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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/25/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Operative (11/25/02; 23:54:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 90316)
@ Sirs: Gandalf and Old Yellow
Great link to the gold chart, many thanks. Can either of you do a similar workup of a chart on the CRB? Would love to compare the two as I feel having both would give a closeup and a "wide range" view of comparison.

Operative (11/25/02; 23:46:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 90315)
@ Liberty Head
"5. There are few signs of outrage amongst the citizenry."

Couple months ago I recieved the property tax from the county on my small farm. It had an increase greater than 31% over the past year. Did you copy that? Greater than 31% over last year!! A few citizens, myself included, filed protests in writing. The talk around town is just that, talk. Few, very few are protesting this incredible increase in thier tax bill. One person has filed a lawsuit and because of that the new tax bill I just recieved says I have two choices, pay the new tax, pay last year tax and wait to see what happens when the county commissioners "review" the complaints of anyone who filed a protest in writing. All others,the vast majority who did nothing, just have to pay the tax increase. What are they thinking?? Wait, I think I just answered my own question. Thinking....lolololol.

I concur with your opinion, it will get much, much, worse before things ever get better in this country. I see a lot of suffering coming down. Gold, food, meds, and like Trapper says, Live small. As in get off the trail and fade into the jungle.

Operative (11/25/02; 23:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 90314)
Trade Grain For New Jeep In Argentina
From a story on AgWeb.com

"Now that's bad shape. Today's Wall Street Journal has an interesting article
about how bad things are economically in Argentina. Imagine pulling into you
local dealer with a semi load or two of corn or soybeans and driving off in a brand
new car. If you were a farmer in Argentina, that's what you could do. Daimler
Chrysler is among the latest to adopt this form of barter, although they're
dubbing it the "Grain Plan." Goes to show that Argentina is still mired in
economic morass. "

Interesting read. Autodealer rather have grain than the local FIAT currency. Sign of the times yet to come?


Black Blade (11/25/02; 22:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 90313)
Re: goldquest and RobotGuy

Goldquest – actually some of the nicest jewelry pieces that I have seen are 24K (Hong Kong, Myanmar and Thailand). Throughout the rest of Asia 22K seems to be most common. The point of western jewelers selling low karat gold is to sell the "idea" of craftsmanship over gold value. I have a couple of 24K rings and 24K18" chain. I had a few jewelers try that "too soft" act with me and then I would spring a sample on them. They would just mumble something about "craftsmanship" and then hope I would just go away. Quite funny actually. Still, if they can get away with selling low value jewelry for top quality prices and get way with it, then it generates obscene profits for something of little value. It would be best to sell high quality – high value pieces in order to give a "gold standard" to jewelry. But 10K to 14K gold? What are these people thinking? Gimme a break!

RobotGuy – yes, it is very bad when the vendor sells crap as gold of a particular purity when it is just nothing but pot metal crap with a smidgen of gold added. At the very least it is fraud, but the law should aggressively treat it as such. Maybe the authorities will follow up on this and the allegations concerning the sterling silver quality problems. Hopefully states department of weights and measures with their attorney generals with pick up the ball to restore confidence among consumers.

Cheers!

- Black Blade


Liberty Head (11/25/02; 22:35:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 90312)
Guaranty

Facts are like puzzle pieces. You have to put them together in a certain way before the bigger picture is truly revealed.
Here are some facts to consider:
1. The Federal Reserve is promoting increased consumer spending as a solution to our current state of the economy.
2. The Federal Reserve has also cited government spending as a cause of our market woes.
3. The government has lost much revenue from the market slowdown. Many state governments are pursuing tax increases.
4. No government entities are considering spending reductions.
5. There are few signs of outrage amongst the citizenry.

Conclusion: Things are going to get much worse before they get better. Guaranteed.

Buy Gold, food, shelter and Jeff Beck CD's, "Loose Cannon" from the "You Had It Comming" CD gets my nomination for best ME war soundtrack.

Cheers



goldquest (11/25/02; 22:03:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 90311)
CBS Expose' on 10K Gold
I watched Dan "Blathers" spiel on the gold scam and I am wondering what the real purpose of this piece is really all about. Are they preping us for future government regulations and control of the gold industry, for, "our own good?" Just a few weeks ago, the talk was about phony sterling silver. I felt that this had some legitimacy to it. All of a sudden, we have a major news story about 10k gold and the big ripoff of JSP.
In the jewelry community, they rate the quality of gold as:
24 karat=pure gold
Too soft for jewelry

22 karat=91.7% gold
Very soft-not recommended for jewelry

18 karat=75% gold
Recommended for fine jewelry

14 karat=58.3% gold
Acceptable for jewelry

12 karat=50.0% gold
Not acceptable for jewelry

10 karat=41.7% gold
The legal karat limit considered as real gold in the U S. I guess my question is: If 12 karat gold is not acceptable for jewelry, what is the big deal about 10 karat or below? I think the real problem is that people are not aware of the amount of gold in the jewelry and because of their lack of knowledge, they are probably being taken advantage of.


RobotGuy (11/25/02; 21:26:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 90310)
Ummm,.. Hmmmm,.. Are we allowed to print this boss??
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/25/politics/25CND-STAT.html?ex=1038891600&en=261c7e82f2891669&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 25 — Plunging tax collections and soaring medical costs have created the worst fiscal problems for states since World War II, the National Governors Association said today.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

RobotGuy, I'm surprised this one was printed. - - - Just a little glimpse of how marvelous things really are.

RobotGuy (11/25/02; 21:05:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 90309)
BB "Fools Gold"

This type of activity should be dealt with in a severe fashion, after all,.. it is theft. These types of things are those which tarnish an otherwise untarnishable metal. I am afraid of buying gold jewellery after reading articles like that, and I know that I'm not the only individual who feels this way. Those b@st@rds are robbing people blind, and not being reprimanded for it. Once the media capitalises on such truths, public demand for those products go down the tubes regardless of their authenticity. Such a disservice to such a noble metal.

