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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/25/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Netking (11/25/01; 23:35:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 65885) Silver - TA Short term Ag outlook. . . . . Look at the next three weeks especially December 1-6th as potential 'key time frame'. Gold could have just set a low. The same is true of Silver. This is not to say that they have, or that other indicators have yet corroborated this. It is merely to make clear that we have just entered a powerful convergence of cycles thatextends into December and which is expected to mark a very important low in both metals.The 114--115 week cycle has governed Silver since 1991. This time frame has identified the span between major lows, major highs and waves from high to low or low to high… for a decade. The last major low in Silver arrived 115 weeks from its preceding high, which culminated a 114-week advance- a total of 229 weeks low-low. Since that low (7/97) Silver formed a contracting triangle (rally, decline, and rally with lower peaks and higher troughs) and provided a secondary peak 115 weeks later - in September 1999. 114--115 weeks from that peak - and 229 weeks from the major low of 7/97 - and the 3-year anniversary of the 12/98 intervening low - all converge in the next 3 weeks. The same time frame represents wave equivalency between the 3 declines of 2001. As such, it is the perfect time for a final low in Silver & a higher low in Gold. Belgian (11/25/01; 23:05:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65884) @ Waverider # 65865 Ideologies ? Sorry, but no ideologies for me ! Never believed in any !My point (up until now) is that *Gold*, has been riding waves ever since it was discovered (5.000 yrs ago-?)I'm only interested, pragmatically, in the next wave to come. Thanks to the archives of this precious site, I was able to study the Gold-Waves of the past 30 years (since 1971). The POG pattern of this 30 yrs chart is speaking to my imagination, with undiscribable strength ! It is an invitation for boarding and riding a coming *Gigantic* wave.This very strong intuition needed some heavy fundamentals to give it substance. All arguments are to be weighed on the balance. And certainly not for the sake of any ideology.I was very lucky, and made money with goldmine-speculation in the past 20 years. It was a shock, when TG first mentionned the risks of holding (even trading) goldmine-paper ! After intense study of his argumentations...the probability that he is right...is *very* high ! This approach has nothing to do with a Gold ideology.We hear daily stories of people who's lives are completely destroyed, by *PAPER*-drama's ! It is only the beginning.The denial of the free fall is still in place and the Golden parachute, will only open "fully" at almost ground zero ! Than that 30 year POG pattern, will look almost perfect for having that Gigantic coming Gold-wave. A confirmation of the fundamentals that were accumulating.Not an ideology, but a theory with high probability and a very, very low risk to possible high rewards, with Physical Gold in Possession, at present obscene valuations.If you should have the bad luck to miss, capitalizing, on the 3 to 4 times, leverage of mine-shares to POG (past performances), you might end up with nothing and lost the opportunity of having missed the "Physical" rewards, here discribed. What kind of wave are you intending to ride, Sir ? The small one or the big one. The ones we have known for the past 30 years or a new one ? And if you don't believe (?) in that Gigantic Gold wave...then what will bring the future for Gold ?A long time ago, I raised the question, what happens with a Gold-Valuation at thousands of dollars ? Not a single answer. It seems impossible to paint a picture of how things would look like with such a dramatic situation.I have to hear the first argument *why*, a very high (many thousands) valuation of Gold is impossible ! As if this probability is completely excluded ! No Gold dot.com bomb.Gold is never to go backing paper again ! This didn't work !Gold must and shall de-paperize itself and will be used as elite troop to guard the future paper mis-managements.That is a plan on a theory and not an ideology. To be materialized sooner or later. Who wants to miss that ? Black Blade (11/25/01; 22:56:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 65883) AngloGold to challenge Newmont's Normandy bid http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011126/syboo6150_1.html Snippit:SYDNEY, Nov 25 (Reuters) - AngloGold Ltd said on Monday it will initiate action at the Australian Takeovers Panel to challenge aspects of a counter offer for Normandy Mining Ltd launched by Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) earlier this month. U.S.-based Newmont topped AngloGold's takeover offer for Australia's largest gold mining house.``AngloGold considers that Newmont's offer is a high risk proposition for Normandy shareholders,'' AngloGold's chief financial officer Jonathan Best said in a statement. Black Blade: But AngloGold's extreme exposure risk to margin calls with regard to a rising POG would devastate investors. Newmont clearly has the better offer without the extreme exposure. Horatio (11/25/01; 22:00:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65882) Sorry Slip of the finger double post Horatio (11/25/01; 21:58:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65881) Deep storage gold I believe the governments change of definition from custodial gold to deep storage gold means... THEY ! are the buyers of gold for future delivery .How better to hedge thier bets,think about this.They print fiat currency and use it to buy gold for future delivery.It costs them 4 cents to print Dollars.That is one definition of "deep storage gold".They may be selling spot gold to drive the price down,masking inflation saving them billions in colas.(cost of living adjustments.Then they hedge this by buying gold for future delivery from the miners.The books still balance in theory ,the accounts still show the US has gold ,but the definition changes from gold in fort knox or Westpoint to custodial gold to deep storage gold.The government will own the gold mines or at least a good portion of thier production.This will enable them to back a "new dollar" with gold in case of a collapse in the Dollar.This is a DEflationary policy.They could issue 1 new dollar for 10 old dollars if its backed by gold.This implys a $3000 pre collapse gold price.How do you protect yourself with a $3000 gold price followed by a currency collapse or recall ?I don't know,my inclination would be to try to sell before the collapse and buy tangable assets.Suggestions would be welcome.... Greenspan wrote years ago of being in favor of gold backed currency but he lacked the trading skill of Rubin to effect it.Just as pools and speculators hired traders in the 20's to run stocks (its a special skill requiring deception and secrecy) I believe Robert Ruben was responsible for this stratgey given his background as a trader, and accounts for the government still taking advice from him even after his tenure as Treas. Sec was over.I noticed Sec O'neill backtracked on his comments of a market based dollar policy soon after he made them .He then made a very strong point of being in favor of strong dollar policy .Rubin is running the show.IMHO Horatio (11/25/01; 21:58:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 65880) Deep storage gold I believe the governments change of definition from custodial gold to deep storage gold means... THEY ! are the buyers of gold for future delivery .How better to hedge thier bets,think about this.They print fiat currency and use it to buy gold for future delivery.It costs them 4 cents to print Dollars.That is one definition of "deep storage gold".They may be selling spot gold to drive the price down,masking inflation saving them billions in colas.