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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/23/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Netking (7/23/2000; 23:56:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 33822)
@TG
Sir TG;That may have been a little tough on our 'Elevator Guy' buddy, he has shown himself as a man prepared to speak out for his convictions, I think he was just giving a little credit to our learned friends where it was due.
Maranatha NetKing.


Topaz (7/23/2000; 23:46:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 33821)
Bottoms:
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html
Now I'm no deviate but:- That sure looks like a BOTTOM on Friday morn NY Spot don't it?


Gandalf the White (7/23/2000; 23:27:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 33820)
News from the Far East !
NIKKEI 24HR NEWS
14:12 - BOJ Chief Indicates End Nigh For Zero Rates
13:24 - Trade Surplus Shrinks 4.6% In Jan-June On Higher Oil Prices
12:59 - Tokyo Stocks Plunge In Monday Morning Trade
===
AND the South Korean stock market is down over five percent!
-- Things are not looking good for the start of the week.
Except for the holders of the real stuff (Au).
<;-)

Aristotle (7/23/2000; 22:03:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 33819)
Mechanics---a hammer made of feathers ought to do it
Cavan Man --"What are the "mechanics" of this separation as you see them? Would not massive buying be an absolute prerequisite to break the institutional shorters?"

Here's what I've got for you on that. Did you see Wednesday's COMEX action? Those are the mechanics for lower prices. (Wanna buy a bridge? There's no end to the number of them that I can sell.)

As for "massive buying", the availability of metal at these prices is what keeps the game alive. "Massive buying" as a prerequisite implies that there is massive supply (of physical) at these prices. There is not. Similarly, there is no way that the futures market will get away from the various institutions (bullion banks etc) that stand to lose from having Gold appear as a viable investment outright. The same perspective that reveals the notion of COMEX longs getting the upper hand as a non-starter, non-issue, also reveals that the winning hand in this particular game is built on physical metal ONLY. Whereas "abundance" in the paper Gold market is one undeniable aspect of the "mechanism," the marginal availablity of metal worldwide at these prices (in terms of inflated and overconfidently strong U.S.dollars) is the other side of the coin. It comes down to a tug of war--the futures markets saying the price should be low, while the physical market says "No can do" when you try to get you some at that same price. You can get a flavor for this phenomenon today when you consider why and how it is that pre-1933 Gold coins rightly command a price premium over "spot."

Does that answer your question, or did I miss the mark entirely?

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

schippi (7/23/2000; 21:12:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 33818)
XAU and Comex Gold Percentage Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/ag_xau_gcmx.gif

This chart is in percent which allows
comparison, across different time intervals.
It clearly shows that the Gold stock premium
over Gold has been bled off. This as the
chart shows, is a setup for a Giant Rally.
However, I don't have an answer for why FSAGX
did not crash with the XAU. Is there something
wrong or different about the current XAU index?
Or is FSAGX just walking on water?


Cavan Man (7/23/2000; 20:33:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 33817)
Nikkei
Looking pretty bad down 400 on trade surplus data I believe.

tg (7/23/2000; 20:27:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 33816)
elevator guy
time for you to grow up and face the world like a man. No one in life can give you the right answers, just opinions. Respect opinions and make up your own mind about the future.
FOA can only give you an opinion, he is not your saviour.

Ever thought that FOA could be totally and absolutly wrong.

I hope you could still face the world if that was the case.

Cavan Man (7/23/2000; 20:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 33815)
A "Yen" For Exports
Attention Japanese Investors
Japan's trade surplus (huge) has many implications not least among them the fact that without exports, Japan, Inc. would sink into a deflationary abyss. The Japanese CB et al will not sacrifice exports and would I'm certain defend the Japanese economy by weakening the Yen if necesary to maintain leverage. Yen savers and Yen denominated assets would not fare thee well.

With the $USD so strong, why not diversify your investment portfolios with a wee bit of the yellow?

elevator guy (7/23/2000; 20:10:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 33814)
FOA/Trail Guide, Dont go away!!
Please continue to feed us much needed information.

I still need direction!

