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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/25/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(1/25/2001; 23:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46494)
RE: REVELATION (1/25/2001; 13:04:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46440)
You wrote:
Steve Kaplan known gold trader says:
Why everyone is hoping for a reccesion to move gold is
beyond me becuase demand would fall off and so
goes the price of gold possibly. This is not carved out in
stone but I think Steve knows more than we do. Panda
Gold on this forum states that the USA titanic sinks into economic turmoil GOLD will be our life rafts. Maybe or
maybe not but one thing is clear GOLD can't rally for
anything.
Black Blade: Funny – Gold reacted exactly the opposite to that proposed scenario during every recession in modern history, not to mention that gold investments were tremendous gainers in deflationary environments as in the "Great Depression". Albeit, gold ownership was illegal in the US at the time, however, gold "proxies" such as Homestake Mining did extremely well. Many such as Mr. Kaplan simply don't remember history.
Black Blade
(1/25/2001; 23:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46493)
After Hours
http://toplist.island.com/toplist/top20.jsp?AH=on&frc=off&SORT=0
After hours trading shows a "Sea of Red." Futures indices are also lower. Yet Gold is flat.
Chris Powell
(1/25/2001; 23:02:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46492)
South African publicity for GATA
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/625
South African paper raises gold price issue
and GATA's forthcoming visit.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
THX-1138
(01/25/01; 22:48:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46491)
National Debt discussed on Fox News this evening
http://www.tsp.gov/
I was watching Fox News and they were discussing Greenspan and paying off the national debt.
One economist said that if you paid off the debt there wouldn't be anything to invest your money in.
There wouldn't be any debt based US Treasury bonds.
I thought this was rather amusing as I was discussing the same topic with a liberal Democrat co-worker just the other day.
If there was no debt, there wouldn't be any Government Employees Thrift Savings Plan G-Fund (Gov't bonds) or F-Fund (bonds and another asset). The only thing you could stick your retirement fund into currently would be the C-Fund which follows the S&P Index.
auspec
(01/25/01; 22:12:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46490)
ThaiGold
Trail Continues
Putting together my simple premises with the info from Orville G--- Gold is a common currency used in exchange for your 3 O's, and a nice "dark" currency it is. If I sell a lot of O {lets say oil} and make a lot of profit, in gold per cheap dollar terms, then some of that "currency" will find it's way to market. This depresses POG, again in dollar terms, and sets up a cycle where even greater amounts of gold can be had for same Oil. Drives POG down as long as the SUPPLY of Au is available for these transactions. Right?
Continuing forward, regardless of the absolute correctness of the premises above: What factors will cause a change in profitability of your 3 O's? Oil is quite profitable right now and likely will be for a few more years until pendulum swings back. your other two O's are probably quite profitable right now for at least 2 obvious reasons: Boom times with lots of money sloshing around. The supply is controlled to a degree because of the illegalities of these substances. Cartels, turf wars and so on act on these substances like existing control of diamonds.
So, what busts up this formula for success? 1. Unprofitable oil {look back a couple years} 2. Unprofitable illegal drug trades {have no clue on how that changes except what mentioned above} 3. Back to gold supply problems {if the gold is not there it can't be used in this cycle of trade}. All of this depends on a large flow of "tarnished" gold. That and Oil look like the leading candidates for change in this cycle.
Anyway, come on back, teacher, before I make an even bigger fool of myself.
Mr Gresham
(01/25/01; 21:54:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46489)
"Revelation"
Clink, clink, clink, clink, clink, clink.
Clink, clink, clink, clink, clink, clink.
Cl-i-in-k, c-l-i-nk, cl-i-n-k, cl-i-nk, c-l-i-n-k.
(Sorry, I had to count the little ones.)
(Henri, you still out there?)
PH in LA
(01/25/01; 21:10:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 46488)
Headline: Easy Al Confirms FOA's Predictions
After hearing about how Easy Al told congress today that he is now (suddenly... what a co-oincidence!) no longer opposed to tax cuts because projections are (now, suddenly... what a co-oincidence!) for the federal debt to be paid off within 10 years... and that the only thing that could change that would be a "prolonged downturn in the economy".
This also fits perfectly with what FOA has been saying for some time: That Greenspan does not enjoy the luxury of a recession to prolong the life of the dollar by squeezing out the effects of excessive money creation through recession because of the Euro waiting in the wings to assume reserve currency status.
And both of these concepts fit with the traditional view and purpose of inflation and debt repayment... The time-honored practise of paying off debt with less-valuable (ie inflated) fiat units. Remember the German inflation of the 1920s that was allowed, even encouraged by the German government for the purpose of liquidating the German war debt created by Germany's loss of WW I? Or the so-called Carter inflation of the 70s that came about as a way to pay back the excesses of the Vietnam war years? Sure looks like that's what Easy Al and Company have planned for us. Only this time, they're already on their way to inflating away 75 years of irresponsibiliy through the inflation of the very world reserve currency itself. Is this the first time inflation has been used on such a scale, FOA?
SHIFTY
(01/25/01; 20:43:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46487)
beesting
beesting: I own physical gold just in case the shares don't work out. If I was not under water in them I would likely sell some of them to buy more physical. I am not into stocks. I own them just in case the Government wants to try to steal the real deal.
This reminds me of the fox that killed one of my hens last night. Could be some gun play at $hifty's place tonight. Time to take a walk with my friend Dan Wesson.
:-)
$hifty
Hill Billy Mitchell
(01/25/01; 20:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46486)
The Hoople @ # 46445
Sir Hoople:
Your CRI index is very close to mine. The only differences are as follow:
1) I have no core rate exclusions due to the fact that I have no debt, home or otherwise
2) I have no way of monitoring health care expenses in the last several years, because my wife and I self-insure (not recommended for the masses) and since we have had no illnesses in the recent past, we have no way to tell about the increased cost of medical care for us, therefore I defer to your number. A rather sobering thought for us who will have to pay when the time comes to divy up.
I was impressed that the numbers you came up with as they are so very close to what we have experienced. Your food cost increase of 8% (higher if eating out) was right on the money for my wife and I. We eat out more that half of our meals and our cost increase for eating out year over year for about three years would apporach 13%,.
If our experience is the general one and I believe it is, then Greenspan who generally doesn't lie (only desquises the truth so that we do not react in an improper manner) will be exposed in due time. This inflation is a bombshell. Rhetoric and distortion of the facts will not make it go away any more that it will make budget deficits and trade devicits go away.
Very respectfully,
HBM
Canuck
(01/25/01; 20:31:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46485)
@ lamprey_65
Excellent post earlier Sir.
I have been following Placer for a while. They have in effect said, "..as of Feb. 00 we are reducing hedging", thus the mini-spike to $312.
The Placer CEO, (god I'm bad at names) Taylor said in several announcements that "Placer will shut down marginal operations (as well should other mines), and be profitable without further forward sales and exotic sales."
I believe Placer is a Unhedged (want-to-be). I also believe they are moving towards that end.
Your statement of buyers coming direct to suppliers is most interesting. Yes, I see buyers coming to Placer at the 'government trade deficit reducing price' of $562 per ounce. That is to say that the 'paper POG' of $266.34 is not the price.
Good post amigo, yeah, Placer (and Barrick) talk in todays paper of major writedowns but let's be really honest here.
Who's working for $400 plus and who is not? Placer or Barrick?
Salut
SHIFTY
(01/25/01; 20:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46484)
The Stranger
Thanks Stranger . I thought you or someone here would know. The reason I was concerned was my broker told me it would take a week to ten days. My broker is a real nice guy, I just don't trust the people he works for (Morgan Stanley Dean Witter) . Seems they are forever getting fined for some illegal activities. They don't seem to care if they get fined because they make far more money than the fine costs them. I would change brokerage companies but I like my broker.
$hifty
beesting
(01/25/01; 20:19:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46483)
Sir Shifty # 46473
Hi again Sir Shifty, your question:
<My question is does Morgan Stanley Dean Witter buy and sell these stocks to make money for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter?>
The way I understand it, your stocks when held by your broker, are in electronic or ledger form only. I would guess the brokerage house may use the dollar value of your stocks in some way, shape, or form, the same way a bank uses bank account holders assets to create new "money".
Some of the companies you mentioned in post 46473 are South African based companies,their stock is traded in the U.S. as "ADR's(American Depository Receipt's) or ADS's(American Depository Shares). The Bank of New York(The Fed) holds actual ownership of these shares(Electronic?)issued by companies outside of the U.S. The Bank of New York than gives permission for brokerage houses to trade "proxy's" of the actual shares(ADR's & ADS's) on U.S. Exchanges. A subsidiary bank also acts as a fiduciary agent for your shares, keeping track of dividend payoffs and quarterly & annual report mailouts. This bank issues the actual ADR,ADS
certificate to you. A month wait for dividends or certificates is not too unusual.
Sirs Stranger, van Eeden, Nickel62, or Peter Archer or others, if they're reading may be able to go into more detail about this process.
Now, does anyone see a flaw in the above percieved ownership of your stock shares?
Here it is:
1. The Bank of New York owns the actual shares of your company, and may count the value as assets on their published financial statements.
2. The subsidiary bank may also count the value of your shares as bank assets when filing financial forms, for their bank.
3. Your brokerage house may also include the share value on their financial statements, if the shares are held by them.
4. And you my friend Shifty, are supposed to name the company that paid dividends(If your in certain tax brackets) on your income tax returns and you would naturally add the dollar share value into your own personal financial assets.
All this was written to show that it is possible for "4" different entities to claim the value of your stock shares, at the same time!
Real "Physical" Wealth such as Gold can only be in one place at a time!
Get "Real" wealth, get Gold....beesting.
The Hoople
(01/25/01; 20:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46482)
Grid collapse scenario
Anybody wanting to throw a bucket of icewater on a grasshopper should rent the 1990 film "Trigger Effect", about a power collapse that drags on for a few weeks. It is a very real portrayal of a social breakdown after grid failure. Y2k preparers may one day be redeemed if California continues to descend into hell. I know I have no plans to travel there next summer.
TheStranger
(01/25/01; 19:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46481)
Cavan Man
Technically, a recession is when the economy experiences two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth (shrinkage, if you prefer) in GDP. Zero growth almost gets you there but not quite.
As to your comments about Wall Streeters having the dots connected, I respectfully disagree. I wouldn't give these guys credit for any more intelligence than they have got. An awful lot of them are just like Joe Battipaglia (if you know who he is). They are ALWAYS bullish on the economy, and they are always bullish on stocks.
Mark my words. Inflation will continue to climb this year. Sooner of later, gold and the dollar will react. To a man, these Pollyannas will claim that nobody could have seen it coming. The hang of it is, such earnest mendacity will mollify all but the most discerning of their clients. It's irritating as hell, but it always works that way.
The Hoople
(1/25/2001; 19:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46480)
MO VER MEG
Duly noted and added. Timely too, since I just got a shocking car repair bill tonight. I'm still not factoring "schrinkage of product", ie; smaller restaurant portions or diminished services. My health insurance renewal had higher co-pays, more exclusions, and more restrictive presription criteria. Thanks for the tip.
Humble Pie
(1/25/2001; 19:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46479)
Java Man #46458
Your words are like chicken soup, for the troubled mind and body. Thanks
TheStranger
(1/25/2001; 19:40:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46478)
Shifty
You can relax. It is perfectly normal to wait six weeks or more before receiving your certificates. This is because the broker has been holding them in street name. In your case, that means Morgan Stanley is the registered owner. This is always done in order to make it easier for clients to sell with a simple phone call when the time comes. But it means that ordering them out will necessitate their being turned in to their respective transfer agents first. The transfer agents then destroy the certificates and replace them with new ones entitled to you. The new ones are then sent out to the broker who only then mails them out to you.
And keep an eye on that mail box. You'll want to be sure you let your broker know after about 60 days if you have not received all of your certificates. Replacing lost ones after that will require your posting an insurance bond, which is not inexpensive.
What with maintaining your own tax records, cashing your dividends and keeping track of stock splits, you may quickly realize why clients with large portfolios usually prefer to leave the certificates on deposit with their brokers.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(1/25/2001; 19:37:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46477)
WELCOME!
Turkey Hunter, WELCOME TO THE GOLDEN TRENCH! If you or SLINGSHOT need a place/grounds for wild turkey, you're always welcome to SOUTHERN INDIANA. Doing a real estate appraisal in SPENCER COUNTY, INDIANA, Tuesday, came across 6 wild turkeys in a cornfield. What a beautiful site to behold!
Hey grasshopper, BRING ON THAT $190.00 an ounce and keep me in mind when you do really sell! Contact: dpersoh1@freewwweb.com WITH PRICE LISTS/delivery couriers, terms, etc.! Physical, that is! What a rush that will be. FIAT PAPER for $190.00 PHYSICAL GOLD! Oh, Oh, what's that saying: If it sounds too good to be true, it probable isn't true.
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 18:44:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46476)
Shifty
Just one more quicky before I go
I believe they loan them for shorting
Cavan Man
(1/25/2001; 18:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46475)
"the stranger"
Regarding your connecting of the dots:
Interest Rate Cuts + Tax Cuts + Money Supply Growth in 2X Digits + Higher Energy Cost = Inflation.
I believe your former associates at the Wall/Broad stockyards have the dots connected. Despite their understanding of simple geometry, they are leading the hogs to slaughter and are enjoying their bacon bit by bit.
When the last carcass has been picked clean, they will swear off that "other white meat" for a horse of a different and golden color. Some things never change; pork really isn't that good for you. They were right in the Pentateuch. Shalom....CM
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 18:33:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46474)
My parting shot for the night
It is long past my bedtime, I have made my hot chocolate, but I will leave you with this thought. Think of the volume of money that is sloshing around out there - especially in the stock market. A lot has drifted out, and more will follow. It will only take a very small percentage indeed of that massive volume to start trickling into the mining sector with its low cap to send it flying.
I guarantee that has not gone unnoticed by certain people, who have been quietly picking up all the stock that disillusioned 'goldbugs' have been selling.
Because of the low cap, they have had to pick it up in drips and drabs, otherwise they would have bid against themselves - n'est ce pas?
One day, one day ............and not that far away. What's another year, if that, (and I don't think it will be).
With that I bid adieu to all
SHIFTY
(1/25/2001; 18:25:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46473)
Gold Stocks
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter / Funny Business ? ? ?
I told my broker that I wanted to hold my stock certificates because
I was afraid if the stock market tanked Morgan Stanley Dean Witter could go
under and I did not want to wait till a judge figured out who owned what.
