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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/22/2004
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Aristotle (12/22/04; 23:59:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 127639)
B-man
"US oil inventories slightly better than expected and ...bannngggg...and look at the leveraged huge reactions.
POO minus 5%, within minutes ............ Easy money must dictate easy gold.
Just like the US oil-inventories are dictating the POO for the whole world !!! Do you see the analogy ?"


Brilliant.

Gold. Got me a personal standard of wealth. --- Ari

Belgian (12/22/04; 23:35:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 127638)
@Ari
Your post is, again, positively contrasting with the "nose on the windshield" yada from the Panizzuttis and bulliondesks.

It is again an illustration of the difference between those few that have developped a "vision" on gold and those many that prefer to remain deliberately trapped into the great gold management sheme. It is a systemic thing.

Reading those daily goldreports + prognosises, permanently provoke goldmetal aversion and encourages the classic paper-gold action.

Illustration of the main difference between easy (paper)gold and hard (metal)gold. Let's call it the big public perception machine full of blatant inconsistencies and Pavlov elements.

The EU economy is a lame duck and euro succes is a lucky side effect. The US economy is the most vital one and the dollar weakness is a temporary adjustment !? Profit from this temporary anomaly with leveraged paper-gold !

This modern world is hooked on second per second actions obtained by constant carpet bombing of moving perceptions.
There is no time, for the general public, to let them develop a vision . The perfect delusional (deceptive) psy-tool.
That's what the derivative industry is developed for.

US oil inventories slightly better than expected and ...bannngggg...and look at the leveraged huge reactions.
POO minus 5%, within minutes and 150,000 tonnes of aboveground gold priced minus 1% and tonnes of paper that appreciate in virtual price. Pointing the absurdity of this ...is as pissing in the holy house.

But, indeed Ari...as you rightly pointed in your post...there "is" a gold "vision" ! And the recent decission on German gold is important, because it is undoubtly related to the architected "new" gold vision or more precisely, the coming new gold-market. Gold will not dance its rock and roll for ever. Its dollar dancing partner is aging ! And in these modern times, admitting age, is socio-politico incorrect. Let's continue to behave foolishly...looks young and dynamic. Gold is sclerotic.
Indeed Ari, there is also a big psychological effect that comes with the German gold decission. They aren't selling 8 tonnes of paper gold-claims, but goldmetal for private property. This happens in "old" new Euroland...the continent that is percepted as the biggest gold-seller !

But the daily gold-reporters keep projecting goldprices à la carte ! Easy money must dictate easy gold.
Just like the US oil-inventories are dictating the POO for the whole world !!! Do you see the analogy ?

I am questioning the rapid increasing dollar dictatorship.
A bit late of course, because others have done this, long before I even realized that this dictatorship even existed.
They even architected the answer/solution to the dollar dictatorship. May I therefor refer to Liu's views and insights ?

The denial that there exists a new future for gold is the biggest mistake that goldphiles are making. A/FOA explained how they evolved from the classic hard-money adepts to freegold realists. Today's financial absurdities, illustrate why freegold "is" the only workable solution.
Freegolders do ignore the totally insignificant daily goldreports. Remember the Rotshield's statement of leaving the (paper)gold business for what it is...?
Is $-papergold still intact or already an anachronism !?
Smile Ari. Thanks.




Black Blade (12/22/04; 21:30:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 127637)
Today's Gold Quotes:

"With a bundle of data out tomorrow, there are still plenty of opportunities for price moves," said James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com. "But, as a whole, the current $435-444 range should provide ample trading opportunities, with the prospect of 'safe-haven' positioning ahead of the Christmas holiday continuing to limit downside risk."

Prices will likely continue to perform "positively" next year, said Frederic Panizzutti, senior vice president at MKS Finance in Geneva. He expects prices to reach a high of $480 and a low of $390 in 2005, pegging the average for the year at $430. "Further U.S. dollar weakness in the first half of the year should act as a catalyst helping gold to reach its year high at around $480 an ounce," he said. "The impact of the weaker U.S. dollar over several months in [the first half of the year] could contribute in reducing the U.S. trading deficit and result in a U.S. dollar trend reversal in the second half of the year," he warned. That would in turn pressure gold lower -- well below the year's start level, he said. But in any case, gold will continue to play its "reconfirmed role as a safe haven in case of [an] unexpected event affecting financial markets," he said. And "the now broader and more diversified buying interest for physical and non-physical products shall contribute to the longer-term trend stability."


