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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/24/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Sierra Madre
(01/24/01; 23:52:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46394)
Revelation....
I hope you don't linger here much longer. You've had your say, and have been civilly treated by others, who think differently from you.
You are whining about gold. So whose fault is it? Do we like the situation? No! Do we whine about it? No.
So you think it s...s? OK
Then sell your miserable gold and do something with your life. Nobody is forcing you to buy gold or keep it. So if others do want to buy gold and hold it, what business is that of yours?
I hope you don't mean to plague this Forum like uptick, goldbuggerer and skinny plague kitco. The reason I like this Forum is that they are not here. Are you one of their incarnations?
So shut up already!
lamprey_65
(01/24/01; 23:23:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46393)
Darn it all, ThaiGold!
http://www.raru.adelaide.edu.au/craig/wow.html
orangeries? NOPE!
orangutans? NOPE!
outerspace? NOPE!
oysterings? NOPE!
oppression?
I give up ;-)
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 23:19:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46392)
TO: Randy@the tower
I'll be very candid with you and straight forward. At least
he's not afraid or in deniel of the real truth behind golds
fate (Peter Bernsteins) The Power Of Gold. I happen to
firmly believe in his analysis of what to expect when a
individual hoards gold. Sorry, but many posters have
been wrong with their thoughts on this market. It
served no purpose in reading all the false hopes set out for
gold. Nothing to this day has become a reality but a severe
disappointment in search of false prophecies. If I would
choose to listen to someone wouldn't you select someone
with credebility. I'm here only because I don't want to
lose faith but it's getting more difficult all the time. The more
time that passes the harder I kick myself. Opportunities are
being lost and still hanging onto a hope and dream that
is made up of mostly fate. Gold is no means the secret to
wealth. If it were true none of you would be here. It's
very obvious and not exactly hard to figure. I'm only stating
the facts. It's up to you if you believe in something else,
however gold might rally but it all depends on how they
fine tune the economy. The jury is still out if gold can
maintain it's current price level never mind rally in the
face of a recession. Goldbugs hope is hyperinflation
which will come back to haunt the very people who
wished for it. The dollar is the key for gold and to
wish for something worse is even more stupid. How
about nukes ???? Do you think we can rally gold
then. Lets get real, hoarding gold can be a persons
demise. Are we on the same page. Buying gold for insurance and hoarding are not the same. My own
learning curve is a long one. Lets hope others can
learn from some of our misfortunes and to keep control
over gold buying sprees.
Black Blade
(01/24/01; 22:59:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46391)
RE: Cor Tauri (01/24/01; 15:54:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46332)
I think you got the point about buying PMs. They can be an investment per se, however, they are best suited as insurance. In an ever increasing uncertain world, it is ever more imperative to buy this kind of "insurance", especially while it is at depressed bargain prices. With energy prices increasing and causing a serious drag on the economy as some of us have talked about over the last few years, the general public is just now beginning to get the "point" as they receive their utility bills, pay at the pump, or stumble about in the dark. The Feds say "all is well," and when they say such things, then beware. It's as dangerous as when they say "Hi, I'm from the government and I'm here to help you."
- Black Blade
ThaiGold
(01/24/01; 22:43:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46390)
Vision Quest
Attn: slingshot (01/24/01; 21:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46382)
slingshot writes:
PROFITS FROM OIL
PROFITS FROM OPIUM
PROFITS FROM OPIUMUSERS
==============================
Not bad. 2 out of three.
But how could an opium_user (junkie) ever
show a profit.?. Keep thinking. Keep riding.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/24/01; 22:31:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46389)
REVELATION.... tsk tsk tsk
I have recently read the book by Mr. Bernstein you hold in such high regard, "The Power of Gold". Yes, in places he provides commentary very rich with anti-gold sentiment. Does that impress you? Has it occurred to you that beyond the role of historian Mr. Bernstein may have an agenda with regard to his economic bets? His economic consultancy is surely to be advantaged by these efforts, no? Would he not "talk his (economic) book" within his own book? Absolutely.
A delightful telling of much history, to be sure, and he will likely make many thousands in sales on the strength of the pretty cover alone. But be advised, what he understands -- or should I say chooses to reveal -- about the undercurrent role of gold in the modern economic framework fills only a thimble in the comprehensive ocean of the modern "power of gold". Such are my words to you and all that may be so easily influenced and led astray by something so nicely bound in hardcover.
R Powell
(01/24/01; 22:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46388)
Five year plans
For Al Fulchino and Cavan Man. Thought I'd mention that in my searching for cotton crop information from China, I'm often reminded that all is going exceptionally well in this-the beginning of the 9th Five-year plan for textile development in China. They report it without humor and, actually, there are doing quite well. Well enough to not have much cotton for export and well enough to have currency to buy gold.
I'm in the middle of my 11th Five-year plan and am still trying to get it right.
Rich
R Powell
(01/24/01; 22:16:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46387)
Revelation
I don't mean to belittle your lose and I do feel badly for all who unfairly loose money in rigged markets. I don't believe large amounts of money should be invested in any market whose fundamentals are as obscure as gold or silver. I try to analyse supply and demand to determine ending (carryover)stocks at the end of the market year. This ending stock divided by total use gives a percentage number suitable for previous years price comparison. This approach does NOT work with gold as it does with cotton or corn.
Perhaps large investments in metals should be in physical for the Long-term and with money that will not be needed in the Short-term. Small option investments in gold should be with gambling money that can be lost without family suffering. Perhaps there's a buck or two to be made elsewhere, like a possible short squeeze in cotton, or something else to diversify until gold and silver fly again.
A few long term out of the money options but don't bet the farm. This is not trading advice but is presented for discussion purposes only. Having come this far, think of what it would be like to watch it happen with no options or physical.
Trade within your own limits and don't sacrifice health and happiness for percieved wealth. Peace.
Rich
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 22:01:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46386)
TO poster : SIMPLY ME
You are then hoping for hyperinflation just what
everyone needs. You should read Peter Bernsteins
book " THE POWER OF GOLD" and in the last
chapter he tells us that most of the worlds goldbugs
got their own fate right back in their own laps. The last chapter was a real surprise to say the least. People who
hoarded gold always had a sad ending. If you purchase
gold for insurance and use a small part of your wealth
thats fine but to hoard it will bring you misery. Read his
book I found it to be wealth of information and don't
be a goldbug or else. Play if you will but only small
portion of your wealth is the best advise.
Al Fulchino
(01/24/01; 21:55:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46385)
Cavan MAn
You said:
Remember, the "East" has a 100 year plan. In the land(s) of immediate gratification, we, at best, work on five year plans.
My Dad is fond of saying (rough translation from street Yiddish) "think like a Jew". I say, "think like the other 2/3 of planet earth". What conclusions do you draw then?
end quote
me: Not to be disagreeable, but economies that think in 100 year plans have no advantages over our "turn on a dime" philosophy. Those 5 year Soviet and Chinese planned economies proved it. Unless you include thievery of technology, of course.
In fact, any leader or people thinking back in 1900 for example that they could have a "plan" for the next 100 years would be....well to be blunt....ceding their offspring to live in the past and perform with outdated tools of any nature.
This principle remains: Economies are fluid. Forces apply pressures on all sides and ALL the time. The smallest of the economic organism needs to react with autonomy to respond to these forces.
I don't think there is much in the East that I am enviable of. Not their economies, not their spirit, not their way of life. Not that I don't respect parts of the their heritage. But I will take our freedom for immediate gratification ANY DAY. Why? because the results of our choices are immediately ours. Good or bad. And they are our own.
You know, in a way we really do have a 100 year plan, we just make many more decisions, have much more results and much more reward during that 100 years. And the plan is, with little exception, in the world, the plan of lassez faire. <Boy am I gonna get hit by some here on that one (smile)>
R Powell
(01/24/01; 21:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 46384)
LeSin (46371)
I believe this might be good news indeed. It will be hard to surpress the public reaction to the issuing of a national gold coin. There won't be any hard-to-meet credentials necessary for purchase as there are at BOE auctions. The public may be interested in public reaction to its issuance, that is, it may prove newsworthy. The average Jane and Joe may take notice. Publicity and advertisement to stir up investor sentiment. What if this supply is (like the last BOE auction) 4.8 times oversubscribed? Father, the sleeper has awakened!
We'll see.
Rich
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 21:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46383)
R. POWELL
Yes, in 9/99 I made close to $80,000 on gold stocks sold
them and bought back in. Now look at it. It's pathetic, and
the market won't budge an inch. No rally of any significance since. You were lucky, because all those
options you speak of would be worthless if you purchased
them anytime else in the last 2 years. If I was smart I would
get my sences off the gold market and would be making lots in other ways. I am being ruined by being too involved
with the gold market. Never before have I suffered so dearly. There has been plenty of other opportunities which
would have made me plenty in the last 2 years. It's really
sick when you think of what you missed because of this
silly gold market. In the last 3 weeks fortunes have been
made just buying some well known stocks. Also some time
ago I saw Phillip Morris sell off and hung onto to gold thinking it would rally. As of today I have lost big and my
life is being greatly affected. I live in California just in the last
year Real Estate has been phenomenal. Also being eyeing
LOR stock in the last week and almost sold my gold stocks
to buy into it. Well sir that stock has almost doubled since
and the fact remains Gold is losing big. Gold is sitting at
all time lows and can't even stage a small rally. This speaks
for itself. What money to be made in gold ????
PLEESSSEEEEEE ......enough....This is nonsence.
If you tried to sell options on gold they would excercise
you right out of the market. Tell me whos making money
on GOLD and where are they. The only ones making it are
the ones who set the rules. Not you or me. Stop kidding
yourself. Sorry, but this is the real world and this is how
they play the game. You think you can win. GOOD LUCK
I have never seen anyone get rich with gold yet.
" NONE"
slingshot
(01/24/01; 21:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46382)
ThaiGold Riddle
PROFITS FROM OIL
PROFITS FROM OPIUM
PROFITS FROM OPIUMUSERS
slingshot
ThaiGold
(01/24/01; 21:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46381)
Vision Quest
Attn: Canuck (01/24/01; 20:05:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46374)
Canuck writes:
1) PROFITS FROM Oxx
2) PROFITS FROM Oxxxx
3) PROFITS FROM Oxxxxxxxxx
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape writes:
Huh?
auspec writes:
Pxxxxxx = %
Pandagold writes:
It's almost as bad as Thai Gold's riddle-me-re
ThaiGold wrote:
PFO has Three Components:
(1) (Pxxxxxx Fxxx Oxx)
(2) (Pxxxxxx Fxxx Oxxxx)
(3) (Pxxxxxx Fxxx Oxxxxxxxxx)
Now I tell you:
Follow Canuck. His Pony is swift. Soon he will Know.
auspec
(01/24/01; 21:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46380)
@ThaiGold
1} Profits from Oil
2} " " O?
3} " " O?
Cavan Man
(01/24/01; 20:47:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46379)
Lafisrap
IMHO, we need not be reminded by the mainstream press that Euro ministers et al are lobbying for Euro settlement of oil if only in the Euro Zone; of course they are! Wouldn't you do likewise?
A big key to the FOA/Another scenario (if not "the key") is Euro settlement of oil. If this doesn't happen well, it's been nice chatting with you fellas right? What they are prediciting and forecasting is an economic 8.0 Richter here in dollar land.
If time proves all things as they are wont to say, I predict none of us will be as sanguine about events as they.
Tree in the Forest
(01/24/01; 20:44:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46378)
Auspec
www.ny.frb.org
The best place for storing gold is with the people. Though FDR would not have agreed with this obviously. 55 Water St. in New York is the DTC (Depository Trust Co.), the holders of all stock in "street name". Some have attributed nefarious purposes to this including that said stock would be held ransom for repayment of US debt. We hold quite a bit of ransom ourselves, however, so this scenario is dubious. Chase Manhattan (Rockefeller) is also at this address I believe. The Fed is at 33 Liberty St. and claims to hold some 700 billion in foreign deposits of gold and securities. You can tour the Fed and see their vaults 5 floors below street level in bedrock. Now that should be impressive. A lot of gold in one place. The building is suitably impressive also with massive stone block walls, bars on all windows etc. They have a website with much info at above link. Regards.
Simply Me
(01/24/01; 20:16:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46377)
Revelation
Those wonderful bargains you're seeing at the stores?...they're signs of desparate retailers trying to dump the remains of their undersold Christmas inventory.
As for gold, it's not for making money equal to the stock market bubble. It's for keeping your wealth after the bubble bursts. If the foretold hyperinflation arrives...in a couple of years, the economic survivors will be considered the wealthy.
simply me
Cavan Man
(01/24/01; 20:13:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46376)
The Best of the Best
Gold settled in dollars.
Oil settled in dollars.
Dollar is world "reserve currency".
US equities are tops.
Ergo, US debt and deficit indefinitely sustainable?
ad infinitum?
Remember, the "East" has a 100 year plan. In the land(s) of immediate gratification, we, at best, work on five year plans.
My Dad is fond of saying (rough translation from street Yiddish) "think like a Jew". I say, "think like the other 2/3 of planet earth". What conclusions do you draw then?
Cavan Man
(01/24/01; 20:06:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46375)
Canuck on Trail Guide
Great post sir. I for one am not in a hurry to live in his new paradigm. The country I live in would be economically crushed for an indefinite period while adjustments were made etc. I suppose Canada would suffer as well. Even a gold owner fully "paid up" will have problems if confiscation becomes reality. In looking for a "hole in the fence" I can find none in any direction despite physical AU. Challenges abound. I will also say that I am a positive person although sans a "traders" mentality when it comes to investing. Having said that, I continue to expect a serious economic adjustment just around any turn.
Canuck
(01/24/01; 20:05:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46374)
@ Thai Gold
1) PROFITS FROM Oxx
2) PROFITS FROM Oxxxx
3) PROFITS FROM Oxxxxxxxxx
a) warm?
b) cold?