He told me no problem. Well it has been about three weeks or more . I
received my Harmony on Monday and Goldfields on Tuesday but still no Golden
Star Resources. My aunt has received her Harmony and is still waiting for
her Goldfields, Golden Star Resources, Glamis Gold Ltd. I spoke to my broker
this afternoon and he said that Harmony and Goldfields was sent out on the
16 , Golden Star Resources on the 19 and Glamis Gold Ltd was sent on the 23.
My question is does Morgan Stanley Dean Witter buy and sell these stocks to
make money for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter? Could they use my shares to hold
down a stock and then repurchase the shares at a later time on the cheap. I
smell a rat but then again I am very suspicious of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.
Any thoughts on this ?
$hifty
slingshot
(1/25/2001; 18:17:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46472)
TURKEY HUNTER HOOSIER GOLDBUG
All Right! Turkey Hunter. Welcome aboard. We have a few things in common. Both of us hunt. We are looking to accumulate wealth with gold. We are new to this arena. Great story for comparison. Been there. When gold takes off, what a rush that will be.
Hey! Hoosier Goldbug, always enjoy your enthusiasm. Keep it up. Stay the plan. Told you all about the small time investors.
Do not worry about the negative posters. It is hard to laugh in the face of adversity. Learn from them.
To all you seasoned warriors of the gold war I say
THE NEWBIES ARE COMING!, THE NEWBIES ARE COMING!.
Cavan Man
(1/25/2001; 17:41:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46471)
Trail Guide and Ancient Gold
But, we digress....
Isn't there a fair amount of controversey surrounding this gentleman. True, there is an ancient ruin upon the site you reference but, did not an archeologist of that same period salt the ruins to make his discovery seem more credible? Was it this German? Wasn't there something about a necklace or jewelery that was not authentic? Didn't this fellow actually destroy a lot of the excavation? Am I thinking of someone else?
auspec
(1/25/2001; 17:41:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46470)
Pandagold
Where were they when Saffra needed them? {right there?}
turkey hunter
(1/25/2001; 17:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46469)
Gold and Turkey hunting
I'm just a beginner in this gold market. I've studied the postings on this forum for about 9 months and have learned a lot. I have come to see that turkey hunting and waiting to hit the gold market at the right time have 2 common denominators. One is patience the other is the unnaturalness of it all. Let me explain. To kill a wild turkey one has to have patience to sit and wait. I might sit in camouflage for two or three hours making a yelping sound like a female turkey knowing that there is a big gobbler strutting right over the hill. He gobbles and sounds like he is coming in range for a shotgun blast to the head, but five minutes later he gobbles and is afar off.. The adrenaline comes and goes and I wonder what I did wrong. But in reality I never did anything wrong for the gobbler turkey thinks in an unnatural way when it comes to hooking up with a female turkey. In most animals the male will seek the female but not the wild turkey gobbler. He expects the female hen to come to him. So I can sit there, and yelp all I want, but chances are he will not come in right away because he thinks I'm coming in to him. Only with patience can I succeed for I know the gobbler will run his course. He will walk the same path as he did yesterday. This is why it is important to scout the area out and know what the turkeys are doing the time of day one will be hunting. So it is with gold. We are trying to find answers in a unnatural market. The market is unnatural (manipulated). We have done our homework and scouted it all out. We know what path gold will take. We wait and wait and wait. We think it is about to happen only to have the adrenaline shoot up and then down again, and then it starts to rain and we want to give up and call it a day. But we wait for we know the path gold will take. History repeats itself; nothing stays the same (except the commandments of
God). Gold has and always will be valuable it is just some men would like us to think otherwise; because they want as much as they can get first.
He who has the knowledge and patience can bag the big gobbler and hold a bag of wealth.
turkey hunter
(1/25/2001; 17:20:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46468)
Gold and
I'm just a beginner in this gold market. I've studied the postings on this forum for about 9 months and have learned a lot. I have come to see that turkey hunting and waiting to hit the gold market at the right time have 2 common denominators. One is patience the other is the unnaturalness of it all. Let me explain. To kill a wild turkey one has to have patience to sit and wait. I might sit in camouflage for two or three hours making a yelping sound like a female turkey knowing that there is a big gobbler strutting right over the hill. He gobbles and sounds like he is coming in range for a shotgun blast to the head, but five minutes later he gobbles and is afar off.. The adrenaline comes and goes and I wonder what I did wrong. But in reality I never did anything wrong for the gobbler turkey thinks in an unnatural way when it comes to hooking up with a female turkey. In most animals the male will seek the female but not the wild turkey gobbler. He expects the female hen to come to him. So I can sit there, and yelp all I want, but chances are he will not come in right away because he thinks I'm coming in to him. Only with patience can I succeed for I know the gobbler will run his course. He will walk the same path as he did yesterday. This is why it is important to scout the area out and know what the turkeys are doing the time of day one will be hunting. So it is with gold. We are trying to find answers in a unnatural market. The market is manipulated. We know what path gold will take. We wait and wait and wait. We think it is about to happen only to have the adrenaline shoot up and then down again, and then it starts to rain and we want to give up and call it a day. But we wait for we know the path gold will take. History repeats itself; nothing stays the same (except the commandments of
God). Gold has and always will be valuable it is just some men would like us to think other wise; because they want as much as they can get first.
He who has the knowledge and patience can bag the big gobbler and hold a bag of wealth.
Sierra Madre
(1/25/2001; 17:17:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46467)
Letter from a friend, old oil hand, lives in Texas.
The following is a recent thing I responded to with some of the coffee Group. I have miss several meetings . but it seems that the Coffee Group has just discovered the energy problem? I was talking to Gene Dugger, my Dalhart Railroader expert last night and he tells me that his gas bill three months ago was $75, 2 months ago $130 and this last month $250. of course it is a lot colder up in Dalhart but my point is that in California, where the shortage is felt utility prices are firm no price increases. The consumers in Dalhart and elsewhere are already having to pay for the price increases in gas created by Demand. whereas in CA prices are frozen but get the gas anyway. I heard this AM that VP Dick Cheney came up with an idea that in order to get power into CA that we build Power Plants in Mexico. Perhaps that avoids our enviornmentalist, but does nothing to obtaining the manufactored parts such as turbines.nor the fuel supply. The Speculators have already contracted mftg space for Turbines for a few years out, no space available. There is not enough gas now to fuel the Power Plants that are built much less the plants projected. 25% of natural gas in USA now comes from the Gulf of Mexico Waters. They have been producing at maxiumium volumes and the decline curve is 20-25%/year for these early years of production, the rate of decline then smooths out, but deliverability is gone. The proposed Power Plant here in Montgomery County is by a CA nonregulated company that is a subsiduary of a regulated company. They propose to sell power to the highest bidder. The credit and talent of the regulated company was diverted to this nonregulated company and the CA rate payers that created the opportunity do not participate. Back to the proposal to build a Power Plant in Mexico... for months there has been a proposal to export electrical power from a Arizona nuclear plant to Mexico, but the USA enviornmentalist have blocked the proposal as they do not want the transmission towers built across that isolated barren desert land of southern Arizona where very few people live and almost no roads, talk about desoluate, perhaps the most isolated desolate area in North America, other than North of Hudson Bay. Things never change. Did you listen to Allen Greenspan today in his testimony before the Senate Finance Committe?, by the way Chairman Dominice's wife stayed at our house with Millie while I escorted him around Southern New Mexico back in his early days as a candidate, I could hardly believe my ears, I only heard the last 30 minutes or so but will try to catch the reruns on CNN tonight. The most optomistic forcasts I have ever heard, provided we are able to continue our level of Productivity Gains. There is so much tax money projected that there will be no place to put it, will pay off the debt and push all commerical lenders out of the housing market. Billions and trillons of dollars. I hope this all takes into account the fact that the massives profits made on Technology stocks to those founders that sold to the Bag Holders and paid taxes before the collaspe is nonrepeatable.
lamprey_65
(1/25/2001; 17:02:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46466)
Making things simple...
1. Pretend you are the CEO of a gold mining operation, and...
2. Your company has little or no negative exposure to gold paper contracts.
3. Now, either today's pricing mechanism is effecient and today's low paper prices are justified (In this case, non-hedged mines have a problem), or...
4. There actually is a coming "meltdown" in paper gold when the physical demand can no longer be hidden with in paper charade.
5. Now, you are the CEO of a well prepared gold mining operation. You shrug your shoulders and say, "So what if the paper burns!"...
6. Why can you say this? Buyers are now coming to you directly in order to negotiate purchase contracts. Needless to say, you are receiving prices far and above paper gold. Your are in the "catbird's seat".
This is exactly what should happen if a middle-man (COMEX) no longer provides an efficient pricing mechanism (supply/demand) and "screws" the seller, but it only happens once buyers realize there is a problem (they can't find gold to buy at the quoted, paper price...kind of like the 4.8X oversubsribed auction this week at prices HIGHER than paper gold?)
Guess what?...the mines prepared for this future would make money (and reward shareholders) - the ones not prepared (ala Ashanti and Cambior) burn along with paper gold as they take their paper losses.
Physical gold IS a wealth preserver and has its place in every portfolio, but this does not negate the leverage of a mine properly prepared for the return to an efficient market pricing system (even if that system is direct business to business sales).
Place your bets.
Cavan Man
(1/25/2001; 16:51:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46465)
Greenspan Telegraphs a Contrarian Signal
I am not a very smart man but I do have a good memory and do read a great deal. To wit; the normal or average growth of goods and services measured as GNP or GDP is in the range of 2-2.5%. You must grant me that for, it is true. I have read that factoid countless times.
Today, Mr. Greenspan said we're "close to zero" (growth). Isn't that a recession?
How much longer can they expect to continue to fool John Q. Public and our international capital providers with mere words?
I learned one more thing today. There definitely is a deliberate effort to intentionally mislead people regarding the health of the US economy. What this means for gold I know not but, I do believe it is very foolish to be invested in most equities at this time.
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 16:43:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46464)
Drugs and gold
There has been mention of a link between gold and drugs in one context or another. It would be interesting if you found out who provides the military training and back-up for the top drug barons' protection and general security - also providing intelligence.
I did but it was buried in small print.
(Clue:One of the world's most elite forces)
Peter Asher
(1/25/2001; 16:39:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46463)
Just received this,
and find it applicable to the recent clamor on site regarding market loses. Kind'a put's it in the perspective of "Pounding Sand"
A philosophy professor stood before his class and had some items in front of him. When class began, wordlessly he picked up a large empty mayonnaise jar and proceeded to fill it with rocks, rocks about 2" in diameter. He then asked the students if the jar was full? They agreed that it was.
So the professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the jar. He shook the jar lightly.The pebbles, of course, rolled into the open areas between the rocks.He then asked the student again if the jar was full. They agreed it was.The students laughed. The professor picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar. Of course, the sand filled up everything else.
"Now," said the professor, "I want you to recognize that this is your life.The rocks are the important things - your family, your partner, your health, your children - anything that is so
important to you that if it were lost, you would be nearly destroyed. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, your house, your car.The sand is everything else.The small stuff."
Gold Trail Update
(1/25/2001; 16:28:50MDT - Msg ID:46462)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 16:10:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46461)
Turkey hunter Euro
The only real problem the Euro has is that they don't want you rushing in too quick, or too much. Remember, the game is no sudden, sharp movements.
The aim is to bring the dollar and euro to parity gradually, so that you hardly feel the bump - like a great ship docking.
Consequently you will get lots of mixed comments and pontifications. Why? To keep you guessing.
When gold makes its first real move, it will catch you all napping, then it will stop, and appear to come right back down again. But the hold will not be eased until the euro is home and dry.
Unless, of course, a half billion Chinese rush out and buy an ounce of gold - that would set the cat among the pidgeons for sure.
Wouldn't it be fun though. ( I must stop dreaming) This business is NOT for dreamers, but it attracts them like flies to a honey pot
Sierra Madre
(1/25/2001; 16:10:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46460)
Repost from yesterday...enough is enough!
Sierra Madre (01/24/01; 23:52:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46394)
Revelation....
I hope you don't linger here much longer. You've had your say, and have been civilly treated by others, who think
differently from you.
You are whining about gold. So whose fault is it? Do we like the situation? No! Do we whine about it? No.
So you think it s...s? OK
Then sell your miserable gold and do something with your life. Nobody is forcing you to buy gold or keep it. So if others
do want to buy gold and hold it, what business is that of yours?
I hope you don't mean to plague this Forum like uptick, goldbuggerer and skinny plague kitco. The reason I like this
Forum is that they are not here. Are you one of their incarnations?
So shut up already!
Sierra Madre
(1/25/2001; 16:00:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46459)
Tree in the Forest...apropos of your post 46450
Please look at my post of 1/24/01 No. 46394
Spot 'em a mile away...after so many years in this.
JavaMan
(1/25/2001; 15:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46458)
(No Subject)
As I watch the events at the castle from day to day, I have noticed once again, that strange phenomenon where by we are blessed with the company of new visitors who have pulled up their chair at the table and quickly proceed to point out the error of our thinking.
Then, mysteriously, perhaps another new visitor(s) shows up to support the one who's apparent mission in life is to save each of us from our own silly-ness lest we fall into some bottomless abyss of financial ruin. How altruistic, how timely?
And the discussions slowly grow in intensity and rage on, in a dialog not unlike two lines that never intersect, into infinity.
So as I scroll past most of it, I ask myself...what is the motive of those who would go to the trouble to register at an internet forum and waste little time and much effort before going into offensive mode regarding the main theme of the forum, in this case, physical gold = long term wealth preservation.
I cannot imagine entering into the presence of any group of people simply to espouse a contrary, argumentative point of view to what they hold and to do so seems to indicate that there must be some ulterior motive at work. Reminds me of "Blazing Saddles" when Gene Wilder dressed up like a member of the KKK and acted as if he had taken Clevon Little prisoner, all to infiltrate the "bad guys". When they got the attention of the other KKK members, Clevon Little said: "Hey, where's the white women?"
No, we won't relinquish our women, and we won't concede that our thinking is all wrong simply because it is "contrary" to your point of view.
As Stallone said in First Blood, "Let it alone".
On a much, much more pleasant note, Sir WAC, I thought I was the only one who read E.W. Bullinger's "Companion Bible". Glad to see I'm wrong. What a wealth of knowledge! I can also personally recommend his "Commentary on Revelation" - if your not a believer in the rapture (as I wasn't), you will be after reading this. And his "How to Enjoy the Bible". Great works from a great mind.
turkey hunter
(1/25/2001; 15:32:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46457)
Problems of the Euro
http://www.ecb.int/index.html
The above link is from the website of the ECB. Click the key speeches icon on right hand side.
Speech by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg,President of the European Central Bank,during the debate on the theme "The euro and the greater Europe", Strasbourg, 24 January 2001.
He sees challenges for the euro but sees a bright future for it.