(cost of living adjustments.Then they hedge this by buying gold for future delivery from the miners.The books still balance in theory ,the accounts still show the US has gold ,but the definition changes from gold in fort knox or Westpoint to custodial gold to deep storage gold.The government will own the gold mines or at least a good portion of thier production.This will enable them to back a "new dollar" with gold in case of a collapse in the Dollar.This is a DEflationary policy.They could issue 1 new dollar for 10 old dollars if its backed by gold.This implys a $3000 pre collapse gold price.How do you protect yourself with a $3000 gold price followed by a currency collapse or recall ?I don't know,my inclination would be to try to sell before the collapse and buy tangable assets.Suggestions would be welcome.... Greenspan wrote years ago of being in favor of gold backed currency but he lacked the trading skill of Rubin to effect it.Just as pools and speculators hired traders in the 20's to run stocks (its a special skill requiring deception and secrecy) I believe Robert Ruben was responsible for this stratgey given his background as a trader, and accounts for the government still taking advice from him even after his tenure as Treas. Sec was over.I noticed Sec O'neill backtracked on his comments of a market based dollar policy soon after he made them .He then made a very strong point of being in favor of strong dollar policy .Rubin is running the show.IMHO tg (11/25/01; 21:54:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65879) Horatio Sometimes, governments have no choice. Economic cycles play their own tune, governments try to adjust and play catch up.Deflation is the set course.There is too much debt and too much leverage. The Fed is only playing catchup with its money creation in order to fill in the black holes created by debt collapse. Canuck (11/25/01; 21:09:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65878) Watch the long rates! Excellent notes, posts and links today with reference to Enron and the bond market.No wonder the 'pros' move to the bond market, the stock market is for whining, crooked babies. This is an argument to be made that the SM is not liquid enough, that is to say a bunch of bandits can affect its direction.This is where the bond market and currency markets come into play. We know the commodity markets are ultra-crooked and much the same for the SM. Let's keep an eye open on the 'long rates'.The best line I heard today was "...the bond market is simply not co-operating with the Treasuries." Canuck. darkhorse (11/25/01; 20:57:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 65877) Horatio "Its my observation that in the U.S.,the government chose DEflation in the 30's and the result was the government didn't collapse ,quite the contrary ,the people demanded more government." Ya gotta remember, that was a TOTALLY different kind of people/generation. That generation was the "...I believe in the government, I don't believe they'd do ANYthing against me..." or "...the government is here for US...". It's not the same world it was 25 years ago, let alone 50-75 years ago. Watch your back, no one else will! Netking (11/25/01; 20:56:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 65876) Waverider Waverider(65868)How about (for your PhD thesis) "How health care and silver could intersect" . . . . that would NOT be pushing it . . . Gigabytes on this topic alone & amazing once you start digging around. - Cheers Netking uponroof (11/25/01; 20:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65875) Horatio http://www.luskinreport.com/luskin/archive/20011115luskin.htm Thanks for that lessor of two evils rationale. Easier for gummints to rule during 'de' rather than 'in'. Much easier for politicians to spin lower prices, despite lower wages being part of the deal. Perfect for CNBC and their deceptive practices also. Thanks again. More and more coming out on deflation. Our friend Luskin has devoted his last two weekly reports to it. Horatio (11/25/01; 20:30:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65874) Deflation To those that think deflation is unthinkable and the fed will not consider it.I say this..it did so before in the 30's and what makes you think they won't do it again.You presume they were stupid then and now know better.I presume they had no choice.I have read many books written in the 30's ,they were not stuped.Thier options were limited.Once they proceed down the path of Fiat, the outcome is predictable just as thier options are limited.The underlying premise is some observations I have made in history.Governments that have chosen inflation, for example the Roman Empire lost thier support of the people because of the same reasons we see today.A heavy handed government on taxes,corruption in the political system.Those that give reelection money get thier way on legislation.Another example is Germany,after the hyper- inflation of the 20's a strong man was brought to power and the first thing he did was suspend individual rights for the "good "of the country.People voted for him ,there was a real election,he promised them security in return for accepting loss of individual rights.His name was Hitler. The outcome of inflation is governments get destroyed.They get replaced by Dictators ,Emperiors,or a collapse Russian style.Its my observation that in the U.S.,the government chose DEflation in the 30's and the result was the government didn't collapse ,quite the contrary ,the people demanded more government.The government should "do something" take over anything that they can in order to "save it".This continues to this day and what the final outcome will be ,I don't know,I suspect the outcome may be the same except we have chosen a diferent way to get to the same destination. There is no free lunch. This is one reason Greenspan is always fighting IN flation even in the current deflation.He knows the outcome of each and doesen't want a collapse of the U.S. government.The outcome will be the second dark ages full of small fifdoms and warlords. Yes,deflation may be our destination. uponroof (11/25/01; 20:20:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65873) The 'free market' bug has bitten the Chinese http://search.chinadaily.com.cn/news/2001-11-26/45331.html China's 'free gold market'....soon to be joined by oil futures traders? Tommorrow the Chinese free gold market has their 'soft opening'. A trial run of sorts. First, 'free' pertains to three main categories: financial members such as the commercial banks, comprehensive members that could do trading business for themselves and be agents for other enterprises, and single members that are only allowed to trade. As of yet no producers will participate. China has over 1200 small scale gold mines which produce around 175 tonnes per year, fourth largest producer in the world. One gets the impression that there are a half million Chinese, running all over the continent, digging small claim gold with picks and shovels, then carrying it off on the backs of donkeys to gummint buying houses (to sell for pennies of course). This may eventually change, but for now the Chinese aren't talking. Do they really think they can force producers to sell cheap when their own free market is selling for more? I think China is about to get a rude capitalistic awakening. Greed is a powerful force especially when your friends and neighbors are paying a premium. Producers will be sorely tempted to sell 'under the table' and through other avenues. If so, expect some trouble in the gold industry. What can China do? Enforce a double standard? What if China's consumption for gold quadruples from 200 to 800 tonnes per year? India, and their gold jewellery culture is currently the world leader at 855 tonnes. Where is this 600 tonnes going to come from? Domestic producers will be screaming to sell at fair market values.Does the gold cartel infiltrate this exchange? Is a gold futures market being opened also? Any info would be appreciated. The link above details the desire for opening the oil futures market! Watch out. China is coming. Despite their holding of dollars, western politics just doesn't wash. Can't see any cozy deals being made with this giant. In gold or oil. Should be interesting. Black Blade (11/25/01; 20:09:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65872) U.S. Retailers Brace for Holiday Season http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011125/business_economy_mood_retail_dc_1.html Snippit:CHICAGO (Reuters) - Grace Tsao-Wu cringed at the image a weekend merchandise markdown might give her high-end housewares store. But the owner of Tabula Tua in Chicago's upscale Lincoln Park neighborhood said she was forced to cut prices by 15 percent earlier this month to drum up business. The storewide sale was her second in 2001, the first year Tsao-Wu has discounted products since opening in 1994. ``I've never done this kind of thing before ... and it pained me to do it,'' she said. ``But I felt like I needed a little boost. I thought I really needed to remind people to come see us in December.''Tsao-Wu and other independent retailers who set up shop during the unprecedented economic boom of the last decade have found themselves in uncharted territory. For the first time, they are confronted with the prospect of a recession, and consumers who just are not in the mood to buy. Sales at many U.S. retailers were slower than in previous years, even before the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon that rocked the nation and rattled consumers. Consumer confidence tumbled to 85.5 in October from 97.0 in September and 114.0 in August. At a time when people are nervous about job security, down about dwindling financial portfolios and stressed about global political unrest, merchants on Chicago's downtown Jewelers' Row hope shoppers will turn to dazzling diamonds and glittering gems to lift their spirits. ``We sell happiness and we sell romance, and those are two things that people still want,'' said Jerrold Rosenwasser, owner of New York Jewelers in downtown Chicago. With sale signs dotting storefronts in an effort to lure shoppers to window jewelry displays, Rosenwasser admitted that the retail climate had changed. Still, he predicted sales this holiday season would be at least as strong as last year. ``The mood certainly is different,'' he said. ``You go through rough times, and you go through good times. We're trying to stay upbeat.''No matter how desperately people want things to cheer them up this holiday season, they will probably turn to items less expensive than jewelry, said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Consulting Group. ``Jewelry is a high-ticket item,'' Barnard said. ``There's no question that people who are losing their jobs, or who are afraid of losing them, will rein in their expenditures. They are enjoying luxury, but luxury at a lower price.''Black Blade: Now that the post Thanksgiving Day rush is about over, the question is will it be sustained through to Christmas or will it die out as people worry about jobs and investments? As far as the WGC jewelry marketing campaign is concerned, they have their work cut out for them. We live in "Interesting Times." Then again a bit of bullion always makes for a good Christmas gift in uncertain times. ROSEBUD99 (11/25/01; 19:58:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65871) Gold cocktail napkin calculations. Sent this to a friend. My way of looking at things.Physical gold= lets look at it this way. How much can it fall in worst case, 10% 15% at worst? And it can't stay in the 240's, as mines can't produce at that price. Only if central banks keep selling can the price stay down there. Lets see, the U.S. has 8000 tons which= 64 billion dollars at 250 per. Gee M3 increased 44 billion last week, up 82 billion in 2 weeks. M3 growth on a y/y basis was 13% for oct or 912 billon. nov is already up to 14% or 979 billon over nov 2000. read those #'s again and compair to the gold total. Lets see 979 billion= 113,000 tons. I don't think there is that much free gold available. Or better yet many mutual funds have enough assets to buy ALL of the US gold. Think about that! Now stocks can lose 10-15% overnight. How much % has that telecom or tech stock or Enron lost since summer??? You see what I'm saying. The only way (IMHO) one can lose(only 10-15%) with gold is short term and if the central banks keep selling more and more. And sooner or later they WILL run out. Can't print the stuff like paper. NOW THOW IN EVEN PART OF THE STUFF PRIVATEER AND TRAIL GUIDE TALK ABOUT AND WOW, KATIE BAR THE DOOR, WHERE CAN I BUY MORE PHYSICAL. It's safe, at the bottom, and skies the limit. Take your pick. Heck take 2 reasons. 3 reasons and I'm in hog heaven. Black Blade (11/25/01; 19:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 65870) Holiday Shoppers Are There but Maybe Not Profits http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011125/business_retail_weekend_dc_1.html Snippit:NEW YORK (Reuters) - The bustle of holiday shoppers and the clanging of cash registers during the post-Thanksgiving weekend may well point to more sales, but the proliferation of discounts mean those sales may translate to a disappointing bottom line. Shoppers flocked to malls and other shopping centers in the days after Thanksgiving in a bid to snap up holiday bargains. In particular, they flocked to stores that featured deep discounts of the type often seen after the holiday rush is over.Black Blade: This is not promising. The economy is sliding off into the abyss and even though sales may be up, the profit picture is dismal. The Trolls on Wall Street are sure to trumpet the higher sales while declining to discuss the "Grim" profit picture. This recession is deepening and yet the Pimps and Trolls of Wall Street are talking of yet another market bottom. Look for a sharp increase in retail bankruptcies after the new year, especially the dot.com retailers that have burned through their cash and credit lines and who placed all their hope on the holiday season. BR549 (11/25/01; 19:00:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 65869) Maybe the declining POG has to do with world deflation There are many knowing economists, both amateur and professional, that argue that the world economy is in a deflationary spiral. There are two basic theories—one that decreased money supply is deflationary and the other is that the excess capacity in the world is not being absorbed by consumers and therefore prices are falling as a result. If the mere printing of money by the ECB's, BOJ, and Fed could reverse deflationary tendency's, then inflation would certainly be the result. But if one looks at Japan as the modern day Mecca for deflation, then it can be argued that money supply increases are not working in preventing the decline of prices. Look at American automobile and other world manufacturers attempting to give their products away in the short-term by delaying the consumer having to pay for them with 0 interest rate deferred loans. Still prices continue to decline for everything from fuel to retail prices for everyday items. The CPI and PPI indexes over the last year, do not indicate anything any differently. So I suggest that the POG and POSilver have to do with world deflation pressures (maybe with a little manipulation thrown in here and there).BR549 Waverider (11/25/01; 18:46:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65868) Rich Thanks Rich - enlighten me as to how health care and gold could intersect and I'd have a topic for my PhD thesis - that might be pushing it abit though! (Smile)Waverider Zenidea (11/25/01; 18:28:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65867) Intuitive hunches on China Personaly I would venture to suggest that even the Chinese government has little or no idea how much Gold is in this vast land simply by virtue of the fact that the desires of its 2 billion odd people to own it has been thwarted and by that and mankinds very nature Gold has been flowing intoand hoarded in China in vast quantities accross the boardersof Hong Kong , Taiwan and other such situate neighbours for eons. It does not take much through observation to see this happening and if one has ever frequented the nightmare at least at the HK/China boarder customs has due the incredible number of people flowing through the turnstyles there its even less difficult to imagine 99% of it getting through.Just like the old gold rush days in Aussie and America; whatwas actually found and what has actually been declared and recorded are probably two entirely different matters; and couple that with the legal/business shenanigans that goes on I wouldnt be surprised if the Chinese goverment itself (dispite