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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/23/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Chris Powell (11/23/01; 23:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 65803)
Thank you so much, USAGold
Michael, thank you so much for your insightful
and kind observations here tonight and your
kindess toward GATA and me personally. It has
been a long, hard week, but, thanks to you and
a few others, not without hope and encouragement.
Sometimes we are a bit lost or unsure, but then
there is always the lighthouse of this forum. It
has become a big part of my work and life and
has given me confidence that, while our strategy
will not always be right, we ARE right always to
try to do something for gold and for a cause that
is bigger than gold, bigger even than all the money
in the world.


uponroof (11/23/01; 22:26:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 65802)
Message from A Chinese Gold Forum
Interesting that she also knows of POG manipulation.
****************************************************

to :uponroof

I was a Commodities Broker & Spec.trader working for E.F. Hutton during the hot metals markets, and during the Hunt debacle in Silver. My specialty was Crude Oil but I traded Gold .on the Comex and in Hong Kong. What you said about
the Central Bank manipulation is true. There is a consistent lid on the price now because of the general perception in America that higher Gold (or Crude)
prices indicate "demon Inflation" and would scare the public. I have heard rumours about the short position, but there was some question about Leases to offset and I never pursued it.

China's entry into the Gold market is pretty exciting, and I'm all for it! I think it was very smart of China also, to increase Euro reserves to an estimated 10%, and it agrees with my evaluation of what is likely to happen to the dollar ,at least short to medium term. Beyond that ??,

I picked up a few gold stocks on a dip recently, so I hope Gold goes to the moon! When the Gold market moves, there's nothing like it. I hopef you are right about the short squeeze! As we used to say in the pit--"Closed, locked,
limit up--with pools! ;0)


uponroof (11/23/01; 22:14:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 65801)
China Forms 'China Gold Association'
http://search.chinadaily.com.cn/news/2001-11-24/45081.html
"...It is a breakthrough for China's gold sector to set up such a co-ordinated and co-operative industrial structure,'' said Cheng Fumin, newly selected chairman of the CGA and general manager of the China National Gold Corporation.

He said the new scheme will meet the requirements of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and use market principles to manage and supervise the business operation of gold enterprises. China is to be formally inducted as a member of the WTO on December 11..."
*******************************************

Next month China formally inducted into the WTO....next year the CGA quietly inducted into the gold cartel?

I wonder if Mr Fumin has any connections at GS or JPM? If not, it won't be long before he does. Or perhaps the WGC will educate them on the worldly matters of trading gold....out of the kindness of their hearts of course.
*********************************************

A lot of unrest out there. A few years ago North America under Clinton and Gore looked to be a regulatory nightmare. With South Africa and now parts of South America in turmoil North American miners are coming to the fore again. Bush's changing of regulatory mining laws did not hurt. Who knows, if the US suffers a dollar collapsing depression, American mines may become the darlings of the world. Now that would be irony.


Waverider (11/23/01; 22:02:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65800)
OOps - that's "Saugages"
triple tasking...typing, spelling, and laughing

Waverider (11/23/01; 21:59:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65799)
Gold covered sauges???
Yikes - I wouldn't know what to think of a man who gave me gold covered saugages instead of flowers...jokes best left to the imagination! Best laugh I've had all day!

Black Blade (11/23/01; 21:59:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 65798)
Waverider - DROOY merger?

There were some rumblings that HGMCY might try a hostile bid for DROOY (or the JCI group for that matter). That was a rumor that I had heard a few months ago from a couple of SA geologists who were on assignment in Nevada at the time.

There is certainly no love lost between HGMCY CEO Swanepoel and the Kebbles (DROOY management). This became more apparent when HGMCY bid Randfontein out from under the DROOY acquisition attempt. A merger of HGMCY and DROOY would make strategic sense for land position, but I don't see it happening. Goldfields (GOLD) might be interested though. I think that HGMCY and other SA miners are trying to expand into investments outside of SA, partly for reduction of political risk and partly for diversification.

BTW, there have even been rumblings that HGMCY or AU would probably swallow up Randgold (RANGY) for their Morila mine interests in Mali. However, this is all just speculation and the SA mining world is one giant "Rumor Mill." I think that we will see rampant consolidation in the Gold mining industry over the next several months.

Cheers!

- Black Blade


Black Blade (11/23/01; 21:43:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65797)
Restaurant puts gold sausages on the menu
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_456585.html?menu=

Snippit:

A restaurant in Duesseldorf has put gold-covered sausages on its menu. It is a special variety of the popular regional 'Currywurst'. The restaurant owner claims eating gold is healthy. In addition to traditional tomato sauce and curry powder, the sausage comes with a piece of 18 carat leaf gold on its skin. Diners at Curry restaurant pay 7.50 marks (about £2.40) for the unusual dish. Restaurant manager Juergen Mauermann claims eating gold is very healthy. He said: "It has been done in Greece for hundreds of years. "One of our customers always brought in his own gold and asked us to cover his food with it, that's how we got the idea."

Black Blade: Just when you thought that you heard it all, something like this comes along. I know that there's a joke in there somewhere, but probably not appropriate for this forum. Who says that Gold is not consumed.