MO VER MEG
(1/25/2001; 15:15:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46456)
The Hoople
Another Inflation Indicator: I might suggest the addition of the increasing cost of repairs - eg. auto, plumber, telephone, copier, carpenter, etc.
You are making sense to me.
auspec
(1/25/2001; 15:12:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46455)
ORO
black paper? gold
Thanks for the insight as usual. I may have comment/questions later when fully digested. Have flagged for David G.
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 15:10:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46454)
Correction
An unfortunate miss-typing error occurred towards the end. It should read "should soon show signs of life" (not 'sins' of life). Well, on reflection, maybe it could show both
I have to do these postings rather hurrriedly - please excuse
ORO
(1/25/2001; 15:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46453)
Peter Asher - wage growth in recession
Your post reminded me of the basic, and much ignored truism that recession is what you get when business can no longer fulfill demand with the current economic structure, and thus reports lower cash flows from operations, and therefore, lower earnings, and less likelihood of paying off debt. The economy then has to restructure to bring investment away from where it was overly abundant to where it was missing.
Among the less flexible aspects of the economy is the number of workers having particular sets of skills available at any time. Another is long lead time capital investment such as that in resources and large scale energy production. Corporate America adjusted to the dearth in skilled management in the 80s by raising pay through stock options, thus putting it off the books. In the late 80s, tech companies started doing the same in order to attract top tech talent without showing investors the cost. By the early 90s, tech CEOs were already stating before congress that a change in accounting rules to force them to account for stock options at full value on the books would wipe out their reported earnings.
At the end of the 90-91 recession, tech land was still short of talent and the labor markets remained constrained. Compensation continued to grow for those with the skills of the moment. Come 1994 and the advent of a workable internet access device, the sector blew up with html software requiring a heretofore unknown and nearly non-existent set of skills. The need was so great and the labor market's offerings so slim that automated html and network operating system software became an absolute must. From nowhere it grew into a standard "built in" in office software suites and the browser turned into a part of the operating system only a couple of years since the trend onto the internet started.
Labor was so constrained that technical and management talent had to be lured away from cash paying jobs to the "new economy" from the old one. High end labor costs in the whole of the economy skyrocketed when options (alluded to by Greenspan today when pointing to the mysterious component of tax revenue that wage statistics did not seem to capture). Many of the telejobbing found themselves with a virtual paycheck that suddenly disappeared at the April drop and became a net liability in Q4 as the tax on the old options was due, but the value of the new options fell to near 0. Yet the shortage in tech labor continues and the lack of skilled management has gone down the labor ladder to hit the "warm body" grocery bagger and burger flipper.
Enter dis-energy:
The lack of investment in energy exploration and power plant construction in the US in general and in California in particular - due to environmental and local NIMBY blockages - were joined by stupid regulations on purchasing strategy and price caps and with the general preference of investors to play the technology roulette rather than invest in staid old power and energy. Suddenly, further supply was not forthcoming and prices skyrocketed NASDAQ and Dot.Com style. Costs started to shift so far as to make decisions to shut down operations very easy and obvious for some commodity producers. These shut downs will move local supply offshore, where the various bananalands at least offer steady power. But the closed down capacity in Aluminum, cement, fertilizer, steel, plastics and organic chemicals etc. will lower supplies. The people working the tech businesses and those catering to them are now needed in the energy exploration and extraction field as well as to construct new power plants. Their current employers facing high energy costs and increased labor shortages will have to let go and allow people to move to the inhospitable climates and working conditions that the resource sector requires. Wages will have to rise substantially more in these areas in order to make people move.
The space w-age oddity is this emerging trend. Rig staff is already being recruited at the jail house doors. Soon demand for rigs will force new production. With steel and "low tech" electronics capacity so constrained, the new rigs and power plants will strain the whole of the world's capacity while high fertilizer costs will push farmers out of business until prices come up high enough to cover their costs. Our virtual world of "luft geschäft" meets hard physical reality.
Prices will have to continue rising - or large scale bankruptcy must put people out of work till demand reduction brings prices back down. The latter is quite unlikely.
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 14:58:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46452)
Revelation
Hopefully my last contribution to the saga of the emotional bee hive you've disturbed.
First let me say Revelation, I do not deride you. I know exactly how you feel, as I sure many of us at this forum do, we have been there, and go back occasionally, time and again, if we are honest.
We need the occasional member like yourself (in small doses) to make us question our beliefs, and to test them.
I know what you are seeking, you want to be convinced. You still, deep down in your heart, don't want to accept that your assessments and thoughts were wrong. I have to say that there can be no concrete assurances. The only real guarantee we get in life is that one day we will die. In other words your current thoughts could well be right.
BUT, yes a big BUT. Let me go back to the Titanic analogy.
We are on board, we have struck the iceberg and the ship is definitely sinking. There are not enough lifeboats, so what do we do? Well, most of them congregated at the stern and while the ships band played hymns, they sang, and prepared to meet their maker. They just accepted what appeared to them to be the inevitable.
Would you have joined them?
What would have been the most precious thing on board the ship at that time? Fat, lard. In those days they did not use oil for cooking, they used thick fat. I would have gone down to the kitchens and smeared myself thick with fat. Then I would have got some of the bed sheets and bound many deck chairs together, or wooden doors from the cabin wardrobes whatever, and made a raft. Then with plenty of blankets and some rum from the bar, I would have launched myself, with a prayer, into the water.
Would this guarantee I would live? No! But there was a very good chance it would, There would have been no chance if I had just stood and sung hymns.
Fat is not gold, but it was a precious commodity on such an occasion. And the other precious commodity is human ingenuity and the will to survive. These too would be needed if we have a worse case scenario.
In an economic catastrophe gold could buy the essential things needed to survive. It is not a guarantee of survival but is something that is accepted for trade world wide. Remember in the German hyperinflation people carried their millions in paper marks in baskets, and it is said people would steal the basket and leave the money. Maybe there is some poetic licence there but it illustrates a point.
I have also mentioned that it was gold that helped save the Korean economy from being a worse disaster, not Korean wan notes.
Yes, you can search for other things. I do. But I will never turn my back on gold, nor will I make it my god. Keep things in perspective, maintain balance.
Someone mentioned that China, some years ago dumped gold onto the market, to confound the system which was oppressing her no doubt. Here is a thought. There is a new and stronger China today, but she is still upset and nervous by those who wish her harm and to not succeed, because sh does not follow the way the US dictates.
She knows that should a war be threatened against her, she would, in the final analysis have little chance, militarily. But, she would go down fighting and her attacker would suffer a terrible retribution.
Her hope is that she can become stronger economically, so that her economic power would help to avoid a military conflict. Now if she caused a problem dumping gold on the market, how about if her people were encouraged to buy gold and force the price up. How about that for a threat?
One third of the world population that I understand, as yet, is barred from owning gold. But China is changing and hurriedly liberalising the laws on gold trading. She is, or has already, opened a market in Shanghai. Even the mere threat of a near billion Chinese( there are about 1.4 billion and growing) running out and buying a half ounce of gold would be alarm to any shorts.
Then there is Europe and its need to get its currency accepted. The euro is not in tangible form until January next. It looks almost certain that it will have a gold coin issued, by one, or more of the EU countries.
This would do two things. It would strengthen the Euro, and stimulate gold coin collection.
The WGC are in the process of launching a big marketing campaign to put gold on everyone's lips for jewellery and fashion.
There is much my friend to give hope. No guarantees. But I believe it is a safe bet that gold will LIVE! And in the not too distant future, we will see sins of that life.
You slammed me earlier re my remark about Rothschild. Well, I was clearly not claiming that I was, or wished to be, one of that family. My remark was to counter your remark that you have never heard of anyone becoming rich from gold. They started from poor to trading in coins, mostly gold, as that was the only real money, especially to a Jew. The banking business came from a later generation. But there are many others, even today.
True, the Jewish people have a network, that once they prove themselves as good business men, or have a good idea, gives them access to easy financing.
The biggest mistake you made, as so many of us did, was that you got the timing wrong. Gold was on a down trend for some vey specific reasons. A look at the charts even a few years ago would have shown that. This in the same way that many got their timing wrong with the Nasdaq - in fact, the stock markets in general. TTT - timing, trend, and thrust (volume).
There is a period before the tide turns when it appears to have no definite direction. It is only because we KNOW the tide always goes out again, that we are not fooled. Gold is at that point now - between ebb and flow. BELIEVE! Hold some to keep a feel for the market, but look at other options too. No one asks you to sell your soul to gold.
Footnote:
One of the biggest diamond ever found in South Africa, was found by a poor prospector. He had worked hard for years and years, but found little or nothing. He decided he would give up and prepared himelf, to the happiness of his wife, to making it the last week. On almost the last day, he hit pay dirt and came home with one of the largest diamonds ever found.
John Doe
(1/25/2001; 14:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46451)
The Onion's take on CA blackout
http://www.theonion.com/onion3702/wdyt_3702.html
*** fake news, for entertainment purposes only ***
Tree in the Forest
(1/25/2001; 14:23:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46450)
Revelation
Sir, you are starting to sound a lot like the old Radio Moscow propaganda machine: all sympathetic and commiserating and then spewing out the biggest load of cr*p. If you really believe what you say, then bail out now and get on with your life. But please don't try to get the rest of these good people to follow you down the drain. I wouldn't follow Kaplan to the rest room. I honestly wish you the best but you are sounding more and more like a double agent from the cabal!
Cavan Man
(1/25/2001; 14:14:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46449)
Trail Guide on "shoes"
I never skimp on shoes or tires for that matter. In fact, Allen Edmonds is having a sale right now.
ORO
(1/25/2001; 14:04:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46448)
Howe and Lindley chart and black paper? gold
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary16.html#anchor10789
In the link above, Donald Lindley, Reg Howe's number cruncher buddy, has put together a marvelous picture of coordination between bullion bankers and the BOE on the issue of gold sales. Bankers sell time premiums, that portion of a futures or futures option contract that is sure to dissipate with time, and hedge actively in the market with the purchase of bullion (no time premium) and buy backs of the same metal contracts they had previously sold. Hedging does not always work, that is when the market is not changing values smoothly but in big steps, the Black-Scholes theory is missing one of its three main legs. Step wise moves in prices make delta hedging impossible. At these points, rather than hedge, the bankers must go to a "lender of last resort", a policy maker, that would supply credit and guarantees to allow a flooding of the markets with calls or futures, supply gold, and "talk down the market", make statements that would help lower prices.
In the chart, the BOE acquiescence in this action is made clear as gold related announcements are made to scare gold and paper gold buyers from the markets just before options expiration, when the bankers would have to pay the cash to speculators who bet against them. Some had actually moved to cash in their paper gold for the real thing. Those had to be accommodated by "someone" (a.k.a. BOE and weak willed central bankers elsewhere) to lend or sell that gold.
I have pointed out that the "Washington Agreement" had a guarantee to supply a particular quantity of gold – namely the amounts that the EU signatories had on deposit with the NY Fed (i.e. that portion that the US could grab, giving payment at an arbitrary dollar value). The gold deposited there in WWII would obviously have increased later had the US been thought to be a good fiduciary for it. The fact that the gold stores only receded, indicates that the US has not been exercising its duties as fiduciary to it, and has used this gold as its own. I like to call it "hostage gold". Black gold or not, I believe the London Gold Pool and subsequent operations anti gold operations not revealed as of yet, were using the gold – selling it to its owners. This is sort of like a store receipt being provided in return for the return of the merchandise you already paid for but only after the store had doubled prices on everything, so that in order to get the same item in the right size, you have to pay for it again.
Back to the chart.
In summer 99, gold prices are at $255-260 after the BOE comes out with 3 announcements regarding its sale of half its gold reserves and widespread fear in the gold markets that others will follow. However, buyers are coming in like crazy, buying bullion – not paper. As a result, a shortage of spot deliverable gold forms and premiums on coins join lease rates in escalating to values not seen in the recent past. Miners and hedge funds buy paper gold (futures and calls) from the banks in order to protect themselves from their short positions. Open interest on COMEX alone grows to 700,000 call and futures contracts – 70 million ounces or 2000 tonnes – COMEX is just a spec on the bullion and paper gold trading world, with OTC contracts traded privately and on London's LBMA filling in the rest being at least 10 times larger.
News of gold digging expeditions to central banks around the globe resound as gold prices remain low, but the cost of keeping them at that level (lease rates and premiums on physical) are prohibitive. The paper market had completely lost its contango, yet the bankers continued selling paper – particularly calls. Leading to the pre-Washington Agreement peak of 2000 tonnes sold on COMEX. The buildup included the sale to the public of 500 tonnes of calls at a short term strike of $260 to $270 and long term strike average of $290 in the two months prior to the agreement. Obviously, the Washington Agreement was intended by the bullion bankers to increase credibility of their claim that gold will be forthcoming, since its major market moving significance was supposed to be the assured sale of 2000 tonnes, and the commitment by the EU banks not to withdraw their gold from the market. The law of unintended consequences came into effect, and the whole deal misfired as the markets perceived that the quantities would be woefully inadequate. The price shot up.
Rather than just hedge their positions, the bankers brazenly showed up on the market with more calls, selling another 100,000 contracts – nearly another 300 tonnes. They sold till prices hit $290 just before expiration. Why $290, because physical gold holders had purchased puts in order to take profits in their metal holdings – 75,000 put contracts were sold – close to the call sales figure from that same period – 100,000 longs, 75,000 shorts purchased. On the futures side, the amounts came out to a minor drop in open interest as the public longs were offset with public shorts. The puts, purchased during the price spike at an average of 300, and the calls gave a minimum payout at $290. (I have a spreadsheet to determine minimum payout figures for call and put options for stocks that works very well in predicting the price at expiration – only problem is accounting for options issued at the last minute that are not made public till the following day). Though there are many reasons to believe the markets would maneuver to approach the minimum payout point proposition, I still hold that it is primarily a result of price manipulation by options traders from banker's trading desks.
The unwinding from that point came as the Fed supplied the 400 tonnes per year for the Washington Agreement's fulfillment to the BIS gold sales system from that point on. The US export data show just that quantity – less the BOE sales.
Prices have come down since the price spike as the open interest dwindled with a gold sale announcement and/or a gold sale by the BOE preceding each options expiry when prices had risen. Furthermore, during this period, minor central banks around the world were cajoled, threatened and pushed into leasing or selling their gold. Deposit holders in major banks – particularly in Europe – reported that their bankers sold allocated metal accounts of silver and gold without authorization, and were completely unrepentant and unwilling to comply with demands for restitution and replacement. The banks are obviously expecting full support from their official sectors.
The situation continues to get hairy as the mad scramble to obtain gold in fulfillment of impossible delivery obligations is only exceeded in intensity with the loss of confidence in the gold pricing and delivery systems by investors who see no further reason to buy paper gold or to hold gold accounts.
