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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/25/2004
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
mikal
(2/25/04; 23:39:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 117737)
@Druid
http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk
There is much to be said for that book by the Seagraves. But some, myself included feel that it plagiarizes David Guyatt's work, linked above.
While they tell only a small segment of the story, they manage to avoid any treatment of the combatant's motives, history and consequences in either a practical or rhetorical sense. It seems many posters here, for example, posed questions far more relevant to a modern investor or wage earner about the future of world finance and with more compelling substance and breadth.
If Guyatt's books contains documentation of mixed quality as some have noted, it's unlikely that the Seagrave's book will fare much better under close review. Even if some black gold were to exist, it's affect on world markets would be marginal, at best. The IMF was not even allowed to sell a small quota of gold at the insistace of the US Congres. But the IMF is rumored to be holding paper certificates, receipts for much of their claimed, recorded "reserves" book entry, thanks to unofficial, serreptitious price managing over the years, in the form of swaps and/or leasing.
Druid
(2/25/04; 23:33:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117736)
****$403.1****
Druid: The single most important event contributing to the killer yellow metal's price rise over the last year, is the realization by international investors, that the schizophrenic policies emanating from Washington reference the dollar and budget deficits are not working and are actually making matters worse.
specie-man
(2/25/04; 23:16:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117735)
**** $ 402.3 ****
The most significant development for gold in the last year has been the enormously-increasing US Government budget deficit. Greenspan is clearly worried about the FED having to "print money out of thin air" to buy all the Treasury bonds that are flooding the market. This is causing an erosion of confidence in the US Dollar.
Gandalf the White
(2/25/04; 23:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117734)
BTW -- IF my calculations are correct --- KING of the HILL --- report today
**** $396.5 **** balzac (2/20/04; 11:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117441)
IT looks as if Sir Balzac is today's "King of the Hill" !!
(And afterward he gained a large group of close friends !)
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(2/25/04; 23:01:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 117733)
ONE HOUR to go before POG CONTEST Entry DEADLINE !!!
Midnight is the magic time !
TICK TOCK
<;-)
Jing Zu
(2/25/04; 22:24:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117731)
**** $400.7 ****
The one event - above all other events - which most contributed to gold's stellar performance over the past year was definitely the US Federal Reserve Dollars drop against all other currencies. Why? Well that is because they all have held that fiat paper for a long time thinking that it would be an excellent reserve for their country. When Greenspan and Snow indicated that we are able to print as many of those pieces of paper that we wanted and/or needed at, they all pretty much realized what a mistake they had made. They started to dump their holdings and are continuing to dump them. At the same time, intelligent people like the ones that visit this site have seen this coming for years and have been telling many of their friends and colleagues about these issues and more. This has caused them and many others to purchase GOLD causing its value to increase. IMHO, it will increase at a much faster rate in the near future.
Jing Zu
goldenboy
(2/25/04; 22:10:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117730)
******$397.00*********
The single most important reason for the gold price rise is the dollar decline. I am looking forward to jettisoning this initial rocket and getting on with phase 2.
Moegold
(2/25/04; 22:04:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117729)
****391.2*****
Earning less than the inflation rate on your CDs is just too painful.
Guided
(2/25/04; 22:01:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 117728)
**** $412.0 ****
Greetings all. Looks like a good turnout tonight. Good to see some of the old handles.
I guess gold (and silver)is just beginning to do what it will do. Make winners of the ones who hold it as this big game winds down.
Take care.
steady
(2/25/04; 22:01:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 117727)
a positive omen
wiley 3rd times a charm!
wiley
(2/25/04; 21:56:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 117726)
contest
It's the Roo meat ***397.o***
wiley
(2/25/04; 21:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 117725)
contest
It's the Roo meat
Tranquility Base
(2/25/04; 21:51:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117724)
****$395.0****
The twin deficits are the most important factors in maintaining this gold bull. Because of the huge deficits the fed cannot defend its currency thereby creating inflationary pressures. When inflation occurs the smart money invests in 'things'. Gold is the ultimate 'thing' investment for the days ahead. Thanks to all my mentors here; the Eagle has landed at my Tranquility Base!
Goldendome
(2/25/04; 21:33:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 117723)
*********405.10********
Why has gold risen so far in the past year? Because the permutated features of the world financial system, first spawned in the mutant spores released by the International Dollar Standard thirty years ago, have now grown such grotesque and monstrous features, that even the blind can now sense them… and even they, are seeking the safety of Gold!