Waverider (11/23/01; 21:28:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 65796)
Horatio
Horatio - thank you for your insightful portrayal of the situation in Africa. I fled Abidjan days before the coup d'etat 2 years ago and experienced a glimpse of the problems there. If I'm reading you correctly, one should be extremely cautious in investing in SA gold mines. Would you suggest to get out now? I'm in Durban which is highly leveraged to the POG, but is the political situation too risky, too volatile to wait for a move in POG? Thoughts from others also welcome - Black Blade - I remember you posting info. previously on potential mergers of DROOY with others. Thoughts?
Thank you and cheers,
Waverider


megatron (11/23/01; 20:58:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65795)
RPowell
they are like people trapped on a tiny island with the water rising. they ain't goin' very far, and the options are quickly runnin' out.

Black Blade (11/23/01; 20:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 65794)
Saudi Arabia Faces Recession as Oil Prices Decline
http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies&middle=ad_frame2_economies&s=AO.p_nxS7U2F1ZGkg

Snippit:

Riyadh, Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, facing rising unemployment and a population boom, may slip into recession next year because of a drop in oil prices and output, economists said.

Economic decline -- it would be Saudi Arabia's sixth recession in nearly 20 years -- would only add to the 15 percent unemployment rate and put further pressure on the government of the ruling al-Saud family to sell off state assets and introduce more competition into the economy, analysts said.

Of more than 100,000 school-leavers and graduates coming onto the job market each year, only a quarter are finding work, Bourland said. More than 350,000 young Saudis are jobless. ``There is a problem of skills and expectations,'' said Turki al-Saudairi, editor-in-chief of al-Riyadh newspaper. ``Saudis expect more money than expatriates and don't necessarily have the skills to do the job.'' At 3.5 percent a year, Saudi Arabia's population growth rate is one of the highest in the world. With almost 60 percent of Saudis under the age of 19, the population is also one of the youngest. The booming population and slow growth caused GDP per capita to fall to $8,000 last year from $28,600 in 1981, according to a U.S. State Department report.


Black Blade: A low POO could likely breed more Osama Bin Laden's. It could also lead to the fall of the House of Saud and usher in yet another Fundamentalist Islamic regime. If that happens we will see the Global Economy crash to levels not seen since the Great Depression. "Interesting Times"


R Powell (11/23/01; 20:16:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65793)
Horatio/ bond market
The very recent movements in the bond markets have been much talked about on many of the discussions I listen to (lurker status only). No one seems to have a definitive answer as to what is spooking the bonds but all seem to be in agreement that something substantial is happening or about to happen and it will not be pleasant news when it appears. Many are watching this wondering where huge sums are money are heading. There is also some speculation of debt, currency and/or derivatives problems. Many are looking toward next week for an answer. Please keep us posted if you hear any more. It feels ominous but certainly isn't stopping the patriotic buying of stocks at these wonderfully low prices. Don't let that foolishness of P/E ratios scare you. This is a new economy where such antiquated values no longer matter.
This is, of course, not investment advice. No really, this is NOT investment advice.
Rich


R Powell (11/23/01; 19:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 65792)
Another thought on POG control exposure
I just had an image of Larry Kudlow squirming uncomfortably in his chair, blinking uncontrolably and turning to Maria saying, "You mean, all this time, the ESF or this so-called Plunge Protection Gang was selling gold at select moments with the express purpose of intentionally misleading the American public as to the existence of inflation and the value of our own currency? I don't know if I can really believe that happened."
*****
Do you believe, Larry! Do you believe!!??


R Powell (11/23/01; 19:48:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 65791)
Correction
Last sentence in previous post should read
....thoughts as to how THE EXPOSURE OF government price shenanigans....
It has something to do, I believe, with the signal from the brain relaying the message at the proper pace, one that the typing fingers can deal with.
Rich


R Powell (11/23/01; 19:38:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65790)
Manipulation exposure
Many thoughts come to mind concerning exactly what would happen to the gold market if/when there arrives a general awareness of government involvement in gold price fixing for these many years.
The first thought is that gold would be front page news, lots of exposure. This alone might spark wholesale buying and selling and thus, at the least, increased price volatility. This would creat conditions under which any price control would become difficult. How many would buy simply because gold is in the news?
If, upon exposure, the government simply officially "fixes" the POG once again, then the speculative aspect of the gold market disappears and gold would be sought as a safe haven, store of wealth by those who know that any and all price fixing schemes are temporary. However, this fixing would immediately negate any further possible gains from all outstanding long or short positions (not to mention the mess of settling all those past and present transactions). There can be no speculation without price fluxuations. Wouldn't a government price fix on gold essentially be a return to a gold standard? Can the POG be fixed without the value of the fiat becoming also fixed??
I don't believe that speculators would believe that the POG has become mute but it would send all speculation into the only game that would be left, buying and holding physical. It would creat a mania, no?
Next option, general awareness of government involement to regulate the POG and their sucessful management of POG after the initial media attention wanes. Now what?
I believe the smart money would buy into gold knowing that all price manipulation eventually fails. Isn't this now happening? IMHO, yes, but with the added attention and the public awareness that this has been and still is a semi-controled market, would there be more or fewer participants?
Speculators are like sharks in a feeding frenzy. They would be, at the least watchful but again, this situation would probably stimulate tremendous physical buying.
I'm still pondering and supposin but haven't come up with any thoughts as to how government price shenanigans would adversely affect the POG (or silver too!!)
Happy weekend!
Rich


