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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/25/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Chris Powell
(06/25/01; 23:54:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 56876)
Analysis and comment on Barrick takeover of Homestake
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/816
Good article from www.TheStreet.com.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
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Horatio
(06/25/01; 23:52:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 56875)
Homestake-Barrick -Franco Nevada
I will not be a buyer of any more gold stocks except for maybe Franco Nevada.I look at it as a buy on physical.
They are basicly a Royalty company.When ever one of thier partners mines gold ,they get a % of net smelter.
This means they have none of the problems of operating a mine such as labor costs ,energy costs, enviornmental costs low quality reserves,high gradeing etc.
They simply take some % of oz of gold everytime one of thier partners mines physical.If any physical is mined by any of thier partners they take some of the physical away from them .It doesen't even have to be profitable mining for Franco to gain!!!!
If a partner mines at a loss,Franco gains!as long as physical comes to smelter!
If gold goes to 180.00 per oz,they still can make money as long as physical comes out of the ground!
Even If Barrick runs at a loss,it must mine in order to make good on forward sales.Wherever they partner with Franco ,Franco will still gain ,even as Barrick mines at a loss.
Only a mine shutdown hurts them.....
They have partnerships with Barrick,Homestake
and just about every miner of any size.It is really a bullion play with the advantage of leverage.
Smart people they are!
no problems ,just show me the money!
US_Army(RET)
(06/25/01; 23:23:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 56874)
Sorry...one last "chapter"
Auspec, et. Al.
Please forgive one last posting on this apparently "inflammatory" subject.
First of all the basis for the apparent success of this forum, is for giving all that have an opinion, primarily in reference to precious metals, an opportunity to express them. And when it boils to it all posts here are merely that "opinion." IMHO.
The posts are read and are followed because of the "value" many have to different readers. From my "perspective" many have little, but many have much (value). It has nothing to do with the words used, # of posts, or how long a poster has participated…I am attracted to certain messages because I either learn something new, or something in its content affirms or strengthens a belief I also hold. The same posting may at the same time contain something that I disagree with at the same time.
There are some "posters" I avidly "follow" and look forward to seeing msgs from. Even though I may not entirely "agree" with their current "opinion" or "postulation. And I have to admit there are other posters who I wonder are really even "human" or from this planet.---But so be it. It is all because of the perspectives I hold and maintain and how I choose to view this "reality."
But just because I disagree with a poster even to the extent of getting angry…name calling and invectives like "anti-somethingorother" is just not a component of intelligent and thoughtful discussion.
Ok, I am "anti-zionist," just like others that post regularly here are "anti-Fed", "anti-Big Govt.", "anti-Big Banking," --- these bia's are apparent in nearly every post. I am "anti" a lot of things…We all cannot help but be whenever one is trying to justify a particular position (or opinion)…
The thread that holds us all together is that most of us are "pro-gold." What makes us this way is as varied as our different outlooks on life. We all see "good" and "evil" in different places.
But for the sake of this forum, and in keeping it a platform for "free" discussion…it is important for us all to agree to disagree now and then, and keep personal "attacks" against posters and their opinions off this forum, with the use of "invectives" etc.
I certainly promise not to do so…however I will not keep from expressing my firm beliefs (and opinions) on any subject that relates to PMs, the reasons for current world events that shape their destiny…and statements of fact - Truth (in my view) about any "entity" (not a poster) that seriously threatens the future of our children, way of life, society and world as a whole.
While I will look forward to reading your posts in the future just as I have in the past…please feel free to bypass any submitted by me…as I am sure, my "bia's" will shine through once again…
Sincerely,
SLD
Netking
(06/25/01; 22:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 56873)
Christian
Christian(56871)...and what a smart young couple they are too, especially if they have locked in at a low fixed rate on the mortgage with the ability lump sum repay. When 1980's Ag high is revisted their little Mexican investment would be worth $1.754Million. . . then Buzz, "To infinity & beyond!"(lets hope they store it safely, and wisely)
Horatio
(06/25/01; 22:54:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 56872)
Barrick & Homestake
It doesen't take earnings to get a stock price up,as proven by the dot coms.
It takes more buyers than sellers.
Although I dislike this merger because it rewards whores and Rakes I think the merged company will be hard to ignore if any large buyer wants in.There must be liquidity if funds and large buyers want to participate in gold.Any gold fund that wants in will have to buy its stock because of the "Political stability "it offers.Ask yourself this question...
Whose stock will the big banks,pension funds and bullion traders buy?
Won't they buy from one of thier own?
They will need to buy a gold stock to hedge thier physical losses.If they can promote the merged company and make hugh profits on paper stock while having losses on physical this is a way out of thier problem.
They also have hugh cash reserves to buy cheap proven reserves with .They will be the "bully" on the block.
Its a bankers mentality "I'll lend you as much fiat money as it takes for you to go broke,then I'll foreclose and get real assets.
IMHO this is thier plan.
Remember "more buyers than sellers",not earnings makes stocks go up.
Im going to keep my Homestake shares and go along for the "ride" while I hold my nose.
Christian
(06/25/01; 22:47:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 56871)
We have to face reality
Simplicity of money creation- print it- use the freshly printed money that cost 15 cents to print $1000 to buy gold or silver and dump it. This is exactly what Greenspan's FED is doing. This is a part of what makes a strong dollar. Another part that makes the $ strong is the fact that the dollar is backed by debt. Total amount of $'s in money supply = value of all real property mortgages. Presently the average borrower in the current refinance boom took out a loan that is $41,000 larger at an interest rate that is .06% higher then they had prior to refinance. Most of this refinance went to pay down credit card debt, car loans, etc. As long as all the banks books balance, there is real property to back all of the money. Another part that makes the $ strong is that government debt and liabilities is backed by the taxing power of the government. The dollar will only get stronger in the years to come as the supply of $'s comes ever more scarce. Our $ is a money created symbol of available purchasing power where the cost of interest is never printed into circulation. Debt is paid by more debt. This new higher debt creates deposits which become the basis of new lending.---- Today a young couple took out a home mortgage at a credit union- deposited the loan proceeds into their checking account at that credit union- opened a bank account at another bank- moved the balance in their checking account from the credit union to the other bank- that bank has a branch office in Mexico in which the young couple used the entire amount to buy silver. $142,000 worth on a house that is property tax assessed for $87,000 and a real estate appraiser valuation of $155,000. They bought it a month ago for $95,000 with $10,000 down.
sector
(06/25/01; 22:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 56870)
Its The Moves...
...that mark the "dots". And the "picture" emerges slowly. Very big moves by entities that have access to the highest authorities and their financial plans.
Could the recent big moves be simple reinforcements of past strategies or a preparation for the new strategies? Some people know... We guess.
JPMorgan (without Chase) has drastically reduced it's >five year gold derivatives (-55%) while simultaneously adding long dated interest rate derivatives by the same magnitude. Reasonable viewers can predict that the future will not hold low interest rates for long as inflation propaganda abounds and the real inflation truth invades the Fed's Towers. So...the future will hold higher interest rates...the ultimate inside trader (JPM) just confirmed this and added to their positions.
Reasonable people can also follow JPM's dumping of their long dated gold derivatives. It could not have been because they imagine gold's continued suspended animation. The two moves are diagnostic...especially when one examines the helter-skelter, undiciplined past derivative practices of JPM. They have been all over the map, reacting like amatures.
Now, add the merger of ABX and HM (a former non-hedger). Thompson didn't just waltz in and capitulate or "sell out". He has mitigating information most likely as MIDAS says from Germany. I do not think Thompson or Munk (for that matter) see a continuation of today's "Gold Pool".
Digressing, there is a popular coffee table book consisting only of newspaper headlines from the weeks leading up to Pearl Harbor. In retrospect, those headlines screamed for the "dots" to be connected. The attack on Peral Harbor should not have been a surprise at all. Indeed, some of the Japanese pilots may have felt they were on a suicide mission.
Today's financial headlines are telling us that a big event is coming.
The pressure from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) directors...actuallywalking in protest marches over the "strong dollar", a recession storm brewing much worse than 1991, the piqued ESF scrutiny on Treasury from Congress, GATA's Federal Court challenge, increasing gold press coverage, gold's conspicuous out performance in the equity markets, questions about 20% of US gold stocks being designated as "custodial" just after the WA preemptive selling frenzy, increased COMEX and LBMA trading pattern volatility, dwindling COMEX warehouse gold stocks and finally public domain comments by Treasury Secretary O'Neill and Fed lawyers that tend to confirm GATA's previously incredible assertions about the government meddling in the price of gold to the detriment of innocents in South Africa who now suffer three pandemics...HIV, Cholera and Western Financial Imperialism.
The late astronomer, Carl Sagen was fond of saying "Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence". Credible evidence of nefarious and indefensible US economic missdeeds now abounds and has been tacitly admitted to by the guilty who now try to justify the unjustifiable.
The goldbug tactics are shifting towards the end game while the defenders of collusion try to shore up a crumbling circle of wagons.
ax
(06/25/01; 21:58:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 56869)
HIGH MARKET CAP FOR BARRICK -HOMESTAKE
The Mining Web reported in an article by Tim Wood today
that the combined market capitalization of Barrick-Homestake
would be $ 8.9 billion " nearly double AngloGold's $4.7 billion ". It would be important to ascertain what the
dividend yield of this combination might be. The ratio
of % dividend yield / market capitalization is some measure
of the economic efficiency of a gold mine. It pertains
to how much money is returned to the shareholders from all the shares that a company has issued and left floating on
the market.
Netking
(06/25/01; 21:49:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 56868)
Randy etc, All - Barrick
Concerning the strategy of Barrick going forward:
1)Are they looking at a partial unwinding of their short position?
2)Are they taking insurance against an upmoving POG?
