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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/25/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
$5 Indian
(04/25/00; 23:33:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29357)
To Prime the Pump or Go Bust.
http://www.usagold.com
We see the Fed raising rates and Alan saying "We aren't about protecting markets". But they can't back away so fast. The consumer spending binge supports the recoveries in Asia whose loan payments support US banks and whoever loaned them through the IMF. As the Fed tightens on M1 and goes after M2 and M3........a serious liquidity crisis will ensue. Like removing the musical chairs one by one, the lack of seating will be noticed. When liquidity lockup hits and it will as interest payments exceed the abilities of those in debt to pay it all off, then the Fed will suddenly have to reverse and inject cash like trying to get an addict off of heroin. They can't do a cold turkey. They cannot raise rates as they want to keep the dollar up without causing the credit bubbles to pop due to deflation. When deflation brings on its influence it is like draining a lake, all the fish start flopping along the edges and seek deeper water. Profits are squeezed, layoffs occur to show a profit. It becomes late '98 all over again. In an election year they want to keep M1 near wide open but the foreign held dollars threaten to drop the dollars value so how can they keep inflating on the domestic scene while on the international scene dollars are flooding out all over? I personally don't understand alot of it. This is just another macroeconomic rabbit trail that takes from what others have said and adds on a little. I think the key to the POG now is the foreign investment flows into the US to find a home for big float. And with the stick markits doing a 30% retrace as is all that the best analysts see and "a good time to sell out" there is no way the foreignors are going to jump in to get burned twice. Some rollover WILL occur, the Naz and Dow are not going back up into the ionisphere. Look at it, secondary junk is sitting dead where it fell. No breadth to the rallyback means it was no rally only a call for suckers to re-enter to face the next break. It's going up fast as lightening now. Giant gains, and it's going to come down in giant down gaps. Every investor is spooked the way MSFT does the 10 pt down gaps. Don't keep a loaded gun in the house if you want to play "hold and burn" with tech paper. When you start hearing analysts talking about P/E ratois it's time to redraw the plans for your ranch in the outback. The "ruler of reality" when applied to this market will cause it to crash.
The whole dollar prop up game is going to land at the steps of the Bank of Japan. My guess.........Mori-san is going to be told to tell off the Fed by US industry cronies who do not want Gore elected. Japan secretly wants to make some deal with China to get under their nuclear umbrella. (longshot theory) but think about it. When the biggest market is your "enemy" then don't you want to become buddy-buddies with them? And your old friend that is a saturated market, do you need them for a friend?
The monetarist theory that a government can print money equal to productivity gains is correct and fair as I see it. Why should money appreciate all by itself, that's called deflation. So over a 20 yr period in the US all the dollars printed that used to be backed by real production had their redemptions slowly transfered to the service sector. Even the tech sector can be service (software)......it's real if it supports production or if it reduces consumption of real commodities. It's "spoof service"if it supports service only. The dollar that used to be backed by US manufacturing is now backed by services??? Now we go through a recession and remove alot of the services. We now have no economy. Food, bombs, planes and CD-Roms have to export something to soak up big float. Without the ability to redeam and reduce Big Float, we cannot run the trade deficit up and not have it get sensetive to drop the dollar accordingly. The currency war is the game of trying to hold on to world currency reserve status. Europe and Asia want to get out from under the dollar and capture that advantage for themselves. Europe will never make it without the heavy hand of Germany rolling over the slackers. "Negotiated deregulation" is their answer as to how they can simulate an American successful economy. With one dictator rising up leading them out of the mire. SOS. Same old *$#@!%. Wait and see. The Euro is multicolored toilet paper until they deregulate.
The EURO will never become strong until they deregulate European industry and get those Euros redeamable in real goods competitively priced. And to allow other nations holding loans in Euros to have access to exporting products to Europe to earn Euros to pay back the loans. It will never work because of the German's mindset to despise a "Laizay Fare" system that allows wide open deregulation. Germany wants to control all inflows and outflows. That to them is the perfect system. If you set up a system that is so controlled, them every labor organization and special interest group will hassle the politicians to keep things locked up for their benefits. No pain of deregulation, then no gain for the Euro. You cannot put a big fence around Europe and keep everyone else out and then say "Take these paper Euros and sit on them." The American system of open currency flow in or out of the US, easy to export into or export out of, and superior telecommunications....is why the dollar rides so high. If the ECB's said they were going to back the Euro with gold it would be like admitting defeat. "Oh have to pull out the gold card", "Can't back your funny paper with competitively produced goods and services?" Who knows maybe the gold card is all they've got because they sure can't deregulate.
The American economy is seriously flawed if you are inside looking out but the world doesn't live in the fishbowl of the beltway. Outside looking in they see this American economy as some unbelievable snowballing technology monster they wish they had because it sucks up capital investment and doesn't give it back. That is why our only hope for gold is when these other economies get on their feet and out from under the dollar vise. I just want to see fairness.
Thanks for posting that Dylan song. $5 Indian
ThaiGold
(04/25/00; 21:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 29356)
Tuesday's PATSY Index
Attn: Peter Asher: Pair-A-Phrases for You.
===========================================================
...
...
...
Tuesday's PATSY Report
4-25-2000
To: ALL
The nightly PATSY Index shows the relative
amount that GoldBugs have been conipulated.
XAU=55.33 + POG=276.70 + POS=5.02
-equals-
337.05
Down -2.04 from Monday. Silver up 1.4 percent.
Comment: Obviously a MarketCorrection, after yesterday's
spectacular +0.02 gain in the PATSY. Profit taking for
sure. Your profits. My profits. Taken again. Are these
markets... or wringers.?.
Prediction: More (or less) of the same.
Note: To Peter Asher
Here's a Pair-A-Phrases to add to the paraphrase you originated.
Maybe what Santayana should have said, or meant, was:
"History, is a RePlay of the Future."
-or-
"Investing, is a PrePay of the Future."
ThaiGold...
Got Some.?. ... Get Some.!.
===========================================================
Bonedaddy
(04/25/00; 21:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 29355)
The complete Dylan quote
Haunting isn't it?
UNION SUNDOWN
(Words and Music by Bob Dylan)
1983 Special Rider Music
Well, my shoes, they come from Singapore,
My flashlight's from Taiwan,
My tablecloth's from Malaysia,
My belt buckle's from the Amazon.
You know, this shirt I wear comes from the Philippines
And the car I drive is a Chevrolet,
It was put together down in Argentina
By a guy makin' thirty cents a day.
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way.
Well, this silk dress is from Hong Kong
And the pearls are from Japan.
Well, the dog collar's from India
And the flower pot's from Pakistan.
All the furniture, it says "Made in Brazil"
Where a woman, she slaved for sure
Bringin' home thirty cents a day to a family of twelve,
You know, that's a lot of money to her.
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way.
Well, you know, lots of people complainin' that there is no work.
I say, "Why you say that for
When nothin' you got is U.S.-made?"
They don't make nothin' here no more,
You know, capitalism is above the law.
It say, "It don't count 'less it sells."
When it costs too much to build it at home
You just build it cheaper someplace else.
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way.
Well, the job that you used to have,
They gave it to somebody down in El Salvador.
The unions are big business, friend,
And they're goin' out like a dinosaur.
They used to grow food in Kansas
Now they want to grow it on the moon and eat it raw.
I can see the day coming when even your home garden
Is gonna be against the law.
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way.
Democracy don't rule the world,
You'd better get that in your head.
This world is ruled by violence
But I guess that's better left unsaid.
From Broadway to the Milky Way,
That's a lot of territory indeed
And a man's gonna do what he has to do
When he's got a hungry mouth to feed.
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way.
Bonedaddy
(04/25/00; 21:13:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29354)
The common denominator
As I read these pages I am greatly impressed by the sum total of all the knowledge possessed by those posting here. There is no where else that I know of, where one can gain such a complete understanding of the fundamental principles of currencies and the motives that drive their values. It seems fitting to me that such discussions should take place on a GOLD forum. I must admit to being overwhelmed most times by all of the intellectual discussion about markets and currencies. While it is truly fascinating discussion and all totally relevant, I find my feeble mind frequently attempting to "cut to the chase". For those of you, probably lurkers more than any others who share my affliction, take heart! To survive the melee of market manipulations, in high style, you only need to understand a few things. All of the currencies are basically backed by nearly identical representations of power and wealth. Call them governments if you wish, but each cadre of institutions has a single common denominator. It has it's own best interests at heart. The Japanese manipulate the yen. The British manipulate the pound. The Americans manipulate the dollar. Currency traders try to understand these manipulations and in some cases attempt to institute their own rigged games. The world is at WAR! Right now it's a currency war, but a war just the same. The real financial truth of this age is that all of the worlds currencies, stocks, and bonds derive their values from public feeling. So it's pshycological warfare. The herd wonders here and the flock stampedes there, but in the heart of every true investor is the GOLD STANDARD. Every entity hawking a side show of investment instruments shares this one common denominator, A FEAR Of GOLD! This fear is what generates the calls for GOLD confiscation when the surrogate currencies fail. FOR SIX THOUSAND YEARS GOLD HAS SURVIVED EVERY GOVERNMENT AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM ON THE PLANET. The current round of manipulations is much like the ones foisted on the generations that came before us. Each generation (80 years or so)suffers the same horrible collapse of its financial system. I'll leave the actual timing up to you, but the result is the same. When all the paper falls from grace, only the GOLD stands tall. Ancient script is of interest only to currency collectors as memorabilia of a bygone era and a once great system that failed. So, all this fear of GOLD confiscation is really a fear of your lack of ability or resolve. Your resolve to defy the attempts of the theives dressed in the robes of "public servants" and your ability to resist the same.
Democracey doesn't rule the world,
you better get that through your head.
This world is ruled by violence,
but that's better left unsaid.
- Bob Dylan
Journeyman
(04/25/00; 20:29:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29353)
Your welcome! @R Powell msg#: 29338
Glad you found the article worthy!
Regards, J.
R Powell
(04/25/00; 20:04:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29352)
Harley Davidson
An article on page 10 of today's Investor's Business Daily talks of productivity, inflation, rate hikes and real earnings. Also comments that the deficit is growing.