Lafisrap
(01/24/01; 19:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46373)
R Powell msg#: 46344)
R Powell said: would you invest in something that required no carrying costs and would perhaps show a large return and possibly extremely large return but at some unknown time in the future.
If it is gold, yep, even silver. I kinda like them.
I am almost always undecided as to whether I should purchase more now or later, after the price drops some more.
Lafisrap
megatron
(01/24/01; 19:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46372)
Broken Record
They will lie.
They will print money.
They will fake statistics.
They will lie about the printed money.
They will 'help' people out of helicopters.
They will sell your gold until it's gone.
They will short stocks and indices.
They will take your assets.
They will hire men to obfuscate the reality.
They will hire men to 'protect' him.
They will hire another scumbag to replace the last one.
BLA BLA BLA................
Sorry boys but aint NOTHING gonna happen until the human garbage who are actively de-valuing the 'asset' decide they want 'full' value for it. Not 1 second before.
LeSin
(01/24/01; 19:52:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46371)
GERMANS EXPECTING MASSIVE DEMAND FOR GOLD DEUTSCHEMARK COIN
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/jan2001/deutschemark-15.htm
GERMANS EXPECTING MASSIVE DEMAND FOR GOLD DEUTSCHEMARK COIN
The changeover to the eurito, as the Spaniards love to call it - diminutive form of the euro - is less than a year away. The Germans have no great confidence in the new currency and a majority would prefer to retain the Deutschemark as they, of all people, know what it is like to have worthless paper. It is therefore understandable that the Bundesbank, which is the country's central bank, is yielding to public pressure and starting to mint a gold version of the one-mark coin.
The 12 gramme coin will be sold this summer for around £76 which is a fairly hefty premium to the gold price assuming it will be less than 24 carat purity. It will also be double the weight of the standard coin so is likely to go under the bed rather than in the trouser pocket. Indeed there is every reason to think that all the coins will disappear overnight as only 12 tonnes of gold is being used. Presumably more will forthcomng to prevent a black market in the coins.
The idea is to celebrate the country's achievement in rising from ruin after the second world war to become one of the leaders of Europe so the coins which will have Deutsche Bundesbank rather than Bundesrepublik Deutscheland on the front. Part of the proceeds will go to a foundation that preserves the culture of Prussia, the warlike state founded about 300 years ago, and the rest of the profits to restoration of the so-called Museum Island in Berlin. Despite all Germany's efforts, therefore, to lead us into a Federation of European States, it remains locked in praise of its past.
How , then, has the European Central Bank reacted to the gold mark? It must know that even now the coins are being delivered to bunkers all around the country so that delivery to banks in different regions can be simultaneous. And this can only be the action of a country expecting a tumultuous demand for the gold coin. The total silence from the usually chatty ECB must indicate a complete sense of helplessness. This is the same bank that only a matter of weeks ago told the Spaniards that there was no way they could mint a gold peseta as it would overshadow the eurito.
The only difference is that the German coin is going to be made out of gold from the official reserves and the peseta from Spain's only producing gold mine , El Valle in northern Spain. The Spaniards are a proud people and they have a long history in gold , both in their own country and in South America. Will they really buckle down and accept the dictum of the ECB, or do their own thing?
This is a window of opportunity for the World Gold Council which failed dismally to say a word when the major producers of the world chickened out over the global millennium gold coin proposed by the late Julian Baring. Demand was expected to use up to 1,000 tonnes of gold and this would have put their bearish hedging programmes under pressure. No such problem now, so it will be interesting to see if the WGC speaks, or squeaks, on Spain's behalf.
25 January 2001
Canuck
(01/24/01; 19:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46370)
@ Trail Guide
Re: Your post 46354.
I see your post, I have read your message but I simply don't get it. Why are the miners taking a beating?
Placer digs out of the earth real, tangible physical and yet, as from your post (and link) is raising the 'white flag'.
I am accumulating physical with my saving, a little silver, a little gold, and a little SF.
In the interim, my retirement fund (RRSP here in Canuckland) is taking a trashing with 'unhedged' (or what I perceive to be unhedged) producers; G.TO, AGE.TO mainly and a sprinkling of PDG.TO and K.TO. I sit on the edge of too nervous to be out and too god-damn bull-headed to get out while I watch my retirement fund fade into oblivion.
I think I understand the paper game, a corrupt, fractionilization of physical, distorting the 'underlying asset' but I still don't understand why miners, the guys that supply PHYSICAL to market are taking the supreme flogging that they are. Is it merely that they are at the mercy of paper prices and must sell into that crooked, corrupt state of affairs. Is it simply that they must ensure the rentless wretched ways of the 'cabal' until (and if they survive) physical separates from paper.
So let me see, a physical producer must forward and hedge to survive today to see tomorrow and consequently commits suicide in doing just that(in the event of a sudden rise of POG; a la Ashanti)? Any purely 'unhedged' producer must 'float' at spot and since production cost approaches spot renders himself non-profitable regardless. So the producers are screwed hedged or unhedged?
Why are the producers forced to sell at spot or forward at 'the contango' when governments 'trade' (countering imbalances) at $562/$564
as Christian and Tree of Life have mentioned?
Am I warm or ice cold?
This brings credence to the stories of government authorities (dictators) cornering/monopolizing gold, yes?
What is that term, governments 'nationalizing' gold mines, etc.
I would like to hear from you or anyone else on these theories.
I believe that one of two scenarios exist at this time. I have been listening and following for 3 years now.
a) I don't have a clue what's going on and I should get out.
b) This is a massive, extrordinarily crooked venture co-ordinated by very, very high levels of international governments with the motive of severely and completely distorting all aspects of financial accounting beyond any recognition of order.
In the past I have asked a couple of very pointed questions in your direction Sir Friend of Another. I apologize for that. I will blame naiviety and ignorance for that and I believe that a man of your stature might forgive that. I sense now that you have 'larger fish to fry'.
May your wealth only overwhelm your charity.
Canuck.
Canuck
(01/24/01; 19:39:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46369)
@ Trail Guide
Re: Your post 46354.
I see your post, I have read your message but I simply don't get it. Why are the miners taking a beating?
Placer digs out of the earth real, tangible physical and yet, as from your post (and link) is raising the 'white flag'.
I am accumulating physical with my saving, a little silver, a little gold, and a little SF.
In the interim, my retirement fund (RRSP here in Canuckland) is taking a trashing with 'unhedged' (or what I perceive to be unhedged) producers; G.TO, AGE.TO mainly and a sprinkling of PDG.TO and K.TO. I sit on the edge of too nervous to be out and too god-damn bull-headed to get out while I watch my retirement fund fade into oblivion.
I think I understand the paper game, a corrupt, fractionilization of physical, distorting the 'underlying asset' but I still don't understand why miners, the guys that supply PHYSICAL to market are taking the supreme flogging that they are. Is it merely that they are at the mercy of paper prices and must sell into that crooked, corrupt state of affairs. Is it simply that they must ensure the rentless wretched ways of the 'cabal' until (and if they survive) physical separates from paper.
So let me see, a physical producer must forward and hedge to survive today to see tomorrow and consequently commits suicide in doing just that(in the event of a sudden rise of POG; a la Ashanti)? Any purely 'unhedged' producer must 'float' at spot and since production cost approaches spot renders himself non-profitable regardless. So the producers are screwed hedged or unhedged?
Why are the producers forced to sell at spot or forward at 'the contango' when governments 'trade' (countering imbalances) at $562/$564
as Christian and Tree of Life have mentioned?
Am I warm or ice cold?
This brings credence to the stories of government authorities (dictators) cornering/monopolizing gold, yes?
What is that term, governments 'nationalizing' gold mines, etc.
I would like to hear from you or anyone else on these theories.
I believe that one of two scenarios exist at this time. I have been listening and following for 3 years now.
a) I don't have a clue what's going on and I should get out.
b) This is a massive, extrordinarily crooked venture co-ordinated by very, very high levels of international governments with the motive of severely and completely distorting all aspects of financial accounting beyond any recognition of order.
In the past I have asked a couple of very pointed questions in your direction Sir Friend of Another. I apologize for that. I will blame naiviety and ignorance for that and I believe that a man of your stature might forgive that. I sense now that you have 'larger fish to fry'.
May your wealth only overwhelm your charity.
Canuck.
Farfel
(01/24/01; 19:33:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46368)
@Kitco Rants...
Checked in again with the Kitco board, and it looks like the forum's village idiot, Skinny, is now the chief purveyor of info there.
He is on a rant about GATA, and although I think GATA's methodology is not always the best, I don't know what they did to deserve his constant abuse.
Of course this Skinny is in love with that pile of shit mining company known as BARRICK GOLD, employing the greatest collection of scam artists ever put together under one roof.
But alas and alack, his beloved BARRICK GOLD is stinking to high heaven, the stock price heading quickly toward another 52 week low, even as the company makes around a billion dollars a year.
My own theory is that Skinny is really Peter Munk, a backwoods sub-moron slimester who figured that if he hedged his entire company's annual production plus four years, and assisted in the destruction of gold as a financial asset, then all those profits would make him rich.
Well, so long as the clueless Barrick execs keep paying themselves from their annual hefty profits, at the expense of their shareholders, then I guess they do OK.
BUT if they are looking for share appreciation to enhance their bank accounts, forget about it. Barrick stock remains one of the most pathetic underperformers on the stock exchange, and its prognosis remains dismal.
Thanks
F*
R Powell
(01/24/01; 19:32:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46367)
Revelation
I don't wish to question or rehash any discussions concerning the powers that be or the machinations behind the price of gold or the suppression of that price. I will, however, dispute your claim that it's close to impossible to profit from gold. By profit, I mean the most mundane of all-US currency. I watched an investment of approx. $700 in gold call options rise to approx. $20,000 in a very short time in late Sept.- early Oct 1999. I was even fortunate enough to cash in on half of it. Lost the other half.
Every now and again we win!
Rich
Lafisrap
(01/24/01; 19:23:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46366)
Cavan Man msg#: 46320)
Cavan Man said: You're forgetting about the ongoing negotiations for the Euro to settle (perhaps in a basket) oil internationally. That is the catalyst. That is the key.
Yes, I forgot about the FOA/Another prediction that OPEC would change from exchanging oil for US dollars to oil for euro. I don't know about the ongoing negotiations connected with that, in fact I didn't know there were any. I do remember the announcememts from Iraq that it would accept (only?) euro for oil. Can you shed some light on the situation?
I also forgot another important milestone in the FOA/Another scenario, which is that the LBMA/COMEX pricing of gold will, as it breaks down, send POG to zero or near zero.
I'm not yet sure of what I think or feel about the prediction that LBMA/COMEX POG will go to zero. If that were to happen quickly, I could accept it much more easily than if the trend of the last twenty years continues, which would place POG at or near zero in another 20 years. And, it would be extremely frustrating to be "reassured" that the LBMA/COMEX pricing mechanism "is just about to break," at POG $250, $200, $150, $100, and then see it level out for several years (or any such similar thing).
It's great to have gold as insurance against calamity. Done. Now I am interested in its purchasing power.
Lafisrap
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(01/24/01; 19:20:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46365)
GOLDEN TRENCH PARTICIPANT!
SLINGSHOT: Consider me in for the duration! Take the lead, I'll follow. 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, 1.0 ounce at a time! START A PRECEDENT (DENYING CONSUMPTION/BUYING GOLD) THAT OUR DESCENDANTS WILL BE PROUD OF US FOR, EVEN IF WE DO NOT REALIZE OR SEE THE DAY WHEN THE GAINS WILL BE MATERIALIZED! Let's take it ALL off the table. Can't wait till we get into the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA'S stash! Like GREENIE says, Central Banks stand ready to sell adequate gold into the market place! When all the subordinates' stash is gone, we have to get into the MAIN GUY'S gold reserves. THAT WILL BE THE FIRST GOLDEN DAY FOR ALL OF US in the TRENCHES!!!!
CoBra(too)
(01/24/01; 19:20:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46364)
@ Skiing @ Economy ....
... The old Austrian School IS unsurpassed ... and as I'm trying to convert to the latter - while I'm still 'carving' to crave the fellow (-ship} of Mises - I'm
at a loss to answer Panda on behalf of (mis-spelled) cb2 - Even though -
you know -
what it means:
when a young man invites a lady to dine
with whiskey (note spelling) and wine!
Oh, yes she knew what it meant -
That's why she went!
Understand, my friend - a few in my land - are allowed to discern - LEHRE vs LEERE - and as you've found out ...
I'm now embarassed to tout (cb2) Citizen's Band #2 ...no clout nor revenue! -cb2 - gold is a C(heap) B(uy) T(oo) -
-boo (YA) hoo...
Cavan Man
(01/24/01; 19:05:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46363)
Mr Gresham
How can one overlook the Euro? We're talking about an economic block with critical mass comparable in many respects to the US. Will the Euro zone ever be "America"--hell no (sorry Leigh)! The EC has issued by fiat an economic manifesto that they will be using a single currency etc. Now, as long as they all hang together and, get a little help from their friends they will, "make it so". For those EZ countries, the benefits of going along to get along economically far outweigh the sovereign fiat arguments. Is fiat of any stripe good as gold? No. Can one brand of fiat be made like another in quality and utility? My friend, the world is evolving right in front of our eyes.
auspec
(01/24/01; 18:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46362)
cb2
There will soon be a great demand for historians in the know re Hoover--- be ready! So zinc is not the most sanitary mkt, eh? Pretty interesting list of companies there. Your mention of CYCLES is the very reason that fortunes will be made in the longside of gold related investments VERY soon {not a time prediction, as only Job and a few others had more patience than I}. Nobody wants many of the exploration stocks now but as recently related by Paul van Eeden via fax, there is tons of activity in these companies! Many discoveries will be made that have little to do with the POG, money is made best by buying right. An example for general discussion {cb2 means 2 central banks and he knows more about mining than I ever will}: Not investment advice. One could look at a well run and capitalized Jr resource stock that is essentially a mutual fund for exploration. In current depressed market conditions they have at least 22 joint ventures going with major mining companies, meaning major interest in the props they have staked out with exploration funding by the majors. Market cap of company is about $75Canadian. This co was selling for $2.75C a week or so ago and now near $4C. You get your 22, or more as time/process continues, "chances" of major success. This company's stock sold as high as $25, with not nearly as much going, in the last bull mkt for explorers. The last mkt took a lot of stocks 5X, 10X, 25X or more and it will happen again because of CYCLES, right our Austrian US afficionado? I can start getting a bit excited when see capitulation in this mkt because of what follows. These are EXTREME times with the stocks, especially the explorers IMO, and the rewards are also likely to be extreme. Used to read about these stocks losing 90% or so of their value in late 80s to early 90s, but really couldn't fathom this historical fact. Not so hard now.
