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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/24/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Mr Gresham (04/24/02; 23:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 74265)
GR2: Wow!
So many things so well said...

Grubstaker (04/24/02; 21:55:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 74264)
Not to be dismissed lightly...
DEBKAfile's Exclusive Military sources:
Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier � Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements
24 April: Saudi Arabia denies it has massed 8 brigades on its Jordanian border following secret intelligence reports of Israeli troop concentrations on its frontier with Jordan. (The Kingdom of Jordan is wedged between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and Syria.) Israel denied the Saudi claim Tuesday, April 23. The comeback was fast:� "A responsible source" at the kingdom's defense and aviation ministry stated that Saudi armed forces units are merely conducting "routine exercises" in the northwestern region, not beefing up their troop presence there.
The next step in this unfolding exchange of claims and denials was another report from Riyadh on Thursday, April 24, that Israeli jets were flying over Jordan's border with the oil kingdom. Saudi air defenses were said to be under orders to shoot down any intruding craft.
DEBKAfile's military analysts have taken due note of Riyadh's public admission that it fears an Israeli invasion of Jordan. Even more noteworthy is its timing: 48 hours before Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz travels to President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas.
Here, then, is a transparent Saudi gambit, based on the cynical exploitation of the Israeli military bugbear. This gambit, in the view of our analysts, is employed by Riyadh for three purposes:
First, to manufacture tension on the Saudi-Jordanian-Israel borders in order to back up Abdullah's attempt to railroad Israel as the generator of military escalation in the region.
Second, as a device to cut short the Saudi crown prince's American visit. Riyadh-Washington relations have never been so bad. (Read earlier DEBKA report on this page: Bush-Abdullah talks: To Paper over Cracks?) Since the Saudi ruler could not wriggle out his American trip, he needed a pretext for an early departure for home.
Third, Saudi rulers have been forewarned of impending Iraqi troop movements focusing on Jordan and are taking military precautions to keep the coming military exchanges from spilling over into home territory.
Riyadh, while attempting to fabricate a crisis around Jordan's borders � and pin it on Israel � knows exactly what is really going on. The Israeli troop presence along the border of the Hashemite kingdom � which Israeli spokesmen consistently deny � is there with Amman's consent for the sole purpose of deterring Saddam from invading Jordan. The Saudis are also perfectly aware that Iraq led the way in kicking off this round of military moves and that Israel countered with a blocking tactic.
DEBKAfile 's military sources provide details of the Iraqi troop movements.
The force Iraq started massing some weeks ago consists of 3-4 of its 7 crack Republican Guard divisions, which are stationed in the center of the country opposite the Jordanian frontier. They are fanned out across a 300-sq.km stretch of land, bounded by four bases: H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest and H-3 Northwest � 350 km. west of Baghdad - and the big al Baghdadi ground and air base west of the town of Rutbah.
The Iraqi high command reckons the first American strike, carried out under the cover of a bombing and missile barrage, will try and capture this area and take over the four bases - much in the way a main US base was set up in Kandahar, Afghanistan. From there US forces will threaten the capital, Baghdad.
The Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two contingents. One, led by Saddam Hussein's son, Qusay, will fall back toward Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and seize its eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital, Amman.
The Israeli troop concentration the Saudis are referring to � whose presence Israeli spokesmen deny � is poised to defend Jordan against this very Iraqi assault.
By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force, trapping it in an isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles carrying chemical and biological agents. Simultaneously, Iraqi missile barrages will be aimed at Israel and US military targets in the Jewish state, as well as American militaryfacilities in the Gulf, Kuwait and Qatar.
Iraq is also getting set to counter alternative US tactics. This week, Baghdad deployed heavy reinforcements of anti-air missile batteries in the southern and northern no-fly zones patrolled by US and British allied planes. This move was a preventive measure against a possible US attempt to seize Iraq's northern and southern oilfields. The batteries are aimed not only against bombers but also large-scale helicopters squadrons flying US and British Marines in from Kuwait, Oman or Turkey.
All these plans are still on American and Iraqi drawing boards. Saudi, Jordanian and Israeli military planners are also working hard on contingency plans.
The Americans therefore have no reason to expect a short campaign. Our military experts estimate the first stage alone will last between one and two months. Saddam will certainly wield oil as a weapon. The Saudis have taken steps to reassure Washington that they have no intention of joining Baghdad in an oil embargo. On Tuesday, April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall developing on the world market.
Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally, after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical plant in the kingdom.
But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets.
Already the Saudis are operating on two levels � one reassuring Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground. The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first.

Waverider (04/24/02; 21:08:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74263)
Canuck
Greetings from the wild west coast.

a) ditto
b) ditto
c) OIL
D) Within the next 3 months

I thought we might have heard from RobotGuy today with the loonie flying higher - it likely will fly higher still as the interest rate spread b/t Canada and US widens.

Did you happen to see R. Powells #74241? It seemed to me you had recommended "Silver Bulls" - I thought you had posted a quote from it some time back, but I could be wrong.

Cheers,
Waverider

Canuck (04/24/02; 20:46:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 74262)
@ CR2
Good analysis, very technical.

I plan to run out of the gold shares early. I have a couple that I know very little about, bought on rumour, sold....
They will be exited early maybe on the next run-up, ie: the Sept. 99 resistance.

A couple stronger ones might be held until run-up two, $350/$360. At this point the hedged mighties might be feeling the heat. This point will surely separate the so-called hedge strung-out from the 'non-hedgers'.

My 'proxy-for-gold' will be held well past $360 probably to $500 (although less of) and then I will be too nervous to hold any paper. By $500 an ounce paper should be well of fire.

Plan 'Black Blade' will be underway post $500, when, wow, within a year? I see struggling at the $330 Sept. 99 resistance at or near end of 2Q02.

Happy charting.

Canuck (04/24/02; 20:30:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74261)
Let's have a poll
A)Chances of Iraq invasion
B)The magnitude
C)Why

A)98%
B)Major
C)Hussein admission of sponsering suicide bombers ($25,000)
Probable involvement in 911, again monetary sponsership. Lead terrorist on planet.

Canuck (04/24/02; 20:24:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 74260)
David Dodge leads 10:00pm news
Economy is too hot, CDN CB has an obvious bias towards tightening, projecting an average 'short rate' of 3.25 this year, raised from 2.00 to 2.25% last week. (I might have that number incorrect; maybe 2.50 from 2.25)

Big time news, Bell Canada boss John Monty packs his bags, after 27 years at the head, internet volatility has him spooked.

Maybe. A successor was on the business news at 6:00pm this evening. He was on his babble, John this, John that and then I heard a slip. Apparently BCE COULD NOT JUSTIFY ITS ACQUISTIONS, ITS GROWTH NUMBERS, ITS BOTTOM LINE. He said this, not as direct as above but damn near.

Red Alert! The accounting fallout is gaining ground.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (04/24/02; 19:56:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 74259)
No Comment, Did I say something beef or?
The way POG is now above 300 and bouncing along a few dollars above means they have admitted defeat in the short term. Once resistance is broken it often "lays" on that zone and hops until buying dries up all offered. The shares are pre-empting the POG move beyond 320. Major analysts who have large followings are calling for 350 gold by years end. So the publicity there, and continued deterioration of the stock market indexes is funneling money into the goldshares and this breakout shows it's only about 25% completed. MADC's are rolling positive and have not leveled off. Previous breakouts during the past 3 years were started with short squeeze covering panics. This one is different, shorts have covered and it's longs climbing onboard. The two wave rally thus far could be a retake of possibly a Spring 93 rally, as that one took two initial waves to finally do a mega-breakout. The question is being asked this week,"So what do YOU think about gold?", to every analyst. Any analyst who gives back negative talk sounds like an idiot. So negative press is abating. They'd rather just change the subject. This thing is moving faster than even the internet rallies. The entire goldmine sector could be purchased with some 25 billion dollars. So when the scared money wants to go into it, it always looks undervalued. The sad thing about this is that once they double and triple from here, they will be subject to radical selloffs as the funds move into metal and leave the politically "rigged" goldshares to the dumb money. It's blasting off now but mega-breakouts do not last long. They are going to move up so fast, by the time the dumb money arrives, there will be plenty of funds selling off and moving into physical.

A mega-breakout can be understood by observing the shell of a snail. The unwinding of an ellipitcal spiral, exponential buying demand is what the Fibonacci sequence is about. How much water is contained in two equal shape and width water waves one being 8 feet high and one being 16 feet high? Not a 2 to 1 ratio as we might think. Exponential volume growth occurs as you move up from the 8 to the 16 foot height of the wave. Exponential rates of growth are mind boggling and this is why logarithmic scales are used to factor out the exponent and return the scale to linear dimensions so it can be more easily charted. Then you can put away the french curves and draw straight lines again. That is beyond what I do but the theory is interesting to me. The POG bouncing above 300 for this duration is sending out the signal "We lost this trench and pull the guys back to 325 and re-establish shorts there." It's an admission of failure. We'll see at what level they re-attack the price. No one knows where it will be. The shorting attack on the shares has been ocurring on the backside after the rallies are temporarily over. They try to shake the shares out of the weak hands. The Cabal is not strong enough to stop a rally in progress but they do enjoy shorting the rally after the first sign of weakness. There should be a serious rally in the POG very soon. The gold rally was always called a "temporary event". Since it is not returning, it invalidates the false premis and solidifies the consensus that "it is different this time" it's a bull market in gold!
People just want to stop worrying, they want financial peace. There is a day for every event under the sun. Now is not the time to sell too early. There will be a day when all this stuff (paper gold) will be way overpriced and the big funds WILL shift into physical metal at some point. So let each man remain in the state in which he was converted to "goldbug". Hast thou metal, why dost thou wish to sell thy metal and purchase shares? Do you have shares? Why do you want to sell too early and lack funds for metal? That's my take on it. The same people who laugh at 300 gold will be going bananas to buy it at 450. And if you say "Sounds like another goldbug crying "gold" like a boy who cried "wolf". Is a parabolic XAU a bluff in the dark? Today was caldera smoke. DON'T sell too soon. We have been patiently waiting for this REAL breakout for 5 long kicked in the mud years. After they rocket up, fire in the sell order and send the proceeds to your physical fund site. Hey dude your getting real gold metal? I'm not hypeing gambling in papur goald. I'm just saying if you are so inclined, then best to you.

Golden Bear (04/24/02; 19:52:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 74258)
Article on inflation / deflation from the Daily Reckoning.
Excellent point regarding inflation and deflation co-existing as bubbles grow and then pop...

------------------------------------------

THE JANUS ECONOMY
by Sean Corrigan

The manic enthusiasm for property - the so-called
"housing boom" fuelled by loose credit on both sides of
the Atlantic - has another, darker face. Alongside the
flourishing residential real estate boom, we also have
an ongoing commercial property glut.

In the U.S., for example, office vacancy rates are
between 16-22% in key metropolitan districts such as
Miami, LA, Atlanta, Dallas-FW and Boston.

The Denver-Boulder high-tech "corridor" is suffering so
heavily that "For Rent" signs swing over 35% of the
buildings there.

In London, the first quarter of 2002 saw the worst take-
up in a decade with lettings (rentals) running at half
the rate of two years ago, and with speculative
construction amounting to around 16 months' current
absorption.

But this real estate anomaly is only one manifestation
of what might be termed the Janus Economy.

Janus, to step back a bit and explain, was the Roman God
of gates and doors, beginnings and endings, represented
by a double-faced head, each looking opposite
directions.