** "Slower consumer spending also would trim the deficit.
** "The Fed also is eyeing the super-tight labor market, as the jobless rate is near a 30 year low. Oddly, average real hourly earnings- which account for inflation- haven't risen to reflect the scarce commodity. In fact, they've started to DROP. Economists point to productivity gains, which allow producers to better manage their labor."
** I think some of the big float mentioned in the article Journeyman pointed out to us has inflated stock prices which (along with borrowing) has sustained demand and prolonged the market bubble's life. If real earnings are falling while prices are rising and national,corporate and consumer debt are growing?? Maybe limit up days are coming and I should also think of getting some more lids for the caning jars.
schippi
(04/25/00; 20:01:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29351)
Sound Familiar?
To be sure, the euro is where it is today also because of massive
speculation against it in Tokyo, New York and London. The momentum
players who are running the FX operations of hedge funds and banks are
on a long winning streak, and they intend to keep it going.
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 19:23:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 29350)
...However
I heard some knumbskull (Kudlow?) recently talking about exporting our way out of the current account deficit problem! That's a good one! We couldn't export our way out of a wet paper bag. Rising dollar isn't making this problem any better, now is it, AG?
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 19:20:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29349)
Manufacturing Numbers
Remember a few years ago (early 90's I think) when you would still hear about how U.S. manufacturing was doing? No longer a peep about that number, eh? No one cares...it got too depressing.
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 19:15:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 29348)
The Euro
I'm no expert on currency rates by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems to me that the Euro's "weakness" is more problematic for the Japanese than it is for us. Heck, we don't make anything anymore anyway, no wonder we can "afford" a strong dollar (not really, but you know what I mean).
Harley Davidson
(04/25/00; 19:12:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29347)
@ R Powell, thanks for reposting Journeyman's link...
I read the article - BIG-FLOAT: The American Damocles with interest but when I got to the end of the story and read the following footnote, I paused, mostly because I understand little of things economic.
[5] Milton Friedman got his Economics Nobel Prize for proving that money manufacturers could increase the money supply by an amount equal to the value of any increase in goods and services traded in a currency without causing the value of that currency to drop. A school of economics called "monetarism" and embodied in the "Chicago School" was founded as a result. What actually happens is that the "inflation" caused by the money creation is masked by the productivity increases. This allows the money manufacturers to, undetected, create and spend an amount of money equivalent to the increased production. This amount is essentially stolen from buyers who would otherwise receive it as decreased prices -- if there were a truly stable money supply, such as provided by an honestly convertible gold standard.
Ok, so what I see here is that if we have productivity gains, the money manufacturers can rip us off via a little inflation that gets hidden by the increase in productivity. Actually, its not hidden very well because if there are productivity gains and prices don't go down, you know you've just been ripped off and it was probably by that guy who was telling you all about the productivity gains! Sheessh, Alan, I like sex as much as the next guy but I've never been screwed like this before! And I didn't even get kissed!
Anyway, if we have all of the productivity that Mr. Greenspan & Co claims, then why don't we have lower prices? Hmm? Possible answers are: (A.) We don't have the productivity AG claims we have. (B.) We have the productivity AG claims we have but we don't have lower prices because, as the last sentence says, "it is essentially stolen from buyers who would otherwise receive it as decreased prices." And lastly, (C.) Which is actually (A.) plus (B.) We don't have the productivity AG claims, rather the illusion of productivity (IOP) is perpetuated i.e. (hedonics and manipulated price of gold, etc., etc.) but we still don't have lower prices because "it is essentially stolen from buyers who would otherwise receive it as decreased prices."
I hope the answer isn't (C.) If prices are where they are today with all of this productivity, real or imagined, then what are prices going to do when productivity or the illusion of productivity (IOP) slows down. Ouch!!!
It appears that not only do we have a stock market that must continue to climb, but it also looks like our productivity (another bubble?) must also continue to climb or at least the illusion of productivity(IOP) must appear to continue to climb.
HI - HAT
(04/25/00; 18:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29346)
Intent
We are all as humans very much alike, yet uniquely march ever so to different drum beats.
Now is the time to intend a razor sharp conviction. Gold in hand demarcates who is the hunter and who is the prey.
No one gives you power, you take it.
R Powell
(04/25/00; 18:33:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 29345)
Weakness of Euro?
It's been my understanding that as Batra states "Not a single currency unit of Euroland buys more than one dollar, but the euro does." This was written before the euro sank to parity with the dollar. Makes sense to me. Shouldn't the euro's worth be somewhere between the weakest and strongest of the national currencies that constitute Euroland. Also, what better way to improve exports than to make (or let them become) more affordable to the rest of the world. Improving exports and thus increasing economic growth and lowering unemployment should be one of their main objectives. I believe TPTB in Euroland have enough paper debt so that they could defend the exchange rate if they chose to but why should they?
SHIFTY
(04/25/00; 18:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 29344)
N.Y. PONZI
Nasdaq 3,711.23 + Dow 11,124.82 = 14,836.05 devide by 2 = N.Y. PONZI 7,418.02
UP 223.73 PONZI Points !!!!
Trail Guide
(04/25/00; 18:01:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29343)
Comment
WAC (Wide Awake Club) (04/25/00; 08:31:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29304)
Sterling
WAC (Wide Awake Club) (04/25/00; 08:15:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29303)
--------------------------
Hello WAC!
I read your Buiter article and it was good. Concerning the British "higher ups" thinking they have engineered the economy and this has put a premium on the Pound: he puts the MPC in their place by saying "It's just twaddle"
Ha! Ha! WAC, I'm glad you found that item!
And he is so right in his perception. Just as you quoted: "It is just some big and largely irrational confidence discount on the euro and the ECB. And that will pass."
It seems like the entire dollar thinking world is on some new level of perception. Yet, their treasuries (and CBs) are just bankrupting everything that's left of the system and doing it in double time now.
Thank you for your realistic views in (usagold.com msg#: 29304).
-------
I think the key word here is FUNDAMENTALS. The UK economy is been completed decimated. ---------
We will later see the effects of all this as it is played out in what MK calls "the currency wars". War is truly a much better name for it. While Western investors are preparing for a little $100 or $200 rise in paper gold (and worrying about how their paper gold substitutes will hold up until we get there), the whole damn dollar arena is on fire.
Everyone asks the same question you do about dollar arena currencies: "So, why does sterling continue to rise relentlessly?" Yet, in this day and time strength in these major currencies comes during a crisis. It's going to shock a lot of investors at how fast price inflation runs once the wars really get started. After the gold markets implode,
physical will rush as never before seen in history. Exciting times my friend!
Trail Guide
Trail Guide
(04/25/00; 17:59:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 29342)
Comment
USAGOLD (04/25/00; 10:06:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29316)
Michael,
Thank you so much for having that item. More than a few of us need to refresh our minds about that. Good stuff my friend!
Trail Guide
Trail Guide
(04/25/00; 17:58:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 29341)
Comment
Cavan Man (04/25/00; 08:12:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29302)
Trail Guide.......Still with you....CM
--------------
Thank you Cavan Man!
The game is getting real hot now. The dollar and Yen are being gunned up to the point that their economies must become printing presses and no longer sell anything outside their borders. Right now there is almost nothing the Japanese can sell into Euroland at a profit! Japan needs desperately to sell more now and do so at a profit. The US is almost becoming a dollar exporting machine as the exchange markets begin to kill even their high tech exports.
It's going to continue until the Fed is forced from a crisis to cut rates to the bone (just like Japan). Then,,,,,,, exchange rates and price inflation will do their dirty work. Once that break happens, prices will suddenly jump ahead of the yield curve and the race will be on for the fed to follow it. It will evolve into the greatest inflation ever to impact a world currency.
Physical gold will be the easiest holding to sit through all this with.
Thanks Trail Guide
Trail Guide
(04/25/00; 17:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29340)
Comment
Hello Mr. Gresham!
Mr Gresham (04/25/00; 09:47:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29313)
Trail Guide #29301
think we could re-finance the house in Euros? Before the rush begins?
------------------
TG:
Oh, lord no! Not if you live in the US (smile). I think one could just buy some well located (in a safe area) homes financed in dollars (or cash (smile)) and hold them for the great run. I have done just that and am adding.
If one can buy (a home) in Euroland, plan on using it, not selling for dollar profits. I fully well expect big time exchange controls as this blows up. This is the same reason many investors save in Euros (and other currencies) in addition to local dollars. They don't bet on it (Euros) because it's a long term hedge as is.
---------------
Of course we'd have to hedge the future Euro/dollar rise, since we earn in dollars. That would be a call on Euros, or maybe a put on Tbonds (call on TYX). Just throw us on that $80 trillion derivative heap. Of course, we'd be first in line for collecting. Not!
Then we could broker our neighbors getting in on Euro re-fi's. Get our own Euro carry trade going.(Just think of the fees!) Oh, but the unwinding (big grimace!) ahead!
-------------
TG:
Yes, I have the same expression thinking about it. Some real serious international money is going to be in court for years trying to unravel it all.
Thanks
Trail Guide
R Powell
(04/25/00; 17:07:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 29339)
Seconds
Mr. beesting, I'll second your nominations. After all, the man was nice enough to give me a free gold coin.
Seems like the least I could do.
R Powell
(04/25/00; 17:01:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29338)
Explanation of Big Float
http://www.thespiritof76.com/bigfloat.html
The link above was posted by Journeyman on 4/23/00. I printed it out and just today got a chance to read it. I'm reposting it because I think it is too good to go unnoticed. Thanks Journeyman!
RS
(04/25/00; 16:05:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29337)
Perplexed..... (msg 29326) ...... thank you for the citation
Thank you Perplexed.
One couldn't be more explicit than the quotation you've given us, it would seem to me.
------------------------------------------------------
There is little else I enjoy in this life as much as gaining greater understanding of my rights as an American.
The public schools I attended were a bit remiss in this area.
How can one respect the rights of others without a firm understanding of one's own?
beesting
(04/25/00; 15:31:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29336)
USAGOLD #29316 and #29317
Mr. Kosares, those posts were of such value in Gold education I would like to nominate them both for entry into The USAGOLD Hall of Fame. Thank You!