The bearing of black gold:
By my rough reckoning of the still not quite proven black gold market, private gold deposits are being tapped – probably unbeknownst to the owners - at a rate of further thousands of tonnes per year. The withdrawal of black gold from the banking system is lowering reserves – which is what the central bank official holdings are under this scenario. I should point out that in typical bank fashion, the offer made to the Marcos group was of up to $983 billion in dollar loans payable with the gold, that quantity being discussed amounting to 62,000 tonnes. In toto, the quantities discussed in D Guyatt's documentation seem to be in excess of 1 1/4 million tonnes delivered since 1954, and possibly beginning prior to that, with deposits within the US standing at 300,000 tonnes as of 1989 (190,000 accounted). The date provided for initial contact with the banking community regarding initiation of marketing of Marcos’ alleged discoveries during the martial law period was 1980 – the peak of the gold market. This would have been AFTER the bulk of the gold was deposited in banks across the continents in the period leading to the marketing initiative. The surprise is not that gold prices dropped as a result of putting such historically enormous amounts to market, the surprising issue is that the markets declined on the rumor by only 50%, and upon the "news" of the deal concluded in 1983-4 had prices go back up.
The point of the Marcos gold story is multifaceted, but regarding the market's ability to absorb gold, there is the implication that in absorbing over half a million tonnes in the period 1954 to 1971, the markets had not had enough, and the dollar was forced off the gold standard. Only upon resumption of the gold flow in 1980 was the dollar POG parabolic advance halted. The offer, as made, for 8% T-bonds redeemable in gold at a later date indicated at the then $442 price that for the privileged central banks and "VIPs", put the dollar de-facto (assuming these are facts) back onto a gold standard at a conversion rate of $442 per 20 year 8% zero coupon T bond, thus dictating a gold price of $442 * [(1 + i) / (1.08)]^20, which is about $266 at current interest rates (i). (The active bond duration for this relationship could vary over time, as would the actual currency dictating the POG – as other central banks could have made such deals). In the period since the gold sale discussions, the central banks of the world had increased their treasury holdings to $1.2 trillion, and have not added (or sold) any substantial amounts since 1997, when treasury accumulation abruptly came to a halt.
The POG in this case was to become a derivative of treasury interest rates, which slid in the period when interest rates on long bonds slid as well. This corresponds to a take-off in OTC paper gold issues volumes and the steep slide in (paper) POG, and marks the first success in the US government running a positive cash flow (if not quite positive books) since WWII. As Bill Buckler said, "they cut up America's credit card" with the central banks. Could this be because the US ran out of documented gold to back its treasury debt, which had to both be reduced from that point on and the private market had to substitute for the "missing" gold with its own issues of paper gold to back treasury paper sales? Could the interest hike by the Fed in April (?) 1997 and the simultaneous pulling of the rug from under Japanese and other Asian banks by imposition of the international capital adequacy requirements been part of the attempt to reel back the gold bonds? Could the expiration of the Washington Agreement have anything to do with the at the maturity of the first of these imaginary (or real?) bonds in 2004.
Indications from D Guyatt's documentation is that the banks of the US and other countries had lent out the gold – a purported Citi 110,000 tonne account was deemed empty of gold during a probe, and a further 7500 tonne account at Dresdner was on loan at 80%. As is the norm, banks had overleveraged, as had the government. Same old story again. 1929 in the US all over again, a repeat of pre-WWI European monetary conditions, a repeat of the founding of the BOE and the South Seas bubble to put away England's debts, a repeat of the John Law's Banque Royale and the Mississippi bubble to pay the deceased Sun King's debts from an empty treasury. Looks like the Marcos gold story has not changed the propensity of desperate governments to embrace far fetched financial schemes to cover their debts by leverage and subsequent debasement of a currency redeemable in gold to the point of breaking the promise of redeemability. With or without the Marcos gold, the picture remains the same.
Peter Asher
(1/25/2001; 13:50:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46447)
‘Flation Stats
By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - Americans' wages and benefits rose
solidly in the fourth quarter, wrapping up a year that posted the
biggest annual gain in compensation costs since 1991.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that its employment
cost index, a closely watched gauge of inflation, rose a
seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent in the last three months of 2000,
down from a 0.9 percent rise in the third quarter. That reflected
a job market that cooled late in the year from its earlier red-hot
state.
A second report Thursday showed that sales of existing homes
slipped by 7.4 percent in December to an annual rate of 4.87
million units, one of a series of reports showing how the
economy has weakened sharply in the past two months.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Thursday that
"as far as we can judge, we have had a very dramatic slowing
down. We are probably very close to zero (growth) at this
particular moment" in the first quarter.
Greenspan's comments were viewed as a further signal that the
Fed, which announced a surprise half-point cut in interest rates
Jan. 3, is prepared to lower rates further when it meets next
week to make sure the country does not slip into a recession.
Many economists expected fourth-quarter compensation costs to
register a 1.1 percent gain.
The wages and salaries component of the index, viewed by
economists as the best measure of changes in workers'
compensation costs, advanced by 0.7 percent in the fourth
quarter, compared with a 0.8 percent rise in the third quarter.
The cost of benefits, such as health insurance, vacations and
other perks, also moderated in the fourth quarter, rising 0.8
percent, compared with a 1.0 percent increase in the third
quarter.
For the 12 months ending December, Americans' wages and
benefits grew by 4.1 percent, the biggest increase since a 4.3
percent rise in 1991. Benefit costs led the way. Labor costs rose
last year as employers scrambling to find qualified workers
during much of the year, wooed them with higher wages and
benefits.
Last year, consumer prices as measured by the Consumer Price
Index rose 3.4 percent, suggesting that workers are posting gains
in compensation even as they pay more for higher-priced energy
products and other items.
While gains in wages and benefits are good for workers,
economists and members of the Federal Reserve watch them
closely to make sure they don't become inflationary. That was a
prime concern when the Fed was raising short-term interest
rates between June 1999 and May of 2000.
Now the Fed is worried that those rate increases may have
slowed the economy too much. Earlier this month, the Fed
unexpectedly cut interest rates by a half percentage point in an
effort to prevent the weakening economy from slipping into a
recession. Additional rate cuts are expected.
At the end of the year, there was a spate of troubling economic
news - weak manufacturing activity, low consumer confidence
low, disappointing holiday sales and slower job growth.
In December, the government reported that private payrolls
edged up by just 49,000 during the month, ending a quarter in
which monthly job creation in the private sector averaged just
84,000, the poorest showing since 1992 and just half the rate in
the first nine months of the year.
In another report, the number of Americans filing new claims for
state unemployment insurance rose last week by a seasonally
adjusted 12,000 to 316,000, suggesting that employers demand
for workers waned a bit. The increase came after a big drop in
claims - by 40,000 - the week prior.
The more stable four-week moving average of claims fell last
week to 336,000, the lowest point since Nov. 18, 2000, when
claims were at 331,250.
For the week ending Jan. 13, 37 states and territories reported
increases in jobless claims, while 16 reported decreases. The
state data lag a week behind the national figures and is not
seasonally adjusted.
California reported the biggest increase in claims, up by 11,850.
Officials blamed the rise on layoffs in the trade, service and
agriculture industries.
beesting
(1/25/2001; 13:33:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46446)
Sorry Off Topic.....Kidnapped!!
http://www.governmentchildtheft.com/ChristineStory/ChristineStory.html
Comment:
This could happen to your family if you are living in the U.S. Are we Americans prepared to protect our Gold and our Famlies with our lives???....beesting.
The Hoople
(1/25/2001; 13:31:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46445)
My inflation index
I have developed my "consumer real inflation" or CRI index. I will have my "core rate" which excludes the non-volatile fixed mortgage and car payment. Here are the components and the rate of inflation I have occurred year over year:
Food +8% (higher if you eat out more often )
Heating fuel +100%
vehicle fuel +50%
electric bill +40%
homeowner insur. +10%
health insur. +35%
phone unc
after weighting each category according to % of total budget I have arrived at a core rate of 43 % annual. This should be the index used to accurately reflect reality. Anybody claiming inflation is "benign" is either smoking their socks or only buying Taiwan toys and trinkets. Anybody else want to submit their "CRI" ?
grasshopper
(1/25/2001; 13:18:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46444)
RE: AUSPEC
My investments themes for 2001 include:
US 30 year zero coupon bonds
Eurodollars
Oil and gas exploration companies
And accumulation of companies pioneering the Powerchip industry which will reengineer electricity generation, storage and distribution. see www.powerscom.com.
All a better bet than owning gold.
Investing is as much timing as it is choosing the correct vehicle.
REVELATION
(1/25/2001; 13:16:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 46443)
PETER ASHER
Thank you, but I think you failed to see my point.
Anything with the word GOLD attached to it has
lost big. I can give you several examples of missed
opportunities in real estate, bargains on certain stocks
and even in my own business due to foolishness in
gold investments. Yes, buy gold but keep it a small percentage of your assets. Thats a fact and you ?
I'm speaking from the real world of investing not someone
who is pretending to know. All I'm trying to so is warn those who have not yet become victims.
MarkeTalk
(1/25/2001; 13:07:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46442)
Of Liberals and Limousines--Reprise
I don't know how many of you watched Nightline with Ted Koppel last night. The featured story was (again) the power crisis in California. So far it was the best television discussion of how this whole mess got started, where it stands now, and the possible outcome. In summary, there appears to be three or more disparate events which have come together at this time to form a "perfect storm." The consumer price structure was capped because one year ago California actually had a surplus of energy and lawmakers wanted to introduce competition at the wholesale level among the power generators. So the solution was to deregulate the wholesale market and for the utilities not to lock in long-term energy contracts. Secondly, the utilities sold off their power generation equipment to garner profits to make the bottom line look better. (Now who would have given them this advice? Maybe the New Yorkers a la Goldman Sachs?) Add to that the environmentalists who firstly restricted the building of new power plants and secondly got the existing plants to switch to natural gas. Now stir into the equation the increase in demand due to the computer revolution and every other electronic gizmo gadget and the previous surplus of energy turns into a deficit. Finally, the coup de grace is the tripling of natural gas prices in a scant five to six months and there you have it: a perfect energy crisis.
Some people have intimated that such events did not just sneak up on California, and that people in the know took advantage of the situation. Rebuke has been hurled at Wall Streeters who goosed the price of natural gas through options and futures to the Texas-based middlemen who held back supply from the market to force prices higher. All of this has not been lost on the elites now in office.
The final thought of Nightline was that California will run out of time and options in the next 10-14 days. That is when the utilities will "hit the wall." Interesting how President Bush has stood aloof from the whole mess. My guess is that there is some type of federal bailout in the works which will be presented at the last minute. After all, California's economy is about 25-30% of the entire U.S. economy and, if standing on its own, about the sixth largest economy in the world. My best guess: There will be a federal order for utilities west of the Mississippi to sell their surplus energy to California with payment to be guaranteed by a federal program (bond issuance, etc.). This appears to be the only workable solution because it takes years to build power plants. This solution will probably keep things together until summertime when electricity usage jumps dramatically. July appears to be the critical month in all discussions. So if you are headed to Disneyland, better get there before July's heatwave curtails your plans.
Knallgold
(1/25/2001; 13:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46441)
Timing,now lets get this straight
-BOE:last auction in march
-FOA:said watch them,when they stop their sales
-China:opens new physical Gold market in JUNE or so
-Goldshares:show accumulation
-Greenspan:officially admitted hard landing (going from 7% growth to 0% IS a hard landing)
-Dollar:back on the same level (<92euros) which brought us this hard landing
-Interest rates:going down fast in the US ,the premium to the euro rates (carry trades...)are evaporating
-inflation:you know it...
We might be closer than we never thought to have to admit.Somehow I still feel unprepared.
Buy Gold NOW,the papergold might go UP in smoke,who knows.But buy before all PHYSICAL GOLD.
REVELATION
(1/25/2001; 13:04:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46440)
Steve Kaplan known gold trader says:
Why everyone is hoping for a reccesion to move gold is
beyond me becuase demand would fall off and so
goes the price of gold possibly. This is not carved out in
stone but I think Steve knows more than we do. Panda
Gold on this forum states that the USA titanic sinks into economic turmoil GOLD will be our life rafts. Maybe or
maybe not but one thing is clear GOLD can't rally for
anything.
Peter Asher
(1/25/2001; 13:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46439)
REVELATION (01/24/01; 21:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46383
You wrote "Yes, in 9/99 I made close to $80,000 on gold stocks sold them and bought back in. Now look at it. It's pathetic, and the market won't budge an inch.........." Permit me to translate from complainese to acu-speak. "the market won't budge" becomes, "there is a dearth of "bigger fools."
Every dollar gained by wealth transfer must be put into the gainer's account by someone else. There is no ‘Great cash-in desk up in the sky' where one can tender their paper investments for reimbursement. So, you are actually saying "It's pathetic" that no-one will give you some unearned purchasing power when you are wishing for it.
For every dime won there must be a contributor who may or may not be subsequently contributed too. Ergo, for the game to function there must be both winners and losers. Put in terms of the punch line to an ancient joke about the absence of women in the Klondike: "it was your turn in the barrel."
REVELATION
(1/25/2001; 12:49:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46438)
ENERGY COULD BE THE CATALYST FOR GOLD ! Hmm
For those banking on GOLD including myself if GOLD
doesn't move soon then I think gold investors are doomed
for huge losses unless the dollar falls apart. So far the
glue is holding up very well and golds future is nil at
this point. With the economy slowing energy will be
less and less used. Sorry, but I'm beginning to feel
like gold investors are "had". If gold can't stage a rally
soon I'm afraid the golden goose is going to leave us
high and dry. Use what ever senerios and bullish arguments
you like but gold is sitting there and trending down. Very sad indeed for us goldbugs. With gold not responding
to anything with the word crisis attached to it is extremely
bearish. We need to wait a few more weeks and then
we might know if gold is going to lay down and die.
So far it's a huge disappointment and GATA has no
effect at all on gold. Greenspan must be rolling over laughing in his chair. Proclaiming lawsuit belongs
with episodes like the 3 stooges. GATA has proved
that only one thing but to take donations and while
we in the wings watch gold go down in the face of
bullish statements coming from GATA for 2 years now.
Who's kidding who !!!! Believe me Greenspan will keep
on laughing while goldbugs suffer. They have the gold
and they make the rules for now. Lets hope our day comes
but it looks very dismal. Don't bank on it.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(1/25/2001; 12:44:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46437)
Grasshopper
Do yourself a favor and sell all your physical gold now. If you honestly see the POG falling to $190 after 2003, sell now. Pursuing a course contrary to ones head and heart only serves to rob oneself of sleep and purpose. History always repeats itself because of the stupidity and vanity of man, that we can always count upon. Gold deflation in respect to fiat currency has never been borne out by history. NEVER. History shows the worst scenario to be lived through will be a flat performance that serves to insure ones wealth, while buying time for the paper fraud to end.