For some time the economies of both the U.S. and the UK
have been grappling with the twin evils of deflation and
inflation. One represents the collapse of over-
investment in the IT sector. The other is the result of
a coordinated effort by central bankers around the globe
to try and stave off economic crises.

While technology in the U.S. has undergone a once-in-a-
lifetime bust, with "networkers" off 77% since the 2000
top and "telecoms" down 68%, health care is up 185%,
home builders gained 190% and defense is up 245%.

Where does this all lead? Luckily - or maybe not - we
have a model, which teaches us...almost nothing. Witness
an article in the Japan Times this weekend, where the
latest crank suggestion came from one Professor Ron Dore
of the London School of Economics.

The mad professor thinks the only way for Japan to get
out of the mess it is in is to...um...create inflation.
Dore has come up with the novel idea that during the
spring wage talks, the Japanese government needs to
coerce the private sector into boosting wages across the
board by at least 4 percent...thus creating inflation
and giving consumers confidence.

Companies would then be willing to invest in new
ventures as they could envisage better returns, he
argues. Professor Dore appears to have neglected to
calculate the threat posed by inflation to the companies
who must pay the wages. With increased labour costs,
companies will be forced to shed labour to reduce the
wage bill again.

"Such a coordinated wage rise has never happened in
post-war history, but then neither has such a prolonged
period of deflation," enthuses the Prof.

Could this perhaps be because when Herbert Hoover
persuaded businesses to coordinate a real wage rise in
1929 - by keeping dollar wages flat in the face of
declining prices - there soon followed exactly such a
"prolonged period of deflation," one which has since
gone by the colloquial title "The Great Depression"?

Probably not. Because academics don't do history like
the rest of us. The professor is not likely to ascribe
any cause - especially not one contrary to economic
theory - to the greatest financial crisis of the 20th
century.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, pure and simple. If
people are given more money than they wish to hold, they
will exchange it for goods or assets. To the extent that
these are also not supplied in a greater profusion than
the demand absorbs, their prices will rise.

The change in prices will not be homogeneous. If only it
were, there might be a faint hope of at least some
offsetting benefits. Instead, when the newly increased
money begins to work, it will critically alter costs
throughout the economy and thus exert sizeable
influences on business planning.

These influences - being highly arbitrary - are usually
unpredictable and almost inevitably damaging to
investment and profitability.

Think of it this way. If high consumer spending is
keeping labour rates elevated and is diverting energy
resources, building materials and whatever else to
realtors and shopping malls, multiplexes and therapists'
couches, "productive industry" has a harder fight not
just for the end dollar, but also for the means of
producing a final product.

This is true even absent inflation, but if extra money
is added to the mix, a wedge is now being driven between
those who create and those who destroy.

With this extra money, people will increase their
spending first on necessities - such as health insurance
and energy - and on ineluctables - such as government
defence spending - and their prices will rise.

Rising prices in these areas will attract more
production, as well as more credit and capital to
reinforce their enhanced cashflows. Products with rising
prices will tend to be bid out of the hands of
productive industries and hence withdrawn from them,
stifling their expansion.

It is crucial to realize that whereas producer credit
can lead to wasteful business misdirection and specific
over-expansion (i.e. the New Era), consumer credit can
also end up impugning economic well-being by divorcing
the use of "purchasing" power from "earning" power...or
productive capacity.

As long as foreign producers or their governments are
willing to make up the shortfall - the former, by what
is the equivalent of a global USD vendor financing
programme, the latter, through what is effectively an
export subsidy expropriated from their own consumers -
all may seem well to Fed Chairman Greenspan and his
cohort across the ocean, Eddy George.

However, in an article in the Yomiuri Shimbun this
weekend, the downside effects of attempting to inflate
your way out of a deflationary spiral are clearly laid
out.

"Consumer goods manufacturers," says the article, "are
unsure whether to pass a surge in material prices onto
consumers, despite the ongoing deflationary crisis.
Steel and chemical manufacturers have repeatedly raised
prices of industrial materials following a decline in
inventories and surging oil prices...Semiconductor
prices have tripled since autumn...prices of steel,
fibre materials and materials for liquid crystals have
also risen.

"So far, only the prices of personal computers, gasoline
and some other consumer goods have increased as a
result, but economists warn that more price increases
would further hamper consumer spending."

However, manufacturers of finished goods would most
likely suffer a drop in profits if they did not pass
rising prices of materials onto consumers.

"This dilemma," continues the article, "has caused
manufacturers to resist attempts by material makers to
increase their prices. Meanwhile, industrial material
makers that have long suffered production cutbacks and
falling profits are determined to try to recover profits
by at least maintaining the current prices."

Ahhh! The curse of wish fulfilment in the Janus Economy.
Janus was worshipped in Rome at the beginning of the
harvest time, planting, marriage, birth and other types
of beginnings, especially the beginnings of important
events in a person's life.

One wonders, with one face looking back at the failure
of capital allocation during the New Era and the other
looking forward to the uncertainty of opening the global
money spigots what - if anything - we ought to be
celebrating this spring.

Cheers,

Sean Corrigan,
for The Daily Reckoning

Solomon Weaver (04/24/02; 19:15:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74257)
Hey Sierra
Doesn't the French word for Money mean "silver"?

POS

Canuck (04/24/02; 19:07:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74255)
"...channeling the hyperinflation..."
Interesting topic, bounced about this forum about a year ago when Aristotle was AWOL.

We saw the FED 'channel' the monetary excess into the stock market in 1999/2000. As the SM's crashed and burned money was backpeddled and stored in 'cash'. Record amounts, trillions.

So in the last couple years (along with the late 90's) 'cash' was re-directed to the housing market, well why not. Money ALWAYS chasing the highest ROI.

If one gets a fat egg in the tech sector while realizing 20% in real estate where is the flow? I heard the other day from a top notch realtor what defines a hot housing market:
a) low interest rates
b) a rising return ie: housing going up
c) consumer confidence ie: wealth effect and low unemployment

I might add d) no other alternative viable investment.

So enormus money sits on the sideline, Wall Street is begging (kissing ass actually) for J.Q. Public to put his hard earned stash back into the market because a) the 'bottom is in' and b) the economy has turned the corner.

Mr. Public is concerned, he is only a year, year and a half past his most recent flogging. Know many people jumping back into tech and index funds? A little ripple is flowing into resource, a ripple into energy, a ripple into 'value' stocks.

The big money is ready to rip and roar. Aristotle's question of 'channeling into gold' is indeed eye-popping. We know the numbers, a couple percent into the yellow would go a long way. Will this arrest the inflation? We shall see.

I have heard 2 speeches from David Dodge, head of the Canadian Cental Bank, in the last 2 days. He is worried of inflation. He pulled the trigger last week and raised rates and today mentioned probable, serious rate increases this year. Big time, sloshing money chasing goods, RED ALERT!

Yesterday we debated Greenspan's reluctance to raise rates, he might wait until August, right! He will be so behind the curve so severely, check articles from bond experts. And we hear rumours that the FED is demanding interest rate devirative curtainment of 50 and 70 percent. Yes, rumours, no one has verified jack diddly. We hear gold short covering and the like blah, blah, and big time open interest closure.

So the heavies need time to sort out big time issues before Greenspan goes on a rambage? Greenie went overboard on the overheated economy and then went overboard on the cooling, the FED is out of control.

Where's the pent up demand going? Well I hope Ari is right but who really knows? What's the next wave?

As the recent posts go, when gold hits several thousand dollars imagine the mess of everything else we are accustomed to.

R Powell (04/24/02; 19:04:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 74254)
Nevada Silver
Black Blade's earlier post (74187) gives a link to an article in a Nevada Newspaper. I noticed especially the last line in which a Mr. Coyner states that mining supplies money. It's not debated, just stated.

CoBra- thanks for the reply as the jacket cover gives a picture of Mr. Sarnoff and the book was copyrighted in 1980 so I was wondering if he is still alive. The book also lists other books by the author. It lists 29 titles. I hope your friend found satisfaction in their creation.
I'm not quite half way through my first. If I succeed and there are to be more, then the first will have to be, by far, the hardest.
Rich

Trurl (04/24/02; 18:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 74253)
Reaction to winning Argentina tears essay
The various Argentina tears were excellent; much harder than guessing a number.

In reading the winning essay, two ideas for concrete action came to mind.

Yes, this is a gold site; gold 24x7. But what do you do with short term funds you may need soon? It is this which makes me expect we will always have fiat/plastic credit. It's just too convenient.

But here are two things to consider doing with non-PM funds.

1) Ever consider giving your bank a seven day notificiation of your intent to withdrawal funds *NOW*?
Why wait? ( in the US at least, banks can by law require the written notification of seven days notice of intent to withdrawel funds from interest bearing accounts.

2) Consider US Savings bonds for at least some of your funds. There is no overhead expense. There is no state tax. Taxes can be deferred until they are cashed. You can cash them at *ANY* bank. ( It's part of their franchise of being called a bank that they must do this...) Currently fairly good interest rates. Bank regulation changes may miss them, since they are really outside the banking system.
You can always cash them at a Federal Reserve Bank...Maybe.

This is where I keep my unemployement fund stashed.

Just things to think about for the holistic PGA. Why yes, I do live in CA ;-)

Trurl (04/24/02; 18:45:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74252)
better link for gold reporting requirement changes
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/po3034.htm

Here's a link to the US Treasury site which has slightly more details about new gold reporting regulations.

snippit:

The Department is also exercising its authority to defer, for a period of no more than six months, the application of section 352 to the remaining categories of financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act to allow Treasury time to study these new industry sectors and develop regulations applicable to them.

The business sectors subject to further study include dealers in precious metals, stones, or jewels; pawnbrokers; loan or finance companies; private bankers; insurance companies; travel agencies; telegraph companies; a business engaged in vehicle sales, including automobiles, airplanes, and boats; persons involved in real estate closings and settlements; investment companies other than mutual funds; and commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisors.

end snippit.

comment: So its going to be less than 6 months. Still, considering what happened in Argentina, wouldn't you rather be a month early than one day late?

Black Blade (04/24/02; 18:36:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74251)
Worldwide worries raise gold price expectations
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1172166,00.html

Snippit:

London - Political and economic uncertainty in the world and strong market fundamentals have led gold experts to lift their price forecasts for the metal, analysts said on Tuesday. But analysts caution that the metal will have to stay above $300 for a sustained period and break through a new trading level to continue to attract buyers.

"Gold cannot carry on treading water at the $303 mark... Even $305 is not going to keep investors holding on to long positions," said Kevin Crisp, director of global commodities research at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

Black Blade: If Gold can establish $300.00/oz. As a floor, then it should begin moving higher soon. Over the last 24 hours (NY close) � Gold attempted to break through the $305.00/oz. 14 times before being pushed back.

Arcticfox (04/24/02; 18:28:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74250)
Look what just happened in Japan..
http://www.astrikos.com/public/japan.html
EOM..

Black Blade (04/24/02; 18:27:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74249)
Dubai greedy for gold trade
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1172642,00.html

Snippit:

Dubai - Dubai, the self-styled "city of gold", on Wednesday launched a metal and commodities centre for trading gold, diamonds and key commodities with an initial goal of securing half of the global gold trade.

The Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC) will be a free zone offering 100% ownership and a 50-year tax holiday to resident companies, DMCC financial advisor Hamid Kazim told a press conference.

The centre will offer physical trading facilities, storage, hallmarking, package and delivery facilities, a training centre and a gems lab, as well as "transparency, flexibility and a regulatory environment of international standard," said Kazim.

