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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/24/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (09/24/00; 23:50:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 37431)
RE: Peter
Since Bush and Cheney are both oil men, and they are supported by most in the business, it would be a perfect opportunity for them to show their support by refusing the SPR oil. As you said, Gore would have "egg on his face."

Peter Asher (09/24/00; 23:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37430)
Black Blade: Well said!
That party really could be a dud. They're sayin the Punch is spiked but it may turn out to be just fruit and water.

If they can't "Market" that Oil I'll be laughing so hard I won't be able to use this keyboard to rave about it.

Gore will have so much egg on his face and body he'll look like Big Bird.

BTW I still think it's illegal market manipulation and Treason: In principle for sure, if not by the fine print of satute law.

Peter Asher (09/24/00; 23:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 37429)
ORO, Marius
Back in March my daughter was negotiting to buy a house and the seller said the down payment could be cash or mutual fund shares. Apparently at that time this was not uncommon.

This was the Portland, Oregon market area.

SHIFTY (09/24/00; 23:17:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 37428)
GATA Discussion on Radio
http://www.regularguy.com/listen.htm
LIVE
$hifty

Black Blade (09/24/00; 23:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 37427)
99B849815
Source: BridgeNews
Press release snip-its!

12:46:18 9/23--US Summers: More EU reforms "desirable"
12:45:31 9/23 US SUmmers: More EU reforms "desirable"
12:45:29 9/23 --US Summers: EU progress in capital markets, fiscal reform
12:45:28 9/23 --US Summers: Signs growth between EU, Japan, US to be more balanced
12:45:27 9/23 --US Summers: Strategic oil release was a "constructive step"
12:45:08 9/23 --US Summers: "We never talk about intervention intentions"
12:45:07 9/23 --US Summers: Oil price fall would maximize global growth
12:45:06 9/23 --US Summers: Oil prices "largest cloud in relatively blue sky"
12:45:06 9/23 --US Summers: Oil prices need to be "more historically normal"
12:45:05 9/23 --US Summers: No contradiction in FX intervention, strong-dlr policy
11:34:43 9/23 --Duisenberg: G7 to continue to "cooperate" on FX "when appropriate"
11:34:04 9/23 --ECB's Duisenberg: G7 to continue to watch FX developments closely
11:28:49 9/23 --France's Fabius says G7 wants euro more in line with fundamentals
11:26:25 9/23 --G7 to "evaluate measures appropriate" to oil situation
11:26:04 9/23 --G7 communique: "We will continue to monitor developments" on FX
11:25:27 9/23 --G7 calls on oil producers to "contribute" to lower prices
11:24:18 9/23 --G7 wants oil back at level good for "lasting" global econ growth
11:23:02 9/23 --G7 worried at adverse effects of oil price hike on world econ

Black Blade: The G7 conference has two major points of discussion on it's agenda. 1) is how to get the Price of Oil lower; and 2) to develop plans to support the Euro. Tonight the price of oil is down $1.32 to $31.36/bbl. This does not change the fundamentals as the problem as discussed by Dick Cheney this morning is that there is a lack of refining capacity. The API numbers come out this Tuesday. Most currencies are up against the dollar (including Gold). The Euro is up +$0.27 at 88.53. The SPR oil deal looks to be somewhat strange though. It is a similar loan to the gold loan structure. The oil must be "repaid", plus additional oil. I wonder which oil refineries will be suckered into that deal? As it is, they can get oil "Just-In-Time" and not have to store any in inventory. They also don't have to "repay" with interest! Maybe the Clinton-Gore crowd are throwing a party with a steep cover charge and no one is willing to show up.


SHIFTY (09/24/00; 23:12:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 37426)
GATA Discussion on Radio
http://www.regularguy.com/listen.htm
check this out!
$hifty

jinx44 (09/24/00; 23:02:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 37425)
Journeyman......
No offense taken at all. I was just returning your post and was going to say ditto to your thoughts. I will not go lightly into that "kristolnacht" of confiscation either. However, most sheep in this national pen will be turned against "those criminal gold hoarders" by our socialist govt media organs. We will be blamed for all the troubles we are soon to be in. It may turn out to be a heavy price we small groups will have to pay to be outside of the manipulators prison system. The only alternative is to vote with fast feet to a country that still maintains respect for wealth and privacy. There are not many left and the US ain't one of them.

Journeyman (09/24/00; 22:27:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 37424)
Sorry!! @Jinx44

Sorry, Sir Jinx!

Didn't realize my message sounded so harsh till I re-read it!!

Regards, J.


Marius (09/24/00; 22:20:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 37423)
Omnibus
Oro,

I appreciated your comments re: mutual funds as "money". How does the new liquidity in home equity compare in size and scope?

ET,

I'm sure glad to see AP isn't biased. Calling Clinton's move in releasing the 11% of the SPR as a move to "slash oil prices" stretches credulity to the limit. They sound more like blond cheerleaders than journalists. (Don't misunderstand: I LOVE blond cheerleaders. They're wonderful people; I just don't look to them for market info.!)

Hill Billy Mitchell,

Ah, the things we do for love!

M

Journeyman (09/24/00; 22:16:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 37422)
Re: whither goest my gold?????? @jinx44 msg#: 37421

Governments can't steal - - - oops! wasn't being politically correct there - - - that is, governments can't steal - - durn - - they can't "confiscate" what they can't find. Or were you going to mail it to them?

Regards, J.


jinx44 (09/24/00; 21:52:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 37421)
whither goest my gold??????

Gold..."is down because it has been slammed time and time again with outright sales and more significantly, with leased gold which by now represents a major portion of total reserves listed on central bank balance sheets, though a major portion of it is no longer in its possession. Gold remains listed on central bank balance sheets as gold owned by them. But, in fact much of it is long gone, having been leased and sold into the market to be spun into jewelry or gold coins hoarded now by the private sector."

Jay Taylor, Editor of J Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks
www.miningstocks.com

Great article, but if the CB's of the world have lost a large portion of their (approximately) 30% of known world gold reserves, how will they get them back??? I believe that post WWII, CB's held a majority portion of world gold reserves. It would seem that the way the govt's of the world increase their share of the supply of gold is to a) go to war or b)outlaw gold (a la FDR and Stalin) belonging to it's citizens and confiscate it. Since govt's (CB's) still settle international accounts with gold right now, get ready for a) and b). If govt's want to control the global economy, they will take our gold, "for our own good", otherwise it might be a lassez faire market--heaven forbid it!


