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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/25/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(08/25/00; 23:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35540)
Kaplan Lays an Egg!
KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION: What relationship do you see between the price of oil and the price of gold? ANSWER: There is a myth that the price of gold is closely tied to the price of oil, but the actual historic correlation, although positive, is quite modest; gold is much more closely bound with movements in silver, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc, and since its introduction, the euro. This is because gold's value depends primarily upon its role as a safe haven in a slowing world economy. When there is a strong economic expansion, even if the price of oil is rising rapidly, investors have little need for a safe haven. When the world is entering recession, especially if the U.S. dollar is falling, gold is more eagerly desired, and being one of the few investments which is usually rising entering a recession, is that much more sought after, again regardless of what the oil price might be doing at that time. The two reasons that there is any positive correlation between gold and oil are 1) when the U.S. dollar is either rising or declining rapidly, commodities of all kinds which are priced in dollars will see roughly parallel movements; and 2) a sharply rising oil price can help induce recession, whereas a falling oil price can help stimulate an economic boom.
Black Blade: A sharply rising oil price has led every postwar recession. Gold has done well in recessionary environments. Kaplan's assertion that there is no real relationship between rising oil prices and rising gold prices is utterly false. Just because the two do not rise in tandem simultaneouly is no reason to deny that there is any relationship. Oil prices rose in 1973 during the Arab oil embrago, the booming stock market of "The Nifty Fifty" fame began to collapse and recession followed. Gold began it's sustained rise until 1980 topping out at nearly $850.00/oz. Are we likely to be seeing a repeat of events with rising energy prices and eventually rising PM prices? I would say yes in spite of any PM price manipulation schemes.
Black Blade
(08/25/00; 23:31:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35539)
Another Article From 3 Years Ago!
"Severe power shortage in next 3 years likely"
Our Infrastructure Bureau
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mumbai, Dec 11: There will be a severe power shortage in the country during the next three years, said secretary, ministry of power, EAS Sarma at the Power Tech '97 here on Thursday. The three-day meet was organised by the Chemtech Foundation. "This is because during the last five years, there has not been any significant addition in power-generation and new projects will take around four years to be commissioned," he added. Demand for power is increasing at a faster pace than before, Sarma said. The government is taking steps to face the situation, he said. These include enhancing generation-capacity in existing power plants and increasing their plant-load factor, apart from taking steps to conserve energy.
Sarma said the target for the Ninth Plan was scaled down to a realistic 40,000 mw from the projected 53,000 mw. For the new project, the centre will provide counter-guarantee to eight fast-track power projects. Four projects - Bhadravati (Maharashtra), Cogentrix (Karnataka), Vizakh and STCMS (Tamil Nadu) will be issued counter guarantees in a couple of months. Sarma admitted the decision on setting up of the Central Electricity Authority and privatisation of the transmission sector would be possible only after the new government was in place.
Black Blade: Just further proof that people are stupid and never learn. Even in India they saw the future and did not prepare.
Black Blade
(08/25/00; 23:26:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35538)
2 Year Old Article Written in Sept. 1998! Very Telling!
http://www.detroitnews.com/1998/biz/9809/09/09090062.htm
Oil shortage due in two years, OPEC exec says
Bloomberg News
LONDON -- The world is headed for an oil shortage in about two years because consumption is rising and companies are cutting back on exploration after a year-long slump in prices, OPEC's top executive said. "The ax has fallen on many exploration and production programs," said Rilwanu Lukman, general secretary of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. "This could result in a possible supply crunch." A 30-percent drop in oil prices is discouraging new investment at a time when world oil demand is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels a day, or 3.2 percent, in the next few years as weakened Asian economies recover, Lukman said. The current worldwide oil glut was caused by rising output by OPEC in the past year, waning Asian demand and an unusually warm winter that cut heating oil consumption. OPEC's attempts to support prices by pledging to cut 2.6 million barrels a day in production have so far failed. Crude oil prices in London reached $11.55 a barrel last month, the lowest level in almost a decade. "The global economy is expected to grow at a healthy pace as the Asia crisis bottoms out," Lukman said. Asian growth combined with reduced exploration activity "will lead to an erosion of spare capacity," he said. The Paris-based International Energy Agency said demand is likely to increase, especially in Asia, as the population and incomes climb. Asia's "long-term energy needs are enormous," said Robert Priddle, executive director of the IEA. "The recession does not appear to have bottomed out yet, but demand growth will resume in the next four years." Until Asian demand recovers, oil prices will be influenced largely by how much OPEC and non-OPEC producers can cut their output.
Black Blade: This article came out 2 years ago! The short-sighted petroleum companies stopped exploring and lost their experienced people, many forever. What a bunch of Bozos. The mining companies have done much the same. Now the energy crisis is just beginning. 1973 was a walk in the park compared to what is coming. The situation with NG is even worse! Another minor heat wave, and a normal winter, then it all goes to hell in a ....... But hey, as long as it isn't part of the Core Rate numbers we can be blissfully oblivious just like sheep as they enter the kill floor of the slaughter house.
Black Blade
(08/25/00; 23:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 35537)
More Weirdness on Palladium
NYMEX and TOCOM Crooks Love These Games.
Palladium forecast
By Anna Ivanova-Galitsina in Moscow
Published: August 24 2000 22:56GMT | Last Updated: August 24 2000 22:59GMT
Russia plans to increase palladium production by about 7 per cent this year, according to UBS Warburg, the investment bank. The increase should ease the pressure on prices, which hit a 12-year high at the beginning of August at $859 per ounce. Prices have since settled to $730. Last year, Norilsk Nickel, the sole producer of palladium in Russia, produced 90.2 tonnes of it, 60-70 per cent of world production. However, Norilsk Nickel declined to comment on the UBS Warburg estimate. But it said that high prices might hurt the palladium market in the long term by forcing consumers to develop the use of other metals. Norilsk Nickel said it planned to start work on new fields next year, including a vast platinum ore field MS-Gorizont in the Taymyr autonomous region in the far north of Russia. Norilsk Nickel exports most of its palladium and platinum, and said demand far exceeded supply.