Black Blade: All for a barbarous relic. I wonder how this will fit in with the US Government claims of terrorist financing. Hmmm�

Black Blade (04/24/02; 18:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74248)
Survey: Gold shows more upside
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1172721,00.html

Snippit:

London - Prospects of increasing investor interest and declining producer hedge books continue to support the gold price despite weak fabrication demand, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services' Gold Survey 2002, released on Wednesday.

Black Blade: Yet another Bullish Gold article.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 18:17:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74247)
Gold on edge of 'new era'
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BA500629E38?OpenDocument

Snippit:

GFMS said the crux of gold's recovery, which culminated in the metal bursting through the $300 per ounce barrier, was the net decline in producer hedging. This was, in turn, influenced by the less favourable contango, corporate activity and expectations of higher prices. These factors would probably keep hedging down and keep shorts out the market in the future, Walker said. Producer hedging declined for a second consecutive year generating 147 tons of physical demand with the fall most pronounced in the fourth quarter, GFMS said.

The other important factor was the swing to reinvestment among gold investors. Total world reinvestment by gold investors was 235 tons in 2001, compared to disinvestment of 26 tons in 2000 (and a positive 558 tons in 1999). "Let's call this a bull market, although a modest one at the moment," Walker said. Implied net disinvestment fell dramatically to just 53 tons last year, owing to a sharp decline in physical sales by private investors in Europe and North America.

Black Blade: Gold Bears are falling over themselves as they rush to become Gold Bulls. Of course the big turning points in Gold have been the "Japanese Gold Rush" and the end of any significant hedging.

Arcticfox (04/24/02; 18:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74246)
Recession or not...
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/114/business/Data_suggest_recession_delivered_blow_to_incomes+.shtml
Data suggest recession delivered blow to incomes

By Associated Press, 4/24/2002

ASHINGTON - Last year's recession, currently viewed as the mildest in US history, may not have been so mild after all, some private economists said after looking at new government data yesterday.

A state-by-state report released by the Commerce Department showed that Americans' incomes for all of 2001 were considerably smaller than the government had previously estimated in another report on the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health.

Some private economists believe the lower estimate of personal incomes - a component in calculating the GDP - will result in a significant downward revision to GDP for all of 2001. Last year, the economy, already slumping when it was jolted by the Sept. 11 terror attacks, grew by just 1.2 percent, a big slowdown from 4.1 percent increases posted in 1999 and 2000.

Each year, the government revises estimates of GDP for certain periods, based on more complete data. It will release annual benchmark revisions for 2001, along with 1999 and 2000, on July 31.

Yesterday's report showed that incomes grew 3.7 percent in 2001, while the most recent GDP report, released in March, said incomes rose 4.9 percent. The difference of 1.2 percentage points works out to $90 billion.

''It sounds to me that they are going to have to revise away a lot of last year's growth, and it will turn out that the recession was indeed a recession and was more severe than previously thought,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

Even if that turns out to be the case, private economists said, it doesn't change the widespread belief that the economy is now recovering from a recession that began in March 2001.

Steve Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, wouldn't comment on potential revisions. But he did say the initial estimates in the GDP reports included assumptions the government makes about wages and salaries that often get revised.

Sung Won Sohn, Wells Fargo's chief economist, said he didn't believe the lower personal income figures were significant. ''I don't think it will change the conclusion that we had the mildest recession during the postwar period.''

Zandi said it's possible that GDP in the second quarter of last year, which grew at an anemic rate of 0.3 percent, could be revised into negative territory. That would mean the economy shrank during the period.

Arcticfox (04/24/02; 18:08:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74245)
Don't know if anyone posted this yet......
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020423/economy_consumers_abc_1.html
Tuesday April 23, 6:31 pm Eastern Time
Reuters Securities
ABC/Money-U.S. consumer confidence drops sharply on week

NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - A weekly measure of U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply last week as the faith of Americans in the economy recovery appeared to falter, the ABC News/Money Magazine poll indicated on Tuesday.

ABC/Money said its Consumer Comfort Index slipped to negative 5 in the latest survey from positive 1 in the prior week, one of the steepest drops on record. The index ranges from positive 100 to negative 100.

The decline was roughly in line with a decrease in confidence seen in the University of Michigan's more closely watched index of consumer sentiment.

That index fell in March to 94.4 from 95.7 in February as a rise in March unemployment and violence in the Mideast weighed on Americans' outlook on the future, the University of Michigan said last week.

In the ABC/Money poll, the number of Americans who believe the economy is in good shape right now fell three percentage points to 41 percent. That component stands at just over half a high of 80 percent touched during the last boom, in January 2000.

The survey's buying climate gauge, which measures consumers' willingness to part with their cash, fell to 41 percent from 45 percent.

Sixty percent of consumers rated their personal finances as excellent or good, down three percentage points from the preceding week.

The ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide each month. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

This week's results are based on 1,000 interviews taken over four weeks ended April 21.

CoBra(too) (04/24/02; 18:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74244)
@ R. Powell
Hello, Rich ... I'm only responding because of my good old friend Paul Sarnoff - who's passed away - and can't ever be replaced - in his unique way. - And to the end he was answering any question put to him - always gallantly! One of the true and blue gold advocates - even with a book called 'Superleverage' ... cb2

Arcticfox (04/24/02; 18:00:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74243)
Market wrap up...Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Wednesday's Stock Market WrapUp

MIXED MESSAGES

The much-heralded second half recovery is starting to amass a few more critics. The army of disbelievers is starting to grow. If the recovery is supposed to be on track, it certainly isn't showing up in the numbers. The plethora of earnings reports over these last few weeks is turning out to be less than stellar. In fact, many now question whether Wall Street has been much too optimistic and premature in forecasting an earnings turn around. Instead of a 7-8% downturn in earnings this past quarter, it looks like that number will be closer to 11-12% before this reporting season is over. Companies reporting so far have given no indication that things are about to miraculously improve this quarter. The best that can be said is the downturn in profits this quarter isn't as bad as the last quarter. Therefore, things must be getting better.

The problems for the stock market lie in market valuations. At the moment they are priced at perfection. Price earnings multiples of 45-60 imply growth rates that are unachievable in today's highly competitive market. Companies are saddled with high debt, which has increased interest expense eating into the bottom line. In addition to higher labor, raw material, and energy costs, companies lack pricing power in the marketplace. This limits their ability to recoup rising prices thereby reducing profit margins. In addition to lower profit potential the inherent risks in the market place is causing risk premiums to rise with investors demanding a higher return to compensate for additional risks. This translates into lower PE multiples for the same dollar in earnings. The market is resolute in its punishment of companies who fail to deliver high potential earnings growth. This is very much evident in the fall in the market's generals.

The large cap stocks that led the 90's bull market have all fallen on hard times. If you look at any graph of the market leaders such as IBM, GE, Microsoft, Cisco, and Dell, one thing is obvious -- market capitalization has fallen precipitously. With falling market caps and closer scrutiny of financial statements, companies have been deprived of their main source for growing earnings, which is rising stock prices. In the past, rising market caps reflected in inflated stock prices allowed companies to use their stock as currency for making acquisitions. This became a dependable source of earnings growth. The ability to buy sales and earnings became the chief engine for growth during the final boom years of the 90's bull market.

Those acquisitions are now starting to come home to roost as one company after another is forced to write off those expensive acquisitions through impairment charges. In addition to higher interest rate expense, impairment charges is one of the main factors hurting earnings this year. Without the ability to acquire earnings and with financial engineering now frowned upon by analysts and regulators, an important source of earnings growth has been removed from the market. This makes Wall Street consensus estimates highly suspect. There aren't any catalysts around that would create the miracles imbedded in the Street's second half recovery. In fact, the possibility for improvement in earnings has already dissipated. In the last recession, earnings rose slowly until the Fed brought down interest rates. As rates fell, companies refinanced their debt, lowering interest rate costs. This contributed to the boost in profits during the early part of the decade following the 1991 recession.

This option has already been exploited during the unprecedented interest rate cuts of last year. As the Fed cut the federal funds rate 11 times, companies used the opportunity to refinance their debt. In many cases, companies also took on more debt as cash flows dried up from a lack of real profits. Instead of unloading debt, companies actually took on new debt, adding additional interest expenses on to the income statement. The current high level of debt has been one of the main reasons profits have been so dismal outside of the impairment charges from writing off goodwill.

Today was another example of the earnings woes facing major companies. AOL Time Warner reported a loss of $54.2 billion, the biggest in US history, in costs associated with its purchase of Time Warner last year. The loss was up from the $.37 billion the company lost the year before. AOL's monstrous loss was followed by AT&T, which reported its fifth consecutive quarterly loss. The biggest long-distance telephone company said its losses widened during the current quarter to $975 million from $192 million a year ago. Sales slipped 11% for the fifth consecutive quarter. The company went on to say that long-distance sales would decline by 20% this year. AT&T's CEO, Michael Armstrong, is trying to pare back the debt from his reckless acquisition spree and prepare the company for a possible sale. It is likely the company may not survive the year before it is sold off to a much stronger and well-capitalized competitor.

Jean Marie Messier, the CEO of Vivendi Universal, faced angry shareholders and protestors at the company's annual shareholder meeting. The company reported a record loss for 2001 because of acquisitions made over the last year. Shareholders have seen their share price drop over 38% as investors have lost confidence in management's strategy to boost earnings.

Tensions in the Middle East persist, and the crisis in Argentina is far from being over. Argentine President Duhalde may fix the exchange rate bid for the Argentine peso in an effort to avert a banking collapse. Setting the rate at 3.5 peso's per dollar would make it more difficult for Argentina to get $20 billion in IMF aid. The government is refusing to cut spending, change labor laws, or take steps to cut the government's deficit. The government refuses to go on a diet and is looking for outside money to continue its profligate spending.

On the economic front, it looks like the recovery is starting to stall. On Wednesday several economic reports show mixed signs for the economy. Durable goods fell by 0.6% last month versus an expected increase of 0.1%. Excluding heavy spending on defense by government, durable goods actually fell by 1.2%. While inventory levels continue to be worked down, there is no sign on the horizon that businesses are increasing their spending. If it wasn't for defense spending by government, the declines each month over the last few quarters would be much greater.

Another report out today showed new home sales fell in March following a big surge in February. The Commerce Department reported new home sales fell by 3.1% last month to an annual rate of 878,000 units. Although the sale of new homes is getting softer, economists still hold on to beliefs that the housing sector will remain strong throughout the year. However, experts don't agree. The pace and sale of new construction isn't sustainable.

The plethora of worries from earnings to Middle East tensions caused an early morning rally to fizzle. At the end of the day all the major indexes were in the red. The tech-laden Nasdaq came close to hitting a six month low. Volume was moderate with 1.35 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.88 billion on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was negative with losers beating out winners by 16 to 15 on the New York Stock Exchange and by a wider 19 to 16 margin on the Nasdaq. Just about all sectors pulled back today led by natural gas, oil, retail and paper. The only standout was airlines, which rose on analysts� upgrades.

Treasury Market
Government bonds rallied after a tentative start, with the morning's softer-than-expected data giving investors a reason to bid up fixed-income securities. The 10-year Treasury note advanced 14/32 to yield 5.105% and the 30-year government bond rose 22/32 to yield 5.615%.

Overseas Market
European stocks fell, led by Royal Dutch Petroleum Co. and other oil companies, which dropped with crude. Ericsson and Nokia Oyj slid for the fifth day amid concern about demand for their phone equipment and handsets. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index fell for the fifth day, dropping 12.84 points, or 0.4% to 3555.03. Only three of the eight major European markets were up during today's trading.

