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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/23/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

1340cc (03/23/03; 22:40:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 100154)
Coon 'huntin and the weaker sex i.e. Rare Gold


I can tell there are some of you good 'ol boys that have never been 'coon huntin. A racoon, 35 lbs, will lure a 65lb coon dog into a creek and I can guarantee that there has never been very many dogs come out the winner. In this case Sa Damn is the coon. Lets all hope the coon dog, the USA , will come out the winner.

Now as far as women in war. How many of you boys have pushed a 15 lb. bowling ball out your butt? It has been proven women have a much higher tolerance for pain. And just what do you think they can do to a woman that they can't do to a man?



Max Rabbitz (03/23/03; 22:27:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100153)
Russian Story
I think is not very likely.

1) The line mentioned in the story is essentially the road used to get to the Chemical factory at An-Najaf. You don't put your supply line along side the enemy line.

2) The captured and murdered Americans were mechanics. You don't put them in the front lines.

3) Any mechanized vehicles in this region are dead meat. I don't see how they could survive for long in the open.

What is more likely to me is that Iraqi guard troops (and Saudi and other volunteers) remained behind, took off their uniforms and have become guerillas. Since this is a Shite area I would expect minimal help from the population. Baghdad is different and I'd expect much more support for Saddam/Baath Party. Time will tell. Russian media is now fully controlled by the government and Saddam is a Russian ally. Note the just confirmed illegal weapons sales during the last year, against sanctions. Russia wants to hurt the U.S., and not just to free gold prices. Does anyone still want to take things to the UN?


Buena Fe (03/23/03; 22:12:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100152)
wag the dog
don't get me wrong, saddam is a monster, but

i don't trust washington either

this big chemical plant is first reported by fox and jerusalem news, hmmmmmmmmmm only 30 guards, hmmmmmmm, no resistance, smells like another desperate rumour to help the monday morning markets to me! or worse a set up to justify this war.

if no wmd are found washington is going to suffer some big pressure from the international community

Yellow Metal (03/23/03; 21:51:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 100151)
Soviet losses in Afghanistan 1979 - 1989
http://www.aeronautics.ru/nws001/afghanlosses01.htm
From the same pages "Soviet losses in Afghanistan 1979 - 1989"

He also has a very interesting breakdown of Russian military ordnance and capabilities.

Taking the two together I don't think it will be a short war and Gold should start to rise accordingly.



JT (03/23/03; 21:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 100150)
Unilateral assured destruction
http://www.nationalcatholicreporter.org/peace/gumb0811.htm
This may of interest

However, in a New Yorker article — in the April lst issue of New Yorker magazine, Nicholas Lehman wrote an article which he entitled, "The New World Order." And that article suggests that our foreign policy, the foreign policy that we're following, did not begin on September 11, or evolve out of September 11. In 1992 Richard Cheney, now our vice president, and Paul Wolfowitz, now the Deputy Secretary of Defense — both of whom exercise enormous power in the current administration — wrote a position paper for George Bush, Sr, charting out U.S. foreign policy after the fall of Communism: What we had to do now that the Soviet Union is gone from the scene. (That happened in 1989, very suddenly, very dramatically.)

And the heart of it, according to Mr. Cheney and Mr. Wolfowitz in this report, will be, and listen to these words carefully: "to maintain the United States’ position as the world's only super power and to allow no other super powers to emerge."

The aim, simply put, was to establish unilateral control of the world. Such an aim would involve — and these are the kinds of words they use in the report — smashing all possible enemy threats — even before those threats become real. You may have heard we now have a pre-emptive military policy. We will attack another country whenever we decide that they are about to attack us, whether we have any proof or not, but we have a pre-emptive defense policy.
----------------------------------------------------

That was written in 1992. And yet it is exactly what is happening at this time. We have dropped out of the ABM Treaty. We have refused to ratify the comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. We have refused to go along with the Kyoto Accords. We have said no to the World Court. We have refused to sign on to a land mines elimination treaty. We are backing out of one treaty after another because we are the super power. We don't need the other nations any longer.
And based on this idea that we are Number One, that we are the indispensable nation, we go on to develop kinds of military that we feel we will need to wage pax Americana.



Yellow Metal (03/23/03; 21:34:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 100149)
@ Sector . .As for the usagold admin's refusal to accept non-US news sources as having credibility
http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/news076.htm
Yes there should be no doubt in anyone's mind, particularly on this forum that the news from US sources is highly suspect.
Actually, I'm constantly amazed at the number of posters here who express the gravest of doubts about the US financial media and yet blithely accept the same media in their reporting on things "geopo;itical".