the WTO) would like to know whats hidden in the peoples closets.Whatever the GDP, There is one other significant aspect I think that needs bear mention. The Chinese are coming in from a low base and these industrious people are a nation with a mindset for saving in preference to credit. Worth watching ?. Indeedy ! :) R Powell (11/25/01; 18:23:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 65866) Waverider I would submit that the value of gold (and silver) is determined by many factors. As you say, there are geopolitical power forces (intervention or manipulation) along with technical analysis theories which can, in the short term, move market prices. Supply and demand should affect price and currency exchange rates always are a consideration. Mining stock prices may be early indications of future price moves or may actually move change the price. Hedging by miners and speculators must also be considered. Outright pools or attempted corners are market players as well as investor sentiment not only for gold but for stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. Gold and the POG is one complex, complicated entity. As such, I don't think there are too many economic subjects that do not pertain to precious metals. Some more than others perhaps but then again, CPM has often had, as the prime subject of past contests, what event or events will become the major influences in the gold market. Gold is, despite the denial of some, influenced by the politics and economic occurances of the entire world. I don't think that you have strayed off subject but, this is just one man's opinion. Thanks for your thoughts. Rich Waverider (11/25/01; 17:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 65865) Ideologies: Belgium/Invisible/Canuck It seems to me in the short time that I have participated on this forum that most (maybe all) subscribe to an "ideology" of gold as reflected in the value of gold ownership as the ultimate form of wealth, and a new financial role of gold in the future. Many are also interested in the investment nature of gold in the form of shares but I don't see this as incongruent with the basic ideology. Decisions on whether one participates in the investment/speculation game depend on one's financial position, tolerance for risk and personal preferences. However it doesn't relegate or dismiss the ideology that physical gold is the ultimate wealth (in the worldly sense). Once physical gold is purchased there are no risks, no variables, no practical factors to consider other than where does one house it (and it's that security which allows us to sleep at night). The geopolitical power forces that affect it's relative value and role in the financial arena (no small topic) are incentives to purchase more. I see your point Belgium that discussions re shares, etc. need occur within this context. I appreciate your thoughts and reminder regarding the "essence" of the forum. Having said all this, I think some may disagree with me because ideologies are often relative, and there always exists two ends of the continuum. Cheers,Waverider R Powell (11/25/01; 17:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65864) tedw Silver demand in a down economy You are probably correct that there will be less demand for the industrial use of silver in recessionary times. Industrial use amounts to about 40% of useage. However, the same economic slowdown has driven the prices of zinc, copper, lead and other base metals down to the point that mining production cuts are now occuring. This will also cut the supply of silver as about 77% of supply enters the market as by-product silver from these non-primarily silver producers. The question then becomes one of how much less industrial demand as compared to how much less production will happen? I've been pondering the same question and thinking of buying a Dec. 2002 375 put option with the idea that if POS does fall to that level, I could then go long a futures position without the downside risk (covered by the put). I've also hold coins and call options. David Morgan has also addressed your question and thinks that supply cuts might even more than offset industrial demand loses. The technical analysts have warned that a break below the $3.90 level might see a freefall in POS down to the $3.50 level as you mentioned. I'd rather that it just spike upward but neither silver nor gold have responded to market fundamentals or my wishes for many years. TA and shenanigans have been the ruling forces. Rich Chris Powell (11/25/01; 17:10:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 65863) All Australia hears GATA chairman http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/927 GATA Chairman Bill Murphy was interviewed livefor about five minutes Saturday on a national radio broadcast in Australia.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com megatron (11/25/01; 16:37:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 65862) Zinc connection Anymore base metal mines closing should bolster the price under silver as that pushes down on the supply side of the equation. Ironically the deeper the depression the shorter the supply of silver entering the market from mines becomes.This grossly increases the chance of a blast off in price/short covering etc. This is where the socialist decisions made in Ottawa and Washington to fake down commodities are really going to blow up in thier faces one day. The name of my new book is going to be called "Just make it all go away!(With someone eles's money)The story of Canada. Galearis (11/25/01; 16:07:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 65861) @ tedw re silver well fundamentally speaking.... The problem with tracking price with the T.A.s and buying accordingly is just that. The pricing mechanism doesn't factor in the supply end in the model. That by definition is a failed pricing mechanism. Works fine with..... (excuse) on paper.regards,G. Galearis (11/25/01; 15:58:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 65860) @ darkhorse, your 65854 Ah, the clink of silver in those young pockets By my reckonning you are only a generation and a bit behind me in age (smile), and were lucky to have a paper route. I got .50 per week allowance at your age then! Silver notwithstanding (sic). If I remember correctly in 1967 we (Canada) "defaulted" on our metal currency so those last issues of commemorative dollars, halfs, quarters and dimes ran .8 OR .5 silver (impossible to tell which one held in hand), whereas in prior years it was all 800 silver. Around this time silver was at approx. $1.39/troy ounce (at .6 oz silver per each dollar) so this was the reason for the shift away from the precious metal. People began hoarding them! It is also an interesting study in inflation too as that $1.39 in 1967 bought 6 times more than it does now. So in inflation adjusted terms silver in 1967 was $8.34/oz in 2000 dollars, and the silver in the dollar was worth about $5 (inflation adjusted value) purchasing power. (Oddly enough, those coins sell retail for on average $6 today, wholesale, about $4; so one can see that they have served somewhat as a hedge - if you are in the coin business - and even in these deplorable days of commodity bears. They will likely do MUCH better in the years ahead!But at least you learned early the value of a dollar on your paper route. Most of our respective populations will learn a more painful lesson in the coming years. And I also predict that ranks of gold bugs and silver bugs will be swelling soon too. (smile)Regards,G. tedw (11/25/01; 15:56:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 65859) silver Ive been giving some thought to the silver situation. Silver has looked attractive to me as it is at multi-year lows at slightly over $4.00 an ounce. I seem to see an inconsistency in many of the bullish analysts for silver (Chapman, Butler et al). Although there appears to be a deficit between supply and demand, and most silver mining companies are unprofitable, I dont think it necessarily means a higher silver price on the near horizon. . Many of these same analysts are predicting a severe recession or depression and judging by lay-offs, housing starts, etc. this does seem to be the case. Since silver is an industrial