TPTB
(2/25/04; 21:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117722)
(No Subject)
First a recap of Part 1. (I've written about this before but can't remember if it's on this forum. A "senior moment" if you please.)
In the early 70's (energy crises and all that), the U.S. got Saudi Arabia to agree to accept only U.S. dollars in payment for oil. How? Derned if I know. But they did. And Saudi Arabia made all of OPEC do the same. If you are Japan, buying from Venezuela, you pay in U.S. dollars. If you are India buying from Iran, U.S. dollars please.
But only the U.S. can print U.S. dollars. That means we can outbid anybody. What does it cost to add an extra zero to the end of a check and make it out for $10,000 instead of $1,000? Not much. Basically, all the oil in the world belongs to the U.S. for free. For the cost of printing some paper money. The French think this is an "exorbitant privilege."
If you are China, how do you get U.S. dollars to pay for your oil? Easy. You sell stuff to the United States. Cheap. Cheaper than any competitor can do it, even U.S. domestic competition. Now you have U.S. dollars to buy oil.
In 2000, Saddam Hussein broke ranks and said he would accept euros instead of dollars. He thereby signed his own death warrant. The U.S. picked him up and shook him like a rag doll to graphically demonstrate to all of OPEC what happens to people who fail to enforce the dollar gospel.
OK, that was Part 1. Here's Part 2. For some reason or t'other, let's say OPEC switches to the euro. It could be next week. Or it might be the day President Hillary is sworn in. (Remember how the Iranian hostages were released DURING Reagan's swearing-in ceremony?)
Oil is the lifeblood of all industrialized nations. If OPEC decided to accept only euros for its oil, the U.S., being the world's largest oil importer, would suddenly have to run a trade surplus to acquire euros. This would be a very painful transition. The U.S. has run a trade DEFICIT for as long as I can remember. A trade surplus means we would have to sell more than we buy.
Why would we need a trade surplus? Because WE would have to buy oil in EUROS. We would have to sell goods to Europe to obtain euros. We would have to sell goods in Europe cheaper than China can sell goods in Europe. U.S. workers would compete head-to-head with Chinese workers.
Store prices would go down. Many businesses would not make the cut. Business activity would go down. Unemployment would go up. U.S. workers would achieve parity with Chinese workers. U.S. living standards would go down. This is called 1930's-style DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION. All the investment books in the library strategize against INFLATION as the enemy. Unfortunately they've all been duped into watching the wrong horizon.
I suspect there is perhaps one man in 10,000 who agrees with me on this.
Hmm. I'd be interested in Aristotle's reaction to this. Although if he resorts to sneers and convoluted, incomprehensible English I will lose a lot of respect for him . . . at least I assume he's a him . . . a male . . . and not a female who has assumed a male name . . . although with the anonymity of the Internet, there's no way of ever really knowing, is there? Isn't it great? IDEAS battle with each other rather than personalities and position . . .
Wky_Woodsman
(2/25/04; 20:42:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 117720)
*****$402.2*****
Gold is in a bull cycle. The past year it has made a slow move up. It is a slow tide rising. All of this is dollar centric.
Waverider
(2/25/04; 20:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 117719)
Blaming 'undervalued' yuan wins votes
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FB26Ad01.html
"Notwithstanding that 2.1 million jobs have left the United States since President George W Bush took office in January 2001, the dollar economy has not lost manufacturing jobs; it merely relocated them overseas for more productivity per unit of investment. US transnational companies are still employing a growing global workforce for the benefit of US consumers through cross-border wage arbitrage and dollar hegemony, which permits a fiat currency of the world's most indebted nation to retain the privileged status of reserve currency."
Waverider: An excellent read by Henry C K Liu from the Asian Times.
Druid
(2/25/04; 19:40:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 117718)
America's Secret Recovery Of Yamashita's Gold
http://www.rense.com/general49/sece.htm
In June 1945, with US tanks less than 30 kilometres away, General Yamashita, head of the Japanese occupying army in the Philippines, knew the war was lost. He held a farewell party in Luzon province for 175 Japanese chief engineers, in one of the 175 underground tunnel complexes the engineers had constructed. At midnight, with the sake and patriotic singing in full flow, Yamashita (with two of Emperor Hirohito's princes) slipped out and detonated dynamite at the tunnel's entrance. Buried 70 metres underground, the engineers had only the mute company of row upon row of gold bars, looted by the Japanese army from the territories it had conquered in Asia.
