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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/23/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (9/23/01; 23:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62249)
Stocks may see more losses ahead
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B897BE05C%2D4348%2D4A8C%2DA519%2DAC697C692ABF%7D&siteid=mktw

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Investors may arrive at their desks Monday with little impetus to push stocks higher amid mounting expectations for more job loss, profit warnings and a shrinking economy in the third and fourth quarters. Concern that the terrorist attacks on America may have tipped the world's largest economy into recession is likely to keep many investors on the sidelines as they try to assess the depth and duration of the slowdown. "We believe the recession actually began in May or June, and now the wild card is how much distortion to third- and fourth-quarter growth has been caused by the attack," said Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets. "The fallout from the attacks will overstate the recession in the third quarter and understate it in the fourth quarter."

Black Blade: No argument here. We have likely been in Recession for at least the last 2 quarters. No relief in sight.

Gandalf the White (9/23/01; 22:09:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62248)
MAD COW !!
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/FR/TNKS/evening.htm
Saturday, September 22, 2001 5:44 p.m. (JST)
Japan's First Mad Cow Disease Case Confirmed
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Agriculture Ministry confirmed early Saturday that a cow in Chiba Prefecture suspected of having mad cow disease was indeed infected, representing the first incidence of the illness in Japan.
===
SOOOOO, What do you think that price of the hand massaged beef in Japan will be now ? one kilo Beef = one ounce Au ?
<;-)

Black Blade (9/23/01; 21:08:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62247)
Futures Up, USD Up, Petroleum and Gold Down
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

Actually the Market futures are flat (about even with "fair value"}, The USD is up sharply reflecting the strong dollar policy that cripples US corporations - especially multinationals and others that hope to dig themselves out of the hole with US exports. Petroleum prices are down on expectations that War will not affect the ME, in spite of OPEC determination to hold the line on oil production. PMs are not very active (yet). We have to wait to see how European and US markets react tomorrow. The so-called "War Premium" may never materialize as the US is not likely to take any meaningful action in retaliation for the terrorist attacks.

BR549 (09/23/01; 21:02:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62246)
"Jihad doesn't mean aggression in Islam, it means defending one's soul, land and nation against those who attack them," said Grand Sheik of Al-Azhar Mohammed Sayed Tantawi, considered by many to be the Sunni Muslim world's highest religious authority.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,34940,00.html
CAIRO, Egypt � Osama bin Laden's campaign against America doesn't fit Islam's definition of jihad, or holy war, a top Egyptian cleric said Sunday, adding that the alleged terror mastermind "doesn't represent Islam."

"Bin Laden expresses his personal point of view [of jihad] � he doesn't represent Islam," Tantawi added.

Black Blade (09/23/01; 21:00:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62245)
Asian Markets In The Red - Again
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

"Interesting" start to the trading week as Asian Markets start off on the downside.

Black Blade (9/23/01; 20:55:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 62244)
RE: auspec

The last time that I met Harry Bingham in 1999 (Van Eck Investments), he was quite bullish on Gold then. I remember we were comparing notes on the pros and cons of Getchell Gold. I was quite impressed with him. I did think that he was overly optimistic as even then he was projecting $400.00/oz by the end of the year. Now more and more it appears that much more was going on behind the scenes to suppress the Gold price. I remember when I had met John Wilson, former CEO of Placer Dome Gold (PDG), he apparently came to that conclusion. He said later that he suspected that "malign forces" were at work to cap the POG. I had no opinion at thyat time except that I thought that investment dollars were fleeing the industry due to the BRE-X fraud a couple of years earlier. Now my thoughts are that I don't know if POG manipulation can be conclusively proved, but "where there's smoke - there's probably fire." Not much surprises me anymore. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Netking (9/23/01; 20:41:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 62243)
Opening salvo . . .
http://www.dailytelegraph.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,2919473%5E701,00.html
Snippet:
BRITISH SAS troops have fought a gun battle in Afghanistan with Taliban fighters, marking the first confrontation in the war against terrorism . . .
------------------------------------------------------------
It looks as though Iraq may again be the wild card in the days ahead as military planners wrestle & debate with each other and Mr Powell for Iraq to be target no. 2. Meanwhile the Arab collective infers "touch Iraq & you touch us all" . . . interesting weeks ahead.
- Netking

auspec (9/23/01; 19:54:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62242)
cb{too}
I owe you a post friend, as the one just written crashed with my computer. The hour is not permitting a rewrite. I will say, from your post #62209 that "collateral damage" is the key phrase from the WTC disaster. WE are still trying to figure out what else went down with the towers and THEY are still in process of figuring out what else they can blame on the act. Panic? All the PPT can do in the long run is insure an 'orderly panic'. Bunch of {oxy}morons!
Regards to all those of position and influence that are on the side of freedom and honest markets!
a

BR549 (9/23/01; 19:52:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 62241)
The whole purpose of repurchases supposedly has to do with the basics that excess treasury cash is better spent on the corporations own stock rather than acquiring another corporation, buying technology, investing in R&D, or any other spending of excess cash such as stockholder dividends and other malarky
@KS----I was disappointed that I didn't hear from you earlier. I did get an email with your questions encouraging a response about repurchases/insider trading/stock buybacks posted earlier by me:

KS-Since you asked me for a response: Your post is very interesting. It brings up many questions. Could you provide answers to the following questions?
1)Do you have a link or documentation that would provide your readers solid facts regarding corporate Buyback rules both, before and after suspension.
BR-Yes, http://www.sec.gov/news/headlines/addedrelief.htm on renewal of insider trading suspension of rules.

KS-2)Can you give a specific example of a majority stockholder and or insider who has sold a portion of their shares, # of shares owned (percentage of ownership) before and after, market price per share and premium paid on the stock buyback, anything at all in hard facts to support would help
BR-No, no such specific examples since 911 are not available which is why SEC insider rules as such, are a joke. Do you feel from common sense, that rules that were put in place by the SEC earlier in regard to the abuse of insider trading has "never" been a problem?

KS-3)If a stock buyback announcement is limited to a certain number of shares, and all shareholders do not opt to sell their full allotment to the company, how are the excess unsold shares allocated, it at all, to shareholders who would desire to sell more of their shares
BR-Since the SEC has relaxed the rules, I assume that it is on a first come first serve basis. But the relaxation of the SEC rules means that anything goes. Ordinarily the insiders would have to file reports as to their knowledge and percentages of ownership. (see above link)

KS-1)In order for a specific stockholder to own a greater percentage of the company after execution of the buyback, the specific stockholder would, of necessity, have to sell less shares in percentage of the buyback than total shares bought back by the company as a percentage of total of outstanding shares. It goes without saying that, if the company offers to purchase a certain percentage of outstanding shares and the insider (assuming it is allowed) sells a greater percentage of personally owned shares in proportion to the percentage of shares vs. outstanding shares bought back by the company, then the insider will own a smaller, not a greater percentage of the company as you have postulated
BR-Respectfully, you missed the point here. Say an inside investor owns x percentage of the outstanding shares but need cash. Via insider buybacks he can liquidate a percentage of his equity at a higher buyback amount than the market rates because of the relaxed rules will bring. Then have his remaining percentage have a greater percentage of shares outstanding ratio to assets because of a reduced number of shares outstanding, i.e., insiders total percentage of shares outstanding divided by corporations net worth is the same after buybacks, then his shares outstanding are worth more per share than before because there are less shares outstanding because of buybacks. His value will be taxed at capital gains rates (or losses) rather than as dividends which are taxed at ordinary income rates. If he liquidates 100% of his shares outstanding, then you are correct.

KS-"2)A change in EPS would be a total unknown, a fact whose certainty can only be established by historical events and could go either way depending upon various factors, among them, future interest expense accrued against the debt incurred to fund the company's stock buyback program. Even if the buyback is funded with existing cash and or cash equivalents of the company, then the probability is that earnings will not be relatively constant, as the company has divested itself of opportunities to earn income from those assets that can no longer be deployed. One cannot realistically give credence to your hypothetical -- "If earnings remain relatively constant".
BR-I agree, but in order to compare apples to apples, some things must remain constant and for the purposes of comparing insider results EPS must remain constant in order to compare relative results. If not, then how would you compare insider vs. non-insider relaxed rules trading results? i.e., how else would you do it if EPS is in a constant state of change (which I agree is what happens in the real world)?

Ks_3)ROA, a great measurement of management performance, by virtue of its purity, does not take debt and equity relationships into consideration. If the buyback corporation borrows the cash to fund the buyback and disburses those funds for that purpose, the net result is a simple increase in debt to equity ratio. The creditor, possibly the Federal Reserve, through the banks controlled by it, now has claim to more of the assets of the corporation and the stockholders' claims are diminished thereby. The soundness of the company's financial condition as a result of a buyback funded by new debt deteriorates, no question about it.
BR-I mostly agree but you do understand that if everything else remains constant then the Return on Assets looks better for the balance sheet and makes the corporation look better for long term prospects for future performance. I am not sure that the Fed has anything to do with this with the exception of the borrowing of cash to fund the buybacks, i.e., most buybacks have to do with trading of corporation cash for stock, not borrowing. The whole purpose of repurchases supposedly has to do with the basics that excess treasury cash is better spent on the corporations own stock rather than acquiring another corporation, buying technology, investing in R&D, or any other spending of excess cash such as stockholder dividends. If the corporation borrows money to finance buybacks, IMHO this is even more evidence of how corporate insiders are saving their own butts.

BR "The first five days of this ingenious plan has resulted in the single largest decline in prices in the history of the U.S. (including the depression)"
KS-"��is a fallacious one. The fallacy is a common one � Post hoc ergo propter hoc (after that therefore caused by that). He would submit that the fact that the "ingenious plan" preceded the "the single largest decline in the history of the U.S.", does not indicate that the "ingenuous plan" was the cause of "the single largest decline in the history of the U.S.". The buybacks were likely executed as a result of coercion, IMO.
BR-I would agree except why extend the buyback until 9/28 when there are no positive results except insiders being able to liquidate their stocks at a higher rate than market value. If the same decline happens this week, does the SEC extend it again?

KS- In my post the other day, as the bookkeeper of the company executing a buyback, if one were to read between the lines, one would surmise that the bookkeeper was communicating with tongue in cheek, and was really questioning the sanity of the boss. Such an action, borrowing cash to buy back stock, is a form of partial liquidation and makes sense only if some sort of outside Mafioso threat is bought to bear. In this case the partial liquidation is counter to the profit motive of the company and has as its purpose long-term damage to the financial position of the company rather than being a "stop the bleeding" attempt to save the company. The company is now much more vulnerable to foreclosure in a depressive downturn in the economy which always entails a precipitous drop in the market value of the companies collateral pledged against its outstanding debt. The result is an erosion of equity and the goal is liquidation through foreclosure, IMO.
BR-Yes

Regards,

BR549

auspec (9/23/01; 19:45:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62240)
Bill Murphy/Midas Today
Alert
This is an ALERT:

Two of the most bearish gold analysts over the past many years have now turned VERY BULLISH.