Be that as it may, I personally am constantly scouring internet media in an effort to discern what is happening. The above link is only one of many and I certainly am not vouching for it but maybe we should extend our inquiries a little further than we have been.

The link is to a Russian site so anyone afraid of misinformation from unpatriotic foreigners is asked not to follow it.

snip


March 23, 2003, 1200hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - The situation in southern Iraq can be characterized as unstable and controversial. Heavy fighting is taking place in the Umm-Qasr-An-Nasiriya-Basra triangle. Satellite and signals intelligence show that both sides actively employ armored vehicles in highly mobile attacks and counterattacks. Additionally, fighting is continuing near the town of An-Najaf.

As of this morning the Iraqi defenses along the Basra - An-Nasiriya - An-Najaf line are holding.

Following the yesterday's Iraqi counter strike near An-Nasiriya the US command was forced to halt the advance of its troops toward An-Najaf and to redirect a portion of available tank forces to cover the flanks of the 3rd Motorized Infantry Division attacked by the Iraqis. By late evening yesterday constant air strikes and increasing strength of American tank attacks forced the Iraqis to withdraw their troops back to eastern parts of Nasiriya, across the Euphrates river, were they assumed defensive positions along the river bank.

end of snip

Even when we don't like what we hear, we owe it to ourselves to investigate further.

mikal (03/23/03; 21:13:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 100148)
"Live free or die"- New Hampshire state motto
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,918742,00.html
(Richard Perle, of course, is CFR member too.)

Pentagon hawk linked to UK intelligence company
Richard Perle is director of firm selling terror alert software
David Leigh Friday March 21, 2003
The Guardian -Excerpt:
"Amid general stock market jitters, one British company linked to the American hawk Richard Perle and dealing with secret intelligence is among the few UK commercial organisations that stand to profit from the Iraq war and its accompanying worldwide terrorist alert.
The Cambridge-based Autonomy Corporation, with Mr Perle's help, is secretively selling advanced computer eavesdropping systems to intelligence agencies around the world.
Its software simultaneously monitors hundreds of thousands of intercepted emails and phone conversations while they are taking place."


mikal (03/23/03; 21:06:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 100147)
@Goldilox, Sector
I have enjoyed many breaking news stories from Pravda.ru in recent years. Also I have known and worked with numerous fine Ukranian, Georgian and Russian citizens and with great pleasure.
If an "enemy" is Arab or Korean or Nippon, there will always be "pack journalism and sanctimonious nationalism", quoting Mr. Gresham on Friday. Stereotypes and presumptuous interpretation of news and current events reinforce self-defeating habits, rather than enabling success in life.


Waverider (03/23/03; 21:03:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 100146)
The monster slain by optimism
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030322.cowent0322/BNStory/International
Snip:
"For a long time, Saddam did not believe that it would come to war. The international community was so divided that he thought he could fend them off indefinitely. His friends in Europe would thwart the criminal little Bush. The Iraqi media referred approvingly to Jacques Chirac as al-munadhil al-akbar, the Great Combatant. But he miscalculated wildy, as he has done before. And now his serial miscalculations have spiralled into disaster. It is now that he is most dangerous. "When he is backed into a corner, he will lash out with everything at his disposal," says psychiatrist Jerrold Post, who has profiled Saddam in detail for the U.S. Defence Department. This view is shared by virtually all Saddam-watchers. The question is not whether Saddam will try to burn his oil fields, bomb his dams to flood the rivers, and unleash whatever nasty weapons he may have in his arsenal. The answer is yes. The real question is whether anyone will obey him any more."

Waverider: I'm not quite as optimistic as Sector that Saddam would have used WMD by now. I've been thinking recently of my travels to Masada in Israel where Eleazar and the Jewish revolutionaries comitted mass suicide before being subjugated by the Romans. I wouldn't put anything past Saddam - I view him as extremely dangerous. I think he is psychotic enough to unleash WMD- even on his own people. The question is whether he has the means to do it.

JT (03/23/03; 20:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 100145)
Bush and Cheney's Global War
http://www.afsc.org/pwork/0204/020404.htm
Some may find this interesting

The New New World Disorder is also based on oil, the jugular vein of the world's economies. Remember, the US has threatened to initiate nuclear war at least eight times to preserve its privileged control of the world's oil reserves.