We need three seconds for this nomination to pass!
Two questions came to mind that you may or may not be able to answer:
Is there a dollar limit on the amount of Gold or Gold coins a collector may legally bring into the U.S.,and is there a duty tax?
Second question:
When hand carrying Gold or Gold coins out of the U.S. do you know what agency could supply information concerning entry of a collectors collection into foriegn countries? Duties,fees,limits, restrictions, etc.
Again my deepest appreciation for offering this educational Gold forum to us.....beesting.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/25/00; 15:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29335)
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/
Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release
Release Date: April 25, 2000
Rates for Monday, April 24, 2000
Federal funds 5.90
Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.80
10-year 6.00
20-year 6.20
30-year 5.86
upside down spread FF vs long bond = (.04%)
Christopher
(04/25/00; 13:55:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29334)
Leigh
Yes, in my mind I did seem to associate that number with the writings of Another, but was not entirely positive. I will delve into the "Thoughts" of Another and see if I can find the reference. Thank you so much.
Christopher
Christopher
(04/25/00; 13:47:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 29333)
lamprey 65
You are absolutely right, the human mind will do its utmost to find the loophole that allows the human to walk by self-will. Very astute observation about Leviticus, and Correct as well. Our God demands strict adherance to His way and his way only. As the proverb states..."there is a way that seems right to a man..."
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 13:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29332)
Something else to think about
"...they are endowed by their Creator by certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness..."
Notice the word "among"...leading one to believe that there could possibly be more (Jefferson, et al did not presume to know everything!).
Personally, I believe there is a right to privacy...but not in the way interpreted by the court in relation to abortion. All this just shows how if something is not spelled out in great detail or is easily misconstrued (unfortunately, like the 2nd amendment), then it will be. Is there any wonder why Leviticus is so painfully detailed!
Leigh
(04/25/00; 13:25:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 29331)
Christopher
Dear Christopher: The $30,000 figure was first predicted by ANOTHER (FOA's friend) several years ago. You can find some of his writings if you go to the Gold Trail site and click on ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!). Unfortunately, if gold rises to that level, the dollar will be in shambles, and the price of everything will be sky-high.
Elwood, thank you for your explanation about the S&P Futures the other night!
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 13:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29330)
AREM
I believe that's a point several here are making...namely, once the 2nd amendment is ignored (just as the Constitution's call for gold and silver coinage is ignored), then what will be ignored next and how will you defend yourself and your property? The courts are less and less reliable as defenders of the Constitution and the great mass of people are ignorant of the facts or prefer to ignore them.
Here is another major problem I see...
Any severe economic downturn will now be met with further socialist-type solutions by government, and actually - the economy can now be used as an excuse...just ask F.D.R.
Farfel
(04/25/00; 13:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 29329)
Sorry Michael But I MUST Talk About KITCO Today
Nothing amuses me more on days like today than watching the superabundance of anti-gold types (Leonard Kaplan, Jims, etc.) posting prolifically about the death of gold and the great joys of the "The Trend is Your Friend" on the OTHER gold forum.
Whenever the Nasdaq or Dow are soaring and gold is falling, they appear like bugs out of the woodwork (and to think they call us Goldbugs???), determined to discourage gold investors and convince them to liquidate their holdings and convert them to the current market favorites, notably high techs. No surprise, since as funds liquidity continues to dry up in those markets, they must seek desperately new investor converts or fail to maintain the historical inflows necessary to regain verticality. As per my previous post, with May's enormous $150 billion dollars of impending lock-up sales, then a Nasdaq crash is seemingly no longer hypothetical, but simply now a question of "When?"
In Lenny Kaplan's case, he is a great believer in mania investments and since he was a great champion of mania investments at their tops, then one would expect he is down around 35% or more in many of his investments. Although he would protest that he uses market stops, if he has been buying the dips as so many Nasdaq investors have been conditioned, then he has been likely running through a lot of market stops lately. Yes, he better rustle up some more goldbug interest in his favored Nasdaq mania stocks or else....
In Jims' case, he has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for platinum and palladium, especially Stillwater Mining, which recently collapsed and is racing to establish a 52 week low. Yes, he better quickly convince some more discouraged gold investors to sell their gold stocks and convert them to SWC or else...
Of course, whenever the Dow or Nasdaq are trashing and gold is soaring, these same inveterate anti-gold types almost always disappear from Kitco. They thrive on gold investors' defeat and discouragement, they cannot stand to witness their victories.
How sad for them, how encouraging for gold investors.
The anti-gold crowd's ever more frequent, desperate efforts to persuade are a signal of a profound psychological market shift now taking place.
Reminds me when goldbugs (like myself) were just as desperate to persuade beginning back in '96 (the gold market top for the past decade).
It all tells me this stock market has much farther to fall.
Thanks
F*
AREM
(04/25/00; 13:01:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29328)
Absurdity of Gold Confiscation - Regarding your posting - RS (04/25/00; 10:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29319)
I totally concur with what you said about an order to confiscate gold being null and void since it is contrary to the U.S. Constitution. And I also agree when you said that our government can't steal what they cannot find.
In this new era of the Internet, we easily generate instant mass protests. I feel confident that the protests that would be generated by any such stupid government action would overwhelm any politician who didn't resist any executive order to confiscate gold.
If push came to shove, the government would be a lot more likely to receive lead rather than gold.
Christopher
(04/25/00; 12:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29327)
$30,000/oz?
I would like to know the origination of this number that I have seen used frequently, on this forum, since I have been present some year or so ago. I would like to question its validity and its origination. Where did it come from, and why has it been used so much. It is a beautiful number, and I have been catching myself using it, but I do not want to mislead myself or others, and I am afraid it seems too beautiful right now.
Thank you gentlemen and Ladies.
p.s.(Thank you Leigh for your fine compliment, I enjoy your posts so much)
Christopher
Perplexed
(04/25/00; 12:42:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29326)
Legality
My thanks to all who have contributed to my education and especially to those who so graciously provide the forum. Much of the recent discussion has centered around the
confiscation of gold, the legislation that percipitated it, items exempted from the order,and the amending of the legislation. The one thing not considered is the lawfulness of thlegislation. There is a big difference between that which is lawful and that which is legal. This difference is the basis for the uproar over "reasonable" gun legislation (legality) and the Second Amendment to the Constitution. (lawful) Weapons and gold have always co-existed to either deprive the lawful owners of the gold or to prevent the theft, it's not likely to change. If an attempt is made to confiscate either or both, this nation will desend very rapidly into choas, the river of paper "wealth" will cease to flow, and the owenership of the existing wealth will be in grave doubt. The people who own these paper titles are not anxious to have this happen. Lets look at a document which has existed for many years, and compare these "laws’ to it. This judicial time bomb may be found in the Sixteenth American Jurisprudence, Second Edition, Section 177. A statement with many long years of lawful as well as legal standing: Quote
" The general misconceptions is that any statute passed by legislators bearing the appearance of law constitutes the law of the land. The U.S. Constitution is the suprem law of the land, and any statute, to be valid,must be in agreement. It is impossible for both the Constitution and a law violating it to be valid; one must prevail.This is succinetly stated as follows: the general rule is that an unconstitutional statute, though having the form and name of law, is in reality no law, but is wholly void, and ineffective for any purpose; since unconstitutionality dates from the time of its enactment, and not merely from the date of the decision so branding it. An unconstitutional law, in legal contemplation, is as inoperative as if it had never been passed. Such a statute leaves the question that it purports to settle just as it would be had the statue not been enacted. Since an unconstitutional law is void, the general principles follow that it imposes no duties,confers no rights, creates no office, bestows no authority on anyone, affords no protection, and justifies no acts performed under it. A void act cannot be legally consistent
with a valid one. An unconstitutional law cannot operate to supersede any existing valid law. Indeed insofar as a statue runs counter to the fundamental law of the land, it is
superseded thereby. No one is bound to obey an unconstitutional law and no courts are bound to enforcement it." End
Since legality, which runs counter to lawful can only exist to the extent that it can be enforced, what do you think will be the first thing confiscated?
Christopher
(04/25/00; 12:39:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29325)
USAGOLD msgs.#29316,29317
Good Afternoon
Thank you Mr Kosares for that very informative excerpt from Mr. Hoppe's book. One thing that struck me forcibly as I read it(other than the wealth of information and insight produced by Mr Hoppe) was that I doubt a senior from one of our public schools could, Today, sit down and be able to read and comprehend this well written article for face value, much less the deeper lessons that are provided by educated thought and discernment in relation to the information it contained. Why? Too many polysyllabic words. It saddens me to think how mean modern literature has become.
Elwood
(04/25/00; 12:36:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29324)
aunuggets (04/25/00; 12:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29322)
Well said, sir.
Elwood
(04/25/00; 12:32:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 29323)
Gold Exports and "Timing"
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/goldxports.xls
I've done some research to see if the rising gold exports have much historical significance in the last 10 years. You might be surprised at the results. Check the Excel 97 chart. It shows 5 previous instances of accelerating outflows at "opportune" times such as just before the Asian crisis, during the Mexican crisis and just preceding the Russian default and LTCM.
If the "smart money" thinks something is gonna happen then it looks like they run to gold. Maybe we should, too, eh?
aunuggets
(04/25/00; 12:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29322)
Elwood and RS
Elwood # 29293 --
Thank you sir. The "premium plays" can indeed be one route to increasing one's net holdings in AU. My original "induction" into the PMs was in fact via pure numismatics, and much of that "net" today was based on areas other than gold coins, most notably Morgan and Peace silver dollars in top grades. We spent many a weekend throughout the '70s "cherry-picking" the top grade silver dollars at coin shows across the nation, most of which were liquidated in the early '80s at very significant profits. Those were the "good old days" of the silver dollar craze. Many of the more common pieces purchased at $10 to $12 apiece were later sold at $300 to $500 each, this during the same time period as the PMs were also skyrocketing. Of course, we did hold some PMs as well, but numismatic value was our primary forte at the time, and we did very well. Then as now, watching and waiting for depressed PM prices seemed the most prudent ploy, and again proved profitable once the right conditions came along. From '86 to '89, it was back again to numismatics, and in and out of the PMs ever since. With today's "slabbed" marketplace, it is a little more difficult to make significant profits in the collectibles, however the wide variations in coined AU premium levels does indeed offer some added "nest padding" ability at times. Like yourself, we recently "traded" back into a pure bullion play, and again away from numismatic premiums.
