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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/25/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 23:25:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62392)
RE: Strad Master #62388 - Al Qaeda Layoffs
Will they have a "Pink Slip Party" and trade resumes?
Cheers! (that was good).
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 23:20:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 62391)
NGSA's Natural Gas Winter Outlook Proves Strong for Consumers
http://www.NGSA.org/
Snippit:
Washington, D.C. -- "Compared to last year, consumers are likely to see the benefit of lower natural gas commodity prices in their winter bills," said R. Skip Horvath, President of the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). "At a time when the country is feeling uncertain about the direction of our economy and national security, consumers can rest assured that the natural gas industry is well equipped for the winter heating season."
Five elements, or "wildcards" that also could move the market:
1. The economy is weak, greatly slowing demand for natural gas. In fact, since the tragic events of September 11, we updated our analysis to reflect that the industrial demand we expected to come online is now delayed.
2. Last year's weather produced record cold in November and December, driving prices up on the natural gas spot market. This year, although we're expecting cold weather in the Northeast and Midwest regions that may be volatile at times, it is expected to be within the normal range.
3. Production is up. Producers did what they said they were going to do last year and produced more natural gas. This year, production is up a full Bcf (Billion Cubic Feet) per day, which is enough to heat 4.3 million more homes a day than last year, helping to decrease price pressure on the market. However, as a result, we are seeing a decrease in the rig count as capital is being reallocated to reflect market conditions.
4. Demand is flat and would be down, except for the vast amount of electric generation coming online this year, helping to make up for the lost demand from industrial, commercial and residential customers. Industrial customers are being hit hard by the weakened economy, impacting demand for natural gas. For example, if cars are not being manufactured, steel usage declines, representing 10 percent of industrial natural gas demand. The use of chemicals, which may decline as well, such as coatings for automobiles, represents 38 percent of industrial natural gas demand.
5. Unlike last year at this time, storage is almost full, helping to protect consumers against the volatility of the natural gas spot market. In fact, forecasters are predicting that we will end the storage season (November 1) this year at capacity with 500 Bcf of natural gas more than last year."
Black Blade: The report emphasizes that these "wildcards" could very well impact the market and that new NG power plants coming online make up for decreased demand due to the Recession. There are nearly 300 new NG-fired power plants being built and planned between now and 2006. Also, drill rig activity is slowing and that will result in less NG supply down the road. Virtually all new power generation is NG-fired, so any economic recovery could very well depend on increasing NG and electricity output from all available sources. Right now that does not appear to be the case so we could be in this deepening Recession for a very long time.
In this economic environment we should look for protection as the Economy slips into oblivion. That means be very selective and accumulate hard assets to ride out this storm, It could last a very long time.
Netking
(9/25/01; 23:14:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 62390)
Bin Laden Calls His Balkan Brigades to Arms
http://debka.com/
This one from Debka intelligence is worth a read also, focusing on the anti-coalition camp. - Netking
DEBKAfile's military sources report that Osama Bin Laden's deputy, the Egyptian Jihad chief Ayman al-Zawahri, has ordered Al Qaeda and Jihad activists in Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia an estimated 6,000 men to report for duty and prepare to open a second Islamic front against the United States in the Balkans.
According to our sources, that nucleus group is capable of mustering another 40,000 trained and well-armed fighting men. Many hold on to the up-to-date weapons handed out to them by NATO, including the US Army, during the 1998 Kosovo War.In Bosnia, the Bin Laden-Jihad alliance commands a reservoir of 7,500 fighting men; in Kosovo 15,000; in Albania another 15,000 and in Macedonia 5,000.
Earlier this week, rumors went round European and NATO intelligence circles that al-Zawahri was in Tirana to organize the Balkan fighting force. He was said to be drawing for help on the Jihad's extensive infrastructure in the Albanian capital, the Albanian criminal underworld and the Albanian Liberation Army command posts that control large stretches of Kosovo.
NATO Headquarters in Brussels also received reports of some 3,000 Chechen rebels funded by Bin Laden beginning to cross into Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. They are in flight from President Vladimir Putin's 72-hour ultimatum to give themselves up and surrender their arms. They suspect that Putin received an American carte blanche to crush the Chechen rebellion in return for his support of the US operation in Afghanistan. The generals in Brussels fear the Chechens will strike at the US bases going up n Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tadjikistan.
There is every indication, according to DEBKAfile's military sources, of preparations by Bin Laden and his network of militant Islamic fundamentalists to launch two fronts - in the Balkans and in Central Asia to attack US and allied forces as they open their offensive in Afghanistan.
NATO maintains 60,000 servicemen in the Balkans, one third American; US strength in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia now stands at some 15,000.
Washington's hopes of bringing Arab nations into its anti-terror coalition were further dashed Monday, September 24, when Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iraqi president Saddam Hussein, both called Syrian President Bashar Assad with a promise of any political and military support he might need to frustrate an American strike against the militant Shiite Hizballah in Lebanon and the radical Palestinian groups based in Damascus.
Saddam disclosed he had placed his armed forces on supreme battle preparedness in anticipation of the United States following up on its operation in Afghanistan with an assault on Iraq in an attempt to topple his regime.
DEBKAfile's military sources confirm that the Iraqi army was placed on its highest preparedness at the end of last week. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians are reported fleeing Baghdad and Basra and making for remote villages.
Another sign of the rising tension in Iraq is the airlift Beijing has instituted to remove the 1000 Chinese technicians and military men upgrading Iraqi air defense command centers with new optic fibers systems.
These major military movements heavily overshadowed Yasser Arafat's abruptly aborted trip to Damascus Tuesday and the news that his oft-delayed and unpopular meeting with Israeli foreign Minister Shimon Peres in Gaza would finally come off Wednesday morning. If that meeting does indeed come about, the two are expected to sign a memorandum affirming a cessation of hostilities, the application of the ceasefire negotiated by CIA director George Tenet four months ago and of the first stages of the recommendations made by former Senator George Mitchell and his team.
According to DEBKAfile's sources in Washington, Arafat had already set out for his long-awaited meeting with the Syrian president in Damascus, when he turned round and retraced his steps to Gaza. He changed course after US secretary of state Colin Powell had harangued him by telephone from before he embarked from Dahaniyeh airport in Gaza all the way to Amman. Powell finally slapped down an ultimatum: Go to Damascus and meet Assad, and he would not only burn all his bridges to Washington once and for all, but he would be deemed to have lined up with Saddam Hussein once again as he did in the 1991 Gulf War only this time there would be no forgiveness from Washington and he could expect full punishment. . . . Arafat, when his plane touched down in Amman, ordered his pilot to turn back."
Netking
(9/25/01; 23:05:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 62389)
America's War Coalition Flip Flops
http://debka.com
America's War Coalition Flip Flops.
A good guide to who's in and who's not - Netking
DEBKA file's experts offer a short guide to the maneuvers surrounding America's attempts to build an international bloc of supporters for its war against terrorism.
*** First-line backers: Britain, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, Russia, Turkey and Pakistan.
***Second-line Support (nations rendering military, intelligence, logistic and medical aid and rear bases to the first-line members): Israel, Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan, India.
***Where Are the Arab Nations?
As the hours slip by, the Arab nations are increasing the distance between themselves and President Bush's war on terrorism, for a variety of reasons: Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia's denial of support is the bitterest setback Washingtonsuffered since deciding on its military operation, forcing the Bush administration to put its planned assault on Baghdad on hold. Suddenly, the Americans had to cast about for new forward bases in place of the new combined air operations command center at Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh, which was to have been the central command post for directing air attacks from bases around the region in the Gulf and Southwest Asian regions.
The Saudis feared an US offensive against Iraq, launched from a base on their soil, would expose their cities to strikes by Iraqi missiles bearing chemical, biological and even possibly nuclear warheads. As the Gulf linchpin, the Saudis forced Arab Emirates, such as Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman who were willing to join forces with the United States, to follow their lead and back out of the US-led alliance. America is to be allowed to maintain military forces in their territory and carry on staff functions but not to launch attacks.
Egypt: President Hosni Mubarak has from the first objected to the war coalition being led by the United States and demanded it be placed under the aegis of the United Nations. This was a pretext. Mubarak's rationale for staying out of the war alliance is simple: He knows that at some point in the campaign, Egypt, like other Arab nations, will be handed a list of domestic radical Islamic terrorist groups led by the Egyptian Jihad Islami, Osama Bin Laden's senior partner to which will be attached an American demand to terminate their operations. This Mubarak cannot afford to do, because any such move would unite all of Egypt's teeming Islamic militant groups and sects in active opposition to his regime.
Syria: Syria has the same problem as Egypt. The United States has already handed President Bashar Assad an ultimatum to be met if Syria wants to be removed from the list of states sponsoring terrorism. Before anything else, he must sever his economic and military ties with Saddam Hussein's Iraq - which is deemed a terrorist state and with the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah. In the second stage, Syria will be asked to extradite to the United States Hizballah leaders and operations chiefs, as well as activists of the Palestinian radical and Islamic groups - the Fronts, the Hamas and the Jihad Islami - while outlawing those groups.Feeling his back was to the wall, Assad hurried over to Egypt and Saudi Arabia over the weekend to demand their support for defying Washington's demands.
Palestinians: Yasser Arafat understands he is cornered. He knows perfectly well that the groups he activates in his campaign against Israel the Palestinian Authority's "Preventive Security" services, his own Fatah-Tanzim, Force 17, the Jihad Islami and the Hamas, qualify as terrorist organizations by US standards and therefore targets to be crushed. Arafat hoped that with the help of Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres, he could sanitize his terrorist groups without halting their war against Israel; once Washington accepted the Palestinian Authority as a partner in its coalition, those groups would be safe.
The Saudi withdrawal upset Arafat's applecart. Now, he dare not line up with Washington in the opposite camp to the Saudi-Egyptian-Syrian grouping. His tactics for survival entail a low-key terror campaign against Israeli targets that is careful to fall short of provoking a strong US or Israeli response, while leaving him squarely within the inter-Arab consensus.
Iran: The dual problem with the rulers of Tehran is their active sponsorship of one of the most powerful, effective and zealous terrorist groups in the Middle East, the Hizballah, plus the fact that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, personally runs what the Iranians call intelligence agencies, but which the Americans regard as terrorist groups, pure and simple. One of Khamenei's key "intelligence" aides is also one of America's deadliest enemies, the notorious Hizballah hostage-taker of Lebanon in the eighties, Imad Mughniyeh.
For the moment, it suits American diplomacy and the goals of secretary of state Colin Powell to put a good face on the process of co-opting Arab partners and Iran to the anti-terrorist coalition. After all, no one wants to burn America's bridges to the Arab world and the Persian Gulf. A useful device for preserving this facade is to lean on Israel to meet the Palestinians halfway. This is no more than a charade, because the Bush administration has little time to spare for this local conflict when it is deep in the first skirmishes of a world war.
Indeed, Washington was quick to replace the Arabs and the Gulf Emirs with Russia and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, marginalizing the Middle East and its complexities. This region will recover its importance when the Americans recover from the Saudi blow and decide to turn back to dealing with Baghdad. The decision by President Bush on this may be no more than a week, ten days off, but in making it, he will be influenced not by what happens between Israelis and Palestinians, but by the progress of the combat in Afghanistan
Strad Master
(9/25/01; 22:48:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 62388)
With apologies to Black Blade
The "Bone Pile" adds several thousand more. Looks to get much worse.
Al Qaeda to cut at least 5,000 jobs
Sun Sep 23 21:51:15 2001
September 23, 2001
KABUL (Voice of Sharia) -- Citing worldwide reaction to last week's
terrorist attacks, multi-national terror network Al Qaeda announced
Thursday that it would lay off 5,000 or more holy warriors.
The "holy war" concern said the move was necessary because of an
expected 20 percent fatwah reduction and the cost and complexity of
thwarting new airport and immigration security procedures, according
to a statement broadcast on Afghanistan's Voice of Sharia radio.
"This is, without a doubt, the most difficult thing I have had to do
in my over two decades as a mujahad," said Al Qaeda mastermind and
chief operations officer Osama bin Laden in a letter to employees. He
added, "Some of these people are my friends, who have been fighting
the infidel by my side since we were were living in caves in
Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation. We are still living in caves
in Afghanistan, but I believe the bottom is forming and we will see a
turnaround soon, provided we can meet the challenge by getting both
leaner AND meaner."
"I have declared a state of emergency at Al Qaeda," he said. "This
declaration is an official recognition that, hard as it may be to
accept, our network's very survival depends on dramatic change to our
operations, our jihad and worst of all our staffing levels."
The cuts, bin Laden said, would include both mujahadin (holy warriors)
and ulema (clerics). They will impact Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.
Some mujahadin will be notified immediately, others won't be notified
until the end of next week as they finish attacks in progress or in
late stages of planning, according to Taliban spokesman Wakil Ahmed.
Staff cuts for suicide pilots, car bombers, petty religious clerics
and other Al Qaeda holy warriors will be based on seniority, Ahmed
said, in a deal worked out at a meeting between bin Laden and union
officials from the IBIJ (International Brotherhood of the Islamic
Jihad).
Mujahadin and others who lose their jobs will not receive any sort of
severance package, according to the Al Qaeda statement. Pakistan,
which oversees Al Quaeda and its subsidiary Taliban organization, is
the world's largest country with a pre-medieval culture and justice
system. The country's latest quarterly report said the different units
of the Al Qaeda/Taliban organization, including the madrassas (schools
Pakistan has been running for twenty years to turn ordinary children
into suicidal holy warriors) had at total of 30,000 employees, meaning
the cut represents a 16 percent reduction in staff.
Al Qaeda is the latest in a string of Islamic terror network layoff
announcements, pushing the total of announced cuts in the last five
days to 10,000.
Referring to massive U.S. troop movements involving three carrier
groups in the Mediterranean and Arabian Sea, worried Afghani ulemas in
testimony during the emergency sharia council in Khandahar on Thursday
told their spiritual leader Mullah Mohammed Omar that the number is
likely to cross the 20,000 threshold in the coming days, through
attrition, with none of the expected openings slated to be refilled.