Am much more committed to your physical for 2001 because, other than what the Wiz shipped, was a bit underweighted. You are supposed to buy when things can't possibly get any worse, right? Those that are fortunate enough to enter our market in the near future have minimal downside and near unlimited upside potential. Stepping down from soapbox now.
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 18:15:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46361)
THE STRANGER
Yes, you are most correct. Although we have no
way of knowing when the game ends. One day it
will. But I'm afraid GOLD is going to be a long shot
for all most everyone unless you are connected to
inside information of the POWERS. In my opinion
this time is different than any past for gold. FOA is
so right about paper gold you can feel it in your
stomach. The worlds financial system is threated
by gold this time around like no other time. They will
not stop keeping gold in it's place until we reach
the poverty stage. By then all of us here will have sold and been taken out of our positions. Thats why few will ever
touch gold the risks are great. So don't bank on gold
most of us if not all will be crushed unless you are
completely debt free and have plenty to weather the storm.
Of coarse if you follow FOA on holding physical only.
Not many are going to be in a position to hold on.
We are not dealing with past gold markets just like
FOA refers to. Mining stocks will be the straw that breaks
the goldbugs back into poverty. IMHO
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 17:57:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46360)
REALLY !!!!!!!!!!!!
PANDAGOLD......Your no Rothchild and we don't
have what they have. They make the rules and kick
out those that play for real. Try selling options and
collect premiums. They knock you out so you can't
play by excersizing the option. I know I was making
lots doing it tell they started excersizing all my positions.
Making money on gold is not going to be like you think.
Trust me, you are already being defeated by the best.
When everyone loses their incomes and jobs and investors
are completely out ...gold will rise to the stars. Not till that
day arrives. Gold will be held down till that day arrives.
Mark my words gold will explode when everyone is completely broke including the mining companies.
FOA has that part right. Paper gold will be crushed
because nothing will stand in their way to keep the
price down. Of coarse there is always exceptions
but you are dealing with the greatest powers on
earth and the odds are way out of your favor.
You think you can make money on gold.......
THINK AGAIN.
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 17:50:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46359)
CoBra
Sorry (I know I should have gone to bed) But you will have to explain
<<No venom - Panda - though would you mind to translate
fair(i)ly - ccb2&3 >>
Sorry but I honestly do not understand
TheStranger
(01/24/01; 17:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46358)
Cavan Man, Revelation, Cobra and Sierra Madre
Cavan Man- That was me! I hope I haven't created a confusion.
Revelation - Those bargains you mention are all imports, are they not? Low import prices provided by an artificially high dollar might indeed signify conditions of disinflation were it not for the balooning trade deficit they've produced. There will be a day of reckoning. I would have no doubt about that if I were you.
Cobra - of all the world's great skiers, the Austrians inspire the most fear, and deservedly so. Still, we Utahns will be ready for you here in the home of the Greatest Snow on Earth! Let the Games begin!
Sierra Madre - I enjoyed reading your piece. I just wish I had the time to read more of what is posted here at the Forum. Your piece makes me wonder about how much I have missed. Thanks.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 17:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46357)
Thai Gold
Huh?
auspec
(01/24/01; 17:41:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 46356)
ThaiGold
Pxxxxxx = %
.
CoBra(too)
(01/24/01; 17:40:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46355)
@ Panda - It's CoBra ... and as it seems I'm an hour ahead ...
and therefor it's later than that and it's not the year of the snakes, but for the sake of keeping awake to follow the trail of some footsteps - I usually fail - to recognise the concise bootstraps, paralyze - as giants analyse - the over-size!
No venom - Panda - though would you mind to translate
fair(i)ly - ccb2&3
Trail Guide
(01/24/01; 17:10:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46354)
Comment
http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/jan24_placergold-cp.html
Hello Randy,
I'm working on a long discussion between us. At my place just above the trail head. Over wine, we will travel all the way back to around 610 BC, in the area of Lidia. This will be an easy read that lays out a broad position about gold. Who knows, we may even run thru a timeline and into a fella
our other posters have mentioned, Homer? (smile) Indeed, maybe the perceptions of gold by the ancients will prove to be the best position for anyone to be in, considering the nature of what is coming.
ALL,
Well, some paper gold bugs can't understand how a failing paper pricing system for gold can hurt their mine investments. Looks like this is only the beginning. How many HMs, MENs, HLs are next? Great days for physical gold advocates,,,,,,, awful days for players of gold substitutes, no?
Physical Gold,,,,,,, nothing else can compare!
-------------------
" " Placer Dome sees no hope of higher gold price, plans massive asset write downs " "
------TORONTO (CP) -- Seeing no prospect of a significant rise in the price of gold, Placer Dome Inc. (PDG:TSE) is reducing the accounting value of its gold reserves to $300 US an ounce from $325. The world's fifth-largest gold miner also cut its estimate of its proved and probable gold reserves by almost 30 per cent.-----------
------- In light of the reduced gold-price assumption, Placer Dome's proven and probable reserves decreased to 47 million ounces as of Dec. 31, down from 65.9 million ounces that were considered economically recoverable at the end of 1999.--------------
-----------The company said the volume of reserves would be cut by a further five per cent if the long-term price of gold fell to $275 US an ounce------------
------------In the meantime, "we are relentlessly pursuing cost-reduction initiatives and other measures in response to the business environment."---------------
CoBra(too)
(01/24/01; 17:01:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46353)
Zink, Cinque or as the Eye-talians say Chinque?! ...Not so...
... sorry Auspec, the Zink co., was founded by your Herbert Hoover and just came back from RTZ (the brink, naah!) to Rio Tinto (Zink)! ... and so is physical - I've always wondered why physical stands for gold only? - though we've heard about "good delivery", just as delivering paper only seems not as good ... as delivering reality - real physical 9.999 gold.
... Get physical (and, of course - it wouldn't be me unencumbered gold reserves/resources in the ground)and this is not much of a "revelation" (also welcome!), as I exchange my broccoli for energ; Not gold - (n)ever? cb2
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 17:01:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46352)
Revelation
There is just one point I must pick up on before I retire for the night. You say no one has made money from Gold. Well the Rothschild's didn't do too badly (they started by dealing in gold coins, and other pm's). Then there are people making a fortune with it now, I assure you - everyone's loss is someones gain in the financial markets.
One just has to be in the right trend.
One of the rules of trading is always deal in something that if you are stuck with it, you can live with it. Well, gold is so pretty, I can look at it all day. It has such a romantic past, a touch of the horrors occasionally, but that's what makes it interesting.
slingshot
(01/24/01; 17:01:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46351)
THE GOLDEN TRENCHES
This forum has been on the cutting edge in exchanging information concerning gold. Gives insight into the financial workings for those wishing to learn about investments. I can not pretend to grasp the frustration of those who have been in the golden trenches for years. Let me give you all something to think about. I am a newbie. One of many to follow. Why? When I talk to those who are in the stock market they comment more on their loses instead of their gains. They are just plain scared to get out and so ivest more into that TITANIC to save face. Goldbugs on the other hand are frustrated to the max about the price of gold being stagnated. HOW MANY MORE BULLETS DO THEY HAVE? Who cares! When they dump the gold we buy it. We have TIME and a simple Plan. We all know that the surface gold is finite. We know the CB's want to destroy gold as money but will not dump it all at once because they are afraid of the history behind gold and need to hedge their bet. We use this time to buy wealth. 1/10th 1/4, 1/2, 1oz. at a time we will push up the demand. I believe we have those CB's by the canasta's I am going to try and squeeze them 1/10th oz at a time till they say uncle. Look around you! Wards Pennys
Auto makers Unemployment, Fed cuts, Oil prices and how about your grocery bill?
Something has to give like a bullfrog that just ate a alka-seltzer. I am not going to wish i had gold when it goes to $800.00 like it did in 1981.
So I am in the GOLDEN TRENCH hunkered down. Waitingfor others to join with me as we go over the top when the price of gold is finnally free.
IS THAT BULLISH ENOUGH REVELATION?
slingshot
auspec
(01/24/01; 16:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 46350)
Capitulation
.
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 16:49:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46349)
Cobra (year of the snake?)
Your footnote has me at a loss. Did I complain about 'slow post'? What does that mean? The German I had no problem translating, but its meaning, especially with regard to any context in my post, is beyond me. It is late in my part of world, perhaps my brain is too tired, but you have me beat.
It's almost as bad as Thai Gold's riddle-me-re
Cavan Man
(01/24/01; 16:47:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46348)
Mr Gresham
My opinion is that a significant part of US dollar demand is derived from the oil settlement function internationally. If the Euro is accepted for oil settlement even in a "market basket" sense, I think the dollar would take a good lick.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/24/01; 16:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46347)
What perfect pitch are you waiting for before swinging the bat?
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
EVERYBODY wants to buy at the absolute best-bargain bottom, and to sell at the absolute top.
NOBODY can.
Nobody gets "the guaranteed homerun pitch". So, I ask you, "when is the pitch "good enough" for you to swing your bat?" Will you stand there forever still, wondering if you will ever quite grasp the rules of the game and be able to get on with enjoying your time spent "playing the larger game" (i.e., life)?
Know for yourself why you are standing there holding the bat...know what you are seeking to accomplish.
Paper currencies are merely units of account for the purpose of "keeping score" in the larger game of life. Those who have played well have a larger score to show for their efforts day to day, but a good score on one day does nothing to guarantee a successful season. Good teams play for "the trophy", not for the daily "score".
Surely you yourself do not play at your career to run up your "score". Rather, given time to think, you will acknowledge that you accept this payday score as merely an intermediate stage to meaningful physical ends...for the car, the house, the fine regular meals, etc. In this clear mind set, you will see that gold is the physical money that your currency "score" cannot possible be. To buy gold is to be mindful that you are in fact playing for the season trophy, and with it the real and greater wealth that is associated with such success.
Surely you have noticed that some wealthy men may flaunt or in turn take notice of their peer's PROPERTY, but no man of wealth gives serious mind to the "score" to be found in one's checking account. Again, they know a score can influence the joy only of today's game, but provides no guarantee for a successful season. Through spending your daily "scores" (represented by currency) to buy gold and other property representing real wealth, you can in fact lay early claim to pieces of that trophy during the mid-season. Why wait when you don't have to?!
Thanks to extraordinary market forces that have been thoroughly discussed here, you can "swing the bat" today and buy gold in the ballpark of this large 21-year dip in price. What other magical "price pitch" are you waiting for? If the paper-based price-discovery methods used for calculating spot gold result in lower prices, there is no guarantee that the physical gold market will cooperate with equal or lower premiums for delivery. In a physical supply/demand crisis, perhaps in conjunction with a derivatives crisis, the COMEX price for futures contracts will mean nothing when there are no physical gold sellers to meet demand.
Did you know that you can blithely pass up the opportunity at three perfect pitches and can thus strike out without ever swinging the bat? Sometimes the highest price is paid as a result of inaction.
Spring into action and resolve to give Centennial a call this week....because a good "score" is a terrible thing to let waste.
auspec
(01/24/01; 16:42:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46346)
Tree in the Forest
Safer Quarters Than Ft. Knox
Thanks for your input on our "national treasure". Does a safer place to keep gold include fingers, wrists, necks, and ankles of millions of Asians?
An interesting post by Christian #45494 says "all of the gold that was at FT Knox is now at 55 Water Street New York City". Is this the address of the NY FED? Journeyman {I believe} stated the gold is in Colo, NY, & Ft Knox. Most all agree has been "Watered" down considerably. Will appreciate any more FK input as this trail still smolders, if anyone has links to previous extensive discussion would be appreciated.
As far as who really cares, accepting that most in US don't,
I believe it is/will be quite important to other countries that still have prudent stocks of Au. The US Banana sooner or later has to come to grips with a near empty vault. The latest on James Turk, that I know, is that he is seriously reconsidering taking the Govt word for a secure national treasure. Seeing the govt statements regarding the ESF and gold "participation" puts a small dent in their credibility.
We should be hearing more from James T on this issue.
This is exactly why I am in total disagreement with Revelation and his advice to bail out of the gold related markets. The behind the scenes actions betray the "demonitization" of gold. Do you think all these lies, coverups, and nanipulations would go on in the zinc market {for example}? Not saying that zinc is an honest market, because I really don't know, but you may see the point. The desperation can be smelled across the ocean.
Wonder what took Randy & MK so long to figure out they could double the # of posters by just tossing in a little incentive?? Hope they have the goods this time so Gandalf doesn't have to come to the rescue again. Have ordered a stronger desk to withstand the weight of the golden vial the Wiz freighted this way. Thanks again most White Knight, can't help but smile each time I look at it.
Greatly enjoy all the new posters! Saw some poetry, humor, and great intellect. Maybe our gold "Shallow Tonsils" is among the crowd. Question........... Do you guys only post for prizes {I may have need of a few more mercenaries in the near future}? Gotta keep that talent flowing!