metal, common sense would seem to indicate a weakening economy would mean weaking demand for silver, and an accordingly lower silver price. So perhaps we will see $3.50 silver again,or even lower. BR549 (11/25/01; 15:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 65858) GAAP has a new standard for controlling the manipulators called FAS 133 The standard was put into effect over a year ago but the "risk managers", a.k.a. corporate derivative manipulators are fighting it with their every breath. In place for just over a year now, "FAS 133 requires companies to mark derivatives positions to market and show any change in value in the profit-and-loss statement, unless the derivatives can be shown to be an effective hedge for an underlying exposure." The net effect of this attempt to show investors a "real" valuation on financial statements rather than the BS pro forma that the investor usually receives. A requirement by the SEC for all regulated corporations to report on a FAS 133 basis would be a net decline in the use of derivatives by the hedgers. The problem that all investors have now with Enron and others, is there is not a common accounting standard that shows actual dollar exposure of the risk positions that derivatives expose the assets of their manipulating host corporations in a dollar amount. This so called "hedge accounting" is a worldwide problem particularly when valuing volatile hedge positions for option writers such as Enron. The solution is to provide investors with "mark-to-market" valuations for hedged positions that allow investors to catch an Enron type $1.2BB "accounting error" occuring over 5 years before the loss devalues the market price of the underlying equity (or bond) some 80% as has happened with Enron. The greatest exposure for investors comes via swaps for unlike risks such as a commodity swapped for interest rate or currency declines. Another example might be for Gold mining stocks that swap their forward sales for operating capital to be repaid in actual Gold at some future date to expose their POG hedge amount. The SEC is not very efficient at requiring companies to produce actual FAS 133 information on a current and timely basis to stockholders because of the so-called "cost" for producing the information. One would think for instance, that if a Gold mine was going to forward sell its in the ground assets for the sake of meeting current cash flow needs to continue mining operations, that these justifications for making derivative based decisions such as the expected gain (or possible loss) to be realized by writing the option, would be readily available BEFORE the decision to issue a derivative is made. If so, then the cost for transposing this information into a FAS 133 accounting standard would be relatively inexpensive. The problem is that the hedgers do not plan (or evaluate) their derivative decisions and therefore do not themselves know the amount of risk that they are putting their assets up for grabs are. If the SEC had required Enron to report on a curent FAS 133 basis, then Enron stockholders would not be in the mess that they are in now and of Enron being the first large derivative domino to fall. There is a cure for the problem---—but not if the world's CFO's and other insiders fight the solution with PR and pro forma jabs at the SEC and inquiring stockholders. I wish the class action lawsuits against Enron much success. I also encourage the shysters to go after the personal assets of the insiders at Enron. The DEA does much the same against drug dealer's personal assets who accumulate personal assets as a result of their crimes. When the ex-President of Enron is offered $60MM of severance (which he declined), then the stockholders should reclaim as much of their personal losses as they can. Either that, or expose the equity scam of investing in stocks for what it really is—not an investment but a rip off of the little guy's pension funds, 401K's, and other CNBC types of "paper" scams.BR549 The CoinGuy (11/25/01; 14:44:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65857) BB, Enron and all... Black Blade,Just read that Enron article with interest. Had to sit and listen to friends at a local restaurant cry over their losses. Enron has a corporate building here in Omaha, and it looks as though, this is going to be another LVLT type story. None of the people I talked to that worked for the company seem to diversify. It's one sad story after another. Locally, first was Lucent, then LVLT, and now Enron. The saga continues, and for many its a sad story of a lack of diversification. I really hate to say this because friends, as well as couple of relatives are involved, but it looks as though there was a strong factor among each story I've heard - greed and ignorance. All: Just returned from a resting vacation, and it looks as though those short have taken a beating in the market. It doesn't look as though this is anything but a Bear Market rally to me, although these can have violent swings to the upside, I'm holding that small diversification, and am adding to those positions this week. This run on my little charts is looking tired. Who knows...The best diversify - Physical GoldThe (Physical) Coin Guy Black Blade (11/25/01; 14:36:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 65856) Back to irrational exuberance? Warning, this may be another sucker's rally http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=SuperStar+Funds&siteid=mktw Snippit:LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- Let the games begin! The guessing games, that is. With U.S. stocks making a comeback, pundits are tripping over themselves with predictions that would play better on a game show. "A new bull market has started," U.S. News & World Report says. A USA Today headline: "Bear is caged." The reality is that the mysterious market can't even figure out tomorrow's news, let alone next summer's. And yet Wall Street and Main Street are right back in the 1990s insanity. "What gives us shivers," says Barron's curmudgeon Alan Abelson, "is that the public offers every appearance of forgiving and forgetting and once more embracing that dear and seemingly departed irrational exuberance."But lest you forget, since the crash of 2000, we've had three prior suckers rallies, with Wall Street gurus pronouncing the start of a new bull market. And in each case, the Nasdaq, for example, rose between 24 and 41 percent, only to collapse again. So much for market timing. Amid all the guessing throughout these sucker rallies the past 20 months, the Nasdaq continued falling, losing more than 60 percent.Black Blade: Stock valuations are grossly overvalued. As corporate earnings reports continue to reveal more bad news and stock prices continue to rise, these valuations get to even more absurd levels. Even after the massive Nasdaq losses, the market is more overvalued than it was at the beginning of the current recession in March 2000. That is because current and future earnings forecasts are collapsing faster than stock prices. Now it is much worse with rising stocks prices without a corresponding rise in earnings. This house of cards will eventually collapse and we will hear more sob stories from those who did not take personal responsibility and protect themselves with portfolio insurance. It will get very ugly. Of course the Pimps and Trolls of Wall Street and the financial media bear some of the blame for perpetuating the myth of the "forever rising market." This becomes especially dangerous in view of a growing mountain consumer and corporate debt. So far this market crash has taken out $5 Trillion out of investors accounts - that's money gone - "Gone to Money Heaven." This crash has devastated the savings of up to half of people's life savings. That is a big chunk of changes lost considering that 45.7 million baby boomers will be retiring over the next 5 years. The FED sees the danger ahead as they have been aggressively cutting interest rates at a record pace (10 times!). The FED lowered interest rates only 8 times before and during the Great Depression. It did not work. The FED lowered interest rates 7 times during the 1973-1975 recession. It did not work. And it won't work this time either. It will get much worse if the