Goldilox (03/23/03; 20:52:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 100144)
alternate news sources
@sector

Your point about the validity of stories in the US press is certainly noted. My new browser at least has BBC INTL built-in to the News links. They're not jumping to display alternate viewpoints, but they sure seem to double check their stories better. So far, every major action and specific anomaly (like friendly fire, POWs, etc.) has been posted there hours before the US press releases its version. US News is severely slowed down (and whatever else) by required sanitation procedures.

Yesterday, BBC was posting pictures of 100K+ plus marchers in NYC when the US media was still estimating 10K. Come on, 10K in NYC isn't even an Expos-Mets game.

I know this isn't your main point, but it's helped me get a little more perspective.

Max Rabbitz (03/23/03; 20:52:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 100143)
Analysis: Shock and Worry
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/3/23/134629.shtml
A few snippets from Christopher Ruddy
Monday, March 24, 2003

"What an interesting war. This is looking like the equivalent of the Vietnam War, one where, because of political considerations, we couldn't chase the enemy across the DMZ. Now we won't hit anything save those deemed "official" buildings and presumably empty."

"Instead of rushing to the capital our ground troops, let's soften up the enemy. When the lights don't go on, the water tap is silent and the toilet won't flush, when food dwindles, when chaos reigns because the leaders are fleeing or dead, that's when the regime has maximum pressure to be ousted from within. This "war-lite" won't cause it."

"Col. David Hackworth said he worries that with U.S. troops so close to Baghdad, Saddam won't need missiles. His Republican Guard can just pump artillery shells laced with chemical weapons upon our troops."

"Our American leadership firmly believes that the Iraqis really want to be liberated by America and won't fight for Saddam. Americans, who love freedom, can easily be deluded to think this."

But previous military commanders who battled tyrants in Japan,Germany, the Soviet Union, Korea and Vietnam know that native populations can and will fight tooth and nail for their dictators."

Max: "I went to a pro-troops rally this afternoon. Over 10,000 adults and lots of kids. Nice people. Very polite. On tonight's evenings news one local TV station just mentioned there was a rally, no footage or crowd size mentioned, but showed a few hundred "peace" protestors downtown trying to disrupt other people's business.



Black Blade (03/23/03; 20:41:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 100142)
The Party's Over - Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2003/Heinberg.htm

Snippit:

The world is about to run out of cheap oil and change dramatically. Within the next few years, global production will peak. Thereafter, even if industrial societies begin to switch to alternative energy sources, they will have less net energy each year to do all the work essential to the survival of complex societies. We are entering a new era, as different from the industrial era as the latter was from medieval times.

In "The Party's Over", Richard Heinberg places this momentous transition in historical context, showing how industrialism arose from the harnessing of fossil fuels, how competition to control access to oil shaped the geopolitics of the 20th century, and how contention for dwindling energy resources in the 21st century will lead to resource wars in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South America. He describes the likely impacts of oil depletion, and all of the energy alternatives. Predicting chaos unless the U.S. -- the world's foremost oil consumer -- is willing to join with other countries to implement a global program of resource conservation and sharing, he also recommends a "managed collapse" that might make way for a slower-paced, low-energy, sustainable society in the future.

Black Blade: A Puplava interview accessible at the link. I haven't listened to it yet or read Heinberg's book. It might be interesting in light of current events. Occasional poster DeRonin brings this to our attention.



Black Blade (03/23/03; 20:29:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 100141)
U.S. natural gas demand expected to out-pace production 3-1
http://www.petroleumnewsalaska.com/pnarch/030316-04.html

Snippit:

Despite strong U.S. natural gas prices and storage levels approaching record lows, major drilling activity has been slow in responding to market fundamentals, leaving some industry analysts scratching their heads. EIA now expects U.S. gas demand this year to increase by 3.7 percent to around 22.5 trillion cubic feet. But EIA also anticipates that production, down 2.8 percent last year, will grow by just 1.2 percent this year, despite strong prices and a corresponding increase in drilling. There also is growing sentiment among analysts that no matter how much drilling increases in North America, U.S. demand for natural gas will continue to outpace domestic production. They generally blame a lack of good, available prospects and growing dependence on older, less productive fields. ExxonMobil CEO Lee Raymond drove that point home at last month's Cambridge Energy Research Associates' CERA Week conference in Houston, Texas, warning that U.S gas is going the same way as U.S. oil production. "If you don't have a place, you aren't going to drill," Raymond asserted. "Lower 48 prospectively is gradually eroding because fields are so mature. The U.S. is gradually slipping into a lack of sufficient gas supply to meet demand."

Black Blade: Indeed.



