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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/23/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
a nation of one
(08/23/02; 22:03:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 83616)
blurb
Just the idea of government is itself already a corruption.
mikal
(08/23/02; 21:47:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 83615)
Terrorism "shield" takes shape
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=topnews&StoryID=1366978
(snippit) Officials Ask Florida Residents to Watch Waterways
August 23, 2002 04:57 PM ET By Kristin Roberts
MIAMI BEACH, Fla. (Reuters) - The U.S. Coast Guard asked marina workers and private boaters on Friday to monitor South Florida's waterways, tracking suspicious activity and reporting to law enforcement in the name of homeland defense.
Coast Guard Capt. James Watson compared the effort to a call during World War II for civilians to watch the coast line for German U-boats.
......Law enforcement officials in Miami shied away from detailing what activity would be considered unusual.
Instead, the Coast Guard said that in general, behavior to monitor on the water includes suspicious people photographing or sketching along the waterfront, loitering for long periods, asking detailed questions and renting watercraft......
While the program, dubbed "Operation On Guard," is specific to Florida rather than national in scope, the FBI said Miami was not being fingered by officials as a more likely entry point for would-be attackers than any other port.
"We are not at any more risk," said Kelly Darden, assistant FBI special agent in charge of South Florida.
"But we have to look at our ports. We have to focus on them especially because they are the gateway for Central and South America," he told Reuters....more at link. Gold and BB's preparations making more sense daily.
silvester
(08/23/02; 21:33:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 83614)
@Leigh
I too share the thoughts you describe. I am confident we can cope. Maybe our leaders are too.
Is it possible we continue a gradual descent? The time would allow old skills to become popular again.
mikal
(08/23/02; 20:48:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 83613)
@DOWNUNDER
Re: That "slam job" on Switzerland in your posted CBS Marketwatch story- They can't get much more hypocritical than that can they, the pot calling the kettle black? Now were Switzerland to join the Euro group, would they say: "we can be friends without all this unnecessary squibbling"?
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 20:45:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 83612)
Boeing workers to go on strike soon?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWaohhWQQm9laW5n
Seattle, Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co.'s largest union, the International Association of Machinists, said the company's proposal to boost wages and pensions ``misses by a mile'' and threatened to strike when a three-year contract expires Sept. 1.
Boeing offered to increase the machinists' average annual wages by 8.5 percent over three years to $66,250 and pensions by 12 percent. The union, which wants a doubling in pensions, called the offer ``third-rate'' in a statement.
A strike by the union's 25,000 machinists would shut airliner production at the world's biggest planemaker. The workers, based primarily in the Puget Sound region around Seattle, account for about a third of the workforce in Boeing's airliner unit.
``Right now, it looks like we're going to be on strike,'' said Deborah Byrd, a machinist who works at a plant in Kent, Washington. ``The pension is not enough to live on.''
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 20:39:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 83611)
Lucent cuts more jobs
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1367191
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Lucent Technologies Inc. LU.N plans to cut more jobs to reduce expenses, but it said on Friday that any layoffs would be on a smaller scale than the 15,000 job cuts reported by a financial news Web site.
TheStreet.com reported that Lucent is planning another round of job cuts that could reduce the telecommunications equipment maker's work force by as much as 15,000 jobs, bringing its total employment to between 30,000 and 35,000.
Lucent, which currently employs about 50,000, previously had said it aimed to reduce its work force to about 45,000 employees by the end of the calendar year.
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 20:28:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 83610)
More job cuts
SPRINGFIELD, Ohio (AP) — The decision to end production of heavy-duty trucks at the International Truck and Engine Corp. plant in this western Ohio city will result in the loss of 750 to 800 jobs, the company said Friday.
International spokesman Kyle Rose said most of the job cuts, which amount to nearly one-quarter of the plant's work force, will occur Sept. 6. The rest will come in the following weeks.
_______________
Unemployment Rate 5.9%? hmm
DOWNUNDER
(08/23/02; 20:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83609)
@BLACKJACK - - RE MESSAGE 83600 --US and Europe face stagnation like Japan in 90's
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=dhtml&siteid=yhoo&guid=%7B93CAB426%2D3755%2D4FFD%2D93A1%2D374E07AF179C%7D
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Paul Krugman, the New York Times columnist and Princeton professor of economics, has been concerned lately that the post-bubble United States is about to enter an extended period of stagnation.
The U.S. situation in the first decade of this millennium, he fears, could be similar to that of Japan in the final decade of the previous millennium, following the bursting of its bubbles.
---------------------------------------------------------
I was glad you posted a link to this "story" as the author of the CBS Market Watch article(Paul Erdman) then went on to deny the above applying to the USA. In fact the story head line was :
"WHY EUROPE IS SICK AT ITS CORE".
A slam dunk of a story aimed at Switzerland in particular. what a ramp job --trying to shift focus away from the rotten to the core US administration.May work for some readers.
SNIP: (Following on from "bubbles" above) - -
"Krugman is right to worry. But he's worried about the wrong continent.His concerns should be centered on Europe, not America. And the poster boy for the economic malaise that is increasingly enveloping Europe is its former star performer, Switzerland.
The pillars of that country's unique post-World War II prosperity are today crumbling, one after another. What that country may end up with is a socialist state devoid of entrepreneurship, behind the curve in technology, burdened with an aging population and declining educational standards. As if this were not bad enough, as a result of revelations of Swiss cooperation with the Nazis during World War II, and its continuing practice of using bank secrecy to attract dirty money from every crooked corner of the world, it is a nation that is also increasingly regarded as amoral, a pariah.
Taken together, all this represents a recipe for economic stagnation"
And on it goes - - - - - -A wortwhile enough read but ovious for what it was - a slam job!
-----------------------------------------------------------
Downunder- - - when I see posts at USA Gold or elsewhere that I find interesting I often send them to Media outlets.Usually these stories will be about Gold or Economic facts that never see the light of day in our so called "Free Press". It's not a very rewarding task BUT I feel better knowing that they know, that I know, the stories "they" run are mainly crap!
To have any credibility ALL stories posted should have a link to the source. If thats not possible then it should be noted.IMHO.
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 19:48:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 83608)
No rebound in capital spending
Kansas City, Missouri, Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- John Holland is reducing equipment purchases this year at Butler Manufacturing Co., the century-old maker of pre-fabricated buildings, and lower interest rates would do little to change his mind.
Some economists and investors have urged the Federal Reserve to reduce its benchmark lending rate a 12th time since the start of last year. That wouldn't ``make any difference in our decisions to hire or invest,'' said Holland, the company's chief executive officer. ``The problem isn't high interest rates. More important for us is capacity use, which is still pretty low,'' the result of weak demand. Butler plans to slash capital spending by up to half.
Companies added twice as much to factories and equipment during the economy's record 10-year expansion from March 1991 to March 2001 as they had in the previous decade. When the recession started, they were left with excess capacity. Increased business spending is necessary for the economy's recovery to gather momentum, Fed officials say. Manufacturing accounts for a sixth of the economy.
``Capital spending clearly has a long way to go before the level of activity returns to where it was prior to the recession,'' said Michael Moskow, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in a speech Wednesday in Wisconsin.
sector
(08/23/02; 19:35:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 83607)
Dittos on the Depressive Forecast
Black Blade
Add to your analysis regarding the virtual absence of self-reliance, the likely anarchy.
Today's national resolve has been split into the "Reds" and the "Blues"...the last Presidential electoral map. The press is utterly polarized into ideological camps. The population cannot possibly endure the coming hardships as an intact union. The social strife which will attend Weimar Republic inflation will crumble our infrastructure, wreck our institutions.