As long as the referee (read "government") allows the game to continue, there are still ways to stay ahead of the pack as far as our PM holdings are concerned.
-------------------------
RS
I think your comment regarding the invalidation of any law in direct violation of the constitution (upon the individual) is very well stated. All too many times, one has to watch the scales of justice as they swing from "law abider" to "law breaker". And although the individual may sit on one side of the scale while the "government" sits on the other, there are times when each side is obviously "in the wrong".
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 11:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29321)
MK - On Pre-33's
MK, I understand your reasoning here, and let me say I do own some pre-33's, but here is the real point...
They have proven they can get away with this farce once -- I don't have much faith that they would not try to push as far as they think they can again, possibly total confiscation. The bastards (excuse the language) simply cannot be trusted. We are no longer a principled people and therefore we are without a principled government - I think that much is clear...
In the 30's the majority sold their principles for the promise of greater economic security (which only the effects of WWII finally delivered) and today we are even further removed from the tenants upon which we were formed as a nation. We're in trouble and the worst part is most don't even realize it.
Farfel
(04/25/00; 11:48:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29320)
Stock Markets Have ONE More Week Left Before Big Trouble
As per the Wall Street Journal, IPO lock-ups are ending for approximately $150 BILLION dollars of stock (primarily Nasdaq stock!).
To put that in perspective, this past month a mere $45 billion dollars of locked-up stock was released into the market, and witness the amazing market weakness that resulted.
Soon approaching (less than seven days away), a release of locked-up stock OVER THREE TIMES greater than this month of April.
The month of MAY is shaping up to be a month of true market trouble, as Nasdaq corporate insiders attempt to dump their stock onto a much less infatuated public.
Thanks
F*
RS
(04/25/00; 10:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29319)
lamprey_65 ..... your message ID 29306 re: confiscation and criminality
I believe (can't verify at the moment) that case decisions in the Supreme Court have stated that a law passed which is repugnant to the letter and spirit of the U.S. Constitution
is automatically null and void.
Would an Executive Order which "requires" an individual to surrender his/her private gold be in contradiction to the First Amendment?
It would not be an issue for me. I would'nt feel any guilt or hesitancy to ignore such a "law" or E.O.
Government can't steal what they cannot FIND...
Seems a lot of folks were willing to accept whatever drivel came out of Washington D.C. without question 70 years ago...
I rather believe THAT has changed since then.
TheStranger
(04/25/00; 10:10:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 29318)
...just to be clear
The settlement amounts to 25% spread over three years.
USAGOLD
(04/25/00; 10:10:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29317)
The rest of Hoppe.....
By some obscure and tenuous logic ODGSO also required ( until 1969 ) a
permit to import pre-1934 gold coins, even though the purchase or possession (
or both ) of such coins was unrestricted within the United States. I might add
that the majority of applicants desiring to import pre-1933 gold coins were
invariably refused.
The author once applied for a permit to import some pre-1933 Mexican gold
coins offered by a Canadian dealer. The license was refused, even though the
coins under consideration were the rarest of their series and selling for more
than twice their intrinsic value, on the grounds that they were "not of
exceptional numismatic value within the meaning of the Treasury Department
Gold Regulations." In reply, I could only point out, politely ( and in vain ) , that
the Treasury Department Gold regulations, which ODGSO was supposed to be
administering, stated without qualification that all gold coins made prior to 1934
were to be considered of "recognized special value to collectors." The spectacle
of federal regulatory agencies regulating themselves in a circle is at times
wondrous to behold.
Fortunately, the 1954 amendments are now a well-established precedent, and
they provided at least a basic protection for the numismatic gold collector.
Furthermore, although it has required a change of administrations, ODGSO has
finally come to recognize that some of its interpretations of the gold rules have
been, in the words of its new director, "of dubious merit."
On April 22, 1969, the Gold Regulations of the U.S. Treasury Department were
amended to correct the obvious and unreasonable inconsistency introduced by
Executive Order 11037, issued July 20, 1962, which required, among other
things, a permit from ODGSO for the importation of pre-1934 gold coins. The
new director of ODGSO, Mr. Thomas Wolfe, appointed by the Nixon
Administration, admitted candidly that "it really didn't make a lot of sense" for
ODGSO to prohibit or confiscate a pre-1934 gold coin coming from abroad,
when the collector could walk across the street and buy the same coin in the
U.S. without restriction.
Therefore, the provisions requiring a license to import pre-1934 gold coins were
eliminated. Collectors and dealers in the U.S. are now free to import such
coins, provided they are genuine, subject only to the usual customs regulations
and import duties. Counterfeits or restrikes, however, are subject to
confiscation, regardless of a pre-1934 date. The Gold Regulations were further
amended to require import licenses only for gold coins struck from 1934
through 1959. The granting of such licenses is to be subject to the usual
criterion of judgement. No gold coins struck after 1959 will be admitted, except
for those issues already granted exemption by ODGSO prior to April 30, 1969.
( A list of the exempt post-1959 gold coins will be found on page 286. )
The 1969 modifications of the Gold Regulations bring a welcome breath of
fresh air into the bureaucratic smog that has shrouded the rulings and statements
of the Treasury and ODGSO since 1961. However, one can only regret the
arbitrary cut-off date of 1959, which automatically excludes such highly
desirable numismatic treasures as the Canadian $20 centennial gold coin of
1967, and most of the post-1960 commemorative gold coins of Israel.
Fortunately, past history has demonstrated that common sense eventually
triumphs, even in the Treasury; we can therefore continue to hope that the
absolute 1960 cut-off ruling will also be re-considered one day.
By contrast, however, British gold collectors were apparently dealt a severe
blow when in 1966 the Bank of England issued regulations requiring the
registration of all coin collectors and limiting collectors to no more than four
gold coins minted after 1837. But fortunately, as was the case with the original
numismatic provisions of our own Gold Reserve Act of 1934, these rules were
softened considerably in their administration. Although not specifically stated in
the regulations, it has been made known that "collectors may possess two gold
coins or sets of any one type or series, that is, two 1887 five-pound pieces, two
1902 two-pound pieces, two 1937 proof sets, etc. - only holders of large
quantities of common-date sovereigns will be required to surrender them.
The citizen of the United States, if interested in acquiring a speculative or
investment position in gold, is then limited to gold-mining stocks or gold coins.
The citizen of Great Britain has the same options except that he is much more
limited in the are of coins. The natives of Canada, France, Switzerland,
Germany, South Africa, and innumerable other areas of the world, presumably
not as far along on the path of enlightenment as we, are free to do as they please
regarding gold.
There has been some talk that once gold was successfully demonetized by the
U.S., the free holding of gold by its citizens would be permitted. If this is ever
tried, it will be as a last desperate bluff to prove that the dollar is better than
gold. But like our former policies of trying to hold down the international price
of gold by selling it freely through the London "gold pool" and trying to hold
down the price of silver through massive Treasury sales, it will be just another
phenomenal failure. By its demented economic and fiscal policies of the last
three decades, the U.S. government has forfeited all confidence in its ability to
maintain the value of its currency. If U.S. citizens were now granted the right to
cash in some of their paper dollars for gold, what is left of our national gold
reserve would disappear in a month.
In Russia and the Marxist countries of Eastern Europe, there are of source no
gold-mining stocks. If it were not for the Communist ideology, however, no
doubt there would be; the Soviet Union is thought to be the third largest
producer of gold in the world ( after South Africa and Canada ) , although the
actual production figures are a closely guarded state secret. It is also reported
that the Russians pay production cost equivalent to $100 an ounce for their
gold. Despite Lenin's boast that gold would one day pave the public rest rooms
in the worker's paradise, the Russians seem to have found other uses for it -
like buying vitally needed equipment and raw materials in Europe, Africa, and
Asia.
But as we have said, private trafficking in gold bullion in the Soviet Union is
considered ( as in the United States ) a most serious crime. The state mints
occasionally issue gold commemorative coins and medals, and sometimes
restrikes of older gold coins. We can assume they are sold on a strict
on-to-a-customer basis at home, although some of these restrikes have been
widely exported to the West ( and smuggled into the United States ) for
profitable sale. However, whether a tovarich can acquire a collection of gold
coins without arousing the suspicion that he is surreptitiously planning an
"economic crime" I do not know, but I imagine the mental hazards are
discouraging.
The general worldwide availability and popularity of gold coins as an
investment and speculative medium, and the rather intense activity of recent
months call for diligent, thorough and hopefully objective investigations in the
merits, hazards, techniques and problems involved in the purchase and
collection of gold coins. That is the main purpose of this volume. It is hoped
that it will also serve an auxiliary purpose by revealing something of the extent
of monetary deterioration in the West and by showing the absolute necessity, as
well as the advantages, of finding alternative stores of value to rapidly
depreciating paper currency.
USAGOLD
(04/25/00; 10:06:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29316)
Legal Precendent Favors Pre-1933 Gold Coins as a Protection Against Confiscation
" In 1954, the Treasury Department recognized at last that the time had come to legitimize the numismatic gold market. Consequently, an amendment was made to the Gold regulations, to the effect that all gold coins minted prior to 1933 would subsequently be presumed to be rare and of recognized special value to collectors, without the necessity of further specific determinations by the Treasury. Coins minted after 1933 were still subject to specific Treasury Department rulings, which were to be base on the advice of the Curator of Numismatics of the United States National Museum. All U.S. gold coins and the vast majority of foreign gold coins were thus freed from the overhanging threat of confiscation, and a new era for American numismatics appeared to begin. " Donald Hoppe, 1970
----------------------------------------
Quote above excerpted from a detailed account by Donald Hoppe written in 1970.