OIC (Organization of the Islamic Conference) and bin Laden are
considering spending billions on emergency aid to the industry,
distributed through a vast network of corrupt Saudi emirs,
international prostitution rings and drug smugglers. The current
exchange rate is approximately 100,000 afghanis to the dollar.
The PLO announced Tuesday it will reduce its workforce by 200 to 300
sleeper agents worldwide by end of 2002 at its commercial bus bombing
division and restaurant theater operations.
Author Unknown.
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 22:44:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 62387)
Panel says US gas supply options require long term investments
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=120155
Snippit:
HOUSTON, Sept. 25 -- North American suppliers can produce 34.8 tcf of the 35 tcf/year of natural gas that the US market is expected to need by 2020, but only by tapping into sources not yet being exploited, said an executive geologist at a Houston symposium. That includes drilling coalbed methane deposits below 5,000 ft, deeper than are now being produced; developing sub-volcanic plays that are difficult to delineate with 3D seismic technology; and producing gas hydrate deposits, a frozen slush of gas and water formed by high pressure and intense cold on and below the ocean floor, said John E. Hodgin, executive vice-president of Ryder Scott Co. LP, Houston.
Black Blade: Interesting article outlines the need to develop NG sources to address the coming shortage as decline rates accelerate and more NG-fired power plants come on line. If fuel cell technology proves to be viable and popular, then all bets are off as the hydrogen fuel for this technology is to come from cracking methane. The energy crisis did not disappear. High energy costs pushed the US economy into this Recession, and if the US economy is to emerge from this deepening Recession, it will require abundant "cheap" energy. It is cheaper now but so abundant as to remain cheap and help with an economic recovery should demand increase. We are in this Recession for the "Long Haul." Gold insurance is a prudent measure to take now.
Strad Master
(9/25/01; 22:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 62386)
And, as long as I'm posting articles...
Here is grist for the mill.
Greenspan, Rubin Agree on Tax Cuts
By Curt Anderson
AP Tax Writer
Tuesday, Sept. 25, 2001; 5:42 p.m. EDT
WASHINGTON An economic stimulus plan including tax cuts should be temporary to
guard against negative long-term consequences but would be most effective if it totaled about
$100 billion, two key senators said Tuesday after meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan.
In a private session with the Senate Finance Committee that included former Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin, Greenspan said a stimulus amounting to 1 percent of the nation's
gross domestic product, or up to $100 billion, would be a proper benchmark, according to
senators and aides who attended.
Rubin and Greenspan intended that figure to include actions already taken by Congress since
the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, which include a $40 billion emergency spending plan and $15
billion in airline aid. Some senators had suggested the $100 billion was in addition to those
measures, but a source speaking on condition of anonymity said that was not the case.
There was general agreement among the Democrats and Republicans that any stimulus should
be temporary, perhaps limited to a year or two, to guard against negative long-term effects
such as federal budget deficits and higher long-term home mortgage rates.
"I think it has to be temporary but significant enough to make a difference," said Sen. Charles
Grassley of Iowa, ranking Republican on the Finance Committee.
No decisions were made about which specific tax breaks to pursue or even whether to proceed
with an additional stimulus plan, which Greenspan again urged should await better economic
data to determine what might work.
Many Republicans, particularly in the House, are eager to move ahead with a stimulus plan as
early as next week as the economy struggles in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks.
Democratic leaders continue to stress Greenspan's wait-and-see approach which is also
embraced by the White House for now.
"I think everybody is willing to wait a week or two," said Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott,
R-Miss. "There's also a feeling by a lot of us that we're going to have to put a little more juice
in the economy with some sort of stimulus."
Like other Democrats, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus said it was important
to gauge the effect of these actions on the economy before taking additional steps.
"There's a lot already in the pipeline," said Baucus, D-Mont.
Rep. Jim McCrery, chairman of the revenue subcommittee of the House Ways and Means
Committee, said the $100 billion figure "sounds about right" if it includes some of the
previous spending action, leaving about $50 billion for tax cuts.
"We are collecting ideas, fleshing out ideas," said McCrery, R-La. "We're hopeful we will be
ready to move next week."
President Bush seems willing to wait. At the White House, spokesman Ari Fleischer said
whether to proceed with a stimulus plan remains under review.
"It won't be a rush to come out with an economic stimulus because the nation was attacked. It
has to be done right," he said.
Even with the go-slow approach, there is no shortage of options suggested by Republicans
and Democrats, including some spending proposals.
Republicans have focused on items such as cuts in capital gains taxes on investments,
accelerated depreciation for business, more generous expensing writeoffs for small business,
cuts in corporate tax rates and making parts of the just-enacted tax cut take effect more
quickly.
Among the Democratic ideas are an extension of unemployment benefits, temporary
suspension of payroll taxes, a new round of tax rebate checks focused on those who didn't
qualify for a check this summer and helping people pay for health insurance plans.
© Copyright 2001 The Associated Press
Strad Master
(9/25/01; 22:12:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 62385)
Some important articles to read while we wait.
Comments ???
ALL: When the Presidential election was newly resolved, there was much written on this esteemed forum about the election of George W. Bush and its legitimacy. I didn't get into that arguement because of its volatility and my observation that already made-up minds couldn't changed by the endless repetition of facts. Times have changed, though, since September 11 and a lot of people have been forced to do some hard re-thinking of their moral and political positions. With that in mind, I present the article below, taken from today's Wall Street Journal. Following that is an astute and level-headed analysis by a military expert on what the US really has to expect with the coming war. Hopefully, it will put to rest some erroneous assumptions.
***********************************************
I Was Wrong About Bush, He's proved himself to be the leader America needs.
BY GERALD POSNER, Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, September 25, 2001
Mr. Posner is the author of numerous books including "Case Closed: Lee Harvey
Oswald and the Assassination of JFK.
What a difference 10 months make. Last November I broke the unwritten rule
that requires journalists to be neutral political observers when I got
embroiled in the controversy over the presidential election and publicly
supported Al Gore. It was not just with friends that I passionately argued the election had been stolen and that Mr. Gore would be the better president. I was one of the
signatories to the pompously titled "Emergency Committee of Concerned
Citizens 2000," which took full-page ads in the New York Times demanding a
revote in Palm Beach County, Fla. I wrote op-eds for Salon.com and the New
York Daily News. On television talk shows from MSNBC to Fox News's popular
"The O'Reilly Factor," I made the case for Mr. Gore. In thousands of e-mails,
I urged voters to deluge Clay Roberts, director of Florida's Division of
Elections, with appeals for a recount.
Of course, I did not know whether the election had gone for Mr. Gore or
George W. Bush. As a partisan, I did not care. I was convinced that Mr. Gore
was by far the best-qualified candidate and the man most fit to lead the U.S.
Mr. Bush was not only untested nationally, but he seemed to me bereft of the
character or intellect to become a real leader, and I feared that four years,
and possibly eight, under Mr. Bush would set the country back.
How wrong I was. Since the murderous terror attacks on the World Trade Center
and the Pentagon, President Bush has come alive in a way I did not think
possible. It was as though the attack on America--which he rightly called an
"act of war" from the start--gave him a focus and clarity I had not earlier
seen.
If there was a single event that convinced me my initial feelings were wrong,
it was the President's rather remarkable speech to the country and a joint
session of Congress last Thursday. Like Franklin Roosevelt or Winston
Churchill, he rallied a country's spirit, he had the courage to tell us the
bad news that the upcoming battle would be neither swift nor easy, and he
declared that those who would destroy our culture and values would not
prevail.
I had always found Mr. Bush stiff in his scripted speeches. But last Thursday
he was infused with passion and outrage. His sincerity was heartfelt, and
boosted almost all who listened to him. And precisely because we all know he
is not a masterful orator, the power of his words and the forcefulness of his
delivery carried even more impact. He rose to this most important occasion.
Sometimes historians wonder whether great leaders are made by the crises they
confront, or whether they would be great leaders even in untroubled times.
More often than not, real leadership flourishes when faced with imminent
threats and dangers. That is what America faces at the start of the 21st
century from a radical perversion of Islam. And President Bush showed all of
us who doubted him, and who voted against him, that he is indeed a leader.
There will be numerous tests for him in the long battle ahead. But, as of
now, he has converted many of us to admirers, and he deserves our complete
support. The entire administration, from Colin Powell to Donald Rumsfeld to
Dick Cheney, inspires more confidence as we embark on this uncertain war than
we likely would have had in any Gore administration. I must sadly admit that Bill Clinton, for whom I voted twice, could not have delivered that same clear speech last Thursday. His almost compulsive need to please all sides would have prevented him from casting the issues as starkly or as unequivocally.
My late father used to tell me that one of the hallmarks of good character is
the courage to admit mistakes. Most people who lock themselves into a public
position want to keep defending their original stance, even when in their
heart they know subsequent events have proven them incorrect.
Well, I was vocal last year in stating my firm belief that the wrong man was
elected president. Now I am compelled to admit I was mistaken. The best man
for this incredibly hard campaign is now President. I suspect many of my
fellow Democrats feel exactly the same way.
***********************************************
Pseudo-Military History, American unleashed by Victor Davis Hanson, author
most recently of Carnage and Culture: Landmark Battles in the Rise of Western
Power. National Review, September 24, 2001
The bombings of the last two weeks have raised a number of analogies with
wars of the past, nearly all of them false and, in fact, dangerous.
Afghanistan
We are hectored ad nauseam about the horror of a dreaded landlocked and
rugged Afghanistan, the quagmire that has swallowed Alexander the Great, the
19th-century British colonialists, and Soviet Communists alike. Yet
Alexander, in fact, did overrun Afghanistan, and with fewer than 30,000
troops, despite factional rivalry in his army and his self-destructive
murders of his own top lieutenants. Britain withdrew because of the errors of
arrogance, logistics, and tactical incompetence, the Soviets largely on
account of the gift of billions of U.S. aid and weapons to their enemies, and
their own foolhardy and evil attempt to wipe out Islam. The Russian army, in
the last decade of Communism, was not the force that stopped Hitler in the
far more difficult street-fighting at Stalingrad.
Also unlike the prior invaders, Americans are prepared to strike with no
illusions about the ease of their task and with no wish for conquest, lucre,
or obeisance. We are not arrogant or naive as past armies were; and we have
no interest in occupying the country or in turning the people from medieval
Islam to the benefits of popular American culture. Our mission is simply to
destroy the Taliban; the tragic chaos that follows will be no worse than what
exists now. The destruction of the Taliban can be accomplished through
concerted air attacks against their conventional military installations and
terrorist camps, as counterinsurgency teams and commandos target their
leadership, and mobile ground forces, perhaps with indigenous forces, advance
on the major cities.
Vietnam
The chimaeras of Vietnam are often raised. Few conflicts are more
misunderstood. Then we were fighting a distant war against foes supplied on
their borders by our two chief nuclear rivals, China and the Soviets. Our
target list against the North was small and it often shrank. We defined
victory as creating a democratic, enlightened culture where none had existed
before. The draft ensured that our elite youth in universities would take to
the streets. Even with all that, our military forces fought superbly. At the
so-called bloodbath at Hue, the U.S. Marines lost 147, killed over 5,000 of
the enemy, and freed the city, in the worst street-fighting since the Korean
War. The siege of Khe Sahn was an enemy failure and resulted in 50 communist
dead for each American lost. In the horrific Tet offensive, a surprised
American military inflicted 40, 000 fatalities upon the attackers while
losing fewer than 2,000.
Vietnam itself was a defeat, but this was largely due to politics. Yet the
political landscape of contemporary America is hardly comparable. Our home
soil has now been attacked; we have lost nearly as many civilians as we did
soldiers at Shiloh and Pearl Harbor combined. Nor is the country likely to
see an American war as the nexus of racial, sexual, and cultural unrest.
Instead, most Americans are slowly accepting the grim reality that our
enemies, far from apologizing for the slaughter, wish to kill even thousands
more of us at work, in our streets, and in our beds.
Israel
Other choruses have chanted, "Israel could not wipe out terrorism, so how
could we?'" Again, the analogy is false, and should be apparent immediately
in the grim reality of the post-September 11 world: It is safer to fly on El
Al than on United, and the towers of Tel Aviv are apparently more secure than
those in lower Manhattan. Israel's collective losses from the much-feared
Palestinian uprising are far less than those inflicted against the
terrorists. Indeed, Middle Eastern fundamentalists have now killed more
Americans than all the Israelis lost to terrorism in the last three decades,
and perhaps from the inception of the Jewish state. But far more important,
in the past a tiny Israel has been isolated, with no financial, cultural, or
economic assistance in its struggle from Europe or others in the eastern
Mediterranean, states that at least could have ostracized terrorist hosts and
supporters. In contrast, we have the power to shutdown or, better yet,
physically destroy, banks, communications, and corporations that facilitate,
encourage, or tolerate the terrorism of our enemies.
Unending War
A decade of war is often promised. But rarely in history do we see such
lengthy fighting. The European civil conflicts of the Seven (1756-1763),
Thirty (1618-1648), or Hundred Years' Wars (1337-1453) were marked by
cyclical rather than continual battles; even the nightmares of the Civil War,
and the two world wars of the past century, lasted fewer than five years. The
tragic fact is that since classical times, war in Western society is truly
destructive when it pits Western power against Western power. Caesar and
Pompey and their followers killed more Romans than did Hannibal; more Greeks
were killed in single intramural battles in the Peloponnesian War than in all
the fighting against Persians at Marathon, Thermopylae, Salamis, and Plataea
combined. Alexander lost fewer than a 1,000 soldiers in three pitched battles
against the Persians while destroying an empire of 70 million. His greatest
worry was not Afghani tribesmen or Bactrian cavalry but tough Greek
mercenaries.
