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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/24/2004 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) slingshot (2/24/04; 23:54:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117661) steady Not all your posts, just some of them.Slingshot--------;0) slingshot (2/24/04; 23:47:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 117660) steady steady. Is the key to reading your posts, puting your words to Rap tempo? O.K., O.K, I'm going out on a limb here.Just the read seems better with a beat.Slingshot------------<> mikal (2/24/04; 23:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 117659) Star caught devouring companion A neutron star, that is. NASA reporting this crime via CNN.Other shocking headlines from the past 24hrs:ABC News-Business- Wire- Japan Stocks Erase Gains; Exporters Slide CBS Marketwatch- IMF's Koehler supports Japan's currency policy ABC News-Business-Wire- Accounting Watchdog Sees CEO Pay Controls ABC News-Business-Wire- Fed's McTeer Says Jobs Forecast Possible ABC News-Business-Wire -Cintas Sues Union for Defamation USA Today- Money- Trade reforms go up for discussion MSNBC-Business- Gallon of gas to cost $3 by summer? Chicago (IL) Tribune-Business- Rally's staying power in doubt Chicago (IL) Tribune-Business- SEC Proposes Changes in Stock TradingMSNBC-Business- Feds to pursue massive tobacco suit MSNBC-Business- Stocks stumble Forbes- Bank Mergers Are Raining DownSiliconValley.com- Genetically altered seeds found mixed in crop stockMSNBC-Business- Greenspan hits Fannie, Freddie debt USA Today- Money- Confidence drops LosAngeles Times- Nasdaq gains for this year nearly gone. timbervision (2/24/04; 23:20:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117658) *****$405.80***** Coming from North of the border, I have seen no particular rise in the price of gold. This has not bothered me at all, since it has kept the purchase relatively constant. In fact it is kind of peaceful. Everytime gold jumps, or falls, in US dollars, the Canadian dollar purchase price remains the same. What this tells me is that gold really hasn't even begun to separate from world fiat. Are we all ready for the divergence to begin? I'm happy with paper gold prices for a while longer.As for an event, I see nothing singular, to account for the rise is the US price of gold, rather the prolonged and accelerating deficit spending of the US Government. I'm sure the true annual deficit, ex-Enron style accounting, is probably closer to 2 trillion a year. Black Blade (2/24/04; 22:38:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 117657) Low inflation? Not to me! http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/20/commentary/column_hays/hays/index.htm Many households may wonder what defines low inflation as they struggle to pay higher heating bills.Snippit: NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Inflation is on everyone's radar screen as Wall Street waits to see how soon the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. So far the reaction seems to be that energy prices were the main culprit pushing the headline number up by a bigger-than-expected 0.5 percent. Look beneath, take out food and energy prices and the gain of 0.2 percent is still deemed tolerable by many economists. Not by all. I know this kind of commentary drives some people crazy: "How can you say inflation is low when my home heating bill is through the roof and I am paying more for my health benefits every year??!!!" This is all true. But, in the eyes of the Federal Reserve, and that's what counts on the interest rate fronts, there are enough slowly rising prices -- some even falling -- to not yet worry about inflation, or at least not to worry about an inflationary spiral. I understand why people go bonkers when they read or hear someone saying, inflation is tame, because many households are hit by rising prices for basics of life. After all, some do call inflation the cruelest tax of all. If, however, those rising prices cut into your spending on other stuff, and companies don't see demand for their products ramping up sharply and they don't start hiring -- a lot of ifs - then the Fed is probably going to stay on hold and not raise rates. Black Blade: Actually higher prices are just a symptom of inflation. The rapid and steady increase in dollar creation is the real inflation and here the Fed and Treasury are just getting started as a weaker dollar in a "global currency devaluation" is a must. There will be no significant job creation without higher inflation and a weaker US dollar. Talk is cheap as Treasury Secretary Snow well knows, but his comical statements supporting a "strong dollar policy" are just that – "cheap talk" and not in the nation's interest (or rather the best interest of the US public). mudr (2/24/04; 22:27:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 117656) ******$406.50****** ******$406.50****** Is my guess because the decline of the US dollar against the Euro has been the major influence in the rising price of Gold. The coming major influence will be the mania that will set in after the next rise to above $450Mudr eccentricventures (2/24/04; 22:21:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117655) pog guess $403.20 I'll say the dollar dive has been the driving the pog.. There are other factors to factor in, but gold moves with the buck for the time being. Black Blade (2/24/04; 22:06:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 117654) Dollar Hammered by Consumer Data http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=3&u=/nm/20040224/bs_nm/markets_forex_dc Snippit:NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar slumped against other major currencies on Tuesday, undermined by a surprisingly weak reading on U.S. consumer sentiment that raised fresh concerns over the outlook for the world's biggest economy. The unexpectedly sharp tumble in sentiment implies a slow economic recovery, allowing the Federal Reserve to take its time in raising interest rates. Analysts cite unappealingly low yields on dollar-based assets as one reason for the greenback's two-year slide. But some traders played down the dollar's fall on Tuesday, seeing it as consolidation after a sharp rally last week. The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence dropped to 87.3 in February from 96.4 in January. Analysts had expected a decline, but only to 92.5. Treasury Secretary John Snow played down the weak confidence report, saying it is "one statistic among many." Snow reaffirmed his commitment to a strong dollar policy and said the economy was on a good course. His comments, however, had little impact. Black Blade: Could it be that consumers are seeing through the government slant on economic statistics by personal experience or vicariously the experiences of others close to them? The global