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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/23/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

$5 Indian (4/23/2000; 22:31:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 29252)
Elian at Gunpoint.........
http://www.usagold.com
Wanted: All points bulletin, be on the lookout for a small crying boy who goes by the name of Elian, suspect is wanted in the connection with "the plan that might cost me Florida". Suspect may be armed with a unregistered semi-filled orange water pistol. Last seen dragging a yellow blanket across the Toys-R-us parking lot. Rumor has it that he is trying to buy an inflatable air matress. While briefly apprehended at the residence of his uncle after a 130 agent "dawn" attack, the boy managed to slip away while at a rest stop. Apparently he "climbed under". Agents are amazed at the cunning escape. "We knew he had the pistol having seen him do a partial refill at the kitchen sink. What saved us was he "couldn't get all the bubbles out". When agents smashed down the door the boy feigned traumatic shock and tricked us as to his real plans. "He just used us to get to the toy store". Anyone who can identify the boy is to immediately notify SWAT TEAM 1 or the Gore residence.
===========================================================

Hi-Hat...I'm agreeing with Batra's cyclic theory in so far as it relates to conditions of the past that led to its validity. That was "a Gore" about Batra. I mean the ability of governments to monitor economic excesses and distortions has been greatly increased with computers. So they can fine tune this credit expansion and throw wave after wave of extensions out and throw off any predictions we might arrive at based on normal cyclic parallels in past history. You're in the haunted castle and they know every turn you will make, where you will sleep and how to keep you from leaving. But yes, in the end their electricity gets turned off, everyone climbs out the windows to escape. It is more creepy and horrifying than we can comprehend because of who is behind it all and how this collapse is becoming an orchestrated event of chaos to bring about the one world government. No demand, no need for a supply. Bring on a major global depression and now you need big brother in a big way. The people involved believe they are wise and prudent when they are on the Titanic holding cups of tea cruising headlong at 25 knots. Who said all power of the world was given to him to give to whoever he wanted? Who said "My kingdom is not of this world or else my servants would be fighting." One holy Angel killed 185,000 Assyrian troops in one afternoon if you believe the scriptures(somewhere in Chronicals or Kings), so 2/3rds of these God serving creatures are waiting for this war in heaven to begin. May we return to earth. Ravi Batra sees things occurring in linear predictable cycles. No linearity can be applied to exponential curves. Acceleration isn't velocity.

Since when were credit card companies the major creators of M1? Since when were homes purchased with 5% down? Since when was the largest employer the government that produces no product? Since when was the service sector considered to be a "producer that should be considered in the GNP". Pizza shops, nail care, and jiffy lube don't produce anything that can be sold overseas. Since when was the national debt credited as being not-dangerous by utter lies about the revenue surplus? US national debt is a runaway train...........We are in peacetime friend and should have no national debt. I'm saying the folks who buy the ranch in Argentina or the farm in Costa Rica are still better off even in inflationary times there than they will be when this tsunami of debt implosion breaks. I think the technologies available will lend themselves to support the corporations ruleing the world not governments. "They yielded their kingdoms to the beast", the beast doesn't take them. Why? How? because the governments power is being diminished by multinationals who use offshore banks. The multinationals pull the strings and the governments will be unable to raise tax revenues without kissing up to their power. Rockafeller beat the citizens in 1913 and it's a "slow walk" victory. Now with high tech. we will see deflation or inflation to where the rich live VERY rich "and hurt not the oil and the wine" and the poor VERY poor " and a days wages for a days food" REV.6. Approaching it, (not like this suddenly occurs). Global economy means global comparative wages. Say 65 cents an hour for labor and $1 and hour for skilled labor. The disparities between these high wage and low wage countries are going to meld and not become so apparent. They won't change easily they tend to "ratchet" like a object finally overcomming the friction of enertia. Tectonic plate movement is more like it. This is the real doomsday $%^#@. Don't listen to hype. Look at what you see. Are markets saturated, are personal bankrupcies popping like corn? Japan is the USA in 1935. We sucked the investment out of England and pulled a brain drain on Germany, took the best and left the rest. Well as we sink, Japan can attract our investments and take our smartest and best. Calcutta on the Hudson is no comparison to Tokyo. What we did happens back to us. My guess is that Japan will "buy" all the old countries it formerly invaded with force for the same reasons it took them last time. Is Germany not making deals with Russia? SOS. America has cast Truth out of its "dumbed down" schools and is turning into the Island of Dr. Moro. Every major state college has an insane asylum nearby off in the hills that it feeds its crazies to. I've seen it with my own eyes (mostly Keynesians I tell ya). So in conclusion, we have cyclic theory that is true, but the timing of the cycles is way off even by Batra's own calculations. Yeah, just throw away the calculator and go with what you see. The people only "See Green" and they deserve to drift in the green sea.

Journeyman (4/23/2000; 21:14:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 29251)
Patience Please! @oldgold (4/23/2000; 12:45:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 29220)
http://www.TheSpiritOf76.com/bigfloat.html

"US stock market saved and gold trashed by a collapsing Euro. Those on this thread who have said
again and again that the Euro was preparing to challenge the dollar for global supremacy could not
have been more wrong." -oldgold (4/23/2000; msg#: 29220)

Goodness gracious!! Patience! Neither Rome nor the Euro were built in a day. You must be a member of the NOW generation, oldgold. You're not the only one here who qualifies for membership, however.

Even for the newspapers of the day, the 1929 market crash was only a back page story. The big story, they thought, was Byrd:

"At the end of 1929, the _New York Times_ looked back on
the year to identify its biggest story. It was Admiral
Byrd's trip to the South Pole. ... The smartest reporters in
the world could not see the importance of the stock market
crash in 1929. ...
+
The economy had already turned down in August
1929. It was many months later, after the crash, after
the Suckers' Rally, after a slow year with no recovery,
after the banks started to collapse, that people began
to realize what had hit them. By then, it was too late
to prepare adequately.
+
... Even recognizing that a slump is underway is often
beyond the vision of the authorities. Consider that the
1973--75 recession began in November 1973, but,
reported the _Wall Street Journal_, 'as late as August,
1974, Arthur F. Burns, the Federal Reserve chairman,
was assuring Congress that the economy was still
expanding.'" -James Dale Davidson & Lord William
Rees-Mogg, The SOVEREIGN INDIVIDUAL, (New York, NY:
SIMON & SCHUSTER 1997), p.375

Besides, the dollar is moribund, even if the Euro fails. It's just that the rest of the world will have more motivation to try to prop it up longer.

If you want to see the REAL problem the dollar has, Euro or not, check out the link above.

Regards,
Journeyman


lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 20:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29250)
Elwood
Yes, I understand what you are saying, but neither this site nor Kitco is supposed to be a site dedicated to gold stocks or gold options. Both sites revolve around physical gold since both site owners are dealers. This is what perplexes me even more...why people are venting their frustration with paper investments here in the first place...it's almost like they are not even reading what is being written!

By the way, I own both gold stocks and physical...is it that difficult to understand the purpose of each?

If so, once again ALL STOCKS ARE SPECULATIVE -- this includes gold stocks. Physical gold is an insurance policy, hopefully never to be sold at any price.

OK, I tried. I'm sure it will do absolutely no good whatsoever and that I'll be reading another sour grapes post in the near future!

Lamprey

Chris Powell (4/23/2000; 20:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29249)
Gold is money but industry doesn't get it
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/438?
Gold is money but the gold mining industry
doesn't understand it, doesn't understand
that its product is money more than
jewelry and that its biggest competitors
are not other mining companies but
governments.

At least Reg Howe gets it.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com


Elwood (4/23/2000; 20:14:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29248)
Lamprey

It's the "trader gold bug" mentality.

lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 20:11:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29247)
A General Observation
I've noticed an increase in the number of "sour grapes" posters both here and on Kitco, concerning gold investments. I guess people have a hard time dealing with their own disappointments and have to blame someone other than themselves for their decisions. Kind of sad, but it does fit in very well with what I see in society at large...once again, it's liberty AND responsibility, people.

THC (4/23/2000; 19:56:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 29246)
@Richard
Hi Richard, thank you for your feedback:

"Richard640 (4/22/2000; 7:57:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 29165)
THC & all--the amazing YEN
How the yen has any international standing is a great mystery and a stunning victory (so far) for the fiat currency regimes--With "free" yen (zero interest rates) and round the clock running of the presses for a decade, the Yen is truly the 8th wonder of the world--If, as we say on these forums, the U.S. dollar is toilet paper, then the Yen does not have even this minimal functional value--t'is more akin to a urine-soaked gutter rag."

**********

I think that you may be missing something. A currency can be strengthened by increasing the interest rate, and weakened by lowering the interest rate.

The fact that the yen is able to hold historically high levels with interest rate near 0% and aggressive selling of yen by the BOJ indicates that the yen is "extremely strong" vs. the dollar.

