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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/23/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Peter Asher
(06/23/01; 23:35:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 56723)
Better read this !!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hein062501pv.html
The Economic Significance of "NO"
Black Blade
(06/23/01; 22:21:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 56722)
Today, Nortel. Tomorrow...
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jun2001/nf20010622_893.htm
Snippit:
Multibillion-dollar write-downs of ill-fated acquisitions will spread beyond tech and telecom. new accounting rules are going into effect Jan. 1 that will force companies to be more rigorous about writing down the value of these assets. Many companies are facing the abyss, contemplating huge charges in the next six months. "It's going to be a bloodbath," says Bob Willens, an accounting and tax analyst at Lehman Brothers Inc.
Black Blade: It is going to get ugly over the next few weeks. For a good look t a sampling of companies in the "Danger Zone," check out the table at the bottom of the page. Pay particular attention to the value column for market cap and the column for potential write downs. Very telling. Wall Street is headed into "Interesting Times."
ORO
(06/23/01; 21:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 56721)
Ol Yeller - Kasriel's problem
http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/010621.html
Kasriel did modifications to the Economist calculations to show how low dollar savings are by disregarding the fact that the income tax rate differential on capital gains vs. dividends (which are counted by Kasriel as income) caused companies to give out cash flow from operations through the purchase of stock off the market.
Furthermore, this ignores the fact that much income is not recorded in the national accounts because of the poor accounting for stock option compensation. At the end of last year, up to nearly 20% of market capitalization was within stock option compensation programs. About 4% of capitalization is given away to employees and directors of public companies. When stock values produce no gain on the options, they are routinely repriced, more are issued, or replaced with cash compensation.
On this count too, Kasriel misses the boat. If the recent study he quotes (a very short discussion of it is available in Business Week for 6.25.01 on the yellow page) shows anything it is that since the 1992 "recovery" the lower end of the labor market has gained sufficiently to resume saving at its normal rate, however, the upper income people are widely known to be doing much better yet their savings have fallen. Does that not indicate that the savings vehicles and the income sources are being missed by the statisticians?
The Flow of Funds reports indicate that corporations were shelling out at peak over $400 bil. to buy back stock (either their own or another company's, which rewards the other company's shareholders), now the rate is around $300 billion. This would increase income among shareholders (top 50% of households) by over 10% over reported income in 99 and 8% in 2000, easily covering their "savings deficit".
Black Blade
(06/23/01; 21:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 56720)
RE: Camel - "The Slow Burn"
I have heard time and again that the CAFÉ standards must be raised. I would think that the market forces will eventually do just that. As in the 1970's during the oil shocks, we saw a move away from production of US muscle cars to imports of Japanese Rice-Grinders. "Necessity is the Mother of Invention." Many who propose the enforcement of differing CAFÉ standards also live in regions where Mass Transportation is available. Yet most people will still drive solo on fume-choked freeways such as in LA, NY, SF, etc. Of course sustained higher prices for oil could very well lead to production of oil from tar sands, shales, heavy oils, etc. People will probably be willing to pay higher prices for the freedom of the open road.
The drilling boom that you speak of was an effort to become energy self sufficient. It actually began under Nixon and lasted for several years and it included the development of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for national defense purposes. Production did increase though not enough to meet growing demand. The North American oil peak was reached in 1970 (as per M. King Hubbert model) as the major large NA oil fields were in various stages of decline. Even so, at this time the oil shales were under development in Utah and Colorado, and the Athabasca tar sands in Canada were soon under expanded development. OPEC eventually opened the oil spigot and the market collapsed as oil prices retreated. The end result was that oil imports began in earnest and oil and gas rigs were soon scrapped and destroyed.
The Pemex oil fields in Mexico were mismanaged from day one (typical for socialist states like Mexico). The North Sea oil fields have already peaked and are in various stages of decline. Oil and gas will continue to be a vital part of the economy. The real issue that must be addressed in the short term is not oil and distillates, but rather electricity and natural gas. Electricity and natural gas are more fundamentally pervasive throughout the economy and yet are not as immediately visible to the average person as is a sharp price rise at the gas pump. That is why I address this issue as "The Slow Burn." Drill rig capacity is maxed out, and production isn't keeping up with demand. Yet another 300 or so NG-fired power plants are scheduled to come on line. Also there is more interest in fuel cell technology and here again the hydrogen is cracked from methane CH4 more easily than from water H2O (very little net energy gain). Looks like the US economy is at risk due to the end of "Cheap Energy."
BTW, Julia Butterfly's tree is no more. After being struck by lightening after she left, someone toppled it with a chainsaw. Even while she hung out in the tree, logging continued all around her - nothing accomplished. During that time another anti-logging protester stood in the path of a falling tree and was crushed to death. Dying for ones beliefs is one thing, but I would wonder if this is a possible candidate for the "Darwin Awards?" Cheers!
- Black Blade
auspec
(6/23/01; 21:14:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 56719)
TiF/Rich
JPM/C/BarAnglo/GS
ALL in a pickle, ALL tools of the same folks. BarAnglo announces hedge agreement, proceeds of same goes to JPM/C, overseen/guaranteed by ESF/USTreas, loss of US gold in process. Some paper, some physical workout. Some soon, some down the road. Some 'donations' to the cause by CBs. Multiple tools available. What happens to GS, the Clinton HenchCo? Do they survive or get what they all deserve? Does Bush administration have any allegiance whatsoever to GS? Answer, yes, likely so, but well down the list. Watch GS very carefully for signs of what is coming. The lot of them can only pull this off with a higher POG!
Please consider all this as my speculation only. They will do exactly what you or I do when in a bind. Piece the solution together from as many viable angles as possible, chip away at it, ultimately working the Bailout quite similar to LTCM. Directed responsibilities and obfuscation, very little to no transparency.
Rich-- "How can prices not rise?" You got me, man!
BC BN BD
GATA Pressure!
Camel
(6/23/01; 20:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 56718)
Slow Burn
Black Blade. Thanks again for all your energy commentary.Those of us who have decried the big gas guzzlers all these years are feeling a bit of elation that the 20 year opposition to the CAFE standards seems to finally be crumbling, . Too little too late? Probably, but at least a step in the right direction.
