All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade (04/25/02; 23:26:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 74348)
A few choice excerpts from JS Kaplan (April 8, 2002):
SUMMARY: My current outlook for gold collectibles and gold itself remains SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH. My outlook for gold mining shares remains STRONGLY BEARISH. Gold shares appear to have made a euphoric peak on the morning of Tuesday, April 2, 2002, with a near record concentration of call buying on individual gold mining shares. Put buying has finally begun to appear in recent days, though at quite modest levels. It will be very important to see how the traders’ commitments for gold, which most recently showed commercials net short nearly 72 thousand contracts, improve as the gold price declines.
Traders’ commitments for gold and silver, as well as for most currencies, point toward a decline in gold prices and gains for the dollar versus the euro, Swiss franc, British pound, and Australian dollar, all of which would be negative for gold.
KAPLAN’S CORNER: QUESTION: Are there any changes to your investment strategy? ANSWER: My latest modification is to be long U.S. equities, which are oversold and likely to bounce through the morning of Thursday, April 18. At that time, assuming that euphoria has returned to the stock market, it will probably be time to purchase puts on QQQ and also buy zero-coupon long-dated U.S. Treasuries. I am maintaining a modest short position in gold mining shares in anticipation of a general decline in precious metals valuations over the next several weeks.
Black Blade: Yeah, that worked out well. I would say that he's been a bit off. Also, the BoE hasn't been tootin its horn lately about the great gains they made by selling about 400 tons of Gold at about $275/oz. Hmmm…
shelllus (04/25/02; 23:07:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74347)
coppock curve for gold bull top?
can anyone make a chart of a daily gold fund [inivx or userx] with a Coppock curve back to 1976? i only have data back to 1986 on metastock---god, it identified the beginings and tops of bulls beautifully-- at oscillator levels tops and extent of coppock move up for tops, and the lows with a divergence--i want to see if worked on 1980 and 1982 bull--might be great help to us in our next great problem--when to sell!
Operative (04/25/02; 23:07:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74346)
If CNBC had been around from 1927-1933 here is some of the talking heads comments.
1."We will not have any more crashes in
our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
2."I cannot help but raise a dissenting
voice to statements that we are living
in a fool's paradise, and that
prosperity in this country must
necessarily diminish and recede in the
near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New
York Stock Exchange, January 12,
1928
"There will be no interruption of our
permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce
Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
3."No Congress of the United States
ever assembled, on surveying the state
of the Union, has met with a more
pleasing prospect than that which
appears at the present time. In the
domestic field there is tranquility and
contentment...and the highest record
of years of prosperity. In the foreign
field there is peace, the goodwill which
comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
4."There may be a recession in stock
prices, but not anything in the nature
of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist
, New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
5."Stock prices have reached what looks
like a permanently high plateau. I do
not feel there will be soon if ever a 50
or 60 point break from present levels,
such as (bears) have predicted. I
expect to see the stock market a good
deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics,
Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much
effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of
Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago,
October 24, 1929
"There will be no repetition of the
break of yesterday... I have no fear of
another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the
Equitable Trust Company), quoted in
NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall
Street is sound, and that for people
who can afford to pay for them
outright, good stocks are cheap at
these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter
quoted in The New York Times, Friday,
October 25, 1929
6."This is the time to buy stocks. This is
the time to recall the words of the
late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is
bearish on America will go broke.
Within a few days there is likely to be
a bear panic rather than a bull panic.
Many of the low prices as a result of
this hysterical selling are not likely to
be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as
quoted in the New York Herald
Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now
will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in
the New York Herald Tribune,
October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are
now buying stocks... Unless we are to
have a panic -- which no one seriously
believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in
October 1929
7."The decline is in paper values, not in
tangible goods and services...America
is now in the eighth year of prosperity
as commercially defined. The former
great periods of prosperity in America
averaged eleven years. On this basis
we now have three more years to go
before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist
and author), NY Herald Tribune,
November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has now disappeared from
Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2,
1929
"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean
that there will be any general or
serious business depression... For six
years American business has been
diverting a substantial part of its
attention, its energies and its
resources on the speculative game...
Now that irrelevant, alien and
hazardous adventure is over. Business
has come home again, back to its job,
providentially unscathed, sound in wind
and limb, financially stronger than ever
before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that
the slump in stock prices will prove an
intermediate movement and not the
precursor of a business depression
such as would entail prolonged further
liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES),
November 2, 1929
8."... a serious depression seems
improbable; [we expect] recovery of
business next spring, with further
improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929
"The end of the decline of the Stock
Market will probably not be long, only a
few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of
Economics at Yale University,
November 14, 1929
"In most of the cities and towns of
this country, this Wall Street panic
will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block
newspaper chain), editorial, November
15, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to
Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
9."I see nothing in the present situation
that is either menacing or warrants
pessimism... I have every confidence
that there will be a revival of activity
in the spring, and that during this
coming year the country will make
steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of
the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these
measures we have reestablished
confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment
year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's
Forecast, December 1929
10."For the immediate future, at least,
the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in
early 1930
11."...there are indications that the
severest phase of the recession is
over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan
18, 1930
12."There is nothing in the situation to be
disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew
Mellon, Feb 1930
13."The spring of 1930 marks the end of
a period of grave concern...American
business is steadily coming back to a
normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's
National Business Survey Conference,
Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930
14."... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930
15."While the crash only took place six
months ago, I am convinced we have
now passed through the worst -- and
with continued unity of effort we shall
rapidly recover. There has been no
significant bank or industrial failure.
