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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/23/2006 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Ten Bears (4/23/06; 22:20:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 143509) In the spirit of message (143484) Fascism in America won't come with jackboots, book burnings, mass rallies, and fevered harangues, nor will it come with black helicopters or tanks on the street. It won't come like a storm—but as a break in the weather, that sudden change of season you might feel when the wind shifts on an October evening: Everything is the same, but everything has changed. Something has gone, departed from the world, and a new reality will have taken its place. All the old forms will still be there: legislatures, elections, campaigns—plenty of bread and circuses. But "consent of the governed" will no longer apply; actual control of the state will have passed to a small and privileged group who rule for the benefit of their wealthy peers and corporate patrons. To be sure, there will be factional conflicts among the elite, and a degree of debate will be permitted; but no one outside the privileged circle will be allowed to influence state policy. Dissidents will be marginalized—usually by "the people" themselves. Deprived of historical knowledge by a thoroughly impoverished educational system designed to produce complacent consumers, left ignorant of current events by a corporate media devoted solely to profit, many will internalize the force-fed values of the ruling elite, and act accordingly. There will be little need for overt methods of control. The rulers will act in secret, for reasons of "national security," and the people will not be permitted to know what goes on in their name. Actions once unthinkable will be accepted as routine: government by executive fiat, state murder of "enemies" selected by the leader, undeclared wars, torture, mass detentions without charge, the looting of the national treasury, the creation of huge new "security structures" targeted at the populace. In time, this will be seen as "normal," as the chill of autumn feels normal when summer is gone. It will all seem normal. --Chris Floyd, November 10, 2001 Moscow Times (English edition) The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 18:12:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 143508) The West will not besiege 3 billion people During the last 100 years of oil trade, the present owners of oil and gas have become much brighter.Today, they control many more parameters allowing them to perfectly manage their oil-pricing in changing circumstances.It will become more and more difficult to play the different oil/gas owners off against each other. Oil/gas is a supply-driven and geopolitical market... where the rules of the game have changed. Oil and gas consumers will have to adapt to these new realities and the corresponding relations of power. They will have to adapt to a new situation which will be much more different from the present one than they (the consumers) think.No IMF whining will change anything to that.The oil/gas owners know since more than three decades that partial alternatives exist and they will tune their pricing management flexibly towards these alternatives.The Western oil/gas consumers should not think of besieging 3 billion people (Asia-Russia-Middle East.) mikal (4/23/06; 17:19:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 143507) Grand slam for Indian gold http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=124772 Four Es to Determine Gold Prices - Sangita Shah - Mumbai - April 24, 2006 - Newest look at gold demand in the world's largest gold repository. Caradoc (4/23/06; 14:50:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 143506) Crystal ball report/ interim highs for Ag/Au Human nature says that the herd won't start buying until silver approaches the $50s and gold is over $800. Not to worry: there's enough geopolitical nastiness in the offing (to say nothing of heartbreaking financial developments!)that we'll reach those numbers before the end of summer and may well be more than halfway there within 3 weeks.It's a basic rule of investing that the average guy loses, so both metals need to hurt the average "investor" before passing those numbers the second time. That way, only the right people will be onboard for the next leg up. Even if you're not a member of the elite, these "upsie downsies" provide opportunity to profit in the realm of paper, do nothing to the value of your stash, and actually allow you to add to it.Questions worth addressing:* Will the intermediate peaks of >$50 and >$800 happen at the same time?* How many dips between now and then? (Pick a number between 2 and 4.)* Will there be enough popular enthusiasm about the prospect for gold at >$1000 that TPTB decide to give Joe Sixpack another haircut before the biggest single move up in this generational bull market?* When gold moves to $1,642, how much will it overshoot that mark?