Cheers

RobotGuy.

Gandalf the White (11/25/02; 20:22:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 90308)
THANK YOU, Sir Old Yellow !!
http://www.capitalstool.com/yabbse/attachments/gold_3.gif
Old Yeller (11/25/02; 15:55:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 90291)
===
I am reading the charts a little SOONER than your date !
BUT, the same result occurs !!
GOLDEN Dreams and THANKS.
<;-)



sector (11/25/02; 20:13:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 90307)
@Sierra Madre If the central banks are unhealthy ...
What about THEIR banker?
The Bank of International Settlements.

One way to guage the overall health of central banks is to look at THEIR piggy bank.

Stay tuned.

Cavan Man (11/25/02; 19:42:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 90306)
silvercollector
I read it. He/they mean business. We are going to have to clear the country as best we can and close the borders until we get a better hand on matters IMHO. Too many are entering the country (prospective OBL operatives) each day. There is little, effective control.



Cavan Man (11/25/02; 19:39:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 90305)
Jim Sinclair's Dinar THOUGHTS
I am noting certain parallels with a one Sir "Douglas".

silvercollector (11/25/02; 19:39:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 90304)
OBL 'letter'
Just went through the last 2 days postings, no mention of this letter. Weird.

OBL or not, the letter defines chilling, sobering. After the apparent non-fabricated tape this sends more shock waves.

silvercollector (11/25/02; 19:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 90303)
Bin Laden's letter
http://www.observer.co.uk/worldview/story/0,11581,845725,00.html
Sorry if already posted.

Black Blade (11/25/02; 18:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 90302)
Don't Get Stuck With Fool's Gold
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/11/25/eveningnews/main530708.shtml

Snippit:

(CBS) Before you go for the gold this holiday season, you should know what you're paying for. A CBS News investigation found that a high percentage of gold jewelry, especially 10-karat charms, aren't 10 karat at all. It's called under-karating. We went undercover shopping at mom and pop stores and big name retailers. Of the 25 pieces we bought, nearly a third didn't meet the gold standard, which doesn't come as a real surprise to jewelry watchdog groups, reports CBS News Correspondent Cynthia Bowers. "Every time a consumer buys one of these little charms and some of the gold is missing, a consumer's had his pockets picked," said Cecilia Gardner, who heads the Jewelers Vigilance Committee. "Much of what was being sold as 10-K gold was not in fact 10-K gold," said New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. Spitzer recently netted 24 jewelry companies defrauding, primarily, lower income shoppers.

Black Blade: The link carries the story from CBC. Check out the selection at the "castle" and avoid the crud being passed off as gold.



R Powell (11/25/02; 18:41:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 90301)
Why is the dollar rising??
I don't know but I can pass on a thought about this...

"Although the dollar has changed course, the shift in the dollar's long-term trend has not yet been fully recognized by most market participants. For instance, during the 1995-2000 bullish dollar regime, policies that were designed to boost U.S. growth were generally perceived to be bullish for the dollar. Hence, market participants would view a Fed. interest rate cut as being bullish for the dollar. Although many market participants continue to operate under that assumption, it may no longer be valid in today's bearish dollar regime. U.S. growth prospects have clearly faded in the past couple of years and U.S. interest rates have fallen to such low levels that further rate cuts might not have much impact on U.S. growth prospects."
prepared by Deutsche Bank AG
Foreign Exchange Research Dept.

I guess they're saying that the market players THINK the lowering of rates will boost the economy, stock prices and, therefor, the strength of the dollar.
Fleckenstein, when asked about the rate cuts opined that it wasn't rate hikes that initially caused the problem (bubble) and that rate cuts wouldn't solve the problem. Not everyone agrees.

I agree that rates this low ought to hurt more than help but apparently those of us holding this opinion are not a majority.
The bulls are cheering....
"What do you mean Alan has not saved the day with this latest rate cut?? Why stocks are once again flying and happy days and blue skies are back again!"
Perhaps the bear has filled his belly for now and is taking a little snooze. He's usually nasty and hungry when he awakens!
Rich


ElGordo (11/25/02; 17:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 90300)
States face huge deficits
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/US/reuters20021125_492.html
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sunk in the worst financial doldrums since World War II, states face a possible collective budget shortfall of $40 billion by the end of the fiscal year, the National Governors Association said on Monday.

Nor is the picture any brighter as new governors elected just weeks ago start turning to 2004 spending plans, since underlying problems are likely to cripple state budgets even if the sour economy turns around.

"My sense is probably we have a shortfall at least of $40 billion now," NGA director Ray Scheppach told a news briefing, saying states were likely to cut support for higher education and health care and to raise taxes on corporation and individual incomes to make ends meet.
______________
Truckers and other unions in France are going to strike. The socialists did this the last time a conservative guv won an
election. They brought down Juppe and now will try and bring
down Chirac. France will hurt EU economy big time.

Euro will weaken from all this. US Dollar looks to strengthen
for a while, our economy looks strongest now.

With a long weekend coming gold shorts will cover on Wed.
Nobody will want to be short gold over a long weekend.
Too much could happen geopolitically with terrorism potential.
Look for a PM rally on Wed.


Black Blade (11/25/02; 17:38:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 90299)
Gold Jewelry Scam Exposed

I just saw the piece on under Karat gold pieces on CBS. Essentially it dealt with 10K pieces that are a lot less. Acutually this is not gold, but junk metal with a little gold mixed in. NY Attorney General Spitzer was interviewed and he has busted 24 dealers in the NY area. I would hope that the heat is kept on these criminals who perpetuate these scams. Hopefully the name "gold" will be legally applied only to high Karat jewelry with severe penalties. In many parts of the world 18K is the lowest that can be found with 24K jewelry in Asia. Unfortunately the people of western nations are gullible and fall for the claims about substandard gold. Still it was an interesting segment.