Black Blade (09/24/00; 21:41:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 37420)
Gold vs. Currency
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/taylor092500.html
Taylor's article on GE is good. I was going to address this issue, yet he has put much better than I could have. The point I would make is that the dollar isn't necessarily strong, but rather other competing currencies are very weak. Gold as a competing "currency" actually has done quite well. As a hedge it has been the savior of those in SE Asia who possessed it during the "Asian Contagion." Gold's function was fulfilled. As an insurance vehicle, gold preserved wealth for several individuals when their respective currencies failed. In contrast, today gold (priced in dollars) has outperformed most every other currency other than the dollar. Why else would the Aussies, Brits and Canadians sell off their gold. They get ever more Pesos for their metal and are able to pay off and retire debt quickly with a depreciating currency. Gold has also outperformed the newest currency, the Euro. Even the mighty Brit Slider and Swiss Franc have lost ground to gold. Gold of course is only weak in relation to the dollar and circumstantial evidence of manipulation is quite compelling. So what does that say about the world's currencies other than the dollar? Then again is Gold really weak or is it just not possible to fairly value gold? Either way, gold is a bargain now.

jinx44 (09/24/00; 21:10:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 37419)
SteveH...gold/euro link looks operational
Your early post talked about the FX intervention by UST and BOJ and the concommitant rise in POG by $4. It would seem that there is a demonstrable inverse link between gold and US$. I know it has been discussed thoroughly on this and other forums, but your observation of the manifestation of this link in the market was quite nice to see. There must be players that are looking at that spread in the markets quite closely. Perhaps we should watch this more closely also?

Canuck (09/24/00; 21:10:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 37418)
@ Cavan Man
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/hickel092500.html
Our own Steve H.

Black Blade (09/24/00; 21:08:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 37417)
24K Plated DeLorean!
http://bigtexas.com/dmc/
I would think that this car has to be the absolute best! Fllow the link and then drool over this baby!

SHIFTY (09/24/00; 20:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 37416)
Drudge Radio Show
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Talking about wall street tonight!

$hifty

goldhunter (09/24/00; 20:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 37415)
Shifty...& Mr. Crier...
Shifty...Nice website...click on the "red one" and see one of the most wonderful machines I've EVER seen...

I wonder if Mr. Crier allows "400 horses" to tie up at THE CASTLE?

One of the "big wigs" raised his target from 600 to 2000 per oz. Things could get interesting...

Is everybody ready? Mr. Wolavka is...Thanks for sharing your info.

SHIFTY (09/24/00; 20:18:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37414)
goldhunter
http://carpoint.msn.com/vip/overview/ferrari/360%20modena/new.asp
Check out the link. Its even the right color!
I can see Town Crier lowering the draw bridge for you now!

$hifty

SHIFTY (09/24/00; 20:12:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 37413)
goldhunter
You could probably get a good deal on a Ferrari Repo. Some big gold short / dot com guy with a cash flow problem.

:)

Wonder what kind of dividends would be paid on shares of Goldfields Ltd. and Harmony with a $2000. per oz price ?

Could get real interesting.

$hifty

goldhunter (09/24/00; 19:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 37412)
Mr. Asher...
It's a beautiful car Mr. Asher...who cares how much gas costs if you have futures or physical...

Ps: if you're worried, you can "hedge" gasoline...

SHIFTY (09/24/00; 19:45:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 37411)
RossL
Ponzi Chart
Looks good.
Thank you Sir.

$hifty


Peter Asher (09/24/00; 19:41:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 37410)
goldhunter (09/24/00; 19:39:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 37408)
At that point, who many ounces would you say it will cost you each time you fill the tank??

Peter Asher (09/24/00; 19:39:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 37409)
I'll post with both hands this time


Coffee Cos. Agree on 'Fair Trade'

Updated 7:31 PM ET September 24, 2000


By LISA LIPMAN, Associated Press Writer

BOSTON (AP) - Starbucks, Green
Mountain Coffee, Peet's Coffee and
Tea, Dean's Beans, and 78 other
gourmet coffee sellers have agreed to start selling a new line of
coffee purchased from farmers under "fair trade" regulations.

Those regulations include paying farmers at least $1.26 per
pound, regardless of how low coffee prices drop on the world
market, and paying them 60 percent of the cost prior to
shipment.

The two largest coffee importers, Maxwell House and Folgers,
have not signed on to the fair trade initiative led by Oxfam
America, which fights poverty worldwide, and Transfair
America, which promotes fair trade on food imports.

Americans spend $18 billion a year on coffee, more than any
other country, making it the nation's second most heavily traded
commodity after oil.

But thanks to sagging prices, farmers from Third World
countries often make only $3 a day selling their beans to
companies that can make almost that much on one cup in the
United States.

"It's not enough to live on," said Rob Everts of wholesale coffee
seller Equal Exchange, the first company to sign on to the
agreement.

Starbucks plans to start selling a line of fair trade coffee in
2,300 stores on Oct. 4. The coffee will sell for $11.45 a bag.
Peet's has already started selling its own line of fair trade coffee
for $10.95. Equal Exchange, the only company at which 100
percent of the coffee meets fair trade standards, sells its coffee
for $8.99.

Sue Mecklenburg, the director of environmental and community
affairs at Starbucks, said her company will sell the fair trade
coffee for one year, then evaluate whether selling more than one
kind is feasible.

---
On the Web: http://www.transfairusa.org

http://www.oxfamamerica.org

http://www.starbucks.com


goldhunter (09/24/00; 19:39:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 37408)
"Exchange Rates"
Wonderful day today in Indy...Figured out at $2000 per oz. it takes only 100 oz physical or 1 futures contract from today's gold price to buy a Ferrari 360 Modena...Go Gold!
Anyone want a ride?

Peter Asher (09/24/00; 19:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37407)
Journeyman & ALL



Coffee Cos. Agree on 'Fair Trade'

Updated 7:31 PM ET September 24, 2000


By LISA LIPMAN, Associated Press Writer

BOSTON (AP) - Starbucks, Green
Mountain Coffee, Peet's Coffee and
Tea, Dean's Beans, and 78 other
gourmet coffee sellers have agreed to start selling a new line of
coffee purchased from farmers under "fair trade" regulations.

Those regulations include paying farmers at least $1.26 per
pound, regardless of how low coffee prices drop on the w

wolavka (09/24/00; 19:25:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 37406)
key reversal in gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We should know very soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wolavka (09/24/00; 19:11:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 37405)
Tonites gold
trading range in dec looking good so far. 275.20-------- 276. very positive.

274 is support, if we continue to trade here all nite, we should move much higher in new york.

alot of support out.

RossL (09/24/00; 18:55:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 37404)
Shifty
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm

The asterisks don't help, all I need is the space between the day and value, because I imported the data using "space" delimiting.


RossL (09/24/00; 18:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 37403)
Ponzi chart
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
The Ponzi chart is underneath the SDR chart.


SHIFTY (09/24/00; 18:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 37402)
Hill Billy Mitchell / RossL
Ponzi Numbers
I hope they are easier to read this time.

$hifty

Date PPU

4/7/00 **** 7778.96
4/14/00 **** 6813.53
4/20/00 **** 7243.96
4/28/00 **** 7297.28
5/5/00 **** 7197.34
5/12/00 **** 7069.21
5/19/00 **** 7008.62
5/26/00 **** 6752.17
6/2/00 **** 7304.07
6/9/00 ***** 7252.13
6/16/00 **** 7154.93
6/23/00 **** 7125.04
6/30/ 00 **** 7207.00
7/7/00 ***** 7329.59
7/14/00 **** 7529.46
7/21/00 **** 7414.00
7/28/00 **** 7087.08
8/04/00 **** 7277.55
8/11/00 **** 7408.63
8/18/00 **** 7488.41
8/25/00 **** 7617.65
9/1/00 **** 7736.55
9/8/00 **** 7599.53
9/15/00 **** 7381.11
9/22/00 **** 7325.58



SHIFTY (09/24/00; 18:33:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 37401)
Hill Billy Mitchell / RossL
Ponzi Numbers
Here are the weekly Ponzi Numbers from the start.
I look forward to seeing them on a graph.