Horatio (11/23/01; 18:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 65789)
Zimbabwe and S.Africa
Zinmabwe is in chaos ,the gummint is threatening to nationalize everything,inflation running rampant and food shortages loom.This is the a small glimpse into the looking glass for S.Africa.This whole hedging mess was started by the Brits trying to get thier wealth out of S.Africa before the s--t hits the fan.Who can blame them?Sell the gold forward get the cash out of the country .Some mines have sold 10 years gold production forward.Now Barrack comes to thier aid .THe deal is swap some Barrack stock for Anglo then transfer all hedges to Anglo .Barrack gets out of its hedges and banks get Anglos assets in the ground as security.This should be the final event before Mandelas communist cronies try to do what is being done in Zimbabwe formally(Rhodesia).White Farmers are being thrown off the farms and land is being "redistributed".
The same treatment is in store for white gold mine owners.Tha S.African gumment threatened mine owners if they shut down,the mines will be "redistributed" to the mine workers.what would you do if you owned a mine in S.Africa?
I would do what they are doing.NO 1.devalue the Rand so as to lower mine wage costs.2.Borrow gold from any bank willing to lend and sell it forward and spirit the cash out of the country.3.When currency controls are established merge the mine with an outside the country mine so as to facilate an internal transfer of assets.The internal transfer may include selling gold forward ,taking on outside liabilities in exchange for outside assets.
No 3 Knowing this, outside traders like Sachs and Morgan try to take advantage of the situation .As long as gold is under control its safe to trade dirivatives betting against a rise in interest rates.Sachs and Morgan are money whores and don't care which way gold goes as long as they are on the profitable side of the trade.(I guess thats a complement)
Something happined last week in the bond markets that tells me its no longer safe to play dirivatives betting on stable interest rates going downward.5 and 10 year bonds reversed themselves telling me the play is no longer on lower rates and GOLD prices being under control.Things are going into reverse and so will GOLD prices as the price of gold is a factor in interest rates. All bets are off now.The process now calls for selling stocks buying puts and selling calls .Same for interest rate indexes.Reverse for GOLD.
The process has started and will build. Look for Sach and Morgan to reverse trading actions.I don't know how they will get out of the hedges on gold since it is a physical commodity,but they will call on congress to help'since they are willing to take political money from wall st.. PAYBACK is going to be HELL for the politicians and the taxpayer.


USAGOLD (11/23/01; 17:18:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 65788)
Chris, here are some addditional considerations that were supposed to be tacked onto the previous. Fortunately, I saved this one in word procesing. . .
By the way, sorry for errors here and in the previous. This was done hastily. . .I think the logic comes through OK. . .

A few considerations:

1. The fact of the matter is that intervention on the part of the government in the gold market is nothing new. It's been going on for much of this century. From FRoosevelt's time up until the mid-1970s, it was an open manipulation and everyone (at least in the financial world) knew the government was involved in restraining the price. The reason I attempted to expose the process in the book is that so many believed the nonsense perpetrated by the bullion banks and the central banks with the help of the press that there were "fundamental" and "natural" reasons for gold being in a downtrend -- ranging from central bank sales (because they didn't need it) to better mining and processing techniques and a dozen other nefarious reasons, none of which had anything whatsoever to do with the real reason it was being managed -- the fact that it was definitely straining to go up. The fact that it wants to go-up against the currency is implied by the manipulation itself. One doesn't leash a dog because it is civilized -- quite to the contrary. And why has gold been straining to go up, because governments and their central banks have been doing yeoman's work to undermine the currency through outrageous spending programs, the deficit financing schemes and outright money printing. I thought it important to expose the reasons -- mostly political -- why gold might be under management. Those reasons ironically are the best I can offer for owning gold whether or not the price is "manipulated" to use the GATA verb. The fact that gold was being manipulated at $35 for over a decade in the 1960s did not keep astute investors -- both individuals and nation states -- who understood what was going on from purchasing it and ultimately making up to 25 times their money once the manipulation was broken. It shouldn't stop investors now.

2. We should not be afraid of the truth. It is the truth and its exposure which has brought us to where we are -- at a legitimate turning point where the long hold on gold is finally being broken. It is being broken because a even greater number of gold investors both in the mines and in the metal itself see that the manipulation of the price has benefited one group of investors at the expense of the others, and this more than any other reason is why the judge in Massachusetts should let the case be heard. Why should the ordinary investor/consumer and mining companies both in the United States and overseas suffer because a group of favored, baggy-pants bullion bankers have loans out that would be undermined by a rising price? It goes to the very basis of fairness that has made it possible for Americans to out-produce, out-market, and out-profit every other country on earth individually. Should all that be sacrificed to keep the price of gold down? An increasing segment of the financially aware public is saying "No" and putting pressure on not only the government but the mining companies -- and it is there -- in putting the pressure on the mining companies where the rubber meets the road. Do you think that stockholder awareness didn't play a prominent role in motivating that little meeting between Robert de Crespigny, Pierre Lassonde and Wayne Murdy's at Michelle Ashby's annual get-together in downtown Denver? The meeting that shook the gold market to its foundations according to several commentators over the last week or so.

