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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/24/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Simply Me (12/24/99; 23:40:37MDT - Msg ID:21627)
Ho-Ho-Ho!
A Blessed Christmas and a Golden Year 2000 to All!
From Nashville, Tennessee,USA,
simple me


ThaiGold (12/24/99; 22:56:21MDT - Msg ID:21626)
Season's Greetings
========================================
Wishing you all a Happy Weekend, from us
here at ThaiRanch...
Where it's "Y2K" all the time...

ThaiGold..
Got Some.?. ... Get Some.!.
=========================================



rsjacksr (12/24/99; 20:42:38MDT - Msg ID:21625)
Season Greetinds
The Forum
I wish everyone a safe and prosperous holiday season for you and yours

elevator guy (12/24/99; 19:36:38MDT - Msg ID:21624)
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy New year!
Here's wishing everyone at this Table Round peace and prosperity in the comming year.

Dont worry too much about Y2K. He has not given us a spirit of fear, but of love, power, and a sound mind.

Remember that the sun, wind, moon and stars are all Y2K compliant. Y2K has not caught God by surprise, as if He didnt know it was coming. He will never leave you, nor forsake you. Take heart!

God bless all, and your loved ones.

Peter Asher (12/24/99; 17:54:30MDT - Msg ID:21623)
Tedw; thanks for the Jim Lord article.
Great summary of the scene to date. Regarding his ----

>>>>I believe that even without Y2K we are on a cusp. The irrational, volcanic stock market, the
unstable global economy, the poisonous domestic political landscape, the white-hot volatility of
the geopolitical mess. The post-Cold War world is like a room full of balloons filled to the
utmost tautness. And Y2K is a porcupine.

The Post Y2K World

All that said Y2K is not the end of the world. It's a technical management problem and if it
knocks us on our can, we'll get back up again and move on. We always have before and we'll
do it again this time. <<<<<

----**----

There was a little ditty during WWII referring to WWI, "We did it before, and we will do it again."

These excerpts from (3/8/99; 17:56:24MDT - Msg ID:3116) , are first, a piece of that "technical management problem," and then, about how we did do it the last time.

"I hold that the primary stable datum of the Y2K aftermath will be that most things will still be in
place, albeit not necessarily in the place we wished. Hopefully most things will have remained
under the same ownership, despite the universal enthrallment with fiat money. It is probably a
given that there will be less affluence for a while, a definite drop in "conspicuous consumption."
This general alteration and displacement in the economic scene, however, will serve to enhance
the growth potential of www commerce. Ongoing trends, such as direct sales and the
ruralization of business, will be the way of things more than ever,. The small low-overhead
business person with intelligence and ambition as major assets, will thrive in the new
environment."

"The time and form of the reestablished electronic infrastructure will depend on how the people of the nation and of the world rally to the cause. Posts on this Forum and other sites have visions that run the gamut from a decadent, lawless society waiting for an excuse to rape, pillage and burn, to a patriotic, all-for-one and one-for-all group of rugged individualists, who come together in times of crisis.

beestings response this morning(#3104 ) reminds me of the way society was in those World War II years. Almost everyone had a friend, lover, husband or father overseas and in harm's way. On what we called the "homefront," everyone had a part. As kids, we sold defense stamps in increments of 10 &25 cents to be glued into books to become $18.75 bonds ($25.00 @ 10 year maturity). In grade school, we gave a performance for the grownups with lyrics such as
"Get on, get on, get on the road to victory.
Get off, get off, get off the rusty dusty.
And get on, get on, get on the road to victory,
And buy another bond today."
(Maybe A.G. will bring it back with a rewrite.)
At the end of the show, a friend of mine came down the aisle in a hideous monster costume. He was the "Squander Bug," who wasted precious resources by buying unneeded things. The audience all booed and hissed.
In 4th grade, each kid learned how to knit. We made squares which were then stitched into afghans, blankets for soldiers in wheelchairs .

Gasoline rationing was, as I recall, the most restricting aspect of home life. Every car had an "A" sticker on the windshield. Business people who had to make sales calls also got a "B." And if you were totally on the road for work you got a "C." The slogan was, "Is this trip necessary?'

One other economic event I remember was during the first summer of the war. At a carnival at camp, we threw baseballs at pictures of that year's four villains — Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, and...John L. Lewis, head of the United Mine Workers! He had called a strike and was seen by everyone as a saboteur for crippling the "war effort."

So, how will the world of the new millennium respond to a similar situation, being deprived of the normal plentitude of life by a common enemy?. As more and more picture frames of the Millennium movie come into view, the parallels to WWII are a bit uncanny. {Speaking today, 12/23, the difference is that the common enemy is not a foreign Empire. Rather, it is the one described in the most famous Pogo quote "We have found the enemy, and he is us"}

There are also differences. Today's FEMA is not of the same government as the various agencies of the '40s and all the "Dollar-a-Year" business leaders who volunteered their working lives for the country. Today's populace is not the same close-knit patriotic America of that time. The term "Gung Ho" is Chinese for "pull together." Interesting how it has evolved into an expression of derision!

