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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/24/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Horatio (11/24/01; 23:52:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 65836)
The Great Contraction
The coming EURO will cause billions of Dollars laying around the world as reserves to suddenly want to come home to be exchanged for goods and services.The explosion will require a domestic reduction in credit and a rise in short term rates.The banks will be inundated with foreign dollars and the Fed will have to raise short term rates to attract some of that money to bonds.A credit contraction will be needed to lessen the effects of all that cash coming in.
Prices will be bid up with all the cash coming in,but U.S.
taxpayers with debt will not benefit .They will need credit in order to roll over thier debts and it won't be available.
A domestic crash in buying power will be offset by foreign buying power,but U.S.citizens will be hit by rising prices and less credit available.GET OUT OF DEBT NOW!
Housing may boom in prices from foreign Dollars looking for investments but buying will not be available to citizens because of credit tightening.A two tier Dollar may be tried by the Treasury and a devalueng of internal or external Dollars is possible,but that will be the end of US trade.

Waverider (11/24/01; 23:16:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 65835)
Rugbug
Hope you're feeling as snug as a bug in a rug following the plethora of responses here tonight. It was a great question - I've learned alot too.
BB The Moneychangers will be a good read in Jan. after exams. Haily's wife too - very fortunate - a blessing all the gold in the world can't buy.
Golden dreams all,
Waverider

Horatio (11/24/01; 22:38:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65834)
Bin-Ladin (Muslim version of ELVIS)
Bin-Ladin has left the country (building) and will undoubtably be seen in Somalia ,Yemen,Iraq,Oman and other places where we have a score to settle.Like ELVIS (Please Pardon the comparison)this could go on for years with sightings anywhere that will keep the publics attention.A diversion will be needed to keep the attention off the economy'stock market and a Dollar crash and other economic problems.

megatron (11/24/01; 22:28:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65833)
Waverider
It must be lurking in the financials of PanAmerican,or Apex, if there is any at all. Any I look at only have in-ground assets and no mine so I really could'nt say. Am off to LaBodega now See ya!

Black Blade (11/24/01; 22:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 65832)
GOLD & SILVER POTPOURRI
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/chapman112601.html

Snippit:

If the Newmont, Franco Nevada, Normandy deal is completed you can expect that group will take a second shot at merging with Gold Fields or attempt a deal with Harmony or both. Barrick could also take a shot at Gold Fields, Harmony, Placer, Agnico-Eagle, Goldcorp and Meridian, as could AngloGold. Barrick has covered half their short by absorbing Homestake. They may want to cover the other half. AngloGold is in a tough spot. The trend is toward covering hedges and if they follow that trend they must buy production. We expect AngloGold will make the next merger move.


Black Blade: Good synopsis in this article at GE. The war of the Hedgers vs. the Non-Hedgers is in full swing. This looks to heat up over the coming months as Gold hedges have become a detriment to earnings and shareholder sympathies. The end of the hedgers has come. They must acquire other miners, be acquired, or go tits up. That's about the long and short of it.


Netking (11/24/01; 21:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65831)
Silver Cycles, Crude & bits 'n pieces.
***Gold/Silver Cycles Bottom in 2001(end) & Surge into 2003***

TA studies are interesting & can involve time and/or price action. Using eg W.D.Gann's complex time techniques. (Gann was reported to have himself taken out from the markets the equiv. of half a billion in todays fiat.)

Studies utilising time as opposed to just price action "don't care too much about the here & now" but rather focus on "key dates" as "potential turning points" in the market. The following from the time cycle people is interesting for Ag/Au bugs alike;

".....Gold & Silver should bottom this year (2001) and then see a strong surge in the end of 2001 and the beginning of 2002 (and into 2003). The Secondary Cycles also Bottom in 4Q 2001!...."

It's somewhat interesting that the above coincides with the running out of the physical metal & the US mint needing more on the open market, also throw in energy, technology requirements not to mention war etc and you don't even have to mention the decade++ continuing deficit, mine closures, low stock piles or the leasing & short selling and you've got a ball game anyway buddy which ever way you look at it. All that's left now is the "time" .....

"When "time is up" the market W I L L move, I don't care what manipulation is involved, what the PPT want it to do or don't want it to do, I don't care what the cartel or Govt. have planned, or what the price is doing in terms of over bought or over sold situations . . . . when time is up the market will move, circumstances & scenarios will come into place "right on time".

Be encouraged that the months ahead fit into that window of time when the gold & silver bulls will re-awaken . . . . and then charge. Your faith & intestinal fortitude will be rewarded.