In general, higher interest rates are indicative of weaker currencies......you can find extremely high interest rates in many 3rd world countries......the yen is no worse than the $.......if not much better in terms of fundamental strength.

I'm sure Oro could explain this in more detail.

Good luck to you,

THC

Richard640 (4/23/2000; 19:46:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29245)
Powell & all--I have real-time quotes I subscribe to
The S&P is still down 6.5 pts.

BILLYG (4/23/2000; 19:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29244)
Talking about losers
A few mondays ago when it seemed like the stock market was going to crash Monday morning I knew gold was in deep trouble and the stock market has hit the bottom. I logged on here and seen every body jumping with joy that gold was up over 2 bucks! WOW ... I wish I never heard of the stuff. Gold, when it rallys, will do so for no reason. Look at gold mining stocks during the 1987 crash.. Went up that day but than turned down with the rest of the market after that. If I would not have been so bearish over the years and puchased good stocks I be rich. Or on the other side of the coin maybe its the bottom when I voice my negitive message here. Have a great day. BillyG

Elwood (4/23/2000; 19:38:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29243)
S&P Premium
Hi, Leigh. The S&P Premium is a derivative contract of two other derivative contracts. It's value represents the difference between the cash S&P 500 index and the nearest futures contract of that index. This amount is then multiplied by 100.

So an S&P Premium value of 1266.00 is the same as a 12.66 point difference in the s&p cash and nearest futures.



Leigh (4/23/2000; 19:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29242)
S&P 500 Futures Premium
Sorry to ask a dumb question, but what in the world is going on with the S&P 500 Futures Premium? The MRCI chart shows that it opened at 1266.00, and that it last traded at 596.00, for a loss of -670.00. What's going on?

Trail Guide (4/23/2000; 19:08:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29241)
Reply
HI - HAT (4/23/2000; 6:05:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29203)
Trail Guide EURO
Hello. I am looking at analysus that focuses on possibility that Euro's downtrend portends value crises of this currency. It seems that all the prognostications of the dollars future are what is exactly happened to the Euro. Since its inception it has steadily lost value, and now appears at the crossroads to go down more.

This it semms is the only major currency arena where the price of gold is in a bullish uptrend. In a world already saturated with debt financed stuff, it seems any fundamental competative advantage of lower Euro, will still net out very negatively against increased costs for oil,electricity,etc., in Euroland.
-------------------------------

Hello Hi - Hat!

Good question. I'll offer in my words what was presented to me from some other people.

--------
Every time the Euro comes up in conversation someone points out the ever so obvious fact that it has fallen against the dollar. Ok, so what does this do to impact us as world players?

First: my new Euro accounts are static in Euroland and are spent there for investments if and when need be. As a international player I don't trade my dollar accounts (local US held) against these or other holding in foreign domains. To date, my real cost of acquisition in Euroland has little or no effect from the Euro / Dollar exchange rate. A myriad of other factors come into play when determining a particular investment's (Euroland) viability. Unless the industry is exposed as an importer from dollar nations the short term exchange rate means nothing. If our selected sector is export related and sells into a dollar sector, then all the better for them. Our long term success rests on the sector's ability to make an adequate return in Euros. The whole purpose is to build an asset infrastructure that will remain in the Euro realm. Not convert it back to dollars (or whatever currency) in a year or so.

Second: the costs in Europe have not gone up in any way comparable to the amount Euro / Dollar has fallen. Neither I nor anyone else (I know) are concerned with this short term condition. In fact, the lower rate is making my decision to cover dollar debt and refinance in Euro debt for me.
Especially so for anyone that is overweight in long dollar assets (working assets as opposed to investment assets) and wanting more Euroland exposure with less cost. Borrowing Euros to invest in high return financial assets (Euro carry trade) is only a trade against exchange rates and in every
way has the smaller impact on Euro value over a long run. The booming demand for Euros is swamping the ability of US to supply liquidity fast enough to cover the liquidation of dollar debt. In spite of this much examined and overweighted carry trade.

Third: ECB is right, US dollar is up because a funding crisis is drying up dollar assets faster than Fed can supply. From the looks of everyone financing here, Euro is right about where it should be in value. It's the dollar that is spiking from a crisis.

----------------

Editor note: In a broad view just look at Japan. The Yen is being driven up from a long term crisis in their economy. The same thing is only now happening in our US. The difference is that we have "the" reserve currency and our eventual response to a "Japan like" economic condition will be to super inflate the dollar. That is something our fed is doing right now to keep the dollar from going even higher.

In another view, the ECB has the Euro doing what Japan has been fighting like mad to do for many years now. That is get a major world currency down against the dollar by having the dollar driven up from "debt transition demand". No different than as my friend uses his dollar reserves to cancel out his local (US) debt to reestablish in Euros. This effect expands the Euro in a good way but eliminates dollar liquidity in a bad way. The dollar rises from a liquidity "dry up" and this forces the fed to pump. But this kind of pumping floods our shores with dollars that can only function as "hot money" (stock market trading). Not used to finance real industry infrastructure.

If the Euro is causing any pain it is doing so to traders that made long derivative bets on that currency (not invest in it). They bet on the Euro being strong and the dollar being weak. None of then grasped that the Euro would be strong as a crisis of transition made the dollar even more in demand for liquidation.

Confirmation of this is found in the US fed and Treasury using every trick in the book to pump liquidity into dollar based assets. Alan is no fool, he isn't killing the stock market because he can't right now! If the dollar was strong from all the demand media says is out there, why must we pump money during a time our trade deficit is flooding the world with dollars. If the Euro is so week, why is everyone financing in Euros at a rate that's still building?

Thanks

Trail Guide



beesting (4/23/2000; 18:25:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 29240)
Food for thought for the Silverhearts!
If someone with deep pockets, had 129,000,000 ounces of Silver safe-ly tucked away in the vaults of a bullion bank in England, couldn't that same some-one sell futures contracts in Silver they own outright thru the same bullion bank in England, in enough quantity to depress the "Spot" price of Silver worldwide and slowly buy more physical Silver at refineries and in off market transactions worldwide adding to his 129,000,000 ounces,ever so slowly so as not to draw attention to himself,and eventually create more futures contracts, and unlike the famous Hunt brothers be out of the jurisdiction of the U.S. agencies that might hinder this operation??? ....beesting.

R Powell (4/23/2000; 18:00:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29239)
Happy Easter to All
$5 Indian, good story, thanks. Some of us treasure both the trees and the lumber. It is possible to work in the sawmill and also plant trees.
**Richard 640: where do you get the S+P futures numbers on Sunday night? Thanks for the update.

beesting (4/23/2000; 17:36:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 29238)
@ Sir Lamprey_65
I agree, the U.S. Congress should be made aware of these figures, my choice to send an e-mail to is Dr. Ron Paul Congressman from Texas a known Gold advocate.Unfortunately I'm not in his Congressional District.
However, as you can see from my posts a literary giant I am not which makes me kind of squeamish about sending an e-mail.
Also I didn't keep track of the actual export figures released(bookmarks) but I think Sir TownCrier does.
Congressman Paul has a website called Freedom Watch, but I'm not sure how to e-mail him directly.....beesting.

HI - HAT (4/23/2000; 17:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 29237)
$5 Indian 29227 Pray Tell, Who Is The Prey?
I got the History lesson part on the Con-Artists, and as far as the tree goes it may very well be too old for 2x4's, so pulp mill may be next stop.

Are you saying that you disagree with Batra, meaning you think the Charade is going to go on indefintely?

HI - HAT (4/23/2000; 17:10:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29236)
Richard 640 8pts.
Just a little temperature inversion. Dow n home boys will have turkey all "cooked" up by 11 a. m. e.s.t.

You know I'm at the point where its almost fun guessing what the Rigging De Jour is going to be. The price of Silver and what its doing to the silver miners is making me sick to my stomach.

Richard640 (4/23/2000; 17:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29235)
June gold opens unch. at $281.50 (ho-hum)
http://www.usagold.com
May silver opens up a penny at $5.01&1/2-(yawn)

lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 17:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29234)
beesting
Is it not time for us to ask OUR government where the heck all this additional exported gold is coming from? They are collecting the statistics, so their not knowing the answer is not an answer I'm willing to accept.

beesting (4/23/2000; 16:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29233)
Trying to correct a mixup in numbers concerning U.S. Gold exported.
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/437?
From Bill Murphy's 437 message:
From Jan to Aug 1999 official U.S. Gold exports averaged around 220 tonnes per month:

<<Please see Sir TownCriers USAGOLD archives msg.# 29050>>

In My Humble Opinion a decimal point was missing in all the Gold figures listed in Mr. Murphy's 437 GATA message.

U.S. Gold mines are second to South Africa in annual Gold production, from Gold Fields Mineral Services:
The U.S. produced 354 tonnes of Gold in 1999.