currency devaluation scheme continues to hurt US manufacturers and consumers while these clowns talk up the US dollar in spite of unsustainable budget and current account deficits. Meanwhile jobs and industries move offshore to cheaper labor markets. Dollar Bill (2/24/04; 22:01:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 117653) .,. Greetings Mikal, Ron Paul is such a wuss........no confidence in greenspans infinite debt model, how sophomoric! Clinging tearfully to his parachute while the vast new aircraft Greenspan HIMSELF! is piloting is winging ever higher and in satisfactory shape. Enough said! Dropping blivets of money while gloating "eat your heart out John Law!" A book came out last year called THE FED. the last line was "they dont know what they are doing" and this was a guy who had reported on the fed for years. Apparently another dimwit who went blind being so close to brilliance. Happens!Must be quite a small club that is orchestrating this global change. That last treasury secretary didnt get it, Rubin seems out of touch, dont they have any faith in the new engines on this new global jet? Japan, China, are strapped on for the long haul due to America having food which will one day be worth its weight in um, er, ah, mikal (2/24/04; 21:32:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 117652) Ron Paul on "limits to economic growth" http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul159.html Greenspan's Black Magicby Rep. Ron Paul, MD - Excerpts:"In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee two weeks ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan painted a rosy picture of the U.S. economy." "Clearly this is a race that has run its course.As financial analyst Jay Taylor explains, the disturbing increase in the debt to GDP ratio illustrates that printing more money is the only solution federal policy makers know. Federal debt naturally grows faster than income – while there are no limits to how fast the printing presses can run, there are natural limits to economic growth.The end may come when foreign central banks realize the dollars they receive are worthless, or when they find other places to turn for income. When that day comes, interest rates will rise, perhaps dramatically. At that point not even Mr. Greenspan will be able to save the economy from the painful correction necessitated by his easy credit, easy money policies.February 24, 2004Dr. Ron Paul is a Republican member of Congress from Texas." Waverider (2/24/04; 21:22:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 117651) Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/24/business/24OIL.html?ei=5062&en=bc7d7425bb64c8cd&ex=1078203600&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position= "When visitors tour the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's oil empire — a sleek glass building rising from the desert in Dhahran near the Persian Gulf — they are reminded of its mission in a film projected on a giant screen. "We supply what the world demands every day," it declares.For decades, that has largely been true. Ever since its rich reserves were discovered more than a half-century ago, Saudi Arabia has pumped the oil needed to keep pace with rising needs, becoming the mainstay of the global energy markets. But the country's oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years."Waverider: Thanks CavanMan for the article - I've included the link as it's a great read. Believer (2/24/04; 21:15:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117650) *****414.0***** Lots of little events! Word of mouth is creating a momentum. More individuals have an expectation that there IS inflation in our economy and that unemployment is rising faster than the government is saying. Even the banks are predicting 440-480 gold this year. Pass the word. Cougar (2/24/04; 20:34:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 117649) ***** $410.50 ***** Without a doubt the devaluation of the US$ has had the greatest influence on the the price of Spot. Gandalf the White (2/24/04; 20:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 117648) TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contest Entrys UPDATE! ONLY about 28 (twenty-eight) hours to go before ENRTY DEADLINE !! Entries as of TUESDAY 2/24/04 at just after 20:00 Denver (MST) time !!!Listed in order of decreasing values !---- *** $44,444.4 *** mikal (02/19/04; 23:07:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117414)*** $24,412.0 *** Shanti (2/24/04; 16:24:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 117639)**** $444.4 **** Zhisheng (2/17/04; 23:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 117274)**** $439.1 **** Gold Standard (2/19/04; 04:38:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117359)**** $433.6 **** steady (2/17/04; 22:22:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 117268)**** $432.1 **** Gandalf the White (2/17/04; 22:16:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 117265)**** $430.1 **** ha_tey_o (2/18/04; 00:53:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117280)**** $427.0 **** Sundeck (2/18/04; 09:31:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 117302)**** $423.0 **** The Silver Surfer (2/20/04; 07:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117428)**** $422.2 **** monTROZ (02/19/04; 23:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117418) **** $420.0 **** Liberty Head (2/18/04; 10:53:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117305)**** $419.2 **** Smeagol (2/18/04; 23:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117354)**** $418.5 **** yellowmetal (2/24/04; 18:53:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 117646)**** $417.0 **** J-Bullion (2/20/04; 07:17:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 117429)**** $415.3 **** Golden Lionheart (2/24/04; 16:47:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117640)**** $415.1 **** Henri (2/19/04; 13:09:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 117374)**** $415.0 **** Clink! (2/18/04; 08:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117296)**** $414.7 **** slingshot (02/20/04; 00:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 117420)**** $414.6 **** Goldilox (2/20/04; 12:19:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 117443)**** $413.5 **** Waverider (2/21/04; 23:27:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 117509)**** $413.3 **** Felix the Cat (2/23/04; 06:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117542)**** $412.8 **** Shermag (2/24/04; 12:21:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 117631)**** $412.4 **** pilgrims_gold (2/24/04; 07:06:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117603)**** $411.6 **** Gold is (2/23/04; 21:41:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117584)**** $409.9 **** pmurgsRSA (02/20/04; 04:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 117423)**** $409.2 **** DryWasher (02/19/04; 18:23:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117391)**** $408.5 **** commish (2/24/04; 17:41:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 117644)**** $408.1 **** Harmzone (2/24/04; 11:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117624)**** $407.0 **** Dollar Bill (02/20/04; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117472)**** $406.1 **** Rimh (2/23/04; 11:11:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 117553)**** $405.4 **** Gondolin (2/23/04; 13:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 117558)**** $404.8 **** Survivor (2/18/04; 13:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117317)**** $404.4 **** goldenpeace (2/23/04; 10:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 117550)**** $404.1 **** goldnow (2/24/04; 12:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 117630)**** $402.9 **** Lady Liberty (2/23/04; 21:36:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 117583)**** $402.6 **** seagull (2/23/04; 22:27:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117588)**** $401.7 **** Max Rabbitz (2/22/04; 12:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 117517)**** $400.9 **** Trapper (2/22/04; 13:53:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 117520)**** $398.0 **** Gonlyold (2/23/04; 12:27:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 117556)**** $396.5 **** balzac (2/20/04; 11:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117441)**** $392.0 **** Victory Over Lies (2/23/04; 20:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117580)**** $390.0 **** Lothar of the Hill People (2/24/04; 13:03:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 117633)**** $387.5 **** gvc (2/20/04; 12:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117446)**** $386.0 **** Brett Woods (2/21/04; 16:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 117503)====<;-) Dollar Bill (2/24/04; 20:19:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 117647) .,. The Invisible Hand, True enough! I guess I was just thinking that any case against the Greenspan Fed would have to include the issues brought up here. His complaints against the Fed are dwarfed by the posts here. I have never heard him speak, he is the only Pres contender, noticed by the press, that makes any case against Ole Greenie. Didnt mean to wander off the Mine quite that far:) For me the greenie issue is his taking us down the global economy path while trying to assure us that our drinks wont spill while the plane banks to the left because of the planes own new gravity created by its own momentum.Meanwhile, we see the workmen out the window rearranging flap locations, rudder locations, we see the workmen argueing, oops, there goes the landing gear, guess we dont need them anymore, now we are seeing them build a port for arial refueling, all while flying! No more of that landing-business cycle- anymore....no more resemblence to the textbook model anymore, flying on a wing and a prayer, and those guys might not be praying.I support gold because Greenspan is flying by the seat of his pants. This is new terrain, and its not Kansas anymore. yellowmetal (2/24/04; 18:53:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 117646) contest $ 418.50 What contributed most to gold's stellar performance last year is the glut of fiat dollars which caused Europe and the Mittel East to lose confidence in our overvalued paper currency. In a short period of time,the rest of the world will have to fall in step, since the dollar will be burned toast. In gold we trust! The Invisible Hand (2/24/04; 17:48:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 117645) Ralph Nader Dollar Bill (2/23/04; 19:46:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 117577).,.http://www.nader.org/interest/021500.htmlA few days ago Ralph Nader laid out a case against the greenspan fed. He needs the forums assistance, that is for sure, but he makes a good start.Are you sure this gentleman is on "our" side? Here's a snippet from what Robert Hessen wrote about Nader on p. 111 in his 1979 book "In Defense of the Corporation" (Hoover Institution, Stanford University):Nader's critics usually call him a statist because he attacks business and calls for greater governmental controls. But for Nader, statism is only a transitional stage. Once the government has extinguished all existing large scale organizations, a new phase of mankind's history can be inaugurated.Is that what gold stands for? It's one thing to be over-invested in gold, it's quite Another to support any quack who could help one achieve a higher POG as an unintended consequence of his lunatic views. Yes, goldbugs are also lunatics, but at least, they have a hand to stand on. commish (2/24/04; 17:41:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 117644) ****408.5**** The axe on the USD is soon to fall. CoBra(too) (2/24/04; 17:25:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117643) <from a poster at a neighbouring site (Weka) http://worldvisionportal.org/wvpforum/viewtopic.php?t=177 Even if I have no idea as to the authencity of either the above web site, nor the poster, I have to and have agreed to its content for a long time. cb2 Socrates964 (2/24/04; 16:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 117641) Boilermaker http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/Public/datashop/print-catalogue/EN?catalogue=Eurostat&theme=6-External%20Trade&product=KS-AR-04-002-__-N-ENThis is a detailed pdf file from Eurostat.Shows that in 1H03, the EU ran a E24bn trade deficit with China, a E15bn deficit with Japan and a E9bn deficit with the DACs (Dynamic Asian countries). This was offset by surpluses of E30bn with the US and E9bn with E Europe.These figures highlight the wisdom of investing in E Europe (for EU-based companies), since there is a quid pro quo in the form of a net trade surplus.As for your point about Chinese goods being competitive in Europe, on price alone I don't doubt it. I nevertheless imagine that there is (or will be very soon) a world of difference between Chinese goods manufactured by Chinese companies and Chinese goods manufactured by the subsidiaries of EU multinationals, since the former are far more vulnerable to EU protectionism than the latter.I am not particularly close to China, and no doubt someone else on this board has a much better notion of events than I do, but I hear a lot about Western companies who are obliged to go into China in a JV, only to find that the local partner sets up a competing venture as soon as it has absorbed enough business know-how. Trade barriers hurt your business community far less if they are relatively unexposed to the target country. Golden Lionheart (2/24/04; 16:47:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117640) ******415.30****** In