Thousands of Allied prisoners of war and civilian slave labourers from Asia were also buried alive in underground caves, tunnels and mineshafts after they had built the hidden treasure vaults. The only people who knew of the secret stashes and were meant to remain alive, as Sterling and Peggy Seagrave reveal in Gold Warriors, were the Japanese military tops and the imperial family elite, who intended to recover the booty after the war's end.
Despite the murderous precautions taken to protect the secret vaults, US military intelligence officers discovered their existence and seized billons of dollars worth of gold, platinum, precious gems and cultural treasures from the hiding places. Together with Nazi war loot from Europe, the Japanese plunder was funnelled by the US into a secret "Black Eagle Trust, named after the Nazi insignia stamped on gold bullion stolen by the Nazis.
US President Harry Truman set up a secret, high-level government team to launder the stolen assets into 176 bank accounts in 42 countries. In charge was US war secretary Henry Stimson.
**********************************************************
Druid: Appears to be an interesting read.
Toolie
(2/25/04; 19:32:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 117717)
****$393.0****
Ah ha, MK has posed a trick question. It WAS NOT one event but, It WAS that which did not occur. This non-event can be heard in the sound of idle factories and rusting machinery. Seen in the dusty keyboards of computer program writers and the white knuckles of the hand that grips American capital investment.
American producers have eased toward the scenic overlook and find what they didn't expect to see. Still, after gazing, unable to put it into words. Gaining only a vague understanding that it is not the world they must compete with but, that they must create wealth faster than our printing presses. As each avenue of wealth creation falls short in its ability to keep pace, its place must be taken be even faster printing. And so on.
It is almost as though this non-event would best be observed in dense fog, better identified by the fog it displaces. To catch a glimpse of the invisible hand: Listen to what is not said. Watch what is not done. The rest is fog.
Buy all you can folks, It's not every day that a fiat currency is destroyed for your benefit.
Liberty Head
(2/25/04; 19:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 117716)
Listen With Your Eyes
Pay no attention to the words of Greenspan or any other BFD bureaucrat. Just notice their actions and the truth is plain as day.
Greenspan can talk forever about the excesses of government, the only thing that matters is how much fiat he throws into the pot.
Best Wishes
Boilermaker
(2/25/04; 19:15:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 117715)
China's Eating Our Steel
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8037039.htm
snips
The price of steel has skyrocketed recently, raising the cost of many construction projects and cutting into profit margins for some steel producers, but also possibly improving prospects for some 400-plus laid-off steelworkers in Georgetown.
U.K.-based steel consulting firm Meps International reports that the average world price of a ton of hot-rolled coil steel is $432, up $87 a ton, or 25 percent, from $345 a ton a year ago. Some other categories of steel products have seen even bigger increases -- the average price of steel wire rod has climbed 36 percent in the past year, and steel reinforcing bar, or rebar, has jumped 45 percent, according to Meps figures.....
To some extent, the climbing prices have caught the industry by surprise.
In 2002, after Nucor and other steel companies sought protection from what they said was the dumping of cheap steel by foreign countries, President Bush imposed tariffs on steel imports.
Steelmakers thought that when Bush ended the tariffs on imported steel in December, prices would drop considerably. But instead, China's demand for steel absorbed the overcapacity in the market, Hall said.
"China has been growing for a number of years. They consume more than they can produce," he said.
comment,
The prices of steel scrap and coking (metallurgical) coal have doubled the past year. Auto and Appliance prices will soon reflect this. Steel is up more than gold.
The PPI delay is looming larger as a sign of systemic failure.
Boilermaker
GoldCoaster
(2/25/04; 19:05:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 117713)
****403.50*****
What was the most significant factor affecting the Price of Gold ?
On the surface it would appear that it was the fall of the US$.But frankly I dont really care as I dont intend to buy any paper with mine.I only care if my Gold shares allow me to buy more of the physical.Unfortunatly that has not been the case in this country.So,the most significant factor for me has been the rise of our dollar.
Alchemist
(2/25/04; 19:03:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117712)
***********400.40**************
The price of gold has risen over the past year because the PPT has felt that gold need to be moved up to a higher level. The mandate is to try and align the currencies on an equal basis. Because of the gold marking in the European market and the strengthing of their currency there was a need to let gold come up in American dollars. There is set ranges that the PPT is trying to aim for and that is to bring gold to higher levels but in an orderly manner. The end of this year 2004 should see gold about $475.