markets revert back to the historical mean. That is to be in line with historical valuations, the Nasdaq should be at about 700, the S&P at 425, and the DOW below 5000. I am afraid that we are about to see a lot more pain ahead. Heck I did not even begin to talk about surge in bad loans and rising bankers debt. In 1998 US banks held about $27 Trillion in derivatives contracts (as reported here and other forums). Today, the derivative contracts are exposed to the tune of more than $40 Trillion according to the US General Accounting Office (GAO). Aw shucks, that's only 4 times the gross domestic product of the US. The GAO refers to these massive derivatives as "system risk." And that is just the banks - oops! We don't want to go there. Anyway you get the picture. Sorry for going on this extended rant, but as I have been saying - "look out for number one!" Get out of debt now, get a supply of dry goods and food stuffs, get several months of cash to cover expenses, get your investment portfolios insured with hard assets like Gold and Silver, be very picky-selective with your investments (in other words get defensive), and hang on for the "whip-saw" ride. Beware - I am sure that the Pimps, Trolls, and Pied Pipers of Wall Street will be out in force to sing their siren songs. Black Blade (11/25/01; 13:46:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65855) Enron Workers Sue as Savings Evaporate http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011125/business_utilities_enron_employees_dc_1.html Snippit:HOUSTON (Reuters) - After climbing utility poles in all kinds of weather for 35 years, Roy Rinard was hoping to retire in a few years, but that was before the collapse in Enron Corp.'s (NYSE:ENE) stock price devoured his retirement savings. ``I'm basically wiped out,'' said Rinard, 54, who works for Portland General Electric, an Oregon utility company acquired by the Houston-based energy trading giant in 1997. ``I'm right back to ground zero and I'll have to go on working as long as I can,'' said Rinard, who suffers from arthritis and a lung condition that leaves him short of breath.Encouraged by Enron's then-strong performance and the company's bullish view of its future prospects, Rinard moved all of the money invested in his 401(k) retirement account into Enron stock earlier this year. But it proved to be a costly decision as the value of his account fell from $470,000 a year ago to around $40,000 today. Rinard now hopes a lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Houston will recover at least some of his money.The suit, filed on behalf of Enron employees by Seattle-based law firm Hagens Berman, alleges that Enron breached its fiduciary duty by encouraging its employees to invest heavily in Enron stock without warning them of the risks of doing so.Black Blade: The Enron saga continues. Maybe the Enron employees should "invest and hold for the long-term." It is difficult to feel sorry for people like this who don't take some responsibility and diversify. What is described was simply a focused speculation with their future retirement. We will probably hear more such stories as the recession deepens. As always get hard asset protection like Gold and Silver, get out of debt, get basic necessities and dry goods, have enough cash to meet several months expenses, and be very picky (selective) with your investments. darkhorse (11/25/01; 13:33:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65854) Galearis, your 65849 I think you're probably from a generation or two ahead of me when you refer to real silver dollars and "...there are a couple of generations of new players out there who do not share this background and have digested nothing but anti-gold and silver media sentiment." In my early 40's myself, I can remember a lot of silver in my paper route change bag (oh, if I only knew then what I know now!), but nothing in the way of investment vehicles. There are some, but I'd say relatively very few, of my generation and younger that aren't totally ignorant of what's going on in our world. I'd like to believe what one of my brothers said one day a few years ago (re: TPTB and what's going on, not just with PM's)..."There's more of us than you think.". Oh, but to be more sure of that...I'd sleep much better at night. Here's to the wisdom God has given all of us! Pizz (11/25/01; 13:31:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 65853) What If?? Glad to see more posts discussing world realignment of Gold reserves. This is the only logical explanation for the "manipulation" of gold's price. Large CB sales (gold) are taking place just like large block institutional stock sales. They are taking place at close to "spot" (maybe??), but at a at a controlled price (my assumption), and over time. They're (whom ever is buying)are using dollars. Might just explain the $'s rise and bond liquidation right before a major sale?Now, I cannot believe that the bulk of the world is getting ready to take on the dollar and the US. If the US economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold - that's fact - we're just too big a player. I seem to be getting the impression that many think that after all is said and done, $ holders and the US are going to be left holding the bag.Try this senario:The bagholders are going to be all the untaxed underground economies (drug cartels, counterfeiters, etc.).For all practical purposes, greater Europe has called their respective currencies. If you're holding untaxed european curriencies what do you do? Right now you shove it all into US dollars. Russia's underground economy already is holding dollars, China????. Japan????The end game may be the US calling the dollar. Some years ago I read in more than one place that the US already had the stuff printed. (It will be on a modified gold standard also, as will all other currencies as soon as AU is redistributed according to respective countries GDP, etc.)When the money is called, the untaxed will be taxed, the illegal (this will be a politcal decision)will hold worthless paper, and the US will adjust the national balance sheet - basically repudiating the debt of illegal and untaxed activity which will be very politically acceptable (no, all politicians are not dishonest).Is cornering the underground economy into the US dollar, repudiating debt and currency for this block, and realigning the world into a modified gold standard enough to suck up a current world wide glut of US dollars and debt??I think so, and if not, they'll spread the balance thru proper realignment.I hope something like this is in the works, because if it isn't, you better be buying ammo right along with your AU. You'll need it.Pizz megatron (11/25/01; 12:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65852) FOREX Have been running an interesting thread at OANDA with some forex traders about gold reserves and their effect on the currency direction. By the time a country had actually sold the metal at least a couple of hundred insiders and speculators would know anyway long before(long in their time frame means weeks) This would show up on the technical charts, if it were not totally discounted, which it mostly is according to 95% of the posters, as they watch interest moves and other factors far more closely and have a microscopic time frame. As for the euro I suspect anyone hoping to 'profit' from the actual release should be prepared for financial losses. Most of the traders are very bearish and are short with no reason to see otherwise. Gold backing means absolutely nothing to the trillions in FOREX trades everyday.They could say 50% backing tommorow. It will mean nothing to the 'value' of the euro. Which is the perfect scenario for PLU! Belgian (11/25/01; 11:14:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 65851) Steve Hickel to Horatio Steve, if it is a fact that China has been accumulating 15.000 tonnes of Gold...conclusions, seems obvious to me.A Chineze copy of the EMU reserve-management and alignment with the euro, in competition, against the dollar.But I strongly doubt that China with a GDP of 4,5 Trillion $ (CIA figures), has accumulated 15.000 tonnes of Gold against the supposed8.000 tonnes of the US with GDP of 10 trillion $ ? (recently announced miningefforts-state controlled or private ?)