Japanese stocks fell led by Tokyo Electron Ltd. on mounting signs that upcoming earnings from major computer related companies won't justify the 25% they gained as a group in the past 11 weeks. The Nikkei 225 stock average fell 0.5% to 11,672.88. The Topix index lost 0.5% to 1098.72.

� Copyright, Jim Puplava, April 24, 2002

John Doe (04/24/02; 17:51:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 74242)
Aristotle

Aristotle: "Would it be possible for a society to lessen the real economic damage of a hyperinflationary workout by channeling all practical monies through the course of the storm into Gold?"

An interesting question, and one I've considered myself. In practical terms, I don't believe isolating the effects of such a conversion is possible. I sense that the prices of many items are tied directly or indirectly to the price of gold, almost certainly this is the case with world oil pricing. And if oil moves with gold, so will everything else.

Certainly, to "channel" excess fiat issuance into ANY particular destination, even a deserving medium such as gold, would be tantamount to the further continuation of anti-free-market manipulations. Isn't this, more or less, what has been occurring with, first, the tech bubble, then the general market, and now residential real estate? The system-minders do all in their power to enact debt origination, minimize carrying costs, and grant tax preference to "certain" areas so that the system continues to expand unnaturally and uneconomically to the detriment of the market mechanism, negating the correct and instructive signals the market system would render. Likewise, a manipulation of fiat debt-load into gold will subvert the market, create an immense gold bubble leading to a collapse of that bubble, and further hobble the correct functioning of the market economy and any possibility of returning to functioning markets and free-market fiduciary media.

I believe in ending the rigging, including the endless collusive rigging of the government-banking cartel. I believe in letting everyone, every bank, and every government taking their lumps, more or less cold turkey, with just punishment meted out to the criminal actors and a return to free-market principles. And if gold benefits in this work out, so be it.

In short, directing money flows into gold to stem a general hyperinflation is most likely not only impossible, but counterproductive as well. That's not to imply that the system-minders wouldn't do it or try to when the time comes. Because they will if they can call the shots (they can), profit from it (they will), and be in a better (or at least recoverable) position from running gold to the moon�and part way back. This is essentially what happened in the 70's, though on a smaller scale and look where it's led us.

R Powell (04/24/02; 17:30:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74241)
Thanks to someone?
My local library called saying that a copy of "Silver Bulls" by Paul Sarnoff had been located for me.
The book jacket says Arlington House Publishers and the special tag on the book from the library lending it to our Cape Cod library association tells me it came from the Robbins Library in Arlington, MA. Anyway, it took some time to arrive and now I've forgotten who recommended it. I haven't begun yet other than the table of contents (chapter headings) but it looks very interesting.

Much of what I'm hearing of the situation in Argentina reminds me of what was described by Ferguson in "When Money Dies" which is also out of print but worth looking for. Now we hear talk of antiques and other possessions selling for cheap by people desperate for acceptable currency. Ferguson wrote of one city dwelling woman who traded a baby grand piano to a farmer for one pig and enough sacks of potatos (no e in potato) to feed her family through the winter. About this time workers demanded daily wage payment and spent the money on their way home while it could still buy something. Sometimes the cost of a restaurant meal increased between the time it was ordered and the time the bill was paid! Checks were no longer accepted by anyone for anything as their value depreciated so much before they could be cashed. Foreign currency and gold and silver were the most acceptable "money".
Out of print, hard to find books which now seem so pertainent and relevent. Is this a positive contrarian indicator?
Internet or no, I still love book reading. Who am I suppose to be thanking?
Rich

Golden Bear (04/24/02; 17:25:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74240)
Belgian (msg#: 74219) Crystal Ball, Aristotle (msg#: 74228) Chatting with Belgian
Greetings Belgian, Aristotle,

Belgian,

One of the best summaries I have read on the relative definitions of hyperinflation vs deflation, and how the world scenario might play out. Bravo!

Aristotle,

you stated:

"If, indeed, the aggregate economic dislocations and adjustments resulting from a hyperinflationary workout could be kept minimal (to the fullest extent PRACTICABLE) through a channeling of the hypermonetary hyperenergy into Gold as a means to absorb the impact, wouldn't it be conceivable that a forward-thinking group of economic advisors or central bankers would in early warnings counsel precisely this approach so that the political leaders of their threatened society could take steps to engender such an inevitable workout -- directed into Gold?"

The very fact of Gold's scarcity will make it extremely difficult for those in power to minimize the destruction of wealth across the board. As fiat money evaporates in value, the stampede will begin into Gold - millions of people scrambling to get any scraps of PM's they can lay their hands on - sudden fierce contraction of the money supply (as gold becomes the new money). Isn't this the true definition of Deflation, as the value of all other commodities and assets collapse as the value of money (gold) soars?

My simple mind cannot see how they would contain the damage - how do you stop an avalanche?

Cheers.

CoBra(too) (04/24/02; 17:17:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74239)
@ Belgium, Sir ...
... Would it be in-appropriate to ask if you'd be one
of those giants, who's footsteps may only be followed by the chosen few?

... and please, dear Sir, don't ever take this meek remark as criticis'm as I only wear 42 (8 1/2), I believe in shoe size ... somit lebe ich auf kleinem Fuss, oder?

Kidding aside, Sir B., I for one, more than appreciate your
views, though I'd be grateful if you could leave a li'l leeway for the strays - as they're apt to be homin' in before the adept chosen few, who have still to split the Red Sea - a time consuming chore.

Oh, well, whom do I tell - as the global politics lead to hell - I'd rather sell all paper for the millennial proven value of gold ... VOG - as B says - yes - und Nichts f�r Ungut mein Freund B. - CB2

Belgian (04/24/02; 16:54:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74238)
The 1001 different Goldrushes !?
Who (1) is buying what (2) Gold and when (3) ?
Jewelry / Investment / Speculative Gold, are 3 different kinds of Gold. Officials (CBs-Institutions) / Gold-traders / The General Public / Gold-Holders are 4 different groups of Gold-philes.
The POG/VOG alternates as a result of the actions of the above amalgame of actors and actions.
A POG-trend is initiated by different people for different reasons and VOG will be exposed by other Gold groups for a series of other reasons. Yes, indeed, rather complicated and surely hectic for no other reason that Gold has been freed only partially (fractionally) for such a short period of 30 years (1971).

So, pinpointing who moved POG when and for what reason is looking for a needle in the haystack. Don't search the net for information of WHO is buying/trading Gold in what form and for what purpose. The Gold-Enigma ! The very secrecy of Gold ! It is only our collective intelligency that can give this trade some logic content, but alas without much evidence.

All these different Gold-Actors with all these different strategies and timings, alternating during the prevailing circumstances. All this ultra secrecy leaves us with only POG-behavior (price-pattern) as only handle. POG is the resultant of all forces working on the VOG. Please do realize that 30 years is just a bit more than one generation (25 years). Just enough of a time lapse to have Gold ready to respond to new filosophies. Less and less price for more and more Value orientation.

The discovery phases of the awaiting Hyperinflation to become expressed are different for the multitude of Gold-Actors. But all have one red line in common : Pricebehavior ! Price-patterns glued on the shift to Valuation, away from pure pricing.

Private holders of tonnes (or/and ounces) of Physical become interested in Gold RE-Valuation, when the confetti generating machine slows down. Official Gold-Reserve managers have other agendas and timing, all in function of the intrinsic value of the reserve fiat (dollar). All other traders are price-momentum swingers.

It is TG who managed to change my idea about Gold as follows : The past 30 years POG had its cycles/waves organized by the main private Physical Gold holders (25.000 tonnes)+ Official interventions (32.000 tonnes). The core faction within those 55.000 tonnes were orchestrating the price of total above (144.000 mt) + underground reserves.

In '95/'96, something changed dramatically and purposely.
The cyclic/waving pattern changed into a concerted linear decline, also for a purpose and a reason, no other than the euro becoming a reality. The different main Gold-Actors started to change their vieuw on the precious. Price was and still is increasingly evolving to Value, anticipating pro-activily the later inevitable expression of the building Hyperinflation with great consequences for the dollar. The pr� 1971 syndrome awakened around '95/'96.

The postponement of the dollar-execution with linear POG decline had a pleasant side effect for the "PRIVATE" traditional Gold Holders *MOVERS* (not the ouncers or carateers). THEY WERE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE MORE OF THE PRECIOUS AT ALL TIME OBSCENE PRICES !! Exactly the same big classical moves that absolute rulers organize to plunder and loot the ones wich they managed to weaken (cfr. Argentina). That's how real big and voracious money operates and always will.

The modern derivative-leverages are able to flattening out any accidental period of disturbing Gold accumulation by small fish (we and the japanese or others). The derivative tools have replaced the containing effect of the pr� 1971 Gold-standard (London Gold Pool) and resulted in another form of unfree Gold. Lucky dollar ! For this reason the natural and intuitive Gold Accumulation (by the public)against the permanent currency depreciation has been softly and progressively murdered (20 years from 1981 ATH of POG).
Is this intuitive selfdefense Gold-reaction still operative ? Yes, but very subdued / tempered. What will awaken this old adjusting reflex ? A combination of factors enhanced by strong price signals and a progressive RE-understanding of Gold's VALUE. It is against this combination of evolving fundamentals and price behavior that I base my Technical Interpretations. And imvvvvho, it looks GREAT for the time being ! And this ongoing process can NOT be aborted anymore. RE-Valued Gold in the future will not change man's (general public) behavior. Once VOG is set completely FREE, other abuses and falsifications will re-appear and create other discrepancies (Cycles).

Please note that this only by intuition and I don't have lead heavy evidence for it. Just trying to get under the skin of these Big Gold Holders (Giants) and guess how they feel and act with their 12 Kg bars. This must certainly be completely different than us with our fists of coins.
And let us not forget that there must be fundamentally different Giants (oil/non oil). Once Official Goldreserves abandon their extended management (falsification) of the floating currency circus...they will certainly encourage the full REVALUATION of ALL Gold to its true proportions!
Matter of abandon the confetti ship, Gold first and Hyperinflation rocketing together with Gold's momentum.
It will not NOT stop at 600$ !!! Because a stop at 600$ is evidence of the previous cycle/wave system re-installed ! No way ! This time it is different from the past 30 years and analog to 5.000 years of Gold history.

YGM (04/24/02; 16:45:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74237)
This Link is Relative to my Previous one.....
http://freedom.org

Quote:

F.A. Harper, who said: "the man who knows what freedom means will find a way to be free."

YGM (04/24/02; 16:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 74236)
Timeline To Global Governance.......
http://www.sovereignty.net/timeline.html
A link for those so inclined to know the history to date of what the elder Bush and other high profile people such as Walter Cronkite, Kissinger etc call 'One World Gov' or the much dreaded NWO......If you don't like hearing about it don't go there...Quite simple really. We all have choices & the right of self expression here, especially when posting links that will & do relate to our topic of Gold ownership.

"GO GATA" "GO GOLD & GO PHYSICAL"

"MY BEST @ HIPPLEBECK" in your search for answers. It's a tough trail. I know I'm still on it & the end seems no closer......Respectfully......YGM.

TownCrier (04/24/02; 15:49:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 74235)
HEADLINE: Dollar falls as market eyes investment shift
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/24/rtr581515.html
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar buckled to three-month lows against the euro and the Swiss franc and set a one-month trough against the yen Wednesday as investors reconsidered the once-unrivalled lure of U.S. assets.