One recent article stated that a target of 55 mpg by the year 2020 was being consisdered.Again an admirable goal but so tragic that the momentum from the 70's wasn't continued. Perhaps we would have been prepared by now.
I was a bit stunned that the momentum seems to be shifting away from an agressive drilling program so I guess that seperates me from a lot of my Green bretheren .If I were more of a partisan I wouldn't be here , but up in a tree somewhere with Julia Butterfly.
I must say however that my view as to what is best for the country at this point is a stratagy to switch as rapidly as possible to more fuel efficiant vehicles.These are where the greatest gains can be made the fastest.. Just hypothetically.if this country could increse the fuel efficiancy in its fleet of vehicles from the present 24mpg to 32 mpg that would be a 25% increase or roughly the equivalent of adding 25% new productive capasity to our oil supplies and refining capasity.
Of course the markets will do much of the work .As the price of gas raises over the next ten years. everyone will have great incentive to purchase fuel efficiant vehicles. There is however tremendous inertia as well as out right resistance to this solution and the government can play a constructive role with a combination of coersion of the industry to produce more efficiant cars as well as tax incentives for buyers to purchase them. Probably one of the most potent tools is the "bully pulpit". Bush or maybe Cheany needs to be out there every few weeks exhorting the Ameican people to prepare for a crisis ahead.
Of course all of this is anthema to some groups and they have been succesful for 20 years in preventing the country from taking these steps.Hopefully their day is drawing to an end, and I suspect that history will not look kindly on them.
My view is that the equivalent of a 25% increase in oil production that could be achieved this way is not possible to achieve through any amount of increased domestic drilling , because the resourse base is simply gone. Others might disagree here and maybe you might be able to supply better information . Wasn't there something that has become known as "the great drilling boom of the early 1980's". This is sort of a blank for me but I believe it was a Reagan inspired attempt to secure a domestic sourse of oil and at the peak of this boom there were as many as 4000 rigs in operation compared to about 1200 now. Maybe you can provide a differant point of view, but wasn't the final result of all that only a very modest increases in supply and in fact the overall production of domestic oil has continued its steady decline.
Another unknown is the situation in Mexico which is one of our biggest suppliers of crude. Isn't their main field in the Yucatan Gulf having serious problems .,and they are now undertaking a 9 billion dollar project of "injecting" the field to keep up the pressure in the wells? Also isn't the big North Sea Field projected to peak this year.These will be the two benchmark guides to watch to see if the more pessimistic scenarios outlined by Campbell actually begin to come to pass .
Of course there are the tar sands in Canada and the very heavy pitch type deposits in Venezuala, but the price at which these can be extracted and the scale of the infrastructure that will be necesary to replace conventional oil will be very great., not to mention the increased amounts of energy required to extract it.
R Powell
(6/23/01; 19:19:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 56717)
Chinese silver supply
From Merrill Lynch & Co. commodity outlook on silver dated 6/8/01 concerning China.
"Most of the 10 companies that received 2001 export quotas from the Chinese government have used up most of them and have asked for extra quotas to continue exports in the second half of the year. If granted, this could serve as a major drag on silver prices."
Merrill has been bearish on gold and silver for a long time calling now for a silver trading range between $4.30 and $4.60 basis July Comex. This is from a Mr. O'Neill. I have e-mailed him to ask for more information on Chinese and all aboveground supply. I have never tried to contact anyone there before so (other than the expected sales call) I'll see if we get a response.
Hey, auspec! You're not really Mr. O'Neill are you?
Rich
Tree in the Forest
(6/23/01; 18:51:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 56716)
auspec - JPM/CBarrickAnglogold
If the "merger" of these 4 companies/banks/mines/hedge funds, or whatever you want to call them comes off, then it's bailout for sure. In that case, you were right and I was wrong. I never expected that move! But what are they going to do, give them 10 years to pull enough au out of the ground to satisfy all creditors? Put 4 incompetently run companies in a barrel for 10 years and what do you get? One helluva sour pickle!
R Powell
(6/23/01; 18:32:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 56715)
JMB
Offtopic
I've been dansing with power trowels for many years but usually only on large commercial floors. Residential work (houses and garages) we trowel by hand. Great fun!
Randy (@ The Tower)
(6/23/01; 18:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 56714)
Notable quote from Old Yeller's article...
---"Have you noticed the increased frequency of financial market crises since the mid 1980s? Mexico/the oil patch/Continental Bank, the US stock market, banks and S&Ls, Mexico again, Asia, Russia, Brazil, Long-Term Capital Management, the US stock market again, Turkey, Argentina. What's the trigger for the next financial market crisis? The bursting of the housing market bubble? And have you noticed what the palliative for these crises has been? The Fed cuts interest rates, which encourages the creation of even more credit.
+
Deflation is anathema to debtors. Inflation is music to debtors' ears. There are more voters who are debtors than who are creditors. As a result, expect increased political pressure for the Fed to keep inflating."---
Tower's bottom line: You can't "fight the Fed" (in a different manner of speaking) because you can't fight the majority. Market force alsways wins in the end. Buy gold to have a form of savings protected from human nature.
Old Yeller
(6/23/01; 18:02:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 56713)
The state of the nation...
http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/010621.html
Paul Kasriel does an excellent job in refuting the Ecomomist's recent downplaying of the perceived negative savings rate in the US.
The last graph sure looks promising for gold's future.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(6/23/01; 17:36:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 56712)
When(!) it begins to rain, it shall likely pour.
http://www.brecorder.com/story/000000/200106/20010624/200106240109.shtml?Top~Stories
Read, and draw your own conclusions as countries reevaluate their dollar-dominated reserve structure.
(Short on time now, but hopefully tomorrow will allow me to offer several responses to comments from the past several days.)
JMB
(6/23/01; 17:28:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 56711)
R POWELL
An off topic inquiry
Have you ever used a power trowel in your trade?
R Powell
(6/23/01; 17:05:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 56710)
Belgian/ auspec
Thanks for the T.A. numbers. Someone at GE forum keeps laughing at the small up-down POG moves and has repeatedly stated that the $293 level must be cleared before gold can fly. What resistance do you see after POG closes convincingly above $323? Your technical work may tell us where fund placed buy orders are hiding. Sometimes very useful information.