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 16:32:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46345)
THANKS COBRA, I feel better now
Although it's sounds very encouraging to stay long
I have a feeling the carnage is far from over. Our
only hope is the dollar goes to the trash bin. Any other
disaster would not benefit goldbugs. Hopefully and I
have been hoping too long is gold starts to rally and the
goldbull gets born and the dollar goes south to the center
of the earth. No nukes just nuke the dollar. If your mega long gold your rich. One of few..very few. Not good odds
but we wait and see. If your wrong over the next few years
your finances are trash. A big gamble
R Powell
(01/24/01; 16:30:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46344)
Forbes magazine article
from August 7, 2000 (p64) explains how a Thomas Kaplan. "an Oxford-educated historian turned hedge-fund consultant" believes he has found up to 470 million ounces of silver in the bolivian Andes. With help from George Soros among others, he has started Apex which went public in November of 1997. He's bought the land but still needs $300 million for trucks and equipment.
What I found interesting was in Kaplan bio, "While researching a PH.D. dissertation at Oxford on how British politics and the volatile rubber and tin markets shaped preindependence Malaysia, he noticed how soaring prices, which seemed always to take investors by surprise, were often preceeded by periods in which low prices bankrupted producers."
Perhaps, there is a clue here as to the timing of a higher price of gold and silver? I reread the article but found nothing about the price of broccoli which is on sale at our local A+P store this week. I agree with the Stranger: my daughter sweeps loose change out onto the ground when she cleans her car. She thinks it's funny that her dad picks it up and puts it in HIS pocket.
Laundry change is another lucrative business.
Concerning the discouraging words heard today, would you invest in something that required no carrying costs and would perhaps show a large return and possibly extremely large return but at some unknown time in the future. Obviously, don't use the mortgage money but perhaps a little of that money you were thinking of spending on ....?
or the other money that was just going to ....?
Natural gas? Then cocoa? Why not Gold?
Rich
JavaMan
(01/24/01; 16:24:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46343)
Hello, C. Tauri Re: your msg#: 46332...
Welome. Yes, yours is the correct path and a fine example.
ThaiGold
(01/24/01; 16:24:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46342)
The POG Answer...
http://www.scales-and-weights.com/scales/html/asian/opium10.htm
=====================================================================================
All:
Yesterday I posted that on today, after the close of markets, I would post a short
Answer to everyone's persistant Question: "When will the POG go UP.?."
Now, herein, is that promised post. The Answer for you. Some may be disappointed.
For it is not a date-certain. For that is not possible. Indeed, even foolish to try.
All I will tell you; show you; is what *exactly* to watch as a definitive indicator
and the precise predictor of POG movement. Up or Down. Or SideWays. Now, your Answer:
=====================================================================================
The POG (Price of Gold) will begin going UP, when The PFO begin going down.
=====================================================================================
PFO has Three Components:
(1) (Pxxxxxx Fxxx Oxx)
(2) (Pxxxxxx Fxxx Oxxxx)
(3) (Pxxxxxx Fxxx Oxxxxxxxxx)
Once you learn realize what they are, you can forcast, by yourself, the POG direction.
Your Quest then, for that knowledge will begin today. Your assignment. Your homework.
Like any good Teacher/Student, I will not give you the answer directly. You alone must
discover and learn this truth for yourself. Only then will you understand and believe.
In this post I shall only give a starting point. A clue. A hint.
It is an image. A picture. Of a scale. I'd planned on linkimg to an image of the
very familiar "Godess of Justice". She, blindfolded, holds under one arm, the book
of Law. And in her other hand, the "Scale of Justice". Somewhat appropriate.
The hint is to consider POG in the right Balance, and the PFO in the left Balance.
But I couldn't find that image. In time for this post. Luckily instead, I found an
even more appropriate Scale image. A better clue. To one of the PFO components.
Klik on the link above to see it... To begin your enlightenment.
And from that, eventually you will reach your exact answer of "When will POG go UP?"
It's as simple as that.
Now I am going to sit back for awhile and let all you Knights, Lurkers, and Ladies
of this RoundTable do some thinking. For yourself. For a change. Get off the beaten
Trail. Go off into the forest, hills, mountains and meadows on your own. Fresh air.
Fresh insights. Fresh thinking. Your Vision Quest will require you to strip off all
your old concepts. Do not be afraid. For even Emporers, often have no clothes.
Once at the pinnacle bare all. Be free. Feel the Freedom. Of ultimate Knowledge.!.
I have done so. Upon a swift pony. Barebacked. Then afoot. Barefoot. Obtaining BareFact.
For many years I have tried thinking the olds ways. Lost mush money. None worked. In
this new era. But now I see. The truth. And it has set me free. To sleep alot better.
You can do it too. It's easy. I guarantee it.
Now it's time for you get on with your Vision Quest. I shall step aside and only watch
and listen as you discuss it amongst yourselves. Ask questions. Share your discoveries.
What have you to lose.?. Nothing else has given you the answer. The right answer.
Seek, and you will find. Trust me.
Cordially,
ThaiGold
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
=====================================================================================
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 16:16:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46341)
YES, I UNDERSTAND ALL YOUR FEELINGS
And I know gold looks cheap but I'm afraid it might
go cheaper. I guess I'm being difficult but I only
report the facts. My point is when I see the bargains
and fire sales out there, I can't see any potential with
gold. Not to say it can't rally some, but it just can't go
too far unless we have a real world disaster. The dollar
is the key and that could come like a thief in the nite.
Like Germany 1923 they said there was no warning
when hyperinflation took center stage. No one knew
it was possible, so anything can happen. But I would
like better arguments and evidence from posters as
to the case of being long. Seems like we as gold investors
have been cursed. Just facts, nothing more or less.
CoBra(too)
(01/24/01; 16:16:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46340)
Cycle Analysis!
By Mr. Notely, one the most respected in his trade - and probable, not for the AU-purists-, though still interesting has recommended a portfolio og gold stocks in Nov. 00 and has the following to say: Snip -sans technicals:
" Gold stocks are moribund, forlorn, forgotten and dismissed from portfolio management consideration. Gold stock indices are more oversold than at any time in their 60 yr. history.
A very strong accumulation condition has developed in the Precious Metals Markets.
A once in a lifetime opportunity is quietly and subtly (I would add stealthly) unfolding. We are now witnessing early relative outperformance (well, not in the last 2 days, so what). We have a bottom juncture signal that is bringing together of all trend structures - Secular, long term, intermediate and short term Trend. It is the most powerful signal for stock/price accumulation in our market discipline. The last time this signal occurred for the general market was August 1982-DJI 770!" - unsnip
.... And at the last time the media titled, "Death of Equity Investment!" ... Today, almost a generation later investment in the barbaric metal, gold is obsolete ... You've got to love it... Seriously, I hope you do, too - cb2
PS: Hello Stranger - long time no talk - great post, though please refer to other produce - broccoli - overheated or not, excessively created (or even gratinated)alternate greens may get me back to "Vogerlsalat" -is not my particular favorite green vegetable, or is that why you've mentioned it... cheers, anyway and hope you'll be watching the Arlberg (StAnton event) to get a feeling of the Austrian avalanche coming to your neighborhood soon.
PPS: SLATT - welcome to any plagiarism as it may be already secondhand - though really - welcome again.
PPPS: Pandagold, didn't you mention you've been a teacher? ... and you've been complaining about slow posting, well Sir, please try to translate a comment one of Austria's (yes, we have a life outside of A'Our-Economists) Novelists couldn't help to state at a teachers convention in the old Hofburg (Emperors Palace in Vienna):
Ich habe den Saal schon voller gesehen,
ich habe ihn auch schon leerer gesehen,
aber so voller Lehrer,
habe ich ihn noch nie gesehen!"
Not intended to discourage you in any way, only Sir Panda (-Chinese Panda coins have done great for me since inception, bullion cum numismatic) as lectures have their place and so have discussions.
PPPPS: Randy - we'll have to build a tower - high enough to give credit to your achievements - thank you and hopefully MK has elevated you to the order of the golden fleece - or
I(j)ason of the Argonauts - the parallel Saga of Ilias and oddyssey.
ThaiGold
(01/24/01; 16:14:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46339)
$275 Gold is not what I consider "UP"
Attn: REVELATION (01/24/01; 15:16:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46329)
To REVELATION:
PS: In my Contest Prediction, I guessed "$275.00" POG.
In the context of what you wrote, and what I just wrote, let
me say that I don't consider $275 as "UP". No Sir. I consider
that as Languishing, within it's currently manipluated "range".
Just a mild upwards tick, probably short-lived.
But I'm still looking to find more of my errant examples.
=============================================
To ALL: (Especially you, Pandagold):
My much (?) awaited "The POG Answer" post, promised for
today, is indeed forthcoming, on the press, ink drying as I now
write. Had I not been distracted by REVELATION, it would
have been posted by now. (and no, I'm not ReWriting any of it)
ThaiGold
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 16:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46338)
Ah Sir ThaiGold
So you are here. Did I not understand you were to disclose the direction of gold - or when it will move, at the close of business today. I am waiting, waiting, waiting
Though don't tell me if it will give me a sleepless night.
Cor Tauri
(01/24/01; 16:03:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46337)
BARGAINS EVERYWHERE!!!!!!
Yes, that was my point, but I think you missed it.
I hope you find whatever it is that you want.
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 16:00:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46336)
WHERE IS "THAIGOLD"
Are we going to hear more of the same ?????????
It would be nice to see someone with some solid
evidence to make a bullish case for GOLD.
Like wishing for the toothfairy, it's not going to
happen.
Back to the real world.
BARGAINS EVERYWHERE!!!!!!
Mr Gresham
(01/24/01; 16:00:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46335)
Cavan Man
The Euro. Yes, I forgot the Euro. My first thought on that is that I don't know what to do with the Euro. I was impressed when we saw that it had taken up 40-something % of new debt issuance in its first year. And of course, it's recent price recovery makes big psychological lift against the dollar propaganda machine.
As a variable in our (non-existent) equations, it could work both ways: It creates doubt about, and an alternative to, the dollar. But it also requires the international fiat world to hold back gold so Euro has a chance to insert itself as far as possible into dollar's role.
Euro has always been the "I don't have to outrun the bear; I just have to outrun you" story. So Euro stands aside during my "Stage 1 and Stage 2" meltdowns (are there any Comex/LBMA type markets in Euros? or just private OTC contracts?). And at least holds its own with dollars during a US hyperinflation as costs of oil and basic resources move through the GDP.
Oro has given us some basic reasons to doubt Europe's ability to fully exploit dollar's downfall, but again "outrunning" the dollar might not take much...
International currency dealings are something we are all pretty novice at, especially a new currency, but we're learning along with a lot of pros, and ahead of 99.9% of the public (lotta good that'll do us at the grocery store, huh?)
ThaiGold
(01/24/01; 15:59:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 46334)
Freudian Slip.?.
Attn: REVELATION (01/24/01; 15:16:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46329)
Attn: REVELATION (01/24/01; 15:16:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46329)
In your post (above reference) you wrote:
[quote]
For 2 years and running gold believers and promoters
analysts on gold sites have all been wrong claiming
to know the direction of gold. Now and then you have
new posters claiming to know gold is going up soon.
Thaigold is a good example not just on this site but
others posting under different handles as well
[unquote]
Your mention of my (only) handle caught my eye. And bye the
way, I'm not a "new poster". Just an overlooked poster.
Perhaps you somehow miswrote (or I'm mis interpreting what
you wrote) that I have been forcasting POG to go up. Myself
do not feel that has been the case (recently). But I may be
wrong. What (posts of mine) do you feel justifies saying that.?.
I feel most in this forum would liken me to a contrarian at best,
and not necessarily incesantly predicting imminent upward
movement of the POG. POS maybe, for sure, but not POG.
If POS jumps dramatically then it could/would surely pull POS
upwards with it. But that's not been my primary focus.
Silverf has far different fundamentals going for it than Gold. It
(POS) should not be overlooked as one of the best investment
possibilities of our lifetime, at its current savaged price. So, I
urge you to take another look. Dig deeper. Lest you be left
behind.
Cordially
ThaiGold
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 15:57:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46333)
Revelation
While your post if very sobering, if only because we see another believer joining the ranks of the non -believers.
Your message is only an echo of what we have had to endure for quite too long. I can understand how you feel, and a lot of what is said I can accept.
The part that really worries me is that I feel that 'the world' disaster, that you feel would be needed for gold to glitter is a very high possibility.
I posted something yesterday under 'My old Gran'in which I tried to temper the very serious message, and my reasons for
believeing in the high possibility (probability).
Of course, this is not what we, or anyone wants.
However, failing any huge world economic distaster - though each day we approach the circumstances that increase the possibility, I still feel that gold, as a mere commodity, has been oversold for political reasons, and will recover sufficiently to make quality mining shares, at current prices, a good investment.
Cor Tauri
(01/24/01; 15:54:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46332)
REVELATION DIS-ENCHANTMENT
To INVEST in gold might well be folly. And those that feel that gold will increase their wealth are probably feeling the same 'enchanment' as those who still invest in internet companies. The seductive desire to get great wealth with out work, it pulls at my mind also sometimes.
But gold is not about investment, perhaps even paper gold would be better for investing or gambling.
I buy gold to save what wealth I have. I work, at a job, a crummy job at that, to increase my wealth.
I shall never be rich, my job dosn't pay very much. But I will likely never be destitute either. I save. My employer pays me more than my living expenses. And the surplus I save. Someone of my skill and background is probably worth about one ounce of silver a month, as a historical average. But I can get much much more than that now, at least for a while. So I do. I keep what currency I expect to need as a cushion against surprise expenses. The rest I use to buy gold and silver.
I don't ever expect to sell my gold for a profit. Never!
