"The Harvest"
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/24/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
KTC
(1/24/06; 23:40:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140852)
Bank Safety Deposit Box
My wife works as a bank teller at US Bank, and I asked her about any bank teller training for the case of emergency, and Homeland Security needs to be there to open the safety deposit box. And she has never heard of that. We live in West coast.
Goldilox
(1/24/06; 19:24:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140851)
THE UNITED STATES OF AMNESIA!
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snip:
On 11-29-05 we made the following comment: "We continue to believe that the market is not about to "collapse"--at least not now. We expect support to hold, or maybe marginally violated, but there is nothing on the radar screen to suggest that the party is over, yet. It's an outright silly party considering that the SP is near 1300 despite the head winds directly ahead, but the market has been known to be able to stay silly longer than most rational people would expect. Moreover, we are entering the period during which the "Bonus Defenders" will be most active driving the market higher--with your money--in order to make sure that they will receive their bonuses at the end of the year. Of course, sometime in mid- to late- January when disappointing earnings and guidance sink the market, there will be hell to pay, but who cares? It will be the investors who will pay--through losses--not the "Bonus Defenders." (see commentary for November 2005)
Take a look at the article below that was posted on Yahoo on 1-11-06, and also take a look at the market action since earnings started to come out. Do I need to say anything else? Probably not, except one thing; I am not making today's remarks for the purpose of "bragging" how right I was, or how smart I am. I am making today's remarks to point out that somehow the United States of America has become the United States of Amnesia! Haven't the people of this fair land learned anything about Wall Street during the 2000-2002 debacle? Apparently not, because if they did, they would have continued to give their money to the "bonus defenders" to lose it on their behalf. A nation that stubbornly refuses to learn from history is always doomed to repeat it.
-Goldilox
Ike, as usual pulls no punches when discussing Wall St.
Goldilox
(1/24/06; 19:08:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 140850)
Banking and deposit box restrictions
I have seen this rumor circulated a number of places, but it seems to always link back to BellaCiao.
I have yet to find any corroborating links.
Goldilox
(1/24/06; 19:04:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 140849)
American Revolution
http://www.americanrevolution.org/hessindex.html
@bskija,
Without getting too far off-topic to discuss the American revolution, Tories were British colonists loyal to the King, Hessian mercenaries were definitely used to augment British troops, and colonial frontier units often fought American Indians led and supplied by British regulars.
Attached is a link on supplemental forces used by the King's Army.
Survivor
(1/24/06; 18:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 140848)
@ MK, Mr. Linkley
http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=10012
The link above is where I read about the DHS bank training. Seems to be pretty much anecdotal, however this may be as good as the information gets considering the subject.
- Survivor
MK
(1/24/06; 17:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 140847)
Mr. Linkley
Haven't heard about it, but step one would be to find out the source of the story. Where did it originate? Who reported it? Anything in writing from Compass or Bank of America, or any statement quoted by key personnel?
There's some wild rumors floating around out there with respect to the Patriot Act like the one that any transaction over $50,000 was going to be reportable to the Treasury Department. That came from a lame interpretation of the qualification procedures for precious metals dealers under the new FinCen guidelines. It never was the case, but that didn't stop people from obsessing about it for weeks on end. Most of these fears are overblown.
Like I said, the best thing would be to check the source for starters. If its a friend of Aunt Marhta's, we'll need a little more than that. If the source is credible, we'll need to muddle through just exactly what the banks are asking the public to do. My suggestion would be to get the facts and go from there. Until we can give the source some credibility, it's just another rumor.
David Linkley
(1/24/06; 16:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 140846)
The dollar
The tailwinds that supported the dollar in 2005 are now turning into headwinds as the Fed has signaled we are nearing an end to rate hikes and the dollar repatriation has ended. So what will Bernanke do? Will he try and get the Republicans reelected or defend the dollar? With the neocons in the White House and Bush with an up to date 36% approval rating, take your best guess. The stock market is heavy, liquidity is exploding over the past month, the dollar is technically very weak and the West is threatening Iran with nukes. When the dollar breaks 80 to the downside on the US dollar index we will be in uncharted waters. Interest rates could spike overnite and and a derivative crisis unfold with no immediate answer. The next 12-24 months IMO will be historical in magnitude.
David Linkley
(1/24/06; 16:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 140845)
@MK
Have you heard anything about the post on Lemetropole that Bank of America and Compass Bank have been training employees with Homeland Security Personal how to talk with customers in the event of an emergency? That all safety deposit boxes would be handled by Homeland Security with the usual confication measures of gold, guns and cash in place. I have not heard this anywhere else and would like to verify if possible. If true this could have grave implications for all of us.
bskija
(1/24/06; 15:42:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 140844)
Coalition Froces????