Cytek (03/23/03; 20:28:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 100140)
1 Year chart and the POG
As i write this the POG is up at $326.80 and Gold has tested it's 200dma and so far it looks like it will bounce off of its old $325 Maginot line. Tomorrow will be interesting on the Comex floor. I believe if the POG stays and closes above $325, this will confirm the powerful bull-market for at least the chartist, making $325 an even stronger support level for gold. I certainly hope it happens!
Whatever happens there will be violient swings on any good or bad WAR news. Looks like OIL is up and developments over the weekend have clearly cooled off the dollar. If those Tomahawk cruise missiles keep finding themselves in other countries and take out something major, this war could turn real ugly.

Goldilox (03/23/03; 20:27:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 100139)
re: more on post #99969 on 3/20/03 - War costs
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/23/sprj.irq.war.main/index.html
 Iraq claims it has found an Israeli missile in Baghdad and accuses Israel of "taking part in this aggression against Iraq," Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri said Sunday. The Israeli government denied the claim, government spokesman Daniel Seaman saying, "Israel is not engaged in this war in any way."

OK, they're in. they're out; financially it's all a little of the ole in-N-out.

Not hard to believe they're plenty supportive, but George Bush's War budget includes $1Bn Aid and 9$Bn guaranteed loans to Israel. If they're NOT part of the war effort, why should such a large amount of the war $$$ funding be set aside directly for them?

Of course, there is nothing on this planet stranger than appropriations bills.

- Mark Twain on the "efficiencies" of government. . . "Suppose an idoit went to Congress, but then I repeat myself."

mikal (03/23/03; 20:26:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 100138)
Nuclear power plants, clean coal, tar, alternative energy?
Oil gets more expensive, environmentally, in body counts, social dissarray and imbalance, cancer, etc. Eventually energy barons will move on to different "politically correct", but nonetheless improved sources like clean coal.

sector (03/23/03; 20:19:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 100137)
Russian Dealers Provide Iraq With Supplies, Electronics
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,81917,00.html

Sunday, March 23, 2003
By Liza Porteus

WASHINGTON — Russian arms dealers have equipped Iraq with supplies and electronic jamming equipment that could throw U.S. planes and bombs off course, Fox News has confirmed.

The Washington Post first reported Sunday that Bush administration sources reported that a Russian company is helping the Iraqi military deploy global-positioning system jammers to Baghdad. Two other companies have sold anti-tank missiles and thousands of night-vision goggles in violation of U.N. sanctions.

The United States protested the aid to the Russian government on Saturday for not doing more to stop the transactions, the Post reported.

Fox News confirmed that Russians were in fact selling the equipment to Baghdad and that Russian technicians were in the Iraqi capital this week, instructing Iraqis on how to use the devices. Russians were in Baghdad as of Friday but it's not known whether they have left.

"We are very concerned about reports that Russian firms are selling militarily sensitive equipment to Iraq," State Department spokeswoman Brenda Greenberg told Fox News. "Such equipment in the hands of the Iraqi military may pose a direct threat to U.S. and coalition armed forces."
++++++++++++++++++++++++

There will be no threat to "Coalition forces" if they stay out of Baghdad and Basrah and don't try to drop precision-guided GPS based ordnance there. They can, of course use conventional laser gyro platform-assisted dumb bombs but those aren't nearly as precise.

And all this means that the US has been checkmated. They cannot enter Baghdad without running an unacceptable risk to all their armored units nor can the US engage in so-called surgical strikes without adding unacceptably to the mounting civilian death toll.

It is all over but the White House's decision regarding its withdrawal from Iraq.

The war is really over and we lost. Unless the President continues to pound on his square peg and kills thousands more with inaccurate GPS bombing or worse, orders our soldiers to their deaths to face ant-tank, city-based weapons.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As for the usagold admin's refusal to accept non-US news sources as having credibility.

The US news sources have reported that Basra had fallen two days ago--It hadn't. FT.COM reported today that the entire 51rst Division in Basra surrendered...then their commanding officer phoned in via Al-Jazzera's sat-phone from tne front that he was still there with over 20,000 soldiers and 10s of thousands of armed citizens.

The US reported they took Umm Qsar a city a few miles from the border, on the 20th in the first hours of the war, but were shown on several television networks this evening in a fierce fire fight today in Umm Qsar. Our soldiers are certainly not walking around Umm Qsar outside their armored vehicles. The US still have not "Taken" the city.

It is the US news sources that are not credible. The overarching US propaganda machine is the real shock and awe.

Russian Defense Minister Sergi Ivanov said months ago that the "Iraqis would fight". They are fighting.

A balance in reporting and news assesment is only obtained by reading both sides. Pravda is one side.