Everything else is a crapshoot.
White Hills
(1/25/2001; 12:34:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46436)
Grasshopper #46429
Grasshopper--- I will speak for myself as the others who frequent this forum may not agree. I hold Gold not as an investment that I use to create more wealth but to preserve my wealth. In the end all the profits that you have made in your investments must be held in paper form of some kind, stock,bonds, motgages, currency, ect.None of these kinds of asset preservation can survive the coming dollar crash without losing all or much of their value. I suggest you read on and the one place you can find the answers is in this forum. As for FOA, Another, Trail Guide they need no defense as the truth is coming out as they have predicted. White Hills
Old Yeller
(1/25/2001; 12:19:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46435)
USAGOLD #46426
Mr.Kosares,thank you for posting your daily commentary today on the general forum.I always value your thoughts on the present conditions and your insights into the future.
As touched upon many times here at the forum,the California situation is probably a prototype,dry run or a prelude to the big show.It is very interesting watching the various players act out their roles in a suddenly hot issue that has been festering in the background for years(sounds familiar).Who will act responsibly and with authority for the greater good of all conflicting interests?On who's doorstep will the blame be laid?Lastly, who is going to end up "holding the bag"?
If and when the virtual Hoover Dam(sticking with the electricity theme)of worldwide perception of the dollar's strength and lasting value breaks and the dollar debt obligations burst forth,today's energy crisis may give us clues to actions taken in the next sudden and unexpected crisis.
Peter Asher
(1/25/2001; 12:03:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46434)
Turbohawg, this ones for us.
Stranger, Randy; Comments?
Intel's Idea to Spur
Demand: Big Price Cuts
By Caroline Humer
Senior Writer
1/25/01 1:12 PM ET
Semiconductor companies preparing for a rough first half of the
year, and an uncertain second half, now have something new to
factor in. Giant microprocessor maker Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) is
gearing up to lower prices on its Pentium 4, Pentium III and Celeron
chips more than analysts were expecting.
Wall Street is bracing for Intel to lower
prices on chips by more than 40% this
weekend, as the chipmaker tries to cut
prices enough to stimulate demand. Most
of Intel's chips go into personal
computers, so the lower the chip price, the
less the computer makers charge for the
final product. In turn, the fewer dollars
consumers have to shell out, the more
likely they'll be to pull out their
checkbooks. Lately consumers --
including the ones in charge of technology
spending at large companies -- have been keeping their hands in
their pockets when it comes to PCs.
Lowering prices itself isn't unusual in the chip world. Intel and other
chipmakers cut prices on a regular basis as the technology
improves and they introduce faster, smaller products. And any price
cuts that Intel makes this weekend already are factored into the
company's financial guidance -- Intel said during its Jan. 16
conference call to expect revenue to fall about 15% in the first
quarter from the fourth quarter.
Whether these price cuts are deep enough to spur demand or
retain market share may depend on how competitor Advanced
Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE) reacts.
"We'll have to see if pricing in general just gets a lot more
aggressive going forward between AMD and Intel. Right now there
hasn't been a price war, but it doesn't mean that going forward one
may not end up developing, especially as both are trying to get their
fair share of a market that's not growing all that rapidly right now,"
says Dan Niles, an analyst at Lehman Brothers, which hasn't done
any underwriting for either company.
An Intel spokesman declined to comment on the price cuts, which
were first reported by CNet. Intel price changes typically go into
effect on Sunday.
The outlook for chip growth in 2001 has been lowered several times
in the last few months and is now anywhere from 7% to 15%. Intel
and other chip companies have declined to forecast 2001 revenue,
citing the uncertain economic climate and already too-high
inventories along the supply chain.
At the same time, AMD is trying to take on some markets that Intel
has dominated, such as the corporate market. It also has
introduced so-called value chips, or chips that are both faster and
cheaper than Intel's. For instance, AMD's top of the line Duron
850-megahertz chip lists for $149. Intel's 766-megahertz Celeron
value chip lists for $155. AMD last lowered prices on Jan. 8, while
Intel's most recent official cut occurred on Dec. 10.
An AMD spokeswoman said the company's pricing depends on
market conditions.
Among the biggest cuts Lehman expects is in Intel's two
top-of-the-line chips. For instance, the 1-gigahertz Pentium III is
being slashed to $270 from $465, and the 1.5-gigahertz Pentium 4
is headed to $650 from $819. AMD's top-of-the-line 1.2-gigahertz
Athlon goes for $363.
auspec
(1/25/2001; 11:56:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46433)
grasshopper
You wrote: "One question: is this mysterious character ANOTHER or FRIEND of ANOTHER the owner of this website?"END
In all honesty, I'm sure all of us have at one time or Another wondered about this, partly because that's the way a healthy and discerning mind thinks. The answer is emphatically NO! The surgery was totally successful and they are now 3 separate individuals.
Would you be so kind as to give a clue about where you currently believe money should be invested/saved? I am a bit surprised that so much thought and attention is payed to the few that leave after being burned. People come, people go, there are many roads to success/failure. Are we so insecure about our market that we have to justify it so mightily? Looks like capitulation to this dolt and would like to see much more of it. Who wouldn't like to go back to 1992 and take current knowledge with them? That's the opportunity I see just ahead. Many lessons were learned the hard way and want another chance to "play it again". It is all just CYCLES and the emotions that go alongside are quite predictable, especially at the extremes.
Gotta admire your fortitude in naming yourself grasshopper. Best to you.
Trurl
(1/25/2001; 11:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46432)
Oh look, they've invented a debt bomb
http://www.beyond2000.com/news/Jan_01/story_973.html
This article details a innovation of a 155mm howitzer shell which has a payload of an EMP generator. To quote,:
The EMP round will be fired in the standard way, but as it approaches its destination, a small explosive charge will jettison its protective jacket. Aerials will then spring out and the pulse package will squirt out a burst of radiation, enough to fry unprotected electronic systems in its footprint. This burst will last fractions of a second and after that the shell too is dead. Underneath, the opposition's radios, weapon guidance systems, computers, mobile phones, power grid and TV stations will be nothing more than scrap silicon, leaving them unable to co-ordinate military or civilian activity.
So if you have digital debt, it might be wiped out...
Though, if all you have is digital wealth, including digital promises of PMs, that might be lost also.
Got gold? The physical EMP proof kind?
Peter Asher
(1/25/2001; 11:33:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 46431)
Photo of redecorated Airforce-1
IMAP://mail.cwiservices.com?fetch>UID>/INBOX>268604202&part=1.2.1.2
Good Imagery, sets the tone for the coming days.
Lafisrap
(1/25/2001; 11:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46430)
Inflation/Deflation
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=topnews&Repository=USTOPNEWS_REP&RepositoryStoryID=%2Fnews%2FIDS%2FUsTopNews%2FNEWS-ECONOMY-GREENSPAN-DC_NEW.XML
Some people say inflation is quickly increasing; some say otherwise. I do not think it prudent to somehow construe both views as being accurate.
From the link above:
*****
"As far as we can judge, we have had a very
dramatic slowing down and indeed we are
probably very close to zero at this particular
moment," Greenspan told the Senate Budget Committee
when asked if the U.S. economy is in a recession.
Further, Greenspan said inflation pressures
were "exceptionally well contained."
*****
grasshopper
(1/25/2001; 11:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46429)
RE: Revelation
I have invested in and observed the gold market since around 1985. I agree 110% with the person that posts as REVELATION.
In finance there exists a real principle known as "the opportunity cost of money". In short what that means is while your money is tied up in an investment today what is it costing in future dollars.
At this stage even if gold were to mount a significant bull market I more than likely will lose big time with my gold stock & physical gold.
The opportunity lost because of this investment is staggering. I have missed so many opportunities since investing in the gold market that I have basically written off my gold investments and started anew.
Where money is made is in assets that fluctuate in value over time. That's it.
Filling your time with witty posts on USAGOLD or getting philosophical or religious about this market or any other market isn't going to make you a dime.
You would make more money driving a truck for minimum wage.
For the record I see gold going to $190 - $210 an ounce and not before the end of 2003.
But look at the bright side, you will all be expert at waxing and waning about the gold market.
One question: is this mysterious character ANOTHER or FRIEND of ANOTHER the owner of this website?
Gold Trail Update
(1/25/2001; 10:00:14MDT - Msg ID:46428)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
REVELATION
(1/25/2001; 9:50:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46427)
SIMPLY ME / PANDA GOLD
I do agree with your analysis "simply me" in favor of
physical gold. But remember you can't pay your bills with it
and it's only for insurance. When in need of cash because
of job loss or loss of income for your everyday needs and
you have not built up a good war chest to weather the
storm many goldbugs will be selling their gold I'm afraid
at fire sale prices before gold takes off. So it's important
to remember gold may not take off only at a bottom of an
economic contraction thats so severe leaving us goldbugs
broke only to sell our gold. I hope that is not the case
but it is a real possiblity.
"Panda gold" and the Titanic what makes us so sure we
will escape the carnage with gold. The way things are going I don't put alot of my faith in gold right now. If things
get bad enough gold could drop and then what. The one
thing positive for gold right now is a possible small rally
and then it may keep going down with bad economic
conditions. Like I have said the explosion in the price of
gold might be delayed much longer than we are willing to admit. Like me and others have made big bets on gold and lost. Well, not lost yet because I haven't sold but in todays
markets it's very ugly. Gold still has not proved itself as a
good hedge but I hope like others soon. But I found hoping
and wishing for better days is endless. Today we are worse
off than anytime in history as gold investors. Do I have to
say more.
USAGOLD
(1/25/2001; 9:41:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46426)
Today's Commentary & Review
Gold quietly warmed its engine on the tarmac this morning while the financial world awaited Congressional testimony
from Alan Greenspan today and the rate setting Fed Open Market Committee meeting early next week. In a surprise, Greenspan hinted yesterday that he would look favorably upon the Bush tax cut proposition. Wall Street is hoping for some icing on the cake in the form of a rate cut early on top of the tax cut. Whether or not Gradualist Greenspan will move as quickly as Wall Street would like remains to be seen.
On the one hand Fed policy will be pushed by the growing
worldwide energy crisis (which calls for lowering interest
rates). On the other, it must be mindful the inflationary push resulting from that very same energy crisis. Mr. Greenspan, pole in hand, steps out once again on the tightrope with all the world watching.
Gold continued to act in a subdued fashion in Asia due to the Lunar New Year holidays and Europe was quiet with UBS/Warburg reporting one large European investment bank a major buyer. The quiet mode carried over to New York though we did open higher. The stronger dollar has also acted against gold in the short term. We could see some changes in the gold trend today and tomorrow as the gold market assesses Mr. Greenspan's remarks and prepares for Asia's return on Monday.
Some will see Greenspan's acquiescence to the Bush administration on tax cuts as inflationary and thus bullish for gold in the medium to long term. Already we have seen massive money creation from the Fed over the past several months. Combining tax cuts and rate cuts could become an inflationary quicklime. Throw a little water on the volatile mixture in the form of an international energy crisis and the whole thing could explode in flames.
I would caution gold owners and would be gold owners not to
dismiss the California crisis as just another, run of the mill, press generated scare. There are deep systemic risks involved here that are not likely to disappear with the wave of the hand. In California, you have right in the United States the sorts of problems that will be occurring all over the globe as energy costs ratchet up inexorably. I read this morning the reports of San Antonio families (Thanks Black Blade at the Forum) demonstrating before city hall. They are faced in some cases with a quadrupling of their utility bills and have to make a decision between eating and paying their gas bill. What we need to understand is that as energy costs escalate this sort of thing is going on all over the world, not just in San Antonio.
For nation states, particularly heavily indebted third world
countries, the choice takes on a different twist. They will be deciding whether they should pay their energy bills or principle and interest on their debts to the international banks. That's how the energy crisis becomes a systemic crisis. (And President Bush has already hinted that a bailout of California is not in the cards. One would have to assume that philosophical position is aimed at the banking sector.)
We are often in the vanguard here trumpeting the call, and we would caution all that the deepening energy crisis is real, the risks to the system are real, and gold ownership remains the most viable defense against those systemic risks. One wonders if Mr. Greenspan will address these problems in his testimony today. More tomorrow if warranted, but on that somber note this could be it for the week. This might be a good weekend to mull this over. Those in California and the West are already beginning to sense that this isn't your run of the mill crisis. As the facts come out, we may find the problem runs deep and well beyond the confines of the California border in all directions. MK
REVELATION
(1/25/2001; 9:24:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46425)
STEVE H. / TOPAZ & ALL
Thank you for your replies. What I thought was a sure
thing became my worst nightmare. Just my opinion but
anyone considering investing in GOLD should be very
cautious not to over extend themselves more than 20%
of their net worth. I feel gold will eventually take off but
between now and then things could be very ugly for
gold investors especially with mining stocks. Thats why
I wish my portfolio was all physical gold. I am not so sure
mining stocks will be there to take advantage of a gold
bull market when it finally does come into play. So anyone
out there be careful and don't over play gold investments.
No one knows the hour or day gold goes up and between
now and then you could get taken out of the market. Loss
of job, income etc. anything can happen between now
and then. Although a rally seems emanate very soon it
might be an opportunity to sell into or especially unload
mining stocks and buy physical. FOA's senerio of paper
gold maybe crushed is very real and I believe he knows
the trail very well. I am in the same camp as FOA "This
new gold market is not as before". The powers will do
everything possible to crush the gold bulls and physical
gold is key I believe and lots of staying power. IMHO
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 9:24:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46424)
Randy at the Tower, and Revelation
SORRY BUT A VERY IMPORTANT WORD WAS SOMEHOW OMITTED FROM THE PREVIOUS POSTING
The power of the written word, and other musings
" It is well enough that the people of the nation do not understand the banking and monetary system for, if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning"
(Henry Ford)
It was Disraeli , I believe,– Britains only Jewish prime minister that had said, in the previous century, the same thing about governments.
The ‘system’ as operated by the ‘establishment’ which includes the monetary system, and government, has only been able to exist because the vast majority of people either don't know, don't care to know, don't believe when they are told, or don't want to believe.
This state of affairs has existed since the first, and only true form of democracy established in Athens, many centuries ago, collapsed. And, even in those days, if you spoke out against the establishment from a position that carried an air of authority, you were invited to a hemlock tasting – your first, and last.
Revelation (and how many others) has certainly been influenced by Bernstein's book, which shows you the power of the printed word. As Napoleon once said (that man said so many things, in French of course)), "I would rather face ten thousand bayonets than a writer's pen.
