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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

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WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/25/1998
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

USAGOLD (9/25/98; 17:09:16MST - Msg ID:179)
*****Archives Update*****
It's been an amazing week, fellow goldmeisters. Tomorrow, the forum will be down for about two hours (and hopefully less) starting at noon mountain time tomorrow to get the archiving into production and work out some of the remaining tech bugs. With any luck, we will up and running like a brand new Mercedes Benz by this time tomorrow. Thanks to all for your patience. I've been reading the posts late this afternoon and the discussion so far has been interesting to say the least. There is much to think about this weekend. I've got today's Wall Street Journal and London Financial Times under arm as I go out the door tonight. Both are featuring extensive coverage of the LTCM debacle (predicted by our own FOA) as it affects the international banking sector. I look forward to this weekend's discussion. I wish all a restful weekend. See you here Monday. I will update if needed on the Archive situation.

el St.One (9/25/98; 13:35:00MST - Msg ID:177)
Pete Posting
I remember reading Anothers Posts. Where you credit Jan. 1988 I am sure you met Jan. 1998. I appreciate your and every one's posts, keeps us all thinking. I have heard or read of a Chinese Curse, probably should credit Confucius. "May you live in enteresting times" These are certainly interesting times, and getting more so every day. Till when

JONNY (9/25/98; 10:48:07MST - Msg ID:176)
TESTING
IS GOLD GOING TO FADE AS THE DOW REBOUNDS. I DON'T KNOW HOW THE DOW COULD CONTINUE TO RISE AND GOLD DOWN INTO THE CLOSE TODAY.

Ph in LA (9/25/98; 10:09:42MST - Msg ID:175)
To: Friend of Another Re: Currency controls
Yesterday, it seemed to be Friend of Another writing: "I fully expect a soaring gold price in US dollars to force the American Treasury to implement foreign exchange controls for it's currency". This is a theme that would be of great interest to United States residents with real assets outside of the US such as real estate, foreign currencies, etc. For those with limited experience in such further demonstration of government perfidy, can you clarify what might be expected in such a future? Obviously, the exact course of such developements would probably be difficult to detail in advance, but it ought to be possible to offer a description of how controls have worked in other countries, along with what the intended effect would be for the government. Would it become impossible and/or difficult for citizens to repatriate funds/assets held outside the country? It seems hard to imagine the chilling effect "currency controls" would have saying that holding gold outside the country under such circumstances might be unwise, too.

Pete (9/25/98; 10:06:55MST - Msg ID:174)
ANOTHER & FOA-THINGS TO COME?
My Dear FOA, Thank you for your prompt reply. If only some(NOT ALL) posters at Kitco were as courteous and gentlemanly as yourself and ANOTHER, Kitco would be much better off. IMVHO. Their loss is USAGolds gain. My views are very simple minded. I have not the brainpower or ability to disect every little nuance in the markets and therefore try to analyze as best I can. My thinking is that the current currency crises occuring throughout the world was and is unsustainable. The FRB is between a rock and a hardplace. The strength of the dollar has to be decreased to help most currencies before a world wide depression took hold. In other words something has to be done before the dollars strength destroyed the world economy. My 1st thought was that the FRB would be forced to devalue the dollar by a rate cut. My 2nd thought was that this would be a temporary solution. The dirivitive markets have been in a no lose, win win situation for several years due to such things as the yen-gold carry trades which in time were carried to extremes. That these would eventually default because the dollar would have to reverse course soon. Once this reverse happens, many highly leveraged dirivitives would be caught in a squeeze that would put the dollar in jeopardy forcing the FRB to again change course and defend dollar by rate increases which in turn will tank the equity and bond markets. As you stated in a recent post that you and ANOTHER expected a major default which will mean the beginning of the end for the dollar. The recent hedge fund bailout is as you say only a small tip of the iceberg. More will surely follow as sure as day turns to night. Your prognostications such as a Jan 1988 post?(Can't find it for now) that some on Kitco used to trash ANOTHER predicting that a rush to cover may be difficult to contain and predicting that the price of gold would be $320-$360 by year end was and is right on as of now. Also your post on Jan 10, 1988-21:03 predicted with no uncertain terms that the BIS would not allow the price to go below $280 has also held to date within acceptable parameters. I am still trying to determine in my mind why a concerted mean spirited effort was made by certain posters on Kitco to so desparately squash your input and what their true motives were? We will watch closely as events unfold, yes? Thank you for listening to one of a simple mind who has as much faith that gold will triumph in the end as I have in God. Pete

jman (9/25/98; 08:25:59MST - Msg ID:172)
next bottom for gold
Gold seems to have a 22 week cycle, bottom to bottom. The next time for a bottom will be mid Nov. I would think that this bottom will be a wave 2 pullback, only to be followed by a wave 3 advance. Dynamic time analisis run on some gold stocks also suggests a trend change in this time frame. Any comments welcome.

AUBUGx10 (9/25/98; 07:29:25MST - Msg ID:171)
UBS & gold & the Titanic
The derivatives market is about to blow apart. What we have seen is just the tip of the iceberg. Gold will move out of here as it appears to be doing but it is too soon to get overly bullish. There are LOTS of suprises out there at present and the next few weeks through to end of October will be hairy. While I totally agree with Another & FOA there will be a transition period preceeded by a panic. What does a bank do when it runs out of money? Two things it either closes or the local CB gives it some more. The possibility for a sell off in gold over the next few weeks should not be discounted.

nugget0 (9/25/98; 05:15:35MST - Msg ID:170)
ooops..sorry
sorry bout that

nugget0 (9/25/98; 05:12:53MST - Msg ID:167)
Crash course in market theory
just got connected to sat TV....saw all the young faces at the NYSX...thought to myself..those young people are controlling the worlds finances...but they don't know their history..I'm not ancient, but I do remember my uncle brewing schnapps in the bath, my grandpa cutting homegrown tabacco & making cigarettes...to sell on the blackmarket...& going to my other uncle who had gold...& thus food...post war Europe ..my grandpa saying.."always have gold"..I was 4 years old. In 1979 I employed a vietnamese "boatperson", in my new adoptive country...he managed to escape because he bribed the guards in his village with gold...he lived & prospered. I was taught gold prospecting by an old Swedish miner many years ago, & in my retirement have done well.. nothing, in my opinion, surpasses the thrill of finding, & the beauty of a nugget...It has been an education, & a delight to find other people, similarly predisposed to gold on the forums I have been to. I have been "lurking " on several forums,& benefitting from them....Another,& friend..have a wisdom that I can relate to...the world is becoming a dangerous place, changes always bring the uncertainties ,the possibilties,the excitement..we have a big bubble out there...the spin doctors (young) are out there in force...so, what I need to know, to validate the buying of the additional gold that I have been doing.."on hunch"... is a lucid explanation of some of the market terminology that I have been reading about....ie, derivatives, gold shorts....you guys out there in auroland know all the lingo...we are probably scared by the same scenario...but talking different languages..don't abbreviate the important bits...there are lots of interested people out there...

nugget0 (9/25/98; 03:45:24MST - Msg ID:164)
getting the hang of it
testing..testing

jinx44 (9/25/98; 00:42:09MST - Msg ID:163)
bmacd/ China gold
I very quickly read an article that said the PRC announced that they had or were purchasing 1000-1500 tonnes of gold. Article also stated that it is believed the real intent of the PRC CB was to accumulate 8-10,000 tonnes and the announcement was propaganda to defuse and downplay the inevitable leaks that would come from their actions. Can't remember the site-sorry.

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