7nomads
(2/25/04; 18:41:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 117711)
******4.11.4*****
You ever get tired of people selling the same old fishy stuff. Of course Social Security will have problems (I knew something was wrong 30 years ago when my grandparents were double and triple dipping. They had more more than when they were working.) Now my parents are retired and live on one retirement and save one or spend it on "fun" stuff. These are working people, teachers and such.
I'm a baby bloomer and we don't count on every seeing SS.
But Greenspan has critized the SS system, well this was after pointing his finger at Fannie Mae and it was budget deficits before that. His problem is that too many people are borrowing money.
Boilermaker
(2/25/04; 18:15:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 117710)
********403.7*******
The most signifigant factor behind today's low price of gold is the continued manipulation of its price by the agents of the US Treasury abetted by foreign CB's that have an interest in maintaining their US$ reserves until such time as a new reserve is created.
steady
(2/25/04; 18:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 117709)
time
some take time (unfair)
some make time (creativeity)
some return time (honesty)
some lose time (debt)
some got time (prosperity)
steady
(2/25/04; 18:05:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117708)
uh um well uh is uh is um well awwww shucks .......(questiongly)
nothing like sticken my neck out there, especially when its my guru im questioning.
it cant be a zero sum game any longer, so there is no need to quit untill the gold standard has returned, in any casino operation, the house(s)/resturants always gets a take'so since the house takes a take , maybe they flip the timing of there currency interventions so they acquire gold for nothing via the flipping of the digits in the currency accounts untill one pool is so full that it has to be loweerd into another pool and during hte apparent equal transfer some is siphoned off so that on the books it appers equal but the gains or losses are placed into the finacial black hole the gold universe hiiden by any light untill the time comes.............. the relinking of the system to gold/ and possibly silver.
so it appears to me it is no longer a zero sum game especially that gold has translucified into a currency and is fixen to broadcast is golden light from pole to pole and even in every dark cave.
gold- the get u sum... game! welcome on how to SILENCE the fiat crowd.
Remarx
(2/25/04; 18:02:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117707)
********* $404.7 **********
The rise in gold price over the past year has been a subtle trap laid to lure me into taking the last of my retirement out of mutual funds and put it into PMs. At least that is how I felt yesterday after buying a couple of days ago at 408 and watching it drop since! More seriously, I think it is the general instability of the radical rightwing US administration and combined with uncontrollable debt.
Gandalf the White
(2/25/04; 17:59:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 117706)
OOPS --- MAKE that SIX (6) HOURS to go before Entry DEADLINE !!!
Senility has arrived ! <;-)
TICK TOCK ----
Boilermaker
(2/25/04; 17:52:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117704)
Alan Greenspan
Greenspan's remarks today were stunning. Up to now he's been singing " Happy Days are Here Again" and today he's telling prospective golden agers that the good times are over. I think he sees the outcome in November and is lining up with the opposition .
The Dems will use this to destroy Bush. Alan may see that the end for Bush is near and is planting the seeds of his destruction. The harvest could be very bitter.
Boilermaker
Boilermaker
(2/25/04; 17:32:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117703)
Socrates964 (2/24/04; 16:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 117641)
Thanks for the EU-China trade info and link. I've always thought that European firms were more attuned to the quid pro quo of international trade more than their concern for their next quarter financials. While Asian net imports to Europe are increasing they are not threatening at least at this point. Expanding the Eastern European markets makes a whole lot of sense. A corollary for the US might be that their best market strategy would be to develop more Latin America trade and investment.
Boilermaker
NTgeo
(2/25/04; 16:47:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 117702)
***399.5***
From the viewpoint of an Aussie gold buff the recent rise in gold has been mainly due to the fall in value of the US$. As another poster pointed out, the gold price in A$ terms has declined about 10% over the last six months. Some gold projects have been put on hold due to this fall in the local gold price. I wouldn't be surprised if some producers look to renewing leasing. Hopefully the fundamentals of the gold market will lead to a rise in price in all currencies in the future.
otish mountain
(2/25/04; 16:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 117701)
****$409.0****
The most important factor in the last year effecting gold's rise has been the USD continuous fall in value on the index.
A broader look at the interest in gold as a store of wealth can be seen as we enter the full force of the Kondratieff Winter. These price movements we have witnessed in the last 2 years will be considered minor as this winter unfolds.