Black Blade: Trade has slowed as traders sprint for the exits to enjoy the holidays. Trading was rather thin and will likely be sluggish till after year-end. Meanwhile the US Dollar is still under some pressure and will remain so as the Trade, Current Account, and Budget deficits keep a lid on the US currency for several months (if not years). There also exists the potential for further geopolitical unrest – take your pick – Iraq, Afghanistan, India-Pakistani conflict, the North Korea nuclear question, renewed terrorism in the west and Israel, etc. etc. etc.

As for myself I will take a bit of a rest and head for the slopes starting tomorrow. So have a safe and a "Golden" Merry Christmas.



Gandalf the White (12/22/04; 21:01:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 127636)
LAST TRY at the US$ Chart ---- LINK ! HELP TC !!!!
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
THIRD time is the CHARM !
GOOD NIGHT !
<;-)

Gandalf the White (12/22/04; 20:58:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 127635)
OOPS -- WRONG LINK !
YGM (12/22/04; 18:25:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 127633)
DARN you YGM !
ROFL

Gandalf the White (12/22/04; 20:57:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 127634)
WOWSERS !!!! -- The BOTTOM just fell out of the US$ !!
YGM (12/22/04; 18:25:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 127633)
LOOK QUICK at the LINK, as the YELLOW is now going to FLY !
<;-)

Cometose (12/22/04; 18:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 127632)
Art : painting
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GCG05&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=MACD%2812%2C26%2C9%29%3BVOI%281%2C1%29%3B
I think this work is very artistic and worthy of
recognition. I'm so looking forward........................

Goldendome (12/22/04; 17:10:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 127631)
Federal Reserve's-- Debt collapse.
In regards to your earlier post-

Federal Reserves: I like your scenario and won't argue with it! Permit me, however, to add just a couple of more points--expand if you will.

The Japanese have not only bought our bonds with the money from goods that they have shipped us, but have freely inflated their own currency out of thin air and sold it to the markets, in attempts to drive the yen down against the dollar to keep the price structure intact. (Hopefully, I understand this correctly from past readings.

Now, they have a big new market to the west (China) and are therefore not so concerned as before with shipping goods east to the U.S.; though of course they will do so as possible.

We, the U.S., now find ourselves in a position where our largest creditor no longer is quite so concerned with the yen/dollar relationship and are not even as concerned with us as a customer, as they look to China for market share.

Looking away from the care it [Japan] has past shown for the U.S.dollar, debt market, and all that they have helped create and prolong here, will also possibly facilitate stress in the U.S. debt markets. The U.S., as you correctly point out, may need to dramatically increase the interest rates if the Japanese attention continues to be directed elsewhere.

TownCrier (12/22/04; 16:14:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 127630)
HEADLINE: Government Officer Confirms Deposits of Gold
http://allafrica.com/stories/200412220668.html
(The East African Standard) December 22, 2004 -- Kakamega District is endowed with massive gold deposits, which will start to be mined in large scale soon, a senior Government officer said yesterday.

Western Provincial Geology and Mines Officer Moses Masibo said the recent discovery of major gold deposits at a village in Ikolomani division was only a tip of the iceberg about the true situation of the mineral in the district. (...He added that Busia and Mt Elgon also have huge deposits of iron ore and gemstones, which are also found in Ikolomani.)

"The government may soon license a company to start mining the gold," Masibo added.

The village has become a beehive of activity. Gold merchants from all over the country are now to be found in the area buying the gold from locals at Sh700 per gram. A gold merchant from Kisumu Ms Rapat Khan said there is enough gold in the area but would need proper exploitation.

The DC assured the residents of adequate security and advised them to use the money they earn wisely.