Obviously, accumulating real physical gold is the most important thing we little folk can do protect ourselves, and position for the future currency war. (I hear the Euro will be used exclusively after the end of 2000)(Or is it 2001?)(I forgot)

And on top of physical, how shall we conduct our affairs in this present dollar based system? Do we include gold clauses in our construction contracts? Do we invest in real estate, or go dig a cave to live in? What steps should the prudent be taking , along with buying pjhysical?

Do you see any developing hints at the "Burn" coming?

Thanks for your input, it is appreciated!



Cavan Man (7/23/2000; 19:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 33813)
Aristotle
What are the "mechanics" of this separation as you see them?

Would not massive buying be an absolute prerequisite to break the institutional shorters?

Break the dollar denominated price discovery for POG and draw blood from the dollar and perhaps set the POG free. Any other speculative circumstances to drive the POG higher are merely wishful thinking as the dollar is indeed king although the Euro, perhaps "key".

Long golds short the dollar. That's a plausible rationale yes?

Respectfully......CM

Cavan Man (7/23/2000; 19:47:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 33812)
Aristotle
What are the "mechanics" of this separation as you see them?

Would not massive buying be an absolute prerequisite to break the institutional shorters?

Break the dollar denominated price discovery for POG and draw blood from the dollar and perhaps set the POG free. Any other speculative circumstances to drive the POG higher are merely wishful thinking as the dollar is indeed king although the Euro, perhaps "key".

Long golds short the dollar. That's a plausible rationale yes?

Respectfully......CM

Aristotle (7/23/2000; 18:17:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 33811)
Bridges and Bluffs
Why is the U.S. price of Gold so much lower than its economic value should otherwise dictate? Here's an exercise that may help.

Imagine for a moment that I am in the business of selling bridges. Not new bridges to span gaps, but existing bridges which are already in use. In fact, I happen to have a bridge that I can sell you today--the Golden Gate Bridge. Think about your initial reaction to this.

Some have said that it was fortunate that the bridge was built in the era it was because it could not be afforded if we tried to build it today. Seems strange, that even with technological advances, the modern construction costs would be prohibitive. So, with that impressive background serving as my sales pitch, I'll now let the bidding begin. How much do you feel willing to pay me for this important Bay-area asset? I'll even write up a pretty COMEX-style contract showing me as the seller and you as the buyer--just to make sure everything is nice and official.

Just think how handy this would be! Imagine that one day you are driving merrily along and encounter a roadblock with a "Bridge Out" sign. With this contract, as an official bridge owner you could toss your head back with laughter as you drive around the stopped cars and the barricade to continue along your merry way.

OK, clearly, to have a contract for a bridge is no substitute for having the real thing in the time and place that it's needed. You intuitively know this, and therefore offer me no bids on my bridge contract--or if you do make an offer, it is low enough to provide you with some room to profit on the greater fool theory as you take your turn selling it to the next guy. (Can you see the parallel with our current contract Gold markets taking shape?) Truly, the Golden Gate bridge has higher value to those actually using it than is reflected through our resale market of its title.

In the real world, our engineers are not so fatuous as to estimate bids on new bridge projects based on the going market rate from the transactions that ensue when a guy like me says to a guy like you, "Psssst...Hey buddy, I've got a bridge I wanna sell ya." In the Gold market, however, this same common sense does not prevail. The "Gold Engineers" (miners and all others having Gold) with the ability to deliver Gold when and where it is needed are sadly enthralled by the market price determined on the analogous "Pssst...Hey buddy" paper Gold market.

The financial benefit that accrues to specific parties stemming from this paper Gold market has grown to significant levels, leading to their incentive and hence natural desires to keep the game alive. Contrary to popular opinion, there is nothing necessarily sinister in this--they are simply operating within the parameters of an existing, lawful system to use it to their advantage. It becomes a "no-brainer" for these institutions to participate in these futures markets when it was seen how easily they could influence the price (lower) for the protection of their overall portfolios dominated by dollars and exposed to Gold pressure.

As suggested before, selling more paper Gold than the market can absorb (and thus driving the price lower) is akin to the psychological games played by the pre-1933 banks when threatened by a run on their Gold deposits. To dampen the depositor demand, these banks would create the pacifying illusion of abundace by placing the Gold they did have on prominent display near the tellers. Keep in mind that back in those days, EVERY loan was a Gold loan, so in a crisis of confidence paper Gold derivatives on prominant display would not have been effective as we see them being used today. The key thing to recognize here is that it is only the Western perception that is being changed and manipulated, not the underlying reality of demand on Gold in the world.