$hifty

Date PPU

4/7/00 7778.96
4/14/00 6813.53
4/20/00 7243.96
4/28/00 7297.28
5/5/00 7197.34
5/12/00 7069.21
5/19/00 7008.62
5/26/00 6752.17
6/2/00 7304.07
6/9/00 7252.13
6/16/00 7154.93
6/23/00 7125.04
6/30/ 00 7207.00
7/7/00 7329.59
7/14/00 7529.46
7/21/00 7414.00
7/28/00 7087.08
8/04/00 7277.55
8/11/00 7408.63
8/18/00 7488.41
8/25/00 7617.65
9/1/00 7736.55
9/8/00 7599.53
9/15/00 7381.11
9/22/00 7325.58


CoBra(too) (09/24/00; 18:31:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37400)
Intervention - in markets
... is the new and nice word or form of(mal-)practise of manipulation, or deceit or deception of public perception in formerly free and self regulating market concepts (SEC's and CFTC's safeguarding the rules and reg's being fairly administered).
... Manipulation is today's name of the game. A (mal-) practise, going along with mega $ - mal-investments in non-& never productive segments of the new economy - though aiding the virtual budget surplus by the short term capital gain taxation on, well, mal-invested, or better non-productive $'s (reproduced by AG's FED at need - or experienced by the 'long term capital asset mis-management) - projected for 15 y's, under equal premises, though outsourcing medicare and retire'ment.
The generation of former 'baby' boomers will be overjoyed
to find their nest egg - clintonized - A'lgorized = evaprorized!
... Bushe'd, still may be the better choice, as you'll know there may? be some basic morality left (not as in right), though fundamentally versus left.
... Free markets ... globally ... and globalized free trade - Cartel's, Monopoly's and imperialistic, feudalistic Systems once and forever destroyed - ...will never be restored by cabalistic, fraudulent and opportunistic heirs to the same admin.
... And while all are sharing in to shore up the euro - lastly to ensure the $ - and its financial mkt's viability, the blatant corruption of reality - is open for all to see!

... The mechanis'm of pricing the supply/demand equation has been corrupted by the derivative "futures" system of pricing paper, contracts of questionable deliverability of the contracted commodity, rolling the same contract over (internaally) to eternity ... as long as you can see forever - though the clear days come to an end! ... and so come the paper games -
And while the admin - does not intervene
As Al Green-Spans - keen
Scheme of monetary dream!
becomes obscene ...

You should be told
To hold more gold ... cb2





Leigh (09/24/00; 18:24:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37399)
Frank Veneroso's New Prediction
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
New Midas just out.

"What does Frank (Veneroso) think now as a result of all these 'shenanigans?'

"Cutting to the chase: According to Frank, the manipulation of the markets has been so extensive and so devious that the first stop for the price of gold - the first leg up - is not $600 anymore, but $2,000 per ounce. That is a quote. Frank believes this will occur when the gold cabal loses control of their price orchestration and gold investment demand goes off the charts as confidence in other financial markets wanes."

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 18:12:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 37398)
Missouri 2 NFL 0
During the last half of the Chief's game the promo for Sixty Minutes featured a story (tonight) on oil. The tag line was something like; "wherever there is oil to be found, americans will be finding it". Probably, that will be re-assuring for the general public in tandem with SPR drawdowns.

Gosh, I sure have changed after 18 mos on the gold circuit.
Have a fine week ahead all....CM

Mr Gresham (09/24/00; 17:49:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 37397)
Miner49er /CBankers
Echo your thoughts. And I'll recommend again Steven Solomon's 1995 book "The Confidence Game: How unelected central bankers run the world" with some hair-raising accounts of getting through 1987 and other crises by the skin of their teeth. In about 200 interviews with Volcker and other retired CB heads and staff, he presents their sense of limitations pretty well. Of course, that could be for public consumption since their lifelong game IS confidence to keep the proles working, but at least it's worth reading. Very FEW books of this type exist -- name another and I'll read it! (This was about all I could find after Griffin's " Jekyll Island" book on the Fed's origins got me started last year.)

(A year and a half in financial babyhood -- that's about where I am now. Reading FOA is like taking a third-grader to visit junior high school -- another world to him, but old old stuff to someone who's lived through years of it. Live and learn... Read and try to learn...)

Of course Volcker is head of Trilateral Commission now (last I looked). I kind of have liked the guy all the way through -- will we get his full story someday? Greenie can look forward to a similar Emeritus career onward from Fed head, eh?

Mr Gresham (09/24/00; 17:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 37396)
Mundell/FOA?
http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/lux.html
Trail Guide (09/23/00; 16:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 37312)

"That Mundell is something. When reading his speeches I almost feel like I have talked to him before. (smile)"

Jim Croce sang: "...you don't pull the mask off the ol' Lone Ranger..." but of course I've been curious since Day One here just who we've been walking with.

I haven't read enough of Mundell (one of his currency essays) to identify his academic style vs. conversational posting, but it seems he isn't posting among us, if he ever reads us.

But I was curious if he and FOA swam in the same waters, and now I guess so. My thoughts of engaging Mundell in some Q&A on the gold/Euro/oil thesis might develop stronger legs, though I wonder what kind of constraints he would be under at his level of celebrity?

He sounds pretty out front now in recent remarks, but it would he reveal detail of behind-the-scenes deal-making of the past 20 and 5 years, of which he must surely have been aware?

I assume TG's (smile) over Mundell is not the one given in the mirror each morning.

The makings of a great gold/currency/conspiracy screenplay simmer in my opportunistic mind... Michael Douglas? Donald Sutherland? Not, oh no not Jack Ryan (H. Ford) as Bill Murphy?!? (OK all you treatment types in L.A. --- ((( your eyes are getting ver-r-r-ry sleeee-eee-py and (((you ((( will ((( forget, forget, forge-e-e-e-e-e-t-t-t-t-t))) all))) you))) just read here) back to your L.A. times Metro section...




Leigh (09/24/00; 17:30:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 37395)
ET, miner49er
I have to admit a certain fondness for Mr. Greenspan. Surely he can't have strayed that far from his earlier fondness for gold. What I'd like to see him do is stand up during one of those hearings and say, "Everybody! Listen up! The dollar's fixing to collapse, and you'd better run out and buy gold quick because there's going to be hyperinflation!!" Then there would be no doubt about his integrity.

Mr. Greenspan ought to do for the world what FOA and ANOTHER have so unselfishly done for us. He should tell the truth in plain language.


ET (09/24/00; 17:23:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 37394)
miner49er

Welcome to to the forum. I enjoyed your contest entry. You wrote today in part;

"Mr. Greenspan inherited basically a lost cause. And he is human. In circumstances where each
movement made has tremendous rippling effect that amplifies the action for a long time to come,
mistakes are not easily reversed. Does he lie awake at night questioning decisions he made in the
past? Probably. Does he believe he's made mistakes? Undoubtedly."

