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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/24/98
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
pa kua
(9/24/98; 22:49:44MST
- Msg ID:162)
U.S. Monetary Policy
Your FORUM is appreciated.A
question that puzzles me is the seemingly open attempts by the
Fed and the bank interests to "correct" the stock market
boom, and lower the dollar's value in an orderly way (which makes
sense) without concern for the monetary situation abroad. The
structure in place since 1946 is not going to last more than a
year(?) If we just patch it again now. A crash would be ideal
for wealthy interests: they could buy cheap stocks and gold etc.
If not a crash, then we could face a repudiation of our debt down
the line, perhaps in a year. There are many details that could
be mentioned, but this is the essence of my puzzle. Do some really
believe that crashing gold and bringing the stock markets down
will not do us great harm as a nation?
tww
(9/24/98; 22:31:18MST
- Msg ID:161)
bmacd/investing
Thankyou for your insight.
I presently hold some fn and en as well as rangy. I want to increase
my gold exposure. With limited funds would 10k split between three
majors or a pm mutual be better exposure. Thanks again
pa kua
(9/24/98; 21:20:24MST
- Msg ID:160)
U.S. Monetary Policy
Your FORUM is appreciated.A
question that puzzles me is the seemingly open attempts by the
Fed and the bank interests to "correct" the stock market
boom, and lower the dollar's value in an orderly way (which makes
sense) without concern for the monetary situation abroad. The
structure in place since 1946 is not going to last more than a
year(?) If we just patch it again now. A crash would be ideal
for wealthy interests: they could buy cheap stocks and gold etc.
If not a crash, then we could face a repudiation of our debt down
the line, perhaps in a year. There are many details that could
be mentioned, but this is the essence of my puzzle. Do some really
believe that crashing gold and bringing the stock markets down
will not do us great harm as a nation?
Goldfly
(9/24/98; 21:05:32MST
- Msg ID:159)
Re: FOA's The Direction of Gold
All right! Friend of Another,
I like your thinking! Mr. Another? What do you say about this?
"By the end of this year" is laying it on the line.
Friend, you speak of a price run to $1000. In an earlier post,
you spoke of the figure $6000. Where do you see the price (not
value!) of gold come E-Day, January 1st? How about the 1st quarter
of '99? (I do enjoy the prognostications of the learned!) GF
bmacd
(9/24/98; 20:57:49MST
- Msg ID:158)
awalrus
It's sort of a chicken and
egg thing. You need the investors to come in to push gold convincingly
over the $300 mark and hold, and then more come in. But what pushes
it up to begin with. I totally agree with you. Perception has
to change and it may be starting to, albeit slowly. The more confidence
is lost in the paper we know as money, the more investors will
turn to gold to protect themselves. The only confissence I have
in paper money now is that it gets printed at an alarming rate.
bmacd
(9/24/98; 20:52:20MST
- Msg ID:157)
CHina's Gold Reserves
Does anyone have any details?
I heard that China might be doubling it's gold reserves.
Friend
of Another (9/24/98;
20:31:48MST - Msg ID:156)
COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS!
All: I am having major link
problems as my feed is thru the caribbean/bahanas into Florida
(USA). Am told the Hurricane is the problem? Will return ASAP.
bmacd
(9/24/98; 20:02:20MST
- Msg ID:155)
tww
Well you asked for opinions,
so I'll give you mine. I'ld imagine that the best bang for your
buck would be a junior that explodes. But they are risky and volitile
as if gold isn't volitile enough. Plus you've got to pick a good
one. Personally, and I've been investing in gold stocks for years,
I would always stay with the bigger names. While most of these
have close to doubled in some cases over the last few weeks (Placer
Dome from $12-13 low to $22.00 area today- Canadian $, TVX under
$2 to over $3.50, as examples), when gold moves back to the $400
range they will at double and triple again. WHen gold was last
in the $400 USD range, TVX was $15.00 (CDN), Battle Mountain $11.00,
Placer over $40.00. I held all through the last couple of years,
because I had no worry that these companies would disappear. They
weren't small, so it was just waiting for the gold price to recover.
I guess it's my way of decreasing risk. Ian MCAvity once told
me that initially gold stocks well outperform the bullion percentage
wise. As above gold from $300-$400 is 33%, but the stocks will
move 200-300%. There is a point though where the percentage climb
in the stocks slows down and at that point it pays to hold bullion.