This was expressed nicely on Thursday of last week when we were treated to a rooftop clinic of sorts. In the course of three posts by TownCrier, the technical portion of my planned elaboration as to why I felt that July-August would likely mark the turning point for Gold was largely pre-empted, and I gladly offer a replay of those three posts here in building to my final point on the timing for a separation of way between physical and contract prices. (It looks like its shaping up to be a slow day here, so I hope my use of space in doing this is reasonably tolerated.)
===================
TownCrier (07/20/00; 14:25:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 33697)
Playin' COMEX like a fiddle
Yesterday's sudden and precipitous price decline ($3.50) in August gold futures contracts traded on the New York Commodity Exchange shows the extent to which the "price of gold" can be slapped around like a two-bit tramp as a consequence of price discovery occuring via the futures market. As it is, the price is derived from the contract trading that occurs among players in the futures market, and it is just too easy for the institutional players to create and sell JUST ONE MORE gold contract than the marketplace can absorb. Hence, the price will fall. Having thus succeeded in washing out a goodly portion of the longs through either pure dejection or else margin calls, the institutions can then step in and cover their own positions as these longs liquidate theirs.

Yesterday, after the sudden washout, the price was flat for the rest of the day...reflecting "mission accomplished" for that salvo. This activity allowed for a net closing of 5,545 positions in open interest on the August contract as we move toward the delivery window which opens July 31st. OI for August stood at 55,999 at the end of yesterday's trading, so there remains plenty more that would like to be as easily settled in the coming week.

You can get a good feel for this undercurrent of motives and actions from this excerpt from FWN's market review of yesterday's COMEX action:

New York--July 19--COMEX gold futures settled down $3.50 or 1.2% at
$279.60 per ounce after an early slide to a 1 1/2 month low of $278. Gold
fell on a flurry of bank selling which triggered sell stops and forced out
some of the weaker longs. It was primarily a technically driven move...
After the initial price drop, gold stayed dull for the rest of the
Wednesday session and saw little activity.
Traders said that the move lower was exacerbated by the thin market
conditions, with the low open interest magnifying any price moves. "It was
a technical breakdown below $280.60--all the banks came running in and the
small longs sold," said one broker....
"It was slammed and people had to get out, they had to
sell," [said another]. ***end***

How does one capitalize on these market conditions? Use your enemy's momentum to your advantage. Take advantage of the bargain prices their paper shenanigans are creating to obtain as much metal as your prudent portfolio requires.

Hey, with "enemies" like these, who needs friends?

TownCrier (07/20/00; 20:54:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 33713)
A subtle but important distinction for making "healthy" evaluations
Sir Golden Truth, in your "back to reality" conclusion you said "GOLD for August delivery fell U.S$3.50, 1.2%, to US$279.60, the lowest closing price since June 1."

Rather than "gold for August delivery" falling by $3.50, if you see this for what it really is, it seems much less alarming for the long term perspective. Instead of the price falling on "gold for August delivery", see this instead more correctly as a falling bid on the COMEX gold contract which expires in August. You see, there is very little gold ever involved in dealings through COMEX. And although it serves as the means of price discovery (via mathematical adjustment) for real gold, it can remain oblivious to the underlying strength of the market in physical metal until real factors may result in a sudden paradigm shift similar to 1971.

COMEX gold contracts should no more be considered as equivalents to real gold than dollars should be considered as equivalents to real goods. It is based on THIS awareness that a person should decide whether to participate on one side of the deal or the other...as either an exchanger of paper for goods, or an exchanger of goods for paper. Given this understanding, ultimately, it is the character of an individual's personal timeline constraints and obligations that will propel him to favor one postion over the other.

How many people would take their groceries back to the store when they see ads that those items have gone on sale? Similarly, how many would take their groceries back for a paper profit when they see that the prices have risen? Real gold is the wealth-alternative to relying on blind faith and confidence in the ability and willingness of others to honor their various contract obligations (loans, derivatives, etc).