***Crude Oil***
Beginning 11/03/01: "Crude Oil has fulfilled intermediate and longer-term analysis by declining into important cycles on Nov. 5-9th. This perpetuates the 15-week (103--107 calendar day) cycle that has governed the lows in Crude since the major highs of late-2000.

The next important cycle - with the chance to perpetuate the similar sequence between the last 7 highs (stretching back to late-1999 with highs occurring EVERY 15-17 weeks) - occurs in early January 2002…Crude hit and held its weekly HLS signaling that an intermediate low is imminent (1-3 weeks). It attacked its new monthly raw SPS during the first two days of the month - also indicating that a low is unfolding. If Crude holds above 19.40/CLZ, I expect a minimum rally to 23.80 in the ensuing weeks." (All FWIW and not IA)
------------------------------------------------------------
Galearis - Good hunting mate! There are a number of similar markets locally here including an importer of Mexican handcrafted goods & some of their silverware, not sure of Ag purity on some it but it's interesting.

Black Blade (11/24/01; 21:37:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 65830)
Does This Turkey Still Have Legs?
http://biz.yahoo.com/smart/011124/20011124weekrepo.html

Snippit:

But unlike mattresses, stocks have friends in high places at the Federal Reserve, which has responded to the last two financial crises by handing out wads of money to everyone within easy reach. The first time around, in 1998, the giveaway fueled an 18-month bull run. And while history won't necessarily repeat itself, no one wants to crash that party late a second time.

The siren calls from Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch play on that fear. Goldman strategist Abby Joseph Cohen is blunt: ``Fourth-quarter earnings will be exceptionally ugly, but it won't matter to stock prices,'' she writes. ``Most investors expect improved earnings in 2002.''

Cohen's counterpart at Merrill, Christine Callies, allows that ``tactical profit taking is common going into the end of the year.'' But hey, the Fed is on your side. ``Real M3 money supply growth has reached 10.5%, the highest year-over-year growth in almost 28 years,'' Callies advised her clients. ``The surge in broad-based liquidity measures should provide essential support for equity markets and P/Es through most of 2002.''


Black Blade: Hoo Boy, here we go again. There are a lot of people who will likely get burned (again). These Wall Street Pimps like Abby Jo continue to tout the market but at some point investors have to consider the lack of corporate earnings and that many companies simply have no hope of earnings in the foreseeable future. Personally I await year end to see if Abby Jo Cohen's predictions of NASDAQ at 6500, S&P at 1650, and DOW at 12,500 come to pass. Somehow, I don't see it. And no one seems to even consider that it will soon be "Tax Loss" selling season soon. It is a strange world that we live in.


BTW, Authur Haily is a lucky and fortunate man to pursue his dreams and have a good woman at his side for so long. Quite an enviable position. Glad he's on our side.


Waverider (11/24/01; 21:33:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 65829)
megatron
I saw your post on silver mines a few days ago. Do you happen to know if the dichotomy of hedgers vs. non-hedgers seen with the gold miner companies is equally apparent with silver companies?
Thanks and Cheers,
Waverider

megatron (11/24/01; 21:21:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65828)
Rugbug
Your in luck, and intelligent company.
"Gold is the only honest money," he says. "At this point, a wise thing to do is buy gold shares. Although some are
speculating that gold will go to $1,000 an ounce or more, I
believe that a reasonable estimate of the price of gold in
the near future is $600."
This is from Arthur Hailey. I guess he just didn't have time in 86 years to absorb the prattlings of any muslim clerics.Lucky him.

megatron (11/24/01; 21:11:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 65827)
Rugbug
Some people just like generalizing or speaking in broad strokes, that's all. Of course the 'all paper will burn' thing is ridiculous. What you need to do is figure out which companies have the strongest balance sheet and the absolute least exposure to hedging and lowest cost/ounce. When gold takes off it will get you fantastic 'gearing' to the physical price. Probably more so with silver. This is what a rational investor does, you don't need a 'muslim cleric' to figure it out. That's just prattle to keep the troops happy.

Chris Powell (11/24/01; 21:03:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 65826)
Novelist Arthur Hailey strikes another blow for gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/926
The best-selling author Arthur Hailey strikes
another blow for gold:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/926


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade (11/24/01; 20:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65825)
Waverider - Silver Hedges?

