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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/24/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Carl H (08/24/02; 23:18:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 83632)
@Boilermaker: EIA Numbers
I am inclined to disagree regarding the primary motivation of the manipulation of the EIA data.

Since what you propose is probably the simplest explanation, Occam's Razor puts the burden of proof on me.

I see the NG data manipulations as simply one more cog in the strong dollar policy (or as someone here called it "the weak commodity policy"). The things that make me think this include:

1. Plot the EIA NG price data since 1975. On this plot mark the point in time where the President's Working Group on Financial Markets was formed. Observe the very marked difference in the behavior of the price of natural gas before and after this point in time. Before that point, the curve is smooth slowly varying. After that point, the price is rapidly varying and looks like a sawtooth capped at $2.00 for the next ~10 years. It looks to me like a covert price control.

2. We know of other government statistics that are manipulated to support the strong dollar policy. The the CPI for instance. If you have not read the paper "The Fuzzy CPI", you should. In addition to the questionable formulas used, it is always announced, and then revised -- usually for the worse. I personally doubt that this one is manipulated just for personal profit motives simply because it is so integral to the strong dollar policy.

3. We know that other commodites are manipulated in support of the strong dollar policy. I don't think you would find any argument here that gold and silver are manipulated in persuit of the strong dollar policy. Although this has not really been mentioned on this forum, I will point out the HUGE increases in farm subsidies in the past few years. This is a way causing over production which keeep prices of farm goods in the toilet. Given these examples, and the importance of NG, it is not a stretch to imagine TPTB wanting to control the price of it.

4. The manipulation of the drilling results from the EIA apppeared to be the optomistc direction. While you might want to manipulate them in this direction for personal profit, you would certainly want to manipulate them in this direction for the strong dollar policy.

Thoughts?



Boilermaker (08/24/02; 19:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 83631)
Carl H - EIA gas storage numbers
I'm pretty sure that the EIA gas storage numbers are phony. I'm not sure the EIA people are manipulating the numbers because I can come up with a better motive for the people that report the numbers. The motive is "buy low, sell high".

Gas storage guys are middlemen, net buyers during the summer and net sellers during the winter. Over-report summer storage numbers to hold prices down when you're a net buyer and then report the "revised" numbers when you are starting into the net sell season. The foxes are in charge of the chicken coop in the NG market.

Black Blade (08/24/02; 17:04:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 83630)
Bankruptcies hit small firms
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_1342879,00.html


Snippit:

Colorado small-business owners felt the recession's pinch last year, with 25 percent more of them filing for bankruptcy in 2001 than in 2000. A total of 467 small businesses (fewer than 500 employees) in Colorado filed for bankruptcy last year, compared with 373 in 2000 and 347 in 1999, according to a U.S. Small Business Administration survey released Thursday. Nationally, 39,719 small businesses filed for bankruptcy in 2001, up 12.8 percent from 35,225 in 2000.

Economists don't see the economic picture for small-business owners brightening in the near term. The Vectra Bank Colorado Small Business Index published earlier this month dropped to its lowest point of the year - to 71.2 in July from 75.1 in June. The index weighs different economic factors, such as unemployment, to create monthly comparisons. Essentially, the lower the number, the more difficult it is for small businesses to succeed.


Black Blade: Some "economic recovery".



Black Blade (8/24/02; 16:54:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 83629)
Ex-Enron CFO Kin's Funds Said Frozen
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020824/enron_fastow_accounts_4.html


U.S. Judge Freezes Accounts Belonging to Family Members of Ex-Enron CFO Fastow, Source Says

Snippit:

HOUSTON (AP) -- Prosecutors have drawn closer to Enron's former chief financial officer, freezing brokerage accounts belonging to his family members a day after a trusted aide pleaded guilty, a person familiar with the case said.The accounts were frozen by a federal judge after Andrew Fastow's brother, Peter Fastow, tried to move several million dollars from one account to another as part of an unrelated civil case, according to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. Magistrate Calvin Botley signed several warrants Thursday and sealed both the warrants and the sealing order, Botley's case manager Paul Yebernetsky said Friday. He declined to discuss the contents of the warrants.