I hope never to sell it at all but give it to my sons. It is SAVINGS, and I am driven to it by FEAR that the numbers in my passbook savings account though large enough now, might through no action on my part be not large enough later. I fear currency devaluation.
I owe nothing, I have no debts. I expect no great increase from anything other than my own labor. And I save in the currency of my country (and the world, for now) and silver, and yes, I save in gold.
And I am content.
Best Regards
Peter Asher
(01/24/01; 15:46:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46331)
goldfan (01/24/01; 14:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46324)
Nooooooo!!!!!!!
Re- >>>>It seems you think there is no or little risk in owning US $ paper securities,<<<<
*I* don't think that. I consider THEY do!
When I said "the markets have spent twenty-one months now above and below a flat-line median. The Dow, for instance, has a line right through the 10,600 level, and at the moment swings a bit above and below in an orderly fashion. Consider how much stock is now in the hands of recent owners who are more or less even." I was looking at the 401-K et-al group as being in a locked in mentality by being coaxed into continuous investment over the past twenty one months. The volume over that period has been up 50% yet the chart pattern is an elongated horizontal diamond. This is the world of investors out there who don't cut their losses and so stay in for the "long haul." I'm suggesting that AG and the PPT have so managed to keep the herd well off from the thunder and lightening and have averted the stampede. (So far)
These folks put ‘everything' into the market. We collected an $850.00 retainer Saturday and they asked us to hold the check until they could sell some mutual fund shares to cover it.
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 15:44:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46330)
DISINFLATION in many goods and services
For example I live in California and went to Millers Outpost
a clothing retailer and could not believe the bargains in
apparel. $3.00 for a name brand sport shirt and this
was not a t-shirt but a nice heavy material shirt. This is
only one example of many where prices are way down.
Another example is Reebok mens leather tennis shoes for
$21.00. I have never seen things so cheap. I could go on
and on. Lets face it I think people hear are not reporting
all the facts. The bargains are everywhere. Energy
is another issue and I think this could be a catalyst for gold
but not with bargains like I see abound. It's no wonder
gold can't rally. Those sitting behind computers all day
just don't know the real world and making bold predictions
about gold. It's a big world out there and if you can still find
bargains like what I'm seeing don't expect too much from gold. Your bullish arguments are flawed. People will turn to
gold when money can't buy anything anymore. Not
to say it can't happen but things are not looking up for gold.
It's a hard sell with bargains everywhere. Just reporting the
facts.
REVELATION
(01/24/01; 15:16:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46329)
DIS-ENCHANTMENT (The Facts)
For 2 years and running gold believers and promoters
analysts on gold sites have all been wrong claiming
to know the direction of gold. Now and then you have
new posters claiming to know gold is going up soon.
Thaigold is a good example not just on this site but
others posting under different handles as well. Up
until now everyone of them have been dead wrong.
GATA can also be included and have done nothing
to help the price of gold. My point is for anyone listening
to these analysts are commiting financial suicide. Like
others I have put too many golden eggs in my basket
and becoming a poor popper over the years. Living
costs keep increasing and I'm falling way behind in a
substantial way. You would think a rally would develop
in a meaningful way because everyone in the investment
world is so negitive on the metal and 20 year lows if not
500 year lows adjusting for inflation. This is really a nightmare for anyone who has invested in gold related
assets in a meaningful way. You can go back 5 years/
10 years/15 years/ and all of these investors are out
of luck in a big way. If you were to choose any investment
this ranks way below the worst of the worst. Call it extreme
bad luck or is someone up there don't like us. To be honest
it looks bad going forward for gold. The fact remains gold is NOT a hedge and is not anything but a losing investment.
As insurance it's good, but very little is the best bet. Like
one analyst says "gold needs to prove itself and stay above
$325 for 3 months or more. Otherwise the odds are stacked
againest you. It's not in public interest for gold to rally. No
one wants to lose their job and no one is going to defend gold. I have been a goldbug but looks like I need to look
at it from a completely different angle. I read parts of the
book "THE POWER OF GOLD" by Peter Bernstein and
in the very last chapter he states gold has worked directly
againest those who have invested in it in a big way. Most
of not all through out history gained only misery from being
heavily invested in the metal. This was Peters finally feeling
on gold that it brought it's owners no happiness in the end.
This is exactly how I feel. Yes, buy gold but only a small percentage of your wealth. Anything else is a perscription
disaster and misery. Play at your own risk and remember
the facts. Not many slip through and make money on gold.
You can find many millionaires and not one is going to tell
you they got rich in gold. Goldbugs need to find other
interests and wiegh out your decisions before buying more gold. Sorry, but the facts are not false but true. I have
a hard time with it myself but I need to try harder to seek
out other opportunities besides gold. Wish you all luck
and hope you can find great opportunities in the future.
Don't get me wrong I still like gold because it's been overlooked, but how long will it be before they decide to
let the price rise. Could be a very long time and will it
be nuclear war before it responds. I don't know but it
sure looks terrible for gold unless we have a world
disaster that will affect life as we know it. Then us goldbugs
will never be able to enjoy it. So, before you take the
plunge remember gold has no friends. Just look at the
facts and read the Power of Gold because it sure opened
my eyes.
Sierra Madre
(01/24/01; 15:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46328)
The U.S. "Budget Surplus"....some thoughts for your consideration.
Last few years we've been receiving our brainwashing about the great U.S. Budget Surplus and how the National Debt was going to be paid down in a few years. Totally amazing prospect of unending prosperity!
First of all, with regard to that mythical surplus, we have to take into account that a considerable part of the tax-money coming into the Treasury, was produced by Capital Gains taxes on rising values of stocks. As is now evident, taxes from that source are going to be sharply down next April 15th. Stocks are not rising, nor do we - at this Forum especially - expect them to rise substantially, if at all, for quite some time.
Incidentally, these Capital Gains were produced by: Inflation. There has been, and continues to be, a tremendous inflation, caused by Credit Expansion. Not only an increase in money in circulation causes a general rise in prices. A general rise in prices can be caused by a Credit Expansion, which the U.S. has had in spades. Read: prudentbear.com, about the Credit Expansion. And Von Mises, about the effects of credit expansion not based on savings.
As good old Vern Myers used to point out in his excellent newsletter twenty years ago, Credit Expansion is like a forming cloud, which grows and grows. Eventually, it cannot grow any further. Precipitation begins. Rain begins to fall. That rain can be likened to either the default of debtors, in which case the creditors (buyers of bonds, etc) lose out and they pay the debt with their loss; or else, the cloud comes down in the form of: hyperinflation caused by the desperate attempt to liquefy debt with mass monetization, i.e., cash is manufactured and delivered for debt instruments in an attempt to stave off default. But that cash is deadly, in that it immediately becomes demand for goods: runaway prices of things. In this case too, the creditors lose out big, as their money shrinks drastically in purchasing power. The debt is paid by the creditors. In both cases, the debtors cannot pay the debt, since they are bankrupt. To some extent, to the extent of their capital investment, the debtors of course, also pay part of the debt, but they cannot, by any means, cover all of it to make their creditors whole.
But to return to the theme of Budget Surplus.
So part of the Budget Surplus was the result of a monstrous Credit Expansion, which produced a rather painless tax revenue from Capital Gains, paid willingly by people who thought it right to pay a tax on part of their very substantial "profits" in the Stock Market. That is now gone, and its return is very, very doubtful.
Another part of the tax revenue has been coming from Social Security taxes. Instead of attributing the moneys coming in for Social Security to a Social Security Fund, the U.S. Gov't has mixed this tax revenue with general tax revenue, and simply creates bonds which are passed on to the S.S. Fund. (Did you see the movie "Dumb and Dumber"? "It's all there, every last penny, yes Sir!")
This is why the Federal Debt continues to grow - these S.S. Fund bonds are issued, and form part of the "Non-marketable U.S. Debt".
So these Funds, we might say filched from Social Security, are counted as Tax Revenue and contribute to reducing the Deficit and producing that mythical "Surplus". But at the same time, the Federal Debt grows by that filched amount.
But there is still another source of Government Spending, very important, which is not, however, included under Federal Spending. This hidden government spending is paid for by BORROWING MASSIVELY. Where you say? The Federal Debt is not going up that much?
That Government Spending is being carried out without causing much concern, through the absolutely enormous increases in Borrowing and Spending by: the Federally Guaranteed Government Sponsored Enterprises, the GSEs like Freddy Mac, Ginnie Mae and other silly-sounding gigantic financial organization which have taken over a very substantial part of the mortgage market in the U.S., due to their real (or perceived) Government Guarantee, which makes their debt a proxy for Government Bonds. See: Prudentbear.com for the horrible facts.
The GSEs are monetizing their debt, by placing it in "Money Market Funds". These Funds accept the "paper" or debt of the GSEs without question, as Federally guaranteed, and credit the GSEs for their I.O.U.s with credit balances at their Money Market accounts. Thus enormous increases in Money Market funds which people suppose are Dollars. These "Money Market Funds" are not really Dollars, from the banking system. They are confused with those Dollars, but really another "money" which people accpet unquestioningly. Who wouldn't like to have a few million in a "Money Market Account"? You buy a house for a couple of million, what's the seller going to do with a couple of million? He's going to put it in his Money Market Account, just where you got the money to pay him.
Once you are dealing with big enough figures, when you spend a "Money Market Account" balance, it is most likely that the amount you "spend" will simply find its way to another "Money Market Account". And so the game goes on. I leave it to another, to describe what happens when Money Market Fund assets begin to go sour because debtors - issuers of commercial paper - cannot make good. Or when the rise in interest rates destroys the capital of the GSEs, and the insurers or investors in interest rate derivatives, meant to protect the GSE borrowings, go belly up, or the U.S. Government has to BAIL OUT THE GSEs. That will be a show!
If you add up the Federal Debt, with the debt of the GSEs, and add up on the other side, Tax Income and the Income of the combined GSEs, you will have a sum - which I have not calculated - which will surely knock your socks off.
THAT is the real fiscal situation: no Budget Surplus, rather, a totaly outlandish Budget Deficit, financed with massive government borrowing via the GSEs, which are off-budget.
Now, these GSEs are into mortgages, long-term loans by definition. When you see the yield on the 30-year Treasury Bond begin to grow, you will know that the present value of the mortgages is decreasing - according what is known as the "Bond Equation": an increase in yield on a bond means a reduction in its present value.
The GSEs have been working with razor thin margins and lending to ever less credit-worthy mortgagees. When the GSE assets shrink, they will destroy all their capital and we will have a situation incomparably worse, disastrously worse that the situation with the S&Ls.
The Fed can contain, to a certain extent, short-term rates, but it can do absolutely nothing about long-term rates, the rates that are going to kill the GSEs.
Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show! It is going to be historic.
"If this be error, and upon me proved,
I never wrote, nor is my name
Sierra Madre"
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 14:59:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46327)
goldfan.....
Great posts!
goldfan
(01/24/01; 14:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46326)
Peter Asher msg 46284
Sir Peter my apologies I think I may have misattributed the fine story of the odyssey as the saga of gold to Sir ET instead of yourself. Maybe the rest of my messsage to him, (msg. 46324 just precedes this one) should also have been directed to you?
Hoping to hear from you to clear this up
Goldfan
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 14:53:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46325)
John Doe: continuing to read the story........
Or in my case watching the movie.....Kirk Douglas (gold) reveals the truth and thus hope to his son (a disgruntled investor). Both take up arms to confront the The Suitors (the global conspiracy against gold). After a bloody battle (fiat fraud exposed) in which "The Suitors" were vanquished (central banks eliminated) and Kirk Douglas and son restore honor and legitimacy to the kingdom (the return to the gold standard). The long suffering Queen (taxpayers) vows to never let Kirk Douglas (gold) leave again!
goldfan
(01/24/01; 14:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46324)
(No Subject)
Sir ET greetings
On your msg. Usagold 46210 I was delighted with your retelling of the Odyssey as the saga of Gold and I have a question about your preamble re the markets.
It seems you think there is no or little risk in owning US $ paper securities, unless they are gold derivatives. What about the pronouncements of FOA and ORO and Noland, et al on the huge debt, asset, and derivative bubbles threatening today's dollar to the point it may well be extinguished in purchasing power?
My friends and neighbours certainly don't entertain any apocalyptic visions such as this. They seem to fall more in line with your thinking. But, I see that they are all stretched to the maximum with debt and consumption addictions, big mortgages, and savings if any only in mutual funds, no cash or gold. Do you think ORO's and Noland's analyses of our economic situation are incorrect? Do you believe we are going to coast on into the future, with little or no economic upheaval? If so, how are the debts of years of the 10% per year increases in the M3, going to be mopped up by a trade deficit economy whose GNP can't possibly grow by more that 2-4% per year?
I ask in the spirit of earnest enquiry, wondering on what you base your apparent optimism?
Goldfan
goldfan
(01/24/01; 14:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46323)
My story of "the Odyssey of Gold"
In Homer's telling of that ancient tale, Odysseus and his companions took great risks to travel to new places, teaching us the value of heroic journeys.
When we are born it is that we are willing to risk a journey into an unknown world, because the womb-world we are in is becoming suffocatingly small, a certain death if we stay there much longer.
Something similar there is in the soul of gold, that wishes to travel from deep in the earth, to the surface world.
Those old citizens of other countries, other times, knew they could die of deprivation, of war, of bad weather, unless they had small store of gold to insure their survival. Every day their lives, they knew, were at risk to stay where they were, which risk they could reduce by saving a little gold whenever possible.
Now we know that as humans we are impelled by our inner daemons always to strive to escape the confines of whatever our present "womb", whatever that is, and seek a greener, more expansive place. We are impelled to take risks to get to a new place. Yet we are simultaneously driven to keep ourselves safe, to avoid uncertainty and the prospect of loss. How we resolve these twin tensions of life, determines our fate and our story.