I have no doubt at all that he is correct. Again only my opinion-
everone has different methods. I like to sleep at night, although
my entire portfolio is gold and mining with some oil stocks, I
still feel OK because of the companies that I have.
jinx44
(9/24/98; 18:57:14MST
- Msg ID:154)
Keeping a hold on private gold
Thank you to everyone for your
postings. This is an enlightened place to hang out in. I certainly
agree with the concepts contained herein. I think holding the
physical is my choice due to potential market clearing problems
and the ever-mentioned Y2K issue. My DEEP concern is around the
USGovt and its' cavalier attitude towards the lowly tax-paying
citizen. I understand that EC countries do not currently impose
import duties on officially minted bullion coin. If the USG pulls
an 'FDR' on private gold, perhaps a quick flight to Europe would
keep personal wealth out of harms way. I would hope that this
country would not tolerate confiscation again, but given the insoucience
of the public, who knows? Can anyone comment on strategies to
preserve wealth against confiscation? How far should one go towards
maintaining their financial safety in these troubled times. Will
there be any sovereign safe-haven for those of us who value freedom?
I hope I haven't upset anybody with my questions, but I think
they are pertinent to the situation. thanx
TYoung
(9/24/98; 18:46:57MST
- Msg ID:153)
Derivatives...
I mentioned to Another the
other day that I thought derivatives would cause loss of confidence
in the US$ and asked what he thought would be the cause. Well,
looks like derivatives are at the forefront. I was really just
pitching a high fast ball to a high fast ball hitter.... Another...but
I'd still like a comment. Yes? Tom
awalrus
(9/24/98; 17:48:36MST
- Msg ID:152)
Critical Move Time
I'm a lurker for the past year
at the Kitco site... I'm 100% percent invested in gold stock via
a mutual fund and have a small cache of 1/4 ounce coins. I have
the feeling that if gold spot can climb past USD $300 and stay
there for a couple of days, we will see a $10 up-move... which
might be enough to attract small investors in sufficient numbers
to create a steady rise. With the XAU above it's 200 day moving
average and more mention of gold as a possible alternative in
the mainstream press, it would appear critical mass is building
for a heady move. Or am I wrong??
tww
(9/24/98; 17:48:14MST
- Msg ID:151)
gold investing
Thankyou for this most educational
site. I have learned a great deal in the two months I have been
reading the market report. I have two questions for anyone willing
to assist in my education. Firstly, if we are hopefully in the
early throws of a gold bull, where is the best "bang for
your buck". Physical? Large producer? or junior? Secondly,
if I am speculating on a penny stock, when does the stock price
appreciate the most i.e. exploration stages? drilling confirming
gold or not until there is a mine in production? The reason I
ask is because I see some small producers with share prices only
marginally higher than other companies along ways from mining
stages. Thankyou for your help.
Victoria
(9/24/98; 17:34:06MST
- Msg ID:150)
Thanks and a few questions:
Thank you USAGOLD for putting
this forum together. Thank you Another and Friend of Another for
your considerable contributions. I am not sufficiently versed
in global economics to contibute to the discussions. However,
I do have a few questions. Friend of Another - I believe that
in an earlier post you hinted at the possibility of government
interference with gold mining companies as they find their currency
and future prospects erroding. Does this prospect lead you to
favour physical gold over mining shares as a wealth preservation
vehicle for the individual investor? From all that Another and
Friend of Another has written does it follow that countries that
are rich in gold and/or rich in oil will achieve a far greater
role on the international stage than they currently enjoy (South
Africa, Venezuala, ...)? Could the membership to the G7 change
dramatically and if so do you care to provide your educated guesses
as to who would leave and who would join? As gold prices start
to rise, for all of the reasons that have been stated, do you
foresee much of a time lag before the price of oil starts to rise?
I thank you all in advance for your consideration of my questions.
USAGOLD
(9/24/98; 16:01:30MST
- Msg ID:148)
*****UPDATE TO ALL*****
We think Aragorn's idea a good
one, so we will let the discussion run as suggested from this
point on until the archives are set up. Jeff Marett tells me it
would require too much in the way of man-hours to repost past
discussions at this point (about two hours). Perhaps it would
be good if Friend of Another posted what he saved. Jeff assures
me the archives will be operating properly within the next 48
hours. Sorry for the inconvenience. We're doing our best.
turtle
(9/24/98; 13:47:32MST
- Msg ID:145)
re leaving posts as one file
Michael, I like Aragorn's suggestion--is
it possible? I seem to keep losing portions of the postings. Thank
you for all you're doing.