So, lets insert a decimal point before the last diget in all the numbers in Mr. Murphys 437 message to get a slightly more accurate figure.

220 tonnes becomes 22 tonnes.
22 tonnes times 8 months = 176 tonnes(Jan.1999 to Aug.1999)
1999 total approximate amount from figures released:
176 tonnes Jan-Aug.
97.6 tonnes Sept.
40 tonnes Oct.
100.8 tonnes Nov.
78.3 tonnes Dec.
_________
492.7 Total U.S. Gold exported in 1999 the 138.7 tonne difference between 354 tonnes mined and 492.7 tonnes exported may be from melted scrap Gold and other hoards sold in 1999.

Now, lets add the amounts from Sept.(signing of Washington agreement)1999 to Feb. 2000.
Sept. 97.6 tonnes
Oct. 40 tonnes
Nov. 100.8 tonnes
Dec. 78.3 tonnes
Jan. 72.7 tonnes
Feb 92.1 tonnes
_______________
Total 481.5 tonnes in 6 months, for a projected 900 to 1000 tonne export annual total from Sept.1999 to Sept. 2000.

The questions are if the U.S. mines 354 tonnes of Gold per year and is presently exporting monthly Gold amounts at a much higher projected rate and normal domestic consumption is NOT ADDED IN TO THESE FIGURES, where is this Gold coming from and WHY are Gold prices flat???

Please see Sir TownCriers 29050 message and related messages for a much more in-debth analysis of the export figures.

One more easy way to convert dollar Gold into tonnes Gold:
Gold at $280 U.S.:
9 million dollars equals approximately ONE tonne of Gold.
Now, does everybody understand why Gold is stuck around the $280 level......Big buyers are keeping it there thru the paper exchange markets.

For What It's Worth.......beesting.

Richard640 (4/23/2000; 16:46:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29232)
Hmmm! S&P opens down 8 pts. What's cookin?
. http://www.usagold.com
S&P falls hard on 6:30 opening--anybody hear anything or are the "taxi cabs of absolute reality" merely catching up with the U.S. credit bubble?

$5 Indian (4/23/2000; 14:52:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29231)
(No Subject)
sorry for posting this twice, I didn't think it went through the first time.

Elwood (4/23/2000; 14:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29230)
Canuck (4/23/2000; 14:39:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29228)

Those export figures from Bill Murphy have been corrected. He was quoting millions of dollars instead of tonnes.

Elwood (4/23/2000; 14:47:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29229)
bp1 (4/23/2000; 13:08:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29221)
The confusion comes from the different views of what constitutes gold. If one goes to a bank and "buys gold" but accepts a certificate in lieu of physical, then have they really bought gold? The answer is no, but many view it differently. This represents the basic difference that FOA points out between the "trader gold bug" and the "physical gold advocate."

Physical gold advocates believe that there is no substitute for holding physical metal.

Trader gold bugs believe, in part, that holding a certificate is adequate because they are concerned more with the paper price of gold rather than gold's status of an item of wealth.

We see today with the increasing amount of gold being exported from the US that foreigners are more and more insisting on physical metal. This can only mean one thing: The run on the dollar has started.

Canuck (4/23/2000; 14:39:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29228)
Putting two posts together .......maybe getting an answer
From another site,
----------------------------------------------------
>From January through August 1999, official U.S. gold
exports of gold averaged around 220 tonnes per month.
In September they rose to 976 tonnes, in October 400
tonnes, in November 1008 tonnes, in December 783
tonnes, in January 727 tonnes, and February 921 tonnes.

Two to three hundred percent increases in U.S. gold
exports! Why the sudden need to pull gold from the
United States into the physical market?

The story becomes more intriguing. This gold is
reported as non-monetary gold. I spoke to almost no one
who understood that. It is GOLD COMING OUT OF THE NEW
YORK FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. It IS monetary gold, not
gold coming from mine production as one would think.
--------------------------------------------------------
You're assuming that those who accept the paper certificate for the gold maintain their view that it is the same as physical. This view is changing now. The higher level of gold exports does have historical precedence. It happened in 1930-31 and in 1970-71.

The foreign creditors, mainly European, are insisting on physical delivery leaving American banking institutions holding the paper.

All, it's history in the making, and it's happening right before our very eyes. The flight from the dollar has begun.
---------------------------------------------------------




$5 Indian (4/23/2000; 14:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 29227)
Rabbit Trails of Gold
http://www.usagold.com
A few miners walked into the sheriff's office looking a little paranoid. Sheriff says, "Whats the matter with you?" Well, we're scared. We have a few hundred pounds of gold dust and we have no place to store it with any sense of security. We were wondering if you could hire some deputies and sort of guard it for awhile. We can pay you for your help. Sheriff agrees. Sounds like this could be mutually profitable.

So the miners leave and decide to expand their mining operations. They want to buy supplies but they have no money. So they talk the store owner into accepting a promise that he can go down to the sheriff's office and take 3 ounces of gold dust anytime he wants to. "Well I need something in writing so when you guys leave and go out and get drunk that you don't change your minds." "OK so will our signatures be enough if we all agree and sign." Sure.

So the miners become well known as the store owner redeams his (gold backed promissary note)at the sheriff's office for the actual gold promised. As they go through the town every store owner wants to sell them merchandise for their promissary notes issued against physical gold held at the sheriff's office. The miners realize that no one is keeping track of how much gold has actually been promised and they haven't found any gold in months but no one in town knows this. They wonder, "Have we written more promissary notes than we have gold". Yes they have and they know it but alot of store owners are satisfied to pass the paper promise IOUs on to others because redeaming the notes for the quantities of gold involved is too risky with all the bandits around. So the miners still have good credit as long as there is a good supply of notes kept from being redeamed.

Problem is that they need to borrow alot more than they can write gold backed IOU's without creating a panic at the sheriff's office for people who realize there is an overabundance of IOU's written. They could start a faith crisis.

So they take their problem to a lawyer who refers them to a businessman from New York who retells the same story to them and how he solved the problem. "The problem is that you guys look too scrubby for any one to trust, face it you need some polish." They all agree, the mine is about to disband if they don't restore faith in all these IOU's written. The businessman proposes that they all become partners and start a bank. A big nice white marble facade with pretty tellers and a telegraph wire to the East. Wow this is great. One problem though. No one knows just how many ounces of gold have been promised by these miners. So they make a deal. With the little amount of gold they do actually have on hand they will write up Reciepts and number them associating one reciept for one ounce, and the bank promises that any miner can deposit his gold dust at the new bank and get a reciept that he can show to others proving that he really does have gold at the bank. It was like a promissary note but is now backed by a bank that looks like a bank and it's a big marble building that everyone trusts in. The miners agree it is the only solution and since there were way too many promises written on the gold at the sheriff's office they decide to default on their promises. They pay the sheriff to pay the accountant to leave town. They put a little bit of gold dust in the safe and let the rumor out that "The new bank refuses to accept the promisary notes written at the sheriff's office because the accountant ran off with the money." Big panic at the sheriff's office. Store keepers violently upset. Want to kill the miners. Poorman gets wiped out for NOT holding physical gold. The miners blame the accountant and wipe their brow hoping everyone would just take the same loss they all have and go away. Now the new bank is accepting gold dust for deposit and the back room is filling up with gold. They get a wire from New York asking how things are going. "Well we paid for all the marble out front and we are pileing up pounds of gold dust. No one ever comes in to get their dust as they only want coins and we don't have any coins hardly, so we issue bearer on demand notes. Anyone coming in can redeam these notes for gold coin but we never have enough coins so no one does." Word comes back,"Well send all that dust over to the Federal Treasury and get a receipt plus what coins you need at the mint."

So the little good mining town bank gets a receipt and enough coins to satisfy the few people who come in to redeam their notes backed by physical gold.

But the New York office sees greater potential for the small town "savers" bank. They want to make big loans at "interest". So the new accountants arrive, young and ambitious real money changers. They transfer the old managers for being "too conservative" "failing to earn enough". The miners wonder what is going on, things were fine before and their old buddy bankers got a "sudden promotion". But all goes well for now. Then the new accountants start loaning out money like crazy at low interest. The miners get way too far in debt. The bank has them sign many legal statements guaranteeing payments for the loans. The mine goes under, forced to sell out to the bank. The bank takes over the mine and has no idea how to run it. So they hire the miners back but leave the old owners out. The miners are upset without the old owners who knew how to run a mine. Union problems start up. No gold is coming out of the mine. The people start to move away. As they pull their money out of the fine marble front bank they notice how the bank has stopped issuing loans and has started demanding payments from people they used to allow time to. New York took the Federal Gold Receipts and thet got mailed back East to write loans on. The Regional Merchants Bank with the white marble front is in trouble without those receipts for physical gold that the main office wrote loans on. People are demanding the physical gold for the many years the bank was writing them. Now the regional merchants bank has become like the old sheriff's office. A run has developed into a panic. No problem if you have any physical gold you can deposit it in this new bank and these receipts are now accepted all over town. Those old notes are worthless. So the miners now bring their gold dust in and get told the same story "These coins are hard to get and too heavy to be carrying around, we can pay you interest if you leave the gold here and accept these new trustworthy gold bearer notes. These notes are really backed by gold, we are new and we aren't crooked like that last bank."