The dollar has been under broad pressure this month, amid fears that a global economic recovery will prompt international investors to reconsider their love-affair with U.S. assets, and look elsewhere for better returns.
----------

John Hazelton, director forex at PNC Bank, alludes to the future threat everpresent from our dollar "overhang": "There's no huge demand to sell it off, but people are long dollars around the world, they've been buying for so many years," he said.

In a world awash in currencies, gold ownership puts you on a firm and independent footing.

R.

CoBra(too) (04/24/02; 15:24:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74234)
No Topic - Actually ....
Scanning the last century - rapidly - the old hegemon Europe had self destructed in two WW's. The former colonials stepped in and filled the vacuuum - as well building up the new $ - Hegemon.

And at the end of the 'cold war' an unchallenged and only global "Superpower" resulted. Including the $-Hegemony, supremacy of the also unchallenged printing press - as the sole safe haven ideology, by simultaneously degrading the only challenge - gold as money. Or even worse - degrading any real asset in terms of the Superpower's prowess to price finding truism's - or better intrigues via derivatives, hiding under the oblique risk management boutique. A li'l old shop, having outmaneuvred the global GDP manifold!

... While it's true - the US technological armory is not to be smitten in the forseeable future - and 911 helped the status of the US and - Russia, as Putin was fast to see the win-win situation - the EU is on no basis to dispute the hegemony ... alas, and true, only by their economy and the euro.

Though not disputing the global political clout, the economical equation is starting to equalize the hegemon. And even if the political will is not yet standardized ... the EU convent and the will to establish a legal, i.e. democratically legitimized Constitution for the EU - where-ever it may end to the East - may at some day present a challenge to the US of A.

That's not to say, that the EU does not accept the hegemon, though in the longer range every hegemon has found its selfdestructing demon.

As long has the hegemon is still capable of reigning in its
serfs - hyperinflation will not happen. The question remains - for how long can the hegemon keep up the delusion?- In view of what is destroying the illusion - on a daily basis - not Argentina, nor Enron ... the growing numbers of personal defaults ... IMHO ...

cb2 - and much more to add - sad - gettin' late - more tomorrow - though maybe 'nough said!

Max Rabbitz (04/24/02; 15:20:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 74233)
Pizz and Neer-do-well on Bush
If true I suspect that Bush simply mis-spoke...again. He probably meant to say "my administration" not "my government." He certainly knows he's not getting his way with ANWAR, court appointments and lots more. Bush is not alone in sloppy wording. Remember the press saying there was a "shadow government" when what was described was just part of the executive branch of government? If I have to choose I'd prefer mis-speaking to a slick wordsmith. George is going to miss that lady advisor of his but I sympathize with her. I wouldn't want to live anywhere near D.C. at this time. What percentage of trucks crossing the Mexican border are checked? 5%? Probably the same for Canada. Remember that the INS gave a student visa to Mohamed Ata 3 months after 911. Time for more gold.

Pizz (04/24/02; 15:00:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 74232)
luckypierre
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020423/economy_treasury_terror_1.html
PM reporting requirements as part of terrorist money laundering precautions.

I'm having a hard time buying this in the name of terrorists. We already have some pretty good cash laundering laws already for cash transactions in excess of 10,000 which was done to curb drug dealing. Hasn't worked for drugs, why will it work for terror?

Must have another use in mind - but if I ever have to cash in my PM's, tax evasion or withholding won't be my first concern, (or 100th for that matter).

Pizz

slingshot (04/24/02; 14:59:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74231)
Thought Provoking Posts.
Which one buys more Gold?
Yepper , there is one heck of a full moon. The forum is now divided into two camps. On one side TEOTWAWKI and on the other we are in for some hard bumps. If you think the end is near your extreme. If you do not, you have your head in the sand. So who buys more gold? Bunker mentality or ostrich
hide and go seek? Now I'm a few degrees off center and with all the things happenning in the world I would say that Bunkers buy more gold at this time. Just because they seem to buy everything.
Slingshot

Simply Me (04/24/02; 14:25:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74230)
@Sierra Madre RE:(04/24/02; 12:31:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74223)
Sierra Madre:"Today I learn that all Argentina is up for sale. Want to buy bargains? Antiques? Libraries? Mansions? Just fly down and take your pick, pay into a Miami bank account. Carpetbagging, it is called. Not my style, but some can pick up beautiful and valuable things for a little money, which is desperately needed by Argentinians right now."

My response: Don't bother with the antiques and libraries. Watch who's buying commodities and utilities...electric plants or service lines, water and gas pipelines, mines, etc. They want the gov't and the people by "the short hairs".

Enjoy your thought provoking posts,
Simply

neer-do-well (04/24/02; 14:19:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 74229)
pizz
Yeah I caught the "my government" remark. Has a different meaning when he says it or I says it.

I think he was forced to fire her, she probably gave him some of that tough talk to the Israels, sort of miss-read the tea leaves. He will be lost without her, his confidence is on it's way to Texas.

Prince Abdulall, ahem, is the kind of guy George can relate to, somebody with princely clout, his political ideal. Trouble is its across the table from him. I wonder if Chenny will be able to blunt what the prince came here to say? NO WAR with Iraq most likely.

The end game discussed here yesterday had some interesting points. I wrote a senario very much like it 10 years ago. Doing the same thing today I'd be much less optomistic. The American people are even dumber now and so self-rightous, when the SHTF they will regress to the 7 year old level. They don't question themselves, nor anything else of substance.

Aristotle (04/24/02; 14:04:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 74228)
Chatting with Belgian
Did you see Black Blade's #74221 Reuters report? Of special interest was this part of it.

---START---
``As soon as the number came out we had buying in the gold market,'' said one floor broker. ``We had selling in the copper market and buying in the gold market for who knows what reason.''
----END----

Not very enlightening by itself, but it got me thinking in more general terms, and I wanted your thoughts -- especially after your excellent commentary on hyperinflation as the socially preferred expedient (to deflation) to work out monetary excesses.

My thinking is that people, in general, are far smarter than discussion groups tend to give them credit for, and that these same people -- in both their professional and personal capacities -- will tend to act in such a way that most benefits their future self interest.

To that end, what we may take for granted here as some sort of "elite knowledge" regarding the benefits of Gold ownership -- as things, shall we say, heat up -- may not be so unique to a small group of Goldbugs (sorry for the term) after all. Just as a Goldbug (sorry) will justifiably contemplate selling his various assets, selling his labor, and selling his money for the purchase of Gold, as the economic writing on the wall gets written bigger and bolder for all to see, it really shouldn't surprise us to see similar activity from the (smart and self-interested) public at large. Ahead of the approaching storm it doesn't take long to evaluate ones holdings of excess or idle assets (certain land, copper, silver, contracts, stocks, bonds, cash, grains, inventory whatever) with an eye toward selling them in order to buy the one thing that will best help them come through these hot hyperinflationary winds seen building now on the horizon.

Here's an interesting thought. If people are looking at a generalized price index as their windspeed indicator (aerometer???) to mark the storm's arrival, couldn't the advanced selling pressure of real things give a temporary false signal of calm as prices come under selling pressure even as the torrents of invisible currency begin to swirl and mount? Even COMEX Gold contracts would be sold! Price discovery being what it is for Gold, only the rising premium per ounce on the delivered goods would send accurate signals of the arrival of the storm's first wave.

Building on the previous paragraph, there's a facet I'd like your opinion on (or Miner49er, or Mr. Gresham, or John Doe, etc etc). Would it be possible for a society to lessen the real economic damage of a hyperinflationary workout by channeling all practical monies through the course of the storm into Gold? As current production, idle assets (both real and finanancial) and excess inventories are sold off in the rush for Gold, the price of Gold could truly run to the stars even as the price levels of other goods and services are kept, generally speaking, to modest historical levels albeit with the all the necessary relative pricing adjustments and shifts in asset ownership to facilitate the overall financial reckoning imperative for the times.

The process and resulting price adjustments would result in a more proper perception of Gold's value based merely on its physical merits as a scarce resource -- an asset that no savings-minded person should be without. Gone forever would be the illusion that bullion banking deposits and their body of derivative contracts were in any way akin to the real thing.

If, indeed, the aggregate economic dislocations and adjustments resulting from a hyperinflationary workout could be kept minimal (to the fullest extent PRACTICABLE) through a channeling of the hypermonetary hyperenergy into Gold as a means to absorb the impact, wouldn't it be conceivable that a forward-thinking group of economic advisors or central bankers would in early warnings counsel precisely this approach so that the political leaders of their threatened society could take steps to engender such an inevitable workout -- directed into Gold?

It seems to me from all the signs coming in that we're "on the road" like it or not. And IIIIIIII LIKE IT!

Thanks for your time and thoughts.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Solomon Weaver (04/24/02; 14:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74227)
Reuters noticing gold.
String of uncertainties put shine back in golds
April 24, 2002 3:46:00 PM ET

By Frank Pingue

TORONTO, April 24 (Reuters) - North American gold shares were in strong demand on Wednesday as bullion prices firmed on concerns over Middle East jitters and Japan's faltering economy.

Analysts said gold prices are well placed to rise this year, encouraged by investors' desire to shelter from global political and economic uncertainties.

"The fact that golds react to news reinforces the fact that there is a safe haven in golds and that is why we're seeing equities and bullion perform so well," said Barry Cooper, an analyst with CIBC Wood Gundy Inc.

"Also, people have been looking for alternative investments and, since gold has been out of favor for so long, they feel it is due for a turnaround."

Tensions in the Middle East following Israel's incursion into the West Bank and U.S. warnings about military action against Iraq have prompted investors to look to gold to diversify their portfolios.

Japan is dealing with an ongoing recession, but a Reuters poll of 28 economists feel an uneven recovery lies ahead, driven almost entirely by exports and overshadowed by rising unemployment.

Analysts are also content with a wave of consolidation in the gold mining industry which they say is resulting in the closing of inefficient mines in favor of high-grade and high-margin operations.

On the Toronto Stock Exchange, home to some of the world's largest gold miners, the gold and precious minerals index was ahead 1.49 percent on Wednesday afternoon.

So far in 2002, Canadian gold stocks have gained 27 percent.

Shares of Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) were higher on Wednesday as investors applauded the company's ability to produce improved earnings on rising gold prices and strong cost controls even though its production levels fell.

The shares rose 57 Canadian cents, or 3 percent, to C$19.67 on the TSE and were up 28 cents, or 2.3 percent at $12.52 in New York.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) shares trekked higher one day after the world's second-biggest gold producer said a $6 million investment in a remote property high in the mountains of Peru had netted it one of its most significant gold discoveries of the past decade.

Shares of Barrick rose 44 Canadian cents, or 1.5 percent, to C$30.48 in Toronto, and climbed 43 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $19.43 in New York.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the world's biggest gold company, was up 3 cents at $29.27 in New York.

On the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, the benchmark XAU North American gold and silver mining index , rose 0.8 percent to 74.31, its highest level since October 1999.

The XAU index is up about 37 percent in 2002, compared with a 1 percent gain in the Dow Jones industrial average .

($1=$1.57 Canadian) REUTERS

� 2002 Reuters

Black Blade (04/24/02; 13:26:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74226)
Markets in the Red

The market indices are negative, but expect a last half hour push to force the indices into the black.

Oil and NG are lower. Oil inventories are down but gasoline inventories rose. NG is lower on a very strong rise in inventory (+69 bcf)in spite of lower production. It appears that the economic environment across the landscape is crashing. It appears that business across America is very bad and energy supply is growing due to a severe economic recession. Gold will have to rise on such a dismal economic prognosis.