I don't know how the Silver miners operate. I have only worked on one project for a silver miner (APEX Silver -SIL). I have met Paul Soros once, but this did not come up in our conversation. I would suspect that any silver hedges would essentially be similar to Gold hedges. There are very few primary silver miners left, and one one "profitable" one that I am aware of (First Silver Reserve). I don't know what their hedge exposure is if any. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Waverider (11/24/01; 20:20:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65824)
Black Blade
Black Blade: Thank you for the excellent overview of hedgers vs. non-hedgers. Why would Normandy even entertain a bid from AU - why go down with a drowning man? (as a scuba diver I say that facetiously) but seriously, if Normandy can have it's hedges unwound with Newmont/FN, wouldn't they see that as the best consolidation for the long term? Also, do you know if the hedge vs. non-hedge situation is also applicable to the silver mining companies?Cheers,
Waverider

auspec (11/24/01; 19:10:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65823)
Crashmaker Continued
www.crashmaker.com
The Reform Party now is empowered and the reformers are taking on the income tax 'issue':

"I'll {Pres. Cosgrove} deliver my message to Congress on the unconstitutionality of the income tax. We'll also announce our new policy on enforcement of income taxes," he pointed at Rittenhouse, "abating all prosecutions of individuals and small businesses for tax evasion, unless the cases meet very strict standards for fraud and willfulness. Tax evasion's an artificial, arbitrary crime that often derives from the complexity and oppressiveness of the Internal Revenue Code itself: people trying to minimize their taxes, as they have a right to do; the IRS trying to deceive or terrorize them into maximizing or even overpaying their taxes- or persecuting them for political reasons."
"I've started on that already," Rittenhouse reported to the President with a thin, hard smile. "I had the head of the Criminal Tax Division on the carpet yesterday. I showed him your preliminary guidelines. Under those, he whined, he'd have to dismiss most of his pending cases. So I asked him why he'd brought such weak cases in the first place. I pounded the desktop and yelled at him: YOU"RE the one who should be indicted! Then I ordered him to [repare a list of all cases he'd allowed to be prosecuted in the last five years, with the grounds for his decision as to each case. He left my office white as chalk. He must be really miserable, now that HE'S a target."
"Give him some company," scowled Cosgrove. "Push it, Doug, PUSH it. I want indictments handed down against every IRS agent, prosecutor, and judge you can identify who's denied taxpayers due process or other constitutional or civil rights. Especially in cases of politically motivated audits, extortion of excess taxes, seizures of property, prosecutions for alleged conspiracies to defraud the United States-- you know the areas. Make them squirm. Make them sweat. And find the politicians and Cheese Wheels who instigated the cases, too. I want...ah...ah..." Cosgrove groped for the apt phrase.
"A reign of terror," suggested Honrady.
"To put the fear of an avenging God in them all," the President smoothed the rough edges of his Secretary of Defens's otherwise praisworthy idea.
"My people have already scouted out about fifty counts against Ranscum {the previous President who happened to be quite unscrupulous} and his buddies," Rittenhouse said.
"Excellent," Cosgrove smiled broadly. "Now PUSH it. Nothing will build up pressure from below as much as exposure of how the income tax has been used to oppress ordinary Americans-- and by whom." END

Comment: I know this somehow relates to the gold market. Don't try this at home.



Black Blade (11/24/01; 19:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65822)
RE: Rugbug - Gold Stock (Hedgers vs. Non-Hedgers)
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=abx&d=t

If you want safety, first I would suggest physical Gold and physical silver. That said, the reason that some Gold miner stocks such as AngloGold and Barrick have under-performed the spot Gold market is that they have locked in a Gold price far below the recent rise in the POG as compared to other unhedged miners. Think of this as a drowning man (AU and ABX) in the open Ocean. When the rescuer (unhedged miner) comes out, the drowning man (AU and ABX) will latch onto him and try to climb out of the water, thereby drowning the rescuer as well as the drowning man. That is what we see with the AU/Normandy and ABX/HM mergers. Add to that these hedge fund miners are very unprofitable. Actually AU is barely profitable and ABX is far under water for at least 3 quarters (see link).

Personally I invest in both physical Gold and Silver (yeah even platinum) and unhedged - very profitable miners as I want complete exposure to a positive move in the POG. I suggest first establish a physical position for portfolio insurance before "playing the game" with mining shares. That said, Gold shares are counter-cyclical and perform a specific purpose to perform in a generally down market. AU and ABX have not performed in either a rising or sinking market. The general trend for these shares has been DOWN. The share holders have been burned badly while the upper management have pocketed bonuses even though the share price has tanked. I feel for the poor shareholders who have hoped and prayed for some competent management. Unfortunately I believe that these poor investors have had nothing to show but severe losses and a record of corporate mismanagement.

When the Washington Agreement was announced, there was an opportunity for the Gold industry to reverse a trend against the POG. The POG spiked higher. Then a major miner (Placer Dome Gold) announced that they would likely unwind their hedge book. The POG shot even higher. It looked as if the hedge funds were about to come apart and suffer greatly (this was on a Friday). The very next trading day (on a Monday), Barrick specifically came out to make an announcement that they would continue to sell forward production (though it was not required that they do so). This resulted in a quick collapse of the POG. Why would they do this? Quite curious isn't it?