That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the
United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery
forecast in our letters of last
December and November should clearly
be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days
too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a
delegation requesting a public works
program to help speed the recovery,
June 1930
16."... irregular and conflicting movements
of business should soon give way to a
sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930
17."... the present depression has about
spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930
18."We are now near the end of the
declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930
19."Stabilization at [present] levels is
clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931
20."All safe deposit boxes in banks or
financial institutions have been
sealed... and may only be opened in the
presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
Colin J. Seymour, June 2001
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking
20 June 2001
Operative (04/25/02; 22:58:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74345)
Census Economic Briefing Room
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/briefroom/BriefRm
All this talk of recovery, etc
Not seeing it at this link.
Operative (04/25/02; 22:48:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74344)
In Hindsight, this man was Right ON !!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/roffey051601.html
Above link is to an article dated May 15, 2001. The author has proven extremely accurate with his forecast of gold stocks leading the price of gold higher. His article is worth a read, IMHO. (Let's hope with his accuracy, he does not enter the fun and games here at USAGOLD or the rest of us wont have a prayer. <grin> )
TownCrier (04/25/02; 21:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74343)
White Rose -- grey areas and slippery slopes
Your (very legitimate) concerns, summarized:
"I question the strict rules about mentioning [i.e., promoting] gold stocks. ...if I get timely news about gold stocks and their ups and downs may put me in a position to buy more physical. ...The more useful and true information I find here, the more I will ultimately be able to buy here."
Seems true enough. But where do we draw the line when it comes to making the money in which people ultimately diversify some of it into gold?
One of my fondest acquaintances that I was fortunate to meet through this venue is also a good customer of Centennial Precious Metals. For discussion purposes, let's just say that he is a manufacturer of diesel engines. That's how he makes his money. And sure enough, "the more useful and true information" he can find here about metallurgy and thermodynamics as they affect the performance of engines, the more he will ultimately prosper and be able to support our business. But dare we go there?
Another favorite of mine is a singer in a prominant rock band. Should we then delve here into the latest commercial trends in popular music for his money-making benefit?
Some are doctors. Should we also then delve into pharmaceuticals for their better prosperity?
No, probably not.
I think this site is pretty much on target as is -- focusing on the specific fundamental matters of diversification and latest economic developments that may influence the level of diversification that may be in order for your region of the world. Centennial has clients making their primary earnings in all feilds of employment in America, Canada, Europe, and Australia.
The fact that a handful of people here might be using various facets of the gold industry as their money-making avenue does not warrant a special exception. The doctors, rock stars, and captains of industry would surely become bored with the various corporate affairs of gold miners and their industry as an investment in particular.
To be sure, fair game for discussion continues to be their hedging practices as it affects the free market price not only of their current output but also the many existing tonnes that were mined and are now in someone's possession long before these miners were born. Their stock price is largely irrelevant, that is, until perhaps they go bankrupt and cease to add supply to the market.
I hope this helps keep us on track for continuing discussion. Each of the thousands of forums on the internet must fill a unique niche, or else they cease to be of practical relevance -- just another room full of people talking about everything under the sun.
Randy
Gandalf the White (04/25/02; 21:30:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74342)
Thanks T.C. for the LINK !!! <;-)
http://www.shef.ac.uk/~cm1jwb/lotrdvd.htm
TownCrier (04/25/02; 14:03:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74320)
"Howard, its Dermot... there are brains on the floor in here".
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (04/25/02; 21:04:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 74341)
Be careful with that pointy thing... somebody could lose an eye.
Hi. Randy here. Hopefully this act of bravery doesn't backfire by spiralling out of control under a deluge of additional special requests, but Solomon Weaver submitted this chart by e-mail, requesting that I work my online magic to make it appear within the body of today's forum for posterity. What the heck. You only live once, right?
Solomon's comments: "would you consider dropping this one in so it will be preserved for historic purposes? I pulled this down from the INO.com site, but as a link it will update hourly and that beautiful little spike will just slide on by...
Does not today's action look like the common pattern of buying around the world and selling in the USA?"
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (04/25/02; 20:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74340)
The Geyser in London.
What is most significant to me is the sharp pure vertical stair-step up in London to the 308 price level. It's no winding slow "willy nilly" moving up like a sheep in the sun. That's Stair step #1, Crisp and clean. It's wax on a new POG of boots. The squarer the step, the more its "fallback resistance" is. When we see buying in Australia it will be history. They seem to usually be net sellers from my past observations. So let's be a bit happy about our little pop-up spike because it's all we've got, and we're making it work, cuz it's doing it's little job of sparking on the kindling that seems a little wet, but we're all feeling a little bit cold ............ramble, ramble, ramble.
Trapper (04/25/02; 20:11:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 74339)
Slingshot
I have it from one of best sources that something big is in the wind. In the past when new notes were put into use the old ones were just left there and were destroyed as they came into the bank being replaced with new ones. Now think about the counterfeiting ruse...say the gang is making it's own $20.00 1957 series notes and the goverment changes to 1967 type notes, what do we do make new 1967 plates? NO. We still use our old ones as they are still legal notes. This has been bs for a long time, oh it's JUST about counterfeiting. I hear this time we will turn in the old cash. But wait we have gold right, not so fast very soon we will have to furnish ssn for all buys, you must already give your number for 10k sale but it will on everything. Don't belive the hype that collectors coins will be exempt from the records either. All of this is from the terror bills being passed both fed and states. Michigan just passed theirs and the state police can come in at any time without a warrant search even if you are not home and do not have to tell you there were there. Worse gold is going to be considered a terror tool. Oh yes my friend live very small.