As a major gold dealer from the era between confiscation (1933) and legalization (1975), Mr. Hoppe was well aware of the obstacles thrown before him and the ways to help gold owners get around them legally. Rescued and reposted by Silverbarron at the Kitco site a couple years ago, I think we are lucky to have Mr. Hoppe's account and chronology as it appeared in his book, "How to Invest in Gold Coins," still available.
I was struck by a couple of things in re-reading Mr. Hoppe's work:
First, how little has changed in the battle between hard-money advocates and the neo-Keynsians.
Second, how safe we actually are as owners of pre-1933 European fractional gold coins. It is not the perfect solution to the problem of confiscation (there probably isn't one), but it is the best solution. For the government to overturn all the precedent as listed below, it would require a sea change in a legal system built on precedent and jurisprudence. In addition, at the current low premiums (comparable to similarly sized bullion coins) for pre-1933 European fractionals, coupled with the historically unprecedented low constant dollar gold price, these items, in my opinion, are a steal. In my view, the minor premium you do pay at the outset will evaporate when gold responds to the inflationary policies of the world's governments and central banks.
I will reinforce this argument with one thought: Many of you are familiar with the oft-repeated dictum that down through history an ounce of gold would always purchase a top-quality man's suit. A top-quality man's suit now sells for $600 to $700. That makes gold undervalued at this juncture in monetary history by over half. Obviously, the small premium one pays for pre-1933 European fractionals now is minor compared to the peace of mind attained, not to speak of the fact that this premium would evaporate quickly in gold market bull induced by a failed monetary policy (something I believe we are in the middle of).
----------------------------------------
"How to Invest in Gold Coins" Donald J. Hoppe, 1970 - Chapter II
THE PRIVATE CITIZEN AND GOLD TODAY
Despite the patently obvious evidence of recent years that Gresham's Law is still
irresistibly in operation, the student of monetary history and crowd psychology
may yet have some reservations about gold investing. Before deciding on gold
coins as a safe and profitable investment, with the obvious advantages already
mentioned, one may properly question the extent to which man's historic faith
in the reliability of gold as a standard of value has been or will be affected by the
thirty-four-year campaign of the Keynesian economists to escape from the
restrictions and disciplines of gold-based money. ( The question is especially
pertinent because of the defection of so many so-called conservative economists
and bankers to the viewpoints of the New Economics. )
After all, we in what the French like to call the "Anglo-Saxon camp" have been
told for a considerable time now, through our press and by the pronouncements
of even some of our highest Treasury and banking officials, that gold, like the
Deity in the eyes of some modern theologians, is dead; that the use of gold for
monetary purposes or as a store of value is, in that already well worn cliché, a
"barbarous relic." Furthermore, it is said that the sooner we are able to abandon
it completely, the better it will be for us.
But perhaps the demise of gold as the center of the monetary universe has been
reported, as was the death of Mark Twain, somewhat prematurely. Although the
obituaries continue to be published, the world remains unconvinced. If gold is
indeed dead, it has proven to be a rather lively ghost. The author's clipping files
concerning monetary subjects indicate that more press copy on the subject of
gold has been published during the last two years that at any time since the crisis
years of 1933-34. Countless reports on the future of gold and the attendant
opportunities for speculation it offers have also been prepared by private
financial advisers and services ( and sold at high prices ) since the dying relic,
the "echo of the past" has suddenly become a full-blown crisis. Some went so
far as to declare that gold was America's number-one problem. But there is still
little public agreement on whether the ancient idol will be finally and forever
toppled from his throne or restored once more to past glory.
In the author's opinion, the decisive vote was give in 1967 and 1968, when
repeated waves of gold speculation swept the gold markets of the world,
shaking its very monetary foundations, breaking up the London gold pool and
its fixed $35 per ounce gold price and forcing the devaluation of the British
pound sterling. The most revealing part of these episodes was that they imposed
an ignominious retreat on the neo-Keynesian money managers of the West. In
being forced into a tightfisted defense of their stockpiles of monetary gold, the
position of the money managers would have been ludicrous but for the tragic
effects of the inflation that had already eroded the wealth and vitality of
countless peoples.
Ironically, it was these practitioners of the New Economics who had insisted all
along that gold was only a superstition, a vestige of a barbarous past, and that
we would have been better off to dump it all into the sea. But now that it has
apparently been found necessary, for the moment at least, for the United States
and its partners in financial experiment to defend at all costs ( that is, with
whatever further sacrifices may be required of their citizens ) what is left of their
monetary gold stocks, it may be suggested ( with tongue in cheek ) that we
dump our money managers into the sea instead.
However, it is obvious that the present show of defending gold by Britain and
the United States, through various austerity programs, exchange controls, high
taxes, etc., is a tactical expedient only. The ultimate goal remains the
implementation of some new international paper-money scheme, an eventual
total devaluation of the dollar, and the complete demonetization of gold.
Therefore, stability in the price of gold and an end to the long-term inflation that
has accompanied the ascendancy of the New Economics are nowhere in sight.
Additional waves of gold speculation, gold-buying panics and recurrent gold
crises are not only probable but inevitable.
What part the citizen of the United States and his British cousin have played in
these events has been somewhat restricted, legally at least, by the actions of
their respective governments. They have been prohibited by law and regulation
from direct participation in the purchase, sale or ownership of gold in bullion or
monetary form.
In most other civilized lands ( and some that are not so civilized ) the ownership
of bar gold and gold in any other form is not only permitted but, as in the case
of France and Switzerland, often tacitly encouraged. These enlightened
countries believe that gold in the hands of private citizens is an aid to internal
economic stability and complements rather that competes with the official
reserves of their central banks. By allowing the free use of gold as a store of
value, the other Western countries have eased somewhat the burden of inflation
upon their citizens. Unfortunately, the insidious disease of inflation is, as a
matter of record, chronic in every country that practices neo-Keynesian
economics. But by permitting the private possession of gold in any form,
France and Switzerland at least recognize that the least sophisticated and affluent
of their citizens should have the right to defend themselves.
The only other major nation, besides the U.S. and Britain, that prohibits free
commerce in gold by its inhabitants is the Soviet Union. Private holdings or
transactions in the yellow metal are considered there to be "economic crimes' -
most serious offenses in a Marxist state. Those engaged in them are subject to
the firing squad. ( Yet is has been reliably reported that a flourishing black
market in gold continues to exist in Russia and the other Marxist states )
Curiously enough, the writer finds that the parallel presented by the United
States and the Soviet Union, regarding the private holding of gold as an
infringement on a state monopoly and therefore a crime, is neither unbelievable
nor incongruous. Perhaps the "big brother" philosophy of economics is rather
easily recognized whatever its stage of development.
Worldwide, the record of the neo-Keynesian money mangers in the area of
maintaining the purchasing power of their fiat currencies has been deplorable.
But perhaps I am too harsh on the proponents of the New Economics; after all,
monetary delinquency antedates Keynes by a considerable period; it is of course
as old as money itself. The coin clippers and debasers caused as much ruin and
suffering in ancient times as the paper-money inflationists have in the twentieth
century.
But holding aside for a time further comments on the great questions concerning
future trends of inflation and the coming rise in the price of gold, let us proceed
directly to the problems and opportunities confronting people generally and
citizens of the United States and Britain in particular who might wish to
speculate on these possibilities, or who might want to invest in a gold-related
activity as a hedge. Since possession of monetary gold ( bullion ) by citizens of
the U.S. and Britain is unlawful, there remain only two ( legal ) avenues of gold
investment open to them: the purchase of shares in gold-mining companies, and
the collection of gold coins.
The gold coin was once a very vital part, at times the lifeblood, of the economic
body. Today is not so. The lifeblood of the New Economics is credit. The coin
of gold, the ancient king of money, was forced to abdicate in disgrace during
the depths of the Great Depression and it has been banished from the realm ever
since. But the gold coin still has a meaning, and sometimes a very profitable
one, for those who have the eyes to see it.
The provisions of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 and the Executive Orders and
banking laws of 1933, which originally demonetized and confiscated all
outstanding gold coin in the United States, prohibited the individual possession
of gold bullion ( or any other recognizable use of gold as a store of value ) .
However, they made no prohibitions regarding the ownership of gold-mining
stocks, and they also permitted the retention of gold coins of "recognizable
numismatic value." Failure of the original legislation to define adequately what
constituted recognizable numismatic value caused considerable confusion for
some years, but in general, the parts of the gold regulations concerning
numismatics were not rigidly enforced - at least not to the point of harassing
collectors of gold coins.
It is now obvious that considerable quantities of U.S. gold coin were never
surrendered at the time of the original order. Some coin was withheld because it
was in the possession of foreign citizens, banks, or governments, and some
because its owners chose to defy their government because of what they
considered to be an arbitrary and unjust confiscation. Considerable quantities of
American gold coin also found residence in Canada. At any rate, choice
uncirculated U.S. and foreign gold coins were generally available through coin
dealers in the United States after 1934 and they sold at prices that from today's
vantage point were fantastically cheap.
Unusually strong demand for the more common gold coins, strictly as a
speculation on a possible rise in the price of gold or as a hedge against inflation,
occurred from time to time, notably in 1946, 1957, and 1961, but in general,
the market for the so-called common type of gold coins remained unexciting -
until 1967. In the truly numismatic area, however, astute and knowledgeable
collectors gradually reaped a tremendous reward for their patience. During the
postwar years, gold coins of unusual scarcity or rare numismatic value enjoyed
a spectacular and continuous rise in price.
In the forties and fifties, the U.S. Treasury held most of the world's gold
bullion, and consequently, the attitude of the government toward gold-coin
collectors was one of indifference, even though the legality of possessing
so-called common-date coins was somewhat questionable, at least until 1954.
Prior to that year, the Treasury held the opinion that it alone had the right to
determine whether or not any gold coin was of numismatic value.
Determinations were to be made on the merits of each individual coin presented
to the Treasury for ruling.
The pre-1954 criterion for judging a coin minted before 1933 was whether or
not the coin in question had possessed a recognized numismatic value on or
before April 5, 1933. Gold coins minted after 1933 were to be judged on the
basis of the number issued, the purpose for which they were issued, their
condition, mint mark, historical significance and other numismatic factors.