There is also from China, in the "I-Ching," an ideogram depicting the co-existence of crisis and opportunity. Such will be this new time.



tedw (12/24/99; 15:23:13MDT - Msg ID:21622)
Good Y2k Newsletter
www.usagold.com

JIm Lord has posted his December newsletter on his site free.Its a corker. Go to www.jimlord.to



Skip (12/24/99; 14:43:35MDT - Msg ID:21621)
Season's Greetings!
I'll express my wishes for a happy holiday season to all on this forum, and a new year filled with golden prosperity. This will be my last post until I return from vacation sometime in early January. Live long and prosper, and stay healthy - don't catch the Y2K bug!
--Skip


Peter Asher (12/24/99; 13:56:47MDT - Msg ID:21620)
TownCrier
I'm overwhelmed. What a great X-Mas gift. Thank you friend!

TownCrier (12/24/99; 13:28:27MDT - Msg ID:21619)
Seasons Greetings from those of us that man The Tower to you good knights and fair ladies--near at hand or far afield!
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html
As the Millennium dawns, gold is poised on the threshold of a new era, promising as ever to bring excitement into our lives. Arousing always human passions, its mystique will never fade. As a Renaissance courtier counselled his ducal master "Cherish the ancient, cherish the golden, you will not be an antiquarian but a man of gold."

May there be a fire upon the hearth and good company to receive you from the chill night air when your day's journey has reached its end.

TownCrier (12/24/99; 13:11:39MDT - Msg ID:21618)
It is often nice to look back one year (+/- one day) in the archives for a pearl of wisdom...
Peter Asher (12/23/98; 12:08:16MDT - Msg ID:1489)
Honest Money
In our discourse on fiat money, devaluation of currency, storage of value & inflationary wipe out; there is a common denominator. Man produces, and if he does not immediately call in his exchange in goods and services, then later he may not be able to have all that he earned.

The "New World Order" claims to be creating a "Global Village," but if it is built on paper currency, then it will be "Global Pillage"! The storage of value will continue to be diminished by the manipulations & profiteering of fiat money.

Just as the EMU seeks to achieve equality of trade between its countries, gold can play the vital role of insuring that fair exchange exists in trade throughout the world. Gold is honest money!

Decades ago , movies were proceeded by a "Short", often a documentary of 15 minutes or so. .There was one where someone had gotten a camera inside an egg and filmed the formation of a chicken embryo. When the heart was only a barely visible diaphanous form, it was already beating. The rhythm of life was there.

In recent days, as posters have opened up about their thoughts and about themselves, there is surfacing a feeling that Gold is not just a common interest, but also a common bond.

I see something incubating in this Forum, it is still nebulous, but the rhythm of its life is beating.
Maybe it is some futurist vision of the peoples of Earth exchanging with each other equitably, through the medium of Gold.

Rather than a New World Order ---- An orderly new world!
-------------
Glad to have you still with us Peter!

goldfan (12/24/99; 13:10:52MDT - Msg ID:21617)
Holiday Greetings to all here
http://www.usagold.com
The very best of the season to all of you. In greeting you thus, I know that I am greeting a bunch of people who have given me a lot of value, free!!, and a lot of interest and I hope that will continue. I have lots of disorganized thoughts aboutthe IMF stuff and gambling on the markets that I will share when I can. Right now, I'm getting ready to make ORO's sacher torte for my kids Christmas eve feast and then perhaps we will find the skies over Central Ontario clear enough for a stroll under the stars, to let in a bit of the magic and peace of those ever present mysterious beings, who write the history of our time in this universe. Blessings and Peace to all

Goldfan

TownCrier (12/24/99; 12:44:07MDT - Msg ID:21616)
Bloomberg profiles 11 men who had the biggest impact on forex markets over the past decade
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=7e57b6258801c7d135110f934448c5b0
Way too much history for me to recap here...click the link to get a quick overview of the significant words and deeds on the monetary scene over the last ten years. You'll get reacquainted with these men:
ROBERT RUBIN
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA
GEORGE SOROS
HELMUT KOHL
ALAN GREENSPAN
HANS TIETMEYER
LLOYD BENTSEN
MAHATHIR MOHAMAD
JACQUES DELORS
JOHN MAJOR
NORMAN LAMONT

It may give you a more well-rounded picture of the ever-changing world of King Dollar.

Journeyman (12/24/99; 12:25:39MDT - Msg ID:21615)
Gvt. finally warns of potential energy shortage.
I saw Energy Secretary Richardson's performance too, reassuring us that "For Y2K, half a tank's OK". Told my wife -- she immediately went out and topped off all our tanks. Thanks for the tip Mr. Sec.!

Regards,
Journeyman

TownCrier (12/24/99; 12:12:43MDT - Msg ID:21614)
An early Christmas gift to all Americans from the Bank of Japan
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991224/fa.html
The value of the dollar was propped up today by the Christmas Eve actions of the Bank of Japan, buying an estimated 1-2 billion dollars on the Foreign Exchange market as they purport to stem the rising yen. While yen could be spent indiscriminately into the FOREX markets for any other currency by the BOJ in their attempt to erode the purchasing power of the yen, their focus on the dollar is a distinct advantage enjoyed by our currency and no other. This was Japan's 13th invervention since June...most of which were predominantly aimed at dollars. How low would the dollar be otherwise?

After initially surging to ¥103.15, the dollar couldn't hold these gains even on this light trading day. The dollar truly appears to be treading on thin ice as it is, even in this goldilocks economy. Dollar owners will want to take caution as the new year commences and Japanese corporations begin their yearly repatriation of funds.