Black Blade: Let's see now, 7% of nothing is still nothing.
NYMEX to suspend palladium margin increase set for Aug 28 New York--Aug. 25--The New York Mercantile Exchange said that the margin increases on its palladium futures contract originally scheduled for Aug. 28 have been suspended and the current rates will remain in effect until further notice. (Story .14083)
Black Blade: Interesting since the big boys at the NYMEX washed out several longs by "stealing" from them by raising requirements on margins, now it's a matter of "just kidding". A little late now after these criminals did their deed to avoid a scandal just before first notice day. They are manipulators and they have no honor or ethics just the same as the unhonorable Japanese on the TOCOM. See how this will be how they will react with Gold, Platinum, and Silver when prices explode. Get out now; take possession of physical and unhedged profitable mining shares.
Black Blade
(08/25/00; 21:51:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 35536)
Party Coming Up in Montana
http://www.outwestnewspaper.com/balls.html
I shall be going to my old stomping grounds in a couple of weeks for a weekend that most of you just wouldn't understand. So I posted the link so you could find out for yourselves. And that's no Bull!
Aristotle
(08/25/00; 20:32:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35535)
Thanks, Cavan Man. And JavaMan, the gall bladder, too?
Sounds like they they sent their 'scope on quite a scenic tour of your inner workings. Perhaps we could get them to do a number on the bullion banks, too?
Here's a tip on that acid issue--crush it into submission with steady flow of your favorite Golden barley pop. That's the trick. Dilution!
Glad to hear you're on your feet and voicing thoughts that are good to follow, such as-- "I have come to think a program of steady, consistent acquisition over time makes sense, keeps the issue in proper perspective, and frees one up to live the rest of ones life."
I hope it's a long one.
---Aristotle
SHIFTY
(08/25/00; 18:49:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 35534)
Hoax press release stuns Wall Street
http://www.vny.com/cf/News/upidetail.cfm?QID=112283
Hoax press release stuns Wall Street
Friday, 25 August 2000 18:03 (ET)
Hoax press release stuns Wall Street
By HIL ANDERSON
LOS ANGELES, Aug. 25 (UPI) -- Wall Street was rocked Friday when a false
press release bearing dire news about Emulex Corporation caused the stock
price of the high-flying fiber optics company to collapse amid panicked
selling on the Nasdaq market.
===========================================================
The link above has the whole story.
$hifty
Aristotle
(08/25/00; 18:20:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35533)
Thank you, Trail Guide
Your words to me today were a rare treat indeed--a treasure that can find no equivalent expression in any number of ounces. Simply priceless.
---Aristotle
SHIFTY
(08/25/00; 18:19:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 35532)
Java Man
I hope you get to feeling better than new soon!
:)
$hifty
Aristotle
(08/25/00; 17:17:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35531)
Here you will find my answer to your latest, JMB
http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html
"Why should goods be priced in dollars or pounds or whatever? Why not price goods in terms of gold?"
Sure, it COULD be done, but all experience has shown that inevitable problems arise with the nature of the resultant System that mankind establishes in order to support this prospect of Gold-pricing and payments.
Back in February I attempted to recount the inevitable cause-and-effect sequences that ever follow such a seemingly well-intentioned and admirable attempt to use Gold directly as currency. The ultimate outcome was never quite what the Gold proponents wanted or anticipated, and this is where we are today--up to our eyeballs in fiat currency with a concurrent Gold market that is entirely artificial as a support mechanism. Fortunately, our faithful TownCrier saw fit to capture this commentary and the considerable discussion that followed so that it can be easily revisited or referred to anytime. (see the link) It was definately a good back-and-forth flow of thoughts and opinions, and my post this morning, in hindsight, makes for a suitable prologue to this piece--quite timely when you consider the question you are currently weighing.
As we endeavor to move deliberately and intelligently into the future, it is certain that we cannot rid ourselves of paper currencies, but we certainly can, and must(!), rid ourselves of paper Gold and the masking effect it has on wider recognition of Gold's proper usage value as a wealth asset.
I'm sure that this longish commentary is not the most pleasant thing to be reading on the doorstep of a nice weekend, but it's the best I can offer in addressing the issues raised in your message #35522.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
JavaMan
(08/25/00; 16:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35530)
All...
I just got back from an overnight stay at the hospital. Yesterday I had a laparoscopic fundoplication (a fancy name for a process whereby they tighten the entrance of the esophagus to the stomach to prevent excess stomach acid from moving back up the esophagus leading to all kinds of havoc). And while they were "in there" they took out the ol' gall bladder. Feeling ok but forgive me if my post may wander at times as I still may be under the effects of some of the anaesthesia.
Aristotle, I DO enjoy your "style" (feel free to substitue stature, class, character, etc.). Your writing has a way of communicating not only what you think, but also, who you are. You may not consider yourself a teacher but, beyond any doubt, you are a leader...setting a standard that others, as myself, can only aspire to.
auspec, the only remedy for your "affliction" which, I suspect others here share to varying degree, is balance and a long term view. Anything else, I believe, is a sure recipe for acid. (See my first paragraph above.) Once upon a time, I found myself caught up in the excitement, thinking, "I've got to load up before the price takes off." Such a mind set might only be justified if, in fact, the price did take off shortly thereafter. But it didn't and it might not anytime soon. No one can say with absolute certainty when it will.
