts.

I may be wrong. I often am. This prediction is intended for entertainment purposes only and cannot be relied upon for investment advice.

PA

TownCrier (1/25/06; 17:35:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 140878)
Merkel calls for rules on global trade
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2601c8b0-8deb-11da-8fda-0000779e2340.html
(FT) Davos, January 25 2006 -- Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said on Wednesday the international community would face "grave social disorder" if it failed to agree on a global framework of rules to govern competition between old industrial and fast-developing economies.

Globalisation, she said, had sparked fears throughout the developed world. "If we cannot find a conclusive answer to this question, very serious social disorder and troubles may develop, the consequences of which we will be responsible for."

"We need international rules to frame global competition," she said. These should be agreed multilaterally, with such international organisations as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organisation acting as their guardians.

"This is not a socialistic approach, with central planning. But there needs to be a new interaction of the various players," she said calling for "responsible liberty".

^---(from url)---^

It seems to me somewhat significant that she singles out the Bretton Woods institutions by name. It is almost as though an attempt to address an undercurrent of everybody's thought that the IMF is being effectively washed out as a monetary institution, and she is therefore suggesting a means for the institution and its thousands of employees to evolve gracefully into a new (non-monetary) mission instead of fighting the demise of the old Dollar Standard every step of the way as though their jobs depended on it.

When officials are publicly proposing such an obvious "mission creep" for an old institution's order of business, you can reasonably expect that the environment has already been changed in such a way to render them obsolete "as is".

R.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/25/06; 17:10:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 140877)
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http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

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WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold $4+ higher, futures rollover gathers pace

January 25 (from Reuters) -- Precious metals, with gold as the leader, have stormed higher this year on fund and investor buying driven by concerns about Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, dollar instability and positive gold fundamentals.

February gold futures climbed $4.50 to close at $562.50 in a range of $556.70 to $566.90.

The dollar rose against the euro and yen, which weighed on gold in its role as a currency alternative, while oil fell below $66 a barrel, capping interest in gold as an inflation hedge.

COMEX rollover remained a key feature to gold trading as speculators transfer positions out of February futures into April gold before delivery begins next week.

Analysts said next key resistance looms at $575, with a potential intermediate-term target of $600, while support lurks at $550.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Flatliner (1/25/06; 16:35:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 140874)
Pounds of Goldprice ?
Belgian, it appears that the gold price moves with no fanfare. It's like a parade, where the audience fails to show up. Or a lone trumpet singing taps for a dying dollar in a boundless grass field of deaf people. Watching this change fills me with a sense of mourning and anxiety.

Au-some (1/25/06; 15:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 140873)
Treasurys fall
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B41D8A36A%2D64E2%2D4D60%2DA207%2D33196782E497%7D
"The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 21/32 to 100-5/32 with a yield of 4.479%, a level not seen since December 5, 2001. The closing yield also compares with 4.391% in late trade Tuesday.

The 2-year note dropped 5/32 to 99-27/32 with a yield of 4.453%."

Goldilox (1/25/06; 14:32:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 140872)
HUI Watch
Nice little late hour move.

closed 314 and change

Up 8.48 or 2.77%

I guess tthe mining invetors were watching all day to see if the early gold gains would hold.

makcumka (1/25/06; 12:27:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 140871)
Adding to your golden parachute
Given you have an "X" amount of dollars (euro, yen, etc.) at your disposal right now, here how I would act:

In my opinion, waiting for a pullback may be the least favorable approach. Since you will be trying to predict the future, waiting for a pullback, which is "due any time now", you just may get the pullback all the way down to $560, if the gold runs up to, say, above $600 in the next week or two. I myself was in that boat a few years back, waiting for correction to $320 range, only missing the boat and buying at $340. In the grand scheme of things, even if the pullback does occur in the paper markets, who is to say that there will not be a shortage of physical available for purchase, which would (or could) drive up the premiums, this whiping out any advatange you would gain from this paper-price correction?

Second least favorable approach would be "dollar cost averaging" approach to buying gold (again, if the entire amount of money is available to you immediately). Assume a linear rise in gold price over a term of 6 months, of $5/week. In 6 months, dollar-price of gold would go from, say, $500/oz to $625/oz, if Excel is right. If you have a total of $26,000 to buy gold with, buying gold at $500 during week 1 would net you 52 oz, spending $1000/wk for 26 weeks will net you slightly less then 46.5 oz. Obviously, this is taken as a straight line dollar-price increase of gold, without maket fluctuations, volatility swings, sudden shortage of gold available for purchase due to possible war or other factors, etc.

In my opinion, buy what you can now is the best approach. You secure a certain amount of gold right away (CPM is very good about shipping it in a timely manner) and not worry about future fluctuations. If you made up your mind, just buy it. A few dollars potentially "saved" if you time things just right do not outweigh, in my opinion, peace of mind achieved through security provided by gold in hand.

On the other hand, if all you can do is spend a few dollars a week, buy whatever you can whenever you can get your hands on it, up to when you feel you have reached your level of comfort as far as gold ownership is concerned.

All of the above is IMHO, FWIW, DYODD.

OvS (1/25/06; 12:14:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 140870)
Silverton III
Get an extra job. Put all
your kids to work and
especially your mother-in-
law. Take all the extra
pesetos & keep buying gold
and silver. Don't look at
the number of dollars this
is worth, only at the num-
bers of increasing pieces.
Row row row your boat..OvS

silverton3 (1/25/06; 11:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 140869)
Adding to your gold.
If you were going to increase your gold holdings would you

a)buy it all immediately.

or

b)average in, so much per week for 6 months.

or

c)wait for a pullback.