3. At USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals we have not been afraid to make people aware of the truth, and it hasn't hurt our sales in the least. What we lose in unsophisticated trend investors, we gain in real investors who understand these things for what they are. And these people are the ones who know how to gain and keep capital. The problem as we point out relentlessly at our site and in all our publications is that investors who try to call the breakout date (and play the futures/options markets or leverage to capitalize on it) usually lose. If you own the metal, there is no time fuse, so you can afford to wait. Gold occupies only one aspect of this individual's overall portfolio. He is not dominated by gold. He dominates it. If you believe that the paper money game could implode/explode on a moment's notice, you are in full agreement with the philosophy of USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals and probably have anywhere from 10% to 50% of your assets allocated to take advantage of it --depending upon your level of concern. More than likely, you fully understand why you have hard metal in hand -- that it is primarily an insurance policy against currency deterioration and not a speculation. However, if gold were to suddenly break out and double, I don't believe we would find you complaining. 90% of the people who call themselves Centennial Precious Metals clients own gold because they believe the system could breakdown, that the manipulation is an indication that the system is in trouble, and portfolio protection as a result is an absolute necessity. Those who fear that the exposure of manipulation will harm gold probably also see it as a short term holding for profit, or are holding stocks which have been mortally wounded by the manipulation. When you have a long term view of gold, you understand the statement in the book, ". . .these policies have never kept gold from achieving its desired level vis a vis the dollar. They have simply been delaying actions just prior to full retreat. Essentially the war was lost before it was even fought." So we continue with these formalities and even the advent of the cheap derivative -- and the lack of government regulation thereof -- will be enough to keep gold from its appointed destination. Gold remains an "interesting opportunity."

4. In my considerations mentioned earlier, I came to the conclusion that investor and public awareness of the situation was preferrable to leaving the situation the way it was and apparently people like you, Chris, Bill Murphy, Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe and James Turk made the same decision. We certainly can't win this battle by keeping people in the dark. In fact no progress can be made against those who control gold by keeping it under wraps. The control would only continue with most investors totally unaware. At the very least, we can keep people from buying into hedged mining companies who are part and parcel of the manipulation. We can also keep people, as you mention, from throwing their money away in the futures’ markets. Ultimately, you would think that the Exchanges themselves would see the damage this has done to their business -- to the exchange itself. In fact some enterprising young doctoral candidate might be able to build a case that gold manipulation has injure the concept of investing in commodities in general. If gold can be manipulated why not soybeans, corn, wheat.. . . . . . .and if any of those, what happened to the free market? No, shine a light on it, and let the world make a decision as to what it all means.


tedw (11/23/01; 17:14:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65787)
Thanks
Megatron

Thank you for responding to my query regarding siler miners. Your kindness is appreciated.



USAGOLD (11/23/01; 17:12:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 65786)
Chris: Let the chips fall where they may. . . . .
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B0B0057F309?OpenDocument
Chris, you and your correspondents raise an interesting and important question. I remember not that long ago a gold bear laughing as he told me derisively that the GATA people were shooting themselves in the foot by exposing the potentiality that gold was manipulated, as it would play into the manipulators hands -- another victory for the forces on the other side.

I don't see it that way. I first confronted the question back in 1996 when I was writing The ABCs of Gold Investing. I asked some clients I trusted and respected -- some deep thinkers -- whether or not I should expose my concerns and they all basically said the same thing: "Go for it and let the chips fall where they may." I tried to stay away from the word "manipulation" and talked instead about "interventions." I still prefer that word because manipulation conveys a sense that nothing can be done about it. That nefarious forces are at work -- outside the invisible hand of the market, or contravening political forces -- all powerful forces that cannot be beat. Nothing could be further from the truth. A quote from Margaret Mead used by an editorialist got my attention the other day. Though I can't remember the exact quote it had to do with whether or not an individual could make a difference in a complex culture. Her conclusion was that not only was it possible, it was the only way anything ever changed -- with one person. So it is with exposing gold manipulation. It is probable that through market forces -- some of the very powerful one's in motion now (and as pointed out by Tim Wood -- reference above) -- gold would have been set free anyway. But by exposing the process, we hasten the day of the rollover -- the day gold is set free whether or not the legal case proves it was intentional. A large segment of the group interested in gold now knows the signs to be read. These will be able to anticipate the changes to come in the gold market and take advantage of them. We have come a long way down that road -- the road of knowledge -- and GATA has played a prominent role in getting us there. None of this has been a mistake, Chris, and I doubt very much that the people on the other side of the fence can possibly feel comfortable now that so many in the financial community know that something funny is going on in the gold market. They can't be happy at all about the antipathy against hedging building in the mining community for example. It could come back to haunt them.

Interventions can become the subject of intervention themselves. Intervention also implies a market factor. Must of us understand that interventions can provoke market responses not always quite often opposed to the interventionists' goals. There is no inevitability to an intervention -- no infallibility. At the time I wrote my book and GATA was getting started, there were only a handful of us who knew enough about the gold market -- outside the bullion bank community -- who knew something was wrong even if we couldn't put our finger on it. There was only a handful of us who had a stake in trying to get to the bottom of it. Well, things have changed. And now much in the way of the complex machinations is common knowledge -- discussed every day here and elsewhere.