terms of my currency the Australian Dollar this ain't much of a bull market in gold. A year ago gold was around A$600 now its not much above A$500. Of course you can sell it and receive loads of US$'s but who wants to hold a depreciating currency. Smoke and Mirrors.................. Shanti (2/24/04; 16:24:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 117639) ******$24,412.00****** Knowing the $ is overloaded with heavy debt, the POG is even stronger coilled and the verbal intervention is accelerating. The question isn't "if" but "when", as one can see on the popping leaves the spring is near.be prepared !Sal-OM All !!Shanti CoBra(too) (2/24/04; 15:23:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 117638) Doug Nolan at his best! http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin Don't know if this was posted before, as I've only had the pleasure, er, rather scary experience to re-read this lengthy article just now.Othmar Issing's statements ring pretty clear to me. cb2 TownCrier (2/24/04; 14:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117637) Speaking of Fed interventions... http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/permanent.html Today the Federal Reserve waded into the long-term market, buying $660 million in Treasury coupons dated from 2012 to 2026. As a consequence, this action incrementally helps subdue interest rate pressures on the long end while consequently also boosting bank reserves thus upping the nation's money supply as compared to the non-intervention situation; all of which acts to facilitate a boosting of the money supply through ease of additional commercial lending.R. Mr Gresham (2/24/04; 14:15:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 117636) Slam dunks Seems to me the power-holders have chosen their limited set of objectives, that are within their "budgets" of available physical gold/silver and paper market credibility (can't bend that brittle one too many times.)1) Try to run out any longs holding at option expiration (and force others in the know to exit prior to expiration, on that expectation alone), and2) Allow a few more favored "old boys" to leg into (or increase) their physical holdings at the eventual expense of their institutions (and their customers) holding the shorts in their portfolios.Works for them. Until it doesn't.Very short time intervals, sharp drops. Hard to catch. Coin premium makes it not worth playing for "small dogs."Me? The POG/POS battlefront has moved so far beyond me, I can hardly hear the cannon booming anymore. And I needed the R&R. Battle fatigue...(Selling level? -- Fun to think about -- Oh, probably first let-some-go begins somewhere around when I can make a mortgage payment with an Eagle, or with a tube of rounds.) TownCrier (2/24/04; 13:57:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117635) Who owns what, affecting what, and how. http://finance.lycos.com/qc/news/story.aspx?story=200402241843_RTR_N24451564&symbols=QCNEWS:0 HEADLINE: Central bank buying at US Treasury sales overratedNEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Some bond investors have been overestimating foreign central bank participation in U.S. Treasury auctions, although there is no doubt that they are major purchasers of government debt overall.Figures on auction allocation for much of last year from the U.S. Office of Debt Management show foreigners, including central banks, took less of U.S. offerings than first thought, particularly for longer-dated debt. Since May last year the Treasury has released a breakdown of auction results which shows both the share taken by primary dealers bidding for their own house accounts and the share taken by dealers bidding on behalf of their customers, which can be everything from bond funds to wealthy individuals.The latter group are called indirect bidders and include foreign central banks, which tend to bid through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York....indirect bidders took 24 percent of a $13 billion sale of 10-year notes in September but according to the ODM only 6 percent went to foreign buyers.The discrepancy is not so great for short-term debt, the maturity historically favored by risk-averse central banks.At September's sale of $25 billion of new two-year notes indirect bidders took 37 percent of the offering, while the ODM data show that 28 percent went to foreign accounts, which would include the offshore central banks.---------(from url)------It is good to understand how foreign (esp. typified by central banks) preference for the "principal safety" of the shorter dated notes tends to mute or lessen the effective ability of the market mechanisms you might otherwise have expected to come into play in the event of loss of foreign confidence in the dollar.Were there in fact a more normal distribution of holdings along the bond-term spectrum, any general selloff of bonds would tend to raise the effective yield interest rates which would in turn be normally expected to help curb the severity of the selloff as new buyers are potentially drawn in by the higher yields.However, with a preponderance of short-dated holdings, a liquidation could occur by foreign holders without generating the normally expected signals to the marketplace, especially when you further consider that through FOMC policy directives and the implementation through open market ops, the Federal Reserve has undisputed power to dictate the short end of the interest rate spectrum.And beyond that, we mustn't make light of the Fed's ability to intervene in the long end of the spectrum, too.In other words, running counter to the common perception, in this case where there's fire, it is entirely possible that you might not see any smoke at all!In such an environment, the "theoretically pure" balancing mechanism you would normally expect from the free rein of market forces is most definitely revealed as a faulty premise that could be dangerous to assumptions of your portfolio's overnight health. This may help you understand that the usually comforting view of a clear sky untroubled by any sign of rising interest rates may in this case not be your most reliable indicator whether there is a fire raging below.So rather than look at interest rates as the primary indicator to help you figure out how healthy the dollar might be, it is better to see the exchange rate trend for what it is telling you directly. And ultimately, all the statistics in the world are no substitute for simply exercising your own good judgement.Only one thing is certain. A portfolio diversified with gold is, by that same fraction, as good as gold. Call USAGOLD~Centennial today and tell them Randy sent you.R. Lothar of the Hill People (2/24/04; 13:03:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 117633) **** $390.0 **** Again Lothar responds to the call to contest. Lothar sees the long-term decline of the $ (and other currencies) as the most significant event in the past and in the future. More than anything else, the large investors seem to view gold as a safehaven during periods of a declining currencies and will increasingly move from currencies into PMs as the decline contiues. The smaller investors will follow. Gandalf the White (2/24/04; 12:57:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 117632) Sir Survivor is today's "KING of the HILL" !!!! **** $404.8 **** Survivor (2/18/04) COMEX Apr '04 (GC4J) HIGH = $405.0 low = $398.8 Settlement = $404.8 Change +$5.5 Vol = 35,337 Yesterday's OpenInterest = 144,857 ---**** $404.8 **** Survivor (2/18/04; 13:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117317)(Note that his was an early entry also !!)