Goldilox: My interpretation of the history books I read does not include Tories, Hessian Mercenaries and Native Americans (do you mean Indians or traitors?) as "coalition forces". I classify the "throw the tea in the Boston harbor types as Americans".
Toolie
(1/24/06; 15:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 140843)
Flatliner, Belgian
Flatliner – "But, sadly, there is not enough gold or silver of copper or nickel or lead or just about anything that could balance out the amount of currency - in existence - anywhere near the current ‘strong dollar’ prices." --- Gold wouldn't stand a chance at these low, low, low prices.
Belgian – Thank you Sir.
Belgian
(1/24/06; 14:51:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 140842)
Right Toolie
IMO, you understood the whole article extremely well (what is in it and isn't) and your conclusion (freegold) was exactly the reason why I found it interesting enough to post it. Thanks mate.
Flatliner
(1/24/06; 14:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 140841)
@ Belgian, Flatliner – FT
Toolie, If I'm reading your response correctly, I 1) missed the big picture and 2) might miss it again, but will try to understand. :)
If I've got this right, because central banks empower governments to have unlimited amount of cash, they can do things like manipulate the price of commodities in the markets affectively creating conditions like a ‘strong dollar’. This type of manipulation is political in nature (laws are written to allow it) and it affects other economies when enacted. And, if I take it a step further, if you then through in world reserve currency status and a ‘big stick’ foreign policy, you gain a world wide monopoly on commerce. The end affect is that coffee farmers in Columbia do not get to set a price based on supply and demand, but are rather subject to the political will that runs the market – the strongest CB/government combination.
Then, if you reflect back on the article, it basically stated that this could not happen when gold was the international currency of choice. But, sadly, there is not enough gold or silver of copper or nickel or lead or just about anything that could balance out the amount of currency - in existence - anywhere near the current ‘strong dollar’ prices. Thus, if we are going back to it, there will be massive price adjustments on real currencies to make up for this imbalance or … we're all doomed to a fiat currency future!
Goldilox
(1/24/06; 14:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 140840)
Bskija
@Bskija,
What history books R U reading?
The Brits had the Tories, the Hessian "contractors", and even some Native American tribes in their "coalition forces."
Bottom line, home boys eventually wear out invaders, even if it takes a few generations. It's always easier for the indigenous forces to fight a guerilla campaign than for the invaders, and the colonial militias took full advantage.
Toolie
(1/24/06; 14:20:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140839)
968
Wow, a fed chief with a firm grasp of the obvious. He'll be emptying wastebaskets by morning.
Toolie
(1/24/06; 14:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140838)
Belgian, Flatliner – FT
Vedad's criticism of the pre 1914 gold standard seems to center on the lack of a present-day central clearinghouse for gold reserves, a role that the Bank of England played during that time. He goes on to suppose that the failure of the gold standard post 1918 is a result of the US failing to fill the role that Briton lost as a result of WWI. He ignores the responsibility of the Ferderal Reserve's inflation. And the communist ideologies sweeping the world at the time, restraining investment in those risky areas.
Likewise it seems unlikely that if the US were under a gold standard today that we would see large US investments in countries without a proven track record of respecting property rights – Ford wouldn't be moving its supply chain to China. Because those funds cannot be replaced as easily, I don't know how much Chinese investment is insured by the US Import-Export bank, or is otherwise guaranteed by the US government, but it stands to reason that if money were harder to replace, more care would be taken with it.
Which brings us to Benn Steil's column (the one that Vedad is responding to) http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=1/22/2006§ion_id=4&newsid=13387&spcl=no
His criticism of the current system is that money flows into and out of developing economies so quickly that it creates risk to the entire economy through the following mechanism. Snip: Thus a fall in the global (dollar) price of a commodity such as coffee tends not to produce necessary diversification away from inefficient types of production, but an engineered economy-wide inflation and devaluation in countries in which coffee exporters are politically powerful. The central bank distorts all other prices in the economy to prevent adaptation to falling world coffee prices. This is at the root of development stagnation for many poorer countries. (end snip). Or perhaps more completely stated; prices during the gold standard were well aligned among nations. Prices under floating currencies are not aligned internationally because the central bank, influenced by crony capitalists will adjust the nation's currency to suit those particular needs. While ignoring the needs of those without the government in their pocket. According to Mr. Steil, this is why ‘globalization’ hasn't lifted all boats -- it's the third world CBs ability to adjust currency value that thwarts rising standards of living, gold is the remedy because it removes that power from the CB.