As Richard Russell put it in his own inimitable way:

"I'm receiving an increasing amount of mail and e-mails from subscribers who are convinced that gold is being manipulated and held back," he commented recently. "The rumors say that it's being done by the Fed and the Treasury using leading brokerage houses to do the actual dirty work. Goldman Sachs is the outfit most often mentioned. If this is true, if manipulation is what we're seeing, then what's happening is that the trend, possibly the primary trend, of gold is being artificially held back. And if this is true, then somewhere ahead we will see and upward explosion in gold as the manipulators fail in their efforts to hold back the primary trend in gold."


Galearis (11/23/01; 16:32:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65785)
@ Chris and Netking
I agree.
Especially the first comment. A great mind at work there!!
And a reasoned response to it too!!
(smile)

@Netking: agreed 2; Indian gold and silver bugs are at least as tenacious as those in China. But CBs like fiat a lot too, I hear. The people of India may be too busy buying to notice the dishonour to the metal. But I sure hope the story isn't true. Not so much for the dishoarding - that would be only time they buy - but the silver reserve weight mentioned; and how many other cbs might be considering the same thing? Treat as a threat only.

Yup.

G.


megatron (11/23/01; 14:25:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65784)
Good point Chris.
They could have a point but a bigger problem lies in the fact even with a positive court outcome, they will not stop, simply because they are 'above the law'. The events of 911 will make anything they do from this point on politically and publicly justfiable in the deluded minds of Washington, Wall st,and Main st. It is a juggernaut with a momentum that cannot be stopped by freeing the gold market. If there is no gold in Fort Knox, obviously insiders know that and there was no effect on price. If there is gold in Fort Knox, it will be used to 'the last ounce' to defend interest rate derivatives and the US Credit industry. I find the actions of GATA most admirable and see thier path as the only one a rational and moral individual can take. They may even 'win' this case, but it will sadly have no effect on the 'war'. When you read the story of Benjamin Graham and sadly realize even a sombre little man like him was a tribalist altruist, you sense the enormity of the stuggle the individual capitalist faces.

Chris Powell (11/23/01; 13:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65783)
Will exposure of price manipulation actually hurt gold?
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/925
An exchange at GATA.


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BR549 (11/23/01; 11:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65782)
The three dumbest things people do---
The credit bubble will burst and take the world's economies with it--it is just a matter of time. So what are people doing that is detrimental to their future well being:

1. Borrow money from a bank and pay off your other debts.
How utterly stupid, unless the money loaned is not being collateralized. Pay off credit cards (non-collateralized interest) with your real estate gives the bankster access to your only real asset. Pay off your real estate and change everything to non-collateralized debt (unless you can sell assets until you become debt free) insures your future well-being.

2. Dollar cost average into the equities market. Dollar cost averaging worked when you could throw a dart into the stock pages and pick a winner. Dollar cost averaging is the surefire way to go broke in a bear market. Similar idiocy is to refuse to liquidate retirement plans because of tax implications to change from paper to physical assets.

3. Refuse to hoard for the good of the society as a whole. If you think that there will always be an abundant supply of food, water, ammunition, medicines, fuel, etc., then you deserve what could happen to your family. Rotating goods and Y2k type preparations are a lifetime way to live. Hoarding is modern insurance without a third party collecting your premiums. The hoarding of PM's (physical Gold and silver) will supplement whatever you run out of.

There are many other stupid things that people do based on what has happened to them in the past, but these are (IMHO) the absolute 3 dumbest.

BR549


site steward (11/23/01; 11:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 65781)
Dollar to lose ground as more support moves to euro
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=AO.5vXhT7VS5LLidz
HEADLINE: U.K.'s Blair Says Joining Euro in Britain's Interest

Birmingham, England, Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Tony Blair stepped up efforts to persuade Britain to join the euro -- his second such call in three days -- arguing that the U.K.'s national interest lies in being at the heart of European policy making.

``Britain's future is inextricably linked with Europe,'' Blair said. ``Europe is in Britain's economic interest. Britain has no economic future outside Europe.''
-------

Facing the inevitable monetary shift, diversify your portfolio with gold.

R.


Netking (11/23/01; 11:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 65780)
Oil price falls on Russian snub
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1671000/1671755.stm
Snippet:
Russia's oil firms have agreed to cut production in the hope of supporting prices, but the reduction is far less than industry cartel Opec had wanted.After a meeting in the Kremlin, the government announced that Russia would reduce output by 50,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year, with the possibility for further cuts in 2002.

But the reduction represents just 0.8% of overall output, or 1.7% of exports. Crude prices, which had leapt on Thursday on news of a Norwegian output cut, instantly fell by $1 per barrel to about $19.