*Andy Smith of Mitsui told long time gold vet and Caf� contributor, Harry Bingham, that he thinks gold could go straight to $400 per ounce.

*John Reade of UBS Warburg Paine Webber told Paine Webber's stock brokerage executives on Friday that he has turned quite bullish. Interestingly enough, that does not come through in his daily bullion market commentary.

I met both John and Andy when Reg Howe and I went to the FT Gold Conference in Paris June of last year. Nice enough chaps, even if they have been on the wrong side of table as far as GATA is concerned.

There is no doubt in my mind that both fellows were fully aware of the gold games being played by The Gold Cartel. The fact that they are now so bullish ought to tell us something. Eh?

That does not mean that gold will soar sky high right away. It SHOULD, but The Gold Cartel is desperate beyond comprehension due to a myriad of problems. For years I have warned of this possibility in CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH. The cabal will do whatever they can to hold down the price of gold as long as they can. All that means (if the stay at it) is more opportunity for us to buy more and more gold and the right gold shares at cheap prices. END

Comment: GATA, the epicenter of the gold world!

Max Rabbitz (9/23/01; 19:26:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62239)
Horatio and Norstradamus
I don't want to be too disrespectful of those who claim to be prophets but I would ask the references of your Nostradamus post. Without a Chapter (Century) and verse I would assume it is just another of the made up verses that have become so common this last year. I will give Nostradamus this........ at least he tried to make prophecies and didn't just go out and murder his critics.

auspec (9/23/01; 19:24:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62238)
Old Yeller #62235
Yes, the British/US connection is a marvel to watch. I still say London is the epicenter of world finance. All of these elitist organizations CBs, IMF, etc. are joined at the hip {backside} and know full well what is going on in the gold manipulation, whether they are active participants or not. They operate in a world we know little about unless we expend much effort to peer behind the curtain. For sure one can trust these International MFs to do the right thing, yes? The IMF is the US$ and the US$ is the IMF!
You'll have to keep your dollars to my doughnuts, no wager man. I love odds, but not these odds.
Kind Regards

uponroof (9/23/01; 18:34:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62237)
Belgian
Now you're cooking! I like your last argument on why POG will not be fixed much more than the first. I'm starting to breath easy again as I begin to admit gold is bigger than it's would be masters. Hope you're right! BTW- POG up a buck in Oz, 30 minutes before Asia opens.

auspec (9/23/01; 18:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62236)
Sir Belgian
Questions as to the deepness of the roots of the Oligarchy, eh? It does cause sleepness nights, but much clarity arrives over the years during these times. You are most correct that dollar hegemony will not be voluntarily given up, but what will happen upon its collapse? The worldwide coordination and interlocking of CBs tells much of the story, your big 3 of Japan/US/Europe are already a related "feudal/mercantilist system" as I was recently reminded by the esteemed journeyman from CSpace. Russia is making EU noises and the ME is operating nicely in current financial system {at least the Royal Rulers are}.
Dollar colonization is valuable to the PE, and when it gives away there will be no emancipation, mere change of 'currency' use. If it works on the dollar colonization scale just think how much better it would work on a global scale!
Has the EU come to you with expectation or surprise? How deep do the various British ties still extend around the globe? We have discussed the S.A. connections several times. I see all the efforts towards NWO coming, but I also see many obstacles as do you. Let's watch and wait with vigilance, just in case, shall we??
This is no mere truffle {smile}!
Regards,
a

Old Yeller (9/23/01; 17:49:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 62235)
auspec;#62220

Interesting thoughts on the NWO,especially on the historical ties of the British Empire.Blair's blantantly obvious and seemingly stage-managed appearance at Bush's speech certainly caught my attention.Your intriguing mention of the IMF gold is a long forgotten issue,did it(the issue),go away in the fashion we were led to believe? Remember,it was Blair and Clinton who were the impetus for this laughable debt relief solution for the HIPCs

Given what we know of the Clinton administration's affinity for planned solutions;no matter what the obstacles may be, this statement stands out;

"Look at the coalition that stopped the sale of IMF gold,who would have thunk it?They actually only had their way in the US Congress,as I doubt very seriously that the IMF gold has remained intact.Why would they stop there,with all the other lies ,deceit and obfusication occuring.Not likely"

Or as the Brits so succinctly put it;

"not bloody likely"

Dollars to doughnuts the IMF gold has been mobilized in some way to maintain the charade of the dollar's enduring strength.Note that since Sept.11,the USDX has not really fallen much at all.The concerted efforts of the Japanese to depreciate the yen has helped as well as the swoon of the $Aussie.But there is something else there,as well.Methinks the IMF stash probably has a "deep storage" label affixed to it,not unlike another stash under the auspices of the masters of the universe.,

White Hills (9/23/01; 17:42:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62234)
I May throwup!
Las Vegas Review Journal, A article by William Drozdiak in the Washington Post, BRUSSELS- "The president of Germany's central bank said Saturday there was mounting evidence that people connected to the attacks in New York and Washington sought to profit from the tragedy by engaging in "terrorism" insider trading" on European stoc k and commodity markets." Further on in the article it finally comes to Gold. " Besides massive short selling of airline and insurance stocks, Welteke said "there was a fundamentally inexplicable rise" in world oil prices just before the attacks that suggest certain groups or people were buying oil contracts that were then sold for a much higher price." He goes on and this is the part I like, " German researchers also detected movements in gold markets "which need explaining" Maybe he should call GATA as I am sure they could explain it to him. White Hills

Horatio (9/23/01; 17:27:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62233)
The House of Paper
Nostradamus:

En Fran�ais:

Un Jour sans avertissement,
Un moment quand personne ne pr�voit,
La vague extraordinaire appara"tra,
o� les �v�nements accablent les march�s financiers

Puis, la maison du papier tombera,
Nos institutions financiers recevront l'essai supr�me,
Quand le courage de l'humanit� est test�,
Quand la confiance en nos �tablissements sera remise en question

In English:

One day without warning,
One moment when nobody expects,
The rogue wave appears,
When events overpower the financial markets

Then, the house of paper falls,
Financial institutions receive the supreme test,
When the mettle of man is tested,
When the faith in our establishments is called in question

Tannehill (9/23/01; 16:56:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62232)
Imagine that...
Well it seems we all lost $1.4 trillion dollars last week. Someone send out the scouts to look for it.

Just imagine if only 5% of that was gold. Let's see $1.4 trillion times .5% equals $0.07 trillion, (chicken feed?)
How much is $0.07 trillion in tonnes? (Let's not go there)

That's all from Tannehill

BR549 (9/23/01; 16:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62231)
Patriotic stock trading---

It is said by some that I am a little too patriotic. OK, a lot say I am a lot too patriotic, but not in this case.

Just who are these patriots that are buying stocks? Or recommending that it is patriotic to buy stocks? Is it the large sellers of blocks of stocks such as the owners of Disney who found a market at $15/share when the market was at $16+/share. Is it patriotic for the brokerage firm who took commissions for the sale of this stock to keep it for profits? Is it the hedge funds that have sold stocks short and are now buying stock to cover their positions and lock in their profits? Is it the NY State Pension Fund Treasurer from NY State who patriotically invested "substantial" amount of workers retirement funds on the day that the market opened after 911 and was rewarded with the single largest weekly drop in market history? Are those pension fund people who must now postpone their retirement because they cannot live on their retirement accumulations because they are now patriots? Are the patriots the mutual funds who have to liquidate to cover redemptions? Are the patriots fat cats like Rush Limbaugh who are stuck in a free fall and looking for a buyer at any price or even better hoping that the prices will increase so they can redeem at an even higher price? Are the true patriots the insiders selling their stocks for patriotic repurchases with the cooperation of the SEC? Insider rules were put in for good reasons and the suspension of these same rules does not benefit anyone except insiders.

No, the true patriots are the individual investor's with the disappearing 401K's that ride the market to the bottom because they are buying this "Patriotic BS" by the market manipulators. Is it any less patriotic to sell your position at DJ $10K or now and buy it back at the bottom (or better yet, forget about equities and accumulate physical gold)? The patriotism only has to do with not selling unless you are a patriotic stock market professional looking for suckers.

So much for those who say that I am too patriotic.

BR549

Black Blade (9/23/01; 16:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 62230)
Gloomy times
http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR20010923670.4_906f0003a9d872e8

Snippit:

OIL prices fell again yesterday as economic gloom and fears of a drastic fall-off in commercial air travel weighed on the markets. Traders said that concerns that economic recession would depress demand outweighed fears that military retaliation would disrupt oil supplies.

Black Blade: OPEC is likely to keep a lid on production and now Saudi is reneging on agreements made to the US. Add to that Iraq is a likely target for more retaliation for their support of the Taliban and Osama. Now there are reports that the Saudi and Kuwaiti Royals may be ripe for a political coup for their support of the "infidels." Petroleum prices could very well rise sharply in the next few weeks or months. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade (9/23/01; 15:57:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 62229)
The oil sector: Fears loom of Seventies gloom
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=95469

Snippit:

Of all commodities, oil is the most volatile even at the best of times. A stray word from one of the majors, or a rumour concerning Opec outputs, and the price of crude will be sent through a violent series of peaks and troughs. The New York attacks, with their double focus of the Middle East and the global economy, are creating yet another frenzied episode in the troubled market for crude. In the immediate aftermath of the events, oil soared, a knee-jerk reaction to fears that a war in the Middle East could squeeze supply. In the following days, the decline was even more dramatic. As fears of a global recession took hold, traders adopted the view that demand for oil and its by-products would slump. High on the list was a massive downturn in the demand for commercial jet fuel. But with crude back down at $26 (�17.70) from its peak of around $29 per barrel, the big question is what happens next. The global oils team at Merrill Lynch believes that the situation throughout the world now closely resembles that of the oil shock-littered Seventies, with three major areas of similarity.

Black Blade: As I have said. It's the 1970's all over again. Go for the Gold and very selective investments.

Black Blade (9/23/01; 15:40:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 62228)
World Trade Center's other victims - the jobless
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010923/n21277772_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - It was not only high finance that was shattered in the World Trade Center attacks. Many low-paid workers also lost their jobs in the economic ripples from the assault on a symbol of American capitalism. Thousands of workers -- many of them immigrants with jobs as waitresses, busboys or toilet cleaners -- are now unemployed as a result of the hijacked planes smashing into the World Trade Center and destroying it on Sept. 11.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bags O' Bones" are cast upon the ever-growing "Bone Pile." It won't get any better anytime soon. The Global Economy is toast. Man the "Golden Lifeboats" are the order of the day.