This is why you will NEVER, repeat, NEVER, see the truth in published book form. You would never get a printer who would dare print it. And, any writer who knew the truth would not risk his neck trying to get it published. (though one or two have tried and met premature deaths).
( Let me inject here, that it is far too complex an issue to know the full truth, and would take too long to tell so that people could understand and comprehend, if you did)
This is why I have tried to get across that it is sufficient to know all is not what we are led to believe, and that we can really do nothing about it. There is no KNOWN cure,
unless you could carry out mass hypnosis treatment on mankind and change human nature. completely.
So, take Mr Bernstein's main theme with a pinch of salt. As Randy says, those with a particular agenda have probably backed him to write it. This is true, also, of most of these so-called ‘expose’ writers.
Do you think you could find a book, which told you the full truth of the Masons, though, a number of books on the bookshelves purport to do so? No way, even those on the many lower echelons of this secret society don't know what goes on in the all-high echelon. They think they do, they believe they do, just as we ‘think’ we know, and many on the lower rung of the political ladder, think they know, what really goes on in the upper echelons of government.
Remember, that it is the excellent job of the network that is in place to keep us perplexed, confused, and in the dark, that it exists, and has existed through time. Do you think ‘spin’ is a political device of the 20th or 21st century?
One thing, I will leave you with in this posting. ‘TPTB’ are NOT anti gold. Quite the opposite. They understand it, and revere it far more than you or I. And as Shakespeare said -’ ai, and that's the rub’. Once again everyone - ‘THEY’ ARE NOT ANTI-GOLD. (hope that sinks in) THEY ARE JUST ANTI-YOU (AND ME) BEING IN THE ‘GOLD CLUB’.
All you need to join is own some of that precious (even at these prices)metal. Want to move up the ladder? Own some more. Don't worry they will never let you buy enough to join the exalted masters - unless you qualify with other criteria.
Footnote
It is said that gold will only regain its lustre (though it never really loses it) if there was a world economic disaster of very serious proportions.
Without, hopefully, sounding too pessimistic, every day brings the possibility nearer to a probability.
Like the Titanic continued to head for the iceberg after evasive action had been taken, so the evasive measures like interest rate, and tax reductions take time to work through the economy.
Remember, it was not a head on collision with the iceberg that sank the 'unsinkable', just a glancing blow to the side.
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 9:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46423)
Randy at the Tower, and Revelation
The power of the written word, and other musings
" It is well enough that the people of the nation do not understand the banking and monetary system for, if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning"
(Henry Ford)
It was Disraeli , I believe,– Britains only Jewish prime minister that had said, in the previous century, the same thing about governments.
The ‘system’ as operated by the ‘establishment’ which includes the monetary system, and government, has only been able to exist because the vast majority of people either don't know, don't care to know, don't believe when they are told, or don't want to believe.
This state of affairs has existed since the first, and only true form of democracy established in Athens, many centuries ago, collapsed. And, even in those days, if you spoke out against the establishment from a position that carried an air of authority, you were invited to a hemlock tasting – your first, and last.
Revelation (and how many others) has certainly been influenced by Bernstein's book, which shows you the power of the printed word. As Napoleon once said (that man said so many things, in French of course)), "I would rather face ten thousand bayonets than a writer's pen.
This is why you will NEVER, repeat, NEVER, see the truth in published book form. You would never get a printer who would dare print it. And, any writer who knew the truth would not risk his neck trying to get it published.
( Let me inject here, that it is far too complex an issue to know the full truth, and would take too long to tell so that people could understand and comprehend, if you did)
This is why I have tried to get across that it is sufficient to know all is not what we are led to believe, and that we can really do nothing about it. There is no KNOWN cure,
unless you could carry out mass hypnosis treatment on mankind and change human nature. completely.
So, take Mr Bernstein's main theme with a pinch of salt. As Randy says, those with a particular agenda have probably backed him to write it. This is true, also, of most of these so-called ‘expose’ writers.
Do you think you could find a book, which told you the full truth of the Though, a number of books on the bookshelves purport to do so. No way, even those on the many lower echelons of this secret society don't know what goes on in the all-high echelon. They think they do, they believe they do, just as we ‘think’ we know, and many on the lower rung of the political ladder, think they know, what really goes on in the upper echelons of government.
Remember, that it is the excellent job of the network that is in place to keep us perplexed, confused, and in the dark, that it exists, and has existed through time. Do you think ‘spin’ is a political device of the 20th or 21st century?
One thing, I will leave you with in this posting. ‘TPTB’ are NOT anti gold. Quite the opposite. They understand it, and revere it far more than you or I. And as Shakespeare said -’ ai, and that's the rub’. Once again everyone - ‘THEY’ ARE NOT ANTI-GOLD. (hope that sinks in) THEY ARE JUST ANTI-YOU (AND ME) BEING IN THE ‘GOLD CLUB’.
All you need to join is own some of that precious (even at these prices)metal. Want to move up the ladder? Own some more. Don't worry they will never let you buy enough to join the exalted masters - unless you qualify with other criteria.
Footnote
It is said that gold will only regain its lustre (though it never really loses it) if there was a world economic disaster of very serious proportions.
Without, hopefully, sounding too pessimistic, every day brings the possibility nearer to a probability.
Like the Titanic continued to head for the iceberg after evasive action had been taken, so the evasive measures like interest rate, and tax reductions take time to work through the economy.
Remember, it was not a head on collision with the iceberg that sank the 'unsinkable', just a glancing blow to the side.
Orville Goldenbacher
(1/25/2001; 9:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46422)
ThaiGold: here is a nice quote......
http://www.infovlad.net/library/committee_300/com305.htm
"The BIS operates on gangster lines. If a country will not submit to asset-stripping by the IMF, then it says in effect, "Right, then we will break you by means of the huge cache of narco-dollars we are holding." It is easy to understand why gold was demonetized and substituted with the paper "dollar" as the world's reserve currency. It is not as easy to blackmail a country holding gold reserves as it is one having its reserves in paper dollars."
OG
Simply Me
(1/25/2001; 9:06:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46421)
Revelation
Your post......
REVELATION (01/24/01; 22:01:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46386)
TO poster : SIMPLY ME
You are then hoping for hyperinflation just what
everyone needs. You should read Peter Bernsteins
book " THE POWER OF GOLD".......
My response........
Do you base all your investing decisions on one book? No wonder you're in trouble. I'm not hoping for hyperinflation, but it's not hard to forcast a downturn in the economy when you look around at the world right now. For instance, look at the energy crunch you're experiencing right now. It's spreading...Texas, Colorado, who's next? Are you old enough to remember what an energy crunch did to the US economy in the 70's? Yes, we have Greenspan still trying to engineer that soft landing instead of Volker tightening the noose. But soft landing or not, it's still going to be a landing. And if Greenspan cuts rates another 1/2 percent this month, I'd start looking for that on-coming train that he's signalling.
Another post of yours.....
REVELATION (01/24/01; 21:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46383)
R. POWELL
Yes, in 9/99 I made close to $80,000 on gold stocks sold
them and bought back in. Now look at it. It's pathetic, and
the market won't budge an inch...........
In the last 3 weeks fortunes have been made just buying some well known stocks...............
Also being eyeing LOR stock in the last week and almost sold my gold stocks to buy into it. Well sir that stock has almost doubled since and the fact remains Gold is losing big. Gold is sitting at all time lows and can't even stage a small rally.
My reaction......
Well, there's your problem! You're placing bets on a crooked shell game! Since 1998 picking stocks has been like trying to pick the shell the pea is under. And gold stocks are just one of the shells. Buy some physical gold and grab the pea this time instead of just betting on the shell.
simply me
Orville Goldenbacher
(1/25/2001; 8:46:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46420)
Committee of 300@ThaiGold, am i on the right track, Sir?
http://www.infovlad.net/library/committee_300/com305.htm
"It took a lot of research on my part to link the price of gold to the price of opium. I used to tell anyone who would listen, "If you want to know the price of gold find out what the price of a pound or a kilo of opium is in Hong Kong." To my critics I answered, "Take a look at what happened in 1977, a critical year for gold." The Bank of China shocked the gold pundits, and those clever forecasters who are to be found in great numbers in America, by suddenly and without warning, dumping 80 tons of gold on the market."
"That depressed the price of gold in a big hurry. All the experts could say was, "We never knew China had that much gold where could it have come from?" It came from the gold which is paid to China in the Hong Kong Gold Market for large purchases of opium. The current policy of the Chinese government toward England is the same as it was in the 18th and 19th centuries. The Chinese economy, tied to the economy of Hong Kong--and I don't mean television sets, textiles, radios, watches, pirated cassette and video tapes--I mean opium/heroin--would take a terrible beating if it were not for the opium trade it shares with Britain. The BEIC is gone but the descendants of the Council of 300 linger on in the membership of the Committee of 300.
The oldest of the oligarchical British families who were leaders in the opium trade for the past 200 years are still in it today. Take the Mathesons, for instance. This "noble" family is one of the pillars of the opium trade. When things looked a bit shaky a few years ago, the Mathesons stepped in and gave China a loan of $300 million for real estate investment. Actually it was billed as a "joint venture between the People's Republic of China and the Matheson Bank." When researching India Office papers of the 1700's I came across the name of Matheson, and it kept on cropping up everywhere--London, Peking, Dubai, Hong Kong, wherever heroin and opium are mentioned."
OG
DaveC
(1/25/2001; 8:43:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46419)
Phelps Dodge Cutting Back On Copper Deliveries
Looks like Hydrocarbon Man is having more trouble than he can handle.
Go East Young Energy Problem!
PHOENIX, Jan. 25 /PRNewswire/ -- Phelps Dodge Corporation (NYSE: PD) today announced that it will notify all 2,350 employees of its Chino and Tyrone, N.M., and Sierrita, Ariz., operations of the possibility of production curtailments. The company attributes high energy-related costs as the primary threat to continuing production at the New Mexico facilities, and a combination of low molybdenum prices and high energy costs as the reason for notification of Sierrita employees.
Phelps Dodge Chairman, President and CEO J. Steven Whisler, said: "The electricity crisis in California, and its impact on energy prices, had a significant impact on our fourth quarter 2000 results, with our U.S. electricity, diesel fuel and natural gas costs 65 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 1999. Our Chino, Tyrone and Sierrita operations are the most energy-cost sensitive in the Phelps Dodge portfolio. After a review of the near-term market outlook for energy prices and a thorough analysis of the molybdenum market, we believe it necessary to notify our employees that we may not be able to maintain production cost-effectively at the Chino, Tyrone or Sierrita operations. The situation remains fluid and we have not reached final decisions about curtailments at any of these facilities.
"Until the California power crisis is resolved its negative impact on industrial facilities in surrounding states, including our New Mexico and Arizona operations, will be huge in terms of additional plant closings and employee layoffs. In the meantime, Phelps Dodge will continue to work aggressively, diligently and creatively to pursue every opportunity to minimize the impact of these extraordinary circumstances on our businesses and our employees."
Employees will receive Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act letters by mail this week advising them that temporary production curtailments could become effective following a legally required, 60-day notification period. The unions which represent some of the employees at Chino also will receive WARN Act notices this week.
The company will closely monitor the energy and molybdenum markets throughout the 60-day period to determine whether curtailment actions may be necessary at any of the three facilities. No details about possible production curtailments will be provided unless final decisions to curtail production have been made by the company.
In 2000, Chino Mines Company produced 271 million pounds of copper through its workforce of about 990 people. Copper production at Phelps Dodge Tyrone, Inc. was 159 million pounds in 2000; the operation employs a full-time workforce of nearly 620 people. Phelps Dodge Sierrita, Inc. produced 245 million pounds of copper and 22 million pounds of molybdenum in 2000, and employs approximately 740 full-time employees.
Phelps Dodge Corporation is the world's second largest producer of copper. The company also is the world's largest producer of continuous-cast copper rod and molybdenum, and is among the largest producers of carbon black and magnet wire. Phelps Dodge has operations and investments in mines and manufacturing facilities in 27 countries and employs approximately 15,500 people worldwide.
auspec
(1/25/2001; 8:10:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46418)
Pandagold
I hope I didn't come across as any form of approval of George Soros and any tactics that were used in dollar hegemony wars, as that is certainly not the case. Free markets can be used as punishment for govt folly in a just manner, but there are certainly acts of piracy that abuse free market systems as well. Am well aware of the enslavement of entire countries via current fiat system. Let me state categorically: what govts are doing with the gold market is pure folly and will be proven so sooner or later.
Pandagold
(1/25/2001; 7:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 46417)
auspec; Randy
What Soros says, and does, like so many of his ilk are two different things. As I have pointed out before. He is careful not to try and 'punish' the US government - the greatest offenders of all. Dogs dont't sh*t on their own doorstep.
It it was the voluntary handing in of gold to their government by the Koreans that helped save the Korean economy following the Soros, and gang, inflicted so called 'punishment'.
What were these Asian nations doing but following US taught
methods of debt exploitation. Where they ran foul was trying to keep the US based but otherwise international economic gangsters out.
I will repeat this often. TPTB are NOT anti-gold,, they revere it (and fear it) they are just anti-you (me) being in the 'gold club'
Christopher
(1/25/2001; 7:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46416)
Did you catch this, Ladies and Gentlemen?
Randy @the tower #46414
I am slow, no doubt about it, but i did catch this one thing shining brightly in Randy's exerpt noted in his message above.
Snip-"I didn't have anything, that is why I sold my gold necklace to buy essentials. I bought things like coconut oil, soap and a paddy field. Once I have sold the rice, I may be able to buy back my gold with the profits."-unsnip
This poor lady said "I may be able to buy back my gold with the PROFITS."
The profits.
The profits?
Does that mean she gets her gold back and still gets to keep her paddy?
And all in trade for a few december Gold calls that she had fashioned into a paper necklace and wore around her neck, right Sir Revelation?
(No disrespect intended, Sir)
Christopher
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/25/2001; 7:10:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46415)
Time to swing the bat. (Reference to yesterday's post)
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
The latest selloff in paper derivatives of gold has given us a mathematical price for the real McCoy at very affordable levels for those looking to either establish for the first time their core holding of gold as a portfolio diversifier, or for those looking to add to their existing holdings.
Call Centennial for the best prices on a wide variety of gold coins and bullion. Also, our remaining Dutch Kings available for on-line ordering (link above) are again at their best price.
---
Other business...TrailGuide, thank you for the note yesterday. I very much look forward to it!!
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/25/2001; 6:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46414)
Topaz (msg#: 46406)
http://www.usagold.com/NewGoldMarket.html
Just wanted to let you know I found that to be a exceptional post. Among other things, you remind readers that the value/performance of gold throughout the world is not to be confused or downplayed by the limited perspective as cited by some of its detractors when seen through American eyes wearing dollar-colored glasses.