Shortly after they made this announcement, they quickly purchased several million dollars worth of call options on the POG. Obviously they knew that they were in deep doodoo if the POG should take off and trigger margin calls by their counter-party bankers. ABX makes the claim that they are not subject to margin calls in this type of scenario, yet their actions defy all reason and logic if this were truly the case. The truth be known, they were probably scrambling out of extreme fear if other miner should abandon the Gold hedge scheme and spark a Gold Bull market. I for one would like to know what kind of banker as a counter-party for forward sales would give any miner (or any corporation for that matter) cart blanche to operate without any risk for any extended period of time and without any financial consequences should the POG rise dramatically. This would be unprecedented in the history of investment banking.

Personally I would suggest that you and any investor really study the potential investment and make sure that it meets your investment needs. I purchase physical Gold and Silver for preservation of capital and for portfolio insurance as a counter-cyclical investment. Then I purchase profitable and unhedged Gold mining shares for the speculative nature of the investment (that excludes hedged miners by the very nature of their anti-gold business). I also have other investments such as energy, utes, telecom, and (gulp) even some high tech. However, be very careful in these "shark infested waters." Cheers!

- Black Blade


Galearis (11/24/01; 18:37:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 65821)
Response & banter to Netking
How to waste time on a Saturday
My wife I were feeling frisky so we went down to Cobourg to a new flea market I discovered. I didn't find much of interest last time but did better this time.

At the front of the place are dealers with jewellry and smalls in coins and pms; not a great selection and the prices aren't inviting. But I did see an ornate little ash tray with the incongrous price of $6 on it. The staff retrieved it and I flipped it over and saw "SOVA" [90] marked on the bottom. I bought it, of course as it obviously weighed over an ounce (and it turned out to weigh out at 45 gm). Lovely thing, really, oval with an embossed raised crest in the centre. Swedish, I think, and never been used - mint condition. They didn't know what the '90' signified. Made another equally good silver buy there but can't give you details on a public forum. Christmas cometh.

Next stop was the Pickers Consignment shop in Port Hope. The woman there, who we like to kid around with, had saved me some things and ended up buying one item that weighed in at 65 gms. Plus a Birks sterling coffee spoon that weighed in at 34 gm. (The heaviest I have ever found.) I got the spoon for $3 and the other item almost at metal value. In the back room I found a glass and sterling girt bordered coaster - which she just gave to me (grin)

At the end of the day I am ahead on silver by $5. Getting difficult though - with these new silver lows.

Just a hobby and fun and it certainly didn't pay the gas.

Bill Murphy's response:
*************
I agree with you that the situation could become very dire, very quickly.
Always on alert on this end.
************
I hope he doesn't mind me pasting this on; he has probably already thought of this angle on the problem. I only do this because he agrees with the premis...(smile)

Time to get back to some quality down time with the family.
Cherrio,

G.

Waverider (11/24/01; 17:37:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 65820)
sourdough:re posting 65634
http://www.mint.ca/NR/rdonlyres/D20EFC79-C5C0-47AB-AEC2-A3B841285CA5/annual_report.pdf
Sourdough: My apologies for not responding to your question earlier than this. I've studied the "Precious Metals Risk" on page 32 of the RCM annual report and to be honest, I'm not sure - I was going to comment but at most it would be crude supposition.

I'm copying your question here and attaching the website should other canucks wish to comment on it.

"Is this to say, a Japanese dealer orders x amount of maple leaf coins at the current yen price of gold plus markup. At the same time the mint goes to whatever source it chooses (their refinery?)to purchase the metal at the same current yen spot price? Any demand/order immediately reflects in spot market.
Which currency will the yen purchase of mint gold end up converted to? The currency of the refinery supplier? CDN PRODUCER?, FOREIGN PRODUCER?"

ps - sourdough, if you've already found an explanation, please fill me in when you've a minute.

Thanks and cheers,
Waverider


Rugbug (11/24/01; 15:49:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 65819)
goldstock
Help! I read so many things on this forum that I am confused, especially about gold stocks. Why would the price of mine stocks go to near worthless as the pog spikes?
It stands to reason that at least for the short term as pog rises thousands and thousands are going to buy stocks remembering what it has done in the past. Especially large funds. I have researched the pog extensively and every time there was a crisis in the past 10 years, the pog spiked and also the price of mine stock climbed even higher.
I am new at this game and do not want to lose what investments that I have in the mine stock. Someone give me a lecture on this please. Anybody please.
confused rugbug

Zenidea (11/24/01; 15:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65818)
Paul Burton 2001 world gold conference
http://www.conference.australiangold.org.au/upload/burton.pdf
Interesting read?