Yes - it is important to remember that Greenspan didn't start this mess. He kind of reminds me of the guy they always bring in to the corporation just before it is to be sold. 'Try to clean up the balance sheet and let's see what we can still get for it'. I'm sure the US government is still looking for the best deal it can get.

"The problem with the populist view of the Central Banker today, is that he is viewed as an infallible
high priest. Central Bankers know full well, because they are not stupid, that they cannot possibly be
absolutely prescient. Yet they have to maintain that they are to the public, who expects them to be.
And while it is not the public that votes them in or out of office, the public elects political
representatives who can create lots of obstacles, and as a last resort, it is the public that can take to
the streets."

It's a confidence game, it always has been. As a salesman myself, it is easy to understand how much the potential buyer wants to believe he is getting a good deal. What is lost in today's environment is the notion that to be a good deal, it must be a good deal for both parties. It is the essense of free trade. Once the public comes to the understanding that what they thought they were receiving is not quite what the advertising claimed, they will not likely be in any hurry to do business again with the same party that just took them to the cleaners.

"This is perhaps as good a reason as any to let gold be what gold is. Gold is the perfect arbiter of value."

Yup - gold being the alternative to those many promises about to be broken.

Thanks for your participation here. Hope to read more of your insights.

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 17:19:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 37393)
USAGOLD
Broncos lose to another (no pun) Missouri team! (without Griese admittedly).

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 17:18:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37392)
Leigh
There are basically two types of Irish; "lace curtain and, shanty". An Irishman can be your very best friend in the most difficult period of your life or, he/she can be your worst nightmare. Heads up for the uninitiated.

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 17:16:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 37391)
Hugo Chavez
I don't think this gentleman is going to "play ball"; unless it is the "hardball" variety.

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 17:14:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 37390)
Leigh (smiling)
Hee, hee. You have a teriffic sense of humor.



Leigh (09/24/00; 16:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 37389)
Cavan Man
Do you mean because it's printed in the Irish News? Does that mean it's undoubtedly true? (smile)

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 16:44:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 37388)
Canuck
Can you post the link or the time of post please?

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 16:40:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 37387)
Leigh
Always consider the source right?

Leigh (09/24/00; 16:34:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 37386)
Something to Ponder
http://www.irishnews.com/k_archive/230799/nnews6.html
Will the European Parliament be the seat of the Antichrist? Why has Seat #666 not yet been assigned? Interesting reading for a Sunday.

Canuck (09/24/00; 16:07:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 37385)
@ Steve H.
Just saw the editorial over at G-E; awesome.

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 16:03:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 37384)
Hello ORO
I'm curious why you do not advocate a higher percentage of gold in portfolio allocation. You seem to be very bullish on the metal for many reasons. Could you explain please? Thank you..CM

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 15:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 37383)
miner49er
amen to you 49er

Cavan Man (09/24/00; 15:54:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 37382)
ET 37378
That reminds me of the old Cheech and Chong joke about a "freak" accident: two freaks ina van hit one freak in a VW" or something like that.

miner49er (09/24/00; 15:14:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 37381)
Comments and Questions...
Good afternoon, all. I'd like to make a point, and pose a couple of questions.

1) Amen to Trail Guide's comment last night in response to Aristotle's question about Alan Greenspan. (Not that Trail Guide needs my approval, but while any good preacher speaks boldly in the face of adversity, he usually likes positive feedback from the Amen Chorus as well.) What strikes a chord with me especially is viewing this perspective of Mr. Greenspan, in light of much of the negative press he receives. These opinions have him as everything from the anti-christ to a senile old man. He is obviously neither of these.

It is important I believe to be reasoned and reasonable when attempting to assess motives. Not only does seeing conspiracy or stupidity in every action lead to endless frustration, and a tendency toward paranoia, it clouds our ability to see things clearly, and make good decisions ourselves. When faced with situations where to us the remedy seems obvious, and others resolutely refuse to see things this way, it is easy to simply pass off their behavior as either 1) ignorant, and uninformed, or 2) subversive and sinister. While many times people fall into these categories, to not consider a third possibility permits arrogance of elitism to develop in us.

What I mean is this: if the only possibilities of response to a situation are born of either 1) or 2) above, this implies that I fully know and comprehend the situation, and the course of action to take. Perhaps the situation is a bit more involved than I know? When it comes to global finance in this day and age, I cannot see how anyone could deny that it is.

Mr. Greenspan inherited basically a lost cause. And he is human. In circumstances where each movement made has tremendous rippling effect that amplifies the action for a long time to come, mistakes are not easily reversed. Does he lie awake at night questioning decisions he made in the past? Probably. Does he believe he's made mistakes? Undoubtedly.

The problem with the populist view of the Central Banker today, is that he is viewed as an infallible high priest. Central Bankers know full well, because they are not stupid, that they cannot possibly be absolutely prescient. Yet they have to maintain that they are to the public, who expects them to be. And while it is not the public that votes them in or out of office, the public elects political representatives who can create lots of obstacles, and as a last resort, it is the public that can take to the streets.

This is perhaps as good a reason as any to let gold be what gold is. Gold is the perfect arbiter of value. It is entirely disinterested, dispassionate, and ignorant of extenuating circumstances. Unencumbered, it always gets marked to its appropriate value, and accurately gauges the value of other things. It cannot be bribed, intimidated, or deceived, and is not prone to a bias toward any race or creed.

Now the questions:

1) Trail Guide - I know you probably tire of people asking you about gold confiscation, but to the little guy trying to keep up with the giant's footsteps, may I ask for your clarification here?

I remember reading in an FOA post earlier on that you were not concerned with confiscation because of the faster animal theory. I.e., I don't have to be able to outrun the wolf, just be faster than the slowest sheep. When I first read this, I was not much comforted by the words. I am not one of any great means, and I am not a clever fighter. I would see myself as one of the slow sheep, in other words.

Yesterday, you responded to Cavan Man as follows:

"The other is the Legal Tender problem we also discussed. While I'm not concerned with official gold confiscation, the US and it's Australian / Canadian partners may call in all their Legal Tender in some form of currency exchange. Most of our modern Western gold is 'Legal Tender'! . For this reason alone, especially when things get rough one should have brought some of the old coins. K-Rands are better than local bullion but a better mix would include a bunch of the old fractional coins. Or at least begin building on them now."

Would you please elaborate on this, or point me to a post where you have already done so? And would you mind being more specific on your thoughts about confiscation.

Because ultimately, all of this is academic if we have another confiscation.

2) Anyone - regarding Israel being used as a trading card in the scheme of things. While in my initial post Friday, [miner49er (9/22/2000; 14:00:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 37234)], I made this assertion in a more declarative sense, I did so mostly because it was a contest entry, and, as such, more or less demanded it be posed this way. I really would like to open that item up for discussion because I don't think it can be ignored.

Indeed I doubt with all my wit and wisdom that it is not discussed in think tanks as any and all possibilities are necessarily presented and the pros/cons, costs/benefits weighed. Indeed, I am truly convinced that our posturing in this so-called peace process is directly linked to our discussions with oil producing nations that are hostile to Israel, or allied to such.