Belgian (9/23/01; 15:37:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 62227)
@ Auspec @ Invisible @ Uponroof
Auspec : One world, one currency ? NWO ?
Intuition (handy h�) tells me it is much too early for such an experiment. Global uniformization seems a very old american (coca cola) dream to me. I already had a sleepless night on this with the previous KarenSue scope/focus, on it.
The big three (US/Europ/Japan) to five (M.E./Russia) have too big egos to make this happen. The present global economy runs on a large dosis of dollar-colonization. And it must be quite clear now, that the US total supremacy, is highly vulnarable. Many differences on this globe are too difficult to bridge. Honestly, I don't see, how such a thing could happen, my good friend ? With my present knowledge well understood. :-)

Invisible : The monetary aspect of declining interest is an indication that the currency (money-?) that carries that IR, is strengthening and is considered to keep its purchasing power ! That's the theory under normal circumstances. Just elaborate this yourself if tomorrow, I show up and ask me to borrow me part of your fortune ! :-)
Normally, IRs have partial influence on both aspects : monetary and economical. Today, most of the accent is laid on the monetary aspect of the IRs. The currencies ($) must remain strong, low POG must support this purpose and the gambling positions must be protected.

We are witnessing this obscene IR-management for every other purpose but the economical fundamentals.
When you have job-certainty, you will start building a house and take credit at whatever IR. Zero IR and no business-profits or job-security, prospects, can change your descission for taking credit.

For reason of being tired, allow me to come directly to the conclusion without a long tirade on the (stubbornly) wrong perceptions on IRs.

Today's setting of IRs, are nothing more than an absolute crisis-management, indicating full desperation about the deep cancering rot ! Most americans have nothing to save and will be happy to be able to serve all their debts.
European individuals have massive savings and can bridge difficult times more easely (comfortably). Debt slow down in the US will be the reason for economic contraction and default, instantly and without any lagtime due to reserves (savings). US = credit-cards >< Europ = bank-cards !
IRs are only a tool to finetune and not a drastic medicament for the economy ! Later more on it.

Uponroof : A POG fixing at 275$, will be done for a very, very fundamental reason ! It will be an exclusively US decission ! Gold will be trade outside the US in a panic buying mode due to this very special reason : High Risks on $-value or Major default(s). A fixing commandement is a pro forma confiscation of Gold. The present strong hand/hart holders of the physical are not going to sell at 275$ or any other fixed price. They will immediately suspect why the fixing is done. And the fixing will immediately be blowed up with targeted cornering of the short positions.
The only effect of such a fixing would probably cause some anxiety with small holders. And if the dollar starts to decline and POG remains fixed at 275$...are you going to sell your physical at that price ?

Black Blade (9/23/01; 15:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62226)
Analysts Foresee Tumult for Fund Industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010923/business_financial_fund_industry_dc_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A number of businesses have watched their prospects go from bad to worse after last week's attacks on the United States, and the mutual fund industry is no exception. ``We're close to a worst-case scenario right now, and it's probably going to stay that way for a long time,'' said Jeff Hopson, an industry analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons. Fund firms, already struggling amid a downturn in the stock market, now must brace for even uglier times ahead. Analysts who track fund companies are slashing their profit forecasts for the rest of the year as well as for 2002 and anticipating further cuts in jobs and expenses.

Black Blade: I cleared out a remaining position in Janus Mercury Fund before the current market madness. The reps used to ask if you were happy with the fund and why you were redeeming shares. Now they just process the order - one can hear the resignation in their voices. A Very "GRIM" time ahead for the Funds, Brokerages, and the Pied Pipers.

Black Blade (9/23/01; 15:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62225)
Modest Patriotic Rally Seen on Wall St.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010923/business_markets_stocks_dc_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street may see a modest patriotic rally this week as long-term optimists step in to scoop up bargains after ferocious U.S. attack-related selling forced the blue-chip index to notch its biggest weekly loss since the Great Depression.

Black Blade: Hope springs eternal. We have heard this story before. Even during the Depression the market see-sawed downward. There is nothing positive in the market as consumer confidence is nonexistent, earnings warnings are a constant, and unemployment grows exponentially. Luckily I got out with nice profits and went into Gold, Silver, Utes, and Energy while others were "staying the course" "buying the dips" "looking for a bottom," or trying to "catch falling knives." Many are absolutely shameless in promoting "Patriotism" for a profit or to sucker misguided na�ve investors. I am content to ride out the storm in a "Golden Lifeboat."

BR549 (9/23/01; 15:00:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 62224)
Yankee Stadium
Best speech of the week--Muslim Chaplain of the NYPD at Yankee stadium Prayer gathering for the victims explaining the difference between murdering criminals of 911 and true believers in Islam.

For those with a TV, well worth the watch. I'm just not up for the NFL yet. Maybe next week.

apollo's golden chariot (9/23/01; 14:29:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 62223)
(No Subject)
During World War II the Abwehr, the intelligence service in Germany, operated the Brandenberg Division which specialized in sabotage, commando operations and spying. Its operatives even resorted to wearing uniforms of their enemies to sow confusion among their adversaries. Several such "Werewolves" were executed by the US Army in 1945. The unit also made use of foreign nationals as spies and saboteurs. On the Eastern front this often took the form of dissident Ukranians who hated the Communist Party.

Are we witnessing a sort of modern day Brandenberg Division through the activities of terrrorists cells that have recently heinously attached New York and Washington, DC? Instead of Ukranians, disaffected Middle Easterners seem to be the throw away people of choice.

Unhappy with the US monetary hegemony which protected them from the onslaught of the Communist bear through the 1990s, now leading political elements on the continent are eager to purge the dollar and advance the cause of the Euro. On one level this is achieved by the criticisms of US finances put forth by Another and FAO on this board and others on other boards. Not satisfied that mere information will cause wholesale dollar abandonment, the process is helped along by terror attacks on financial and governmental centers. But this ultimately will prove to have been a fatal mistake. It will foster an international realignment and actions which in the long run will be very much to Euroland's disadvantage.

Does any one believe that a German monetary hegemony will be superior to an American one?

Netking (9/23/01; 13:40:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62222)
Did Israelis evacuate towers?
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24616
There's been many rumours pertaining to reports that 4,000 Israelis failed to show up for work at the World Trade Center. These stories were not true but rather terrorist propaganda. The story it seems has been carried by Al-Manara Television, which belongs to Hezbollah, Jordan's Al Watan and Pakistani Publications. The fact is, 130 Israelis were killed in the World Trade Center attack along with those from many, many nations. And there are many more Israelis that are missing and presumed dead. The implication being carried by the Arab newspapers is that the Jews were really behind the bombing. There will always be people who want to believe the Jews did it. It is unlikely those who have already made up their minds will want to be confused by facts(refer above link) . . .

** An example of some of the original reports that seemed to have started in Jordan's Al Watan newspaper and been spread by Pakistani publications, including Jangas (refer below):
http://www.paknews.com/main.php?id=3&date1=2001-09-19
------------------------------------------------------------
Sir Belgian, good comments from you Sir
- Netking

BR549 (9/23/01; 12:33:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 62221)
From Patriotism to Panic ...
CoBra(too) (msg#: 62209)

The whole concept of the idea to buy equities (or at least to not sell) is s shill game for the benefit of the professionals. The ample proof, as predicted earlier on this forum, is the extension of the SEC rules benefiting the insiders-" The two rules are Securities Act Rule
144(e), which governs how many shares of stock a corporate
insider can sell in the open market, and Securities Exchange Act Rule 10b5-1, which allows people to trade securities even when they may have nonpublic information. Rule 144(e) requires insiders to calculate the average weekly reported volume of trading. The release allows insiders to ignore the week of September 11 in making that calculation. The release also gives insiders greater leeway concerning written plans to purchase or sell securities. This relief extends through September 28, 2001."

I agree with you that when the non-professionals look at the state of their 401K's, mutual funds, etc. there will now be mass liquidation from those who have had enough, causing the ultimate crash. If one looks at the last great SM crash, there were a series of large percentage declines that were record setting until broken last week. There is no longer a flight to safety in any kind of paper�---bonds that dwarf the SM, stocks, or even Treasury Bills. Passbook interest produce rates of return are a joke. Significant rates of return for any kind of capital are over until the world's corporations begin producing real earnings and non-paper profits once again. The great paper fallacy of all will be the crash of derivatives and their accompanying bankster sponsors such as JPM/C.

The supply chain has broken down periodically because of interruptions in the transportation sector and the result has been the shutting down of assembly lines and the additional layoffs of hundreds of thousands of workers. Now that the U.S. has nationalized the airline sector via investing billions and taking back stock options, preparing to invest in the insurance sector, and for years has propped up the banking sector high risk investment mistakes, the only flight to quality left is in manipulated precious metals which now has turned into a bet on the demise of the dollar and the rise of hyperinflation. I disagree with the concept by some that any investment in equities now is patriotic or anything short of stupid for us non-professionals. It is not business as normal-it is self-preservation time.

Cb2-" The real collateral damage will be the real and significant loss of life, liberty and personal property for any and all of us." I agree. The economy of the world is spiraling down and its recovery will possibly take years. I am afraid that the "so called good life" is over for a while. Unfortunately the backing of this "good life" was an unreal credit bubble encouraging living beyond their means for debt ridden gluttonous consumers. The world needs to learn to appreciate what is had first then rebuild with real productivity.

Warmest Regards,

BR549

auspec (09/23/01; 12:10:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62220)
Obstacles to NWO
Obstacles to NWO?