As I have said before, I have come to think a program of steady, consistent acquisition over time makes sense, keeps the issue in proper perspective, and frees one up to live the rest of ones life. Because I know I'm going to buy some gold coins at the end of the month, I don't care what the price is today or what it is at the end of the month. As a matter of fact, I've been wondering if the price of gold could go considerably lower before the final launch. If the price of gold is "managed", isn't it possible that the "managers" might try to drive the price even lower so as to pick up as much physical gold as possible at even lower gold give-away prices than exist today? Good luck to you.
Henri, congratulations!
On another note, while watching CNN yesterday evening, they showed some footage of Russian news about angry people talking to a military committee about the Kursk tragedy. I saw this same footage some time ago but this time they ran more of it. A woman was standing up yelling at the committee saying that "you should take off your medals and be shot...you bastards." Well, I thought, Russia is loosening up not only to allow such a display, but to also allow it to be shown all over the world. But, what's this? A woman dressed in plain clothes went to the distressed woman and gave her a shot right through her overcoat sleeve. The hypodermic was in plain view. The outraged woman immediately went limp and silent. The announcer commented that the government was offering medical assistance to anyone who needed it to cope with the tragedy and that the lady in plain clothes was, in fact, a government officer in the act of "helping". Hah! The not-so subtle discrepancy is that it wasn't being "offered", it was being forced. Speak your mind in Russia about the way the tragedy was handled and you can still get shot...only now it might be with a couple hundred milligrams of thorazine. They have a long way to go.
Cavan Man
(08/25/00; 16:30:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35529)
Trail Guide & Aristotle
TG: Whenever you are ready. I am available at your convenience.
Ari: You are brilliant!
JMB
(8/25/2000; 13:51:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35528)
AUSPEC
There is no known cure for GOLDBUGITIS. I must urge you to display as much forgiveness as possible toward your parents. We can all profit by the example that ARISTOTLE has set. Follow his lead because when gold hits $400 your parents are going to take all the credit. Just give them a big smile and take them out to dinner.
AllanC
(8/25/2000; 13:48:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35527)
Aristotle-JMB
Amen
auspec
(8/25/2000; 13:30:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35526)
Evolution And Confessions Of An Addictive Personality
Now that Aristotle has bravely blazed a trail I am also feeling compelled to come clean on this esteemed forum. Something really big is in the air. Thanks for this [confession booth] forum as I am fairly new to it and I know not where else to go for help.
My problem started in 2nd grade and continues to this very afternoon in various hideous forms. Our parents forced my older brother and me to smoke a cigarette as punishment for our interest in tobacco. Brother Jim did as expected, turned several unusual shades, and quickly headed for porcelain. My response was my 1st politically incorrect one [sorry Bubba]- I asked for another cigarette as it was definately good! This started me on a belatedly repentant trail that endurred for over 25 yrs. Forms of tobacco used included left over butts from a friend's older sister, whole fresh cigarettes later, cigars, tiparillos, roll your own, dip, plug, and pipe. My self esteem was so low that I probably would have used a tobacco enema if it existed. These were difficult days.
How did I ever whip this horrible affliction? You guessed it, via substitution. I FOUND GOLD! It started in 1980 with a Canadian gold stock called Jupiter that somehow made good money. Even though the Canadian Police questioned us about this particular stock [ still don't know why but now am enlightened enough to guess] I was HOOKED. I had miraculously been freed from tobacco and was ready to start living. Next thing you know I'm "doing' gold and silver futures, rare coins, sr. gold stocks, jr. gold stocks, flyer gold stocks, private placements, gold bullion, wacko internet sites, you name it. I'm initially thinking, no way I'm addicted to gold as I can go several hours without thinking about it, but the truth was inescapable. Once again I had abused every form of gold but the gold enema and it sure felt like I'd had a couple. Not much changes on this slippery slope of tobacco for gold [ like oil for gold but I'm not Middleeastern]. My rare coins turned out to be not so rare, margin calls came in, "paper" stocks became toilet paper as I continued to average [flush] {straight] down. I told my wife I gotta have more "physical" and her eyes briefly light up until she realizes I'm talking about gold AGAIN. My kids grudgingly humor me. I'm obsessed, clearly and can only turn to this forum for help. Surely there is someone, somewhere, who knows what I'm going through. A support group [or is this it]? If only I had gotten sick in 2nd grade like my brother. Parents are supposed to be our friends!
HELP!!! Is there another substitution possible? Is there a patch for gold???
AUSPEC
Bobbo
(8/25/2000; 13:24:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35525)
Telling close today....
Gold/XAU rally continues. So far, so good. Looks like POG has more to the upside. XAU is getting a little mixed now. A strong close today (over 52) would be bullish, however it will also turn some of the charts short term overbought. Again the short term condition can persevere against odds, but that strong close will turn long time charts/techs into a definite buy. Go Strong Close...probably will.
A weak XAU close today will help alleviate short term overbought charts/techs but will do nothing for the long term charts. Picture is rather mixed with different time frames giving contradictory indications. If POG rockets up next week, the picture will become much clearer...:) GO Gold...
Hey Mr. JMB - How about a "gold credit card" backed currency. Oops, I think we may already have that...:)
BTW, thanks for those kind words a few weeks ago...
Henri
(8/25/2000; 12:51:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35524)
Mermaids
Clink Clink
wolavka
(8/25/2000; 12:46:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 35523)
fwiw
Could not get filled on some buy orders in gold today.
We may have major move sunday nite/ Monday. (Gold)
JMB
(8/25/2000; 11:07:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35522)
ARISTOTLE
THE EVOLUTION and CONFESSIONS of an UNREPENTANT GOLD ADVOCATE....now that was good. Whether you like it or not, YOU'RE A TEACHER (period)<smile> I can not possibly do justice to your confession today, or at any time, for that matter. You could have certainly kicked my "anus" with one foot tied behind your back...but you chose not to...what grace! Thank you.