Let me reiterate, as I feel I must, in this hyper-sensitive climate we live in: I am not anti-Israel, nor do I recommend selling out Israel for oil favors, neither am I accusing any particular state or government leader of such thinking. I am simply asking questions about what I perceive to be a real world possibility, and all history indicates that, well, these things happen.

So... any thoughts?

-- Also, Auspec, good to see you posting here! Yes, as a rookie, I am proud to be with this squad...




tommy (09/24/00; 14:40:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37380)
fxdata page
The link that Gresham posted is for one of the best pages I've ever seen.

When you plot gold in the German Mark or European Euro, it is evident that over the past year, gold is up at least 24% and 22% respectively in those currencies.

If you don't like the plot page and just want to download the data to put into Excel and graph it with that application, go to the data page at http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/data.html

Download the data in comma or tab delimited format, take out the first and third fields with an awk script and away you go.

tommy (09/24/00; 14:38:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 37379)
fxdata page
The link that Gresham posted is for one of the best pages I've ever seen.

When you plot gold in the German Mark or European Euro, it is evident that over the past year, gold is up at least 24% and 22% respectively in those currencies.

If you don't like the plot page and just want to download the data to put into Excel and graph it with that application, go to the data page at http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/data.html

Download the data in comma or tab delimited format, take out the first and third fields with an awk script and away you go.

ET (09/24/00; 13:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 37378)
Interventionism
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/nwssun03.htm

From the G-7 meeting;

"PRAGUE, Czech Republic (AP) - After the world's
wealthiest nations ruled out lowering taxes to cut the soaring
price of crude oil, the World Bank called Sunday for
''collective action'' to bring the market under control.

"The Group of Seven industrial nations agreed Saturday
evening that President Clinton had done well to tap into an
emergency national stockpile to slash prices, and they also
supported central bank intervention to prop up Europe's
ailing currency, the euro.

"But finance ministers gathered here for the annual meetings
of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank
remain concerned that oil prices, now well above $30 per
barrel, could harm global economic growth prospects.

"French Finance Minister Laurent Fabius said Sunday the
world needs to find an ''escape route'' that will push oil lower
and keep the economy on track for healthy expansion.

''We must do everything possible so that this temporary
excess of volatility does not transform itself into a new global
shock,'' Fabius said."

It would appear 'everything' doesn't include cutting taxes. No explanation for this position was forthcoming.


The highlight of the meeting so far;

"As the top global financial figures gathered in Prague ahead of
this week's annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank,
street demonstrations turned violent Saturday when about
300 anarchists attacked 40 skinheads who were preparing to
leave town on a train."

The article doesn't clarify whether the skinheads had attempted to hijack the anarchists' train or had purchased their own tickets. Anarchists now lead this series 4-1.

You gotta love this circus!


ORO (09/24/00; 13:23:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 37377)
One more note on intervention
The intervention was in multiple markets, some had unexpected results. The dollar sales were a convenient excuse for many to unload dollars and treasuries and take up Euro (which is otherwise politically verboten since the US does not "allow" sale of treasuries by central banks). The sale of oil from the SPR was another part of the intervention. A parallel part was the dumping of gold paper. The oil release is the only component where the US may have acted to benefit Europe.

The oil bailout is actually the part where Europe enjoys the multifaceted intervention by the Clintonites.

US gets respite from debt buildup by displacing imports with old SPR oil.

The oil can't be used in the US because there is no storage space for it. It will simply bring oil in transit on the high seas to Europe. It would be at a lower price in Euro terms (15% lower) due to the multimarket intervention.

The tax revolt in Europe will have the edge taken off for now, but it is unlikely that people will forget how their leaders responded to their tax revolt - some, particularly English Labour, are done for politically. We have found the limits of European's tolerance for taxation. This limit will fall even lower now that the experience of a popular tax revolt has created a precedent and an expectation of popular support for future tax revolts.

The EU socialists are being pushed to compete in tax, business, labor and regulatory aspects and they don't like it one bit. Financial flows out of Europe, however, will have their effect in pulling the reluctunt governments towards reform and rational policy.

The dollar intervention to cap the dollar is also intended as an excuse for the US to obtain Euro.




ORO (09/24/00; 13:13:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 37376)
Reference post
canamami (09/23/00; 22:22:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37348)
Dropped that so here it is.




Mr Gresham (09/24/00; 12:56:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 37375)
Currency Exchange Rates
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html
Here is a site I've kept bookmarked since FOA gave it to us last year. It might be useful in the weeks ahead, though I'm not exactly sure how often it's updated.


beesting (09/24/00; 12:23:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 37374)
Comments,,,,and what may be a quite blast off for Gold!
First, I'd like to thank Sir TrailGuide # 37330 for his replys, time ,and responses, to my post and everyone elses,and the walk on this enlightening hike through Gold country!
The reason I made my post on Friday concerning the "Euro Intervention," was, most of the currencies listed in the currency exchange calculater site had a sharp and sudden small,upsurge in value which could only be attributed to a "Devaluation" of the U.S. Dollar!

Second, Sir canamami, on your # 37348:
"Legal Right to use Gold Clauses in Contracts."
I have made some copies of this post to give to friends that may be interested.(Hope You Don't Mind) Very helpful information.

P.S. I made a Gold clause in a contract I wrote in 1994, now I know it's legal and binding.(I'm not a lawyer) A Big Thank You!

Third, From USAGOLD 37310:
Included in a speech from Robert Mundell:

In his speech, Mundell also said the euro zone should use its excess gold reserves to produce
gold coins in order
to proved "a tangible manifestation of what the euro is."

He said the euro zone's decision to introduce euro notes and coins in 2002 - three years after
the currency's launch
- was a mistake.

"It was a mistake to delay for three years the introduction of the paper currency and coins and
the production of a
gold currency would heighten general interest in the euro," he said.

-By Paul Hannon Dow Jones Newswires; 44-7776-200 927 paul.hannon@dowjones.com

COMMENT:
If this part of Mr. Mundells speech hits the worldwide airwaves tomorrow(Sept.25) we might just see a price explosion in Gold.
WHY?
Because, the IMF/World Bank specifically states,( From memory)
Gold cannot be used by any country as money, only for reserves or a backing of the issued currencies, or as commemorative issues.So far it looks like all 192 Central Banks worldwide are abiding by this rule, in order to stay in good standing with the IMF/World Bank/ FED/U.S.Dollar!

Now I'm sure Mr. Mundell knows the worlds financial rules much better than me. But if this Euro Gold coin, yet to be made, does indeed become a medium of exchange, it will blow the IMF/World Bank and U.S. Dollar right out of the water!!!
We Watch Together......beesting.


ORO (09/24/00; 11:29:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 37373)
canamami - item 7 on your list is dead wrong
While it can be claimed correctly that the value of gold in terms of goods is higher when gold is used as money for all purposes (see below) than when it is not, the "normal" state of free banking in the 19th Century allowed gold substitutes to build up in circulation so as to displace gold from use in every day exchange, and for savings - which were done predominantly in paper form (i.e. fiduciary investment). Thus gold use as money did not contribute its full potential to gold's value because of leverage built into acceptable gold-equivalent through banking.