- Black Blade

Pippin (04/24/02; 13:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74225)
Interesting source of charts and data
http://www.topline-charts.com/
Just an interesting link I wanted to share with the Forum.

luckypierre (04/24/02; 12:34:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74224)
Reporting Laws
Pizz, you mentioned new reporting laws in one of your posts. I haven't seen any reference to them elsewhere, and would like some more detail. Can you give us a summary of them?

Luckypierre

Sierra Madre (04/24/02; 12:31:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74223)
Belgian: great message, No. 74219!

Yours is a very perceptive post, clear and reflective of reality. Both deflation and inflation (hyperinflation) are painful but perhaps the least painful is hyperinflation. At least we get to go to the poorhouse in a car, on the last gallon in the tank.

You wrote: "Everybody will be occupied
with the different aspects of his own survival and uncertain future (unemployment and debt). A lot of imaginary prosperity
must be wiped out. Fortunes and savings will be lost and other fortunes will be made (The Wheel)."

You are quite right about this. When things get real, real bad, and people don't know where the next meal is coming from, they become very docile. They don't riot at all. They are scared and worried and don't have time to go to riots, nor the energy. They will do what they are told in return for just about anything to live on. This has been MY EXPERIENCE, I am not talking about theory.

Gold has gone in Mexico, where I live, from $510 pesos for a $50 peso goldpiece (about 1.2 oz) to some $3,600,000 pesos for the same piece. Nobody seems to notice or care about this. Great bankers of yesterday are nobodys today. Fact!! As you say, "the wheel turns".

Today I learn that all Argentina is up for sale. Want to buy bargains? Antiques? Libraries? Mansions? Just fly down and take your pick, pay into a Miami bank account. Carpetbagging, it is called. Not my style, but some can pick up beautiful and valuable things for a little money, which is desperately needed by Argentinians right now.

Sierra

Pizz (04/24/02; 11:52:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74222)
Darkhorse
Thanks for the compliment. Didn't think my writing was that transparent. I was a poor country boy, moved to the city, worked my but off blue collar and put myself thru college nights during my 30's. (working on my masters in economics and international finance right here at USA Gold (smile).

I still highly recommend to those so motivated to go back to school at any age. You have to wade thru a lot of extraneous BS, since most teachers don't have a clue how the real world works, but if you have a work backround, especially in a field you're studying, you'll know what to learn and what to ignore and you'll retain a lot more.

Worked for me, but the downside is you don't make too many friends with knowledge and opinions contrary to the establishment. Never was much of a social animal anyway - would prefer to be Trapper's next door neighbor (about a day's walk away).

The best thing about this forum is the synergy of all the posters, their sources, and what we pick up and interpret. There's enough clues out there to give us a bit of a head start on the rest of the world. Black Blades comment regarding economists and last years recession which is in the process of being reevaluated is a prime example. We already pretty much know.

Pizz

Black Blade (04/24/02; 11:39:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74221)
NY gold pops higher after econ data, buyers in wings
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020424/markets_precious_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - COMEX gold stretched its gains early Wednesday, with an extra pop in prices after weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods numbers, while floor buzzed about buy orders building up near the recent high. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 0.6 percent in March but were revised up to a 2.7 percent rise in February from a previously report 1.8 percent increase.

``As soon as the number came out we had buying in the gold market,'' said one floor broker. ``We had selling in the copper market and buying in the gold market for who knows what reason. I think it had more to do with the revision of last month.''

In its Gold Survey 2002 released Wednesday, GFMS also said gold miners are expected to reduce their hedge books in the coming months, offering a potential support to world gold prices. Prices first cracked the important $300 level in February, reaching a two-year high helped by major gold producers such as AngloGold aggressively unwinding their hedge books. GFMS estimated that hedging fell for a second consecutive year in 2001, generating a significant 147 tonnes of physical demand, with the fall mainly in the fourth quarter of last year.

Black Blade: As hedges are unwound the demand side increases. Even mega-hedgers Barrick and Placer Dome can't stem this tide of rising demand.

Brett Woods (04/24/02; 11:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74220)
Gold Argentina 5 Pesos - the Argentino

Thank you MK. Thank you Gandalf the White. And thank you Sir Slingshot, Sir Waverider, and Sir Boilermaker for your support. I am thrilled to have the chance to own a coin of this age, rarity, and quality. I plan to keep it safe and keep it close.

Argentino!!!!!

whew!

Belgian (04/24/02; 11:28:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 74219)
Crystal Ball
The * nearby * future outcome of 30 years fundamental mismatch is simply *** HYPERINFLATION ***. Nothing else but hyperinflation and there is no need to prognosticate what this overwhelming effect will bring with it. Hyperinflation is the expression / surfacing of such a long period of Permanent Currency Depreciation. Impossible to foresee what measures will be taken...because no one has the slightiest idea of how HYPER this inflation will be. It has been underestimated (managed) for already more than 30 years.
Hyperinflation (yes, HYPER) will be the outcome (solution) for Argentina. Destructive of nature and setting things on the right track again after having adjusted for all tangibles and valuables. All anomalies (artificialities) must be wiped out with that devastating hyperinflation.
The restart will take place after all debt the bulk of speculation has been erased and written off. Than we can go back with real economics and *natural* expansion.

The fact that central banks (Welteke) and institutions (IMF) even dare to suggest that their ultimate reserve should be used (abused) to save us from disaster is mega-significant on itself. Complete desperation. Selling the farm (gold) to keep cattle (currency) alive ? Coming hyperinflation will be swift and no goldsales are going to prevent the unavoidable healing process. There is not enough sand (gold) to hold the dike from breaking. The debtberg ice will melt faster than the evaporation of the water.

Keeping the banks open or closed will have the same effect.
Worthless paper in or out of the bank. Argentina tries to prevent currency printing mania by artificially making confetti scarse. The dollarblock does the same with the VOG. Lock Gold and its Value up, out of sight and unfree !
Force everyone to keep on moving for intrinsically worthless paper.

Hyperinflation is a natural process and the path of least resistance for pulling everything on the right track again.
This Hyper-Storm must have its way and as soon as the wrecks are stranded, life starts again with some major changes, unknown at present. Simply because we have no idea of the storm survivers and their condition. Will it be a new dollar or the euro who will be the fittest ? How much of the productive economical apparatus will have survived the debt reckoning ? And who lied about being able to swim ?

During this process of Hyperinflation nobody will care about VOG rising into the thousands. Everybody will be occupied with the different aspects of his own survival and uncertain future (unemployment and debt). A lot of imaginary prosperity must be wiped out. Fortunes and savings will be lost and other fortunes will be made (The Wheel).

There is nothing as simple as Hyperinflation ! It is a natural resultant of false deflation not having the opportunity to run its full course. Deflation is allowing all BAD debt to default, and this is and will not be the case. Therefore the only natural and unwanted reaction is Hyperinflation less devastating than disciplinairy deflation (default). The enormous excesses of confetti can only burn with massive depreviation. Deflation is NOT currency destructive, on the contrary ! It is not the value of your indebted house that is increasing...it is the artificial strength of the currency given for your house that gives the notion of value, whilts you get unemployed due to default. Better to keep your job and be paid with worthless, depreciating money and keeping your house rising in price whilst keeping the same value. In deflation / default / unemployment...everything dies by suffocation and comes to a virtual standstill. Hyperinflation has the advantage that things keep on moving and selective destruction will take place.

GOLD...don't hesitate too long anymore !

darkhorse (04/24/02; 11:23:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74218)
@ Pizz, your 74212
There are some posts that I almost automatically pass by, then there are those that get me to lean a little closer to the screen (due to interest, not just because my eyes are getting older). :) Your posts get the latter response because I noticed you write at a grass roots level with a financial/economic background...I doubt if there are many of your type around. Your last statement of "PM's are the best investment out there right now and our goverment just confirmed it with the new reporting laws. They've even given us a short window for unreported buying." made my day! You put into words what I'd been hoping to hear from somebody other than that little voice in the back of my head. Just confirms my beliefs that most all non-essential buying needs to be put off until a better position in PM's is gained for future use. Thanx! (Now, if I could just get an idea of that future into the wifes head, buying would be a lot easier) :)

Black Blade (04/24/02; 11:19:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74217)
Saudi troops mass on border
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020423/ap_wo_en_ge/saudi_israel_1&printer=1
Saudi troops mass on border with Jordan following reports of Israeli military buildup

Snippit:

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia has sent eight brigades to its border with Jordan after receiving intelligence reports that Israel was massing troops along the Jordanian border, Saudi officials said Tuesday.

Black Blade: A lot of tension in the ME.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 11:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 74216)
Data suggest recession delivered blow to incomes
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/114/business/Data_suggest_recession_delivered_blow_to_incomes+.shtml

Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Last year's recession, currently viewed as the mildest in US history, may not have been so mild after all, some private economists said after looking at new government data yesterday. A state-by-state report released by the Commerce Department showed that Americans' incomes for all of 2001 were considerably smaller than the government had previously estimated in another report on the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health.

''It sounds to me that they are going to have to revise away a lot of last year's growth, and it will turn out that the recession was indeed a recession and was more severe than previously thought,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

Black Blade: No kidding. These rocket scientists are just figuring this out. Strip away the statistical massage from the BLS and the picture looks even worse.

Pizz (04/24/02; 11:04:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74215)
Karen Hughes
Anyone else catch Bush's comment yesterday regarding the Hughes departure? He used the term "my government" rather than "our government". Little bit too pompous for even my taste.

Is Hughes gettin out of Dodge before the gunfight?

Pizz

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (04/24/02; 11:02:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 74214)
NGS graded MS61 $10 Liberties (assorted 1800's), also uncirculated $20's from 1877
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be...

...Priceless.

Call Centennial for Arrangements or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115

YGM (04/24/02; 10:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 74213)
Forbes Sees Canada Using New Currency...
http://www.nationalpost.com/search/story.html?f=/stories/20020420/699336.html&qs=steve%20forbes%20and%20common%20currency
He predicts a common $ across N America.....

Well given the fact it takes about $1.50 to buy a US $ I'd say Canadians should trade all their Can bucks for Gold here at CPM and at least regain the missed dollar parity if/when this happens. I am jealous of the US $ buying power in Gold vs Canadian, but then I benefited greatly when mining Gold and spending here in Canada....Win some, lose some....Gold---Get some!

Pizz (04/24/02; 10:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 74212)
Senarios
Since we've been priviledged to see one poster's vision of the future, thought I'd venture one of my own. Comments and critisizms welcome.

One major rule of business is that the only way you have total control is to have an iron grasp on the money. Nothing else works. Same rule can be applied to nation states.

The United States will protect the banks and the financial markets right to the end. We may have a systemic, rolling banking failure in the works right now. It will hit the U.S. last, but as it spreads thru Japan, it will be hard to surpress the news, and the panic will gain speed.

How will they stop bank runs, cash hording, and financial market collapses?

Call the currency, and at the same time limit new cash to a set amount. This effectively kills the capital now behind the underground economy, they will not follow in Russia's footsteps. (Black markets will develop, but from scratch.) We have rumors the currency has been printed (second rumor of same cash in ten years or so, and I'm leaning towards believing it.)

At the same time they will drastically limit capital outflows from the banks to foreign accounts. Legitimate international business transactions will be closely monitored and HEAVY penalties for violators. Freezing foreign assets (our enemies)and limiting outflows will put a floor under the markets, albeit much, much lower (realistic valuations based.)

Our current dollar and debt markets will have collapsed, and selective international debt will be refuted, and balance paid at cents on the old dollar (it's true value).