Belgian (11/24/01; 15:10:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65817)
@ BR549 /Enron
Another decimated paper mill that bites the dust and goes for eternal rest on the graveyard of the papers that never were. A stockmarket of listed companies (not representing the full economy) that is valued at 1,6 times GDP at its highs in '98 !? Madness. An average valuation of 5 times Book-value, etc...Exhuberance !
BRRrrrrr ! Can you hear the sound of falling domino's ?
Gamblers are hypnotized and keep on gambling. In the mean time, Gold is Physically brought into the vaults of the casino bosses. Have a nice weekend.


Black Blade (11/24/01; 13:37:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65816)
AngloGold Investors Would Back Higher Offer for Normandy Mining
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&middle=ad_frame2_all&s=AO.9YbRb6QW5nbG9H

Snippit:

Johannesburg, Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- AngloGold Ltd., the biggest gold miner, has the support of most shareholders to raise its $2.3 billion offer for Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd. to beat a higher bid from Colorado-based Newmont Mining Corp., investors said.

AngloGold Chief Executive Bobby Godsell wants to buy Normandy in his company's biggest step to lessen its dependence on South Africa where the depth of deposits make mining the most expensive in the world. Failure will leave few takeover targets since five of the six top gold companies are taking over large mines or rivals. ``People would say go for it,'' said Armin Diem, head of southern African Asset Management for Appleton Asset Management in Cape Town, which owns AngloGold stock. ``They are desperate to diversify, and I don't think there are too many acquisitions left.''


Black Blade: Fear doesn't even begin to describe the problems being experienced by the large Gold short hedge funds like AU and ABX. Anglo is backed against the wall. They "MUST" win this bidding war. They have no choice so expect to see the premium for Normandy rise even further. These "Gold Shorts" "MUST" have "Cheap" ounces to deliver as high-grading as shortened the life of many mining operations. They haven't been doing any meaningful exploration and therefore they must look for other miners who have done the heavy lifting and hope to acquire them cheaply. These are definitely "Interesting Times" for the Gold Mining Industry. Note that most hedgers such as AU and ABX are unprofitable while nonhedgers such as HGMCY, GOLD, GG, and MDG tend to be quite profitable even in these difficult times. Why? Because they have to be nimble - able to adjust production and seek out more profitable methods and mining operations, while the hedgers "MUST" deliver at all costs. Hedging is not necessary to be a viable Gold Miner. I suspect that we are closing in on the endgame.


BR549 (11/24/01; 13:08:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65815)
Enron-an energy or derivative company?
http://news.excite.com/news/r/011123/17/business-utilities-enron-stock-dc
Belgian--

While I agree that derivatives have been around for a while, I contend that the story of Enron reported on these pages takes derivatives trading by the manipulators to a new all time low.

Right now the merger with Dynergy is in deep trouble as the equivalent offer "At Dynegy's current stock price, its offer for Enron is worth about $10.85 a share -- more than twice Enron's current share price."

Dynergy not only is stealing this "energy" company for less than 10% of its price a few months ago, it is getting even greedier because the market price is now headed into the $3's.

The interesting thing about Enron is that it is not really an energy company at all--it is the world's largest derivative speculator. The company is in meltdown via insider manipulations, derivatives, and stock trader speculations including both equity and bonds. If TV was going to make a new soap opera for us Goldbugs--what a plot!

Negotiations are taking place over the weekend to try and hold the merger together. The link above provides only part of the story. Feel lucky? Buy Enron long when trading opens on Monday. You can't possibly lose over $4/share. Or buy their junk rated bonds. Better yet go to the casino and bet the wheel on black (or red). The existing Enron stockholders have already gambled and lost billions.

BR549

Netking (11/24/01; 12:40:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 65814)
US recession could be declared next week / Galearis
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3GL0U8EUC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZUGORQ00C&tagid=ZZZNSJCX70C&subheading=global
The "official declaration" of the US's first recession in a decade could come as soon as next week.

The business-cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)has for a number of months been weighing the possibility of officially declaring that the US has entered its first recession since 1991. NBER is the non-partisan body that traditionally sets official US recession dates.

The Financial Times reported earlier this month that at least three members of the six-man body of academics believed the US was now in recession and that the group would likely declare one before Christmas. Recent media reports said an announcement could come as soon as next week. NBER officials could not be reached for comment on Friday. . . .

. . . . It is a foregone conclusion to many Americans. A poll conducted by the Conference Board last month found more than 52 per cent of those surveyed believed the terrorist attacks had shoved an already-wobbly US economy into recession.