TownCrier (12/24/99; 11:38:05MDT - Msg ID:21613)
No rest for the "money" makers...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991224/ft.html
The Federal Reserve today used six-day fixed system repurchase agreements to make a last-minute supplement of $2.050 billion to yesterday's pre-holiday addition of temporary reserves for the banking system.

tedw (12/24/99; 11:06:08MDT - Msg ID:21612)
Im here from the government to help you
http://www.usagold.com

I noticed in todays world net daily that the energy secretary was posing at gas pumps telling people no need to fill up since everything is a ok.And no need to take any money out of the bank either,its backed by FDIC and the full faith and credit of the US Government (did anybody fall
on the floor laughing?)

Well, maybe everything would have been ok if we had a responsible government that would have told people a long time ago to make sensible precautions. Well, Ive made mine.
200 gallons of gas stored, Im filling up all the tanks, and Ive got a honda trail 90 which gets over a 100 miles per gallon.And Im not going to starve either. And Ive made some preparations for food for my neighbors that have fallen victim to the government propaganda.

If you havent made some sensible preparations to protect yourself and your family, you still have a little time left.








Canuck (12/24/99; 11:03:37MDT - Msg ID:21611)
Number Six
Good to see you back. Where have you been?

Yes it's true, some are going long in betting short, very long IMHO.

Al Fulchino (12/24/99; 10:32:39MDT - Msg ID:21610)
Steve H
I, too, am a Keyes backer.

Best to all over the Holidays.

Lafisrap (12/24/99; 10:08:55MDT - Msg ID:21609)
SteveH (12/24/99; 08:19:56MDT - Msg ID:21606) Alan Keyes and protecting gold

Steve H quoted Alan Keyes:

***
But above all, the Founders added the 2nd Amendment so that when, after a long train of abuses, a government evinces a methodical design upon our natural rights, we will have the means to protect and recover our rights. That is why the right to keep and bear arms was included in the Bill of Rights.
***

Yes, with respect to why the 2nd amendment exists, the above argument makes all other 2nd amendment arguments miniscule. However, the populace is now severely "undergunned." Imagining the consequences of armed rebellion should quickly lead one to the realization that the US populace possesses grossly inferior firepower. Based in that argument, perhaps the US should consider legalizing the general possession of bigger, better, more deadly weapons.

Since it is not unrealistic to imagine the possession of gold as illegal, it would not be unrealistic to imagine the possession of silver as illegal. With retailers of firearms now being frightened into removing handguns from their inventory, long guns are next. No gold, no silver, no guns . . . I dunno. I would expect some form of forced labor to follow, but only for those who "need" it, for their own "good," of course.

Lafisrap


Peter Asher (12/24/99; 08:54:47MDT - Msg ID:21608)
Goldy Locks Guy (12/24/99; 2:10:32MDT - Msg ID:21593)
This one, of your many gems, qualifies for a classic humor one liner.

>>> One Wallstreet analyst was quoted, saying
"Well, all I can say is if the streets in Heaven are paved with gold, I don't want to go there." <<<

Golden Calf (12/24/99; 08:48:38MDT - Msg ID:21607)
GREAT what more can I say.....Doug
Have been a fan of your writings from the first one
I've read.
Being a bit older, and having come to similar conclusions
from a far different background, I'm now off line for a time
as I'm resettling on a farm, where I can do the things I
was not able to do in a city, to prepare for y2k and all
its various scenarios.

Like the man said.....preparing for the worst and hoping for
the best. I too had emails to people like Ed Youdon, and like you I came to many of the same conclusions, but was
motivated by my background, more than anything else. I also
see more than just the y2k issues that are facing mankind,
but the embedded systems, and the interrelationships may
be the catalysts that will set off all sorts of problems.


Who knows....eh?

All the best to you and all. Happy New Millenium!

SteveH (12/24/99; 08:19:56MDT - Msg ID:21606)
Alan Keyes and protecting gold
He has got my vote.

***

Second Amendment Rights

I am a strong supporter of the 2nd Amendment. The 2nd Amendment is still

in the Constitution of the United States, contrary to what some elites
would
like us to believe.

And the 2nd Amendment was not put into the Constitution by the Founders
merely to allow us to intimidate burglars, or hunt rabbits to our
hearts'
content. This is not to say that hunting rabbits and turkeys for the
family
dinner, or defending against dangers, were not anticipated uses for
firearms, particularly on the frontier -this is true.

But above all, the Founders added the 2nd Amendment so that when, after
a long train of abuses, a government evinces a methodical design upon
our
natural rights, we will have the means to protect and recover our
rights.
That is why the right to keep and bear arms was included in the Bill of
Rights.

In fact, if we make the judgment that our rights are being
systematically
violated, we have not merely the right, but the duty, to resist and
overthrow the power responsible. That duty requires that we maintain the

material capacity to resist tyranny, if necessary, something that it is
very
hard to do if the government has all the weapons. A strong case can be
made, therefore, that it is a fundamental DUTY of the free citizen to
keep
and bear arms.


SteveH (12/24/99; 08:15:49MDT - Msg ID:21605)
repost
www.kitco.com
Date: Fri Dec 24 1999 07:39
Gianni Dioro (Masive Government Intervention) ID#437218:
-
"...you begin to realize that, stripped of the grossly overblown computer component, the true conundrum about the US economy is not the strength, but the weakness of its growth in the face of exploding credit. In this light, the thing to explain is why the broad economy ( ex computer output ) is doing so poorly with this tremendous debt accumulation."