Black Blade
(6/25/01; 21:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 56867)
Barrick Gold's Buyout of Homestake Mining Stokes Conspiracy Theorists
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/tst/notemplates/frame.dcg?symbol=ABX&ntlink=http://www.thestreet.com/_intuit/markets/aarontaskfree/1472654.html
Snippit:
"It's an unmitigated disaster," said one trader of mining stocks. "I see no reason to do this transaction. [Homestake] could have achieved a 30% premium in the blink of an eye if the gold market hiccups." A big reason for frustration over the deal is that Barrick is an aggressive hedger while Homestake is not. Hedging refers to mining companies selling future production at a fixed cost, in order to protect themselves against potentially lower prices. Assuming completion of the merger, the combined Barrick-Homestake will have about 18 million ounces, or about 20% of its reserves, hedged at a minimum price of $345 an ounce. Although that's well above spot market prices, hedging is anathema to gold bugs, who believe the practice contributes to a vast effort by central banks and broker/dealers to artificially suppress the price of gold. Some of the more aggressive conspiracy theorists accused Homestake CEO Jack Thompson, who will become vice chairman of the combined entity, of essentially selling out to the enemy.
But Thompson's enthusiasm was not shared by some other Homestake shareholders. "What's upsetting some people is that Homestake has hedged very little while Barrick is one of the worst offenders," said Jean-Marie Eveillard, manager of the $10 million First Eagle SoGen Gold fund. "I don't want to move from a nonhedger to the worst offender." Eveillard also expressed concern that Barrick will increase its hedging activities going forward. Oliphant's comments notwithstanding, that was one reason gold prices initially dipped on news of the deal, traders said. Finally, the 30% premium is "theoretical" because it's based on Barrick's stock price and not a cash offer, he said. The fund manager said he will either sell his existing Homestake position or sell the Barrick shares once the exchange is accomplished. If others follow a similar strategy, "then incidentally it should be positive for other mining companies that don't hedge" much, including Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE), Gold Fields of South Africa (GOLD:Nasdaq ADR), and Franco Nevada, he said. Newmont and Gold Fields, however, both ended lower on the session while Franco Nevada gained just 0.3% in Toronto Stock Exchange trading.
Black Blade: Here we see another Gold Fund manager who opposes the merger. Contact your gold fund managers and make the case against the merger. Get control of your shares (Homestake) and vote your proxy against the merger! Check out the article for the pro-con argument.
And finally, Eveillard is a man after my own heart - note the following:
"We've always looked at [gold] as an insurance policy and after a 20-year [gold] bear market, it's a cheap insurance policy," he said. "If something goes wrong to the point where financial assets get into real trouble, the upside in gold and more so gold stocks is tremendous and can offset substantial losses incurred in financial assets."
To that I say "Absolutely Right On!"
ax
(6/25/01; 21:34:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 56866)
WHAT IS EST. DIV.YIELD ON NEW BARRICK-HOMESTAKE ?
Does anyone have an estimate for a future dividend yield
on the new Barrick-Homestake Gold Mining Company based on
current price of each? For example, how would it compare
with the dividend yield at current prices of Anglo Gold (4.65 %),
Gold Fields (2.90 %) , and Harmony (2.62 %) ?
USAGOLD
(6/25/01; 21:23:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 56865)
Abuse of the Forum. . .
I have just pulled a notable poster's code. He not only posted a link to his website, he's selling advertising there. (I don't have a problem with him having a website; I don't care if he sells advertising; I do care if this site is used is used as a springboard for various web ventures.) This is a blatant breach of the rules. There have been several codes pulled of late for abuses of one sort or another and I will pull more if I have to. Though I do not particularly like losing a poster like the individual whose code was lifted, let this serve as notice that the rules will be enforced and abuse of this forum will not be allowed.
Black Blade
(6/25/01; 21:20:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 56864)
Barrick, Other Mining Cos Grapple With N Am Power Prices
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/story/djbn/?story=/news/stories/dj/20010427/BT20010427002995.htm&symbol=ABX
Updated: Friday, April 27, 2001 09:35 AM ET
By Lynne Olver
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Snippit of old article:
VANCOUVER (Dow Jones)--Higher electricity prices at home and in the western U.S. are pushing up costs for big Canadian mining firms that have to buy the juice, while pushing up earnings for those able to sell it.
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX, news, msgs) executives said Thursday they expect power costs at the Goldstrike property in Nevada to rise to about US$60 million in 2001 from US$43 million in 2000.
The mining company had budgeted for about US$50 million in 2001 power costs at Goldstrike, but told analysts the Nevada state legislature has approved higher rates charged by Sierra Pacific Resources' (SRP) utilities.
"(The legislation) increases our power costs to about 6.1U.S. cents a kilowatt-hour, a pretty substantial increase over last year's numbers," said John Carrington, Barrick vice-chairman and chief operating officer. "The impact will start in the second quarter."
In March, Barrick voluntarily curtailed power consumption at the Goldstrike roaster facility for five days while conducting maintenance. Carrington said the company agreed to the curtailment because it had no impact on gold production or earnings for the quarter or year.
"Our view about that is, we think it's a very important learning step as we move into the summer period when things may be a lot tougher for everybody than they are at the moment," Carrington said.
Black Blade: Energy costs at the US mines are devastating to the bottom line. Barrick is just one NA Gold miner that is in serious trouble. They have energy intensive operations with mining, milling,and autoclave facilities. They also have rising heavy equipment fuel costs.
Black Blade
(6/25/01; 21:10:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 56863)
Panic at Barrick and a Call To Arms!
Panic at Barrick
It was not much of a surprise that Barrick was in the hunt for an unhedged miner. They had no choice. They are heavily oversold on forward sales. I have mentioned this as a likely event over a year ago. Obviously a Newmont - Homestake merger would have been a better fit. Even a Placer Dome - Homestake merger would have been better. A better merger would have been AngloGold - Barrick. Barrick needed to acquire a lot of ounces to throw at their forward positions. The costs of production at the Nevada Goldstrike Property that includes the Betze-Post open pit mine and Meikle underground mine are rocketing higher (mostly due to higher energy costs and more high cost refractory ores). It is rumored that the inability to hold down costs may have led to management shakeups at the Nevada property.
Actually I thought that a AngloGold-Barrick attempt at taking on Goldfields was a possibility. Now the pressure is on AngloGold to step up to the plate and perhaps resume a takeover challenge, perhaps even making a move on unhedged Goldfields. It is going to get "interesting" over the next few months.
A Call To Arms
Homestake investors could throw a monkey wrench into Munky's takeover plans. Those who own Homestake shares in their own name (Not Broker - Street Name) can vote against the merger when the proxy is mailed. Other investors could call their brokers and demand to have their shares registered in their name so they can vote the proxy against the merger. Note - Most brokers will try to discourage investors from making this change because it takes power away from the broker. Stand firm and get control of your shares and vote against the merger. Another move is for those who hold mutual fund shares is to contact the fund managers and make the case against the merger. Ask that the fund vote their proxies against the merger. The Tocqueville Gold Fund for example, will likely oppose the merger as they prefer unhedged producers.
This move by Barrick is sheer panic and desperation as they are caught in a precarious position should gold prices rise. It is a sad end to one of the oldest companies on the NYSE.
- Black Blade
megatron
(6/25/01; 20:39:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 56862)
silvercollector
Dude! I never did get a real email from you. The one I got was messed. WASUP?
silvercollector
(6/25/01; 20:36:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 56861)
One quarter versus one-half
Does anyone have any ponderings on the interest rate adjustment tomorrow?
Would one quarter be bad news for the PM's?
Journeyman
(6/25/01; 20:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 56860)
Q & A @Playrightman
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/bigfloat.html
Hi Playrightman!
Check out the link for an article titled "BIG-Float: The American Damocles" that pretty much answers your questions - - - except what WILL cause it. The article let's Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan pretty much tell the story.
Also an article that updates the situation at:
http://www.journeyman.1hwy.com/J-BIG_OneIIIb.html
Regards,
Journeyman
SteveH
(6/25/01; 20:26:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 56859)
Enabler
Rich,
The hedge, the option, the derivative are what was enabled. What did this enabling. What event or events caused or allowed such a counter-party risk affair?
Steve
Max Rabbitz
(6/25/01; 20:01:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 56858)
Playrightman, Speculative Answer to # 3
An Epiphany
R Powell
(6/25/01; 19:26:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 56857)
Playrightman
I'll try
1) yes, overnight! Cause, loss of confidence
2) yes again
3) anything from the flapping of a butterfly's wings to Armagedden
You should be able to find lots of commentary on these questions in the archives. No charge, but you'll have to look and read. Have fun!
Rich
megatron
(6/25/01; 19:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 56856)
Playrightman
Don't hold your breath :^ ). I would not risk ANY major amounts of capital until long term moving averages had OBVIOUSLY indicated a change.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(6/25/01; 19:19:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 56855)
Playrightman
I'll give it the old gold try! (May be denominated in fiat though.)
For your first question, if the US was defeated in a war. As in conquered. Blitzkrieg style. Or a protracted war that causes the printing presses to hum ever faster, driving off even the most numbskulled foreign investors, with some other place for them to park their wealth. Intelligence screams physical gold ownership. However for die hard holders of fiat at that time in the future, perhaps the Euro or some other as yet unknown abomination against honest working people. Otherwise it is difficult to imagine the dollar collapsing "quickly" as in a few days. I view the US$ as seriously weakened already. Much like the stately oak in full leaf, above ground all looks well, below ground the roots are rotted. The oak awaits the next wind strong enough to topple it. Not a question of if, but when.
The second question I think may arise by a government decreeing private and public holding of US securities illegal. Yet it would most likely employ a deadline to be met. Japan cashing in comes to mind. But that would have to be preceded by asian geopolitical realignment that would take time to coalesce, difficult to imagine the timeframe of a few days. Also should the US government just come out and admit that it is tired of playing socialist, and just wants to be honest unto itself and declare itself the latest greatest commie nation. That would tend to clear the foreigners off Wall Street. IMHO
Playrightman
(6/25/01; 18:32:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 56854)
Seeking speculative answers to some questions I have
from people more experienced and knowledgeable in these matters than I am. (1) Is it possible that the decline of the dollar (which seems commonly to be regarded by goldbugs as about equal in significance to the Second Coming) might happen very rapidly. If so, how? (2) Related question: Would it be possible for devastatingly serious foreign disinvestment from American stocks and bonds to occur very rapidly--maybe not overnight, but in a few days? (3) What specific events, as opposed to general causes, might bring on the rapid transformations referred to in my other questions?