Then the store keepers are broke but able to borrow all they need with this new bank that just opened up.

That scenario is what led early economists to predict the boom bust cycles as the ocurred whether people predicted them or not. Once the big banks plundered the small country savers banks then the cycles became wider, deeper, and meaner. Panics led to depressions where all faith was wiped out as chronic unbelief set in. Gold in America was always seen as "the stuff you show people" so you can write loans on it. In Europe with so many wars going on so often the gold was "the stuff you hide for the family" and you trade with merchandise the other people need, not the gold. Gold receipts were not well trusted in Europe and people prefered payments in actual metal with a past history of banking defaults going back hundreds of years. America is a new country to this day with almost no history as 200 years is as a weekend to other culture's historys. Is our general population dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to gold..........just ask anyone, anything, anytime, even at a university. 30% of our population is sedated on drugs wether legal or illegal at ant given time, 25% cannot read this. What percent is too busy working to know the difference?

Finally the people in the US were tired of being wiped out every 15 years or so. So they voted for the Federal Goverment to issue bearer notes and at only a 1 to 1 ratio for gold on hand. So then the regional banks cried to use silver for their promissary games. So that went the same way until merchant banking was outlawed. As I see it, each solution has only extended the boom-bust cycles out to a farther point in time. The day of reckoning gets prolonged but each bust gets deeper and meaner.

I don't accept the Ravi Batra theory because we are not dealing with linear quantities. Wave theory is about just that, waves. The volume of water difference between a wave 10 ft high vs. a wave 20 ft. high is not 1:2. The thickness of the wave is so easily overlooked yet it represents a massive volumetric difference. The 20 ft wave could have 3 or 4 times the amount of water in it. Their is no mathematical economic model that can adequately describe this. I can give you a high thinned out wave 20 ft high or I can give you a solid thick 20 ft. high wave. What type of wave do you think we are dealing with here today seeing these volumes of shares and contracts churning? The top wave up since Oct is the puff that came off but it rides on a massive pre 1995 wave that has not broken. Rising interest rates may be likened to the very low water around your ankles before the wave breaks as all the water has been sucked up into the wave. This churning top of the past three weeks is the froth at the top It's only my opinion and it's right!


So the morals of the story are endless. Paper gold is quick and conveniant, safe to pass on to others, but ALWAYS goes into default with the over-extension of credit at some point in time. The reckless nature of mankind messes it up. The papergold people always argue how they can make tranactions quickly without danger of robbery, but they always feel a little shakey about the quality of what they have. It's musical chairs and they must keep their eyes on a chair to sit in at all times. Ownership risk is preferred to slowness of selling and storage risks.

The physical gold owners have no ownership risk as they know it's real and can limit their storage risks, but they know the big banks really want their gold and will try to pass laws to take it if it becomes too valuable. Paper gold is a form of trust that is written on gold the big banks say they own. Again, they always write way too many reciepts for what they actually have. With computers today all commodities markets are expanding as more people enter these casinos. A futures contract is only worth what it is redeamable in. When the Palladium futures contract says "Redeamable in cash only" then it is no longer a paladium futures contract. Same situation would occur in the gold futures casino. As the value of the dollar would fall so the value of the gold contract would fall as well while its metal value rose, leading traders to say" It's worth it now to pay storage fees to trade contracts that say "redeamable in physical gold"." Then no one wants the cash redeamable calls and the contracts fade away with the lack of demand. A reciept for gold actually matching the physical supply when held by a trustworthy bank is also physical gold as it is honestly represented. Problem is that the keepers lie.

Only the miners who hid their own gold were protected from the thieves in town and in the thieves in banks throughout their life. The lure of commerce and profits leads to the "paper gold is better" theory.

It would be likened to unlocking the power of gold, man's faith in its enduring value being put to use. With the use of computers to skim profits from small price movements papergold is popular but high risk.

The arguement of physical vs paper is the difference between the tree lovers and the lumberman. One likes nature that's beautiful honest and right. The other is tired of living in a tent and needs a 2X4. Enjoy the tree but don't worship it or condemn me for cutting one down to build you a house.
-$5 Indian

$5 Indian (4/23/2000; 14:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29226)
Rabbit Trails of Gold
http://www.usagold.com
A few miners walked into the sheriff's office looking a little paranoid. Sheriff says, "Whats the matter with you?" Well, we're scared. We have a few hundred pounds of gold dust and we have no place to store it with any sense of security. We were wondering if you could hire some deputies and sort of guard it for awhile. We can pay you for your help. Sheriff agrees. Sounds like this could be mutually profitable.

So the miners leave and decide to expand their mining operations. They want to buy supplies but they have no money. So they talk the store owner into accepting a promise that he can go down to the sheriff's office and take 3 ounces of gold dust anytime he wants to. "Well I need something in writing so when you guys leave and go out and get drunk that you don't change your minds." "OK so will our signatures be enough if we all agree and sign." Sure.

So the miners become well known as the store owner redeams his (gold backed promissary note)at the sheriff's office for the actual gold promised. As they go through the town every store owner wants to sell them merchandise for their promissary notes issued against physical gold held at the sheriff's office. The miners realize that no one is keeping track of how much gold has actually been promised and they haven't found any gold in months but no one in town knows this. They wonder, "Have we written more promissary notes than we have gold". Yes they have and they know it but alot of store owners are satisfied to pass the paper promise IOUs on to others because redeaming the notes for the quantities of gold involved is too risky with all the bandits around. So the miners still have good credit as long as there is a good supply of notes kept from being redeamed.

Problem is that they need to borrow alot more than they can write gold backed IOU's without creating a panic at the sheriff's office for people who realize there is an overabundance of IOU's written. They could start a faith crisis.

So they take their problem to a lawyer who refers them to a businessman from New York who retells the same story to them and how he solved the problem. "The problem is that you guys look too scrubby for any one to trust, face it you need some polish." They all agree, the mine is about to disband if they don't restore faith in all these IOU's written. The businessman proposes that they all become partners and start a bank. A big nice white marble facade with pretty tellers and a telegraph wire to the East. Wow this is great. One problem though. No one knows just how many ounces of gold have been promised by these miners. So they make a deal. With the little amount of gold they do actually have on hand they will write up Reciepts and number them associating one reciept for one ounce, and the bank promises that any miner can deposit his gold dust at the new bank and get a reciept that he can show to others proving that he really does have gold at the bank. It was like a promissary note but is now backed by a bank that looks like a bank and it's a big marble building that everyone trusts in. The miners agree it is the only solution and since there were way too many promises written on the gold at the sheriff's office they decide to default on their promises. They pay the sheriff to pay the accountant to leave town. They put a little bit of gold dust in the safe and let the rumor out that "The new bank refuses to accept the promisary notes written at the sheriff's office because the accountant ran off with the money." Big panic at the sheriff's office. Store keepers violently upset. Want to kill the miners. Poorman gets wiped out for NOT holding physical gold. The miners blame the accountant and wipe their brow hoping everyone would just take the same loss they all have and go away. Now the new bank is accepting gold dust for deposit and the back room is filling up with gold. They get a wire from New York asking how things are going. "Well we paid for all the marble out front and we are pileing up pounds of gold dust. No one ever comes in to get their dust as they only want coins and we don't have any coins hardly, so we issue bearer on demand notes. Anyone coming in can redeam these notes for gold coin but we never have enough coins so no one does." Word comes back,"Well send all that dust over to the Federal Treasury and get a receipt plus what coins you need at the mint."

So the little good mining town bank gets a receipt and enough coins to satisfy the few people who come in to redeam their notes backed by physical gold.

But the New York office sees greater potential for the small town "savers" bank. They want to make big loans at "interest". So the new accountants arrive, young and ambitious real money changers. They transfer the old managers for being "too conservative" "failing to earn enough". The miners wonder what is going on, things were fine before and their old buddy bankers got a "sudden promotion". But all goes well for now. Then the new accountants start loaning out money like crazy at low interest. The miners get way too far in debt. The bank has them sign many legal statements guaranteeing payments for the loans. The mine goes under, forced to sell out to the bank. The bank takes over the mine and has no idea how to run it. So they hire the miners back but leave the old owners out. The miners are upset without the old owners who knew how to run a mine. Union problems start up. No gold is coming out of the mine. The people start to move away. As they pull their money out of the fine marble front bank they notice how the bank has stopped issuing loans and has started demanding payments from people they used to allow time to. New York took the Federal Gold Receipts and thet got mailed back East to write loans on. The Regional Merchants Bank with the white marble front is in trouble without those receipts for physical gold that the main office wrote loans on. People are demanding the physical gold for the many years the bank was writing them. Now the regional merchants bank has become like the old sheriff's office. A run has developed into a panic. No problem if you have any physical gold you can deposit it in this new bank and these receipts are now accepted all over town. Those old notes are worthless. So the miners now bring their gold dust in and get told the same story "These coins are hard to get and too heavy to be carrying around, we can pay you interest if you leave the gold here and accept these new trustworthy gold bearer notes. These notes are really backed by gold, we are new and we aren't crooked like that last bank."