Recently, I had a dream. >>>Some gold coins had melted into a puddle, a lump of unshaped gold.<<< What I get from this, is that the odyssey of gold is to be seized from the earth by mankind, to be shaped into whatever talisman of wealth we conceive, fine art, or coins decorated by emperors' faces. Yet even this ultimate in indestructible matter is subject to the whims of fate, its final shape beyond my control.
Ultimately, in owning gold, I own no more than in owning my own life. From deep in the earth, I came to this place for a brief time, to pass on only my spirit to the future. So it is in the odyssey of gold, not its shape or its value, only its spirit indestructible as the metal, travels into the future. As in owning gold, a person who owns their own soul, risks nothing, and may gain much.
FWIW
Goldfan
goldfan
(01/24/01; 14:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46322)
Sir Gandalf's Free Gold
My most effervescent thnaks Sir Gandalf for the vial of free gold I received from your alchemical laboratory. I keep it in an honored place in full view to remind me that miracles are always possible. Once again I thankyou!!
Goldfan
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 14:36:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46321)
Take Heart
Now this may not appear of much interest, or significance at first glance, but if you spend a little time and thought to reflect you may conclude differently.
We are being led to believe, by media, and pundits, that gold is dead. The mining industry has taken everything that could be thrown at it, and then some. This has also gone on for a very long time. It is hard to imagine a worse case scenario for any industry for, at least, a decade.
Yet there is resilience, and measures have been taken to keep going because there has been belief that, one day, things will turn around. The history of gold is too long, Gold has stood the test of time. Gold is unique, and there is a certain finite quality to supply.
This adversity the industry has faced has caused them to take measures that will eventually benefit them (these benefits are already being felt). They are becoming leaner, and meaner. They are expanding, in particular, by amalgamation, and takeovers. The strong are absorbing the weak.
Once they arrive at an economical cost of production. The rest is profit, and this can rise dramatically once the gold price increases.
Investors know that by tradition and nature of the industry, mines return a large percentage of the profits as dividends - which is really what true investing is all about.
So, here we are, one of the largest North American mines that has just taken over a once leading mine, Battle Mountain, that had been hit hard, an in spite of the gold's supposed weak prospects ( and price) is able to start paying dividends,
And if the above alone doesn't convince you, think about this 'THEY'fear it! You don't fear something that is a mere commodity
Therefore, I say, take heart. Our day will come.
Attention Business Editor:
Newmont Mining Declares Regular Quarterly Dividends
DENVER, Jan. 24 /CNW/ -- The Board of Directors of Newmont Mining
Corporation (NYSE: NEM) today declared regular quarterly dividends of:
-- $0.03 per share on its common stock, payable March 21, 2001 to holders
of record at the close of business on March 6, 2001.
-- $0.8125 per share on its convertible preferred stock, payable
February 15, 2001 to holders of record at the close of business on
February 5, 2001.
Newmont Mining is one of the world's largest gold producers.
Cavan Man
(01/24/01; 13:54:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46320)
Lafisrap, Gresham
You're forgetting about the ongoing negotiations for the Euro to settle (perhaps in a basket) oil internationally. That is the catalyst. That is the key.
John Doe
(01/24/01; 13:42:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46319)
@ Peter Asher
Excellent Odyssey.
Just one small addition:
Odysseus (Gold) returns to Ithaca and, disguising himself as a beggar (demonetized), heads for his palace. Upon his return after 20 year, only his dog, Argos (the mostly hedged mining industry), recognizes him, and the dog dies after waiting 20 years to see his master again.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 13:41:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46318)
Mr Gresham, ....and also TheStranger
Mr Gresham, I absolutely agree with you regarding the insurance rationale for buying gold, it alone has allowed me to sleep soundly for the past few years, especially while my contemporaries are sweating bullets and trading their Nasdaq and DJIA paper with increasing urgency until they have to pull out of the market due to insolvency. They have never seriously looked at gold! And until the herd runs to gold they never will consider it! Indeed, they deride the very concept of owning gold! I now listen with an attitude of concern, I feel their pain! I'm also tired of being the object of their amusement by my belief in a true gold standard.
My experience overall with real estate in the US in the last two years is that actual sale prices are generally weaker, and housing starts are currently plummeting. I would be very cautious in real estate, that tide is going out, not coming in.
The Stranger: Don't look for any help from the Bush administration in checking the effect of inflation on the price of broccoli. Like his father, with his cabinet, GW.....HATES BROCCOLI!!!!
Mr Gresham
(01/24/01; 13:20:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46317)
Lafisrap: FOA/Another scenario
Thanks for keeping us aiming this way.
Sometimes I just mull this over at odd moments (driving, shower, boring meeting) trying to get the hyrdraulic pieces of this puzzle put together -- "what pushes on what, and makes what else go where?"
If we take the various components of FOA's forecasts as contributing to the "new market price", it now constellates in my mind as looking like a three-stage rocket. (Possibly more stages, and intertwining effects, but for now try this:)
(Stage 1) LBMA/Comex breakdown (how? -- what signs show up first?) gives first stage (to 600? 1000? sounds like FOA thinks more) as physical becomes the only game in town to absorb gold buyers' interest.
(Stage 2) Foreign US dollar cashing in, both by CBs and investors holding cash balances, stock and treasuries, buying physical as still underweighted -- where else to dump dollars quickly? A bit of sellers' panic among those not dollar-indoctrinated from birth, like USAmericans. This maybe doubles-triples (2000-3000?) the prices from Stage 1.
(Stage 3) US hyperinflation in all goods reflects dollar over-"printing" and cashing out of all markets: stocks, debt, and real estate. US buyers' panic takes gold over several years to a sellable excess value. (Ahhhh -- the "retirement years".)
Stages 1 & 2 "catch us up suddenly with previous wealth value" (paraphrasing FOA) and Stage 3 is protection from the hyperinflation in Stagflationary times. In other words, 1 & 2 are relative increases in our investments' purchasing power, and #3 holds it while most others be losing theirs.
Have I got the scenario close?
Sequences might be different, or intermixed.
Numbers might be applied to each, both in volumes of dollars sloshing around and proportions moving into gold (Oro? famous for wonderful extrapolations, maybe someday this exercise will present itself to you). (Gold prices are more meaningfully observed as proportional moves from stage to stage, than arithmetic moves.)
And mechanisms, such as LBMA/Comex "seizing up" and Fed attempts at monetizing debt instruments might be explored to give us some inflection points or launch points for each stage.
This is my attempt to visualize FOA's scenario, since it represents such a strange wrenching out of current financial "wisdom". A 10x move is explainable; a 100x move needs more support, and pieces to fit the puzzle. An understanding of mechanisms and a cash flow model for this to happen, are what I need to work on next.
Anyone take a go at filling it in?
TheStranger
(01/24/01; 12:39:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46316)
Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent
I heard on the news this morning that produce prices are set to rise as a result of the California power outages. It's funny, when I starting posting about the return of inflation in these pages two years ago, I had no idea where it would crop up first. I also didn't know the order in which prices for various commodities would begin to rise. All I knew was that the Fed had begun to create money at a reckless pace and that higher prices would inevitably result.
It has been an education watching things unfold. Excess money creation overheated the economy. The overheated economy put a strain on energy resources. And now, strained energy resources are threatening even the price of broccoli. Soon, higher broccoli prices, along with higher prices for a whole lot of other things, will no doubt pressure workers to demand higher wages as an offset to their loss of purchasing power.
By now, the Fed has had its chance to reverse this looming monster. It could have curtailed the growth of money, stopping reinflation dead in its tracks. But the incredible burst of money creation over the past two months is clear evidence they have chosen not to. The price in terms of unemployment and spreading corporate and personal bankruptcies was evidently considered too much to bear.
The real insanity behind all of this, of course, is the manner in which so many on Wall Street, a majority, in fact, refuse to connect the inflation dots. Like a new bull market, it seems, low inflation has a thousand paramours. Yet, like a new bear market, the recent return of inflation has been met all around with scorn and disbelief. Each day, the media report to us on the burgeoning cost of energy. Only last week, we were told that the year 2000 CPI scored its biggest increase in a decade. Yet the same news sources just as regularly remind us there is no inflation in the United States, today.
How long can this insanity go on? I obviously do not know. I made my bets on inflation two years ago. At the time, the dollar was under threat not of INflation, but of DEflation. But the seeds of change were in the wind.
Two years on, those seeds have sprouted all around. If only people would connect the dots.
Old Yeller
(01/24/01; 12:29:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46315)
Sorry,wrong number
Whoops,I screwed up'sorry about that.Latest commentary can be found on the home page,entitled;The Bear Market Rally Is Over.
Old Yeller
(01/24/01; 12:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46314)
Ammo inventory estimate
http://www.safehaven.com/GB-GIC/GIC012401.html
Hmmm,looks like Mr.Bugos sees some brighter days ahead for honest money.
Mr Gresham
(01/24/01; 12:03:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46313)
SLATT & others: (A Brief) Reflection on Patience
We come, most of us, to our gold interest in a time of stock mania, when the myth of easy gains drives our neighbors, friends, and families into a greedy anxiety about "missing out."
The reality is that the typical stock peaked in April 1998, and has been in decline since (Advance/Decline line). Only the mathematical weightings of a few giants have kept the indexes churning near previous highs. Churning, as in DISTRIBUTION to those little suckers coming along to buy the mania with their life savings or on their credit histories.
We all catch some of that fever, as we all want our investments to "go up". "It's OUR turn now."
But I would put it to you that, with statistical significance, NO major category of investment has gone up in the past three years but real estate, and those are gains most of us can cash in only by selling our homes at the peak.
Gold has been as profitable a holding as any (flat), and has "paid an insurance dividend" the entire time, especially after the late-1998 derivatives breakdown first warning. Better three years early than a day too late.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/24/01; 12:02:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46312)
Amendment to the Contest Summary post
Careful reinspection inspired by pointing fingers from the gathering at hand reveals that my original tally overlooked a timely entry. It is with pleasure and satisfaction that I now see this early evidence of my friend's participation by the light of day:
JavaMan (1/20/2001; 13:51:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46003)
>>>======= $264.90 ========>
So joined.
Peter Asher
(01/24/01; 12:00:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46311)
Since Panda says it's a bit quite,
(Post contest burnout, Panda.)
Here, in it's entirety,this pertinent article from Newsmax
Bush's Education Plan
Neal Boortz
January 24, 2001
President George W. Bush unveiled his education plan yesterday. It includes annual testing of students
and the school-voucher option.
Predictably, as soon as he presented the plan, the teachers' unions started to whine. The National
Education Association said the proposal was "sure to divide us...The plan unveiled today relies on a
failed political gimmick." The executive director of the National Association of Secondary School
Principals called the voucher proposal a "silver bullet" solution.
Should we be surprised? Of course not. Teachers' unions aren't interested in giving students the best
possible education. They're interested in protecting jobs and getting bigger salaries for union members,
including those who deserve to be fired. And many teachers are absolutely opposed to any measure of
teaching performance, because that would expose their shortcomings.
Bush's education plan would allow parents to pull their kids out of failing schools. That would mean
fewer students in government schools, and eventually some of those government schools might have to
close, putting union teachers out of work.
Yet again we see that the teachers' unions are only interested in toeing the Democratic Party line and
barring the schoolhouse doors to keep students from escaping their grasp.
This is an important test for Bush and his new administration. Will he press for school reform, or will he
knuckle under as the Republicans have done so many times? I'm not holding my breath.
Speaking of government schools, for Saturday's special edition of "Good Morning America," ABC sent
cameras went into third- and fourth-grade classrooms to see what advice the kids had for our new
president. The responses that made it to air:
· "Get rid of guns."
· "Give" more federal money to schools.
· Tell companies to "stop cutting down the trees."
· Give the homeless "a second chance to go to college and get a diploma."
· "Just be nice to the Democrats" and "treat them like they're your friends."
Charles Gibson wrapped up the segment by recommending that the voting age be lowered to include
third- and fourth-graders! He said those kids were "pretty well clued in."
Yes, they are, aren't they, Chuck? They're perfectly clued in to the social engineering your Democratic
Party wants to achieve. They're the perfect little liberals of a future America — an America where no one
has the right to self-defense, no parents have the right to take their child out of government schools, and
environmentalists rule the roost. It's an America where everyone has a right to an education, and the
Democrats are your friends.
May heaven help us when these brainwashed little liberals grow up to be our journalists and elected
officials.
Where's This Budget Surplus?
Would some economics expert please ‘splain this to me?
I'm talking about this budget surplus we're supposed to have in this country. Frankly, I don't think it's
there.
The first year we were supposed to have a surplus was 1999. OK, fine. So we had a surplus in 1999.
Then tell me why our federal debt increased by $127 billion dollars in 1999?
Ditto for the year 2000. The surplus has been cited as about $87 billion. What about our national debt?
It went up by $23 billion. The estimates are similar for 2001 when the so-called surplus will be $68
billion, but the debt is supposed to increase by $82 billion.
I'll tell you how it is happening, folks. Every year our government is borrowing money to add to the
budget. This then puts the budget in a "surplus" category. But the debt goes up too!
Consider your household budget. Let's say you earn $80,000 in 2001. Bad news, though, your bills total
$90,000. So you borrow $20,000 from the bank to add to the $80,000 you earned. You pay your
$90,000 in bills and expenses and you have $10,000 left over! Are you going to kid yourself by saying
"Look, I took in $10,000 more than I needed this year! I have a surplus!"
Well, that's exactly what the politicians are doing, and America is falling for it hook, line and stinker.
Gotta Go to Work
My job just got harder. I don't have a corrupt president and even more corrupt first lady doing my show
prep for me every single morning any more.
Oh, sure. There will be news and events that command the attention of a talk radio audience. Hillary,
after all, is in the Senate, Bill is in control of the Democratic Party, and the push to get a Clinton back
into the White House is on.
We'll have the leftists trying to move more and more of the middle and lower income Americans off the
tax rolls, while shifting the burden further onto the backs of a minority of high-income Americans.