Any of you care to let your imaginations roam a bit?
Tree in the Forest
(6/25/01; 18:12:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 56853)
Report on gold
http://www.skolnicksreport.com/pingmkts.html
An interesting report on gold can be found at the above link. This is from Skolnick. Thank you Midas.
auspec
(6/25/01; 18:03:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 56852)
Update on GATA/Howe Case
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary17.html
A great example of how{e} to beat the BBs at their own game.
R Powell
(6/25/01; 17:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 56851)
Steve H
Enabler
May I put in my vote for the Enabler as derivative covers (hedges). These have a bad connotation among most goldbugs but can be used to offset or transfer risk. Any capital invested is placed at risk with the expectation that the rate of return increases with the amount of risk.
With the risk of loss offset by hedging, then the capital appears free (available) to be invested again. Result, huge positions held with very little real capital. Example, a long futures position can be initiated with a percentage of the total price. Risk is immediately created. Now a put option (the right to sell) can be purchased relatively cheaply (one time premium payment). So, if our futures position increases we make money with the increase (when we sell the long position for a profit). The profit will equal the increase minus the small put option price. Transaction fees are also an operating expense. If, instead, the futures position goes down, our option to sell will increase in value to offset our future's position loss. Given the same strike price for the option as for the future, they offset exactly. So the option is insurance against loss. If the position can be insured against loss with a cheap put option (inexpensive in comparison to the gains or losses the futures position might experience) then the initial capital used to purchase the long future is no longer at risk. The derivative has great leverage and so a large (huge) loss can be covered with the one time option premium (purchase price).
With "insured" against big loss positions, The Acme Huge Investment Co will now be tempted to reinvest somewhere else or multiply it's positions thinking that devivitive options will insure against loss. Positions can be taken on margin and insured against a big loss so why not invest 100 million even though there is only a fraction of that amount in the kitty?? Wouldn't this practice inflate the bubble?
LTCM found out that offseting risk does not always work and others found out (painfully) that transfering risk does not eliminate risk, transfering is passing it along to someone else (at a price of course). The risk still exists.
With "risk" insured, but large profit still available, would not the investor be tempted to increase the stakes?
Wouldn't the "game" inflate to acommodate bigger stakes with everyone involved eventually buying derivitives to offset some risk of default. Get us another deck of cards, I think we can build this thing a little higher.
I've often thought that it has become so complicated that no one knows exactly who, where or how much exists and a final tally, taken all at once, may never occur.
Does this make sense as an enabler??
Rich
Horatio
(6/25/01; 17:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 56850)
Barrick & Homestake
A wise broker once said to me "the markets are "perverse"
I have noticed that worthless companies like aol buy worthwhile companies like Time Warner.Bad drives out good,just like bad money drives good out of circulation.
The "perverse"companies always seem to make money .
Maybe something will come out of this merger ,(like a lot of money )although my heart will still be with Homestake.I will
despise Barrick with every dollar I make.
ET
(6/25/01; 17:38:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 56849)
Money laundering
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/06/24/stifgneur03002.html
Interesting money laundering advice from our friends at the Sunday Times, but unfortunately, the obvious vehicle gold, doesn't garner any mention. From the article;
"In Germany, Europe's largest economy, the black
economy accounts for 16% of gross domestic
product and is growing three times faster than the
economy as a whole, generating the equivalent of
about £30 billion in black-market cash.
""If you spend it on a car the finance office will know,
since each sale is registered with them," said
Herman Lang, a tax consultant. "If you buy a villa in
Spain, the Spanish will notify the German authorities.
So the alternative is to have a bit of fun: spoil the wife,
the mistress and yourself."
"Others are expected simply to transfer their money to
tax havens such as Luxembourg and Switzerland.
Road blocks have been set up in Germany near the
border with Luxembourg to check on people crossing
the frontier with large amounts of cash. "We are
seeing close on a 30% increase in the amount of
money found hidden in cars crossing the border,"
said Werner Theil, a policeman in Trier, near the
frontier."
Tree in the Forest
(6/25/01; 17:35:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 56848)
R Powell
Has leasing stopped Rich? Lease rates down now (as you have been reminding us). Currently at 1.5% per month. Maybe these guys are still doing it. They are pretty smart when it comes to making money but get real dumb when their special priveleges are revoked!
Randy (@ The Tower)
(6/25/01; 17:28:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 56847)
June/July 2001 News & Views... reminder
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Centennial's overseas clients (and anyone else who prefers digital to paper) are reminded that MK's latest newsletter has been available (for several days now) and can be accessed at the bottom of the 24-hr newswire found at the URL above.
auspec
(6/25/01; 17:14:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 56846)
Journeyman, Black Blade, Peter Asher, tedw, & all concerned
First, please allow me to repost the words of my friend, Peter Asher, that I am totally in agreement with:
"Most of those Palestinians and Israelis are people like us trying to survive in an insane world.. The main difference is the degree of conflagration on their streets and sidewalks. They have no more control of their alleged leaders than we do and are just as subject to their media and political spin as our sheeple are."
"The essence of prejudice is judging any SINGLE individual by the actions of others of the same race, creed or color. Even individuals having the same specific religious belief can engage in very different applications of that to the environment around them."
That is where I live, and if my term 'antisimetic' violated these principles, it was indeed a poor choice of words. The MiddleEast problems are not going to be solved on this forum, yet they do hold significance for each of us as well as our precious yellow metal. Other than the gold connection this is a topic that is totally inflammatory to many. That being said, when I see a particular poster putting up a significant % of his posts as what nearly every rational person would consider to be 'anti-Israel', I will typically join in in condemnation of same. No apologies for that. I have never seen you do that Jman. Do you notice most people discussing this issue have little trouble finding fault with both warring parties? Include me with that group, please. On the other hand a regular and one sided condemnation of Israel will not pass without protest, yesterday, today, or tomorrow. Count on it.
If being a Zionist means the Israeli people have a right to a homeland and to live in peace, then you can call me a Zionist. Which side is it that has their ultimate goal of wiping their sworn enemy from the entire region? Talk about a determined and surviving underdog.
This subject has gotta go, it has become a MAJOR drag. Book is closed permanently, hopefully.
Respectfully,
auspec
JMB
(6/25/01; 17:09:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 56845)
LAMPREY_65
Your conclusion is outstanding. Thanks
I think the Big Mick is right....we're getting real close....btw, that's Murphy.
JMB
(6/25/01; 17:00:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 56844)
For you paper players.
TRC CAPITAL CORP is making a tender offer for MDG. $12.10 Canadian. Good until 7-13-01. Any thoughts? I kinda figured that AEM and MDG would hook up. THAT, would be a sweet gold mining outfit, imo natch.
lamprey_65
(6/25/01; 16:55:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 56843)
My take on the ABX/HM Merger
Today the longest continuously listed company on the NYSE was acquired (Homestake Mining).
As a recent purchaser of Homestake stock, I am saddened by the deal...although I'm sitting on a 68% gain in less than six months, I purchased the shares for a move to $20 a share at $400 POG.
On the bright side, however, I see this as positive for POG. It has been evident for some time that Barrick Gold and Anglogold are the two most well-connected companies in the industry...they've managed to ride the carry trade down and now they look to be unwinding their positions - Barrick through the purchase of Homestake and Anglogold's attempts at Goldfields and WMC Limited.
Barrick is heavily short both gold AND silver - Homestake is a leading producer of both.
Yes, justice would have Barrick and Anglogold pay a heavy price for their facilitation of the carry trade and gluttony by the short sellers of bullion. Unfortunately, that type of justice doesn't happen much in business.
But, like I said, I'm bullish on the deal.
Look at it this way...
Do you really think Barrick would pay such a nice premium for Homestake today if they thought POG was going to stagnate or fall, thus eroding Homestake's share price tomorrow?
Me neither.
R Powell
(6/25/01; 16:02:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 56842)
Two fer day
Rates were down again today. This is disappointing but if the Greenman cuts the Fed. rate again the carry trade should be dead. Even without more Fed. reductions, this trade has stopped, hasn't it?
POG for August was up $1.40 to $274.70.
POS for July was down $.50 to 429.8 cents.
Both traded in a narrower trading range than we've seen recently. Calm before the storm?
The mining stocks ended the day up just a hair, so we have two out of three. Does the FOMC announce their rate decision tomorrow or Wed.?? Perhaps one cut too many if they really want to keep the U.S. dollar so strong against the world. We'll see.
We must be busy today! I've been waiting to speak but couldn't access this post page. With everyone in a talkative mood, I'll keep my mouth shut and read (learn).
Rich
Tree in the Forest
(06/25/01; 15:25:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 56841)
Horatio
Ha Ha Ha!! Good one. And I thought Goldfields might be headed down this path with Anglogold. Who knows. It still could happen.
megatron
(06/25/01; 15:10:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 56840)
Gold and Hubbard
Actually, L.Ron was obsessed with finding gold from his 'past incarnations' as a pirate and a Roman. He never could 're-locate' the sites accurately. He also claimed Machiavelli stole the transcript for 'the Prince' from him.
Life is anything but boring...
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(06/25/01; 14:59:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 56839)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/st_gaudens.html
Quality and Quantity
Call us to discuss the strategy that's right for YOU.
TOLL FREE PHONE
(US) 800-869-5115
(Can) 1-800-294-9462
(Aus) 0011-800-2761-2761
(EU) 00-800-2760-2760 |
Peter Asher
(06/25/01; 14:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 56838)
@ Journeyman
Thanks for filling in the blanks.
On a side subject, I hope Leigh doesn't take you literally on your gender specifity in <<<"There's nothing more predictable than a stubborn human that's made up her mind.">>>
Journeyman
(06/25/01; 14:28:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 56837)
filthy lucre @working-kirk
Hi Sir Peter!
No hostility toward Scientology (or you) - - - just wondered at your reference to Hubbard since Scientology is somewhat of a lightening rod. And you gave no previous Scientology "symptoms."
AVATAR! is an interesting spin-off.
As opposed to my usual posts here that the future is difficult to predict stands human "cybernetics," which leads me to quip, "There's nothing more predictible than a stubborn human that's made up her mind."
