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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/23/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
IronHead
(01/23/01; 23:55:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46286)
<<<<FeRN's for AU on Friday: $Cheaper Than Paint On A Door>>>>
Thoroughly enjoying all the great anecdotes and reasons for the Gold Odyssey and Friday POG contests. My meeting with a friend yesterday, put all the astute observations gleened from the forum, on inflation, recession, manipulation, POG, etc, into perfect understanding.
He and the sweeter half both working at about 11 tenths to bring all the ends together, running each day for the race he seems to be loosing. Stressed to the max, along with about everyone else in his environ, and to add to his upset about the new refrigerator that was sitting in the middle of the kitchen when he came home from work (salesman told his wife it would fit - it didn't), the front door was to have been repainted by professionals. (It wasn't - something about the trim not done correctly) The price of $300.00 for painting the door did not appear to bother him, as much as the incorrect trim job. (I think he got trimmed - heck, my back door has had eight winters worth of snow stacked against it) Quietly I reached into my coffer and procured a Double Eagle, which I told him was roughly 1 oz. pure gold, that could be had for a bit less than his paint job. The look of abject confusion on his face was worth a silver eagle. There existed a knowing, yet unwillingness to comprehend, what was for he and I, a profound lesson in inflation and value.
So as to Friday's FERN reflection - cheap, as long as it's less than a door painting.
Salutations
IronHead
PS. Hi Hat, they don't have doors in the Bahamas do they?
Peter Asher
(01/23/01; 23:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46285)
>>======$269.90======>>>>
Today's dip after the decent auction showing was probably the absence of some demand that was directed into the bidding. I expect the improved political climate and it's accompanying optimism for more fairness in the markets, will begin to show up as a positive sentiment for gold. The week should close out somewhat higher then today's price bot not that much yet as market tests the waters.
Peter Asher
(01/23/01; 23:36:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46284)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
This twenty-year low for the price of Gold has been achieved by a basic dynamic of market psychology. The more unbelievable the price decline, the more demoralizing to sentiment and the stronger the negative momentum. We have seen, in this recent history, a body politic ignoring the will of the people to a degree never before approached in the annals of modern democracy. They have controlled the POG with impunity to enable their cohorts to conduct the trading activities necessary to protect their positions. They have not had to buy physical gold to do this. As negative sentiment holds the price of gold down and leaves all rallies suspect, larger quantities of covering long positions can be purchased without pulling up the price.. The same margin leverage that creates massive short positions also serves to acquire the longs. It is the writer of those long contracts that will eventually be caught short by the breakout. These purchasers have, so far, locked in their cover price for a small fraction of the funds that would be necessary to buy the physical. Squaring off the short sales has been merely a technical financial matter. This can only continue as long as the ‘System' is still in place. When the volume of futures trading increases substantially and consistently, we will be in an ‘end game' and this historic buying opportunity will be brought up short. (pun intended)
The beginning of the end may be at hand. In the last few days there has been a widening circle of perception that there is a watershed change in the type of "leadership" (commanders in charge) that control what is permitted behind the scenes. The following excerpts from recent posts are indicative of this.
ET (1/23/2001; 5:21:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46210)
>>> John Brimelow --- saga of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund - its rise, fall, and the peculiar circumstances surrounding its rescue in September 1998 - more and more appears paradigmatic of Clinton Era finance. Esoteric and secretive in action, operating through special relationships and understandings, involving greed and ambition of astonishingly uninhibited scale, and ultimately giving rise to suspicions of ominous fusion between private commercial objectives and the formulation of public policy, it lays out a pattern likely to become all too familiar as documentation of the period becomes more available.<<<
And >>>>This quote from the French finance minister, Laurent Fabius, was included in Bill Murphy's Midas commentary of January 19th. -- "I have always considered the idea that the American economy had discovered perpetual growth naive. The conditions we've seen for some time now, including the lack of savings and external trade deficit were inevitable financial negligence wrought by the over valued dollar. I know, however that the new American administration is well aware of these games and is capable of acting pragmatically in close coordination with Alan Greenspan. The group of seven meeting in one month will give us the possibility to discuss these questions." <<<
I am suggesting that the lights may be being turned on in "the boiler room." This raid on the price of Gold was able to occur in a uniquely licentious period of political history. Indeed the acceleration of the decline can be seen to have begun about the time that Clinton was re-elected and no longer had to hold back for fear of losing an election. I submit that only in this extreme state of permissive impropriety could this abuse of rules and regulations flourish unchallenged.
I predict that the re-emergence of at least some semblance of ethical standards in the new leadership will significantly lessen the ability of the behind-the-scenes manipulation to carry on. What would follow would be a higher "equilibrium" price for gold.
I don't think we are going to have the "melt down" due to the credit and market bubbles. Aside from the NASDQ, the markets have spent twenty-one months now above and below a flat-line median. The Dow, for instance, has a line right through the 10,600 level, and at the moment swings a bit above and below in an orderly fashion. Consider how much stock is now in the hands of recent owners who are more or less even. I also believe the credit bubble will be deflated by "new loans for old" as lower interest rates improve the ability to service debt at the expense of the receivers of interest income.
That leaves a Gold market able to recover gently at first, which is what even the bad guys probably want. Absent the panic of major crises, Gold will most probably back away from first the $280 level and then the WA $340 before creating any legion of true believers. The year-end could fall either side of that second psychological overhang.
How fitting it is to label the course of Gold an Odyssey.
Odysseus, (Ulysses in Latin and Gold in Kosares) set forth from his victories of winning the Trojan Wars, (Iliad) (Days of Gold as Money) and visited the land of the lotus eaters (credit purveyors) whose magic food (receiving before earning) makes people forget their homeland. (Honest exchange) Odysseus sets sail for home but is captured by the cyclops (1933 Confiscation) He escapes (re-legalization of Gold) but is blown off course (London gold Pool) and lands on the island inhabited by Circe who changes his men into pigs, (1970's asset inflation profiteering) and made Odysseus her lover. (Gold @$850) Some of his men stole and ate the sacred cattle of the sun, (sold their Gold for profit and spent it) and as punishment the ship was destroyed and the men drowned. (Recession, and the S & L disaster)
Now Odysseus has been a prisoner of the sea nymph Calypso, (Gold/Yen Carry Trade) for several years. The god Hermes ( EU) makes Calypso release Odysseus (Washington agreement) but the sea god Poseidon (Cabal) causes a storm and he is shipwrecked on the island of the Paeacians. (England, LBMA and BOE)
The Palace where Fair (Trade) Penelope awaits him has been occupied by a "group of unruly young noblemen (Fiat currencies) who want her to assume that her husband (Gold) is dead. They demand that she marry one of them." When Odysseus returns to the palace he is disguised as a beggar. (commodity) The noblemen are having an archery contest, the winner to marry Penelope. (Become the reserve currency). But Odysseus throws off his disguise, (shows himself as monetary gold) kills the noblemen (fiat currencies) and he (Gold) and fair (trade) Penelope are reunited!
-----
2001 will most likely not see "The return to the palace." Gold must sail past the "Siren Calls" that cloud men's minds with false fantasy. But Odysseus will be lashed to the mast be the bonds of words of truth spoken to the world on this Forum. This year should see Gold clear of the straights and past the headland, the wind again filling the sails, pulling towards home and Fair Trade Penelope
Simply Me
(01/23/01; 22:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46283)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
For the year 2001, gold's spot price as established by the LBMA will thrash around between $250 and $275 for the first 6-8 months as the Dollar vs. Euro reserve currency battle rages on (with the Euro gaining inch by inch) and paper gold continues to fight it's losing battle. Also, throughout most of the year, the world's medium to small investors, who've finally given up on the US stock market, will be trying one investment vehicle after another and finding little satisfaction (I think the big boys already have their investment transitions complete.)
Sometime around the end of summer...as the Euro strengthens and US$ weakens to parity, the US stock market fails to sustain one rally attempt after another, and US inflation and job lay-offs begin to make front-page news...silver and gold coin sales will begin to climb dramatically in the US.
At this point, though the official gold spot price stays within range, we may see higher premiums as the paper gold and physical gold prices begin to part ways.
By the end of the year, US economic news will include stories of how good the economy is in the Euro-zone, the Middle Eastern countries put the finishing touches on their one-common-currency agreement (which is heavily gold & Euro backed) and announce a transition date, and China announces the grand opening of their free gold market.
The drama will not be over by the end of 2001, but those who've been following FOA/Another and USAgold Forum will no longer debate whether gold will rise, but by how much. There will be more talk about the price of physical gold and not so much quoting of the LBMA spot price. One gold ounce will be priced around $350-$375, while the paper gold futures will trade in the $300 range.
The beginning of 2002 will see England joining the Euro block (earlier than expected), and the beginning of the end for the LBMA (evidenced by a widening gap between LBMA spot and physical prices, while the USA begins to debate whether we are in a recession or a depression.
Gold was told she would be set free from her USDollar prison in the 1999 Washington Agreement. In 2001, she will take her first breath of fresh air since Nixon closed the gold window nearly 30 years ago. And by the end of 2002 she will be Queen of Money once more.
simply me
Mr Gresham
(01/23/01; 22:12:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46282)
Working-kirk: Filene's basement
You nailed the whole market story we're gonna read someday: "These cheapstakes will willingly drive up the price to $300.00 because even at $300. it still is a bargain. But for the short a price of $300 will be a disaster! "
Welcome aboard!
The Invisible Hand
(01/23/01; 22:03:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46281)
Bi-Monopolization of the physical gold market
Hi Canuck,
Hi ThaiGold,
Canuck asked in (01/23/01; 18:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46275) why unhedged miners aren't boasting of their bids successful or otherwise.
Perhaps it's because if they boasted about it, they or the UK Treasury would have to explain how the UK Treasury fixes the prices at its auctions. If it's really the lowest bidder, I would offer 1 cent per ounce or per tonne. To me it's not clear how the UK Treasury arrives at its prices. Neither is it clear to me how the bidders determine the price they will offer.
What got my attention in the Gold_Eagle post which I copied in #46222 is the fact the price was higher than the LBME prices. My intuition had always taught me that since at the auctions demand exceeded the supply, the price at the auctions had to rise above the LBME prices . The Gold Eagle post drew my attention to the fact that, if need be, there's the cheaper alternative of the lower-prices (in case the auction price exceeds the LMBE price) of the LMBE. (call me a slow thinker!)
Perhaps the price of gold could go up (and thus provide an answer to ThaiGold's (01/23/01; 16:24:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 46254) (When, *exactly*, Will Gold Go UP.?))
when we'll get some insight into the price-fixing process (GATA, are you listening?) by the public authorities, i.e. HM Treasury, at these auctions.
Last week's events in Manila (ousting of President Estrada and swearing in on Saturday of the Vice-President after the impeachment court gave on Tuesday 11 votes to 10 a biased judgment in favour of Estrada preventing the prosecution to invoke some pieces of evidence) could perhaps provide the blueprint for the gold rise. After 4 days of demonstrations in Manila, Estrada was forced to quit. The reason why he was forced to quit was that the populace was bewildered by the judgment.
Your question was why unhedged miners aren't boasting of their bids successful _or otherwise_.. Perhaps those whose bids were unsuccessful could expose their bewilderment. Wasn't the aim of the BOE to fix the prices? So why do they fix it above the market price? Alternatively, the unsuccessful bidders could argue that they offered an higher price and still their bids were unsuccessful.
But it would not surprise me that all the bidders get their turn at the auctions and each bidder gets some gold at a different auction. This would mean that both the suppliers and the ‘demanders’ are colluding. How does this fit into Section 1 the Sherman Act? Or should we invoke monopolization as provided for by Section 2 of the Sherman Act and as opposed to article 86 of the EU Treaty which prohibits abuse of dominant position? Are the BOE and the cabal colluding to monopolize the physical gold market on the supply-side and the demand-side?
The InVisible Hand
migrator@www.cz
Simply Me
(01/23/01; 21:45:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46280)
>>>----$270.40---->>
This week I think the tide will turn for the spot gold price. The Euro vs. Dollar battle rages on with gold kept in range, so far, by the gold paper shorts. But I think I see some chinks in the damn: 1) The BOE auction, oversubscribed with bids over spot. Was that a last chance to cover for some shorts who will now be scrambling to get out of the game? 2) The Fed, slashing rates and pumping up money supply like crazy in the face of inflation. How long can they delay the looming defaults that frightened AG into that surprise 1/2 pt. rate drop. 3) General pessimism among goldbugs. IE: An obstetrics nurse told me she had learned from long experience that when a woman in labor says, "I want to go home now.", you can be sure the birth will come soon.
So why was my guess only around $270.00? Because it's just the beginning of gold's release. Many forces are still against it. But I think that's the ECB's favored gold price.
Hoping many months of lurking is leading to some understanding.
simply me
The Hoople
(01/23/01; 20:49:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 46279)
===== $271.20 =======>>>
Gold screaming higher will expose phony CPI,PPI, and all other phony inflation numbers. Nobody pushing paper can allow that to happen. Can you imagine true deficit if Social Security, Medicaid payments would float up 10 - 20% annual? I am bullish on gold because the hound dogs from hell are descending on fiat. Until they attach teeth to posterior the cabal will literally do anything to stop gold. As a side note if I win I will donate a portion to fix the pothole Marketalk mentioned to avoid Limosine Liberals' limo getting swallowed up .
working-kirk
(01/23/01; 20:26:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 46278)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>$280.50>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I feel that the price of gold is going to go up but the gold goons will kick it in the head once more. I believe it is due to to up higher but the resistance is at $275. While the closing price of 265.90 as of today 1/23/2001 is lower a
funny thing keeps happening. Because the amount of shorting done in the market, the resistence level keeps dropping. It has to keep dropping. I noticed this in 1999 when no matter what gold would not go above $315. The Washington Agreement had The Powers That Be (TPTB) running scared and to fight it the gold goons had to fight it with paper. That paper dropped the price to $300. And then $290, $285, $275. There has been an awful lot of papering going on since the start of the year And as much as the gold goons would like to beat down the price to unconsciousness. They can't. One reason.
Too many bargain hunters out there. I doubt many people understand gold derivatives and the paper market or any of the other tstrange things going on out there but they know a bargain. Before I heard any of the strange going-ons I was considering getting some gold coins. So I did the most basic research. I found out on average it costs about $350.00 to mine and selling for for $310. You didn't need to explain anything more. I gone as much as I could afford. Then the price kept dropping and I got the education in the
secret gold marketplace and the goon hammering it down. The goons continue to hammer at it and the resistance price keeps dropping lower and lower. I believe so much papering has been done it will drive the price the short need to continue to $250. If $310 was enough of a bargain for me can you imagine the serious cheapstakes out there. Ever go to Filene's Basement in Boston when they had a big sale. Them little old ladies will KILL YOU!!! You don't stand in the way of a bargain hunter and the bargain. At $250.00 gold will be too much of a bargain. Even through I am max out on what gold I can buy, The day, I see $250.00 is the day I pawn everything I have and buy gold! Those gold shorts
don't have a chance of fighting all those bargain hunters. These cheapstake will willingly drive up the price to $300.00 because even at $300. it still is a bargain. But for the short a price of $300 will be a disaster! They will put the BIG STOMP on gold. They don't allow it to rise more than a dollar a day. But the fact they made it such a bargain will catch them by surprise. The price will leap and then fall as the stomp is applied. It will probably go up to $287, get mugged and started falling to $280 by Friday's close.