Midas reports 10% of yearly production bought in a short (two months?) period of time. You translated this into 250 tonnes for us. How much more will they buy while they can? considering short estimates anywhere from 5,000 to 15,000 tonnes built up over many years. So, now this year's supply estimate goes down from 2500 tonnes plus X number of tonnes from leased and sold into market To the 2500 tonnes of mining supply minus whatever has been and will be secretly bought back directly from mine supply. This directly bought is repaying previously sold (but still owed back as leased) so this directly bought is not satisfying any of this year's normal demand which is about to become abnormal demand (with irrational exuborant buying). If the reports are true, and given that supply and demand pressures still influence price, and assuming less intentional control (surpression of POG) or (better yet!) loss of price control, how can prices not rise??
Also, if 250 tonnes have gone for leased payback, this is still only 5% of the lowest estimates of gold owed from years of leasing. Apparently they are going to try to repay what they can in physical. Futures positions might ease their financial pain for the rest IF they are allowed to settle if currency. ?? Those that are owed may have no choice but to accept whatever they can. "So sorry, but I haven't got your ounce of gold. Will you accept 350 pounds of copper instead? Or perhaps some stock in Dot be Gone?"
BC BN Bdirect
Rich
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(6/23/01; 16:56:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 56709)
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auspec
(6/23/01; 16:34:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 56708)
Rich Powell
Per your #56704: "Bill Murphy reported that there is tremendous buying, up to 10% of next year's mine production, and you {me} speculated that bullion banks {brokers} holding obligations for borrowed {but long gone} gold may be the buyers."
Rich, I think the BBs are doing whatever they can to escape this fiasco in one piece, including buying gold where they can find it, buying calls as they can find them, and leaning on the good graces of the taxpayers sooner or later as well.
However this buying of up to 10% of next year's mine production, your direct buying, is more likely what is known as the 'gold syndicate' as well as a few entities you mentioned in your post #56678. "Could it be big money anticipating higher POG?" "Could it be big time players sensing a squeeze or trying to initiate one?" Maybe these entities even more than the mentioned 'Syndicate' players. I am not privy to who exactly IS buying, much to my consternation, so this is conjecture on my part. The model of the Chinese buying DIRECTLY from Harmony is a key one. We don't know, however if these are private or official Chinese as far as I am aware. Cavan Man was quite emphatic about his awareness of big buying, but don't know if he was speaking beyond this China-Harmony linkup.
Suffice it to say that the buying IS there, the market has changed, and we will witness the squirming and desperation of the likes of JPM/C, Barrick, Anglo and the whole cast of characters. With a little politics thrown in for good measure.
"How long can this off COMEX demand go on before it is noticed and copied?" It is already too late to find this amount of gold at this price with this particular degree of ease. The next 12 month's gold production is largely spoken for, no? They had to scavenge around to even come up with this 10% figure as reported by Midas. It will SOON be noticed as will the increased POG to repeat this transaction.
Will leave you with these words of wisdom......Be yourself!
auspec{kled trout}
SteveH
(06/23/01; 15:23:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 56707)
Puts it into perspective
http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm
Computers have allowed for money velocity by being an enabling technology for credit creation. You can't control it if you can't track it. That said, the above link discusses how $100 is turned into many hundreds of dollars in additional loans through money market funds and the GSE's or Freddy and Fanny. The GSE expansion of credit and debt has been the prime contributor to the asset bubble and the real estate bubble. There power to loan and borrow is now waning, making money less available through these nuevo sources of funds other than traditional banks.
In the meantime, it seems (this is my take), that really hard assets aren't being let go without some real hard assets back the other way. This might explain how credit gold has come to fuel (in a hidden way) the credit creation in the GSE arena -- gold leasing and yen carry.
My take on it is that we haven't even begun to see the wash out of this bubble yet, if the principles of modern money creation as discussed at the above link are close to being true.
Belgian
(06/23/01; 15:00:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 56706)
R.Powell/Auspec
If goldproducers are assisting the BBs with 250 tonnes of 2001/2002-production ...they agreed on a price. A compromis between moderate losses for BBs and riskfree unwinding of hedges.
Very basic and visible to all TA of POG gives a simple conclusion : Fibonacci fan-lines and ordinarry speed lines (1/2/3) from Top '96 (414$) to bottom '99 (253$) gives a master resistance (MOB) point on 290$/293$ for line 2. Line 3 gives resistance at 323$ (zone). These figures are also determinant for all non TA-ers.
Jipangu hasn't responded when kindly asked for having a chat.
The respected analyst C.Droke has given me some confidence shock with his article (sensationalism) on US martial law.
I've always my salt at hand.
Wait and cee. I've already BC.
Belgian
(06/23/01; 14:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 56705)
A. Fekete on Kondratieff
Savers (hoarders) aren't deciding anymore on interest rates
as risk/reward for the capital (credit) on offer.
Reason is farstretching "Interventionism" of the collectivity. DE-RESPONSABILIZATION ! The collectivity accepts any politician as long as he/she serves permanently all aspects of deresponsabilization. It is an already ancient trend that is only to be found in Absurdistan.
The remaining genuine savers with the correct reflextions on macro events are overwhelmed by the "feel good" interventionism to such an extend that they loose all common sense and basic instincts. This is surely reflected in the apathical acception and indifference towards the absurd valuation of Gold. The individual is caught in the "Trend" trap. Artificial low (manipulated) interest rates, have exactly the same effect as a low POG.
"Tout va très bien, Madame de la Marquise" All is well in Aloha land !
The multiple decimations on the stock market don't seem to have an effect on the basic instinct of fear. Oh no Sir, the Dow Jones Index is still going strong. And have you recently heard of Banks going bankrupt ? Complacency is masterly engineerded by the collectivity.
80% (Europ figure) of investing individuals is relying on Bank Funds for their financial Walhalla. The past ten years, literally thousands of Funds have emerged and adsorbed loads of surplus confetti. Wich portion of the confetti serves as economic capital and how much of it is speculative wind ? A sudden accident where all this confetti should blow (crash) away is unthinkable. Every endangering iceberg is melted with talking breath heat.