It's somewhere in the middle, somewhere between Turnaround and Hi-Hat, where that part of physical "reality" amenable to change caused by us humans is shaped. IMO.
Hi regards Sir Peter,
Journeyman
Horatio
(06/25/01; 14:26:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 56836)
Homestake & Barrack
I dispise Barrack and love Homestake,its like watching your mother-in-law drive over a cliff in your new Cadillac.
CoBra(too)
(06/25/01; 13:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 56835)
@ Megatron -
Sir, please go to www:homestake.com for info, I will answer to my best ability later as I am a bit pressed for time at the mom - thanks for understanding - cb2
megatron
(06/25/01; 13:46:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 56834)
CoBra
Thanks but I realize it will be a daunting task to look through these statements(got em off the website). Thanks anyway. Any off the record stuff you have would be interesting.
Peter Asher
(06/25/01; 13:46:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 56833)
Journeyman (06/25/01; 09:35:43MTmsg#: 56815)
Re your <<< Ever hear of AVATAR!? >>>
Only once. There was a horse by that name running at Belmont in the fifties.
I looked it up in the dictionary and it refers to the Hindu concept of deities descending from heaven to earth, sort of a plurality of Christ.
I quoted Hubbard yesterday as I saw it as a good non-denominational definition of your <<<<" a simple first cause." Like the Big Bang. Or for those who don't like that,
God. >>>>
For myself, all my religious and philosophical concepts are limited to what appears real from study and observation. I don't believe in Belief.
Interestingly, one of the most basic principles of Hubbard's philosophy has just now been delineated by Hi Hat's <<<< "The primary dis-connect that fosters apathy and cynicism is to escape into the oh so convenient mode of [victimhood]. --- Power in anybody's life can only be attained by each individual taking 100% responsibility for their as well as the World circumstance.>>>>
J-Man;
You appear to have some antagonistic intent in your question just posted. This is getting way off topic. If we are going to pursue this further, let's go back to our E-mail where we were recently concurring on the struggle for truth and logic.
Tree in the Forest
(06/25/01; 13:46:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 56832)
megatron
HM said they were shutting down the original Homestake mine in June. Guess they might as well shut down the whole company at this point.
The Stranger
(06/25/01; 13:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 56831)
CoBra
Servus.
The premium Barrick is offering you as inducement comes right out of the pockets of Barrick's stockholders. A quick glance at today's relative price action between Homestake and Barrick bears this out. It is up to you to decide whether you want to realize this premium by selling the stock and investing the proceeds elsewhere. I know you will act wisely.
Interestingly, in announcing the merger, Homestake confesses to having a 2-million-ounce short position of its own. I wasn't aware of this. Were you? Needless to say, such revelations appear to justify the cynicism you've expressed about some of the people in this industry.
megatron
(06/25/01; 13:27:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 56830)
Cobra
Could you list Homestakes assets and reserves as well as their exposure to higher energy costs. There are some strange things about this arrangement/merger. Homestake shut down a high cost mine earlier last year did it not?
barnacle bill
(06/25/01; 13:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 56829)
msncb
I just did a search on MSNBC website. I entered the words" truth, gold, & price". Twenty seconds later I was informed there was nothing.
We should make bets on how long until Homestakes underground ounces are all sold forward.
CoBra(too)
(06/25/01; 13:13:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 56828)
Re- Stranger - You've said good for HM -Shareholders?
-Sorry, my friend, as I am one, I don't quite get your thoughts there. Even if HM may have outperformed the rest of the group in paper terms, the company has led its shareholders to believe that the potential of any upwards bias in the POG is going to translate into sharply rising earnings and their asset base, i.e. via their unencumbered gold reserves. And as this was HM's l.t. strategy - as can be seen in HM's role as its stock was a proxy for a gold mining index in the 30'ies, personally, I believe it was black mail by a BB to see the hedging game going on.
... and even if it may be pure speculation on my part - I didn't buy HM for a quick paper profit - no, I've bought it for the long haul and a guarantee for appreciating real assets sound in the ground, hidden away from the foray of the day.
Looks like another major defected to the far side - and I'm sad to say that the only way to play this game from here on is - get physical! All else will be defrauded by the ptb - cb2
The Stranger
(06/25/01; 11:44:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 56827)
More on Barrick/Homestake
The 12% of Homestake shares already committed to the merger belong to a single investor. Management admitted as much in this morning's conference call. Still, they should have no trouble getting the go-ahead from the rest of the stockholders. Turning the deal down would amount to shooting one's self in the foot.
The Stranger
(06/25/01; 11:38:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 56826)
Barrick/Homestake
Interesting that Homestake initiated this move. One might have thought Barrick was attempting to dilute their hedge risk. But not so, according to this morning's conference call.
Make no mistake, this is a good day for Homestake shareholders. In what has already been a very good year for them, they now have made another 20% or so in just a matter of minutes. But it won't be easy replacing those shares. Unhedged or lightly hedged gold miners that are liquid are hard to find. No wonder the illiquid ones have risen so much, of late. There can be little doubt this developing scarcity is making the metal itself a more compelling investment by the day!
For the record, Barrick management used the conference call this morning as an opportunity to declare, without equivocation, that the company is at "absolutely no risk" in the event of a sudden dramatic rise in the price of gold.
miner49er
(06/25/01; 11:36:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 56825)
dragonfly re: 56634, re: 56584
btw...Sir dragonfly, I missed your comments from the other day...
Thank you for your words...
miner
MarkeTalk
(06/25/01; 11:22:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 56824)
Barrick/Homestack Merger. . .Co(Bra)too
After reading about today's proposed merger of Barrick and Homestake Mining, I was able to glean that only 12% of the shares have been committed so far. Co(Bra)too brought up a very interesting point about Herr August von Finck being a large shareholder. Do you know how many shares he owns? My thoughts were: If enough minority shareholders see through the b...s...and see exactly what Barrick is trying to accomplish (i.e. "cya" in the forward market), then perhaps these minority shareholders will reject the offer and hold out for a much higher price. In effect, this action would kill the deal and preserve Homestake intact.
Another thought along these lines which occurred to me is: perhaps Barrick has been planning for this day all along and has covertly been buying shares through proxies and "friendly" shareholders. So that when the votes are cast, they know it is a done deal. Just a thought.
The Stranger
(06/25/01; 11:13:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 56823)
In This Week's Barron's
The material below is excerpted. To read the complete article, see Barron's.
JUNE 25, 2001
Ravi Shanker Scores Hits in Dissonant Market
By Leslie P. Norton
Ramakrishna Shanker is having a great year. Shanker, who goes by the name Ravi, last appeared in Barron's on November 6, as a panelist on the Asia Roundtable. He has a white goatee, a measured demeanor and an analytical mind. The latter he honed as an engineer in Silicon Valley for more than a decade. Then he went to Goldman Sachs, and these days, steers Goldman's Asia-Pacific portfolios from Singapore.
"Those who look at crystal balls must learn to eat broken glass," Shanker intoned at the time of our roundtable. He didn't say anything about learning to drink champagne.
Since then, the nine stock picks he shared with the panel are up 10.7% on average. Hardly the sort of gain U.S. investors became accustomed to in the bull market. But compare it with a loss of 15.5% for Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia ex-Japan index, a drop of 14.7% for the S&P 500, and a collapse of 41.6% for the Nasdaq -- and Shanker is looking psychic...
...The broken-glass injunction in mind, we went ahead and asked Shanker, on a rain-spattered day in Singapore last week, what he's thinking about...
...With much of Asia being a warrant on the U.S. economy, Shanker shared his macro view. With the Fed cutting rates so rapidly, and M3 growing 14%-15%, recovery is reasonably easy to imagine. What will it look like? "I'm betting you will see more inflation. Oil is up, medical costs are rising, unit labor costs are higher, housing costs are still up there, and electricity is sky-high. The Fed is close to zero real rates now. With another 25-50 basis-point cut, you're below zero. The nonbelievers talk about excess capacity. Yes, there's huge excess capacity in networking and fiberoptics. But in oil and electricity?"
Don't expect a deflationary scenario. The U.S. is a huge net debtor, unlike Japan in 1990. A net debtor won't permit deflation. What goes up? "Commodities, hard assets and property, even in Asia. If the Fed keeps cutting rates, the U.S. dollar comes under pressure, and... yes, he likes gold plays...
Sierra Madre
(6/25/01; 10:55:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 56822)
working kirk...your post No. 56797
Really good post!
Lots of good sense in your words.
Here's a phrase may come in handy to all. My dad used to say this. He's passed on. I think it's worth remembering:
"There's always more THINGS, than money"
And that's paper money he was talking about.
There's a world crammed with THINGS. Only a tiny amount of gold in the world, by comparison.
This isn't the time to buy THINGS. It's the time to buy...
GOLD, of course.
We wait and watch this crazy world run on to its destruction.
Sierra Madre
Perplexed
(6/25/01; 10:49:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 56821)
Something to think about
1st Samual: An it came to passs that when the evil spirit from God was upon Saul, that David took an harp and played with his hand, so Saul was refreshed, and was well, and the evil spirt departed fromn him.:
Looks like God is handing out evil sprits to just about anyone how wants one now, but has neglected to furnish another David. As Black Says: Things could get interesting.
Journeyman
(06/25/01; 10:17:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 56820)
filthy lucre @working-kirk
http://www.sciencenews.org/20010602/note11ref.asp
Hi working-kirk!
You sure got that right!
Dirty money harbors bacterial dangers
+
More than half of 68 dollar bills collected at a high school sporting event and a grocery store in Ohio hosted bacteria that commonly infect poeple in hospitals or those with depressed immune systems. -Science News, Week of June 2, 2001; Vol. 159, No. 22
Another excellent reason for transactional gold!
Or money laundering.