"Before September 11 the odds were in favour of avoiding a technical recession," said Mr Bernanke, who conceded "there's a good chance at the end that we'll call a recession". . . . "
------------------------------------------------------------
Galearis - For sure silver has coming from sources we can't
indentify, but from leasing mainly. Whether it is from The Central Banks of the Phillipenes, The PRC or even India is fundamentally immaterial for us holders of the physical metal. This is source is HIGHLY uneconomic AND unsustainable(smile).

As you rightly suggest Sir Galearis, there will be a pay back time . . . . "Whatever a man sows that shall he also reap", or in from my time in banking: "whatever you borrow you're going to pay us back plus interest, or we're going to MAKE you pay it back!"(smile). Re: the Comex inventory, again good comment G. this will be like a "flag ship" to them and will be "left alone" intact as you suggest for as long as possible as "proof" of "Shortage?....what shortage?"(smile). I'll be interested in what Bill Murphy & Chris Powell have to say regarding your e mail to them, more power to them both. - Netking

sourdough (11/24/01; 12:20:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 65813)
"SCRAP CRAP"
I read somewhere the people who owned the outhouse concessions in Chinese cities (in days gone buy) were very wealthy as they sold human waste for fertilizer. I wonder if Korean waste management is privatized.I might be interested in investing. (smile, humor is the best medicine).......
"South Korea Bans Gold Decoration in Food


SEOUL South Korea's government has launched a crackdown on food decorated with gold after a company in Seoul started marketing dried corvina fish laced with gold dust, officials said Friday. The Korea Food and Drug Administration (KFDA) imposed the ban under a food hygiene law that allows the use of gold only for coloring beverages and sweets, AFP reported. "We have decided to take action as various kinds of expensive food containing gold are so widespread that it is stirring up public resentment against the rich," an official of KFDA said. "If this trend goes on, this country would have gilt rice someday," the official said. A single dried corvina fish wrapped in gold leaf costs 200,000 won ($156) and critics have condemned the fad as decadent. Restaurants and coffee shops in posh areas of Seoul have been serving raw fish, coffee and even pork dotted with gold dust for clients who believe the yellow metal clears their bodies of waste material."


Belgian (11/24/01; 11:37:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65812)
Goldenboy /BR549
Goldenboy : If "they" decide to give *Gold - Investment*, a boost...it is done in a second, with the media + fiat, at their disposal. But I'm convinced there never will be a Gold-Investment campaign or marketing! Have you ever seen anything similar of a campaign/promotion, for investment in "real money", the one and only ? Only paper with etheric prices and no value, shall be advertized ! There is not enough Investment-Gold for general/widespread, distribution. Gold is not for consumption. It is a store of wealth. *THE* store of wealth ! It took a gentlemen as FOA to discover this in full and no advertising campaign.

But it is significant that Jewelry Gold or numismatics, aren't mentionned in any consumptive commercial. They don't want us to accumulate Gold en masse ! Too dangerous when too much Gold arrives to the lands of lilliputans. Than it is valued by them, the lilliputans...and they are not supposed to do that ! Voila !

BR549 / We aren't discovering the dangers of the derivatives. Others have already been busy to warn extensively about this cancer. But the day of reckoning seems to come closer ! Step by step.

BR549 (11/24/01; 10:05:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 65811)
Belgian-A brilliant post well said.
Belgian (msg#: 65806)---

I have been trying to get my arms around the total exposure to the risk created by the totality of derivatives for months now. In a word--it is impossible.

The closest that I have come is the BIS report about CB exposures. Unfortunately this report was last updated in 1998. And it will be another 3-4 years before we get another one. By then it will be too late.

Look at paper derivatives being created by the manipulators at thieves like Enron, JPMC and the other brokesters, and every major corporation in the world. They all have TRILLIONS of risk in all denominations of fiat and PM's hidden within their financial statements. There are no GAAP requirements that disclose balance sheets and income statements derivative exposures and certainly there will not be any created by pro forma fantasies.

Whole countries economies are starting to fail. The latest Argentina, followed closely by Brazil, then.....? The world economy consists of debt suspended inside of a credit bubble that is larger than a physicist's definition of infinity. And when the derivative bubble bursts, and it will, the fallout will create economic devastation much greater than all of the combined thermo-nuclear devices everyone on the planet fears the most.

Regards,

BR549

Galearis (11/24/01; 09:58:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65810)
@ Netking & Chris Powell
Something more to ponder about silver..
I just sent this thought to Bill Murphy and realized that it would also (perhaps) be of interest to people on the forum. This way Chris may also receive it faster too.

Hi Bill,

I was thinking of firing this off to Chris over
there on GATA.org but he would possibly just pass this over to Bill Murphy himself. In the
case that you don't have much to think about this holiday weekend (smile):

Another sign that leasing is dead - for both gold and silver. The borrowers
have to repay their loans both in terms of principle and interest - both in
metal. To date most in the deepest water are paying off only the interest -
in metal - and rolling over .