He, however, warned them to take safety precautions to avert accidents that are common during mining.

-----(from url)----

To strike a good mental balance, I offer this food for thought: consider a headline that says:
'U.S. Federal Reserve officer confirms deposits of govt bonds'

And consider that the spokesman further went on to say the current supply of bonds were only the tip of the iceberg, that warehouses were loaded with paper and ink, and the government can at any time start the presses rolling.

Further, imagine he cautioned against accidents in the pressroom and offered to make the money available as digital credits within bank accounts, urging recipients to use their money wisely.

Can you see a parallel? However, there is a very important FUNDAMENTAL difference between the validating struggle for tangible gold wealth in the first example versus the immaterial inflation of the money (debt) supply in the second example.

Choose gold.

R.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (12/22/04; 15:51:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 127629)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

U.S. gold futures closed with slight losses on Wednesday in trade muted by the holiday-shortened week. Estimated volume amounted to a sleepy 25,000 contracts.

The markets seemed to lack energy as traders merely squared away positions before year-end, tracking currencies and shrugging off a stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP report in the morning.

"With a bundle of data out tomorrow, there are still plenty of opportunities for price moves," said James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com. "But, as a whole, the current $435-444 range should provide ample trading opportunities, with the prospect of 'safe-haven' positioning ahead of the Christmas holiday continuing to limit downside risk."

February gold futures fell $1.50 to conclude at $441.40 after trading from $444.20 to $440.10.

Gold, often viewed as a store of value for investors, has risen sharply this year on a weak dollar and economic and geopolitical uncertainty. February futures hit a 16-year high of $458.70 on Dec. 2.

The metal could top $500 in 2005, analysts have said, as the euro is seen advancing toward $1.50, and gold's positive fundamentals like lower mine production, fewer central bank sales, and less hedging from miners, also could lend support, they said.

On the data front, markets were looking for inspiration from data due Thursday on U.S. jobless claims, durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment and new home sales.

----(see url for 24-hr newswire)----

Federal_Reserves (12/22/04; 12:13:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 127628)
Bond collapse?
Just a thought.

Folks pretty much realize Japan/China is keeping our rates low with their purchases of bonds, we buy their products (exports) and they buy our bonds (imports), this radical new form of global trade balancing/financing game continues on like a perpetual motion machine.

But wait, lets say the US consumer cutbacks sudden like for some reason (maybe exhaustion) , and stops buying so much from Asia, the money flowing their direction is reduced or stunted and consquently there is less money to float back into our bonds. Then because we are running a huge deficit in supposedly good times, we have no ability to fund the difference with our own surplus and bonds collapse as rates spike to attract capital. As they collapse, the foreigners to save their own skins, dump more bonds in masse! The higher yields in the bonds, pull money from stocks. The whole system goes into reversal.

Aristotle (12/22/04; 12:04:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 127627)
968 -- questions
When you ask the question about Europe establishing larger quotas and then not making obvious use of it, and then you wonder what may have changed the amount of Gold redistribution requirements since the March announcements, maybe you need to have a view of this more like a politician.

By that I mean you should try to consider how out of character it is for Central Banks organize a high-profile agreement like this to unnecessarily constrain their lattitude for action.

Imagine a more natural scenario where a public agreement wasn't organized. As sure as the fact that those Banks are still trying to accomplish something to set a better stage for the euro, you can be sure that they would still be using their Gold in the same predestined manner -- lubricating wheels and winning confidences of allies.

The fact is, they will reallocate up to but not over 500 tonnes a year, just like they told us; but they'd have done it pretty much just the same whether they told us the upper limits with a formal Agreement or not.

So the Announcement itself really all comes down to a political play for massaging a preferred public perception, wouldn't you think? Managing the associated perception is what it's all about. Obviously they wanted a **PRICE-SUPPORTIVE** calmness to prevail in the market, preferring that rather than price-disruptive uncertainty stemming from un-informed opinions as they interpret the application of a little Grease by wrongly imagining that the CB-Gold-selling floodgates have been opened.