Thank you Centenial Precious Metals for providing this forum
and to the posters who give their thoughts and views concerning this very important subject.
Great Albino Bat
(2/25/04; 15:58:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117700)
Gold "soaring" this past year?
I certainly don't feel gold has been "soaring".
It's record has been satisfactory, and better than it has been for many years past. But soaring, it is not.
Experiment #1: Go to a jewelry store, check out the prices. Convert selected prices to numbers of gold ounces represented by those prices. Do the prices in terms of gold ounces seem realistic to you?
Experiment #2: Imagine a one ounce pure gold coin in the window, along with the jewelry. Does $400 seem like a reasonable price on the tag by the ounce?
Experiment #3: Take a look at a $400,000 home. Think of one 400 ounce bar such as the Central Banks use as reserves. One of those bars is worth, at $400/oz, just $160,000 dollars. It weights about 28 pounds. Pick up something that weighs 28 pounds. Do you think that the house can be worth the weight of a 400 oz (28 lb) bar of pure gold? Note: I am not equating the value of the house with $400,000 of gold, but only 40% of the value of that gold, as a conservative valuation. If we use the full value of the $400,000, in gold, then we would have 1000 ounces or 2 1/2 bars of 400 oz each, with a weight of 71 lbs. What is a $400,000 house? In Texas, a concrete base, lumber and more junk that will rot nailed to the lumber, plastic piping, a roof that will leak within 4 years if not sooner: a 4,000 sq. ft. pile that needs constant maintenance and is valued at $100/ sq. ft. All this, equal to just ONE bar of 400 ounces of pure gold?
Time is on our side, goldbugs. The world's finances are a house of cards. We are just entering a period of world-wide inflation (of money and credit).
"Deficits don't matter" - Cheney. I guess that's true, but the statement must be qualified: "Deficits don't matter, TO THOSE WHO HAVE DIED." Maybe Mr. Cheney had a big nuclear world war in mind?
The business and investment world will take the surge in commodities to be the sign of a great pickup in business. Businessmen and investors (the "lumpeninvestoriat" as Bill Bonner calls them) will brainlessly jump into the worldwide boom. This great boom is going to turn many cool heads. Gold may be put to the test very strongly. "There's a BOOM, right? So what's your problem? Get real, fella, gold is a has-been!"
So, maybe we have a couple more years to increase our stock of gold at ridiculously low prices. Great opportunity! I'm not complaining.
Count on this as a FACT: Central Bankers of the World are only mediocre thinkers and they have absolutely no idea what to do about the international monetary system. Their minds are mediocre, and this together with their training, works to stifle any conceptual approach to the gigantic mess they have made since accepting the 1971 breach of the Bretton Woods agreements regarding gold redemption. The Dragon of Inflation is loose on the world; who is going to slay it?
It may be the world will roll on its present inflationary course for a time until it suddenly collapses. There is no precedent for these times. We can count on a collapse as surely as night follows day, but we cannot pinpoint the cause; it can be a tiny event that spirals out of control
one fine day.
We really only know ONE THING: paper always tends to its intrinsic value: close to nothing. That's all we have to go on. Gold is our compass and our North Star. Do not listen to the Sirens!
The words Shakespeare applied to LOVE, also apply to GOLD:
".......It is an ever-fixed mark,
That looks on tempests and is never shaken;
It is the star to every wandering bark,
............................
GOLD'S not time's fool, though rosy lips and cheeks
Within his bending sickle's compass come:
GOLD alters not with his brief hours and weeks,
But bears it out even to the edge of doom."
The GAB
TownCrier
(2/25/04; 15:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117699)
Eurosystem bids adieu to another EUR 0.6 billion in foreign currency
Among international reserves remaining, the net position in foreign currency has now been neatly trimmed to EUR 172 billion as an ongoing general reflection of sentiment and subsequent portfolio adjustments.
Meanwhile, on the week, the amount of gold and gold receivables among the Eurosystem international reserves has been held firm at EUR 130.343 billion.
R.
contrarian
(2/25/04; 15:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 117698)
***394.0***
I think Greenspan knows what's happening and he's just covering himself so he can say "I told you so!".
TownCrier
(2/25/04; 15:32:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 117697)
Following a very astute depiction, what path remains?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040225/economy_greenspan_deficits_1.html
HEADLINE: Greenspan says US can't grow its way out of deficits
WASHINGTON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday [to the House Budget Committee] that limits to productivity growth meant it was unlikely the United States can "grow its way out" of its budget deficits.