RJ
Black Blade (04/25/02; 19:59:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74338)
mikal
I don't know much about the currency story, but if things continue as they are, I would not be surprised to see advertisements for Subway, McDonald's, Nike, etc. or even coupons on any available space on our currency. Cheers!
- Black Blade
slingshot (04/25/02; 19:33:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 74337)
New Funny Money
Colored Red I Presume
The news of this new red colored money has been around for sometime. It is suppose to be in a vault in Texas. How about that. As to its purpose I have heard a few reasons.
That this currency will only be circulated inside the US.
That besides thwarthing counterfeiting it will bring hidden money to the surface as per drug money and cash not reported to the IRS.
More recent is the devaluation factor.
All this to be accomplished within a time frame.
This red money will only appear when thing have really gone bad.
Gold goes to $1000.00 an oz and the government states you have to turn in your green for red. Hmmmm.
Slingshot---------------------<>
mikal (04/25/02; 19:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 74336)
@White Rose
That is very interesting. Also let me thank you, for supporting USAGOLD generously. It just goes to show you that posters such as Jade, if they know the rules, are nonetheless willing to violate them for someone's good. Very understandable. But please resolve the concern you have addressed, when stock information suddenly crosses the line between ordinary and indispensable- who's responsibility is it to decide? MK's, of course, and inside, you knew that all along. Thanks for listening. Mikal
YGM (04/25/02; 19:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74335)
More Positive GATA News.....
http:www.gata.org/
Snipped from Bills Cafe Report this evening.....
Samex CEO Jeff Dahl informs me that the GATA/Samex joint promotion of the real gold story to the Chinese investment community is moving right along. A 30,000 email blast to Chinese investors announcing www.GATAChinese.org went out last Friday and Frank Veneroso's supply/demand analysis went up today:
http://www.gatachinese.org/essay02.html
Chinese investors around the world are being alerted to the real size of the gold loans/swaps and what that means.
Next week the Chinese World Net financial newspaper is doing a front page story on GATA. That will also be read all over the Chinese speaking world. Nice work Jeff.
----------------------------------------------------
**The thought of even a few thousand Chinese buying Physical makes my heart flutter. A few 100 thousand would be
surreal......YGM
mikal (04/25/02; 19:05:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74334)
@Black Blade, Mr. Gresham, Waverider, JGM, etc.
What do you think about the new colored currency story from last week; is it really going to stop counterfeiters? Also do you think it will have a different denomination? Some currency watchers proposed that possibility for the current bills, when they were new- take a peek at the lower right hand corner, backside. They observed: 1) that the different bills' denomination is set-off by itself, outside the traditional border, with very plain numerals and nothing i the background 2) this has never been done in the US before 3) this has been done in other countries that devalued 4) the space could be used for a new imprint.
White Rose (04/25/02; 19:02:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74333)
A modest question about the rules
I love this site and deeply respect the rules. Rules well applied keep this an island of sanity in an internet swamped with klez's, bad vibes, spam, and mis-information.
Yet, I question the strict rules about mentioning gold stocks. What happens to some of the gold stocks is of great interest to many of the participants. I have bought hundreds of oz's of gold from our hosts. I intent to buy thousands more with the proceeds of some of the gold stocks (and some physical silver). Thus, if I get timely news about gold stocks and their ups and downs may put me in a position to buy more physical.
Perhaps we can have some guidelines. We can assume that all the participants have the ability to locate information about which stocks to buy. Anyone contemplating purchases or owning stock can be assumed to be able to track the ups and downs of the stock price. Thus I think any message intending to push a stock or give routine price information should be banned.
But if someone has some genuine information that may not be so obvious, such as a large block sale after-hours, that is worth mentioning, as long as the message stayed strictly to the facts.
The more useful and true information I find here, the more I will ultimately be able to buy here.
mikal (04/25/02; 18:46:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 74332)
@Jade, Re- Posting Rules and Decorum
Please read msg#74323 by the site moderator- Town Crier (Randy)
Mr Gresham (04/25/02; 18:30:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74330)
On the other hand...
...this $2 a day stuff, I could get along with just fine. Where's that old sock I had some quarters stuffed into?
Black Blade (04/25/02; 18:05:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74329)
12 States Join N.Y. Probe of Wall Street
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44183-2002Apr24.html
Prosecutor Spitzer Says He Has Enough Evidence to File Charges Against Merrill
Snippit:
New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer said yesterday that a dozen other states are joining him in an expanded investigation of Wall Street firms' practice of touting stocks of companies that pay them fees.
Black Blade: Every day it's a new accounting scandal, SEC probe, lawsuit, Earnings warning, corporate bankruptcy, etc. Obviously many people will begin to look elsewhere for alternatives for wealth preservation (including Gold).
Black Blade (04/25/02; 17:57:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74328)
Gold shines brighter
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/25/markets/gold/index.htm
Gold price soars to over $308 an ounce on Mideast worries and weaker dollar.
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The price of gold surged to $308.70 an ounce Thursday morning -- its highest level since February 2000, when it touched $319 -- on worries over the situation in the Middle East and continued weakness in the dollar. Gold broke through its long-standing range of resistance between $305 and $308 in early trading although it slipped off its morning high of $309 an ounce. "If it can sustain this, then prices can hit $310 and even $315. But if it doesn't hold $307 it will be a disappointment," a trader said.