I'm quite often on the trail of seeking 'commonality' and thus had a few thoughts pop up this day in regards to the various forces/entities that stand in the way of the NWO. Or, put another way, who are the natural enemies of NWO? I would appreciate any discussion or input from others.
The US sovereignty and its Constitution are prime examples, and they have been severely compromised much of the last century. None of us truly know how{e} fully intact our 'God given' and inalienable right still are. Can you pronounce FEMA or martial law a little more distinctly than last month? Illegal {not legal!} immigration and the lack of border 'defense' is playing an ongoing role in breaking down what is left of our founding Fathers' ideals. Do not make the mistake of believing this is simply more typical Govt ineptness! What other countries would likely fall in this same category, as not being easily assimilable?
Another example of obstacles to PE plans are various religious groups, imho. I include the Christian Right in this category {not necessarily what is often referred to as 'cultural' Christians} as well, but hope not to have to delve into this in any more depth here. I am also going to include the Islamic countries/People on this list of objectors to NWO, and would very much appreciate insight from anyone present who has insight into the validity of this ides.
As far as countries are concerned China always seems to be a 'wildcard', enigmatic and isolationist by nature. China will NOT be bullied into NWO, but I still always wonder what some of their remaining ties might be to the greatly diminished 'British Empire'. Oh, you thought the British Empire was just a thing of the past? How{e} is this idea seen from the eyes of our many non-American posters, Canadian, Belgians, Austrians, Mexicans, Australians and the many others?
A commonly called 'rogue nation, which I will refer to as Libya for purposes of example only, will always be present, but unlike China, there are many tools available in 'obedience school' to minimize the effects of these countries. They will not stop the evolution of NWO, but will remain a constant thorn.
How{e} about all the individuals that still know right from wrong? Most everyone that participates in these 'hard money' sites see the world through anti-NWO eyes. I say 'most' because it would be quite naive to think there are no 'plants' {weeds} among us. Thanks for and to the Bill Murphys, David Guyatts, Catherine Austine Fitts, Reg Howes, and the MULTITUDES of free thinkers that are not afraid to speak their mind or spend their lives' energies {or their lives themselves} advocating what they see as good, or fighting what they see as 'evil'. Mankind at its best through my eyes, doing the work one is called to do. How{e} about all the newsletter writers that are apart from mainstream media/news, bless them! PLUS those that provide these wonderful sites!
What else stands in the way of NWO and one world currency? Duh, maybe honest money, gold and silver, the American citizens' birthright. NWO can certainly {ab}use these metals for their purposes, but there can be little debate as to this coming 'fiat gold/silver's' legitimacy, the word bastard comes to mind.
What's the point of this mental exercise? Is an enemy of my enemy always my friend? This is quite a coalition, a true rogues' gallery, if you will. Pretty hilarious also if you think about it much. On certain issues I will take my friends where I find them. Look at the coalition that stopped the sell of IMF gold, who would have thunk it? They actually only had their way in the US Congress, as I doubt very seriously that IMF gold has remained intact. Why would they stop there with all the other lies, deceits and obfuscations occurring? Not likely.
Who else is in this 'coalition'? Do you think the list includes an entity incorrectly? When you started investing/studying/gold and silver did you have the vaguest idea how[E} profoundly it would alter your world, and how{e} significant it really is? Are you part of this coalition? Is there more you called to do? Do you even believe or care about NWO?
Thank you for considering these thoughts, both of you that got this far along.
Steadfastly,
auspec

uponroof (9/23/01; 11:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 62219)
Invisible Hand/Belgian/Galearis/Old Yeller
The Invisible Hand...Much thanks for that detailed and researched answer.

Interesting that you bring up the court case. I too was considering from that perspective. Howe is arguing that point but from another perspective. One of hidden agendas and ulterior motives. Nothing 'official' about it. Purely hidden and stealth.

The Howe court case and possible future 'official' (out in the open) fixing of POG are two separate issues IMHO. Howe and GATA are aledging collusion for the most part under conditions before 911. Their recent addendum to the complaint (dated 9/18) adds new evidence including the FED's foreign earmarked gold, Poor ESF accounting practices, SDR declines, Gold derivatives, Gold swaps, Interest rate corolations Questionable COMEX and BIS activity. All powerful issues backed with documented evidence of less than honest gummint intentions. All are also from the 'old world' perspective as the research was done before the disaster, despite the 9/18 filing date.

It's now time to pin down whether a 'crisis' justifys manipulation, and what exactly qualifys as a 'crisis'.

We have just had widely admitted intervention in various markets to protect them from failure. Why not use this to our advantage? Why not file a third affidavit seeking to show this blatant intervention in an effort to prove the potential of same in the gold market?

This will force the hand of the gummint to use 911 for official POG fixing if they intend to. If they do not, this now open door will be shut to all future arguments.

Sorry, I just don't trust them. Let's get them on record regarding this prolific 911 free for all and their specific position regarding emergency gold market intervention.

The quotes from George Reisman are also much appreciated. I see his logic. However, it seems he is describing normal market conditions over unrestricted time frames. We have anything but that now. There is not enough time, IMHO, to allow for an "end to the government's arbitrary increase in the quantity of money" to provide the solution. They will not be slowing down the printing presses anytime soon.

JPMChase's clock continues to tick down. Events that will cause POG to rise above 300 are just around the corner and unavoidable. Something will have to give.......POG or.... JPMChase>Japan>Banking Industry>numerous institutions>all dollar linked currencies>etc etc.

In any event thanks much for the rebutt. I see your logic and can only hope 'the Administration' does also.

As for your answer to Belgian regarding "Roland Leuschel of Belgium BBL bank who was arguing on Saturday September 15 that the US economy will collapse as soon as the US consumer starts saving again..." Could Mr Leuschel be referring to a falling Consumer Confidence in which saving succeeds spending? I too have heard that consumers will be slow to spend in the coming months accelerating the crash of the economy.
**********

The Belgian- Many thanks for your kind words. I'm not sure that any mention about gold will result in a massive run. Especially if that 'mention' includes an order of set value at 275. Buying into gold at that point would be a bet against the US gummint. The onus of gold would expand to unlawful exchange if sold above 275. Fixing POG would give them time to diffuse banking timebombs.

You also said.....

"Fixing POG is the Gold-standard revisited. This would prepare the way for throwing away the present debt-loaded dollar for a fresh / new piece of paper, where the infernal debt-spiral could restart at zero. All the old debtpaper will scramble for all the gold they could possibly get and make this operation impossible."

Yes, agreed...if the gummint blinks and can't back up their mandate on 275. However, if they can back it up (with worldwide support) that reloading of debt you describe is going to go the way of other commodities, not gold to save the banking interests and all the many interconnected slaves on the global chain gang.

Thanks for the rebutt and additional answer in post to Invisible. Just knowing you are confident in the adverse of my position gives me hope that I am way off track. Thanks.
*******

Galearis-A hybrid solution including new rules? Sounds like emergency born manipulation. We saw what happened on the TOCOM. Might it cost 50K margin on a gold contract in the near future? Thanks for your insight.
*******

Old Yeller-great collection of thoughts. That's what I see also. Thanks for the backup of ORO's banking saturation point...before the expansion of derivatives! We may be on the verge right now at 295. I don't know what's gonna happen but I do know it won't be pretty to all involved.

Gotta get to work. See you all tonight as POG enters Asia.

apollo's golden chariot (9/23/01; 11:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62218)
(No Subject)
It appears that Euroland, eager to see the US dollar displaced as the international monetary numeraire, did noting to monitor in any meaningful way the long term terrorist cells that have been inhabiting their territories. This failure has enabled the terrorists to introduce a very serious shock to the financial system in New York during a period of traditional seasonal money market tightness. Rather than a negotiated change in the international monetary order, the type of dollar hyperinflationary crisis that Another and FOA have long predicted in their commentaries on this board now seem more probable. The next shoe to drop is not likely to be in the form of more terrorist violence but rather in the form of more financial market turbulence.

The precise identities of individual terrorists are not as yet known. Many have assumed the identities of murdered individuals. Perhaps we will eventually discover some old connections between the terrorists and former elements of the Stasi. Who knows?

In any event there will be a need for a lot of explaining about tolerance toward terrorist organizations. Those who have sown dragons' teeth in these matters will reap woe.

USAGOLD (9/23/01; 10:35:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62217)
Back in the saddle again. . . .
After refraining from extensive comment for the past week, spending a few days in the mountains (where the aspen were in full splendor), and catching up here at the Forum and elsewhere, it seems some commentary is in order:

I think its important to pass along my belief that it is very doubtful that the gold supply will dry up anytime soon. Price rationalizes markets and before you see the supply of gold coins dry up, you will see premiums on pre-1933 skyrocket and premiums on bullion coins ratchet up slowly but consistently. This is likely the way the market will respond to the current pressures and rationalize itself to the extent that it continues to operate efficiently. We are told by our suppliers that the flow of gold coins is good under the above circumstances, and that the only hold-ups we might endure at the moment are those related to the transportation grid, not the abscence of gold. We are taking orders and having them filled without problems and we expect the market to run smoothly for the interim.

These same sort of concerns surfaced in the 1970s when gold went from $35 to $875 and we filled orders without a hitch during the whole run-up. There are always those taking profits while there are others taking positions. Historically, there have not been than many instances, short of a wartime economy (in which the infrastructure and productive capacity are actually destroyed)where price did not rationalize supply and demand. Fortunately, that's the way markets operate given even a modicum of freedom to do so. In short, there will come a point where you will pay dearly for your gold, but, even then, you will still be able to buy and take delivery. The greatest danger will not be whether or not you can buy gold, but that the price you pay may be far above today's price with an extraorinary premium attached besides. And that's the primary incentive for buying now if you are among the many who want to own it. (We were swamped with orders and inquiries over the past two weeks.)

- - - - - -

Gary Schilling, an economist who has gained some notice for predicting over a year ago that the NASDAQ would descend the depths (to roughly 1000), was quoted in the NYTimes this morning as saying:

"It's clear to me that we were already in a full-blown rescession before the attack. . .In general I would not be trying to catch falling pianos."

In other words, the attack in reality merely accelerated the speed on already determined curve. The most important history lesson, a seed that will continue to find fertile ground in only a small number of investors minds (because of the power of the press to keep small investors in this market), is that bear market can last for many years -- the average being about 15 years duration in the 20th Century. Though the NASDAQ might go to 1000, that doesn't mean it goes up from there. It could languish for years as has been the case in other bear markets. What is difficult for people who have never been in a down market before is that the bear can be vicious and implacable -- and this bear appears to be particularly angry. Last week's losses were the greatest on a percentage basis since the Great Depression.

My advice remains simple and direct. A gold diversification of 10% to 30% can go a long ways toward protecting one's assets. In a study I published in 1998, I showed how a diversification in gold in the early 1970s at the peak of the previous bull stock market would have solidified profits, and indeed kept the portfolio growing. A $100,000 portfolio diversified 30% with gold (and leaving 70% in stocks) in 1970 would have been worth $334,500 by 1979 (and that was valuing gold at 1979 average price of $300, not the peak $875 price). A portfolio that stayed in 100% in stocks would have gone from $100,000 to $111,175 over the same ten year period.

There is a time and place for everything. This is the time and place for gold.

A quote from that 1998 article which appeared in MoneyWorld magazine (when the stock market was peaking):

"In 1997, stock markets around the world were substantially overvalued by any reasonable standards -- particularly U.S. stocks. At the same time, investors from all walks of life were reportedly pouring their life savings into a market that was never meant to be a savings vehicle -- but a market for distributing speculative risk. The dangers were apparent -- in fact bigger than life. . .