Gold has had such a good run that its difficult to believe that we don't need a serious correction, maybe as low as $475. The last correction was so short I missed most of it...

TownCrier (1/25/06; 10:09:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140867)
Federal Reserve buys Treasuries in open market
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh27240_2006-01-25_15-42-21_n25345585_newsml
Intervening in open market operations today, the Federal Reserve massaged the money supply with a $7 billion overnight repo operation, provided at an easy sub-FOMC rate of 4.23 percent.

In more significant dealings, the Fed injected 'permanent' reserves with the outright purchase of Treasury coupons using $1.09 billion in fresh cash created expressly for this purchase.

When you see how easily new money of this sort can be created, it argues strongly that you should choose something less easily corrupted as the basis of your savings. Choose solid gold -- the yellow metal can't be created and so easily inflated and degraded by the stroke of a government's meddlesome pen as seen in the Fed's open market operations like today's typical example.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/25/06; 07:32:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 140866)
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TownCrier (1/25/06; 07:29:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 140865)
Bankers see volatile markets as Bernanke takes over Fed
http://za.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-01-25T125311Z_01_ALL546404_RTRIDST_0_OZABS-DAVOS-ECONOMY-BERNANKE-20060125.XML&archived=False
Jan 25, 2006; DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Ben Bernanke is poised to take over at the U.S. Federal Reserve next week just as financial markets are heading into a very volatile period for which he is untested, senior bankers said on Wednesday.

Dealers and investors worry that Bernanke, known as a sophisticated academic and inflation targeter, is more focused on fighting consumer inflation than current dangers of markets awash with cheap cash and a sharp U.S. dollar drop, they said.

Markets showed their vulnerability last week.

Japan's stock market suffered more than 6 percent of losses in two days when a high profile Internet company was raided and U.S. stocks posted their steepest drop since 2003 on weak corporate earnings and uncertainty over the U.S. outlook.

The U.S. dollar has shed more than 3 percent of its value this year.

Stephen Roach, chief economist at the investment banking firm Morgan Stanley USA, said on Wednesday at the start of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos the market volatility could continue when Bernanke succeeds Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in six days.

"The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for," Roach said.

Zhu Min, executive assistant president of Bank of China, one of China's top four banks, said markets are extremely sensitive to Bernanke's succession. "You have a very, very vulnerable financial economy. I expect to see volatile markets," he said.

^---(from url)---^

Are you willing to have an underweighted gold component within your portfolio during this important transfer of the reins?

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and put your financial house on a solid foundation.

TOLL FREE 1-800-869-5115, extension 100 to speak with a broker.

R.

Druid (1/25/06; 06:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 140864)
Bank safety deposit box issue....

Druid: Doesn't square with all the latest advertising for gold that is being piped through the parrot box(TV). Vader and group need Americans in the gold game like Europe and Japan need their citizens involvement.

Goldilox (1/25/06; 06:20:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 140863)
Venezuelan underutilization announcement
@968,

Sounds amazingly like Kelo vs. New London.

White Rose (1/25/06; 05:29:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 140861)
Safe Deposit Box issue
OK, we all know we are facing a point of discontinuity soon. Things will never be the same. If the government were to need vast amounts of capital, the easiest thing to do would be to seize mutual fund assets. They are held by the middle class, but not by the rich.

If the government wanted to seize the gold of the middle class, but not the gold of the really rich, then safe deposit boxes would be a good target.

I did some web surfing about safe deposit boxes to find out what I could. I found an excellent web site to help bankers deal with tricky issues. I discovered that bankers really, really do not want to know what is in a safe deposit box for legal reasons (if they know, then in a sense they have a business relationship with the customer, and can be sued if the customer's business goes sour).

The mystery posting said that they were being trained to deal with customer complaints that Homeland Security was picking through their things. So that passes the smell test.

Perhaps the whole "training" was a pilot project to see how widely news of this would spread. Keep your powder dry. Learn there are many safe places in the world besides safe deposit boxes.

bskija (1/25/06; 05:11:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140860)
Safety Deposit Boxes
If Bank of America (on the west coast) and Compass bank were the only ones told to prevent customers from accessing their safety deposit boxes in the event of an economic collapse (if it is true they were told) ;the implications stand out like a pimple on the end of your nose. Think about it.

Caradoc (1/25/06; 05:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140859)
Hail, comrades in arms!
http://www.sortweb.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2412_chart-jan232006-1-2.pdf
It's time to gird up our loins. With Europe trading gold at over $563, it looks like Sinclair's "Titanic Battle" is swinging in our favor.

See link for how things stood at end of New York trading yesterday.

Regards to all,

Caradoc

Belgian (1/25/06; 04:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 140857)
Goldprice in pounds !!!
Made an ATH since 1971 !!!

968 (1/25/06; 03:47:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 140856)
Venezuela Threatens to Take Over Mines
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060124/venezuela_mining.html?.v=2&printer=1
Question :
What does the forum think about the possible nationalisation of goldmines ? Could it happen ? Why ? ... ?

Thanks in advance for your answers

Black Blade (1/25/06; 03:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140855)
Spot Jumped The Fence
This morning Gold managed to break over $560 again while the USD Index tumbled below 88. If this holds it could be an "interesting" day.

- Black Blade

Belgian (1/25/06; 02:30:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 140854)
What a silence !?
Is everybody watching a "gold bull market" or a "gold revaluation market" !?

Chris Powell (1/25/06; 00:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 140853)
Bank of Russia allows 'extraordinary' fall by U.S. dollar against ruble
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3617
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