"...Granted the US economy and the stock market, although teetering, have held up better than we had expected. Yet a salient point to see is that it has needed ever-more egregious credit expansion to achieve this. But there is another important point to note in this context, and that is the predominant role of Government-Sponsored Enterprises, largely Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac and The Federal Home Loan Board in pouring new credit into the economy and the markets. They have practically grabbed the credit bubble baton from the leveraged speculators. It is quite ironic of course that these institutions are "government-sponsored" creatures. Yet nobody wants to see what this is: masive government intervention."

-The Richebächer Letter

1-888 737-9358
1-410 234-0691


Canuck Gold (12/24/99; 08:15:15MDT - Msg ID:21604)
A smile for Christmas
Because it's a slow gold day, I thought I'd share the following seasonal offerings.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Three men were killed in a car crash. When they arrived at the pearly gates, St. Peter told them that, as it was the Christmas season, they should demonstrate that they have an understanding of the spirit of Christmas.

The first man pulled a bunch of keys from his pocket and shook them. These represent jingle bells, he said. St. Peter was pleased by this and let him in.

The second man pulled a lighter from his pocket and lit it. This represents festive candles, he said. Welcome, said St. Peter.

The third man pulled a pair of gold coloured (to keep this on topic) ladies panties from his pocket and waved them about. St. Peter didn't look too pleased. What on earth have those to do with Christmas, he demanded. They're Carol's, said the third man.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

In church one Sunday, the vicar was giving a sermon, the theme of which was that for everything that happens in life, a reference can be found in the bible.

At the end of the service, a lady approached him. I liked your sermon today, she told him. However, she said, having read the bible from cover to cover, I declare that I haven't come across any reference to PMS.

The vicar thought about it for some time. Then a smile of enlightenment came over his face. I recall something which fits the bill, he said. The reference is in the New Testament and reads 'And Mary rode Joseph's ass all the way to Bethlehem'.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Merry Christmas, everyone. (Smile)

CG

CoBra(too) (12/24/99; 08:07:52MDT - Msg ID:21603)
Ai is our custom Christmas Eve Celebrations are beginning in this part -
of the world and I would again like to extend my heart felt
wishes to all, who make this site the home of so many kindred spirits, for a merry and golden Christmas and the season of relaxed contemplation.
Thank you all and thank you MK for your golden present I've had the privilege to draw so much assurance, learning and education.
Sincere regards CB2

Canuck Gold (12/24/99; 07:53:16MDT - Msg ID:21602)
From this morning's paper
Friday, December 24, 1999

Cambior, burned by gold price hedging, restructures debt while it scrambles to sell assets

MONTREAL (CP) -- Cambior Inc. (CBJ-T) , a gold producer that was burned badly by the gold price recovery in October, has reached a restructuring agreement with creditors who are owed $212 million US.

Loans will be extended to Dec. 31, 2000, while Cambior raises money by selling gold or base metal assets, the
company said Thursday.

Cambior has agreed to make an interim payment of $75
million US to financial creditors by June 30.

When the gold price soared to $322 US an ounce in early
October, Cambior's price hedging program faced a potential
loss of $32.4 million US. That's because Cambior had a
commitment to sell about 900,000 ounces at $287 US an
ounce, among other contracts.

Cambior said the hedging portfolio has been reduced and
restructured. As of Wednesday, its gold hedging had been
reduced to 1.8 million ounces at an average price of $333 US
an ounce, including a deferred gain of $11 US an ounce, and
the naked call position had been reduced to 784,000 ounces
at an average price of $349 US an ounce.

On Thursday, gold was quoted on the spot market at $286.70 US an ounce.

The company is a diversified gold producer with operations
throughout North and South America. Its holdings include the
Doyon division in Quebec.

On the Toronto stock market Thursday, Cambior shares
closed at $1.55 apiece, up five cents. In late September, the stock traded above $6.

Number Six (12/24/99; 5:06:51MDT - Msg ID:21601)
Did someone say they were ***shorting*** Oil?
Egads, I've bet $10k on the wrong horse!

Number Six (12/24/99; 5:05:46MDT - Msg ID:21600)
Y2K: Essay Overview, Commentaries and e-mail Responses
from another gold site :o)
Y2K: Essay Overview, Commentaries and e-mail Responses

Hadn't realized how many essays I wrote for gold-eagle.com until I counted them. There are now over twenty with several more in the pipeline before Y2K toasts my trusty 486. Actually, I'm in the process of trying todownload a BIOS/Windows 95 upgrade which may or may not work. At any rate, those of you who feel one of the benefits of Y2K will be I won't write about it anymore may yet still prevail.


These twenty essays covered several subjects before I became, how shall we put it politely, highly interested in Y2K-sounds better than obsessed I think. Besides writing about Y2K I've found time to write about Politics, Economics, The Federal Reserve and what I'd call Gold Bug Philosophy. The Politics came in "Clinton's True Legacy", of which the words are devastatingly accurate. It's safe to say that I'm not a fan of our child king.


The Economics came in "July 4th Surprise" and "The Recession Heard Round the World." If you had followed my July 4th advice when it was written in April of 1998, you would have made some money when the stock market fell to 7500. Heck, if I had any money and had followed my own advice I would have made some money too! The other essay also was very accurate in its descriptions of the Asian Flu.