"The problem is that we are at the cutting edge of technology. We cannot borrow technology to increase our productivity growth. We have to invent it, largely. And that means that we are limited to how fast productivity can grow," Greenspan said.
"(So) I doubt very much that we can find a scenario (in which) we can grow our way out of the deficits," he said.
--------(from url)-----
Brace yourself for the hard way.
R.
Clink!
(2/25/04; 15:26:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117696)
About Greenspan
It occurs to me that Greenspan's recent 'finding of religion' about the dangers of excessive deficits and unfunded obligations, after years of ignoring them, is merely a way for him to be able to say, when TSHTF, that he had been warning about this kind of thing for some time. This would allow him off the hook for all the other things the Fed has created in the way of bubbles. Kind of like warning about putting a straw on a camel's back, when it was you who had already loaded a dozen bales on.
C!
R Powell
(2/25/04; 15:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 117695)
How long can deficits expand?
OR, How long can a fiat monetary system inflate the currency without a serious confidence crisis?
OR, How long can a nation create more debt to pay for consumption?
Perhaps it can continue until that one exogenous event changes the ongoing indifference to the situation to an unsettling awareness of the situation. Will Alan Greenspan's warning that the Social Security System will not be able to pay its obligations become that event? It may depend upon the reaction to his warning that determines many future events. His is certainly not the first warning but may the one that causes a reaction. Then again, maybe not. Remember, that tulip bulb was worth a small fortune to the madness of the majority until they (probably as individuals) decided that a tulip bulb is just a tulip bulb and valued them as such.
Thoughts?
Rich
steady
(2/25/04; 14:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117694)
hobbits
the hobbits are like ants at the moment fending off grasshoppers who havent prepared and are running here and there ( see currency fluctuation) looking for safty!
makcumka
(2/25/04; 14:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117693)
*****400.0*****
I believe that the most important reason for the stellar performance of gold is $$ terms over last year was systematic growth of unsustainable deficits. Spending all the way into stratosphere, combined with decreasing tax receipts, will certainly prove that the only sure bet to preserve your wealth is, as it was for eons, GOLD.
Cavan Man
(2/25/04; 14:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117692)
MAJOR NEWS...Whither the Hobbits??
This is an admission the system is broken beyond repair. This is an admission the fiscal woes facing the US really are intractable.
How much worse is the federal fiscal position without using the SS funds to conceal the true size of the problem?
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
WASHINGTON (AP) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan urged Congress on Wednesday to deal with the country's escalating budget deficit by cutting benefits for future Social Security retirees. Without action, he warned, long-term interest rates would rise, seriously harming the economy.
In testimony before the House Budget Committee, Greenspan said the current deficit situation, with a projected record red ink of $521 billion this year, will worsen dramatically once the baby boom generation starts becoming eligible for Social Security benefits in just four years.
R Powell
(2/25/04; 14:11:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 117691)
********* $397.6 **********
I believe this past year may have solidified a small but significant breach in investor confidence that the US dollar will retain its relative monetary value in the global economy. The longer term effects of monetary inflation is the underlying cause for concern.
Rich
Usul
(2/25/04; 13:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117690)
*******$398.5********
The single event (or perhaps process) that most characterises the dollar's declining trend and the concomitant rise of gold is the continued acquiescence of the US and many other nations of the free world to the creation of debt out of thin air, with no reference to tangible assets such as gold, allowing money supply to rise faster than growth and adding to a total US external debt that is already of historic proportions. Yes, Fed officials such as Governor Bernanke have even encouraged and confirmed the process by stating that "the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost."
Mr Gresham
(2/25/04; 13:56:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 117689)
Wow!
These guys are brutal! Something must be getting ready to pop. I wonder how much play is left in the paper contracts system. I wonder if the trigger point is in the POG/POS pricing itself, or outside in the interest-rate derivs or Dollar derivs?
I feel like we've gotten caught in the middle of a street fight between two gangs. I'm just trying to get home for dinner. But I do take some nicks and cuts, it seems, whenever I get tempted and "go out in the street to play."
Was reading a bit about Bush & Kerry's, uh, past associations. Amazing how fast he came on to be The Choice, eh?, though not so amazing after you consider the type of support network he has certainly developed in his political years. Nothing like being able to bet cheaply on all the horses in a race, huh?