The rapid decline of the 1980 high interest rates has made this illusion possible. The part of real deflation in it is ridiculous small. Hope we all agree on the permanent depreciation facts. And do we have the correct diagnosis for the 1980 IR peaks or zero rates in Japan, already ?
Haven't seen it yet.
These phenomena and their unwinding are the result of concerted interventionism.
Lack of interest for Gold is to be explained by the above.
If sound and profound argumentation, favoring gold hoarding,
isn't resorting any effect...than the price-carrot (POG) must do the trick. And at 600$, they will all have their explanations and an hooked audiance. From there (600$), we can go back to normal (valuation). IMO, this is what is worked at, presently, by the goldproducers and their complices. The WA was the start shot. Now the follow trough.
R Powell
(06/23/01; 14:21:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 56704)
Midas and market forces
Auspec, BC means buy cheap. I stole this BC BN from Scruffy next door but I don't know if it originated with him.
Bill Murphy reported that there is tremendous buying, up to 10% of the next year's mine production, and you speculated that the bullion banks (brokers) holding obligations for borrowed (but long gone) gold may be the buyers. Makes sense to me as they can't buy on any exchanges without driving up the POG so they have gone quietly to the mining sources. This information will not stay hidden from the speculative money for long. Already, reports are surfacing of big money, like Jipangu, moving into mining stocks and probably physical. When these players are well positioned, it will then be to their advantage to "fire up" the market on the visible exchanges like Comex. Open interest there in both gold and silver is extremely low, concentrated IMHO in strong hands.
Also, the market supply has now changed 180 degrees.
For many years we had normal production plus leased (and sold) gold to inflate supply and depress POG. Now, if reports are accurate, leased supply will decrease and normal mining supply will prove short of estimates as it disappears directly from the mines and goes to repay loans from the past. At the same time, demand will skyrocket with those like Jipangu, already buying (BC BN B direct). The fundamental information lacking, trend following funds (those listed in the COT report as non-commercials) will soon join in and finally Joe and Jill Sixpack will buy.
It is hard for me to remain cynical if I accept the news from Midas, the Metropolecafe, and others as valid.
If we interpret Chapman's end of May deadline as also valid, then some degree of manipulation is disappearing. How can POG not go up?? Silver too, when yearly supply will prove short and demand is increasing?
Lamprey_65 sees last week as the calm before the storm and M.K. (IMHO) has been coming closer to stating outright that POG is going to explode soon. I believe he is always very careful, given his position, to avoid sensationalism in price predictions but I sense excitement.
Also, the T.A. guys have been admiring the gold charts so. with all things concidered, I definitely state that maybe, perhaps the time is near. Certainly, lower supply from drawdowns from additional direct buying can only be concealed for so long.
Lastly, I hope you're feeling like yourself today. I checked this morning in the mirror and confirmed that I am Rich today.
GO GATA BC BN B from CPM!
Rich
Tree in the Forest
(06/23/01; 14:18:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 56703)
High speed rail
http://www.i5ive.com/article.cfm/highway_railway_runway/62560
When discussing high speed rail systems, many would conclude that the US lags behind. Not so. In a list of the fastest rail systems, I found this:
Fastest rail vehicle
9,851km/h (Mach 8) USA, White Sands Missile Test Base, unmanned rocket sled, 1982.
Our Mach 8 "train" makes the US the fastest nation on rails! Now we just have to convince someone to ride 'er. Any volunteers? ;-)
lamprey_65
(06/23/01; 13:04:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 56702)
Gold Weekly
Was this week the calm before the storm?
Most probably.
Black Blade
(06/23/01; 12:35:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 56701)
Davis trying to spin out of energy crisis
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2001/06/23/MNN116485.DTL
Snippit:
Energy advisers have ruthless reputation. Rather than tackle the issues head-on, Davis did what he has always done: use consultants and polling data to try and navigate the minefield of public opinion to put himself in the best possible light and blame others for his problems. It's a game Bill Clinton perfected but at which the governor is a mere weekend hobbyist. Davis' decision to hire two former Clinton-Gore spin doctors to explain away his role in the energy crisis has been as predictable as this summer's threat of rolling blackouts. If only, in this case, he could have kept his critics in the dark.
When the energy crisis hit its peak this spring and Davis' popularity ratings began short-circuiting, he brought in Chris Lehane and Mark Fabiani, who had been as ubiquitous in the scandal-ridden Clinton administration as the stain on a certain intern's dress. Lehane and Fabiani are considered by the political cognoscenti as nothing less than ruthless, partisan hired guns, happy to attack anyone standing between them and a monthly paycheck.
Black Blade: There is opposition by other Democrat politicians and appointees to give the OK for the monthly fee of $30,000 each for Chris Lehane and Mark Fabiani. This is a good commentary on how politicians work against solving problems and point fingers for their own incompetence. Note that the article further states: "And State Controller Kathleen Connell, a fellow Democrat, has rightfully refused to pay state funds for the Clinton-Gore castoffs, because she said it is inconceivable that the two men are working on state policy -- not politics - - as required by law."
CoBra(too)
(06/23/01; 11:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 56700)
... And where will it go?
- YOU KNOW!
... cb2
CoBra(too)
(06/23/01; 11:47:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 56699)
Safe (monetary) Havens ...
The Mega Gypsy Capital of the globe will be hard pressed to find a safe haven outside of the US$ - as the derivative players seem to center on the one and only counter-party left (akin to theft of the taxpayer)GPM/Chase, the too big to sink.
Think twice as reality sets in and the US can't go on, exporting inflation to every nation and using up the savings and productivity of the rest of the world for ever.
This game is coming to an end ... even if it means less prosperity for all - as the blatant dis-equilibri in
buying power is there for all to see ... and while some pretend all is fine and clear sailing ahead, the ravished and diminished power of US manufacturing can't cope. It cries out loud for a lower US$ (hear the holler)and so do we, as we can see in the end the $ trending lower.
While derivative paper pricing kept commodities at bay, the day of the great reckoning may not be too far away ...
pray ...
See you then ... cb2
PS: - thoughts of an(-other) European (non-) socialist monster monster!