Then the store keepers are broke but able to borrow all they need with this new bank that just opened up.

That scenario is what led early economists to predict the boom bust cycles as the ocurred whether people predicted them or not. Once the big banks plundered the small country savers banks then the cycles became wider, deeper, and meaner. Panics led to depressions where all faith was wiped out as chronic unbelief set in. Gold in America was always seen as "the stuff you show people" so you can write loans on it. In Europe with so many wars going on so often the gold was "the stuff you hide for the family" and you trade with merchandise the other people need, not the gold. Gold receipts were not well trusted in Europe and people prefered payments in actual metal with a past history of banking defaults going back hundreds of years. America is a new country to this day with almost no history as 200 years is as a weekend to other culture's historys. Is our general population dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to gold..........just ask anyone, anything, anytime, even at a university. 30% of our population is sedated on drugs wether legal or illegal at ant given time, 25% cannot read this. What percent is too busy working to know the difference?

Finally the people in the US were tired of being wiped out every 15 years or so. So they voted for the Federal Goverment to issue bearer notes and at only a 1 to 1 ratio for gold on hand. So then the regional banks cried to use silver for their promissary games. So that went the same way until merchant banking was outlawed. As I see it, each solution has only extended the boom-bust cycles out to a farther point in time. The day of reckoning gets prolonged but each bust gets deeper and meaner.

I don't accept the Ravi Batra theory because we are not dealing with linear quantities. Wave theory is about just that, waves. The volume of water difference between a wave 10 ft high vs. a wave 20 ft. high is not 1:2. The thickness of the wave is so easily overlooked yet it represents a massive volumetric difference. The 20 ft wave could have 3 or 4 times the amount of water in it. Their is no mathematical economic model that can adequately describe this. I can give you a high thinned out wave 20 ft high or I can give you a solid thick 20 ft. high wave. What type of wave do you think we are dealing with here today seeing these volumes of shares and contracts churning? The top wave up since Oct is the puff that came off but it rides on a massive pre 1995 wave that has not broken. Rising interest rates may be likened to the very low water around your ankles before the wave breaks as all the water has been sucked up into the wave. This churning top of the past three weeks is the froth at the top It's only my opinion and it's right!


So the morals of the story are endless. Paper gold is quick and conveniant, safe to pass on to others, but ALWAYS goes into default with the over-extension of credit at some point in time. The reckless nature of mankind messes it up. The papergold people always argue how they can make tranactions quickly without danger of robbery, but they always feel a little shakey about the quality of what they have. It's musical chairs and they must keep their eyes on a chair to sit in at all times. Ownership risk is preferred to slowness of selling and storage risks.

The physical gold owners have no ownership risk as they know it's real and can limit their storage risks, but they know the big banks really want their gold and will try to pass laws to take it if it becomes too valuable. Paper gold is a form of trust that is written on gold the big banks say they own. Again, they always write way too many reciepts for what they actually have. With computers today all commodities markets are expanding as more people enter these casinos. A futures contract is only worth what it is redeamable in. When the Palladium futures contract says "Redeamable in cash only" then it is no longer a paladium futures contract. Same situation would occur in the gold futures casino. As the value of the dollar would fall so the value of the gold contract would fall as well while its metal value rose, leading traders to say" It's worth it now to pay storage fees to trade contracts that say "redeamable in physical gold"." Then no one wants the cash redeamable calls and the contracts fade away with the lack of demand. A reciept for gold actually matching the physical supply when held by a trustworthy bank is also physical gold as it is honestly represented. Problem is that the keepers lie.

Only the miners who hid their own gold were protected from the thieves in town and in the thieves in banks throughout their life. The lure of commerce and profits leads to the "paper gold is better" theory.

It would be likened to unlocking the power of gold, man's faith in its enduring value being put to use. With the use of computers to skim profits from small price movements papergold is popular but high risk.

The arguement of physical vs paper is the difference between the tree lovers and the lumberman. One likes nature that's beautiful honest and right. The other is tired of living in a tent and needs a 2X4. Enjoy the tree but don't worship it or condemn me for cutting one down to build you a house.
-$5 Indian

Elwood (4/23/2000; 14:30:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29225)
Puts and Calls
Puts and Calls on commodity futures are rights and obligations to enter futures contracts. That is, if I buy a put I have the right, but not the obligation, to enter into a futures contract to sell.

If the futures have been "force majeured" into cash settlement then I will be relieved of my obligation to deliver physical and can settle with cash paper.

Calls deal with the buy side. If I purchase a call then I have the right, but not the obligation, to enter into a futures contract to buy at the strike price. Again, if the market has gone to cash settlement then I will be unable to call for physical delivery.

Historical note: Options contracts were invented during the tulip mania of the 1630's as a way of increasing leverage.

lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 13:55:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29224)
Peter Asher
Very true...a written put gives the OBLIGATION to purchase physical at the price of the contract and a put purchased (long put) allows the RIGHT to sell physical. My fault for switching to two in my example, but the end result is the same....

Paper prices too far below true supply and demand will bring about a storm of written puts sold...and therefore physical gold still changes hands. Today's narrow range market actually keeps speculators from buying calls or puts...lack of momentum is the death knell for speculators.





Peter Asher (4/23/2000; 13:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 29223)
Lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 9:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29217)
Re --
>>> Puts give the buyer the right, but not the obligation,
to buy the lot at a set price. So, for instance, if COMEX prices fell to $249.50, a June 250 Put
would be "in the money" and Goldman Sachs would STILL have to ante up the gold.<<<

That's what a CALL does. A put gives the holder the right to SELL at the strike price. The writer of the Put is obligated to pay that price to the holder even though the current market price is lower. (The holder has the right to "Put" the gold to the writer at strike.) The fact is that Puts actually have a braking effect on a falling market because they force the writers to be new buyers (If in the money at expiry).

However, if the Put writers, who probably wrote mostly against margin credit, don't have the money in hand; then you have the defaults and that would be our "Burning of Paper Gold!"

beesting (4/23/2000; 13:09:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 29222)
Follow up on beesting msg. 29219.
http://www.bis.org/about/index.htm
From the BIS Website: Click profile of The BIS.

The Bis now has two offices:
Centralbahnplatz 2, Basel, Switzerland.

8th floor,Citibank Tower,3,Garden Road,Central Hong Kong.
Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China.

The Gold Franc of the BIS has a Gold weight of just over 0.29 Grams of fine Gold, etc. etc.
The BIS employs the Gold Franc solely as a unit of account for balance sheet purposes, assets and liabilities in U.S. dollars being converted into Gold Francs at the FIXED RATE of U.S. $208.00 per ounce of fine Gold(approximately equivalent to 1 Gold Franc = U.S.$1.94) and all other items in currencies BEING CONVERTED INTO GOLD FRANCS ON THE BASIS OF MARKET RATES AGAINST THE U.S. DOLLAR!!

....beesting.



bp1 (4/23/2000; 13:08:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29221)
Confused!
http://www.usagold.com
To All:

After reading and digesting TG's analysis ( God knows, for how many times!), some questions arise:

TG's main point ( or hypothesis ) is that the parties with vested interests of keeping the paper gold price down are supplying vast supplies of paper gold to the market ( COMEX,LBMA ), and not enough real goldbugs (physical gold advocators) are pressing for delivery. Therefore, the scheme can go on and on, until a major reserve currency collapses ( my interpretation of Trail Guide, sorry if not accurate ).

But according to many numbers, yearly physical gold demand outstrips the supply by roughly 1000 tons. Also according to consensus here in this forum, all the CB's net gold selling in the last several years are minimal. So where is all this stealthy, but PHYSICAL gold coming from? Are all the buyers of physical gold ( Taiwan, China, India...and big players in the know ) are told not to purchase physical gold from COMEX,LBMA but through other channels in order to support the big scheme?

oldgold (4/23/2000; 12:45:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 29220)
The Euro
US stock market saved and gold trashed by a collapsing Euro. Those on this thread who have said again and again that the Euro was preparing to challenge the dollar for global supremacy could not have been more wrong.

Time for a little self criticism perhaps.

http://www.jonesheward.com/commentary.cfm

beesting (4/23/2000; 11:57:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29219)
Julia # 29208-Are there any websites that show Gold's price in all world currencies?
http://quote.yahoo.com/m3?u
Here is another website but beware some of the quotes are inverted.