* Given that I've always planned at some point to pull out of paper and be 95% solid metal/ 5% cash, the biggest question for me is how many of those bounces will allow profits to be taken in paper gold, mining stocks, and stock options? In other words, how long before everyone on the planet loses all faith in paper so that -- as predicted here years ago -- paper gold is literally at zero?On that last question, I figure at least one and maybe two bounces will allow paper profits, but I'm hedging my bets. Only 2/3 of last Wednesday's profits went into buying options as gold went back up past $607. The remaining 1/3 is now solid metal and securely stashed.If you haven't done so (and even if it means not buying an ounce or two), please heed Black Blade's repeated closing comment about having necessities on hand. Regards to all,Caradoc slingshot (4/23/06; 12:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 143505) Search for the Renaisance A few seconds had passed as though to get aquainted and then the air changed. The seated Knights began to slide their chairs away from the Oaken Table. Raising his weapons, the creature slowly backed up and dropped to the floor emitting a high shrill. "That can't be good" said Sir Toolie and now all the Knights were standing. They could hear him run about under the table as they strained to see him in the dimness. "How do you like my new friend?" Again the image of Cyrus filled the glass. "Remember my instructions" said Cyrus. A second high pitched shrill filled the room. It was then Sir Pritcho said. "Break the glass. We sure as heck do not need another one of these to enter the room" "No! we just have to cover it to break the union" said Sir M.K. Sir Topaz moved toward the mirror with his cape when the creature under the table showed himself, thrusting his sword at Sir Topaz's legs. The Knight backed up. Hearing the slapping of his weathered skin upon the stone it began to run faster and faster under the table. Startling the Knights, the first chair was kicked away from its appointed place. Again in order each chair was moved an unequal distance. Sir Mikal recognised what he was doing."He is creating obstacles for us in the dark and is using the Oaken Table as a shield" he yelled. The chairs stopped moving. "What next" said Sir Toolie.He hardly got the words from his lips and the creature made his way to the door. He withdrew a piece of metal and wedged it in the door latch so it could not be open,using the blade of his sword to bend it in place. Sir Topaz, quickly moved to cover the mirror with his cape. Before completetly covering they all heard Cyrus laugh. Having performed his task the creature turned on Sir Topaz. It was only that Sir Mikal was close that he was able to knock one sword from the creatures hand, otherwise Sir Topaz would of had a serious leg wound. The sword bounce across the stone floor. Clanging as it went. Unfortunately, he retrieved the weapon and retreated under the table. "Gee's Louise, What the heck are we dealing with?", said Sir Pritcho. Movement again under the Oaken Table."He is going for the Candles!", said Sir Toolie. Sounds of both creature and Knights footsteps moved toward the candle holder. The chairs placed in the way of the Knights slowed them down and the creature extinguished the precious light. Returning underneath the Oaken Table the Knights could hear him rejoice as things were going in his way. Sir M.K. and his Knights headed for the other candle holder to light the remaing candles for them to survive. When all the candles were lighted the creature growled. Looking under the Oaken Table from afar, Sir Mikal could see the luminesent eyes blink as they adjusted. Then came the clanging of metal. "Here he comes", said Sir Mikal.Slingshot-----------<> contrarian (4/23/06; 12:22:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 143504) From Kunstler--alt fuels et al http://www.kunstler.com/ Americans ought to regard the word "growth" with trepidation. When invoked by presidents and economists, it is meant to imply ideas like "more" or "better." It's a habit of thinking left over from the exuberant phase of the industrial age, when there was always more of everything to get. Nowadays, though, as we enter the terminal years of cheap energy, the word "growth" invokes a new set ideas. For instance, "impossible." With the price of oil edging toward $70-a-barrel now, and likely to flirt with $100 by the end of the year, the effect will be higher costs for virtually all products and services, and tremendous stress on every socioeconomic organism from the family to government at all levels to the Ford Motor Car Corporation. The only "growth" we might expect under these conditions is the growth in our exertions to stay where we are, and the truth is that many of the weak will simply fall behind. Another idea that "growth" might invoke would be a fear of an unstoppable rising population competing for scarcer resources: incomes, energy, food, shelter. Surely this is one of the specters behind the illegal immigration issue, a dawning recognition that the American cornucopia is becoming an emptier basket, with fewer fruits, less energy, and not many gold nuggets left in it. For those of us positioned against the suburban juggernaut, "growth" invokes the destruction of more landscape, the conversion of pastures and croplands into McHousing subdivisions, with a long menu of additional liabilities -- not least being the huge investment in a living arrangement with no future. One would think the "homebuilders" could see this coming -- with oil edging toward $70 -- but the truth is that their companies are programmed for only one kind of behavior -- to keep building 3000 square foot McHouses 27 miles outside Dallas, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Denver, et cetera. Since they won't change the programming, then they will continue their destructive behavior until circumstances make it impossible for them to continue -- when the housing bubble blows up in their faces -- and then the companies will just die. The cheap energy era led us into a climax of surpluses, and these surpluses represented the general "more-ness" and "better-ness" of late industrial society. In a post cheap energy world, accumulated surpluses will be meager to nonexistent. There is bound to be a scramble