The weekend is when it gets interesting. For while gold can be slapped around as if Moe on a rampage, silver has been gathering strength. For now it stopped but it hasn't really fallen. I predict it will go to $5.75 an ounce. And that will be the price level for it to explode! Then things will get interesting.
Tree in the Forest
(01/23/01; 20:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46277)
Ski, Auspec, Saxulum^, Farfel, Old Yeller, Ross L, WAC
Ski, Auspec, Saxulum^, Farfel, Old Yeller, Ross L, WAC
Ski: Thank you for the compliment. Now if I could just be right once in a while, it would be very helpful!
Auspec: I certainly wouldn't want to keep gold in Fort Knox. As I recall, it was built in the 30's and was probably adequate for its purpose at that time. But today, with some 20 or so nuclear suitcase bombs in the wrong hands, the "Goldfinger" scenario becomes a real possibility. Undoubtedly some spooks figured this out long ago and moved the gold to safer quarters. Now the only question is whether we can get it back from the spooks when we need it, or have they sold it and built "spook heaven" with it.
Saxulum^: Regarding CB gold. Seems to me I read on this site or elsewhere that US year 2000 gold exports were enormous and were not true gold exports but NY FED gold being returned to rightful owners disguised as exports. Perhaps they have doubts about the survival of the FED and were getting there gold off the ship before it sank.
Farfel: Have always enjoyed your posts enormously. When will gold achieve it's true value? Hmmm. Let's see. The last BOE gold auction is March 14. Hint hint, nudge nudge.
Old Yeller: Does the cabals plan wobble? I'd call LTCM one helluva wobble. They're very good at emergency medicine. They're certainly not perfect. They ain't God though they'd probably like to think they are.
Ross L: Could the last line of the Century III quatrain be interpreted your way? Sure, why not. But I have noticed a strong tendency for people to want to rationalize these types of predictions into a homogenized whole. The human mind wants things to be rational and make sense. I see them more as chaotic dreams or "stream of consciousness" a la James Joyce's "Finnegan's Wake". People seem afraid of these types of predictions in part because they don't make rational sense and because of the difficulty of correct interpretation. Accept the chaos and don't over interpret is how I prefer to see them.
WAC: You are far more knowledgable on the Ark of the Covenant than I. It certainly is an interesting topic. A search on "Ark of the Covenant" can be particularly fruitful and intriguing. Some claim to have located one or the other of them with pictures too! I use Metacrawler and Google for searches. Also very interesting is a book written by futures guru Larry Williams in which he recounts his adventures in Saudi Arabia locating the true Mt. Sinai. Great read. I forget the name but it's something like The Sinai Myth or something like that. I recommend it to all would be Indiana Joneses!
==============> $267.50 <==============
My guess for Friday. TPTB is still firmly in control so it's as good a guess as any. Even a small rise in the price now threatens the shorts per Don_L over on GE.
Good night all.
Zenidea
(01/23/01; 20:21:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46276)
Kung hei fat choi !
In HK after Singapore , found diamond in PT set ring and au ring yesterday a few silver and a couple of hundred of
fiat. Eating wineing & dineing to the max. Oh its a hard life . No time to chit chat right now , take care all :).
Canuck
(01/23/01; 18:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 46275)
@ Invisible Hand #46222
I've tried to think of these BOE auctions from a bidders perspective. I often get myself going in circles.
We have heard (in the early auctions; not so lately) of producers bidding for the BOE gold. Remember the successful Gold Fields bid in auction 1 or 2. I am certain Anglogold has bid and I am fairly certain Placer has bid. Who knows who has bid and who has successfully bid.
Question:
Why aren't the unhedged miners not boasting of their bids successful or otherwise?
"Yeah, we put in a bid of 5 tonnes a couple dollars below spot to see what happened; hoping the lowest acceptable bid was there"
Why aren't (some of) the hedged miners not boasting of their bids?
Placer, "We are reducing our hedged exposure (as per last Feb) so we put in an unsuccessful low-ball bid; maybe better luck next time"
Why aren't the unhedged miners not 'ramping' up the 'subscription' rate. Boast up the subscription rate.
Franco-Nevada has a bunch of cash, "Yeah, we bought a bunch, taking it off the market, maybe sell it down the road at a much higher price"
I realize that the above is simplistic but instead we get nothing? What's up with that? Why don't the bidders tell us?
I'm sure some are secretive short-covering monsters, hmmmm, maybe all the bidders this morning were freaks? (shorts)
And finally, the lowest acceptable bid was above spot. If these (4.8 times) multitude of freaks are all bidding above spot it makes you wonder why they are chasing the BOE's physical so hard!!! I wonder what the highest bid was and even more interesting, who, Chase? Morgan? GS? ABX?
Hee hee, there's no more gold freaks!!!!
Hi-Hat
(01/23/01; 18:42:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46274)
slingshot
Yes. Bahamas is where all the good Pirates end up.
Genoo
(01/23/01; 18:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46273)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>$284.30>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And why you say...because I feel that we are overdue for a little bounce. Plus emotionally I do not feel optomistic at this time...which tells me that I should be a buyer right now.
slingshot
(01/23/01; 18:29:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46272)
Journeyman
A good sense of humor will make the ride that much more enjoyable. Rocky the squirrel said, Are they friendly spirits? I don't know about Hi Hat. Hope to see him in the BAHAMAS after the gold rush. I can hear that island music.
slingshot
Genoo
(01/23/01; 18:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46271)
******A GOLD MARKET ODYSSEY*****
The US dollar, the 'people's' stock market or NASDAQ, and the American economy have all tilted downwards and are currently sliding toward the middle of nowhere...and all three could break sharply to the downside at any time...my guess though, is that this will not occur for the next 1-3 months.
Politically, the US citizenry are still breathing a sigh of relief with the recognition that Bubba really is gone and is no longer in place to act out his sexual conflicts on the world stage, to the humiliation of his country. At the same time, the highly undervalued and IMO even more highly unknown quantity [so no wonder many refer to him as W, as one with only a sliver identity], hasn't been in place long enough to show his hand.
However if will not be long because financially, the California Crisis is front and centre and it now appears that it will be the first domestic test of the new presidency. No matter what dynamics become clear...and my guess is that George Senior will be pulling the strings...the method deployed in dealing with the California scenario may be very telling and may in fact be the prototype for the style of management seen in the next four years. Again just a guess, but I expect to see any socialist trimmings to be sharply cut and an entrepenurial style to emerge...if so, the solution will be quick and sure and definitely not painless.
As for gold, there will be little change in the next few weeks but I expect the fundamental issues to more determine its price by year's end...as the invisible hand deftly sifts and sorts out the garbage.
Pandagold
(01/23/01; 18:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46270)
Sir Gresham
All is forgotten, there was nothing to forgive. The windmills and damsels can wait. I will keep my seat at the table.
Mr Gresham
(01/23/01; 18:18:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46269)
Sir Pandagold: Apologies for Clumsiness in Style
I see we have fallen prey to Internet Dis-Interpretation. Yes, I doubted the wisdom of some words I chose, and of course now would strike them if I could, having failed to convey the spirit in which I intended them. (When I think of the adjectives that might be tossed my way...!) Please forgive any ungentlemanly harshness.
I tried to express my satisfaction in your company, and how I value your contributions. I state that here, in repetition, as plainly as I might. Continue with us, please, for as long as wisdom prompts you.
I thought: "Could I not help you in opening up your own chosen topic to others, knowing less than you, but observing your method from the gallery with a critical eye toward improving it?" Now I doubt my ability to add much on this, even as a friendly questioner.
My statements of "knowing": ("Of course we know who "They" are, Pandagold. We ARE "They".") was a "we're watching you, Number Six" (remember Patrick MacGoohan on "The Prisoner"?) humorous attempt to poke at the paranoia that keeps people silent on the topic of certain "conspiracy theories." Not a poke at you, Sir, for you have revealed more of yourself than others have in this regard. My humor was meant to walk that line between revelation and concealment, believing that our fellows feel many different things along that spectrum, including fatigue.
In sooth, I despair at the powers of poor words (all that we have here) to convey more than the grossest of agreements and disagreements. I must learn those "smile" symbols some day soon, but my Manual of Style must be out of date. Can you not accept this less-than-perfect hashing-over of today's mumblings and go on with our journeys?
Hi-Hat
(01/23/01; 18:05:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46268)
Everything is the opposite of what it seems
Amidst endlessly watching and waiting for something that has already found us.
No one knew, No one knows, No one will ever know.
Death is the only criterion on which to base what is important.
Journeyman
(01/23/01; 18:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 46267)
Bull @Slingshot msg#: 46262
As in Bullwinkle Moose.
And you thought we weren't watching!!
Regards, J.
Pandagold
(01/23/01; 17:50:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46266)
My old Gran
I had an old Gran who had lived through two wars – or was it three. I was only little at the time but I remember her saying that you could always tell when a war was coming because they played lots of military music on the radio before hand.
Whether this was true or not, I don't know, but it sort of stuck in my mind.
Well, today, we have TV. In fact, round the clock TV. And what I have noticed is an increasing amount of world war 2 movies and documentaries. – particularly about the Nazis. They all seem to be there just to emphasise one particular part of it. It even crops up in so many other programs, movies etc., which, some, on first hand, seem un-related. Yet, you can almost feel it coming, and sure enough, you are not disappointed. You almost feel that only certain people suffered in that war, and that that was what it was really all about.
So I ask myself, why are we getting all this sixty years afterwards. Small doses could be understandable, but it seems to be increasing at an alarming rate – even articles in the newspaper.
Someone I thought , is getting awfully worried. Someone knows that the conditions are about to be inflicted on the world economies that caused what happened before to happen. again.
It's just a thought. I hope to God I'm not right.
(well. ThaiGold, I thought, if I'm not going to sleep well to night, why should you)
MarkeTalk
(01/23/01; 17:50:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46265)
Of Limousines and Liberals
Well, now we are into the second week of the electricity crisis which is plaguing the Golden State. Headlines in every newspaper jump out at you, Nightline with Ted Koppel has already covered the topic on a couple of occasions, CNN features a new development hourly. The most reasoned (and fear-inspiring) discussion was last Friday's front page article in the Wall Street Journal. In said article, the illustrious Diane Feinstein, Democratic senator from la-la-land, was musing about the financial fix that Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern Cal Edison find themselves in. Knowing as she does that both companies are heavily indebted to Bank of America and Wells Fargo to the tune of billions, the prospect of default and/or bankruptcy was discussed. She said the ramifications of such an event would reach well beyond California's borders into the international market place, i.e. the bond market and the foreigners who finance our massive spending habits. So against the backdrop of voices clamoring for the two utilities to go bankrupt (and thus supposedly allowing the people to buy their energy cheaper without having to pay someone to produce it), it was strangely refreshing to see hers as a voice of restraint. Allowing default and bankruptcy is like driving the limousine into a pothole large enough to swallow the entire car. We conservatives have to give the liberals some credit: When it comes to liberals, even they are smart enough to protect the limousine!
John Doe
(01/23/01; 17:49:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46264)
@ Randy, Mr Gresham
Thank you both.
Randy, my overriding point is that inflation, even relatively high, manageable inflation, would be FED's best outcome, but is not in any way assured. Your assessment, a tip into hyperinflation, I believe is the next most likely scenario. However, chaotic dynamics may well drive us into depression instead. Gentle deflation, that "sweet spot" of banking, prudent borrowers, and long term savers, is a total impossibility for at least the next several decades. That mode was cast aside some 87 years ago, apparently as "less than optimum."
Mr Gresham, stagflation would be the best the system could hope for. At least then one's home value has a chance to outrun the inflation rate, as long as one has an income source to make the payments with the same amount of ever "cheaper" dollars. And even then, variable rate loans will catch more than a few if rates eventually begin to rise to "combat" the stagflation. Early 80's rerun -- get out the Duran Duran records.
It's ironic, the lender tries to make up for ever-cheapening dollars by exponentially increasing volume/quantity, and the borrower takes them up on it, assuming a continuously declining quality of the money supply, which forces the lender to lend even more. A symbiosis cast in hell. Heaven forbid either party reneges.
Pandagold
(01/23/01; 17:40:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46263)
Sir Gresham
Sir Gresham, I addressed your reply to me in good spirit, and in context. You claimed you knew who 'they' were in your opening statement. You also inferred you were just probing me to find out who I was and what I knew.
Everything I know is available to all and sundry in written form, or observation if you keep your eyes open. I am a mere fellow Knight on the golden quest.
I speak not in riddles sir, but I give pointers. If you want to know what riddles are then read Nostradamus.
With many writers, especially on sensitive issues, you have to learn to read between their lines. This is how I have gained my knowledge. I don't find it irritating. I am so sorry that you obviously do.
If it is the feeling of my fellow Knights, then I can find alternative things to do than share with you. My horse is waiting, and I can ride off to tilt at windmills perhaps, or find some fair damsel in distress ( or datstress)
slingshot
(01/23/01; 17:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46262)
Not everyone depressed ThaiGold
Ho! Boy!, We are getting ready to go for the ride of the century and we are depressed. There is a sucker born every minute,and every two minutes taken. P T. Barnum. When is gold going up? Hope not too soon. Least till more of the small time investors (STINS New Acronym) get to buy piece by piece the gold on the market. Increasing the demand for physical gold. Thus really puting one up the central bankers KAZOO!
Inee Beanee Jelly Beanie, The Spirits Are About To Speak. Are They Friendly Spirits? Who said this?
Slingshot
Mr Gresham
(01/23/01; 17:12:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46261)
John Doe
John Doe, I like your style. You have captured and conveyed a sense of the balances and imbalances that are being watched from high places, and strategies awaiting new trends for their implementation.
It occurs to me that the overwhelming accumulation of debt, as Randy reminds us, forecasts a situation in which that debt will be MOST difficult to service. That scenario would be stagflation, in which money supply drops, but prices of all basic goods rise, leaving next to nothing for debt service.
In other words, all dollar-denominated markets are now being priced for massive debt default and dilution of real savings and confiscation of weakly-held wealth. Conversely, bullet-proof "workout" vehicles are probably being devised by financial players to hold and gather real assets through the firestorm. ("Excuse me; do you mind if we play through?")
Mr Gresham
(01/23/01; 17:00:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46260)
Pandagold
"Gresham...says he knows..."
I did not say such a thing, Sir. Because you would not be specific, then I was forced to be conditional: "If you're talking about the publicly-researchable "backgrounds", then you most likely are referring to memberships..." blah, blah, blah. "If" and "most likely" do not assert certainty.
I assume that others can see my point in that, if you alone possess data that is NOT publicly-available, then we have no other means to get it than from you. If it IS readily researchable, then I submit that many of us have already run across it, and so some in your "class" deserve credits for prior study and are ready to move on. It is you, Sir, who do not submit your thoughts to verification by this method.
It is irritating to talk in riddles and at cross-purposes with one who bears his lance at my side. I would meet your challenge, but I do not know whether I must send my Squire to check if your lance be capped, or no.