Regards,
Journeyman
Tree in the Forest
(06/25/01; 10:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 56819)
Journeyman
I think US_Army(RET) was trying to compare the Palestinian situation to the Native Americans. Not a good analogy IMHO. Like trying to compare apples and oranges. While I agreed with some of the things he said the situation in Israel is very different. When Israel declared its independence, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem (who thought Hitler was a great man) told Arabs to leave the area until Arab armies succeeded in pushing the Jews into the sea. Then they would be able to return and take all of the land. This didn't happen. The Arabs who stayed retained their claim on their lands. The Arabs who left became disenfranchised and were later labeled "Palestinians" but only after the 1967 war. There was no mention of them prior to that time. They have become political pawns in the hands of their own people. The whole Palestinian issue is very recent history. They haven't lived on this land for millenia like the American Indians.
Journeyman
(06/25/01; 09:51:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 56818)
Non-interventionism @Black Blade
Hi BB!
Your nice relaxed call for a "non-interventionist foreign policy" is the most practical.
And of course "they" won't not intervene!
Regards,
Journeyman
P.S. As usual, greatly appreciate your excellent energy commentary!
megatron
(06/25/01; 09:42:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 56817)
Merger
If a rival hedger blow out were imminent, it is in Barrick's interest to aquire/merge for two reasons. One,it lessens the potential to affect Barrick's shareholder/media perception about the downside of hedging. Two, it allows all sorts of accounting methods to be used to obfuscate the reality of Homestakes hedge book. Plus they get some assets. Good deal for them and bad for the POG.
Journeyman
(06/25/01; 09:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 56816)
Intrigues @justamereBear
Hi justamere!
You wrote:
"One wee thing. Your future EconoWar-- Well it is here now, altho many people don't recognise it, and it does not take quite the form you, or anyone else I have seen, think. (it may be that some of the combatents do not understand they are in a war.) It is just now evolving into a war, just as all the other wars grew and grew, till the shooting started. And it is the most vicious war to date."
So, are ya gonna tell us how to recognize this EconoWar - - - or will we be all be stuck with many sleepless nights?
Regards,
Journeyman
P.S. What's your new project?
P.P.S. Will indeed respond to your message from last week --- just back and trying to catch up before I have to leave again!
Journeyman
(06/25/01; 09:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 56815)
Affiliations? @Peter Asher
#56758 So, Sir Peter, you have a Scientology connection, eh? Ever hear of AVATAR!?
Regards,
Journeyman
USAGOLD
(06/25/01; 09:30:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 56814)
All. . .
Please forgive the writing errors below. As always, trying to write these reports in a professional manner in an hour or less (without the benefit of an editor) might be next to impossible. I hope the message comes across. That's more important to me than making sure every comma and word are in their proper place. Those of you who comprise my long term, and forgiving, readership, I thank you for your indulgence.
Journeyman
(06/25/01; 09:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 56813)
Observations @Peter Asher, JustamereBear, Turnaround, Hi-Hat,, WorkingKirk, ALL
Good points all!
Sir Peter, as you suggest, it's like blaming ALL the California "grasshoppers" for, essentially, what their "leaders" did. I was a "grasshopper" there about two years ago, so from the "groupist" viewpoint, I guess I should be blamed.
It's clear that all Israelis aren't directly responsible for what their government does. But since it's somewhat difficult to escape being labeled as the chattel of some gvt -- since you pretty much have to carry a passport -- you might want to avoid certain "neighborhoods."
Why did those folks living in Israel choose to live there? Telling point from justamere on the power of religion and belief. The answer as to why the original Israelis picked barren territory may be because the leaders knew they had to choose something symbolic that would motivate enough believers. They themselves might have coveted, say, Oahu.
The problem is, most folks don't yet make the distinction Sir Peter has so ably stated. We get grouped, whether or not we like it. And often absorb punishment which should be targeted to the "leaders" or others instead. My favorite billboard from the "Gulf War" was, "Don't bomb Iraq: It punishes the wrong people."
Interesting Rockgrabber put bin Laden in the discussion today - - - originally he was only going to target the U.S. Government and U.S. military. Then he decided to go after "taxpayers" too. Apparently like Timothy McVeigh, he found it too difficult to make the distinction between those "responsible" (the FBI planners of the WACO massacre in McVeigh's case) and those locationally close to them. McVeigh settled for the building where the planning was done. Clearly bin Laden gave up pin-poing targeting when he bombed those two American embassies in Africa.
If the whole apparatus of the U.S. Government couldn't avoid killing the 23 Branch Davidian kids, I guess we can't expect less well equiped and financed folks to do any better.
Governments euphamise the death of innocent bystanders with the code-phrase, "collateral damage."
Are we responsible for what our leaders do? How do we control them - - - clearly elections don't work? So do we control our leaders - - - or move? What about our countrymen who can't afford to leave? Where do we go if we leave?
All this is directly related to the "arm-chair philosophy" of Turnaround and Hi-Hat too, I think.
And probably a good reason to have at least some of your wealth concentrated in the hard stuff.
Regards,
Journeyman
P.S. We may have lost the essence of US_Army(RET) (06/24/01; 18:45:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 56764), the message that started this discussion.
USAGOLD
(06/25/01; 09:24:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 56812)
Today's Report: Some Thoughts on COT Report, Barrick/Homestake Merger
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010625/sfm102a.html
6/25/01 (www.usagold.com). . . . Gold
continued to rally quietly with most of the investment
world on the sidelines waiting to see if the Fed will
actually enact the widely anticipated one- quarter point
rate cut. Gold was firm in Europe with London traders
eying Wednesday's over the counter option expiration.
From this morning's Reuters gold report: "Signs of
rising inflation and the general deterioration of the global economy are factors supporting gold at the moment as
they might prompt a flurry of bullion buying. Gold
tends to be viewed more favourably as an inflation
hedge when financial situations worsen and equities and
securities markets suffer."
According to Friday's COMEX Commitment of Traders
report, speculators have shifted decidedly to the long
side of the paper gold market. The net speculator
position is 18,555 contracts long. While some see the
building long position as the potential for future sales,
others see it as a decided shift from the short psychology that has dominated this market over the past several
years. Those who see the long position as an overhang
should consider the fact that a long is just as easily rolled
forward as a short.
At present, we do not have an educated opinion on the
net effect of the Barrick/ Homestake merger, as we have
yet to analyze the facts laid before us in toto. We do
have some quickly formed opinions though that might
be of interest. Our apologies if this appears to be
throwing water on Barrick/Homestake's big day.
On the negative side for gold, the short sellers at Barrick
have plenty of wood to throw on the hedging fire
through the acquisition, though the yellow doesn't seem
to bothered by that prospect in the early going. Perhaps
the general market consensus is that all that can be sold
forward by the two combined has already been sold
forward by Barrick. If that is the case, the merger from
Barrick's side is nothing more than a successful
acquisition of in-ground ounces already sold foward that
can be mined below their forward prices. Mine costs are
rising after all, and we have seen reports lately that the
rising energy costs at Barrick's Nevada property were
putting a crimp in their cost of production.
On the positive side, stock investors might finally
wake-up to the fact that today's rationally hedged,
pro-gold mining company can become the opposite
overnight. We will say again that the best, most reliable
gold investment is the physical metal itself. Just as
quickly as you can say the word "merger", your bet on a
rising gold market can be neutralized at or transformed
to a bet against gold at worst. Homestake, the
anti-hedging hero is now Homestake the fallen
anti-hedging hero having joined forces with the most
notorious hedger in the industry. How is that going to
sit with pro-gold investors who went out their way to
acquire Homestake when it was a rational hedger? Not
well, it would seem to me.
With respect to the hedging numbers, here's a quick
thumbnail sketch (Link to Reuter's article above): Homestake
which only had about 2 million ounces sold forward
now becomes a company with 18 million ounces sold
forward at an "average annual minimum price" of $345.
With production at 6 million ounces per year, that means
that three years of production are already sold at $345. If
the price goes above the $345 figure, Barrick claims that
they can take advantage of the run-up although no claims
have ever been made public as to what degree Barrick
might be able to benefit from a run-up. Though these
claims on the face defy common sense and have led to
some very pointed questions from stockholders and gold
stock analysts, Barrick steadfastly holds to the notion
that they can play both markets at the same time without
consequence. There is no explanation as to just what the
words"average annual minimum price" might mean.
With that in mind, we will be watching the course of
events surrounding the Barrick/Homestake merger with
a great deal of interest. In early Toronto Stock Exchange
Barrick is down $1.30 at $23.75 and Homestake is up
$1.50 reflecting the premium offered by Barrick for the
stock. We'll see how Homestake owners react to the
merger.
That's it for today. We'll post more over the next few
days if circumstances and events warrant it. Thank you.
MK
Rockgrabber
(6/25/01; 09:01:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 56811)
(No Subject)
Barrick now has covered there calls. Interesting play that has been made. Barrick seems to know the insiders of this game, so they had better put there knowledge to work. Good way to cover your positions Barrick.
Rockgrabber
(6/25/01; 08:56:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 56810)
Another Joker in the Deck
http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/240601/dtlfor06.asp
Mr. Bin Laden has not been sleeping.
Rockgrabber
(06/25/01; 08:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 56809)
War is closer and closer day by day (Economic Shock War)
http://washingtontimes.com/world/20010625-882263.htm
This was made to happen this way by Mystery Babylon. It has just set itself up to perfectly. Right at this time, a perfect escape route.
CoBra(too)
(06/25/01; 08:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 56808)
Re: ABX/HM Merger
Just curious what August von Finck, as single largest
shareholder of HM has to say about this move. As it seems to me he has paid around US$ 9 on average for his sizeable stake in HM - and now getting $ 8.71 for his pains? and on top some pre-sold gold ... at rock bottom prices.
Well, as I bought mine at $5 - good riddance ... cb2
justamereBear
(6/25/01; 08:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 56807)
Peter Asher Working Kirk
Peter 56789
Hi there my friend. With a number like that, maybe you should be trying the lottery tonight. :>D
In trying to get inside the minds of the people nearest the Israeli conflict, I came across a book that, with some thought, is great at showing one side at least. It is fascinating to see what part belief in a set of tenents can do. It is amazing what part religion plays in tough times.
I looked at the cover, which is a picture of 2 women set in a rather barren part of the world, and one of my first thoughts was; THIS is a land of Milk and honey? Why don't they at least fight over a chunk of land that has some value for growing things?