Black Blade: I agree, Gold must hold here and build a base to work higher.
Black Blade (04/25/02; 15:03:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74327)
Dollar Hugs Lows, Investors Look Elsewhere
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020425/markets_forex_6.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A chastened dollar sagged to multi-month lows against all major currencies on Thursday, as analysts speculated that investors, once enamored of U.S. assets, now look askance at American markets.
Black Blade: Looks ugly for the US Dollar. The toilet currencies Yen and Euro look surprisingly strong today. The US Dollar could weaken further as many have been surprised that the USD has been as strong as it has. Many others (especially exporters) have been calling for a weaker USD to stimulate the US manufacturing sector and US exports. The effect on Gold is obvious.
YGM (04/25/02; 14:56:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74326)
Cavan Man..
Duplicity, and many other traits inconcievable to western civilizations, I'm afraid. Fact of life and doing business there....Definately a major culture shock above and beyond most other ways of the world....
Black Blade (04/25/02; 14:53:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74325)
Tyco Scraps Breakup Plan, Takes $3.3 Billion in Costs, Fires 7100
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APMflFhTuVHljbyBT
Snippit:
Exeter, New Hampshire, April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Tyco International Ltd. dropped plans to split into four companies and had $3.3 billion in costs after the conglomerate's shares tumbled 44 percent since the proposal was unveiled in January. The company will eliminate 7,100 jobs, close 24 facilities and take a $2.4 billion writedown of the value of its undersea telecommunications network. Full-year profit forecasts were slashed. The stock fell 14 percent in early trading.
Black Blade: The smaller version of GE is in deep trouble and now 7,100 are shipped off to the growing "Bone Pile". Not much of an economic recovery. Also, JDS Uniphase just announced that they will fire over 2,000 people – more to go to the growing "Bone Pile".
YGM (04/25/02; 14:48:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74324)
GATA ..E-Mail......
By Thom Calandra
CBS.MarketWatch.com
April 25, 2002
SAN FRANCISCO -- Gold's spot price approached $310
Thursday for the first time since Oct. 22, 1999, confirming
what observers say is a sustained rally for the precious
metal.
The metal's rise, up $4.20 to $308 an ounce, came as the
euro gained to almost 90 cents on the dollar and the yen
rose almost 1 percent against the greenback. The metal,
which traded around $270 in January, is reflecting Middle
Eastern turmoil, a visit by the Saudi king to Texas, and
the U.S. stock market's decline below what technicians
say are support levels.
"We're in the second stage of a raging market for gold,
and eventually silver and palladium will follow," said
James Dines, editor of The Dines Letter, an advisory
service that covers mining companies.
Investors' shift to gold and other mining companies
comes as the stock market whips once-mighty issues
like Tyco International (TYC), IBM (IBM) , AOL Time
Warner, and General Electric (GE). On Thursday
morning, Tyco saw $9 billion of market capitalization
vanish after the ailing conglomerate abandoned its
break-up plan. The move by Tyco led one market
trader, whose name will stay safely anonymous, to
label the company "psycho Tyco."
Robert Bishop, longtime editor of The Gold Mining
Stock Report, said spot gold's price of $305 was a
so-called resistance level for wary investors who
preferred to believe their beloved NYSE and
Nasdaq stocks would stage a comeback. If gold
holds its gains above $305, Bishop expects the price
to rise another $50 to $60 an ounce in the coming year,
and perhaps more.
At the same time, he says, gold-related equities are
trading at prices that suggest far higher levels for the
metal. "Gold's persistent stay north of $300 suggests
that the next stage of the gold market is fast coming into
view," Bishop says. Most Main Street and Wall Street
investors, he says, are still "much more interested in
seeing their Dow and Nasdaq-heavy portfolios
restored to some measure of their former selves."
Of course, that won't happen anytime soon.
Pravin Banker said gold will continue to benefit from
a growing disgust with mainstream securities and
sloppy interest-rate guidance by the Federal Reserve.
Banker, principal of LDC Bond Watch and The Financial
Network Inc in Connecticut, accurately forecast Tyco's
debt woes, IBM's accounting snafus and other red flares
among blue-chip companies.
"For 6 years now, lured by the Rubin-inspired strong
dollar policy, foreigners have forsaken gold for the safety
of dollars and faith in that Der Alte Greenspan, its guardian,"
Banker said Thursday about Robert Rubin and Alan
Greenspan. "Enron has revealed the ugly side of
manipulation and collusion, and the risks inherent in
unserviceable debt burdens, Tyco the last straw. Asian
faith is shaken. They are reverting back to their age old
haven, and tempting U.S. institutions to follow in their
wake, and buy gold."
For investors, gold's latest rally has lifted gold equity
indexes across the globe, none more so than in South
Africa. With a market cap of $6 billion, Gold Fields Ltd.
(GOLD) is that nation's most richly valued bullion miner,
surpassing longtime heavyweight Anglogold (AU). Gold
Fields, its production entirely unhedged against the
possibility of the metal's decline, has built its 85 million
ounces of gold reserves through the rapid -- and
cheap -- purchase of mines in Africa and Australia.
Gold's rally leaves many large and small investors
searching for mining companies whose shares look
reasonably valued. Trouble is, as newsletter editor
Bishop points out, many established gold names
trade at levels that almost demand a gold price that
is at least 15 percent greater that the current price. In
this year's first quarter, gold-based mutual funds,
many of them up 40-plus percent, made up 18 of the
top 20 spots for domestic funds in the three-month span.