If I could be so bold to pose the very same question to you that I've asked of Mr.C (AllanC). If you choose to ignore me, I don't blame ya. Here goes. Why should goods be priced in dollars or pounds or whatever? Why not price goods in terms of gold? I wanted to point out to Mr.C that "Gold within the system" (I'm taking the liberty of stealing that from you) MUST have credit within the system or how (for one example) will the kids of the future buy a car or presentable clothes for the necessary job interview?
Would a paper credit system work if it were backed by silver, nickle and copper? This system must be kept separate from our gold, and our gold must be represented by paper...I do not want to carry my gold around, it's too heavy. No fractional banking, no legalized counterfeiting; if you want leverage, do it within the silver, nickle and copper system.
I see you have a very subtle sense of humor so I hope you'll appreciate what's coming. I hope this works. How do you tie the gold and credit system together? You do it with cyanide. Warehouses of cyanide. Could the credit system be backed with silver, nickle, copper and cyanide. If people lever it up too far and it goes bust, it shouldn't hurt the gold investors at all. Two types of "money"? China does it...will their system continue to work...no way. But what about the Gold/Credit system? Where have I gone wrong? What have I over looked? Fixed exchange rates...I really don't like them.
I sure like the looks of this gold market today. I think I'll go get me some.
SLF
(8/25/2000; 10:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35521)
FOA / Trail Guide
I lost the paper that my pass code was on. I wanted to thank you for your response to my questions the other day. I will try harder to see things from the deep water.Thank You.
CoBra(too)
(8/25/2000; 10:05:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 35520)
Sir Aristotle -
Your "Evolution and Confessions of an unrepentant Gold Advocate" not only has "style" as you've "accused" me once, that noone has ever accused you of possessing said item in your character. You're right, you have more than style, you have wisdom and are kind enough to share your accumulated wealth of wisdom - and not only economic and monetary - with
this forum. I personally wish to thank you for all your great efforts at this special time, where we all feel a seachange of conception of what real wealth is and will be and how the future will certainly shape up in this context may not be too far off.
At this stage my narrowmindedness dictates to enyy you 'Mercans, having had a headstart to pick up wealth with your inflated $ - at least 30% vs the euro? no :))!, though in the end what's 30% if you get your wealth, gold for almost free and clear and unencumbered?
Though I play some educated(-hopefully! paper) gold plays as well, usually via some juniors in again hopefully all the right areas and with their ounces proven probable and sometimes assumed only in the ground - and what's more important retaining a measure of control of friendly managements. That's probably my infantile nature I try to preserve to old age.
Gold, get you some is ringing in my ears too - cb2
TEX
(8/25/2000; 9:32:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35519)
Huh?
What the .........? Sorry about the triple post.
TEX
(8/25/2000; 9:28:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35518)
Hold that Gold
While driving to work this morning, I was listening to the local "business for breakfast" morning radio show. You know, the usual market updates and commentary. Nothing is ever mentioned about PM's with the exception of this morning. Long story short, the discussion revolved around what stocks or investments to buy, hold and sell. At first, I couldn't believe that the word "Gold" was being mentioned. Then, the commentator went on to say that Gold was a definite "hold" in anticipation of future increases. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm..............
TEX
(8/25/2000; 9:28:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35517)
Hold that Gold
While driving to work this morning, I was listening to the local "business for breakfast" morning radio show. You know, the usual market updates and commentary. Nothing is ever mentioned about PM's with the exception of this morning. Long story short, the discussion revolved around what stocks or investments to buy, hold and sell. At first, I couldn't believe that the word "Gold" was being mentioned. Then, the commentator went on to say that Gold was a definite "hold" in anticipation of future increases. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm..............
TEX
(8/25/2000; 9:27:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 35516)
Hold that Gold
While driving to work this morning, I was listening to the local "business for breakfast" morning radio show. You know, the usual market updates and commentary. Nothing is ever mentioned about PM's with the exception of this morning. Long story short, the discussion revolved around what stocks or investments to buy, hold and sell. At first, I couldn't believe that the word "Gold" was being mentioned. Then, the commentator went on to say that Gold was a definite "hold" in anticipation of future increases. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm..............
Dr. Jones
(8/25/2000; 9:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35515)
Aristotle
I second tg's compliments of msg# 35504. Your exemplary display of civility, dignity, and logic is much appreciated.
Your modesty is also noted. However, your many lucid posts are certainly worthy of "teacher" status. I, for one, see the derivatives game and the gold-oil relationships much more clearly thanks to your illuminating posts.
dj
SHIFTY
(8/25/2000; 9:11:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35514)
any/all
Wasn't there an investigation going on in London to try and find out who ordered the BOE gold sales?
I thought that there was and that they were to finish by Sept. Has anyone heard anything on this?
Also if they (BOE) were to cancel future gold sales, would this finish off the manipulation crowd?
$hifty
:)
Trail Guide
(8/25/2000; 8:57:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 35513)
Reply
Hello Knallgold,
Do you think LBMA and their entire operation are wondering what price that gold will eventually be offered at so as to flow back to them? You know, once the political flow is more recognized, then that off market pricing will eventually leak into the open. I wonder what someone with extra
assets would pay "over market" to put out their fire ahead of the rest?
The world sees supply as growing when it's shrinking to almost nothing. See my post to oldgold and you will feel "the deep current" in blue water.
thanks
Trail Guide
Note, Cavan Man, we talk tomorrow, yes?
Trail Guide
(8/25/2000; 8:55:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35512)
Comment
oldgold (8/25/2000; 8:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35510)
Energy and Gold
Hello Oldgold,
I know you have held a forceful opinion for sometime that the US can and is still controlling oil producers. Your thinking was no doubt rightfully influenced by our last ten to twenty years of experience with the political world of oil.