Joseph Conrad wrote one of his best essays "Know them when they are hungry". America will be tested as never before in the near future. I am afraid the hungrey will flourish in anarchy. Our citizens will evolve as a cancer patient. First, denial [Where they are today], then anger [We may see the beginning of this in the November elections] and then finally, acceptance that their way of life is over, their future - altered.
Social Security? Ask the Argentineans about theirs. Examine the economic morass in Japan. Now, imagine Japan without it's largest trading partner. We really don't "Trade" with Japan and haven't for decades. They hold our unbacked paper...for now.
My next-door neighbor is a senior executive at a manufactured home firm. He came over this evening and said they just had their worst month in the company's 25-year history. The good news is he will refinance his home at 5.8% with no fees. He knows it's a form of welfare.
Washington's mutated World-view gets more twisted each day. What distinguishes the dictator Castro who is our enemy, from the dictator Musharref who is our friend? They are dictators. They both are an anathema to democracy.
Self sufficiency is all-important.
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 19:27:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83606)
Yen Near Two-Week Low; Shiokawa Says He Wants Weaker Currency
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWY8GRVtWWVuIE5l
Snippit:
New York, Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The yen headed toward its fourth week of decline against the dollar in five weeks after Japan's finance minister said he wanted his country's currency to lose value. ``I hope it will weaken a bit more,'' Masajuro Shiokawa said in Osaka, Japan. With the yen down 1.8 percent this week, ``the currency is moving in the direction we hope to see.'' Japan's trade surplus shrank more than expected in July as the yen's 9 percent rise against the dollar this year hurt exports. The currency's gains reduced the value of computer-part and car shipments from the world's second-largest economy, pushing exports down 0.5 percent from June. The smaller surplus ``is still a concern, so these comments will continue, even as the yen weakens,'' said Nobuaki Kubo, foreign-exchange manager at Daiwa Bank in Tokyo. ``The ministry is still trying to help the dollar.''
Black Blade: And so the "Currency Wars" continue. It is quite the tread mill with the Japanese economy still losing traction – Japan weakens the yen and supports the dollar for an ever shrinking global economic pie, while the US corporations and consumers are spending less. It is no wonder that Japanese citizens are buying gold.
Graham
(08/23/02; 19:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 83605)
Water and Desalination
http://www.water-technology.net/projects/tampa/
For those of you interested in water and desalination plants, check the link. This covers some of the basics for a new desalination plant being built here in Tampa Bay.
Given Florida's drought for the last few years (but raining right now) the need for a new water supply was high.
The plan is getting some environmental flack. Basically, a desalination plant returns extra salty water back to the source, Tampa Bay. In this case it is being built at a power station that uses large volumes of cooling water already. This dilutes the returned water to a reasonable level for return to the bay.
Graham
Waverider
(08/23/02; 18:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 83604)
OOPS.....
Leigh...sorry...
Waverider
(08/23/02; 18:55:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 83603)
USAGold
Michael, I just received the Lucky French Angel and....WOOOWSEEERS - it's beautiful! It has a permanent place on my gold necklace - with my dark colouring it is oh...sooooo...pretty - NEVER to be traded or sold for anything! I think that it has already brought me luck as I also just received tremendous news regarding the US/European distribution and sales of the home-health care product for which I've patents! Too much for one day - time to celebrate (before spending the weekend home-canning Leah)! Thank you again Michael! Cheers,
Waverider
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 18:48:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 83602)
Re: Mo Ver Meg and Leigh
That's exactly the point! The more dependent that we become on government the more secure and powerful they become. In this way politicians and government bureaucrats can justify their existence. Politicians would have us believe that they are actually useful or important. This greed and power lust is a psychological disease. Over the last century there has been an urbanization of America. During the Great Depression many Americans were living in rural America and were able to grow their own food and raise livestock. Those days are gone as the family farmer/rancher is all but disappeared. In the next Great Depression we should see similar events as in Argentina and Uruguay play out in the U.S. Many of us have seen the banks close, food riots, scavenging for food in dumpsters and landfills (even the eating of road kill, pets, toads and rodents), skyrocketing unemployment and even elderly women resorting to prostitution for survival in South America.
You say that it can't happen here? Yes it can! People do desperate things in bad times to survive. Realize that Argentina was the breadbasket of South America and at one time the most prosperous country in the world. Also, realize that Uruguay was (until recently) considered the Switzerland of South America because of the reputed safety of their banks. How times have changed. Venezuela with all its natural resources and dominance of energy in the western hemisphere struggles with ballooning debt and massive social programs (not to mention a quasi-Marxist president). Colombia is falling apart as leftist guerillas and right-wing paramilitaries rule the countryside. Bolivia is so far somewhat stable, but here too there are cracks beginning to appear with rising inflation and a developing currency crisis. Then there is Brazil that threatens to elect a left-wing socialist who has actually advocated defaulting on the country's debt and now is experiencing another bout of rising inflation. Mexico's finance minister has openly worried that South America's problems will spread north. Mexico is still burdened with a deteriorating nationalized energy and basic services industry while the country's infrastructure in caving in.
We can watch these events develop south of the border as a possible test case of what will happen in the U.S. in coming years (or months?). Americans are simply not prepared and are incapable of fending for themselves. This may be partly design by power hungry politicians who promote dependence of the citizenry on government solutions. The best defense for those of us who see world events unfolding before our eyes is to take precautions for ourselves and our families and unfortunately to leave others to their own survival. After all, most of us know friends and family members who view our position on self-reliance and preparation as foolhardy. It is the sad old Aesop fable "The Ant and the Grasshopper" scenario being played out before us.
- Black Blade
mikal
(08/23/02; 18:36:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 83601)
@Leigh
"...the government isn't doing all it can to foster a spirit of conservation and resourcefulness." I agree. Self-preservation means we must all anticipate the actions of the Feds to be one step ahead. Discovering the extent they will go to preserve faith in the political process and a dysfunctional plutocracy, for example. Each individual is inherently resourceful, whether or not his own government presents obstacles to his happiness and self-fulfillment. The strategy of obtaining food and shelter from nature can be gleaned from many places, including nature herself- positive, constructive, and creative on earth and in the heavens. Those who manifest this type of uncompromising, concientious, constructive energy in the image of Creation, will illuminate for others, clear pathways towards a truly peaceful, productive, and achieved world.
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 18:34:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 83600)
US and Europe face stagnation like Japan in 90's
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=dhtml&siteid=yhoo&guid=%7B93CAB426%2D3755%2D4FFD%2D93A1%2D374E07AF179C%7D
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Paul Krugman, the New York Times columnist and Princeton professor of economics, has been concerned lately that the post-bubble United States is about to enter an extended period of stagnation.
The U.S. situation in the first decade of this millennium, he fears, could be similar to that of Japan in the final decade of the previous millennium, following the bursting of its bubbles.
Sierra Madre
(08/23/02; 17:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 83599)
An abnormal world
Perhaps I am beating a dead horse, but still I should like to express my opinion regarding the state in which this world finds itself.
We are living in an abnormal world. The world has never before in recorded history lived in such an unrealistic fashion. The psychological condition of our world is pathological, that is to say, sick. We are living in mentally deranged societies, and I refer especially to those with the most industrialized economies. I think that perhaps inhabitants of remote islands such as the Cape Verde Islands or the Galapagos or other very isolated islands, may still retain sanity, because their scarce resources and small populations do not allow the most influential or powerful in those places, to indulge in fantasies based on credit and false money. The economy there is chickens, hens, pigs, coconuts and fish plus the other usual items found in "underdeveloped" societies. These societies have managed to escape the "bite of the tarantula" of development, as Julius Evola put it. They may be "underdeveloped" but, they are sane.