Zealots
The much-feared Cetshwayo and his dreaded Zulu militarist state of some
200,000 were annihilated in less than a year at a cost of fewer than 2,000
British dead. The Mahdists, ensconced at Khartoum and swollen with British
blood, promised a jihad to end all jihads; instead they were annihilated by
Kitchener. Hernan Cortes, despite seeing the beating hearts of his men ripped
out at Tenochtitlan, wrecked an enraged empire of millions with fewer than
2,500 Castilians. We should not always be proud of these bloody
accomplishments, but in military terms they remind us that, for good or evil,
the chief fear of a Western army is one like itself. Yet, that horrific
scenario seems unlikely in the present conflict. Real powers that have
elements of Westernized discipline, advanced weapons, logistics, and training, Russia, India, and China, are more likely to aid or remain neutral than
to oppose us. If anything, the United States may find itself closer to such
strong states as it distances itself from weak and "moderate" Arab regimes.
Microbes, Nerve Gas, and Atoms
We are told that we must worry constantly about biological or nuclear
weapons. Such caution is prudent and will remain wise advice for the next
decade. Microbes and atoms are formidable threats, which, unlike conventional
arms, leave lethal, material aftershocks that ripple outward from their
points of explosion. Yet Americans must pause to digest fully the magnitude
of their own catastrophe of September 11, over 6,000 dead in our cities, far
more than what terrorists' nerve gas killed in Japan, and more than the toll
of Saddam's reported use of biological agents before and after the Gulf War.
Physicists could do us a great favor by calculating the combined destructive
power of the thousands of gallons of metal and fuel striking the towers of
the World Trade Center at high speed. Surely the magnitude of that
conflagration was equivalent to two or three kilotons of TNT, in other words
comparable to the ruin left by a small, primitive nuclear device of the type
perhaps now in terrorists' hands. We should be vigilant, and angry but
realize that we have endured a horrible attack, and are still more powerful,
not enfeebled, for our ordeal. And because we know that our enemies have
access to biological weapons and perhaps nuclear bombs, and indeed wish to
kill our children, it should make our resolve stronger, not weaker.
What Is Ahead?
An annus terribilis is upon us, the most unpredictable year since 1941,
ushering in a frightening contest that we did not seek, but now must enter
and win. Yet the study of military history should offer us more reassurance
than dejection. This is the first occasion since World War II in which we can
and should use the entire arsenal of our defense. The strategies of halting
before Baghdad and lecturing Saddam Hussein have been shown bankrupt; cruise
missiles shall bring us no comfort, much less deterrence. The world has been
turned upside down; with that upheaval, the voices of proportionality,
accommodation, and consultation are discredited and now relegated to
increasingly rare appearances on late-night television. Good and kind men
like Sandy Berger, William Cohen, and Warren Christopher have been shown not
prudent as they promised, but in fact reckless through their past inaction.
The terrorists, in their eagerness for blood, have blundered terribly, both
in their barbarity and in their timing. It is hard to arouse Americans,
especially in the last two decades of their greatest wealth, leisure, and
license. Yet they have accomplished a radical reversal in temperament and
ideology in mere days by killing innocents and striking both at the heart of
American power and prestige and at the very heartstrings of innate American
kindness. There is a new administration different in character from the past
that in turn now governs a changed citizenry. The next bloody months will not
be the easy police actions of Grenada and Panama. Perhaps they will require
more sacrifice than the fighting in the Balkans and the Gulf War, whose
combined American dead was comparable to a bloody week on our freeways. But
our war to come will not be Vietnam either. And this time, if we choose to,
we shall prevail. The terrorists and their sympathetic hosts have no idea
what they have unleashed.
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 22:12:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 62384)
How Ironic - Maytag Repair Man Has Job Security
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010926/business_consumer_recall_dc_1.html
Snippit:
Maytag Recalls 50,000 Big Oven Gas Ranges
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Maytag Corp (NYSE:MYG). agreed to recall 50,000 Amana Big Oven gas ranges because they can emit high levels of carbon monoxide when the broiler or self- cleaning function is used, federal safety regulators said Wednesday.
Black Blade: On a lighter note, the Maytag Repair Man finally has some job security. (Those in the US and Canada can relate to this one)
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 22:03:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 62383)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" adds several thousand more. Looks to get much worse. The unemployment numbers will look absolutely dismal though the usual excuses will be made and reference will be made to the terrorist attacks. The "Bone Pile" growth was accelerating prior to the recent tragedy. More earnings warnings are on the way and along with those warnings will come more layoff announcements. Keep accumulating Gold and Silver insurance and add that bit of balance to the investment portfolio.
darkhorse
(9/25/01; 21:50:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 62382)
Silver shortage starting to show?
from the "Breaking News" segment of Silver-Investor
"...there is no silver of any size for sale at all in Europe."
****************************
Can any of the Europeans lingering here confirm this? Is silver really virtually impossible to obtain?
Horatio
(9/25/01; 21:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62381)
Barclays and Morgan
Bankers are not to be trusted.
Barclays was holding 10,000 oz of silver for someone and a small amount of gold in a custodial situation.They converted it to paper holding without his knowledge or permission .When he discovered what they had done several years later,He sold it since he did not want to have anything to do with paper assets,then they lost 5000 oz of the silver until he proved he had purchased it.They finally accounted for it.It took him 6 months and he is still extracating myself from thier clutches.
As far as Morgan goes I heard they bought 300 puts on United Air for Osama ,made him a tidy sum with a good fill
and he thanked them by trying to destroy half thier business. Greed has its price.
Belgian
(9/25/01; 20:58:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 62380)
@ Auspec with entousiasm
* YES * Sir, You perfectly know that I stand with you as solid as a rock, in that same "vieuw" on mother metal !
I do share (silently) your enthousiasm and perseverance, at this 5 o'clock morning hour without any beer.
It must and will break, whatever the (impossible) timing !
And not a single hair on my head (still got them all), that doubts, it will be in the thousands of undefendable US$/ounce ! Only advised to myself.
Note : Tony Blair came out and spoke some affirmative language, indicating that they feel that the coalition for the war, with an ever changing name, "seems", to be ready for Action ! Good or bad omen ? Nighty.
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 20:54:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 62379)
OPEC and the Price of Oil
Before anyone gets too excited about the falling price of oil, it should be remembered that the standing policy of OPEC is that if the price of oil falls below $22.00/bbl for 10 trading days, then production cuts are automatic. This raises the question: How much pressure is on OPEC to abandon this policy? OPEC now is used to the trading range of $22.00 to $25.00/bbl. The real problem for oil in the US is refining capacity, infrastructure bottlenecks, and EPA mandated boutique fuels, not the supply of oil coming to the US market. As far as oil supply is concerned, many in the US power structure are pushing George Dubya to attack Iraq and "finish the job." Saudi has now backed away from supporting the US against the Al-Qaeda Cult headed by Osama bin Laden and the Afghani Taliban collaborators. Both Iraq and Saudi just might retaliate by not only refusing the US the use of Saudi military installations, but by restricting oil supply. Iran has not committed one way or another, however, they may just "go along" if other OPEC members decide to "sit this one out" and restrict oil supply as well.
"Interesting Times"
- Black Blade
Horatio
(9/25/01; 20:52:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62378)
Make My Day!
George Bush has just been saved from oblivion ,an economy going into the tank ,unemployment skyrocketing ,government having to massage the numbers to avoid panic.Gold carry trade was needed to create liquidity for the banks and hide hedge funds dirivative losses.
And NOW a WAR TIME Economy! is here to save him from depression.It don't get no better than this.
Osama you made my day! You will now be the poster boy for all the ills including the ones you created !
Maybe now Gold carry trade won't be needed anymore, we have a war to provide liquidity !Osama solved the squabbling about how to spend the surplus.
God works in mysterious ways!
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 20:39:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 62377)
Price Guessing Contest
####$291.85####
Why? I think that there is still a state of confusion in the stock markets. Interest rates and bank savings yeilds are at par with the BLS stated rate of annual inflation. It may be a while longer until the realization that losses are mounting from declining paper investments and then there will be a rush out of the remaining value of equities and bonds, and into hard assets like Gold. Even then, there is likely to be a growing divergence between the spot and physical price as demand for the "hard asset" grows.
Belgian
(9/25/01; 20:36:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62376)
@ De Ronin # 62346
Pleased to meet you Sir.
What evidence are you looking for, than an instant decline from 30$ >>20,1$ in 14 trading days, and for everyone on the globe to see ? Add hereby the OPEC statement (geopolitically oriented) that it is in-opportune to cut production in these extra-ordinarry times, and realize together with us that the financial-machine (beast) has all the tools in the house to squeeze out the last drop of human blood.
Is it important (or relevant) to know, how exactly they proceeded ? imvho, it isn't, because it is the same systematic used everywhere.
The dramatic POO move is flagrant evidence that at this particular moment, its Valuation is very, very critical for the global economy and that of the US (newest of new economy-?), as last bastion, in particular.
What is more important now, is to observe how the price-recovery, will evolve in accordance to the geopolitical evolution ! Will OPEC, be able to regain their price setting force, without any sanctionning ? Or will there be Gold-Compensation ? Will there be another oil for euro, trial balloon, as a counter threath ? Or will the oil-producers be humiliated with another 10$ price for their barril (least possibility) ? Will there be a sudden breakthrough in the Israel/Palastine-drama, and cause the much needed tension-relief ? What will happen when Osama Bin Laden is caught and brought to justice with severe punishment by an american court ? A lot of wild cards...don't you think so ?
The recent intervieuw on BBC's Hard Talk with the Saudi Ambassador to London, was an expression of pragmatism and radicalism. There is *pressure* from inside Saudi Arabia !
We can only observe and try to interpret the POO in function of the developments, evolving. We (me) don't have any evidence or notion on these inside-talks and agreements that are so decisive. Did you also see the total indifference of POG against the POO-move ? Disconnected !
Hope to hear some more of your insights on the matter. Thanks !
auspec
(9/25/01; 20:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 62375)
PREDICTIONS!!!
I am holding steadfast in spite of 3/4 of this year being gone!!! Let me repeat: "There is no way the cabal is going to get out of 2001 in one 'peace'" {I did say that and fully meant it, but didn't see all this WAR stuff manifesting, at least not to this degree and in this way}. So will clarify with just a few months left in the year. They CANNOT contain the gold price as it has been for the last number of years through Jan 1, 2002! Too many shenanigans, too much leverage, too much utter foolishness. It's not nice to fool Mother Metal! Many of us will be in new Orleans for GATA meetings and an investment conference {see, no ad there}, in late November and we will be CELEBRATING the inevitable having already occurred!
It's great to make fun of these buffoons that make time predictions for certain events, no? I enjoy it. Clif Droke comes to mind with his SM crash by 1-01. So why step out on a limb? Why not, it's not like I'm writing in Time magazine or even have the readership of CD. Can't be too many folks here anyway and how{e} many give me the scroll by?? So here it is friend Belgian from the land of 100 beers, an incitement to riot in the gold markets. I feel it in my porotic {probably not a real word} and slumping bones!
WHY do I feel this strongly about this prediction? Because of the utter arrogance, audacity, and stupidity of those that think they can control EVERYTHING! You gotta be kidding me. What historic gall, while all the time ignoring history.
So where does this take us POG wise? Hell, I don't know, there I will not go, not {quite} that brazen, but I will say there is going to be a very significant amount of money made on this VERY NEXT move in gold and SILVER!! Smiles all around. Be there {!}, and if you are fortunate to have missed the majority of this severe bear market in gold, silver, and resource stocks these last 4-5 years, be most grateful. Load up while bypassing all the misery. Such an opportunity for those with clear vision. THIS IS INVESTMENT ADVICE [might as well stick it all the way out}!!
What are you waiting for?
auspec{ulator}
P.S. What if I'm wrong? "There is absolutely NO way THEY can make it through the year 2002 w/o caving in to............"
Netking
(9/25/01; 20:18:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 62374)
**** The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 09/10/01 ****
**** The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 09/10/01 ****
(Admin/MK I have corrected some annoying spelling errors & have herewith reposted, sorry - Netking)
True.
September 11th 2001 was the day of: "The Death Of innocence And Freedom" in the USA and the Western world as we have known it. A strong statement, yes, but things will be different for all of us and for our children from now on.
Sure society has faced it's share of problems, fears, conspiracies, challenges, impasses and crisis's in every area of life and functionality as we have known it . . . . but always it's people have pulled together and have overcome these challenges as a proud nation standing strong building on what are founding fathers had achieved.
As a country the US and Western society we've had our share of detractors & self proclaimed enemies. In most cases we have agreed to disagree with their posturing & the rhetoric they fired across our bows, our awesome strength rarely needing to be used as deterrence to any who might foolishly challenge.
Now we find hidden enemies with cruel agendas emerging in the U.S. and overseas with a dangerous new desire to destroy what we have laboured through blood, sweat and tears to build over many generations. We now see the largest military assembly since World War II and in the most volatile region of the world. Terms like "Suitcase Nukes, Anthrax and Jihad" are becoming household words for our children, even tragic school shootings seem tame in comparison.
The economy and financial markets already on a path towards an unknown future and a possible cyclical recession or depression have gyrated strongly out of their usual 'orbit' and will take many years to recover themselves. Shares as a store of wealth for our families have been dealt a savage blow, many smiling "patriotic purchasers" have seen their family's net worth drop up to 15+% in a week.
Peoples confidence, trust & faith in their security , and in that of their country, their wealth and their lifestyle and even their fellow citizens have been cruelly stripped away from them by an act of terror they had no control over or knowledge of.
Many will begin to revisit that which is really important to them, they will ask themselves; "Am I building my 'house' upon the rock or the sand", their family and their God may feature higher in the order of priorities in the days ahead, all part of a complete self re-evaluation process.
As the search for security and stability for the peoples lives gathers pace, Gold will again step forward. We may ask; "Gold, where have you been all this time!" Gold may quietly & confidently reply; "I've been here friend, I've been here, serving humanity for 2,500 years, I'm pleased to have made your acquaintance!"
I may not know know what the future will always hold, but I do know who holds the future.
I know I can depend on Gold as a store of value and I know that no matter what happens in the days ahead my kids will be able to as well.