Bob Bishop's Recomendations omitted...YGM.
Dines, who tracks low-priced mining stocks, says America's
brokerage and research houses "are still sniffing in the
empty mouse holes of Microsoft and AT&T. Meanwhile,
this is the biggest gold rally of the past 20 years."
Dines, whose model stock portfolio was one of the first
quarter's top 10 performers for the 165 newsletters tracked
by Hulbert Financial Digest, says investors would do well to
buy silver miners at this stage.
"You cannot get a raging bull market in gold without
dragging the silvers higher," Dines said Thursday. "Silver
is the poor man's gold; it is not just an industrial metal.
Silver will be dragged higher from $4.60 an ounce as
people look for the cheap stocks to buy."
Dines & Bishops Recomendations ommitted by myself per forum guidelines.YGM
-END-
TownCrier (04/25/02; 14:37:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74323)
Jon
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
Until the day that Durban Roodepoort Deep (or any other that you might name by ticker) makes a known contribution to support the bottom line of Centennial Precious Metals, it is probably in poor form for any of us to use this particular space for such tacit promotional purposes beyond the spirit of the guidelines here.
Fair enough?
R.
TownCrier (04/25/02; 14:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 74322)
HEADLINE: Safe-haven gold hits new bull market highs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020425/markets_newyork_gold_1.html
As noted earlier, the media seems to have finally rid itself, to a large extent, of its former mantle of anti-gold sentiment. The views (and buying power) of the general public shouldn't be too far behind.
------
Excerpts:
NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Gold futures rallied to new highs in New York on Thursday and the spot metal sparkled after touching a 26-month peak in London, as a tumbling dollar and anxiety about the Middle East fanned a flight to quality and perhaps snapped a 20-year bear market in the precious metal.
...``Even if you take out today's move, gold has been hanging above $300,'' said Amaury Conti, a stock trader at U.S. Global Investors. ``Not that $300 is a huge number, but it is psychologically important. When you look where gold is now, versus, where it's been in the past it still has a lot of room to go to make up for the last 15 years or so.''
...Many analysts say gold could reach $330-$350 in 2002.
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And nary a spatter of mud was anywhere to be seen.
R.
Jon (04/25/02; 14:24:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74321)
Cavan Man, CoBra[too]
Cavan re: your #74316 -what does Mahendra Sharma say?
CoBra[too] - your closing price for Drooy tomorrow?
TownCrier (04/25/02; 14:03:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74320)
"Howard, its Dermot... there are brains on the floor in here".
http://www.shef.ac.uk/~cm1jwb/lotrdvd.htm
Some days are like that, aren't they?
Inspiration for Strad Master and the other talent among us.
R.
Black Blade (04/25/02; 13:45:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74319)
The Wall Street Pump and Prime
http://www.mrci.com/qpday.asp
We have come into the last half hour of market trading and surprise, the market indices are going positive with an all out effort to keep the DOW above 10,000, and NASDAQ above 1700. All this in spite of horrific news at every turn. Strange indeed.
Oil is moving higher and NG is sharply lower. Duel fuel facilities will switch to lower priced NG. The Saudis have restated that they will keep the Oil weapon as an option because it is "the will of the people". "Interesting Times"
- Black Blade
Cavan Man (04/25/02; 13:23:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74318)
@YGM
Duplicity: a hallmark, yes?
YGM (04/25/02; 12:49:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74317)
Will Saudis Close The Oil Valves......What to Believe!
From Apr 24 Debka File...
Excerpt...
On Tuesday, April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall developing on the world market.
Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally, after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical plant in the kingdom.
But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets.
"Already the Saudis are operating on two levels – one reassuring Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground. The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first."
**The entire Apr 24 file report is rather disturbing to say the least....YGM.
Cavan Man (04/25/02; 12:44:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74316)
@Marke Talk
OOPS!
Thursday April 25, 21:02 PM
Planet line-up heralds tough time-Indian astrologer
BANGALORE, India (Reuters) - A prominent Indian astrologer who predicted a grim tragedy for the United States eight months before the September 11 attacks says the world faces tough times in coming months.
The prediction is linked to a rare grouping of five planets in a single house in celestial charts on May 13 and 14, Gayatri Devi Vasudev, editor of the monthly Astrological Magazine, said in the May issue.
"On the day of the combination itself, no dire calamity will befall the world. But the months of May and June 2002 will not be peaceful for the world," Gayatri Devi wrote.
"The United States may face major setbacks in its war against terrorism though it may succeed with a major terrorist catch," she says. Other hazards the United States could face included terrorist threats and an earthquake, she said.
Until early June the five planets -- Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn -- can be seen with the naked eye as they move into a rough grouping on the same, visible, side of the sun, something that happens only once a century.
Gayatri Devi, who calls astrology a science, says the charts only indicate trends that can be countered by "faith in God and in the inherent divinity of fellow humans".
She says the combination was also significant for India.
"The Indian government may get caught in complex developments threatening its very life but due to the inbuilt strength of its horoscope, the worst may be staved off," she said.
The Hindu nationalist-led coalition government already faces stiff criticism over its failure to end religious violence in Gujarat state where more than 850 people, most of them Muslims, have been killed since late February.
Gayatri Devi also said a Mars-Saturn conjunction on May 4 in Taurus "may have the effect of stimulating a wild aggression by Pakistan on the Indian borders".