To put this in a nutshell, the Announcement was political and was made to massage a price-supportive environment of understanding. And to the extent that we are given unclear or winding maps for understanding their follow-through action under the original Agreement, we should simply sense that as a fine-tuning of the original massage. But you can be sure they're still working toward the original objective to Grease the wheels and set the stage. The strength of the euro architecture is unquestionably founded on derivative-free physical Gold, and "Free Gold" is what we shall have. Anything short of that would just be the same old tired unworkable dollar -- and we're not so silly that we'll work this hard just to repeat fresh mistakes.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Belgian (12/22/04; 11:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 127626)
@986
Maybe you should link your two latest posts together...the question and the answer ? Pure speculation of course...or not... !?

600 Tonnes...what can the EU do...???

Russia is going to pay its debt to Germany. Windfall income(s) ? R/G joint ventures in gas and pipelines. Maybe a hidden participation in Yukos ?

Bear in mind that "oil" is still *TESTING* the US ($) and the EU (euro) ! Goldsales mean very little without the prospect of freegold ! Think deep about this one, Sir.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/22/04; 11:00:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 127625)
SECOND EDITION: Newly Updated -- Written for Today's Market!
http://www.abcs-of-gold-investing.com/





968 (12/22/04; 09:29:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 127624)
@ Belgian message 127615
I was asking myself why create the E-CBGA (in March this year), with higher quota's, and then make no full use of it just 9 months later ???
Why took the Buba an option of 600 tonnes (120 tonnes a year), and made no use of it ?
What is changed in between that this amount of gold doens't need to be redistributed ??
More questions then answers.

968 (12/22/04; 09:01:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 127623)
@ Belgian
Well, that might be part the present US-policy. Keep on supporting the dollar OR we will stop playing policeman around the globe and...put the world on fire. Nothing Europe can do about that.

Belgian (12/22/04; 07:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 127622)
@986
Whilst reading your post of Arnaud the nobleman, I was watching (listening) BBC reporting on Tony in Israel (ME).
I'm seriously worried that Arnaud's theoretical picture is as gloomy as the reality might become. And I still consider myself as a realistic optimist.

Now, I'm pondering how gold will evolve under such an eventual avalanche of earthquakes...WW-III ?
Maybe that a new gold-regime can prevent further atrocities and turmoil...or is it exactly the opposite !? I mean...keep supporting the dollar or we set fire on the world ? It's Christmas, no.
Anyway, a merry Christmas to all. B.


Goldendome (12/22/04; 07:24:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 127621)
stock market and Social Security
BoilerMaker: Lots of talk recently about Soc. Sec. reform. Could the stock mark. be anticipating future increased flows into it? "Buying the rumor" as it's called?


968 (12/22/04; 06:01:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 127620)
Coming geopolitical quakes
http://www.washingtontimes.com/commentary/20041214-090259-5700r.htm
SNIP :
The U.S. can prevail conventionally anywhere but seems helpless in coping with asymmetrical warfare.
In quick succession:
• The dollar ceases to be the world's reserve currency.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Article in the Washington Times of 19/12/2004 by Arnaud de Borchgrave.
Worth a read.

Boilermaker (12/22/04; 05:33:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 127619)
Link for last post
http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$VIX
Link above

Boilermaker (12/22/04; 05:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 127618)
Levitating Stock Market
The recent relentless rise of the US Stock Market is astonishing in view of the soft economy, consumer debt, government budget deficits, balance of trade, energy prices, rising inflation, insider selling, a war turned very ugly, etc,etc,etc.
Complacency rules the markets. The VIX index at the link above shows record low volitility and complacency. "Investors" must all be taking anti-depressants or stupid pills. For the most part the financial community keeps the soothing music playing while the endlessly marching investors do not notice that many chairs have disappeared, the smart players have left the building and the exit doors are being locked up. Like cattle being driven to market, the end of the trail is an unhappy place. Greed and stupidity rule the day. There will be hell to pay when this party's over.

Topaz (12/22/04; 02:11:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 127617)
The "essence" of Deflation ...
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOW
...is such that Monetary/Fiscal control measures are completely neutered by uncontrollable market driven forces.
The Dollar/Gold charts suggest we're again close to an "event" that will define our future for quite some time.