Which brings us back to square one! Are these conversion rates accurate? Can they be manipulated?

According to information gathered here(USAGOLD archives) the BIS sets a Gold dollar value in(BIS)Gold Francs, therefore if using dollars as a base currency set to a fixed amount of Gold at the Bank for International Settlements, the world is on a Gold standard. However only top CB bankers and Goldhearts know this.....see some of Sir ORO's and FOA/Trail Guides past works.
.....beesting.

TheStranger (4/23/2000; 11:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29218)
Price Pressures Growing
It's only fitting that Nasdaq's biggest one-day drop ever occurred Apri 14th, the day the CPI "shocked" Wall Street. (Of course, we cognoscenti here at the Forum had discussed the inflation which was coming months before the fact). Now, some who never saw inflation's approach are trying to tell us it will be nipped in the bud by a combination of higher interest rates and a chastened OPEC. Don't you believe them.

Oil prices are still double what they were a year ago, and the ripple effects across the economy are only now showing up in the so-called "core rate". Meanwhile, the Fed's policy of allowing money growth on the one hand, while tepidly raising interest rates on the other, has been in place for over 6 months and is just as big a failure as we said it would be. Consider this: Last week, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 257,000 from a revised 266,000 the week before. The four-week moving average of claims, which generally provides a more accurate picture of jobless trends, was reported at 262,500, the lowest since 256,000 was reported in December, 1973!!! And in 1973, another period of growing inflation, BTW, the economy was much smaller than it is today.

Only pure inertia has restrained wages to this point. Soon, wage demands will bust loose, and hard-pressed employers will have little choice but to concede to the demands of their workers.

Meanwhile, inflation has in the past acted upon the stock market like kryptonite. Just witness the 1970s. Today's investor need only ask, where will all that IRA money be going next?

lamprey_65 (4/23/2000; 9:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29217)
The Paper Gold Market
After thinking on this issue yesterday, I have to say that there seems to be some confusion about what is happening in the gold paper markets and what is likely to happen in the future.

As manipulated as the paper markets are, they CANNOT go to zero...in reality, they can't even go too far below where alternative distribution sources are priced or where demand in general becomes too great. Why not? It's called a put. Puts give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy the lot at a set price. So, for instance, if COMEX prices fell to $249.50, a June 250 Put would be "in the money" and Goldman Sachs would STILL have to anty up the gold.

Two conclusions can be drawn here...first, it's obvious that alternate distribution systems are not yet significant or are not pricing gold significantly above the current paper price...if they were, you could buy gold through puts and sell on the alternative market at a tidy profit. The second conclusion is that Goldman Sachs and crew should be trying to keep the paper price within a narrow range in order to protect against both calls AND puts. Well, that's exactly what is happening...$280 or so on the downside and $290 on the upside. This is the only real way they can hope to protect calls currently written without creating too many IMMEDIATE problems with the puts they are selling.

Lamprey

Peter Asher (4/23/2000; 8:51:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29216)
Bonedaddy
Was it Carlin or one of his compatriots that't said "You Can't have everything. Where would you put it?

Cage Rattler (4/23/2000; 8:46:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 29215)
Gold in different currencies
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html
Set the base currency to "Gold Ounce" and you can choose any target currency. If you want to plot more than one simultaneously, hold down the CTRL key while selecting your target currencies.

Black Blade (4/23/2000; 8:40:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29214)
Bonedaddy and storage
Maybe if you keep gold in a large gun safe that is buried under all that "stuff" in one of those storage units, then when the Storm Troopers come to your home, they don't find anything. Just use an assumed name and address for the rental and keep paid up in advance. Booby traps are a nice fashion statement as well ;-)

RossL (4/23/2000; 8:23:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 29213)
Julia
http://www.the-privateer.com/g-quote.html

The Privateer has a web page that calculates the worth of various currencies in gold.


Bonedaddy (4/23/2000; 8:22:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29212)
The ubiquitous mini-storage!
(What does this pile of garbage tell us?)
The wilderness is full of sights and noises. Tracks tell the story of events that transpired while no one was there to hear the sound of that falling tree everyone wonders about. Modern men rely almost soley on packaged news, caring very little to deciper the tracks all around them to tell them the true story. Despite all the camping gear, we don't get to the widnerss much.
Has anyone noticed the explosion in construction of mini-storage units? Taken by itself, this one sign would lead one to believe that times are prosperous. But, given a negative 2% rate of savings, why is everyone caught up in the exercise of buying things they obviously don't have much use for?
If the goods are not needed, why not give them away?
Why pay $60 per month to keep a bunch of stuff four miles from home? I drive past these places. They are usually deserted. Occasionally one will glimpse sight of someone unloading a moving van, but there aren't that many people moving. Mostly it is just rented storage for things we had to have, and now don't have room for. They have to be stored now because there is no longer space at home. The space has been allocated to more new stuff we had to have. It reminds me of the bit Geore Carlin used to do about having so much "Stuff". It was funny then. Now it seems sad. I am rarely amazed anymore. We really have gotton that far off of the path.
How much stuff per capita, do you suppose we Americans have sitting in rented mini-storage units? Just sitting there, molding, while we go out and work like men possessed, so we can buy more. If we really had the good sense to store our wealth, we would sell all that garbage, pocket the rent, and buy GOLD! Which, by the way, is much easier to store.
I guess there is one tactical advantage to mini-storage. It should keep the looters out of the residential neighborhoods for a few days. I hope nobody reading this has any extra food or ammo stored in one of these joints. Go through the list. What will you need if there is an emergency? Go get that stuff, today. Keep it close at hand. Sell the rest and buy gold real soon. (Put it in the freezer, inside a fish frozen in a block of ice.)

Black Blade (4/23/2000; 8:01:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 29211)
Bonedaddy and RossL
Someone once said concerning the apathy of the people in Nazi Germany:

They came for thee,
They came for me,
and they came for you behind the tree.

I have friends who have moved to Lake Chapala, Mexico, and others who went to Costa Rica, and Belize. They went for retirement and tax purposes, maybe they are on to something!


RossL (4/23/2000; 7:46:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 29210)
Black Blade

According to their online poll, the vast majority of MSNBC web page readers believe it is OK for the government to kick in doors and point automatic weapons at people.

It may be time to begin preparations on living arrangements outside the USA.


Bonedaddy (4/23/2000; 7:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 29209)
Blade, speaking of the Chinese...
I believe to was Chairman Mao who said, "Power doesn't come from the people, it comes from the muzzle of a gun."


Julia (4/23/2000; 7:41:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29208)
Ari? Trail Guide? Michael? Oro? Aragorn? Town Crier? Knights? Ladies?
Are there any websites that show gold's price in all world currencies? Or can anyone quote Friday's gold prices, for example, comparatively in the world currencies?

I'm wondering if the comparison will show gold higher in other countries' currencies compared to the American price in dollars. And alongside the price of gold across the world, I'm wondering if another comparison of the world currencies themselves, will show a correlation between a rise or fall in a particular country's currency rate and the rise and fall in their local price of gold.

If America is dumping other currencies and buying their own dollar to push the dollar higher and to punish countries for the Washington Agreement by making the currencies of those countries fall and the dollar rise, then
it seems that it would reflect in the comparisons above or maybe in comparing these prices to bond prices???? I'm not sure what comparisons would show what I'm looking for.

It also seems to me that America is taking the BIS bait, hook, line and sinker so in the end America will hold nothing but their debt-filled dollars which seems like the workings of the old proverb, "And you will reap what you sow."

I wonder how America can be so blind. Or is it helpless to stop it's inevitable bankrupcy? Isn't it kind of like the American Civil War Confederacy buying up Confederate dollars trying to punish the Federals at the end of the war?

From what I gather from the thoughts so freely given here, this process cannot be stopped and can only be manipulated for a while longer before it's time "to pay the Piper."

I don't fully understand how America manipulates their price of gold. Do they sell their gold at 9:00 AM in New York everyday to get the price down? Or do they buy lots of dollars and make the currency rate rise so no one will panic and buy gold???

Just wondering......
Thank you.
Julia


Black Blade (4/23/2000; 7:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29207)
Is Your Physical Gold Really Safe?
http://www.msnbc.com/news/398444.asp
The Chinese say that a picture is worth a thousand words. 131 Feds (storm troopers) without a warrant burst into a home and terrorize the occupants. What will happen if they decide your property is really theirs? "Warrant? Warrant? We don't need no Stinkin' Warrant!!!"

RossL (4/23/2000; 7:10:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 29206)
Murphy's numbers
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/437?

It looks like there is an error in the stated amount of gold exported. Murphy is claiming a fantastic high number of tonnes exported, where the numbers are really dollar figures.