for whatever is left. Geopolitically, this means a contest for the world's remaining oil, which tends to be concentrated in just a few places. In each nation, there is likely to be a parallel scramble for whatever fruits, gold nuggets, and therms are still to be had, throwing off a lot of red-hot political sparks that will burn people. A lot of the remaining energy worldwide will be devoted to these scrambles, and thus essentially wasted. There are many ways of viewing this "growth" predicament, and some strategies we can turn to in the face of it. An obvious one is to change our behavior, to stop acting as though our destructive, terminal, and futile activities were beneficial or indispensable . For instance, we could yield to the reality that the age of mass motoring will have to end. Instead of desperately seeking "alternative fuels" to run our 100 million cars, we could make an effort to restore our railroads. Instead of a million McHousing starts out in the meadows and cornfields, we could repair our existing towns and cities. There is no reason why they cannot be rewarding, beautiful places. There may well be greater benefit in walking more and driving less. The well-off Americans who have visited Europe over the past several decades invariably notice this. Anyway, we are going to need every meadow, cornfield, and pasture that we have, because as cheap energy wanes, we are going to be desperate to grow enough food to feed ourselves -- another reason to be wary of alt.fuel fantasies based on growing crops dedicated to gasoline substitutes. One esteemed (and extremely shy) reader refers to the process of moving from a high entropy society to a sustainable one as "autonomic devolution." "Positive feedback driven social systems breed self-amplifying trends which ultimately self-destabilize," he writes. "Autonomic devolution societies consist of localized islands of self-sufficiency." I believe we are inevitably heading to that destination. The only thing I wonder about is how violent and destructive the process will have to be. Noble1 (4/23/06; 11:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 143503) Bush Strikes Out; Saudi Arabia Makes Out-With HU From Donna Abu-Nasr at the AP:SNIP:Oil rich Saudi Arabia and energy starved China signed defense, security and trade agreements Saturday on the first day of Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit...Hu's trip comes as Saudi Arabia opens up to Asia' growing economic powers in a bid to find stable markets for its oil, step up international diplomacy and show the West, particularly the United States, that if relations worsen, the kingdom has other alternatives, analysts say.Saudis say the pressure the U.S. Congress exerted to drive away a Dubai-based company...sent a message to Arab and Muslim investors that they are not welcome in the United States."There's a feeling among Saudi's that the U.S. Congress is deriding us, abusng us and insulting us," said Khaled al-Maeena, editor of the English-language Arab News daily."We need to maintain links to America, but we are not America's gas station. America has to realize we want friends, not masters."End SNIP.Saudi Arabia and others (Venezuela) are actively looking for and readily finding alternative markets for their oil.But rather than being flooded (paid) in USD (that they have difficulty spending) they may demand Another form of payment.The noose is being tightened. Soon the trap door may open.Noble1 Goldilox (4/23/06; 10:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 143502) Alt fuels @ TIH and Contrarian,Bio fuels might have a chance of helping if we didn't have fools like the governor of MN arranging a deal to sell a huge quantity of ethanol to China just when we need it most.Our governments' (PL) profligate spending will "tax" any and all efforts at economic recovery!They will continue to put the screws to the US taxpayers to fund their pork and chitlins administrations until general anger puts the fear of God into them. At that point they will engineer another Reichstag fire to soldify their control. As long as "security" is the fastest growing "industry", they'll ride their winners like any other "investor".No other alternatives from that point of view, really. contrarian (4/23/06; 08:58:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 143501) Invisible Hand--Oil http://www.kunstler.com/ It's the old geologists vs. economists argument.Geologists: we have arrived at Peak Oil.Economists: "it's not a question of supply, it's a question of cost" (from a Goldman Sachs report I've seen with my own eyes.)Personally, I believe the geologists, and that all this silly economists talk about "oil sands" is BS, as it takes too much energy to extract, and alternatives such as ethanol from corn, etc., aren't viable. These "economists" are just silly kids just out of idiotic Ivy League colleges with watered down and corrupted educational standards, that simply sell their goods to the highest bidder--not a meritocracy, but a moneytocracy. I sat next to one of them last October (from the London School of Economics) who I heard say one day "we have low inflation". And heaven knows how colleges have been corrupted by money from big money center "investment" banks trying to justify their parisitical existence!Kunstler has the real deal. contrarian (4/23/06; 08:48:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 143500) Invisible Hand--interesting link to check out http://911research.wtc7.net/talks/wtc/slides.html The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 08:38:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 143499) Osama, Gold & 9/11 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4936284.stmSNIPA