"In the 1970s, those who had the wisdom to switch some of their newly-acquired wealth to gold not only locked in stock market profits, but experienced further growth when the gold price took off due to the subsequent dollar devaluation and the firestorm that followed. This very sound strategy echoes over the decades. We are in very similar straits today. . ." (End quote)

Too late?? Far from it. Those who took this advice in the late 1990s are glad they did. Gold, though it hasn't skyrocketed, has stayed in a narrow range, while stocks have plummeted. Capital for these investors has already been preserved. As a matter of fact those who took my advice of two weeks to go to cash -- either gold or money markets -- are glad they did. For those who understand the nature of long term bear markets and the importance of preserving capital at times like these, gold makes a great deal of sense. We are here to help you if you've come to the same conclusions we and many of your counter-parts already have. We'll put our many years of experience and contacts in this industry to work for you.

sourdough (9/23/01; 10:21:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 62216)
Singapore Business times editorial
September 18, 2001
EDITORIAL
The fallout on the global economy

THE reflex reaction of many investors after last week's shocking terrorist attacks on the United States was to buy gold and other precious metals, along with Swiss francs and oil.

The real trends will be revealed in the coming weeks and months, and in many areas of the global economy. There have been upward spikes in the prices of such commodities during previous emergencies - for example, at the time of the Gulf War and during the financial crises that erupted across Asia and elsewhere after 1997 - but the US dollar remained an essentially safe haven. But last week's attacks were directed against New York, home to the dollar-based global financial system, as well as against the Pentagon, the nerve centre of US military power in Washington. These traumas have left the US dollar remarkably unshaken so far, but one big question is whether this will change in the coming days and weeks.

Gold may have been a 'barbarous relic' in the eyes of John Maynard Keynes but it also happens to be the only asset which is not someone else's liability, as the World Gold Council has astutely observed. This is worth considering carefully, especially at a time when gold has become largely discredited as a portfolio asset and when central banks are seeking to demonetise (in some cases, even demonise) it by selling liberal quantities of gold to the markets. Unlike gold, the US dollar has become an asset of preference in everything from central bank reserves to small investor portfolios, but it is also a liability of the US government. Credit risk has not been something which appears to trouble most dollar holders, because the credit of the US is perceived to be 'as good as gold' - or even better - despite the fact that the US runs a massive current account deficit and may be headed back towards a budget deficit.

But with the past week's events, a new factor has entered the picture. At the very least, some central banks might want to reduce their dollar holdings, especially now that there is an alternative available in the form of the euro. There is a significant risk, too, that some of the world's major oil-producing nations could become alienated as the US military response to the terrorist attacks becomes prolonged and messy, and this triggers anger in Arab streets. In that case, their reaction could be not only to sell dollars but also to use the 'oil weapon' to show that they too have power at their disposal. It was essentially Middle East tensions and conflicts which precipitated the oil crises of the 1970s, which saw massive inflation in the price of both oil and gold. The fear is that it could happen again now.

Last week's crisis has also exposed yet another type of uncertainty - what one might call 'logistical risk' on the dollar. For all the sophistication of modern information and communications technology and New York's undoubted supremacy in such operations, the fact is that US financial markets were forced to close for several days last week, leaving other global markets to take over responsibility for the global financial system. Conceivably, London and other European centres which (as of now) are perceived to be less vulnerable to further attacks than New York may, by default, gain from this.

US government bonds

While every effort will no doubt be made to preserve stability, the biggest fear is that the threat of further terrorist attacks could precipitate a flight out of US equities and government bonds by foreign investors and also stem inward direct investment flows which have helped finance the US current account deficit. Other nations' securities could benefit but because gold or other precious metals are not the liability of any government or institution, they could revert to being assets of choice again.

Whether he likes it or not, President George W Bush has inherited the role of leader of a nation which has become the centre of the world financial, monetary and trading system as well as being 'world policeman'. On his shoulders rests the fate of the global financial system as well.

Old Yeller (9/23/01; 10:17:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 62215)
"The Enemy Within" by Ed Bugos
http://www.goldenbar.com/

"By letting it's government create the Federal Reserve System in 1913,America has fallen into a Leninist trap and cannot get out.Using the term Leninist is deliberate because some say that he showed a philosophical fondness for the tyranny of money'specifically it's institutions.This is not to be dramatic.Quite the opposite,it is the most sombre of truths."

Pogo nailed it,all those years ago.

Tannehill (9/23/01; 10:02:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 62214)
Sir Black Blade @ msg#: 62196)
You said...
Like rats leaving a burning ship, these same institutional investors who cry and wail that the American people should be "Patriotic" and "Buy Stocks" all the while they are shorting and selling shares themselves, Even Pied Pipers like Rush Limbaugh and Paul Harvey got in on the act last week asking - no begging and pleading for people to be "Patriotic" and "Buy Stocks."
************************

Yes, that is what we saw panic selling, my thoughts on this were to do nothing different. Be the rock of stability, do not let the terrorism cause you to sell or buy, follow your investment plan. Show the markets that you believed your plan before the terrorism and the same plan afterwards.
American markets the rock of stability. I am still following my plan, I did neither-did not buy, but more important did not sell.

That's all from Tannehill

Old Yeller (9/23/01; 09:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 62213)
Fixing the POG

This "act of war"perpetrated upon the US has legitimized this official yet unspoken policy,IMO.Since we are now in an apparent crisis,obviously fomented by the tough-talkin' gunslinger currently in office,rules can now be changed for the good of the country and the world.So,what in actuality was going on all along(we've been watching this together,yes)now will become an issue of maintaining the system in this time of great sacrifice. The banking crisis will be allievated in a covert or quite open fashion.The banking crisis ,of course,entails a gold delivery problem shared by other players in the great game.

For reference to the extent of the banks exposure to a rising POG,ORO wrote a commentary on it last year;10/25/00,#39916.According to ORO,the banks can only bear an increase in the POG of 17% before regulatory problems emerge.I'm quite sure this opinion did not factor in the unique circumstances we find ourselves in today.If one uses this figure as acceptable in spite of the complexity of the other issues,and using a base price in POG as $260,a 17% increase equates to POG$ 304.

Well,well,we are only about $10 away right now.Accepting the premise that the US$ is losing it's investment premium as an island of security and opportunity'suddenly the fuse wired to the gold bomb appears to getting short.The demand for physical is intensifying all over the world,meanwhile the COMEX market is also losing credibility at a rapid rate.Will this be the time the great game actually gets away from the government/banking cartel?If I was running a company like ABX,AU or PDG,I think I would be having trouble sleeping at night.

mhchuck (9/23/01; 09:18:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 62212)
Warren Buffett's Dad on "Gold and Freedom."

Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable Money

By HON. HOWARD BUFFETT
U. S. Congressman from Nebraska

Is there a connection between Human Freedom and A Gold Redeemable Money? At first glance it would seem that money belongs to the world of economics and human freedom to the political sphere.

But when you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership of gold, you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money, redeemable in gold, and the rare prize known as human liberty.

Also, when you find that Lenin declared and demonstrated that a sure way to overturn the existing social order and bring about communism was by printing press paper money, then again you are impressed with the possibility of a relationship between a gold-backed money and human freedom.

In that case then certainly you and I as Americans should know the connection. We must find it even if money is a difficult and tricky subject. I suppose that if most people were asked for their views on money the almost universal answer would be that they didn't have enough of it.

In a free country the monetary unit rests upon a fixed foundation of gold or gold and silver independent of the ruling politicians. Our dollar was that kind of money before 1933. Under that system paper currency is redeemable for a certain weight of gold, at the free option and choice of the holder of paper money.

Redemption Right Insures Stability

That redemption right gives money a large degree of stability. The owner of such gold redeemable currency has economic independence. He can move around either within or
without his country because his money holdings have accepted value anywhere.

For example, I hold here what is called a $20 gold piece. Before 1933, if you possessed paper money you could exchange it at your option for gold coin. This gold coin had a
recognizable and definite value all over the world. It does so today. In most countries of the world this gold piece, if you have enough of them, will give you much independence. But today the ownership of such gold pieces as money in this country, Russia, and all diverse other places is outlawed.

The subject of a Hitler or a Stalin is a serf by the mere fact that his money can be called in and depreciated at the whim of his rulers. That actually happened in Russia a few months ago, when the Russian people, holding cash, had to turn it in --10 old rubles and receive back one new ruble.

I hold here a small packet of this second kind of money -- printing press paper money -- technically known as fiat money because its value is arbitrarily fixed by rulers or statute. The amount of this money in numerals is very large. This little packet amounts to CNC $680,000. It cost me $5 at regular exchange rates. I understand I got clipped on the deal. I could have gotten $2 1/2 million if I had purchased in the black market. But you can readily see that this Chinese money, which is a fine grade of paper money, gives the individual who owns it no independence, because it has no redemptive value.

Under such conditions the individual citizen is deprived of freedom of movement. He is prevented from laying away purchasing power for the future. He becomes dependent upon the goodwill of the politicians for his daily bread. Unless he lives on land that will sustain him, freedom for him does not exist.

You have heard a lot of oratory on inflation from politicians in both parties. Actually that oratory and the inflation maneuvering around here are mostly sly efforts designed to lay the blame on the other party's doorstep. All our politicians regularly announce their intention to stop inflation. I believe I can show that until they move to restore your right to own gold that talk is hogwash.

Paper Systems End in Collapse

But first let me clear away a bit of underbrush. I will not take time to review the history of paper money experiments. So far as I can discover, paper money systems have always wound up with collapse and economic chaos.

Here somebody might like to interrupt and ask if we are not now on the gold standard. That is true, internationally, but not domestically. Even though there is a lot of gold buried down at Fort Knox, that gold is not subject to demand by American citizens. It could all be shipped out of this country without the people having any chance to prevent it. That is not probable in the near future, for a small trickle of gold is still coming in. But it can happen in the future. This gold is temporarily and theoretically partial security for our paper currency. But in reality it is not.

Also, currently, we are enjoying a large surplus in tax revenues, but this happy condition is only a phenomenon of postwar inflation and our global WPA. It cannot be relied upon as an accurate gauge of our financial condition. So we should disregard the current flush treasury in considering this problem

From 1930-1946 your government went into the red every year and the debt steadily mounted. Various plans have been proposed to reverse this spiral of debt.

One is that a fixed amount of tax revenue each year would go for debt reduction. Another is that Congress be prohibited by statute from appropriating more than anticipated revenues in peacetime. Still another is that 10% of the taxes be set aside each year for debt reduction.