Modern use of gold in monetary terms has been limited by the use of legal tender laws to eliminate the use of gold to (1) pay taxes, (2) denominate debt contracts, (3) daily use for purchases, (4) a vehicle for financial savings (rather than investment). All these limitations were forced upon a less than willing population. Yet when gold was taken out of use for internal trade in the period 1933-1973 and denomination of contracts till 1977, the first reaction - coming as early as 1930 when it became obvious (a) that Hoover would lose the election (b) that democrats will separate the dollar from gold - was for people to withdraw gold from circulation and from bank vaults (foolishly, some thought they could put it in safe deposit boxes for safekeeping) 3 years before the expected happened. People preferred to withdraw "savings" out of banking and out of circulation when there was a danger of non redemption. Just the renewed use of gold for savings instead of bank issued substitutes caused prices of goods to tumble over 30% relative to gold. When international trade settlement moved to having gold settle only the net deficit/surplus of trade between nations (not between individuals who were no longer allowed to do cross border gold settlement on their own) at the time of the FDR confiscation, the dollar gold backing was adjusted downward by 60%, thus gold's purchasing power was hiked to more than double its previous value despite the elimination of gold demand by Americans and many others. Had they been allowed to continue to save and exchange with gold in parallel to a fiat dollar people would have afforded gold even a higher premium - say the 8 fold increase in purchasing power (rather than 2 fold actually allowed) that would have resulted from transfer of gold from bank savings to physical savings in the historical proportions, or the 30 fold increase that gold use in parallel to the new pure fiat dollar would bring just from unwinding of bank leverage of 30 times reserves.

Finally, the 1971 closure of the gold window caused not the expected drop in POG (by many so called economists, including Friedman) that would have resulted had your statement in #7 been correct, but the clear opposite happened, and despite the boom in gold substitutes over the period absorbing 1/2 to 2/3 of the demand for gold, its purchasing power ran up 10 fold before official intervention by all world powers cut the process.

Thus the value of gold is at its full potential when fully used as money, but has not been fully used as such since the advent of large scale banking.

The next issue that comes to mind is the effect of the growth in the use of mutual funds in general as money either directly or through the instrument of the credit card. Money market funds can be used as a money account though they rarely contain much cash since the bulk of the fund is short term debt securities. Yet the money market funds are now used as checking accounts at least for month to month bill payment. They are now as much a part of the money supply as bank demand accounts.

Services are now available to rebalance a mutual fund portfolio automatically so as to preserve a fixed ratio between the various funds, hold a fixed quantity in a money market account, and thus allow the use of checking for day to day transactions. Using credit cards, the day to day transactions are done and then settled once a month so that the purchasing power in the mutual fund portfolio can be indirectly accessed through the use of a credit card paid off by a money market check and the manual rebalancing of a mutual fund portfolio with a mutual fund "family" or at a broker just prior to making payment.
Mutual fund transactions are settled on a same day basis or a next day basis, whereas individual bond and stock sales require 5 days for clearing. This is not much different from your normal check deposits.

I believe that part of the runup in stock prices - along with the drop in debt yields, is related to this enhanced liquidity of mutual fund assets bringing people to use it as "money". Thus mutual funds have introduced stocks and bonds as money to settle trade bills (the exchange function) and to keep for savings rather than investment.

Money usage:
-exchange on the current markets in every day use for purchases and for
-denominator of debt contracts
-denominator of futures contracts (where a purchase and sale are settled at a future date)
-vehicle for savings - delaying one side of a trade over prolonged periods.


Galearis (09/24/00; 11:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 37372)
The supreme irony for the right...
Ideologues won't get the joke or dismiss this as ravings.

The financial community which is currently sacrificing all other sectors of the American economy (and has, of course already destroyed many WHOLE economies ourside the US borders) consists of 1 to 1-1/2 percent of the population. Russian communists (which has destroyed etc...) comprised some 10% of their population. Therefore Russian society under the communist regime there (and then) was almost 10 times more representive of their population than the American etc. model.

Could then one make a case that the financial community "old boys' club" is socialistic, but more undemocratic in the American utopia. Those that actually know what socialism is will understand this... John Kenneth Galbraithe, for example would understand this...quite.

Irony is a form of amusement that seldom results in the belly laugh... This is a good example.

Ideology kills thinking, yes? Keep an open mind folks...

Canuck (09/24/00; 11:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37371)
@ Towncrier and/or M.K.
Good Sunday to you gentlemen.

Just curious, is there any way to access posts from a specific person an the neighbourhood of 3-10 months ago?

Thanks.

Canuck.

lamprey_65 (09/24/00; 10:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 37370)
Sound Familiar?
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000924/ts/energy_oil_richardson_dc_1.html
...Release stockpiles into the market and leave open the possibility for even more to be released.

Same old game.

oldgold (09/24/00; 09:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37369)
Interesting Post from an SI Oil thread


OT Iso, watch the Won (S Korean). The intervention on behalf of the Euro was only the initial and first step to halting an unfolding
currency crises. Anti inflation people can rationalize away the price of oil if they wish. But, simply put, the recent currency crashes
threaten runaway world wide inflation. Gold is on the verge of of a major bull market break out in almost all currencies in the world today.
The US will be forced to accept it's fair share of the inflation pie. Ie. Summers "strong dollar" policy is almost over. Any more "strong
dollar" nonsense will lead to a currency induced financial panic. Asian currencies are still heading down, even though the Euro has be
given some respite. If the Won cracks in the next few days the world wide currency crises will be upon us in full flood. The Won is the
last finger in the dyke. The dollar MUST go down against all currencies or it's the Devil to pay ;o{

Summers is playing a very dangerous game. Slider was right, Rubin got out when the getting was good. I wonder if Washington has it's
eye on the ball? Election blinders on? If the Dogster thinks an oil crises is coming soon, wait till he get's a load of a full blown currency
crises. We stand at the precipice of one right now. BWDIK JMVVHO.

JavaMan (09/24/00; 09:07:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 37368)
All...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/newsid_938000/938820.stm

From the link above: "The world's leading private banks have warned that the dollar is still dangerously over-valued despite last Friday's intervention to boost the euro.

The Institute of International Finance, which represents 318 leading financial institutions, said that "a sharp fall in activity associated with abrupt exchange rate changes.. remains a risk in the light of the outsized US current account deficit." William Cline, the deputy managing director of the IIF, told the BBC that, although the euro was weak at the moment, there could be a sharp change in sentiment when foreign currency markets realized that the US trade deficit - running at a record $450bn a year - was unsustainable.

He said that there was a need to reduce the value of the dollar in a concerted fashion, and he was worried that the US still appeared to believe in a high dollar policy despite the intervention on Friday to boost the weak euro.

The dollar has been boosted by foreigners investing in the US stock market, but the bankers are worried that a stock market crash would hit the dollar and cause a slowdown in the US economy.

...

One reason is that most money going to poor countries is now in the form of investment in the stock market rather than bank loans, which dried up after the Asian crisis of 1997-98."