HI - HAT (4/23/2000; 7:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29205)
ORO
Cayman Islands could be the one. Has a lot going for it. Check it out if you have not already done so. :-)

HI - HAT (4/23/2000; 6:41:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29204)
Raise The Bet
This is only my opinion. Price action in Newmont could portend that they are going to be the first to get the aquisition-consolidation band-wagon going. Time has come for the big outfits to acquire cheap reserves. Subtle action in Battle-Mountain may mean it is going to be one of the first to "go". Barrick in keeping with their grandstanding manipulating are probably going to pull off something spectacular. Big pigs eat first.

I still stand by my prediction of several weeks ago, that if big paper gold market manipulators take gold down into all new low prices, it will unleash an organic turmoil to the very foundations of what is wealth.

HI - HAT (4/23/2000; 6:05:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29203)
Trail Guide EURO
Hello. I am looking at analysus that focuses on possibility that Euro's downtrend portends value crises of this currency. It seems that all the prognostications of the dollars future are what is exactly happened to the Euro. Since its inception it has steadily lost value, and now appears at the crossroads to go down more.

This it semms is the only major currency arena where the price of gold is in a bullish uptrend. In a world already saturated with debt financed stuff, it seems any fundamental competative advantage of lower Euro, will still net out very negatively against increased costs for oil,electricity,etc., in Euroland.

Can you give any insights into the market dynamics that are at work right now that are constantly weakening the Euro?
Thankyou for any reply.

totalamateur (4/23/2000; 4:27:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29202)
(No Subject)
"THE MONEY EXPLODES!"

I HAD THIS DREAM just now, and it scared me so it woke me up! We were at the grocer's trying to buy a can of soup, and you asked the man, "How much is this?" He said, "That'll be three pounds." I said "three pounds!--For a can of soup!" He said "That's the price today, and you better take it or leave it, Buddy! For there's no telling what it's going to be tomorrow!" So we paid him three pounds and walked out stunned!

I DON'T KNOW WHAT HAPPENED IN BETWEEN, but we must have decided we should leave the country because of the monetary situation. A can of soup for three pounds! So the next thing I knew we were at the railway station trying to buy a ticket, and I was asking him for a return ticket, a round-trip ticket.

"I'M SORRY, WE'RE ONLY SELLING ONE-WAY TICKETS," he said. "We have no idea what the return fare would be later. I wouldn't care if you were returning this weekend, I wouldn't sell you a return ticket because I have no idea what the price will be by then. All we're selling is one-way tickets, and we have no idea what the price will be on returns. We'll sell you a one-way ticket at what it is today, and that's it! And that's for your fare today only. It's got to be used today. We've no idea what the prices are going to be tomorrow!"

SO EVIDENTLY WE DECIDED TO GO TO THE BANK and take our money out-what little we had--for due to this skyrocketing inflation its value was being lost so rapidly, and we were apparently going to leave the country.

ON THE WAY TO THE BANK we stopped to watch this train go by. It was leaving the station and picking up speed as it left, at first starting to roll real slowly and then faster and faster, till soon it was just flying! I didn't understand at first what that meant, but I realise now I was thinking, "It's symbolic of how once the thing starts rolling, the inflation really gets going, it really flies!"

THE POUND'S LOST 10% OF ITS VALUE IN THE PAST WEEK! But it wasn't even in the headlines! Isn't that peculiar? It's down to the lowest it's ever been, now, and the dollar is up the highest it's ever been!--I've got something on that too in a minute.

SO THEN AS WE PASSED ON WE WERE GOING THROUGH THIS JUNKYARD of old scrap iron, and I looked at these piles of old scrap iron on both sides and said, "My, if you can imagine, it's not just the price of gold that's skyrocketing, but even old scrap metal like this is going to be worth a fortune!"

WE GOT TO THE BANK AND THE BANK WAS JUST PACKED WITH PEOPLE standing in long queues at each window waiting to do the same thing, to get their money out. I must have figured I could get quicker action by going to see the manager, and I wouldn't have to stand in the queues, so I went through this door into the manager's office.

IT WAS A DOOR YOU PUSH IN LIKE SOME OF THESE ONE-WAY DOORS do, and it slammed shut behind me. I turned around and I looked at it and thought, "That's funny!" I pushed on it and it wouldn't open, for it just opened inwardly, but it wouldn't open outwardly, and there was no handle on the inside so there was no way I could open the door from the inside. I thought, "My Lord this is just like a trap! I'm trapped in this bank!"

THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN THE WHOLE BUILDING BEGAN TO SHRINK! I thought, "My God, this thing is going to crush us all!" The bank was literally shrivelling, crushing, and the walls were beginning to close in on us! But suddenly there came this voice from above: "Don't worry! The Green Pig is about to explode and it'll blow the bank to bits!" (See "Green Paper Pig," posted earlier on USAGold) And I woke up--Boom! Just like that! It was like a nightmare!

I THOUGHT, "LORD WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?" Then suddenly there dawned on me something I told you before: When those big business financiers, were releasing the Green Pig to chase us down the Jordan Valley, remember it was just a little thing at first? But as it raced down the Jericho road and then down the Jordan it got bigger and bigger and bigger just like a big balloon, till by the time it got almost to us it was like one of those big blimps--a huge parade balloon!

OF COURSE! WHAT DOES THAT SYMBOLISE?--AN INFLATION of the Dollar value! The Green Paper Pig was inflating and getting bigger and bigger and bigger all the time, until suddenly it burst! You understand?--The "Green Paper Pig is about to explode and will blow the bank to bits!"--The monetary system is about to explode and cause the capitalistic financial system to collapse!

BUT I WAS SO SCARED of whatever it was, the idea of the bank blowing up didn't seem to appeal to me much more than the bank collapsing on me! The voice said, "Don't worry! The Green Pig is about to explode and blow the bank to bits!" It seemed the voice came out of the sky like an angel.

WHEN THE GREEN PIG EXPLODED, THAT WAS A SUDDEN INFLATIONARY EXPLOSION OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM!--And what happens?--What followed?--It collapsed!--In total deflation! See? That's a deflation: It just collapsed! Then I was thinking, "I wonder if that has anything to do with the comet and the 40 Days and the destruction of America?"

IMMEDIATELY I SAW THE PRICE OF THE DOLLAR GROWING and growing: The Dollar, the green Dollar, the Green Pig, is literally inflating right now very rapidly. But I was thinking, "Lord, how come America seems to be coming out on the best side of the deal, and the dollar's going up in value? If You're about to destroy America, how come the Dollar's going up?" Well it's inflating, so of course it's going up!

IT'S GOT TO INFLATE BEFORE IT CAN EXPLODE! It would be funny if the Lord destroyed America through its greedy god, the Dollar! There might be an earthquake or bombs or heaven knows what, and it could be that too. But the dollar is definitely inflating and it's got to eventually explode!--And boy, if anything would ever destroy America, that would be it!--And of course it would also destroy the whole world monetary system which is based on that Green Pig! (My comment: today there's a replacement ready to take over and already taking over – the Euro!)

"DON'T WORRY! THE GREEN PIG'S ABOUT TO EXPLODE and it'll blow the bank to bits!" In other words, that is obviously symbolic of an inflation that's so bad that it finally just absolutely explodes and collapses the whole monetary system, and the bank must represent the financial system the banking system and so on. If this happens, it will literally blow the whole world banking system, its financial system, to absolute bits!

IT'LL BE A TOTAL WORLD COLLAPSE OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM which is built on that stupid Paper Pig! See! Isn't that ridiculous? If that little Pig inflates to that point where it explodes, it's going to literally blow their whole monetary and financial systems to bits! If the monetary system explodes, it will literally destroy the financial system. The bank must represent the financial system.

THAT'S WHERE I WOKE UP, and I was thinking, "How come the poor pound has gone down, down, down, and the Dollar's going up?" The answer came to me as clear as anything: It's the Dollar that really has to explode! It will be so inflated in value that it finally explodes! See? The pound has actually gone down in value, which in a way is safer for the pound, believe it or not, than to be inflated like the Dollar is right now. But boy, our friends better get their money into gold or they're going to be sorry!

THEN IT CAME TO ME as plain as anything: "Well, what do you think is doing it? Why is the Dollar inflating?"--This is what's doing it: They are selling out their European currencies and buying Dollars instead! The banking interests apparently are buying Dollars and dumping pounds and European money deliberately to try to hurt England and Europe for the stand they took on the Mideast! So they're dumping their European currencies and buying Dollars to favour their friend America and punish Europe!

THIS FULFILLS EXACTLY WHAT THE LORD SHOWED ME about what they were doing in that dream about the Green Paper Pig! They're releasing the Green Paper Pig and causing it to inflate, you see?--The Dollar! (Maria: But it's their pig.) Yes, it is their pig, but apparently they thought they could control it.