Domestic stock market will be down fairly dramatically, but not unmanageable due to the fact that reasonably valued, viable stocks will be as much in demand (maybe more) as bank credits. Banks will be recapitalized by the government, and old dollar debt will be converted to new dollar.

Gold? Controlled and taxed, normally as with any asset (they're starting). The government will not confiscate, still way too little out there to make it cost justifiable, it's extremely high valuation (put your own number in) will preclude too much black market and barter use, since there will not be an overabundance of new cash in circulation. Silver would more than likely be the black market currency of choice, but even it's valuation will be high enough to limit day to day use.

One man's opinion if things get real messy, and subject to change as situations develop. Tough times ahead, but not armeggeddon.

PM's are the best investment out there right now and our goverment just confirmed it with the new reporting laws. They've even given us a short window for unreported buying.

Pizz

Mr Gresham (04/24/02; 10:27:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74211)
Econoclast: Mental Gymnastics
Good thoughts. When it's history, people dismiss it: "Oh, that was back then." But when it's happening right now, it's "Oh, that's in Argentina / Japan / Russia / Indonesia."

The closer it gets to themselves, the more difficult it gets to tell themselves a new story -- and since they haven't protected themselves, and their children, with real actions, all they have left is: a new story.

Sure, it feels crazy living in a "doomer story", because the official story is the Pollyanna "don't worry be happy we'll take care of you" story. That works for those who live off the masses.

Actually, evolution built in a portion of the "doomer story". Most people lived only one bad growing season, or bad hunting season, away from starvation. Thus, methods of saving were necessary, and enhanced survival value of both individuals and groups. And that's really all we're about here, at least economically: Saving.

In a land where it has been decreed "There shall be no more rainy days," saving for a rainy day is quite frowned upon, and thought to be in bad taste. Best done quietly, and privately.

Where did I read that most of the elderly in Kazhakstan, or a nearby country, had starved off during the 90s? That happened during our right-now lifetimes, too. Guess those people just didn't care enough to feed them? Or maybe they just had to choose between saving the children and saving the elderly?

It all works quite well, really, until it doesn't.

YGM (04/24/02; 09:47:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74210)
Financial News...
Daily Reckoning E-Mail.
Eric Fry on Wall Street...

- Another down day on Wall Street, as more grim news
from the telecom sector ushered stocks lower. The Dow
lost 47 points to close at 10,089, while the Nasdaq
dropped 28 to 1,730. Former telco darling Williams
Communications - following a well-trodden path - filed
for bankruptcy protection yesterday. Meanwhile, the
shares of Ericsson and Worldcom both continued their
death spirals. So far this week, Worldcom has lost about
45% of its remaining market capitalization.

- The devastating two-year bear market in tech and
telecom shows no signs of abating, and yet many of the
analysts who promoted these former high-flyers have
sailed through the devastation relatively
unscathed...until now.

- If Wall Street analysts' careers were traded like
stocks, Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget's career
would have to be downgraded immediately to a "Sell." At
best, it is a "Market Underperform."

- That's because the New York Attorney General Eliot
Spitzer has discovered incriminating internal e-mails
from the superstar Internet analyst in which he trashed
the very same stocks he was recommending in his
"research" reports.

- In one email, written on October 10, 2000, Blodget
described the Internet company 24/7 Media as "a piece of
shit," even though he was publicly recommending the
stock as a "short-term accumulate and long-term
accumulate."

- In effect, Blodget seemed to have established a dual
rating system - one for the gullible public and one for
his buddies.

- Back in the go-go days of October 2000, Blodget
probably thought himself quite clever for encouraging
investors to buy stock in a company that he privately
knew to be a piece of you-know-what. But in the post-
Enron days of April 2002, Blodget's behavior appears to
some folks to have been more criminal than clever.

- The news of Henry Blodget's scandalous emails broke a
few days ago. But it came to light for the first time
yesterday that the Justice Department has taken an
interest in the troubling disparity between the public
Henry and the private Henry.

- Michael Chertoff, the head of the Department's
criminal division, told Bloomberg News that criminal
charges are possible if investigators find that research
analysts tilted their "buy" and "hold" recommendations
to help their firms win investment-banking business. Do
we really need an investigation to answer that question?

- Traditionally, the SEC would be the government agency
responsible for investigating alleged wrongdoings by
Wall Street analysts - not the New York Attorney General
and certainly not the Justice Department.

- But now that the government's big guns have strolled
into the Corruption Corral, Henry Blodget's largest
concern might no longer be whether his annual bonus will
be $2 million or $5 million. Instead, he might find
himself worrying about things like conjugal visits and
getting enough clean pairs of socks.

- Yesterday, I attended the "Grant's Spring Investment
Conference." Given the bearish outlook of most of the
speakers, the "Spring DIS-Investment Conference" might
have been a more appropriate title. Of the eight
presenters at the conference, only one expressed a
bullish thought...and that was about gold.

- In short, it was a vintage Grant's affair, where bears
are welcomed and bulls are tolerated.

- Kicking off the bearish barrage, Charles Peabody, the
contrarian-minded banking analyst at Ventana Capital,
argued that J.P. Morgan Chase might be forced to cut its
dividend before the end of the year and that, therefore,
"the stock might fall into the low 20s."

- Next up, Akio Mikuni, founder of Japan's first
independent bond rating agency, described the unpleasant
string of events that might cause Japanese government
bond yields to skyrocket. Mikuni explained that the bad-
loan situation in Japan remains a very big problem. As
he put it facetiously, "In Japan, charity begins at the
banks."

- Later in the day, James Bianco, president of the
fixed-income research firm that bears his name, took the
podium to explain why the high-growth days at Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac are numbered. He also cautioned that
these two "government-sponsored hedge funds" are much
more vulnerable to rapid changes in interest rates than
most investors appreciate.

- Pierre Lassonde, co-CEO of Newmont Mining, delivered
the lone bullish presentation of the conference.
Predictably, he was bullish about gold...very bullish.
The basis of his conviction is a simple demand and
supply analysis: Investment demand for gold is picking
up from Tokyo to Toledo. Meanwhile, the annual supply of
newly mined gold will be falling steadily over the next
few years.

- Based on the numbers, therefore, Lassonde believes the
yellow metal has entered a new bull phase. (For more,
see: A New Bull Market in Gold)
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=2017

- Unfortunately, Lassonde was the only presenter to hand
out a glossy, four-color outline - the kind of pricey,
high-sheen document that a "Global Crossing" or a
"Corning" might have passed around to the attendees of a
high-tech conference in February of 2000.

- As a rule, value investors don't like to see glossy
handouts. That's because, as a rule, bona fide early
bull-market stories are told in black and white...if
they are told at all.

******

YGM (04/24/02; 09:12:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74209)
Main Index Page....
http://www.getusout.org/un/index.htm
I'll get back to my corner of the room now.

YGM (04/24/02; 08:53:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 74208)
The UN Wants to Take Your Land......
http://www.getusout.org/property/index.htm
"AND" a hell of alot more!

YGM (04/24/02; 08:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74207)
UN Land Grab Plot....Scary or Silly?
http://www.indiana.edu/~pubpol/V600media8.html
Chicago Tribune...Apr. 5/98

Knallgold (04/24/02; 08:36:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74206)
Humour
On the first day of the new school year in Houston, the teacher decided to get to know the kids by asking them to tell their name and what their father does for a living.

The first little girl says: "My name is Mary and my daddy is a postman."
"That's great," says the teacher.

Next a little boy says: "I'm Andy and my Dad is a mechanic."
"Wonderful!" says the teacher.
Then the next kid says: "My name is Jimmy and my father is a striptease dancer in a cabaret for gay men."

The teacher gasps in horror and disbelief and quickly decides to stop this and immediately starts in to math. Later at recess, she pulls Jimmy to the side and privately asks him if it was really true that his Daddy dances nude in a gay bar. He blushes, looks around, and says "No, my Dad is an auditor for Arthur Andersen but I was just too embarrassed to say so."

YGM (04/24/02; 08:35:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 74205)
Land Grab By Gov't.....
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/4/23/135321.shtml
Supreme Court Supports Land Grabs.........

Bush White House Backs Land Grabs.........

**Why have many thousands of dollars invested in a piece of land so as to become a caretaker for Federal Gov't or the UN as per their special resolution # -------. It makes more sense to long term lease while awaiting iminent transitions and especially as the real estate bubble expands. When the bubble pops and some form of transition has taken place then and only then will I personally purchase land again.
The less I have to do with the #@%^! system the better I like it! Hidden assets are much more durable and so are those that hold them. IMHO......YGM.

Econoclast (04/24/02; 08:32:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74204)
Thanks to the Castle, Congrats to all the entrants and Brett Woods
This Argemtinian situation is very disconcerting to me because it is not history that our grandparents can barely remember. It is happening right now! Today! With current leaders (?) and banking corporations and structures.
Yet no one (except us) seems interested.
Is opium engineered into our food supply or what?
I just don't get why people here want to keep their heads in the sand.

Wake up America! The government will not save or protect you! You must take that responsibility for yourself and know that "they" are who you need protection from!

And to top it off, now I guess there's some kind of time limit before I have to start giving my SSN to buy gold? But I thought it was a commodity? If it is a barbarous and worthless relic, why is it treated differently than wheat?

I am really coming to believe that when "they" come knocking on the door (before they kick it in) 99.999% of Americans will still think nothing of it and at that point simply think "I must have done something wrong, for my beloved government to come here".

Do I need shock treatment to fit in with the current groupthink of this country?

O.K., I'm going off, I'll stop.
I guess it's now;
Gold--get you some before it's too late.

USAGOLD Market Commentary (04/24/02; 08:08:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 74203)
Gold Back to Two Year Highs; World Woes Could Force Gold through $305 Barrier
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Hipplebeck (04/24/02; 08:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74202)
Gold and Oil
will take off big time if Abdullah doesn't get some satisfaction from his meeting with Bush. He is making up for all shortages right now, but I sure don't expect that to last unless he gets some respect from the US.
tick tock tick tock

Hipplebeck (04/24/02; 07:36:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74201)
Next week
Is going to be very very interesting. Saudi Abdullah coming to Texas on Thursday with an Arab mandate outlining their idea of a just settlement in Isreal. Sharon is not going to give up the settlements, much less East Jerusalem. Sharon has only one way out as far as I can see, and that is to make sure the war is escalated. He has got to get the US against all Arabs. The US must decide. Bushies are trying to play both sides, and that always ends up with both sides hating you.
The fuse is lit, the clock is ticking.
Just like in the movies. I can hardly stand the suspense.

LeSin (04/24/02; 07:28:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74200)
Gulf States View of ME Situation - OCCUPATION Can Make One Irritable, Yes
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/print.asp?ArticleID=48669

� �
Occupation root cause of violence
Dubai | By Bassam Za'za' | 23/04/2002
�

Dr. Graham E. Fuller
�The main reason for the violence in the Middle East is the occupation, said a leading political consultant yesterday.

Dr Graham E. Fuller, an analyst in Muslim World Geopolitic Islamic Issues, told a press conference at the Dubai Press Club: "All European Foreign Ministers and the European community as a whole have called for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and that is exactly what should be done.

I believe that the main cause for the continuous escalating violence in the Middle East is the occupation itself. The Palestinians won't return to negotiating the peace process unless Israel withdraws from their lands.

"The Jewish lobby inside the American Congress exerts a lot of pressure on the Bush Administration especially when it comes to the U.S. policy in the Middle East. That is why we see that the administration is highly supportive of Sharon and his government in their brutal policy against the Palestinians.