Where would they be getting the metal for even the metal interest in silver
if the JMs and the Engelhards are not making small bar silver anymore? Can
you see them scrounging the back alleys of coin and bullion dealers for
this?

With only 34,000,000 + oz of eligible silver (and including an unknown lesser
amount of "good bar" grade) left on COMEX that ostensibly must be "left
alone" to imply solvency of the institution and as a rationalization for
paper trades, there must be a lot of insolmniacs out there in short land. [Lenders too, I presume.]

There is more than one way to default on a loan. How do these people pay off
the interest in 1000 oz + - 12% bars?

Keep your eyes and ears open, yours are bigger and better connected than
mine.

Regards,

G

Belgian (11/24/01; 09:15:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65809)
Manipulation Exposure
Holding * GOLD * on a very -Low Profile- is serving a purpose or more than one purpose. It is the recreation of the pré 1971 and London Gold Pool atmosphere. The 20$ rise in POG after 9/11, has been perfectly countered. It has not been used as a starter to build Gold-momentum on it.
Gold hates any media-fanfare, and Gold's masters want to divert the attention of the general public from the Physical to the hullabaloo of the goldmining consolidation circus. They are placing themselves in pole position for what is to come. Individual accumulators are disturbing, because they are the ones that are constantly pointing to the manipulation. Analogy with de-listing of the De Beers, and hiding in the privacy of the Oppenheimers when the organisations on "blood diamonds" came out of the blue.

This management of a low profile on Gold is much more difficult. People never accumulated diamonds for wealth preservation, with the exception of a small period in the 1980-ties. But still there does exists a large diamond investment organization that is promotibng all kinds of different certificates for diamonts.

I have the impression (getting stronger) that major miners are quite uncertain about what will happen to Gold and their mining activity. I smell some fear. The low profiling on Gold is becoming less easy to manage than its analog, diamonts. The surprise announcement of the WA is probably a prelude for another kind of surprise, that might affect goldminers in a more dramatic way than a hedge-squeeze.
TG already suggested the mines becoming money-miners, overnight. It also might be such a strong and swift explosion of the Gold Valuation that we don't
need the underground gold anymore. Or that they can't mine enough Gold, quick enough to satisfy huge and sudden demand. And that Physical trade will exclusively be done with aboveground Gold. The Goldmine shareholders might suddenly realise that underground gold, has only value when it is brought to the refinery and that the mines aren't able to bring it up into the buying frenzy. Dream on Belgian !?

A sudden and very strong explosion on Gold Valuation, might be the complete surprise for almost everybody.
It might be the euro-builders or one or more of their allies (China), who are already managing this, to make it happen.

Gold from a neglectable extreme low profile to the topic number one !? A cataclysm. A fight for getting the Physical ASAP. No underground gold available ! Mine-prices, crumble and mine-owners take them private...for less than 2 cents ? Why not ?

goldenboy (11/24/01; 07:59:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65808)
How To Stimulate Investor Demand for Physical
GREED AND FEAR!
As much as we may wish to wax eloquent about the virtue of gold, the purity of reason and fairness that the use of it as a medium of exchange represents, the one compelling reason for the general public and for that matter the prudent investor to acquire it is the same motivating factor that drives all markets.....greed and fear.
Why would the WGC/ABX/SA producers think that there would be any other argument as compelling?
Everyone on the planet knows gold is beautiful in jewellery but not everyone understands that gold was always the foundation of the money exchange system of the world til 1971.
A simple ad on television, advising Americans that their federal reserve is owned by a consortium of private banks, followed by a picture of Jefferson and written and spoken words of his warning against the issue of paper currency would do more for gold than jewellery advertising. This could be followed up with other ads playing to greed and fear.


goldenboy (11/24/01; 07:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65807)
Belgian; Educate, Accumulate & Wait
I agree with your last post. The word must be spread, through newspapers as well, if the controllers allow it. However, my last letter to the editor regarding gold was not published despite an 80% success rate in getting letters to the editor published.
Over many years I have been a believer but have also gotten sucked in to providing the very incentive (paper positions in stocks) that has facilitated the shorters. (Example; purchase a convertible bond in gold company x when gold at $350/oz. Controllers in the know, know gold headed for $300.They then play the shorting game on gold, the bond and the common to take your cash that you could have used to buy the physical and wait them out. OUCH!)
The lesson is a painful one, have not totally given up on stocks, at least now only own non-hedgers.