Anyway, The title is "The Garden and the Gun" by Erna Paris, a not very devout Jew, who was trying to understand WHY there was so much feeling, irrational feeling, and why they might, for example, fight over a pretty worthless chunk of land. Note, howeverthe awesomeness does not come through without some cogitation.
Working Kirk 56796
One wee thing. Your future EconoWar-- Well it is here now, altho many people don't recognise it, and it does not take quite the form you, or anyone else I have seen, think. (it may be that some of the combatents do not understand they are in a war.) It is just now evolving into a war, just as all the other wars grew and grew, till the shooting started. And it is the most vicious war to date. And yes I like gold in this war. But I like knowledge better. As with all wars, you can prevail against impossible odds with the right knowledge. (and perhaps a little gold) (A lot is better)
j'Bear
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(6/25/01; 08:12:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 56806)
Journeyman
The term anti semitism seems bizarre to use in the context of the Isrealis vs. Palestinians, since both are Semitic.
The Palestinians for decades were without a country and were/are treated like dirt among existing Arab states. Much of the working poor to middle class in these countries has been supplied by Palestinian refugees on work permits-for generations. They are never allowed citizenship. It is odd the term does not apply to the oppression of Palestinians. (Well not really!)
CoBra(too)
(6/25/01; 08:11:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 56805)
Sorry, Correction - ABX/HM (NOT NEM)
-See- am frustrated - about it too - cb2
CoBra(too)
(6/25/01; 08:09:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 56804)
ABX/NEM Prtoposed Merger ... Murder!
Here's another non hedger being gobbled up by - Dang it! ... the great Hedge-Hog.
I'll have to step up physical buying as my former unencumbered gold in the ground doesn't look so good anymore.
Well, at least I've got more $$$ to spend from the sale of my HM shares.
cb2
Tree in the Forest
(6/25/01; 07:50:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 56803)
abx & hm
Looks like a lot of jockeying for position before the "you know what" hits the fan.
Rockgrabber
(6/25/01; 07:50:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 56802)
Barrick buys Homestake for 3.5 billion, or $8.71 per share
We know Barrick loves a low gold price. There looks to be one good reason as to why. Makes me sick to see them get all that gold for so little.
Mr Bin Laden has been busy I understand. Coming from a spokesman for him, he says that they are going to launch an all out assault at U.S. and Israeli targets in the next two weeks. I believe them. Be interesting to see what targets he has chosen. I would not doubt Crude Oil call options could be a good holding right now.
Tree in the Forest
(6/25/01; 07:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 56801)
(No Subject)
Trading halted on both Barrick and Homestake.
Chris Powell
(6/25/01; 07:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 56800)
Barrick buys Homestake
Just announced.
Max Rabbitz
(6/25/01; 06:52:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 56799)
Steve
You said "I believe that there is an event or law or both or something else that can be pointed to that precipitated the great credit bubble" and then gave a good list of possibilities that contributed. You could argue back to the establishment of the Federal Reserve System and then look for causes of why a Central Bank of bankers was allowed. The present bubble stands alone in it's grandeur. Why now? Perhaps we'll get an F. Scott Fitzgerald to explain it to us later. You might add to your list Madison Avenue hype and the mass media, and the general reduction in personal responsibility expected of the masses.
I think a major proximate cause has been the trend toward looser standards as power has gradually shifted from industry and production towards the financial institutions. Your mention of the repeal of the Glass-Steigel banking act in 1999 (?) is another indication of their growing power. Look how quickly Treasury Secretary O'Neil changed from supporting a market valued dollar to a strong dollar policy. Someone had a talk with him. I believe the British bankers did the same thing with the over-valued Pound after WWI to the detriment of British Industry. This change in O'Neils stance makes me question the administrations gold policy. I tend to think GATA is correct in that U.S. gold at West Point was swapped for German gold. Yet Trail Guide says no, that it is being reserved for the oil trade and is still ours. If West Point Gold has not been swapped and then loaned out in Europe where is the extra gold coming from? Veneroso's estimates of 10,000 to 16,000 tonnes loaned/sold are not easy to come up with. You almost have to include the U.S. reserves. The truth will eventually be revealed. As Trail Guide says, we watch together.
Belgian
(6/25/01; 06:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 56798)
J. Taylor (TGTS) : ???????????
" Taylor's sage market vieuws " (GE)
Quotes : .....ultimate meltdown......
.....gold will be price not in HUNDREDS of dollars but in THOUSANDS of dollars per ounce....
J. Taylor's portfolio :
- 2% ( TWO PERCENT )!!! in gold and silver bullion ????
No comments.
working-kirk
(6/25/01; 04:49:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 56797)
You Can't Eat Gold (Repost from about 3 month ago)
http://www.vintagecornets.com/html/mainpictures_vintage_cornet_co.htm
You keep hearing people say:
"You can't eat gold!" Implying it will be totally useless
if there is a total collapse. Well, I want to answer that
for you and other who might have some doubt about the
usefulness of gold.
First by saying "You can't eat gold" you make it sound like
that it the end of the argument. But let's consider using
the argument in a different way.
"You can eat shelter!"
"You can't eat health care"
"You can't eat the things for protection and self defense
like guns or how to fight"
"You can't eat art."
And I am sure if you think about it there are other you you
need but you "can't eat."
Yet, while using your argument if times get "interesting!"
You can use gold to buy those things and other you will
need. And people while hoarding food will find the other
thing hard to hoard.
Take shelter. If the market crash, there will be a lot of
people who have extra real estate they don't need but will
need to raise money. I don't own a house. And since I was
born born there is a chance I will never get to own a house
like many of my generation, unlike their parents. But If I
offer what little gold I have to someone who has two houses
I do stand an outside chance of becoming a homeowner. Since the market has crashed there will be a lot of sellers and not a lot of buyers. In normal times it hard enough to sell something. And if a house has been on the market long
enough a seller will consider all offers no matter how low
or outrageous. I can't say what the price of gold may be.
Probably very high but I suspect the gold cartel has more
than one trick up its sleeve to keep the price down. I
offer all I have in gold. I may have to search but I do
think eventually someone will accept. They will accept for
these reasons:
1.) He may be able to use the gold to buy some of the other needs I explain later.
2.) He sells at a loss (face value of the gold) but sometimes people sell at a loss to help someone who is
worthy and to get them out of a jam.
I knew a friend who was able to buy a house far
under market value. A 100,000 house for $25,000.
The owner was going through a very messy divorce and
wanted to just dump any possible asset so the wife didn't get it.
He sold the house to the tenant renting it, a young
person like me working hard but not making much and
like me not likely ever to afford a house. But the owner said better him than the wife. In other words
he was worthy and the owner was willing to help him become a home owner.
3.) He sells because he receives no other others. There
have been people so frustrated they say "For two cents, I'll sell this dump and have done so!"
I am sure you can think of other case where I find someone
willing to sell me a home for my gold. So let's talk about
health care.
If we are in a situation, where people won't sell food for
gold, that means we are facing a massive famine. And if
there is famine, there is sickness. You will want to see a
doctor. And so will everybody else.
What makes you different? If there is a famine, everyone
will have no food. If there is hyperinflation, money is
worthless. What if you offered the doctor gold. The doctor will consider it. He know he can trade health care for food but there may be other things he/she wants Since gold is true money, it makes it easy for the doctor to accept. And since gold can be easily hidden, he get to keep the real money (gold)
But you argue, most people don't recognize gold. How will
he determine its value?
First, learning about gold is not the hardest thing to do.
You as a seller can teach him the value.
You can talk about how people reward with gold like "Gold Metal" "Gold Star" or how precious works of art use gold
and silver (I collect trumpets and cornets. For an example
of an artwork suing gold and sivler check this link
http://www.vintagecornets.com/html/mainpictures_vintage_cornet_co.htm
Second, I think more people will recognize gold, and know
the value and be more willing to accept it whether we have
hyperinflation or depression. The factor in getting people
to recognize them will be the new Saccawa gold coin. You
and I know that bronze coin as well as being ugly is worthless. But the general public doesn't know. At at first glance the color between the two is close enough so a person who is curious will recognize true gold. Of course you could argue the government printed up those tokens as a way of getting the public to reject gold.
My counter-arguement is Whenever the government tried to do one thing it usually has the opposite effect. I think of the Saccawa coin as a training tool for the public. Just as a gold prospector must first learn of iron pyrite or fool's gold so he know real gold, I
think the public will learn about real gold from this
foolish coin.
Next, I am probably the first person to argue "A gun is
totally useless because you can't eat it. And you shouldn't learn how to fight for the same reason. Well, you don't want to eat a gun. It the OTHER PERSON you want to die of lead poisoning!"
A gun is a mean of self defense and you have a moral right
to defend yourself however the means. Just because people
misuse guns doesn't mean you should forsake a means of self
defense. Now in a crisis situation you are now going to
sell your guns for gold. And this brings to mind one of the best movies I ever since and it is revenant since it talks about gold. The movie I am talking about is "The Treasure Of Sierra Madre" with Humphrey Bogart as a down and out hobo and Walkter Houston as a grizzled old prospector.
The scene is where the Bogie and Friends(?) get surrounded
by a bunch of bandits. The bandits say: "You don't want
those rusty guns, Why don't you give us those piece of
junk! Throw them down. We give you a shiny watch for your
guns
Bogie answer "You keep you watch! We'll keep ours guns!"
And then he shoots a hole in the watch
The movie and scene also contains the classic line "Badges!
No don't have no badgesz! We don't need no stinkin'
badgezs!"
While the movie is GREAT! I also recommend reading the
book. One thing the book covers that the movie doesn't is
the relationship between oil and gold. (Otherwise, why was
Bogie on that oil rig?)
The movie and book leads to my last thing you can't eat, and that is art. What is the purpose of art? According to Ayn Rand, It is to refresh the soul. Now I plan on making my own art, but to those who socked away enough gold, you may want to consider using your gold to buy art in the trying times to come. I promise you'll get it at bargain basement prices like you are getting your gold now.
Last, there is one other thing that you can't eat but I
think is absolutely necessary.