Black Blade
(06/23/01; 11:36:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 56698)
Judge halts oil and natural gas exploration off California
http://www.sacbee.com/news/calreport/calrep_story.cgi?story=N2001-06-22-1645-2.html
Snippit:
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- A federal judge halted oil and natural gas exploration off central California's coast Friday, saying the area can't be drilled or explored until the federal government studies the environmental impacts and the California Coastal Commission approves of the plan. The decision by U.S. District Court Judge Claudia Wilken is a major blow to petroleum companies that have left their leases dormant while natural gas and oil prices have neared all-time highs. It comes as California struggles through an energy crisis.
Black Blade: "…and they danced, sang, and played all summer…"
megatron
(6/23/01; 10:50:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 56697)
OldYeller
It is my contention that he is either the world's most dangerous criminal altruist or the world's biggest idiot.
If he actually believed his own statements about the gold standard practically everything he has done and said for 13 years is contrary to that philosophy. How could he delude himself about derivatives,productivity, and inflation, when a simpleton can see that the American/Canadian 'wealth' effect is nothing more than good, old, inflation? Has he ever walked through an office in the Midwest? Are hundreds of overweight people playing 'minesweeper' and 'solitaire' on 500Mhz computers, drinking coke and eating ridiculous types of food the 'productivity miracle' he talks about, and a shining beacon for the world to emulate? Will everyone living in a cookie cutter house with 3 of each appliance bought on credit bring us to a perfect state of being and an endlessly increasing business cycle? What an absolute buffoon,moron,----- or pathological liar.
canamami
(6/23/01; 10:17:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 56696)
Oro ....56693 ...gold titles and promises
I've sadly missed the great Oro/FOA debate, and can't comment on it.
Oro's post # 56693 just posted is a fine, fine piece of work...a clear and intelligible eye-opener and a point of departure for future discussion.
One question/point: Was the gold standard era-dollar (issued by either a private, public or quasi-public bank) a "title" to a specific piece of gold, or merely a promise to surrender a piece of gold from the "hoard", i.e., an undifferentiated pool of gold? In a sense, assessing such a dollar as a claim vis-a-vis gold, was there some assumption by the dollar-holder of investment risk by choosing to hold such dollars? Dollars were once issued by private banks (at least in Canada, but I assume elsewhere too). If the bank were unwise or unlucky, it would default. The holders of the bank's dollars would presumably claim in bankruptcy as unsecured creditors against the bank, and collect pro-rata from the residue of the estate. Thus, a gold "inflation" leading to default would simply be part of the accepted terms of holding that bank's dollars, i.e., a risk assumed by investing/saving in a bank which co-mingled investment and savings roles, and such "gold inflation" would not involve fraud per se. Also, there would not necessarily be a governmental act to excuse the bank from its legal liabilities; rather, the right possessed by the dollar holder was never to a specfic piece of gold, but to the bank's gold reserves in accordance with the contract with the bank and/or the governing bank regulations.
The above situation must be distinguished from two situations. The New Deal's negation of ANY right to gold for dollars was a violation and negation of existing legal rights, as was the rendering illegal of the enforcement of gold clauses (which suspension of rights was lifted in 1977). Also, in the private bank example above, one could conceivably have held title to a specific piece of or hoard of gold, for example in a security box. This would be segregated from the bank's general reserves, could not be invested by the bank and would return to the title holder in the event of the bank's bankruptcy. If such gold were dealt with illegally by the bank, the "dealers" would be criminally liable for theft, not just civilly liable for an unpaid debt. Further, if title were registered under a "chattel mortgage"-type situation where chattel mortgages are registered and publicly reviewable, the owner could also pursue that piece of gold against a subsequent holder or dealer, assuming the gold could be identified and traced.
Old Yeller
(6/23/01; 10:03:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 56695)
Many thanks,ORO
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html
ORO,Your efforts here are much appreciated,the multi-faceted nature of gold's enigmatic behaviour is made much more understandable through your contributions.
In regards to the three conditions for gold inflation,may I add a unique one that has become a central issue(pun intended).
The cult of personality that has developed,(though it appears to have peaked)around one Alan Greenspan.He appears to be a omnipotent force that has kept all the balls in the air a lot longer than logic would seem to dictate.Could anyone but Mr.G. get away with the kind of spin and misinformation foisted upon the unsuspecting masses of the world?That scenario is very hard to envision.
The Invisible Hand
(6/23/01; 10:00:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 56694)
property rights vs. honest money
sector,
You're saying that
Seeing GATA's name on his page represents tangible evidence of retreat from his usual ridicule of gold bugs and may signal a move by Reilly to the middle ground in the debate over manipulation, honest money and the coming turmoil
Sorry, you can't have honest money in a world where antitrust law is seen as one of the pillars of the world. Antitrust laws don't respect property rights. As one of the defendants put it in tempore non suspecto:
‘The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland.: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't , simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom, yet ‘too much’ competition is condemned as ‘cutthroat’. It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as ‘enlightened’ when initiated by the government. It is a world in which the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until they hear the judge's verdict – after the fact. (GREENSPAN, A., ‘Antitrust’, in: RAND, A., Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal, Signet Books, 1967, 63, p.63)
Or do antitrust law (and honest money) have priority over property rights? Sorry, without property rights, no other rights are possible. Antitrust laws should therefore be repealed immediately. Your linkage between antitrust law and honest money leads to the opposition between honest money on the one hand and property rights on the invisible hand. Under the rule of law this opposition can never arise.
ORO
(06/23/01; 09:15:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 56693)
Randy - the gold inflation
http://www.goldenbar.com/MainPages/GuestAnalysts/FeketeonKONDRATIEFF.htm
The drop in gold prices which we see today is related uniquely and exclusively to a gold inflation sourced where it has always come from - government, in the form of central banks.
The structure of "inflation" in gold markets is well documented in monetary history, so I will just note it in short.
1. Precondition: The most efficient way to carry and trade gold is in the form of title to quantities of gold in any of a number of depositories, sometimes known also as banks.