TownCrier (07/20/00; 22:23:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 33720)
Sir VanRip, nice question
For an initial clarification, I believe you have a typo. The LME (London Metal Exchange) handles such items as copper and aluminum, whereas the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) deals in gold and gold clearing among member accounts, and writing gold contracts in every which way the law allows.

Your question then, "are there other ways for shorts of physical to cover without using COMEX?"

To be sure we cover the bases, it is important to realize what it is that those who are "short" are short of, exactly. The shorts that we see on COMEX are short not physical gold, but actually just a gold contract. This position was established when they sold a contract, and may be covered/closed/settled at any time by buying an offsetting contract. It is doable, but by a distinct minority, that any such COMEX short position is settled by actual delivery of metal against the contract position.

In truth, those who are the "shorts of physical" would not be the futures players, but rather, they would be those who have taken out gold loans for which gold repayments with gold interest would be necessary. And no, they would not likely go through COMEX as their source for bullion. Arrangements to acquire their gold would be made with producers and refiners and through the bullion banks that beguile these producers with self-serving words of gold's demise on the world scene. It is this element that will likely lead to a paradigm shift as I alluded to earlier in the day, not the futures element. The futures element, through selling down the price, ultimately aggravates the supply situation by fostering additional gold demand in the rest of the world to compete with the gold borrowers for metal.

Regarding the ability and ease with which the futures traders can close out their shorts, you need only consider that every other month we see the open interest on the active COMEX gold contract rise to nearly 100,000 positions, only to be completely closed out in turn prior to expiration...with just a small pittance of positions "delivered" as physical compared to the overall volume of turnover handled in paper form. And despite this regular bi-monthly closing of the shorts, we see the futures prices to be in an overall downward trend, don't we? As we've suggested before, it would be well not look to the futures market's price performance in anticipating the outcome of strains beneath the surface in the physical market.
==================

The reason I perceive July-August (or the Sept-October cycle at the latest) as marking the separation of Gold pricing for metal vs. derivatives (futures) has everything to do with the need of the institutional shorters to create this bimonthly pricing downdraft which is now arriving at a unique time. Again, this COMEX business may work fine for putting of American investment interest in Gold, but the artificially cheap price ("wanna buy a bridge?") only enhances the offtake ability for the rest of the Gold-buying world which is now coming back up to full economic stride after the Asian contagion took its past toll. These people are now even wiser than before regarding the merits of holding Gold. Further, September marks the beginning of India's annual Gold-buying spree throughout the marriage season, the Diwali festival of lights, and Christmas. With most of the Washington Agreement Gold being placed through the BIS, the likelihood is high (in my mind) that it is not finding its way beyond to satisfy or service the Gold debt obligations of those with Gold loans within the LBMA.

On top of those certain factors, there is also the world view of the U.S. dollar and stock market. We are soon to be leaving a traditionally strong period of the year and entering a weak period. Changing sentiment about the prospects of U.S. investments when compared with international growth alternatives could generate additional demand on Gold as the dollar loses some of its favor. Given our ongoing trade deficit, a dollar flood back to U.S. shores is waiting for an excuse to happen. So while the institutional sell-off of Gold futures (and bridges) can easily continue as spelled out above, the world stands ready to take the metal--with higher physical costs as necessary to be accounted for in rising premiums required to lay hands on the real thing. So unless the flow of WA Gold is other than I believe it to be, either of these next two COMEX cycles should break things loose for holders of the precious yellow.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Cavan Man (7/23/2000; 17:31:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 33810)
CoBra(too)
I took some of your medicine last night--ah, Glenlivet neat is really a treat.

You've mentioned before you know your ways 'round the gold business to some degree. May I ask, what is your forecast for the next twelve months or so? Thanks...CM

CoBra(too) (7/23/2000; 17:05:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 33809)
News - ...
G ...after 8 - on Okinawa - Dot com'es before debt relief!
Clinton on hot coals ... Castro's Cigars accepted
Arafat builds White House Barak's in Jerusalem ...
Camp David swamped by old Nile Crock's...
Division over Suez divide - give me a desert!eur - Bill?
Greenspan agrees to "greenbacked" gold swaps ...
- and only Summers finds the W(L)eatherman comical!
... Though Austria's largest bank is to be taken over
by the Ba(-rb)varians.
So nothing's new - cb2





CoBra(too) (7/23/2000; 16:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 33808)
Apologies ...
First to CM and to all - as it seems I definetly have some
problems understanding plain English - please forgive someone trying to cope in your language ...
@ CM ... I've been quite proud of feeling "current" in
my second lingo - as it is I'm ashamed of my inadequacy today! - So please don't be confused - bear with me ... I'm on a learning curve, similar to gold's l.t. chart. - sorry for misunderstanding -cb2



Cavan Man (7/23/2000; 15:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 33807)
CB2
You've got me terribly confused.