Mr. Greenspan comes in for some deserving criticism in both "Why Alan Greenspan needs Depends Diapers" and "The Fed's Fatal Flaw." The only addition is that now I'm seeing more new ten dollar bills than I did even two weeks ago. So maybe Mr. Greenspan read my article. My vision of Mr. Greenspan, wearing his Merlin hat and Wizard robe, standing at the bathroom door trying to get the inflation bubbles back into the bathtub is priceless. Pandora had her box; now, Alan has his bubble bath bottle called inflation.


Gold Bug philosophy is first explored in my introductory essay, "What is Money" written back in March of 1998. A fine primer on goldbugism(is that a word?), if I do say so myself. This was followed by what I feel, and also some others who emailed me, is a gold bug classic, "That Golden Moment." This definitive gold classic was followed by my "Why American Gold Eagles are being Rationed." This being an essay that some have had trouble understanding the point of. To one of the usenet posters who questioned whether I understood that American Gold Eagles were sold at a premium to their gold prices-yes I do. It's how much above the actual gold price are you willing to pay? I still can't get some to understand that there is plenty of gold around, thousands of tons of it in fact. The only constraint is the desire to specifically have American Gold Eagles, versus Austrian, South African, Canadian or even Chinese gold coins. And not just any American Gold Eagles, but the smaller tenths, quarters and half ounces. Gold is $400 an ounce when you buy it in tenths. There is no logical reason to pay this premium. By all means buy some small gold coins, say an ounce or two, but buy 100 ounces of silver instead of paying 30% premiums on gold tenths. This being my opinion, my final opinion, on the so called gold coin shortage. Of which the two definitions of shortages, massive price increases and supply disruptions, have yet to appear. If Gold Eagles are so damn hard to find then why isn't the gold price $1000 an ounce? Oh well, take away the 5 billion quarters and the Politically Correct dollar coins and we'd see how much of a Gold Eagle coin shortage we'd have.


My final essay called, "Britain's Blair bashes Goldbugs" also warns against gold bug illusions. To be blunt, I've lost money on all the gold and silver I've ever bought. And I don't care because I bought them as a protection and not an investment. There is no way I intend to join the bank run horde. My meager stash will expand ten fold, if the worst Y2K fears happen, and I will survive.


Just as an aside, one of the vending machine technicians showed me the new dollar coin the other day. It seems they are being given out to companies for vending machine testing prior to their introduction next April. He said that he has to sign a log for them and that the coins are strictly inventoried. The coin is the same size as the detestable Susan B. Anthony coin, with a bronze/goldish hue to it. Looks like some form of token you put in video games at the arcade to me. He also said that paper $1 bills would cease to be made as of December 31st. While it is nice that the coin has a gold color, it has a cheap subway token feel to it in my opinion. To be honest, the Sacajawea engraving looks like a Neanderthal with long hair to me. All in all, I wasn't impressed. Now if only it had been made out of real silver or gold.


It seems that Alan has flooded the USA with paper fiat money in the last 30 days. News reports indicate an 18% annual rate of money supply increase, massive import trade imbalances(well beyond historical norms and off the scale actually), and media reported shortages of both pennies and quarters. The signs refusing change to fifties and hundreds are still prominent in the coffee shops. The looks of appreciation I get when I pay in ones or fives is still there on the minimum wage drones at other places. So what is going on here? How can Alan the Magician increase the money supply 18% and still have spot shortages? Simple. Y2K. Despite the media spin campaign, people really did mean it when they said they would stash $500. I did a little math at a web site estimating Y2K cash withdrawals. Briefly, $500 from the rabble and some withheld by small business and cash disappears from the economy. It's called money velocity and its creaming Mr. GreenSpan right now. We'll know for sure in two weeks.


As the Old Testament Prophet Amos says, "I'm not a prophet or the son of a prophet, but a sheepherder from Tekoa", so I say, "I'm not a Y2K expert or a computer expert, but simply a curious amateur from the Pacific Northwest." In the great scheme of trickle down economics there are those who are peed upon and those who pee on others-in this United States few are the dogs and many are the fire hydrants. This fire hydrant has no ax to grind, product, book, video or agenda to sell. I've simply looked at the facts as they appear to me in my Y2K journey and used reason, logic and judgment to come to my conclusions. In all of this, I've sought to be open, honest and allow the reader to come to their own conclusions about Y2K. If you don't agree with me, then don't. It's not like I'm going to commit hara-kiri or anything. Really.


Way back in the early days of Y2K, say early 1998 when I first heard of it and began investigating it on my own, I didn't understand its implications. I even emailed Ed Yourdon two or so times back then and asked him questions-even more amazingly he briefly replied. And I was a skeptic too back then. Back then I doubted that so simple an error could have so large an impact, over such a broad spectrum of human activity and with a global reach to boot. Or maybe I thought there was still time to fix it back in spring 1998. So my first Y2K essay was, "The Year 2000 Derby- A Computer Parable", an attempt to explain Y2K to people like myself who weren't sure what Y2K meant. While it appears quaint to me now, especially considering what my research has now shown me, the scene of bubba running naked around the racetrack is a favorite of mine. My next Y2K essay came months later in early 1999. This one was the single most important essay I've ever written for gold-eagle.com. I said it then; I say it now. I meant it then; I mean it now. If you haven't read, "Personal Preparations for Y2K", then stop reading this and read it right now. Even though there are only days and hours left, you can still follow some of its practical advice.