Friday's announcement is a blow to Opec's ambition of persuading major non-Opec producers - notably Russia, Norway and Mexico - to come up with 500,000 barrels per day of cuts between them. Some had hoped that Russia might reduce output by as much as 200,000-300,000 barrels per day . . . "

Comment: The Claytons "how to make a cut when you're not really making a cut" scenario. - Netking


Netking (11/23/01; 11:02:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 65779)
Galearis - India dumping
Galearis Re: India silver dumping. That's it then Sir, we'll take the India story the same as some of those tales originating from China. I must admit G. that the thought of India (a high Ag user) dumping overseas at 5,000 year inflation adjusted lows at a time of a world wide physical shortage doesn't seem logical, although it has to be "possible" in the current environment where white is portrayed as black and black as white.

Belgian (11/23/01; 10:58:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65778)
Russian oil
Russian oil oligarchs gave an explanation why they can't cut production : They invested heavely in new equipment, two years ago, and can't shut it off now !? They would have plundered it anyway. It was them and other monopolists who brought Putin to power. Looks like a compromise low 20-ies-POO will /must/shall be accepted.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD (11/23/01; 10:38:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 65777)
Giving Thanks! You can avoid the crowded malls, jewelry store mark-ups, and sales taxes!
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/gold/buy_18k_index.html

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year after year... GOLD!

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Galearis (11/23/01; 07:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 65776)
@ Canuck and Netking
I was riveted by your tale
Add some bullets flying and you would have a best seller!

But she still didn't answer your questions. At least you had some fun....

Netking re India silver bullion deacquisition:
From a link found on Kitco (sigh and grimace) and never to repeated elsewhere. I spent a lot of time last night on Bulliondesk.com where they link virtually all pm related stories and since this one wasn't repeated amongst all those that were repeated, and repeated, and repeated AND it was such a fine disinformational piece I am assuming that it is bogus.

FWIW

G.


Black Blade (11/23/01; 07:17:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65775)
Bull Versus Bear
http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/011123/1123watch_1.html

Snippit:

The investment letters continue to chew over technical fulfillment of the bull market definition, with the 20% rebound from September's lows. Al Frank notes in his Prudent Speculator that the market's gains "almost meet the consensus requirements for a bull market." Frank is a tough guy, with an excellent record in The Hulbert Financial Digest, and he continues to maintain that Sept. 21 marked the low and that therefore he's bullish.

But Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell, who is really on an intellectual roll in his late 70s (he credits it to his chelation health regime), thinks the 20% rule is "utter nonsense": "Of course, it's nonsense. For example, at the bottom of the 1929 crash, the Dow stood at 198. A huge post-crash rally followed [which was normal], and by April of 1930 the Dow had rallied to 293. That was a rise of just over 48%. Was it a new bull market? Hardly. The Dow then headed into the worst bear market in history."


Black Blade: I think that we are likely to repeat history. Or as the old Yogism "It's déjà vu all over again." Gold performed very well in the last Great Depression. It should do quite well in the next one.


Black Blade (11/23/01; 07:09:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65774)
One-time charges? Not always
http://www.usatoday.com/money/earns/2001-11-21-charges.htm

Snippit:

For some firms, one-time charges are anything but. Cisco Systems, i2 Technologies and non-tech companies such as Procter & Gamble have made reporting one-time charges a quarterly ritual. Experts say this can befuddle investors who ignore such charges when evaluating companies. "Companies are hoping nobody notices," says Ed Ketz, accounting professor at Penn State.

Black Blade: More accounting trickery to fool and milk the investors dry.


Black Blade (11/23/01; 07:01:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65773)
Decades-Low Interest Rates Take a Toll on Savers
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000093143nov22.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness

Investing: The plunge in yields on money market accounts, CDs and other short-term investments has been particularly tough for seniors on fixed incomes.

Snippit:

The bond market rout that sent mortgage loan rates soaring during the last week was of little help to savers, who continue to suffer the worst savings yields in decades. Short-term savings rates have continued to fall, and experts saw little relief on the horizon. Longer-term yields crept up slightly, but remain at historically low levels.

Black Blade: The real rate of return has mostly gone negative counting for inflation. So much for the rate of return argument against Gold. Add a maintenance fee or some other charges, then it comes down to paying the banksters for borrowing your cash. Personally I never use bank services. However for those who do - In a word - "GRIM"


Belgian (11/23/01; 05:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 65772)
@ Canuck
Lucky you. Why do these pleasant encounters never happen to me, going into the bank ? It must be my low figure on the account/cash deposit, that is not attractive.
Leave those banks alone, Sir ! They want to sell their products and advise only on the product as such. Better have a chat with MK, keeper of this precious CPM-Goldbank, as hospital as your attractive bankster (smile).

Just had a chat with South African, Charl Marais, and they know damm well what's going on in Goldland. The important role that Anglogold is playing, was confirmed. Theory goes that WGC (ABX + AU) are promoting jewelry gold with the additional 200 million $, just for getting POG a bit higher as to be able to hedge again a big part of their underground gold, as to remain at the brotherhood's service !? (FWIW)
Indirectly it is evidence to me that something very - very -very - big is planned with Gold ! Repeat PLANNED ! With satisfaction guaranteed. The perfect management of POG !
Cynical, isn't it ?


Belgian (11/23/01; 04:58:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65771)
POO - Tony
The market's judgement on oil cuts : too little, too late.
POO down 1 $ to 19,20 $. What's next ?