The closest example is the right wing extremists who support the Jewish lobby inside the government which is trying to impose political and economic pressure on the administration regarding U.S. policy in the Middle East."

On U.S. President George Bush describing Sharon as a man of peace, Dr Fuller said: "I think Bush chose the wrong words when he called Sharon a man of peace. During the latest escalation in violence, Israel committed brutal massacres, especially in the Jenin refugee camp, and I call upon the UN to conduct a criminal investigation.

"Sharon's policies and tactics failed clearly, and it has made him look a total mess and in a desperate condition in front of his people. Palestinians now feel more humiliated and are more persistent to fight for their just cause.

"Sharon thought that through his artillery he could prevent the Palestinians from retaliating, but now he has clearly failed. He succeeded in encouraging them to become more determined to fight."

The former Vice-Chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA pointed out that the Evangelical Christians in the U.S. (a Protestant extremist group) support the Jewish lobby in the American Administration in its policy on Israel in the Middle East.

"Depending on one's perspective, the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon can be seen either as a success, evidence that a few activists can deal a grievous blow to a superpower in the name of their cause, or as a failure, since the attackers brought on the demise of their state sponsor and more likely of their own organisation while galvanising near global opposition.

"To help the latter lesson triumph, the U.S. will have to move beyond the first phase, which punished those directly responsible for the attacks and address the deeper sources of political violence and terror in the Muslim world today.

"President Bush has repeatedly stressed that the war on terrorism isn't a war on Islam. But by seeking to separate Islam from politics, the West ignores the reality that the two are intricately intertwined across a broad swath of the globe from Northern Africa to South East Asia."

da2g (04/24/02; 07:24:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74199)
Mr Gresham: T-ranslated
Unfortunately Mr. Gresham, the world (nor the price of gold for that matter) has not been the same since The A-Team went to work for the government.

Hipplebeck (04/24/02; 06:26:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 74198)
To Goldfly
So far, I have not sent in the usual quarterly tax payment that I have been doing for years. I am suspending all taxes, because I am not going to have income. That is my main objective right now. I refuse to give these government guys any more money to be used against me. The only way I can find to not give them any tax money is not to have income.

I am doing some work on my own house right now while I think of ways to carry on. I am going to go out to my Mom and Dads house when I am done and paint it for them. Even though I have been living with my "wife" for 16 years, we are not legally married, and we are refinancing the house into her name. She is just not prepared to risk losing it, and I don't blame her one bit. I am taking some money out on this refinancing. I don't know yet whether I will need it, but I don't have to pay taxes on it. I might buy a piece of property somewhere out in the sticks just so I will have a place to pitch a tent if I need to some day. I am not against society, just this gang of criminals who are currently in charge of the US government. I think it is totally ridiculous that they steal half of what we make and then use the money in such corrupt ways. There is only one way to stop them that does not involve armed rebellion, and that is take away their money.

Personally I think this is the path to my own poverty, but I still feel a lot better that I am not going to be paying for the demise of this great country. They have stomped the constitution into nothingness. They think nothing of interferring into the business of other soveriegn nations or bombing people. There is a Nazi regime coming into power, and that is a fact. Any one who doesn't see the fascist beast rearing it's ugly head has their head in the sand. To me it's almost like a nightmare watching what is happening.
If you haven't seen the movie "Swing Kids" go out and rent it. It is about a group of young kids who have a swing music club in Germany just as the Nazis are gaining in power. It's a really good movie with great music and dancing. The pressure is on them to quit that "evil American music" and join the Nazi youth clubs. That is what we are looking at.

To IGWA:

Dude, don't underestimate the power of the masses. History is full of stories about people who have had their heads cut off while attempting to carry out their dreams of world dominance.

CoBra(too) (04/24/02; 05:58:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74197)
@ Canuck Re: IGWA
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/dospassos.cfm?cfid=93093&cftoken=38325355&pid=2163
Havn't seen a more gloomy outlook by a regular contributor
at the Cafe - apologize for making a loan at the Cafe - it's just so fitting with the latest thoughts.

Marke Talke's finding is probably as scary. Thanks George!

Regards cb2

Black Blade (04/24/02; 05:15:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74196)
GE's Long-Term Debt Skyrocketing
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1019581057.html

Snippit:

New York, April 23 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. has a debt problem. That paragon of management? True enough. GE has been taken to the woodshed and forced to reduce its reliance on short-term borrowings -- which had totaled about $100 billion. GE's capitulation to a pair of market enforcers won't be the end of the story. The company is replacing much of its commercial paper, which matures in nine months or less, with longer-term securities. While that will make General Electric's interest costs more predictable, it'll also make them higher. What's more, the new bonds will balloon GE's long-term debt, which was $79.8 billion at the end of 2001. After Enron Corp., General Electric's critics may be no happier with that than they were with high short-term debt.

Black Blade: The rumor is that Moody's will downgrade GE's debt rating soon. Recently GE was denied a $1 Billion credit line. You won't hear this on CNBC (GE is the parent company of CNBC).

Canuck (04/24/02; 05:04:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74195)
How soon they forget re:IGWA
..and on Sept 10 if he had written of planes flying into buildings killing thousands..........

...and prior to dropping atomic bombs on civilian Japanese...

Three months ago there was a debate over nuking Afganistan and/or Iraq.

What do you think will happen, you are going to get a pat on the back for buying gold?

...and when the world runs out of oil, food and water simultaneously in the year....

We talk (many hope) for the devirative meltdown, what then?

Be careful what you hope for.

The average home here is $200,000 and the average home over there is $200, do you think THEY are a little vindictive?

a) I buy gold because I am afraid of the future.
b) I buy silver in case I am wrong in a)
c) I buy guns in case I am wrong in a) and b)

When, and not if, gold wealth replaces paper wealth do you think THEY are going to be complacent about it?

THEY already stole the gold once, do you think that they are not going to do it again?

To be continued.......

Black Blade (04/24/02; 04:58:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 74194)
AOL Seen Posting Big 1st Quarter Loss
AOL Seen Posting Big 1st Quarter Loss On Asset Writedown

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- AOL Time Warner Inc. (TWX ) (AOL) is expected to post one of the biggest quarterly losses in corporate history when it reports first-quarter results Wednesday.

The primary reason for the loss is a mammoth charge of $54 billion to write down the value of media company's goodwill assets, in accordance with a new accounting rule. The writedown, which AOL previously disclosed, reflects the decline in the value of AOL's assets since America Online (NYSE: AOL) 's $147 billion purchase of Time Warner in January 2001.

Black Blade: Old news, but - This is one for the record books! $54 Billion write off!

Black Blade (04/24/02; 04:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74193)
Argentina president in crisis talks
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1947000/1947766.stm

Economic proposals were met by protests

Snippit:

Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde is holding crisis meetings to put together a new cabinet after the resignation of the economy minister and other officials.
Jorge Remes Lenicov - Argentina's fifth economy minister in as many months - stepped down after Congress refused to consider emergency legislation to prevent the banking system from collapsing.

Black Blade: It just gets better all the time.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 04:10:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 74192)
There Is No Future
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1723000/1723711.stm

Snippit:

The poverty you see in the Greater Buenos Aires is incredible. Here too, but there you see more of it, because everyone goes there looking for work and there isn't any. You see huge areas of people who have nothing to eat. In recent years I have seen more and more people scavenging in the rubbish bins. You see whole families doing - parents with young children.

Black Blade: This same scenario will spread throughout much of South America and a similar future awaits Japan. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 03:58:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74191)
'Our dreams have been stolen'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1750000/1750411.stm

Snippit:

In Argentina, post-devaluation prices are rising on everything from bread to electronics, delivering a further blow to consumers. Three residents tell BBC News Online of their hardships.

Black Blade: As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 03:51:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74190)
Argentine economy chief quits
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1945000/1945566.stm

Snippit:

Argentina's government has lost its economy minister, in a crisis which feels like a replay of the serial government collapses of last year.

Black Blade: �Basta! �No M�s! They're dropping like flies.

Topaz (04/24/02; 03:36:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74189)
Gandalph re Moon.
Not from where I'm sitting - Guesstimate Friday eve.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 02:29:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74188)
Gold Deposits of the Carlin Trend
http://www.rgj.com/news/files/2002/04/20/8491.jpg.php

A map of the Carlin Trend Gold deposits. Other noteable trends and districts not shown are the Getchell trend, Walker Lane, and several isolated mines.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 02:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74187)
Nevada Silver
http://www.rgj.com/news/stories/html/2002/04/20/12571.php

Snippit:

In 2001, Nevada � the largest producing state � generated 17.5 million ounces of silver, down slightly from 2000, the sixth year out of the past seven that silver production exceeded 20 million ounces. By comparison, the United States produced 57.6 million ounces of silver in 2001, valued at about $290 million. During the past decade, demand for silver increased 32 percent worldwide, according to the Silver Institute, an association of silver miners, refiners and wholesalers.

Black Blade: Most of Nevada's Silver production is by-product of Gold mining.

Black Blade (04/24/02; 02:18:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74186)
Golden Celebration
http://www.rgj.com/news/stories/html/2002/04/20/12572.php

Note that mega-hedgers ABX and PDG did not far as well as Non-Hedgers NEM, GLG and MDG.

Jin-Yin (4/24/02; 00:58:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 74185)
IGWA
http://www.trufax.org/welcomemsie.html

Heavy stuff but unfortunately much of it rings true in my twisted mind. Coming from that point of view, for what it is worth; 2 cents, you have some valid points to ponder. Because your post is a prognostication, it therefor is open to interpretation and speculation just like our politically correct history. No problem as nothing is written in stone and from the sounds of it you and most everyone else certainly don't know for sure what will happen in that future. Therefor any and all ideas should be welcome and discussed.

If some become upset at your and others� ideas about the future, then that is their problem and only shows lack of understanding and compassion. Whether you are right or wrong is inconsequential as all things are possible. Only a narrow mind would ignore certain facts to suit their needs in order to avert discomfort. This doesn't mean that all who responded negatively to your post are narrow minded or that this future will play out as you see it but at least people are aware that it is a possibility. Certain people do scheme to bring back an order that is not new but a reversion to serfdom and slavery. That is a fact and well documented if anyone wants to research it. Otherwise television is the next best source of information. Read sarcasm here.

This slow boil so to speak happens on a day to day scale over many years to become imperceptible as the changes take place. There is a more important side to this equation that is eternal and permanent but less focused on which helps some see through the soup; spirituality, not new-age clap trap but knowing that we are more than our physical bodies and earthly beliefs. Our spiritual side will last forever, full stop. This is easily dismissed because it is not a tangible like so much other phenomenon that goes on around us unnoticed and ignored. There in lies the paradox that all is not what it seems. Our reality is impermanent and will not last the test of time. It is really an illusion that is so convincing that we take it so seriously like an actor in the big production. Disassociate yourself from the play and become an observer is much more palatable and bearable without having to stick your head in the sand or to take drastic measures.

There is so much more out there that is not discussed but would raise consciousness levels, which is an individual endeavor and will never be dictated, to a degree that we would not have to worry about what you speak of. Will there be a critical mass or will we all destroy much of what generations before us have done or not done to protect our freedoms? Time will tell but as Nomad said, there is something coming down the pike. Being prepared both mentally and physically is a good start because we do live in interesting times.

Will have the chance to visit your neck of the woods soon, East Coast. Look forward to few VBs, Katoomba trails and Jamison Valley views. Not necessarily in that order.

Cheers.

PS. Try this link if you haven't found it in your quest: http://www.trufax.org/welcomemsie.html

Read Robert Monroe's stuff too.

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