JavaMan: Can anyone explain the following???!!! "One reason is that most money going to poor countries is now in the form of investment in the stock market rather than bank loans..."

lamprey_65 (09/24/00; 08:55:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 37367)
Further...
I think we all know this electronic gold payment system would be destined to turn into just another fractional reserve system...unfortunately, it's too ingrained in the banking psyche.

lamprey_65 (09/24/00; 08:50:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 37366)
dragonfly
Although I find the concept and timing of MoneyGold interesting, let me be very clear...

It is no substitute for personal, hand-held ownership of bullion!

Even with an electronic gold-based payement system, you are still stuck with having to trust others with holding your assets and all the risk this entails. I refuse to do this with all of my accumulated wealth.

dragonfly (09/24/00; 07:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 37365)
Buena Fe - msg 37321
Thanks for the link. The heavy hand of Gresham notwithstanding, I think about the many potential benefits in using such a system to help make the spending of gold easier and more private. Wouldn't it be a unique form of gold banking in that ones gold would be in a vault, secure from theft and one would have an account number of sorts to access the spending power of ones gold. Title to what was previously a portion of my gold in the vault would transfer upon spending it. Maybe it is somewhat like what occurs in Central Bank vaults today, except that presumably ones gold would be Free to measure and buy the various currencies used for specific transactions and thus would naturally appreciate over time. I would like to think that I could send all of my legal tender gold somewhere else for the duration and still have the private use of it. It would be preferable to firing up the kiln and making some kind of artwork. I think we all must wonder at times how we will be able to use our gold down the road. Back-alley transactions with satellite-linked Palm Pilot devices to check on the latest market price? What, no market? No problem, a guesstimate will do. What, no change? Keep your stinkin Ferrari then. Government agents running gold stings. Local mafias doing their thing. A secure and private and global and digital system sounds great to me. It is the closest approximation to sovereign individual status for those of us of lesser means who can't buy Swiss accomodations (if we even wanted to). Speaking of which, it seems that even the mighty Swiss need to put their gold out of harms way or in a place where it can do them the most good. Yes, I think that walking in the "footsteps of giants" is a good idea, just hope they don't fall down backwards.


A warm belated greeting to MK and the other folks who make this forum possible. Thank you very much.

wolavka (09/24/00; 07:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 37364)
Sir Black Blade
Has the right handle. Oil has become the weapon.

Gold will be the only uniform unit to stand.



Canuck (09/24/00; 07:32:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 37363)
@ Black Blade
Thank you for your recent dialogue lately. I believe we agree on the FN issue.

Back to the oil issue (since I believe you are in the know).

Here's a clip from T.G. earlier (from post 37326).

"The US knows the oil pricing dynamics have and are changing today. Truly, fundamental supply and demand was never the driving force. Real payment
for oil was!"

End.

I must go (my mother has arrived with pumpkin muffins) but I will come back later today with a question. It goes back to my question a couple days ago re: the EIA postulation that soaring POO in '99 was not a fundamental supply/demand
situation.

TIA

Canuck.

MO VER MEG (09/24/00; 07:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 37362)
Steve H
Message # 37356 was well said - thanks.

Canuck (09/24/00; 07:23:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 37361)
@ Steve H.
Your email to your friend summarizes recent events very well.

Thank you.

Hill Billy Mitchell (09/24/00; 06:36:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 37360)
Official Release
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H15/update/

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: Sept 22, 2000

Rates for Monday thur Thursday, September 18,19,20,21

Federal funds 6.44, 6.40, 6.50, 6.53

Treasury constant maturities:

3-month 6.15, 6.17, 6.16, 6.16
10-year 5.88, 5.86, 5.91, 5.88
20-year 6.20, 6.18, 6.23, 6.18
30-year 5.96, 5.92, 5.97, 5.93

Spread - FF vs long bond

(0.48%), (0.48%), (0.53%), (0.69%)

Spread - 10 yr vs 30 yr:

+0.08%, +0.06%, +0.06%, +0.05%,

Spread - 3mo. vs 10 yr:

(0.27%), (0.31%), (0.25%), (0.28%)




canamami (09/24/00; 06:29:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 37359)
Dow/Gold Ratio
Maybe everyone will win. Gold at $30,000 per ounce, the Dow at 30,000 :-)(smile). However, does that mean a decent business suit will cost $30,000? Another view: Is the POG at $270.00 reflective of the switch to casual business attire:-)? (smile)

Now to the office, where I can't post because our computer system doesn't allow it.

Hill Billy Mitchell (09/24/00; 06:20:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 37358)
Official Release
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H15/update/

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: Sept 18, 2000

Rates for Monday thur Friday, September 11,12,13,14,15

Federal funds 6.50, 6.47, 6.47, 6.50 ,6.55

Treasury constant maturities:

3-month 6.11, 6.09, 6.09, 6.14, 6.14
10-year 5.77, 5.78, 5.74, 5.79, 5.84
20-year 6.02, 6.04, 6.01, 6.09, 6.16
30-year 5.73, 5.76, 5.73, 5.81, 5.90

Spread - FF vs long bond

(0.77%), (0.71%), (0.74%), (0.69%), (0.65%)

Spread - 10 yr vs 30 yr:

(0.04%), (0.02%), (0.01%), +0.02%, +0.06%

Spread - 3mo. vs 10 yr:

(0.33%), (0.31%), (0.35%), (0.35%), (0.30%)

SteveH (9/24/2000; 4:50:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 37357)
Repost
www.kitco.com
Date: Sun Sep 24 2000 04:15
SlangKing (Just read the last spins post) ID#293152:
Copyright © 2000 SlangKing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
this one REALLY stood out:

Donald ( @EB ) ID#26948:
Copyright © 2000 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
No it doesn't always have to end that way. 1987 was a good example. So how do you tell the difference you ask? OK, the only way to tell the difference is to look at the Dow/Gold ratio. In 1929 it was 18, dropped to 1. In 1968 it was 28, dropped to 1. In 1999 it was 44, dropping to 1. But in 1987 it was 5 dropping to 4.5. Governments have provided us with an illusion of prosperity via inflation. Every year you get a raise and think you are better off. The only way, absolutely the only way, you can know how you are doing is to mark to market in gold every once in a while. That is why I keep hammering away and posting the damn thing here daily.
-----------

Thanks Donald, your reason 1987 wasn't s disaster was a real eyeopener


SteveH (9/24/2000; 4:44:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 37356)
Post to my friend Leroy
Leroy,

Friday was a hallmark day. Why?

Several events occurred in near simultaneous fashion that highlights a serious problem with the US dollar. I wrote before that the Euro is competition on equal par with the dollar. I told you that the Euro may replace the dollar soon as the world's reserve currency. I said that foreign oil interests appear likely to begin accepting Euro, at first with the dollar, and later by itself, for oil payments. I have also re-posted posts of Another and FOA (friend of Another) to show where some of these thoughts have come from. What has me concerned, being a true-blue American, is that these events are unfolding right before our eyes and 99.999% of us are not seeing it happen. It reminds me so much of how the radar operator who allegedly alerted the authorities of the incoming Japanese invasion but no one seemed prepared to listen. We know how that turned out.