India and Pakistan have been locked in a military standoff since an attack on the Indian parliament in December that India blamed on Pakistan-based guerrillas fighting its rule in disputed Kashmir.
She said Pakistan's military ruler General Pervez Musharraf may be in an "unresolvable situation" that could lead to his exit.
Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999, is seeking five more years in office through a controversial referendum on April 30. He said earlier this week he would not stay in power against the wishes of voters.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cavan Man (04/25/02; 12:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 74315)
@Marke Talk
From another......
YGM (04/25/02; 12:18:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74314)
Can it get Worse!
It Is!...Not to Mention Jordinian Border......
Excerpt...
The New York Times
Saudi to Warn Bush of Rupture Over Israel Policy
Thu Apr 25, 8:56 AM ET
By PATRICK E. TYLER The New York Times
HOUSTON, April 24 Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is expected to tell President Bush (news - web sites) in stark terms at their meeting on Thursday that the strategic relationship between their two countries will be threatened if Mr. Bush does not moderate his support for Israel's military policies, a person familiar with the Saudi's thinking said today.
Reuters
Mideast Conflict
In a bleak assessment, he said there was talk within the Saudi royal family and in Arab capitals of using the "oil weapon" against the United States, and demanding that the United States leave strategic military bases in the region.
Such measures, he said, would be a "strategic debacle for the United States."
He also warned of a general drift by Arab leaders toward the radical politics that have been building in the Arab street.
The Saudi message contained undeniable brinkmanship intended to put pressure on Mr. Bush to take a much larger political gamble by imposing a peace settlement on Israelis and Palestinians.
But the Saudi delegation also brought a strong sense of the alarm and crisis that have been heard in Arab capitals.
"It is a mistake to think that our people will not do what is necessary to survive," the person close to the crown prince said,
"and if that means we move to the right of bin Laden, so be it; to the left of Qaddafi, so be it; or fly to Baghdad and embrace Saddam like a brother, so be it."
It's damned lonely in our part of the world, and we can no longer defend our relationship to our people."
Whatever the possibility of bluster, it is also clear that Abdullah represents not just Saudi Arabia but also the broader voice of the Arab world, symbolized by the peace plan he submitted and that was endorsed at an Arab summit meeting in March.
YGM (04/25/02; 12:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74313)
This Statement Has to Be Effecting Gold Price..
EGYPT WANTS CASH TO WAR W/ ISRAEL...
Egypt ready to wage war on Israel ... for $US100 billion
April 25 2002
Egyptian Prime Minister Atef Ebeid said his country would go to war with Israel if Arab countries stumped up $US100 billion ($A186.32 billion) to pay for the confrontation, in an interview published yesterday.
"If you want to undertake an action and be ready to face up to challenges, you need at least $100 billion," he told the Abu Dhabi Government's Al-Ittihad newspaper when asked why Egypt had taken no measures against Israel's military offensive against the Palestinians.
"I told you we want $100 billion," he repeated in response to a question why Cairo had not expelled Israel's ambassador to Egypt.
"Let the Arab world give $100 billion from Arab funds deposited around the world. Let it say to Egypt: 'This is a budget for confrontation. This budget is at your disposal. Undertake confrontation,' " he said.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak accused Israel yesterday of going "beyond all limits" with its military actions in the West Bank, particularly in Bethlehem and Jenin.
Egypt became the first Arab country to make peace with Israel and signed a treaty in 1979. Protesters in Egypt have frequently called for cutting diplomatic ties with Israel and expelling the Israeli ambassador.
AFP
Old Yeller (04/25/02; 11:55:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74312)
The latest on Argentina,questioning the IMF
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=574&574&e=3&u=/nm/20020424/wl_nm/argentina_dc_118
It's about time, maybe they should also ask them why Turkey gets boatloads of largesse,while O'Neill sticks pins in his Argentina voodoo doll.
A bakery doubling as a temporary bank,that's fitting.Maybe the Fed should investigate this option,they seem so accomplished at adding a little yeast and puffing up the world's currency.Meanwhile, adeptly using the big rolling pin to squash the malleable former holder of that role.
YGM (04/25/02; 11:53:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 74311)
June 02 $308.70 (on paper)
Some Fight Goin On......
Paper pushers battling Physical demand...I'd love to watch the trading floors tomorrow....Might just compare to Ali (Gold) beating the crap out of Tyson (Paper) To bad we'll never get to see the latter. Well let the bell ring and every day we get a rematch. My bet's on the Gold Paperwieght!
YGM (04/25/02; 11:39:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 74310)
A Glaring Difference in Latest Gold Chart Uptrend....
Since Apr. /01
The previous 3 uptrends since Apr/01 have been 7 to 10 days in the making. his latest one started +/- May 18th and we are at Apr 25th and still going strong. IMO this portends a new reality for a Gold Bull!....YGM
Gandalf the White (04/25/02; 11:23:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74309)
Thanks Sir Andúril for keeping us on the "True Trail" !!!
and all should know that SIR MK is thinking about the next Contest and welcomes all suggestions (within reason) !!
<;-)
Old Yeller (04/25/02; 11:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74308)
Central banks and asset inflation
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1087225
The Economist comments on where those who should know better may have erred.They make it appear as if increasing interest rates is the only option available.
I remember an unabashed technology stock shill(goes by the name of Alan Greenspan)pounding the bongos at the height of the mania.
Didn't have a thing to do with interest rates,now did it?
Put away the kid gloves,Economist,we know where the blame lies.