To add further weight to your comments, here is an excerpt from one of our Gilded Opinion articles (URL given above) citing August 1999 reflections of the recently passed Asian currency crisis by WGC's Albert Cheng, Regional Director, East Asia, Singapore.
EXCERPT FOLLOWS
------------
The recovery in East Asia except Japan continues, as indicated by the strong Q2 demand, particularly Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam ... the strongest since the outbreak of the Asian Economic Crisis.
The recovery in Indonesia was very strong during the second quarter. Demand was 65% higher than in the opening three months of 1999 and a record for the second quarter. Allow me to spend a few minutes to talk a little bit more about the background of the recovery story from Indonesia, the star performer in East Asia in the last quarter.
Gold in Indonesia, as in some other Asian countries, is primarily bought as a store of wealth by the rural community. This practice had some interesting consequences during the recent economic crisis.
The crisis led to the Rupiah plummeting against the dollar, reaching at one stage nearly Rp17,000=US$1.00 compared to the pre-crisis level of Rp2,500=US$1.00. Conversely the local price of gold soared from around Rp20,000 per gram to reach Rp130,000 per gram.
While urban residents with savings in Rupiah suffered badly, rural residents benefited from the soaring gold price. Many sold their jewellery at this stage and used the proceeds to buy land or cattle or to finance new businesses. Along with distress sales, illegal mining and retail stock liquidation, it is thought that as much as 100 tonnes of gold were exported during January-April 1998. There was thus a net increase in wealth in rural areas, which may explain why they were largely unaffected by the civil riots and looting of May 1998.
In August 1998, harvests were good and farmers started to purchase gold once more despite the high price - although quantities bought were smaller than in pre-crisis days. An improving economic and political environment towards the end of the year resulted in the Rupiah gaining ground against the dollar and the local gold price of gold become cheaper. Rural gold purchases rose sharply, reaching 80% of pre-crisis levels. Buying increased further in the first half of 1999 with the continuing relative strength of the Rupiah and the fall in international gold prices.
Elsewhere in the region, second quarter demand in Thailand was four times the level of the same period of last year, in Malaysia there was a 21% gain year on year, while demand in Vietnam was up 18%....
The lessons of the Asian economic and currency crisis have not been forgotten. During the first quarter of last year, there were people in Indonesia and other Asian countries who were only able to buy food and other necessities because they had some gold they could sell.
I want to close today with just one example from a survey we conducted late last year in Indonesia. Mrs. Latiyem told our interviewer, and I quote:
"I didn't have anything, that is why I sold my gold necklace to buy essentials. I bought things like coconut oil, soap and a paddy field. Once I have sold the rice, I may be able to buy back my gold with the profits."
Mrs. Latiyem and anyone who has heard her story will not forget this powerful demonstration of gold's traditional role as a store of value and an asset of last resort.
In fact, the numbers we have been presenting today about gold demand all around the world show quite clearly that this lesson has not been forgotten. The steady growth in gold demand, especially among those Asian countries hardest hit by the economic and currency crisis, provides solid evidence that the people who sold gold in the first quarter of 1998 started to buy it back as early as the second quarter of that year. The buying grew steadily though the remainder of 1998, and continued to grow throughout the first half of this year as well.
The big story in investment over the past decade has been all about the accumulation of wealth. As a consequence of the economic shocks of the past year and a half, the big investment story is starting to be about the preservation of wealth. In their search for ways to achieve that goal, investors are turning increasingly to gold.
--------
END EXCERPT
It is also instructive to have a look at gold through the eyes of a Turkish citizen wearing lira-colored glasses.
At the start of 1996, one ounce of gold was seen locally as equivalent to an account of 20 million lira.
Just five short years later that same one ounce of gold has aptly demonstrated its superiority as a savings asset. The much wiser and experienced eyes of the locals now see from the tough teacher of experience that in order to equate with the value of that original ounce it now requires a bank account of over 180 million lira.
Or put another way, the original paper savings of 20 million lira has fallen in "real wealth" value to only one-ninth ounce of gold...an unnecessary loss due to poor chance and choice of holdings.
auspec
(1/25/2001; 6:53:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46413)
ThaiGold
With increased profits from oil, opium, and other drugs we then get a decreased price of gold. Somehow there is a greater supply of gold on market because of this and we are obviously dealing in the undermarkets. Maybe gold has come to market in exchange for these items giving increased gold supply to suppress POG. So these gents can make so much money in the 3 O's that they will divest themselves of their Au. Is that a Bingo?
Al Fulchino
(1/25/2001; 6:40:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46412)
R Powell (01/24/01; 22:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46388)
You wrote in part:
Five year plans
For Al Fulchino and Cavan Man. Thought I'd mention that in my searching for cotton crop information from China, I'm often reminded that all is going exceptionally well in this-the beginning of the 9th Five-year plan for textile development in China. They report it without humor and, actually, there are doing quite well. Well enough to not have much cotton for export and well enough to have currency to buy gold.
me: Tongue in cheek, yes???? Who here would trade place for Chinese citizenship, either economic or political?
auspec
(1/25/2001; 6:24:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46411)
Steve H/ All
Duty Calls
Was it Soros....... something about "detecting the folly of Government and punishing it"? Just simply doing our civic duty if nothing else. What a monster govt would be if the free market forces weren't there to keep them in check. We are this free market mechanism! What is new in Revelation's repeated messages? Someone here on Forum was unaware of the various risks of this market niche? There is plenty of money to be made w/o the total collapse of the US Banana; ratchet gold up a bit and opportunities really abound. I believe they abound right now simply because the pendulum has swung too far, and affected entities that have little to do with gold itself {resource explorers in general}. The need for various raw materials isn't going away.
I made good money {futures} on the spike in gold after WA, and then flushed it back shorting the S&P. Was delighted to have the opportunity to go after the S&P because I didn't think they could keep it glued together in late 2000. Hats off to Cheetah! Was the risk known ahead of time? Of course. Lose any sleep? No. That's the key, IMO, if you are unable to handle the consequences of the risks you take, then it IS time to move on as Revelation is doing. That's the right decision for him. I've left markets early in the past because of lack of patience, and lived to regret same. Maybe R is in process of this lesson, maybe not.
You are so right, most of us didn't know what we were up against upon starting this hike. Now that the folly is so apparent, however, wouldn't personally dream of pulling away. On the other hand, if everything you own is gold related and the expectation for the future is to continue this pattern indefinitely, the folly might not just belong to govmt!
Steve H- Am looking forward to your continued input as the GATA saga unfolds further, as you have expressed a degree of skepticism in past posts that they will be able to dissect the existing "system" and obtain much remedy. They are knocking on some interesting doors these next few weeks hoping to stock up on enough Bananas to lure Cheetah, and fellow primates out into the open so we can more clearly see their monkey business. Mostly just proving for ALL to see what is fairly well known by the few. With proper funding GATA is quite likely to make transparent some real govt folly.
Got a front row seat? Got GATA?
Black Blade
(1/25/2001; 5:59:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46410)
Turn Around?
Huh? What's this? Gold up +$0.50 and Silver up 5 cents. That can't be right. Hmmm…. NG moving higher too. Too many balls in the air for the power brokers? ;-)
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(1/25/2001; 5:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46409)
Thai Gold
Because drug dealers and Arabs really, really like shiny things?
auspec
(1/25/2001; 5:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46408)
Acronyms
SHRK 2B MD2?
While we are playing games, let's see this one figured out. It's probably too easy. And, also, how would SHRK be pronounced?
SteveH
(1/25/2001; 5:14:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46407)
Revelation
In his or her defense, I find the viewpoint disturbing but quite valid. No one wants to hear that what they have chosen as a significant life choice may suddenly become a question of only benefiting from it if the rest of the world's choice goes into the crapper. Frankly, most of us didn't know this when we got into this and therein lies the big fraud that GATA and Howe and each of us in our own ways seek remedy. It isn't right that it has become the dollar or us, but it did, so what are we going to do about it?
We didn't cause this problem; we know who did and why. And it is a sad state of affairs only brought to light by the freedom of speach and world stage of the Internet.
Topaz
(1/25/2001; 4:48:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46406)
@ REVELATION.
Hello Rev, from the sunny shores of Oz.
I've often pondered frustration and abject dispair that must reside just below the surface when considering long term Gold investors.
My heart (sincerely) goes out to you.
"Profiting" from gold can be and is defined every day the world over - the Indonesian peasant who bought the rice paddy when the rupiah went belly up - is but one example, and if I may be so bold, do not think "it can't happen here" (there or anywhere).
Currently there seems no pressing need to hold all your wealth in Physical metal (however I do) - 12 Mth's ago there were many LESS reasons, 12 Mth's prior to that infinately moreso (in hindsight).
I just finished "whacking Kenny" ( a computer generated version of the Arcade game where a head bob's up and you whack it with a mallet, then another, and another and so on - the longer the game goes , the faster the heads pop up - great fun although bloody stressful!!)
Well, that's what's happening NOW in GLOBAL Fiatsville IMO - and they are pretty good at it - "Kenny's head" (in this context anything that might upset the Applecart) is bobbing up all over the place and, to date, they've kept whacking him - faster and faster, heads everywhere, WHACK!-WHACK!-WHACK!!
and - like me on the 'puter, there comes a time, with sweat running down their faces, hands shaking, eyeballs swimming around in their head, when they'll say......"STUFF KENNY, WE'RE DONE".....and just like me, 10 secs after they're "finished" they'll say "why in the hell did we muck around with this for SO LONG?"
Black Blade
(1/25/2001; 3:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46405)
Getting Ugly This Morning!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
Gold already down another $1.30, and the Euro is getting a real drubbing as it heads back toward $0.82? Maybe Dim Wim is giving press interviews again. Should be an interesting week. Today, Cheeta (AG) tosses a few bananas to the apes in the senate. While Cheeta chatters and the apes nod in agreement with glazed-over blank looks on their faces, the economy continues to spiral outta control. That should keep the bipedal primates happy for a while.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(1/25/2001; 3:34:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46404)
New Energy and Natural Resource Cabinet Sectretaries, But Real Progess in Doubt?
Source: Oil and Gas Journal
Bush nominees face Senate confirmation hearings
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Former Sen. Spencer Abraham (R-Mich.), President George W. Bush's nominee for Energy Secretary, sailed through
confirmation hearings last week in front of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and was approved by the full Senate on Saturday. Controversial Interior Secretary nominee Gale Norton, a former attorney general in Colorado, faced more rigorous questioning from senators during her hearing, but is expected to receive committee approval this Wednesday. As a senator, Abraham cosponsored legislation that would have dismantled the Energy Department and moved most of its functions to other agencies. During his confirmation hearing Thursday, Abraham told the energy committee that due to recent developments like the passage of the National Nuclear Security Administration Act and the deepening energy crisis, "I no longer support this legislation and its various components, such as the privatization of the federal power marketing ministrations." He said the Bush administration plans a "cooperative effort" with Congress to address high energy prices, tight supply, and growing dependence on foreign producers -- although he offered little in the way of details. "President-elect Bush and I are deeply committed to developing an energy policy that includes increasing domestic production of energy in an environmentally responsible manner, increasing our use of renewable energy, decreasing our reliance on imported oil, and developing new technologies that conserve fossil fuels and reduce energy-related pollution." Pointing to the nation's increasing dependence on foreign oil -- more than 57% now, compared to only 36% during the oil crisis of the 1970s -- and to the booming demand for energy, Abraham said the economy is "directly linked to assuring adequate supplies of
reasonably priced energy." He avoided direct statements about opening more public lands for oil and gas drilling or means to increase production. He did make some specific statements supporting continued development of technologies to find cleaner ways to burn coal and advance the use of fuel cells for powering automobiles. Several western senators, including Frank Murkowski (R-Alas.), Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-Colo.), and Craig Thomas (R-Wyo.), were less circumspect than the nominee, castigating the Clinton administration for restricting oil and gas production on public lands. "We have a lot of multiple use lands that ought to be made more available," Thomas said.
Senators also called for an interagency approach to energy issues -- involving the Energy Department, the Interior Department, and the Environmental Protection Agency -- a concept Abraham said he fully supported. Murkowski said, "We need to try to generate a balance between a legitimate concern over the environment . . . and the reality that energy has to come from some source." Abraham was questioned frequently during the hearing about the current electricity crisis in California, but he limited his comments to saying the new administration regarded the matter as a priority, and that he would look closely at possible solutions upon taking office.
Norton says Bush to push for ANWR opening
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Interior Sec. nominee Gale Norton made it clear, in confirmation hearings that ended Friday, that President George W. Bush will honor his campaign pledge to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain to oil exploration. However, she said the administration expects to impose a number of rules to limit environmental impact in the northeastern Alaska area. Despite vociferous opposition to Norton from environmental groups, the Energy Committee is expected to approve her nomination on Wednesday. Senate confirmation also is expected. Norton said oil companies would only explore ANWR "in the dead of winter, so that the tundra itself would not be affected; it would only be ice on top of the tundra where any vehicles might roll. "Those are the kind of measures that are being discussed. We would certainly look to ways of trying to satisfy you that an environmentally sound approach can be done to try to look at reserves that we have heard are estimated to be larger than Prudhoe Bay, the largest oil area ever found in the US." Norton noted that the final decision on opening the refuge would rest with Congress, not with herself or with Bush. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) attacked her position, but she was supported by chairman Frank Murkowski (R-Alas.) and Sen. Don Nickles (R-Okla.). Nickles said, "The Prudhoe Bay area, which originally had production of up to 2 million b/d, is now less than 1 million b/d. Prudhoe Bay is declining and in my opinion we need to open the ANWR to supplement that or else we're going to have an even greater dependency" on foreign oil.
Labeled by some as an extreme pro-business, anti-environment conservative, particularly because of her work with former Interior Sec. James Watt, Norton expressed moderate positions in 2 days of calm, relaxed testimony which won the vocal admiration of senators from both parties. However, she made it clear that under the new administration, Interior would take a very different approach than the current administration in several areas. For instance, she said Interior would consult with local officials before announcing the creation of national monuments. Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) questioned Norton closely on her support for the current moratoria that prevent drilling off his state and others, and whether she would offer tracts in those areas in the leasing program the Minerals Management Service is drafting for 2002-2007. Graham said he had been informed that the energy industry was preparing to lobby for inclusion of those areas in the plan, despite the moratoria, and that Norton "would be the point of pressure for that
industry interest." Norton said she agreed with Bush's support for the moratoria and said she expected the program "to reflect the conditions of the moratoria that are in place." Both Graham and Murkowski also urged Norton to revise the offshore leasing procedure to ensure environmental assessments are made before leases are offered, to prevent situations where companies are blocked from developing leases later. "It would seem to me to make much more sense to do much of that (environmental assessment) at the front end, and if there's a site that is found to be inappropriate for environmental reasons, you don't grant the lease in the beginning," Graham said. He implied Congress may change the leasing process with legislation.