Democrats will be working to gain the control of the Congress again. Some ancient and sickly
Republican Senators will leave and be replaced by Democrats, shifting the power.
The eco-commie radicals will continue to try to destroy America's industrial base while socialists
continue to work for redistribution of the wealth. Every day more and more Americans will wake up to
the realization that they are being royally screwed by Social Security, our insanely high tax rates, or both.
Government will continue to grow, individual liberties will continue to shrink, and the American people
will continue to not give a damn.
Still, right now, I must say that I miss Bill Clinton. Having a corrupt, dishonest, womanizing,
sociopathic, socialist, enigmatic, charming rogue in the White House hasn't been all that bad for talk
radio.
Now integrity is back, and I'm going to have to start earning my living.
Neal Boortz is the hugely popular nationally syndicated radio host.
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
Bush Administration
Lafisrap
(01/24/01; 11:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46310)
Various
http://cbc.ca/cgi-bin/templates/view.cgi?/news/2001/01/24/placer010124
Sometimes people interested in buying gold are fed information that only encourages them to do so. But the facts are that gold has not been a profitable investment for quite a long time. However, it retains its reputation as a preserver of wealth in times of calamity.
Steve H. used to periodically summarize the predictions and reasoning behind the predictions of FOA/Another. He has not done that for quite a while and seems to post here much less frequently (many of the old posters do not post here much anymore).
Correct what I inaccurately list. And please help by filling in the time frames FOA?Another predict for these events. I know that in the latest Trail Guide postings, something is supposed to happen this year. FOA is starting to write much more clearly (dropping his effort to maintain the mysterious angle that Another insisted on, and for which he was severely berated on other Internet gold forums), and that helps a lot.
In the FOA/Another scenario, we await the following:
* destruction of the LBMA and COMEX price-setting mechanisms
* hyperinflation of the US dollar
* establishment of a new authoritive price-setting mechanism for gold. This "market" would be supported by the BIS.
* a US dollar price for gold in the many thousands
Is this the FOA/Another story? If not, do we wish to get it straight?
Bad news from the link above:
Gold stocks moved lower on the TSE Wednesday
after one of Canada's biggest gold miners,
Placer Dome, said it foresaw virtually
no chance of any significant rise in the
precious metal's price.
Placer Dome said it would reduce the
value of its gold reserves on its books
from $325 US an ounce to $300 US an
ounce. Even that figure is $34 US an
ounce higher than the current spot
price.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 11:33:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46309)
Pandagold and all other knights of the round....
My name is indeed rather long or more appropriately, inflated in letters. Please accept my sincerest apology for any discomfort to the digits received resulting from such name inflation. I will acknowledge and answer to SLATT, in a selfless concession to global harmony. Changing my name though, well, belies reality. You see my name and my country's currency are both fiat.
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 11:10:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46308)
Stock,Lies and Ticker Tape
(You will really have to do something about shortening that name, I feel I've done a posting by the time I've written it)
To address your question - it is closer than you think - if you are not looking for skyrocketing prices. I believe I covered it in my Odyssey
Anyway isn't our Knight Sir Thaigold going to tell us at the close of business to night. He made a promise, and that we could bet our shirt on it - or something like that.
P.s Isn't everyone quiet today?)
Old Yeller
(01/24/01; 10:39:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 46307)
Another day ,another bruise
No doubt about,we're still in the trenches,battle may be intensifying,though.
Huge volume in the gold shares and not insignificant gains, prior to a percieved bearish event.Looks like we may be getting some new recruits.Also,the COT just seems to look better all the time.The next report is going to be interesting.How about the US dollar chart?Is this the right shoulder or does the uptrend continue?
So,how much ammo you figure they got left?
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 10:22:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46306)
Pandagold, your best estimate is.....
Alright, on the record! How much patience? I do not consider the past 5 years as a test of my patience. However if we are are talking about another 20 years, I'm crying! How much longer do you think this unprecedented cooperation can last?
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 10:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46305)
Cobra(too)....may I plagiarize?
"Buy some more as long as it's given away for paper." That sure strips away ALL pretense! Your "d(erivatively)irty" was a nice touch too! This forum is amazing!
SHIFTY
(01/24/01; 10:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46304)
More Terminology explained
RAINBOW : a pesky multicolored visual effect that will spring from the ground and give away the location of your horde if not buried deep enough.
$hifty
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 08:50:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46303)
Some Terminology explained
I felt there was perhaps a need to clarify some of the terminology used in our sphere of interest:
I could have added more but perhaps there are some of my fellow knights who have the wit to make a few additions:-
Soft Landing: You are given the hemlock in very small sips
Hard landing: They hold your nose and pour a litre down
Trend: The direction of a financial market, share, or commodity that is only identified when ‘they’ have either got in, or got out – depending on the direction of the trend
Gold: A barbarous, relic, a commodity, ‘real’ money, An Indian woman's dowry, Pirate treasure, a lump of non rusting metal……….(take your pick.)
CoBra(too)
(01/24/01; 07:38:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 46302)
Paper POG?
The latest BIS numbers indicate gold derivative positions of about 26.000 t/AU and it may be safe to assume
this means mostly a gold short position, due to the ongoing
carry trade. While the annual shortfall of supply vs. demand may not even be included in these horrendous numbers - remember the stated CB inventory totals 33.000 tons at max - looks like they're CB's are running dry of physical; Maybe they count virtual gold for real physical -
a parallel to the (virtual) Us budget surplus, which will bring tears to all, looking back from a few years in the future.
Well, as long as you can enjoy paying the paper price for physical enjoy - net importers of oil (or PGM's) for example already have tears in their eyes as they pay the bill of years of (not so, see P.R.of Kal.) begnign neglect.
As to the latest rumours of hedge (-fund) producers
trying to lay their d(erivatvely)irty hands on unhedged
gold may be another sign of the end game looming.
Buy some more as long as it's given away for paper.
Thank you - cb2
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 07:37:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 46301)
They will soon get the message
Closures abound, and pinks slip are scattering like confetti. The man in the street ( and woman) will soon get the message. This is hardly the beginning
Er, no this is not in the mining industry - they have become used to hard times. AOL/Time warner, JC Penney's etc., etc.,
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 07:20:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46300)
Stock, Lies and Ticker Tape: TRENDS
Trend does not mean just on the upside. Trend is direction.
Remember, you can make money on a down trend.
But I know what is frustrating you, the same as what is frustrating all of us, we want the trend in gold to change and become more obvious as it does so. (the trend in Gold has been down for some time, so it is food for the shorts.
However, like the tide when it is changing from flood to ebb, there appears to be a point where it is not going either way. If we didn't know it always went out again, we could be fooled into thinking it never would.
Patience, friend, patience - you are going to need lots of it.
Pandagold
(01/24/01; 07:11:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46299)
Black Blade, Gold up/down up/down...................
As I have said, this is standard procedure to keep the 'enemy' (we) guessing. There will lots of this as the transition moves forward. Transition there will be, have no doubt. But gold will be held until the Euro is 'firm' and at least dollar parity.
It makes sense. I mean if we were 'them' wouldn't we do the same. OK I know we are NOT them and have a different agenda.
But to beat the enemy, you have to think like them.
Remember they want, and NEED a soft landing.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/24/01; 07:09:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 46298)
"TREND" proponents are TRENDY, i.e. LEMMINGS!
I grow weary of the admonishment, follow the trend, the trend doesn't lie, the trend portends the future, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH!
Nothing is static. Everything moves, hence the term "trend". Are we to believe the trend for the POG is to continually decline in relationship to increasingly inflated fiat currencies? Are we to believe that cooperative efforts to suppress the POG internationally will continue indefinitely? JUST WHAT HISTORY IS THAT TREND BASED ON??? It is amazing that throughout this incredibly scant period of time (5 years) has seen the degree of cooperation to supress the POG as it has! THAT IS UNPRECEDENTED! IT ALSO CANNOT LAST!
Just what is this death knell trend for the POG supposed to signal to mankind? Will it change cross cultural economic attitudes globally? Are we to believe that one person from each country on this planet, if given the legal opportunity (please excuse this fantasy) to withdraw from the WORLD BANK vault (sorry, it was just too tempting!) an equal amount of their countries fiat currency or gold, which would the majority choose to leave with? Everyone knows that answer! GOLD! And the few idiots who didn't would fast try to trade, steal or fight for it!
There is only one trend that I will agree is apparently here to stay....that is of the spineless politician and all others wanting to exert influence over my life!
Black Blade
(01/24/01; 06:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46297)
Looking Ugly!
Gold down -$2.80, USD is stomping all over other currencies, and market indices are positive. Looks very negative for PMs today. :-(
SHIFTY
(01/24/01; 05:50:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46296)
kitco chart
Do the Limbo....How Low can it go!
$hifty
LeSin
(01/24/01; 04:45:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46295)
USA GOLD FORUM - HOLDS UK GOLD AUCTION!!!!
>>>--------------$295.00----------->>>>>>
We could get more the GOLD than the Londoners, yes. "S"
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/24/01; 03:52:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46294)
Here is the preliminary link to the year-long exhibition of 2001 "Odyssey" predictions which we promised you
http://www.usagold.com/hall/odyssey2001.html
As you can see, there is plenty of fine material there, and anyone wanting to try their hand at selecting the prize winners can offer their suggestions and justifications to me here at The Tower via Sitemaster@USAGOLD.com
And for your interim spectating pleasure, here is a look at the contestants' arrows as they speed their way toward Friday's target, the COMEX closing figure for the February gold contract....
AUgustUS (1/23/2001; 0:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46198)
>>>========= $259.90 ==========>
Pandagold (01/23/01; 15:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46251)
>>>=========$260=========>>>
RossL (01/23/01; 16:49:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46259)
>>>========= $261.90 ==========>
SEER (1/23/2001; 8:45:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46220)
>>>===========$263,50=============>
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (01/22/01; 22:51:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46189)
>>>============= $263.80 =================>
silver first (1/23/2001; 12:01:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46238)
>>>========= $263.90 ==========>
Topaz (01/22/01; 00:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46111)
>>>>>>>======= $264.20 ========>>>>
THX-1138 (01/22/01; 21:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 46185)
####========$264.35====>>>>
Gandalf the White (1/19/2001; 14:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 45932)
>======= $265.30 ======>>>
Canuck Gold (01/23/01; 14:53:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46247)
>>>========= $265.30 ==========>
VanRip (01/22/01; 09:46:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46143)
>>>===============266.40===============>
auspec (01/23/01; 15:55:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46253)
>>>============$266.70=============>
Gold Explorer (01/23/01; 14:56:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46248)
>>>========= $267.30 ==========>
Tree in the Forest (01/23/01; 20:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46277)
>>>>========= $267.50 ============>
Black Blade (01/22/01; 22:51:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46188)
>>>>>>>>======= $269.70=======>>>
Saxulum^ (1/23/2001; 7:30:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46217)
>>>========= $269.75 ==========>
Canuck (01/22/01; 16:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46167)
>>>>>>>========== $269.90 ========>>
Peter Asher (01/23/01; 23:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46285)
>>========$269.90======>>>>
Journeyman (01/22/01; 21:55:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46186)
>>>>=======$270.10==========>
Simply Me (01/23/01; 21:45:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46280)
>>>---------$270.40---->>
ET (01/22/01; 06:24:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46129)
>>>---------- $271.10 --------->
auric (01/22/01; 10:55:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46147)
>>>========= $271.10 ==========>
The Hoople (01/23/01; 20:49:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46279)
>>> ===== $271.20 =======>>>
Ducat (1/23/2001; 5:50:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46214)
>>>======== $272.50 ===========>
John Doe (01/22/01; 14:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 46161)
>>>========= $274.50 ==========>>>
ThaiGold (01/22/01; 00:55:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46112)
>>>========= $275.00 ==========>
Flatlander (01/22/01; 17:34:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46170)
>>>>>>>========== 276.10========>>
R Powell (01/22/01; 13:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 46159)
>>>>>-------$279.40------->>>>>
working-kirk (01/23/01; 20:26:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46278)
>>>===========$280.50============>
Genoo (01/23/01; 18:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46273)
>>>>=========$284.30=============>
SALMON (01/22/01; 07:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46133)
> > >----------- $286 --------------->
IronHead (01/23/01; 23:55:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46286)
>>>===FeRN's for AU on Friday: $Cheaper Than Paint On A Door===>>
(in the event of a tie, the earlier marksman shall claim the prize)
If it is apparent that your post has been overlooked, please notify me at The Tower. Be sure to knock loudly to overcome the din of many projects. (Alchemy can create quite a clamour I will have you know.)
LeSin
(01/24/01; 03:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 46293)
ANOTHER ASIA "GLITCH" - Will Asia Take IMF Advice Again??
http://www.iht.com/articles/8510.htm
As Asian Reforms Go Into Eclipse, Growth Outlook Darkens
Michael Richardson International Herald Tribune
Wednesday, January 24, 2001
SINGAPORE The signs are surfacing across Asia.
In South Korea, officials decide to bail out heavily indebted conglomerates. In Indonesia, the central bank announces that it will enforce aggressively what it says are existing curbs on the supply of rupiahs available to offshore institutions. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad renews his call for Asia to reject "unfettered predatory capitalism and the absolutely free market" that he says are being imposed on the region by Western powers.
East Asian governments apparently are retreating from free-market principles and abandoning key reform efforts just as their export-oriented economies are slowing because of shrinking sales to the United States. The backsliding is expected to intensify as the U.S. economic downturn and the threat of continued high oil prices bring tougher times to many East Asian countries in coming months, making it more difficult for political leaders to make economically painful and unpopular decisions.
But the cost, economists and bankers warn, will be bigger debts and slower growth that will further undermine business and investment confidence, already sagging as a result of political instability in the region.