The UK financial market was quick to minimize Tony's speech on EMU and euro. Pound has to come down for entry.
Speculations about the date for the euro-referendum.

December 6 th, ECB and rate cuts ? Difficult choices to be made again.


Canuck (11/23/01; 04:41:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65770)
Euro Countdown
39 days

US$/Euro 0.879


Canuck (11/23/01; 04:36:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65769)
$50,000
So I was at the bank again yesterday (interview #2) and couldn't decide whether the bank manager was interviewing me or I was interviewing the bank.

The first discussion took place on Friday the 16th. It was a general discussion involving few numbers, more of a conceptual dialogue.

I brought with me a couple recent articles from local newspapers:

a) IMF warns of global recession vs. Central Bank declare economies turning the corner

b) inflation/deflation

c) equities to turn the corner vs. markets overvalued

etc.

The bank manager sat back and listened to my regurgitation of facts and finally I posed THE question. I asked her, why are there so many of these respected opinions that say BLACK and then on the other side so many equally respected opinions of WHITE? (The actual words were left and right as I pretended to hold something with two hands facing left, a pause and then holding something facing right). She paused and said that it is very confusing times. I waited for more insight, I was anticipating the 'inside' guided tour but she stopped. I know she wanted to tell me more but couldn't.
Her eyes yearned to tell more but her lips were committed to the bank.

I tried to rebait/reload.

"Did you hear the inflation numbers today?", I asked. I went on before she answered. "The lowest numbers in 2 years, 1.9%...the dollar (CDN) took a beating and analysts believe Dodge (Bank of Canada governor) will reduce interests rate more. He shocked us with three-quarters a few weeks ago and now more. Mortgage rates went up .4% yesterday......the yield curve is getting steeper and steeper, what's going on?"

I noticed her stir so I shut up. She leaned across her desk and asked, "What are you going to do with the money?"

"Pay off my bills, I won't owe anyone a dime except for you, I will be extremely liquid and my cash flow will be very positive...."

She cut me off, "At this rate (5.45%) borrow as much as you can and pay off all your higher interest bills"

"I promise.... do you believe (mortgage) rates are going up?"

She responded, "Take out as much equity as you can." She paused, leaning back into her chair. "What are you going to do with the rest?"

It was getting exciting, she had opened my safety deposit box a couple of times, I decide to play the trump card. The questions and statements were moving very deliberately and with caution. I took a moment to look at her, she was quite good looking, "I am going to buy something very safe"

She had her hands together, index fingers bouncing off her bottom lip, elbows on armrests, our eyes had been fixed for 30 seconds. The body english was textbook, she knew I knew; I was awaiting her approval. I sat across with the patience of a saint, I am sure my eyes were smiling.

"Your loan is approved", she said confidently. Her eyes were smiling.

"Thank you"

When the dust settles I will buy her a gift, I saw a nice 8 gram Sovereign the other day, she deserves gold.





Belgian (11/23/01; 03:24:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65768)
@ Netking ....Tony and EMU
Thanks King ! Very important post ! It is touching the deep fundamentals on the relationship between euro and dollar ! And this against total opposite geopolitical strategies (US><Europ)! The more the word "coalition" is used, the weaker the coalition is ! The same for the word "democraty".

Tony knows that his (US-guided) geo-policy is a NO for joining EMU ! BBC is cautiously softening its tone and accents on the present malaises.
EMU wanted the UK to join. Today it is the UK who has manoeuvered itself into the role of the demander to join the community. Is there a better *indirect* evidence for the battle between the dollar and the euro on the geopolitical front ? The power struggle is on. Sides/camps, will have to be choosen ! Fascinating.

The Brits are going to have a tuff (imperial) nut to crack.
To US or not to US. And there is no free lunch or double crossing possible. Beware of the Golden axe. Thanks T.G.
I do understand you better and better.


Belgian (11/23/01; 02:57:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65767)
CNBC-Europ
Positive comments from Dutch analyst (oysterfinder) on Gold.
POG is in the process of bottoming without excluding a 250$ touch.

POO goes for the 21$.

Isn't it cynical that these miners of Gold, do get so much -undeserved-attention, whilst their client Gold buyers (Goldadvocates) continue to be ridiculed and ignored.

Invisible : Argentina's debacle (or the Turkish one) shows us again, Gold's role/importance as the ultimate reserve ! What better example does Gold activist's need, to give evidence of the Golden lifeboat for printers of fiat and individuals as well. Why are these Gold-Reserves, treated as practically non existing and totally unimportant or relevant in the chain of expanding disaster news ?
One should presume that, states who are in big trouble, should shout loud and clear that they still have Gold in possession and can buy some time to bridge the floods.
But this logic is and remains stubbornly ignored. I don't care if Argentina sells it Gold (if there is still left ?)

China is going to increase its goldmining to distribute it to its citizens. They keep the valuables in the house and export everything that is to be consumed. What are other states (US/South Africa/Canada/Australia) waiting for, to give a similar signal of appreciation to their to be mined underground Gold. It is so simple to let the world know that there is something very precious lying beneath the earth crust. But these states don't want to be or become strong and precious for reasons of currency-wars, raging through the global trade fights. It is common sense upside down. The globe wants to be dollar-enslaved. Peace and prosperity seems to be centered around that lust for a worthless green piece of paper. *Wanted* : The Dollar !
Or for catching Osama or installing (impossible) peace/stability in Afghanistan (5 billion $ as a starter in Bonn) or for bringing dictators to justice (Milosovitch).