However, there appeared to be no great rush of collectors to the Treasury
Building to have their coins checked.
It must be admitted, however, that the Treasury Department of that era did not
rigidly or aggressively enforce a narrow and legalistic interpretation of the
"numismatic value" provision of the Gold Reserve Act. Had it done so,
American numismatics would have suffered severe and irreparable damage;
many fine gold coins which are now the prized possessions of American
collectors would have been lost forever. "Numismatic value" is a term of varied
and at times subtle meaning. Many regular-issue coins gradually become scarce
or even rare, through natural attrition, while they are still technically part of the
circulating medium, and these scarcity situations are invariably recognized at
first only by the most astute and sophisticated collectors. By the time the
numismatic value of such coins becomes common knowledge, it is usually well
past the point where that value or the potential for numismatic value was actually
acquired.
There is also the case of the unusually well struck or prooflike coin which was
selected from a regular issue; certainly this type of coin has exceptional
numismatic value even though the issue it was taken from was not particularly
scarce. And how does one objectively judge the roll of uncirculated coins put
away by the foresighted for the benefit of future generations of numismatists?
And specimen coins retained because of their artistic merit or historical
associations? Surely the final U.S. gold-coin series designed by Augustus St.
Gaudens, on of America's most noted sculptors, would fall into this latter class.
To have ruthlessly insisted on the surrender of all gold coins extant on or before
April 5, 1933, that were still technically part of the circulating medium, and/or
not obviously or generally recognized to be of unusual historic numismatic
value, would have been catastrophic indeed, as far as numismatics is concerned.
But the Treasury officials of that day chose to be tolerant, if not amiable, and,
except for prevent the importation of large numbers of post-1933 foreign gold
coins, did little to disturb numismatic gold activity. Apparently, numismatists,
collectors, and even hoarders were too few in number at that time to cause alarm
on the Potomac. Whatever the reason, we can feel thankful that the Treasury
authorities of the first quarter-century following the demise of gold coinage in
the U.S. did not flail about with the typical bureaucratic myopia that has
characterized their successors. In any case, the "common" U.S. gold coins (
which, as we know now, are anything but common ) and most pre-1933
foreign gold coins were allowed to be traded and collected more or less openly
during the years prior to 1954.
In 1954, the Treasury Department recognized at last that the time had come to
legitimize the numismatic gold market. Consequently, an amendment was made
to the Gold regulations, to the effect that all gold coins minted prior to 1933
would subsequently be presumed to be rare and of recognized special value to
collectors, without the necessity of further specific determinations by the
Treasury. Coins minted after 1933 were still subject to specific Treasury
Department rulings, which were to be base on the advice of the Curator of
Numismatics of the United States National Museum. All U.S. gold coins and
the vast majority of foreign gold coins were thus freed from the overhanging
threat of confiscation, and a new era for American numismatics appeared to
begin.
It might have been reasonable to expect after 1954 that further relaxation of the
Treasury's Gold Regulations, particularly as they applied to numismatics,
would be a natural development in time. But the subsequent course of American
economic history ruled otherwise. By 1960, the underlying inflationary
instability of the Western world had reached the point where the once seemingly
unlimited gold reserves at Fort Knox had noticeably begun to shrink.
This unfortunate ( and, in my opinion, wholly avoidable ) turn of events
precluded any possibility of further liberalization of the gold rules, numismatic
or other. Instead, in 1961, the Kennedy Administration saw the necessity of
establishing within the Treasury Department the Office of Domestic Gold and
Silver Operations ( ODGSO ) , in order to institute a more rigorous control over
the import and export of gold and silver, the licensing of jewelers, goldsmiths
and industrial users of gold, and import and sale of gold coins.
The most positive accomplishment of the new ODGSO was to reaffirm, as its
own policy, the 1954 amendments to the Gold Regulations, which ruled that all
gold coins minted prior to 1934 are rare and consequently of recognized
numismatic value. For gold coins minted after 1933, the office required a
separate ruling in each case and the issuance of a special permit for the
importation of possession of each post-1933 coin approved. ( Once an initial
ruling on a particular coin was made, however, no further permits or
applications were necessary to purchase or hold other coins of the same identity
within the United States, although a license to import any post-1933 gold coin is
still required, whether it has been previously approved or not. )
By some obscure and tenuous logic ODGSO also required ( until 1969 ) a
permit to import pre-1934 gold coins, even though the purchase or possession (
>
</HTML>
fcfc
Mr Gresham
(04/25/00; 10:05:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29315)
My .02 FRNs
Thank you, fellow forumites, for not making our Round Table an extension of the "Elian Gonzalez Channel".
What a stupid, stupid story. A stupid media, falling once again to its "O.J." level of reporting, in exploiting a child exposed to tragedy. Stupid political fanatics using a child. A stupid government endangering a child.
I look at my 4-year-old sleeping and I am angry. I feel vulnerable for her, and only by the law of probability are we likely to escape such idiocies. A nation that cannot avoid practicing child abuse even after the public spotlight is turned full brightness on the situation is in trouble. A decent silence seems impossible to them...
That said, I am sure to have offended someone (apologies extended), thus provoking the bane I warned of at the top, and will remain silent on the matter hereafter.
TheStranger
(04/25/00; 10:02:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 29314)
Implications of the L.A. Janitors' Strike Settlement
http://www.latimes.com/news/state/20000425/t000038825.html
From today's Los Angeles Times:
The successful strike gave a shot of energy to dozens of Los Angeles unions as they enter a summer of contract negotiations that will affect 300,000 workers, from teachers to bus drivers. It also helped galvanize immigrant workers across the nation, who are increasingly demanding better wages and working conditions.
"This is the beginning of a new era for organized labor,"
declared Mike Garcia, president of the Service Employees
International Union, Local 1877, which represents 8,500 janitors in Los Angeles County. "This fight wasn't just about us. That's why we got such tremendous community and political support. We were at the right place at the right time. People were looking for an underdog to root for."
All janitors will receive an immediate $500 bonus. Those in
outlying areas will get a 30-cent raise the first year, while those in more highly unionized downtown and Century City will get a 70-cent boost. Wages for all janitors will increase by 60 cents a year the next two years.
Stranger's Note: This settlement amounts to an approximate 8% per year raise for the L.A. janitors. Last week, flight attendants got an even better deal from Northwest Airlines. The point is, with unemployment so low, employers who wish to keep their doors open have no choice but to acquiesce in the face of such demands.
We have now turned 180 degrees from the day in 1981 when Ronald Reagan fired the air traffic controllers. In those days of Paul Volcker and very tight money, there were plenty of unemployed available to replace those who got too greedy. Today we live in an era of easy money and, realistically speaking, there are no unemployed. Workers are already getting the message of rising consumer prices and short-handed employers. Rising wage demands should now spread across the U.S. like wildfire.
By the way, 1981 was a great time to be selling gold. (Get it?)
Mr Gresham
(04/25/00; 09:47:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29313)
Trail Guide #29301
"Even after the expected increase (talking about ECB Euro rates), the Central Bank's main refinancing rate would remain well below those in other western countries - at 3.5%, compared with 6% in the US and the United Kingdom".
TG -- think we could re-finance the house in Euros? Before the rush begins?
Of course we'd have to hedge the future Euro/dollar rise, since we earn in dollars. That would be a call on Euros, or maybe a put on Tbonds (call on TYX). Just throw us on that $80 trillion derivative heap. Of course, we'd be first in line for collecting. Not!
Then we could broker our neighbors getting in on Euro re-fi's. Get our own Euro carry trade going. (Just think of the fees!) Oh, but the unwinding (big grimace!) ahead!
MidEastGold
(04/25/00; 09:19:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 29312)
Could the "anti-Euro" article be a SMOKE screen????
http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2000/04/24/Business/Business.5802.html
Here is just part of the article.....Remember...Israel is not yet a full economic member of the EU.
"JERUSALEM (April 24) - The foreign currency department of the Bank of Israel announced yesterday that the foreign currency basket that determines the exchange rate band will be adjusted on May 2. The adjustment will compensate for differentials between the currencies' respective weights in the basket and their weights in Israel's bilateral balances of trade for 1999.
As a result of the adjustment, the British pound sterling
component of the basket will be reduced 06 percent,reflecting the gap between its proportion in the current foreign currency basket and its weight in the balance of trade with Great Britain.
The reduction of the influence of the pound sterling will
trigger the following adjustments: The weight of the euro
will increase by 1.86% and the Japanese yen by 0.62%,
while the weight of the US dollar will decrease by 0.42%. "
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 09:18:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29311)
A few thoughts - looking for comments
I watched the CNBC special last night on the history of Wall Street. Part of the program centered on J. Pierpont Morgan and his being the "lender of last resort" during the 1907(?) crash. The tie-in was that the re-creation of the Federal Reserve Bank (Central Bank) in 1913 allowed for a true lender of last resort (more reliable than a private individal cobbling together a lending package).
Now, this does make sense...although it is, of course, extremely narrow minded in its justification for a CB.
Here's my observation...
I believe this need for a lender of last resort is necessitated mainly because of the structure of the equity markets. You see, the stock markets are based as much on large brokerage houses/money center banks profiting from creating trading volume as they are from the basic need for companies to raise capital. Basically, if rabid speculation and huge profits for the large money interests were eliminated, there would be much less need for this backstop of a last resort lender. Companies would fail or thrive BASED MORE ON THEIR OWN MERITS, not as much on easy cash propping up prices from a liquidity stream (short term traders). Yes, investors would be less likely to pour money into shaky business models (read many of today's .COMs).
So, no shorting, no options...far less manic buying/selling. More of a Buffet style buy and hold mentality based on fundamentals.
This is a very new idea for me...any comments welcome...and yes, it does reflect on gold since physical gold is not in itself leverage either...that's basically what I see here... too much leverage and thus the need for more safeguards in the system.
Henri
(04/25/00; 09:18:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 29310)
Hmmm
Kinda funny how that doesn't get any press
Henri
(04/25/00; 09:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29309)
Quick lesson in gun control/Peter Asher post 29289
Washington DC has a law that forbids the ownership of guns by individuals.