All of these proposals look good. But they are unrealistic under our paper money system. They will not stand against postwar spending pressures. The accuracy of this conclusion has already been demonstrated.

The Budget and Paper Money

Under the streamlining Act passed by Congress in 1946, the Senate and the House were required to fix a maximum budget each year. In 1947 the Senate and the House could not
reach an agreement on this maximum budget so that the law was ignored.

On March 4 this year the House and Senate agreed on a budget of $37 1/2 billion. Appropriations already passed or on the docket will most certainly take expenditures past the $40 billion mark. The statute providing for a maximum budget has fallen by the wayside even in the first two years it has been operating and in a period of prosperity.

There is only one way that these spending pressures can be halted, and that is to restore the final decision on public spending to the producers of the nation. The producers of wealth -- taxpayers -- must regain their right to obtain gold in exchange for the fruits of their labor. This restoration would give the people the final say-so on governmental spending, and would enable wealth producers to control the issuance of paper money and bonds.

I do not ask you to accept this contention outright. But if you look at the political facts of life, I think you will agree that this action is the only genuine cure.

There is a parallel between business and politics which quickly illustrates the weakness in political control of money.

Each of you is in business to make profits. If your firm does not make profits, it goes out of business. If I were to bring a product to you and say, this item is splendid for your customers, but you would have to sell it without profit, or even at a loss that would put you out of business. -- well, I would get thrown out of your office, perhaps politely, but certainly quickly. Your business must have profits.

In politics votes have a similar vital importance to an elected official. That situation is not ideal, but it exists, probably because generally no one gives up power willingly.

Perhaps you are right now saying to yourself: "That's just What I have always thought. The politicians are thinking of votes when they ought to think about the future of the country. What we need is a Congress with some 'guts.' If we elected a Congress with intestinal fortitude, it would stop the spending all right!"

I went to Washington with exactly that hope and belief. But I have had to discard it as unrealistic. Why? Because an economy Congressman under our printing-press money system is in the position of a fireman running into a burning building with a hose that is not connected with the water plug. His courage may be commendable, but he is not hooked up right at the other end of the line. So it is now with a Congressman working for economy. There is no sustained hookup with the taxpayers to give him strength.

When the people's right to restrain public spending by demanding gold coin was taken from them, the automatic flow of strength from the grass-roots to enforce economy in
Washington was disconnected. I'll come back to this later.

In January you heard the President's message to Congress. or at least you heard about it. It made Harry Hopkins, in memory, look like Old Scrooge himself.

Truman's State of the Union message was "pie-in-the-sky" for everybody except business. These promises were to be expected under our paper currency system. Why? Because his continuance in office depends upon pleasing a majority of the pressure groups.

Before you judge him too harshly for that performance, let us speculate on his thinking. Certainly he can persuade himself that the Republicans would do the same thing if they were in power. Already he has characterized our talk of economy as "just conversation." To date we have been proving him right. Neither the President nor the Republican Congress is under real compulsion to cut Federal spending. And so neither one does so, and the people are largely helpless.

But it was not always this way.

Before 1933 the people themselves had an effective way to demand economy. Before 1933, whenever the people became disturbed over Federal spending, they could go to the banks, redeem their paper currency in gold, and wait for common sense to return to Washington.

Raids on Treasury

That happened on various occasions and conditions sometimes became strained, but nothing occurred like the ultimate consequences of paper money inflation.

Today Congress is constantly besieged by minority groups seeking benefits from the public treasury. Often these groups. control enough votes in many Congressional districts to change the outcome of elections. And so Congressmen find it difficult to persuade themselves not to give in to pressure groups. With no bad immediate consequence it becomes expedient to accede to a spending demand. The Treasury is seemingly inexhaustible. Besides the unorganized taxpayers back home may not notice this particular expenditure -- and so it goes.

Let's take a quick look at just the payroll pressure elements. On June 30,1932, there were 2,196,151 people receiving regular monthly checks from the Federal Treasury. On June 30, 1947, this number had risen to the fantastic total of 14,416,393 persons.

This 14 1/2 million figure does not include about 2 million receiving either unemployment benefits of soil conservation checks. However, It includes about 2 million GI's getting schooling or on-the-job-training. Excluding them, the total is about l2 1/2 million or 500% more than in 1932. If each beneficiary accounted for four votes (and only half exhibited this payroll allegiance response) this group would account for 25 million votes, almost by itself enough votes to win any national election.

Besides these direct payroll voters, there are a large number of State, county and local employees whose compensation in part comes from Federal subsidies and grants-in-aid.

Then there are many other kinds of pressure groups. There are businesses that are being enriched by national defense spending and foreign handouts. These firms, because of the
money they can spend on propaganda, may be the most dangerous of all.

If the Marshall Plan meant $100 million worth of profitable business for your firm, wouldn't you Invest a few thousands or so to successfully propagandize for the Marshall
Plan? And if you were a foreign government, getting billions, perhaps you could persuade your prospective suppliers here to lend a hand in putting that deal through Congress.

Taxpayer the Forgotten Man

Far away from Congress is the real forgotten man, the taxpayer who foots the bill. He is in a different spot from the tax-eater or the business that makes millions from spending schemes. He cannot afford to spend his time trying to oppose Federal expenditures. He has to earn his own living and carry the burden of taxes as well.

But for most beneficiaries a Federal paycheck soon becomes vital in his life. He usually will spend his full energies if necessary to hang onto this income.

The taxpayer is completely outmatched in such an unequal contest. Always heretofore he possessed an equalizer. If government finances weren't run according to his idea of
soundness he had an individual right to protect himself by obtaining gold.

With a restoration of the gold standard, Congress would have to again resist handouts. That would work this way. If Congress seemed receptive to reckless spending schemes,
depositors' demands over the country for gold would soon become serious. That alarm in turn would quickly be reflected in the halls of Congress. The legislators would learn from the banks back home and from the Treasury officials that confidence in the Treasury was endangered.

Congress would be forced to confront spending demands with firmness. The gold standard acted as a silent watchdog to prevent unlimited public spending.

I have only briefly outlined the inability of Congress to resist spending pressures during periods of prosperity. What Congress would do when a depression comes is a question I
leave to your imagination.

I have not time to portray the end of the road of all paper money experiments.

It is worse than just the high prices that you have heard about. Monetary chaos was followed in Germany by a Hitler; in Russia by all-out Bolshevism; and in other nations by more or less tyranny. It can take a nation to communism without external influences. Suppose the frugal savings of the humble people of America continue to deteriorate in the next 10 years as they have in the past 10 years? Some day the people will almost certainly flock to "a man on horseback" who says he will stop inflation by price-fixing, wage-fixing, and rationing. When currency loses its exchange value the processes of production and distribution are
demoralized.

For example, we still have rent-fixing and rental housing remains a desperate situation.

For a long time shrewd people have been quietly hoarding tangibles in one way or another. Eventually, this individual movement into tangibles will become a general stampede unless corrective action comes soon.

Is Time Propitious

Most opponents of free coinage of gold admit that that restoration is essential, but claim the time is not propitious. Some argue that there would be a scramble for gold and our enormous gold reserves would soon be exhausted.

Actually this argument simply points up the case. If there is so little confidence in our currency that restoration of gold coin would cause our gold stocks to disappear, then we
must act promptly. The danger was recently highlighted by Mr. Allan Sproul, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who said:

"Without our support (the Federal Reserve System), under present conditions, almost any sale of government bonds, undertaken for whatever purpose, laudable or otherwise, would be likely to find an almost bottomless market on the first day support was withdrawn."

Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion.

The paper money disease has been a pleasant habit thus far and will not he dropped voluntarily any more than a dope user will without a struggle give up narcotics. But in each case the end of the road is not a desirable prospect

I can find no evidence to support a hope that our fiat paper money venture will fare better ultimately than such experiments in other lands. Because of our economic strength the paper money disease here may take many years to run its course.

But we can be approaching the critical stage. When that day arrives, our political rulers will probably find that foreign war and ruthless regimentation is the cunning alternative to domestic strife. That was the way out for the paper-money economy of Hitler and others.

In these remarks I have only touched the high points of this problem. I hope that I have given you enough information to challenge you to make a serious study of it.

I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold, although they may outwardly seemingly favor it. Also those elements here and abroad who are getting rich from the continued American inflation will oppose a return to sound money. You must be prepared to meet their opposition intelligently and vigorously. They have had 15 years of unbroken victory.

But, unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money.

There is no more important challenge facing us than this issue -- the restoration of your freedom to secure gold in exchange for the fruits of your labors.

slingshot (9/23/01; 09:11:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 62211)
Invisable Hand Msg#62205 Belgian Msg# 62204
Good Morning Everyone.

If I understand your posts right. There is a disagreement between Savings and interest rates.
Just a few comments.
On interest rates. With the unemployment rates going up will that be those who can afford a loan even with a 2% rate?
Savings? Are they saving for Hyperinflation?
Belgians point of Psychological (economic) Process has to be the Wild Card for the consumer.
What would it do for a person to go into debt for a piece of land with a house on it, even at 1% when you loose your job.
The loan creates more fiat and default on the loan is the loss of security for the consumer. Should I add his land and home gives the appearance of security. Even when the purchase is paid off there are still TAXES.

I think both of you are right, each with its own veiw.

In the days to come people will ask, "Why am I in this handbasket and Where am I going?".

Round and round the Fiat goes, and where it goes nobody knows. (For Sure).

Gold more than ever.
Slingshot

CoBra(too) (9/23/01; 08:45:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62210)
...Patriotism ...
- Nothing to do with exorzism or any such ... sorry ...

CoBra(too) (9/23/01; 08:43:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62209)
From Patriozism to Panic ...
As the 3rd Qu. is inevitably drawing to a close people around the globe will get to see the proof of reality on their mutual funds, 401K's and broker accounts. The carnage they see may well lead to another wave of redemptions and the quarterly earnings numbers may well enhance the flight -to quality?
- Here I hesitate, since the bond and tsy markets are not functioning in tranquility, but are best characterized by by unprecedented volatility. Since the fixed interest sector or bond market is the largest segment of any financial market, it also is the largest segment of derivative bets.
You just have to look at JPM's interest rate derivative position - the gold derivative risk seems just a midget in this context, though you've got to put that into a perspective too and you'd come up with a number of almost 3/4 of the alledged official gold holdings of the US - , kind'a mind boggling, not?

The question now becomes flight to what quality - as once the US$ was perceived the ultimate safe haven, along with its tsy bills and bonds and US RE - while real quality, id est pm's have been treated as relics of barbary?

As it may take a while, to re-install for all to see that the ultimate hedge is still the private ownership of gold and p(g)m's, not a pledge to to anyone's credit whims.