The attempt at a "Big Smiley" was for you, my friend, for if this assembly hides its knowledge from you, it will be coaxed out better by the good humor you have shown us than by bombast.
RossL
(01/23/01; 16:49:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46259)
>>>========= $261.90 ==========>
The speculators in the hedge funds will hammer the price down and run some sell stops at the COMEX this week. On Friday afternoon, buyers of physical will happily purchase their gold coins at an exchange rate referenced to the paper gold price of $261.90 per troy ounce.
RossL
(01/23/01; 16:48:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46258)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
In order to obtain the maximum amusement value for the forum readers in Jan. 2002, this 2001 Odyssey is written in the past tense.
The year began with the first of the Alan Greenspan FED panic interest rate moves and George "Dubya" Bush assuming the presidency. Bush pushed through a tax cut to the relief of Wall Street, and the stock markets responded with a temporary reversal of the bear market that had crushed the NASDAQ in 2000. The honeymoon ended by late summer, however, despite several more FED panic interest rate cuts. The bear returned with a vengeance as several notable large-scale corporate bankruptcies shook Wall Street and the world markets. The populace of the western world finally learned what that old saying "pushing on a string" meant.
The year 2001 was an infliction point for the gold market, marking a 20 year bottom and a sharp reversal. It was quite stunning for the 99% of the western world who believed the "barbarous relic" story that the western press had told for years.
In the first part of the year we saw heavy increases in the paper gold short position every time the Fed lowered rates. The hedge funds believed in the fictional "Greenspan put" as they leveraged their index fund and currency positions with short paper gold positions. It had worked for years and they had faith in Black-Scholes and their trading programs. They just weren't quite ready for the lightning strike that hit in the autumn of 2001. The sharp drop in the US dollar and a string of bankruptcies devastated the bond market, which brought on the now-famous cross-cascading derivative defaults. The lack of liquidity and caused all those major banks to close their doors until the merger legislation was passed. Alan Greenspan really met his match when the longs asked for delivery on those 125,000 COMEX gold contracts!
Of course, the astute USAGOLD readers had plenty of time to exchange their now-devaluated Federal Reserve notes and now-worthless mutual funds for gold coins, and they lived happily ever after.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/23/01; 16:37:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46257)
John Doe, splendid post. Thank you for adding your elaboration
I perceive us to be very much in agreement on our view of this. I find the important crux of the issue in your words here:
"...deflationary effects in nearly all areas. FED will try to avoid this, as it more seriously runs counter to the banking/finance industry's interests, i.e., inflating away their assets is largely preferable to driving an unmanageable proportion of their assets into default and/or bankruptcy."
Yes, the banking system must/will be "saved". Whether readers like it or not, modern society is incomprehensible absent modern banking. No honest thinker can imagine a future world without business loans and home mortgages.
Where I see the Fed losing its desparately delicate balancing act is waiting off-stage in the wings...in the unmanageable flow of the "overhang" of foreign-held U.S. debt securities. As a shrinking dollar erodes the real value to be received at maturity, early discount selling could touch off a selling panic among those holding for the here-and-now principle value.
I see into the future the U.S. currency/banking system continuing along its modern (fiat time period) path based ever more on commercial debt and less on government debt....shades of meaning behind my prior post today on the Treasury's "strong dollar" policy.
It is in the course of this transition and workout phase, particularly given the movement potential for "hot money" as has been accumulating for years as we spent freely. We always knew there would be a day of reckoning, no?
Thank you again for your contribution. I hope this is not interpreted as obscurring or equating with your view where we may differ. I encourage readers to give full thought to your excellent post to better know your mind. With this I have only endeavored to further share mine from a starting point of common ground.
Waiter: "...and for you, sir?"
Uncle Sam: "We shall have the hyperinflation."
Waiter: "Very good, sir. It's the only thing on the menu."
Cavan Man
(01/23/01; 16:34:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46256)
Thai Gold
You're a "piece of work" as we used to say in "da hood".
Best.....CM
Pandagold
(01/23/01; 16:33:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 46255)
Thai gold
Now that's unfair. I won't sleep tonight for excitement - or is it apprehension. I am wondering shall I mortgage my home ready to back it to the hilt - or head for the hills to escape my creditors. Honestly Thaigold........
(Is it BUY tomorrow or BYE BYE?)
It's like the night before Christmas Eve when I was a kid.
ThaiGold
(01/23/01; 16:24:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 46254)
When, *exactly*, Will Gold Go UP.?.
... You will learn the Answer on Wednesday ...
As usual, it seems everyone in the Forum is depressed and
disgusted with POG's dismal performance once again, today,
as the Gold Shares and Futures were pummeled.
This is the usual fare, and the BOE auction is just a small part
of the SetUp for the LetDown. Do not be fooled.
Who was it that said: "There's a sucker born every minute".?.
Many Lurkers and Posters come here to (somehow) learn the
answer to one single paramount question:
"When is Gold going to go UP.?."
It's a reasonable question to ask. In a Gold Forum. Especially.
Okay. I will give you the difinitive *exact* answer to that
elusive question, in a very short post I shall make, after the
markets have closed, on Wednesday of this week.
You will have your Answer after reading it. Here. In this Forum.
Trust me.
ThaiGold
auspec
(01/23/01; 15:55:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 46253)
>>>============$266.70=============>
Ye Old Contest
The trend is THEIR friend.
Canuck Gold
(01/23/01; 15:50:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46252)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
Personally, I've been waiting for the price of gold to rebound for the last two and a half years and in the interim I've witnessed a whole slew of circumstances which had the potential to trigger such an event. Other that the Washington Agreement, which blindsided most people, nothing of any significance ever happened. Even the explosion following the WA quickly subsided. I'm probably preaching to the converted, but there are powerful forces (people) at work who think there is more profit to be made by a declining price than a climbing one. Things are complicated even further by the fact that the Clinton administration presided over the last eight years and so many strange events took place that were never adequately explained that it's easy to believe that a fantasy island mentality was orchestrated.
Now that GW is in the White House, will things change? Poor George is caught between a rock and a hard place because if he tampers too much with the institutions and policies that I believe were set in place to foster the la la land mentality, the whole thing will come crashing down and he will be the scapegoat.
So what's going to happen? If I could predict the future with any accuracy, I'd have been off sitting in the sun somewhere long ago instead of shivering in the cold but I'll give it my best shot.
The US economy is actually the entity caught between a rock and a hard place because the economy is slowing and there are not many options available to turn it around. In fact there are probably only two, which are mutually exclusive - keep the dollar strong or lower interest rates. The fed has already indicated their inclination to lower interest rates and another 1/4 or 1/2 point drop has been predicted before the end of the month. That should help to keep things going for a little while longer but the American people are so far in debt that it isn't going to prevent them from tightening their belts and sitting it out for a while, especially as the fear of job loss has reared it's ugly head again. Slowly but surely, the economy will go into recession and the US equity markets will continue into a sustained bear market. This will in turn cause the US dollar to decline as foreign investors look for other means of asset growth or, more likely, preservation. Whether this will all happen this year is still an open question, but it will happen before things turn around. The other option, to keep the dollar strong would also keep things going for a little while longer but the eventual decline would be much more severe and be more difficult to contain. So, the US had better steel itself for a decline in its economy and its dollar no matter what actions TPTB take.
What will this do for the price of gold? Well, at some point the serious investors (and later the masses, who always miss the boat) will awaken to the fact that gold has been so suppressed for so long that, at the very least, it would be a good vehicle for wealth preservation and may even show a profit while the world rights itself. When every other market is in decline, where else can people put their money and have any hope of preserving their wealth. The explosion in the price will come when the masses start to jump on the bandwagon, as happened in 1980. They'll be a little skittish at first because they've been burned so many times in the past. Then greed will take over as always and away we go. When will this happen? I wish I knew. But I'm a patient man who has followed this forum for over two years now, and I believe that the tide will turn our way as inevitably as the ocean tide turns. If I was pressed, I would predict that the price of gold will pass $300 by late summer and continue on an upward trend from that point onwards. Will it surpass its previous record within the next two years? I doubt it but who knows how quickly and serverely the tide will turn?
Pandagold
(01/23/01; 15:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46251)
>>>=========$260=========>>>
>>>=========$260=======è>>
As others have pointed out, one cannot give a meaningful reason for estimating the POG at one small moment in time, and fairly close to the date of estimation, except that if there has been little or no volatility, it is reasonable to expect it to be near what it is at the time of the estimate.
However, many have taken this option, as would be expected. What I propose doing, therefore, is to give my worse case scenario, as above. My reason for so doing is one of ‘hedging’ (a sensitive word I know here in the castle precincts).
You see, most of my money is riding in the hope of a soon higher gold price. Therefore, if it swings the other way, more than I would like to expect, at least, I will have something to look forward to.
I haven't been able to go back and see all the contributions, so I have taken a guess that I am the lowest. I couldn't bring myself to go any lower, I tried but it was too painful.
John Doe
(01/23/01; 15:14:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46250)
@ Randy Tower - hyperinflation
All things being held constant (and continuous monetary expansion is roughly a given in this regime), whether or not we have high inflation rates/hyperinflation ultimately depends upon whether the average Joe retains his job and is thereby able to continue borrowing, or at the very least able to service past debt obligations.
If FED et al can manage the economy without massive layoffs, then high inflation rates can be sustained. This does not imply NO layoffs, but perhaps additional increases in unemployment of between 5 and 10 points. The math requires simply that "enough" workers are still gainfully employed to keep the game afloat.
But a downturn of larger proportions, either badly managed (or beyond management), with unemployment rates reaching into the 15%+ range will preclude sustaining inflationary dynamics. In this case, I believe the opposite will occur - deflationary effects in nearly all areas. FED will try to avoid this, as it more seriously runs counter to the banking/finance industry's interests, i.e., inflating away their assets is largely preferable to driving an unmanageable proportion of their assets into default and/or bankruptcy.
It's an interesting debate, the outcome of which is still not at all clear. On one hand, the entire basis of the fiat monetary system consists of continuous above economic output trend debt expansion, i.e., monetary inflation. On the other hand, the banking system goes further and further in the hole the higher the rate of monetary inflation and the lower the rate at which debt is offered to the marketplace, all the anti-inflation psych-ops and manipulations notwithstanding.
FED whould like to keep us in perpetual limbo between the two: inflate enough to offset the increasing real weight of debt burdens, keep loans rates low to enable the debt expansion and debt servive, yet keep economic activity high enough to allow absorption of some of the really bad loans over time. It can't be done. The sheer, exponentially-increasing weight of the balancing act will swing the system to an extreme sooner or later. FED will attempt to guide towards inflation, if possible. Yet, "if possible" may not be possible. And even then, the lesser of two very bad outcomes is still a very bad outcome. Either way, FED's immediate clients, banking and finance, will not escape unscathed.
On net, when the piper is to be paid, most of the country, including the banks, will be better served going the inflation route. Savers and those on fixed income will be ill-served (so what else is new under a fiat system). Gold should hold its own should the price suppression ever end. Just maybe the suppressors are waiting for the same thing -- an answer as to which way the system will tilt. And under deflation, where all debt is suspect, money, real money, is THE asset to hold. There is no money more real than gold. Unfortunately, here in limbo, gold has few friends, some disinterested parties, and many enemies.
Journeyman
(01/23/01; 15:12:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46249)
YESSS! @mhchuck, Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
mhchuck, Stocks'nLies,
Nice stuff!
High regards,
Journeyman
P.S. Stocks'nLies - - - your handle's too long!!!
Gold Explorer
(01/23/01; 14:56:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46248)
>>>========= $267.30 ==========>
I believe gold will break out in February/March after an interest rate reduction inspired stock market rally proves unfounded. The dollar will then resume its recent downtrend after putting in the October 27th high. Investors will begin to sense that a deteriorating dollar environment (resulting increased inflation), lacklustre stock performance, and then treasury yields heading back up will signify the growing probability of a recession in 2nd half of this year. They will lose confidence in Greenspan's ability to contain the markets. Foreigners are/will continue repatriating funds as the dollar falls against other currencies (primarily D-mark, S-frank, B-pound & Euro). Investors will once again focus attention on the troubles in the Middle East and repercussions for oil. Futures prices for gasoline will start to reflect the needs of this coming summer. Investors will begin to also focus on personal & corporate debt that has been growing at almost twice the pace of GDP since 1994. More articles will be written by the news media concerning the reduction in home equity due to debt consolidation of credit cards and speculation in the stock market. Key to all this will be the dollar. It's my feeling that the fed will continue inflating the money supply to attempt a soft landing and to minimize stock portfolio damage - a 180 degree approach to that of Japan who's aim was to protect Japanese savings. This will act to prolong the bear market in equities into 2002 or so.
All in all, I see 2001 as being the year that gold will break out for many various reasons. And of course when it does, it will go much higher than expected by the majority because of the large short position held by banks, financial houses, producers, and speculators. I see it easily hitting $600, retracing to around $400 before hitting $800 plus by 2003 - 2005. What we have here is a wonderful opportunity to buy and hold.
Canuck Gold
(01/23/01; 14:53:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 46247)
>>>========= $265.30 ==========>
The POG has been trading within a very narrow range over the last few weeks and I think the trend will continue for at least the next 3 days. With today's auction out of the way, one could be forgiven for thinking that the POG should rise given the 4.8 times oversubscription but the shorts won't let that happen, with the price slowly declining as the week progresses.
CG
Pandagold
(01/23/01; 13:38:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46245)
Mhchuck, Journeyman, Gresham et al
And to all those who read, but did not respond (hope you didn't head for the bunker)Life is too precious.
First let me say I appreciate all who have responded to my last posting. I am aware it was a little controversial and perhaps touched a few nerves. But, I assure you all, my intentions are well meaning, and I respect all of you, and your opinions, plus I can well understand if you find this, and other of my postings sometimes a little hard to accept.
The theme of the message can be disturbing, almost like being told you have terminal cancer. If that were the case, what do you do about it? What can you do?
You can pray - that you won't suffer too much, or that they will find a cure pretty quickly, or that the doctor was mistaken. Or you can just get on with your life, what is left of it, and enjoy the important things and stop worrying about those stupid silly things that took up your mind, time, and energy before.
I looked at all of your comments, and I can see that you are all way off beam. This is either because you genuinely are not able to 'see', or, as Mr Gresham puts it, you are just trying to draw me out to get me to confirm what you really believe.
Now I know my fellow Knight Sir Gresham, says he knows, but I draw him out (tiltmy lance) by the challenge that I don't believe he does.
This is wonderful verbal jousting, isn't it Sir Gresham.
In my time I spent teaching, I found that if you gave enough pointers and allowed the student to apply his/her own research, and reasoning, the student would eventually
draw the right conclusions. They would then be his/her conclusions, and would be accepted.
It is perfectly all right to be explicit about hard facts, things tangible like in science and physics. Even then, the students must conduct their own experiments, before their mind can truly accept.
Then there are other parts of science, or mathematics from which a 'factual' statement can be arrived at but, because of its immensity is difficult to comprehend and accept.
For example: There are more molecules in one teaspoon of water, than there are teaspoons of water in the oceans.
or, There are more stars in the universe than grains of sand in all the beaches of the world; or, If someone offered you a billion dollars if you would hand count it for him, you would have to decline, because you could not live long enough - even if you had a full life ahead of you.