Peter Asher
(04/25/00; 09:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29308)
Morning, Lamprey
Now that I'm more awake, I'll add the very first part of the first paragraph of the order:
By virtue of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by section 2 of the Act of March 9, i933, entitled "An act to provide relieve in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes", in which admendetory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists, ---
USAGOLD
(04/25/00; 09:00:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 29307)
Currency Wars Rev Up
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
4/25/00 Indications
Current
Change
Gold June Comex
281.20
nc
Silver May Comex
5.04
+.03
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
97~15
-0~06
Dollar Index June NYBOT
108.08
+1.01
Market Report (4/25/00): Gold was level in the early going with the euro and Swiss franc
both taking major hits in the Forex markets. With the euro now trading in the 93¢ range, one
wonders what actions Europe might want to take to shore up its sagging currency, if any. One has
to consider whether or not the governments and the ECB have the desire (or political will) to stop
the slide given recent history. The yen looks like the big winner here. If it's up against the dollar
this morning, it has to be way up against the euro. Look for Japan to attack its currency at some
point as the currency devaluation wars rev up to high rpm's. European high unemployment,
export based industries, and leftist/socialist governments make a volatile mix, and if it can be
accomplished in the modern economic amphitheater, it is usually the currency that suffers. To our
way of thinking, we would hint at the possibility that the observant European or Japanese money
manager, or private investor, would be thinking yellow metal at this point. There's isn't a currency
out there relieved of the debasement strategies of the world's governments and central banks. Even
the supposedly safe-haven dollar, which has suffered our own Fed's attempts at monetary policy
conducted as if there were no relationship between monetary inflation and economic turmoil, is
suspect. In the Clintonista world of fabricated reality, if the golden messenger can be kept quiet in
every respect, then the message is never delivered and the warning never heard (so they think) --
unless of course one is prescient enough to see through the web of deceit. Then you would already
be a gold owner and thinking about adding to your holdings. Hedging makes a great deal of sense
once you realize what the politicians and bureaucrats are up to.
As for the gold market itself, Europe was fairly quiet overnight and Asia reports support from
physical dealers bolstering our contentions as stated above. The next Bank of England sale is
slated for May 23. Cambior, the Canadian company deeply involved in a failed hedging program
which blew up in their hands when the Washington Agreement was announced and the gold price
firmed, is now trading at record lows after posting big year end losses.
That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.
The May News & Views is at the printer and will be out shortly. We think you are going to like
this issue written during the weekend after the April 14 Wall Street Meltdown.
If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.
Just click link above and make the appropriate entries.
lamprey_65
(04/25/00; 08:48:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 29306)
Peter Asher
Thank you, sir for posting the words of the 30's gold confiscation. My blood began to boil as I read it!
The two most disturbing things to me about the event are -
1. The insinuation that private gold holdings are a a threat to the country, when actuality, it was the government's and Fed's mismanagement of monetary policy (read gold) which precipitated a crisis...the individual citizen was expected to "pay" for their mistakes.
2. I also am disturbed that this 'decree' would force me to break the law. Now, I consider myself a law-abiding citizen...at least I do my best and consider myself conscientious in these matters. Having to act on principle here would not make up for the feelings of guilt in having to go against society's designated leadership. I personally hold President Roosevelt responsible as if it all happened yeserday...is there any wonder his peers referred to him as, "that man"? (Yes, sometimes the rich are right).
Jefferson, Franklin, Adams, Madison, et al. must have been rolling in their graves.
Lamprey
Peter Asher
(04/25/00; 08:43:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29305)
Peter Asher (04/25/00; 01:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29296)
And Hill Billy Mitchell (04/25/00; 06:33:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29299)
First:: my last paragraph: >>>>Note that the "Pre-1933" exemption is actually a misconstruction derived from any gold acquired AFTER April 28th of that year NOT being qualified for the exemption (Per Section 2 (b), as "having a recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins."---But, IT IS THE CATEGORY OF "RARE AND UNUSUAL" THAT WAS EXEMPT: NOT THE CATEGORY OF PRE-1933 !!
Should read:
Note that the "Pre-1933" exemption is actually a misconstruction derived from the date of the order and that any gold acquired AFTER April 28th of that year also may be kept if "RARE AND UNUSUAL COINS" But, IT IS THE CATEGORY OF "RARE AND UNUSUAL" that was exempt in all cases, NOT THE CATEGORY OF PRE-1933 !!
Yes HBM, absolutly. The "Copy" of the "Official government poster" may or may not be valid. AND, as I pointed out it also said "For further information cosult your local bank"
So, what "TRUTH" did they have to tell the folks who "Consulted them for further information"??
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(04/25/00; 08:31:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29304)
Sterling
I think the key word here is FUNDAMENTALS. The UK economy is been completed decimated. Manufacturing concerns are been wound down daily. The only jobs been created are those of supermarket check-outs, shelf-fillers, call-centre operatives etc. A nation of 55+ million cannot survive on these service industries. They need to make widgets. So, why does sterling continue to rise relentlessly? I guess they need to ensure that the sheople can continue to get their cheap vacations in Spain, Portugal, Turkey etc. Further enhancing the illusion that the GREAT still exists in Britain.
I expect a 40% devaluation of sterling coupled with double-digit interest rates. This should induce enough pain in the sheople to encourage them to accept the changes which they would otherwise have rejected.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(04/25/00; 08:15:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29303)
FOA@Euro
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/
Search on Buiter for 23rd April 2000
But Buiter does not believe the pound's strength will last. "Everything ultimately returns to reality. It's a question of how fast," he says. "It's the same with the stock market. The stock market globally, and especially in America, has been detached from reality for years now. At some point you are tempted to say this is a form of permanent insanity but it never is. These things get corrected. We've had quite a long upward swing in sterling now and a persistent overvaluation for probably as much as three years. I expect to see a correction in due course. I can't tell you whether it will be tomorrow or in 2002. I hope it will be the former."
And when sterling does fall, it will drop sharply, he predicts. Has not sterling benefited from a re-rating of the British economy, as a result of the MPC and the better-than-expected recent performance? Sushil Wadhwani, a fellow MPC member, thinks so but Buiter is unimpressed. "I don't buy any of that," he says. "It's just twaddle. You can't tell a fundamental story about re-rating. It is just some big and largely irrational confidence discount on the euro and the ECB. And that will pass.
"If sterling finally decides to do the decent thing and move to a level that can be rationalised in terms of the economic fundamentals, say some 15% to 20% below where we are now, then you would have a major inflationary impulse from that and interest rates would have to be higher than they otherwise would have been."
Cavan Man
(04/25/00; 08:12:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29302)
Trail Guide.......
TG:
Thanks for the manner in which you explain the seemingly inexplicable. You make the complex and veiled political and economic agendas of this world easy to understand.
Still with you....CM
Trail Guide
(04/25/00; 06:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 29301)
Euro
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html
ThaiGold (04/24/00; 21:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 29287)
EURO being Abandoned.? Attn: FOA/Trail Guide
http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000124036011016&rtmo=V6gJg6VK&atmo=99999999&pg=/et/00/4/25/weur25.html
But if you go-there, and read-it, it appears to me (and the Telegraph Reporters) as if the Euro is being abandoned before they even print the first one.
What do you make of this twist of events.?.
Is their report incorrect.?. If not, why do you (FOA)
continue to tout the Euro so highly.?.
Cordially
ThaiGold
--------------------------------------------------
Hello ThaiGold,
Here is part of your article:
-----------------------------
City: Economic week: Interest rate fears dominate
TONY BLAIR was urged to rethink his commitment to the euro last night as the ailing currency suffered a fresh blow to its credibility.
Leading German financial experts issued a warning that it would fall further in value unless there was urgent economic reform. This was a clear sign that opinion formers at the heart of the eurozone are turning against the 16-month-old single currency. A week after it hit a record low against the dollar, there are now fears on the Continent that it is facing a full-scale crisis of confidence.
The most damaging attack was made by Prof Jürgen Donges, who heads a committee of five independent "wise men" which advises the German government on economic issues. He said that Germans had been told that the euro would be as strong as the mark, Europe's most successful post-war currency. But they had been bitterly disappointed.
-----------------------------------------
Thai,
Go to my above link and plug in German Marks to US Dollars.
You will notice that the Mark once brought .60 cents +/- in 1980 then plunged to buying .30 cents by 1985! What's that, a 50% loss against the dollar?
Then notice how it was at .72 cents in 1995, then plunged to .55 cents by 1997. What's that, another 30% loss?
The Mark was also spectacularly strong against the dollar at times. My point is that using the Euro as an excuse for European currencies to have fallen is all wet and these guys know it! The German people (and most of Europe) have known money fluctuations from their birth. The above "wise men" are not going to sell them on dumping the Euro on the grounds of it's recent exchange rate.
It's all politics, pure and simple. The anti Euro crowd in England is trying to sway Tony away from his well founded convictions. Still, Britain will join the EU as soon as possible because it represents a new future for them. I have well positioned advise that the dollar is going to begin it's decent this year. As soon as it does these political outcries by "fat cat special interest" will silence.
Believe it!
Read my last (recent?) post here about the Euro value. It's a convoluted story, but our modern 80 trillion derivative driven currency world make traditional money flows (and values) hard to fathom.
Besides, who's fooling who about the Euro? Quoting from today's WSJ currency page:
--------
"Even after the expected increase (talking about ECB Euro rates), the Central Bank's main refinancing rate would remain well below those in other western countries - at 3.5%, compared with 6% in the US and the United Kingdom".
--------
The Euro is weak? Give me a break? Some posters here only look at the exchange rate to see a currencies strength. That's good for the "trader crowd", but it doesn't begin to address the fundamental forces that truly impact a currencies real redeeming qualities. We are talking about real world "use" and the cost to implement that "use" in business. At these rates the Euro is smoking the dollar, hands down. Can you imagine what the exchange rate would be if Euro rates were raised somewhat close to Western rates?
The most exciting dynamic here is that these low Euro rates are building an economic infrastructure in a major world trading block. And doing it during an expansion in it's beginning timeline. And retaining a solid currency in the process.