In early 1999 I had my Y2K wake up call. It was only after the "December 31st 1998 with a year for testing" scam was exposed a complete fraud and lie that I began to turn "doomer." A doomer usenet defined as one who sees doom and gloom from Y2K and a "polly" is a Pollyanna who sees no problems at all from Y2K. With two weeks to go, I think the current evidence makes the doomer cause much more plausible at least to me.


So in 1999 my Y2K essays began to take on a Y2K will be bad and this is why tinge. I've sent one of these off to the Wall Street Journal with an invitation to publish it and expose any flaws in my reasoning. But they never bothered to reply and certainly didn't run it. Y2K will be devastating to the elite because they will get blindsided by their own ignorance and arrogance. They really don't take it seriously even at this late a date. We're arresting terrorists on our borders with plans to destroy the Space Needle, overseas is likely to go into chaos and our leaders are still sticking with this 72 hour crap. Were they born stupid, or did they learn it?


In mid November I decided that the time was short enough that I could begin a more candid Y2K assessment. An assessment that would not have been possible earlier in the year for both political and personal reasons. Bluntly put, these recent Y2K essays would have brought down too much political heat on gold-eagle.com. Further, my personal life was undergoing some stress during 1999 which distracted me from Y2K. I was also continuing my own Y2K preparations as well as taking six weeks off during the summer to drink beer, grow a beard, have a mid-life crisis and write a yet unpublished book. So I had much more on the plate than Y2K during 1999.


I've written more about Y2K in the last few weeks than ever before and with good reason. No Messiah complex, but I feel it is my duty to tell the truth about Y2K as I see it. You certainly won't get this kind of information from the mainstream corporate whore press. "My Y2K Spin Control Example: GAO Report" showed that. Just last week another report was issued that supports my essay. It predicts widespread water and sewer failures across the United States and yes, we'll know for sure in two weeks or so.


Some of you have responded to my essays with e-mail comments that gold-eagle has forwarded to me. My essay "Y2K Global Military Implications" prompted several responses from readers. One gentleman commented that my essay was "very accurate and can happen." Another thought I underestimated the United States ability to "kick China's ass" if they tried anything in the Panama Canal. One gentleman ps'd "thank you for your website and for all the articles that have enlightened me over the past several months." To which I say amen to gold-eagle. com. One man wrote that he had a dream several years ago which confirmed my Chinese first strike essay ending with "I hope both of us are mistaken." I agree.


I also received a long e-mail from a lady requesting advice about what to buy from China. The brief answer is everything that you use in daily life. The United States domestic shoe and textile industries have been destroyed by China and NAFTA. So, buy all the clothes, shoes, bedding, T-shirts, etc. you think you will need for the next year and play it safe. Most of our electronics, computers and electric kitchen stuff comes from overseas or Mexico. Six months of food seems adequate to me, I'd concentrate on sundries, toiletries and the like. Don't forget heat and light also, but see my Personal Preps for a more detailed analysis.


She also wanted to know what I thought about Okinawa and the potential for nuclear radiation from Japanese plants as well as my opinion on a Chinese first strike on Okinawa. Well, I hadn't thought about the Marine Division on Okinawa or I would have included it with the strike on Yokohama. So yes, in my first strike scenario there would be a strike on South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Okinawa. You'd want to kill as many American sailors and marines as you could in port wouldn't you? Prior to the e-mail and the Japanese nuclear plant leak I hadn't given Japan much thought as a nuclear meltdown candidate. But now, it's certainly plausible. Besides, North Korea simply has to put conventional bombs into South Korea's nuclear plants to cause massive radioactive leaks. All of this radiation would end up on the West coast of the United States. She concludes "I would like to say that it is God's work you are doing, to try and save people from hunger and thirst and great suffering." Underneath all my doomerism beats the heart of an idealist. Thanks for understanding my motives.


"Y2K A Global Time of Troubles", brought several more emails. Now I would drop the for so long from the opening sentence to make it more Churchhillian. Patricia "enjoyed my article because it definitely tells it the way it is" and "it was unbelievably on track." Thanks. Vronsky writes me that I'm on top of gold-eagles "hit parade." A fellow early 70's high school graduate now a programmer writes that he "loved my article." Yet another followed a link from the ultimate bomb throwing doomer Gary North who linked to gold-eagle.com with my GAO spin essay. He writes, "Doug, I'm amazed that I overlooked your commentaries... I'm glad to see someone is talking about the myriad adverse affects of Y2K...For all it's worth, keep up the good work." I plan to.


"Y2K Entropy, Synergy and Dam Movies" was one of several that Teague Harper posted to usenet calling it "one of the truly great commentaries on Y2K. Enjoy." My essays started several posts from Docdwrf and Ron Kenyon who think I'm an idiot. It was the evolution comments that set them off as they think I'm some kind of scientific Luddite. Well, I do know what an open and closed system is and I still don't see how adding sunlight to a primordial soup ends up with a human being. For that, you need intelligent, planned thought and purpose-aka God. My concept of God is best explained by the Old Testament's Daniel Chapter 7 verses 9 and beyond. "Behold I looked and the Ancient of Days took his seat. His clothing was white like snow and the hair of his head was white like wool....A river of fire was flowing out from his throne...I saw one like a Son of Man approach and be led into his presence...the Son of Man was given authority and dominion..." So, if you have a problem with my contempt for evolution don't tell me, tell the Ancient of Days sitting on the throne with the fire coming out from it.