THEY NEVER DREAMED IT WAS GOING TO GO SO FAR, see? They thought it was going to scare hell out of us and cause us some kind of damage. But instead of that I just pointed my finger at it and it went "Poof"! Boom! Exploded! And that was it! They never expected in to inflate to the point that it was going to absolutely explode and be totally destroyed!

THEY REALLY UNLEASHED THAT GREEN PIG ON THE EUROPEANS, SEE?--Because what were we doing in the Green Pig dream?--Europe was crossing the Jordan of decision and the Dead Sea of death to the Dollar to the side of the Arabs in that dream! The Green Dollar Pig is the weapon they are using against the Europeans for siding with the Arabs for oil!

THEY ARE UNLEASHING THIS DOLLAR INFLATION WEAPON against the Arabs and their friends!--You get it? That would include Britain and Europe, whose currencies are going down in relation to the Dollar. The Dollar is expanding, inflating, going up in price, whereas European currencies are going down.

BECAUSE THEY ARE DUMPING THEIR EUROPEAN CURRENCIES AND BUYING DOLLARS! They have precipitated this monetary crisis deliberately, see? That's why the international monetary fund and all those big money boys, the Council of 20 and Council of Ten, etc., have gotten together several times lately to try to agree on a monetary policy, but they flatly refuse--they can't agree on it. The only reason they can't agree is that they don't want to agree!

THOSE WHO CONTROL THEIR PORTION OF THE MONEY which is tremendous, their big banking interests don't want to stop it. They're using the inflation of the Dollar to try to destroy their enemies, including pro-Arab Europe! They know how much money those Arabs have got invested in Europe, and they are trying to destroy not only the Arabs but the Arabs' friends, which would include Europe and Britain.

BUT THE INFLATION WHICH THEY HAVE PRECIPITATED WILL GET OUT OF HAND AND THE DOLLAR WILL EXPLODE AND BE TOTALLY DESTROYED INSTEAD! Instead of becoming a monster that was going to frighten and devour their enemies, when I pointed at it, it exploded!

SO THE DOLLAR IS INFLATING LIKE MAD RIGHT NOW, and when it gets to that point that it explodes, the whole world monetary system will collapse!--And the bankers and capitalists will be left sitting on their stacks of bank notes which will be worthless!

ANOTHER THING WHICH SHOULD HAVE BEEN HEADLINES IN THE PAPER YESTERDAY WAS THE PRICE OF GOLD: It's up to nearly $140 an ounce, the highest it has ever been in history! There wasn't one word in the paper about the fact that the pound had sunk another 10% in a week and that gold had gone up almost another 10%! This shows the Dollar is really not all that valuable, but only better than other currencies. So it began to dawn on me what all this meant, or what it could mean: The soon explosion of the Pig!

THEN I SUDDENLY REMEMBERED THE NEWS THAT RUSSIA HAD JUST ANNOUNCED SHE'S GOING TO CARRY ON ROCKET TESTS in the North Pacific and warned shipping to stay out of the area. I wonder if that has any connection? What could that mean? Why should she be warning shipping to stay out of that area right now, which is near Siberia and Alaska?

WHAT IF RUSSIA WERE PLANNING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION, knowing somehow that America's monetary system was about to collapse and therefore weaken the whole country? If the Dollar collapsed America would absolutely collapse! When she collapsed financially, she'd be in a state of absolute chaos!

THAT WOULD BE THE SMARTEST THING IN THE WORLD TO DO, TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AMERICA IN A STATE OF COLLAPSE and absolute chaos for an invasion! The logical way for Russia to invade, of course, the way that Americans have always been afraid she was going to invade, is the shortest possible route right through Siberia right across the Bering Straits into Alaska and down. Now that's quite possibly what Russia has in mind!

BUT HOW COULD THAT AFFECT THE MIDEAST? Well of course, dying America in its last desperate death struggles, what would it do? What was causing it to collapse? If her money had collapsed and she was out oil, what would become the only valuables in the world?

IF AMERICA'S WHOLE SYSTEM WAS COLLAPSING AND SUDDENLY GOLD AND OIL HAVE BECOME THE ONLY THINGS THAT ARE WORTH ANYTHING, the only commodities with standards of value and usefulness, what would the Americans do as a last act of desperation? Dying America would do what?

AMERICA WOULD TRY TO ATTACK THE ARAB COUNTRIES AND GRAB THE OIL AND THE GOLD! Whatever super power possesses and controls those Arab countries would have all the oil and they'd have most of the gold too, and they would have what would be the most valuable things in the world at a time of crisis like that!

SO THE EXPLOSION OF THE GREEN PIG, THE MONETARY SYSTEM, COULD CAUSE THE MIDEAST TO EXPLODE. I have always theorised that it was because of the Arab defeat that they were the ones who would get desperate and start doing the shooting. But the reason we saw the Arabs in our vision doing the shooting could be because they realised or had intelligence that America was about to attack, so they just started attacking first, and then everybody started shooting because they were all prepared for it anyhow.

40 DAYS! 40 DAYS, BY THE WAY, IS THE TIME ALLOTTED FOR THE ISRAELI DISENGAGEMENT FROM THE EGYPTIANS. 40 Days! Russia is smart enough to see what's happening or about to happen--and, who knows, she may even be helping to engineer it! Russia has long sought to engineer the collapse of the capitalistic system. What better way to help the collapse of the capitalistic system than to explode its monetary system and its banking system, its whole financial system?

SO THE RUSSIANS MAY BE GOING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION TO ATTACK A WEAKENED AMERICA. What a perfect preparation for any proposed rocket attack on America! The Money Explodes! The Dollar Explodes! Inflation Explodes!--And War Explodes!

THE LORD APPARENTLY GAVE ME THE DREAM TO WARN US THAT THE PIG IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE and is going to destroy the monetary system and with it the financial system, and with it virtually the whole capitalistic system; and Russia is probably preparing to take advantage of situation to destroy America.

AMERICA IN ITS LAST DYING DESPERATE HOURS IN VERY LIKELY GOING TO EXPLODE IN THE MIDEAST and try to grab the oil and the gold to save herself. As a result, America and Russia would be going to war and destroying each other, which would work out just like we have seen it before.

THEN CHINA, EUROPE AND THE POOR NATIONS OF THE THIRD WORLD COULD TAKE OVER: THAT'S THE HAPPY ENDING! So praise the Lord! Boy I tell you, we are without excuse! The Lord has warned us so much!


The above letter was written January 24, 1974 by Father David. I don't know how many people saw it this way back then! There is a tremendous correlation between what has been said on the forum lately and what we find in this letter written 26 years ago. God likes to give us early warning! The time is getting shorter!

You guys, this one must be worthy of the hall of fame, especially considering it was written in 1974!




Aristotle (4/23/2000; 1:49:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29201)
Solomon Weaver and ThaiGold--haven't we been here before??
Solomon Weaver, your comment--
"I see no value in the stock of Amazon.com, but there has been a lot of "value" created by the "fear" that Amazon struck in the hearts of the mainstream retailers. I think that we will continue to find that many of the most important companies in new areas will be companies like Netscape, Amazon, E-Bay, etc. that have almost no "profits" but have a massive impact on the state and evolution in the cyber economy...thus, for a brief time, they DO justify a market-cap, even without a PE (due to no earnings)."

As Clint Eastwood would say, "That's a high price to pay for being stylish."

On your interpretation of "What is money?," I loved your effort in pursuing the answer to the question, but if I may find any exception with your approach it is that you endeavored to actually ANSWER the question and to define money itself for the benefit of the pupil. Can enlightenment be so easily attained as swallowing a pill crafted by the efforts of another? Hence the simple elegance in my tale--the student attains enlightenment not on being told what money is, but rather upon the realization that the answer given is ABSOLUTE TRUTH, and further, that "the answer lies within."

ThaiGold, thanks for the comment--
"Have a nice Holiday, Master Aristotle, and May the Bunny Bring You more Golden (nest)Eggs."

Allow me to pass along the timely warning I received from my sister--"Beware some of the black "jellybeans" left by the Easter Bunny.

With that, I've got to rest up in preparation of a large family gathering for dinner later this fine day.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Elwood (4/23/2000; 0:49:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 29200)
Here's a trick
A friend of mine told me about this a few days ago. It might fit in with Trail Guide's trader gold bug vs physical gold advocate.

Here's the deal.

At times the premiums for VF grade $20 Liberty coins and higher grade Double Eagles are very close to the spot price of gold. At other times their premiums are somewhat higher. Today I believe the premiums are in the higher category.

A person could buy regular bullion coins now and wait until the premiums over spot for Libs and DEs fall. When the premiums for the older coins are closer to the spot price he could trade the bullion coins for the older coins.

Then when the premium rises, trade back out of the older coins to the newer coins and have "interest" paid by getting more bullion coins. In this way the gold investor is earning interest by having his pot of gold grow without additional cash outlay.

Does doing this make a person a TGB or a PGA?



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