It has been money substitutes that have destroyed normality in our Western World (and in the Westernized world).
Our pathological condition does not allow a to return to normality - it would be too much of a shock. We know we are sick, but we are afraid of returning to health, because our illusions will vanish with returning health.
Take the case of a young man who told me the other day, that he is returning to Germany to take a job promoting exports from the region of Saxony. I asked him what did Saxony have to export. He answered, "Chips, for one thing". I didn't have the heart to tell him he was in for a very hard time promoting chips. Then he proudly told me about a VW plant producing an ultra luxury car, going to cost $100 thousand each, twelve cylinders. Surpasses Mercedes and BMW. Put together in a plant with parquet floors and glass walls. The customer gets to see the car he is buying, even can participate in "building" part of it.
This illustrates the pathology of our times. That plant is doomed, a perfect malinvestment. Credit, the enabler.
The survivors in this abnormal world may well be people such as the Indians in the remote jungles of the Amazon.
Funny money has driven the world mad. Part of the reason for buying gold, is that you can sit back and think for a while. It may go up in paper money, or it may go down, but it will always be there and be valuable. Gold is the route to personal normality. The antidote to the "tarantula bite".
I hope you all have more gold that you did last week! And have a happy, normal weekend with family and friends!
Sierra
MO VER MEG
(08/23/02; 17:31:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 83598)
Leigh
I believe they want to make us dependent and controllable.
MOVERMEG
Leigh
(08/23/02; 16:53:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 83597)
Boilermaker
As I read your post, I was reminded of the Depression and World War II years, when people grew gardens, saved string and foil, captured rainwater (like you're doing), and cut down on meat and butter. Don't you feel that people today can re-learn those skills? Even if some businesses close and the country isn't thriving, citizens can survive.
It angers me that the government isn't doing all it can to foster a spirit of conservation and resourcefulness in all of us. You'd think they don't want us to survive or something....
Boilermaker
(08/23/02; 15:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83596)
Water and other resources
Resouces such as water, food, energy, and minerals are the guts of today's economies. Take any one of them away or price it beyond the average consumer's ability to pay and you will reduce that economy to scavenger status. There is another commodity, money, that is a "resource" because of its role as a store of value. It is like a combination of all the other resources, one that is more easy to store. For instance Argentina had no lack of marketable physical resources but their people got caught up in a false sense of wealth and blew the country's currency into oblivion. US dollar hegemony will do the same for the US.
Here's a biological metaphore. Consumption (aka tuberculosis) creates debt (wastage) and soon the economy (body) declines. Sick economies and TB patients can be cured but the illness must be diagnosed and treated, not denied and exacerbated.
The great minds of this forum have chosen gold and silver as their store of wealth. They instinctively know that the "paper will burn" or will be redenominated to oblivion.
I have become more appreciative of water the past few years because my well yield has delined to only 1 gallon/minute recently. Our horses' water comes from the barn roof and I am going to install a cistern for backup storage. It's no fun running out of water in the shower when all soaped up.
I have become more appreciative of gold and silver the past 15 years as I witness the consumptive disease that has created a debt bubble that will destroy the dollar.
Many, many thanks to the individual and collective wisdom that graces this forum every day. I only wish that we could meet face to face periodically to have the pleasure of being in company with kindred souls. Perhaps Michael will host a goldbug jamboree some day when the time is right.
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 15:41:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 83595)
Uruguay Says GDP to Fall Through 2003; May Shut Banks
http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWVW8hSPVXJ1Z3Vh
Snippit:
Washington, Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Uruguay has told Washington lenders that its economy, which has been undercut by neighboring Argentina's default, will tumble by 11 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2003. In a document sent to the International Monetary Fund, Uruguay also said its inflation will reach 40 percent this year compared to 11 percent inflation it predicted in June. ``Uruguay is facing the worst economic crisis in its history,'' the World Bank said in an internal report on its $252 million loan for the nation, part of a $3.8 billion support package cobbled together by the IMF early this month.
In exchange for that aid, Uruguay pledged to shut down insolvent private banks, including two of its three largest, Banco de Montevideo SA and Banco Comercial SA, if they aren't recapitalized by investors. Depositors in Banco Comercial say they already have come up with a plan to save that bank. Critics have also questioned whether the IMF and World Bank's emphasis on lower government salaries, a new tax on pensions and efforts to induce government workers to retire will allow the country's economy to rebound. Uruguay has suffered more than any other country from Argentina's $95 billion debt default in December. Its other neighbor, Brazil, has also been suffering higher borrowing costs and little access to credit as investors have bet that it too won't be able to pay its bills, furthering complicating its hopes.
Black Blade: Going from bad to worse on IMF sanctions. The people will suffer as the IMF strips the people of their assets. Former senator Jack Kemp has been critical of IMF meddling for years. It would be interesting to hear what he has to say on this. If the people only had gold to protect themselves. I still got my gold Uruguayan pesos.
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 15:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 83594)
GLOOMY OUTLOOK FACING BIG BANKS
http://www.nypost.com/business/46746.htm
Snippit:
August 23, 2002 -- Call it bawl street, not Wall Street.
The big investment banking firms, hurting after 30 straight months of down markets and a slow- or no-growth economy, do not seem to be joining the market and economic recovery. Instead, they continue to wander through a drought in both the lucrative initial public offering market and the mergers and acquisitions game. As a result, pros expect more profit shortfalls and yet another round of cost-cutting, including layoffs.
Such puny expectations are bad news not only for the Street, but also for New York City, which is already facing a potential budget deficit because of Wall Street's faltering fortunes. And property brokers are quaking with fear that another round of layoffs among high-paid Wall Streeters could be the pin that pops the real estate bubble. "We've turned more negative on the industry," said Tanya Azarchs, managing director of financial institutions research at S&P. "We do see that it may be turning worse. We are not trying to say that we expect a meltdown in the industry." Azarchs said the legal issues, congressional and Justice Department investigations and civil lawsuits have created "unquantifiable" risk around the big Wall Street houses.
Black Blade: A potential crash for financial instutions and a real estate bubble crash to boot. Hmmm…
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 15:24:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 83593)
Vanguard's Bogle Says Thousands of U.S. Stock Funds May Close
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWXD4xUuVmFuZ3Vh
Snippit:
New York, Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The loss is staggering: From March 2000 to July 2002, the value of the U.S. stock market plunged by $3.7 trillion. The bear grip will squeeze out the excesses in the U.S. mutual fund industry, says John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, the second-largest U.S. mutual fund manager, with $570 billion in assets. After a 28-month, 41 percent plunge in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, the $6.6 trillion fund industry is poised for a shakeout that could claim half of its 4,800 equity funds, he says.
``This is a seminal moment for the industry,'' Bogle says. Many of the funds that sprang up during the bull market -- much like the dot-com companies they invested in -- have never made much money for investors, says Russel Kinnel, director of fund analysis at Morningstar Inc., a Chicago-based research company. Billionaire Warren Buffett says companies need to curb unrealistic assumptions about their fund returns. Ford Motor Co., SBC Communications Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. have said in SEC filings this year that they expect their funds to generate returns of 9 percent or better in 2002. Buffett called such forecasts ``wildly optimistic'' in a July 24 op-ed article in the New York Times.
Black Blade: This looks interesting.
USAGOLD
(08/23/02; 14:31:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 83592)
Belgian. .
With respect to the DB situation and your post on parity as it may or may not relate to the gold price: Your thought immediately registered the response that "No, it cannot be because the natural follow-up is that gold would change hands. No need to invent a price for gold unless one wanted to resolve the currency equation you mention."