If they decide that W is therefore expendable, well, Watch Out Below! Was it getting too hard to keep the dam standing until after E-Day? Now we got a Plan B -- let 'er rip! Don't get caught standing under any falling markets...
R Powell
(2/25/04; 13:47:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117688)
BIS article mentioning gold standard
1. Rachel Lomax: Inflation targeting - achievement and challenges (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (25.02.2004 17:01)
Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax,1 Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the Bristol Society at the University of the West of England, Bristol, 18 February 2004.
http://www.bis.org/review/r040225g.pdf (PDF, 103653 bytes)
..Monetary Policy goes roughly as follows. For the first time since the collapse of Bretton Woods - arguably since the Gold Standard - after decades of unhappy experiments with fine tuning, incomes policies and monetary targets,...
********************************************************
Cytek
(2/25/04; 12:57:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117687)
Greenspans Speaks again
He said the prospect of the retirement of 77 million baby boomers will radically change the mix of people working and paying into the Social Security retirement fund and those drawing benefits from the fund.
"This dramatic demographic change is certain to place enormous demands on our nation's resources — demands we will almost surely be unable to meet unless action is taken," Greenspan said. "For a variety of reasons, that action is better taken as soon as possible."
"We are going to be confronted ... in a few years with an upward ratcheting of long-term interest rates which will be very debilitating for long-term growth," Greenspan told the committee if the deficit problem is not addressed.
Cytek
Hmmm, Greenspan must be reading the intelligent posters of this site and has figured out the inevitable.
I like the next line the best.
"Greenspan did not rule out using tax increases to deal with the looming crisis in Social Security, but he said that tax hikes should only be considered after every effort had been made to trim benefits."
NICE> Tax hikes and less benefits. Looks like that bonus room i have will be for my folks soon.
BlackBart
(2/25/04; 12:35:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 117686)
****$404.6****
The single factor influencing POG this past year is a result of other factors..and that single factor is the growing REALIZATION by many that anything related to the USofA, whether it be the USD, respect for USA in the world Community, the very grim outlook for the US economy or the possibility that the US will embark on yet another gruesome escapade of "Nation Building", all adds up to wanting a solid safehaven for hard earned savings. In simpler terms, the realization that the fecal matteur (french) is about to hit the fan.
Black Bart
Hang Tuff
(2/25/04; 12:32:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 117685)
Hang Tuff ***$398.30***
The reason the price of gold has increased is because of hard working people like Bill Murphy and Mahendra (99+% accurate for Mahendra) . They have kept me from being discouraged through ups and downs. We have not even seen the begining of what is coming in this Gold and Precious Metals Bull market. HOORAY!! DO NOT SELL. BUY BUY!! BUY!!
slingshot
(2/25/04; 12:31:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 117684)
Yepper.
Great to be a Goldbug!
Even better if you have some Dry Powder to pick up some on the pullback.
Slingshot-------------<>
Socrates964
(2/25/04; 11:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117683)
Coincidences
Interesting that Schroder's plea to cut ECB rates comes out on option expiry day, isn't it?
Also interesting that NYMEX crude is rocketing ($35.70).
Somehow, I don't think we'll have to wait too long for gold to go back over $400.
Tevye
(2/25/04; 11:32:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 117682)
(No Subject)
**** 398.7 ****
The single event that has caused gold to soar in dollar terms this past year has been demand for the Euro; just to balance national reserves amongst various 'assets'. The single event that has caused gold to rise this past year in any currency has been demand for the metal itself: from China, from India, from Arabia, from USAGold!
Gold. Its Tradition!
Tevye
Goldilox
(2/25/04; 11:13:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 117680)
Perceptions
Yesterday, the US $ dropped 1.4 on the DX which was termed an orderly decline. Today it's up 1.0 and called "sky-rocketing"!
Thank you CNBC for fair and balanced opinions.
steady
(2/25/04; 11:08:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117679)
aint it great to be a gold bug. <:+)/~~~~
no turning back
get out the pimpdady mac.
gold to go on the attack
silver gots it back
the digits in your digiatl account you can rack
and into ur sack all the gold and silver u can pack
waiting for u in our hosts racks
call soon before the dollar dive
Mon-Fri (800) 869-5115 (usa gold)
and that aint no jive!
goldquest
(2/25/04; 10:36:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 117678)
****$402.70****
The one steller event contributing to gold's performance, was the exposure that the precious metals received during the super bowl half time show!