What has been changing for the last number of years was our realization that a new currency would available to the world. True, it's nothing to write home about now but we as as a Western thinking group tend to underweight it's strategic importance as an "available alternative" to the dollar if needed. This subtle fact has shifted the playing field considerably when viewing the US ability to control oil flow.
Today, oil flow has moved from playing a fundamental game of pricing "use value" with supply and demand to pricing it's "monetary value" in supporting any major currency block. Concessions are now there for the taking. Dollar prices for oil can rise considerably higher with the US's behind the
scene support for this action. In addition, the world paper gold markets can and are being dismantled as a further concession to retain dollar settlement of oil.
Strangely, the coming surge in physical prices are now a 180 degree shift from keeping them low in support of oil flow. In the future, rising physical bullion stores (and dollar prices) will play an important roll in playing a failing inflationary dollar against an ever likely increasing shift towards Euro oil settlement. No matter how this eventually plays, our dollar paper gold markets will dissolve as free priced bullion supports the EBS / Euro system.
Your article goes a long way to seeing the mental shift some Western thinkers are only just now grasping. It's seems even Goldman has printed a paper calling for 50 oil! It will be very interesting to see how their stock is valued the try to ride the middle ground between a short gold position vs
long oil. In the end their much vaulted paper gold game make them a tone of money but without a market available to realize those gains. The more GATA talks, the more the paper world sweats. Not from a short squeeze, but from their market being officially evaporated. I know you, oldgold
must also (smile) as I do at that thought!
thanks
Trail Guide
Black Blade
(8/25/2000; 8:43:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35511)
Tightening The Lid on The Pressure Cooker!
Market watch, Aug. 25
International energy futures prices dipped Thursday as traders took profits from recent rises, after a White House spokesman said the administration has not ruled out the possibility of releasing oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to offset possible winter shortages .The October contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes lost 39¢ to $31.63/bbl, while the November contract was down 47¢ to $31.09 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, in after-hours electronic trading, both contracts moved up to $31.69/bbl and $31.16/bbl, respectively. The September contract for heating oil lost 0.28¢ to 95.33¢/gal on the NYMEX, while unleaded gasoline for the same month gained 0.45¢ to 95.03¢/gal. The September natural gas contract dipped 6.5¢ to $4.54/Mcf. In London, the October contract for North Sea Brent crude dropped 34¢ to $30.35/bbl, amid profit-taking. The September gas contract was basically unchanged at the equivalent of $2.47/Mcf on the International Petroleum Exchange. Analysts expect the IPE to remain comfortably above the $30/bbl level with no new signals from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries of a possible increase in production. Earlier this week, Iranian and Venezuelan oil officials said they perceive no severe shortage of crude. They claimed high product prices in consuming countries should be blamed on high taxation as well as short supplies of those items. The average price for OPEC's basket of seven crudes slumped 37¢ to $29.14/bbl on Thursday.
Black Blade: Manipulation schemes abound. There is the Gold Market, then the Palladium Market, and now the Petroleum Market. Soon the pressure cooker won't handle it much longer before it explodes. There just isn't that much Pd in the Strategic Defense Reserve, and the strategic Petroleum Reserve won't hold out for long either. Meanwhile NY Crude is off $0.13 at $31.50/bbl, but NG is up $0.03 at $4.57 Mcf. Severe shortages are coming!
oldgold
(8/25/2000; 8:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35510)
Energy and Gold
Very interesting quote from the Don Hays website this morning:
"My contrarian tentacles tend to pick up when I see the herd take an approach, but the market tends to ignore it as it did
yesterday. I also had received two reports in recent days, from an analyst and strategist that I have found to be real forward
thinkers in the past, that are disputing the "herd" opinion that the mighty Uncle Sam will be able to coerce the roll-back of
these oil prices. Both of these sources are pointing out that there has been no significant building of oil supply in the last 20
years, and that the declining commodity prices in the past have forced oil companies to drill the easy prospects. And one of
the sources points out how the stage could be set, with the new "anti-US" leader "elected" in Venezuela, to organize once
again the cash-strapped Third World countries to jack the price of oil up much higher and for longer than anyone now
expects. I have no idea whether either one of these stories is going to prove correct, but since it is so much against popular
opinion, its chances to be proven out are boosted in my book."
Now we have seen that higher oil prices are not necessarily bullish for gold per se. But if the US starts to be seen as less than totally omnipotent in the world and is unable to force the oil producers to roll back prices -- THE IMPLICATIONS FOR POG ARE EXTREMELY BULLISH. The less omnipotent the US is seen to be -- the better gold will do
Black Blade
(8/25/2000; 7:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35509)
New Silver Batteries Coming on The Market.
Ergenics is developing a silver Hy-Stor battery for portable applications which offers significant advantages over nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydride and lithium-ion cells. Initially introduced as a D cell, smaller configurations can be accommodated. Of course silver oxide batteries are in common use today. These new generation batteries will be on store shelves soon, and new larger batteries and fuel-cell applications are under way.
Black Blade
(8/25/2000; 7:25:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 35508)
Silver Demand to End Soon? - Not a Chance!
As far as silver demand and photographic film is concerned I don't see a lot of people making the switch to digital photography anytime soon. Some ignoramuses have touted the demise of silver with the coming of the digital camera. Somehow, I don't see 1 billion Chinese and 800 million Indians, as well as another 2 to 3 billion people of modest means buying expensive digital cameras, computers, printers, etc. and other hardware. They will more likely buy cheap cameras and use silver-halide film for many years to come. Of course there are the new batteries that are being developed that contain silver. Mr. Buffett has a substantial position in Silver and in a battery manufacturer. Of course George and Paul Soros are major shareholders of Apex Silver (SIL) and Bill Gates is a major shareholder of Pan American Silver (PAAS). Does not take a rocket scientist to figure this one out. - Black Blade
Black Blade
(8/25/2000; 6:46:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35507)
From The Asian Front
Asia Precious Metals Review: News of SNB's gold sale impact prices
By Mari Iwata and Polly Yam, BridgeNews
Tokyo--Aug. 25--Spot gold rose for much of the Asia trading on Friday but fell late in the afternoon on news that Swiss National Bank by mid-August had sold 85 tonnes of Swiss gold into the market, dealers said. Physical demand supported the gold price from falling further, they added.