Black Blade: The energy crisis will get a lot worse before it gets better, regardless of the Wall Street pundits. It will take years to bring new oil and NG into production.
ThaiGold
(1/25/2001; 3:20:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46403)
Vision Quest
Attn: Topaz (1/25/2001; 2:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46402)
Hi Topaz
You have my attention. You may put your hand down.
And rest your Pony. You have all done well, and quickly.
We now know that:
PFO is:
(1) Profits From Oil
(2) Profits From Opium
(3) Profits From OtherDrugs
But you cannot rest upon your laurals. Not yet. You all have
learned so far only the definition of PFO. Now your quest must
discover why the inverse relationship exists to POG.
Note: The above PFO is *PROFITs* of Etc. Not *PRICE* of Etc.
Meanwhile, let us prevail upon Sir Black Blade to give us an
estimate of the total barrels per DAY exported by OPEC. And
let's have some Knight or Lady step forward with an abacus
to multiply that number, times the POO (price of Oil). Would
we be surprised that it is a staggering US$ sum.?. Oh... and
we can toss in a few million in Euros, to please others who
feel that's a factor somehow. (Which it isn't).
And when we have those numbers before us, you may then
go astride your Pony(s) once again. Isn't the air (and thinking)
fresh way out here away from the beaten Trail.!.
Goodnight...
ThaiGold
Topaz
(1/25/2001; 2:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46402)
Thai, My hands been up for Hours - PICK ME? - PICK ME?
Thai------ is the answer to 3 "OtherDrugs"?
Too easy Thai, next time push us!
Black Blade
(1/25/2001; 1:56:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46401)
RE: ThaiGold - Many Thanks
Thankyou and you are most welcome. The energy crisis will play itself out in higher costs as it always has. History is a fine teacher. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. Why should things be "different" this time? That's what they said about the Dot.Com mania, and now they're Dot.Gone. That's just the nature of man. My business has suffered as the mining industry has pretty much closed up shop. I am now focussing on the NG and oil business. I know many in my line of work have already made the switch, and I am about to follow in a few weeks after I finish up some projects for a couple of gold mines. I'm afraid that the gold mining companies have "cut their own throats" with such ridiculous antics such as forward sales, etc. They will be hard pressed to find a lot of professional staff when gold rebounds as most are now in other fields of interest and the universities don't produce people with skills in mining. I've seen many lose homes and families break up in gold country, so I have no sympathy for the gold companies. I'm lucky enough to have contacts and experience in petroleum and I will soon move on to "greener pastures" for a while. The petroleum business will boom for a while with the growing demand for energy resulting from the "New Economy", the lack of preparation by utilities in over-regulated states, severe environmental restrictions, and the growing population. This energy crisis was so visible that it was next to impossible not to recognize what was happening. Anyone with a "big-picture" view of the world would have known that energy fuels everything. It is essential to Hydro-Carbon Man's existence, energy was being consumed, and very little was being replaced. In fact only 1 bbl of oil was discovered for every 4 bbl consumed. In the meantime, I will purchase PMs while they're cheap (maybe for a very long time). Cheers!
- Black Blade
tg
(1/25/2001; 1:33:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46400)
REVELATION
Good on you.
Another opinion is always refreshing and needed. Whether i agree with you or not is irrelevant.
I think far too many on this forum have a set view and are too ready to believe the opinions of other posters, who preach what they want to hear, without question.
ThaiGold
(1/25/2001; 1:24:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 46399)
NightLine's "news" ... They get it Late.. Everytime.!.
Attn: Black Blade ... You've put us ahead of the curve so often.
Hi Black Blade
Just finished watching ABC TV's NightLine. Tonight's episode
focused on the California Electricity shortage. Their three
expert panelists were two reporters, and a befuddled professor
from someplace.
They did a poor job of explaining it all to Ted Koppel, himself
apparently clueless, by his questions and spinning of it all.
And incredibly, the panelists were all in agreement that such
problems were not going to spread to other states. And the
natural gas shortage wasn't defined further than "higer NG
prices". And that everything in California will work itself out
favorably in a few weeks. Trust them.
I'd just like to say to you, Black Blade, how grateful we in this
forum should be to you, for bringing this (and much more) to
our attention daily, and in such fine detail. We in this forum
are months-ahead of the news curve of the masses.
And maybe even years ahead of ABC NightLine. Thank you.!.
ThaiGold
Peter Asher
(1/25/2001; 0:51:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46398)
Greenspan to back tax cuts
01/24/2001 - Updated 11:59 PM ET
By George Hager, USA TODAY
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is
expected to endorse tax cuts at a Senate hearing
today, modifying his long-held stance that the
single best use for burgeoning federal surpluses
is paying down the national debt. Sources
familiar with Greenspan's views say the Fed
chairman believes huge new forecasts of the
surplus are legitimate and big enough to
accommodate both substantial debt reduction and
tax cuts.
Further, Greenspan is said to worry that unless Congress devotes a sizable
piece of the surplus to tax cuts, the alternatives would be large new government
spending or government investment in stocks, which Greenspan believes are
poor ideas.
Greenspan will speak to the Senate Budget Committee just as Congress begins
to take up President Bush's proposal for a $1.6 trillion, 10-year tax-cut package.
Though it's far from clear that Greenspan will embrace either the size or
makeup of the Bush proposal, his new support for the concept of tax cuts is
likely to hearten the White House and add major momentum to passage of a tax
cut this year.
Senate Budget Committee Chairman Pete Domenici, R-N.M., confirmed
Wednesday that Greenspan's familiar contention that tax cuts are a distant
second-best to debt reduction is "apt to change" at today's hearing, largely
"because the surplus is so big."
However, Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., the committee's senior Democrat,
emphasized that a realistic view of even the big surplus estimates leaves room
for a tax cut of about $700 billion over 10 years.
Just last July, the Congressional Budget Office projected a 10-year surplus of
$4.6 trillion. That's expected to balloon to $5.7 trillion when CBO issues a new
forecast this month.
Greenspan won't be talking just about tax cuts. Fed watchers and investors are
waiting to hear his prognosis for the economy, which has slowed sharply since
last month. That has prompted some economists to declare that the country has
entered a recession.
Several senior Fed officials have emphasized in recent speeches that though the
economy faces a risky period of subpar growth, it should avoid an outright
recession. Though it's possible that Greenspan could change the Fed's official
outlook today, analysts expect he will echo his colleagues' assertions.
The financial markets will also be listening closely for any hint about the size of
the interest rate cuts policymakers are expected to make when the Fed meets
next week.
Investors who bet on the Fed's rate moves overwhelmingly expect the Fed will
make another unusually large, half-point rate cut, instead of the more cautious
quarter-point move that Greenspan's Fed customarily makes.
Black Blade
(1/25/2001; 0:18:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46397)
The Energy Crisis is Spreading Like Wildfire Across the Land
ENERGY CRISIS SPREADS ACROSS THE US:
1) EVEN THOSE IN TEXAS ARE NOT IMMUNE:
Utility Customers Protest High Rates
CPS May Give Rebates
Thanks to a huge hike in natural gas prices some folks in San Antonio have a hard choice to make this month -- pay your gas bill or eat. An angry crowd gathered at City Hall Wednesday afternoon to protest their bills. Many people have seen their gas bills double, triple, even quadruple recently because of the cold weather and skyrocketing natural gas prices. Many who gathered at City Hall said that they wanted to show City Public Service and city leaders they're unhappy about those high prices. They said that the increases hit those who just scrape by or live on fixed incomes hardest and they want the city to help. "I make between $500 and $1,000 a month so everything is donations and offering and this is about 70 percent of the income here," bill protestor Rev. Antonio Palacio said.
"It's rough. They have to make a decision; buying food for the table or paying their electric bill," bill protestor Jaime Martinez said. "We are also outraged with the bills that we have been getting. Double, triple some of them are four times what it normally is," another bill protestor said. CPS is working on a plan to give gas customers a rebate of about $28 on their next bill. Officials said that they are doing all that they can to keep rates as low as possible. "We have offered money saving tips since December. We have granted an additional $600,000 in pay agreements an pay extensions," CPS spokeswoman Betty Williams said. CPS is presenting the plan to give customers a rebate to the City Council Thursday.
2) RATES TO RISE IN MISSOURI:
Missouri Gas Energy gets approval to raise rates 44 percent
By STEVE EVERLY - The Kansas City Star
Customers of Missouri Gas Energy must pay 44 percent more for natural gas use starting today, under a 3-2 decision Tuesday by the Missouri Public Service Commission. The increase, from $6.81 to $9.82 for a thousand cubic feet of gas, gives the utility the highest purchased gas adjustment charge ever in Missouri. Combined with previous increases, the raise means Missouri Gas Energy customers will soon receive bills that are more than double bills from a year ago for the same amount of gas. And that still may not be the end of higher gas rates. Missouri Gas Energy said in documents filed with regulators that it still could have a shortfall of $18 million, or 26 cents per thousand cubic feet of gas. Those costs could be collected next winter, if regulators approve.
3) OF COURSE MICHIGAN IS ALWAYS COLD IN WINTER:
Heating cost may double
BY ALEJANDRO BODIPO-MEMBA, FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER
Michigan's two largest natural-gas providers plan rate increases of up to 100 percent. Consumers Energy Co. intends to double its rates April 1. Michigan Consolidated Gas Co. seeks state approval to raise its rates by about 75 percent on the same day, but proposes credits which a spokesman said would soften the blow. MichCon, a unit of Detroit-based MCN Energy Group, wants the state Public Service Commission to approve a rate increase to $5.17 per thousand cubic feet. That's an increase of more than 75 percent over the current price of $2.95, which has been frozen since 1998 as part of the company's customer choice program. The average MichCon residential gas bill, not including fees, taxes or charges, would go from $398.25 a year to $697.95. The utility also is seeking to terminate its customer choice program nine months early. MichCon's program -- and rate freeze -- would otherwise not end until Dec. 31.
4) KALIFORNIA’S WOES NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING OVER:
Calif.'s natgas market remains fragile despite reprieve
By Spencer Swartz
SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Milder weather has eased energy demand in California, but the outlook for high natural gas prices through this year are likely due to a host of factors, including the lack of gas supplies. ``It's likely that we'll see price spikes through the summer because of the low supply situation. It will be tight and it could be pretty expensive...it's a bad situation,'' Jen Snyder, Director of North American Gas at Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Massachusetts, said. California's gas crunch began last summer when gas-fired power generation -- about a third of the state's total power needs -- ran almost non-stop to meet the crush of air Conditioning demand. The gas squeeze also followed a drop in hydro electric imports into California from the Pacific Northwest, which typically supplies close to 11 percent of the state's power. When Northwest power imports fall the laws of scarcity take over as power generators, businesses and homes in California compete for natural gas, driving up prices.
To make matters worse, California has seen gas increasingly siphoned away to high growth areas like Las Vegas in neighboring Nevada and it lacks sufficient pipeline capacity to import more gas, according to Bill Wood, chief natural gas forecaster at the California Energy Commission. Four days of gas cuts last week to some non-core industrial customers in San Diego resulted from the local gas utility's need to conserve gas to maintain pressure in its pipeline system and the inability to import gas to meet cold weather-related demand, analysts said. The recent power crisis in California -- which has left the state's largest utilities teetering on the edge of bankruptcy -- has also compounded problems for buying and holding gas. For a number of days, many out-of-state gas suppliers quit selling to cash-strapped utility Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), which has piled up nearly $7 billion in power costs it cannot pass onto customers due to a retail rate cap, on fears they would not get paid. As a result, San Francisco-based PG&E, a unit of PG&E Corp. (NYSE:PCG), leaned heavily on storage gas to meet the daily needs of its 3.8 million gas customers -- a trend, which if continued, would likely put the utility's gas storage at historically low levels by the end of winter.
CALIFORNIA NOT ALONE
Low gas supplies in California have kept wholesale gas prices at the Southern California Border, a major delivery point, above $10 per million British thermal units, more than triple normal levels, for nearly three months. Such prices, the highest in the U.S. but down from all time highs of $70 at Socal Border in late November, have punished industrial users, sent home heating bills soaring and triggered investigations and lawsuits into anti-competitive practices. California is not alone in having strained gas supplies and high prices. Gas inventories in the West and nationwide have been stretched drum-tight the past year due to less productive gas fields and the industry's sharp cutback in new drilling activity after three years of mild winters, sluggish demand and depressed energy prices in 1997-1998. High demand from the residential sector and the power industry, which has shunned coal and oil for environmental and economic reasons, has also pressured gas supplies -- and sent heating bills and power bills soaring around the U.S. With around two months of winter remaining, gas supplies in the U.S. and in the West could be drained to record low levels by summer, when air conditioners typically push power demand to its annual peak. And in California, the energy outlook could grow worse as the Pacific Northwest loses patience with feeding California's hydro habit that has caused high power prices in the region. A poor snow and rain season in the Northwest could also strain power imports into California, which would stoke gas demand and aggravate the power shortages that are expected to continue in the state through summer.
Black Blade: And there are still those who wish to assert that inflation is "benign" or not reflected in the "core-rate" of the CPI and PPI. Choose whatever euphemism you wish, the truth of the matter is that inflation is coming to a utility near you. Costs of goods and service MUST rise and be passed along to the consumer. As The Stranger points out, the huge overhang of the trade deficit will come back to haunt us. Gold and silver as insurance in a well diversified portfolio is just a common sense move.
ThaiGold
(01/25/01; 00:07:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46396)
Vision Quest
Attn: lamprey_65 (01/24/01; 23:23:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46393)
Hi lamprey_65
That's a nifty link you posted to a CrossWord Puzle solver.
Alas, you won't be able to use that. Because of my writing
style. I often makup new words, using two words, with capital
letters showing where each word begins. It's an old trick, used
by programmers in their code. To confuse themselves.
So it's very unfair of me for having inadvertantly done that as:
PFO(3):
Pxxxxxx Fxxx Oxxxxxxxxx
So, just for you (I hope nobody else sees this) try instead:
Profits From OxxxxDxxxx
That should help you OutRun all the OtherKnights.
REVELATION
(01/25/01; 00:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 46395)
SIERRA MADRE
I do opoligize if you have taken things offensively. Only
trying to state the facts regarding gold investing. Just
trying to devide or draw a line in the sand on putting too
much money to work in the gold market. I bid you goodnite
and hope all our dreams are golden.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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