Kind regards to you all,
- Netking
CoBra(too)
(9/25/01; 20:02:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 62373)
I've posted the whole essay before - Neat Summary by Bigsky
Though here's a brilliant exerpt from Bigsky:
"We already been mislead into financial slavery through replacement of gold and silver by fiat money -conjured out of thin air by State and Bank by stealth! The anchors of ultimate savings, gold and silver have for the greater part been subtly abducted by the State through excessive taxation, if not directly confiscated. Stalin did it, Hitler did it and Roosevelt did it. The Bank for its part has nothing more to do than simply wait for the taxes to take effect and then catch the destitute in their loan shark nets, wrest people's last remaining golden securities from them and chain everyone to its iron debt empire.
Under cover of the exceptional growth of prosperity brought on by the great technical advance of the 20th Century, unnoticed, on the sly, the State and Banks in collusion wormed their way into the citizens lives to become the greatest threat to freedom.
Besides Evil Empires of physical force, an even mightier, hitherto unknown kind of Evil Empire has risen: The anonymous Totalitarian Capitalism. It has nothing of the likes of the solid broad based natural free market capitalism on which the West prospered over centuries. Totalitarian Capitalism is already near controlling everybody and everything: the circulation of currencies, banking and credit, the government, the Central Banks, the markets, the media, education, most industries and trade. Still lurching in the background, it is relentlessly encroaching, corrupting whatever it touches, usurping whatever assets it can lay its hands on, putting the shackles of debt on its unsuspecting victims under the cloak of make believe, falsehoods and loaned prosperity."
"Totalitarian Capitalism" smells like socialism soviet style. It didn't work in Russia and we are about to prove it doesn't work here either."
Not much to add - cb2
PS: While I don't know who Hans Schicht is, I presume he's one of the old "soap" Schichts, who sold out their Ch(z)eck empire to Unilever - pretty clever!
USAGOLD
(9/25/01; 19:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62372)
A Call To Contest. . .Call to Contest. . . .Call To Contest
A CALL TO CONTEST! A CALL TO CONTEST! A CALL TO CONTEST!
Knights and Ladies:
A POSTING CONTEST CALLING ON YOUR MOST REFINED SKILLS
(And I'll bet you think I've forgotten how much fun these
contests can be. . . .)
We have endured much over the past several weeks, and we have not
had a contest in a very long time -- two good reasons for a
little diversion, or maybe that's the wrong word. For what this
contest demands of its participants is some "soul" searching. . .
some "political economy" searching. . . some "belief" searching.
As such, many will not think it relaxation, but a call on our
greatest skills in erudition and posting. This, it no doubt will
be. There are those who might think this is not the time for a
contest, but I would say there could not be a better time. As we
reach into the depth of our own souls perhaps we can help our
fellow goldmeisters, our friends and associates.
The statement brought to this Table Round is as simple as it is
direct, and to start each post it must be answered "True" or
"False". All else follows.
The statement is this:
The world today is a different place today than it was 9/10/01.
TRUE or FALSE.
Each entry must bring the discussion around to gold (naturally)
and must be at least 50 words in length, though you can post as
much as you wish. One link in the customary place to illustrate
is both encouraged and allowed.
Each entry must be marked in the subject box as:
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
(Surrounded by stars)
Ignore gold and disqualify your entry.
The winner will receive a pre-1933 gold British sovereign from
the Royal USAGOLD TREASURY. The runners-up will receive each a
one-tenth ounce gold U.S. Eagle -- two will be awarded.
Each first-time poster --either in the price guessing contest or
the posting contest -- will receive a U.S. Silver Eagle. If you
are a first time poster, you must e-mail the
sitemaster@usagold.com notice that you are such. Please do not
try to slip one by us, each claim will be checked. We very much
encourage our lurkers to take this as an opportunity to
participate in the discussion. Silver has motivated many of our
best posters to post the first time. May it motivate you.
(Marie, to the vaults! Make ready the coin! Count up our stacks!
The Contest is About to Begin. . . . .)
PRICE GUESSING CONTEST:
In addition to the posting contest, there will be an additional
contest calling on participants price-guessing skills -- and what
better time than now than to call on those skills? Whoever is
closest to the settlement price of the December contract on the
Comex for the Friday close, September 28, 2001 wins a pre-1933
British sovereign. There will be no runners-up. He or she who
first claims a price owns it and no other can take it. Choose
carefully. Each price pick must be accompanied by 25 words why
this price is the one you choose. All entries must be on the
board no later than Thursday September 26, 2001 10AM mountain
time. No 25 word commentary, no prize. No late entries will be
accepted.
All price entries must be surrounded by #### signs, as follows:
#### $875 #####
The posting contest will go from this moment until Sunday,
September 30, 2001 midnight mountain time.
Only one entry per category per contestant.
I wish you all well, my friends, and good luck.
May the best poster win.
mikal
(09/25/01; 19:45:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62371)
PRICE GUESSING CONTEST
###### $289 ####### The Cabal will sell the price of gold down to $289 Friday. If POG is allowed to stay near $292 in the short term for too long, the elitists would be forced to change the rules too soon on the futures exchanges and in the derivatives and bond markets. Gradually as shorts are unwound and positions exited, the cap on gold will proceed higher until planned and/or unexpected events release gold's intrinsic value to relatively free negotiation worldwide.
Solomon Weaver
(9/25/01; 19:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62370)
Price guessing contest
####287.55####
After a week of closure....followed by a week of heavy SM index losses, this week is volatile.
Gold paper shorts will recover a bit of nerve and will pull December gold down..with longs selling to take profits and new shorts selling to the longs.
By October 10, gold will have rallied to pierce $310.00 and fall back to just above $300.
slingshot
(9/25/01; 19:34:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 62369)
CoBra(Too) Msg#62366
Rabid Peter the brown rabbit eater....Pop goes the weasel?
ROFLMAO.
Sorry, need some sleep. Working long hours.
Rabid Peter, HaHaHa.
Slingshot
Wky_Woodsman
(9/25/01; 19:29:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62368)
Price Guessing Contest
####$289.35####
Commentary:
The market powers that need the dollar to support the illusion struggle on with the ammunition they hold. We are maintaining course. Steady as she goes. Time to clear baffles. Then a little more forward.
The Invisible Hand
(9/25/01; 19:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62367)
What happened to this?
[GATA] Back from another trip to Washington: The gold story is going to break
By Bill Murphy
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
September 6, 2001
The GATA story will be all over the world press in the
weeks to come. One story will lead to another. As the
Reg Howe complaint hearing on October 9 approaches,
"Read All About It" type of stories will surface more
in the financial press. The more the facts are checked
out, the greater the aspersions will be cast on The
Gold Cartel and on their apologists. They will no
longer be able to hide what they have done and to keep
the gold truth in the dark -- where vampires like them
thrive on the blood of innocents.
CoBra(too)
(9/25/01; 19:13:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62366)
W(G)C -
... The above stands for something more un-au-spectively
in my part of the world, than can be seen by the inclusion of the word "World" and the delusion of the word "Gold" in a "Closet". In other words WC stands for Water Closet in Germany and maybe in the neihborhood! Pardon, Ici!?
Oh, yeah, pardon me, didn't mean to be mean. After all the Brits invented the WC, long before the Jacuzzi and they still call taps -faucets, even if they're not gilded - remember the G in between WC, which may not be American Standard of the WgC.
Now Randy tells me to listen to Rhona O'Connel of WGC, formerly T.Hoare/Canaccord - the firm of the rabid Peter, the brown Rabbit eater - to believe the wisdom of turtle necks or turn'ips'. ... Hicks΄ ... pop goes the weasel ...
... and WGC to WC ... cb2 ... so sorry to see defections ... gory!
slingshot
(9/25/01; 19:00:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62365)
Doomsday Clock
Which way did it move on 9/11/01?
Slingshot
MarkeTalk
(9/25/01; 18:43:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 62364)
The View from the Trenches
As many of the readers (posters and lurkers) of this site already know, I work here at Centennial Precious Metals. I post from time to time, time and energy permitting, of course. I thought it would be instructive for all to know how people and attitudes towards gold have changed since the events of September 11th.
Going back to early summer, gold and most people went on vacation. Prices as well as sales were steady but subdued. Premiums on bullion and pre-1933 coins were languishing at the lower end of their ranges. Supplies were abundant in all categories. I used to say around the office on some days that I could not give the stuff away because people could care less. Even established gold bug clients who had expressed an earlier interest in buying more coins--either held in an IRA or held personally--did not want to hear from me. Some even told me that gold would not rise again because the cabal had everything under control.
As the summer progressed, sales continued at a steady pace with new converts to gold picking up the fantastic bargains in $20 gold MS63-65 grades (some of which have jumped $200 per coin since June). The smaller European coins were priced at near multi-year lows. When August arrived, so did the market doldrums. I am convinced after 10 years with Centennial that I should take my vacation in August because everyone else does. I even think that gold goes on vacation as well.
During this time, I posted on this site that I expected stocks to fall after Labor Day and for gold to rise substantially for the next six months. I read a number of advisories and watch both fundamental and technical indicators. The Bradley Indicator showed that the stock market would top by no later than September 7th and then head precipitously downhill until early December. No reason was given for the decline but that the market would just collapse. As far as my predictions went, I told my clients on the telephone as well as on this discussion forum to expect $350 by the end of the year. I even went out on a limb and predicted that we would see a terrorist attack sometime during the Jewish holy days (September 18-28th) and that perceptions about markets would change dramatically. I expected the attack to occur overseas in the Middle East. I told people the following: In the gold business, it is better to be one day, one week, one month or even one year too early than one day too late.
Fast forward to September 11th, the day of the attacks on New York and Washington. Since it happened so early in the morning, the gold market had just been open 30 minutes. The stock market never opened that day. After the attack, officials closed all markets immediately. But trading in gold, oil and some other commodities was still going strong in London. Overseas gold bolted higher by almost $20/oz. and oil jumped by about $4/barrel. Although our markets were officially closed, I knew that clients would want to speak with me anyway. So I headed for the office. When I arrived, I was met by a barrage of unending phone calls from new and old clients who were desperate to buy. It was similar to late September 1999 when gold jumped $84 in a single week. My, what a difference ONE day makes in the gold market--in all markets for that matter.
Later that day we were able to establish a market for our clients and we were back in business. As the orders came in, supplies began to dwindle. As supplies dwindled, premiums started to rise. You have to keep in mind that no shipments were moving because President Bush grounded all air traffic. That meant that pre-1933 coins from Switzerland were put on hold. Austrian Philharmonic gold coins from Austria were put on hold.
Closer to home the available supplies of U.S. Eagles from the U.S. Mint were going quickly. At one point, our wholesaler refused to sell anymore to us because he could not be assured of a fresh supply. As the supply ran out, premiums on coins rose dramatically. As an example, in August I was selling U.S. Gold Eagles for $10 above spot. On September 11th, they jumped to $20 above spot before supplies ran out. Now they have settled back to $17 above spot.
Now I have been expecting such a day as many of my posts indicate. But what surprised me most was the attitude of the buying public which expected there to be an inexhaustible supply of gold coins ready for sale. I remember telling more than one new client the following: "This is not Wal-Mart. I just can't go down to the store and buy gold off the shelf." Americans have become so accustomed to "just-in-time delivery/inventory" thanks to FedEx and UPS and the practices of corporate America. But it just does not work that way in the gold market. Gold is precious, i.e. it is hard to find in the earth, and it is time consuming and expensive to dig out and refine it. If there can be any good to come from the tragedy of September 11th, maybe now public perceptions about gold are changing.
Finally, as an footnote, I want to mention that we here at Centennial are forward-looking and pro-active. We take great pride in educating ourselves and our clients. For example, we used to store our gold in the vault in the basement of the World Trade Center but we moved everything out in January of this year. We were concerned about a shutdown of the markets, due to either terrorism or a stock market crash, and we did not want our gold to be inaccessible in New York City. As nice as it may be to visit New York (I distinctly remember my trip there and my visit to the top of the World Trade Center on a Sunday afternoon), we felt it was not prudent to store our gold there. So we moved it to Delaware. I feel very sorry for our competitors and their clients who still have their gold stored there. Eventually, it will be recovered but it may take 6-12 months.
In closing, if I can say just one thing: If any of you are thinking of an initial purchase of gold or adding to your existing gold portfolio, don't delay. The next attack--either from America or the terrorists--will surely impact the gold market positively. To all of my existing clients and prospective clients who have spoken with me, just pick up the telephone and call me to discuss strategy and availability. My motto is: Don't be a day late or a dollar short. Do it now.
GC
Netking
(9/25/01; 18:34:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62363)
**** The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 09/10/01 ****
**** The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 09/10/01 ****
True.
September 11th 2001 was the day of: "The Death Of innocence And Freedom" in the USA and the Western world as we have known it. A strong statement, yes, but things will be different for all of us and for our children from now on.
Sure society faced it's share of problems, fears, conspiracies, challenges, impasses and crisis's in every area of life and society functionality as we have known it . . . . but always for it's people to pull together and overcome these challenges as a proud nation standing strong building on what are founding fathers had achieved.
As a country the US and Western society we've had our share of detractors & self proclaimed enemies. In most cases we agreed to disagree with their posturing & the rhetoric they fired across our bows, our awesome strength rarely needing
to be used as a deterrence to any who might foolishly challenge. Now we find hidden enemies with cruel agendas emerging in the US and overseas with a dangerous new desires to destroy what we have laboured through blood, sweat and tears to build over many generations. We see the largest military assembly since World War II and in the most volatile region of the world. Terms like "Suitcase Nukes, Anthrax and Jihad" are becoming household words for our children, even our tragic school shootings seem tame in comparison.
The economy and financial markets already on a path towards an unknown future and a possible cyclical recession or depression have girated strongly out of their usual 'orbit' and will take many years to recover themselves. Shares as a store of wealth for our families stores of value has been dealt a savage blow, many smiling "patriotic purchasers" have seen their family's net worth drop up to 15+% in a week.
Peoples confidence, trust & faith in their security (financial & personal), that of their country, their wealth and their lifestyle and even their fellow citizens have been cruely stripped away from them by an act of terror they had no control over or knowledge of.