Silver stood firm on the lack of selling interest after overnight price rises in the U.S. market.
Black Blade: That was news to the Asian markets? Where have they been? I guess any excuse will do. They are really reaching for that one!
Black Blade
(8/25/2000; 6:40:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35506)
"Morning Wakeup Call!"
Sources: BridgeNews, and Business day
THE WESTERN FRONT:
Precious Metals
LONDON - Silver and gold prices continued to lose ground in Europe yesterday, with gold battered by a strong dollar, traders said. "Gold spent the day hanging around the bottom half of its (273/5) trading range although physical demand was starting to pick up at current levels," one dealer said. "I can see gold slipping a little lower," another dealer said. Spot bullion was last quoted softer but off lows at 273,70/4,40 from the New York close of 272,25. While silver had been the focus of the marketplace over recent sessions, it failed to move much. "Silver is being besieged on all sides given its current price weakness, but people are just using stories of (Warren) Buffett liquidation and Chinese selling as an excuse," a trader said. Talk of renewed Chinese official sales of the metal began as the spot price started to fall in recent weeks - though only by a total of 10c - after months of stagnant trade. However, traders were dismissing the idea of resumption of sales as inaccurate, saying the sales had continued this year on a drip-feed basis after estimated official Chinese sales of 61-million ounces last year. Speculation that US investor Warren Buffett was quietly liquidating his silver holdings had begun to die down. "You'd have to wonder why he'd sell now. Besides, he wouldn't tell the market, would he?" one trader said. Instead, some analysts explained away the weakness of the silver price by pointing to the possibility that the market had been unable to sustain values more than above 5,10 over the past few months and this had led merely to stale bull activity. Spot silver closed at 4,82/4 from a New York close of 4,84/6. Platinum and palladium both saw little trade, although the forwards on both were a little tighter in the short ends. Talk of Russian deliveries was still the focus, despite no official indications of anything happening soon. Platinum had erased some early gains to end at 568/74 from 566/74. Also off session highs, palladium was last at 738,50/48,50 from 730/50. - Reuters.
Black Blade: Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway are not likely selling any silver. They are willing to sit on any investment for decades if necessary. That is warren Buffett's "value" investment style that he learned from Ben Graham.
SWISS GOLD: SNB's Meyer says 85 tns of gold sold by mid-Aug Zurich--Aug. 25--Swiss National Bank President Hans Meyer said all the bank's expectations have been met so far during its program of gold sales, and that by mid-August 85 tonnes of Swiss gold had been sold into the market. The SNB has targeted the sale of 120 tonnes by the end of September as the first tranche of its sale of 1,300 tonnes of excess gold reserves. (Story .11292)
Black Blade: Once a haven from the prying eyes of oppressive governance and a safe place to store one's wealth, the Swiss have caved into outside pressures. Amidst all this, the Swiss gold give-away continues.
BLACK GOLD (TEXAS TEA):
Crude oil closed higher Wednesday in response to a decline in US oil supplies, reported the Canadian Press. A recent report released by the American Petroleum Institute showed that US oil stocks fell to 279.7 million barrels, down 7.8 million barrels, while distillate oil stocks, including heating oil, fell by 2.89 million barrels to 111.2 million and gasoline stocks fell 1.14 million barrels to 202.2 million. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst with Alaron Trading, says "this year the squirrel isn't burying any nuts and we're going into the winter on fumes." Crude for October delivery rose $0.80 to US $32.02/barrel in New York, while natural gas rose $0.85 to $4.60/mcf. (Aug 24/00)
Black Blade: Interesting way to put it. While other analysts are following each other in a simple case of "monkey see - monkey do" Mr. flynn goes the other way.
Meanwhile, As everyone await Cheeta's remarks at the Jackson Hole Dog and Pony show, GDP revisions, and existing home sales reports, S&P Futures are down –0.40, Fair Value up +1.83, a slight positive. Oil still higher up $0.09 at 31.72/bbl, and other petroleum products are also in positive territory in spite of analysts downgrades yesterday in a case of "hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil". Au is up $0.50 at $272.60. Ag is up 3 cents at $4.84, Pt gained a buck at $573.00, and Pd is down -$3.00 at $713.00 as result of further NYMEX market manipulation.
Knallgold
(8/25/2000; 6:16:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 35505)
Swiss Gold
Zurich--Aug. 25--Swiss National Bank President Hans Meyer said all the bank's expectations have been met so far during its program of gold sales, and that by mid-August 85 tonnes of Swiss gold had been sold into the market. The SNB has targeted the sale of 120 tonnes by the end of September as the first tranche of its sale of 1,300 tonnes of excess gold reserves.
"into the market",they don't tell us which market.But then,it isn't COMEX/LBMA as per their earlier statement "conducted via BIS".So it must be the other market.ANOTHER market?
Or is it to smooth the transition?Trail Guide?
Trail Guide
(8/25/2000; 6:04:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35504)
Comment
Oh Aristotle,
Standing on the hillside of life and watching our "golden wars"
I can see your battle crest like a blazing sun!
Your thoughts are our true course
mighty words do shield these golden hearts
Advance mighty one and draw ever nearer truth
for the benifit of all
-----------------
My friend, Isn't it interesting how people revert to debating and berating "the presentation" of a position when they are lost to discuss or question "the content". Your beautiful post drives home "the content"!
One should read these passages first and settle into a thought frame.