(Japan GDP=3,5 trillion $ - 400 tonnes). It is perhaps a sudden revelation of reliable/correct statistics of this kind, that might cause the sudden and unexpected Gold-Surprise (POG Kaboom)? Netking (11/25/01; 11:07:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65850) Investors urge Anglo to up Normandy bid / and Australians to quit Normandy? http://smh.com.au/news/0111/26/biztech/biztech5.html *** Anglo urged to up bid ***Snippet:AngloGold, the world's biggest goldminer, has the support of most shareholders to raise its $3.2 billion offer for Australia's Normandy Mining to beat a higher bid from Colorado's Newmont Mining, investors said.AngloGold chief executive Bobby Godsell wants to buy Normandy in his company's biggest step to lessen its dependence on South Africa, where the depth of deposits make mining the most expensive in the world. Failure will leave few takeover targets since five of the six top gold companies are taking over large mines or rivals."People would say go for it," said Armin Diem, head of southern African asset management for Appleton Asset in Cape Town, which owns AngloGold stock. "They are desperate to diversify, and I don't think there are too many acquisitions left."Four out of five fund managers surveyed by Bloomberg said AngloGold should raise its offer, which Normandy has rejected in favour of recommending Newmont's bid to shareholders. . . . "Comment: Yes AngloGold are "desperate to diversify", and true there are "not too many acquisitions left" for them. I suspect the AngloGold shareholders can see their chances "slip sliding away". Maybe Bobby Godsell should give Barrick a call, perhaps they'd be a good match huh.*** Punters likely to abandon Newmont ***In today's 'The Australian' suggests locals may "exit Normandy" Some snippet:LOCAL fund managers are sceptical that US gold giant Newmont Mining will retain the support of Australian investors should it win Normandy Mining.Instead, most are expected to quit Newmont as soon as possible.Newmont plans to list on the Australian Stock Exchange during the course of its takeover of Normandy to allow local institutions to hold and trade its stock.The company also envisages a share split similar to that proposed by rival suitor AngloGold to attract Australian retail investors and boost its local liquidity.However, fund managers contacted by The Australian said they would probably quit the stock entirely should the Newmont bid succeed."(Newmont) is not a stock we've ever followed, and we're not likely to in future, either," one Melbourne-based fund manager told The Australian."We simply don't like to hold shares in companies (listed here but) based overseas." One Sydney fund manager said the "general feeling" was that the battle for Normandy was simply a good chance to quit what had been an underperforming stock for several years."Most of us are looking at this simply as an exit strategy," he said. . . . ."http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,3316960%255E643,00.html------------------------------------------------------------Galearis - My thoughts also Sir, nobody ever regreted buying quality in PM stocks or PM's, if the purity can't be confirmed, "it aint worth it". Not long until a silver move now(smile), if people haven't got their physical Ag positions in place they may not get the chance for several reasons. 2002 will be a hot year for Ag/Au(defiant grin)! Must fly now . . . Galearis (11/25/01; 09:16:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65849) @Black Blade re First Silver Reserve & Netking No hedging, very low debt. FSR: One of the great little sleepers out there, good reserves, wonderful grade (argentite), and still profitable at bottom spot. (Not investment advice, and sorry M.K.)Netking: My personal smug fest has little place on this forum, but sometimes a little personal touch serves to moisten an oft-times drier table fare. Watch that Mexican silver artifact production. Pm fraud in Mexico is epidemic (or pandemic [smile] as exports. I am usually loathe to touch it unless the patina is correct and the stamping of hallmarks appears to "move" the metal appropriately. Watch out for embossed hallmarks. I frequently see Mexican 925 jewellry ("stamped" as such) that turn out to be only plated items. On the other hand a lot of this material that is only marked "Mexico" and the makers name is actually 800 silver.Also:In the most recent article on the EURO over there on Gold-Eagle (I do not remember the author's name - but recommend the read) he mentions that "they" are taking the 100 ozer etc. silver bars out there and melting them down to make 1000 ozers. I do not know how this process could be going on, however, if correct, they are actively attempting to take investment/speculation (pm bugs) out of the demand equation for the coming bull. They are attempting to destroy the concept of silver as money/wealth hedges. So far nobody is talking about this but me, you and my other half, Rhody. It also means my buying of sterling etc artifact collectibles is NOT an unwise thing. It also means we'd better buy up the small bars if possible before they are no longer with us. The same principle is in mind for them with gold and the push to concentrate on jewellry promotion. The scrap market and retail mark-up - and purity problems/differences of a cultural nature from east to west - ensures that this stuff stays at home and out of the market for a long time. Gemstone presence compounds the problem. Plus, fewer buy jewellry during a depression. This also on a cyclical basis reduces demand for gold jewellry as an investment. "They" would seem to be attempting to change the concept of investment in pms, to degrade it, and make it less efficient - in order to protect the fiat world view. The next step [watch for it] may well be a gradually withdrawl from production of small bar 999 gold similar to what we are now seeing in silver. The jewellry industry, if successful in this campaign may significantly reduce the availability of small bar bullion. We will begin to see more provincial production of 18k, 14k, 10k and (next for N.A.) 9k. For those of us who remember real silver dollars (for example) this process will not work, but there are a couple of generations of new players out there who do not share this background and have digested nothing but anti-gold and silver media sentiment. Again this would represent an industrial commodity use of gold (similar to silver) and make it much more a niche market thing.With the ever growing population in the world, this trend would seem to be logical and there surely would be a political impetus behind it to promote the process. That is what I believe we are beginning to see now.Regards,G. Rockgrabber (11/25/01; 08:07:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 65848) Belgian Just read that last post, agree very much with what I read. People are not seeing the picture that has been shown to them on our "Gold Trail". I had to re-think my own thoughts and come up with a new game plan when I realized gold was not going to give any profits to owners buying leveraged positions. Poeple dont want the gold they want the dollar profits. Therefore their positions are failing them. The folks that understand that you have to have the physical metal here are poised for super WEALTH increase. I also believe that the people who are buying the metal are real believers in it, and dont plan to give it back to the market at ANY PRICE!! Its just good ol concreetized enery to be saved up not sold off. Side note (funny) I went to the skins game yesterday. On the 8th tee after Tiger hit the ball, instead of yelling "get in the hole" I yelled "WIN DOLLARS, BUY GOLD". They all head and looked. After Monty hit I yelled, "convert to Euros". I had a few drinks. I am still proud though. Usul (11/25/01; 07:52:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 65847) Much still lies ahead http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm "The recognition phase of the bear market has not yet occurred""$2.45 are still spent on trading for every $1 spent on the purchase of goods or services in the economy!""The evidence still points to an ongoing bear market...."