Many will begin to revisit that which is really important to them, they will ask themselves; "Am I building my 'house' upon the rock or the sand", their family and their God may feature higher in the order of priorities in the days ahead, all part of a complete self re-evaluation process.
As the peoples search for security and stability for their lives gathers pace Gold will again step forward. We may ask; "Gold, where have you been all this time!" Gold may quietly & confidently reply; "I've been here friend, I've been here, serving humanity for 2,500 years, I'm please to have make your acquaintance!"
I may not know know what the future will always hold, but I know who holds the future. I know I can depend on Gold as a store of value and I know that no matter what happens in the days ahead my kids will be able to as well.
kind regargds to you all,
- Netking
auspec
(9/25/01; 18:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 62362)
Fessin Up, MK
I now realize that I recently mentioned a box of ACME gold that that roadrunner was always totin' about, in a conversation/post with Belgian. That was a TYPO only as I meant to say CPM gold!
By the way, is that per post or per indefinite co. ad? Do you have a lay-away plan or work on contingency {smile}?
Best regards to the house!
a
slingshot
(9/25/01; 18:29:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 62361)
Wky Woodsman Msg#62360
Aye, Steady as you go.
Slingshot
Wky_Woodsman
(9/25/01; 18:15:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 62360)
**** The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
I humbly approach the esteemed table and, for the first time, present myself before you Sir Knights and Fair Ladies. I am Sir Wky_Woodsman, long abiding on the timbered ridges of "Lurkerland", but now I venture forth, drawn to the table by the lure of Sir MK's offer, to claim my "shiny one".
An unassuming guy living a pastoral life in the heartland for the greater part of the year, I must confess that when the winds blow icy and the wintry snows threaten the dormant countryside, I retreat to the fair islands of Hawaii to wait the return of Spring. However, I am always connected to the wise counsel of the table.
I have slept in the shadow of old glory for more than two and a score. I have looked into the eyes of the Russians and the Korcoms at 20,000 feet and I have slept under the starry skies of the Arabian desert. Though they are carefully stowed away now, my shield remains strong and my sword is still finely hone.
The table seeks testimony in the matter of the events of 9-11. My reply is False!
The admonitions of George Washington are just as valid today as they were pre 9-11. Are the burdens of Empire worth it? I've mounted a map of Central Asia above me and it's a long way to Afghanistan from here. Bombing Afghanistan doesn't make any more sense to me than bombing Belgrade; future pipelines or not. Are we not about to battle some ghostly opponents of our dollar and political hegemony? George Washington plotted a course of minding our own business. How far we have strayed! We can remonstrate here over the reasons why a group of people did this to us but no one in the U.S. government is going to be persuaded by the discussions at the table. Sir Knights and Fair Ladies, you will not be riding off to Afghanistan! Nor will you be able to dissuade others.
Although you have no say as to whether or not there will be a war or a revenge bombing, there is an endeavor over which you have complete control. That is providing for yourself and your loved ones. My fellow knights and ladies, I submit that around this table the die has been cast. Our mutual understanding of the importance of gold as wealth is the bond amongst us, the reason we are gathered here. As prepared as we can be, we await the outcome of our collective decision. Our golden resolve, formulated long before the events of 9-11 remains the same.
The accumulation of some gold as wealth, the setting aside some fruit of our life's work, imparts to us both a sense of freedom and a sense of security. It sits there under our watchful eye, collecting no fiat interest but nevertheless a reassuring safe harbor. Our golden holdings are the same as they were before 9-11. Consider assets still in play as "investments"; they are sailing the same heavy seas that they were sailing prior to 9-11. On the one hand we have gold in the harbor while the alternatives are ships that have not come in yet.
Take heart fellow knights and ladies, you have prepared well for the future. Be calm! Steady as you go. Let the future come to you.
Respectfully,
Wky_Woodsman
da2g
(9/25/01; 18:02:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 62359)
contest
********The world is a different place since September 10, 2001***********
False.
The world is no different today than it was prior to that fateful day.
The American public is still at risk for a terrorist attack, although it perceives itself as less safe. There is still likely an array of chemical, nuclear, and biological agents that could be employed, although this is now soberly starting to be discussed.
The United States military is in control of the same staggering array of munitions and means of delivery, although these are now perceived by some as being ineffective against this "new enemy".
The United States stock market is still overvalued, as is the dollar, although this is starting to be perceived by the investing public.
We are still sailing in uncharted derivative waters.
The price of gold still languishes below USD 300, although more individuals are starting to perceive it as a viable investment alternative.
No, the world is no different. It is merely perceived as so.
site steward
(9/25/01; 17:58:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62358)
Current gold market
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010925/l25353688_1.html
Reuters reports:
------Rhona O'Connell, market analysis manager at the World Gold Council, said Internet-based bar and coin retailers continue to report strong interest, especially in the U.S. Dealers in New York were talking in terms of triple and quintuple normal demand, she said.------
Internet-based??? Good grief, what kind of flighty organizations might those be when the chips are down???
Centennial is brick and mortar, baby! See for yourself...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html
Just think of this USAGOLD.com website as Centennial's interactive Yellow Pages, and also as a timely information service to Centennial's clientele. Two important functions, all rolled into one simple web address -- www.USAGOLD.com
Thanks for looking in, and be sure to give Centennial a call!
R.
site steward
(9/25/01; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62357)
Precious metals comments in the news today...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010925/n25515732_1.html
While gold rose in New York trade, it was alone among the precious metals. Platinum group metals "fell sharply", according to Reuters, because "extra supply arrived in European markets with demand seen insufficient to absorb it."
Precious metals analyst Jim Pogoda told Reuters, "All other industrial commodities are expecting demand to be terrible and certainly that's reflected in the price. Gold will keep that safe-haven premium until the situation gets clarified."
Another dealer told Reuters, "`The lower stocks go, people get more nervous and pick up gold here and there."
But be careful! Not all gold investments are created equal, and attempts at gaining leverage (such as investing in mining companies) may achieve little other than grasping at wind.
Case in point: Reuters reported that this same dealer indicated, in their words, "North American producers also bargain hunted [i.e., unwound hedge positions], amid jitters that some mining companies, especially in Australia, were facing losses on their hedge books because of the rise in prices."
Physical gold will do you no harm. (Unless you drop it on your foot. But that's life... a sweet, sweet thing. Have you taken control of yours?)
R.
FluorideCommie
(9/25/01; 16:49:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62356)
PRICE GUESSING CONTEST
PRICE GUESSING CONTEST:
#### $287.50 #####
Since it is my understanding that we are guessing the "paper" price, I don't see any reason why it should vary outside the range it has been in the last 3 years or so (price spikes excluded). That said, I still think there is enough buying pressure to keep it at the moderate-high end of that range.
OK, maybe I'm just guessing!
FluorideCommie
(9/25/01; 16:39:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 62355)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
True.
The USA is no longer an untouchable safe haven. The confidence that the world and US citizens have placed in the security of the USA, its markets, its economy, and its dollar must now be reevaluated. If the US dollar is no longer a safe haven, what is? To those who frequent this forum, that's a rhetorical question with only one legitimate answer: GOLD!
PS In hindsite it was quite prophetic that my entry for the last Fifth Horseman contest was "WAR". I couldn't find the post, but I know that one of the scenarios I speculated on was a terrorist attack on the USA by Islamic fundamentalists. Hmmm. Don't recall winning anything for that.... :0)
BR549
(9/25/01; 16:30:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 62354)
The World Banks cooperate to choke off terrorists funds
http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,35048,00.html
"Switzerland, home to a third of the world's offshore wealth, pledged full backing for Washington's call to trace the funds that financed the suicide attacks in the United States and insisted its bank secrecy laws would not be a barrier."
Outstanding! What a change from 9/10/01 and what a victory for the World Aliance WAR Against Terrorism. (WAWAT). Not "America's New War" as CNN so inaccuraterly labels.
I would expect that any terrorists who can still access their bank accounts would begin liquidations ASAP in fiat, then to transfer their remaining assets to Gold. The WAWAT begins to hurt the murderers sponsors where it counts. The Taliban is down to only one country who still recognizes it now that Saudi Arabia has pulled their diplomats--our new best friend Pakistan and only in order to have at least one line of communications for unconditional surrender. The economic war on terrorism begins with a meaningful strategic economic war victories. bin Laden's $300MM is slowly disappearing along with the other terrorist's ability to buy new "suiciders" by not being able to finance their activities.
Will POG rise as a result of this conversion from fiat? Not in the short term but eventually the higher the demand for physical, the higher the future price.
BR549
slingshot
(9/25/01; 16:17:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62353)
*****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 09/10/01*****
TRUE.
What a difference a day makes. September 10,2001. We all awoke to our daily routine. Unaware of what was to befall the world. For most of us the trials and tribulations of the world were far away. We were safe and free to to go about our lives. September 11, 2001 what was in the recess of our minds, was now brought to center stage and the veil of complacecy lifted to show reality and all its horrors. The earth has not changed in size, but the inhabitants of her have made it smaller by there ability to advance in communication, travel, and distructive powers. Is the world a safer place? That would depend on how much good there is compared to the evil in her. Therein lies the balance of power. Yet belief is like the wind. As we believe in Santa Clause, yesterday or today, will we believe in him tomorrow. Same could be said for our government, our politics, and our financial institutions. Although they can be perceived as the building blocks of society, they possess the power to enslave. One could easily be a slave of debt as well as being chained. Today one must be aware of their actions, as to not unwhitingly enslave themselves. We have forgotten the principals of financial freedom and given control to the few that seek power. Thus making the world today a different place. Still hope springs eternal in the form of gold. Which has proven to be trustworthy over centuries. Gold, withstanding the test of time, launched many adventures, has beautified our temples and churches as well as ourselves. We have turned our backs on gold, but she still calls us. Gold is patient and awaits the fall of FIAT and will enrich those willing to believe in her.
Slingshot
goldquest
(9/25/01; 15:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 62352)
My WAG on the price of gold
BR549. I went back and read the rules! Thanks for the wake-up call!
I'll try again.
####$307.90####
It was two years tomorrow that the Washington Agreement was signed. This was a positive move forward for gold, even though we have had setbacks since. The numbers come from a meaningful date corresponding to this event.
Netking
(9/25/01; 15:28:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62351)
Another dimension - The PRC . . .
http://www.washtimes.com/national/default-200192502549.htm
Snippet:
"China has conducted the first flight test of its new Russian-made anti-ship (supersonic) cruise missile, the most potent naval weapon in China's growing arsenal and a major improvement over its other anti-ship cruise missiles, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
A Chinese Sovremenny-class guided missile destroyer fired an SSN-22 Sunburn missile during a test Sept. 15, said officials familiar with reports of the test.
The new supersonic cruise missile is part of China's naval buildup, which Pentagon analysts say is focused on developing the capability to sink U.S. warships (especially carriers). . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
The PRC have been very quiet. In the unlikely event they were actually planning an attack on Taiwan . . . would it make sense to coincide this with other events occupying other countries major military assets elsewhere?
BR549
(9/25/01; 15:14:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62350)
The seizing of assets
@anybody who thinks that there is no precedent for the government seizing your gold and bank accounts---
Please tell Willy Nelson, Red Fox, and many thousands of others who assets have already seized by the IRS. Speaking of economic terrorists......
@goldquest---
I am not trying to tell you how to post but don't forget your 25 words for your WAG. (see rules). Just trying to be helpful.
BR549
goldquest
(9/25/01; 14:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 62349)
My WAG!
Price of gold
####$307.90####
Cavan Man
(9/25/01; 14:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62348)
De Ronin
Welcome. I remember you from the petro forum. Can oil producing countries sell half the oil at double the price and be comfortable? What say ye Sir Knight?
CoBra(too)
(9/25/01; 14:22:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 62347)
CM - Hello Friend
Wouldn't it be great to see a never ending cycle of ever higher valuations on virtual assets - relative to the monetary expansion and still have some real ROI - ... I guess that's what AG wants to make "the mantra of belief"!
- Wow, the invention of the monetary 'perpetuum mobile' *TM AG - as the Japanese would gladly vote the guy for the next economic Nobel Price and JPMC and consorts would agree, with standing ovations, unto they too knee-jerk like the derivative berserk they may be.
No, my friend, as I've seen 40.000 DJII expectations and such idiocy, I was on a similar path, though who will support the $ to such a degree of lunacy? ... The Weimar Republic revisited, see ... cb2
De Ronin
(9/25/01; 14:09:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 62346)
A little poll
How many of you think Monday's $4 / barrel crude oil price drop (the largest since the Gulf War) was just a normal market reaction to traders and funds anticipating a economic slowdown? If this WAS the case how come the stock market rallied through the roof?
I think it was bigger than that and contrived. It makes no sense for oil markets to drop thru the floor on the inception of war with the Mideast. Is it smart to ask for the support of the Mideast while we artifically decimate their only source of income? Its real similar to what I've been reading here on gold markets.
I'm in the process of researching this more extensively. If any of you has supporting evidence or viewpoints I would appreciate it.
Cavan Man
(09/25/01; 13:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62345)
CoBra(too)
I do believe valuations matter as in P/E. I do not believe in any so called, "new economy". However, I was thinking the other day (Yes; I know that is dangerous for any who encounter my thoughts.), could it be that equity values must simply be adjusted higher in relative terms due to the supply of money? In other words, inflation of equities is a natural consequence of the true inflation of money supply and is in fact, quite normal. Why shouldn't equity prices rise and seek levels above historical norms simply becuase of monetary excess. Further, I suppose that is OK as long as there is in fact a return as in "real rate". What say ye friend of miners and minters?
site steward
(09/25/01; 13:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62344)
HEADLINE: Fed adds $10.030 billion in reserves via 2-day repos
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010925/nat000291_1.html
Read and learn.
CoBra(too)
(9/25/01; 13:00:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62343)
Rleief Rally - Only for the Thieves...