All of that said... Vedad's response offers little, it could be the best part was left on the floor of the FT, letters to the editor end up that way sometimes. He offers no way forward, just more of the same.
Hopefully, the benefits of a freegold system become apparent, in that it would allow the CB some flexibility to adjust to a globalizing world while providing some restraint, due to his limited gold reserves. Was it Mundell that called the euro a ‘transitional currency’?
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(1/24/06; 14:11:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 140837)
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TUESDAY Market Excerpts
January 24 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Tuesday, but closed well above the session's worst level as ongoing political and economic uncertainty in hot spots around the world offset lower oil prices and some strength in the U.S. dollar.
COMEX February gold fell 60 cents to finish the session at $558.10 after trading as low as $553.10 earlier. The contract gained $4.70 on Monday.
"There's probably a 50-50 chance that we've entered a consolidation range, similar to what we saw in the September/October period, where gold will trade on either side of $550," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.
From here, "the recent $540 to $565 range will become the support and resistance levels in gold, but once the consolidation period ends, a new range of higher prices will develop, which will likely take gold beyond $600," he added.
---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---
Belgian
(1/24/06; 13:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140836)
Interest rates (IR)
Highly probable that IRs will remain low to very low for a long time. More and more digits are looking for return that is not there ! Over-liquidity. And this will continue to feed the goldmetal market, also for a long time.
The transnational financial capitalism that falls victim of its own system. Hyper-liquidity all over the globe results in NO general price-inflation. Much too much liquidity (easy money) has taken out defaulting of the unfit. There is no natural selection anymore (sorry Darwin).
IMO, a wonderfull environment for orderly gold revaluation not caused by price inflation but by hyper inflation of digital money units that have to remain unproductive.
Real interst rates have become historically small on all maturities in almost all currencies. I don't see any change anytime time soon.
968
(1/24/06; 13:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 140835)
Gold rush set to continue
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/art/2006/01/24/237597/Gold_rush_set_to_continue.htm
"SOLD out. Sold out. Sold out once more. Whenever gold bullions hit the counter, they are sold out very quickly after being put on sale."
"Bank of China is no exception. The lender almost sold out sets of the first and second series of gold bars to mark the 2008 Beijing Olympics on the first day the sets were unveiled last Wednesday. One-third of the second series bars was booked on the same day."
"Chinese have a long historical practice of keeping gold at home as a hedge," said Sun Changyan, a trader with Shanghai Lao Miao Jewelry Co, the city's major jeweler. "Bullions are eyed as a safe haven, fortune symbol and investment vehicle in China."
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The article speaks for itself...
968
(1/24/06; 13:14:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 140834)
US current account deficit ‘unsustainable’ – NY Fed chief
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/12afef68-8c3c-11da-9efb-0000779e2340.html
SNIPS :
"Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve, on Monday dismissed the view that the US current account deficit was sustainable, suggesting the risk of a sudden fall in the dollar would grow the longer the trade gap widened."
"Time does not necessarily help. The longer these gaps continue to build, the greater the ultimate adjustment required, and the greater the risks that accompany that process," he said."
"Even if we could be confident that the world would be comfortable financing the US on these terms for some time, that fact alone does not mean that it is prudent for the US to continue borrowing on this scale."
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Without words...
bskija
(1/24/06; 12:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 140833)
Terror in NY Subways
It probably went something like this:
911: Yes, what problem do you have?
Terrorists: 911, we have decided not to bomb the NY subways today.
911: Could you tell us the reason why?
Terrorists: Too many cops, dogs, and machine guns down there.
911: Whew! We are glad to hear this; it is costing us a bundle to keep them down there.
Terrorists: We will try at a later date when thing are not so hot.
911: Thanks terrorist for the information and have a nice day.
bskija
(1/24/06; 11:55:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 140832)
Revolutionary War
If the British were smart during the Revolutionary War, they would have done what they are doing in Iraq. Enlist Americans to fight against the insurgents in Washington's army.
Gondolin
(1/24/06; 11:54:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 140831)
Perfect Storm?......
Having been a long time of late lurking and observing I've really noticed over the last few days how many major world events across so many geopolitical stages all seem to be coming to a crux at the same time. Good for gold? Probably. Good? Probably not. Seems like the barometer may be starting to drop for Jim Puplava's perfect Storm ...and still most people don't seem to see the clouds.
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(1/24/06; 10:47:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 140830)
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