- Black Blade

silvercollector (11/25/02; 17:32:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 90298)
The Hoople, GoldnSilver2002
Yes the three "revolting developments" are accelerating. Why is the dollar rising? It seems that the world is anticipating economic unease in Europe and thus America (at least short term) will be the best of the worst.

Other than economic parameters are 'they' judging anything else in their evaluation of the dollar? Does debt matter?

Socrates964 (11/25/02; 17:27:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 90297)
Comrade Ching, et al
Thanks everyone, for your comments -Boilermaker, I'm honored.

Actually, in writing this article, my aim was more to propose a simple model to show why gold may be behaving in the way it has, rather than to make any specific predictions.

Indeed, one of the problems of equating gold purchases with the Chinese trade surplus is that they would have to buy 5-10,000 tons to make a difference.

Could they hide this from the US? One thought that occurs to me is that they do the reverse of gold leasing - loaning dollars to the Dr. Nos of this world to buy gold. If the Western CBs lease out gold while keeping it on their books as reserves, why can't an Asian central bank do the precise opposite while continuing to cover its tracks?



TownCrier (11/25/02; 17:27:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 90296)
Notables from the WGC weekly recap
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html
"Physical demand was particularly well underpinned by Indian interest, with some buying also coming through from Japan as the currency weakened and the price moved higher.
+
"While this may seem paradoxical it is not unusual as market participants often prefer to buy into a rising price than attempt to finesse a market "bottom".
+
The Japanese government's plans for an extra budget is also playing on the minds of local investors as it refreshes concerns about the state of the banking system."

AND

"In the US, the September trade deficit was broadly unchanged from August, at US$38 Billion (against $38.3Bn) and although this was in line with expectations it was nonetheless the second highest on record."

AND

"Work on construction of the new 100 tpa [tonnes per annum] refinery in Dubai has commenced, with the groundbreaking ceremony held last week. The refinery complex, which will include coin minting and jewellery fabrication facilities, is to be run by the ARY Group. Jewellery will include stone set pieces as well as yellow gold in 18, 20 and 22-carat. The refinery is part of the DMCC project (Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre), which will provide storage, assay services etc."

Black Blade (11/25/02; 16:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 90295)
IMF warns Europe and Japan on growth
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2510143.stm

IMF warns finance ministers and central bankers

Snippit:

The US economic recovery is not as strong as expected but it is Europe and Japan that need to do more to boost world economic growth, according to the International Monetary Fund. The prospects for Europe were "not that good" and economic forecasts were falling almost monthly "as numbers come in", said The IMF's first deputy managing director Anne Krueger. "The IMF's view is very strongly that we would like to see measures taken to see other legs on the stool, namely Europe and Japan, growing somewhat more rapidly because that would obviously be good for everybody, including the United States," she said . Many economists, and US officials, have urged the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, with a view to stimulating economic growth in Germany - Europe's largest economy, which is struggling to stay out of recession. Japan's economic problems centre around how to reverse deflation, and encourage consumer spending, and dealing with bad debts in the banking system.

Black Blade: These comments do not match up to the spin from the US Federal Reserve and US politicos. I guess that they are not on the same page.



Black Blade (11/25/02; 16:17:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 90294)
Rising Unemployment May Discourage Consumer Shopping
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APeI4CRbfUmlzaW5n

Snippit:

Confidence surveys in the U.S. and Europe show concerns about job losses are mounting. Retailers such as Home Depot Inc., the world's largest home-improvement chain, and Carrefour SA, Europe's largest retailer, report declining sales. KarstadtQuelle AG, Germany's biggest department-store company, last week predicted profit may drop by a third this year. Consumers, who have kept the world economy growing by buying homes and cars, are now witnessing tens of thousands of job cuts announced by such companies as Ford Motor Co., Lucent Technologies Inc., and Deutsche Bank AG. Their concerns may stunt the global recovery: U.S. consumer spending alone accounts for 15 percent of world gross domestic product.

In October, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to a nine-year low, as 22.1 percent of those surveyed, up from 16.8 percent, said they expect fewer jobs in months ahead. Economists expect the next survey, due out on Nov. 26, to show sentiment hovering close to those nine-year lows. That's even as a separate November survey by the University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence rising more than expected, helped by rebounding stocks: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 20 percent in the past month. So far this year, 1.4 million homes have been started, the strongest January-October period since 1986. Yet home building fell to its lowest in six months in October, a sign that U.S. growth will no longer get a leg up from the property market.


Black Blade: Unemployment numbers have been falling due to holiday shortened weeks. This has been ignored or (conveniently) overlooked by Wall Street analysts. Somehow I don't think that they are that stupid (but who knows), though I suspect that it is just another deceptive measure used to draw in the Lemmings for another fleecing.



Black Blade (11/25/02; 16:03:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 90293)
More Companies May Be Cut to Junk Level, S&P Says
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=marketsquote99_relnews.ht&s=APeI9IxNbTW9yZSBD

Snippit:

Fifteen borrowers, 11 from the U.S., are on watch for downgrades to their BBB- credit ratings, below which some investors may not buy their debt, S&P said in a research report. It has a negative outlook on another 61 borrowers rated BBB-. ``We are not through the worst,'' said Philip Crate, a credit analyst at Bear, Stearns & Co. ``There are more companies falling into junk. We expect credit conditions to continue to be difficult and don't see improvement until the second quarter of 2003.''

Black Blade: Some "economic recovery".



Belgian (11/25/02; 15:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 90292)
Sierra
Go back in history : And imagine the perfect monopoly game with the perfect goldstandard :
Confetti AND Gold grow in tandem. More confetti to settle expanding trade, backed with more Gold at the fixed price or a higher price for the same amount of goldreserves that are exchangeble for the confetti. The dollar could proliferate as much as it wanted to, and keep its stable purchasing power within an expanding global economy over any time lapse. One currency for all with a constant purchasing power everywhere. Yes, Utopia !