... Yesterdays explosive rally, well, was yesterdays rally. Was it another patriotic, idiotic or just another bear market rally to justify more selling of the PTB, without toppling its own (big apple) cart, evermore.
Sorry, its hard not to be cynical about yesterdays buying spree, as the talking heads heralded the real bottom and even a panic bottom is in place, even citing history. Nice try, though as history in reality tells, we're not even close to the trough as valuations are still riding high and complacency is nigh to the high.
A bull market starts from the ashes of the exuberant over-valuations of the last bull and a bear market climbs the walls of worry of the last believers, sorry to have stayed the course ... and now are willing to give up on their beliefs.
Now you can bet upon where you wann'a be!
...and to follow the catch-word, where have the likes of the regulatory bodies have been, while the NASDQ was eliminating any gold companies trading below the 1 $ requirement and now coming to the rescue of the dot.coms, experiencing a similar fate, though out of greed and not necessity - and still nothing to show - except you friendly investor - may eat crow!
What a classic show! ... and the ones responsible, will have made their fortunes and maybe, have converted some of their spree to Rea`l Money`!
Fed up , are you - cb2
Netking
(9/25/01; 12:45:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62342)
Price guessing contest
The earlier question/s today from Annie and another re: cents or 1/10's of $'s allowed in price guess? My humble interpretation was whole or complete dollars only. Given that a dollar movement in the POG is close to being only a 1/3 of 1% movement in price anyway this is logical to have it in complete dollars.
Admin./MK - "If" cents are allowed then can my guess be fine tuned from $302 to $302.22!
Good luck & best wished to all!
- Netking
Old Yeller
(9/25/01; 12:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 62341)
The latest from the Bat Cave
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=185362
Guess who's playing the Joker?
Maybe they'll have to borrow a certain villian from James Bond.
RS
(9/25/01; 12:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62340)
MSNBC Article: Terrorists, dollars and a tangled web
http://www.msnbc.com/news/byron.asp?cp1=1
quote:
"OVER THE YEARS, the worlds of terrorism and dollar-based global finance have in fact become so entwined..."
-----------------------------------------
Indeed.
Every day, the faithful flock of sheeple are bombarded with clue after clue, to no avail.
Henri
(9/25/01; 12:32:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62339)
#### $249 ####
OK, so it looks a tad low; however, I believe we will see a break of the previous recent lows for the following reasons.
1) SNB sale
2) recent flurry of flight to gold and gold stocks...the PTB must absolutely and immediately quash this as it has the rush to oil issues.
ge
(9/25/01; 12:20:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62338)
From the archives ...
Date: Sun May 17 1998 03:19
mozel (@See-Saw) ID#153102:
The consensus is that the stock market in the United States is a bubble of overvaluation. The presumption is the managers are planning a correction without a crash.
Gold is undervalued. The presumption is the managers are planning a rise without damaging confidence in fiat paper or
the popular perception that it is not wealth and money.
I think the managers of both ends of this see-saw are co-operating. But, I don't know the scenario. But, I think the common interest of managers on both sides of the Atlantic is to make more money.
uponroof
(9/25/01; 12:15:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62337)
THE POG CONTEST
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010925/l25328086_1.html
From the above link:
``We do not expect $289.00 to be challenged before further declines towards $282.00 occur,'' an analyst at J.P. Morgan said.
However, political and military factors remained a strong bullish factor in the market, analysts also said.
``Although gold will take its short-term direction from equity markets and currencies, political and military actions will trigger major moves,'' John Reade, of UBS Warburg, said.
***********************
To arrive at a sound conclusion one must consider all factors implicit in the equation leading to a grounded and naturally subsequent riposte......
First off we must handicap whatever anyone from JPM says regarding gold. Last I checked at thebulliondesk.com the JPM POG handicap was a solid +$14. This should change Friday after the ever increasing derivative position is released.
Second, we must calculate the percentages of an air strike (just to loosen things up over there) into the equation. Last I checked the locations of our nuclear subs, destroyers, and aircraft carriers through GPS.com, it appears they are almost in place. POG will increase a strong +$9-16 depending on the amount of force used in strikes before Friday.
Third, we must (as remote as it seems) take into account the possibility of a retaliatory counterattack before next Friday. Last I checked in at the local seven eleven, with my arab friends who work there, they are unaware of any immediate plans of retaliation. Since I do not trust these guys, I am assigning a fair to strong +$12-19 POG on this possibility.
Fourth there is the ever present cartel relentless in their price fixing, always to be considered and never to be discounted. Last I checked with Leonard Kaplan they were not intervening and the idea that they were was laughable. Like JPM, Kaplan is 'counter intelligent'. I see market intervention at all time highs with an extremely strong
-$32 at the hands of the cartel firmly intact despite the long term hopelessness of their position (note above link- the Swiss were swift to Greenspans suggestion a few weeks ago).
Fifth, the health of the stock market is key to determining what military measures can be undertaken. Last I checked with CNBC we were on our way to all time highs. Since CNBC has not changed that prediction in 6 years I am discounting a small portion (100%) of it's value. This means chances are the market will remain vulnerable enough to be adversely affected by military action. All in all a +$10-13 for POG.
Finally, as stated below in my post of Monday morning, There is a wild card in that Andy of Mitsui has seen the light. This is not to be taken mildly. Nothing less than a very strong +$22 to be garnered from this cataclysmic event.
So we crunch, cost average, assess, digest, and excrete our way to the final answer ############$269.69###############
A far cry from my impulsive, hap hazzard, irresponsible guess of yesterday morning (see below).....which may have inspired the boss into this contest.
uponroof (9/24/01; 06:29:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62259)
Good Morning all,
Anyone care to guess at where POG closes on Friday? If this week is anything like last week, with an additional Arab alienating air strike or two, I'll guess 296. Almost fell off my chair when Andy at Mitsui went straight. That's gotta be a major indicator. Then again, the forces we fight are deep and wide in evil.
************************************
MK- Thanks for this contest. If I am right I will need the coin to refrain from suicide (ordinary type-without terroristic implications).
CoBra(too)
(9/25/01; 10:53:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 62336)
CM - Only the physical "properties" of Au
... have been discussed so far - or do you read $2.500 per "ad" (-mission to tout any other property) as an interim goal for au 99.99 real money or would you think MK would be interested in any fiat number ... tongue in cheek -another meek ... cb2
Canuck
(9/25/01; 10:50:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62335)
Gold Guess
###### $291.90 ######
I have seen support at the critical 292 level since 911. I believe the 'cabal' although hurting will not loose control for another couple months. Good luck to all and thank you MK for the opportunity.
Usul
(9/25/01; 10:43:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62334)
Barclays
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2001/09/25/wdoxh125.xml
USAGOLD re: Barclays: I was able to buy a 1oz gold coin from a branch around 1980, no problem. Just wait for them to get it in the branch, paid for via my account. But when I inquired in 1997, I got the dumb look from the cashier, and after checking with higher up staff, I was told it couldn't be done.
Oh by the way, see the link-
"On the trail of bin Laden's money"
(Filed: 25/09/2001)
"THE closure of an account at Barclays Bank in Notting Hill, west London, was heralded by Gordon Brown as the first step in the financial war against Osama bin Laden's terror network..."
Gandalf the White
(9/25/01; 10:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 62333)
############$296.70##############
YES Lady Annie, there are at least "tenths" in the Comex pricing of the December Contract (GC1Z)! AND my crystal ball shows that we shall be pushing for the $300 level by the close of biz on Friday.
<;-)
annie
(9/25/01; 10:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62332)
Re: Price of Gold Contest
Wow!!! First time that I've been here for a contest. I love it! It's seldom that we bugs get an opportunity to win at the end of the week--the gold hammer usually wacks us pretty good.
I have a question before I use my one-and-only guess, though. If you require the amount to be an even-dollar amount, then choosing now would be prudent--pick a number before someone else does. But, if you allow dollars-and-cents guesses, it would be better, probably to wait until the last minute. If so, are there any increments, $.10, or just plain $.01 increments?
Please clarify ASAP so that I may implement my flawless gamesmanship (ha,ha,ha. Not at all!).
Thanks. annie
USAGOLD
(9/25/01; 09:57:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 62331)
Today's Commentary: Some Background; Andy Smith, Barclay's Capital Now Bullish on Gold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
Below is a portion of today's Commentary & Review available normally
by private password only. You can gain free access to this (almost)
daily report on the gold market (and all that affects it) as well as
our widely read hard copy newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts,
Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals by going to
the link above (registration required) or calling USAGOLD's offices --
800-869-5115. Available to current and prospective clientele in the
United States, Europe, Canada and Australia. If longevity and growing
readership are the test, these may be the best reporting services on
gold available anywhere. Thank you for your interest.
9/25/01
In Brief: Gold is struggling to the upside
this morning as the markets await a U.S.
military response to terrorism. John Read
from UBS Warburg summed up the prevailing
sentiment in the gold market at the moment
saying "Although gold will take its
short-term direction from equity markets
and currencies, political and military
actions will trigger major moves,'' The
recent change in gold sentiment and the
reasons for it are expressed very well in
the highly recommended link and snippet
provided immediately below this copy.
Yesterday's market action (with the Dow
rising sharply and gold retracing
slightly) reflects a hope on the part of
mainstream investors and market
professionals that the financial markets
will return to some semblance of normalcy
(normalcy being defined as rising equities
and languising gold), but that may be a
forlorn hope for a number of reasons:
1. The markets were headed down long
before the twin tower terrorism. 9-11-01
intensified the slide and gave it cause.
2. Over the past week, the Congress issued
$50 billion new dollars to deal with the
9-11-01 aftermath; the president promised
to bail out the insurance and airline
companies; Alan Greenspan printed $50
billion to bail out European treasury note
holders and the banks opened the spigots
for anyone who needed money to save the
stock market. In my nearly 30 years
watching markets and the authorities
reaction to them, I have never seen this
level of involvement, and we have only
just begun. . . .and all this money
printing spells INFLATION with a capital
"I".
3. When Alan Greenspan lowered interest
rates another .5%, he removed whatever was
left of the real rate of return on the
dollar after taxes and inflation. This is
an outright signal to well-heeled
investors worldwide that it's time to get
out of the dollar and go where a real
return is possible. This will be bad for
the dollar -- an outright and de facto
devaluation.
4. The DJIA is still notoriously
overvalued as is the NASDAQ. The bear is
still on the loose and bearing his claws.
What happens when the next wave of
earnings reports comes out against this
economic backdrop? Patriotic investing
will not be sufficient to counter the very
bad numbers coming out of corporate
America. What was surprising about the
airlines, for example, is how poorly
capitalized they were being unable to
withstand a short two week slowdown in
business activity. What other surprises
are out there? Much of the stock market
strength depended on foreign investors
betting on the dollar. What happens when
the realization sets-in that this very
large group of players will be essentially
unaffected by calls for patriotic
investing?
The move to gold is likely to continue,
especially as rallies like yesterday's
lose steam (in today's early trading it
appears that the DJIA and NASDAQ both are
struggling to hold on to slight early
gains) and the real weaknesses in this
economy becomes increasingly evident. No
matter what the price does, gold demand
internationally will continue to rise as
it has over the past two weeks. Keeping
the price in check in order to dampen
demand is no longer the panacea it was in
the past, and only acts to fuel further
demand -- from speculators, long term
hedgers as well as those needing to cover
short positions. Hence the newly positive
analysis over the weekend for gold from
such long term bears as Merrill Lynch and
Mitsui. MK
* * *
Andy Smith Changes Mind on Gold Market
(Minesite.com) The once notorious gold
bear has become a bull predicting "a very
large , probably delayed but possibly
sustained rise in the gold price." . .
Lack of liquidity , especially in options,
could exaggerate an upward move in the
gold price once the buying pressure
reaches a certain level.
* * *
Gold prices to gain for the foreseeable
future in a more dangerous and volatile
world
Clearly "something else" was behind gold's
sharp rally. That something else can only
have been investor demand, something the
gold market can be forgiven for not
recognizing. Although one could argue that
an article in the Weekend FT on "Buying
Gold" ("Potent Bullion adds Savour to
Portfolios") or gold's sudden popularity
on CNBC is proof enough, there are also
reports of a sharp rise in Turkish
physical demand and anecdotal evidence of
coin buying. Not all evidence is
anecdotal, however. Barclays is, in
addition to an investment bank, one of the
major "High Street" (retail) banks in the
UK and inquiries from our branch network
have risen from 1-2 per month to 3+ per
day. The only conclusion is that gold
indeed retains its "safe haven" status. If
this is the case, and if, as President
Bush has said "there are struggles ahead
and dangers to face," then perhaps the
long bear market is over and it is gold's
time to shine. (Matthew C.
Schwab/Barclay's Capital)
USAGOLD
(9/25/01; 09:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 62330)
C-Man. . .
In general, this has not been a problem. The dividing line is whether or no it looks like a direct promotion. We do not discourage discussion about mining in general as it relates to the rest of the gold market -- as a matter of fact it is of great interest to all of us, myself included. Most of you are friends and I appreciate your enthusiasm and long term commitment to this Forum and gold as well. However, if we allow unpaid ads for one, we must allow them for all.
I am sure you fellows understand.
Cavan Man
(9/25/01; 09:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 62329)
USAGOLD
Sorry from here MK. I have seen discussion of many gold stocks and properties here and did not feel I was posting contrary to your policy which of course I respect and completely agree with.
I am a customer of Centennial Precious Metals and a PGA to all for the record here.
USAGOLD
(9/25/01; 09:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 62328)
All. . . .
I would like to remind all that this is not the place to promote gold properities. Please. We are instituting a policy of a $2500 charge for any advertisements on this Forum and will begin sending out bills immediately. From what I have seen thus far today, this forum has made Centennial quite a bit of money. Thank you.
Old Yeller
(09/25/01; 09:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 62327)
The dollar's dilemma
http://www.smh.com.au/news/0109/24/biztech/biztech6.html
Which,of course,has been discussed at length here at this fine site for many a moon.The Sydney Morning Herald appears to be at the cutting edge(in terms of mainstream corporate behemoth media)for objective views on important world events.Since one the experts cited works for our friends at JPM/C,I wonder just how much this clear and present risk is being publicized in the land where patriotic exhortation to buy stocks and the underlying strength of the economy is shouted from the highest rooftops on a deafening and continous basis.