CoBra(too) (7/23/2000; 15:22:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 33806)
Re CM -re .Moratorium -
I'm sorry to say that neither the quiet, nor the
"palliative " - nice expression btw - 'Angst' for my portfolio induced me to post the moratorium - on no posts - probably on Sunday mornings - so I would suggest that you'd go on ignoring day to day - is it? changes .... Sorry to be as snide - though the reason was stated - cb2

beesting (7/23/2000; 14:14:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 33805)
The Truth About High Gas Prices in the U.S...From Congressman Ron Paul!
http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2000/tst071700.htm




July 17, 2000

High Taxes Cause High Gas Prices
Gas Tax Relief Will Benefit Consumers Immediately

Consumers throughout the 14th district of Texas and Americans everywhere have felt the
impact of higher gasoline prices during the past year. In response, our government officials have
offered up the usual "solution": greater regulation of the oil industry. Administration officials have
ordered an FTC antitrust probe, while vote-seeking politicians have condemned the oil industry and
called for an investigation into collusion and price gouging. The truth is that costly federal taxes and
regulations largely are to blame for high fuel prices, not convenient scapegoats like OPEC and the oil
companies. I co-sponsored legislation in March that would immediately address the real problem:
exorbitant gas taxes.
The obvious way to reduce the price that consumers pay for gasoline is to reduce fuel taxes.
Federal taxes account for nearly 20 cents per gallon of gasoline sold. State and local taxes bring the
total to 42 cents per gallon. Thus, while the cost of crude oil is roughly 70 cents per gallon (based on
the current cost of $30 per barrel for OPEC crude oil), the "cost of politicians" is 42 cents! In fact,
over 43 different taxes are imposed on the production and distribution of gasoline by various levels
of government. The pre-tax price of a gallon of gasoline barely has changed in the last decade,
hovering around 88 cents throughout the 1990s. The real increase has been in various taxes: in 1990
consumers spent only 27 cents per gallon in taxes (as opposed to 42 cents today). At the same time,
EPA regulations (such as those requiring new reformulated gasoline) add significantly to the cost of
fuel production. Analysts estimate consumers would save a whopping $67 billion in one year if gas
taxes were eliminated. Clearly, we need to end the smokescreen and stop blaming oil companies for
high prices that have been caused almost entirely by huge increases in fuel taxes.
The call by administration politicians for an investigation of high gas prices is particularly
inconsistent, because the current administration routinely has supported energy taxes and EPA
regulations which directly increase the price we all pay at the pump. Of course, politicians love to
respond to pressure that they "do something" about high gas prices, regardless of the hypocrisy
involved. Unfortunately, they never do the right thing by eliminating or reducing the taxes that cause
high gas prices to begin with.
Fortunately some of my colleagues in Congress agree, and have joined me in co-sponsoring
legislation that reduces or places a moratorium on federal gas taxes. H.R. 3844, which I
co-sponsored back in March, calls for a total repeal of federal gas tax increases imposed in 1993.
H.R. 4111, which I also co-sponsored in March, mandates a six-month suspension of federal gas
taxes while maintaining the repeal of the 1993 tax increases. A new bill I support, H.R. 4776,
suspends federal gas taxes through March 2001, and requires the Secretary of Energy to report on
the economic feasibility of maintaining the reformulated gas mandate imposed by the Clean Air Act.
All of these bills would provide immediate relief to consumers at the pump, especially during summer
months when many families drive long distances on vacation. Beneficial effects would be felt
throughout the economy, as retail costs are directly affected by fuel costs borne by the trucking and
air freight industries in shipping retail goods.
Of course, eliminating gas taxes will not eliminate all fluctuations in gas prices. Some
fluctuation occurs as the normal result of supply and demand forces in the market. Americans can
take partial responsibility for their gas bills by driving fuel-efficient automobiles. Also, we should be
willing to explore new domestic oil sources to reduce our need to buy oil abroad. However,
politicians should be held accountable for true cause of high gas prices: massive increases in federal
gas taxes.