I agree with the ECB: the Euro is fundamentally strong to the extreme, while the dollar is looking more like a Yen. So what if the dollar rises? It's strength is a sign of failure because our rates must be so high to maintain it. This same "high dollar rate" momentum, that traders love is just killing the international US debt quality from the trade deficit flood.
So do we want to have our assets in Japan instead of Euroland? Japan has a strong currency with 0% rates. Good, yes? Ha! That arena is in a crashing crisis and embarking on it's own hyper - inflation policy to try and control it. The Yen is strong because they are drying out! Our Dollar will
do the same, only we will gun rates higher in a "wind down" of reserve currency status. Just the opposite from Japan. Eventually, price inflation will eat the dollar on the exchange rate market, no matter what our interest rate is!
Further
Most TGBs attack the Euro story because it validates the current gold market dynamic "Another" laid out long ago. It ruins their passion for Gold stocks and gold derivatives as it proclaims that physical gold will at least match ( or far exceed) any possible run in these paper products. He
influenced this political process privately in the early 90s and publicly in the late 90s. To date the whole dynamic is proceeding and many other analysis are now moving in this direction. Truly, it's a transition on an epic scale.
thanks
Trail Guide
Black Blade
(04/25/00; 06:36:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29300)
Morning Wakeup Call
Source: Bridge News
Not much in the way of news this morning, found this bit of news:
S Africa Press: Falcon warns it may close Zimbabwe gold mine
Johannesburg--Apr 25--Falcon Investments, the Luxembourg-based and Johannesburg Stock Exchange listed mining resources group which owns the Falcon Gold mining company in Zimbabwe, has warned investors it could be forced to shut the mine down, Business Report reports. Directors say that Falcon Gold is likely to report a first-half operating loss because of heavy rains, power disruptions, high inflation and an unsustainable exchange rate between the US dollar and the Zimbabwe dollar. (Story .11170)
Black Blade: Not to mention that Zimbabwe is in a state of anarchy. The veteran/squatters are burning, looting, raping and killing with the apparent support of pres. Mugabe. This could be a major problem for the mines in Zimbabwe such as PGM producer Zimbabwe Platinum Mines (Australia: ZIM). The SA pres. Was joking with Mugabe at the recent meeting of Africa heads of state, and was criticized for not condemning the violence in Zimbabwe, meanwhile share prices of SA mines could suffer as a result of the violence next door.
Also: S&P Futures up +9.00 as Wall Street attempts to rally after yesterdays wild market action, and Au is down slightly on light trading overnight.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/25/00; 06:33:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29299)
FDR Executive order
Sir Peter
My we have an interesting situation. I quote an author who's credibility I must admit has not been check out by me. Mr. Michael W. Haga is I think fairly young and writes his books with mixed motives certainly. I will do my best to check this out by going directly to the source. It will take me some time to get around to it; however due to daily ditch digging demands upon me. Quite an aliteration, huh!
You quote an agency of a government whose "full faith and credit" began to vaporize in the early 1900's. The wonderful thing about this forum is that given enough time we as a group who really want to know the truth finally get to it the "old fashion way", we earn it.
On Saturday, April 22, 2000 My wife and I were in an unususal situation. We were in the same room with a television as we were in a motel celebrating our 33 wedding anniversary. What was unusual was the television. My wife popped the remote and we were suddenly staring at a picture of a federal agent confronting a frightened child and one of his socalled abductors. This picture plus several angles of the footage of the female federal agent forcefully removing the child into a safer place, a federal van with darkly smoked windows, was all over the place. We found it on every network. The horror or it all was a great shock, to me and my wife.
My daughter who lived in the vicinity where we were staying came to visit a couple of hours later. Because of her training she has no ready access to a television either.
When she arrived at our room we told her of what appeared on the TV. She said, turn it on, I can't believe it.
We turned the TV on and to our dismay all of the networks had dropped the most graphic revelations of what had occurred. We searched and watched the propaganda for about an hour switching from channel to channel to channel. We did not have access to Fox News Channel and cannot say whether the same thing happened on that channel.
What obviously happened was that the networks were given instructions to not show the pictures or play it up verbally any more. This is not heresay for me and my wife. We watched this happen with my own eyes only days ago.
I would caution all who read at this forum to be careful to thoroughly check out anything you see. Do as Sir Peter has done with me and as I plan to do. Question the one who makes a statement or quotes someone else.
Of course we can't question something as official as a "U.S. Government poster", can we. After all upon such posters will we find, "the whole truth and nothing but the truth", so help us GUV.
HBM
totalamateur
(04/25/00; 04:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 29298)
US devaluation!?
You whizzes out there! What are the chances that the US will devaluate the dollar and at the same time go back to the gold standard with the "new dollar"!
And why not while they're at it wouldn't they move in and occupy Saudi Arabia, grab the gold and the oil, and continue living in greed and wastefulness?
What's preventing them? Could they lose face? Hardly anything left! Could they become more unpopular? Not much more!
Help me out you guys that know the score, is there a secret pact between the Arabs and the Russians that if the US tried a stunt like this the Russians would.....
Peter Asher
(04/25/00; 01:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 29297)
Thai Gold
Never-the-less
As MK often says (Physical) Gold is the only asset that is not someone elses liability. Mines have liability!!
Some mines in the past may have done well in bad times, but if a may originate a paraphrase of George Santayana's ultra-famous qoute: Those who count on history repeating itself may be doomed when it fails to do so.
Peter Asher
(04/25/00; 01:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29296)
Hill Billy Mitchell (04/24/00; 22:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 29290)
I have a copy of the Post Office "Poster" notifing the public of the Executive order.
Your authors "Quote"
>>>>I as
President, do declare that a national mergency exists; that the continued private hoarding of gold
by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to the peace, equal justice, and wellbeing of
the United States, and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the
interests of our people." Therefore, pursuant to the above authority, I hereby proclaim that such
gold holdings are prohibited, and that all such coin, bullion or other possessions of gold be
tendered within fourteen days to agents of the Government of the United States for compensation
at the official price, ($20.67 per ounce) in the legal tender of the Government. ALL SAFE
DEPOSIT BOXES IN BANKS OR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE BEEN SEALED
PENDING ACTION IN THE DUE COURSE OF THE LAW. All sales or purchases or
movements of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its territories, and
all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby
prohibited.<<<<
Actually reads as follows:
I, Franklin Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United states by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out this order:
Section 1. for the purposes of this regulation the term "hoarding" means the withdrawal and withholding of gold coin, gold bullion or gold certificates from the recognized and customary channels of trade. ----
Section 2. All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1,1933 to a Federal reserve bank or branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve system all gold coin, gold bullion and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28th 1933, except the following:
(a) such amount of gold as may be required for legitimate and customary use in industry, profession or art within a reasonable time, including gold prior to refining and stocks of gold in reasonable amounts for the usual trade requirements of owners mining and refining such gold.
(b) Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person: AND GOLD COINS HAVING A RECOGNIZED SPECIAL VALUE TO COLLECTORS OF RARE AND UNUSUAL COINS. (Caps mine)
(C) Gold coin and bullion earmarked or held in trust for a recognized foreign government or foreign central bank or the Bank for International Settlements.
(D)Gold coin or bullion licensed for other transactions (not involving hoarding) including gold coin and bullion imported for re-export or held pending action on application for export license.
Section 3. Until otherwise ordered, any person becoming the owner of any gold coin, gold bullion or gold certificates after April 28th, 1933, shall within three days after receipt thereof, deliver the same in the manner prescribed in paragraphs (a) (b) or (c) of Section 2; or unless such gold coin, or gold bullion is held for purposes specified in paragraph (d) of section 2 and the person holding it, is with respect to such gold coin or bullion, a licensee or applicant for license pending for action thereon.
Section 4. Upon receipt of gold coin, gold bullion or gold certificates deliverered to it in accordance with sections 2 or 3, the Federal reserve bank or member bank will pay therefore AN EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF ANY FORM OF COIN OR CURRENCY ISSUED UNDER THE LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES.
---------- ------------- -------------
Nowhere on this placard is there a mention of sealing safe deposit boxes, however it does say "For Further Information Consult Your Local Bank"
Note that the "Pre-1933" exemption is actually a misconstruction derived from any gold acquired AFTER April 28th of that year NOT being qualified for the exemption (Per Section 2 (b), as "having a recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins."---But, IT IS THE CATEGORY OF "RARE AND UNUSUAL" THAT WAS EXEMPT: NOT THE CATEGORY OF PRE-1933 !!
ThaiGold
(04/25/00; 01:16:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29295)
Of Fans and Flames
Attn: Re: Magician (04/25/00; 00:16:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29294)
...
...
...
4-25-2000]
To: Magician
Welcome to the Forum.!. Your message #29294 was short and
refreshingly to the point. You said (partly):
[quote]
The need for PM's as an alternative for wealth storage has existed throughout the ages. The need for a paper
instrument representing ownership in a mining company has only appeared recently in our history. The question
remains unanswered that if the final washout in the market causes longterm disengagement with equities. Now is a
time where these fundamental questions may come to be tested.
[unquote]
ThaiGold wishes to mention, that during the 1929-1930's
depression/crash era, one shining star was Homestake
Mining Shares, which appreciated highly in value, and
continued paying nice dividends throughout that devastion
of all other forms of stock and wealth. In addition, physical-gold holders also were shortchanged by the infamous
confiscation of their cherished holdings by President FDR.
So indeed, there may become another disengagement of equity.
Cordially
ThaiGold
==========================================================
Magician
(04/25/00; 00:16:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29294)
A fan to the flames!
Greetings all in this most vociferous moments of our recent history as a global trading entity. We are truly coming to a moment of climax to where PM's are embraced or another paper dungeon is built. It seems that with the papering of the bubble bursts of the past years only worse tendencies to failure and capitulation begin to occur.
The need for PM's as an alternative for wealth storage has existed throughout the ages. The need for a paper instrument representing ownership in a mining company has only appeared recently in our history. The question remains unanswered that if the final washout in the market causes longterm disengagement with equities. Now is a time where these fundamental questions may come to be tested.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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