Then reread the whole post:
Aristotle (8/25/2000; 4:02:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35502)
The evolution and confessions of an unrepentant Gold advocate
-----for myself despite the heavy influences of the Goldbug dogma I had eagerly absorbed with gusto. As I came to realize how many pieces of their puzzle didn't fit, I came to see that the explanation was owing to the well-intentioned reason that much of the "standard Goldbug rhetoric" was based on idealism.----------
------Happily for the buggiest Goldbugs, this same pragmatism also renders equally null and void the successful implementations of any notions of an idealistic paper-only world as seen in the wildest dreams of Keynesians, governments, and many bankers. As things are, Gold has a very important role squarely in the middle of a pragmatic world, yet too few people give much "theoretical thought" to this middle ground.------------
------I arrived at a position with a realistic eye on the middle ground giving me clearer monetary understanding as it works in the real world, and also how it COULD in fact (and should) be made to work immeasurably better.-------
------Such has been my evolution toward monetary "enlightenment," and such is my position here--as a pilgrim, not a teacher--at the very bottom and on the fringe of the admirable and idealistic gentlemen who gather here to share their thoughts and visions of a better world and a better monetary system.------
-----I certainly didn't come here as perhaps some of the traders have--after having gotten themselves into an investment hole, hoping to argue, defend, and justify their way out of it.----
-----Keynes didn't call Gold itself a "barbarous relic," but he rightly called the Gold STANDARD a "barbarous relic," which is also precisely what the system of Gold derivatives and bullion banking of today has become---------
-------a relic of a clever scheme originally to offer life-support to a failing dollar-based international system at a time when the world had no other option. -------
This patchwork scheme is no longer needed. On the other hand, freemarket physical Gold, as the pure and essential reserve/savings asset (unlent with no derivatives) is desperately needed in the modern world to indiscriminately bolster each of us along side modern currencies which are now a permanent feature in the financial landscape. Simply put, Freemarket Gold is the only way for a man to safely coexist with his currency.--------
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle -----------
---------------------------
Thanks Aristotle--- The future is before us!
Trail Guide
wolavka
(8/25/2000; 4:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35503)
China
Be patient, east meets west, money flows in from south, out by north.
Back to the future good movie, "You calling me yellow, NOBODY CALLS ME YELLOW."
Get gold now.
280 breakout in dec
282 resistance 286 289. reestablished power trend line @ 286.90
Gem proof 3.00 gold pieces , i enjoy them.
Aristotle
(8/25/2000; 4:02:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35502)
The evolution and confessions of an unrepentant Gold advocate
Hello to you, Mr. JMB
I've had the pleasure of catching up on the postings for the past day and see from your recent message (08/24/00; 23:28:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35490) and similar earlier expressions that you are apparently having a problem with AllanC, and with me also. It is my observation that AllanC has conducted his affairs at the forum this day in an exemplary manner (such as his 35479). He gave you a good reply, steered his remarks toward meaningful discussion of Gold, and yet you persist. What more would you have of him, appointing him as my spokesman seemingly, when you state, "My case, simply put, is that GOLDHUNTER presented an excellent post and ARISTOTLE was unnecessarily rude to him. You [AllanC] have stated that 'GOLDHUNTER posed a fair question' yet you said nothing about ARISTOTLE'S rudeness...well I will. ARISTOTLE is brilliant, no doubt about it. There are just three teenie little problems with him as a teacher...He thinks he has a monoply on all worldly economic wisdom, he is insecure (intellectually) and he is an anus. Other than that, he's great. I look forward to his next post...I just hope it's not to me."? To you, Mr. JMB, I have this to say. AllanC seems quite competent to discuss matters of Gold, so let's let him avoid any unnecessary participation in speculative defense of my recent behavior here.
Apparently I've been on a mean streak lately to which I've been blissfully oblivious. To tell the truth, I can't recall having an August that has been any MORE enjoyable than this one in my entire life. So, we can't chalk up my latest displays of "harsh" and "rude" behavior to stress, now, can we? Perhaps, deep down, I'm nothing but a bad, bad man. All in all, when I look around, my honest assessment is, "I can definitely live with it." Why is it wrecking YOUR day? Goldhunter and Adam Hamilton, if anyone, ought to be the ones calling for my hide or for my immediate banishment.
To your point, yes, you are correct--on Aug. 23rd, Goldhunter did raise a topic (to say nothing of HIS tone) that was worthy of a well-considered answer. I would like to think that he got this from both individuals who addressed his thoughts: me and Trail Guide. Again, I am surprised that you, a simple bystander to the exchange, felt compelled to raise such a ruckus over this. Which of my two posts, (8/23/2000; 12:40:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 35412) , or (8/23/2000; 13:46:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35416) was the more offensive, and in what regard? While you suggest that I was "unnecessarily rude," my perception remains that I was "precisely and necessarily direct," and for that I offer no apology, as none is needed.
To end on an agreeable note, I certainly appreciate that you have shown me a measure of kindness in pointing out *only* three "teenie little problems" with me "as a teacher." I am certain that the reasons abound, and I shall be thankful if others refrain from adding to this otherwise important list, for I make no claim here as "teacher." I didn't come here to be a "teacher," nor did I come here to be liked, nor abused. As a matter of fact, my expectation was (and remains so) that I would fit in rather poorly and rub many people the wrong way because I have long since evolved from my earliest being as someone who listened fast, thought faster, and talked fastest. There was a time I gave very little thought to the nature of the money I earned and spent and saved. But as certain thoughts drew me years ago to investigate Gold, as a result of my reckless nature I listened too attentively to the standard Goldbug rhetoric of others and was not well-served regarding the influence it had on my pursuit of clearer monetary understanding or on my discussions with others on this subject. Fortunately I had no investment commitments during that period of tainted perspective, so only my perception of monetary affairs was temporarily damaged, not my meager savings at the time.