<;-) Shermag (2/24/04; 12:21:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 117631) ****$412.8**** If I were to pick a single event that contributed to gold's stellar rise over the past year, it would be the decision to invade Iraq. Gold's story is the dollar story. This action singularly created the largest change in the U.S. budget deficit dynamics, and its attendant need for a massive influx of foreign capital. The action against Iraq consequently alienated a portion of the foreign capital so badly needed. goldnow (2/24/04; 12:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 117630) **** 404.10 **** The one event above all others, which most contributed to Gold's Stellar Performance over the past year is... people seeking security for their assets. This is becuase they see the downward direction the US Dollar has taken. Gandalf the White (2/24/04; 12:19:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117629) WELCOME Sir Harmzone !! Harmzone (2/24/04; 11:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117624)===Thanks for joining in on the conversation !<;-) steady (2/24/04; 12:02:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 117628) ECOism reality or make belive borrowed.You could imagine something as real which nobody else does anywhere. It would be real for you and you would experience it to some degree. As reality gets more "there", and "objective", more people join into the co-agreement with the idea., and observable things take form which you experience as separate from yourself. But it's all only a matter of degree. That which seems the most "there" and enjoys the greatest "objective existence" simply has the most unwavering belief about it by the most people (minds) - this is, of course, the physical gold universe. ( the word gold has been inserted here for my own ethical purpose! as ecoism will be felt planet wide! reality: one golden mind at a time! Goldilox (2/24/04; 11:58:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117627) Helicopters Any truth to the rumor that the cancelled BA-UTX stealth helicopter contract is being picked up by the FED?Just another tool to keep their hyperinflation "under the RADAR". Harmzone (2/24/04; 11:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117624) ******* $408.1 ************ Newbie to watching the gold market, have been lurking over the past month+, but it seems pretty hard to argue against the notion that gold has been rising with the U.S. dollar's decline over the past 2 years. I am hopeful this is not the only stimulus for gold continued appreciation in the future as I believe that there is only a limited amount of decline left in the dollar (will probably be hit later in 2004), before November and the start of U.S. tightening (interest rate hikes) to cover rising inflation which very much already is quite apparent at places such as the pump and supermarket. Hopefully Gold's continued rise will fueled as a hedge against the coming inflation. Goldilox (2/24/04; 11:08:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 117623) Link headfake Gandalf, you are tease at heart!! Gandalf the White (2/24/04; 11:00:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117622) Sir Quixote ROFL <;-) Quixote (2/24/04; 10:31:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 117621) Help again!! Gandalf, thanks for your speedy help, but your second link isn't working for me either! Gandalf the White (2/24/04; 10:20:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 117620) Thanks Sir Quixote !!! Quixote (2/24/04; 10:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 117616) YES, there is "NOT" a LINK to my ILLEGAL use of the "Optional Link" box ! Sir Townie has warned me about that habit !He has been sooo busy that he was unable to assist in correcting that BAD HABIT of mine.(AND, I am too old to learn how to fix it so that it works !)It sure does look "Pretty" though, doesn't it ?<;-) Caradoc (2/24/04; 10:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 117619) Goldilox: little reaction to dollar's plunge You're right that today's gold and silver price increases have failed to fully reflect the dollar having resumed its plunge. Just my cut at it, but it seems that -- despite being fully willing to let gold drop more than $10 every time BOJ steps in to keep USDX from dropping below .85 -- TPTB are not yet willing to let gold have a $15 up day.Looking on the bright side, this means that we're banking a few dollars worth of increase for tomorrow just to catch up with where the dollar will have dropped to by the end of the day. Which means today is a buying oportunity for those who didn't have the nerve to buy below $400.On the negative side, whether it's 24 hours or 72 hours from now (or more likely some point in between) when USDX approximates .85 again and BOJ comes in to squander some more of its nation's wealth, the amount that we have "banked" for the next day's increase will go "poof" and disappear into the middle of the night.Expect more of the same only worse when USDX tests support at .82. I'm looking for $20 plunges at that level: say from $450 to $430.Switching the subject slightly (and despite the probability that "all paper will burn" sooner or later) precious metal stocks and stock options offer the opportunity to make paper profits that can be set aside to buy more of the real thing whenever we get one of those nasty plunges. And why not?I wouldn't trade my coins for paper, but in the world of paper I managed to unload a third of my nearterm options Friday before last and another third on the following Monday. Believe me, it was tough to fight the greed instinct and press "enter order" to sell things that at the moment seemed to be going to the moon. Got stuck with the remaining third of March and April options during the recent drop (darn it!), but managed to pay for a couple more coins while legging out to September options. I rather imagine that stock in a couple of North American silver mining companies will have moved nicely by this autumn and with that increase multiplied by the leverage of being in options, I should