This was NOT possible/happening. Confetti proliferated > the amount of Goldreserves stopped growing and POG remained fixed (insignificant/disproportionate price-rise).
The dollar wanted to conquer and wanted it fast with the sole intention to dominate with force other than honest chances for all and a stable, natural growth of global trade !

This dollar-conquest is an enormous, undeniable, succes !
The dollar was able to abuse Gold. De Gaulle (1971) got fed up with this succes-story. That's why NATO is in Brussels and not Paris, where it was planned.

Euroland had no choice as to submit to dollar supremacy for our stupidity of those 2 WWs. We still regret that idiocy and slowly started to make new plans. The dollar conquered the world with unfree Gold and therefore we simply must set Gold free as to stop that magnificent/succesful dollar- strategy. Voila and here you have the euro-concept of FREE GOLD. Howhow, not an easy task after all these succesful dollar-years ! Letting the dollar-giant stumble must be done in a very subtle way, when you are an euro-lilliputan.

The dollar made the mistake of putting Gold aside and laid the fundamentals for another currency to do it better.
If Free Gold hadn't been burried, the dollar could easely been accepted by all as the perfect currency for all. No euro-dollars but a world-dollar with free gold as universal arbiter . Is there a flaw in this answer ?

Old Yeller (11/25/02; 15:55:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 90291)
Socrates 964,intriguing post
http://www.capitalstool.com/yabbse/attachments/gold_3.gif

Here's a chart to accompany it.

Boilermaker (11/25/02; 15:45:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 90290)
Socrates964- Bravo for message 90282
This is HOF material and I nominate it for that honor. Clarity and incisiveness on the continuing global battle of our age. America is beset by religious and economic forces that challenge its supremacy. I share your vision that it will be up to the task.

Boilermaker

Aragorn III (11/25/02; 15:39:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 90289)
Sierra Madre... offering a leg up if I may
"If Gold should have been free, the euro wouldn't had a chance to challenge the dollar"

Try this alternate delivery, and you may find the meaning:

"If Gold had been free, there would be NO NEED to challenge the dollar... that is, the world would be already where we are going."

Euro, dollar, what is in a name after all?

It is the design of the reserve model that matters. Because the dollar name did not and does not offer this free gold structure, the opportunity was there for the euro name to do so, thus rising to prominence rather than redundance.

got gold?

Belgian (11/25/02; 15:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 90288)
Aragorn III // Socrates 964
Aragorn : I'm a humble Gold-student and can't possibly answer your question. Let us be honest and all admit that we have so very little of Gold-Insides, to build on. We can only theoritizise on the visible facts and give them a possible place into CB's strategies, A, B or C. But 70 years of unworkable Gold-Currency management, demand an all-embracing concept that is not that easely corrupted simply for the reason that it must pull us all out of a deadlock situation. Of course, one day, Gold will be used (abused again) to gain superiority over one another. The ECB or Euroland's architects are no virgins. And this brings us to Socrates964's question on how much Gold-Reserves, China has already accumulated. Do they have the same intentions as when Europ demanded the American Gold, post 1971 ? Is the US prepared to live without Gold whilst the rest of the world keeps on accumulating and encouraging the price-rise of its Value ? Funny situation, isn't it ? Or are these 8.125 tonnes USA-Gold, sufficient, to connect to the concept in a later stage ? Yes Socrates, indeed...how much Gold has China already out of the total it desires to obtain for strategical reasons !? But I'm already happy with the increase of 100 tonnes (400 to 500) they announced publicly. But what is 500 tonnes for China in proportion to a lilliputan country as Belgium having 250 tonnes left ?
Or against the thousands of tonnes for the US or the ME/Germany/France ? Yes, proportions !

We do remain completely in the dark as to if and how, different CBs deal with each other on their Gold reserves inside or outside the ECB/BIS ! The only thing everyone was allowed to see, is how the EMU, organizes the Gold transfers to ECB as to become a member of EMU !!! Gold is your entry-ticket ! Otherwise no chair for the euro-show !

Are we waiting for China to have enough Gold-reserves, proportionately, as to become an EMU member with special status ??? If yes, then your theory on the 325$ (Washington Agreement-ceeling) could be interesting. Add on top of this, South Africa, flying Gold to China plus an extensive Gold exploration program in China and a Shangai, Gold-market (plus expanding Dubai market).

But the same China question counts for the Gold-dinar architects and Russian Gold.

All these Gold-Reserves must come in line with the same concept. The same common need for a neutral arbiter with no privileges for any participant in particular, once the concept is generally accepted. The concept of a FREE GOLD market without hocus pocus.

Bedtime, and thanks for the stimulating exchange of ideas.




Sierra Madre (11/25/02; 15:30:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 90287)
Socrates964: Your Post 90282 - excellent insights!!
Big, big things can never be hurried. The fall of empires takes its time. The demise of the dollar and the renewed imperium of gold, will take place, all in good time. Let us not become impatient.

Gold is a store of value. Unfortunately, in the nature of things, gold is adequate for strong hands, not for weak hands that wish to solve pressing problems of income in their life, that might be assisted by an immediate and large rise in the price of gold.

We are contemplating high drama on a world scale.

Watch and accumulate during this titanic struggle.

Sierra

Sierra Madre (11/25/02; 15:04:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 90286)
Belgian: could you explain this to me, please?
You wrote:

"If Gold should have been free, the euro wouldn't had a chance to challenge the dollar"

We - or at least I - need repeated explanations sometimes, to grasp fully what someone is saying. If you have a chance, I'd appreciate very much an elaboration on that theme, by yourself.

You are probably right in your affirmation, but I'd like to see the logic step by step.