Nightrider (7/23/2000; 13:30:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 33804)
Cost of GAS and Pay increases
As I drive around town my vison seems to watch the posted Gas price's this happen's because I own both Gas and Gold stocks I quess. Any way, I also watch out for those BIG SUV's
They are hard to miss and I sure don't want to tangle with one, that's for sure. When I stop to fill up my cars tanks average price $25.00 dollars per fill I, ask the station manager, are people complaining, and of course, the answer is always YES! But they keep on filling them up.

The good side to this, I suppose, is that, We drivers are still filling UP which is good for the Exon's and Texeco's of the world and their share holders and I hope at some point also good for the gold companies, and their share holders.

But I keep asking myself this one basic Question, Why havent We been demanding greater pay increases from our employers Or, Why havent Business been Increasing Their prices to cover their increasing cost.

Maybe the answer to this question is that We consumers have enought extra cash flow to cover this increase, and until that changes No Demand will be placed on Employers.






Cavan Man (7/23/2000; 11:46:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 33803)
Moratorium
Quiet can be a palliative for the Goldheart's angst ridden portfolio. I just ignore the day to day stuff although I'd be untruthful if I said I wasn't thinking about the subject frequently.

It won't take much of all the newly created wealth in the world to skyrocket POG when flows change direction.

CoBra(too) (7/23/2000; 11:27:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 33802)
@ Sir Gandalf - The White
As I've mentioned before the (good)hobbits are seekers of truth -
may they find it ... cb2

Gandalf the White (7/23/2000; 11:10:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 33801)
CoBra(too)'s Question
NOPE -- Everyone is out looking for the Trail Guide -- Either he is lost,(NAW) -- or has found a shortcut for the trail, and is expoloring it for all of us.
<;-)

CoBra(too) (7/23/2000; 10:46:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 33800)
Is there a moratorium on posting?
then I've misssd it! - tku cb2

CoBra(too) (7/23/2000; 9:46:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 33799)
"The Stranger's Index" and some ...
Couldn't believe noone's posted since last night - must have
been friend Sranger proving the validity of his postulated index. Hope you guy's are not throwing out the baby with the bath, though you probably are feasting on a similar great summer weekend we are on the other side of the big splash.
Just a thought from Blanchard research, since I've brought up the topic last week - and it's nice to have a respectable research firm ... not contradicting you. Anyway under the heading " Gold outperforms Dow" the piece laauds wise investors having bought gold at July 21 99, when gold hit a 20 yr low - "this profit (of nearly 30$/ounce - is the added benefit gold investors gain lowering their overall risk of their portfolio."

Much more to the point, gold is trading at (or above for the sticklers) 280$/oz, while the Dow is at 10.733. The ratio of the Dow to the ounce of Gold is therefor 38:1. Considering the same ratio was 1:1 in 1980, I guess anyone can draw its own conclusions as to whats high compared to whats low (in relative, or should I say absolute)valuation.

While hard assets - except maybe real estate - have seen a negative correlation to financial (are they called soft?) assets, mostly during this stretch, I wouldn't be surprised to see a gradual, or even rapid (left field event) shift to this "goldilocks" paradigm of pretenders, not contenders to reality or wealth.

Anyway, it seems to be "The Time" to think about insurance and conservation of "paper wealth" - the writing on the wall may not become more clear - GOT GOLD? (tku Ari)
may well become the (lost-) battle cry of the Dot Com would have been squilionnaires.

Changing (under-) currents? Definitely! cb2

@ CM - thank you for your kind words the other day and as I'm in no way adverse to your Tullamore Dew and their likes -and not only via the greatest coffee "additive" - I'm at a loss with the bird of "vice" Dan Quail, though quailing for the inside track. Best to you too - cb2
Oh and -BTW - sorry for rather long post.

CoBra(too) (7/23/2000; 9:09:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 33798)
test only
test



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