And so I guess we've seen only the first wave of panic in the aftermath of the tragic 911 events. An event which historically will be seen as the cataclysmic catalyst of enhancement of the trends in place, before the horrendous terror hit. And from here on it will be PANIC, a financial panic neither patriotism nor revenge can avert - at least until all the bubbles have burst.

The enormities of debt, the US$, the R-E-markets and the explosive leverage of the derivative gang - Pop, goes the weasel! - As the "quality" SnP and DJI already illustrate the panic taking its toll as collateral damage, un-imagined by the public.

The real collateral damage will be the real and significant loss of life, liberty and personal property for any and all of us.

God bless us all and America - cb2

The Invisible Hand (9/23/01; 08:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62208)
Now they are telling tell that the WTC attacks could not have come at a worse time because the economy started to recover
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1559000/1559154.stm
This is Eddie George, governor of our dear Bank of England, speaking:
Prior to the attacks, Britain had been on course to avoid a major economic downturn, Sir Edward said.
"These tragic events could not have happened at a worse time.
"Before the events of 11 September, the perception that was shared among my central banking colleagues was that we were around the bottom."
Now, with falling share markets and a dent in consumer confidence, it was "too soon to say" whether the British economy would escape a recession, he said.
"The overall impression, at this stage, is that we will see some weakening in the current quarter and perhaps in the next quarter.
"Looking beyond that situation, it is very difficult to see what has changed fundamentally."

Galearis (9/23/01; 07:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62207)
A FWIW report, perhaps credible.
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/
September 23 2001 TERRORISM: LEAD STORY

There will be a flurry of these types of stories. From the Sunday Times:

snip***
SAS troops in Afghanistan have been fired upon by Taliban soldiers in the first clash of the campaign against global terrorism.

Nobody was hurt, military sources said, adding that the gunfire had been "more symbolic than directed". They suggested that the small SAS team had "spooked" Taliban soldiers near Kabul, who had fired indiscriminately before fleeing.

However, the incident marks an escalation in what has so far been only an intelligence war. The Taliban are in a high state of alert for coalition forces waiting to enter their country.

It is rare for Ministry of Defence insiders to confirm that their forces have been involved in skirmishes, but a source close to the SAS said there had been a clash late on Friday.

SAS troopers, together with members of MI6 and the CIA, are working with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in the search for Osama Bin Laden, the Saudi-born millionaire believed to have masterminded the suicide hijacker attacks on America 12 days ago in which 6,818 are feared to have died.

They are seeking intelligence about Bin Laden's whereabouts, the location of mines, routes he might take out of the country and the help of guides for later operations.

Unlike their American counterparts, SAS troopers specialise in long-term operations behind enemy lines, making them ideal for intelligence-gathering missions in Afghanistan.

The soldiers involved in the clash with the Taliban were believed to be from a four-man unit that had crossed the border, possibly from Tajikistan.

The SAS men on the ground are communicating with commanders via RAF Nimrods from the secretive 51 Squadron, using state-of-the-art "squirt" radios to transmit large amounts of data in seconds, helping avoid either interception or pin-pointing by the enemy.

American forces are also on the move. Advance units of two United States army divisions are on the Afghan border preparing for strikes against the Taliban regime.

Units of the 82nd Airborne and 101st Air Assault Divisions arrived at bases in Pakistan, near the border towns of Quetta and Peshawar, as a huge build- up of ships, aircraft and troops ordered to the region by President George W Bush continued. A Pentagon official declared that the military was ready to respond "the second the president pushes the button".

US military aircraft carrying reconnaissance equipment landed yesterday at a base near Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. It also emerged that US attack helicopters are still stationed inside Uzbekistan after recent joint military exercises. Northern Alliance rebels were reported to be advancing towards Mazar-i-Sharif, a possible bridgehead into Afghanistan for American forces.

The coalition operation inside Afghanistan coincided with intelligence reports that any further terrorist action would be radically different from the suicide hijackings that led to three passenger planes being crashed into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon. "They've been there and done that," said one US government adviser. "The real fear now is chemical."

It was revealed last night that crop-spraying planes had been grounded in America after police found evidence at a suspected terrorist hideout suggesting that plans were being made to disperse biological or chemical agents. In Britain, the security services believe the main threat could be the release of poisons into the air or the contamination of water.

Proposals for emergency anti-terrorist legislation were presented to Tony Blair yesterday amid pressure from opposition MPs and some ministers for an early recall of parliament.

Ministers and MI5 officials are concerned that any crackdown on terrorist suspects could fall foul of human rights legislation. They are pressing for a new "judge-proof" law to be rushed through parliament.

David Blunkett, the home secretary, who has secured agreement for a European Union-wide arrest warrant and a faster extradition process, wants stronger powers to freeze or confiscate terrorist assets.

American officials, who offered a $5m reward and protection for anyone providing information about the terrorist attacks, said yesterday that the threat of further assaults would not divert them from hitting Bin Laden's Afghan allies hard. "They are about to see what the wrath of God feels like," said one intelligence source.

Military tension was heightened by reports in Pakistan that an unidentified reconnaissance drone had been shot down over Afghanistan. If the aircraft was American, the incident would indicate that US forces have launched scouting missions.

The crisis was complicated by the arrival of Pope John Paul II in the Kazakh capital of Astana on a long-planned visit. Kazakhstan is close enough to Afghanistan for the Pope's security to be a concern should hostilities break out.

At the presidential retreat in Camp David, Bush held a "council of war" with senior advisers. He was expected to sign an executive order identifying terrorist groups and placing a freeze on their assets.

Today he will preside over a flag-raising ceremony when the Stars and Stripes will formally be hoisted back to full mast, signalling the end of official mourning for the victims of the attacks on September 11.

US officials said the military campaign would fall into two phases: an opening salvo of missiles and aerial bombing restricted to targets inside Afghanistan, followed by a potentially protracted ground campaign spearheaded by American and British special forces.

Early targets are expected to include the airport at Kabul, communications towers and power supplies. Terrorist targets in other countries might be considered once all US forces heading for the region are in place, the sources said.

In the latest deployments, the US amphibious ship Essex left the Sasebo naval base in Japan, followed by the nuclear-powered submarine, Bremerton. The two vessels departed a day after the USS Kitty Hawk's aircraft carrier battle group left its home port near Tokyo. More than 100 warplanes, among them B-1 and B-52 bombers, are also believed to be ready to begin flying missions.

Concern that Saudi Arabia was reluctant to let American commanders run an air assault from the Prince Sultan airbase near Riyadh receded when the US said its operation was "up and running".

At home, Americans struggled to resume normal lives.

A full programme of American football games was under way, with F-15 fighters ready to enforce no-fly zones over stadiums. Documents left behind by the hijackers had indicated some kind of follow-up action on September 22 - yesterday. The sense of unease was heightened by last week's economic free-fall on Wall Street, which suffered the worst one-week losses since the Depression of the 1930s.

Israeli tanks entered a Palestinian-controlled part of the Gaza Strip last night and exchanged fire with Palestinian gunmen, a Palestinian official said.
The exchange was apparently in response to mortar bombs fired at a nearby Israeli settlement, and is the most serious breach of the Middle East ceasefire insisted upon by Bush in the wake of the terrorist attacks.

Galearis (9/23/01; 06:46:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 62206)
Capping gold price!?
Don't see it at all...
Comex would default instantly with the resulting run on remaining eligible metal. Gold AND silver AND Pt AND Pd.

CB gold loan defaults would follow shortly and the whole game is wholly exposed.

But I would expect some new rules coming into play at COMEX, some sort of hybrid solution.

G.

The Invisible Hand (9/23/01; 05:41:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62205)
Belgian's reflections on the easy availability of credit
http://www.tijd.be/articles/dossiers/20010917/tijdnet16981781.ihtm
As far as I understand it, your msg#: 62204 argues that interest rates will rise once the public realizes that all is paper. You are saying that this will lead to the collapse of the paper illusion.

Your thesis is hereby diametrically opposed to the thesis of German guru Roland Leuschel of Belgium BBL bank who was arguing on Saturday September 15 that the US economy will collapse as soon as the US consumer starts saving again. In my dictionary saving means indeed an additional supply of funds to the banks and thus a lowering of interest rates.

Belgian (9/23/01; 04:38:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62204)
@ Invisible
Reflexion on your answer to Uponroof.

Make money (fiat paper) * SCARCE * and difficult to obtain as a * CREDIT * ! This (impossible-discipline) is the only way to
make its use, to remain infinite. Exactly the contrary has been done and is done, today, at an maniacal speed.
For no other simple reason that when scarcity and credit-availability, are being brought back to normal...the whole global economic illusion does collapse with 100% certainty ! The general public IS NOT AWARE OF THIS and everything MUST be mobilized to prevent such awareness or even suspicion. IT IS AS CHILDLY SIMPLE AS THAT !

This Permanent Depreciation phenomina is approached from so much different un-necessary angles, with too much academic talk.

The fact that the Valuation of Gold, yes only Gold (!) is not following that Permanent Currency Depreciation, is nothing else, repeat : nothing else , than evidence for the greatest paper show on earth !

The use of Interest Rates to slow down the availability of easy credit, has been reduced to zero ! ZERO !!!!!!

Our only frustration is finding the breaking point. That breaking point, lies in the moment that the general public starts to realize (suspect) that ALL IS BUT PAPER !
They will become suspicious when the global managers, do exaggerate in the printing speed and magnitude. When here and there, parts of the paper house of cards is imploding.
15 billion $ to keep US airplanes airborne. Another terrorist blow (wich I do not expect soon) and more and more and more, artificial creation of activity.
This is the explanation why there is so much focus on the economic consequences of the recent atrocity. Fear that suspicion on the big masquerade might surface by the general public.

Again, we all do grossly underestimate the universal signal function of the Gold-Valuation. But you are luckely too young to remember the Gold-Panic that reigned in the eighties. Interest Rates stood at 2% when their majestic ascend to 16%+, started. Do you feel it coming ? The causes for that panic (1980) have aggravated exponentially.
We only covered it up with an illusionary expansion of "feel good" economy.

The above picture is so dramatic, that it needs, constant denial, and permanent doubt about its possibility to materialize. That's the mood we have landed into ! There is no way out of this, one way street, evolution. The only alternative is to increase the speed at wich the paperization is driving.

Impossible, absolutely impossible that this catch 22 situation is even suggested by the financial brotherhood.
Suicidal !

The stockmarket implosion is already organising a part of that paper destruction, that in fact never was. It is the US as last bastion that is shaking on its legs. All others have already crashed and don't give any sign of resussitation. What does this tell us ? That an enormous turn around is behind the corner and that economic expansion will restart and connect again with the magnitude we witnessed before...? Forget it !