2. Government(s) establishes a mechanism allowing banks (or the government itself) to issue new titles to the same gold deposits which are already owned by others. The mechanism takes a number of forms, the most common of which are:
a. Promise of release from legal liability for the fraud inherent in the issue of multiple titles to the same gold once the fraud becomes publicly known.
b. If a free market fractional reserve banking system is in place, then the government establishes a central bank to run a reserve sharing operation which allows the banks to maintain par by gold redemption of notes (title) out of the common reserve. The reserve eventually runs out (or threatens to run out) and the circulating titles are no longer redeemable.
In both cases, the amount of gold substitutes (titles to gold rather than the gold itself) which are assumed to be good by most market participants increase as a result of this gold credit expansion. But in order for gold titles to be created through these systems, they must be borrowed into existence. Since a stable pricing relationship (goods and services relative to gold) and interest rate relationships existed prior to this government action, people would not have any incentive to lend or borrow any more (or less) than they are at the beginning of the process at the pre-existing market rate.
3. In order for that lending and borrowing to start, something new must happen to either lower interest rates, or some opportunity for a high return investment should be made available and the government(s) and the bankers would maintain an artificially low interest rate similar to that prevailing before the opportunity arose. Given a government's guarantee to the banker, the most likely and historically common cause for low interest rates was the bankers' and governments' artificial reduction in interest rates upon the initiation of the gold inflation arrangement.
The only other cause of gold inflation ever recorded in history was the influx of gold from the Portuguese and Spanish looting of America. The first wave registered in the 13% drop in gold purchasing power in Europe between 1508 and 1523 (2.3% annual "inflation" rate), then with a second wave about 1531 to 1552 of 22-23% (1% annualized "inflation" rate), then a 15% drop in gold purchasing power over the period 1560 to 1607 (0.3% "inflation" rate). From that period through 1790 gold purchasing power remained rather stable with no more than a 10% rise or fall in purchasing power. War spending in British and French territories (because of Napoleon's and England's wars depleting resources and increasing spending of gold hoards), resulting in the "continental" in America, and the assignat in France, which pushed gold purchasing power down by 10% through 1813 after Napoleon's defeat, from which time till Victoria's death in 1901, gold's purchasing power rose 11% - back within the historical trend.
Last century:
Local gold inflations were common enough throughout the periods, but none lasted very long, nor did any have a substantial effect on gold purchasing power around the world till 1913, when the US opened the Federal Reserve and rapidly devalued the value of the dollar (and of gold to which it was tied at par) by 55% in all of 7 years. From that point till the dollar devaluation by FDR (a break of par) gold gained back the whole of the lost purchasing power and then an extra 20%. From this point, till the dollar broke par with gold in 1968 and then was officially taken off the gold exchange standard in 1971, it lost 69% of its purchasing power.
Purchasing power grew back to peak at 180% of its 1913 value and 150% of its 1933 purchasing power. Since which time gold lost 80% of its purchasing power, leaving it at 20% above its purchasing power in 1971 despite "official" gold stock outside central banks going up 2.6 fold and gold production rates up by 80%, and gold reserves having doubled.
In short, the experience of this last century is quite unique.
In any case, the gold market undergoes inflation only under 3 conditions:
1. Gold in substantial quantity is within government reach, in central banks or in banks within its jurisdiction.
2. Moral hazard is provided by government to banks on release from their liabilities.
3. Interest rates are dictated at below market rates by a central bank or government.
These are the ONLY conditions under which this happens.
When one holds a gold denominated contract, one is not expecting it to be gold, nor is it taking the place of gold. It is simply the most efficient way to denominate the contract.
The gold debt contracts are never replacements or substitutes for gold. They are a stake in an business investment, a house (note whom it is that holds the title to your mortgaged house), someone's future income. That these replace gold ownership because of their denomination in gold is a ludicrous idea. It is simply a portfolio preference between investments and physical savings.
When viewing the competition to gold in the physical savings arena, we see lumber, oil, goods inventories, houses, furniture, autos, canned goods, collectibles, antiques, art, as we go from commercial to small scale personal physical savings and large scale personal physical savings. Another word for them is "hoarding".
Antal Fekete of "Whither Gold" fame, gave a good rendition of it in his article in the URL above.
Chris Powell
(06/23/01; 08:58:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 56692)
Barry Riley column about gold and GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/813
GATA's fighting gold's battle, and
nobody else is.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
sector
(06/23/01; 08:40:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 56691)
@Invisible Hand...Barry Riely Proves Infamy is Better than Nofamy
GATA gets a mention from Barry Reilly's nemesis "Fringe Freddy". Seems GATA has become the talk of the UK towns of late. Must be some new recruits over there.
Reilly is a perfect phase gauge...always at the low cycle when everyone of importance is at the high. Recall his "Reginald Duhm" piece last year chiding folks that doomsayers were blowhards...NASDAQ was 4500 at the time. Bit of egg on his grey Hush Puppies from that one I suppose.
Seeing GATA's name on his page represents tangible evidence of retreat from his usual ridicule of gold bugs and may signal a move by Reilly to the middle ground in the debate over manipulation, honest money and the coming turmoil.
auspec
(06/23/01; 08:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 56690)
Rich Rich Rich
So it shall be! Per your post that my "composit makeup may sometimes also include other well known posters from many internet sites and some government agencies." I don't know about any possible imposters from other internet sites, but you have discerned correctly about 'government agencies', job well done. I work for the Bureau of ATF&G, and now that cover is blown. Also have close CIA links with Robert Chapman. Now for the official proclamation: You {all} are hereby ordered to give up your A and your G, sent them to me care of CPM. I mean EVERY posthole contents and every last drop. You are welcome to keep your F and your T, gvmt is certainly not all bad, and besides you are likely to soon need your Fs.
Now moving on to a less serious topic. Your post # 56678 says "Jipangu BC BN and Buy Direct." BC means?? BN means Buy Now. And Buy Direct paints quite the picture, no? This leaves out the predatory BBs!!!! No confiscatory hedging games such as was perpetrated on Ashanti. This is a major step in the right direction. Bill Murphy {Midas} stated 10% of the next 12 months production has been sold/secured, and that is just for starters {imho only}. Think this won't snowball? It was easy to understand the 'Big Buying' going on, but more difficult to understand where product was coming from until 'the next 12 months production' came into view. Voila! BUY DIRECT!!! YESSSSSSS!!