As for the ECB, of course, better it should be there, than nothing, and in this world, "What is perfect is enemy to what is possible". As the Count Danilo says in "Die Lustige Witwe" - "Man tut vas man kann!"

Sierra

Belgian (11/25/02; 14:32:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 90285)
The * BALANCE* between Growth and Stability....
That is the main problem. Balancing the speed and magnitude of growth without endangering the stability. Politics wants more growth as CBs prefer stability over growth.
That's why FREE GOLD is so important as the one and only possible tool to come closer to balanced proportions between growth and stability. All players (states) in any game (economy) do accept the authority of an independant arbiter (Gold) to obtain order within the competition.

But let there be first chaos and unbridled falsifications before it is decided to have such an arbiter as to self-regulate within agreed bounderies.

The ECB's marking to market of its Goldreserves is nothing else than an invitation for the ultimate arbiter to be accepted outside Euroland. Not the Gold-volume but the valuation of Gold, soon to be decided by the general public instead of any CB with autocratic power/capacity. A very appealing model, publicly, confirmed by China. The US stopped pushing POG, systematically down. The WA (Washington Agreement) acted to prevent Gold-Chaos !

If the coming war should bring more turbulance, the globe will yell for "stability" instead of wild adventures with uncertain outcomes. More reasons to accept Gold as "regulating", third party, after 20 years of total suppression with no lasting benfits for the dollar and an harmonious, balanced global trade.

It is sheer idiocy to think that we are so great as to manage this chaotic differences in currencies and their trading advantages or disadvantages. The ECB gives evidence that Gold was/is and will remain of utmost importance. This in sharp contrast of the FED who prefers to remain mysterious about it.

It is not the dollar who should command what the price (purchasing power) is of any given currency, but a FEE Gold
Market that makes the POG the resultant of the largest possible majority.

Gold is an exhaustable valuable. Double the amount of underground gold forward sales or keep on paperizing Gold as much as you want...price-pressure will build relentlessly, no matter what you do. Post 1971 when Gold multiplied its price by 25 over ten years, thousands of tonnes (20.000 tonnes) where shipped from the US vaults to the European and Middle East, reserves. Massive Gold-sales not to be compared with the present European Gold re-distributions !

Gold has a very bright future and we are all going to witness it.



Aragorn III (11/25/02; 14:22:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 90284)
Yes Belgian!
"The ECB hopes to achieve "price-stability" ... It is NOT the price of a product that goes up, but the purchasing-power of a currency that goes down !
A FREE GOLD VALUATION associated with a specific currency (the euro) can signal and compensate mismanagement !"

If I may polish this with personal opinion, the urging would be that the "basket of goods" being price-measured by the ECB as a stabilty indicator in determination of policy (rates) should NOT EVER contain gold among the items. Were gold to be in the basket, its price would thus being managed in part. This can not, should not, be allowed if gold is to function freely as the truly neutral judge of international currency value. Otherwise, it judges only the success had in masking and capping gold as seen throughout U.S. history to today.

Simply stated, a central bank should not be tempted to measure gold with an eye on price policy, and only thus may a cash-for-metal market provide a free and fair measure of the many currencies as a more meaningful international benchmark.

Do you see lasting hope in this, or must we be doomed to but circle 'round the same old dusty roads?

got thoughts?

White Rose (11/25/02; 14:13:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 90283)
Spate of ominous Internet messages from al Qaeda followers
Spate of ominous Internet messages from al Qaeda followers

In the last few hours DEBKAfile counter-terror sources report a heightened volume of traffic over the Arabic Internet forums frequented by al Qaeda and its partisans. Most of the last messages end: "The zero hour has come."

One particular release was aired three times today, all posted by "ARAMCO boy". The first one to reach our sources was issued at 12:28 EST, 19:28 IST.

"Today, at 6:20 hours, there will be a surprise program, one of the most beautiful I have ever seen over our Qatari channel. Anyone who knows what I mean must tell no one so as to keep the surprise whose content everyone will love. Only God knows what I mean. The program forced me to write these lines at great speed and I ask God to forgive me and reserve Paradise and not Hell for me. The zero hour has come."

According to DEBKAfile's sources, these messages may be red herrings designed to confuse and mislead outside monitors. However, the source who picked up the latest batch has correctly interpreted at least two such enigmatic messages in recent months as presaging the re-appearance of Osama bin Laden and his lieutenant Ayman Zuwahri after many months out of sight. They were followed by pre-recorded statements over al Jazeera satellite TV. The timing too is suggestive: Thursday, November 28, is Thanksgiving Day in the United States.

Also worth noting is that while messages over these forums usually draw responses, the one cited here went unanswered.



Socrates964 (11/25/02; 13:51:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 90282)
(No Subject)
THE THOUGHTS OF COMRADE CHING by ‘Socrates’
Socrates was said to be the wisest of men because he was the first to realize his ignorance. Normally ‘experts’ write articles because they know something their public doesn't - in this case I am writing an article because I don't know something and perhaps my readers do.

Let me begin, not by telling you what it is that I don't know, but by recommending a book, ‘Prosperity and Upheaval’ by Herman van der Wee, which is a good but rather dry economic history of the post-WWII period down to 1980, or if you can't bear to read the whole thing, just section 9 on the gold standard.

This section contains two instructive episodes. The first is the designing of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1943. My views on John Maynard Keynes are largely unprintable. I will merely say that if Dante were writing the Divine Comedy today, he would undoubtedly have placed Maynard in one of the lower circles of hell for standing behind generations of politician down to the present day, patting them on the back and saying ‘not only are you justified in manipulating the economy against its natural tendencies, you are morally obliged to do so’, despite the fact that he was undoubtedly intelligent enough to realize the dreadful consequences of his prescription.

Having said this, when called on to design a post-war monetary order, even someone as hopelessly addicted to government intervention as Keynes suggested a gold-backed currency – Why? because he felt that this was the only way to establish an international central bank that transcended individual national interests.