I know these things, and I say yeh, that is so. But my mind struggles to accept. I would still strain to have a go at counting that $billion( just joking)
So, I will not be drawn. I am not being flippantly evasive to give a feeling of superiority. You tempt me, however, I have given you one of my reasons, but there are others.
I rest my lance
rc
(01/23/01; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46244)
Background - Can it be stopped?
@Pandagold
Agree with you but for one point when you ask " Can it be Stopped?. And the answer is a resounding NO. "
I disagree with that one. Because nothing is eternal. And it will end up in disaster. Not only for them but for all of us as well. It will be our punishment to let ourselves put to sleep.
Mr Gresham
(01/23/01; 13:08:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46243)
von Braun
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/vonBraun.html
Don't miss the fun at the Rocket School
derivatives: are they all a "short" on the dollar, in some fundamental sense? (In other words, all denominated in dollars. "If I win, I collect. If I lose, I hedge again and hope for a reversal/bailout.")
Are some of them a bankrupt's "Hail Mary" bets?
Pandagold: the tight range of gold's trading. Of course the dollar or two moves are economically insignificant -- unless someone has bet some high volumes on very tight spreads. I am still curious to see some stats gathered on the tightness of the trading ranges intraday within the long downward slope. Did gold used to have 2% variations intraday regularly ten years back, and now you find only 1/2% variations with the same frequency? Know what I mean? Mark of control...
(I used to track this for stocks -- 1994 seemed the most low volatility year in memory, followed by the now-legendary breakout.)
When you see stats like ~$8 trillion in new debt brought only ~2 trillion in GDP growth, you know that disproportionalities abound and are accepted by the moguls at the top. Is one of them: It takes 5x as many gold contracts written now to move the price down a dollar? (But they're now at this late date contracts not written in all economic seriousness of having to pay off with your own real $?)
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape
(01/23/01; 13:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46242)
Pandagold: Your post about the manipulators....
does not upset me. Indeed I agree with most of what you said. It is a conspiracy of circumstance at best, at worst (and I feel most likely) a multi generational cabal skewing the perceptions of the public regarding all that is gold.
Forthwith, I can only speak from an American perspective.
Gold represents greed. (Never mentioned is that gold is VALUE since it alone possesses a global track record of 6000 years of INTRINSIC WORTH! Unbridled greed in my opinion is reprehensible, however greed is undeniably a major motivating factor behind the "success" (as imperfect as it may be) of capitalism.)
Gold is antiquated and serves no purpose in a modern economy. (We've probably all experienced this bias, perhaps even to the point of being called "flat earthers". Some of us may try to mask our true motives and thus gain acceptance back within the fold by buying and collecting antique gold coins for their love of the "numismatic and historical" qualities! The rationale for the CBs holding gold is never explained, Fort Knox is at best a euphemism for the term "impenetrable", and the POG is no longer routinely given to the public in the financial reporting on the evening newscast.)
Gold is evil. (This could take forever to list examples, so I'll just stick with those of a more modern (i.e. liberal) sensibility. Gold mining ruins the environment! It trashes the landscape, poisons our rivers, shakes baby bunnies in their dens during midday slumber, enslaves and oppresses third world workers, etc., etc. This also is how one profession (geologists) is increasingly portrayed as evil personified in the entertainment media, whether searching for gold, oil, uranium.....while invariably being greedy, murderous, agents of exploitation, etc., etc. The future trend is "positive" though, since all the bug and bunny worshippers have made domestic exploration and production nearly impossible, we are now graduating legions of new geologists, the ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGIST, repleat with red cape and blue tights with an emblazoned EG on their chests.....ready to work.....for the government!)
Enough of my venting. Please excuse my rantings. I'm off to load more wood in the stove.....wood that I cut, hauled, split and stacked......wood that used to be the home to winged marvels of bird and insect ilk, and cute furry mammals in need of extensive, protracted orthodontic care.....wood that created nuts....and shaded the hippy nuts so intoxicated with each others body odor....wood that will now warm my home.....while spewing lethal carbon dioxide to assure global warming.....so I won't have to heat my home by.....cutting, hauling, splitting, and stacking wood ANYMORE!
I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony, perfect harmony..............
Old Yeller
(01/23/01; 12:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46241)
Pandagold#46225,Journeyman#46231
Excellent,thought provoking posts.
In a strange co-incidence for me,this is almost the exact same debate I had with close friend;just last night.There is something out there, there is no doubt about it.On this aspect we could agree.Just what is it? That's another story.
In my opinion,our collective destinys are by driven by a force or forces which are creating the unexplainable peramutations in so many financial markets; not just the gold market.The big question is:
a.Do "they" have a controlled, all-encompassing plan that is unfolding as scripted?
b.Is the plan wobbling and getting off kilter.Perhaps different players are now pursuing conflicting directions?Are the use of paper derivatives in so many markets,not just the gold market,reaching the end of their effective timelines?
c.Are "they" now just flying by the seat of their collective pants.
Time will tell,truth will always win out in the end.It's just that sometimes the wait is so agonizing.
Pandagold
(1/23/2001; 12:19:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46240)
Mr Gresham (Silver)
I support your theory that silver will move first ( I mean, significantly) We are apt to think movement of a couple of dollars in gold at the moment is movement because it has been 'dead' for so long. This only deceives us, and gives false excitement.
It will also be a good sign that gold will move soon after. For gold to stand alone would be a littele too embarrassing for the manipulators. Having said that, they are so brazen and hard faced these days because they have made themselves 'untouchable' that I wouldn't put anything past them.
Mr Gresham
(1/23/2001; 12:07:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 46239)
Mhchuck
Good assemblage of quotes and argument!
Makes me think of the ways in which a "King" can manipulate his subjects. King Canute could not order the tide to recede, but other "kings" have, and do, order their subjects to labor upon ridiculous projects, building only the king's ego and monuments.
Kings have ordered the building of dykes to hold back the tides. Now, that works, as long as the laborers are willing to keep them up.
WW2 created a national unity and solid loyalty to the U.S. Federal entity. This loyalty (subservience) would be written on the Asset side of any controlling elite's balance sheet.
The labor of U.S. taxpayers, as well as their savings and now those of speculative worldwide investors, can be conscripted via the Fed (dollar), Wall St., and USTreasury, to weigh in on whatever cause it is temporarily needed. Not forever, as gold is forever, but to sustain a scheme that will allow the knowledgeable to escape with the greatest appropriation of resources.
Gold is a solid asset, but so (temporarily) is the capitalized labor of a brainwashed public. One can be set against the other as needed, in order to accomplish a more profitable objective. The anthill model of society, very useful, eh?
silver first
(1/23/2001; 12:01:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46238)
>>>========= $263.90 ==========>
In false anticipation of Greenspan's imminent magic, gold will be sold down for the expected needle infusion into the US equity markets as per the late January Fed meeting. Only after January 26th will investor sentiment turn to gold and precious metals as the Fed easing turns out to cause the rally to fizzle. "Silver first" because the silver market is in a better position to move due to its larger short position and smaller inventories. A sharp move in silver may be a precursor to a rally for gold.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/23/2001; 11:59:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46237)
NY Fed Reserve President gives green light to inflation
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010123/l23239761.html
NY President William McDonough offered a window into his mind when he told the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, "There's a tendency sometimes for central bankers to be too uniquely involved in fighting inflation rather than realising that economic growth is what it's all about."
Sure, he gives necessary lip service to price stability, but it is precisely that when faced with competing interests/objectives. And given the size of the U.S. federal government, "pushing on a string" becomes somewhat easier to do...like a frozen rope. Do you grasp this properly? Perhaps now you can gain insight into the real meaning behind the Treasury Department's mantra regarding the "strong dollar policy". It is an internationally directed signal to foster confidence in future fiscal austerity regarding, specifically, issuance of new Treasuries.
Make no mistake. "We shall have the hyperinflation."
mhchuck
(1/23/2001; 11:47:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46236)
Voodoo Economics; My answer to Cavan Man's question.
I don't think it's hard to understand what is happening with gold today. All one needs to do is read some Keynes, and finish up with Alan Greenspan's "Gold And Economic Freedom" (1967). I think this would be sufficient basic knowledge.
It's so ironic that Alan Greenspan, who authored one of the most insightful short papers that any economist has ever written in "Gold and Economic Freedom," in which he exposes the welfare state and it's relationship to gold, has somehow been seduced by it, and become its chief executor. I cannot answer the question as to why Mr. Greenspan defected, I'll even allow for the possibility (albeit a small one) that he might even have positive designs to shape a brighter future.
I will take a stab at Cavan Man's question as presented by MK: "Why doesn't he do something?" But first, I must tell you, during the past two decades my efforts at 'saving' have been mocked, and so too have been my beliefs, so I want to reveal by whom and why.
The reason Mr. Greenspan doesn't do anything, (here comes my stab) is that in order to attain and maintain his position, and the perception of the many that he is the most powerful man in the world, it was required of him by his superiors that he take an oath of allegiance to uphold the doctrine of 'Voodoo Economics.'
Following are some examples by which I substantiate my claim that Mr. Greenspan, who at one time, as MK stated, "was one of us," is now of this other school.
"My main concern today is with a permanent improvement in the international monetary
system. But I cannot refrain from making a digression to speak about the sagging euro. I do believe that two measures would be of great help. The first would be for the European
Central Bank to put a floor to the euro against the dollar. And because the future may bring the other problem of a too rapid fall of the dollar, I would put a ceiling on it as well. I would start today with a floor at 85 cents and a ceiling at 115 cents, but over time it would be possible and desirable to narrow these levels substantially. Of course I am aware that such bands will require that monetary policy take account somewhat of the balance of payments and the exchange rate. Optimally, intervention should: (1) have a clearly-stated objective (e.g., support the floor or ceiling); (2) take place in the forward as well as the spot market; (3) not be sterilized; and (4) be concerted with partners."
Robert Mundell (winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics)
Comment: Are these the words of a "free market" economist, or the mumbling incantations of a practitioner of 'Voodoo Economics?'
The metal gold might not possess all the theoretical advantages of an artificially regulated standard, but it could not be tampered with and proved reliable in practice."
John Meynard Keynes
Comment: Keynes might just as well have said, "If it is our intention to tamper, then we must be rid of the gold standard."
Mercy, do these men tamper. In fact, they are the greatest tamper artists of all time. So much so, that a major city in Florida is named after them. And furthermore, "they" have even "arranged" it so that the Super Bowl is being played there this year! Journeyman, I would like your opinion---- Can the "Raven" truly be perched upon the shoulder of gold after having served as the ultimate store of wealth since the beginning of recorded history? Or perhaps you think it wisest and most prudent to walk in the footsteps of "Giants?" You really don't have to answer Sir Journeyman, although there are many that would pay close attention if you did. (LOL)
Sorry for the digression, back to Mr. Keynes.
" A Gold standard means, in practice, nothing but to have the same price level and the same money rates (broadly speaking) as the United States. The whole object is to link rigidly the City (London) and Wall Street. I beg the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England and the nameless others who settle our destiny in secret to reflect that this may be a dangerous proceeding" JMK
Comment: I think what we need is "Ghostbusters."
"The reader will observe that I retain for gold an important role in our system. As an ultimate safeguard and as a reserve for sudden requirements, no superior medium is yet available. But I urge that it is possible to get the benefits of gold without irrevocably binding our legal-tender money to follow blindly all the vagaries of gold and future unforeseeable fluctuations in its real purchasing power" (huh!) JMK
Comment: Well I never! Do the insightful words of Edward R. Murrow apply here? That "The obscure we see eventually, the completely apparent takes longer?" Couldn't Mr. Keynes see, that "all the vagaries of gold and the future unforeseeable fluctuations in its real purchasing power would be caused by what he terms "our legal-tender money"? Or was he just preaching 'Voodoo Economics?'
More Keynes…….."If the Federal Reserve Board intends to maintain the value of the dollar at a level which is irrespective of the inflow and outflow of gold, what object is there in continuing to accept at the mints gold which is not wanted, yet costs a heavy price? If the United States mints were closed to gold, everything, except the actual price of the metal, could continue precisely as before. Confidence in the future stability of the value of gold depends therefore on the United States being foolish enough to go on accepting gold which it does not want, and wise enough, having accepted it, to maintain it at a fixed value. This double event might be realized through the collaboration of a public understanding nothing with a Federal Reserve Board understanding everything."
.
Comment: Remember "Ethnic Cleansing" and the Balkans? We are now in the process of an attempted "AUric cleansing," so let us not stand by idly and allow this crime and injustice to the world to continue. This is not about profits, they are secondary, (so now you know why most of my acquaintances hate me) as something more important is at stake: This is about GOOD and EVIL. There is a dichotomous nature to man's soul, and each person knows innately which rules his/her mind and heart. And so as it benefits EVIL to travel in disguise, it's best for the GOOD to likewise not reveal their true self, for evil seeks to 'destroy' good, while good only wishes to 'understand' evil.
I think it was Edmund Burke who said, " The only thing necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing." GATA is doing Something, Bill Murphy and friends have shown they are relentless in the pursuit of truth.
(Late edit: Pandagold, your assessment is right on, but are you suggesting we do "nothing" and hope they are right? Is what is going on in the markets, including gold "right." Are abrogations of freedom, mass murderers in the second half of the 20th century, epidemic high school shootings in a cultural landscape created by their policies "right"? How long do you want me to go on?)
Who ya gonna call?
P.S. I ain't afraid of no ghosts. (this sentence is a lie)
mhchuck
Mr Gresham
(1/23/2001; 11:44:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46235)
Pandagold, or should I say "Number Six"?
Of course we know who "They" are, Pandagold. We ARE "They". (Or is that "We IS 'Them'"?)
We're keeping mum to get you going.
We just want to find out who YOU are, and what you know...
( * * )
.( > )
..( (__) )
...~~~~~~
(First attempted "Big Smiley" graphic on USAGold in how many years?)
And, lest I offend, I shall include my "serious note" herein: If you're talking about the publicly-researchable "backgrounds", then you most likely are referring to memberships in private international organizations that most of us have heard of previously, to which most U.S. Presidents and their high administration officials have belonged. And yes, the coincidence is impressive, but we have not simply accepted the conclusions of various authors and theorists.
The conclusions about their agendae, their resulting "effectiveness", possible theological undercurrents, and what we peons ought do about it all, are the discussions we have been having Stateside for some years now. There are many strands to dealing with the possibilities of such discovery, and a healthy individual will try to set out upon a measured pace, in good, trustworthy company.
It is upon such a journey as this that one begins to wonder if one knows the difference between a closed mind, an open mind, and a mind so open that everything gathered immediately falls right out...
Farfel
(1/23/2001; 11:42:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46234)
Gold Realities...
The set-up for disappointment began last week, with the release of the COT report indicating a tremendous long position by Commercials, hand in hand with a tremendous short position by the Specs.
Then yesterday, we saw the artificial run-up in the XAU, an increase of some 6%. The run-up raised hopes of many small gold investors as it usually foreshadows an analogous run-up in the POG.
Then this morning the news was even brighter, with the BOE results indicating that bidders attempted to buy FIVE TIMES as much gold as was made available in the auction. So much for the fraudulent claim that nobody is interested in gold today.