Black Blade: Time to pay the piper. On Thursday lawyers representing Enron and WorldCon employees met to discuss asset seizures for their clients claims. I imagine they will have to look at "secret" accounts in the Cayman's and Switzerland too.



Black Blade (8/24/02; 16:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 83628)
Grubman personifies what stinks
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1026144521015&call_page=TS_Business&call_pageid=968350072197&call_pagepath=Business/News&col=969048863851


Snippit:

SINGLE-HANDEDLY, a fleshy faced amateur-boxer-turned-securities-analyst named Jack Grubman has taken his entire profession on the road to perdition. Somebody was bound to do it. Who better than the man Business Week dubbed the Michael Jordan of analysts? Who better than the guy who consistently and persistently blurred the lines between objective stock analysis — the job he was supposed to be doing for Salomon Smith Barney — and investment-banking wheeling and dealing that brought mega-millions to Salomon and many millions to himself? (A reported $20 million U.S. in 1999 alone.) Who better than the man who stood shoulder to shoulder with the likes of former WorldCom Inc. chief executive Bernie Ebbers, transforming the telecom industry, or "sculpting" it, as he liked to say. Into dust. Let Jack Grubman, who parted company with Salomon last week, stand as the personification of everything that stink, stank, stunk about the analysts' game in the past decade. Look at what he rot. (Yes, I'm using that word intentionally.)


Black Blade: The games that are played on Wall Street. The little guy doesn't have a chance against the insiders who fix the markets. Grubman is typical of Wall Street analysts. They are not interested in objective analysis, but rather in the business they attract for their employers and the resulting bonuses. Wall Street has evolved from a den of thieves into one huge boiler room and "bucket shop". If you want to play the stock market game, you have to do your own research and be extremely careful – even that is no guarantee as many companies won't tell the truth either. Case in point – Enron, WorldCon, Global Crossing, Qwest, Tyco, Kmart, etc. etc. etc. Now is the time to be on the defense.



pdeep (8/24/02; 15:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 83627)
The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
http://www.ecotopia.com/webpress/stupidity/
I came across this gem in Whole Earth Review back in the Spring of 1987, and it is probably more relevant now at some levels. I thought the ladies and gents here might enjoy it. Written by an economist, Carlo M. Cipolla, who was at UC Berkeley. Humor or trenchant analysis? You decide. An excerpt, the last two paragrpahs of the piece:

"Whether one considers classical, or medieval, or modern or contemporary times one is impressed by the
fact that any country moving uphill has its unavoidable s fraction of stupid people who manage to keep
the s fraction at bay and at the same time produce enough gains for themselves and the other members
of the community to make progress a certainty.

In a country which is moving downhill, the fraction of stupid people is still equal to s; however in the
remaining population one notices among those in power an alarming proliferation of the bandits with
overtones of stupidity (sub-are B2 of quadrant B in figure 3) and among those not in power an equally
alarming growth in the number of helpless individuals (are H in basic graph, fig. 1). Such change in the
composition of the non-stupid population inevitably strengthens the destructive power of the s fraction
and makes decline a certainty. And the country goes to Hell."

Helpless = goldless?

goldquest (8/24/02; 10:39:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 83626)
Predictions
in a free and open market might work. But with all of the skulduggery going on in the world, I don't believe anyone except the thieves and manipulators can predict the direction of the markets.
See Skolnicks latest article. He really flames JPM.

Pete (8/24/02; 10:26:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 83625)
Gann, Elliot and beyond
http://www.dprins.demon.nl/convergence/research1.html
How would you like to predict the gold market, stock market or any market into the future exactly by price and date to within 1% +/-? That's exactly the claim of Bradley Cowan. Brad brings the Elliot wave and Gann to a new dimension in his books. It's not cheap by any means.

I purchased his course recently and found his discoveries of price-time-vectors and ellipses surrounding them amazing. To understand his concepts you should be proficient in math; be prepared to spend time and then some conceptualizing and studying. If you've ever studied analytic and descriptive geometry you'll know what I mean.

I thought I would share this information with anyone who would be willing to venture into the twilight zone. ;)

www.cycle-trader.com/author.htm

Using the link supplied Scroll down to:

THAT'S RIGHT… THE STOCK MARKET!