At the same time, I have wondered for some time what happens when banks merge across international borders and one of them brings with it a gold loan book on which they could default, or in which major counterparties register concerns about the same -- at the central bank level. At that point, if the bullion bank is unable to perform, which nation's central bank should be called upon as gold lender of last resort??
And what are the economic and political implications of such a turn of events. Sticking with the DB example, why should Bundesbank be responsible for shaky gold loans brought across the water from New York?
Aside: That assumes of course that central banks have been acting as lender of last resort and disguised the operations as "auctions" and "sales" as a means to an end (other than the lame excuses given publicly <Next thing you know Welteke is going to want to sell gold in order to finance a perpetual Octoberfest>. These meanderings are still theoretical by and large, though the words and actions of both Brown and Welteke seem eerily similar.
And lastly, for all you scenario builders, this calls to question what role the U.S. Federal Reserve might be forced to play if a major U.S. bullion bank visited THE ABYSS.
Your thoughts?
Any and all views welcome.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(08/23/02; 13:29:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 83591)
Order yours now!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
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The Hoople
(08/23/02; 13:20:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 83590)
Operative
Agreed. I still have no doubt although wars are last resort they will eventually be required. If wealth was measured in fresh water our Canadian neighbors would be wealthy indeed! What better way for NWO to control populations- water and food rationing. Maybe gold control will ultimately determine water control?
Operative
(08/23/02; 13:14:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 83589)
Today Is...
As the Dow slowly sinks into the sunset (-192.00) on this friday afternoon, I want to bid all here a great weekend.
Gold still strongly above 300 in what is suppose to be the "weak season". Not bad, not bad at all.
Before I could even type this message the Dow hits -203 and the curbs kick in. (Really Big Smile)
Off to wash the ole pickemup truck, maybe give myself a hose rinse and then taking the goddess out to dinner.
CHEERS!!
Operative
(08/23/02; 12:56:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 83588)
@ Hoople
Might I make a not so minor change to your post on water.
"The diminishing fresh-water reserves of this planet could only lead me to conclude, much
like oil, wars will be fought over water."
My proposed change is moving your statement from a future tense to the present. are being fought. This as noted in your post that "someone" is grabbing up your precious water source already. They will determine how much you are to recieve and what price you will pay.
War, the kind with bullets and bombs is a last measure/resort by those attempting to control resources.
It is more cost effective, requires less human resources, and leaves the targeted object/area unharmed, to simply bribe officials who will then steal with a swipe of the pen.
Recent months have added to my thought that I have less to fear from terrorists or Saddam but I should watch more carefully those in power either in government or corporate boardrooms.
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 12:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 83587)
Re: Carl H, Glennh10, Gandy, and Operative
Carl H – I have been saying the same thing about NG data for a long time. During the IEA comment period I submitted my comments that also included requiring all 110 NG producers to submit data. I was critical of the AGA and IEA methodology and data collection for years. I was worried that a government agency would be worse, however, I had hoped for the best.
Glennh10 and Gandalf – Yes, desalination is an expensive and energy intensive business. Though there is a desalination facility in Marin County, California. We may have to consider using more solutions like this in coming years. The Saudis are fortunate enough to have ready access to abundant energy supply for desalination.
Operative – I mostly have worked with Shan and Hechein people in the northern regions of Burma. Many times I have turned a corner on an trail or walked over grass covered areas and almost fell into a hand-dug shaft. They just stop anywhere and dig a shaft and eventually abandon the spot. It can be quite a surprise and dangerous. Yikes!
Cheers!
- Black Blade
Carl H
(08/23/02; 12:15:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 83586)
US natgas groups fear manipulation of weekly data
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020823/utilities_natgas_eia_1.html
I have been saying here since March that the EIA data since January 2001 is fake.
It isn't the companies -- it is the EIA itself. The gas industry is being cheated out of much of the value of it's resource.
Gandalf the White
(08/23/02; 12:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 83585)
Sir Glennh's Question <;-)
glennh10 (08/23/02; 11:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 83583)
Fresh Water Problems
Why is de-salinization of ocean water never discussed or considered?
===
IT IS often considered and many times utilized !
Got REAL MONIES to spend for it ?
Taking a small amount of material from seawater or brackish water, to produce a Potable Water is not an easy or cheap procedure ! YES, lots of cheap methods like solar evaporation --- BUT think of the areas and volumes needed.
The RICHER portions of the world do have such systems.
Ever been to Saudi Arabia and seen theirs ?
<;-)
TownCrier
(08/23/02; 11:52:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 83584)
More Short & (not so) Sweet -- AOL Time Warner Falls 8%
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020823/aol_stocks_5.html
HEADLINE: AOL Time Warner Falls on Probe Fears
Fri 12:10pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of AOL Time Warner Inc. tumbled almost 8 percent in early Friday trading on concerns the world's largest media company may take another huge write-down of its assets and following reports regulators may widen their probe of the company's finances.
The company took a $54 billion charge in the first quarter -- the largest ever -- to write down the value of America Online's acquisition of Time Warner.
The company attributed the first-quarter write-down to the decline in stock value of Time Warner....
"If the stock price was the cause of the last write-down, the market is asking, is it judicious to assume that there will be another one?" said Gerard Klauer Mattison analyst Jeffrey Logsdon. "It's not unreasonable to make that assumption, if you apply the same logic....."
-----------------
It's YOUR portfolio. Are the managers of your companies working FOR you or AGAINST you? How about the business cycle?
Pick up your feet and buy gold. It's time to stop struggling against the tide.
R.
glennh10
(08/23/02; 11:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 83583)
Fresh Water Problems
Why is de-salinization of ocean water never discussed or considered?
TownCrier
(08/23/02; 11:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 83582)
Short & (not so) Sweet
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020823/financial_citigroup_probe_2.html
HEADLINE: Citi Research Probe to Include AT&T Deal
Fri 11:17am ET
A probe into the integrity of Citigroup Inc.'s stock research has widened to include a lucrative AT&T Corp. deal the firm's investment banking division won in 1999.
Citigroup is vulnerable to "headline risk," analysts have noted, as it is also being investigated for its role in the Enron collapse. It also means executives like Michael Carpenter, Salomon's CEO, are spending more time dealing with regulatory issues rather than trying to improve the business.
"Clearly, the outstanding issues linked to Enron, WorldCom, and the Spitzer investigations are taking their toll on management's time at Citigroup," Morgan Stanley analyst Henry McVey said.
--------------
Sometimes you've just got to recongnize the roughness of the seas and stop trying to trade your capital in and out of peril. Buy gold and simply let your wealth be wealth -- accumulated for the days when you might need to draw upon it.
On your behalf the staff of brokers at USAGOLD - Centennial can take the difficulty out of the task of locating the gold you need and getting it into your hands. Give them a call.
R.
The Hoople
(08/23/02; 11:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 83581)
Operative
The diminishing fresh-water reserves of this planet could only lead me to conclude, much like oil, wars will be fought over water. I live in a county that just gave a utility (probably getting acquired by a German utility) unlimited access to our below-ground aquifers for a paltry $500,000 a year. Our water tables have been declining for decades yet this short sighted decision prevailed. Gold and water- get you some.
sector
(08/23/02; 11:21:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 83580)
Koizumi sets stage for U-turn in bank policy
Does this mean we can put our money back in Japanese banks?...NOPE!
By David Ibison in Tokyo
Published: August 22 2002 18:36 | Last Updated: August 22 2002 21:23
The administration of Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's prime minister, on Thursday set the stage for one of the most significant policy U-turns in its 16-month rule by indicating that it may keep in place full government guarantees on ordinary bank accounts.
Full deposit guarantees were introduced in June 1996 to shore up confidence in the banks after a series of collapses. Their scheduled removal next April and replacement with a ¥10m ($83,500) cap was supposed to signal that the banks were strong enough to stand alone.