Yet, the BOE's gold "Dutch Auction" is designed to ensure that the LOWEST BID succeeds as the final sales price, so we may only guess at how high the bidding went for some of the gold metal. That is because the BOE's gold auction was designed expressly to SUPPRESS the price of gold, not raise it, and it is categorically clear that the BOE has aided in attempting to cap the gold price on behalf of major international bullion bank "friends" holding huge short posiitons in the metal.
SO what are we left with this morning? A large number of disillusioned gold longs, many who are dumping their gold stocks this morning.
In that sense, the auction served its purpose, by providing more gold at artifically suppressed prices to the gold shorts, who are in a hole they cannot escape from...and providing them with cheap gold stock shares from weak disillusioned longs who capitulated this morning. No doubt gold short extraordinaire Barrick Gold or its fellow partner in crime, Anglogold, are happy as pigs in shit, as they can aim their sights at yet another depressed gold miner, and pick them up for pennies on the dollar. Such has been the strategy of the leading gold mining companies, aiding and abetting a financial conspiracy of gargantuan proportions.
However beware drawing attention to the anti-gold machinations of the bullion banks as they will respond with blank stares of bewilderment, and in the manner in which they persuaded millions to pour monies into dot.com tulipmania and ruin their lives, they will deny the existence of all factual evidence, instead providing all variety of rationalizations for gold's demise that constitute no more puff fantasies.
So what is the solution for forever demoralized gold longs?
How much patience can anybody muster in the face of a financial establishment that dissembles the obvious Truth within the world of gold?
When does gold rocket to a price that accurately reflects its true equilibrium value?
Of course, there is no way to know definitively when that day comes. But it is categorically clear that we are on the precipice of a major financial earthquake, that is not merely the ideological belief of "goldbug-ism," but rather the simple reality of a super sized debt economy, whose fulcrum (the US Dollar) is slowly and steadily weakening, thus discouraging foreign funds inflows into domestic markets...while at the same time, domestic inflows rapidly dry up as national unemployment ramps upward, thus diminishing the supply of domestic funds for indigenous capital investment.
In other words, gold is heading for the stratosphere, at any moment, and there is no amount of jawboning and propaganda that will prevent that.
The gold shorts are bankrupt, not tomorrow, but today, and there is nothing they can do about it. It is karmic inescapable fate, and one that is well-deserved.
Thanks
F*
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/23/2001; 11:40:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46233)
Questioning the market's "common sense"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010123/n23458109_2.html
Bond prices rise (signalling increased demand) in the face of expectations of an event that would surely lead to a "shrinking" of these bonds....meaning, purchasing power upon maturity that is diminished by an inflated dollar.
EXCERPT from the article:
NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries [prices] rose on Tuesday as expectations Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will continue to slash interest rates buoyed shorter notes while long-term bonds rebounded from a two-day slide. ....The powerful Fed chief will address the Senate Budget Committee on Thursday, and traders anticipate he will prep the markets for an aggressive interest rate cut next week aimed at keeping a slowing economy from a deeper slump.
----
Go figure.
Get real. Get sense. Get gold.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(1/23/2001; 11:24:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 46232)
@Tree in the forest - The Ark of the Covenant
More than three years ago, discovery of the sacred cubit
utilized for constructing the Ark of the Covenant was
announced. In October 1997 on Yom Kippur (the day of atonement), Freemasonry published its finding in the
"Suffolk Mason," shortly after renamed the "American
Mason;" address: P.O. Box 645, Sag Harbor, New York 11963.
The cubit (measure) utilized is the British/American twelve
inch foot! The measurements of the Ark's dimensions "speak"
its story in cosmology; Sun, Moon, Earth = Father, Mother,
Child - Spirit, Soul, Body ... and so forth...
.. Also, the Cherubim molded into and upon the mercy seat
relate to the four fixed signs of the Zodiac - see
Ezekiel's vision; see also John's vision in Revelation,
where John was translated and saw into the throne - 'in the
day of the Lord.' He saw the Ark and the four living
creatures - Lion, Ox, Man and Eagle.
"And it shall come to pass, when ye (Israel) be multiplied
and increased in the land, in those days (i.e. days of
restoration), saith the Lord, they shall say no more 'The
ark of the covenant of the Lord:' neither *shall it
come to mind: neither shall they remember it; neither shall
they *visit it; *neither shall that be done any more. ..."
(Jeremiah 3:16-18)
Notes:
* shall say no more, 'The ark', &c. The ark was till
in the land in the days of this prophecy (2 Chron. 35:3);
but it was to disappear with the broken covenant, of which
it was the symbol.
* visit it. This is conclusive of the fact that it was
burnt together with the Temple (as it is not included in
the excepted things, in 2 Kings 25:9, 13-15), not
withstanding the Jewish tradition recorded in 2 Macc. 2:4-
8, and the impossible stories of its being taken over to
North Africa, Contantinople, or Ireland.
* neither shall that be done, &c. = neither shall it be
made any more. It disappeared together with the covenant,
of which it was the symbol (8: 9; 12:7. Ps.132. 13,14). The
reason follows in verse 17. The Lords throne will be
substituted for it: the reality will take the place of the
Shekinah.
These notes excerpted from The Companion Bible, p.1021.
These notes were written by its author in the year 1912,
and he passed away
in 1913. Therefore, the author had no knowledge of the
present restoration of Israel. Nor, did he know the Ark's
construction was measured to reflect our solar system - the
heavenly spheres. A true visionary.
Prophecy becoming fulfilled in our day! Exciting.
From Andrew at the Prophecy Group.
==================================================
Where is the other Ark?
Journeyman
(1/23/2001; 11:03:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46231)
Almost total agreement but less than total control @Pandagold msg#: 46226
Hi Panda!
I nearly agree with almost everything you posted in your msg#: 46226 on "Backgrounds." This is highly unusual for me.
Except I think you way over-estimate "their" effectiveness. Most of humanity's delusions of control come from pre-chaos theory (now "complex phenomena") thinking, usually rooted in the analogies developed by physics.
Because physics was so successful, in what some writers call "physics envy," economists, sociologists, etc. tried to adapt the older pre-quantum physics models to their subject fields with less than spectacular success.
The euro has stumbled through. So far. But without a sick dollar, how far would it have gotten?
What we see here is what has always been seen in history when irredeemable paper replaces gold. These results are best described by Andrew Dickson White's 1912 classic, Fiat Money Inflation in France:
"Thus was the history of France [during the 1793 paper
currency debacle] logically developed in obedience to
natural laws; such has, to a greater or less degree,
always been the result of irredeemable paper, created
according to the whim or interest of legislative
assemblies rather than based upon standards of value
permanent in their nature [gold] and agreed upon
throughout the entire world. Such, we may fairly
expect, will always be the result of them until the
fiat of the Almighty shall evolve laws in the universe
radically different from those which at present
obtain." p. 109
What we've been seeing ever since 1913 is mad scrambling crisis management to maintain the current "establishment," attempting to over-come the previous mistake of ancestors abbrogating gold for relatively quick profits. But to hell with posterity. Or, I suppose, "they" could have made the mistake honestly.
France scrambled. The U.S. scrambled beginning in 1929 thruout the depression. Recently Asia scrambled. Russia scrambled. Brazil and Ecuador scrambled. Argentina is scrambling, and it looks like U.S.A. is about to again.
The delusions of control the NWO folks had have been crumbling and will continue to do-so because even an atomic clock, one of the most precise instruments ever developed, gets out of sync with it's siamese twin over time. And economics, containing as it does more than a dollup of "psychology," isn't anywhere near as precise as an atomic clock.
In particular and even in the relatively precise field of physics, prediction is difficult, especially of the future. It's not much different for NWO folks. Even Greenspan only claims 60% accuracy.
Open your eyes, Panda. TPTB indeed heavily influence many things, but they are far from "in control." Things are much too complex for that.
Else you must really fear: Who would engineer an Asian contagion that no one anticipated? Etc.
Regards,
Journeyman
P.S. Your observations on how we should view all the details of this and that media fad are spot-on!
Mr Gresham
(1/23/2001; 10:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 46230)
Saxulum^ #46216
Quite a first post, Sir! You have many windmills turning now -- I know I will go through today pondering those long-term entanglements that WW2 left us with. Europe under occupation, U.S. plans to replace European powers with its own, U.S. makes Europe a storage offer it can't refuse.
Decades later, the parties attempt to wriggle their ways through the "loopholes" in those contracts, while not a word breathed to the public. To what point?!?
By some Occam's razor of simplicity, your outline fits much of the known factual landscape. Say on, you and others, on this, and let us see if this explains the CB selling/taking up scenario very well.
(Dutch? Our new comrade reminds me of Belgian and his sharp insights. Something about growing up near all that tulip-fertilized soil? With some ancient abbott's gold buried just under the next hill?)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/23/2001; 10:33:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46229)
The Federal Reserve adds more reserves to nation's banking system
Half collaterallized by agencies, half by Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, the Fed today participated in two-day repurchase agreements to add $2 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system.
Further, the Fed saw fit to add another $481 million in permanent reserves through outright purchase, seeking bids on U.S. Treasury Inflation-Indexed Securities coupons (for dates from July 2002 - April 2029) to be delivered Wednesday.
When you eventually discover that you need/desire it most, you will either have gold, or you will not. Your actions "today" will determine your fate. None other will act for you....but Centennial stands ready to assist you. Give them a call.
Journeyman
(1/23/2001; 10:23:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46228)
Why, do you think?
CNBC reports that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the power crisis situation in
California. -CNBC, Jan. 23, 2001, ~12:16PM EST
Regards, j.
Topaz
(1/23/2001; 10:13:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46227)
Send in the Clowns
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Mucho teeth-gnashing and palm-wringing lunchtime London, Wot?
Pandagold
(1/23/2001; 10:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 46226)
Backgrounds
I wonder how many of you take the trouble to look into the backgrounds of the people who control the CB's and financial institutions around the world - in particular our, so called, Western Democracies.
Reading your postings, I would say almost none.
If you did, you would see there was a very strong link. There is something, which binds them, far stronger than their ‘apparent’ national identity.
I hate to get at you fellows, because I know you are all trying, and wanting, to understand just what is going on.
But, and I know here I am going to upset a few of you (perhaps a lot of you). You are so brainwashed by the system, that you don't even know it. You think you have free minds, but you don't. Research those backgrounds and observe those links – some direct, some indirect, but links they are.
You are like a crowd at a wrestling match - oohing and ouching with every, what appears to be, painful hold, or arm blow.
It's all just a game, A GAME! That painful grimace (unless there has been an accident), or, uttered, hateful remark is not to be taken seriously.
It is just the same in the political arena. Most of these guys are buddy, buddies, and drinking and laughing with each other later at their favourite watering hole, or associated lodge. They 'joust', hurl insults, and decry for your entertainment (because that is what you expect) and to give the whole charade some authenticity.
Like in all groups of humanity, even within close families, there are some personal genuine dislikes, but this is often not to do with what side of the political fence they are sitting on, but often to do with ego's, personalities, and just plain positioning.
As you will know, even among Arthur's Knights, and Robin Hood's band of merry men, there was rivalry and jealousy.
But they were united in one cause. They thought and fought as one when the chips were down. Note that - because THAT IS THE KEY! Once again – THAT IS THE KEY!
This 'brotherhood' extends beyond national boundaries. Before we go any further, I am not referring to anything Masonic. The fact that most of them are almost certainly masons, as were the signers of the US Declaration of Independence, most US presidents (excluding |Kennedy) and the vast majority of world political leaders, is not the real cloth, which binds. Though it is used by the 'elite'.
In case there are doubters amongst you, about the strength of these oath binding relationships, there are a number of recorded incidents during military engagements like the American civil war, and American revolution, where an opposing officer's life was spared just in time by him giving the brotherhood sign, and which was, fortunately for him, recognised by his victor.
Someone mentions about the Dutch and other European, or from wherever, sending their gold 'for safe keeping' to the US. My dear fellow knights, they pass this stuff from one to another, and sell and buy for each other with well-orchestrated movements. They have highly professional choreographers. They are wizards at manipulation, and subterfuge.
Most of all they have international media at their disposal. Even the media may appear to compete with each other, and so they do – up to a point. But when they are required to stand as one STAND AS ONE THEY DO.
In spite of what you may think, knowing this is not going to change a thing. They are not going to get their ‘comeuppance’ (whatever that is) one day - at least, not this side of the 'Pearly Gates'. And they are not afraid of that, because, to them, heaven and hell is right here on Earth. There is no life hereafter. To them, THIS IS IT!.
The reason I am trying to get this across is not that you should worry, but that you should stop wasting time and energy trying to figure out, and make sense of the political, or economic scene. Things like - 'Bush said, or did this, Clinton said, or did that. The Belgian, Dutch, or UK Bank sold some gold, sent some gold, bought some gold bla bla. It can only make sense when you know and accept what they are up to. You have to understand the game plan, just as you only need to know THE TREND when investing.
These trivialities only have very small relevance, and almost certainly not the one that is put out for our consumption.
There is a clearly defined plan for a world order. Most influential nations are cooperating, whether they appear to be or not. Why, because the people who really shape their destiny, and almost certainly have control of their finances are 'bound' together (tightly). Agreed, there are some nations yet to be brought fully into the fold. But it is only a question of time.
Can it be stopped? A big resounding NO!. Not unless Christ returned to Earth and His Father allowed Him to win this time. But this is to assume what is happening is not God's wish. Alternatively, there is a world holocaust in which most of us perish and life starts again and there are enough people alive who have understood the cause, and are determined not to allow it again.
Neither of these options, to be honest, appeals, as they both scare the hell out of me for different reasons.
Whether, in the final analysis (I have said this before) it will be a good thing, I do not know. Neither do they, they just believe it will, and that it is their destiny to bring it to fruition. I merely pray to God, they are right.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(1/23/2001; 9:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 46225)
Bank of England Press Release -- for the Record -- "H M Government Gold Auction Result: 23 January 2001"
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pressreleases/2001/009.htm
The Bank of England announces that the gold on offer (approximately 25 tonnes or 803,600 ounces) has been allotted in full at a price of $268.00 per ounce. Details of the result are as follows:
Amount of gold on offer (approx.) ---- 803,600 oz
Amount applied for ---- 3,852,400 oz
Times covered ---- 4.8 times
Amount allotted to bidders ---- 805,600 oz
Allotment price ---- $268.00
[Randy's note: this is notable because it came in above the London AM Gold Fix which was $267.10. At this time I cannot tell you how many participants put in bids even higher than $268, but I can tell you that there were five entities who bid for gold at precisely this price, each of whom then received only one-third of the gold they were seeking (see the scaling factor below). Those who bid more got their order filled in total, those who bid less got nothing.]
Scaling factor at allotment price ---- 35.8035%
All accepted bids which were made at prices above the allotment price have been allotted in full at the allotment price. Valid bids made at the allotment price have been allotted an amount of gold equal to the amount bid for multiplied by the above scaling factor and rounded up to the nearest 400 ounces.
By close of business in London today, applicants whose bids have been successful in whole or in part will be notified by the Bank of England of the exact weight of the gold bars allotted to them and the amount payable in respect of their purchase. Payment must be made in US dollars to the Bank of England's account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, no later than 12 noon New York time on 25 January 2001.