Snip:

A MASONIC SCHOLAR USES "ATLANTEAN KNOWLEDGE" TO REVEAL THE HIDDEN
STRUCTURE OF THE MARKET

We are about to show that a member of the Masonic secret society known as W.D. Gann made some outrageous "discoveries" of the geometric patterns of time that will emerge in the stock market. As we have written in Convergence and the Enterprise Mission has extensively investigated as well, there is a great deal of evidence to suggest that the true knowledge of this octave-based system of hyperdimensional geometry that we are now discussing has been secretly known all along. The society of Freemasons is one current guise of this "secret society" that has preserved this knowledge, which Gann used to make his "findings."

For most readers, the idea that an apparently random phenomenon such as the movement of a stock's
price value in time could occur in specific, ordered intervals and vectors seems far, far too simple to be
true. However, Gann proved his case with extensive documentation beyond any shadow of a doubt. And thus, even though you can find Gann's books in the library, many traders are still selling copies of Gann's Master Course for Stocks, a huge compilation of Gann's writings and lectures over many years, for absurdly expensive prices. And people will buy them, just because of the promises of profit that are hidden within them, if they can keep and study the books long enough to understand how to do it. And here, we are really only describing the absolute basics of this enormously complicated body of information.

And now, enter Bradley Cowan, who may eventually be known on a very widespread public level as the man who silently turned the entire field of stock market analysis on its end at a very young age, and also made a significant breakthrough in hyperdimensional physics. Little is known about Cowan, as he refuses to give interviews, lectures or public appearances, seeking rather to allow his books to speak for
themselves. There are two basic sets of books that Cowan has produced, namely "Four-Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles" and "Market Science." This author has not purchased either of these sets of books yet, as the complete collection is about five hundred dollars. And thus, our knowledge of the specifics of Cowan's information comes from interviewing approximately twelve different clients of Cowan's, each of which are actively using these principles to play the stock market.



Boilermaker (8/24/02; 10:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 83624)
Darkhorse
I must agree with you, ie., a fool and his gold are soon parted.

darkhorse (8/24/02; 09:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 83623)
@Boilermaker
You stated:

"...the most important "resource" to store is the one that will be the means to obtain all the others, gold and silver."

I humbly disagree, and choose to go with the advice of my favorite bestseller (sorry, I don't remember Ch/verse) to choose wisdom and knowledge over silver and gold. I pray for the former, and devote as much income as I can to the latter. The former is priceless, the latter is a tool.


Paper Avalanche (8/24/02; 08:31:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83622)
good article on evolution of paper money from gold standard
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1028
have a great weekend

Boilermaker (8/24/02; 08:03:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 83621)
Leigh re resources and self sufficiency
Sorry for the delayed response to your post 83597......

"As I read your post, I was reminded of the Depression and World War II years, when people grew gardens, saved string and foil, captured rainwater (like you're doing), and cut down on meat and butter. Don't you feel that people today can re-learn those skills? Even if some businesses close and the country isn't thriving, citizens can survive."

Of course there will be many folks who will survive and even thrive in the depression era to come. One group that comes to mind is the Amish. I live not far from a large Amish community and use Amish contractors and purchase their produce and products. There are also many marginally employed people in the labor force who will manage to scrounge a living much as they do today by being willing to do whatever work comes along and by ditching whatever luxury life styles they may have become accustomed to.

Another group who will prosper are those who will design and manufacture all those goods that we now import. The US economy will go through a transition from a financial ponzi scheme to a more sustainable "make or pay for what you consume". Gasoline prices may relegate SUV's to becoming homeless shelters or fishing reefs. Energy independence can be won when gasoline hits $5.00/gallon as it surely will. Domestic O&G will have a revival of investment.

I see the greatest threat is to those at the top of the financial pyramid who are dependent on high salaries in businesses that will all but disappear. These folks have tremendous exposure to financial risk and will find it difficult to downsize their personal empires fast enough to avoid bankruptcy or to stoop low enough to support themselves in a ruthless job market.

Another group that will face extreme hardship will be the elderly who are dependent on private and/or government pensions. Fortunately they have enough collective political clout to insure some measure of relief.