A soon to be ultra successful auspec{ulator}
The Invisible Hand
(06/23/01; 08:19:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 56689)
New UK price-fixing bill
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1398000/1398535.stm
This dates already from last Wednesday. As antitrust laws are immoral (against private defendants), I had hesitated before mentioning it. But since Barry Riley has demonstrated this morning that GATA doesn't matter, here's another weapon which GATA could consider in the … UK.
Clampdown on price fixers unveiled
Trade watchdogs are to be given extra powers, and price fixers face jail sentences, in a drive to raise the performance of the UK economy, according to the government's programme unveiled on Wednesday.
The Enterprise Bill, trailed in the Queen's Speech, would see the government hand responsibility for deciding on "most" mergers to the Office of Fair Trading and Competition Commission.
And the legislation would see members of cartels risk criminal prosecution, and help victims of market fixing to win compensation.
…
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(06/23/01; 08:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 56688)
Black Blade , The "Slow Burn" (#56685)
A partial, personal Wish List.
True "The 1970's oil shocks were over as suddenly as they appeared.", yet this time IMO the prices realized will not retreat much. A new bottom has been established. This is good. Cheap, "abundant" energy has had great hidden costs such as the "grasshopperism" at home and military intervention abroad. I eagerly await the opportunity for societal and political growth this "energy crisis" presents for the USA.
Grasshopperism nationwide is displayed by the sheer ignorance citizens have toward energy production. They do not care as long as they have it at a price they are comfortable with. Emphasis on conservation merely maintains the status quo.
Crude oil is much more valuable to society for industrial, agricultural, and pharmaceutical endeavors than popping pistons up and down in an auto engine. Self suficiency in domestic oil supply should be a patriotic national goal. I would welcome American mass transport in the form of Bullet Trains to replace jetliners and big rigs for transcontinental travel/shipping. Jetliners and long haul trucking are too expensive in terms of the inefficient/ill advised use of oil. I look forward to the day when I can take a US bullet train from Norfolk to Long Beach and all points between, at a net travel speed of over 300 mph, in the comfort of a mile long train in which to walk and meet people, to truly enjoy time economical travel. I grow weary of masquerading as freight trapped in a cushioned seat sitting endlessly on a runway, or circling an airport for permission to land, or having to land elsewhere only to be bussed to where I should have landed, and then there are the cancellations.
I look forward to the day when owning a car is a decision of personal choice for most americans rather than a necessity. I remember the sidewalk and the corner store.
As oil and NG become increasingly expensive and less reliable, attitudes will change towards nuclear power to substantially fill the void. Intensive research may bring existing peripheral energy technologies to parity with oil, or better yet discoveries of new sources such as fusion. I look forward to buying a home that is completely off grid, forever, by virtue of its own fusion reactor. Yet without the pain of the "energy crisis" it will never happen.
An end to US military intervention solely for securing foreign oil supplies would be welcomed. This would allow US resources in people and material to concentrate upon investing in infrastructure and self defense. To lead the world by example, rather than by force.
If the "energy crisis" leads us closer to these things, then I say it is long overdue.
The Invisible Hand
(6/23/01; 03:53:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 56687)
"Currency turmoil . . . bullion banks melted down . . . hedge books in chaos."
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3LIBY5AOC&live=true
'The Long View: That old-time religion' by Barry Riley in today's FT
Belgian
(6/23/01; 03:00:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 56686)
With a grain of salt !
Retreating money from the SM, seeks refuge in bonds. Interest rates decline and are a Gold accumulation climate (Credit : Antal Fekete).
While the very visible Dow Jones simulates strenght, technical rebounds are organised in the majority of stocks (A/D-line) and avoiding any sign of global panic. An ideal climate for silent and very cheap gold accumulation and reorganisation. Intraday POG behaviour is suggesting that it gets more difficult to hide the moves. I suspect that the core goldproducers have used the hedging-method as a weapon to take revenge on the disturbing CBs goldsales that started 7 years ago. Weak producers, who couldn't afford overstreched hedging, put themselves in jeopardy. The hedge organisers knew very well how far they could go with the BBs on their side. Saudis also dominate the POO as swing producer. And if it gets too difficult to line up the dissidents...they organised an oil flood as punishment and way to regain control. Saddam used a less subtle way of handling his demand for a 21$ POO.
Was the 253$ POG bottom, relevant to the perspective that core hedgers had this bottomline in mind, serving their plan ?
If the goldproducers scratch the backs of the BBs, who profited from the CBs gold optimization...then the BBs will have to produce and organize a proportional favor to the miners. And in the going the CBs learned their lesson ?
Black Blade
(6/23/01; 02:30:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 56685)
Energy Storm on the Horizon - The "Slow Burn"
Like dogs fighting over scraps of grease and gristle, the energy starved regions of the US are going to fight over the remaining available energy supply. President George W. Bush recently said that the current energy crisis is the worst since the 1970's. Ex-President James Carter said that it was worse under his watch. What is the truth here. The sad truth is that the oil shocks of the 1970's were nothing more than a bump in the road by comparison to what is happening today. Jimmy Carter's presidency was plagued by indecisiveness and incompetence. George W. Bush's presidency is plagued by trying to please everyone, and he grossly underestimates the problem at hand. For that reason alone he may eventually come to be known as the Herbert Hoover of our generation.
In the 1970's the world had ample supply of energy. There was more than enough hydrocarbon supply in inventory to satisfy the addiction of Hydrocarbon Man. The oil shocks were purely political in nature. The oil shocks suddenly appeared in response to the west's support for Israel during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, and during the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The 1970's oil shocks were over as suddenly as they appeared.
Today we face an even greater energy crisis. This energy crisis does not appear so severe on the surface as it is a "Slow Burn." In other words it is like the fabled frog in a pot of water slowly coming to a boil. The energy crisis today is more fundamental than a few gas lines due to the Middle-Eastern OPEC countries turning off the oil spigot. These shortages, though for now less acute, are more likely to plunge the US and eventually the entire world into a severe economic recession because the shortages stem from intractable physical limits that make them more fundamental and long-term.