Andúril (04/25/02; 10:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 74307)
Do not lose sight of the ball, Mr. Gresham
There is no price limit up for the physical trade. Your limits apply to COMEX guessing contracts... they may lose credibility as a result?! Expect price divergence as metal rises and contracts fall limit DOWN, maybe? Own the metal and do not let your heart be troubled.
Gandalf the White (04/25/02; 10:39:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74306)
Sir Hoople's SPIKE Date
LOVE IT !
The "Why" is a classic thought.
Poor "Rukie", I can see his face now.
<;-)
YGM (04/25/02; 10:35:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74305)
MK....
USAGOLD (04/25/02; 09:29:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74299)
Thanks for the 'Very' understandable overview. Sometimes us Dwarf Hobbits get lost in the words of Giants.....Let us hope this movement is steady and steadfast. The $50.00 spike of Sept/Oct /99 was short lived, contrary to popular belief/expectations at the time. Hopefully circumstances and the times are diffent now...My raw Gold Dory Bars like others Coins and Bullion represent our and our families futures, and they're getting shinier by the week....YGM.
The Hoople (04/25/02; 10:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74304)
Mr. Gresham , Gandalf re: spike day
#### Tuesday, April 30 ####
I realize it isn't an official contest yet but I thought I would beat the rush. Hell, if it is Tuesday I'll personally donate a Rooster or Sovereign to the runner-up. Should a reason be needed for why that day will be spike day I would say I hear a loud ticking noise (did Rukeyser get a pacemaker?) in the form of all indexes perched precariously on breakdown/breakout numbers , declining M-3 similar to early September and a "prison of the gold shorts" that can't hold any longer. I am told $75 is Comex limit, would that be the criteria? Spike's collar is choking him, he is going to tear into the fiat's ---es very soon.
RobotGuy (04/25/02; 10:24:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74303)
Sorry - - - A boiler is likely the cause of the explosion
RobotGuy (04/25/02; 10:22:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74302)
Explosion in Manhattan
There are breaking stories of an explosion in a technical facility in Manhattan. Initial reports say that the explosion is likely the cause of the explosion. There are currently 100 firemen present at the scene which is cordoned off.
RobotGuy.
Pippin (04/25/02; 09:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74301)
Viacom posts 1,1 Billion loss
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46904-2002Apr25.html
Quote
Viacom Inc., the media conglomerate that owns CBS and MTV, posted a $1.11 billion net loss for its first quarter Thursday due to an accounting writedown at its Blockbuster video rental unit. Without the charge, earnings were better than analysts had been expecting, and Viacom executives said they were optimistic about a turnaround in advertising.
The $1.48 billion charge reflects a writedown of goodwill at Blockbuster, which is 81 percent owned by Viacom. New accounting rules require companies to periodically test whether the goodwill, or the premium they paid to acquire a company, has lost value. Viacom bought Blockbuster in 1994.
The net loss at Viacom, which also owns the Paramount movie studio and the Simon & Schuster publishing house, was equivalent to 63 cents a share and compared with a net loss of $7.3 million or zero cents a share in the same period a year ago.
Without the effect of the Blockbuster writedown, Viacom had earnings of $367.4 million or 21 cents a share, well above the 16 cents a share that analysts polled by Thomson Financial/First Call had been expecting.
Viacom said it doesn't expect to take any other writedowns of goodwill related to the new accounting standard, which is known as FAS 142. That means that it won't write down the value of its acquisition of CBS, which was announced in 1999.
Viacom's overall revenues fell 1 percent to $5.67 billion from $5.75 billion in the same period a year ago as a slowdown in advertising continued to hold back the company's advertising-driven businesses such as radio and TV. Viacom relies on advertising for about half of its revenues.
Earnings before taxes, interest payments, depreciation and amortization fell 5 percent to $1.09 billion from $1.15 billion a year ago. That measure, known as EBITDA, is closely followed by investors.
Revenues and earnings slumped in two of the company's major business segments, television and radio, but results were flat to up in video and entertainment. Cable networks, a key business area that includes MTV, VH1 and Nickelodeon, had a 12 percent rise in pretax earnings on a 5 percent increase in revenue.
Viacom executives, speaking to investors on a conference call, said they were optimistic that they had hit the bottom of the current advertising cycle and that the market was likely to improve in the second quarter.
"This clearly was a tough quarter, but we really think we see the light at the end of the tunnel," Rich Bressler, Viacom's chief financial officer, said on the call.
Mel Karmazin, the company's president and chief operating officer, said the company was seeing price increases of 10 to 15 percent in television advertising prices in the second quarter compared to a year ago. "We are encouraged by indications of improvement across all of our businesses," Karmazin said in a statement.
Viacom's shares were off 41 cents at $49.78 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchan
UnQuote
PH in LA (04/25/02; 09:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74300)
Keepin' an eye on the trail!
"For just this little moment in time it appears that the free market price of gold is returning...could that be??? It would be nice to see again in my lifetime." nickel62 (04/25/02; 07:11:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74292)
Please, Nickel! Let's not err on the side of moderation, either. Instead, how about pausing for a quick look around the trail as seen from the long view... maybe from the air.
Think back to the dark days around ±$250 when there was no end in sight... no light at the end of the tunnel... When we all were thinking $235 or worse. Now we have $310 in our sights after a series of small surges that never gotten taken back.
FOA was right. Higher prices ARE coming. In fact they're here.
But that doesn't mean that the forces in command have thrown in the towel. Maybe they are doing exactly what they intended to do all along. Exactly what FOA told us they would do.