be able to swap that paper for more of the real thing. Maybe by then the buying opportunities will be those really nasty days when gold plunges $40 dollars from $480 to $440.Considering that timing options is too sporty for most to try and considering all the hassle I'm going through to be able to buy at $440 or some other number in 6 or 7 months, I would think that for most people with a portfolio to protect, buying now with gold only a tad over $400 would be an easy way to make ~9% between now and gold at $440 or ~18% between now and gold at $480. For a bit more leverage without the risk of options, our host offers pretty items like MS-64 Saint Gaudens and MS-65 Peace Dollars at competitive prices.Just how I see things....Caradoc Gandalf the White (2/24/04; 10:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 117618) Reply to Sir Jon, the Golden Lionheart !! <;-) Golden Lionheart (2/23/04; 02:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117539)The competition.Just an idea from a new poster. Why not have a cut off date say three or four days prior to the date on which people have to predict the price. That would involve more skill or perhaps guesswork. Jon.---Sorry to have not answered sooner, Jon -- BUT, I missed your first post yesterday as I have been as busy as "an one-armed wallpaper hanger" with the contest and trying to "contain the Orcs" outside the Castle walls. (Thanks to Sir Slingshot for WELCOMING all the Newbies and older "returnees"!) I surely welcome suggestions about the contests and have attempted to vary the length and "cut-off date" of the entries prior to the Settlement date. In fact you can see that in this contest there are two NY trading sessions between the entry DEADLINE at Wed. 2/25 Midnight and the Settlement time on Friday 2/27. When I ask the Hobbits, they said that they could not wait more than two days without knowing who won the gold and silver ! <;-)(AND this way, we get the Castle to have Contests on a faster timetable !) However, I shall think about your suggestion again.PS: Don't wait toooo long to enter, because by tomorrow at this time the entries will be FLYING in and IF one were to make an error and double enter --- WELL -- I warned all ! steady (2/24/04; 10:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117617) who knows explanation, incarnation, revelation, incognation, stagflation.....inspiration for gold domination. incredulous watch us!!!!! Quixote (2/24/04; 10:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 117616) Gandalf Help!! Every time I try to click on your contest link I get an error message! Gandalf the White (2/24/04; 09:56:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117615) TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contest Entry UPDATE ! DEADLINE for entries Wed. MIDNIGHT, for SETTLEMENT on Friday 27th! Entries as of TUESDAY 2/24/04 at just before 10:00 Denver (MST) time !!!Listed in order of decreasing values !---- *** $44,444.4 *** mikal (02/19/04; 23:07:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117414)**** $444.4 **** Zhisheng (2/17/04; 23:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 117274)**** $439.1 **** Gold Standard (2/19/04; 04:38:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117359)**** $433.6 **** steady (2/17/04; 22:22:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 117268)**** $432.1 **** Gandalf the White (2/17/04; 22:16:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 117265)**** $430.1 **** ha_tey_o (2/18/04; 00:53:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117280)**** $427.0 **** Sundeck (2/18/04; 09:31:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 117302)**** $423.0 **** The Silver Surfer (2/20/04; 07:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117428)**** $422.2 **** monTROZ (02/19/04; 23:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117418) **** $420.0 **** Liberty Head (2/18/04; 10:53:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117305)**** $419.2 **** Smeagol (2/18/04; 23:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117354)**** $417.0 **** J-Bullion (2/20/04; 07:17:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 117429)**** $415.1 **** Henri (2/19/04; 13:09:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 117374)**** $415.0 **** Clink! (2/18/04; 08:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117296)**** $414.7 **** slingshot (02/20/04; 00:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 117420)**** $414.6 **** Goldilox (2/20/04; 12:19:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 117443)**** $413.5 **** Waverider (2/21/04; 23:27:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 117509)**** $413.3 **** Felix the Cat (2/23/04; 06:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117542)**** $412.4 **** pilgrims_gold (2/24/04; 07:06:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117603)**** $411.6 **** Gold is (2/23/04; 21:41:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117584)**** $409.9 **** pmurgsRSA (02/20/04; 04:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 117423)**** $409.2 **** DryWasher (02/19/04; 18:23:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117391)**** $407.0 **** Dollar Bill (02/20/04; 19:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117472)**** $406.1 **** Rimh (2/23/04; 11:11:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 117553)**** $405.4 **** Gondolin (2/23/04; 13:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 117558)**** $404.8 **** Survivor (2/18/04; 13:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117317)**** $404.4 **** goldenpeace (2/23/04; 10:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 117550)**** $402.9 **** Lady Liberty (2/23/04; 21:36:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 117583)**** $402.6 **** seagull (2/23/04; 22:27:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 117588)**** $401.7 **** Max Rabbitz (2/22/04; 12:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 117517)**** $400.9 **** Trapper (2/22/04; 13:53:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 117520)**** $398.0 **** Gonlyold (2/23/04; 12:27:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 117556)**** $396.5 **** balzac (2/20/04; 11:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117441)**** $392.0 **** Victory Over Lies (2/23/04; 20:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117580)**** $387.5 **** gvc (2/20/04; 12:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117446)**** $386.0 **** Brett Woods (2/21/04; 16:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 117503)====Just determine the APRIL ‘04 Comex Contract Settlement price on Friday Feb. 27th, AND answer the QUESTION:Over the past 12 months gold has risen nearly 20% and is generally considered by financial analysts to be one of the top-performing assets over the last year. That did not happen in a vacuum. What would you say is the one event - above all other events - which most contributed to gold's stellar performance over the past year, AND why?Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize a Dutch King goldpiece - (0.1947 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." RULE 2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX APRIL 2004 Gold Contract (GC4J) on the date of FRIDAY, the 27th of February, 2004. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MST) on WEDNESDAY, February 25th, 2004.---<;-) Cavan Man (2/24/04; 09:51:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117614) Saudi Oil Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi FieldsBy JEFF GERTH hen visitors tour the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's oil empire — a sleek glass building rising from the desert in Dhahran near the Persian Gulf — they are reminded of its mission in a film projected on a giant screen. "We supply what the world demands every day," it declares.For decades, that has largely been true. Ever since its rich reserves were discovered more than a half-century ago, Saudi Arabia has pumped the oil needed to keep pace with rising needs, becoming the mainstay of the global energy markets.But the country's oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years.Energy forecasts call for Saudi Arabia to almost double its output in the next decade and after. Oil executives and government officials in the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, say capacity will probably stall near current levels, potentially creating a significant gap in the global energy supply. Cavan Man (2/24/04; 09:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 117613) ABX Comments on CNBC this AM! Surprised you missed the comments....calling in from RDU..CEO's comments POSITIVE for GOLD and well positioned JUNIORS. Alas, poor ABX shareholders twist in the wind. Henri (2/24/04; 09:43:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117612) Waverider msg 117591 That brings up an interesting point...if all the subsidy goes into executive fees and shareholders...who are the shareholders? If it is a public company the shareholders should be public knowlege. TownCrier (2/24/04; 09:43:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 117611) USAGOLD~Centennial appreciates your support http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html Order online (at link above) or call toll free to access friendly assistance and great prices on the entire product line, including bullion.1-800-869-5115 Ext.#100Thanks for choosing USAGOLD~CPM as your source for gold -- proudly serving investors since 1973!R. steady (2/24/04; 09:41:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117610) zero appering disappearing . coming or going, is it snowing, where it come from front(positve) or back (negative) wherthe appearing number come from?i think i know! CoBra(too) (2/24/04; 09:11:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 117609) Greenspan say's Fannie and Freddie should curb growth ... http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040224/financial_greenspan_1.html This is coming on a day when eco news aren't that great anyway.Consumer Confidence in February was much worse than expected; Most of the negative sentiment stems from the dreary job situation. Not even the dramatic, Trichet called it brutal, Dollar depreciation of the last 2 years could arrest the job erosion, or better outsourcing; Nor did it have any visible effect on the trade balance, yet?How long can unilateral currency depreciations - even if it is, or because it is the global reserve currency - go on without severe repercussions from its trading partners?Or when will competitive devaluations start, or better when will real value start to appreciate against all currencies?Got Gold? -cb2http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040224/economy_consumers_1.html USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (2/24/04; 09:07:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 117608) Knowledge is power. Monetary depreciation need not be a problem for YOU. http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html steady (2/24/04; 09:06:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 117607) repairing the 31 or 32 year gap gold is reparing hrte misty gap between memories and reality!got gold? Goldilox (2/24/04; 09:05:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 117606) DX cliff diving http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10 In the last hour, the DX has dropped over .50.Gold and silver have not reacted to this move. What's up with that?Are they decoupling from the dollar? Waverider (2/24/04; 08:49:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117605) U.S. Feb. consumer confidence slumps on job fears http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040224/economy_consumers_3.html "The Conference Board, a private research firm, said its index of consumer confidence dropped to 87.3 in February from a downwardly revised 96.4 in January. Economists had forecast a drop to 92.5. February's reading was the lowest since October. "People are not happy. The big problem is the jobs situation. The lack of jobs has people scared," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York."Waverider: No suprises here. Boilermaker (2/24/04; 08:10:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117604) China's Trade Socrates964- Excellent anecdote in message 117597.Your friend tells a straightforward story for not investing in China but I would think that Chinese manufactured products, regardless of who owned the factories, would be competitive in Europe.Can you or anyone else tell me where Europe's (or its major economies) trade balance stands with China and help me to understand why, assuming it's not way out of balance, it hasn't become a prooblem like it has for the US? It seems to me that with the Euro having recently become so much stronger that Chinese goods would be a bargain in Europe. Are stores in Europe full of Chinese stuff?Boilermaker pilgrims_gold (2/24/04; 07:06:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117603) ******* $412.4 ******* Currency weakness=Gold's strength. This will continue as the dollar becomes bankrupt because of the people of america don't care. We elect politicians from two parties of a single mind, greed and corruption. Democrat or Republican, both are corrupted by business, special interest, and the false sense of American superiority. We are a nation of debt, we own nothing but our debt, we allowed this to happen when no one stands up and says its time to pay our debts! We place our children in debtors chains, and leave them a legacy of McDonalds Jobs for all, we make nothing! I own property, I own gold and silver, I have no debt, my child will purchase her freedom! USAGOLD Daily Market Report (2/24/04; 06:46:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 117602) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you. MK (2/24/04; 06:45:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 117601) News & Views http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html Updated. Dollar Bill (2/24/04; 06:35:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 117600) .,.