On 3 March 2000, H M Treasury announced that, the Bank of England, on behalf of HM Treasury, is to sell approximately 150 tonnes of gold from the Exchange Equalisation Account in a programme of six auctions of around 25 tonnes each in the financial year 2000/2001 on the terms and conditions set out in an Information Memorandum which was published on 3 March 2000. This is the fifth auction in the programme of six. Auctions were held on Tuesday 23 May, Wednesday 12 July, Tuesday 19 September and Tuesday 7 November 2000. The remaining auction in this programme will be held on Wednesday 14 March 2001.
Topaz
(1/23/2001; 9:42:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 46224)
$......come on down!!
If logic EVER enters the minds of those who manage such things, who among them can logically subscribe to a strong US$ policy under the present circumstances?
It's almost a daily occurrence for large cap US company's to warn of profit shortfalls - the likes of Boeing are regularly getting knocked off by Airbus - comparative advantage is now talked about in terms of months rather than decades etc.
A quick look around my "enclave" reveals not one US made gadget, both non-pentium machines, screen, printer and scanner, are all locally assembled Asian manufacture. A look in the Garage reveals a Austro-Nippon hybrid steed and a British "thoroughbred".
Glancing out on the Mooring we find a "custom-built" MotorYacht as we Aussies of REAL worth look upon ANY "production" watercraft as rather crass! (NB Trail Guide) <wink>
(OK-OK, the last one was wishful thinking!)
The point of this exercise is to highlite how "uncompetitive" the US has been of late due largely to the "strong $ policy" - I would gladly fill all my nooks and crannies with US manufactured product, the problem is,
...."it's too friggin DEAR".....
And.....sadly....the NEW administration appears content to further sell US export potential short (with all the ramifications of same) for ONE reason only.......
To protect their Gold position.........D-UH!
USAGOLD
(1/23/2001; 9:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 46223)
"Gold Odyssey" Contest to end midnight. . .
A NEW WING TO HALL OF FAME: "2001 A Gold Odyssey: Predictions On the Upcoming Year from Round Table Members (As posted late January,
2001)."
I wanted to re-post the announcement on the New Wing to the Hall of Fame. It's been a great contest so far with several very strong entries. The New Wing may scare some off, but it may also encourage those with conviction to come forward.
Great to see the new posters. There is a well of information and talent out there that we haven't even begun to tap. Combine that with the pool of talent and brain power already present at this Table and I can safely say "Our best days are still ahead."
Thank you all . . . . . .MK
----------------------
Announcing a New Wing to Hall of Fame . . .
In conjunction with the contest now in progress, I have talked with Randy @ the Tower and we have decided to construct a
temporary wing of the Hall of Fame where all the contest entries will be enshrined for the duration of 2001. I suggest we call
this wing "2001 A Gold Odyssey: Predictions On the Upcoming Year from Round Table Members (As posted late January,
2001)." The winner and runners-up of course will be specially honored as they should be. The "Exhibit" will remain open until
December 31st, 2001 and we hope that the Table Round will find it a source of discussion (and yes, Auspec, even amusement)
for the duration. Under the circumstances and in the interest of fair play, anyone who has already made a post and would like to
alter it, we welcome you to do so. Please send a note to the sitemaster with the message number you want included in the Hall.
The Invisible Hand
(1/23/2001; 9:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46222)
BOE auction - a first analysis
This is from Gold-Eagle
How I see it
(Scruffy) Jan 23, 09:49
Well yeaterday I expressed some interest in watching
the BoE auction for a sign. I think the sign is
clear enough.
The auction by policy includes only those who are attempting to buy large amounts of gold for cash.
This has to be a significant factor.
The actual price paid was OVER spot and over the London
morning fix.
These power gold players asked to buy almost 5 times
as much gold as was offered. Let me repeat that another way. Some of the most significant gold players in the world wanted to pay OVER the going market price for gold, by five times the amount offered!
A few trading days ago TPTB would have us believe that
these folks could have bought all they wanted at $5
less per oz. What is wrong with this picture? Is it
possible that the spot market and the london fix are not honest measures of the real price one must pay if one wanted a significant amount of gold. If I am buying one gold eagle, $4 - $5 doesn't affect my decision much. If I was going to buy TONS of gold, a few pennies an ounce would be significant.
So what does all of this mean? I think we all need to determine for ourselves what it means. But predictably
I have my own opinion and I'll share it with you.
FACT: roughly 0.8 Moz sold above spot or fix.
There is still significant demand for actual physical gold. We are told otherwise, but the BoE auction proves that big players take opportunities to buy physical when it is available.
We are told that there is roughly 1.8 - million ounces of gold available for delivery on the COMEX. The demand
for gold at the auction was 3.8 million ounces! I smell a rat. 3.8 Moz demand at higher prices than the 1.8 Moz advertised as available on COMEX. There should be 3Moz of unfilled demand and COMEX is offering it at sale prices!! Does this make sense? NO!!!
I said last week that the steady decline in spot was familiar before the recent BoE auctions. I think I am beginning to see why. It is to get the price down for gold that may REALY be available for delivery. (Or as some suspect, to set the books straight on previous un reported transactions.)
Why don't those who put in bids at higher than spot just call up COMEX and get more of their order filed?
Last thought. Is the spot or fix prices that we see are a sham? Do they want us to believe that that is the real price? Why is it that we can buy a few coins or bars at spot + fabrication but the people who want LARGE quantities have to pay more? Don't the big guys usually get a price break? I have said it before so please forgive me for repeating. The way to screw these folks is to buy the physical at these prices. I cant do much nor can anyone I know. But if a few thousand of us keep buying one or ten or ? oz when we get a chance eventually we will have a few coins for our trouble and the folks manipulating the game will get squeezed.
BC BN
Scruffy
Buena Fe
(1/23/2001; 8:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 46221)
SEER (1/23/2001; 8:45:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46220)
Here......Here MR. Speaker.......I agree with SEER'S to the point observation!
SEER
(1/23/2001; 8:45:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 46220)
>>>===========$263,50=============>
There will be a downdraft to this price because the short traders cannot allow a perception that the gold trade will be different under George than it was under Bill. The long traders will fight to hold the recent low price. Perhaps after a week or two of this struggle things will be different.
elevator guy
(1/23/2001; 7:57:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46219)
@Pandagold, re: msg 46142
<SNIP>
The general theme, I must have misunderstood. It seemed to me you were drawing attention to all the ‘theys’ as being references to TPTB, which so many posts (including mine) often include, and that you did not believe such malevolent creatures exist.
<UNSNIP>
Well, Pandagold, I did not mean to even infer anything about TPTB, except to show how they, using the media, are capable in dividing the populace into little warring factions, divided over issues fed to us, and so designed to encourage us to "circle the wagons", and become entrenched in our fears and distrust.
Keeping the people divided is necessary, in order to prevent the common people from forming a collective fist, with which to assault TPTB.
TPTB paint themselves into the background of the picture, so as to obfuscate the fact of their existence. Kind of like "OZ", a little old man behind the curtain, pulling the levers of smoke and fire. The US media really never deals with this institution of the Federal Reserve, who owns it, or how it is that a private corporation managed to get control of this nations banking system, and issuance of currency.
In our school systems, children are encouraged to become fireman, doctors, nurses, policemen, and trade workers.
When has any American ever had a course in public school, on how to get a loan from the government, and start a bank?
I think it was one of the Bush clan, that did this very thing. I think it was called Silverado Savings and Loan, and only existed on paper, to my recollection. The Bush kid got his million dollar salary to be the C.E.O. for a year, and then it folded up in bankruptcy. Not Bush, mind you, just the corporation. Where does one learn to do these things? Does the common man even know how to begin? Does our education system even mention these pursuits to the common people?
So you can see how it is that TPTB have painted themselves into the background, so as to show that they dont exist. Anyone who thinks they do is just a leftist extremist, or a right-wing fanatic. Destroy the messenger. Discredit the opposition. Now everyone get back to work, theres no conspiracy, see, we told you so.
Yes, Pandagold, I definitely beleive TPTB exist. The Us vs Them satire was only to show that we are deluded into joining political groups that are a sham, and I wanted such polemic people who post here to see that they are little more than programmed pawns in a fake war, piting citicen against citicen.
JMB
(1/23/2001; 7:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46218)
Saxulum^
Your reasoning is excellent and yer English ain't so bad.
What's that little "do dad"(sp?) after the 'm' in your name? TIA, JMB^.....hey, I kinda like it!
Saxulum^
(1/23/2001; 7:30:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 46217)
>>>========= $269.75 ==========>
My earlier described scenario asks for a more or less stable paperprice for gold, so let's give it a few extra nickles after the UK auction...
Saxulum^
(1/23/2001; 7:27:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46216)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
Food for contemplating recent gold history?
Aah….MK made me crawl from under my little rock…
Note: English is not my mothertongue, so please bear with me.
My brain is not hindered by any significant knowledge of the PM market mechanics,
so feel free to correct any flaw in facts, assumptions or logica.
There has been quite a lot of speculation about where the Fed's and CB's physical gold is stored.
Fact is that, at the advent of WWII, several European CB's have shipped major parts of their holdings to the USA for safety reasons.
In a recent tv-interview a spokesman from the Dutch CB stated frankly that, up to this day, almost all of their physical gold was stored in the USA. He made it sound like that was the only logical place for a.o. (West-) European CB's, considering the turmoil in this area during the last century (including ColdWar aftermath).
So much of this gold is still not returned to their original owners.
Add to that the rumours about the Swiss CB's yearlong fruitless efforts to get theirs back in their own vaults,
then, all of a sudden, the windmills of my mind start to produce highly speculative scenario's.
The original (30's-40's) contracts for storage were made at a time that the dollar was backed by a fixed gold price of $35. It then sounds logical that there was a clause in those contracts that in certain circumstances, this gold could also be paid back in an equivalent of dollars.
Nixon's 1971 (?) decision to end the gold/dollar redemption, could thus have created a very complicated legal catch22 situation, where the legitimate owners (CB's) were no longer interested in getting dollars for their gold, whereas that would be the only logical choice for the FED (or Treasury?) from that moment on.
One escape for the legal owners could then be to simply sell this gold for the much higher free market value.
Could this have been a possible cause that has led to the Washington Agreement that seemed to suddenly have fallen out of the blue sky. Selling it in a disciplined way to avoid depressing the paper market price. And then buying the physical at the same or a little lower price? Controlling the papermarket price would be somehow necessary in such scenario.
Lots of details come to mind if only time allowed. (Is there no such thing as a derivative for time…?)
Could this scenario be a nasty little complicating facet in a smooth transition from a worn out dollar to a new Euro as world currency.
Is there somehow a foundation in there to build upon for an Odyssey of gold into the 21th century? I think so...
---
"Always assume incompetence, before looking for conspiracy." -- Machiavelli.
LeSin
(1/23/2001; 6:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46215)
GOLD AUCTION UK @ RIGGED
DJ MARKET TALK: Spot Gold Dn In Aftermath Of BOE Auction
Contact us in London on 44-20-7842-9358 or in New York on 201-938-4435.
1222 GMT (Dow Jones) Spot gold falls to $268.70/oz, from $269.25/oz, in first five minutes after BOE auction. 25 tons allotted at $268.00/oz, auction 4.8 times oversubscribed, from 3.1 times at last auction. (SPM)
1202 GMT (Dow Jones) Any spot gold rally after BOE gold auction seen temporary, unless prompts further Comex short-covering, says dealer. Mkt eyes price, level of subscription. Spot gold at $269.00/oz. (SPM)
Ducat
(1/23/2001; 5:50:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 46214)
(No Subject)
>>>======== $272.50 ===========>
With most of the major economic indicators having been reported and the Fed meeting a week away all eyes will be n the BOE gold sale today. That should not move the POG in either direction. The wildcard is the power shortage in California, the world's 9th largest economy, and the ripple effects it would have on the national economy. As the week wears on, Bush will probably be given his first major challenge as president to provide a solution.
Canuck
(1/23/2001; 5:50:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 46213)
Auction
4.8 oversubscribed; excellent, excellent.
Please confirm!!!!!!
RossL
(1/23/2001; 5:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46212)
Tree in the Forest -msg#: 46180
An idea
Referring to the Nostradamus quatrain that you quoted:
(Century III, Quatrain 13):
In the ark, lightning, gold and silver melted.
Of two prisoners, one shall eat up the other,
The greatest of the city shall be laid down,
When the navy that was drowned shall swim.
Couldn't the last line be a reference to all of those who are "underwater" with respect to gold and silver? That would put the interpretation of the last line more in context with the rest of the verse.
SteveH
(1/23/2001; 5:34:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 46211)
a look from FT
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3PWFVKAIC&live=true
eom
ET
(1/23/2001; 5:21:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46210)
John Brimelow
http://www.vdare.com/jbrimelow_WallStChangingCulture.htm
"The saga of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund
- its rise, fall, and the peculiar circumstances surrounding
its rescue in September 1998 - more and more appears
paradigmatic of Clinton Era finance. Esoteric and secretive
in action, operating through special relationships and
understandings, involving greed and ambition on
astonishingly uninhibited scale, and ultimately giving rise to
suspicions of ominous fusion between private commercial
objectives and the formulation of public policy, it lays out a
pattern likely to become all too familiar as documentation of
the period becomes more available.
"Nicholas Dunbar's book Inventing Money: The Story of
Long Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It,
makes an important and unique contribution to elucidating
the story. Written in London by a journalist specializing in
derivatives, it was actually published some months before
Roger Lowenstein's When Genius Failed (For my comments
see here.). Not benefiting from the mutual assistance habits
of Lowenstein's Wall Street Journal circle, the book was little
noticed. I, like others, only became aware of it via the
increasingly valuable "similar titles" component of
Amazon.com. It is worth the additional effort."
"This leads directly to the question of gold. Dunbar, like
Lowenstein makes no reference at all to gold, not even to
repudiate the rumors of a large LTCM short position. And
indeed such a position must have either been eliminated or
else been very well hidden by the time LTCM was invaded
by hordes of Goldman and J.P. Morgan investigators in late
September '98. But what Dunbar does reveal is very
important: that in the latter part of the 90s, Central Banks
did indeed strike what he describes as "devil's bargains"
with hedge funds, who were essentially hired as
mercenaries to achieve certain effects.
"And they did so in extreme secrecy. So well had LTCM
disguised its activities that the Italians were able with a
straight face to sanction Credit Suisse-First Boston for
squeezing the Italian Post Office bond sale in ‘96, while its
protege LTCM was discreetly doing the same thing (a
profitable bit of protection for LTCM.) On the evidence of
Dunbar's book, if a major Central Bank had decided it
wished to repress gold, discreet private sector agents were
readily available to perpetrate the deed."
The Invisible Hand
(1/23/2001; 5:20:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 46209)
BOE auction
http://www.kitco.com
Date: Tue Jan 23 2001 07:18
Stone-Gold (RESULTS) ID#274323:
$268 and 4.8 x oversubscribed.
The Invisible Hand
(1/23/2001; 3:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46208)
Is Bush the hero who's going to 'help' gold?
http://www.drudgereport.com/mattb.htm
XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX MON JAN 22, 2001 18:31:08 ET XXXXX
PERSONAL BOND DEVELOPS: BUSH, CLINTON HIT IT OFF
note from The Invisible Hand: cannot copy because copyrighted
Pandagold
(1/23/2001; 3:47:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 46207)
Just an added thought
You can now understand why our government can afford to auction it off - we have so much of it that the Roman's left us. And its not all in the Bank's vault.