The Financial Services Agency, the main regulator, said on Thursday that the maintenance of full guarantees on ordinary accounts that paid no interest was under consideration but cautioned that it was a proposal and not yet policy.
"If it goes ahead it would be a big step backward and call into question the government's sincerity and the reform process under Mr Koizumi," said Brian Waterhouse, banks analyst at HSBC Securities.
There are fears that, as the deadline for the introduction of the ¥10m cap approaches, depositors will shift accounts from weaker banks to stronger banks, potentially triggering a run on certain institutions and forcing them into insolvency.
Richard Jerram, economist at ING, said several institutions might not survive the changes to the insurance scheme next April. "The government would be taking a significant risk if it allowed deposit insurance reform to go ahead as planned unless there was confidence in the health of the financial system."
The Tokyo metropolitan government confirmed this week that it is to start moving its funds to banks it has determined are financially strong and away from banks it deems to be under pressure.
Individual depositors have also started shifting funds to banks that they have deemed "too big to fail", such as the large city banks, putting pressure on regional lenders that is set to increase as the April deadline approaches.
Mr Koizumi's political style has been characterised by bold reform policies subsequently watered down in order to get them implemented. The prime minister in July approved a vastly diluted bill for the reform of the postal services - an issue on which he had said he was inflexible.
Mr Jerram summarised the problems with his policy of compromise. "If you are going to impose limits on deposit insurance then you need to have a healthy banking system that enjoys the confidence of depositors. Alternatively, if you are going to persist with unlimited deposit insurance, then there is less pressure to create a sound banking system."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It looks as if the Japanese have bitten off more than they can chew. The savings of the elderly Japanese have flown the coop already.
They already hated the LDP and Koizumi after he sacked their darling Foreign minister last year. When the mopes decided to yank deposit insurance they bolted and are unlikely to ever return. Lots of the $620 Billion is in mattresses and setting up again this to move into gold kilo bars in an increasing flow.
The Japanese alone can smash the cabal and the BIS. Then there's the Saudis.
It is only a matter of time before the cabal has it's back broken.
Operative
(08/23/02; 11:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 83579)
(No Subject)
@ Belgian, wishing you a relaxing and enjoyable holiday!
You have earned it. Already miss your postings so look forward to your return.
@ Black Blade, Hope you still have both legs after the Burma trip. Met a few Karen and found them to be a great people.
Seen a few mines over there myself in the boonies, but not the kind you dig for gold. You are a good man, buy that Korean vet a cold one and put on my tab. Take care, get some bug repellant (avon skin so soft lol) cause it looks like the Nile Virus is heading your direction.
@ sector, thanks for the fund story link. Printing out some copies to hand out to a few "got thier heads in the sand" friends.
sector
(08/23/02; 10:58:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 83578)
"Fue" = "Fuel"
eom
sector
(08/23/02; 10:57:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 83577)
Lucent Denies Report of 15,000 Job Cuts
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20020823&ID=1879311
August 23, 2002 11:51:00 AM ET
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) is planning another round of job cuts that could reduce the telecommunications equipment maker's work force by as much as 15,000 jobs, or 33 percent below previous targets, a financial news Web site said on Friday, but Lucent denied the report.
The Murray Hill, New Jersey-based company's Chief Executive Patricia Russo is pushing another round of restructuring as it pushes to return to profits in a market where large telephone companies are still curtailing spending, TheStreet.com said, citing people close to the company.
Lucent is preparing to drop product lines and cut its total work force, eventually bringing employment to between 30,000 and 35,000 people, the Web site said.
Lucent spokeswoman Michelle Davidson denied the report.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nothing is confirmed until it is officially denied.
More "fue" to feed the recession.
The DOW should rocket up 200 points with news like this.
sector
(08/23/02; 10:25:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 83576)
Vanguard's Bogle Says Thousands of U.S. Stock Funds May Close
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APWXD4xUuVmFuZ3Vh
By Joel Dreyfuss and Ed Leefeldt
New York, Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The loss is staggering: From March 2000 to July 2002, the value of the U.S. stock market plunged by $3.7 trillion.
The bear grip will squeeze out the excesses in the U.S. mutual fund industry, says John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, the second-largest U.S. mutual fund manager, with $570 billion in assets. After a 28-month, 41 percent plunge in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, the $6.6 trillion fund industry is poised for a shakeout that could claim half of its 4,800 equity funds, he says.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Does the word "Close" mean one gets what's left of his/her money back?
Or are the mutual fund "Closures" carrying "Fees" and "Slight Delays" before one can claim the remainder of their funds?
Operative
(08/23/02; 10:22:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 83575)
Some Weekend Reading Material, Who Owns the Water?
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020902&s=barlow
This article ties in with my post concerning the gathering of resources. An off topic subject I confess, but I think it is important to understand the battle not only over gold, but other resources as well. Gold, a must have in your possession item, will only carry you so far.
I have a personal interest in watching the water issue since a friend of mine owns a very successful scuba diving business in the middle of florida. About 30 years ago he purchased a large spring (flow of millions of gallons per day) in the middle of nowhere. He spent a small fortune to clean up the land around, build some cabins, and advertise to the diving community to attract business. It is a an amazing place to camp, scuba dive, and enjoy a relaxing weekend. Several years ago the state of Florida decided they wanted the access to water. They offered him less than he had paid for the land to begin with. A polite no was his response. Since then, the state has been trying to take his land with no compensation. Example, a few months ago the state sent an environmental inspector to visit, found a battery that he had removed from a tractor a day earlier sitting on the ground. They wrote him up for improper disposal and a stiff fine. Florida will continue to do this until the state takes over the property. As a footnote, his property looks better than most state/federal parks that I have visited. Exceptionally clean, well kept, and very well maintained. His public restrooms/showers are one of a few that my wife will use. (She is a doctor, and yes, long road trips are a real pain. <grin>)
I beg your indulgence on this post, but if you must, flame away.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(08/23/02; 10:16:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 83574)
Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door.
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
Gold Today!Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.Call USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals
(800) 869-5115
Socrates964
(08/23/02; 09:49:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 83573)
Curioser and curioser...
Just gets weirder - gold stocks now appear to be diverging bullishly from POG. Someone is nibbling...
Evidently, the idea that gold stocks move inversely to the Dow/DJI presumes that you have a single pool of investors who are always overweight one asset class and underweight the other.
But, if in fact, you had one class of investor buying one class of share and another buying the other, then the inverse relationship would break down.
Gold stock volumes still very low, but I sense that the pendulum is now swinging back from fear to greed.
Operative
(08/23/02; 09:42:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 83572)
Sneek A Peek, or A Behind The Scenes Look At the Next War In Iraq
http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=IA10602
It will be a differant war this time. This article gives a great look into what to expect. Those naysayers that have been speaking out are doing so to provide fluff or misintell for the uninformed. This writing provides valuable insight how the next war in Iraq will play out. (my humble opinion of course) Dont rush through the article, take time to let the concepts develop. Pay close attention to names, you will see more of the same soon. With just a little reading inbetween the lines you will have a very accurate idea on how the next objective is to be accomplished. Hint, we dont need the fall of Saddam or the capital city to win. Nice but we can wait on those two issues if need be. But his successor is already waiting in the wings. If Saddam wants to put up a fight, he needs to make his moves now.
sector
(08/23/02; 08:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 83571)
Top US general attacks hawks' strategy on Iraq
Friday 23 August 2002
By David Rennie in Washington and Anton La Guardia, Diplomatic Editor
(Filed: 23/08/2002)
One of America's most senior generals has condemned as "foolish" plans backed by leading Washington hawks to topple Saddam Hussein by using special forces in a repetition of the tactics that succeeded in Afghanistan.