+ Socrates964, wow, great thinking. steady (2/24/04; 05:19:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117599) dream big! tic toc dont watch the clock, hiding gold in your sock, better get a lock. up down dont make a sound as gold has found the ground.around town, in a car peoples looks are so far.. away for them i do pray.. that fiat isnt here to stay ..a dream.. a scream.. the cabal about to get cremed or so it seemeslife.. full of dreams! Spartacus (2/24/04; 04:05:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117598) Sweden raises dollar concerns with U.S. Treasury http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=GK2QQSEW32LOOCRBAEKSFEY?storyID=4420187&type=economicNews WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Sweden's economy minister said on Monday his country was worried about a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar and the implications it could have on an economic recovery in Europe. Gunnar Lund, on a visit to Washington, said he had expressed Sweden's concerns about risks of a further decline in the U.S. dollar during a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow. - Socrates964 (2/24/04; 03:10:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117597) My 2 fen on China Agree, TC. Of course, the danger of an overvalued exchange rate is that it can expand the domestic monetary base and cause inflation, if the government allows it to do so (which seems to be the case in China where credit creation is out of control).A friend of mine told me about a conversation with a European manufacturer that had just bought a factory in Hungary, which went like this:-So you're pleased with your new factory?-Yes, it's reasonably productive, labor costs are OK, it doesn't need much investment and when Hungary comes into the EU, the border controls will ease up and we'll be able to deliver anywhere in Germany within 24 hours.-But surely you wouldn't build a brand new factory in Hungary since labor costs aren't that much lower than in the EU?-Probably not. But I'll tell you one thing. If there's one country where there's absolutely no way we'd build a new factory, it's China.-Really???-Not a chance. Terrible working capital and supply problems. Nightmare keeping in with the right people in government. And if you do manage to make a profit there, you hand most of it to the container companies.-So where would you build it?-Probably the Ukraine. Low labor costs, quality of labor OK and the roads across Romania and Hungary into W. Europe aren't that awful any more.I don't know if anyone has any similar stories, but it seems to me that there is a lot of sloppy thinking about China, in which everyone takes for granted that the long yuan trade is a one-way bet. Granted, in some industries, like making toys, labor is the main cost component. This doesn't hold, however, for every industry, and if the above is indicative of a more general trend, the Chinese may need the US much more than they admit, since the Europeans don't have the same incentives to go there as the US does.Since demand from the US consumer is likely to disappoint, I actually think that there is a good medium-term chance that the Chinese may repeat the boom to bust cycle of the Asiam tigers in the late 90s. If so, the yuan will go down rather than up. Since it is not a freely-traded currency, its descent can be stage-managed. How about the following:-Keep the peg until the $ hits bottom against the Euro (say $1.60) - then announce that the Yuan will become freely convertible - shock horror, it begins to sink against the $. There may also be political reasons for engineering a collapse in the Chinese stock market (bad for Japanese widows, but good for Beijing, which has disposed of of its would-be-autonomous opponents by feeding them rope in the form of credit until they hang themselves).There is evidently a wild card that the above argument doesn't account for, which is China's untapped mineral wealth - my hunch, however, is that this will take time to develop and will only be a minor factor.It goes without saying that this weak yuan scenario is gold bullish. Indeed, ask yourselves why the Chinese government is so keen to encourage its economic elite to own gold when a strong yuan scenario would make this a rotten investment in yuan terms.The other obvious point is that if you're holding lots of $-denominated instruments, then if your currency depreciates at the same pace or faster than the dollar, you still make a profit, and to return to the start of my post, you transfer the inflationary pressure that an overvalued currency brings to the US. Sundeck (2/24/04; 02:57:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117596) Central banks, hedge funds dump euro, yen and gold http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,108830,00.html Paints the picture behind the sharp currency movements of last week... Sundeck (2/24/04; 02:45:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 117595) Barrick developments... http://home.businesswire.com/portal/index.jsp?epi-content=GENERIC&newsId=20040223006304&newsLang=en&beanID=202776713&viewID=news_view Snip:"...Mr. Sokalsky reiterated Barrick's positive view on the outlook for the gold price due to a confluence of factors including: continuing US dollar weakness, low interest rates, global reflation, geo-political tensions, and declining world-wide gold production. ..."A summary of Barrick's new mine development over the next few years...getting that "deep storage" gold up into the sunshine, perhaps??;-)Sundeck Sundeck (2/24/04; 02:17:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 117594) Renminbi are becoming yuppies' dough-re-mi http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001863811_chinadollars24.html Snips:"..."We didn't see RMB at that time as a real currency," Ding recalled. For most Chinese, the U.S. dollar was "like gold," he said. .....So Ding and his wife, who also works for an American company, have decided to exchange up to two-thirds of their U.S.-dollar savings — or $20,000 — into RMB. ..."Sundeck: You just gotta read this... slingshot (2/24/04; 00:23:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117593) Salutations @ Golden Lion Heart Welcome aboard.@ Victory Over Lies Welcome Aboard.@ Robot Guy Good to be back, Heh?@ Lady Liberty They're Coming.Slingshot--------------------<><><><> ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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