Another gentleman wrote that "You have made sense out of it from the "common" practical perspective." This was always my goal. He also writes that "It is the best encompassing phenomenological perspective on the subject that I have had the privilege to lay eyes on." As soon as I find out what phenomenological means I will feel complimented. He could have called me a child molester for all I know. His friend also emailed me and thanked me for my "view on entropy...a very functional definition..."


"Y2K The Constitution, Martial Law and Dictatorship", brought an e-mail from a gentleman who said that "I hit the nail right on the head." "Just wanted to let you know that there are a lot of people out there who feel the same way you do." I certainly hope so or else America is doomed.


Finally, there is one e-mail from a gentleman who says that "either through embarrassment or fear I will spend the first few months of 2000 huddled in my bunker." Well, I don't own a bunker and if you read my Y2K essays you would find several comments that indicate I'm not a big bunker fan. I didn't even like Archie Bunker on "All in the Family." For the record, I have never thought that bunkerism was a practical Y2K response for the vast majority of Americans. I personally intend to usher Y2K in with thousands of other people in downtown Portland and see what happens. Of course, I will be watching what happens around the world both before I go to work and after I get off. And I plan to have my 12 gauge shotgun handy no matter what happens. Assuming the grid stays up, I should be just fine. What. Don't you believe Kossi the Klown? If the grid goes down, then all bets are off. I will be dead and not have to worry about things.


As for my being embarrassed, say what? What have I got to be embarrassed about? Am I embarrassed that I wrote essays that sought to inform people about Y2k? Am I embarrassed I wrote essays that analyzed the corporate lies and misinformation campaign? Am I embarrassed that I analyzed Y2K from a total perspective and not just the computer code? Nope. Nor am I embarrassed that some, or all of my predictions should happen to be wrong. I hope they are, because some of them are pretty grim. I just call the shots as I see them and let the fan blow it where it will. As a great signature says, "The penalty for my being wrong about Y2k is embarrassment. The penalty for you being wrong is death." I'll take embarrassment any day.


WHO WILLS CAN-WHO TRIES DOES-WHO LOVES LIVES


Doug McIntosh


21 December 1999


PERMAFROST (12/24/99; 4:11:24MDT - Msg ID:21599)
The difference between bid/asking price on gold coins...
...in the country I'm currently residing is ONLY 3%! ALL EXPENSES INCLUDED (Tax etc.). If I were to concurrently buy and sell a coin on the spot, I stand to lose only 3%. When I inquired about coin buying while visiting LA, I was astounded to hear the premium stands at something like 25%!
Don't you think that this is an egregious case of a double standard, as gold is as much of an investment vehicle as Microsoft stock, whether paper mongers agree or not? Wouldn't there be a riot on Wall Street if 8% tax was charged on every transaction of MSFT stock? Isn't this an unfair and probably illegal deterrent to buying gold as opposed to toilet paper? Shouldn't GATA include this in their agenda as well?

Netking (12/24/99; 3:09:50MDT - Msg ID:21598)
Elevator Guy / Seasons Greetings
Sir Elevator guy (21555) answers;
Did you short crude? > Better believe it brother.
Signifigant drops lately! > per above.
Gold is showing signs of life. > The sleeping giant begins to awaken.
Y2K aproaches. What will it yield? > Depends how fast the dominos begin to fall, suffice to say the trigger will not be found to be the cause of it but will start it. There will be some sorrows for the world this year to come I suspect. But for those who have prepared relief & joy.

Wishing you & all yours a happy & safe Christmas.(Jesus is the reason for the season)

Appreciated all of your excellent input & comments this year - Thanks, especially to our fine sponsor MK(USA Gold).



PERMAFROST (12/24/99; 2:53:11MDT - Msg ID:21597)
I'll wrap it up with an interesting philosophical quote...
(Oblige me this non sequitur; perspective building it is.)

"To ask is merely to proclaim surreptitiously that one knows, for the seeker of knowledge presumes that he's capable of distinguishing truth from falsehood--this would only have been possible if one knew the answer BEFORE the asking of the question." --Ari Excel

PERMAFROST (12/24/99; 2:47:36MDT - Msg ID:21596)
Thus;
The "victory" of gold may very well herald the demise of mankind. Still, I'd "get me some", even if it were just to enable me to buy a fine bottle of cognac to enjoy while Rome is burning.

PERMAFROST (12/24/99; 2:38:30MDT - Msg ID:21595)
My Sentiment...
The current state of affairs can be described as the hapless but voluntary disintegration of MONEY which is the foundation of what we call 'civilization'. I am not talking about a deflationary, Kondratieff Winter recurrence of a cyclical economic phenomenon. No; it's the WORD of man read: his trustworthiness and integrity perishing on the cross of his greed and debauchery.
'Foundation' is predicated upon a 'Founder'. Destroyer is 'Founder' no more.

PERMAFROST (12/24/99; 2:31:01MDT - Msg ID:21594)
Hailing from a "Third World Country"! Mes Compliments to you all!
Dear Forum particants,

I have stumbled upon this Shoe Box while shuffling my cyber feet to locate the LBME site. After a few weeks of perusing the postings, especially those by the Elders, I feel obliged to express my appreciaton and gratitude for the disseminaton of REAL knowledge pertaining to the Financial World.