silverton3
(2/25/04; 10:27:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117677)
John Maynard Keynes
**** 396.10 ****
The theory on which the Federal Reserve Board is supposed to govern its discount policy, by reference to the influx and efflux of gold and the proportion of gold to liabilities, is as dead as mutton. It perished, and perished justly, as soon as the Federal Reserve Board began to ignore its ratio and to accept gold without allowing it to exert its full influence, merely because an expansion of credit and prices seemed at that moment undesirable. From that day gold was demonetized by almost the last country which still continued to do it lip-service, and a dollar standard was set up on the pedestal of the golden calf. For the past two years the United States has pretended to maintain a gold standard. In fact it has established a dollar standard; and, instead of ensuring that the value of the dollar shall conform to that of gold, it makes provision, at great expense, that the value of gold shall conform to that of the dollar.
Mountain Top
(2/25/04; 09:51:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 117676)
***********$399.00**********
It becomes more and more apparent that that TPTB do not intend to allow the price of gold to rise above about $400.00 at least until after the election. The obvious reason being the preservation of the fiction that the dollar is not in the difficulty that we all know to be the case. We can expect to see them bend every effort to keep the gold price within very narrow bounds.
Golden Era
(2/25/04; 09:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117675)
******* $400.20********
Its part of the covert plan to back US$ by PM, one that is printed by the Treasury and not the Fed Reserve. Sir Alan Greenspan has and will play an instrumental role in this Grand Plan.
The Hoople
(2/25/04; 09:10:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 117674)
**** 407.8 ****
Let's see, $407.8 is about $8 from spot right now. That's either (1) - $6 collar and (1) - $2 collar, or (4) - $2 collars away. You sometimes have to think like a cabal guy. Last year marked the year that the world finally understood we are making helicopter money over here. Sometimes epiphanys come when you least expect them, in this case maybe when going to McDonalds just cost you $11? Not to worry, burger making will now be thrown into the PPI manufacturing sector where they can hedonically deflate the hell out of it.
Magister Aurelius
(2/25/04; 08:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 117673)
*******$406.1********
The single event that has caused gold to soar this past year has been Greenspasm's latest testimony before Congress where he admitted to Ron Paul that the Federal has immense power with zero accountibility. I mean, c'mon, the Fed answers to CONGRESS??? HAHAHAHAHA
Bizkit
(2/25/04; 07:56:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 117672)
***** 400.5 *****
Stop the Madness of the Central Banking Socialist Experiment before it's too late. Restore GOLD. Honest Money for Honest People.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(2/25/04; 07:00:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117671)
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MK
(2/25/04; 06:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 117670)
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Clink!
(2/25/04; 06:39:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 117669)
Why honor politicians ?
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1452
This is a little off topic, but it does have a superb image of a gold medal ! What a waste of good shiny if it were real.....
steady
(2/25/04; 05:39:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 117667)
au/ag!
reeking, shorts leaking, no longer the weakling cause it prices are streaking
silver
in there side a bur
in our view a cure
silver and gold
pure!
Basil
(2/25/04; 04:28:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 117666)
*****$407.6*****
Gold rises or falls from both small and larger levels of changing perception re its intrinsic worth.
One senses more working folks everywhere are finally awakening io the reality of the dollar's weakening value. Our govt's phony numbers re cost of living are wearing thin.One example-- two hiking pals I've pushed gold to for years recently asked my opinion "where and what" re buying
gold (they just got their energy bills).
On a macro level governments,banks,and corporations who've always held mostly dollars either watch these reserves continue to decline or now look for alternatives.Some large players are perhaps discouraged by the seemingly interminable game of switching paper and derivatives.
Ned
(2/25/04; 04:23:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 117665)
Peak Oil, Iraq war, Oil politics...rolled into one.
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
I believe this link may have been posted before but just in case he it is again. A must, must read IMO.
One item that I squeezed out of this very detailed essay is the US election campaign will be a dirty, mud-slinging affair. Alot of finger pointing going on in virtually every federal department and agency. There are alot of people that don't want to see Mr. Bush for another 4 years. I see gold having a fantastic summer and fall; dirty, dirty laundry will be revealed startling most.
Ned
(2/25/04; 04:15:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 117664)
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index closed yesterday only a whisker above 2,000. It has been flirting with the psychological number for a couple days. IMO breach of this support is a sure sign that equities are in trouble.
Philipp
(2/25/04; 02:03:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117663)
*****$399,0*****
It is coming to the end. They are game over. They are stuck in the corner and have run out of munition.
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