They're taking prices higher. $5.00 at a time. Two steps forward, one step back. We don't have to tremble any more that they'll be pulling the plug anytime soon and send us plunging back to $250 again.
We're on the road, now. But we've been on it so long that it's easy to forget how far we've come.
But don't worry! There's plenty of trip left on the map.
USAGOLD (04/25/02; 09:29:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74299)
Analysis: What's Behind the Current Market Action
http://www.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-9785638-0.html?tag=ats
This Reuters report (linked above) summarizes well what is happening in the gold market this morning. It emphasizes that the move this morning is dollar related. The greenback is tumbling against the major currencies. Gold is strong.
"A cheaper dollar makes dollar-denominated bullion more attractive for European and other non-U.S. investors. 'The dollar has been sliding all day and this has simply triggered stop-loss buying all the way up,' one trader said. When the dollar is weak, international equity markets brittle and even bonds don't offer complete protection in a volatile world, gold is seen to offer a safe home for investors."
Though I can't verify it, the market action across the boards (strong gold, oil, currencies/weak dollar, equity markets) points to the probablility that the United States and the Bush administration have been pushing for a cheaper dollar behind the scenes. Since the decision to devalue a currency no longer rests with the issuing country, but with the "Group," Bush would need to have gotten tacit approval from the other countries in G-7 to move forward. Is that what happened at the recent international economic meetings? What were all those central bankers beaming nervously about at the photo ops?) It may be. It is because currency decisions since 1971 are done by committee that I refer to any dollar devaluation as 'de facto' as opposed to 'de jure.' For a very long time, the United States has been a chief export market for the other major industrialized countries due to the strong dollar policy we've talked so much about. Now, it seems that the Bush administraion, the election of which was largely financed by the 'old economy', has persuaded our trading partners that a de facto devaluation of the dollar is in the international trading community's best interest. No one wants to kill the golden goose (also known as the American consumer). That can only happen if some sort of artifical balance is maintained -- and that means rebuilding the capital base of the market to which you would like to expert.
Related: Also, do not underestimate the impact of the AOL-Warner massive loss reported yesterday. The financial pages this morning attribute the loss to "changes in the accounting rules." This has implications up and down the line for corporate American at a time that the country is experiencing a second wave in the Recession. This is going to cripple an already reeling stock market and create even more pressure from the major American industrial corporations to devalue the dollar. This is what I believe the market is reading in the economy this morning and translating to the markets.
The statement featured above is telling. In the fiat money economic cycle, it seems we have certain time-frames which favor different investments. Increasingly the world's investors are beginning to vote with their checkbooks. They are saying now is the time for gold. Internationally, we have had strong capital movement into gold already and the demand could get even stronger, as we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg here as to what massive dollar availability could do for gold demand and dollar pricing (Thanks Belgian and Aristotle). The shorts had better cover. This is their worst nightmare. Huge international gold demand from private citizens that cannot be controlled at the bullion bank trading desks (though I am certain they won't cave-in without a major fight). The fact that this is happening when certain bullion banks have pulled out the stops to keep gold below the $305 strike price in London by expiration tomorrow tells you that their grip is slipping. Even if they succeed in driving gold back down today and tomorrow (which is up in the air), Monday and Tuesday potentially could turn out to be big days for the gold market. As many old-time gold experts have already said: This market has a different feel. (Congratulations are in order for those who bought early. We had very strong sales in the $260 to $280 area. You were right!!)
Please don't take any of this as trading advice, and if you do trade on it, do so at your own peril. I could easily be wrong on this. Those who buy the physical metal as safe-haven portfolio insurance would be well served to increase their holdings now. What I describe above is a plausible scenario that calls for ownership of the hard metal. It could get ugly as the new economy's sins cry for retribution.
I won't be doing a report at the News & Views page today.
Henri (04/25/02; 09:17:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74298)
On the practical side
OK, given the fact that the go'mint wants a piece of any profit we derive from trading physical gold in the form of capital gains, and in expectation that a sharp rise in POG will be synchronized with a plunge in US $ value, the true capital gain for tax purposes should be offset by the amount of fiat currency inflation. Tax should then be offered to Ceasar only upon the difference. A penalty claimed upon such taxing authority for either engineered collapse or just plain inept management of the value of our beloved FRN.
For this, we need a different measure or indicator of relative value that is unrelated to gold or the US dollar. My first cut at this is to think in terms of foreign Oil as oz/barrel. This presupposes that domestic oil will be subsidized interfering with a fair valuation.
Here is how to calc your taxable profit on physical gold trading. If you paid an average of $300/oz of gold in the last year and the average POO was $20/barrel then your cost basis for the gold was 15 barrels of ME oil.
When you get ready to sell gold at $10,000/oz, ME oil is $75/barrel. the dollar value of your cost basis is now $1,125/oz rather than $300/oz. Your net is $8,875 which would be taxable for capital gain. (perhaps a barrel of ME crude cannot be obtained then for any amount of money then...only gold itself. This would make the calculation easier. oz/barrel at time of sale - oz/barrel basis. Any thoughts?
Mr Gresham (04/25/02; 08:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74297)
Gandalf: Contest idea?
How about a "Spike Day" guessing contest? Whoever gets the closest to the first LimitUp, or $50, or whatever (passes WA Spike high?) day -- now somewhere on our horizon.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (04/25/02; 08:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74296)
The 1877 $20s offered online have already SOLD OUT. Click for details on these MS61 $10s.
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