There is something amiss in the markets,much more so than the usual subtle smoothings.Someone or somebody of great power was sending out a message to the oil markets yesterday.Either that,or the futures markets are being used as a means to gather ammunition(US fiat)for the next counter-strike or support mission.
Randy,that was a great(and chilling) post on government's ability to change the rules under the guise of public safety and economic balancing.One can easily forsee a day when one will called on the official carpet to explain the origin of personal digital assets.Further,if the explanation is deemed to be unacceptable by the protectors of the greater good'seizure of said assets would follow.
Physical gold will always be money,that's what scares them.Until they develop the technology to detect physical gold,your savings from a lifetime of hard work and personal sacrifice will be assured.
goldfan
(9/25/01; 09:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62326)
@Henri (msg#: 62310)
Sir Henri Was interested in your comments and I agree the government has no authority to confiscate private gold holdings but... they have done so in the past ....so why would they not repeat in future? The fate of gold is not really in our hands, I submit, but in the hands of those with the power to take it from us. How long do you think it will be, before someone in government makes the connection that gold is the exchange medium of choice for druggies and terrorists, and brands anywone holding gold as a potential drug dealer or terrorist? subject to all the arbitrary penalties that entails??
You said
>>>>>the government will...when all other options are exhausted (attempts to hold gold in a specific "price" range)...make a call upon privately held stores to make up the shortfall.
Their authority to do so? None.
In short, US$ does not belong to the holder and is subject to any and all controls of the issuing authority. All profit and interest generated in the use of the fiat is subject to taxation by the issing authority...those that allow its use for these purposes.
Gold on the other hand, bears no interest and thus does not affect the tidal forces of global fiat. Nor does it dissipate in value. It just is. Being such, he who holds it determines its fate and usage. Its that simple.<<<<
FWIW
Goldfan
CoBra(too)
(9/25/01; 09:18:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 62325)
Consumer Confidence!
Kind'a exceptional - Bloomberg carried an article on rising consumer confidence as one of the (non-not sine qua non) explanations of yesterdays spectacular sm rise ... until the real figures had to be published - Bloomberg: U.S. Consumer Confidence Index plunges to 97.6 (from revised 114 in Aug.), lowest level in 5 1/2 years ... (was 88.4 in 1996) - the final receipt for deceit of the public is confidence lost in the fiat!
Grim - as BB would term it! cb2
AEL
(9/25/01; 09:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 62324)
Sennholz on sennholz.com: A New Kind of War (tiny excerpt)
http://www.sennholz.com/newwar.html
The U.S. government unfortunately has made enemies throughout Asia, with millions hating us with an
obsessive, fanatical passion. They do not envy us for our virtues and possessions but hate our global empire
whose tentacles reach into all corners of the world. Our bombs and missiles have killed women and children in
Iraq, Iran, Kenya, Tanzania and Serbia. Countless Iraqis continue to suffer hunger and deprivation due to
economic sanctions imposed by the UN, and Iraqi military and civilians continue to suffer casualties from
American and British raids on radio and missile sites. Our bountiful foreign aid and assistance, which the U.S.
government doles out year after year, fosters dependence and corruption and festers political strife and conflict.
In South America, U.S. officials finance and direct a bitter war against drug growers and dealers. In fact, most
Americans are unaware that their government has profoundly antagonized much of the human race.
Belgian
(9/25/01; 09:07:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 62323)
CNN - Investment
Some straigth talk on CNN, today, by a Dexia (Belgium/France-bank) analyst : Gold and unhedged Goldmines (Newmont). Argumentation : Inflation will show up due to the past (and present) monetary/fiscal management !
Voila, some more public optimism on Gold.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(9/25/01; 08:55:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62322)
@Spartacus - Big Brother
We are certainly been well prepared are we not. The Big Brother TV program as got one of the highest ratings ALL OVER europe. The sheople love it! They will accept their chip without any problems. No need to crash any more planes into buildings. The sheople are ready today!!
CoBra(too)
(9/25/01; 08:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 62321)
Re: Sleeper Mine
BB, Nickel, Auspec CM - Sleeper was probably the richest
(most highgrade) mine in Nevada, though Amax Gold never got
the claims to any extensions, nor did they really care due to their existing financial troubles. And even as AMAX was taken over by Cyprus Minerals the gold mining arm was their least concern. And yes, I feel that this property and Coral's Robertson property, adjoining PDG's Pipeline are among the most advanced gold pty's in Nevada.
Since I don't want to tout any miners on MK's site I would like to refer anyone interested to the respective co's web sites. They both have substantial data on their projects and will willingly pass on pertinent and public information.
... As I've been involved in mining and other finance for
some time, I have to admit that in the 70's gold mining shares have been the best investment course, while today I feel the safest bet is physical gold in hand and mining shares, as BB says should be primarily the unhedged profitable producers and only few, though some good specs on exploration and development. As always, no investment advice ... and shares, even gold miners are still paper, even if some feel less so!
Regards to all and thanks to all for great posts recently
- humbly - cb2
nickel62
(9/25/01; 08:45:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62320)
XCAL and Cavan Man,
There is a difference between mining stocks with real potential and those that are really just BS. That is why I wanted to second Black Blades analysis of XCAL. If we are moving into a period of speculation in mining stocks it is very important to share knowledge to the other posters of what is real and what is clearly BS. I think XCAL is real but is clearly speculative even at $400/ounce gold. It is a blue sky property that might have some potential that the Amax management missed. There have been several credible people, including the retired Amax geologist if I remember correctly, who have not only believed in the project but also have worked for XCAL in the attempt to find the missed ore bodies. I personally think that there may be a viable deposit here. That is if gold returns to $400/ounce since few if any deposits of this nature would be profitable mines at anything less than that. So that puts my endorsement into perspective. Compare this to the complete hype that is out there on many properties and is the life blood of the canadian mining stock market and it seems like a decent speculation. But as we all have said quite clearly a speculation none the less.
Cavan Man
(9/25/01; 08:22:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 62319)
nickel62
http://www.x-cal.com
It is better than you state.
Trading symbols:
XCL (TSE)
XCASF (US exchanges)
Spartacus
(9/25/01; 08:18:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 62318)
Angel? No Devil
@ Black Blade
MONACO - In Orwell's 1984 book, no one could move without being seen by Big Brother. We now have the identical situation at hand, & it's being proclaimed as one of man's greatest inventions...
Now coming to a retail outlet near U is the most insidious hi-tech innovation of all time: Digital Angel. It might better be called Devil Angel, as nothing more epitomizes both good & evil.
What is Digital Angel?
It's a creation of Applied Digital Solutions, Inc (Nasdaq: ADSX). It's a convergent technology, combining the most advanced innovations from a range of medical & hi-tech areas-sensory & bio-sensory, micro-electromechanical systems, real time wireless transmission, GPS (Global Positioning Satellite) & miniaturization-into a single under-the-skin microchip implant.
They think we'll all have one in our hand in due course, either voluntarily - for medical reasons - or required for credit card use or access to an airport. US military is considering adopting it in stages. Next: firemen, govt employees, pets, children. What starts out voluntarily usually ends up as mandatory. It's already mandatory in Los Angeles for pets adopted from animal shelters. And in many areas, released prisoners.
Oh? If U think "So what? It'll never catch on, won't affect me. I thought so too, but as I read the plan, the already wide acceptance, the endorsement by the insiders, I now think it's the prime 'Present Danger' today!
Fortune magazine publishes an annual Cool List of companies, people, trends & products, & its 6/25 issue lists Digital Angel as one of its 4 Cool[est] Products for 2001. Earlier, Internet World Wireless Show gave Digital Angel its Best of Show designation. But most ominously, on Jan 31, 2000, Applied Digital Solutions received a special Technology Pioneers award from the prestigious World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland for its contributions to worldwide economic development & social progress through technology advancements.
Social progress? Translation: people control. Alarm bells ought to go off when an elitist, supra-govt organization like the World Economic Forum goes out of its way to extraordinarily acclaim yet-to-be-realized achievements of a lowly hi-tech startup.
It's getting praise due to potentially beneficial aspects of Digital Angel. They are: It's electronically powered by body heat; it'll have EKG & EEG sensors to measure such vital signs as pulse & blood pressure. This will facilitate continuous monitoring of people with heart, respiratory, diabetic & other medical problems. Due to its GPS satellite link, Digital Angel knows the precise physical location of a patient anywhere on Earth & will even relay to monitors when a person stumbles or falls.
It can track & reveal the exact location of VIPs, royalty, children, pets, firemen, prisoners, law enforcement officials, military personnel, etc. When U purchase something, the person at the cash register can instantly verify your identity by scanning your Digital Angel implant & cross-referencing it with your bank or credit card account. To be continued...
The International Harry Shultz letter
http://www.hsletter.com/
You need to subscribe. The article above was published during the summer.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(9/25/01; 08:07:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 62317)
@Black Blade - Protecting Children and Grannies
http://www.digital-angel.com/
We have the technology brother. I believe test runs are under way.
nickel62
(9/25/01; 08:03:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62316)
XCAL property in Nevada, the old Amax Sleeper mine..
I would like to throw my two cents in with Black Blade about the old Amax property and XCAL's attempts to resurect it. I have been familiar with this property off and on for almost seven years and think that Black Blade's description of it is accurate and very professional. If and we all know that it is a big if, the excitement of mining stocks returns like it was in the middle ninties, then this stock might well be able to raise considerable excitement. It appears to have some real blue sky potential in a world that has few really good prospects for significant new gold capacity..not investment advice of course just really a tibute to Black Blades superior knowledge on this property.
Cavan Man
(9/25/01; 07:45:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62315)
USAGOLD
"Tell me, I pray thee, how fares the human race: If new roofs be risen in the ancient cities: whose empire is it that now sways the world?"
St. Antony
Desert Father
4th Century A.D.
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 07:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62314)
Should Americans Carry National I.D. Cards?
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kpix/20010924/lo/1360_1.html
Snippit:
The discussion of a national I.D. card for every American is in the headlines and on many minds Monday, after Oracle founder Larry Ellison suggested it in an exclusive Channel 5 interview. What's more, Ellison said his company would provide the software for such a database to the government for free. "We need a national I.D. card with our photograph and our thumbprint ... digitized and embedded in the I.D. card, and we need a database behind that," Ellison said.
Black Blade: Chilling! How quickly we submit to tyranny. Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle is a man without moral character. Compare him to the businessmen who gave their support to Adolf Hitler before he seized power with their blessing. Truly sad. Papieren Bitte!
Ah heck, let's just skip the card and insert microchips in the back of the necks of newborns so they can be scanned everywhere they go - it can be sold as a child loss prevention system to gullible Soccer Moms. Do I hear any takers? Intel? Advanced Micro Devices?
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 07:22:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 62313)
Rockwell Plans More Job Cuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010925/rockwell_cutbacks_1.html
Rockwell Automation Announces Plans to Cut 750 More Jobs, Warns on Earnings
Snippit:
MILWAUKEE (AP) -- Rockwell Automation Inc. said Tuesday it plans to cut 750 more jobs worldwide, in addition to about 1,300 announced earlier this year, and warned its earnings will be lower than expected for this quarter.
Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows with more unfortunate nonessential "Bags O' Bones" being cast upon the ever-growing pile. It will continue to get much worse as the Recession deepens. Prepare those "Golden Lifeboats."
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 07:07:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 62312)
Nasdaq considers changes to ease listing standards
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/268/business/Nasdaq_considers_changes_to_ease_listing_standards+.shtml
Snippit:
The Nasdaq Stock Market is considering rule changes that could help some struggling companies avoid being removed from the exchange, a wrenching process that often spells a slow, lingering death for a firm.
Black Blade: Desperate Times - Desperate Measures.
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 07:03:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62311)
Global: Global Recession -- Longer and Deeper
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
Snippit:
Uncertainty remains extremely high in the aftermath of the shocking events of 11 September. But there is painful clarity to the endgame. For a world we judged already to be in synchronous recession before the terrorist attacks on America, the downturn now looks considerably deeper and longer than we ever suspected. Our team of economists around the world has been working around the clock in an effort to add greater precision to the growth warning we issued immediately after this shock. The outcome of what has been a truly extraordinary collaborative effort follows.
Black Blade: Yes, even Morgan Stanley is calling for a severe Recession. Hang on for the ride. "Interesting Times"
Henri
(9/25/01; 06:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 62310)
On lockdowns...etc.
Here are my current thoughts, for what they are worth, on the subject of fiat controls. When we take a fiat currency as payment for goods or services there is a silent contract implied with those who are the actual owners of this medium of exchange. That this fiat actually belongs to the person or group holding it is a grave misinterpretation of this silent agreement. In the case of the US $, since its break with gold, the fiat actually belongs to the federal reserve bank owners and is circulated against obligations incurred for various purposes by the US treasury and it's authorizing spendthrift organization, the US Congress.
Congress, in turn, expects that future tax revenues from the use of the fiat, will pay back the obligations of the historical and now hysterical deficit spending practices.
The bottom line is the fiat does not belong to the holder but belongs to the issuer. It is with this authority that the US government is able to exercise control over the doings and goings on concerning its own fiat.
It has also convinced other issuers of other fiat currencies that if they wish to continue trade in the US brand of fiat, they must agree to support these control protocols. That the "balance of payments" is to be settled in gold (SDR's in modern times)is an artifact that they wish would go away. Since it appears on this front that their gold reserves for such payments are depleting rapidly, they have endeavored to "change the rules" yet again to extend their(gold)credit among nations.
Since the gold is now and has always been the basis of reconciliation of fiat imbalance, a shortfall in gold is a grave turn of events for the issuer of a fiat used in global transactions. The US treasury had no more claim to privately held gold in 1933, than it does now when it confiscated private holdings for the use by government.