As we see from cases such as the International Criminal Court, when it comes to accepting an international authority, the US is always delighted to do so, provided that the authority in question is an American authority.

Hence Keynes, after being assiduously courted by Harry Dexter White, saw his plan undermined, since White's superiors in the US Treasury didn't want a gold-backed international currency that rivaled the greenback. (Readers may know that White's triumph was short-lived and that he was in the process of being investigated as a Communist spy in 1948, when he had a well-timed fatal heart attack).

The second episode is the break-up of Bretton Woods in 1971 – I will merely make two points here. Firstly, after WWII, the war-weakened economies of Europe and Japan were delighted to be pulled out of their holes by Uncle Sam, although once they got back on their feet, it became clear that the US had no plans to give up its status of the ‘rich uncle/policeman who is above the law’, even though by the early 1960s, the black market in gold was already signaling that the dollar was overvalued. As we all know, the US response was a central bank pool to suppress the gold price. [As an aside, let me say that I find it hard to understand why GATA has been ridiculed for suggesting covert manipulation of the gold price, when this went on openly from 1962-68].

The macroeconomic pressures that finally blew Bretton Woods apart in 1971 happened on the watch of Treasury Secretary, John B. Connally, Jr., a man known for his intransigence and xenophobia, who continued until the bitter end to regard requests from the international community for a devaluation of the dollar as nothing more than self-serving crying and whingeing, insisting that if the Germans, Brits, Japanese, etc. didn't like the then current dollar parities then they should revalue their own currencies.

Now, just as Jim Sinclair has given us the fictional figures of Dr. No and Hung Fat, let us propose Comrade Ching, who is an economist in Beijing (although he could also be somewhere else like Taipei). Jim Sinclair may well know exactly who Messrs. No and Fat are in real life, but Comrade Ching is purely a figment of my imagination.

Let us suppose that Comrade Ching receives a summons to Party Headquarters, is shown into a room with 20 Communist Party dignitaries and asked the question:

-Comrade Ching, you have been called here as an expert on modern economic history and monetary policy. What do your studies of the last fifty years tell you about the mentality of the Americans?

-Comrades, my studies have taught me three things:
Firstly, the Americans will only accept an international authority if they themselves are in charge of it.
Secondly, they will always oppose any international currency, whether gold or any other medium, which threatens the supremacy of the US dollar.
Thirdly, even after their exchange rate collapses under the weight of its own contradictions, they will refuse to accept any monetary system unless they are guaranteed a hegemonic position.

-Comrade Ching, you are no doubt aware that we have accumulated many dollars by flooding the United States with cheap goods. You must treat the following with complete confidentiality, but our satellites have detected many truckloads of trees going into the Federal Reserve buildings at the dead of night, and we suspect that these ministries of monetary policy are actually a façade for a massive and secret printing operation. We are afraid that the true value of our Yuan in these American dollars may be much higher than the official exchange rate suggests, and that if the dollar collapses and our peasants and workers find out that they are dollar millionaires, they will all want to go to Disneyland and discipline will break down. What do you recommend?

Comrade Ching replies.
-Comrades, I have given this much thought, and my conclusion is that the Americans have again placed themselves in an unsustainable situation while believing that they are strong and the rest of the world is weak. Sooner or later, the dollar will collapse against gold as it did in 1971, and when it does, we must be prepared to offer an alternative home to the capital of our friends –especially those in the Middle East, who have been deeply offended by American saber-rattling. Until then, the Americans will continue to defend the dollar as they have always done, by selling gold. We must buy this gold with our paper dollars. But note, comrades, that the Americans have shown that they will defend gold to the death at $325. If gold goes above this, then the world will know that the dollar is collapsing.

Now, comrades, I draw your attention to a subtle point. Let us consider the value of our reserves in dollars and assume that if the dollar declines against a basket of currencies by 1%, then the gold price rises by 1% in dollar terms. Clearly, if we have less than half of our reserves in gold, as gold appreciates in dollar terms, the overall dollar value of our reserves will go down, since the loss on the dollar portion will be greater than the gain on the gold portion in dollar terms. If, instead, gold rises by 2% in dollar terms for every 1% decline in the dollar against a basket of goods, then we need only exchange one third of our dollars for gold for our reserves to maintain their overall dollar value as the dollar depreciates.

-But Comrade Ching, does gold appreciate by 1% when the dollar depreciates by 1%, or does it appreciate by 2%?

-Comrades, we have seen gold move from $275 to $320 as the Euro has moved from 85 cents to 99 cents. This suggests that at present the multiplier on the gold price is around 1. It may nevertheless rise to 2 since once it breaks through $325, since fears of uncompetitiveness will brake the rise of the Euro and it will not appreciate by as much as gold. It therefore seems that we should shift something more than a third and something less than a half of our dollar reserves into gold in order to ensure that these reserves maintain their value in dollar terms.

-Comrade Ching, what are your short-term policy recommendations?

-As I have explained, Comrades, once gold rises above $325, we may not be able to exchange very many of our paper dollars for gold. Unless we have shifted a substantial portion of our reserves into gold by that point, a rise in the price of gold will be against our interests, but once we have more than say 45% of our dollars in gold, we will gain from a rise in the gold price. We must therefore assist the Americans in keeping the price of gold below $325 until we have bought enough gold to ensure that our reserve position benefits from a rise in the gold price. The danger is that once the Americans perceive that we are close to our goal, they may even push up the price to prevent us from benefiting from a rise in the gold price, although history suggests that they are governed by pig-headed people who will resist a rise in the gold price to the bitter end. It is therefore very important to buy gold secretly so that the Americans do not know how much gold we really have and are not angered by our lack of faith in their currency into imposing trade sanctions.