Pandagold
(1/23/2001; 3:43:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46206)
It's embedded in the human psyche
Take heed those who may doubt the allure of gold.
( and it is nice to hear that, for some, even at today's prices, gold can be highly profitable.
Government's treasure trove map raises the prospect of golddiggers
The Independent - United Kingdom, Jan 23, 2001
A TENFOLD increase in the discoveries of buried treasure has fuelled fears among MPs that important archaeological sites could be swamped by amateur fortune-hunters.
A record haul of valuables, including Roman gold, Viking silver and ancient coins, was found in Britain last year by part-time enthusiasts using metal detectors. About 250 discoveries of gold and silver more than 300 years old earned hunters hundreds of thousands of pounds in "treasure trove" payments last year.
The finds included two late Bronze Age gold neck-rings, uncovered in Chickerell, Dorset and worth pounds 110,000, and a medieval gold pendant with a portrait of Christ discovered in Coundon, Warwickshire. Ten years ago only about 25 finds were reported each year.
A treasure map of Britain, published tomorrow by Chris Smith, the Culture Secretary, will pinpoint where the biggest finds were made and how much they are worth.
But some MPs have warned that the map will serve only to attract flocks of amateur hunters from around the world. Ronnie Fearn, Liberal Democrat tourism spokesman and a member of the House of Commons Culture Select Committee, said the location of the finds should be concealed by the Government.
"There is a real danger that a network of plunderers will be set up and in no time at all we will have hordes of people, not only from this country, descending on areas which have yielded buried treasure," he said. "I am sure that in a few days we will see bottle-diggers looking for relics."
The treasure map shows that Norfolk, Suffolk, Wiltshire and North Yorkshire yielded the most treasure last year. Durham and Herefordshire were the least successful counties for treasure hunters in England. Most of the finds were from the medieval and post-medieval period, although the bulk of gold and silver coins were Roman.
The majority were found by treasure hunters with metal detectors. Only 5 per cent of the finds - including the Anglo-Saxon grave of a warrior in Eriswell Suffolk - were the result of archaeological digs. Accidental discoveries by farmers ploughing their fields or walkers accounted for 5 per cent of the treasure reported last year.
The report on treasure trove will also show that a group of six silver Anglo-Saxon strap ends, made about AD850, found near York, has been bought by the Yorkshire Museum for pounds 18,000.
A hoard of 9,238 Roman silver denarii from the 1st to 3rd centuries AD, dug up in Shapwick, Somerset, was bought by the Somerset County Museum for pounds 265,000.
In Carnforth, Lancashire, treasure hunters uncovered a small Viking hoard of Islamic silver coins and scrap silver made about AD950.
In Bamburgh, Northumberland, treasure seekers dug up 253 Anglo-Saxon silver coins dating from AD850. The coins were bought by Newcastle's Museum of Antiquities for pounds 2,850. And the British Museum paid pounds 50,000 for a silver- gilt statuette of a saint, dating from AD1300, uncovered near Buntingford, Hertfordshire
One of the most spectacular finds was a rare Anglo-Saxon gold seal matrix bearing the name Baldehild. She was said to have been the bride of King Clovis II of France about AD650. The seal, worth pounds 60,000, has been acquired by Norwich Museum.
The amount of reported buried treasure has increased so dramatically the Government is planning to review the Treasure Act to give government officials more help in dealing with the caseload.
Under present law, finds of gold and silver more than 300 years old are official trove and have to be valued by the government's Treasure Valuation committee, under the 1996 Treasure Act. A Whitehall source said: "The massive increase in reporting of treasure helps us to understand our shared history. We are looking at improving the efficiency in dealing with caseloads and how reports are made. The review reports back in the spring."
All Material Subject to Copyright
From Pandagold
PS There is an interesting twist to this. Recently, the government brought in legislation to check amateur 'archeologists (ie., metal dectectorists) Has it stopped them? Not on your Nellie! ('Limey' expression)
Black Blade
(1/23/2001; 1:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 46205)
Gold's parallel universe
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2852569DB0015257E?OpenDocument
Article form miningweb just prior to BoE gold auction. Hmmm...
NEW YORK -- This week's pending UK gold auction, the penultimate in the current second cycle, has so far run true to form. The market takes its opportunity to fleece Britain's Treasury by shorting the metal aggressively to ensure that it can load up on 25 metric tons as cheaply as possible.
Nevertheless, the auction will pass as a cameo in the greater scheme of things. The price of gold will probably tick up in the days following the auction, but there is an abiding sense of calamity hanging over gold. But for one brief moment in September 1999 when the price per ounce rocketed, gold has spiraled terminally lower for twenty one years.
The impact on gold mining shares has been obvious, but a more important effect has been a steady disconnect from macro indicators once taken for granted. There has been an accelerating erosion of the relationship between gold and inflation, and gold and the dollar. For each year since 1980, the ability to predict inflation in the US via the price of gold has diminished to the point of being nearly meaningless today. Similarly, the inverse correlation between the value of the US dollar and the price of gold has corroded from strong to moderately reliable.
That has important consequences for investing in gold. Investors in the yellow metal have long relied on inflation and dollar exchange rates as markers for the ebb and flow of the global markets, signaling entry and exit points. To do so today is simply foolish. Let's look at the evidence before discussing future implications.
In a previous article, I made clear my case that the relationship between the trade weighted dollar and gold has diminished. That was confirmed in the Euro's recovery to near parity in recent weeks as a result of a weaker US economy that was widely expected to provoke a flight to safety and elevating gold prices. The reverse happened.
As far as inflation is concerned, even in the early 90s, gold was regarded as a reasonably accurate lead indicator of inflation in OECD economies, particularly the United States. Former Fed Governor Wayne Angell once remarked that "a rise in the price of gold is the best signal that we have to indicate that there is diminished confidence about the future purchasing power of money."
Statistical analysis reveals no reliable link between gold and inflation, a view confirmed by the research of Evan Koenig of the Dallas Fed. He notes: "Sustained movements in inflation have often been preceded by similar movements in the price of gold." However, his regression of past inflation rates and gold produced a model with 21 per cent predictive power, hardly reliable by any standard. It's helpful, but not nearly as predictive as bond yields, especially after 1993.
It is clear that gold's relationship to inflation and the dollar is stronger in times of turmoil. During the relative economic stability of the last two decades, gold's indicative function has become progressively less reliable with the advance of time.
That suggests that gold's investment potential cannot be understood in traditional terms. Perhaps gold is best understood as having parallel realities where one is alternately dominant. In times of prosperity and stability it assumes the characteristics of any commodity and is priced according to its utility. In periods of instability, its monetary role becomes predominant and is priced according to its exchange power.
Gold's investment qualities are clearly different in each period and require a bespoke investment strategy. In times of stability a trading approach using proxies like gold mines is advisable while turmoil would favor physical hoarding and trading. At all times it's wise to hold a reserve because the transition from one era to the next may not be telegraphed.
The shift between "realities" can only be tectonic and explosive and that is animating current debate about the gold price.
The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee is at the forefront of a faction which is effectively arguing that the shift is overdue and is being subverted by a cabal of gold shorts. The case is more compelling than convincing although they have done terrific work warning against becoming complacent about gold as money.
That complacency is everywhere to be seen, perhaps nowhere more clearly than in the reorganization of national reserves. Central banking practice has become increasingly homogenized with the result that gold plays a subordinate role to the major trading currencies. The resulting sell-off of reserve gold, primarily for jewellery fabrication means that very little is available to function as money if a shift occurs.
A financial crisis will attract private gold back into the market as the price rises, but it will not be as swift as the conversions of 1980 and liquidity problems are likely to drive the price higher for longer.
A meltdown is a dream for gold longs, but there's insufficient evidence of an impending crisis. The current potential fracture point is the US dollar which is regarded as overvalued given America's indebtedness and foreign trade deficit.
The dollar's recovery seems to be an acknowledgement that incoming Treasury secretary Paul O'Neil will retain a strong-dollar policy that will discourage possible investment buying. Aside from the policy support, there is still no competition for the US. Japan is in a mess and Europe has structural rigidities that are not going away in a hurry. The US will continue to attract investment flows so financing the trade deficit and keeping a floor under the dollar.
The best indicator of a likely shift between "realities" will be a sustained increase in the price of gold. If the price manages to hold above $320 an ounce for three months we would have the surest indication of gold's revival.
In the first instance, a prolonged price rise would reflect serious investment demand, something the market has lacked for years, and indicate a loss of faith in Greenspan's curative powers. Secondly, three months would throw a mark-to-market blanket over all gold shorts. Unlike gold hedgers Ashanti and Cambior which were caught short circumstantially, a three month price hike would create a systemic crisis generating margin calls on up to 10,000 tons of short metal.
The world's financial authorities clearly have no interest in letting that happen so it's not a foregone conclusion. Until then, there will be brief short-covering rallies that will be blunted by the weight of continued central bank selling and the better returns of other investments.
By: Tim Wood
Black Blade: Interesting. The second to last paragraph is telling. A short squeeze of "epic Proportions."
Black Blade
(1/23/2001; 1:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 46204)
Calif. Faces More Power Shortages
AP National
by JENNIFER COLEMAN Associated Press Writer
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) -- Transmission problems aggravated California's power crisis on Monday, as authorities warned that homes and businesses in the north of the state might go dark again Tuesday morning. Officials at the Independent System Operator, which runs the state power grid, said rolling blackouts could be in place again between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. if substantial electricity were not found overnight. ''We're looking everywhere for energy,'' said Kellan Fluckiger, the ISO's chief operating officer. ''We're looking under every rock and bush like we always have been.'' The electricity shortfall was predicted at 500 megawatts or enough power for half a million homes.
Problems in the system are beginning to compound, with Pacific Gas & Electric having reached, just three weeks into the year, the annual total hours it can shut off power to its interruptible contract customers, Fluckiger said. Those customers are businesses and others that agree to accept outages during times of tight supply in exchange for lower rates. With those customers shut down for several hours daily last week and several hours Monday, PG&E has reached the annual limit of 100 hours. Without the ability to cut interruptible customers, Fluckiger said, the system will face a deficit of 300 megawatts from that source.
In addition, reservoirs at a key hydroelectric plant near Fresno were low on water to turn generators; a transmission glitch in Oregon persisted and could take several days to fix; power usage routinely climbs as the week progresses and offers to sell the state electricity were lower than expected, Fluckiger said.
Stage 3 alerts -- the most severe and the prelude to rolling blackouts --remained in effect Monday, marking the seventh day straight with electricity reserves near or below 1.5 percent. Even though blackouts were not necessary Monday, the transfer of power between south and north was slowed when the three major conduits were jammed at a bottleneck consisting of just two 500,000-volt lines in central California. ''The ISO is caught in the middle, caught in a system not improved in three years,'' ISO spokesman Patrick Dorinson said. Blackouts occurred briefly Sunday for as many as 75,000 customers in Northern California, but they were caused by a spike in power from Oregon, not from shortages.
Meanwhile, the state Legislature considered several potential solutions to the crisis, including one under which the state's two largest utilities --Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas and Electric -- would donate their hydroelectric plants to the state. In exchange, the state would begin buying additional power needed for the state through long-term contracts and on the spot market, both of which have led to enormous debts for the utilities. The plan would make the state one of the largest owners of hydroelectric power in the nation. Another plan, proposed by Assemblyman Fred Keeley, would put the state in the electricity business for up to five years, buying power at low rates and selling it directly to consumers. The Assembly has already approved it. It still needs approval in the state Senate and would have to be signed by the governor. Keeley said his plan would buy time for the state's two largest utilities to restore their credit while lawmakers worked on long-term solutions to the state's botched deregulation laws.
Gov. Gray Davis is reviewing the ideas, but considers the hydroelectric plan more attractive, spokesman Steve Maviglio said. Consumer groups on Monday gave Davis' office more than 5,000 signatures from consumers rejecting what they called a multibillion-dollar bailout for the utilities. ''We see the cancer spreading, if you will,'' said Graham Brownstein of The Utility Reform Network, a San Francisco-based group. PG&E and SoCal Edison have been on the verge of bankruptcy for weeks. They blame their more than $10 billion in losses on California's 1996 deregulation law, which bars them from passing skyrocketing wholesale power costs onto consumers. The Legislature and governor last week allocated $400 million to buy power over the next several days because the utilities, whose credit ratings have been downgraded to junk bond status, can no longer find wholesalers willing sell them power on credit. State officials hope the plan will help avoid blackouts while lawmakers work on longer-term solutions.
The state's Department of Water Resources, the agency authorized to buy power under the emergency legislation, has spent at least $113.2 million since Thursday, including $35.2 million for Monday's power needs, said Mike Sicilia, a spokesman for Davis' office. In addition, DWR spent $38 million last week under a state of emergency declared by Davis until the emergency legislation became law, Sicilia said.
In Washington, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and other Bush administration officials met to discuss the California crisis. There was no immediate word on whether Abraham will extend an emergency order by his predecessor, Bill Richardson, keeping power flowing to California despite concerns about utility solvency. That order is due to expire at midnight Tuesday. Also Monday, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer announced the nomination of Curt Hebert, who has argued against federal involvement in the California problems, as chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which regulates wholesale power markets.
Black Blade: Read the second paragraph for emphasis. No more interruptible power cuts as the limit has been reached. The world's sixth largest economy is headed toward third-world status. Also heard that Intel (INTC) sent a letter to Sen. Diane Fine-Swine that they would not build additional production facilities in Kalifornia under the current energy crisis situation. Looks as if life is definitely going to become "interesting" in The People's Socialist Republik of Kalifornia." So goes Kalifornia, so goes the economy.
Black Blade
(1/23/2001; 1:02:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 46203)
New Plants May Ease, but Not End, California's Crisis
By SAM HOWE VERHOVEK
YUBA CITY, Calif., Jan. 18 — These farmlands north of Sacramento seem an unlikely spot to represent California's hope of staving off the economic turmoil that threatens the state. The largest growers' cooperative in Sutter County is in bankruptcy proceedings, and the unemployment rate is 13 percent.
There has never been a high-tech boom here, local officials say, nor much tourism. And much to many residents' continuing ire, Yuba City showed up a few years ago dead last on Money magazine's annual survey of the 300 best places to live in America.
But southwest of town, hundreds of workers are struggling in two 10- hour-a-day shifts to build a huge power-generating plant in the nation's largest state, which has not built a major energy plant in more than a decade. Several such mammoth construction projects are under way in California, and energy analysts say they are essential to easing the deepening electricity crisis that has led to rolling blackouts in recent days, threatening the livelihood of businesses including Internet companies in Silicon Valley and farms in the inland valleys.
Still, the construction of the plant here and at least eight others, many in similarly downtrodden areas, is a race against time. Some officials warn that, with no end in sight to the energy problems, the risk of blackouts may be even greater during the hottest days of the summer, the season when California normally hits its peak demand.
Even though the projects represent a total of 6,723 megawatts — enough electricity to power nearly seven million homes — they do not by themselves guarantee an adequate supply for California, since roughly half of the existing power plants are more than 30 years old and are in danger of being retired, according to the California Energy Commission, a state agency.