So, I ask you to pay close attention. On Thursday and Friday the following events occurred:

-- Intel announced a future earnings warning related to the Euro and European operations. Immediately it dropped from around $61 to under $50 in market price on record high volume.
-- Friday morning, the DOW and NASDAQ futures showed a much lower opening about to occur and in fact the NASDAQ opened 200 points low.
-- The President announced a 30 million barrel release authorization from the US strategic petroleum reserves citing higher fuel costs for home oil users as the mitigating circumstances for the move. Yet, this is only a two supply in US useage.
-- The price of oil and gas dropped modestly in response.
-- The Western Press announced that the ECU (European Central Union) allowed the Bank of Japan, the US, and the Bank of England to intervene on behalf of the Euro, which then made a quick reversal on FOREX markets. In turn, the dollar devalued against the Euro.
-- Immediately the price of gold shot up $4 + dollars.
-- The stock market that looked as though it would have a bloody day, actually had a normal day because of the above and due to HP and other tech stock majors stating that they are not seeing the same effect on their operations.

Most people would surmise that these events were not interrelated. Unfortuneately, I have to respectfully disagree. Intel is a market moving stock. It is so heavily owned and traded that it has the potential (as was seen) to seriously move the market in either direction. What I see in the above events is a market place set on record high PE levels (Price Earning ratio) with most peoples IRA, 401K's, so on dependent upon an ever rising stock market. Liquidity is known to be lowering or reversing in the the markets. This 50 PE for Intel and even higher for other tech stocks, which have been the darling child of the market over the course of the last year, can not be sustained without liquidity.

US saving rates of individuals has recently been reported to be in negative territory. Savings have been replaced in many households by IRAs and 401Ks. That means that any downturn in the market of a significant nature would seriously jeapordize the wealth effect so often talked about. In real terms, it would lower the per capita wealth of those holding 401ks and IRAs. Since consumer spending has been the underpin of the economy of late, any real detriment to household wealth would have a negative impact on household spending and debt levels. In short, the US can not stand to have the markets loose momentum, for there is unfortuneatly too much at stake. Yet, the US has recently been plagued by an ever increasing reliance on foreign oil. Combined this with the other countries throughout the world experiencing much the same demand for oil, the oil interests have had an allegedly hard time trying to meet oil demands. Yet these same interests have been pressured to increase production in order to keep oil prices down. With a reported 34 year supply of oil remaining, this increased demand for oil today for dollars today only stands to shorten the life cycle of the world's oil reserves all for an asset -- dollars -- that are being printed faster than these words are being typed.

Some have suggested that Europe introduced the Euro, backed by gold marked to the market price of gold, to eventually replace the dollar-oil payment system. Some have observed that the dollar strength-Euro weakness of late is directly related to the conversion of dollar debt into Euro debt and that the higher value of the dollar is the result of this and scarcity of dollars caused by paying down the tremendous amount of US dollar debt. Now, we have jinglings by Iraq to tighten its oil supply to the rest of the world.

Then we have the bullion bank Goldgate fiasco looming that has been heavily documented by GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action) committee (see www.gata.org). This in the well-documented but heavily eschewed theory that the Banks of the US and England and several prominent US bullion banks and one German bank are heavily involved in the naked shorting of the gold market. Naked shorting is the practice of selling gold that is impossible to pay back in order to depress the inflation-indicating gold price. One highly suspect activity to highlight this theory is the thought that the Bank of England has been publicly auctioning off its gold reserves in order to ensure physical gold does indeed back some of these more important gold short contracts. In other words, world banks have guaranteed some of these bullion bank shorts and that is why England has sold off almost half of its gold (or is about to).

In short, we have the makings of a real mess:

-- a market overvalued by all historical measures.
-- a population dependent on that market for its savings and wealth.
-- a record number of increasing US household bankruptcies.
-- a record number of bank and multi-national buy outs and mergers.
-- a record number of Stock bull commentators on CNBC and CNN.
-- a record
-- a competing currency threatening to replace it in world oil trade.
-- an oil crisis looming of record size that necessitates the early use of strategic reserves.
-- a record gold market short position of almost 14,000 tons of gold.
-- a tame CPI figure that just doesn't seem to understand why I just paid $35 for a dinner for two when just two years ago that same meal would have been under $20.
-- a government who seems to have taken unprecedented action in a two day period of time to stave off a crashing market and an ever increasing oil price just weeks before a US Presidential election.
-- an ever increasing movement to disarm Americans by anti-gun organizations who are well-funded and an Administration that supports it.

In summary, all is not well on the Western front. The above spells a disastrous economic and social imbalance that is likely to result in a recession or stagflation or depression or world debt restructuring of epic dimension -- or so there is that potential. The oft reported and sought after soft landing of the Greenspan Fed may be a ploy to merely posture important key players in a dollar-Gold-Oil-Euro chess game that will change the face of the fiscal world as we know it. Time to pay close attention.

SteveH

Hill Billy Mitchell (9/24/2000; 4:27:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 37355)
@RS, SHIFTY and RossL - Ponzi etc.

Sorry about that # 37354. My hands slipped off the monkey bars.

What I wanted to say:

RS,

You have just cause for concern. At the moment I am held hostage. I promised to go anywhere with my wife on the great (10 day) escape. She took me "Somewhere in Time". Grand Hotel, Mackinac Island. Problem is, the terms included hiding my laptop back in the Ozark Mountains. If that were not bad enough she tricked me into saying I was enjoying myself and now I can't get a date certain for our return. The darn plastic horses have did me in.

Shifty,

I have a request. If you could get the numbers, say weekly numbers, on the periodic update to RossL,he could post a graph comparing the dow, the nasdaq and the Ponzi. I think it would be very interesting and informative to all of us.

RossL,

Please on the above graph request.

Thanks

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell (9/24/2000; 4:06:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 37354)
Ponzi//SHIFTY and
SHIFTY (09/24/00; 01:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 37353)
Periodic Ponzi Update
Periodic Ponzi Update

Nasdaq 3,803.76 + Dow 10,847.37 = 14,651.16 divide by two = 7,325.58 Ponzi

Down 55.53 Ponzi Points from last week.

$hifty



SHIFTY (09/24/00; 01:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 37353)
Periodic Ponzi Update
Periodic Ponzi Update

Nasdaq 3,803.76 + Dow 10,847.37 = 14,651.16 divide by two = 7,325.58 Ponzi

Down 55.53 Ponzi Points from last week.

$hifty

TownCrier (09/24/00; 00:46:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 37352)
Playing ball?
http://www.hoovershbn.hoovers.com/bin/story?StoryId=CoCWQWeGhqKDst1vqlvnvtu1fuLmTremaaaaac&RolType=BUSINESS
According to this Hoovers article, Treasury Secretary Larry Summers "insisted it was concern over the effects of a weak euro on the world economy that had prompted him to order the Federal Reserve to join its counterparts from Europe and Japan to buy euros in the open market in an effort to boost its value."

Having your cake and eating it, too

Regarding the U.S. preference for a "strong dollar" in the face of intervening on behalf of the euro the SecTreas said in a news briefing, "I don't think there is any contradiction."



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Thursday February 9
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