Fortunately, my mother raised me right, and I still possessed the capacity to think for myself despite the heavy influences of the Goldbug dogma I had eagerly absorbed with gusto. As I came to realize how many pieces of their puzzle didn't fit, I came to see that the explanation was owing to the well-intentioned reason that much of the "standard Goldbug rhetoric" was based on idealism. Well, that's fine and all, and something worthy to strive for, but in the end, we all must live in a pragmatic world. Happily for the buggiest Goldbugs, this same pragmatism also renders equally null and void the successful implementations of any notions of an idealistic paper-only world as seen in the wildest dreams of Keynesians, governments, and many bankers. As things are, Gold has a very important role squarely in the middle of a pragmatic world, yet too few people give much "theoretical thought" to this middle ground. Arguments are always made from the merits of the lofty points on opposite ends of a pendulum's arc. Pointless for making meaningful progress, to be sure, but God bless the idealists, anyway. (For the record, the Goldbug (Goldheart!) idealism--however unworkable it happens to be--is at least noble in the "eyes" of the individual human spirit, whereas the paper idealism is not.)
After a period of slower talking and deeper thinking, I arrived at a position with a realistic eye on the middle ground giving me clearer monetary understanding as it works in the real world, and also how it COULD in fact (and should) be made to work immeasurably better. Simply put, my thoughts had evolved from their starting point, and I became comfortable with my own concepts of a unique kind of monetary idealism that existed at the nadir--the bottom of the pendulum's arc. Despite reservations about beginning to share such radical monetary thoughts at this Goldbug-infested forum, in truth, it happens to be the finest economics discussion forum to be found anywhere on the web, and the credit goes to the good hosts (MK and TC) along with the high quality of those individuals who "infest" it. And to my delight, there are in fact some here, past and present, (I won't name them because it is obvious to them who they are) who also have grappled this monetary pendulum at the "perfect bottom" at the risk of receiving slings and arrows from those feeling ill-tempered on any given day who occupy the "perfect top" on either side--although given the Golden nature of this forum, our position at the bottom center surely looks like the opposite paper side due to the complete absence of those folks making their case here. In their presence, I have been further nurtured and heartened in my convictions that the international monetary system could and seemingly IS evolving toward this position.
Such has been my evolution toward monetary "enlightenment," and such is my position here--as a pilgrim, not a teacher--at the very bottom and on the fringe of the admirable and idealistic gentlemen who gather here to share their thoughts and visions of a better world and a better monetary system. I certainly didn't come here as perhaps some of the traders have--after having gotten themselves into an investment hole, hoping to argue, defend, and justify their way out of it. I don't feel stressed or defensive in any degree because my investment strategy has not put me on the ropes as others perhaps are. I have maintained a savings/investment position that is consistent with my understanding of how the world works, and to that end, I hold physical Gold at this time in such a large percentage of my net worth that most Gold bugs would tarnish green with envy, or else think ME to be the idealistic one.
Believe it or not, Gold within the system I endeavor to describe during my time here, though my views are unpopular, will be far more valuable (yes, and priced accordingly) than Gold ever could be in the more popular Gold-standard system. Such a radical vision? It promises vast wealth (for current Gold owners) AND international monetary stability (for everyone), whereas the Gold-standard vision won't propel your physical Gold near as high in value and has already shown itself in the past to fail under natural worldly pressures. Which system (and outcome) would YOU rather wish upon yourself and also leave to your children?
Keynes didn't call Gold itself a "barbarous relic," but he rightly called the Gold STANDARD a "barbarous relic," which is also precisely what the system of Gold derivatives and bullion banking of today has become--a relic of a clever scheme originally to offer life-support to a failing dollar-based international system at a time when the world had no other option. This patchwork scheme is no longer needed. On the other hand, freemarket physical Gold, as the pure and essential reserve/savings asset (unlent with no derivatives) is desperately needed in the modern world to indiscriminately bolster each of us along side modern currencies which are now a permanent feature in the financial landscape. Simply put, Freemarket Gold is the only way for a man to safely coexist with his currency.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
JMB
(8/25/2000; 0:51:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 35501)
AllanC
Good night Mr.C
AllanC
(8/25/2000; 0:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35500)
JMB
Mr JMB
I didn't find the reply to Goldhunter to be rude in the least. But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and I will reread it carefully tomorrow as it's now getting late.
I'm not trying to be difficult, I want to know where you're coming from since your first posting appeared. We seem to agree on a lot and it's a sad thing that we are at odds over silly things as this person or that person's personality traits. The individual in question has made an invaluable contribution to this board and no one can condone your characterization of him in this fashion. That was unfair and uncalled for!
You are welcome here but please think next time before you speak.
I'm going to bed.
JMB
(8/25/2000; 0:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35499)
Peter Asher
For tomorrow: I suggest ARISTOTLE'S 8/23/00 @ 12:40 and 13:46...#35412 & #35416.
I guess I was a little rude myself. My real point in all of this: If your elite brain trust is not polite and PATIENT with your students, you're going to end up talking to a bunch of boring old men with the same all-world perspective. Give it some thought...please.
Peter Asher
(8/25/2000; 0:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35498)
JMB (08/24/00; 23:58:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35495)
"Sheese," What was the post date and #, I'll read it again.
Tomorrow!
Peter Asher
(8/25/2000; 0:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35497)
Executive Dis -Order
So I get to the part that states "Boulet said just one non-English-speaking person who enters a business may be enough to trigger a Justice Department response."
And she says "But there are hundreds or maybe thousands of languages out there !!!"
"Marat Sade" 2000 ???
Peter Asher
(8/25/2000; 0:11:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35496)
Question for All
Many of us seem to have the same problem:
Why are typos invisable in the posting box and so blatently obvious when on the board????
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
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