That gold deposited in banks or brought to the treasury for conversion to gold certs...belonged to those individuals performeing the conversions. There was that gold legitimately owneed by the treasury which was collected in tariffs from foreign trade and other sources. I presume that what is left of it is the remaining stockpile held in "deep storage". Rather than spend this gold and compromise the global confidence for using US generated fiat, the government will...when all other options are exhausted (attempts to hold gold in a specific "price" range)...make a call upon privately held stores to make up the shortfall.
Their authority to do so? None.
In short, US$ does not belong to the holder and is subject to any and all controls of the issuing authority. All profit and interest generated in the use of the fiat is subject to taxation by the issing authority...those that allow its use for these purposes.
Gold on the other hand, bears no interest and thus does not affect the tidal forces of global fiat. Nor does it dissipate in value. It just is. Being such, he who holds it determines its fate and usage. Its that simple.
Black Blade
(9/25/01; 06:56:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62309)
THE MARKETS ARE STILL GROSSLY OVERPRICED
http://www.nypost.com/business/4843.htm
Snippit:
September 25, 2001 -- ARE you feeling irrationally re-exuberant? Before you start following the herd back into the stock market, consider a few things. First, there was absolutely no fundamental reason why stock prices rose as much as they did yesterday.
The 368-point gain in the Dow Jones industrial index and other impressive percentage improvements across the board were not the result of any news event, change in economic fundamental or even astrological re-alignment. Terrorists still blew up the World Trade Center. There is still a frightening war to be fought. And corporate profits - with or without that conflict - are still going to be miserable in the foreseeable future, even though some companies do seem to be bending the rules over backward to report even the slightest good news.
Black Blade: DITTO! What I have been saying all along. This Recession is likely to be one of the most severe on record. Hard assets such as Gold and Silver are worth considering for portfolio insurance - especially now. There is absolutely no positive news to trade on. Even the Pied Pipers are finding it difficult to come up with new Buzz Words. The only Buzz Word that fits - "GRIM"
Spartacus
(09/25/01; 06:26:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62308)
(No Subject)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2001/20010920/default.htm
Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
The condition of the financial markets
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
September 20, 2001
For a brief time, the terrorist attack markedly disrupted payment transfers that are usually measured in terms of trillions of dollars each day. Many obligators temporarily lost their technical ability to pay on time, leaving those counting on receiving payments caught short. The pressures ultimately ended up concentrated in banks. Those needs were met by the Federal Reserve, both through record lending at the discount window and through an extraordinary infusion of funds through open market operations. To facilitate the channeling of dollar liquidity to foreign financial institutions operating in the United States, thirty-day currency swap lines were arranged with major central banks, again in record volumes. It was essential in such an environment to meet all appropriate demands for dollar liquidity. As the financial markets and payment infrastructure return to normal, loans are being repaid, and the temporarily bloated balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is now shrinking back to normal.
Henri
(09/25/01; 06:20:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62307)
Solomon Weaver msg#: 62289
An excellant piece Sir Knight
The CoinGuy
(09/25/01; 06:06:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 62306)
For those of you that have trouble believing in miracles...Heres one.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/brokers_archive/2001/Sept-2001/andysmith250901.htm
I was literally floored when I heard this was true, but now it is here in black and white.
Now if this isn't bullish...
Coinguy
The CoinGuy
(09/25/01; 05:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 62305)
####$293.25####
I'll take a guess at the closing price, but personally don't care what the paper price is. I just want the "physical" coin. Hence my nickname...
I loved FOA's line, and I'll have to paraphrase because it's from memory. "You can't corner a printing press".
I'm extremely bullish on the physical metal, but will idly sit by why the paper games are played. I think we'll continue to see strength in the physical market because, like others I'm not seeing anywhere else to put my money that 1) has a decent return. and 2) safety. You can only own so many t-bills at 2 to 3%.
I've had fun watching E-Bay over the last 4 weeks. I stop in there on a daily basis just to see how prices are fairing, how many auctions are running, and whats for sale. The three gold areas are US Gold, US Bullion, and Foreign gold. The # of auctions since the 11th have dropped off faster than the Dow. Now thats what I call demand, with lack of supply. I suppose it could also be temporary inventory setbacks. I'm friends with a wholesaler, and he hasn't called me in a week. I'd imagine that smaller dealers are having problems filling orders. The big boys must be leaning on their whole salers pretty hard.
Coinguy
site steward
(09/25/01; 05:27:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 62304)
Lock-down: the ever-present problem with money and other funds held in account
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-092401bush_wr.story
As these events demonstrate, "account money" is never out of the reach and ultimate grasp of a determined sovereign that can summon controlling authority. How many otherwise innocent bystanders may find their accounts frozen in the event that their bank is deemed not to be properly cooperating in accordance with U.S. desires in what is effectively a case-by-case basis for implementing capital controls?
Some pertinent excerpts:
WASHINGTON--President Bush, calling for a "strike on the financial foundation" of terrorists, demanded today that foreign banks follow America's lead and freeze the assets of 27 individuals and organizations. ....... "We're putting banks and financial institutions around the world on notice." ....... If they fail to assist, he said, the Treasury Department "now has the authority to freeze their banks' assets and transactions in the United States." ........ the White House expanded an order put in place during the Clinton administration...."establishes our ability to block the U.S. assets of, and deny access to U.S. markets, those foreign banks that refuse to freeze terrorist assets."----END----
Such clear demonstration of a sovereign's ability to control ACCOUNTS as may seem politically expedient is a compelling argument in favor of holding your gold in physical form rather than in derivative form (futures or shares) or in an interest bearing account (which is also subject to a plain ol', old-fashioned, bank-style "run".)
Naturally, our good poster tg raises the next logical issue in his recent msg#62299:
"THE NEXT STEP a freeze on the sale and exchange of gold because it is the only medium of exchange the terrorists have left. Is it beyond the realms of probability???"
Certainly not BEYOND possibility. However, in such an event, one might expect that all gold already in private hands would appreciate nicely in physical-based "off-market" ("black market") trade-value, especially with all officially-sanctioned market supplies of gold (metal and paper) being cut off.
Whatever the chances, it is better to buy now to be safe (with secure and portable private wealth) rather than sorry.
That said, the research I have access to (here in "The Tower") continues to point toward the arrival of a day in which the civilized governments of the world (will the U.S. government be among them??) will show outright support for the private ownership of gold by their citizens as a principle means of saving.
"Why?" you ask??
The shortest suitable answer can be seen in this article that was provided earlier today by Old Yeller (msg# 62294).
HEADLINE: Yen and Swiss franc soar in value -- Currency Investors seek haven for funds
Pertinent Excerpts:
The Swiss and Japanese central banks yesterday sought to rein in their soaring currencies amid fear of the damage that a stronger franc and yen could cause their crucial export sectors.
+
The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point as it tried to stem the rise triggered by the Swiss franc's "haven" status in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the US.
+
With Japanese financial markets closed for a holiday, the Bank of Japan brought in the European Central Bank to sell the yen in the ongoing efforts to curb its rally against the dollar as Japanese investors repatriate funds. ....... The Bank of Japan spent much of last week trying to stem the rise in the yen -----END----
Recognition and encouragement of freely floating free market gold to neutrally serve that role will help eliminate these "management problems" affecting trade as seen here (or "exorbitant privileges" as seen from U.S. history) stemming from chronic reserve usage, or from sudden large scale capital movements into or out of a nation's currency.
As a more level playing field is sought in international monetary reform, the growing role of gold as a high-value reserve asset is an idea whose time has come.
Simply put...(you've heard it said before)
"Gold. Get you some."
Randy
LeSin
(09/25/01; 05:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62303)
TIME ABOUT RIGHT FOR OIL TO BE TRADED IN EURO's
@ Thoughts & Speculation ?? - TG/FOA Now is a GOOD TIME, YES
Oil drastically down in US$ terms today. Not good for OPEC Club?
Risk/FACT of a Rapid DEVALUATION in US$, SOON ?
Times & Circumstance - present opportunities for change to a stable less risky Currency ?
Who wants to be holding vast amounts of Over-Inflated US$, Long-term ?
"S"
Belgian
(09/25/01; 04:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62302)
@ tg
Whilst geopolitics/propaganda/info and disinformation (anti Taliban forces-invisible/war), are running, one might become indeed, a bit cynical.
Confiscation only becomes a probability when the financial dirigents can't produce the music, they want to hear, anymore. When Gold breaks free and shows it real strength - power, in an explosive way. Pushing a price to much higher extremes is also a way to divert Gold-appetite (cfr.1980).
W're quite some distance away from this.
Today, there are only 2 focal points : Building a viable strong anti-terror coalition and saving the global economy from collapse. The Russian factor comes on the foreplan with 20 million moslims on its territory. Putin goes to Germany for talks/advice. Europ wants an anti-terror action without an anti-moslim side effect. Straw (UK) made a mistake (Palestine-statement) and Israel is furious.
I would welcome a Gold confiscation-attempt or an *official* price fixing-suggestion, but it want happen. Any (!!!!!!)overt move on the metal is just admitting its utmost importance and will inevitably attrackt the unwanted attention to it ! See what the financial powerhouse showed, with the POO. OPEC might respond tomorrow ? They are moralized on the immorality of cutting production. Geopolitics and power-balancing. The supremacy of the financial community is clearly reflected now, during this turbulent period. A declining economy will result in much harder/drastic action and attitudes. Up until now, they want to avoid a west/east (non-muslim/muslim) clash and polarization. Crude oil prices will reflect the degree and evolution of this polarization.
Netking
(09/25/01; 04:36:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62301)
PRICE GUESSING CONTEST:
#### $302 #####
Things may not be totally as they might seem. . . . the allied forces have brought together some 600 planes, numerous ships, land forces & a potent array of missiles in the potentially "volatile M.E."
My perception is that this awesome array of strength from the U.S. led colition may/will be used on targets other than the one currently highlighted in the media, the Arab collective & Islam reactions may be a potential wild card to any events in this scenario.
There has also been a strong PPT defence to stop the POG climbing to "Mount 300" (and beyond)and staying there, however I see too much pent up demand in the very short term particularly with "phase one" of the miltary plans under way & picking up pace in a more prolific way in the next few days and forcing another short covering as the battle resumes in the days ahead to breach $300 . . . Gold wins, my guess $302 at close on Friday.
- Netking
Spartacus
(9/25/01; 03:38:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62300)
(No Subject)
http://www.stls.frb.org/docs/publications/review/01/09/0109lm.pdf
FRB review Sept/2001 by L.H Meyer on the importance of monetary aggregates.
tg
(9/25/01; 03:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 62299)
Confiscation Of Gold
First a freeze on the terrorists bank accounts,then a freeze on any bank suspected of harbouring their funds.
THE NEXT STEP
a freeze on the sale and exchange of gold because it is the only medium of exchange the terrorists have left.
Is it beyond the realms of probability??? All in the name of freedom.
Am I getting too old and cynical?
Spartacus
(9/25/01; 01:57:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 62298)
(No Subject)
http://www.goldenbar.com/
The Enemy Within
Indeed, we argue that it is central banking, which is the barbarous relic, not gold
..
BR549
(9/25/01; 01:34:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 62297)
Bush Seeks Global Freeze on Assets of Bin Laden, Other Suspects
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&middle=ad_frame2_windex&s=AO7Aa5hYpQnVzaCBT
"Washington, Sept. 25 -- President George W. Bush ordered a freeze on assets that the U.S. suspects are linked to Islamic terrorists and warned global financial institutions with similar steps unless they do the same.
``We have launched a strike on the financial foundation of the global terror network,'' Bush said in announcing a ban on financial transactions with a dozen individuals, suspected terrorist groups such as Al-Jihad and al-Qaeda, and charities and a company that the U.S. says are associated with terrorists.
The order allows the Treasury Department to freeze U.S. assets of international financial institutions that fail to cooperate with Bush's effort to cut off terrorist groups' money. It also denies those institutions access to U.S. markets. .."
BR--Take away a terrorist's $300MM and he is just a common criminal who can't afford an OJ type lawyer if he lives long enough to become indicted.
Belgian
(9/25/01; 01:28:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62296)
Cruel Crude
The financial Zeus (uppergod), hammered the POO down 30%.
Zeus spoke to the Kings in the houses of Saud : You shall comply with our demands and remain obedient ! Or you shall run short 30% on your cruel crude income ! You shall not valuate our dollar with your barrils or we bring the spirit of war, ghosting around your palaces.
And Saudi Arabia is letting us know that they rethink their recognition of the Taliban and if their airstrips are in good order to receive and serve, the warmachine. PRESSURE !
Yep Auspectable, saw John Doe's posting (Bilderberg-Rockefeller) : History is full of NWO attempts of different scales ! The third Reich, was another one who had a glorious start...
Sorry Sir, have been thinking further about it and feel relieved that we will not be Big Brotherized and remain un-cloned and blessed with enough differentials in our individualities. All Gods went crazy ...sooner or later.
And finaly a very friendly and warm wish to you, whispered very silently :stttttt, get more physical and you will need less moral-boosters. With glowing respect for your elegant answers.
Gresham # 62279 : That picture of you, waiting in the coffee bar, with these multi colored TG-pages, looks very, very familiar to me ! Let's smile together and say thanks to CPM, again !
Uponroof # 62288-WGC : The different Gold-Militias, that we recognize as our Gold-Advocates, are the *real* Gold Councils of today. Let us wait until the 9th of october, and see if our * Independant *-"truth" can make a step forward, into the right direction. And let us be happy that we can think and speak freely.
Usul
(9/25/01; 01:21:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62295)
"On the brink of war - Now what?"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,557559,00.html
One key extract from this article:
"Gold prices have risen as investors seek safety away from "paper" shares..."
How often do you see the mainstream press use the word "paper" in this way? Not as often as you see USAGOLD bugs do!
Old Yeller
(9/25/01; 00:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 62294)
Spinning plates on sticks
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,557642,00.html
A favorite pastime of circus performers and central bankers.
"The last thing you need is a crisis in the dollar"
How about a crisis in the paper gold pit?Sounds infinitely more interesting.
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