Gen James L Jones, the four-star commander of the Marine Corps who will be taking over as Nato's supreme allied commander, was clearly addressing high-ranking conservatives in and around the Pentagon.
Some have demanded a short, sharp attack on Iraq involving local opposition forces backed by American special forces using high-tech weapons and air strikes.
Gen Jones told the Washington Times that it would not be enough to copy the Afghanistan tactics. He hinted that America would have to build up big conventional forces if it wanted to be certain of success.
"Afghanistan was Afghanistan; Iraq is Iraq," he said, "It would be foolish, if you were ever committed to going into Iraq, to think that the principles that were successful in Afghanistan would necessarily be successful in Iraq. In my opinion, they would not." He made his comments as Britain, America's only likely active ally in military operations, again distanced itself from President Bush's commitment to "regime change" in Baghdad.
Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, made clear that Britain's first priority was the return of United Nations arms inspectors.
He dropped repeated hints that Saddam would not be attacked if he complied with UN demands, saying that "plainly the case for military action recedes" if Iraq admitted monitors and allowed them to work freely.
Gen Jones is the latest in a succession of prominent American military and political figures to issue warnings about the dangers of rushing headlong into war.
He predicted that defeating Iraqi troops would be "hard stuff", because they would be cornered in their homeland, with nowhere to run. Special operations troops could have "a great mission in Iraq", he said. But they should not be the only option.
"You better have Plan B in your hip pocket, because when you attack someone who has any kind of well-trained army on their homeland they are going to fight differently than if they engage you, say, in Kuwait.
"The defence of a homeland is hard stuff because they are not going anywhere." Hawkish civilians who favour the special forces approach argue that most of Saddam's forces will surrender in the face of American firepower, like the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The debate is as much ideological as strategic. High-profile conservative civilians, led by the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, see it as their mission to wean the top brass from their love of huge armies and heavy weaponry.
Diplomatic limitations also play their part: any plan involving large numbers of conventional forces could run into the opposition of wary allies, from Turkey to friendly Arab nations such as Qatar and Bahrain, which would be needed as launchpads and assembly grounds for planes and supplies.
But senior generals - Vietnam veterans with a horror of risking American casualties - have proved far more cautious, pushing for an overwhelming force of hundreds of thousands of troops in an operation akin to the 1991 Gulf war.
The Pentagon's key figure on Iraq, Gen Tommy Franks, is reported to have come up with a compromise battle plan. This could involve some 80,000 troops, backed by high-tech weapons and air strikes.
Amid signs of growing misgivings in America, the White House has been at pains in recent days to indicate that final decisions on military action have not been taken. Deriding the media for "churning" in a frenzy over Iraq, the president described himself this week as "a patient man" and promised to consult allies and members of Congress before taking action.
Mr Straw said on Radio Four's Today programme that it was "jumping the gun" to talk of war in Iraq.
"If Saddam Hussein allows weapons inspectors back without conditions, without restriction on them, so they are able to do their job properly, then circumstances will change."
He insisted that America "would obviously much prefer this to be resolved in a peaceful manner".
But despite Foreign Office assurances that there is no split with Washington, Mr Straw's comments were at odds with America's public commitment to topple Saddam whether UN inspectors return or not.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Iraqi War seems militarily and geopolitically illogical on its face. Look for a hidden agenda.
The only one that seems to fit is that the US knows of a 9/11/2002 terrorist attack and is preparing retaliation.
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 06:37:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 83570)
Pak claims India attacked army post along the LOC
ISLAMABAD (AFX-ASIA) - Indian troops suffered heavy casualties after they launched a "totally unprovoked attack" overnight on a Pakistani army post along the Line of Control, the de-facto border in Kashmir, Pakistan's military spokesman Major General Rashid Qureshi said.
Speaking at a press conference here, Qureshi also alleged that the Indian Air Force carried out up to five raids after Indian troops tried to attack the Gultari post on the LoC.
However, India immediately denied that there was any flare-up or that it engaged its airforce.
"Beyond mortar and artillery fire no such incident has happened as being alleged ... (such as) the use of air power etc," defence ministry spokesman PK Bandhopadhay told Agence France Presse in New Delhi.
"Incidents of firing in certain areas of the LoC is a frequent thing and fairly common," the official said.
Sources from the Indian Air Force also denied the launch of war planes from any military bases towards Kashmir on combat assignment in the past 24 hours.
Qureshi said the Indian toll was "in excess of double figures," while Pakistani soldiers suffered no casualties.
The Indian air force was then brought in and carried out up to five bombing raids on the post, Qureshi said.
"Unable to make any headway the Indians in their frustration resorted to highly escalatory act by bombing the area using the Indian Air Force."
"The very act of using the Indian air force is highly a irresponsible and escalatory act," Qureshi said.
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 06:15:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 83569)
Germany plans to raise corporate taxes!
Rome, Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Italy wants European finance ministers to exclude some infrastructure spending from annual budget calculations so they can spend more money to boost growth, said Vito Tanzi, a deputy finance minister.
``Tremonti has been trying to get people to accept more flexibility,'' Tanzi said in a telephone interview. Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti is holding informal talks with ministers and the European Commission on the issue, he said.
To protect the single currency, the dozen countries that adopted the euro agreed to limit their deficits to less than 3 percent of gross domestic product, and to bring their budgets ``close to'' balance by 2004. Italy, France and Spain pledged to cut taxes next year to stimulate the stagnating economy, jeopardizing the integrity of the budget agreement.
After floods devastated the country, Germany abandoned its plan to reduce taxes next year. Instead, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder announced yesterday he plans to raise corporate taxes to fund reconstruction work.
________________
Schroeder hasn't got a clue. I thought Japan was the worst
managed first world country. Germany is in the hunt!
Raising taxes now will be a killer for corporate growth just
when its weakening. Truly an amazing decision. To fund more
government spending! (inflation)
Blackjack
(08/23/02; 06:01:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 83568)
Re: Black Blade Gold Banking Schemes
Sounds like you've traveled quite a bit. Come to think
of it, I lived for a few years in Ghana. In colonial days
as a British Colony it was called the Gold Coast.
In fact I have some ashanti gold weights used in old
days to weigh Gold. The weights are in the shape of
tribal symbols. I should take them out and rub them
for luck LOL.
Golden Bear
(08/23/02; 05:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 83567)
Enron's Kopper
Just got this via email newsletter...
Ratto Uno
=========
In the war against corporate scoundrels, the good guys cornered their first and all-important rat - Ratto Uno - this week.
Ratto Uno means everything. In situations like Enron, Global Crossing, Adelphia, Tyco, and WorldCom, the crooks band together, 5th their way through the investigations, and become a wall no one can penetrate.
- - - - -
It is nearly twenty years since US authorities received that weird dyslexic letter from South America which accused two US brokers of insider trading. When the authorities followed the trail to a Swiss bank in the Bahamas, they accidentally stumbled upon Dennis Levine.
Once the good guys had Levine, they had Ivan Boesky; once they had Boesky, they had the King himself - Michael Milken.
Dennis Levine was Ratto Uno in the junk bond insider trading scandal. It's difficult to prove insider trading; the good guys amass all the materials they can, but these are often not enough.
To get a break a case like this, the good guys need Ratto Uno. Dennis Levine was Ratto Uno for the junk bond unraveling; Michael Kopper is Ratto Uno for the Enron one.
- - - - -
Kopper was chief lieutenant to Enron's CFO Andrew Fastow. Kopper pleaded to two counts, agreed to repay some $12 million, and agreed to rat on his boss Fastow.