"You can't eat freedom." One of the things that lead me to
gold is a lot of Liberian writers like Robert Ringer and
Harry Browne in talking about the need for freedom, talk
about gold and how the two are linked. I can't only give
you a personal example.
As you know, the country has stopped saving. The banks in
all honesty are not encouraging saving. I have always been
a saver. But I can only save in small amounts. Usually my
saving account has been under a $100.00 Well, I am a small
saver but at least I am a saver. I noticed one day my
(former) bank starting charging me all sorts of service fees where they did not before. Usually $3.00 or so. Now that may not be much to you, but having been broke too many
times, it is a lot for me. I figured any bank that needs to take what little money I have is a bank in trouble! So I closed my little bank account and starting saving in gold.
A few months later I hear all sort of rumors on the internet that this bank is having serious trouble with its
derivatives. I am glad I got out of that bank. But what
the gold does it give me freedom in this way.
I was working at a job I hate. So I quit! Decided to
practice my trumpet. Now most musicians starve. I wasn't
starving For every month I could cash in some gold I saved
to pay my bills. I wasn't happy I sold my gold at the all
time low but at least I wasn't being robbed by the bank nor
had I suffered at bad as those who brought as the top of the NASDAQ bubble. But having the freedom to pursue a dream was worth the price I price in gold. Now that I spend it all, I gotten another job and will try to save some more and hopefully get the chance. But even if the gold price takes off without me it was worth it weight and more in gold.
Freedom always is.
So to those who tell you, you can't eat gold, tell them the other things you can't eat.
working-kirk
(6/25/01; 04:36:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 56796)
My thought on War
There has been a lot of talk lately on the forum about war.
In particular it seems a possibiltitiy of war breaking out between either the United States and China or Isreal and The Mid-East.
I don't doubt in either case of the possibility of war breaking out. The leadership of many countries may desire and seek war for many reasons all which comes down to a
means of increasing their power over the citizenry.
Unfortunately all they can see is a quick and easy victory.
And more Unfortunate, the leadership forget what life is like at the end of the war. Maybe you had the experience of starting something you later regreted. The leadership has forgotten the regret at the End of World War I and the horror of trench warface or poison gas or the fall of the Czar that immediately led to the deaths of 25,000,000+ civilians.
Or of World War II and Mechanical warfare starting with the Britzkeit, and Firebombing of Dresden, Toyoko, London, Almost the entire continient of Europe destroyed. The concetration camps where the number of jews murdered were just a small part of the horror and 20 to 28 millions are said to have died (And how come you know about the 6 million but not the other 15 or more million). And at the End of that war The British Empire was essentially no more.
Did I say regret? Maybe I meant revulsion!
In each of those wars, The technology was developed for the next war and that turned into a horror not predicted. It was not predicted because the generals are fighting the last war.
The Huge battle armies and trench warfare of World War I came from the American Civil War.
The mechanical warfare of World War II came from World War I
The guarerra warfare of Vietnam came as a result of partisan fighting in World War Two
With the thought the seeds of last war leads to the horrors of the next, What do I see coming:
ECO-WARFARE
Early today Sunday June 24,2000 60 minutes did a report of Eco Terrorism
and the Ecological Logistic(?) Force
This weapon will be used by all. The United States used it in Vietnam with defoligating the jungle using agent orange.
Saddamn used it against us in setting fire to the oil rigs in Saudi Arabia. Other use it against their own governments and big corportions. Since it has been and will be used by all, I think This will be the biggest horror faced by the average citizen and solider.
Imagine living in a world where the air, the workplace, the water, energy supplies such as oil and all the necessiaties of life are no longer dependable
Eco-warfare will break down into several aspects.
ELECTRONIC WARFARE
This will be the modern day equaliant of gurrera warfare
Let me ask you? How often does your computer crash and how easily? Enough to know if you can cause a major electronic interruption it will bring nasty surprises. Just like the
pre-announce blackout mean looting.
GERM WARFARE
Hoof and mouth disease is running rampant in Europe. The solution in the past has been to kill the animals. Unfortunately this upset the environmentist and Peta who have been know to turn to Eco-Terrorist (see above) They are really upset. And they are trying to get more people upset to join their cause. Question: In the average family: Who can cause more destruction and grief once you make them upset. Your average six to tweleve year old kid. (Teenagers can cause other forms of destruction but it mainly to your wallet and insurance policies) Well you be happy to kwow just let children (including some very big children)are unhappy to know the latest victim of Hoof and mouth is Babe - That cute little pig that starred in the movie. They want to destroy babe. Now you know kids are thinking: "If they want kill Babe, they want to kill me next. That will be a temper tandrum I DON'T want to deal with. I am sure someone is saying: Well if they are going to treat Babe that way, let see how people like getting a version of Hoof and Mouth. On the internet there are ugly rumor of people going to gravesite of people who died during
in influenze of 1912 or so and seeing what really nasty bug they can come up with. Germ Warfare won't be pretty but it will be fair.
Nuclear Warfare
There are about 30 nuclear nations to my knowledge many admitting it and many not. I think in fact many who are not admitting it. For instance, I think Taiwan may be a nucleur power. I have no evidence if this just making logical assumations.
assumations:
1.) China wants Taiwan
2.) Taiwan fears and hate China
3.) If it comes down to the crunch, we will not be able to
protect Taiwan. China has already treatened nucluar attack on Los Angeles and The President cares (or should)
care more about L.A. then Taiwan
4.) Since the United States won't be able to protect Taiwan
They will have to protect themselves.
5.) It is cheap and getting cheaper to make nuclear weaponS, or buy the material including fully armed bombs for a few millions (50-100)
6.) Taiwan as one of the richest trading nations on Earth can afford several weapons and in fact has many individuals who have the money to go out buy a few bombs. So even if the Taiwanian Government isn't doing anything, I don't expect these rich guys to sit around doing nothing while China has plans for robbing and killing Taiwan Capialists.
(Or or least a good short lifetime in a "re-education camp.)
7. You can buy anything
8. Russia need money (...and Mars need women!:-))
9. Everybody ha their little secret so Taiwan is probably thinking: "No one needs to know' Just just Russia is thinking "No one needs to know the all and sundry buyers for their "Nuclear waste."
Ecomonical Warfare
Imagine what happens to the United States if the Mid-East stops accepting dollars (maybe the euro) or more likely in my opinion: accept only gold.
Or If because the the continuing financal crisis in Japan, stop us from importing our debt
Or if because of government regulations it shuts down the entire oil industry like what is happening in California
You know, people do some serious things over money. What is
some people who are unhappy with us interefere with this country making and inflating it money. I don't know what will happen but it won't be a pretty picture.
What eco-warfare means is there will probably be period of hunger, or disruption, of everybody at one point or another becoming a refugee and worse.
What will is be like if any or all these forms of Warfare happens:
Think of living on the poor side of town where there is a major turf war. Only this time it is between the governments
The powere that be may think if thy start a war they will be
safe. Not in a turf war. You know the mob is upset with all these new immigrants - The Nigrians, Costa Ricians, Jamicaians Thailand and Asians and various boat people getting into the drug business. That is because the newcomers are more ruthless. Sure, Jimmy Hoffa may be buried in some building Foundation and sure you muscle in on the garbage business as a way of disposing bodies,That is just "business" In the mob if you're a made man you're a "gentleman" You don't go after a man's family and if you have to whack someone you pay decent money. You don't pay a bunch of junkies a $100 or so knowing a few will mess up and kill innocent poeple but one of your little druggies will
make the hit in as messy a way as possible. The newcomers in the drug scene will go after your family first. Then they will go after you. And thet what scares the mob. These guys don't play by the rules and are too (take your pick) greedy, insane, doped up to work with the rules already there.
In a turf war, the people who start it and the leaders are the first to get hit. You can see example of this in the morgue. You know, growing up in the poor side of town, I often wondered why I was alive and everybody else was dead.
It was not because I was the strongest or quicker or baddest dude or the street. Took me a long time to figure it out but part of the reason I am still alive and they are not is the leaders were too busy trying to kill each other
to even notice me. You can start to see this starting in the mid-east. There seems to be an infinite number of suicide bombers to take out a church one day, a muslim temple the next, a schoolbus full of children the third. With such an infinite supply it is only a matter of time before somebody takes out the leadership no matter how well they are protected.
Usually the powers that be that urge the leaders of a country will start a war stop when enough bloodshed has happened that it appear their skin is on the line, they stop. However, Hitler was the first to break this rule. The first people he threw into his camps and killed were not the jews or gypies or homosexuals despite of the moaning they do over their holocaust loss. No, the first people he went after were those who could oppose his power. Former politicians, business leaders, political parties found themselves at the business end of a firing squad. When the power that be tried to give Hitler his marching orders, he said: "To hell with you" literally and killed them. Those that were smart, fleed the country but more than a few ended up dying under Hitler thank to policies like Roooveselt turning back boatload of immigrants trying to escape.
Today, there are more then enough people with idealogical differences or religious differences or just plain ornary that if they find themselve in the same position of power as Hitler; THe Powers that be will fare badly.
For instance, suppose we do get into a war with China? One question I ask myself is "How do we win?" The only answer I have is nuclear since we don't have the military capabilites to defeat their army. And because of idealogy differences, they won't listen to the power that be that give orders to our president and press. And if we attack them nuclearly we will have to almost wipe them out. If we do that, there will be others who will try to wipe out the United States. These other countries will see us as a mad dog that has gone mad with prejudgices and intolerence. While that might not be true, how easy tdo you this if we destroy China do you believe other countries will find it hard to convince their military if they don't attack the U.S. their country will be next?
Even if we are attacked or managed to hold down the damage, What will this do tto the ecology? I believe damage the fires started Hussein caused far more ecological damage then being let on. For instance, a question you hear is about global warming. How much did the oil fire contribute to this?
Getting back to to subject, if the next wolrd war starts, everybody loses. Including the leaders. So how do you and I survive such a scenerio? I can only suggest in the way I survived growing up. You survive by being invisible and watching the big boys fight. By watching them fight, if you are in a life or death situation, hoeffuly, you've seen enough fights so a sense of what is needed to save your life. One advantage of gold is that is can allow you to become invisible by being anomyonous. Being anomoynous and a lot of luck.