Take care fellow GoldHearts and enjoy a Happy and Safe Christmas.

Caradoc (12/22/04; 01:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 127616)
Top two at Fannie Mae ousted
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4116903.stm
Look for a repeat of last year's Freddie Mac fiasco where $4 billion of booked profits disappeared in smoke.

Snips:
"...America's second largest financial institution...
extensive accounting errors... admonished by the Securities and Exchange Commission... major errors in its financial reporting... violated accounting rules relating to derivatives... have to raise substantial new capital to restore its balance sheet."

So, the clowns who source half the US's home mortgages will be hiring two new clowns to stand out front. They're not there yet, but the oversight bureaucrats are already speaking reassuringly of "a new culture and a new direction."

Hope you're all properly reassured.

Caradoc




Belgian (12/22/04; 00:21:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 127615)
Funny...
That WAG I / II has been replaced by E-CBGA (European Central Bank Gold Agreement). The question why the UK was not a subscriber of WAGII anymore, remains still unanswered. Does the answer, matters ? Or have they placed enough gold in commitment in the euro house under the BIS umbrella...for later !? A safe play, indeed.

Euronext bidding for LSE ! Soon, the city will deal in...euro.

Belgian (12/22/04; 00:08:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 127614)
Gold sales
Now that w're going into the sixth year of the so called official goldsales, made public,...it remains quite extraordinary that all these gold insiders remain blind, deaf and dumb about the "destination" AND purpose of the travelling gold ! And the classic goldbugs don't bother asking themselves...because they never were interested in the "metal" anyway. Unfortunate mistake.

This in sharp contrast with the sales of declining dollars. Here we are daily reminded about wich (asian) states are adding dollars to their reserves (grateful dollar supporters). But we know very little about who are the permanent dollar sellers. And suspicions about the relentless dollar expansion must be associated with economic growth optimism, organized by the one and only engine of the world, he US and its US$ .

In other very simple words ...we can conclude that the dollar is in a gigantic "self-defense" mode.

Under such circumstances, one can easely understand the extreme importance of the decades' long bottom-support-line of dollar-index = 80 !!!
Add the gold-redistribution to this dollar maginot line and it must become clear that the dollar's "reserve" utility is in the balance. That's why it must remain absolutely vague, who the gold-receivers exactly are. And "don't" you ever dare to associate gold with oil in one way or another. Luckely that there are no gold statistics on Saudi Arabia or a few other black wealth holders/owners.
Idem dito for Japan, the world's wealthiest savers (TRILLIONS) ! How much gold is allowed to flow into Japan !? Very little statistics available. Remember the housewife's brief kilo-gold episode ?

Why is it that Japan as biggest dollar reserve holder, is not (should not) imitate China in adding gold to its reserves !? Obvious answer of course. USTB are incompatible with gold.

But it is also very easy to understand that any redistribution of official (CB+private) goldmetal (or commitments) has certain limits...especially when the unloading + accumulation of the dollar gets dis-orderly.

That's why each comment (report) on a weakening dollar must always be finalized with dollar-optimism for a vague future period. The dollar will recover (rise) from its temporary adjustive weakness ! This optimism will become much less credible when the dollar-index slips into uncharted territory under 80.

The more the dollar loses credibility into the open...the more dollars will be produced as an act of exhasperation !
This process will feed on itself and nobody wishes to be blaimed for this, whilst knowing very well it will happen.

That's why the dollar keeps on insisting that the ECB should cut its interest rates, whilst turning a blind eye to the policies of their UK-"pound" ally. BTW, note that UK houseprices are plunging and the UK consumer has reached and crossed the Trillion mark in debt ! The easy money mantra and presented as economic miracle, the AA way.

The billions of Asian working ants are not going to remain responsible for what is trumpeted as global price-deflation ! Watch the coming hyper-infla when the NDX goes under the 80 waterline. The ants will not like the sweet dollar-sugar anymore. They will feed on yellow metal.





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