Aragorn
III (9/24/98;
10:56:12MST - Msg ID:142)
Yesterday's discussion
Unfortunately, I find as I
log in this morning that yesterdays posts from Noon to Midnight
are inaccessible. Michael: maybe until the archives are in place,
you could simply let all of the discussion remain as one continuous
file...until the point is reached that it is too large.(?)
turtle
(9/24/98; 10:52:49MST
- Msg ID:141)
FOA/Pete
Yes, please I would like to
read the whole discussion--I remember yesterday's post (repost).
The UBS is part of the bailout of LTCM--does aubug think they
are in trouble with gold too?
USAGOLD
(9/24/98; 09:37:24MST
- Msg ID:139)
****UPDATE & WELCOME TO GOLDBUGS NEAR AND FAR****
We are going to offer THE ABCs
of GOLD INVESTING again today as an incentive to all first time
posters. You post; its out the door. We had several e-mails from
posters who didn't get their passwords in time to get a post up
before midnight, and some who didn't get the message yesterday.
Well, here's your chance. Same offer as yesterday until midnight
tonight. There's plenty to talk about, so there's no excuses.
It was nice to see all the posters last night and we hope the
unfolding events will draw even more today. Registrations are
still coming in at a steady rate and the lurker numbers are rising.
We are still working on the ARCHIVES. My position remains as stated
yesterday -- I want it as much as you do.
Friend
of Another (9/24/98;
09:31:38MST - Msg ID:138)
ARCHIVES?
AUBUG and TURTLE, I did the
smart thing this AM and saves yesterdays Noon to Midnight posts.
If anyone wants me to I will post the entire discussion at another
time. It was quite a bit. Turtle, Pete is a knowledgeable poster
I have seen on Kitco. To bad we lost it all, some of it was about
what is happening now! I will repost one item I presented earlier.
thanks
AUBUGx10
(9/24/98; 08:14:37MST
- Msg ID:137)
Defaults
rumour day. whats going on
with UBS?? announcement due shortly. any bets re default on short
position in gold
turtle
(9/24/98; 08:13:42MST
- Msg ID:136)
FOA to PETE
Dear FOA,who's Pete?--the last
msg I can find from 9/23 is Tyler Rose about 4:00. Michael, still
no archives?
Friend
of Another (9/24/98;
06:58:47MST - Msg ID:135)
MORE TO: Pete (9/23/98; 21:26:13MST - Msg ID:131)
Pete, To answer your questions:
Yes, this is only a very, very small tip of the iceberg. Many
of these people are short the gold paper market and they are the
ones in the know, at least we are told? And just look who is in
the rework group: Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter & Co., Travelers Group Inc. and UBS AG will make
up the committee.
Pete, I wonder how many tons they move in world gold markets!
The change in motion by the BIS, concerning gold and the Euro
is going to play them right into the European game plan! Read
a few of the last (Thoughts!) archives at USAGOLD. I may reprint
some of the things written here the last few days, it begins to
tell the story that is before us. The Fed will push money like
mad for now, but they will be raising rates like mad a little
later as the dollar falls off the charts! Keep up your analysis,
as you see things some of us don't catch. All minds don't work
the same and it helps to mix Gray Cells in different portions.
Thanks
Friend
of Another (9/24/98;
06:39:18MST - Msg ID:134)
Pete (9/23/98; 21:26:13MST - Msg ID:131)
Pete, Looks like you are on
top of the market news! Haven't seen you in a while. Another read
most of your old posts. Here is a partial copy of my (FOA) last
post on the old USAGOLD Another (Thoughts!) board. The full write
is still there in the archives.
Another had told me that a large default in paper gold was coming,
real soon. I didn't have a clue who it was. Now we have a BIG
clue!
(COPY AS FOLLOWS)
9/3/98 another archives
Michael, I'm looking for a large default in the paper gold market.
With the major CB only buying now something is about to give as
the most extended shorts can not cover. A default is most likely
part of a game plan to get the ball rolling. This spike in gold
will no doubt crush the dollar. The next few months will offer
the last period of time to roll out of dollar assets at a good
price. Of course, all of this is my opinion from and for the most
part, Another's.
(END OF POST)
Friend
of Another (9/24/98;
06:29:33MST - Msg ID:133)
Possible large default in gold paper? LTCM
Thursday September 24, 6:50
am Eastern Time LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Gold rose then paused
in early European trade on Thursday as bullion dealers sniffed
a possible recovery in prices and looked to New York for guidance.
London and Hong Kong dealers said another factor lifting prices
was market talk that a U.S. hedge fund was covering short gold
positions.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