During WWII when there was no lack of jobs but there was a definite lack of resources we did not have a car. My father commuted to NYC every day by riding his bike to the train station. No doubt bikes, busses and trains will be more popular than SUV's. We also had a vacant lot next door that we and several other families used for "Victory" gardens.

I have secured some measure of resource independence by living on a farm with its own water and natural gas supply. I don't produce crops other than pasture for horses. We have a generator for emergency power and a gasoline storage tank for cars and tractors. There's deer, turkeys and rabbits out back and lots of apple trees. Lots of roadkill for the taking.

I believe that many of today's families will respond in a positive manner once they understand what was perpetrated on the US economy by the financial and political elite. After the "lynchings" they will get back to work. The key to having this positive response from the people is purging the system of its systemic disease and installing honest leadership. Only time will tell if that will happen.

In the meantime the most important "resource" to store is the one that will be the means to obtain all the others, gold and silver.

Usul (8/24/02; 06:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 83620)
Hegemony, international debt, etc.
http://www.people.virginia.edu/~hms2f/hegemony.html
"...Abandonment of pre-war gold parities for fiduciary currencies caused differential rates of inflation and dislocated exchange rates. The major (and many minor) combatants borrowed heavily to finance the enormous costs of war production. This decreased the ability of the major pre-war creditor countries, Britain, France and Germany, to continue relatively high and stable patterns of long term lending to developing and (almost the same thing) primary product exporting areas..."

"...When the 1929 stock market crash was aggravated by bank failures and tight domestic monetary policy, little capital was left for investment overseas. Absent a last resort lender, international trade collapsed under the weight of competitive currency devaluations, trade restrictions and bilateral deals, falling from $2.9 billion in 1929 to $1.1 billion in 1932..."




Usul (8/24/02; 06:12:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 83619)
The second great depression will not be televised
http://www.depression2.tv/2001/twilight.html
"The "Asian Contagion" - a series of market crashes, competitive currency devaluations, and economic malaise that began in 1997, loomed like a specter over the apparent good fortune of the U.S. economy. It hung dark and menacing on the horizon, like a storm that could either blow in and wreak havoc or disperse harmlessly to sea. The "Contagion's" threat to the U.S. economy was deemed vague and too distant, and after 2 years with no discernible effect, were all but dismissed. As always, what you don't know can't hurt you. Until it does..."



Knallgold (8/24/02; 02:52:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 83617)
Swiss bashing
It came en vogue in 1996 when the "Nazi-Gold (sic!)" and "nameless accounts" affair was started by the WJC,Anglosaxion banking interests and its clintonite servants.

It proved to be a lot of hot air as the Volcker commission found only a few thousand accounts with about 50 million sFr. (not billions as accused) and most of it not related to the holocaust.Contrary to the US who "nationalizes" dormant accounts after 5(?) years,Switzerland keeps them as property of the original holder.

The bashers were terribly embarrassed as the cost of Volckers and other (so called "historians") commisions far exceeded the 50millions.For some reason the Swiss banks payed 1.5billions to the WJC,but again,the bashers are embarrased as they can't find enough people for this sum-its still on an account of a Jewish organisation.How many times did we hear the stories of the old'soon dying holocaust victims,just to force the banks further into moral offside?

The big shame is,everything was allowed to happen by the spineless Swiss gov.,oh did our leftists enjoy participating in the bashing...

And the damage is done.

This affair/blackmailing culminated in the announcement of Goldsales by the SNB,using the proceeds for a Solidarity Foundation to help all the minorities of the whole world (it remaines still so vague).

Conservative circles then had enough and launched an initiative which wants to direct the proceeds in the social security system,getting at least the money back to the people as the Gold is already lost.Well,this September we will vote about this initiative-its not surprising the Swissbashing resumes,the socialistic establishment wants that money and likes to talk the people into a bad conscience.It has worked before.

"What that country may end up with is a socialist state"
I see that danger and this is sharply observed by the Author,in fact we are marching faster than the other nations (ie debt doubling! between 1990-2000).Though the current malaise is increasingly associated with the left establishment.

"using bank secrecy to attract dirty money from every crooked corner of the world" - crooked corner,did the author mean the US? Sorry,I couldn't resist.



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