new tape said to be from al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden attacks the West over its handling of Hamas. http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/cgi-bin/blogs/voices.php/2006/04/23/p7779Could you have stopped 9/11?By: Jesse HemingwaySNIPIn my opinion there was enough unclassified information available to know that Osama Bin Laden was preparing to strike the United States. Integrate the classified information that the United States Government had with the unclassified information concerning Osama Bin Laden we have a total breakdown in national security. I do not have the ability to determine who had pushed up the price of gold on May 21, 2001 yet it is an indication somebody was buying a considerable amount of gold to push the price up it that manner. That spike in the gold market happened very fast and a month later Osama Bin Laden made it common knowledge that an attack was going to happen. Now you have to look and evaluate this information and come to a conclusion and compare it to the version the United States Government has been telling you. The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 05:47:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 143498) More from The Observer: sterling to collapse with dollar http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1759567,00.html SNIPThe oil crisis of the mid-1970s took place after a period of strong economic growth, and was seriously inflationary. The latest crisis takes place when growth in the eurozone has been anaemic, and unions have precious little bargaining power - even though the unions in Germany are going through the motions. +If the pound goes down as well as the dollar (but presumably not as much) this may alleviate the problems of Britain's manufacturers. Sundeck (4/23/06; 05:42:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 143497) More tails to wag the golden dog http://www.telegraphindia.com/1060423/asp/business/story_6133967.asp Snip:"...Mumbai, April 22: Investors can now lap up as much gold as they like, be in the form of physical gold or units in a gold exchange-traded fund. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had allowed mutual funds to launch such schemes, which will invest in gold and gold-related instruments...."Sundeck: A couple of comments:1. These kinds of short-cuts to gold ownership are growing like topsy all over the world. Clearly there is money to be made in setting up and running the paper enterprises. I suspect we ain't seen nuthin' yet!2. Also, I suspect that these kinds of "gold funds" are going to lead to more volatility in the gold price as the herds rush alternatively into and out of such schemes. i.e. "Derivative feedback" to the price of the underlying asset...gold, in this case.3. I wonder how long before one of these things collapses, with a whole lot of "investors" clamouring for the gold that they thought they owned, but which either never existed or has been creamed off by the "administrators"?4. In the end, it won't matter a tinker's cuss, because the pricing will be decided by the big-time holders of gold who know value when they see it and go for the dog...not the tail....................Further comments:a. Good stuff on the forum over the last few days...keep it up...appreciated.b. The Invisible Hand has become very visible of late???c. Where do peole see gold going this week? My guts says "Up!";-) The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 05:37:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 143496) Do we need an IMF? Yes, but not this one http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1759237,00.html SNIPThis weekend may have been a step towards a new, positive IMF, which will help countries to help themselves, and steer the global economy away from self-destruction; but as finance ministers get back on their aircraft, confident they have defended their own policies against meddling, it's a good bet that at their next meeting, in Singapore, in six months' time, they will still be asking themselves what the point of it all is.==Are you sure there will be a next meeting? The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 05:29:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 143495) This will make my correspondent jump to his keyboard http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-2147565,00.html Today's London Sunday TimesThe more oil rises, the bigger the fallSNIPSLet me start with the basics. Are high oil prices being pushed up by runaway demand from China and India? Is the strength of the world economy in general pushing oil demand up at such a rate that it is ignoring the rise in prices? The global economy, according to the International Monetary Fund's twice-yearly world economic outlook, published last week, has "never had it so good". This is the fourth year in which global growth will top 4%, with this year's expansion set to hit a blistering 4.9%. The IMF thinks the current oil-price shock has worsened global imbalances, directly and indirectly adding to America's current-account deficit, and that it may prove more enduring than its predecessors. But it also notes that the economic impact has so far been modest, while adding the caveat that we may not be out of the woods yet. +So what's the outlook? In the short term anything is possible. A bit more tension on Iran and a couple of nasty hurricanes and $80, $100 or $120 a barrel could result. But the history of oil is that the bigger the upward spike, the sharper the subsequent fall. That is what gave us ultra-low prices, $10 oil, after big rises in both the 1980s and 1990sThe current