Goldy Locks Guy (12/24/99; 2:10:32MDT - Msg ID:21593)
***MY TOP FIVE EVENTS for GOLD MARKET 1999***

January 1, 1999 USA Gold Starts Off Guessing

In one of the strangest ways of bringing in 1999, MK of USA Gold kicked off the new year with a contest of guessing the contract price of February Gold on January 8th. One Wallstreet analyst is quoted, saying " This type of Tomfoolery seems to go on around that place quite often....with the prize being some kind of gold or silver coin. Perhaps this motley crew just likes collecting antique investment strategies....in any case, let them fill their piggy banks, we here at Wallstreet know how to play "real" games with money.".....No truer words have ever been spoken.....Seem's like all Wallstreet has these days is "Play money". (Monopoly anyone?)


March 31, 1999 USA Gold Members Find Intrigue in Hunting the Headless Horseman

Today marks the end of the first quarter of 1999 as MK of USA Gold again indulges his flock in another contest of wit and wisdom -Guessing what the 5th Horseman is-. Perhaps MK is applying a little balm to the wounds of the gold bugs, after they have watched the price of gold and silver careen down the bumpy roads of the Precious Metal charts. Immediatly after learning that Warren Buffet wasn't about to comment on his intentions towards his massive silver "abduction" from the previous year, the metal's curtly went into a shame spiral that seemingly doesn't have an end. One Wallstreet analyst was quoted, saying "Those party goones at USA Gold are at it again. I think this MK fellow must be a closet Gladiator with all of the contests he puts his subject through. These goldmeisters need a reality check. If the winners are smart, they will sell the coins they win and buy stocks on the Dow and watch their money tree sprout like the Giant Bean Stalk." It seems that the USA Gold followers feel the money that most people have made on the Dow is about as fictional as Jack and the Bean Stalk, but indeed may have a giant that ends up falling out of the sky.


June 30, 1999 Christmas Spirit Comes Six Months Early

As the finacial world moves out of the second quarter of 1999, the talk of the town is the Gold sales that will take place on July 6 with the BOE. Earlier there were reports of near riotous conditions in the UK as the common people called in to complain about selling off of the countries gold reserves. The price of gold continues lurching it's way down the wormhole of manipulation. It's rumored that the BOE has actually turned into a charitable organization as it seeks every way possible to depress the price of gold before they sell it....perhaps to give others less fortunate a chance to play in their (BOE) sandbox??? NOT. One Wallstreet analyst was qouted, saying " It's just like Disney's Aladin and Jasmine song "........A whole new world....." in the animated feature 'Aladin'. I think Disney is onto something. It IS a new world on Wall Street! Investing is stocks is like riding on a magic carpet...." Yeah right, but most people don't have a Genie to catch them should they fall off. Some gold bugs feel the Dow's magic carpet will soon come, shall we
say..."unraveled"??


September 31, 1999 Mount St. Helen's Looks Like Ant Hill Compared to Gold Explosion

The ending of the third quarter and beginning of the forth has lots of "nuggets" (pun intended) to "pick" at. (again, pun intended)...Most importantly, we have had a complete turnaround in the price of gold....a volcanic explosion that rained down fire and brimstone upon financial analysts, Gold mining companies and Central Banks.(MAGnificent MAGMA!) But to the goldbugs of the world, it was a beautiful sight. Let the lava flow, baby! At one point it seemed that the volcano would burn all the paper in it's path, but as we enter into the 4th quarter of this year, it looks like this lava is cooling and crusting a bit. (Isn't this how rubies form?) Analysts from Wallstreet were basically caught with their pants down when the announcement came out about restricting the sale and leasing of gold for the next five years. One analyst was quoted, saying " It was like being caught without any toilet paper." Gold advocates have no sympathy as they well know that the Wallstreet bulls have plenty of other paper to use. Not that this was the only fly in the ointment. There is Y2k coming on strong, the Fed's pumping billions into the system, crude oil shooting up like Ole Faithful...what's the world coming to? USAgold members feel their vindication drawing nearer and nearer as the axe falls faster towards the root of the tree. (Hmm....there's that money tree again)

December 23, 1999 Financial World in Turmoil as USAGold Frolicks with Members

It's almost time to call it a new year on this old planet earth....and what do we have at USAGold??? You got it! Another contest. But it's quite a common sentiment around there that you don't have to enter a contest to be a winner. You already are winning if your favorite color is GOLD. It's written that the street's of Heaven are paved with gold....It's obivous that there's at least SOMEONE that has good taste in landscaping! One Wallstreet analyst was quoted, saying "Well, all I can say is if the streets in Heaven are paved with gold, I don't want to go there." Goldbugs can see why he would be most uncomfortable living in paradise.

IN THE FEW SHORT DAYS AHEAD

Since gold's cameo appearance a few months back, in recent weeks it has tested some low points, yet seems to be staging another performance as we enter into the millinium. To this reporter, the most important thing that has continually taken place this year is the USAgold forum. It's a treasure all in its self. Where else is there such a well rounded mix of news, speculation and ideas on the markets that we all are addicted to? The popular forum is much like an orphanage for the prophetic few that can actually see into the future, and know that there is a place of sheltor and friendship for them. One Wallstreet analyst was quoted saying...."Yeah, those goldbugs are gonna end up like Orphan Annie or some little lost girly like that." But that analyst obviously doesn't know the rest of the story....the inevitable ending is one that will quickly become a classic of Rags to RICHES........This is Goldie Locks Guys with "The Yellow Streak Yearly Commentary"...Best wishes for the NEW Year.






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