- Alan M. Newman Belgian (11/25/01; 07:46:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 65846) Canuck and Invisible Both postings are "the" point here on this special forum !A valuation of Gold = 600 $ per ounce can be discussed all over the net. But exchanges of opinions on a possible dramatic change in $ / € / Gold / oil /and geopolitical power balances, are not to be found, on so many forums ! That's what is making this place so "special", to me.Speculators, who wish to double their paper wealth with Gold derivatives (including goldmine-shares) or with the metal itself, might find masses of gambling opportunities, * daily *,in the enormous bag of financial razmataz.Questionning the risks on holding goldmine-shares-papers, is not within a vision of a POG zigzagging at 600$ and back again ! No, it is about a complete new approach on Gold's role into the next decade.The only point I wanted to make was : POG in a matter of days/weeks, from its bottom to the thousands of dollars. A Kaboom ! And an argumentation why this could be a possibility and the consequences for all goldmines !When one is convinced that the US$/oil/euro/gold, and thepresent is just a pauze in the past evolution, further into the future...all rules and speculative opportunities, will remain the same. But, what are we discussing then ?Invisible's article, after Tony's euro hiccup, illustrates the underlying, building, tensions between america and the old continent, europ. Both continents re-positionning themselves against each other, under the sun, with their respective currency as main input into that struggle.And Gold is definitely currency related and goldmines have something to do with Gold.For this reason I don't understand why I must be ridiculed (politely) for honestly, questionning my own goldmine-share holding (GOLD) in public ? Just communicating the risk /reward, pro and contra's on "all", goldmine-shares, in the above-discribed context. If we want to become free and independant individuals...we should set Gold *free*, ourselves ! And we are not going to achieve this with overvaluing mineshares, with speculative buys, widescale promotion and hopes, and wait for white knights to invest and hold the Physical Gold for wealth preservation at our convience. We cannot blame the goldproducers and the collectivity, for not setting/letting Gold, free...if we don't see the importance of having the Physical in one's own Possession ! What is wrong with this logic ? CoBra(too) (11/25/01; 07:16:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65845) Euros and Gold According to Bill Buckler(The Privateer(quote)China has made it official that it is shifting 10% of its foreign exchange reserves (read U.S. Tsy Bonds and U.S. Dollars) - into Euros. The Austrian Central Bank has announced that it recently bought (yes, BOUGHT) $US 1 Billion wort of GOLD, though it has been impossible to find WHO the Austrians bought gold from. (unquote) Amazing - and take this piece of information within the context of the recent and potentially ongoing rout in the Treasury Bond markets one cannot help the feeling that the tide is changing. Is a move to "diversify" out of U.S. Dollars into Euros - and Gold commencing? If so, we'll be in for some turbulent times. Regards - cb2 Canuck (11/25/01; 05:26:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 65844) @ Belgian Re: 65809 Good day to you Sir.Regarding your fine post I substitute one word into the last paragraph. This may be of interest to Waverider and Rugbug."Gold from a neglectable extreme low profile to the topic number one !? A cataclysm. A fight for getting the Physical ASAP. No underground gold available ! Mine-prices, crumble and government take them private...for less than 2 cents ? Why not ?"Once government own the 'deep storage' gold trading carries'GST', Gold Services Tax at X percent. (See FOA/TG archives for the value of 'X', 10%, 25%, 60%, 99%??) The Invisible Hand (11/25/01; 04:59:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65843) For easy reference http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/article/0,,9003-2001544289,00.html Sorry for the mispost The Invisible Hand (11/25/01; 04:58:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65842) http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/article/0,,9003-2001544289,00.html The euro will sink, just as the gold standard did sink snippit:The outlook for the euro economy next year is that it will go on sinking; the outlook for our economy, for which Brown deserves credit, is that it may go on swimming. Why should we choose to sink with the euro rather than swim with the pound? Will the euro even survive? In the history of fixed exchange rates the gold standard is the classic example. As a store of long-term value, in terms of price stability and in low interest rates, gold was the most efficient exchange system in human economic experience. Nevertheless, the gold system itself was unable to sustain serious economic shocks, which included wars and slumps. Britain had to suspend it in 1797 because of the Napoleonic wars, in 1914 because of the first world war and in 1931 because of the slump. The United States had to suspend gold convertibility during the civil war and finally ended the Bretton Woods system during the Vietnam conflict Canuck (11/25/01; 04:51:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65841) Euro Countdown 37 daysUS$/Euro 0.878 Canuck (11/25/01; 04:50:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 65840) @ Horatio (65836) Excellent note, I hope that you are correct. SteveH (11/25/01; 02:24:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 65839) Horatio Two points to your comments:1) Which houses or properties will these foreigners live in? Shall we become a nation of renters?2) If the fed keeps the spiggots open despite the need to tighten, what would the net affect be?I believe that is the point previously made at this site -- the Fed will not allow the tightening of credit despite an influx of dollars, thus accepting the outcome of that approach over a tightening approach.Ironically, we may be seeing this affect in the DOW currently, in which the index continues to hover at an unrealistic high despite the failure of CNBC to nail the exact turn around that seems to be just around the corner. Reason: foreign money finding its way into the index, thus maintaining what appears to be an unrealistic level as would seem to be warrated by all the bad news and lowered corporate profits. Plus ownership of many international-based US Corps seems to have shifted to more foreign ownership than US ownership now -- our foreign-based dollars (needing a home) at work. New subject:Could the establishment responsible for the curtailment of the price of gold not be so much worried about the affect of the inflation indicator inherent in gold? Instead, might they be concerned about the re-evaluation of gold to a higher dollar price in respect to the alleged 15,000 tons that the Chinese may possess (unencumbered) as highlighted by a website that ORO had mentioned early this month, late last month? If the US really has but 2500 tons of unencumbered gold left (chewed up by Certs of SDR's) and the Chinese have 15,000 tons of the metal, this sounds like a classic shift of wealth that would not sit well at many levels. Rugbug (11/25/01; 00:46:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 65838) thanks all Hey you guys, those were very informative responses that some of you wrote in answer to my question. I appreciate the response and feel that I can make a better investment descision now.Time to sleep , bye. Rugbug The Invisible Hand (11/25/01; 00:45:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65837) Gold Stocks RugBug,Don't confuse real gold with any investment that's only indirectly related to gold – such as a share of a goldmining stock. Gold stocks are _stocks_. Like other stocks, their values are affected by factors – such as company management which can change its view on hedging at any moment, strikes, government, policies, political unrest, and the like – that have nothing to do with the price of gold. Gold stocks can go down when gold itself is rising. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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