Let's leave Comrade Ching and the Party Committee to their black tea. The point of introducing him was to present a simple conceptual model which explains why gold has slowly moved up, yet appears to have stalled repeatedly at $325 and backed off rather than blowing through – since at this point, both fundamental buyers and sellers will both want to force the price of gold down, even though their motives are diametrically opposed (i.e. the buyers want to protect themselves against a collapse in the dollar, but still haven't accumulated a sufficiently large gold hedge, while the sellers want to maintain confidence in the dollar).

The model also includes a tipping point, an unstable equilibrium in terms of the percentage of reserves assigned to gold, at which point the dynamics of the market changes and a rise in the gold price starts to be in the interests of the buyer. In this sense, Bill Murphy would be correct in assuming that sluggish gold price behavior to date does not rule out an explosive price move in the future. This is both encouraging and frustrating to gold bulls, since until the glorious day comes, gold will mark time, but it will not go down very much. Having said this, as it becomes clear that this is the game, no-one will dare to dump physical gold on the market as it will disappear into someone else's vault for good.

Hence, as it becomes clear that the physical supply is drying up, more and more of the price suppression will be attempted by the use of paper derivatives, which will be less and less effective. The buyers could dump physical on the market to force a major move down in the price, but this will become an increasingly high risk strategy since it will become harder to repurchase the dumped gold. This may explain what we have seen – damped oscillation to the downside of a horizontal resistance at $325. I will speculate that the endgame will be sending Comex into tilt.

Since history shows that the American authorities always try and shift the goalposts in their own interests, it is likely that a huge purchase of nearest to expiry contracts on Comex plus a request for physical delivery will be met by Comex insisting on cash settlement. Placing this order may be the Asian buyers’ way of signaling to speculators that the accumulation game is over and that large amounts of physical gold are no longer available for purchase within the United States – sort of a judo strategy in which you use the weight and inertia of your opponent to throw him across the room.

Jim Sinclair has presented a conceptual model of rival speculators in an arm-wrestling competition –Dr. No and Hung Fat trying to force e.g. J.P. Morgan to short cover its overextended derivative positions, and J. P. Morgan trying to force the gold price lower in the hope that Dr. No and Hung Fat have a stop loss on their portfolio which is triggered by a given fall in the gold price. In my model, you have end buyers who have a longer term strategy of simply getting out of dollars and know that if they force the price of gold higher before they have accumulated a sufficiently large amount then they will be overall losers from a rise in the gold price. Hence Dr. No and Hung Fat may well exist, although they are not proprietary speculators per se but brokers to a central bank disguised as speculators. He may protest that I am setting him up as a straw man, but so far the gold market seems to consist of major buyers who don't want to force the price, rather than speculators who do.

At the start of this article I stated that I was writing it because I don't know something that perhaps other readers do. What I don't know is this - how much gold have the Chinese (could be the Taiwanese or other Asian central banks with dollar reserves or a combination of these) accumulated since the 1999 low as a proportion of their dollar reserves. If we can answer this, then we may have the key to understanding when gold breaks through $325. All comments welcomed.

Socrates wishes to point out that he has no factual evidence for any assertions about the current/future behavior of the gold price made in the above article, and is merely an independent observer drawing his own subjective conclusions from publicly available information. He also wishes to state while this article may appear to carry anti-American sentiments, he remains a great admirer of the United States and wishes to see it remain a great, prosperous and free nation, even if he thinks that current US monetary policy will achieve the precise opposite.


balzac (11/25/02; 13:19:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 90281)
M3
The Hoople
Will you pls tell me where you got the latest on
the M3 ??

Thanks

Balzac

Belgian (11/25/02; 13:11:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 90280)
Aragorn III /// Sierra Madre
EU stability-pact reforms = More flexbility and less rigidity. Adaptive "budget deficits" according to economic realities (2% > 3%). Not as much to lure the UK into EMU but rather to accomodate the situation in France (and Italy-110% debt to GDP).

Yes gentlemen, the ECB is NOT (far from) perfect ! How fortunate for us Gold-Friends !
The ECB hopes to achieve "price-stability" as a result of its policies of a strong currency that corrects its purchasing power WITH A FREE MARKET IN PHYSICAL GOLD as its main supporter ! Why does Euroland works to the goal of oil for euro ? It is NOT the price of a product that goes up, but the purchasing-power of a currency that goes down !
A FREE GOLD VALUATION associated with a specific currency (the euro) can signal and compensate mismanagement ! Sort of a selfimposed discipline through a neutral arbiter, Gold.
Completely different from the pré 1971 gold-standard where more confetti was not compensated by more Gold or a higher valuation for the existing reserves.

It is to the degree of "stability" that the euro can show that this Free Gold Market can be achieved through international agreement. Did we heard from the FED that they had the intention to keep the dollar's purchasing power stable ? No, never !

The euro does not want a competitive depreciation of the currencies. It wants an expanding Euroland with a common goal of being as stable as possible and not dependant from the management of the dollar as the reserve currency.

South America suffers from its decision to link its currencies to the dollar. Has one already seen such disastrous results in Spain / Greece / Portugal, having replaced their local currency with the euro ?

Note that this week, the UK asked their firefighters not to DE_STABILIZE, britains economy....> destabilize !

If Gold should have been free, the euro wouldn't had a chance to challenge the dollar !!! But the dollar can't afford anymore to let Gold Free ! Big difference and imvvvho the clue of the whole affair between $ and €.
Why do you think, NOBODY (!!!!!!!) is talking about this euro/Gold-concept ? Why do you think NOBODY is even taking time to ridicule this concept ? It is only the euro that must be questioned but never the underlying concept.

GOLD is the reason WHY !