The dollar is printing its way to false-peace an false-prosperity with an ever increasing momentum.
There, where this gigantic dollar mass can be challenged and destroyed in one second with only but Gold ! 2.500 tonnes yearproduction x 275$/ounce = 18 billion dollars !
18 billion dollars of Physical Gold, decide on the faith of
the globe's reserve currency !!!!! To put this sum into perspective with only one given : total crime money is estimated at 1 trillion dollars from the world's GDP of 40 trillion ! 18 billion dollars is Nothing for a handfull of Giants. It is against this perspective of Gold's extrodinary power that TG's projection of a POG within the thousands is an absolute certainty ! Repeat : an absolute certainty, and this within our lifetime ! Comments appreciated.



Netking (11/23/01; 02:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 65766)
Opec focus returns to Russia
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1671000/1671755.stm
Snippets:
Russia's oil firms are to meet with the Kremlin in an attempt to hammer out a deal on reducing exports.
After informal talks over the past few days, hopes are high that a deal can be struck, which could help support sagging oil prices. . . .

Over the past few days, most big Russian producers have tentatively welcomed moves to reduce exports. Although almost all Russian oil firms are privately owned, they enjoy a close working relationship with the Kremlin.
But their public pronouncements have been somewhat contradictory. . . .

But for Opec, it could be even more important: the cartel's once-magical ability to influence the market has been called into question in recent years, making it all the more important to patch together an effective deal this time around . . . ."


Netking (11/23/01; 02:41:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 65765)
Blair hints at Euro entry
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk_politics/newsid_1671000/1671114.stm
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to urge closer UK-European ties and hint at early entry into the single currency in a speech on Friday.

"The tragedy for Britain is that too many politicians have consistently failed to appreciate the emerging reality of European integration" - Tony Blair

Snippet:
The UK has missed the boat in Europe too many times, Tony Blair will say in what is being seen as his strongest hint yet towards joining the euro. Mr Blair will speak of the British "tragedy" of missed opportunities, with the biggest mistake being the failure to join from the outset what is now the European Union. . . .

The speech may anger Eurosceptics but is already being welcomed by pro-Europeans. Simon Murphy, Labour leader in the European Parliament said: "Read between the lines and the message is clear, Britain's decision to join is inevitable."


Netking (11/23/01; 02:20:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 65764)
North American gold major defends Aussie bid
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/mw/breaking/?show=15566
Snippets:
The designated president of an expanded Newmont Mining Corporation, one of two firms bidding to create the world's largest gold company, said its offer for Australia's Normandy Mining was the better bid. The bid from Denver-based Newmont is competing against one from South African miner AngloGold.

"We are running a marathon here. What happens after the first 100 yards, whoever is in front or back, does not really matter. It is what you get at the end that counts, so we do not have any concern at this time," said Pierre Lassonde, who is president of Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining Corporation.

In an interview, he added: "At this time, I think we have a bid that is economically superior." Newmont, anxious to get its hands on Normandy stock owned by Franco-Nevada, last week made an all-stock offer for the Canadian firm at the same time as the bid for Normandy . . . .

He said the combined liquidity of the Newmont, Franco-Nevada and Normandy, and their geographic diversity, were the key points for investors to consider when making a decision.

And he noted that, with the gold supply of the three companies unhedged, they can benefit from rising gold prices, while enjoying the cushion of its royalty programme. . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
Comment: It's going to be a long & protracted fight for sure.

The prospect of the unhedged trio of Newmont, Franco-Nevada and Normandy(hedges to be unwound) scenario looks to be superior in every way and more beneficial to shareholder wealth creation prospects (given a strong gold market next year) than any other option thus presented. - Netking


Black Blade (11/23/01; 01:56:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65763)
Goldman Could Cut Up to 1,000 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011123/business_financial_goldman_dc_1.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch said Friday it expected U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to cut upwards of 1,000 jobs as Goldman tries to stick to its goal of keeping staffing flat in 2001.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" to the growing "Bone Pile."


WAC (Wide Awake Club) (11/23/01; 00:42:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 65762)
Dozens killed in Colombian mine
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1670000/1670958.stm
Rescue workers and villagers in Colombia have been digging with tractors and shovels at the entrance of a collapsed gold mine in an effort to find survivors trapped under tonnes of rubble.

At least 27 people, including an 11-year-old boy, were killed and dozens more are still missing after a landslide engulfed the mine located about 300 kilometres (160 miles) west of the capital Bogota


Black Blade (11/23/01; 00:10:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65761)
U.S. in Recession, Research Group Says
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011123/business_economy_recession_dc_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The National Bureau of Economic Research, considered the official arbiter of recessions, could declare on Friday that the U.S. economy has entered a recession, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Friday.

Black Blade: Better late than never I suppose. These guys musta been asleep the last several months. Though Government Troll Larry Summers still won't admit that the US is in recession.




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