The idea is to now pressure Fastow in the same way - to make him the next rat. And so forth and so on.
- - - - -
Kopper's testimony is already shedding new light on what really went on at Enron. While the motive for Enron's complex partnerships was assumed to have been to hide the company's debt, keep salaries high, and make its stock more valuable, Kopper now suggests whole deals were explicitly structured to allow the Enron execs to skim money.
Suspicions are growing that this iceberg is a game of 'chicken' - capitalise on an inflated market and dump at the very last minute.
Kopper has admitted to having created partnerships designed to enrich himself, his former boss Andrew S. Fastow, and others at Enron at the expense of the company and its shareholders.
He admitted to three partnership schemes designed to look like legitimate business deals. He said friends, selected Enron workers, and members of Fastow's family stepped up as investors, and, using loans from Fastow or Kopper, put up money to make the partnerships appear independent of Enron.
The partnerships then made deals with Enron that generated millions of dollars. Kopper kept some profits and generated massive fees for handling the deals. He also funneled money back to Fastow, Fastow's family, as well as the investors.
- - - - -
Sherron Watkins, an Enron executive who also worked for Fastow, warned Ken Lay about accounting problems. She also asked for, and was granted, a reassignment to another department, fearful that a vengeful Fastow would try to have her fired.
Her memo to Lay was released by Congress in January. It centred on entities other than the three partnerships on which prosecutors are now focusing.
- - - - -
Kopper was selected to run the schemes because he was not a senior officer like Fastow, and therefore not required to disclose his role in a proxy statement. However, it violated Enron's Code of Conduct because it was not approved by then-chief executive Kenneth Lay.
=======================================================
GB: The scandals continue unabated...
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 05:28:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 83566)
New York Attorney General's Office Broadens Inquiry Into Salomon
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20020823/bs_dowjones/200208230401000143
Snippit:
The New York state attorney general's office, broadening its inquiry into research practices at Salomon Smith Barney, is examining how the Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) unit won a lucrative financing assignment from AT&T Corp. and what role Citigroup Chief Executive Sanford Weill may have played, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. The assignment was controversial from the start. Salomon Smith Barney was selected as a lead underwriter only after Salomon telecom analyst Jack Grubman upgraded his rating on AT&T to a "buy." For years, Mr. Grubman had been bearish on AT&T stock, and Salomon often had been excluded from top spots in underwriting AT&T transactions. And, as reported in The Wall Street Journal at the time, the change by Mr. Grubman came after Mr. Weill, an AT&T board member, nudged the analyst to give AT&T a fresh hearing, people familiar with the deal said. AT&T Chairman C. Michael Armstrong regularly had asked Mr. Weill to urge Mr. Grubman to revisit the merits of AT&T's cable strategy, a person familiar with the matter says. Mr. Armstrong also was a Citigroup board member at the time.
Black Blade: The scandals on Wall Street are still coming to light. Investors had hoped that these scandals had run the course by now, however, these scandals now appear to be only the tip of the iceberg as the financial sector is the next target for criminal investigators. We should see more scandals come to light as the under staffed investigating agencies expand their probes.
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 05:08:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 83565)
Correction - Weill Probe
Sandy Weill is under investigation by the New York AG. This will likely expand the SEC and Congressional probes into Citigroup. This should be today's "big" story.
- Black Blade
Belgian
(08/23/02; 04:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 83564)
Hoi Saxulum
No objection for e-mail-adress exchanges, neighbour Dutchman. But am leaving today for holidays without net-connection (on purpose). Drop your message(s) in my box.
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 04:47:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 83563)
"Scandal Of The Day" - Former Citigroup CEO Sandy Wyell Next For The "Perp Walk"?
Breaking News - The former CEO of Citigroup may be the next high profile CEO to be arrested. The SEC probe has indicated that he had pressured analyst Jack Grubman (who recently "resigned") to give glowing reviews of telecom stocks. Citigroup had banking business and other business relationships with these companies. It is rumored that Grubman may "flip" and give testimony in exchange for immunity from prosecution. Citigroup (C) shares are taking a big hit this morning. This will also likely increase pressure on Congress to subpoena former Treasury Secretary and now Citigroup CEO Robert Rubin to testify. It also rumored that Rubin may have to answer for meddling in the Enron probe as well. This is yet another "BIG" developing scandal that could rip through Wall Street this morning. "Interesting Times"
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 04:35:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 83562)
Saudi, OPEC To Fill Any Iraqi War Oil Gap - Saudi Source
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020823/0553000217_1.html
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cover any shortfall in oil supplies that could follow a U.S. military action against Iraq, a Saudi oil source said Friday. "Using oil as a weapon does not accomplish anything," the source told Dow Jones Newswires. "Having moderate oil prices (around $25 a barrel), this is also in the Saudi interest."
Black Blade: Just a brief statement with no details yet. So far NY crude is off 26 cents. Apparently the Saudis are counting on a US-Iraq conflict if one were to read between the lines.
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 04:25:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 83561)
(No Subject)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020823/enron_fastow_report_2.html
US Seeks Freeze on Ex-Enron CFO Accounts
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal prosecutors investigating collapsed energy firm Enron Corp. (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK) were meeting a judge late on Thursday in a bid to freeze the bank accounts of its former Chief Financial Officer Andrew Fastow, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. It wasn't clear whether the judge had approved the freezing of the accounts of Fastow and his family members, the Journal reported, citing unnamed sources.
Black Blade: You would think that they would at least wait until construction on his Florida mansion was completed.
BTW, I see that a protest in Oregon got out of hand as protestors went on a rampage and battled police. Police used water cannons, pepper spray and batons, while protestors threw various objects and threw punches. In Minneapolis another protest erupted after police shot a 10-year-old boy in another drug bust gone bad. Rioters torched a news van and battled police. Just imagine how bad things can get when the economy collapses. This may be a preview of things to come as these events demonstrate as well as from what we witnessed during the recent riots in Argentina and Uruguay. These "interesting times" are probably going to get even more "interesting".
Black Blade
(08/23/02; 04:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 83560)
Breaking News - Saudi Vows To Keep Oil Flowing
A Saudi official just announced that they will keep oil flowing and even increase production if the US goes to war with Iraq. This will pressure oil prices today and may give support to equities (though not the energy sector).
In other news, the government is moving to freeze assets of Enron executives before they can be liquidated and moved. Other assets of other executives in companies under investigation are also expected to be frozen. Meanwhile the SEC is expanding a probe of Citigroup. There are renewed calls for former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin (now CEO of Citigroup) to testify before Congress under protest by committee chairman Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT).
A lot of interesting news this morning.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(8/23/02; 03:46:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 83559)
HP staff face new 'Friday List' of job cuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/020823/1028185977895_1.html
Snippit:
Staff at Hewlett-Packard are braced for another deep round of job cuts today as the US computer company takes its latest steps to meet promised cost reductions amid weakening demand across a wide range of technology products. Steve Milunovich, technology strategist at Merrill Lynch, said: "They need to [meet promised cost reductions] because the revenue side does not look good." The company refused to confirm today's expected job cuts. The latest redundancies at HP since the merger with Compaq - dubbed "the Friday List" by staff - are part of a division-by-division exercise to trim the headcount. HP said at the time of the deal's completion in the spring that it planned to cut 10,000 jobs by the end of its fiscal year in October, with another 5,000 earmarked for the following year. With no improvement since then in the outlook for the technology sector in general, Wall Street is now looking for HP to report considerable headway on this front when it reports earnings next week.
Black Blade: Looks like the "Bone Pile" is due for more growth. Several tech, telecom, and energy sector companies have announced and are preparing to announce additional job cuts. The "economic recovery" story is losing credibility.