Belgian (11/24/01; 07:00:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 65806)
The Paper Inferno !
Paper : Cash (fiat-currency) - Bonds - Stocks - Derivatives.
There is no figure that gives us an idea of the total amount of all these papers do represent (pretend to represent) 40 trillion of yearly global GDP !
This paper mastodont must get a picture (figure) to become comparable (candidates ?)
Once it can be showed how the total amount of paper has been growing against the growth in total production of goods and services, than it will become much easier for everyone to understand what the financial whizzards have been organizing. Then the obscene valuation of 140.000 tonnes aboveground Gold, gets a very understandable picture for the general public.

Otherwise, the general public and Funds, are waiting for, price-inflation to get confirmation of the hidden reality.
And this is than not anticipated with accumulated Physical Gold and the goldbugs will be playing a trend (up) as usual.

Bond/Stock/derivative-paper are all pointing in the same down direction : lower interest rates - bear rallies in stocks - declining volatility in derivatives and permanent losses for the stubborn participants, loosing an arm or leg against the derivative-gamble organizers. But the only paper that stopped showing a trend is the US$. Simply because all other indicators haven't reached their (final)bottom and haven't reversed, to indicate that price inflation is going to materialize at last, with retroactive correction.

Once the formidable expansion of this paper-industry (banks-traders of all sorts) is going to explode, when the general public starts to realize in what they have been participating...it will cause a chain effect of disasters.
It is impossible to control a reversal-up of interest rates worldwide, once that process of price-re-inflation, starts to get its momentum. Contraction of economic activity has its limits, before massive default chain reactions come into play. These limits are artificially pushed further and further, during the ongoing contraction. Up until the moment that the past depreciation of the currencies, will come up for its rights. There is no perpetum mobile.

With declining interest rates, savers, are shifting their fiat into tangibles as real estate and land already, for investment. They follow their intuition. This hasn't resulted yet in a dramatic price rise, because it is only substituting a decline in normal growth expansion cycles.
Savings and artificial (financial) profits, compensated for the lack of pricing power, for most of the goods and services, provided by an ever more efficient and enslaving production aparatus (Globalization).

Many are speculating on what exactly will cause the final breakdown. There will be no specific straw or stick that will break the back of this economic monster. It is the process in itself that has the wrong dynamics and therefore selfdestructive. The indication of zero rates, is a signal that we are getting very close to the moment of truth.

Most, if not all, paper machines, refuse to anticipate this with a minimum of Physical Gold. Gold doesn't generate more paper for them. And they can't afford the inert Physical in possession ! They have no choice left. No reserves or no capacity to acquire any reserves, has condemed them to put the paper circus in overdrive, just to keep going.
The whole world is getting stucked ! There is no way out but to inflate gigantically.

Past prosperity will and shall come to present its final and complete bill and it must be paid, no matter what. The bar keeper ran of of credit possibilities and will have to close or print an enormous amount of new paper to have some clients left.

The majority is convinced that there is another party to start after this bachanal. Forget it ! Or show me your invitation.

Belgian (11/24/01; 04:18:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65805)
Gold Intervention/Manipulation
And how to break free of it ?
Increasing the present Gold-Education and search for reliable allies, who understand and act. And this with only one goal : accumulating as much Physical Gold in Possession to make the intervention as difficult as possible and let "time" do the job. If the valuation of Gold can stand against renewed attacks of price-declines...a bottom pattern will attrackt further accumulating allies. A long and extended (accumulation) bottom is also a *Trend* !

The interventionists, are to avoid any consistant trend in POG and use the tactic of immobilism, so much hated by investors (?) speculators or gamblers !

Let us explain the tactics used by the Gold-Masters and provide further insights why it is done. The notion of "permanent depreciating currencies" must be illustrated
for all to see and understand ! Most people don't understand what is going on and can't afford the luxury of studying the whole drama and its history.

How does one say or give evidence that all fiat kept in any form is practically worthless and constantly loosing value in the most steatlhy way imaginable ? Difficult job to bring such a message to the general public.
Maybe the language of the Gold Advocates has to become less academic and simplier. Without using populist stimuli's that become counterproductive, very soon.

The manipulators are also mastering the "psychology" of the POG movements. They understand how to play the general public and their positions in paper versus physical.
In the case that too much physical should be accumulated, I suspect a strong downraid on POG to shake the trees.
It is by explaining this kind of tactics and how they can be achieved and by who...that confidence and perseverance can be cultivated through a broader public. A very, very, difficult job, in times of succesfull and prolonged culture of gambling. I don't give up !



Netking (11/24/01; 00:08:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65804)
Oil's tumultuous week - cont.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1671000/1671755.stm
London's benchmark crude oil price has completed one of its most dramatic weeks since the Gulf War ended in 1991. . . ."




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