There are already visible cracks in the system. Over the next decade we will see that we are unable to increase the hydrocarbon supply enough to meet the demands of a rapidly growing world economy. The most promising growth engine for many has been the advent of the "New Economy." We saw rapid expansion of the Internet, high technology, computer sales, telephony, expansion of the communications grid (especially fiber optics), etc. That requires "cheap energy" to fuel such an expansion as we have seen over the last decade.
This is occurring at the same time as the leftists have grabbed onto the environmental bandwagon. The most likely hydrocarbon targets are off-limits by virtue of dictatorial edict (executive orders). There is a push by European countries to get the US to sign on to the Kyoto Accords. Interestingly no European country (other than Romania) is willing to sign on first as an example. Where is the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, etc. Talk is cheap. Isn't it interesting that the US does a better job at cleaning up the environment and has a greater amount of wilderness land set aside as a percentage than any European country?
The energy supply-demand equation still looks quite grim. Despite a near zero growth in the US and Japan, energy prices remain well above the last 5 and 10 year averages. This will only progressively get worse going forward. I have already posted on the Drill-Rig and personnel problems in the energy industry. Wages in the oil patch are pitifully low and attracting experienced workers who have been through the "Boom-Bust" nature of the energy economy will not return for another go. Now recruiters wait outside prisons to hire felons. Professional staff are also hard to find. It is easier for geologists and engineers to pursue careers elsewhere for better wages and career stability. A client recently told me that some oil rig workers have a difficult time communicating as English is at best a second language. Despite record drilling for oil and gas there has been no noticeable increase in production in spite of improved technologies. Oil and gas production remains in a 30 year downtrend and as demand increases prices increase. Conservation can only go so far.
Over the next decade, the needs of the growing world will require a minimum of a nearly 25% increase in energy production ( and more likely an increase of more than 75%). Oil is expected to account for an ever smaller portion of the world's total energy needs, however, oil supply will need to increase as well, perhaps more than 20 million barrels to 100 million barrels per day. Many of today's oil fields are in various stages of decline. The short-term answer is that the Middle-East will have to cough up another 2 million barrels per day. That's a stretch as over the last couple of years of higher prices the Middle-East OPEC countries are struggling to keep up current production and production capacity has at barely increased. And what if large Third World countries such as Russia, China, India, etc. begin to enter into the 20th century in terms of industrialization and demand more hydrocarbon supply?
Natural gas is cleaner burning and is the fuel of choice for power generation. We are facing extreme shortages of natural gas and therefore we will face severe shortages of electricity as well. Natural gas and electricity shortages are inevitable. Over 65% of natural gas targets in the US are off-limits. This further restricts available supply. Coal is a possibility, however, coal is a "dirty" fuel. No new coal power plants are likely anytime soon unless "clean" burning coal technology becomes economically viable. Hydro-electric power is variable due to weather. Currently, California may get some NW hydropower and be in a fix come late summer. The NW had better pray that it rains this summer and snows hard this winter - then again, if that happens more energy will be consumed by those keeping warm. Weather dependent solar and wind generated power are unlikely to contribute much energy. Nuclear energy has too many foes due to past accidents in the USSR and Three Mile Island.
The energy crisis is in reality an economic crisis. During the 1970's oil shocks people were scared and inflation shook the World. People wore WIN buttons like garlic to ward off vampires. Gold and silver prices rocketed skyward as people were looking for safe harbor - any safe harbor. People were scared and rightfully so. Why not now? Why isn't the same thing happening now? Simply put - it is the "Slow Burn" - the frog in the pot of water coming to a slow boil. In short, get a lot of blankets, batteries, hope for the best and get prepared. I suspect that most here are prepared to some degree. Who needs apocalyptic Y2K scenarios when you can have the real deal.
- Black Blade
Peter Asher
(6/23/01; 01:52:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 56684)
fwd.
Here's a good post from yesterday @ GE.
Politics is inseparable from PMs
(ross) Jun 22, 09:56
In fascist regimes the wealthy families who control the
central banks and industry also appoint the leaders
(presidents and prime ministers)
In western democratic regimes they usually appoint two,
and then allow the people to select (vote) the president/prime minister from those two choices.
Often even this process is merely cosmetic, since the
voting/electing organization is also owned by them, and
in some cases the judiciary is indirectly or directly
working for them.
A socialist or communist regime is brought in, in cases where a major shift or increase in control is required,
or the take-over of another nation for its mineral
wealth and potential development. The population whose
homeland is required is encouraged to leave, or allowed
to build up a rebel or `liberation army'. The IMF and
World bank are used to funnel money into the neighboring governments to supply arms to both sides (the neighboring government officers can take a nice profit in the process). By supplying both sides they buy in advance the loyalty of the winning faction, for the period after the re-organization is complete.
Forced relocation of huge populations is thus achieved.
The international `media' is used to portray this as the
movement of refugees as a result of `ethnic or religious differences'. Humanitarian organizations are sent in to set up camps to contain the herds while the new system is put in place. Finally an `International' peace-keeping force puts everything in place, and the
industrial and banking giants set up the new regime with a new mining operation at the heart of the new `nation'.
The next stage will be to oust the temporary (communist
or socialist or liberation) government and introduce something similar to a western democratic regime (as
above) under initial guardianship of an international
peace-keeping military. policing and civilian
(bureaucratic) force.
IMHO the economic outlook for PMs must be seen in the
context of the world politics of this new century, not
the last one. The move towards world government, begun
more than a hundred years ago is approaching fruition.
(unless it is stopped).
These processes are taking place all over the world right now. Central Africa is one example.They all involve minerals, gold, diamonds, and other underground wealth. And sadly they all involve human suffering But the processes take time are far from complete
Gold and silver have to be a central part of the equation. To minimize the chance of an underground economy emerging as a threat to the dictators, people will have to have paper and plastic (the value of which can be continually controlled) instead of real money. I can only see the worldwide confiscation ONCE THE MANY GOVERNMENTS HAVE
BEEN COERCED INTO ACTING IN CONCERT IN THIS RESPECT.
Therefore together with other considerations I am now
expecting the suppression to continue for a while until by the IMF etc of mineral rich nations, ownership
re-distribution and consolidation of the PM mining and
production. More will have to be bankrupted and taken
over first before the confiscation and then rise of the price.
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