Whether the construction can outpace such mothballing is an open question, and, in a fitting touch of symbolism, the state's current power problems even impinged on the 500-megawatt plant here, known as the Sutter Project and owned by the Calpine Corporation of San Jose. Construction ground to a halt for more than an hour on Wednesday when the rolling blackouts spread across Sutter County.
"How bizarre is that?" said the project manager, Tom Miller, with a rueful chuckle as he walked through the plant today. "It takes power to make a power plant, and here we were, just shut down."
Despite that brief interruption, the gas-fired Sutter plant is on target to feed electricity to a transmission line stretching south toward Sacramento in July, and another 500-megawatt project, in Pittsburg, northeast of Oakland, is also scheduled to go on line by then, according to the energy commission. But Claudia Chandler, a spokeswoman for the commission, said it would not be until 2003 that the state is expected to have enough capacity to meet the peak demand in summer.
In the short term, many independent experts say that the only way the state can avoid supply problems is to expand conservation measures, especially those that significantly bring down the peak demand level. One way to do that is to make the power more expensive at times of the day when demand is greatest, giving businesses and consumers an incentive to change electricity use.
"There needs to be a more rational pricing scheme," said Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California Energy Institute, a research organization on the Berkeley campus. As important as the new plants under construction are to solving the overall problem of electricity supply in the state, he said, they are not a panacea.
There is a definite concern that we're going to lose capacity with older plants shutting down just as we're adding this new capacity, and the demand has kept growing," he said. "So when we're going to catch up with this problem depends in great part on what happens on the demand side."
California narrowly averted blackouts last summer by importing about one-sixth of the 46,000 megawatts it needed to meet peak demand, according to the California Independent System Operator, the nonprofit manager of the state's power grid that was created under the state's 1996 law that deregulated the electricity market.
In a move that has generated considerable hostility from California's neighbors, federal energy officials in recent weeks have ordered suppliers in the Northwest, the Rocky Mountains and elsewhere to export electricity to California to help stave off its problems. Normally, at this time of year, California has been in a position to export power, especially to states to the north who reach their peak demand for electricity during winter.
California's deregulation experiment is now the subject of near universal denunciation, from average consumers who suddenly found their lights turned off this week to Gov. Gray Davis, who in his recent annual address to the Legislature called deregulation a "colossal and dangerous failure" that had allowed "profiteering companies from out of state" to raise wholesale electricity prices by nearly 1,000 percent.
And yet, on another level, the deregulation measure did exactly what it was supposed to do: it led to a wave of proposals by energy companies for projects like the one here in Yuba City that will use cleaner technology, meaning they are supposed to pollute less than the current generation of power plants. Many of those companies had held off from such construction for years because of uncertainty over how and even whether the state would move toward deregulation.
"The sort of facile blaming of the lack of construction on California's environmental restrictions is misguided," said Professor Borenstein. "California does have serious environmental rules, as a lot of other states do. But the real reason investors didn't build plants in the 1990's is that for a long time, no one knew what the rules were going to be."
In any event, no major plants were built during a decade when the state's population grew by four million and a soaring economy, led by the boom in high technology, sparked demand for electricity as well. Since deregulation passed, California has approved the nine plants now under construction, compared with none in the prior decade, and 22 more are in the regulatory pipeline.
"The reputation of California being a Nimby state has been shattered," Steve Maviglio, Governor Davis's chief spokesman, said recently, referring to the "not in my back yard" reaction that prevented many plants from being approved in the past.
But the new plants do not represent any immediate solution to California's electricity shortages, which are aggravated by the precarious state of two big utilities, Pacific Gas and Electric and Southern California Edison, which are billions of dollars in debt. They are on the verge of bankruptcy, they say, because they had to buy electricity on the open wholesale market as prices have risen, but, under California's deregulation law, cannot pass costs on to the consumer.
And by and large, the new plants are not being built near the state's biggest metropolitan areas, but instead in places like Yuba City, where local officials welcomed the plants as an economic boon or where opponents lacked the clout to prevent them from being approved. Especially since the state's shortages became clear last year, state officials have moved aggressively to cut the regulatory procedures, and Governor Davis persuaded the Legislature last fall to pass what he called "fast- track" approval measures.
But even as those new plants come on line here and elsewhere in the inland valleys and along the Mexican border, providing more electricity to the state's power grid, the transmission system has bottlenecks that prevent the power from getting to where the demand is heaviest. That problem is especially acute in the San Francisco Bay Area, where some industry officials liken the problem to the congestion on a freeway off- ramp that creates a jam even if the main highway is running smoothly.
Perhaps even more than the plants themselves, large transmission lines and their towers have been the subject of intense opposition. "If you think power plants are hard to build, transmission corridors are even harder," said Katherine Potter, a spokeswoman for the Calpine Corporation.
Here in Yuba City, there was some opposition to the new plant, especially from those who live in areas closest to it or along the transmission corridor that will carry the new electricity into the state's power grid.
"This power isn't really going to be used here," said Rosie Foster, a fourth-generation prune and walnut farmer who lives near the plant and belonged to a group that led the fight to block construction. "In the places where people want the power, that's where the power plants should be built," she said. "But this is a poor county. The people who run the county wanted the money."
Sutter County officials say that the money — $3 million a year in school and property taxes, and other benefits built into the package negotiated with Calpine — was indeed a significant inducement. They said they hoped it would help attract more industry to the county, though they found it a bit of a paradox that the state was now looking to a place like Yuba City to help keep its economy robust.
"Sutter County has always lagged behind," said Larry Combs, the county administrative officer. "We've tended to lag behind when there's been an upsurge in the economy, but we fall immediately with a downturn. If having this plant here is going to help the state get out of trouble, that's got to be good for the county too."
Black Blade: The Peoples Socialist Republik of Kalifornia have delayed too long. The new power plants may help relieve some of the state's energy woes. The problem of course is that several existing plants are due to be "retired." Not only that, how are the new plants to be fueled? Natural Gas? HA! These new power plants will solve nothing without the state allowing the exploration and production of NG and oil. Also, they will have to consider the building of nuclear and coal fired power plants. Life is about to get "interesting" in Kalifornia. I saw socialist and self proclaimed consumer advocate Harvey Rosenfield interviewed on CNBC's Hardball last night. These people are still in denial about the energy shortage. He stated that the shortage is nothing more than a ploy by "powerful marauding energy interests" and he proposes that the government takeover power producers in nieghboring states to force them to provide power to Kalifornia at cut rate prices. Typical Kalifornia Grasshopper mentality. As the old bumper sticker from the 1970's use to state: "Let the bastards freeze in the dark." Meanwhile, GW has stated that Kalifornia can seek out a market based solution on their own. I see no problem here, as Bubba put the screws to the western states when as punishment for not giving him the vote in 2 elections, he used his dictatorial powers and with the stroke of a pen, he stole millions of acres from the people who scratch a living from the earth in the west. Kalifornia didn't vote for Bush, so why should he care? He's not going to get the vote next time around either. Time for a little "Quid Pro Quo." In other words, "what goes around, comes around." - "...And the Grasshoppers danced, sang, and played all summer..."
Usul
(1/23/2001; 0:55:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46202)
Trial Balloon?... Old Yeller... Source:
http://news.excite.com/news/r/010119/15/economy-fabius-urgent
"Fabius says U.S. slowdown was inevitable
Updated 3:21 PM ET January 19, 2001
PARIS(Reuters) - French Finance Minister Laurent Fabius said Friday the U.S. economic slowdown was inevitable and had been looming for some time.
Fabius said finance ministers of the big economies in Europe were looking to the meeting of the Group of Seven world economic powers in Italy in mid-February to discuss the issues with the new team taking over in Washington.
"I've always believed the idea that the American economy had discovered the secret of perpetual exponential growth was naive," Fabius said in a speech at a Franco-British business gathering.
"The limits of this exponential expansion were being noted several months ago, such as the lack of savings and the external deficit, as well as a degree of negligence financed by the high level of the dollar," he said..."
ski
(1/23/2001; 0:53:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46201)
Tree in the forest
Hello Mr. Tree
Just wanted you to know that I enjoyed your post. Sounds like you've been around some. Experience is one of several great teachers. I mostly enjoyed the readability of your writing as many who post here are difficult to follow. Don't wait too long to post again. ski
SteveH
(1/23/2001; 0:48:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46200)
must read prudent
http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htm
eom
SteveH
(1/23/2001; 0:37:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 46199)
repost kitco
Date: Tue Jan 23 2001 02:31
Heavy Metal Sunshine (Goldfish) ID#404177:
Copyright © 2000 Heavy Metal Sunshine/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't think anyone has been saying that the gold market has been manipulated for 20 years. In fact, the GATA literature points to about 3 or 4 years ago as the beginning of strong manipulative occurrences. Also such manipulations do not require constant action on the part of said manipulators merely concerted corrective action from time to time. Regardless, once the well heeled and well informed members of that subclass "Everyone wants to make money" became aware of such an artificial stability in the gold market they sought out ways to make money from this phenomena. Thus the gold carry trade came in to being and this further reinforced that very price stability. Unfortunately, it created an unnatural imbalance in the marketplace, that you and others like you are saying is really "natural diagnostic balance". A balance that you then base ( Diagnose ) your whole view of the marketplace and the economy.
It is like the story line in "Alice in Wonderland". It does a wonderful job of working with such reflections of realties.
To say "$ price of gold is manipulated. It is impossible." Is foolish when one looks at the relative size of the gold market to the equities market or the currencies market or the bond market. Gold is but a pimple on any one of those markets butt!
But the psychological power of gold in comparison to those markets is something else altogether. It is kind of like a horny little mouse climbing up a big sow of an elephant whispering that it'll be gentle. To see it you would laugh at the mouse for the sheer arrogant audacity of it. But then to witness the elephant stampeding off in stark terror would give one pause to think.
At the core of your statements it seems to me is the belief that there is a shortage of liquidity. I disagree. The liquidity is there; it has been expanded consistently. I am sure you have seen the statistics posted here at least several times a week. You appear to think that if there is sufficient liquidity it will go into the gold market as if by some divine decree. No, in today's marketplace derivatives have taken the place of gold. Taken the place not only of gold, but of caution, of sensible investment strategy, of farmers, miners, steelworkers making an honest living because derivatives allow their creators to take unnatural advantage in the marketplace. It is like playing cards with someone who is allowed to rewrite the rules whenever it suits their needs.
It is my belief that gold will break the derivatives market or the derivatives market will meltdown and set gold free. And I'm not just talking about gold derivatives.
When you have an equity bull market and you have inflation, equities inflate. Witness the last 3+ years M3 has been expanding and equity prices have inflated. The statistics are staggering. But we are at a crossroads where the equity bull is becoming a commodity bull. In years past this transition would have been more apparent by now but with the power that derivatives yield, nature is being held back and so the perceptions of nature. All the "fools" at this site know something's going down, just not when or exactly how. I consider myself one of those "fools".
AUgustUS
(1/23/2001; 0:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 46198)
>>>========= $259.90 ==========>
With the expectation of interest rates in the US being lowered further in the next few days - and with Mr Greenspan speaking on Thursday - it is possible for the perception to remain that Mr Greenspan et al are still in control of the financial markets. This necessarily includes the gold market. Since the perceived market risks will appear to be less after the erudite words of Mr Greenspan - there is no reason to expect to see any "contrary" indicator spoiling the party just yet. Although the music may have stopped - the fat lady (US $) still sings. My favorite expression : "Expect a Miracle".
SteveH
(1/23/2001; 0:21:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 46197)
CA
One must the obvious. Why does CA not want to resolve the NG PG&E debacle by alowing consumers to directly absorb the wholesale price increase in fuel?
Instead they propose a convoluted bond and hydro-electric takeover plan to pay down the bond. Does not such a plan assume a lower price of NG in the future?
If NG does not go lower sooner than later, either the bond will grow then default or other bonds will let until such time as it no longer staves the inevitable.
We know the Gov. of CA consulted with the FED on all this weeks ago.
Seems like first gold and silver were contained to hold back look of inflation; now Natural gas. What next?
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/23/01; 00:10:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 46196)
Year 2001 essays, COMEX price predictions, and new posts...Deadline is at the end of this posting day!
***REPOST OF DETAILS***
USAGOLD (1/19/2001; 11:27:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 45919)
Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
A test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until ***>>midnight (MST) on Tuesday, January 23rd<<***. We stand at the first month of a new millennium, a time to stop and think what the future might bring. So the contest is simple as it is challenging:
To wit: Will 2001, a market Odyssey, be a positive one for gold or a negative one? Is this the year of the big breakout? More of the same? A disaster? You make the call, support it with knowledge, skill and erudition and the prize is yours!
We ask contestants to treat the potential economic, political and financial scenarios as a basis for their opinion. We stand at a threshold -- not just of a new century but a time of uncertainty as the winds of change sweep through the world economy. There could be no better time for a contest with such a theme than now.
Your post must be at least 30 words and it must contain in the subject box the following:
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
(Surrounded by stars as shown....to help get our attention when we gather the many entries together at the deadline.)
The prize will be a .1867 ounce pre-1933 French Rooster gold coin. There will be two runners-up who will receive a one ounce silver Eagle each.
Also, we will have another contest to guess the price of gold for the February contract at the close Friday, January 26, 2001. All entries must be posted, however, by midnight (MST) Tuesday, January 23, 2001. The winner of will be the one whose arrow falls most closely to the mark, and shall be rewarded a tenth ounce prize that shines with the light of gold. All price guesses must be accompanied by sound reasons for your prediction to gain the prize. And as has been done it the past, it would please our judges if you would use standard arrows in the subject line of your post when you take aim to enter this 2nd contest. Like this:
>>>========= $300.00 ==========>
Also, all first-time posters will be awarded a one ounce silver Eagle if you post during the contest period -- from now until Tuesday midnight, January 23rd, 2001.
To qualify for the prize, you must e-mail jill@usagold.com confirmation citing the message number once you've made your first post. We will check each first-time poster's claim, so don't feel like you can get one by us.
We wish you good luck, good fortune. . . . . .And. . . . .
Let the contest continue!
ThaiGold
(01/23/01; 00:09:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 46195)
Fear Itself.?.
http://users.sisna.com/ThaiRanch/EagleRanch/index.htm
Circa 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt (ruse-a-velt) said:
"The only thing we have to fear... Is Fear Itself."
About the same time, W.C. Fields (?) said:
"What this country needs... Is a good 5-cent cigar."
Now, in 2001, ThaiGold says:
"The only thing GoldBugs have to fear... Is 5-cent cigars."
Think about it.
Hey.!. 675 hits at my website today. Somebody musta found
it useful. Check it out. For all your Market & News activities.
Black Blade
(01/23/01; 00:06:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 46194)
Good Article
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/mcintosh012401.html
The link is to an interesting article. I am amazed when I find someone who sees things as I do. Though I think that stagflation is a definite possibility, the article tackles some important points that we have dicussed here before. I admit that I do like the authors style.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/23/01; 00:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 46193)
A rare (and whimsical) interview with the U.S. Dollar
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/vonBraun.html
See the latest commentary by Professor von Braun at "The Rocket School of Economics" right here within the halls of USAGOLD.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
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