Cavan Man (11/25/02; 13:04:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 90279)
Aragorn
See today's FT for a clue?(pg.2)

a nation of one (11/25/02; 12:29:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 90278)
Re: Sierra Madre (11/25/02; 11:28:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 90274)

In short, there is no way that a Central Bank can be a healthy phenomenon. CBs were created to facilitate and empower fraudulent practices by bankers greedy for present profits, and heedless of ultimate consequences. Not even the great "European Central Bank" can be a benign institution. It is rotten from the start. Do not put any faith in it. It may serve a useful purpose as a counter-fraud to the other prevailing fraud, the Dollar. But in essence, the ECB is another of the frauds of our time.

--------------------a nation of one:

Clearly you are right about this, but what to do? Individuals could start using gold as a currency, and refuse to use dollars when possible. But presently the effect would be small, and by this means victory would take a long time. I think there is reason to believe that prompt solutions require prompt action, and we do not see the American people doing anything to correct this. If a solution is to be made by working within the system, now is the time for such action, yet the American public are uninformed and therefore unconcerned. Later solutions, it seems apparent, have an increasing potential for abruptness. Violent solutions to problems comes from not doing what is necessary in the beginning, and from omitting doing what is needed along the way. That is our situation now. To avoid a violent solution to this problem of the central bank using the public's money for the purpose of manipulating our nation's economic realities, political action would need to be being taken right now. Some is, but it is completely insignficant, compared to what is needed.

Aragorn III (11/25/02; 12:29:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 90277)
A small thought for Sierra Madre on the Hubble Space Telescope
A man may see and imagine worlds of many wondrous design. Though his eye and mind may see it, still he may not live there.

That is all to say, when humbled by the weather we each build our house.

got gold?

a nation of one (11/25/02; 12:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 90276)
Re: Aragorn III (11/25/02; 10:51:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 90273)

"frustrating experiences of turbulence and instability in the 1970s and the 1980s taught us that attempts to use monetary policy to accelerate growth just tend to produce bigger fluctuations in economic activity, more uncertainty, very volatile expectations, higher inflation, higher real interest rates as a result of higher risk premia, and, ultimately, lower medium-term growth. These experiences, in fact, created the political will and consensus in Europe to give central banks a clear and narrow mandate to concentrate on medium-term price stability and to make them fully independent in fulfilling this narrow mandate.

"Both theoretical and empirical evidence indeed confirm that there is no long-term trade-off between price stability and economic growth.

-------------------a nation of one:
Greenspan already knew this.


Aristotle (11/25/02; 11:51:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 90275)
Howdy, y'all. Are we all up to speed on this price thing?
With the first notice day on the December COMEX contracts looming on Wednesday, does anyone have any lingering doubt (or surprise) why we're seeing the price action like we are? There's over 65,000 positions in open interest for the nearby expiry, and as all these dogs gotta go, they're crowding the exits. In this leveraged paper game, the longs are always weaker than the shorts.

So what's a boy to do? Buy the Metal at the paper-inspired prices while the game continues. It's a gift.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Sierra Madre (11/25/02; 11:28:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 90274)
So, Central Banks are to be "limited" to stabilizing prices?

Even that is a false and unreal objective. No such thing as "price stability" is possible or desireable, because an economy is an ever-changing system where new valuations of goods and services are taking place continuously, according to the ever-changing wishes of consumers and of producers' plans to satisfy consumers.

Under a sound banking system - one that does not borrow short and lend long (there are no such banking systems or commercial banks in existence today in the world)- there would be a tendency to ever-lower prices of goods and services, as increasing abundance would tend to lower prices. Should Central Banks intervene to prevent abundance and thus lower prices? Of course not.

The "excess supply" they complain of, is of their own doing!
They allow credit to expand beyond savings, malinvestment results, and there is an excess of unwanted and unneeded goods and servies.

In short, there is no way that a Central Bank can be a healthy phenomenon. CBs were created to facilitate and empower fraudulent practices by bankers greedy for present profits, and heedless of ultimate consequences. Not even the
great "European Central Bank" can be a benign institution. It is rotten from the start. Do not put any faith in it. It may serve a useful purpose as a counter-fraud to the other prevailing fraud, the Dollar. But in essence, the ECB is another of the frauds of our time.

Buy gold. "Nec minimum credula postero."

Sierra

Aragorn III (11/25/02; 10:51:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 90273)
Dear Belgian... 'Euroland wants UK on EMU terms'
That seems right enough. You must be this tall to ride the ride.

Euro area statistics can boast three quarters of current account surplus at EUR 37 billion against 2001 Q1+2+3 deficit of EUR 23 billion. Turnaround is evident also in euro area investment flow, through September 2002 inflow at EUR 25 billion against the matching 2001 period outflow at EUR 85 billion.

You are right. UK boarding with(out) swagger must not overly rock this boat.

Dr. Sirkka Hämäläinen reminded EU colleagues last week:

"frustrating experiences of turbulence and instability in the 1970s and the 1980s taught us that attempts to use monetary policy to accelerate growth just tend to produce bigger fluctuations in economic activity, more uncertainty, very volatile expectations, higher inflation, higher real interest rates as a result of higher risk premia, and, ultimately, lower medium-term growth. These experiences, in fact, created the political will and consensus in Europe to give central banks a clear and narrow mandate to concentrate on medium-term price stability and to make them fully independent in fulfilling this narrow mandate.

"Both theoretical and empirical evidence indeed confirm that there is no long-term trade-off between price stability and economic growth.

"t is worrying to see how much unfounded belief there is in public debate on the role and power of monetary policy in supporting growth and stabilising cyclical movements in total output. There is a risk that this belief could cause a dangerous moral hazard problem. If monetary policy is believed to be able to fix the structural and real economy problems, both the private sector and political decision-makers would feel tempted to shirk their responsibilities.

"Attributing other objectives than price stability to the ECB's monetary policy would extend beyond what a central bank could credibly deliver."


While one must keep one's house in order, have you any insight on the latest EU considerations to revisit the stabilty pact in a manner which may serve to appease UK's chancellor of the Exchequer?

Thank you for your thoughts.

got gold?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/25/02; 09:07:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 90272)
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