The general public must be in direct confrontation with the drama, before they understand and believe what has been happening. Loose your job and become unemployed for a prolonged period of time. An increasing amount of individual defaults and spreading like the flu. A loss of confidence when the patriotic machine doesn't produce results. A long period of consolidation where all individual and public mis-management must pay for previous mistakes and greadiness. This is a psychological (economical) process . We are watching, the struggling of it, now. All is done to push away that breaking point.
GOLD KNOWS IT....BUT ITS SIGNAL IS VERY WEAK !

The Invisible Hand (9/23/01; 04:28:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 62203)
Irwin Stelzer, Washington correspondent of the London Sunday Times, sees gold as a resource which should have, but didn't, allowed the Soviet economy to survive its planners
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/
From the article �Capitalism survived Hitler and Stalin. Terror won't beat it� by Irwin Stelzer in the Business section of today's London Sunday Times:

If the economists expecting that the economy will revive and follow the V-pattern are right, it will prove once again that capitalism is a more durable system than those that periodically challenge it. Germany's national socialism proved unable, in the long run, to sustain itself as a peacetime system for providing the material needs of the country's citizens. Communism had a brief vogue, especially among European and American intellectuals, before being revealed as a horrifically repressive system incapable of producing goods in sufficient quantity to avoid systemic shortages, or to allow an economy rich in oil, gold and other resources to survive its planners.

=====

So the availability of gold is not a sufficient condition to sustain an economy. Is it a necessary condition for capitalism to exist? How can you have capitalism if money (gold) is being outlawed? And I'm back on October 09 in the Boston District Court, where it could be argued that the gold cartel will achieve what Hitler and Stalin couldn't achieve.

Belgian (9/23/01; 03:30:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62202)
@ Netking @ Uponroof
Netking : Glad to see that you discovered the "Saudi Arabia" factor ! The Giant with its rivalling Kingdoms.
Lilliputan Belgian foreign affairs minister got the authority from EMU, to leave immediately for the M.E.
Let us wait and see if the impulsive US hot soup shall be moderated or not . The appaling drama (WTC) could eventually be used to eradicate terrorism for good...IF THE WORLD WANTS TO BRING UP ENOUGH GOODWILL AND SELFCONTROL TO USE THE RIGHT MODUS OPERANDI !!!! Otherwise the cancer will disperse and get worse. This is not the "dove's" attitude but the honest/pragmatic one. 6.333 innocent people should not have died for nothing ! Amen.

Uponroof # 62192: Sir, you already builded a reputation by the neighbours. I've been learning already a lot from your insights. Thanks !
POG fixed !? >>>Indeed, "they" surely played already with this kind of super-management. The fact that your intuition is producing such a suggestion is significant. You seem to realize that they are up to something with Gold, whatever it may be. Behind the almost perfect screen...lots of golden maneouvers are carried out. Gold is as explosive and powerfull as can possibly be. For this reason, it is impossible to take any action on Gold. It is too late to mention Gold to the public one way or another. Any word or signal on or about Gold would result in a massive run.
The WA sept.'99 POG spike was the most clearly evidence of the "get ready" attitude versus Gold. The Jessica Cross (and others), relativations of the event, afterwards, is only further evidence of the behind the screens, intentions with Gold. Exactly the same subtilities are happening with the POO. But, happily for us, we are considered to suffer from paranoia or shizophrenie.

Fixing POG is the Gold-standard revisited. This would prepare the way for throwing away the present debt-loaded dollar for a fresh / new piece of paper, where the infernal debt-spiral could restart at zero. All the old debtpaper will scramble for all the gold they could possibly get and make this operation impossible.

I'm inclined to conclude that Gold is stucked and trapped into a vanadium harded steel, grip. We are awaiting the metal-fatique, caused by Physical Gold accumulation - vibrations. The only thing that we can do is, spreading the theory and argument for the increase of these Physical Gold in possession-vibrations. This against the almighty brotherhood of vanadium steel fists.

The very same manipulation-mechanism, do exist on so many listed individual stocks. How many tricks do exist to massage a stock in one or the other direction ! Isn't this the real name of the financial (semi-productive) play ?
It feels "young" to remain naieve...but we can't help getting older, unfortunately.
Your input much appreciated and keep on firing.

The Invisible Hand (9/23/01; 03:27:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62201)
Uponroof - POG fixing
In your
(9/22/01; 22:27:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62192)
"As of October 15th, I am fixing the Price of Gold at 275 per oz." G.W. Bush
you are asking for a rebuttal to the scenario to cap world POG by an official POG fixing.

My initial remark to this is the question whether this is not what Reg Howe is going to allege on October 09 in the Boston district court.

As I understand it, the POG will rise
(and therefore be deemed suitable for �capping� by the bureaucrats) because inflation (-expectations) will rise. A rise in the POG is seen as a rise in these expectations. Gold is/was (and will soon again be) indeed the inflation barometer of a free society (I will not address the question whether for the moment we have indeed free society. Soros, Popper and others know more about an open (not: free) society than yours truly)

If as our detractors believe, gold were just an ordinary commodity, the cap on gold only would be contrary to any rational purpose the government might have in imposing them.

As George Reisman indicates:
The government imposes price controls because it believes they will enable people to obtain these goods who otherwise could not have obtained them because of too high a price. The government leaves uncontrolled those goods whose production it considers to be relatively unimportant. The effect of this policy, however, is to destroy the production of the very goods the government regards as vital, while encouraging the production of goods it considers unimportant. This occurs because the price controls restrict or altogether destroy the profitability of producing the controlled goods. At the same time, the shortages the price controls create cause demand to spill over into the markets for the uncontrolled goods and thereby make their production still more profitable. (REISMAN, G., The Government against the Economy, Ottawa, Illinois, Jameson Books, 1979, p.115)

Capping the POG will thus result in price rises for other goods.

But gold is not an ordinary commodity. So the next question is: are price rises inflation or must the government be printing in order for there to be inflation?

Reisman views it this way:
An increase in aggregate demand is the result of an increase in the quantity of money in the economic system. When new and additional money enters the economic system, whether it is newly mined gold in a country using gold as money, or newly created paper currency or checkbook money, as in the present-day United States, that money will be spent, and those who receive it in the sale of theirs goods and services will respend it (REISMAN, op. cit., p.3)

And he concludes on p.194 that the solution to inflation is (not capping the POG) but an end to the government's arbitrary increase in the quantity of money. He then goes on to point to the disagreement between Friedman and the monetarists on the one hand and the supporters of the gold standard on the invisible hand. Reisman's own conviction being that the ideal monetary system would be the closest possible approximation consistent with the principle of laissez faire to a 100 % gold reserve system, in which gold (and silver) coins constituted a significant proportion of the actual money supply. Reisman considers such a system to be both inflationproof and deflation-depressionprroof.

But the question concerned the rebuttal to the scenario to cap world POG by an official POG fixing. My answer would again be the question whether Reg Howe is not precisely arguing that this barometer has been with held from us, i.e. that this official POG fixing is occuring. FWIW.

The CoinGuy (9/23/01; 02:10:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 62200)
Black Blade
Thanks...

The reason why I asked is I got stuck with three stocks in the oil & natural gas sectors. UPL, VPI, & RDC(Rowan) of which I've gotten slammed hard, especially Rowan. I think their good companies, but I've done so well in other sectors that I thought I'd dump them, and write it off against my capital gains.

I've read in the past where you've said there were a lot of new NG wells being drilled, but not much in the way of increase in supply. I think I'll just ride storm out...hopefully it's just a flash flood.

The CoinGuy

Black Blade (9/23/01; 01:36:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62199)
RE{ The CoinGuy

Interesting article. I generally agree with most everything in the article. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade (9/23/01; 01:03:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 62198)
Wall Street Ends Worst Week In 68 Years
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6694-2001Sep21.html

Snippit:

About $1.4 trillion in stock value was wiped out in five trading sessions - easily 10 times the estimated property damage caused by the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

But investors were worried less about real estate damage than about the direct hit to consumer confidence, and the impact that is certain to have on spending, employment and profits.

Some economic forecasters yesterday predicted that the nation's unemployment rate, which stood at 4.9 percent in August, could reach 7 percent by next spring as the effects of the terrorist attacks ripple through the U.S. and global economies. Every percentage-point increase in the rate represents another 1.4 million Americans without jobs.

Black Blade: Great charts too - really tells the story for the TA types. I would think that 7 percent unemployment is a mild estimate. The US economy was tanking before the recent terrorist attacks. A market collapse was already in progress as higher energy costs triggered the current Recession and these attacks along with the Stock Market Crash helped push the Market indices over the edge into the abyss. Hang on for the ride, I somehow don't see this as being over yet.

The CoinGuy (9/23/01; 00:51:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62197)
Weekly Storm update
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Hello All:

Wasn't sure if everyone knows about Jim Puplava's "Weekly Storm Updates". It is a great read, very thorough. In this weeks edition I see hint's of what's been spoken about on the Trail for quite some time.

Black Blade: Jim comments on Natural Gas quite extensively, care to comment on his opinions? After reading all of your posts, I think you've been right on the money for some time now, and would value your opinion.

Thanks,

The CoinGuy

Black Blade (9/23/01; 00:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 62196)
New York Stock Exchange Issues Monthly Short Interest Report
http://www.nyse.com/press/NT0005A61A.html

Like rats leaving a burning ship, these same institutional investors who cry and wail that the American people should be "Patriotic" and "Buy Stocks" all the while they are shorting and selling shares themselves, Even Pied Pipers like Rush Limbaugh and Paul Harvey got in on the act last week asking - no begging and pleading for people to be "Patriotic" and "Buy Stocks." This is certainly no time to be trying to "Catch Falling Knives" on some misguided notion that throwing away cash is somehow "Patriotic." It is now time to think about economic survival as the carnage in the Stock Market may not be over. Earnings warnings abound and even "Pre-Warnings" have been announced. Better to stock up on Gold and Silver while prices are cheap. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black Blade (9/23/01; 00:28:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 62195)
SEC Extends Special Trading Rules
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2001-97.txt

In a very desperate bid to stop the carnage on Wall Street, the SEC has extended the special rules on trading for corporations to salvage any semblance of a viable market. It looks very "GRIM" as investors will see through this attempt at market manipulation. There is no positive news to trade on. There are no sellers than buyers and now it appears as though individual investors may soon be ready to break ranks and run for the exits. As calls for "Patriotic Buying" went out, corporate insiders and institutional investors were abandoning the stock market like rats leaving a burning ship. With a run developing on precious metals, it looks as if the POG could soon skyrocket. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

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