As for the link to economics...the whole purpose for the war is to attept to save a failed US economy by the predation of Arab oil. The stated purpose is to disarm Iraq of its WMD.

If Iraq HAD all those WMD they would have already used them...unless, of course, Saddam is the most clever tactician ever born.




Black Blade (03/23/03; 20:15:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 100136)
'Huge' Suspected Chemical Weapons Plant Found in Iraq
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,81935,00.html

Snippit:

A senior pentagon official has confirmed to Fox News on Sunday that coalition forces have discovered a "huge" suspected chemical weapons factory near the Iraqi city of An Najaf, which is situated some 90 miles south of Baghdad. Coalition troops are also said to be holding the general in charge of the facility. U.S. Central Command, which oversees the war in Iraq, said in a statement that troops were examining several "sites of interest," but said it was premature to call the Najaf site a chemical weapons factory.

Black Blade: Getting warmer? Hmmm…



Black Blade (03/23/03; 20:10:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 100135)
Thanks MK

I guess with the news so heavily dominated with these disturbing current geopolitical events it is difficult to not be distracted. I still have no over riding preference pro or con about the war but it is easy to have one's thoughts focused on these "interesting times".

While I believe the main purpose of the war is over securing a free flow of "cheap" oil for economic and national security reasons, I would also concede that the removal of Saddam is to remove a destabilizing threat in the region that accounts for at least 19% of the global oil supply and where the U.S. gets 13% of its daily consumption including 1.2 million bbl from Iraq. In fact without Middle East oil there is no U.S. economy. The U.S. has only 3% of the world's known reserves and is not capable of meeting its own energy requirements. With several emerging Third World nations requiring "cheap" energy to grow and demanding "their share", the competition for these dwindling resources will become very intense. Hydrocarbon Man demands "cheap" energy. The modern economic miracles demand it. Without "cheap" energy the "New Economy" would have never happened.

Hydrocarbon Man is addicted to foreign oil. With U.S. production in decline and demand rising, we will produce only 21% of our own consumption by 2020, down from 90% in 1990. By then even Middle East oil production will be in decline as more emerging nations demand ever more of "their share". In the next 20 years demand for oil will grow from 77 million bbl/day to 120 bbl/day based on DOE and IEA estimates. Nearly all the extra supply is expected to come from the Middle East. Natural Gas will have to pick up the slack. It is more abundant in the U.S. and cleaner burning. It will also require the opening up of restricted lands for eventual production. Natural Gas demand will likely increase by 46% by 2020 based on EIA estimates. Even so, our "cheap" NatGas resources are limited. Currently NatGas production is in rapid decline due to limited access and multiple government regulations.

It's not just gasoline that will get prohibitively expensive but rising energy costs will push up the price of all goods and services eventually leading to runaway inflation. The rising costs of energy are a drag on productivity and economic growth. To counter act these costs the government will stimulate the economy with cash and lots of it. As unpalatable that may seem the alternative is much worse. The Federal Reserve will ultimately "bite the bullet" and as Alan Greenspan and Fed governor Ben S. Bernanke have said in the past, they will use the wonder of technology – "the printing press". In this scenario gold will take its rightful place as a wealth preservation vehicle while the currency is debased (think Argentina, Russia, and Japan for example). Gold has been on a slow and steady rise as the tech bubble popped. However, as the energy supply-demand situation becomes more critical and inflation reigns, precious metals will experience a meteoric rise as Hydrocarbon Man is confronted with a plunging U.S. dollar. That is why it is imperative that everyone has a portfolio insurance position anchored with precious metals.

I would say we are paying the price for mistakes made in the past when these nations were carved out of the post Ottoman Empire following World War I as per the 1921 League of Nations mandate. In short this "mandate" led to inter tribal squabbles and disputes over boundaries, especially since the discovery of major oil fields that lie under these national boundaries. So without going into a long-winded dissertation and extensive review of history, Great Britain and France for the most part had divided up oil interests in the region and the U.S. came upon the scene in the 1930's. For a good detailed reading I would suggest the Pulitzer Prize winning book and a PBS series "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power" by Daniel Yergin (now president of Cambridge Energy Research Associates).

Whether Hydrocarbon Man is American, British, French, German, Russian, Chinese, Australian or whatever nationality, the quest in the Middle East is for abundant "cheap" oil or "The Prize". The survival of each economy demands it.

- Black Blade


JT (03/23/03; 20:02:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 100134)
test
test

rare gold (03/23/03; 19:21:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 100133)
Thanks Sir K
I apologize also for jumping the gun myself.

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