DOWNUNDER
(8/23/02; 03:42:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 83558)
@SAXULUM - - - CAN U ENGLISH SPAKUM ?
Just kidding -kind off - - - :)
Black Blade
(8/23/02; 03:33:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 83557)
Re: Blackjack – Gold Banking Schemes
Not long ago India attempted to float another scheme through the banks where people would deposit their gold and take receipts in exchange. It failed miserably as people in this part of the world are not very trusting of banks (and for good reason). I think that this scheme has been all but abandoned due to lack of interest. I don't know all the gory details about this scheme, however, this new scheme appears to be yet another variation on the same theme. It may float with the banks and institutions, but it would be very difficult to get the average person in India or elsewhere in Asia to participate.
I have worked and lived in that part of the world and the average to lower socio-economic classes still prefer gold over all else. I recall several occasions when in remote jungle regions in Myanmar (formerly Burma), Laos, and Thailand where people with little contact with the central government (let alone with the outside world) who would work all day under grueling conditions to mine a rice grain sized particle of gold. I have visited and lived with these people and after some trust is gained they would proudly show me their wealth in a few grams of gold. I would flash some local currency to see their reaction and they would laugh or in some more remote areas would even wonder what it was. They had little concept of currency, but they sure knew what gold was. These are wonderful people, but it would be a shame for a government or banking institution to take advantage of these people. I think that such schemes will be a tough sell even in India. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Saxulum^
(8/23/02; 03:13:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 83556)
@ Belgian
goede morgen beste buur,
I've noticed the same arrogance at DB.
Kind of like "The customer should be very greatfull that we allow him to talk to us" attitude...
There are however other places where I've experienced a complete opposite, service minded cooperation.
(Ik bespreek ze liever niet op deze plaats, maar aangezien we volgens mij volledig op een golflengte zitten, lijkt het me zinvol om eens direct contact te leggen. Ik stuur MK een berichtje dat hij wat mij betreft onze emails kan uitwisselen. Dan hoor ik wel of je daar ook voor voelt.)
Sorry for the Babylonic bla-bla
but a golden cheers anyway
Blackjack
(8/23/02; 03:01:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 83555)
Debt and more Debt
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - The United States signed a deal in Islamabad on Friday for the consolidation and restructuring of $3 billion in debt owed by military-ruled Pakistan, a key ally in its war against terror.
The debt agreement came two days after Pakistani leader General Pervez Musharraf made constitutional changes that critics said threatened the south Asian nation's return to democratic rule. President Bush on Thursday praised Musharraf as a stalwart ally in the war on terrorism.
The debt covered in the deal is the U.S. portion of $12.5 billion of bilateral debt the Paris Club group of donors agreed to reschedule last November after Pakistan abandoned its support for the former Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan.
The agreement was signed by U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Nancy Powell and Pakistan's Finance Ministry.
It covers debt outstanding as of the end of November last year, arrears and accrued interest. The debt includes loans from USAID, the U.S. Eximbank and for agriculture and defense, a statement issued to reporters at the signing ceremony said.
In addition, it said, Pakistan would work closely with the U.S. administration to secure cancellation of $1 billion of U.S. debt under a commitment made by Bush to Musharraf in February.
___________________
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey will need continued support from the International Monetary Fund for the coming two or three years, former economy minister Kemal Dervis said late on Thursday.
Dervis was the architect of a three-year $16 billion loan deal signed with the fund in February 2002. He resigned from office earlier this month to pursue a political career and was expected to formally join a center-left party on Friday.
"Turkey needs IMF support for two or three years more," Dervis said in a television interview late on Thursday. It was not clear whether he was referring to the existing loan package or to a need for new lending.
Analysts say Turkey will probably need loans of some sort next year but a general election on November 3, the possibility of a war in neighboring Iraq and volatile domestic interest rates make it hard to say how much it will need and from where.
Dervis, who came to Turkey from the World Bank last year as an independent, has tied his electoral fortunes to the Republican People's Party, offering it as the standard-bearer for secular Turks who want to keep the IMF deal on the rails.
Dervis did not rule out a post-election coalition with the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a powerful conservative group suspected by some in the military of Islamist leanings.
The economist, however, stressed that Turkey's debt load and economic problems were so heavy that the only successful coalition would be one that shared the same "world view."
"Unless there is harmony in the government, I cannot take on responsibility for the economy," he said.
Financial markets would like to see Dervis return to the economy ministry. His prestige is seen as essential to good relations with international lenders and to bringing down the cost of running a domestic debt load of around $80 billion.
______________
Running the world is expensive
Blackjack
(8/23/02; 02:52:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 83554)
New Gold Fund in India
http://in.biz.yahoo.com/020822/77/1u5f6.html
Banks are waiting for a formal nod from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to participate in an unique gold scheme to be launched by Benchmark Asset Management Company, reports The Times of India. Though the fund filed an offer document three months ago, the scheme is still not launched because it proposes to invest in gold receipts issued by bullion banks. Banks are wary of entering into a transaction with a fund house without proper clearances from the regulator.
Benchmark filed an offer document with the Securities and Exchange Board of India to launch a fund which would be denominated in gold where its net asset value will be always equal to one gram of gold. The fund has also asked for a nod from the RBI. The investments will be made in deposit papers issued by RBI-permitted bullion banks, whereby even the investments are directly related to actual gold prices.
_______________
More interest in PM developing
Belgian
(8/23/02; 01:20:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 83553)
Morning
As a Deutsche Bank client, all my (insistent and repetitive) questions on their possible Gold situation, remain simply unanswered. Not even a blablablah formality as to get rid of an annoying customer. Significant or not ?
DB has running a confetti collection program, where savers are offered much higher interest rates for a period of six months. Sort of an emergency recapitalization (?) to add to reserves (solvability) ?
The consensus that the $/€ exchange rate will consolidate around parity, might be the result of US/Euroland, temporary agreements on POG ? A drama at Deutshe Bank, because of Gold, would be very, very unwellcome, economically/financially and political (coming-elections) !
Available Gold getting scarce, very scarce indeed.
@ Sector : Am afraid Sir, I have to agree with your frightening and dramatic picture of another "terror-accident". It just doesn't make sense to increase (artificially) tensions, when we are in such an unfortunate economic environment. Rational irrationality !? Perfectly acted upon by US-media. All news events (?), need to be de-coded as to understand their real meaning. Far from being a "detente". A silent "positionning" before the storm.
But who cares when being able to capture another loan for house, car, holliday or whatever. Bread and games ! Keep on refinancing ! Inflate all the unburstable bubbles !
Horatio
(8/23/02; 00:36:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 83552)
S.Africa
Is a 5 % dividend a good reason to buy Anglo? It seems to me for S. Africa mines that traditionally have high costs ,not low as some would have us believe is a better investment than American and Canadian mines.The only way they became profitable was to devalue the Rand ,that is indisputable. The high return is just a symptom of the high risk involved ,just as a high interest rate on a bond is indicative of high risk.
The other risk is political ,just look at Zimbabwe and thier Racist Dictator. Don?t expect U.S Liberals to Champion the cause of anti Racist factions in this case. The government kicked out the White farmers just because they were white without a peep from the U.S..They used to export food ,now they will face Famine very shortly. The Zimbabwe government causes the Famine and what does the U.S. government do ?Why we send them food of coarse!.
I contend you can?t ignore the risk to S.Africa with this going on next door ,Famine has a way of becoming everybodys problem.
I?m not trying to rain on anybodys parade about S.Africa ,but before I risk my hard earned money I tend to look at both sides like a jury trial. Make the case for ,then make the case against ,then like a juror try to determine the truth. IMHO
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