What other regrets or or do I see if a war comes? I see emotional distress.
A lot of people cannot deal with change. But in a time of war there will be a lot of changes. Some of the changes have already happened. For instance, does this government command the loyalty and self-sacifice that made up the generation of World War II? No. Too many espisodes of misuse of trust and abuse of its citizenry by the government. At best, this government can expect apathy and at worse open rebellion.
Another problem is the government and a lot of the citizenry has lost it sense of morals. I am not religious but I understand a moral sense especially the value of life and a sense of justice is important to all. There is none of that. You need that. In some of the street fight I've been in a sense of "I have the right to live!" help kept me alive. The other people had a sense of anger, or despair or sadistism. My sense was right and all the others were wrong. So in many cases it allowed me the strenght to either run away, or out smart them or in rare cases out fight them. True I ended up in the hospital but they were there too and hurt a lot worse. Still I don't get a sense of morality from this government who will rise to defend it? The soldlier and police might do so at the start of a crisis but the moment when they realize because of the chaos it will be better to defend their family instead of this government they will lose that support.
The government won't be able to defend itself. That will be a profound change. I don't know how people will react. It
will happen in this way.
Many People now realize if they are in trouble the people
will not be able to help them. THey either have to protect themselves or avoid the trouble in the first place.
What happens when the government default on it social security and medicare program as they eventually must and realize the government will not financally protect them as promised in their old age.
What happens when we have hyperinflation because the paper money is worthless. Greenspan spent our gold protecting the paper shorts.
What happens when the government has multiple terrorist attacks and can't protect the people within it borders?
There will be a lot of changes and a lot of regrets. The things about regrets is you can't change them. So why tell you all this? Am I trying to scare you? Yes! You see, at this time those things have not happened, instead of regrets they are possibilities. If you are scared understand you scared now. You may not be scared later. Even if you reject all I've said, subconsciously you imagined the worse and subconsciously you figured out a way to deal with them. If may not be much but at least even subconsciously you did more than others. You're given yourself an outside chance.
I doubt any of you have been in a street fight where your life is on the line. So let me tell you about it. In your imagination you may think, I can handle it. I carry a gun or know one of the martial art and so am ready. No you are not. For you do not know where you will experience.
Now I am speaking for myself: the first thing I experence is not fear but surprise. I think what is happening in front of me is not real.
Either the guy about to fight me is putting me on or a movie is being made or he mad at someone else or somehow thing it is not real. It is real and the quicker I realize that, that better my chances of survival.
You see, your survival instinct will tell you long before it gets to a life and death fight. If someone going to fight you most likely they have been following you. If they have been following you, you canb spot them and lose them. You see - the fight you end up avoding is the fight you win.
My survival instinct always signals me by saying: "This can't be for real!"
If you can accept it as real, you get over your initial surprise really fast. Then depending on how much danger you are in and how easily it will be to get away from the conflict your survival instinct will tell you what to do next. By warning you of some of the potential dangers and regrets that will happen in the next war, hopefully I given your subconsious what I've already have. Instead of having an attacker in my face, I can spot a potential attacker a block away and with that distance advantage, I can get away more easiely. Instead of giving you the distance of space, I am by telling you of the possible dangers of war trying to give you the distance of time.
With all this talk of war, here and elsewhere, I believe it is humanity collective survival instinct trying to warn us of what to come. We know we are in danger but have no idea what form it is to come in. Since our collective instinct is warning us, it will give us ways to be saved. However it
is not society that can be saved, only individuals and families and maybe a group or two you might belong too.
Society itself cannot be saved. Societies come and go all the time. We went from a manufactoring/industrial society to an informational society peaceful with some jobs lost but more created.
However societies tend to die due to war or inflation, which we are now under tremendous pressures. My instinct tells me whatever is to come is going to be far worse than anybody suspected by I know I personal and mankind collectiively have survived the worse both man and nature can offer. So what is to come? Only more change.
Have I scared you enough with the coming regrets we will have in the next war. Since this is a gold forum I should bring up the role of gold and silver. With all these possible coming down the road, what good will gold do you?
It will buy your life!
Even in the worse plagues, they have been people more than eager to accept gold. Being metal it can't absorb germs like paper. And silver is even better since it has anti-bacterial quanities. Meanwhile, do you really want to
touch paper money? Do you know where's it been? Take a walk on the poor side of your town. Watch. Eventually you'll see a bum wiping his nose with a dollar because he has no other piece of paper. (You may have to wait til flu season.) And if you not disgusted enough got another story.
When I was writing my third novel about prostitution
"WHERE MOST OF THE SONGS ARE SAD."
I've heard this story of this "Special Doctor" If you are a girl who go out on "dates" you have to watch your health. You have to see a Doctor weekly or more. And since most Doctor would not like to be known for having a clientel of
"Working women" these ladies pay more. One day during an examination, the doctor thought the woman might have had a growth. He poked at it and removed it and it turned out to be a $10.00 bill. Not I wouldn't want to touch that piece of paper but He handed it to the woman who decided to tell all her friends. What made this doctor so special where instead of paying money you made money!
Now if you found yourself in a situation where you had to hide gold inside your body the major advantage would be at least it would be easier to clean
Gold in time of war is a friend and I said I believe our collective instinct is telling us war is coming. I would like to thank the people at USAGOLD for holding this forum.
While my thought are the same as Another trail in it financal depths or Black Blade and his knowledge on energy, I hope it encourage debate and I know there are a lot of lucker on this forum who are afraid to post because of the heavyweight. But I am pretty much ordinary like you and hope you post so I can learn from you as you hopefully learned from me. After all, I didn't let my spelling errors nor the intellect of the other posters stop me from posting.
Thank you.
Turnaround
(06/25/01; 03:16:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 56795)
armchair philosophy
00808428CC
Hi-Hat (06/25/01; 02:35:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 56794)
Turnaround
Try this on for clarity.
There [are] no "sheeple", everyone gets what they want
and dwells in the World that they themselves create.
External reality (the environment) shapes the thoughts of men. It existed before they did. The 'World that they create' is a subjective model of that unknowable reality. No one gets what they want, there is no exit.
"The primary dis-connect that fosters apathy and cynicism
is to escape into the oh so convenient mode of [victimhood]."
Agreed. Seems to be a popular pasttime these days.
"Power in anybody's life can only be attained by each individual taking 100% [responsibility] for their as well as the World circumstance."
Personal responsibity, of course. Carrying the world is a bit more dificult.
Hi-Hat
(06/25/01; 02:35:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 56794)
Turnaround
Try this on for clarity.
There is no "sheeple", everyone gets what they want
and dwells in the World that they themselves create.
The primary dis-connect that fosters apathy and cynicism
is to escape into the oh so convenient mode of victomhood.
Power in anybody's life can only be attained by each individual taking 100% responsability for their as well as the World circumstance.
SteveH
(06/25/01; 02:33:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 56793)
In all things commodity
Max, Peter, Journeyman
Enabler...continued...
I believe the event or action may be something as per below:
1st Gold default circa early 30's
2nd Gold default circa early 70's
US dollar now valued by a basket of currencies
Oil becomes the defacto standard of value to the dollar.
North Sea oil supply curtails rising oil prices circa 70's, 80's, and maybe 90's
Jamaica Accords established a free-market in gold forcing its trade for debt of countries to the background of monetary policy removing such from public scrutiny
Above creates necessity to develop US monetary practice of constantly devaluing basket of goods and commodities such that the dollar rises against them. Easy to do through new future markets 80's, 90's
Creation of money market funds (not sure which year)
Gulf War precipitates or becomes catalyst trade deficit problems and may be large contributing enabling event to US financial issues
US's increasing appetite for oil and its dependence on others for it
Clinton administration places key democrats into watchdog positions whose agenda's are not purely watchdog
Certain "look-the-other way" policies set opening door for GSE credit creation and Wall-street excesses and irrational exuberance
Repeal of laws put in place (Glas-Stiegal(sp?) after last depression.
Bankruptcy law reform
US-Japanese Rubin policy of Yen Carry
Gold-carry
Asian Financial crisis
Continuing need to hold basket of commodities lower through futures markets that are now paper supply driven rather than commodity driven (watchdog problem).
Increasing use of derivatives and lack of watchdog and regulation
International corporations become more powerful than some countries
Ownership of the press into fewer and fewer corporate hands and lack of investigative reporting
Take your pick but somewhere in there is an enabler or two that got us into this fine mess we seem headed for.
Turnaround
(06/25/01; 01:30:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 56792)
Peter Asher- thank you for the clarity
A generalization is in order-
Peter Asher (6/25/01; 00:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 56789)
Most of [those people are] like us trying to survive in an insane world.. They have no more control of their alleged leaders than we do and are just as subject to their media and political spin as our sheeple are.
Black Blade
(6/25/01; 00:36:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 56791)
RE: Peter Asher
I see no use in the US supporting any side in these conflicts. They will never accept peace as far as I can tell. Perhaps mutual destruction is necessary so that the rest of the world can struggle for lasting peace. On the other hand you may have also missed the sarcasm of my post. The US does not have a constitutional responsibility to police the affairs of the world's warring factions. As I said, let them sort out their differences on their own and maybe in another 3000 years they may come to an understanding leading to peace, if they don't exterminate each other first.
- Black Blade
Golden Dreams All!
SHIFTY
(6/25/01; 00:25:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 56790)
Spot "That rascal"
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Just when you thought Spot was asleep for the night.
Get-em! Boy
:-)
Peter Asher
(6/25/01; 00:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 56789)
@ Journeyman, JMB, Black Blade, tedw, auspec US Army and All posters and lurkers.
For a group that expounds on the merits of our Constitution, some of you seem to have ‘lost it’ this evening.
Most of those Palestinians and Israelis are people like us trying to survive in an insane world.. The main difference is the degree of conflagration on their streets and sidewalks. They have no more control of their alleged leaders than we do and are just as subject to their media and political spin as our sheeple are.
The essence of prejudice is judging any SINGLE individual by the actions of others of the same race, creed or color. Even individuals having the same specific religious belief can engage in very different applications of that to the environment around them.
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