For the first time since the financial crisis of 1997 and 1998, East Asia faces a difficult external outlook. The United States, which absorbs more than 20 percent of the region's exports, is slowing more quickly than had been forecast just a few weeks ago, and orders for electronics, East Asia's leading export, are falling.
The regional monitoring unit of the Asian Development Bank warned recently that the slowing of the drive for reform in some countries, particularly Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, was a cause for serious concern.
"Implementation of reforms may be more difficult in a context of slower growth," the bank said, "but the costs of inaction are likely to increase in a less hospitable global environment."
It added that South Korea and Malaysia as well as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand were facing "the double whammy of increased external and domestic risks."
Other analysts said that China, widely considered to have played an important role in helping East Asia recover from the last crisis by sticking to its market-reform efforts and not devaluing its currency, was likely to be less resolute this year as slowing exports to the United States put a brake on growth.
David Roche, managing director of Independent Strategy, an investment advisory company in London, said many Asian countries had failed to reform the financial systems that were the root cause of the currency turmoil that started in Thailand in mid-1997. "Banks were bailed out, not reformed," he said.
Among the signs of backsliding that worry foreign bankers and investors are:
•South Korea's bailout of its chaebol, or big conglomerates.
•The newly elected Thai government's aversion to selling banks to foreign interests and its pledge to use $12 billion to buy bad debt from Thai banks.
•The unraveling of Malaysia's privatization program.
•The slowing of state enterprise and bank reform in China.
•Indonesia's curb on the free movement of capital.
The International Monetary Fund, which marshaled billions of dollars in emergency loans to help Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea recover from the 1997 crisis, has called on the region to intensify, not slacken, reform efforts. The Fund's managing director, Horst Koehler, said the IMF expected economic growth in Asia, excluding Japan, to slow to around 5 percent in 2001, from about 8 percent last year, as exports faltered.
"I would consider such a slowdown more as a normalization than a cause for doom and gloom, and justifying neither panic nor frantic actions," he said, noting that East Asian countries had cut their short-term debts, rebuilt their foreign-exchange reserves and were operating more flexible exchange-rate policies.
"The slowdown that causes me greater concern is that of progress in structural reforms in many Asian countries," Mr. Koehler said.
In South Korea, officials said action to rescue chaebol was just a temporary measure. The state-owned Korea Development Bank is to pay about 25 trillion won ($19.62 billion) of 65 trillion won in corporate debt that is maturing this year.
In Indonesia, the central bank's actions would make it more difficult for speculators to attack the rupiah, which fell about 25 percent against the dollar in the past year as the country's problems grew.
In the Philippines, the weeks of political turmoil that forced President Joseph Estrada to resign over the weekend sent stocks and the peso into a tailspin, diverting policymakers from the urgent task of improving tax collection and reining in the budget deficit. Former Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was sworn in as president Saturday, and Rafael Buenaventura, the Philippine central bank governor, predicted the peso would bounce back.
But Stephen Cheng, an analyst in the Hong Kong office of UBS Warburg Asia, said the sovereign rating of the Philippines was still likely to be downgraded, given the sharp deterioration in the country's creditworthiness in the past few months.
"Our view on the fundamentals remains the same," he said.
Analysts also said Malaysia's once-vaunted privatization policy was unraveling as sales of state assets slowed amid a government push to prop up troubled companies, many with political connections.
Mr Gresham
(01/24/01; 02:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46292)
Good post from Gold-Eagle
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=105288
by way of BF:
Please X-ray my head
(Trout) Jan 23, 11:53
Invest in NASDAQ:
- All analysts speak out in support of you and hype your shares (it's a multi-trillion dollar industry)
- a massive and influencial Venture Capital community is dedicated to supporting you and hyping your share prices
- All programming on one wildly popular tv station supports you and hypes your shares
- add to this the hundreds of stock-hyping web sites, radio shows, newsletters, etc.
- The ESF operates so as to support your share prices
- The PPT defends against any excessive or swift downdrafts in your share price (your own tax dollars support you)
- Many (all) gov't agencies manipulate economic data to support your share prices, home refinancings and excess credit expansion are encouraged by gov't and then accomodated by 'gov't sponsored' enterprises like Fannie May, thus increasing the amt. of money available for new players to support your share prices. In fact, the entire Federal government supports you and assists in the hyping of your share prices
- The Federal Reserve actively supports you - as the Fed Chairman himself literally sets interest rate policy for your benefit and slashes rates dramatically in a surprise move just as it looks like your share prices are about to take a final beating.
- Furthermore, the Fed floods the system with 'liquidity' (excess money/inflation) knowing that this inflation will bouy stock prices.
- Furthermore, if any leveraged speculators get in trouble (e.g. LTCM) the Fed will bail them out.
- Other wealthy gov'ts (G-7) actively collaborate with the US in supporting your share prices, though such action is often at the expense of weaker, poorer nations.
- The whole world supports you.
________
Invest in Gold:
- All analysts speak out against you and bash your shares and the underlying commodity (it's a multi-trillion dollar industry)
- a massive and influencial Cabal exists for the sole purpose of destroying you and bashing your share prices
- All programming on one wildly popular tv station attacks you and bashes your shares (or simply acts as though no such shares exist)
- add to this the hundreds of stock-hyping web sites, radio shows, newsletters, etc. - almost none of which ever mention gold, and whose slant is so anti-gold that they must be considered collaborators, albeit perhaps unwitting ones
- The ESF operates so as to crush your share prices
- The PPT defends against any excessive or swift uptrends in your share price (your own tax dollars attack you)
- Many gov't agencies manipulate economic data to undermine your share prices, home refinancings and excess credit expansion are encouraged by gov't and then accomodated by 'gov't sponsored' enterprises like Fannie May, thus increasing the amt. of money available for new players to neglect your share prices. In fact, the entire Federal government attacks you and assists in the bashing of your share prices
- The Federal Reserve actively fights against you - as the Fed Chairman literally sets interest rate policy for your detriment and slashes rates dramatically in a surprise move just as it looks like 'typical' share prices are about to take a final beating, thus obviating all consideration of risk and the need for prudence (safe harbor). The Fed *is* our safe harbor and gold is a barbarous relic (he says).
- Furthermore, the Fed floods the system with 'paper gold' knowing that this inflation in 'conterfeit currency' will suppress prices. In fact, the Fed most likely raids the national treasury, your own financial heritage, by which it gathers the ammunition with which to undermine you
- Furthermore, if any leveraged speculators get in trouble (e.g. LTCM) the Fed will bail them out.
- Other wealthy gov'ts (G-7) actively collaborate with the US in suppressing your share prices, though such action is always at the expense of weaker, poorer nations.
________
Despite this, I shall continue to invest in gold and gold mining equities.
And what's more, I expect to win and win big.
As I said, someone please X-ray my head.
Mr Gresham
(01/24/01; 01:37:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46291)
Peter -- Odyssey
Your Odyssey tale, amazing! Thanks.
Black Blade
(01/24/01; 01:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46290)
API Inventory Data
NEW YORK (Dow Jones News) - Crude oil futures fell at the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday led by plunging heating oil futures. Unleaded gasoline for March delivery, however, closed higher, finding support in January refinery maintenance and anticipated problems with California refineries due to soaring natural gas prices. Traders also bet that California's electricity crisis would curtail summertime production there.
American Petroleum Institute data released after markets closed on Tuesday showed a narrowing of the gap in U.S. reserves of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel fuel, when compared to year ago levels. March crude futures fell 23 cents to $29.57 per barrel, pressured by heating oil. The crude price had been trading even lower, but recovered in late afternoon trade following news reports that the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks had broken down again. In London, Brent crude from the North Sea was trading at $26.67, up 14 cents.
March heating oil fell 1.22 cent to 82.69 cents a gallon. March unleaded gasoline finished the day at 86.00 cents a gallon, up .2 cent.
Natural gas futures fell as traders looked to bearish weather forecasts. The March contract lost 51.1 cents to $6.946 per 1,000 cubic feet, down from a high of $9.20 in January.
Also pressuring the petroleum complex were indications of an apparent resumption of Iraqi exports since Sunday. Iraq halted exports Dec. 1 in an oil pricing dispute with the U.N. and its customers.
The API data showed U.S. inventories of crude declined by roughly 2 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 19 to 288.4 million barrels, compared with 291.6 million barrels a year ago.
Stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 826,000 barrels to 114.1 million barrels, below the 114.7 million barrels in inventory last year at this time.
Motor gasoline inventories moved higher, growing by more than 2 million barrels to 200.1 million barrels from 197.9 million barrels a week ago. During the same period last year, there were 198.8 million barrels of motor gas.
Black Blade: Crude inventory is down, however, distillates are up. The resumption of Iraqi oil exports will be the focus of OPEC discussions again. They indicated that if Iraqi oil were to flow, then they would counter with additional production cuts. The summer "driving season" could get a bit tight this year if the past is any indictor. Distillate inventories are still short of what is needed to avert the same problems as last year's inventory tightness.
Black Blade
(01/24/01; 01:05:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46289)
NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Near-Flat After BOE Auction
By Deborah Kinirons, BridgeNews
New York--Jan. 23--COMEX Feb gold settled down 30 cents at $267.0 per ounce, as excitement surrounding the Bank of England's gold sale appears to have faded immediately after the auction. The BOE sold 805,600 ounces of gold at $268.0 per ounce, and the auction was 4.8 times subscribed, one of the highest levels of demand seen since the start of the auction in 1999. "You can interpret it as mildly bullish because of the price and the coverage. But all in all, the BOE auctions are just a yawn," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. The $268.0 price was 90c above the London AM gold fix. David Meger, senior metals analyst, Alaron Trading, said the auction was decent. Gold saw short-covering and reached its high of the day just prior to the gold auction, he said. After the auction, gold saw selling, but it was more a lack of any continuation of short covering than anything else, Meger said. Meger added that short-covering is still the key to this market.
One trader said longs partook in profit-taking Tuesday, and there was trade selling as well. He said the market still has potential for further short-covering. There are sell-stops below $263 basis Feb, and "the market may decide to reach down and take those out," the trader said. Kaplan noted that gold held support at $265.5 basis cash, "and it just kind of did nothing. It was extremely quiet on the floor," he said. He remains bullish on gold, and thinks gold will climb to roughly $273-275 in cash in the next two to three weeks.
NYMEX Mar palladium futures settled down $15.2, following news that Russia is making palladium supplies within the January amounts pledged in line with all long-term deals, and that Japanese buyers received confirmation from Russian export agency Almazyuvelirexport that the first shipment of palladium under long-term contract for 2001 will arrive in Japan before the weekend. Meger said palladium was lower on the news out of Russia, and that Apr platinum--which settled down $1.0 at $618.8 per ounce--followed suit. Meger says he still feels the market has a "show me the metal" attitude. They can talk all they want, but we actually have to see the deliveries, he said.
Black Blade: One take is that producers sold into the rally. That would most likelybe hedged miners covering their behinds by capping the POG. Likely culprits would include the likes of Barrick (ABX) and AngloGold (AU). They are rumored to be in talks to takeover unhedged Goldfields (GOLD), if true, that would be a tragedy as they would probably strip the assets and sell forward more gold. As far as the PGM news is concerned, no metal has landed on the tarmac, so be skeptical.
Black Blade
(01/24/01; 00:51:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46288)
US issues last order on Calif natgas, power supply
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010123/wat023063.html
WASHINGTON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The Bush administration and California Gov. Gray Davis have agreed that Tuesday's extension of federal emergency orders requiring energy firms to sell electricity and natural gas to California's utilities will be the last. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham on Tuesday issued a final two-week extension of the supply orders, which expire on Feb. 7 at 3 a.m. (0800 GMT). ``Governor Davis agrees with Secretary Abraham that, having granted this request, no further extensions will be necessary,'' the Energy Department said in a statement. In his extension order, Abraham asked the California Independent System Operator, which oversees the state's electric grid, to submit progress reports by Jan. 29 on California's efforts to reduce electricity use during peak times. ``Our action today is designed to give the Governor, the California Legislature and other relevant parties the time to take necessary action,'' said Abraham, who added that he wanted the parties to ``act immediately'' to find a solution to the state's power crisis.
Black Blade: Soon it will be crunch time. Interruptible contracts are over for this year. The yearly allotment of interruptible power has been met only in the first 3 weeks of the year. Now the power crunch is more severe. Some off-line power plants will come back on line soon, however, if all were to be back on line, they only can provide enough additional power for a city of 300,000. The Grasshoppers are far from being outta the woods. Hear that freight train coming? It's called "recession!" and the one following behind is called "inflation!"
working-kirk
(01/24/01; 00:29:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46287)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton011201.html
I think the price of gold will rise sooner and faster than anyone expect. I think it will happen in April and that is due to two other commonities. Oil and Silver.
There is a shortage in oil coming thanks to Saddam slowing of oil shipments. While the slowdowns happened in December
Due to shipping and refining, it won't hit the marketplace till late Feb / Early March. See the link above for details
This will cause oil to go to at least $40.00 a barrel.
The second is silver
The price of silver has been going up slowly and the short are going to have to come up with some silver. Only the silver bank is running dry. The government probably think is has more inventory than what actually in the vault. Lat year handy and Harman went bankrupt. They held 2.5 million
ounces of silver in their vaults for the U.S. Mint and that silver is GONE. But I would be willing to bet the Government is still carrying that inventory on its books.
Now what happen when you think you have more morey in the checking account than you actually do? You overdraw your account. The government is about to overdraw it accounts
thinking it has 2.5 million ounces of silver than it actually does.
What happens when you overdrawn your account? You pay substancial penities and fees. Your bank has service charges and you have to pay $25.00-$50.00 to the store where your checks bounced. The govenment is about to pay that price and pay it in gold.
If the price of oil shoot up and the silver goes to the moon but gold goes nowhere, that people are going to start buying
gold as a bargain because silver and oil has gone, gold will be any day now.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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