boom in the world economy will fade, leading to a fall in global oil demand. There will be more supply, stimulated by current high prices. Dr Leo Drollas, chief economist at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, argues that through the current mess and confusion the fundamentals have not gone away, and they point to oil being too high at these levels. I agree. I haven't given up on $40 oil. It is just taking a bit longer to get back there. The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 05:12:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 143494) Microsoft versus European Union http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4926880.stm Microsoft is coming tomorrow to the EU court of first instance in LuxembourgSNIPSA Luxembourg courtroom is to play host to a crucial showdown between the European Commission and Microsoft. The software giant is appealing against the commission's decision to fine it hundreds of millions of dollars for allegedly breaking European Union competition law. The Commission ruled that Microsoft had been trying to hinder its rivals' attempts to make software systems which could work with its own Windows operating system. Over at the Radical Academy,http://radicalacademy.com/cgi-bin/eboard30/index.cgi?board=Main&message=2934,there's a lunatic arguing in his reply posted on Sat - Apr 22 - 5:41pm: that the court should say that Microsoft was not breaching its own property rights.http://radicalacademy.com/cgi-bin/eboard30/index.cgi?board=Main&message=2938As the linked BBC-article saysSNIPIf Microsoft wins, analysts say, the Commission could lose much of the international credibility which it has built up by its aggressive stance against the company - and would find it harder to impose its will in future cases.Maybe strange things will happen next week. Even if the decision will probably have to wait. NEMO me impune lacessit (4/23/06; 05:06:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 143493) Sunday reading http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HD20Ad03.htmlPossible senario??? nemo The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 04:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 143492) From my o.c.: Wellink – IMF voting rights – peg yuan to gold-euro http://www.imf.org/External/spring/2006/imfc/statement/eng/nld.pdf He has already a contradiction in his introduction. He's says that the world economy is doing well (very well), taking into account (notwithstanding) the present circumstances.This is Wrong.It is a blessing from the growing imbalances which makes that the economy is doing well. The US of A is not saving. That's why the economy is doing well. The Chinese, on the other hand, are saving and this allows the US of A to print more greenbacks with low interest rates. Japan is printing yen to buy dollars and thereby avoids taking sides.Euroland is growing slowly because it displays monetary and fiscal discipline. Etc. … etc. The IMF is thereby putting the whole situation upside down. There is a very special reason to the high oil and gas prices. Dollar and dollar-policy mismanagement.If one would undertake a measure to solve this mess … this would have a negative impact on the world economy … which is now in relatively good shape due to the mismanagement. It would indeed be better for oil-revenues to unpeg from the dollar. The yuan, which is now pegged to an unknown currency basket, should also be unpegged.Maybe some rich (surplus) currencies should be pegged to a stable and intrinsically valuable gold-euro-unit.But if this happens, then the IMF is no longer a dollar-only institute!That's why the IMF wants the dollar-friendly currencies (Mexico-South-Korea...) to be given more voting rights. The Invisible Hand (4/23/06; 04:03:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 143491) Frpm my own correspondent; Wait for the Sun! http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2006-04-22T153015Z_01_N22205939_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-IMF-SNOW-DC.XML The Snowman is going to attach a list of "conditions" to the US –IMF collaboration.Wat an arrogant hubris!. The CoinGuy (4/23/06; 02:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 143490) Blessed by Another hit and run by MK... Any idea when you're going to return to your own site for some serious discussion?It's been years now.The CoinGuy 968 (4/23/06; 02:00:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 143489) It's a new kind of gold rush in booming India http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=82877&version=1&template_id=40&parent_id=22 SNIP :"A new breed of people is emerging in India where they are buying and holding gold in bullion form," Sonawala said. "There is a clear shift towards that. It's just not the housewife buying jewellery. We are seeing serious investors now.""If you hold in bullion form, you get back almost your entire money when you sell. But if you hold jewellery and try to sell it later, it's tough to recover the making charge, which accounts for 30% of the price of jewellery.""Sonawala said demand for bullion in the world's biggest importing and consuming country has jumped by about 30% in the past six months. But growth in jewellery demand has not kept pace.""When gold was at Rs6,000 per 10gm some time back, demand for bullion was not that great, compared to what it is now when it is at 9,000. And Rs10,000 is not far away. The mad rush is increasing with every increase in price," he said."----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Got gold ? ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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